I Know a lot of the times when you're listening to me, you're like Matt do you always bring up the fact that you're not a fortune teller that you don't have a crystal ball and over the weekend I was thinking how can I change that I know a lot of you come here and then you leave in a haste of anger because you're like I only listen to people who can't tell me the future who have a crystal ball. So I figured, why not? Uh, give a shot at it. What? I want to show you is right here to understand what I'm about to explain to you. I First need to explain what Tdom is.

Trading Day of the Month. Is it the first training day of the month? The second trading day of the month? The third trading day of the month. The reason you have to use Tdom or Tdoi training day of the year or whatever is. that's how you normalize data over many years of trading.

So for example, we're in 2023 right now if you believe in the Gregorian calendar. But it's not like every single trading month or whatever year starts like. Sometimes we start on January 1st, sometimes we start on the second. Sometimes it's a Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday or Friday So that's how you normalize everything.

You just count how many trading days in the year there are and in the month there are. So if you're looking at the first trading day of the month, that's how you normalize the data across various years so you don't have to worry if it's like a Friday or if there's a holiday or things like that, you just look at the first training day of the month, the second trading day, the third trading day. I Hope that makes sense. Now what I did here? This is the platform I use it's called build Alpha to analyze all this seasonal trading and I Wanted to point out something very very interesting I Found right here and it involves Wednesday It involves Wednesday It involves Wednesday Let me simulate that and basically here is all the data and then what we're going to be looking at is right here.

and the major thing you need to know about is right here. look at this: Equity curve. This Equity curve is the most simple strategy ever. the most simple strategy ever.

and I'll put it just here. Let me block out all this other stuff so it's not confusing. All you have to do is look at the highlighted part. So I'm testing this on the S P 500 futures.

Market Uh, so the overall market futures market so it is applicable to the Spy it is applicable to the whatever to SPX anything. This is the S P 500. They're all highly related, just in different forms. Future Spy: SPX Pretty much the same thing.

This is the equity curve of taking this trade over from 1998 until now. that's your Equity curve on the Futures Market if you took this one simple seasonal trade, you would be up over 10 grand. You could also see from right here that the accuracy of this is 84. I.

Know it's really small so you might need to zoom in, but this hits. Out of over the past 25 years, this has hit 84 of the time That is extraordinary The Profit Factor is almost six that's coming in at 5.94 and then the sharp is 0.5 That could be a little bit improved, but overall when it loses, it loses small and most of the time 84 percent of the time it is winning. So that's the stats on the strategy. Now you're probably wondering okay, what is it? How do you get in? How do you get out? What is it? So the entry to this: the rules to get into this are right here.

It has to be Trading Day of the Month 17. Trading Day of the Month 7 19. Well, we're on 16 right now. If you look at it.

Um, basically this month is really easy because Monday May 1st was a Monday So it's really easy. We're now on the fourth week, so 5, 10, 15. today is 16. So that means tomorrow is the 17th day that is the trigger.

So basically if today is trading Day of the month 17, which happens to be tomorrow, you get in on the next open. As in you get in on the market open Wednesday This Wednesday That would be the entry. As soon as the Market opens on Wednesday you would go long and now the question is, how do you get out. You get out when one of two things happens.

Whatever one happens. first, you either hold it for two full days as in you hold it all Wednesday all of Thursday or you get out if you're after your first profitable close. So let's say you get in on Wednesday and from Wednesday open to Wednesday close, the market goes up. You would get out on the very next open.

So either your first profitable open or you hold it for two days. That's it. So once again, just to go back here. This strategy based on seasonality has an 84 hit rate.

It has returned over ten thousand dollars. And it's as simple as getting in on the opening of the market on the 18th trading day of May which happens to be when the Market opens this Wednesday and then you get out after your first profitable close. Or you hold it for two days. That's it.

Whichever one happens first and then you get out. and this is it all proven with fancy schmancy. Mac Uh, so that's the strategy and it's super basic. It's just valid for this month.

it's just for the month of May 84 hit rate and the profit Factor 5.94 So does it win every single time? No, it doesn't win every single time. It wins 84 percent of the time which are really good odds. Way way better than the normal 50 50. So I'm curious to see how this one will play out this particular year.

You can't make any guarantee, but I can tell tell you. based on just how things have played out over the past two and a half decades, this has been a very, very favorable thing to do. And once again, this is for the overall: Market This is for the S P 500. If you want to see what this looks like for the NASDAQ here, I'll show you on the NASDAQ This is how it looks in the tech sector.

Simulate. Simulate. simulate simulate simulate simulate. Uh, so it's actually even better in the NASDAQ.

So right here. Uh, the profit Factor Way larger 11.5 The previous one was six, so almost double the profit. Factor But the win percentage slightly dropped to 78. And then here is what the equity curve looks like.

So in the past two years it just put back to back massive massive wins. But once again, this NASDAQ data doesn't go as far back as the S P 500. So instead of testing it on 25 years worth of data, this is testing it on 23 years worth of data. Once again, the win percentage is 78 The Profit Factor is a extremely extremely High Eleven point five percent and this is just on the NASDAQ So it does even better in the tech sector.

And what is the? the average winning trade was 1.2 K The average losing trade was only 380 and this one trade just in the month of May has almost returned 20 000. Just 20 like 20 000 and it's just one trade out of the entire year. It's just saying: Get In When the Market opens on the 18th trading day of the month of May That's all It is. Every single 18th day Trading day.

That is not just May 18th the actual 18th trading day. Get In When the Market opens you. This one's a little bit different, actually. excuse me.

This one is holding for two days holding for two days. you get in when the Market opens on Wednesday, you hold all of Wednesday, you hold all Thursday and then you get out either at Thursday at close or Friday at open, it's kind of up to you. Um, uh, it would change the stats slightly, but just ever so slightly. So even better in the NASDAQ.

So I just wanted to share that with all of you because uh, hey, let's see if we can start predicting the future. So I am making a call out right now that it is net advantageous. Uh, obviously over a series of time I'm I'm making no guarantees for this particular May Um, but if you took that trade over and over and over again, you'd probably be net profitable.