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Ep 102 stocks crypto: the calm before the storm dumb money w/ matt – Matt Kohrs

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Stocks & Crypto: The Calm Before The Storm
Dumb Money w/ Matt Ep. 102
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Kenny cause we're holding on forty life, getting them tended so soon, don't be mistaken. The apes won't be shaking or breaking because we're going to the monday very soon gon na wake up on the moon brand new yacht and the mcdonald's in my living room, bright, yellow, lamborghini, 50 meter swimming pool champagne every day, fam what you do wan na hang One or two, oh you got imagine two. Oh that's right, held on tight jack titties every night. We was in way back when they tried to chop it down to had enough of these feelings, but the eggs were rebelling cause.

We never be selling until we sent it to heaven. Now we be out of yelling, hey screw, you kenny to share with the boyfriend, but i pull up in the bands played saying olive cranes going on an airplane. Don't think we'll be back again celebrating every day like it's, your birthday cause we're holding or breaking, because we're going to the moon, screw candy cause we're holding off or breaking because we're going to move today's expectation, probably more manipulation. If you do, a creation of a crooked operation bought more while it was low, got more dips and trader joe's.

Oh, you thought that we'd let go what the hell you take us for on bananas, allah living in squalor. We don't claim to be scholars. We, the smooth brain dummies and we never stood totally yeah. We do this for love and we do this for our honor.

A follower of living ain't got nothing on us. We the planet of the apes anymore, as we call us neil h, strong gon na keep holding on because we're holding our foot in life getting them teddy. So soon don't be mistaken. The ace won't be shaking no breaking because we're going to don't be mistaken.

The ace won't be shaking or breaking because we're going to next town - hello, hello, hello, happy tuesday morning afternoon evening, night, whatever it is for you, but i hope you're having an absolutely fantastic october 12th. We got ta talk about, what's going on and really, as you saw from the title of this, it's the overall vibe of today to get everyone like really centered on what to expect for the day at least coming into it. The futures are currently flat and i think a lot of people are a lot of people are just waiting on the outside and trying to understand. What's gon na happen next uh right now, i would say the main thing truly is what's going on with the debt ceiling, we are expecting some comments from nancy pelosi, the speaker of the house today, so we might get some movement on that.

It already passed. The senate and the president has already mentioned that it wants. The house of representatives passes it. He will also pass it as of now.

The current thing on the table is for them to kind of kick the can down until december 3rd. A lot of people waiting on that remember. The government had off yesterday because the columbus day indigenous people's day, whatever you want to call it they had off because of that. So today it we're back into the the political play of the situation.

So we are waiting on that and on top of it a little bit, let me just get the exact number for you mark it. So in reference to what we have with the evergrand situation. Just so you know, gamestop is now the most mentioned ticker on wall street bets as of this morning. So when this happened really yesterday we saw a nice movement so uh.

I i think that's some exciting news for jimmy, but um. Yes, okay, so for evergrand, reportedly missed two different bond payments worth up to 148 million dollars, so evergrand uh. Obviously that's a big bond payment for just to pay on that interest. Uh very very interesting there, but it does seem as if the evergrand situation in more of a generic sense is having less and less of an impact on the overall market, especially in the us, as we just move on like day after day.

I think people it's just not getting as much attention people are paying attention to it less so to me, the main thing really driving. What's going on right now, it's relating to the us government, the the political gridlock and more of the debt ceiling issue, but just to get us all set up for the day imf cuts, global growth, forecast, setting supply disruptions of and the pandemic. This seems very very similar to what goldman just came out with over the weekend uh when theirs was in more reference to consumer spending, but their models over predicted how quickly consumer spending would come back. So it seems like we have different well-respected organizations cutting their.

I guess their rebound prediction: their the growth, the global growth. But anyway, let's talk about uh, the five main things you need to know before the bell goes: ding ding, ding. In about 30 minutes wall street looks to avoid a three-session losing streak. So this is uh a couple of the things we were talking about, but remember you probably in the mornings hear me talk about this, so we know that the yield bond yields are going up and this is having a more sort of a negative impact on high Growth stocks think of those big tech stocks, especially the etf, the q's, the qqq.

So when you're in this scenario of high yield but and the yield is continuing to go up - and you also have more of a choppy market to me, i would interpret that to be. People are once again, probably rightfully so worried about inflation. Inflation is definitely something to consider, and on top of that i mean some news. Outlets are starting to report it as an energy crisis.

Uh crude oil is still above 80 a barrel, so you're throwing that into the mix, and you have an interesting scenario now. I'm not here for doomsday or anything, but there are, let's call it headwinds currently facing the market, but also remember for this particular week. We have a lot of big banks, all reporting their earnings, so it'll be interesting to see how they do performance in an overperformance, underperformance, so kind of uh pay attention to all the major banks that are reporting this week. Obviously, pay attention to oil and really pay attention to what's going on with the yield and how it's impacting certain large tech equities.

We already spoke about this house to vote on the short-term debt ceiling, so the main takeaway you need to know from this is nancy. Pelosi is set to speak today, they're, i believe they are actually voting today. So hopefully we get some positive news related to the house and we know if it passes the house. The president has already said that he will pass it.

This is just um, not an official fix to the problem. This is kicking the can down the road till december 3rd and from there basically they're just saying: hey, let's raise the ceiling by 480 billion dollars. Let's get us to december 3rd and try to figure it out. There southwest airlines cancels dozens of more flights southwest which trades under the ticker luv scrapped 87 flights for about two percent of tuesday's schedule after cancelling 2200 since saturday, most of which were on sunday, there was speculation.

This weekend's disruptions were driven by excessive workers. Sick calls tied to covet vaccine mandates southwest said, that's inaccurate and unfounded um. This seems very, very weird uh to me and just because, if you look into the twitter sphere of things, it's almost they're saying this is exactly the problem is because of this quote: unquote, sickout. So i think it's interesting that southwest is trying to like back down and say no, it's inaccurate, unfounded, like that's their own quotes uh.

I i don't see like what the issue there is just saying the truth of the situation, but i just wanted to bring this up that, like something very weird, is going on with southwest right now, and it seems like the the leadership team is coming up and Saying something that is very opposite of what the employees and also the patrons of that airline are saying of like no. No like it's down like right here, i could see all these employers are just not going to work so a big disconnection there and i don't know if any of you listening have recently tried to fly, and maybe you have a little bit more insight into the Southwest uh debacle right now, but um we're seeing two very, very different stories of what is or isn't going on. Gop texas, governor, prohibits covid vaccine mandates, and this is the republican governor, uh greg abbott. This is his quote.

The coven 19 vaccine is safe, effective and our best defense against the virus, but should remain voluntary and never forced. I know this particular thing is a very touchy subject. I just i'm sharing it with you. This is by no means my own opinions.

I implore everyone out there to do their own research to do their own dd, as always, i'm just explaining what is going on in the news and it's in no way representative of my own personal opinions. But if you're in texas, it does seem like the concept of a mandated vaccine is literally outlawed. Now, jaime the ceo of jp morgan yesterday said that bitcoin is worthless. Uh.

I talked about this in my update video. It's interesting here's this quote. I personally think that bitcoin is worthless, but i don't want to be a spokesman for that. I don't care, it makes no difference to me.

I don't think you should smoke cigarettes either uh, it's crazy and in fact he actually went on and had even more like absurd comments. Uh. He is something about. So we know that bitcoin they're gon na mine to a total of 21 million, and he he's like how do we know that? Has anyone seen the code like he was skeptical of the code that is open source and me being the petty person that i am.

I went to the open source code looked at bitcoin right there, you can see it. It's a constant 21 mil. It's like we know. What's gon na happen, this guy, obviously successful.

You don't become the ceo of jp morgan without knowing a thing or two uh, vastly influential vastly powerful vastly wealthy. But it's also to me. This is just reminiscent of commentary of a person who made money in the the previous stage of technology and is clearly not adapting with the times uh the comments on it, uh, comparing just what being a bitcoin investor as the same as i guess, smoking cigarettes and Then, being dubious of the code, which is open source and for those of you who aren't coders open source, just means that you could go check it right now. If you want to the the code, is not hidden behind uh, like a secret veil of secrecy or anything like that, um, it's it's out there.

You can see it. You can double check it. Thousands hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people, have looked at the bitcoin code, it's all out there, it it blows my mind and how? How has this research team not just looked into this me like whoa? What did you just say like we know like some of these comments? Um it's absurd. This is a person in a very powerful position and, to just say things like that of.

Like has anyone looked into the code that is uh? I think that's a dangerous way to yield your power um, obviously he's not a fan of crypto for whatever reason, but the reason i'm not just here to say, hang on this is like an old guy who has missed the the change in technology. There's a very legitimate art like economic argument, that it's a it functions as digital gold, and this kind of ties back to the first thing we were talking about with inflation, of one great way to battle inflation, to retain the value of your money is to not Be in usd it's to go to gold and right now this is the first time with the explosion in technology that we don't have like physical gold. We also have digital gold, i.e, bitcoin to me, i'm in bitcoin, i'm a bitcoin bull, i'm in it. I i don't hide that from anyone, but i i just find it weird that people with such power in such a position could come out and say such a ludicrous statement.

Uh, i don't get it, and so, if you are out there and you're like okay, no, i i see this argument. I've seen gas prices going up. I see at all prices going up. I was just seeing coffees going up um, like literally all of your just most common goods like there's all these metrics, that you can look at they're, going up up up to me this.

This argument that the federal reserve is trying to place on the u.s public that this inflation is transitory. I personally don't buy it uh. So for me, if i don't think that inflation is transitory and i think it's here and it could be a problem if you want to retain the value of your usd well. If the dollar is going to get hit, you got to park some of your money somewhere else uh, just so you're, not completely eaten alive by inflation.

So for me yeah i mean some of my retirement portfolio, my long-term retirement portfolio. Some of it is in gold, but more of it more of my personal money in terms of long-term stuff isn't bitcoin relative to my gold. Just because it's digital gold, it's a property, you can own, it has scarcity and it has value. It has clear value and it's obviously not the same as smoking cigarettes uh speaking a little bit about crypto crypto is now taking a breather ethereum dipping a little bit solana dipping a little bit sheep dipping a little bit uh.

We have hex dipping a little bit. We have doge dipping a little bit. In fact, the only one that's really holding right now is bitcoin itself, uh, it's holding out at 57 000.. I'm still my resistance level that i'm paying attention to is 59 500.

So i think it has another two two and a half grand in it uh, but other cryptos currently taking a breather, but that's okay. I mean all of them ripped it. This is just a nice classical technical breather like there's no name to panic. It's it's! The same thing that we always talk about calm cool collected for me crypto, is a long-term investment.

I don't actively trade it really ever. I've never actively traded crypto. I just buy it on weakness and watch like sit back with a smile on my face during the rips. Another thing i do want to say about crypto, though, is trending.

This morning is, i think, sheba is trending once again, yeah right here, uh all coins and shiba inu. So right now when, when you have an asset class uh and a specific one, that is being driven by a social media presence presence like a very strong social media community, when you start to see it trend again that that becomes very, very interesting uh. So i'm a with it trending right now, i'm a little bit confused about the weakness uh, but this just might be a momentary thing. It's hanging out right below 0.0003.

I think, above that it makes it very real case for 36. So i'm just watching this 30 line. I just wish it would trade at like a normal cent level or dollar level, so it was easier to call out um. All these zeroes do make it difficult, but anyway crypto taking a breather and right now the markets are a bit flat, a little flat to a little bit of the upside uh.

I think people we're just waiting around any of the movements you see in the queues. The spy iwm right now, everyone is really just waiting to see what the house of representatives does with the debt ceiling um. More specifically, i do want to do a bit of a breakdown on amc gme, all that good stuff, but just for the other ones that i know people are kind of interested in right. Now, we've been talking about any uh over the past couple days.

I was saying: hey look for a breakout and a close above 760 and that's exactly what we got. It is gapping down a little bit today, but this is strength it shot up. It came down it based we're now ripping back higher. The volume yesterday was beautiful.

The average 10-day volume has been 25.6 million, the volume now or yesterday was 72 million, so we basically 3x the volume on a technical breakout. You don't get much more bullish than that in terms of the numbers. The utilization is 100. The shares on loan is 12.67 million.

Do not look at this short interest uh right here. We know that 12.67 million they're, estimating that only 3.86 million is short about a third of it. I don't really buy that uh. If anything, i think you could probably triple this up.

I would say the short interest is probably around 20, as, like a conservative estimate on any part of the reason why this stock is doing so. Well, it's a minor. So if, if you see bitcoin and ethereum doing well, there's a good chance that mining stocks such as riot mara and now a n y, any will also be doing well. So, if you're, looking at the or text data for this on sphere 3d, just just be mindful that this is, in my opinion, a clear underestimation.

I don't think that there's only 3.86 million short when there's 12.7 million out on loan. I think it's acceptable to probably at least double this up at least triple this up, maybe 2.5 x and that's like, where you're coming to the point of like a little guesstimation stuff uh. But a and y doing very, very well from a technical perspective. But also, fundamentally, just look at bitcoin bitcoin ethereum doing well.

It makes sense that a and y is also doing well. I do want to talk a little bit about sdc uh, so we almost got this breakout. It could not hold above 660.. This is level i've been calling out.

We know we have support at six uh so from a technical perspective, a little bit whippy. But what i want to talk about is right here: uh they actually just got a new patent. Uh granted us pat entitled mouthpiece for teeth, whitening uh. So obviously i guess the mark is like it's up a little bit, but i just want to call that out.

I saw that they got a new patent and i i know there's people that are paying attention to who are in sdc, so i just wanted to bring that to your attention so on that one. Of course we have the other movers throughout the day and i'm more than happy to talk about them once the market gets really going and maybe we'll have some time before the market open, ater, uh bbig. I know like there's that 80, like uh well, hang on. There's so many so we'll hop into them, especially if one of them is particularly moving.

It just so happens that a and why sdc i saw some interesting movement, but let's quickly talk about the technicals of the overall market and then hop into amc and gme. More specifically, so weird day in the s p, 500. Remember the s. P 500 is an etf, an exchange traded fund, uh tracked by spy.

There are other etfs that track this particular indices, but it's 500 of the biggest companies in the us. That's why it's a nice barometer for the overall market, so yesterday it closed out at 4, 30. 4. 69..

The the first half of the day was very, very strong. Second half of the day. It just gave back all the gains and it ended up filling the gap. I mean when we're talking about the overall market and these major indexes that we like to pay attention to gap fills are very, very nice plays, and yesterday that's exactly what we got.

We got this beautiful gap play. It was relatively easy. I'm hoping this now acts as support and we bounce off of it. We still technically have a small gap from september 27th at 441.90.

Here's my game plan if the political system kind of goes the way that it's gon na seem it's seemingly going as if we passed this debt ceiling, i think it'll be a pretty easy play to just get this gap fill and obviously you could continue past that, But i'm just talking from a technical perspective in the short to medium term, a nice gap fill up to 441.90, so that's kind of my initial thought: um, i'm not necessarily calling for it today, unless maybe they pass the whole debt ceiling debacle. Maybe we get over that today we surmount it. I don't know if that will or won't happen. So this is like more of a a longer-term short-term prediction if that makes sense um, but for today it's as easy, as this is 435 going to hold 435 435.50.

If that holds i'm looking for this to continue upward, it's that simple. If it breaks down again and then i'm watching 433 in terms of the tech heavy etf, the qs, we got smacked at this trend line for the gazillionth time. It got smacked pretty heartily uh. So i'm looking for the breakout of the trendline or, if it doesn't, if it stays below about 360 yeah, i mean i guess at that point: i'm watching maybe around the lower below 355, then so closely, watching this trend line in the tech, heavy cues russell 2000.

We still have a little bit of a gap fill from what is this high on october 6th, specifically 220 20.. The low yesterday was 20 25, so we were off on this gap filled by five cents. So i'm looking for that gap, film, i'm also looking for the gaffil and for it to remain as support nice region of support, hoping that we see just basic green and the spies the q's iwm. All of those the chance of it being green goes way higher.

If the rest house of representatives does what a lot of people are predicting them to do now, let's quickly talk about amc and gme, so amc the utilization, 86.5 percent shares on loan 113.7 million and the short interest right now at 17.67 percent. The reason for this a lot of people are gon na. Like there's i mean when i didn't tweet it out. I wanted to talk about this because i think if i just threw the numbers out there, there would be confusion about what's going on.

So let me zoom in does this mean that shorts covered? Well? We know that that small outfit iceberg research they said they covered, but also, if they covered yesterday, there's a two-day settlement so that wouldn't really be reported in the numbers until tomorrow. The short interest of amc did not actually drop from 20.5 to seventeen point six percent. It did not drop that many percentage points. What happened is the exchange reported short interest came out yesterday and if you look at this exchange reported, you can see that they were overestimating as in ortex on october 1st they were estimating around or hang on.

Excuse me september 30th ortex was estimating 105 000 million. Excuse me: 105 million shares short against amc, but it was reported that it was 91 million um. I get a lot of people like just weird, like i guess, troll comments on twitter of people saying this is self-reported? No, no! No! No! No! It's not like hedge funds are saying: oh, this is how many shares were short it. This information is coming from finra and the brokerages.

It's not like hedge funds are like yeah. This is how many i have short. So when you see people talking about self-reported short interest when you're referring to the self make sure like, i don't think many people know who they're referring to because they're making it sound as if the hedge funds or market makers are doing it. But no it's the brokerages through finra, overlooking on the exchanges, but anyway.

The reason for this drop is the fact that ortex is doing its best. The best of its ability to use its model to predict on how many shares out on loan are actually short and, as of the end of september, there was an overestimation, so they had to recalibrate their model. Sometimes we've seen giant jumps upward other times like this. One we see a decline in it, so the shorts didn't actually cover.

This is ortex recalibrating its model to be as accurate as it possibly can be. I cannot stress that enough. It's not like a lot of shorts just got out of the game. Um, it's just a model recalibration based on the data that was released yesterday, but it was valid as of september 30th in terms of gme, very, very similar situation right here.

Let me just bring all this up for you so same thing, october 30 or excuse me, september 30th or text was estimating 9.5 million shares short, but the reported number was 7.8 vortex, overestimated they recalibrated their model, hence the drop to 12. This has nothing to do with the shorts actually covering. This is just a model recalibration one of the biggest issues with being a retail trader and or investor is the the size and the quality of data, and right now is ortex perfect, obviously not, but it's still better than any other thing we have. I see a lot of people out there and people, i guess - can have their opinions on it, but they're like oh, it's, 10x, more, it's 20x! More! It's 100x! More! That's that's fair, but i i still question: what's your data source ortex, the way you could use it is it's your conservative floor value it.

It just tells you a basis of where you're at. Is it going to be 100 accurate? No, we know it covers. 85 of transactional volume, so out of the legal legitimate picture it has 85 of that and, of course it's not collecting any data of illegal, illegitimate things because those things aren't reported. So how would i have it anyway or text? It's one of these things where i see people basically bitching and whining on social media of like.

Why would you use that what's going on and they just have these assumptions of like? Oh, no, it has to be 10x 100x and that's fine, but you have to have some sort of data source to back it up and with it i i know of no other data source that is more accurate in terms of these short numbers than ortex. Is it perfect? No, i would never argue it's perfect and in fact they would never argue it's perfect. I've talked to them about it, they're just doing their best with the data that is available to them, and it's because of that that i would always use that as the conservative floor value gives you just the idea of the realm that we're dealing in all right. It looks like we have how much time until the market opens three minutes.

Perfect, perfect um. So as we head into market open we're seeing some buyers step in in the overall market. But let me get to some of these questions. Uh got ta, show them prague, daily prague.

What's prague up to prague had a very very nice day, nice break out of 150 shoots up, comes down, bases breaks out of 147 156. I was calling out 156 as an interesting level to watch right here. This is uh pretty easy, you're just watching 220. from 220.

I would then watch 240, but i would specifically be interested in 270.. These are the levels i would watch today on prague uh. Sorry i jinxed your weekend when i told you to have a great one from now on i'll say have a bad one, so you don't catch another cold. What's going on randall uh matt good morning, what's up with the ortex significant drop, with no reflection in chart, in my opinion, possible returning uh non-shortage shares that were borrowed nope um, so obviously you sent this a little bit.

It's just the model recalibration nothing to do with shorts, covering return chairs or anything like that. It's just the proportionate amount of how many shares are actually short. It's the percentage of that of the shares on loan. That's the game! It's how accurate of a percentage of the shares on loan can we truly get and in the most recent cycle, remember we're working in these two week cycles vortex overestimated it uh smash the like, then i smashed into a guardrail tommy's touch, i i hope everything's.

Okay, i hope you didn't get into a little fender bender uh. Can you look into the gas marino lauer fight on twitter yeah? So i definitely want to look into that. It's super funny uh. I was reading that this morning after the bell opens around.

I don't know around like 9 45 10 a.m, we'll look into the gasparina dave, lauer fight, uh, hilarious, stuff! Speaking of smoking cigarettes last month, my cigarettes cost me 560 pack, today, 7 35 pack. Guess it's time to quit in terms of in like cigarettes, gasoline coffee, like just basic things: uh we're seeing prices go up and up and up please take a look at t, hasn't been under 26 since 2015 dividend earnings historically, 80 good. I think i bought him ticked it end of calls all right t we'll check that one out i'll write that one down shout out frank, uh, moro, bouzou candlestick pattern. I have never heard of that.

Candlestick pattern. Let me check it out are about to get rock in 15 seconds. Morobuzzo is the name of a japanese candlestick formation, using technical analysis to indicate stockhead traded strongly in one direction, all right, ding, ding, ding, the casino is open all right. Let's drop this to the one minute, one minute: oh whoa, whoa whoa, all right as this opens uh moribuzzo, the name of the japanese candlesticks formation used in ta to indicate a stock has traded strongly in one direction throughout the session and closed at its higher low.

The more moves and candles represented by only by a body has no wicks or shadows extending from the top or bottom away as yeah. So it's just like one giant bar basically uh. I didn't know that specifically had a name, so it's just indicative of it opens and from the open it just trades up all day and closes very close to its high or the exact opposite. It opens up and sells all day and closes very close to its low uh.

Is the japanese word for dominance? They are extremely powerful candles. They have a long body with small or no shadow. When a green one is formed, it means the stock opened all right. We did that it can be trend reversal or trend.

Continuation. High volume is more powerful, okay yeah i mean i haven't heard of that name, but we've seen those candles before and i would say that prague is pretty close to one. It would have been a picture-perfect one without the little wick on the bottom or the little wick on the top, but very very close to it. That's being nitpicky, that's just it's representative of a whole heck of a lot of strength, a lot, a lot of strength.

We do the latest vortex on prague, yes, prague, prague, prog short interest of 54 utilization, 99.5 percent in shares on loan 28.24 million uh. I very much want to keep up the russell 2000 right here so i'll put prague over in the bottom right just for the people who are paying attention to that uh a and y man, a and y is also having a nice day all right. Maybe i should put a and y over here just for open, but i do uh. This is when the hard part, if i were to just sit here and trade myself, i'd probably have so many different screens and charts up, but with streaming.

You have to consider. Okay, like how does it look like it can't be too small, but i would love to also be able to track what's going on in the overall market. I guess i'll pull that up over here and if anything, wild really starts to happen. I'll, let you know i'll, let you know uh, it looks like the cues are getting hit out of the gate, for whatever reason all right, amc making a nice base at 37 on the one minute um.

We saw thus far we're only about three to four minutes into the day. Just watch for this one minute, macd to cross back over with gamesup very, very interesting on gamestop that high correlation between strong first half days and its amount of mentions on wall street bets. As of today as of this morning, as of about i don't know, half hour ago 45 minutes ago, gamestop was the number one mentioned: ticker equity on the wall street bets subreddit and right now, gme, it's up 1.8 and it's looking strong, it's holding above 181. uh.

My recommendation right now is like, or at least what i'm personally watching. I want to see how it reacts to 188 190 um see what the supply and demand paradigm looks at those levels all right and why not holding the best right now, spy selling salon, selling huge pop q's exact same thing, iwm kind of the same thing: a Little bit more strength in reality all right, the cues. What do we have going on in the tech sector right now, all right, so the cues look forward to hold 360 if you're, watching tech iwm look for it to hold above 220 and a half and for the spy you're looking for it to hold above 435. That's kind of our breakdown: let's watch iwm, just because it we, i know it's a bit more correlated with amc, uh, prague you're.

Looking for the breakout. What was it 220? Excuse me: prong yeah, prague. 220-Ish. 240-Ish.

We see some wicks all the way up to the high 240s so just to make it very very clear. I have no prague position, i'm not in prague, but just a lot of people are asking about it. So why would i not talk about it and, if you're in it, i hope you're crushing it. I hope you are making some moolah.

What's your opinion on g-o-t-u i'll write that down and what percent of amc shortcoming will make you think amc play is over for the squeeze um so like how low would i have to see the short interest um for sure single digits, like undoubtedly single digits like If, if it's double digits, i still think it's a live play with it to get the exact single digit number, though i almost want to do a bit more research uh to understand where short squeezes really like play off. So maybe i'll do some historical research on that, but just for example, off the top of my head. We saw tesla in like this perpetual gamma squeeze in 2020 and at the time that it was doing that it had a short interest around like six-ish percent. So with it like that's just like one data point, i know of a stock that and like i said that was like a continue, slow grind of a gamma squeeze on tesla, but uh.

I would have to do like more research of like for me to be like okay, this number of like ah not really much like gunpowder in the keg anymore uh, but for that one i'll come back to you. That's a very good question. Tommy! Let me do a little bit like statistical research on these short interest plays gwh i'll. Look into that gwh shout out javier all right what questions we have in the discord? Hey, matt, just sign up with your voyager code.

It's set up to 12 weeks to verify to open a new account. Is that normal? For me, i was verified within like 20 minutes uh, so i don't know it. It depends on where you are. It does seem like different geographical locations.

Different states have different problems. I'm in pennsylvania and from the point i heard about voyager until my first buy on it was doge. This was back in what april may when doge was going haywire. It took me about like 20 to 30 minutes, all right, i'm seeing if there's just any breaking news as we get going today.

Nothing thus far uh we're seeing iwm come back with a little bit of strength same with amc. This makes a lot of sense. Prague is at 225. watch that man it's at a nice level right now, uh the previous wicks we saw were in the mid 240s pay attention to that.

How is the spy looking spies coming back, cues lagging a little bit behind i'm seeing more aggression in the small small cap sector and also the oops, the small caps over here iwm and the overall market uh this. We know that the high yields right now are they're kind of dragging the tech sector down and the reasoning for that is when you have such high yields that makes high growth stocks, which is a lot of these tech stocks. A less i don't know a less attractive investment really so you're going to see an outflow from high growth when you have yields that are so incredibly high, hey matt any thoughts on averaging down on atr bag holding in the mid teens thanks um with it ater. Hey i mean ater, we have a this bowl flag.

Remember a bull flag is when it trades up, and then it comes down in a channel uh with. Ideally, you could have like these two perfect parallel lines: um, it's breaking out of it, but for me to be like re-interested in ater, i would want to close above like the 9 9 10 9 15 area, and it looks like it's pushing for that for sure. Uh, that's what i'd be paying attention to with me, i'm the type of okay. I split up all these trades differently, in my mind like for something like draftkings i invested in it, i bought it on weakness and i'm just gon na sit there, because i believe in the long-term potential of the company truly, but something like ater.

This is nothing i would invest in. This is nothing i'm going to diamond, and this is something i would more so actively trade not necessarily day trade, i'm not the biggest day trader, but i, like multi-day swing trades, that's kind of my like bread and butter, but anyway with ater with it i mean Bearish bearish bearish. I was watching this 11 25 breakdown. I was like okay.

This is like at that point in time i was like okay, this is weakness and you got ta wait for buyers to truly step in that was around the end of september. That was your opportunity to get out if you were still long and now it was down down down down down. If you wanted to, you could have shorted it and now we're creating a base and the way i would look at atr remember. I have no ater position.

What i would do is i would look at the risk reward of whatever this recent low is of 766.. Are you, okay, with risking a dollar the answer to that is different from person to person ater the risk is right. Now a dollar and the reward is better if it gets above 9 15. from there, you can test 11 25.

The risk reward is there for sure an atr. We know it has a high short interest. We know it has a high utilization. We know it has a high cost to borrow, so the makings are there for something special, but does that guarantee every anything? I think i feel like there's a lot of new apes in this world that, as soon as they see a high utilization uh, it's a lower float a high short interest.

They think it has to happen. No nothing has to happen ever in the stock market. It's all a game of balancing your risk to your reward. Are you, okay, with the current risk and the current reward paradigm? Well, if so, maybe it's your trade ater! All i can tell you is what i would personally risk on this play.

I would risk a dollar to the october 8th low. That would be my risk and from there the reward i just play it from level to level is it going to break out at 9 15. I don't know. I have to watch how it reacts to 9.

15., if it breaks out of 9 15, i'm then watching 10. 40 after 10, 40, i'm watching 11 25.. Does it have potential? Yes? But just because something has potential doesn't mean it's gon na play out the way you want it to cues spy, so the the small cap is actually looking the best right now, which should bode very well for amc, um, small cap. Russell 2000 is looking strong right now, uh the spy it's having a little bit of an issue at 4, 35.

80.. Look for the push above that and in terms of the qs relatively weaker. Really the qs need to get back above 359.75 uh, but we're seeing some relative weakness. How is prague doing prague pushing uh it's coming up to the these interesting levels? What is this? Basically, 246 um has been a wick that we've seen in extended hours trading on prague, one on october 1st another one yesterday uh, so we're looking at this 246 level, this this a breakout above that, of course, there's a key psychological level at 250.

But from there you might be talking 270 in a very, very rapid manner. It's specifically 271, which was the high from july 26th uh how's, sdc sdc, not holding the 660 level, but a little bit of green inside day. So sdc has no real direction right now. Uh something just hit the spy something just hit.

The q's, what's going on with the cues in the spot, did something just happen like we just saw uh two of the major indexes take a hit whoa. What are they doing? Did uh? Was there some sort of political announcement, not that i see no they're they're selling something selling, and i don't know if it's quite news driven huh amc, though not reacting. In the same way, it seems like the small caps are holding on a little bit better here. The russell is at 221, so, let's just see if it can hold that amc hanging out at 37, it seems to be relative to the spy and the q's, not as impacted whoa, we're seeing this dip.

Whoa whoa whoa markets um we're seeing some sellers right now. Stepping in ever since 9 43. - the look at this - it's just accelerating, very much so all right so on the spy. Let's talk about it, calm cool collected: let's look at the levels where it can actively save itself.

You, don't you don't want to panic and be like oh everything's, just selling, you have to have some sort of plan so on the spy it looks like we have a level at 433, so about 70, more cents. We have this nice level of support. Let's see if the spy can bounce off of that the cues, i think we're going to have to go into a little bit more of a detailed time frame a little bit of support. I would argue at that wouldn't help us out the most, though, because that's about three dollars south of where we are iwm, it's actually holding on the best.

So that's good for uh the am seers out there. I got caught holding atr by only about what i was willing to lose, i'm still holding and hoping to make the bag smaller. At that point, shout out jeremy, can you give a technical of dna? Yes, what's going on mr corcor d n a can you check out apps? Yes, digital turbine, a p p s, volume on prog is insane uh, yes and prague is hang on prague, 52 mil already 53 mil already. This thing is trading huge, huge volume thanks for answering the question, i hope you make that video, i'm sure the three percent in drop amc short scared, some novice apes, yeah, so the the drop in the short interest uh.

It has nothing to do with actual shorts. This is just remember: it's an estimated short interest and they're just recalibrating it the ortex drop. It was because ortex as of september 30th, was overestimating it. They recalibrated the models to be as accurate as they possibly can had nothing to do with shorts, returning or shorts, covering or anything to do with the shares that were being borrowed being returned to the original owner all right.

So my best guess, right now of the overall market, is well. First of all, we've seen this kind of thing where they drop it and it ends up just becoming a v-shaped recovery. We've seen that actually quite a few times, but anyway uh this my best guesses. I don't know, did pelosi start saying something all right, we're just slowly tracking this.

The russell like i said, iwm holding up the best, which is good for amc. It seems like the queues are being hit the worst and then the spy is somewhere in the middle. Obviously, to the downside, the queues are down: 0.14 percent uh. The spy is down 0.19 and iwm.

The russell's actually still green. Gm is so green up. 0.5 percent up a dollar amc is down slightly down 12 cents um. A n y is hanging out at 7.50.

A and y that level i've been watching on it is 7.60, so very close there all right and we are seeing some buyers right now, slowly, but surely stepping in let's see, let's see what this recovery is going to be like and as we're waiting to see This recovery play out. You see some green in amc. You see some green and gme all right, so some buyers are stepping back in and i like that, uh we're. Definitely looking for amc and iwm are going to be related, also a little bit with the spy cues more tech, so not going to be that related to amc jimmy a little bit just different different beast.

But in the meantime, it is very, very fun to see what is going on with this fight. This is this is hilarious. This is absolutely hilarious. How do we get into this? I mean they're really funny, so this is coming from sorry.

Charlie story details a small piece of gary gensler's agenda to upend u.s markets. Our reporting shows endgame forced all trades to exchanges the biggest change in market structure in two decades, even though retail trading has been cheaper and easier. Obviously, this is a red, hammering argument. Uh sorry, charlie, probably doesn't know what he's talking about.

In fact, not probably he doesn't know um, he he's trying to politicize good healthy markets and, unfortunately, the way he's politicizing it he's acting as if us getting trades onto a lit exchange is somehow bad for everyone involved and it's going to be damaging to the market Time and time again, whenever this guy opens his mouth, he just proves that he doesn't know anything and he's just a puppet he's a puppet for someone. He says the lines that he's told to say, and he i don't. I truly don't unders. I don't think he knows, market structure he's literally campaigning for payment for order flow, which is something that was created by bernie madoff and then, of course, it gets into a situation where he is now stepping into an arena like p.

Brain charlie is stepping into an arena with a true guy who's. In he's, an intellectual titan has true expertise. Mr dave lauer - and i was actually fortunate enough yesterday to do a podcast with him at iex, which is in exchange like similar to the new york stock exchange. The nasdaq iex is another one and in fact, iex was created in a way to battle high frequency traders.

That's why that exchange was created, but anyway, dave steps in this is the story. All the current internalizer apologists want you to believe. Retail has never had it better; they neglect to mention the cost that has been imposed on pension plans, mutual funds or that they measure is flawed because of artificially wider spreads. This is exactly what i talk about when what he's referring to here is when i go on my rants about the nbbo, the national best been in offer, based on the fact that so much of retail trading is segmented off of lit exchanges.

That is widening the spread, and then these market makers, who are the ones segmenting retail off of it they're the ones saying hang on based on how it is we're doing good but like they're, the ones who made the measurement stick a very, very bad bad deal. Segmenting retail order flows harms markets widen spreads. Then those who champion this segmentation measure so-called price improvement against a wider spread and claim retail has never had it better. It's dangerous and, of course, those making.

The argument know that, but virtue citadel and other retail brokers are simply making too much money so they're desperate to maintain the system. They will fight the sec tooth and nail on this in order to preserve their annual bonuses. But something is different. This time, a huge set of retail investors has become informed, understands the corruption of the system and is fighting back.

They that's a force that hasn't been reckoned with before, and one might actually make a difference this time and that's exactly one of the main things i campaigned for is like. I think our community is big enough, that we can truly change the market for the better. Not only for ourselves, but everyone engaging in it this time and also in future generations, but the worst decision charlie has made right here is clapping back to dave lauer, you don't clap back to someone who's, truly an expert on it. When you yourself, don't know anything about it, this is the story that the tin hat brigade of market structure want you to believe what they omit.

Training has never been easier and cheaper pension funds can trade at fractions of a penny, and yet we need to blow up the system also, they never provide evidence of wider spreads. There actually is evidence. He just said: that's without research. Let's break this down.

I don't know what dave said back to this, but let me break it down and we'll see if i'm right or wrong trading has never been easier and cheaper. Well, first of all, easier and cheaper. Do i have a little bit of respect for robinhood? Yes, i do they brought in so many new traders into the market and they were trading very very easily for free, but this is the analogy i use the wright brothers did not stop at the first airplane, they created the first one. They made it better.

So robinhood, unfortunately, did not continue to iterate, they kept their old shitty business model, and we know this from testimony of the chairman of the sec, gary gensler in may of this year himself said robin hood went out of their way. They specifically went out of their way to accept a higher payment for order flow in return for shittier execution for their clients, they're they're not changing with what the retail public wants and they're going to be left in the dust. It's that simple, so to say that it's never been easier or cheaper. We now have things such as public such as fidelity, there's various brokerages, where you can trade easily and for free, and you can trade directly on a lit exchange.

If you are trading on something like robinhood or weeble, i i don't know what to say to you. It is so easy to sign up for another brokerage where you can route your own orders and not pay a commission. If your argument is, i don't want to pay. That's okay, you can trade on other things that avoid market makers, avoid dark pools and get your orders on a lid exchange for free, there's, no reason to be training on them anymore.

So this right here it's never been easier and cheaper. I agree, but you could do it without payment for order flow. He's talking about pension funds also never provide any evidence. There is evidence there are like written, like academic papers on this uh, i'm just what is this? What qualify, what qualification you have to talk about market structure since wind beers is a good thing by doing that, you own no share like buy a car blah blah blah you you're, some, oh okay, he's just being a as always.

Uh dave right here, swinging back. This is what ignorant clickbladers tell you, because they have no interest in reading research, pen, size and market impact measures have not improved plenty of research, but charlie wants me to do the work for him yeah. I mean this follows youtubers videos and calls it breaking news. When ever has that happened when a guy who is on the news is uh, oh f, f, f, f, f, f, f, am i back.

Am i frozen hello, hello, team team team team team team? Hello? Am i frozen hello team? Can you hear me? Oh brother, oh brother, oh brother, oh brother, what is going on? Have they finally gotten to matt? Have they finally taken out the duck boy? Oh brother, oh brother, freemat, hashtag freemat. Where are we at? Where are we at all right? Where are we am i back? Am i back on my back? I think you just need to reload. I don't know. What's going on um coming in i'm coming out, click here to reload, i think i'm back hello, hello, youtubes, hello, interwebs! I think i'm back, i'm just gon na go with it.

If not. What's it, i'm just gon na be talking to myself anyway uh. This is what ignorant clickbaiters tell you, because they have no interest in reading the research pension plan, struggle and move size and market impact measures have not improved plenty of research, but charlie wants me to do his work for him. I've read plenty of research on market structure, but let's see this guy provide us with evidence instead of mindless tweets by the way i'm open to change my mind.

He calls me rational, well-formed arguments mindless and accuses me of being in the tin, foil hat brigade, but he's not he's open-minded. Of course, i'm just making the same argument citadel made before they started, making so much money off of payment for order flow. Do you know how many of the country's largest pension funds filed complaint letters to the sec, making the exact points i've made? I do because i've worked with them on these issues in the past um. He i've read plenty of research on market structure.

He's not read anything at all like at all. This dude has not looked into it. He just doesn't know. This is so frustrating the fact that this guy still has some sort of platform.

The dude is a liar a liar. A lot like this isn't some debated thing of just some youtuber of like me starting drama. Sorry, charlie steals, youtubers research calls it breaking news and then just does in a minute back almost a decade ago. He lied and lied and lied about being a pulitzer prize nominee.

No he's not why this guy doesn't know journalistic integrity at all. He pumps and dumps robin hood. He pumps and dumps various market makers. He just doesn't know about the system and it's crazy because he has the resources available to him to actually learn about it and maybe do something good for with his position.

But time and time again he just chooses not to blows my mind, absolutely blows my mind: what do you think about the next resistance on tesler all right? Let's write that down so anyway. All you need to know about that is. Dave is very much right and sorry, charlie is very much wrong and to the point of it it's a lot of this stuff is not opinionated. That's one of the weirdest things, and maybe i i don't know it's one of the things that i find interesting about.

Uh this community, not only the apes, but then the people who fight with apes a lot of times, people fight as if it's um, as if there's like an opinion aspect to some of this, when a lot of it, you're you're fighting about facts like cold hard Facts uh, which is something i i just don't get like. We have the like. We have the stats, we have the facts, we have the figures, it's there, it's written about uh, i i just don't get it. I just let me uh actually read you something.

I think this is very, very interesting. I need to find one of my old tweets, one of my old tweets. How do i do this? I think it's advanced search, search, uh citadel, and it's from me all right. So this is from citadel.

18 thoughts on “Ep 102 stocks crypto: the calm before the storm dumb money w/ matt”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Investment Investor kishu says:

    Hey Hi. Thank you all for watching this new coin name: baby doge money maker. and so please buy and hold. I don't have anymore baby doge. I sell baby doge to baby doge money maker

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Satans Circus says:

    Matt question? If you register your shares through CS. IS it true that in order to cash in your shares you have to transfer them to โ€œstreet sharesโ€ get them out of your name to sell before cashing in? Which could take a couple days? Is this a good move?

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars glenn pierce says:

    I was stuck in Oakland for two days just got home late last night, and it was because of the COVID shot! Back in Albuquerque now.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Adrian M says:

    Look man I will listen to your so called 20min rants all day because you spit the truth! so keep it up and turn up on any hater! I admire you and I feel you 100% and although I feel like your age I'm a bit older lol. You are my reason for still holding $AMC. Oh and hey if you can tomm give your taughts on $DATS

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mstacks says:

    I was watching that matt dawg!!

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars s reid says:

    I just saw you posted an "insider trading" video. it disappear in front of my eyes. hello? duck man? are you ok?

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars justanotherguyful says:

    Wow there are almost no comments here thats weird.

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars CptSinkalot says:

    thx for spitting knowledge not hiding behind behaind a paywall. keep up the good work fuck the haters GME baby

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ruth Keeme says:

    Matt today after the markets closing Ortex released a tweet and it seems to have people really angry. I know you explained this today around the 23 minute mark but can you make a vid on Kohrs Lite about this please? Thank you so much!! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Spank Nanners (The Ape) says:


  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars FinanceInvestNetwork says:

    Great info man ๐Ÿ‘

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Rob Hochstein says:

    Investing in crypto currency now should be in every wise individuals list, in 2 to 3 years time, you will be estactic with the decision you made today

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Charles Mehrten says:

    AMC isn't going to moon

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris Roberts says:

    hi Matt I know that you know about shiba inu but did you know about kuma inu by the same developers of leash and bone they have increased over the last week.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Glitch Rekal says:


  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars EDwin Brown says:

    I think citadel hoping for a market crash to get bailed out like this is getting a little ridiculous what they doing to this company ๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ข๐Ÿ˜ขvery sad

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Miss Susan says:

    Hi from UK ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jason Mccormack says:

    They are always going to raise the debt ceiling, they are NOT going to raise rates to fight inflation… THEY CAN NOT do that without utterly destroying the economy… Political smoke and mirrors.

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