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Dumb Money Ep. 78: AMC, GameStop & Crypto
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Hello, hello, hello, we are live once again. What is going on moon gang moon gang afternoon session for today, monday september 20th, what a crazy day, what a crazy crazy day we have going on in the market right now like it actually is like super super insane. The s p 500 is down 2. The nasdaq 100 is down 2.6 and the russell 2000 is also down 2.6.

That's crazy! It's not often uh at all that you see the indices dropping by like really it's abnormal to see it by more than one percent um. No less two, it's nuts uh! We were just talking about this, a little bit that there is this phenomena known within the stock market of it's known as turn around tuesday or there's some other names for it. But basically it goes like this. If monday is a red day, it's very common for the market, the s p, 500, the russell 2000, the nasdaq 100, but mainly the s p 500 red monday, typically leads to a green tuesday.

That's why it's called turn around tuesday. You come down on monday. You go up on tuesday, um, it's very very interesting and the phenomena is true, so i was back testing it in more of a general sense from 2005. Up until recently, it's traded just over just over about 100 times.

I think it was 107 with about an accuracy of 60, but the profit factor on the s p 500 futures has about a 2.7 and then it is a little bit lower. But it's still over two for sp. Why? That etf and the difference there really does relate to how long the trading session is so spy trades from 9 30 to 4.. While on the flip side, you have the es futures contract, the s, p, 500 futures contract that trades on the globex session, and with that that trades from sunday night till friday night and it's training 23 hours out of the day it takes off from 5 to 6 p.m: eastern, regardless that one uh that's the difference, but overall we have this pattern, but what we also have a pattern of is weakness in the second half of september.

The second half of september is notoriously weak uh, so we're kind of fighting against that like and you get these different signals. So then, what i thought was: okay, it'd be good for you to all have the numbers and someone in the discord brought this up or like well, okay, how did it specifically do turn around tuesday in september and from 2005 until now, unfortunately, there's not enough data Points it's been triggered, this training methodology was triggered six times. Three were positive, three were negative, but the profit factor was over a factor of three which is very good. That means for every dollar loss over three was gained.

So that's good. It does favor the bulls, but it was still the flip of a coin. So how does this really impact us tomorrow? We know that there's a statistical advantage to turn around tuesday, especially because if the market drops more than one percent and like i said, the spy is down more than two percent well, how does that help us so with september? And unfortunately, it's one of these weird scenarios, where you have strong patterns that are contradictory with each other, so spy strong on tuesdays, strong reversion, but not necessarily in the second half of september, so we're in the second half of september, which is bearish. But then we have the turnaround tuesday, which is bullish, so it becomes tough and sometimes i i guess i tend to think of that.

When i have two contradictory signals of equal strength, i tend to just kind of think that they cancel each other out and it's more of a neutral thing. But on the flip side, a quick word of warning to my options: traders out there a lot of people with this data they're like okay turn around tuesday. I want to play that i want to get into some calls. Let me very very quickly.

Ver like this is super super important um. I do not think it is a good environment to get calls on the s p. 500 right now. If you think it's going to bounce tomorrow now hear me out.

I don't necessarily disagree. I think there's a shot of it going green today or tomorrow. Excuse me of tomorrow from open and close being a green day. I'm not disagreeing with that.

It's more of remember how options are priced. Remember that volatility is very, very important between the underlying value of the asset volatility and time till expiration, so volatility being the middle one. There very very important if, in the event that the spy bounces tomorrow you'll get the direction of the price correct, which is awesome. You definitely definitely want that.

But if you get the direction of the price correct, that also inherently means that volatility will drop. So that's going to work against you in your premium, so there is a scenario where, if your goal is the spy going up tomorrow, you might be right and if you bet on that in the options market, you still might end up losing money, because the volatility Is so high right now and if the market starts to bounce back, volatility will die off, that's going to eat away at your option premium and you could still lose value, even though you got the direction right. So that brings up the next question of like okay. Well, that kind of sucks i was ready to play cause on it.

What should i do now, if you're in the camp that you're still feeling bullish on spy? One thing you might want to consider is doing the opposite in terms of volatility. So, if you're going up, if you think the spy is going to go up tomorrow, there's a good chance things like vix vxx, uv, xy um. All of those could fall, so you could actually play puts on that and then that's more of like a meta bet, because you're betting on the volatility of volatility itself. So if that fell off, that would actually benefit you, uh, and i know that's a little bit and maybe some of you don't care about options like whatsoever, but i just wanted to get that out there, oh hey partner.

Are we still doing this thing? Oh, this is from riley reed. What's going on, kinky kong ape babe, hey apes, melissa lee wants to make an ape doc that the mulligan brothers are not happy and the muggin and the mulligan brothers are not happy. You can't say uh, i blame them. Keep your heads up fam, i love you all so yeah i mean uh.

I i saw actually just over break now uh some of the negative reaction. Um, i don't know i i feel like the best thing is just to play neutral. It's such, i think people are now looking for a uh, a sense of something i guess to be like it just seems like more drama and, of course, we always see more drama when it's when there's a red day. So i think people are like not feeling the best because we're seeing not only amc and gme but like everything's selling today everything's in the red and that's because of what's going on in china, it's because of what's going on in the debt ceiling, it's there's so Many, the fed, uh seasonal weakness, there's so many things going on, and it's just like a heightened sense of emotion.

It's a heightened sense of just like angst um. I don't know. I think - and this is what i was talking about on friday when the market was concluding um - i i just this - is this - should not be an emotional thing, uh folks support who you want to support, don't support, who you don't want to support? I am still going to stick to my guns of the fact that i i want our story to be told, and i like that our story is being told by people within the community. For me, it's that simple, but i'm not gon na.

We have bigger fish to fry than worrying about drama of who's. Doing what and who isn't doing what um is it's just? It seems a bit. I guess childish to me and also just remember as much as people are arguing online. Like has anyone's opinion ever been changed because of an online internet argument.

I don't think the answer to that is like literally ever um, so i don't know it's just to me like i said i don't know how to make it more evident than the fact that i love our story is being told by people who are in the Community from the support from the start, um just that what else we have going on. Oh this riley read thing: amc, uh trading, just above 40.. I like that at holding they try to push it down below 40 around noon o'clock today, and i man they just. They can't like we're we're above 40 right now.

They try to push down pounds back up. They try to push it again again, um and we're still above 40.. I like that um gme trying to hold on to 190. We know their support between 188 and 190 on gme aka gamestop, so we're at that realm right now.

The issue is not in any way amc or gme uh. It truly truly isn't what's going on right now is the russell 2000 and the s p, 500 they're they're, just dragging it down. I mean the russell 2000 now down almost three percent: the nasdaq 100. Almost down 3 and the s p russell 2000, nasdaq, both down three s: p 500, down 2.3 uh, what we're just seeing selling in the entire market.

This is not an amc, specific thing. This is not a gmc specific thing. This is a market thing. The entire market's read crypto's red everything's, red um people are they're.

The term is being risk off they're selling they're, sending on their cash and they're waiting for their opportunity to redeploy it and hey. Remember, was talking about being robotic the. If then, hey my, if was not hit, not even close to being hit, so i'm not doing anything uh amc over today they have borrowed 724 000 shares and the short interest is 18.63. The utilization is 91.64 shares on loan.

There's that return of 1.77 million. So we're probably around 105 million uh, but the key thing right here that i'm sure a lot of you want to know about short interest on amc 18.63 gme uh, not much going on a net borrow of 16 000 shares with a short interest of 12.24 uh. So not crazy, crazy moves. Um.

We were seeing a bit of strength, uh interesting amount of strength in ater today, uh i i just i i find it noteworthy just because the rest of the market is so weak and whenever you see something that's acting strong when everything else is weak, i mean Obviously it's gon na turn some heads uh. I don't have any ater position but um it's worthwhile to dive into, especially if you have some time and you want to um - i guess look into it and kind of see. Just maybe if it interests you or not, but to me it is definitely noteworthy and i think if it uh can get really above that 1325 level, i'd be kind of watching 15.. Now is the time to buy.

There are bargains out there shout out would ralph. I got a question about options. I got some 50 options that expire december 17th. Obviously i'm down.

Currently, how long do you expect the evergrand markets off to last because of um? So that's very tough, like honestly. If i knew exactly how long this craziness would last i'd be able to turn it into like an amazing trade um, but, alas, my un inability to be clairvoyant still still stymies me if i had to throw out my best guess, um, with some of the technicals Being contradictory to other and by i guess that i mean more of just the patterns, i'm i don't know, i'm hesitant to put anything out there just because i know so the evergreen thing it's a mess and i don't think that's going to benefit us, but we Also know well what, if they take care of this debt ceiling thing very soon. Well, that takes one of the issues off of our plate and then also what, if the fed comes in on wednesday and they're, like you know what we thought about it, we're not really going to taper our asset purchases quite yet. Well, that would also benefit us, but even if we fix the debt ceiling and the fed comes in a little bit more, i guess dovish.

Let's say you still have seasonal weakness in the second half of september um. So, for me, i i mean, and that i was expressing it this morning when i got out of my a-n-y - calls, i'm in the mode of kind of shoring up some of my own capital, because i do think this represents a dip buy opportunity. It's just i'm waiting for the like first serious set of buyers to step in because across the market right now we're just not seeing many buyers step in at the moment uh. This could change on a moment's notice, but it's just as of right.

Now we still see people being risked off puts on spy money making time shout out ryan i mean whatever you do. I hope you do well. I am i'm currently bearish against the s p, 500 and russell 2000. Obviously uh.

I still have my bullish position on amc and jimmy um, i'm just waiting out to see how this all plays out. Matt. Thank you for your ccc calmness, coolness and collectiveness. They are waxing my lambo.

It's just going to take a little bit longer shout out paul. I, like the enthusiasm, let's check out some of the flow. Let's see what's going on here, uh here i could reload ater. Oh wait! What why are some of them delayed alt? Oh it's just, i guess they're having an issue and it's being investigated.

Um. 50. 50.. That's crazy, uh wow the premium split on spy 50 bullish, 50 bearish.

What about with the russell 2000 favoring the bears right now. What about the nasdaq 100 favoring slightly the bulls but well all these are very close to 50 50.. What about amc um right now? 53.5 bears 46.5 bulls. Amc, let's check the gme uh same pretty much the same numbers on gme, pretty much the same numbers so right now, the spy just so you know from a bit of a bigger picture here i was very much watching 431 uh.

We just had some support, support, support resistance, support, support resistance, resistance support, uh, basically, 431 is an area where the s p 500 was messing around quite a bit between, let's just call it the first two thirds of july we're going below that um. I wouldn't call this an official breakdown yet, but the longer we're trading below 40 431. It does make it more realistic for us to come down to 427.5 uh. That would be the next level.

The longer we stay below 431, the more likely in my personal opinion that we see 427.5, and then i have that in the green, because i do think that this would be an area of demand. This two dollar range before between 425.5 and 427.5. So this is what i'm watching in uh right here and we'll just kind of see how it goes, but i i want to stress right now. This is not.

There are some people panicking, but if you panic, that means you're more likely to make some sort of emotional decision, and this literally is perfect for what i said on friday, and just so you know my rant on friday about like psychology and emotions. I ended up posting that because i want it it's a message that should be heard by our community, regardless just to iterate the important points of it. You have to have a plan this this. You should make this as robotic as you possibly can.

If this happens then do this - if this happens, then do this, if, if your ifs quote unquote, ifs are not being hit, if your conditions are not there for you to buy more or do whatever you're attempting to do whatever your plan, is it doesn't matter if Your conditions are not hit well. That means you do nothing. Most of your trading is going to be sitting around doing nothing. A high majority of your training is sitting around doing absolutely nothing, and for me right here, i'm following my plans and i'm doing nothing.

That's that's what my plan calls for at this moment in time when something happens and one of my ifs gets triggered. You'll all be the first to know i'll, let you know, but right here some days you just have to sit through a bit of pain and that's just part of the process for anyone who's pitching this concept that every single day you're just making money making money Making money every day is green, green, green, green um. That's not real trading! That's not how the market is actually going to play out for anyone in this entire world. So for us, sometimes you sit and we're just waiting for to see when some of these levels of buying start to step in and from there uh.

That's, maybe the time to make moves. I'm dyslexic. So i panicked bye. Shout out milk duds milk duds from australia uh.

Let's look at some of these levels on amc, since we did it uh i mean the spy not like in the best amc um. We have a level at 39.40 and then we also have another one at 37. Just 20-ish these are rough levels, but coming up to a level of support on amc for gme, also at support. Right now i was telling you 188 to 190.

uh. If you can't hold 188. I would then look for the additional oops did not want that. 178.

Uh, if if it can't hold 188, but it's at that level right now, so we're going to see if it truly will act as support or not. What do you think about tesla options? What do i think about tesla options? Looking okay, so i would want to see how tesla reacts to 720. If it breaks below i'd play it down to 700, if it bounces, i would try to play the gap full back up to 750. kramer making fun of apes today.

Why does he keep talking about amc debt when it's a squeeze play the cnbc reporters? Don't get this at all uh? Did he tweet about this, or was this on his like show or something here? Let me see if i could find out what jimmy boy is up to, and i see that he's talking about wind, that's gambling. What do i see talking crypto and young investors tonight and then he's talking about uh? It must have been on his show. I don't know i mean all in in reference to amc and kramer. We we've clearly learned that uh all he's just been all over the map.

Definitely all over the map. Uh, please say something on sdc um. Well, i guess we're now. Looking at the opposite gap.

Fill so before us saying: oh interesting gap fell up to this low from august 9th at 663. If we end up closing below 635, that would be the play. That interests me a quick gap to fill to 605, but even that one, it's tough to say to go against it uh. It is a medium flow, it's not on the threshold list, but it does have a high short interest.

It does have a high utilization and more and more people are talking about it. So the way i would watch stdc sdc is mentally prepare for it to come back down to six. It looks like it wants to fill that gap. The way it previously has to the upside it looks like it just wants to now gap fill down to the bottom side um, so i would mentally prepare for that and then look for that to act as support and hope for the bounce off of it.

All right, where are we at gme amc, everything's, just red? This is a it's a day of panic. It's a day of selling uh people are letting their fear run, their emotions, fear uh, probably one of the - i guess - strongest, emotions and uh for me and it's tough. I don't think this is easy to sit here and like what like a stoic man really. This doesn't bother me yeah.

Of course it does. I hate seeing my p l, i'm trying to hedge it a little bit. I do have some uh futures contracts against the s. P 500.

I'm trying to hedge my portfolio a little bit to stop the bleeding uh, but it still sucks like i i'm i'm down more than my hedges up. So it's making it like a little less painful but still still noteworthy noteworthy amounts of pain, but hey this is it and i i don't know i guess it's the the yin and yang of the situation. We have those crazy days like in june or like in january, where everything's insane and it's ripping - and it's like we're just seeing all this incredible amount of buying and all of our p l is moving up up up well. This is the flip side of it.

Folks, this is the flip side of it. The stocks are selling off, and the only thing that i can really stress is hey. If you have a plan, you're gon na know how to like really handle this, and, if you're here, specifically for what's going on in the moon, stocks, amc and gme, you need to know that this is not specific to them. What is happening? This isn't some weird crazy, like short attack and or like i don't know, dilution or anything along those lines.

Amc and jimmy are selling off, because everything is selling off. Amc is selling off for the same reason that jimmy's, for the same reason that nvidia's apple tesla name a stock, very, very good chance that it's red and they're all red together. It is not specific to either of our favorite moon stocks matt can't we demand a share count. Wouldn't that expose everything uh.

No, they did a share count in june and it didn't expose squad, see you later billy, it's a day of, puts working for me. Shout out that mailing guy um, i haven't seen the rsi this low in spine. While have you, of course it could go lower. It makes sense.

Yes, so the spy! Well, let's go to the daily. It depends what time frame you're on so right now. Well, even then, the la okay check this out, the rsi, is currently giving us a reading of 30. The last time it was this low.

The world was basically going belly up and i'm talking late feb when everyone started to realize the severity of this situation. But please this is a very good teaching lesson just because it's low and it doesn't happen often please please, please, please, please he's saying please a lot folks and it's for an important reason. The last time it was at 30. We were not done.

We weren't close to done. Do you know what happened after that? We came down further bounced a bit the rsi recovered, but guess where the stock, the market kept going. So this isn't necessarily the time for everyone to buy, because the last time we were at this reading, we still dropped another 29 30 29 um. And that's why you want multiple time frames to confirm what you're about to do, because, if you're simply looking at the rsi in one time frame, we were here feb 25th uh everyone's like oh wow, that's probably bad! This is this.

Is the buy right here? The people who waited a couple more days, they're like oh, no, i got the buy right and look at what happens still after that march, 4th still down down down down now with that. This is a little bit of a different time period, because right here, uh somewhere in here, was when the previous president got on tv and was like hey we're, shutting down trading or like travel to europe and stuff like there was other more serious external factors than We currently have so i'm not saying hey, prepare for an additional 30 drop, not at all. I don't think it's gon na happen actually, like i just i don't think it'll be that severe. I'm just trying to excuse me illustrate the point that simply because we're here on the first time that doesn't necessarily it has to be done, uh that doesn't mean the sell-off has to be over, because we still have evergreen.

We still have the fed. We still have the debt ceiling, we still have seasonal weakness. There are various things and with that i'll get the question and it's a very, very fair question, and i don't mean this facetiously, but the question is like okay, we'll win by the dip and very honestly my answer is, i don't know. I really don't know what i'm looking for is.

Let me like. Okay, let's use this as an example. If you look at this time period, july, 14th, 15th, 16th and 19th, i i wouldn't know where to buy there either and then the 20th. I see that buyer step in i'm like, oh, okay.

This is an opportunity, so you get in somewhere around here 433 and then you end up writing it up. I don't know i do not know when buyers are gon na step in, but when they do. Okay, we'll know i'll talk about it, i'll be breaking it down. I'm not gon na, like hide it from anyone when the buyers step in i'll kind of use that as an opportunity to ride it back up because the same way we talk about gaps.

Well, we have a new gap right here, uh right there, one of these days this market will gap, fill back up to 441 and i'm hoping that i am there to capitalize. Excuse me so, like i said uh one day, i think the gap is going to get filled and but i'm not going to take my shot now because it could keep selling off it's just we're going to wait. Calm, cool collected, no reason to panic. Uh you don't wan na force a trade you just let the trade come to you when the market will tell us when it's time to go long again, uh on the s p.

500. Would anyone be surprised by spy filling the gap to 401 to 401? Where do we have that gap? We have a gap to 401. Oh you're, talking about this guy right here. I actually see this gap.

Uh there's a gap right here. Around 410 that's been untested and then, like you said, we have an additional gap. One of these days, these gaps will get filled. We have a gap right here around 4 11-ish.

We have another gap here around 401. These are all gaps. I do believe that they're going to fill so now we have gaps to the bottom side. We have gaps to the upside, doesn't make it the easiest trade not by any means, but one day i think the bottom gaps and the top gaps will all get filled all right.

Spy 430 remember uh. If it goes below uh. Well, no we're below 430. One thousand level i was watching on the s: p.

500: i the longer it stays below 431 if it can't quickly recapture it and honestly, the way things are heading right now. Every single stock i see is just in the red. Ah man, i think, there's a good shot that the s p 500 is on its way to 427.5 all right. What else do we have going on here? What do we have here, all right, uh? No, that does not matter jim cramer cell signal still in place and then unusual whales.

This is bullish. Oh man amc not having the best of days 39.50, jimmy 186, iwm, 215 spy, just above 4, 30. c of red how's crypto, doing kryptos in the red red red as well: bitcoin, 43, 600, ethereum, 3050, cardano uh, 212 and then hex 43., crazy, crazy, crazy day. But you're gon na have it learn as many lessons as you possibly can, and for me i don't know i, maybe it might sound simplistic, but it really just is this simplistic? Okay, i'm gon na, especially this this is uh commentary is more in reference to amc and jimmy or really whatever, stock you're in maybe you're feeling the pain on nvidia amd apple, tesla palantir, any of those it's it's honestly in my book.

It's this simple! You sit there, you let it do what it wants to do and one of these days it's going to be very, very obvious, and it's going to start to pull a u-turn you're going to see buyers step in it's going to start to swing back up, and That's your opportunity is that a foolproof plan? No, absolutely not. I showed you in february in spy. It went up for a couple days and then continued to sell off yeah that that's a possibility, but that's why you just risked the most recent low then for the newest, buy to see what's going on, but with here. If you can sit here calmly and you have some extra capital do whatever that is whatever amount.

That is you just sit, you wait, you be calm, you wait for buyers to step in and then you join them when they have enough strength at one point, another uh all news channels at one point or another. This weekend from the market saying a market crash yeah, but i mean when people make calls like that. Like do you know if you look hard enough on the internet or on news everyone's always calling for a market crash and here's the secret technique of how to call market crash, you just sit there day in and day out, market crash market crash, and you say That for as many days as you need to until the market crash occurs and then you're like, i called it well duh, if you keep saying the exact same thing day over day for an infinite amount of time. Well, of course, one of those days you're gon na, be right.

So, whenever anyone's calling for doomsday or market crash to me, it's of zero use or utility, if they're not putting either a date or a magnitude or a combination of the two together. But it's so easy seriously. I can make a youtube video every single day, saying market crash market crash market crash market crash, and i can post that for a year another year, another year, every single day day in and day out, even on the weekends. I could be like i don't even care the market's not open, but market crash, and eventually it's you're gon na be right and then you could be like dude look at.

I called that out called that out. Bro well duh, of course, you're eventually gon na be right. That doesn't mean that you have some like crazy insight to the market and right now, it's the s, p, 500 being bearish on it honestly for mainstream media. That is uh! That's some pretty low hanging fruit between evergrand between the fed between the debt ceiling between seasonal bearishness, it's kind of a layup for a call to be like look.

I called it like. That's not some like immense big brain dd of the overall market. I mean if you can like just do some light, googling and read what's going on in the world it um, it makes sense uh make a video about computer share computer share computer share. I probably won't be because uh i'm i'm not necessarily against it, but i'm not necessarily uh supportive of it um.

I i do i'm a big fan of how it seems to cut down on ftds, and i like that. But i don't it's not the fastest moving thing and i don't want it to be a situation where, because of my video, even if i'm not necessarily the most supportive of it, uh people might think that i'm supportive of it and they end up registering their shares On computer share - and it makes you a lot more immobile, so i don't want it to be be like hey. We put in all this work, these things finally squeeze and then because you're on computer share you're not able to capitalize on the opportunity when you want to capitalize on it. So i i don't know i i don't know if i like well.

First of all, i don't want to give out any advice, but i don't even necessarily know if i want to put more um. I guess spotlight on a thing that i don't think people realize how slow it's going to make their trading so that that's a a big concern of mine, uh they're, trying to shake emotion, shake us emotionally, don't give in. I agree with you why you being so negative uh, do you mean factual, there's a folks um this i don't know. I always come back to uh gabe's comment on this.

This is wall street. This is not sesame street. This is not if you're engaging in the stock market and you're looking for someone to like hold your hand and be like. Oh no everything's, all right, no some days, things are not all right.

Some days things suck and i'm not here to tell everyone that their idea and their position is like the best thing ever and have no worries about it. Sometimes you make good decisions. Sometimes you make bad decisions and sometimes you make okay decisions, but even with that, these are my own thoughts. These are this is my own commentary.

You got to do what you want to do, um, no one, if you feel very, very confident in something that doesn't. If i come on and be like. Oh no, i don't really agree with that. Okay, cool you're supposed to be confident by yourself.

If i love something - and you hate it - i don't know, i don't know who's gon na be right. No one know in any of the things on the screen right now. No one knows what the next bar is gon na, be it's always as simple as an. If then statement be a robot know what you're doing and some dude who's just talking on a live stream should not be like all of a sudden, like the the golden amazing source of truth on.

What's all good plays and what's all bad plays folks, these are my decisions you should have these are my i make my decisions on my opinions. You need to make your decisions on your opinions, i'm just freely sharing my opinions and right now i. What was that? I think your comment was in reference to computer share. I don't think it's necessarily the best thing for apes, because i don't think apes understand that it makes them more immobile and you might miss out on your exit.

Everything i'm reading about computer share it's more for long-term people that don't need to get out in such a well-defined manner at such a specific time. Uh, i'm not saying computer share is like fraudulent or anything like that. I like what it's doing, and i fully admit that it could theoretically help out on cutting down ftds, which i think is a huge benefit. But then that's the risk reward of this situation.

Do you want to cut down on ftds, but then all of a sudden, all apes are immobile and can't get out of their position when they want to get out of their position, because if you agree with that, well then what have we been doing over the Six months, like you, don't just put in all this fight to not be able to like collect your attendees and go to the moon when you want to. I feel that the hedge funds have so much stock shorted that they are making fortunes the last week about next few, which will raise capital for them and help avoid margin, calls um a central, hard worker. I don't necessarily agree with that, because about 95 percent of trading is going long and only about five percent of trading is going short um. So i i don't know like it might seem that way, but the odds would be disagreeing with you on most stocks across the entire market.

A high majority, not even a majority like a very very high majority, is long on stocks. Um people who are notoriously short, like there's, there's this mindset as if it's almost 50 50 of like okay. All these people are continually going long and they're permeables, and then you have all these other people who are going permanent, like they're going short and they're perma bears and like it's always a battle between that. No, it isn't um.

It's it's actually very much. The bulls are the highest in magnitude, most people when they engage in the market, invest in a company um. It's it's a statistical uh, it's minimally. It's statistically impressive.

How many bulls there are out there. It's like. I said the splits roughly 95 to 5. across the entire market majority of people, don't know how to short that that'll probably be part of it.

I mean not all brokerages allow shorting or if you can short, you have to get special permissions and like sometimes it involves like locating shares. I just want to make it clear, like i don't know if i've like specifically stated this, but it's not a 50 50 thing. It's not like half positions traded throughout the day are long and the other half are short. That's not how it works all right.

What do you think about i've seen a lot on twitter looking to ape some money. I have no idea what that is. We use computer share for my employer stock purchase program. It's the commodore 64 of trading platforms.

It works, but you need at least 40 to know how to use it, but you need to be at least 40 to know how to use it. What's going on dom red crayons make my eyes rain, being honest and no more necessary, shout out uh i'm trying to make sense of my life right now at timothy. What i don't know what what's your life? I don't know how to like comment on that. Uh shouldn't you be looking for.

I guess life fulfillment shouldn't that be like your north star of sorts, hey matt. Can you look at pltr? I want to see the next level of support, of course, uh. Yes, 25. 25.

25.. I'm i still like palantir still a fan of it will be a fan of it. I think this is a great long-term opportunity. What are your thoughts on ater and what is the data ater? Okay, ater has a short interest of 64.66 percent shares on loan of 16.25 million and a utilization of 99.8.

On top of that, though, um, if you guys have been following true demon at all, who has been writing some interesting dd and really following these ftd short squeeze plays, he does have some other triggers that he specifically looks for related to how much volume is the Short exempt volume in relation to the overall short volume, um and and there's some other credentials in there, basically of its action. How like is it in, like the short time frame, uh some more of a moving average thing, but anyway uh? I digress for ater. If you are a follower, a disciple uh, a supporter of true demon, who is not, i don't think, the first person but a big person who, like really brought eyes to sprt um everything that just recently happened with ater. It is hitting all of his personal signals.

Uh of something that's going to get him interested, but just so you know, i was actually just talking with him in the discord when you, when his signals get hit. It's not necessarily indicative of like oh next days of the day for him. I believe he looks at options that are about 30 to 45 days out, roughly um just so, you have a little bit more insight. That doesn't mean it's the best way to trade it that doesn't mean it's the worst way to trade it.

I just want everyone to know the guy who called out sprt and really created some sort of rubric that we can follow. Um recently we're seeing some interesting opportunity in ater, but with that being said just so, everyone knows i do not have a position in ater. Hey thought that the market maker started to correct the amc would go up not down to the other stock being liquidated. Can you help me understand um when the market started to correct amc would go up.

The market hasn't corrected, though the spy and russell 2000 both made intraday lows, market, wolf and also it doesn't have to um it. It's it's easier for amc and jamie to bounce when the market is bouncing, it's easier for them to move in the same general direction. Um but right now the spy and russell 2000 are both selling off um. You always say if there's a seller, there's a buyer where's, the green of all the selling, though uh there doesn't have to be green because the way the stock market works, a buyer and a seller agree on a price one exchanges money.

The other exchanges shares so shares go one way. Money goes the other way. The difference of how a stock moves is the price they're agreeing upon early this morning, buyers and sellers agreed to trade amc at 42.83. The buyer and the seller were both willing participants right now, they're agreeing on 38.55 buyers and sellers there's sellers agreeing on that.

There's buyers agreeing on it. It's the price that a buyer and a seller agrees upon um for every transaction. There has to be a buyer for every transaction. There has to be a seller that has no influence on if the price is going up or down.

It's just the inherent axiom of the stock market. Uh. Can you do? Can you tell us the market situation when vw took off comparing to amc now, um yeah, very, very different, the volkswagen situation involved the government and another like corporate takeover porsche porsche. However, you want to say it um very, very different.

It was like a hostile takeover. You had the government involved um a very, very different, fundamental situation in terms of who the players were. It wasn't some societal cultural movement in vw. Can you check nxe? Is it a good investment and xe uh the daily chart doesn't look the most hot at the moment i would say 420 dollars and 20 404.20.

It looks like it might be coming back down here if you get that bounce off. Of that, i would be interested in the gap fill play up to 520. um. Who is selling amc? I mean it's not really.

I guess like public info like that of who's selling and who's buying, unless they choose to disclose it. All we really know is right about here. Okay, so amc, thus far to dre has, let's just call it 57 million shares. That means in totality there's someone bought 57 million shares and someone sold 57 million shares for you to buy something.

Someone has to sell it to you for you to sell something. Someone has to buy it off of you there. It's always a two-party like involvement. Like you have a buyer and you have a seller, that's the only way you can't buy from the ether you can't sell into the ether, because, if that were true, how would the price be decided whatsoever? Uh someone said no one is selling like factually that's just wrong.

They've sold 57 million shares today of amc and on the flip side, they've bought 57 million shares today. Um and with all this, that's everyone. That's that's retail! That's banks! That's hedge funds! That's institutions! That's high frequency traders, that's market makers in that volume number. That's everyone, um, all all participants uh.

What are the next levels of support? Where do you honestly see amc heading just curious um, so i just play it level to level uh. I admit right now. Things are not looking the best in terms of the overall market, the spot, oh man, russell 2000 keeps selling the next support for amc is 37 uh. That's the next support that i'm personally paying attention to we're at 38.85 uh.

Technically, we had support at 39. So this might be a fake out breakdown if we can quickly recapture 39 39 40ish uh. If you pull up the rsi, this is severely overextended, um severely overextended, so as it gets into this extreme oversold territory, the odds continue to increase for a bounce. But honestly, if you here's my own opinion, if you want to know the amc and gme bounce of when it is and when buyers step in, i honestly would not watch amc and jimmy.

I would watch the s p, 500 and the russell 2000, because it's the uncertainty in our stock market at large, that's causing today's action. It has nothing really to do with amc or gme themselves: hey matt, not financial advice. What do you think about setting a stop limit at average price per share to buy back in at a lower price? Um? That's an okay plan! Uh! It's not perfect, because what, if you get filled you're out of your position, what if it doesn't go lower um? So like with that, i see what you're saying but just understand that you're attempting to time the market and when you time the market things get a little bit more difficult and there's a little bit more luck involved. It's like for you.

It technically is a more if it plays out the way you want it to it would make you more profitable. It would help your p l and it would uh there's various things that would help with, but you're also, i mean, like i said, with their the yin, and the yang of the situation is well now you're attempting to time the market and that's not necessarily the Best turn around tuesday uh the odds uh. Well, i i guess for specifically tomorrow september 21st, the odds do say turn around tuesday um. That's just it! It's not 100 odd! It's it's about a 60 chance, but it's better than flipping a coin uh.

So that's for tomorrow i mean i i don't know like that's just that's facts. That's not like an opinionated thing of uh, some in-depth breakdown in the situation from 2005. Until now, every time the market has fallen by more than one percent on a monday, if you were to buy tuesday morning and then sell tuesday at close, you would be profitable on 60 of those trades, sixty six zero with a profit factor of like above two. So for every dollar i lost she would have gained two.

So it's a profitable trade, but remember that doesn't tell you anything about one individual trade. It tells you how that methodology and that system would have worked in general over many trades, and just so. You know that training uh it was done on the account of about just over a hundred trades roughly around 100. So it is statistically significant.

Uh red days, no worries what i hate cry: babies here, aloha from hawaii. How do you feel about bros, dutch bros coffee? So it had an impressive ipo i'll give it that um. I just don't really like training ipos, because i'm a very technical trader and there's not much of a chart. I mean it's only been trading for four days so, like i don't know what i would base my chart off of um, it looks like it's trying to break out right now.

Above 48., 48 is actually a very important level for it. If bros gets above 48. I think you might be saying hello to 52 52.54, so if you're in it look for that, i have no bros position, but hey it looks good. Why do some lower volume candles seem to have a greater impact on price example? A 3k red candle drops 40 cents, but other times a 3k drops only five okay um because they don't necessarily have to be related like.

Let's just do a quick thought: experiment: okay, amc! Let's say we could freeze the trading right now and let's call it 39 flat well in the next five-minute bar. If no one in the entire world traded amc, i could come to you and say: hey i'll, buy one share of amc off of you for 80 bucks. It would shoot up from 39 to 80 on a volume of one, because nothing else was traded in that time frame. On the flip side, i could come to you at 38.80 and let's say no one else is trading and i could say i'm gon na buy 12 million off of you and you say great i'll, give it to you at 38.80, so the bar would be very Small but in one scenario the volume's huge and in the other scenario the bar is huge, but the volume is small, that's all possible, you don't necessarily have to have higher volume to have more volatility and more of a range those are commonly together.

But it's not a requirement: do you think uh? They will take away the buy button when people have to cover, who is to say they won't take away again um. No, they could but also remember not. All brokerages did um weeble did robinhood did um these big prime brokers, who are most likely. The ones who are short amc they're not going to take theirs away, and it just has to do with uh their collateral and how well capitalized they are um.

So that buy button thing. It didn't impact everyone in the market. Equally, it mainly impacted retail traders and i don't think, there's many retail traders who are short, amc or gme, but uh i mean to answer your question: could they take away the buy button yeah they could um like like. I think it would in this scenario that robin hood, if it were to do that again, it would be the end of the company like it's one of those things like fool me once and then fool me twice type of a deal, but a lot of people Already, don't trust robin hood? If they did it a second time and screwed over an entire additional group of users, it would be done it would.

The company would go belly up. People would lose a lot of money as in like the investors in the company. The company itself would just dissolve like they would just they're already teetering on the edge of trust with the community and like if they did something like that. So egregious a second time.

It would be game over for them. Are there any rules in place, preventing citadel and virtue trading? The same hundred shares back and forth at a penny, cheaper per transaction agreement to buy and sell with the intent of driving the price down? No, i don't not to my understanding, but remember. Market makers are not directional players, so right here trading, the same 100 shares back and forth at a penny, cheaper per transaction paul for them to pull that off uh you would need a closed system where there's not other people involved and right now there are many People involved in amc and gme, so the fact that there's other participants would mess that entire plan up and also in doing that. Um remember: hedge funds are directional players and market makers are directional players.

I would understand the argument around times of expiration, especially if they're selling a bunch of premium, but it's not a day of expiration and just in the most general sense market makers, they're there to provide liquidity. They don't really care what price the liquidity is being traded at. Thoughts on tesla puts uh a little late to the party. I mean we're already selling off it's off five percent um.

It all comes down to 720. if it can't hold 720 i'd look for 700. If it starts to bounce off of 720, i would look for a return to 750.. People are saying: lucid is ripping nice lucid having a good day green um lucid.

It looks like kind of honestly clear skies up to 25.. So, if you're in that congrats, what is a good burger place like in general um, there's a place in philly? What was the name of it uh spot burger? That was pretty good, but i'm sure there's a lot. What else do we have thoughts on nak knack? Northern dynasty uh, it's just kind of range bound. It's not really moving.

It's successfully gone. Nowhere, just like a 10 cent range. Pretty much all of september looks a bit boring uh. Did you give the dogs a squeaky toys and pizza? Did the blue duck banana t-shirt? Fit gorilla banana koozie, okay have a happy day from ms mooney gooney, robin all right uh, so the shirt definitely fits.

I was actually just wearing it. On saturday i haven't seen uh. I went home to my hometown over the weekend, so i haven't seen those dogs yet franklin and baxter. I'm gon na be giving it to him not this weekend, but next weekend i'm happy to deliver those and uh gorilla banana koozie.

I actually have it right here. I've been using it for like the past three or four days straight uh. It's been awesome, i'm so happy to have it, but shout out robin very, very generous of you mooney gooney, now citadel is technically. Both a market maker and a hedge fund does vertu also have a sister company that acts like a hedge fund.

What stops them from doing these types of downward trades in a training pool um. Once again, you have more participants if you have other participants, they're still training in within the nbbo um. I don't know if vertu has its own hedge fund, i don't believe so, but citadel well, okay, this is where it gets into the legal thing. It is in terms if you're going to get technical from a legal standpoint.

It is two distinct businesses. You have citadel the hedge fund and then you have citadel securities, the market maker, which are under the umbrella company of citadel, both owned and operated by uh griffin um. Now how much of a wall is between them? Well, probably not as much of a wall as we would like to be there um, so that's where it just gets into. I don't even think the legal gray area, i think it's just like.

Okay, legally, they went through the steps they needed to go through to be a distinct company, but in reality, do they act as if they're a distinct company? Well, i wouldn't bet on it. So is the whole market on ssr tomorrow it seems like it andrew. It does seem like it pll being shorted any apes know of this shenanigans. Also, ulta zinc have sing for more batteries in italy.

If anyone's interested, i have a position, not financial advice ping. My pirate in the ping p-l-l shout out burns is that being shorted i'll check it out? Oh wait: what company would this be? I don't know exactly the exchange you're on pll there's a couple plls. Let's see, let's see if i can pick the most realistic one. We have 40 pillars: mining corp.

We have prudential financial and piedmont lithium. Knowing you, i assume burns that you care about piedmont, lithium. I know you've asked about lithium before so. That's the one i'm gon na look into um shares on loan of 23 million utilization of 19 shares on loan 23 million.

So how many shares does it have uh outstanding shares, 1.59 billion 1.59 times 0.18 uh? So that's 286., so it seems like uh, 286 million. It's about 10 8 short interest roughly on pll, i would say all right alex. Can you look at mttr looking to buy uh a dip on it and looking for next level of support mttr? Another one? That's actually shorted um! Yes, so this one had a great run, looks like it's taking a breather. I would watch 18, maybe 19, but i would personally be watching 18.

That's how i would play just previous levels of yeah. I would definitely be watching 18 and look for the bounce off of that. Basically on this, instead of a price level, just look for it to start to pull a u-turn. You might just be setting up for somewhat of a cup and handle um.

I would just look for it to trade down down down and look for the green to start to bend back around on it all right. What else do we have bbig whales and vortex bbig bbig, vinco ventures? Short interest? 22.43 percent shares on loan 22.5 million utilization 90 in terms of unusual whales, come on uh, bulls dominating, but just slightly 51 to 49 on the day, all right. What else do we have please speculate and provide analysis on how much this dip is a sell-off institution or retail or increased short positions? Um not increase short positions. The data is not representative of that.


20 thoughts on “Ep 78 is the market crashing? dumb money w/ matt”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars The drew says:

    Remember, Turn around Tuesdays!!!

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nathan Hobart says:

    Dont worry about whos convinced. The people who are so worried about having everyone convinced arent 100% convinced themselves!

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Matt R says:

    Sept 20th and 21st thr Chinese Market is closed for Mid-Autumn Festival. Wed could be even more red for the global market.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Thomas Harris says:

    Hey All,, You Tube Patrick Boyle, Evergrande Chrisis Intensifies,,, Your Thoughts After Watching

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Charlotte Williams says:

    I'm 15 and getting financial education from you and other creators, I'm way ahead of kids my age for finances, I've made 7850 US dollars and I'm investing it into crypto and Chevron!!

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 67cccc says:

    So much for AMC squeeze…
    This guy is not to be trusted

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Janie Cakes says:

    How did that happen lol. German and polish grandparents? Woahhh nelly. You think there was tension? Ha. Good sense of humor. Lemme guess your Grandmotter was Polish โค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธ

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mike jah says:

    Investing in Crypto right now will be the wisest thing to do as the market is much favourable right now to invest ๐Ÿ’ฏ

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars QuantumBlue101 says:

    I'm so excited for tomorrow to be a green day just to have Wednesday, Thursday and Friday being red!!

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Rena Doll says:

    Shib is the next coin to break out guys its currently under a penny get in to catch the ride

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Benjamin Maier says:

    very informative video you have here, there are several reasons why investment advisors and high net worth investors including major Banks are recognising the benefits of Bitcoin in their strategic asset allocation. Key among them are portfolio diversification, the upside potential versus other assets, and future adoption potential with others like ETFs. (countries like Germany are taking the lead already). So far my trading experience has been awesome for years with the teachings of career trader Pulido Greene who has been my portfolio strategist. I started with little over 4BTC, so far i've accumulated more than 6BTC after taxes.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mike Turner says:

    Really Matt? You support coinbase? They are nothing but trouble, they have no customer support…they've had me under review for over 3 months with no reply.
    I honestly don't think you should be supporting them.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars David Wright, Keller Williams Realty says:

    Executed my plan today Matt! Turned ATER profits into a free infinity long call on ATER, BBIG additive buy & AMC additive buy. Playing the long game across the board!

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ron in Atlanta says:

    Hold the line you crazy APES. Not happy about being down today but I'm staying strong. Read the data

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Milky miller says:

    Bitcoin is the future ,investing in it now is the wisest thing to do now especially the current rise
    Despite all the economic crisis this is the right time to start up an investment

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Thomas Pham says:

    Time for shopping ? be picky tho ๐Ÿ˜€

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars William Jackson says:

    Timepiece Trading= FUD+Shill๐Ÿ˜‚

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars badboygaming1231 says:

    Big cup and handle on the 6 month

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TimePiece Trading says:

    I sold amc and I ainโ€™t looking back

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Caleb Davis says:

    Either I lose all my money or I'm fucking rich ion care anymore ๐Ÿ’€๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

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