Fortune Favors The Bold
Dumb Money Ep. 86: AMC, GameStop & Crypto
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Foreign, hello, hello, hello, apes. I hope you had an absolutely fantastic weekend. Hello, hello, hello, hello, hello, hello. Welcome! Welcome, welcome, welcome, monday september 27th and kind of an interest actually very interesting developments.

Over the weekend, i felt a little bit out of the loop. If i'm being honest, i wasn't uh really on technology over the weekend and then i come back and some of the things that i'm reading and seeing going on. That is like clearly impactful on the ape community whoa whoa whoa whoa, whoa whoa. Everyone went full, oh brother, on me over the weekend and uh we're we're just seeing some crazy things and uh really what i'm like.

There's a couple things going on, but the main thing i'm referring to as i was diving into some of the the legal happenings and developments related to robin hood and all that stuff seems absolutely ridiculous. Um bbig a couple things i uh bbig. I see what this is doing. Uh.

We have some things to talk about here as well. We have a lot to talk about before the the market gets uh gets going. So with all that being said, apes. I hope you had an absolutely phenomenal weekend.

I hope you're got some rest relaxation ready to go for really the final couple trading days here in september, but let's hop right into it because, like i said we do have quite a few things to go over. So just highest level thing wall street looks under pressure with just days left in september. So a lot of this. It's kind of the exact same thing.

Now we've been talking about for two weeks, so we have seasonal weakness until the remainder of september a little bit at the start of october and then from there till the end of the year, pretty much bullish from a seasonal standpoint. But this particular september. There are other various things going on uh within the u.s. We have obviously always political gridlock.

Like can you even talk about the united states without political gridlock anyway, debt ceiling keep your eye on that previously, the the tensions related to the real estate company over in china evergreen. Those are easing up. So that's kind of okay like it's, not okay, like there's. Still, debt that has to be paid a lot of money that has to be paid.

In fact, i think in three days two days i think the 29th um there's another payment, that's due, so we could keep our eyes on that, but i think it's calming down and then also the fomc stuff related to the federal reserve that stuff's also calming down A little bit so i think right now we have seasonality and also the debt ceiling stuff going on pushing it. But just remember seasonally. We are still weak till the end of september start of october and then from there till the end of the year, pretty pretty bullish. All right treasury yield jumps at a busy week for fed's powell.

That's not too impactful like at least for us in the nation. Right now i mean we've already talked about it: um votes coming in infrastructure, debt ceiling, federal funding, so this is actually what i was just referring to and i think we are getting a vote pretty soon because they have to have something up and ready to go By september 30th, i'm not seeing a date right here. Investors will be watching congress this week as lawmakers attempt to pass the funding in time to avert a government shutdown on friday. The debt ceiling so basically game times this week for the government they have up until friday, they have to get rocking today, tomorrow, the next day they have to get something passed, so keep your eyes on that.
That will have an impact on the overall market and the overall market, obviously trickles down to our individual stocks. Tesla ceo musk praises china for a second time this month, obviously he's trying to play nice uh. He knows that china not only being a massive market, but they also have an abnormal appetite for ev vehicles, tesla being the biggest ev company in the entire world. One of the biggest companies just straight out in the entire world, he's trying to play a nice business.

Move, google cuts cloud commissions, facebook delays, instagram, kids, um. I was looking a little bit more into this instagram kids thing uh. I guess my thought from it is is what why whoever thought this was a good idea. Facebook announced monday morning it's pausing its work on instagram for kids after facing a slew of backlash from users and lawmakers.

While we believe building instagram kids is the right thing to do. Instagram and its parent company facebook will re-evaluate the project at a later date. The company said in a statement that kids app was supposed to allow children under 13 to access a new version of photo sharing social media service. Um.

I've heard a lot a lot of stupid things. I've heard many many stupid things in my life, and this is probably one of the dumbest things that they were trying to build. An instagram for kids for kids. Children under 13.

talk talk about just a dumb ass, half-baked idea, uh. I hope this later date is just like whatever public relations jargon for saying: oh no, no, no. We realize how stupid that is, and we will make sure to like never ever make sure like we that this should not be seeing the light of day. But anyway, that's just kind of like some broad stuff.

That's going on. Let's talk more specifically about some of the interesting developments, and just so you know this. If you want to read it in detail, i did post it to twitter. At least i think i posted it to twitter yeah.

I posted it here. So if you want all the information to read it yourself, uh, but some cool cool stuff coming here, here's what robinhood executives allegedly said internally at the height of the gamestop short squeeze. So about two days ago there were some public releases of what's going on in the current one of the current cases against robin hood. Just so you know, i say one because there are various federal and state level cases, but definitely some interesting developments.
New documents revealed in a lawsuit allegedly shows internal conversations between executives during the height of january's meme stock chaos. In one instance, robin hood chief operating officer, gretchen howard, acknowledges that the startup was facing a major liquidity crisis, which is very interesting you're about to find out. According to the suit publicly right here, the company's chief executive was saying the opposite, so you had vlad ten of the boy from bulgaria going up doing all this talks being like this isn't a problem we haven't under control, yada yada, but the chief operating officer internals, Like no like shit's, hitting the fan so um to my like i'm no lawyer, i'm no financial advisor. I'm none of this.

I'm just sharing my comments. That's it but me without having the legal advice, seems that it's pretty bad, that publicly you're standing one thing and internally there's like just it's that meme with the dog and he's like i'm fine and everything's on fire. Uh not a good situation, and this does pour over into. I would at least say some interesting implications.

Allegations surrounding citadel. This clearing thing seems pretty scary. To me i would say it's our biggest fire right now, robin hood's director of engineering said in a slack message. According to the lawsuit, so lots of great information in here - actually i haven't seen this video.

So let's watch that, but some highlights i want to bring to your attention. According to the suit, in one instance, robin hood chief operating officer, gretchen messaged internally, that the startup was facing a major liquidity crisis publicly, the company's chief executive said the opposite. There was no liquidity problem, ceo of latent, told cnbc's andrew ross sorkin a day later. On january 29th, which the that would be the friday of the week that things were going like insane, uh other good stuff here, robin hood and its higher ups were well aware of this tidal wave of volume and volatility that was heading in their direction.

This was, according to the pesa law group, most likely i'm pronouncing that incorrectly. My apologies, if you're listening in our opinion, we as we allege in the lawsuit they didn't, do their jobs and what they are required to do in terms of analyzing risk and managing risks. As a broker, uh yeah, i 100 agree, and maybe i don't know it from like a legal standpoint, but just to for your duty as a broker. It should never get so bad that you're realizing a situation and then not allowing people to continue to buy.

So remember with robin hood and many other brokerages, it wasn't just robin hood, but robin hood has become uh kind of the symbol of what went wrong in january february of earlier this year, especially related to gamestop and later it also became strongly related to amc. But they just stopped the buying, you could not buy shares, you could sell shares and these brokerages and remember other brokerages. You could still easily buy and sell whenever you wanted to, but it just so happened where a lot of retail traders were finding themselves, especially on applications and brokerages such as robinhood. They did stop the purchasing, and that was for a while and then after that uh.
They started lighting it up like oh, you can buy one share, you can buy five shares. You can buy ten shares that type of deal, but right here, like that's their job, so just like from the high higher level view they were. Oh, that was the service. They were expected to provide and they were not providing the service of their business.

So right there to me, that's a failure in another message. The company acknowledged blowback from this is going to be exponentially worse as time goes on and they were worried about the long-term effects of this um. I agree uh, i think even this like it seems like they someone. There was speaking a little bit of truth of saying, hey man like this.

This is probably going to get really bad. I mean look at our name. Does anyone know the mythological story of robin hood? It seems like we're going against our own name stake here. Um - and so this is accurate, but i i think this is really even an underestimation of how much the damage is to their company.

I don't i to me, i don't know even with if you have the most fancy smarty pr person out there. I i just don't know how they're ever gon na get away from this. I really don't, because now literally, everyone is almost conditioned that whenever you say anything about robin hood, you automatically think oh, like screwing over its clients, uh, i i just it's it's. I don't know how it gets better.

I don't i don't know people hate them. I don't know how they ever walk this back and regain the public's trust. A little bit different sec chairman gary gensler is expected to publish a report on the gamestop saga in the coming weeks, as well as recommendations on what, if any changes should be made to the u.s trading system as a result. So all this is pretty interesting, but i do find this whenever it comes to specifically the report and sec and gary gensler.

For this, like one very specific thing, uh, i do get a little bummed out because the first time we heard about it keeps getting pushed back they're like we're gon na get it to you, we're going to get it to you, we're going to get it to You and then gary gensler was talking in front of the government and they're like hey, when's, that coming and he's like. Oh this gamestop report, i thought it was weird i was like. Why are you quoting it like? Did you even put in an effort, and then right here when they're doing the write-ups, as well as recommendations on what, if any, as if as if someone with a brain stem, is looking at this and they're like we don't even know if we need a fixing They're, like there's a good chance that everything ran smoothly like. Are you kidding me? So i don't know, i i see a lot of like gary gensler himself - mainstream media everyone's setting itself up in a certain sense of like hang on like maybe this is all fine, like.
Maybe there's nothing to fix here like let's just like. Are you kidding me and from the the get go well really shout out to keith gill, but like after that, the entire ape community that was created like from keith gill, then read it and then it spread. And then you had this entire community. That entire group is the people that are like no something's, not right.

This is not how our market should be moving and yet we're the dumb money we don't know what's going on. How can we possibly understand anything about stock market plumbing? Well, the more and more that comes out and you're going to see like really to me the interesting thing, at least i would imagine from the standpoint of i guess, lawyers and our government and all that is these: the discussions that we're seeing between gretchen, howard and Vlad and then they're talking to some people over at citadel talking about how there is liquidity problems like this. This does not seem good like i. This is what round like 18 of the awful pr nightmare for them, uh interesting interesting before we watch this video.

I haven't seen this video. It might be interesting, but one thing i have to let you know is right here: kathy wood buys another 6.5 million in robin hood uh, also robin hood reports, partial outage for cryptocurrency training on its platform anyway. So, just more robin hood stuff, i'm kind of bummed out i like kathy wood. I really do, i think, she's an innovator uh.

I think she's done some amazing things and i i find it. I don't know bothersome that like well, first of all, just even from an investment standpoint, i don't know why she would be getting in in robin hood even from like a fundamental thing, i'm like what are you looking at that makes you want to get into it, But then also just more of the the public appeal of just the optics of it um, so i just want to let you know i i do find it bothersome uh. I i guess i was, or am i i don't know, i'm working through some of some of my own emotions on how i feel about kathy wood at this point in time. Um, i don't know i just i just wish she was never buying robin hood.

That would make make my own emotional standpoint on this way way easier, but let's check out what this video is about, maybe there's something cool in it. Let me make sure the the audio is up for all of you. Hey john. This lawsuit gives a new look inside the room, or at least the chat rooms over at robinhood during the gamestop short squeeze.
These internal conversations from back in january show debates over how bad it could get some panic over capital requirements and a direct contradiction of what robinhood ceo told cnbc's andrew ross sorkin at the time on january 28th, the company's coo messaged internally that robin hood quote had A major liquidity issue - ceo vlad tenef, meanwhile denied that, in an interview with andrew that week, though, robina did move to change stocks like gamestop and amc to what they call position close only meaning that people could sell, but they couldn't buy in response to that decision. Another executive says we're going to get crucified for those restrictions. It's a quote, horrible, look, they say for a the wider brokerage industry and meanwhile, the ceo of robin hood financial, that's a subsidiary of robin hood, saying that the company was quote too big for them to actually shut us down, he's referring there to its clearing agency And in another conversation with ceo vladtena, they talk about implementing something called code. Yellow an engineer says that maybe we should consider an all hands on deck situation.

Tenf seems to agree and says quote only the paranoid survive. All of this guys came out as part of discovery in a class-action lawsuit. The plaintiff's lawyer argues that robin hood didn't do enough to protect investors and kept its doors open unbeknownst to the general public. While it was teetering on the verge of collapse and in response robinhood says we dispute the plaintiff's allegations, the communications are consistent with robin's focus to take appropriate incremental measures to mitigate risk.

Guys back to you to me, this sounds like a code red kate. I guess my question is obviously the company has changed quite a bit since they had this moment of crisis about nine months ago, but do these interactions do those messages reveal persistent problems that could still be at the company today. So that's what the lawyers argue. Well, it is sort of a look at this one-time event.

They called it a four sigma event at the time, and the company has argued that there's nothing that they could have done. This was unforeseen and that all of the measures they had in place were appropriate and the problem was solved. The lawyers meanwhile say that some of the conversation conversations show that the executives here knew this was coming. They called it a title wave of volatility and said that there wasn't enough attention paid and they meanwhile were focused more on things like the super bowl ad marketing and adding new users, so a difference of opinion there.

But it's interesting. We had bob passante reporting this week on gary gensler, coming out with a report on this entire saga. People have been waiting for that for months and i'm told that the sec and finra also have access to these documents. So it'll be interesting to see.

If there's anything in there that actually comes out in a follow-up report from gary gensler, how do i cancel all right, so uh very, very interesting uh? Does it drive seriously? Very very honestly: does it drive anyone else insane like i? Maybe maybe i need to talk to someone about this, but, like i get so absurdly irate when i just see how fickle this is so cnbc and jim cramer are very much associated together, uh through whatever legal and also just like they get along. They have a lot of business dealings together, so for a while there, it it's just their buddy buddies. Like i mean we even saw like sorkin kramer and vlad tennis, like those guys like they're. All i don't know they're they're like they're they're, together like they like each other.
They support each other. It's like this is great. This is one of the biggest innovators of our time. Democratizing finance awesome, awesome, awesome, buddy, buddy, buddy buddy, and then it's just so fickle and i know a lot of you listening right now.

You're, like dumb man like that's what media is you're gon na be fickle you're gon na chase, whatever the public is perceived to like at that time, and there's like no backbone to either standing with it or like not staying with it and attacking like it's. Unfortunately, it seems like we have a lot more cronyism going on than journalism. I guess is my point and i hate it, though, because it's always pitched to us as if it's not cronyism like no. No.

This is just like what we do, but, like you can tell like how long has kramer been like no uh like robin hood's a buy. I like robin he's like dude. What are you doing? Man like? I just don't get it. It drives me up a freaking wall that it really is cronyism over journalism.

There is a, in my opinion, a big vacuum of journalistic integrity of, what's going on, because they're always looking at themselves of like all right who's. Our sponsors, like do. I have a piece of the ipo and it just it's very, very unfortunate that maybe there's various people out there who started the career with the intentions of like i want to spread the truth as efficiently and as um as well articulated as i possibly can, and Then, whatever time goes on things develop, you make friends with the right people and all of a sudden. It's like you see your your bank account getting fatter, but you don't.

I don't know like then, like all of a sudden, your your morals start to erode a little bit here, a little bit there, and i know some of you listening right now like what do you mean starting to a road like i get it, i get that There's some people out there who already started in a very, very bad moral position, and it just like, has never improved, but it's just the the fickle nature of all of it. It's like one day. This is the best greatest company ever the very next day. It's like, oh, no, no! No, this is a code red like they should have never done this.
Like look at this like we're on your side, we've been calling it from the starts. Like i don't know it's who do they think they're kidding like uh? That's i don't know, that's what drives me up the wall, one of the many things one of the many many things all right, so that's kind of. What's going on with robin hood uh, i know some people are messaging about bbig. So before we get into amc and gme and the overall market and that stuff, i do have some quick commentary on bbig, bbig, okay, so right here, good shot, you're going to see some places, reporting 260 on bbig bbig is having a great morning.

It's up. 18 uh you're going to see some new sources or data providers talking. I i think super super high percentages, but uh i was already in contact. I saw, i think it was the short interest of 261 percent you're gon na see some um.

Unfortunately, it's not that high, the numbers aren't really adding up. I reached out to or text i was like. Can you explain to me like what's going on? This is directly from the founder and creator of vortex in reference to bbig. We are not able to confirm the idea that bbig has a short interest of 260 percent of free flow.

In fact, we are quite confident that, with a free flow of 84 million shares, as we show or 87 million shares, as e-trade is showing the short interest is in the order of 21 million shores shares instead of like that 80 or relative to the 84 free Flow so once again, short interest is in the order of 21 million shares or 25 of the free flow at the end of thursday, and our intraday data suggests that this has dropped on friday. Although we will get confirmation on friday's confirmed figures shortly from our data. The only way the short interest can be 260 percent of free float, they would be using a very different value of free float or there is an error in their calculation as a check. We know that for september 15th the exchange reported short interest to be 21.3 million.

260 percent of free float would be around 220 million shares, so there would need to be an extra 200 million new shorts since september 15th. Last week, the entire trading volume was only 181 million, so that seems very unlikely. So once again, that is the update from ortex trying to explain the number. It seems like this, this concept of the short interest being 260.

It seems like there's a data error that is being like that's caused and being pushed out there from e-trade. So is it 260 percent high high likelihood that the answer is no for bbig, but with that being said, it is still a very high short interest. We're talking 26.1 percent the shares on loan around 28.5 million utilization 96 people we know, are paying attention to bbig aka finco ventures, so um. I just want to clarify where the numbers are at, but then even with the correction.

Even if you come in at the most conservative floor value possible, there's still like a lot of potential upside and enough powder in this keg for an explosion on bbig. I just want us to. I guess live in the realm of, like the is most likely what the correct numbers are, but that doesn't mean like. Oh, this isn't going to move, no there's there's a good chance, it can move, but some of the data that's being pushed out by e-trade is a little bit incorrect.
Just so everyone knows just so. Everyone knows all right now: let's talk about some of the other things going on overall market uh slight gap down today actually looks like it's gapping down by a dollar the s p 500. We have had this nice push over the past five days, so i'm gon na look for this support at 441, basically and see how it reacts there. That's for the s p, 500, nasdaq, also gapping down all the major indices are gapping down a little bit.

This morning uh we have q support at 369 and some change russell 2000. Oh sorry, i didn't realize this had actually come up on the day. Russell 2000: hey! That's good for amc, amc, the biggest company in the russell 2000, showing a little bit of premium like pre-market strength, pre-opening strength. Let's see this push through at 224 and some change, and i wanted this push then, after that to 226.

in terms of amc uh. So we closed out on friday above 40 4001. I, like that uh. I want to see a continuation of 41.50.

This is the high from september 21st right after that that puts us in striking distance uh in the very short term. My amc goal is still this gap: phil, 44, 20 um very, very easy, i'm just looking at the fallout from september 17th, just looking for this gap, phil as a short term. I want to see that i want to see the reaction and obviously fingers crossed for a continuation past it. But i i'm a fan of gap, though plays amc uh, even if it wasn't like the stock that we knew of like the symbol of all this crazy movement, i would currently like the stock simply just for that gap.

Bill uh, even if i didn't know any of the other insanity just so you know uh in terms of support. There is support in the mid-37s, so we'll be watching that more from like not really a fundamental kind of related to the box office, marvel's shanxi has become the top grossing movie at the north american box office this year, bringing in 187 million according to comscore. In second place is another marvel movie blockbuster black widow, so black widow actually being dethroned by shangti a lot of people still watching movies a lot of money flowing into the box office. That's a great thing! I'm getting this information from morning brew! If you don't know who morning brew, is it's a free morning newsletter where they just kind of give you a rundown on what's going on in the world, so it's nice that they were able to give us that box office update of what is and isn't happening, But uh wrap up dethroning black widow top grossing movie at the north american box office.
This year, lots of money, 187 million lots of money coming into the movie theater gme uh we're up slightly in pre-market. So we have this support at 185-ish. The main support i've been watching is from 188 to 190.. I would be looking for gme to recapture that and then i want to see it push above the key psychological level at 200..

We kind of have this. I don't know in a certain way. This is not sometimes wrong with the wicks. It gets like really messy with this, but a little bit of a flag situation, a very, very ugly flag.

I would just honestly just prefer that gme catch itself push 200 and let's go battle up 212 to 215.. Currently, training at 185, looking for it to catch itself very very soon, but just so you know it does have additional support at 178.. Let's talk about these numbers going back for a second for amc, because i forgot to cover this they've already borrowed 439 000 shares against it today. That puts the short interest at 20.55 percent.

The shares on loan is 113.5 million, and the utilization is 88 in terms of gme gamestop. They borrowed 17.5 000 shares against it. The short interest is at 13.5 shares on loan, almost 8 million 7.88 million, and the utilization is 35 in terms of crypto. Just so, you know uh we kind of got that balance, but then with china once again reiterating that they're banning it, which we already know uh it kind of got hit so now they're a little bit sideways a little bit up.

So right now crypto not doing a crazy amount but worthwhile. I think it'll start trending soon we actually had a nice bounce going, but um all of it sold off on friday. When china, like, i said once again reiterated that they are in no way fans of it. Uh the people's bank of china, pboc um, saying that all crypto transactions are illegal.

The market didn't like it, but it really wasn't new news. I mean it's the type of stuff that we have literally they've, already said that so many other times but uh, for whatever reason, the markets continue to react to the exact same announcement that we've already been hearing, but let's get ready um. We have about a minute about 70 seconds into the market, gets going, let's zoom in, i dropped it to the one minute chart. Let's get going, let's see what this week hey it's a monday.

Folks, let's have a great week great great week. I see some people talking about atr a little bit into market open i'll, go over that. It's just we're running low on time, a lot of news to go over this morning, but we'll check out atr i'll, give you the ortex we'll go through that um. I know i haven't gotten to any of these chats either, but uh i'll i'll scroll back.

I try i'll try to find them, write down any requests or anything of those that nature and won't we'll hit it hard today. Folks, let's go, we have about oh 30 seconds all right. Let me check one thing: let's get rockin on the day rocking on the day, hey all right. We are looking good good good.
Let's get the bell ready! Oh, i'm ready i'm ready for the week moon gang. This is our time to shine. This is what we were born for. This is what we practiced all year, for the casino is open.

Let's do this thing. Super chat, whoa, whoa, whoa brother. Let's get rockin! I, like the russell showin a little bit of strength there, all right, amc above 40, already it's at 40, 30. Gm at 187.

Remember we're watching that 188 to 190 level on gme very another thing related to gme like i'm. This report needs to come out. I feel like we've been waiting on it forever, like i don't know what what's going on there, but uh seems like it's been installed or i don't. I don't know what's going on there, but i would very much like for that to like officially come out.

So we can get some info on what is or isn't going on all right, so as the markets figuring out what it wants to do for the morning, let's do some of these matt. We talked last week about atr. I did end up picking up. 22 000 shares.

Maybe i have two moon seeds now any thoughts on the market open for ater. Here, let me just sorry: i missed this ater already up five percent, it's at 13.50 uh that 1350 to 1370 level. That is a previous region where it's stalled out. If it gets above 1370 and can hold here, i mean you're, potentially looking at the door of.

Let me just double check like 15 plus, but look at this we're swinging back around uh. You could draw a trend line on the top here, but both ater and bbig, like they're flexing today, like it feels like we're gon na, have a pretty crazy opening a pretty crazy day, um in fact atr. Here, let me go atr one of these bbig. Just i want to be completely transparent, just so everyone watching knows uh.

I do have an amc, gme position, i'm long on both those shares, no options at the moment in time. I have no bbig, no ater position uh. Hopefully that means that some of my commentary will be like unbiased for you uh, since i don't really have like. I don't know skin in the game on these particular ones, um just trying to be a bit transparent.

So everyone knows expectations for spy today, um. So a mixed bag, for sure i mean so we have the russell opening up and uh continuing to look strong, yeah 224 15, but then the qs and the spy themselves were down a little bit um the cues, some things developing in the tech sector. I think spy it's gon na, be, i think it's gon na be kind of a weird week until we get more development with the debt ceiling and what's going on with the government so like right here, i think there's gon na be some chop and like some Some whip sawing action, but look for maybe a solid trend to develop when we figure out what is going on with the government and that could be to the upside or the downside. In all reality, i'm just not sure uh, but i'm expecting some people being a little bit a little bit risk off until we get some better direction from our government trying to learn.
Uh, thanks for everything shout out hang on on the amc chart yeah uh i mean it should be a little bit skinnier if you're referring to the candle on friday, but your head's at the right spot for sure good good chart analysis on atr the short interest Of free flow is 8.4 million, but shares on loan is 16.5 million. Can we assume, since it can't be proven that they are using borrowed shares to deliver ftds since there are shares, need to be bought? We can raise this short interest of free float, since they wouldn't mean the same hey. I need to reread that on atr. The short interest of free flow is 8.4 million, but remember that's estimated, but the shares on loan is 16.5 million.

That's from 85 percent of transactional volume that ortex is collecting. Can we assume, since it can't be proven that they are using borrowed shares to deliver ftds uh no to deliver? I don't know if you could safely assume that, since there are shares, since those are shares that need to be bought, can we raise the short interest of free float since they mean the same wall street viking - i'm a bit confused here since they need to be Bought since those are shares that need to be bought, those are shares that need to be borrowed most likely to take care of the ftds not bought like they would have to be borrowed and transferred to whoever was actually previously short. So they have a legal, legitimate short position um and when you do that the short interest is going to go up, the estimated short interest will go up as the more and more shares go on. Loan like are actually being loaned out and in terms of the exchange, reported short interest.

Well, that's the one that's running two weeks late and like it'll go higher and higher uh. The more there's like re uh, like legitimately, reported short positions. Um. I think i'm talking about uh wall street viking.

I think we're on a different page, though, potentially i'm a little confused camh, let's freaking go hey brother. I went ahead and sent you a link for the dad bod competition on twitter. Please help me share and get some more votes, so i can get more bananas for attendees shout out david uh. I have a lot of messages to cut up catch up on folks, i'm way way behind, but uh.

Hopefully we can get there yeah wall street viking. I know sometimes there's only um, so many characters and it's hard to get across these specific ideas. Uh rolls royce blue today. Good work, amc next, hey matt, first time watching on an iphone 13 pro max solid af.

I, like vlta, is a long play with your opinion. Let's get this going thanks for what you do shout out to the guys and gals like you shout out, mikey p. Let me hang on. Let me write this down uh just so i don't forget it.
We will come back to vlta, shout out mikeyp v, lta vlta, all right, all right, all right, all right, all right market starting to get a little bit of uh candles built out today. So bbig atr both pushed this morning at er, getting smacked just below 14 bbig getting smacked at like 7.75 um. Not too bad, i mean we, we saw some selling but let's see like. Obviously these things are lower float, so they're very whippy.

They can move quite a bit uh. So, let's see if some buyers are gon na step in or if this was just like a first three five minute fluke: amc training at 40, 37 right now, gme trading at 187.80. Now that china banned kryptos out of mayor and still going to accept doge uh well, he never officially said they're going to accept doge. They said like.

Does the community want it? A lot of people said: yes, they said they're going to look into it, but china's developments are not new developments, so it's not um as if i don't think in why i don't see how adam aaron would be weighing in what china is or isn't doing. As a country for like payment acceptance like for them uh, i don't think there'll be anything like that. Can you check the short share? Availability on naked, a lot of people are saying, there's zero. I find that hard to believe there's a good chance that they're looking at fintel, which is exclusively getting data from that's exclusively getting data from interactive brokers, which is just one brokerage.

So it's it's accurate. It's just not anywhere close to the full picture um, but even with that being said, the utilization. What i'm seeing from ortex is 99.99 and they've already borrowed another 2 million against nakd today, um, so there's a very good shot that the utilization is maxed out at 100 on nakd, but just so everyone knows i would not consider nakd to be uh current estimated Short interest, so it its short interest appears to be sub 10 percent. Does that make sense, though um nakd, like i said, the utilization is very high.

It's kind of a mid float uh, it's not a low float, but i don't think it's on the ftd list. Um, i i personally think there's better opportunities than nakd, but it sounds like it's moving today. So if you're in it i mean congratulations. Uh i mean it's up a nice 12 percent, i'm just not the biggest fan of this particular company and then, when you do in some of it's like it's a penny stock, it's a mid flow.

It's not on the threshold list um! I i'm just not. I think there's better opportunity but hey if you're in it, i'm not even i'm, not betting on it against it. Anything like that, if you're in it, i hope you are making money. I just think, there's currently better setups in the market than um nakd.

I remember what i said about tesla last week, up 46 since then looks like holding headed to 780 thoughts, so jeremy, i actually very much agree with you and you nailed that call. Last week after holding 76 760 tesla was having a very difficult time breaking out. Above that um it finally got there, and then i was calling out 780 um. It was just the next pretty obvious level uh, it's just next resistance where it's battled out and it looks like today.
We hit 779.88 so thus far off by 12 cents. But let's see if this keeps pushing after 780 you're pretty much talking about that key magnet level of 800.. That's an eng yeah captain mexico. Let me write that down e-n-g-e-n-g all right, we'll come back to that! E-N-G got it got it got it got it got it got it all: right, amc, app, low, yeah, super low volume, whoa amc and gme um, just really not much volume, not much volatility and uh.

The reason why it's worthwhile to point that out right now to me. That means it's not necessarily the most ideal time to get into options because, like even if you're getting some of the direction right, if volatility is still going down, a phenomena referred to as iv crush. That's gon na not be bueno for your options positions. So i would be careful with options at the moment on either of these.

Until we see some volume volatility return all right there, we go all right so bbig. Let me know if this starts pushing 770 again how's the russell looking russell kind of selling off right here, interesting, interesting, interesting, the russell, the russell. Let's see, if it's just i mean we do, have support at 223 and a half uh. I wonder if it's just going to base there, are we going to see a higher low, um amc fighting back? We see some money coming back in it's at 40 21.

So not much of a range on it right now, but with that, when i say lower volume, lower volatility, not much of a range, you could strongly argue that that's a very, very common ebb and flow cycle of the stock market of an etf of an individual Stock, you commonly see these periods of consolidation like where it's not moving, much and then periods of expansion where there's an explosion. That's like the ebb and flow of it like a move, move not moving really much so with it. The this you're not going to have stocks that move all day every day and do nothing else, they're going to move they're going to take a break they're going to move they're going to take a break, so it seems like right now: amc and jimi. We were seeing earlier september like late august earlier september, we saw nice movement, we saw an increase in volume and increase in volatility and right now, it's more of that.

The consolidation where it's like - okay - it's not as i guess like dramatic of movement and just understand that that doesn't mean in any way like the bulls are winning the bears are winning the apes are winning the snakes are winning that really like has no indication there. It's just this is a natural flow. This is like common things that we see in the market um, so i don't want anyone to panic and be like whoa whoa, like i'm. Expecting these huge moves all the time i had forty dollars, kyle expire in the money.
I tried to roll, but i never exercised so about 100 shares accidentally. What should i do? I mean if you like, the shares, keep the share. I don't know like it depends keith. If you want the shares or not uh.

I don't know if, like my input, can tell you something that's more like advantageous of, like oh played this way to be more profitable at you're. Just at the point of like do you want those shares or not want those shares? Matt take a look at something. I came across about kathy wood and arc, invest the truth about kathy wood in arkhamvest by dario brown on youtube. Oh, let me write that down um.

I know we were talking a little bit about her this morning with uh buying. I guess an extra 6.5 million dollars worth of robin hood dario brown uh the truth about the truth, all right sweet. I will definitely check that out might be something interesting to share with the group all right, so iwm bouncing here. Let's how's atr doing we are they knocked it below 13.

You definitely want atr to catch itself very quickly and just stay. We want this thing back above 13. bbig. What's the overall market doing spy trying to bounce qqq interesting, interesting, interesting, all right, let's see if the iwm is going to get going today, 220 450 right, like this, is kind of a a breakout level for it.

The reason i'm watching this intently right now is because it seems look at these charts. The russell 2000 amc looking pretty pretty similar thus far this morning, so i'm going to leave these up just so, you can see the impact of the biggest stock within this particular index. Indice um. Once again, amc is the biggest uh biggest exposure within the russell 2000 uh russell 2000 um about 2 000 small cap stocks and amc.

The biggest one represents about point five percent uh exposure of the entire index, which is actually very, very big when you're talking about through two thousand to be point: five percent - that's that's crazy! Um! So, let's see how these get going. Today, um we have the qs trying to make their potential bounce back around the cues. We saw this at the end of last week being relatively weak compared to the russell 2000 spy like it was still green, but we just saw that other things were moving a bit better is the spy yeah the spy is coming back. So the cues - i guess, are just a little bit late to the party today, a little bit late.

All right, amc hanging out in the low 40s gme uh, 188 gme hasn't even traded. A quarter million shares yet today very very low volume on gme super low volume. Actually, let me put bbig up here just so. People who are interested in it can get a quick read there.

We go bbig, perfect, perfect, perfect! Let me just move some of this. So my big head's not in the way all right, the russell's, still moving still moving all right. What else do we have at? Our short interest was 60 on friday and now 28 on ortex. Let me check that out.
Okay, so ater, let's get some numbers for everyone. Is this not loading a tyrian, a tyrianitarianitarian? Okay? So i'm seeing a short interest of 29.33 shares on loan of 16.5 million and a utilization of 99.75, so the 24th was what day yeah. So the reason why we're seeing a little bit more of a jump in short interest is because here i could explain this right here - all right right here. Let me zoom in let's get some good info, so the release date for the most recently reported exchange exchange reported short interest.

So it was valid data for september 15th, but it came out on the 24th release versus settlement and with it you could just see that right here there must have been a difference in the estimation, so on september 15th ortex was estimating 12.6 million shares short, but The exchange reported short interest coming from finra came in at 7.5 million, so their model was overestimating it to the tune of about what five million shares. So that's why you see this drop off is because of the model recalibration um. So when you see the like kind of dramatic jumps in short interest, i would look be like oh hang on. Is it a model issue of what they're estimating and you could check out to see if one came out recently and it did on friday? So if it came out on friday, that means they calibrated it over the weekend and now we're dealing with the new numbers, but that's still a very high short interest.

29.33 percent still like considerably high all right. We don't need this anymore, but if you're on ortex - and you see some of these changes - definitely uh check that out. That's also why we saw a little bit of a decrease in what was going on with gamestop. So gamestop was pushing the realm of 15 and then it dropped about one full percent.

There uh same thing calibration just model stuff, going on same thing, all right, the q's trying to do their thing. Let's see if this is going to keep going russell 2000. Looking strong, i honestly at this point i thought that would be playing out better for amc. Maybe amc is just lagging a little bit behind, but the strength in the small cap sector right now, since 9 41 on the one minute chart all we've seen are green bars.

So i'm a little bit surprised that amc's not pushing this 40, 40, 50 level, 40 and a half. But let's see how this plays out. Man gme no volume, no volatility. I very much want this to start moving again how's the spy looking spy ah 443.

Another v shape would we see the v shape on friday morning on thursday, one day last week we saw a very similar v shape where it sold off, and then they perfectly bought it back up kind of some interesting stuff all right. What are the queues going to do here? The queues, the cues, the queues, the queues um - if it doesn't just roll over right here, which now that i'm seeing hang on some things, are selling the spy? The look at all three of these taken actually all four technically taking a hit at once: um the russell 2000, the spy and the nasdaq all simultaneously seeing some red. But let's see if people what's going on, it's just people, i guess someone's selling someone's selling. But let's see, let's see, let's see if people are going to start buying bbig short interest, it's going to be 26 percent uh.
Some people are saying 260. That is the data error. That's getting pushed out by e-trade, but it's about the estimation which is going to be pretty accurate, uh based on this recent model. It's going to be around 26, so i get that it's not like the 260 you're hearing about, but that's still super super high like it's.

A normal stock is like sometimes like you, don't even see them above one percent. So when you're talking about 26, like amc and jimmy, have considerable short interest and they're at like 20 and 14 respectively, um so bbig, it's not that ungodly number that people are saying, but it's still very, very high uh. I can't stress that enough, subaru guy here regarding atr, don't you find it kind of weird that the borrowed shares are over 60 million in an increasing and the shortage shares are only 8 million? Yes, i do, and i think this is a little bit of what uh wall street viking was referring to. Let me pull this one back up just so.

Everyone can see what we're talking about just so you know um. The outstanding shares is 44.45 million, and 65 percent would be the free float, uh free float that could differ from provider to provider um depending on how they calculate free flow. There's not like a widely accepted calculation. It's a little bit different here and there, but i do find this strange.

Let me just dive into a little bit here all right. Let's get rid of this this this so right here. The reason why they're coming down is kind of the same deal that we saw before i mean this is the 12.5 versus 7.5 kind of a notable um, a sizable overestimation this on the top. Here you have that purple line that's or texas estimation and we're getting that data from september 15th that got posted on friday.

They were overestimating it by 5 million, which is uh. It's sizable and that's why you see this drop off and i that would be my best suggestion on like why it's a bit wonky but um. I here's my my thought in two weeks when we get the next one i bet the model is now severely underestimating it and we're gon na see a spike up. I bet the truth is somewhere in the middle at first they were overestimating.

Now i find it unreasonable that they would only be short half the ones taking out like that does seem strange to me like one of my flags, my like my spidey senses are tingling. So if i had to bet which i am a betting man, i would bet that by the time the next one comes out we're now the model is underestimating it and when we get the new data set, it's going to recalibrate it back to the upside. If i had to throw out my own thought on that one hey mark, i haven't transferred out of robin hood and fear of missing this quiz with volume so low. Do you think it would be wise to transfer out this week? Um i mean there's always gon na be risk.
I can't tell you that, like oh you're perfectly fine, but i think you're at a very low risk right now mike i really really do um. My suggestion is - and i've been talking about this - and it's just so simple, especially if you're in the u.s - i don't know if you are or aren't but check out, public.com public.comcore is here i'll. Put this i'll. Pin this to the top of chat right here um.

It's free trading free stock trading; they don't have options they're going to roll out crypto soon uh, but free trading. You get free stock when you sign up, but to me i mean who doesn't like a free stock but um to me the best part about it. Truly is no payment for order flow. No market makers no dark pools.

All your orders are going directly to a lit exchange. Robin hood doesn't do that. Weeble doesn't do that. There are so many places that just don't do that.

Yes, you can avoid all of what i just said, which i think is worthwhile to avoid. If you end up doing something like fidelity, but you can't just willy-nilly trade on fidelity, you have to use active trader pro and pick the route that you want. Your order to be sent on if you're not doing that, there's a high probability. It's still going to basically otc it's going to still be going to citadel virtue while public.

It's you just don't even have to worry about that uh! You don't have to like go and be like. Oh pick my route order or anything like that public is only going to these exchanges and um to me, it's smart uh to kind of be like fighting against some of that stuff um. I think it's very, very smart, the one thing so uh. The question i get a lot about public is like well hang on.

If they're not doing payment for order flow, how do they make money? They do have it's twofold. They have a tipping system and then they also do share lending. But if you don't want your shares to be lent out, you can just uh there's like a contact like basically this like automated, like robot chat thing, and you could turn off the lending for your account. Just so you know, i believe they are allowed to borrow shares to deliver ftds, but this only kicks the can.

That's what i'm trying to say. Well, i mean so, i think um yeah well wall street viking - that's like exactly like. If you take a short position - and you never borrowed shares - that's how it is in ftd, so of course, like you properly borrowing, the shares will fix it, because now it's a legal, legitimate, short position at some point. They will need to buy those shares, even though they are not technically short on the stock, since they are borrowed and delivered.
No, no, they don't need to buy it. They need to locate it for the person. Who's short that should have never been short because they didn't locate the shares, so they need to track those shares down and once they do and they properly loan them to like, allow the person who's short to actually have like a legal, legitimate loan. That's like the issue that, like they should be fixing.

So just remember it's the scenario of let's say a hedge fund comes to a prime broker and they're like i want to short this stock. The prime broker is like cool go for it and the prime broker they're. Like oh shoot, we don't have those shares, so if they finally locate them like, let's say one of their clients, buys it and they're like okay. We could just borrow it from this account.

It's properly it's just a like a balancing act. They're like okay, cool, like we now have these shares. I think we're good to go. They're pro properly accounted for, and it goes from being a naked short to a legal, legitimate short because they track the shares down.

It's all good, no, no and like these are great questions. These are amazingly good questions that i think people for us to better understand like what is and isn't going on these.

19 thoughts on “Ep 86 fortune favors the bold dumb money: amc, gamestop crypto”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars MATTY VISION says:

    anyone know whats going on with CAPC.??

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars John Sebtar says:

    <Awesome post I must say. Crypto is moving with little sign of stopping throughout the past few days and weeks, with movements reaching a clear impasse, the aggregated cryptocurrency market has been following in Btcoin's lead and is struggling to garner any decisive momentum. One analyst is now noting that BTC has been holding above a key macro level throughout the past few months. I appreciate the honesty / the most you tubers this days is only up to the Moon / funny part is that nobody is talking or taking in consideration of what's happening around us !!!!! / stock market, delta variant, inflation and so on; let alone of how bitcoin perform before in the same situation in the past. What's best to do now is to trade with pro trader Mike Bloomfx as to stack up more even in this period.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dominick Wilson says:

    Today sucked

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Robot Bots says:

    ATER ORTEX PLEASE!!

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Robot Bots says:

    ATER ORTEX PLEASE!!

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Sayed Hakimi says:

    Some people are just not market/math smart, Find it boring or don’t have the time to commit and learn. And at the end of the day, Investing comes with risk and a lot of people don’t want to deal with it.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Yvonne Fletcher says:

    Mmat is moving

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Moses OG says:

    πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dan Love says:

    Y’all a$$ brainwashed. Wish I would send this guy or any other youtubers some damn moneyπŸ˜‚πŸ€£

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Lisa Johnson says:

    <If there is one thing I have learned in recent months it is to remain calm, especially when it comes to investments in cryptocurrencies. Learn not to sell in a panic when everything goes down and not to buy in euphoria when everything goes up. I advise y'all to forget predictions and start making a good profit now because future valuations are all speculations and guesses. The market is very unstable and you can not tell if it's going bearish or bullish.While myself and others are trad! N without fear of making a loss others are being patient for the price to skyrocket. It all depends on the pattern you follow. I was able to make 6.5BTC from 2.4 BTC in just August from implementing trades with tips and info from Troy Owen.

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ckmaui says:

    as a parent instagram for kids is insane

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Maxwel Joe says:

    I want to wake up one morning and find out that my portfolio is $4,000,000 . I know it’s possible

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Carlton says:

    MMAT guys!

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars EJ says:

    You don’t even cover amc anymore ?! Whats up with that ? You are the hegies puppet

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Virginia 282 says:

    Hello

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars max hillson says:

    7I'm so happy ☺️ my life is totally changed. I've been earning $10,250 returns from my $4,000 Investment every 13 days!!

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars San Diago says:

    I'm buying more ATER, Have a good feeling about it

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Movxmentz GB says:

    I’ll buy in the 20s again

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Eli Rodriguez says:

    FirstπŸ˜†

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