Extreme Market Volatility: How I'm Staying Green
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
So moon gang, i want to get this out of the way right out of the gate. The worst part about prison was the dementors, and i strongly believe that, with the crazy market volatility, there might be some hedgies that are going to be declaring bankruptcy pretty soon. Melvin capital, if you have no idea what i'm talking about it's just the fact that people familiar with the matter are already talking about how they're at a double digit loss. Already this year, uh and some of the rumors are putting that number around 25.
Don't forget that our boy, ken griffin at citadel and then also steve cohen, at 0.72, gave them a hefty hefty investment when they blew up about a year ago. This time remember this week is the week of, i guess, the birthday of the apes, so some crazy stuff. It is kind of fitting that we're being i don't know in an environment with extreme volatility, extreme insanity and remember whenever there's volatility. Yes, you can get chopped off chopped up, you can get whipsawed, but if you're playing it right, you could also make a considerable amount of money.
Now, if you haven't been catching a stream lately or anything like that, we have officially completed the first trading challenge of this year. Uh. The challenge was basically start with the 10k account see if you can get it over the pdt rule at 25, 000 and just to give everyone a little lucky see at that. Just for a little bit of a little bit of proof right here.
Uh it took about a month, but right here, we're now up to 27 600.. So first challenge is complete right now we're kind of thinking. Okay. What should the next challenge be? Uh? I am a little bit biased myself towards maybe seeing because before this it was a lot of training centered around pattern.
Day trading - i was thinking about like okay. Maybe it would be fun, especially with the current market environment, to be a little bit more active to see if we could get this up to 50 and that could be challenge number two and then i'm thinking. Maybe after that we could do a small account challenge. See if we could go from like one to ten thousand, those are just some ideas uh.
I just wan na give everyone an update on that. But, more importantly, we should be talking about an update on the overall market. Now, if you slept in yesterday, maybe you had a mini coma or something yesterday pretty calm day, not much happened. The spy was up 0.4 percent.
The queues were up 0.4. Um yields really didn't change. Much oil didn't really change much if you're, just looking at the numbers on the day, not much going on, but if i'm not being facetious and you look into it, you'll actually realize it was one of the most wild days really in the past couple decades, we Saw massive sell-offs in the morning, i'm talking huge percentage, people were panicking and then around midday buyer stepped in and everything ended up, pushing green. It was one of the largest just v-shaped bounces wild wild wild.
Like i said at the start of last week, tuesday morning, when right before the market opened, i said last week this week expect extreme volatility and that's exactly what we're getting now did i at all figure. It would be this insane. No! No! No! No! No! I thought it would be a little bit calmer than this and, if i'm being honest, uh yeah that took me by surprise, but i don't think we're slowing down anytime soon. Remember today is the start of the fomc meeting, the federal open market committee meeting, where the fed's meeting to discuss what they're going to do with the rates, but also, hopefully, we're getting an idea of how aggressive they're going to be with the tapering. What's going on? Are they increasing the rate hikes? How many is going on there, and also we want more information on the balance sheet, normal normalization, aka, the balance sheet runoff? So that's all the stuff we're looking for the meeting starts today. It concludes tomorrow. We'll get information at 2pm and then powell, the chairman of the fed, will be speaking at 2 30 and on top of that, we're in the middle of an earnings season. There's a lot of things going on, especially when you also have to consider the seasonal push right now.
The end of january uh check this out on equity. Clock is seasonally bearish, so you have to consider the seasonal influences you have to consider. What's going on with the fed, you have to consider just, i guess, the emotions in the market right now, because high volatility, it gets people to make emotional decisions rather than just like sound statistical, logical decisions and obviously that clearly can have an impact on the market. So today we're going to be taking a look kind of at the overall market.
What's going on the things to be paying attention to and then we're going to drive dive into some of the short interest numbers for the overall market, the spy, the queues, the russell, we'll look at amc, gme and then we'll do some chart breakdowns, and i also Have some political and individual business stories that i want to share with all of you? So with all that being said, let's spend the next 25 minutes prepping for the market open today, just to be specifically clear that options account that i showed you. I am completely flat. I am not going into this market opening with any position on whatsoever in that account challenge um, i'm waiting those first 10, 20 30 minutes to see how things open up to see. If i can spot an opportunity - and if i do i'll announce that live you'll be sitting here with me to see what i'm seeing, maybe you agree with me? Maybe you disagree with me, but remember i'm not a financial advisor, i'm not a lawyer, i'm not clairvoyant.
I'm not even an expert trader. Sometimes i have good trades. Sometimes i have bad trades just because i'm doing something doesn't mean it's a good idea for you to do remember. We all have different account sizes. We all have a different amount of time that we could pay attention to the market. We all have a different personality. Aka risk tolerance, we're all in a different financial situation. You have to do what's best for your life and your family's situation, so with all that out of the way, let's hop right into it all right, quick, look at the market, as you can see spy yesterday, gapped down, sold off huge amount and then had a Beautiful pop back, the exact same thing happened in the nasdaq gap, down sold off pop same thing in the russell gap, down even more sold off a bit less huge rally in the close, and then i just had tesla, because that was a put and then a Call play that i had yesterday, but before we get into the specifics of this type of thing, let's take a quick look at it.
Oh this just came out. Actually, let's dive into this imf cuts 2022 global growth forecast as u.s china recovery wanes. The international monetary fund has downgraded its 2022 global growth forecast to 4.4 percent, not the most bullish on the overall global economy. In the world economic outlook report published yesterday, the imf said it.
Oh excuse me today the imf said: expects global gross product to grow 0.5 percent point less than previously estimated, so we were coming in at 4.9 before this. The revised outlook is largely due to growth. Markdowns in the world's two largest economies, the us and china, so a little bit of bearish news being reported this morning and even with yesterday's rally just so you know the dow futures, the spy features and the nasdaq features all down right now. Oil is up hanging.
Just below 84 and yields hanging out at that key level of 1.75, so yields currently green a little bit so just to give you an idea of what's happening right here yesterday. This was a sea of red. You can kind of see. This is a quick snapshot of the s p 500 uh yesterday.
This was all red and near the end of the day, we started to see some green and now it's the definition of a mixed bag scenario, same thing with crypto. Yesterday it was all red and then around midday we started to see some green and now we have more green. So i would love for this to bounce, because crypto's been hit pretty hard just so you know we still have that. Crypto show it's on crypto cores.
Just search it really quick um that show is at 2 p.m, and also yesterday we dropped a specialty nft video of my thoughts of where nfds are going to be going in the year 2022. So if you have any interest in nfts, particularly because amc is now rocking with nfts gamestop building out an nft marketplace, i think it's incredibly important for the fact of knowing what's going on with amc, gme, the crypto market and potentially financial opportunities pay attention to crypto. This year, uh specifically nft's intersection with play to earn gaming. Now, let's talk about them, stonk markets, five things to know before the stock market opens today tuesday january 25th, the first day of the fomc meeting. Once again, it ends tomorrow, wall street looks lower with nasdaq pacing for 2 decline. Like i said, this was after an insanely wild day. Yesterday, everything just it it's been selling off. We had a huge gap down it sold off even more like check this out.
At one point, we were down four percent in the s p 500 and then we actually concluded the day up 0.4 same insane story with the nasdaq we were down. Almost five percent ended the day up 0.46 and then, with the russell we gapped down, sold off to three percent and by the day, the time the day was out. We were up 2.3. That is wild, that's in no way normal.
This stuff only happens once in a blue moon talk about a recovery now with this recovery. It was somewhat reasonable because i think a good metaphor for this situation is when you get overextended as in look how bearish things were think of it as a rubber band. There is a statistical edge, a statistical reasoning, to say that yeah there needs to be some sort of mean reversion, some sort of reversion to an average value. Think of it as a rubber band.
You pull it too much yeah. It wants to come back in this sell-off known not only on the individual day, but really ever since the start of the year, particularly january 5th, it's been so extreme that yeah the bears are just going to be running out of steam eventually, and that's exactly what We saw play out in midday yesterday. Does that mean we're going to bounce today? If, i'm being completely honest, i have no idea. All i'm very confident is is the fact that we're going to have extreme volatility, because we are in the middle of earnings season, which i'll be shouting out some of the companies you should be paying attention to, but then beyond that, we also just know with the Fed we're going to get a lot of clarity of the notes that dropped on january 5th of what is going on with their balance sheet.
So wild wild day yesterday and i don't think uh today, it might be a little bit less volatile, like typically that extreme volatility doesn't come back-to-back. But who knows you have to be prepared for everything be on your toes fed likely to signal a march interest rate hike at the end of the meeting um interest rate hike that further policy tightening is coming. So we're talking about quantitative tightening before this, when they were doing all those asset purchases that is quantitative, easing and now we're looking for them to kind of switch back over from qe to qt quantitative tightening the fed meets this week and is expected to signal that It's ready to raise interest rates as soon as march and that it will be considered other policy tightening. So what you need to know about the rate hikes previously in december, the december meeting mid-december. The answer at that point that we got was okay by the end of 2022. This calendar year we're looking for three rate hikes at point three percent, each. So we're looking to end the year at point. Nine people are wondering: are they going to increase it? Are we gon na see four or five? Is the new idea? One point five percent, so that's something to look for if they do raise it, that's more hawkish than expected and that might prompt additional downside in terms of the other things that they could do.
Speed up tapering it's supposed to end in march, they could choose to end it in february and then more of like kind of um. I don't want to say d-day option but akin to that pay attention to how aggressive or even really when they want to do. The balance sheet run off if they're, like hey we're going to do it at a reasonable pace at the end of 2022 at the start of 2023, okay, whatever, if they're like you know what inflation is actually not transitory, it's worse than we've been telling it, and We want to do it asap once again, extremely hawkish might be looking to the downside in the overall market. The fed issues, its policy statement, wednesday afternoon 2 pm and then pal, speaks at 2 30 at the end of the it's two-day meeting and is expected to show that it's willing to take steps necessary to fight inflation.
I don't think they're going to be spooked by this said one strategist of the stock market's correction. They need to be tightened fight in financial conditions, so they can have a better handle on inflation. Remember we're at a four decade, high of inflation. Three decade over in the uk yeah they have to get a handle on it.
Obviously, moving onward pfizer and bioin tech launch trial, okovid vaccine targeting unicorns jj expects at least three billion in covent vaccine sales this year, so they had their earnings report this morning, um. It was a mixed quarterly report. J jnj expects its covid vaccine to generate 3 billion to 3.5 billion in 2022. The company beat on fourth quarter earnings but missed on revenue.
Its revenue of 24.8 billion rose 10.4 percent over the same time in 2020, mostly driven by the 1.82 billion in international sales of its vaccine. On top of it, we did have some other important earnings today. Gge expects better profits in 2022 after supply chain woes hurt. Fourth quarter rev, so once again we're seeing this issue of over time and time again many people bringing up supply chain issues uh beyond that.
We had also ibm report when the market closed yesterday, so it was actually pretty good, but then they refused to give guidance for the upcoming quarter the upcoming year, people, not the biggest fan of that verizon, also reported there. The last time i checked negative after the market closes today we have microsoft and capital one. If you want to watch the bank tomorrow morning before the market opens, we have boeing and a t remember wednesday is the big day because of the fomc meeting. So we get those results in the afternoon and then right after that tesla and intel report and then before the market opens, we have mastercard and we have mcdonald's. I have a fun update for you on mcdonald's, uh jetblue. After that, we have apple robin hood visa, and then we have a lot of energy plays on friday. Just trying to keep everyone apprised to the things that are going on, ibm jumps after company beast on quarterly earnings revenue like i said it did do well, but um. You have to also just look into the guidance thing, but yes, it is currently green.
So out of all the insanity, we have seasonal bearishness. We have high volatility, we have the fed meeting and all that stuff. Well now, over the past couple days, this has been getting more news, um the geopolitical issue going on between russia and ukraine, which is now obviously involving nato. Well, anyway, we have an additional update, that's not necessarily the best for the market, at least in the short term.
Us orders 8 500 troops on heightened alert. Amid russia worry, so we do see some obvious developments there, something to pay attention to. I don't want to be here as a political commentator, i'm just saying yes, obviously some political things will clearly have an impact on the market, so it will behoove you to pay attention to what's actually going on there. I am personally hoping that things just calm down asap another political development.
This isn't that important. I just found it really funny because biden called someone a bad word and it just made me laugh. So i don't know this might get me demonetized, but i think it's fun to listen too. That's a great asset, more inflation, what a stupid son of a what a stupid son of a! So basically, the reporter asks if the nation's soaring inflation is a political liability.
That part was a little bit muffled. It didn't come through clear, but he had a hot mic on and i don't think he knew he had it on and he called him what a stupid son of a apparently right after this he did call and um apologize to the reporter. I just thought it was wildly funny um, so a completely different subject. Speaking of people doing things, they shouldn't have done, there's a good chance on twitter on tick tock.
You saw a video of a merrill lynch employee, the advisor james ian nazzo. I don't know how to ian nonzo inazo inazo anyway uh he was arrested and if you don't know what happened, there's basically a video of him coming in and accosting these people at a smoothie like i guess shop and he yelled at them and said borderline actually Straight up racist things and then also like chucked a drink at one of them and remember these are high schoolers but yeah. Apparently he was like straight up arrested merrill lynch fired a financial advisor in connecticut after he was arrested for hurling a drink at a smoothie store worker in an expletive-laden rant captured on tick-tock. James was widely seen on twitter in a video yelling at a worker. At the robex store in fairfield, i guess a smoothie place. He had worked at merrill lynch since 1995 was enraged. The day after his nut allergic son went into life-threatening anaflectic shock after having a drink from the store which led to the 17 year old boy's hospitalization um, like i said this, wasn't him necessarily coming in saying hey like how did my son consume nuts um? It was more than that he was being um. Like i said racist.
He was saying super super, inappropriate things uh and then beyond that, he like hurled the drink, which is to my understanding straight up assault. But yes, he has been fired and he was actually also arrested. Uh. Let's talk about some other individual companies.
Now metta aka facebook has built an ai super computer, it says, will be the world's fastest by the end of 2022. Just when you think that hey maybe facebook shouldn't have this much power and shouldn't dictate this much of our lives, they are now allegedly gon na. Have the most souped-up super computer in the entire world by the end of this calendar year. So something to pay attention to, but as every day goes on, it goes from a joke to like, maybe being serious, is facebook aka meta going for world domination.
Question mark very serious question all right. Moving on, let's talk about tesla tesla now runs the most productive. Auto factory in america and they are pulling it off in california. I think there's a really cool graphic right here.
You can see that tesla outpacing everyone. So, let's start with whoever this is uh show plans for ford, so the ford plants right here in the gray but obviously tesla's in the red kind of outpacing it uh gm. We don't have the most up-to-date numbers, but yes, tesla's still number one. Honda on the downtrend, and then you could just see some of these other ones, but yeah the closest competitor is actually toyota, which is kind of wild, just thinking about how many of them each are selling.
But i believe at this point, uh tesla is on the pace of 8550 cars a week, and it is just spinning that up between, what's going on in berlin and what's going on in texas um, hopefully their capacity goes even more and more and more. But whenever you talk about tesla, it's very hard to not talk about it's. I guess brain parent beings tesla's the brain child early this morning - elon musk, particularly maybe i don't know - deserves to be the best social media user on the planet. So early this morning he tweeted, i will eat a happy meal on tv.
If mcdonald's accepts dogecoin and as you can see, almost 150 000 likes quote tweets retweets many many comments, uh mcdonald's, seeing this at first laughing and then seriously, considering it and remember mcdonald's, repeat: uh - has their earnings announcement on thursday. What, if they're like you, know what we struck a deal with elam we're going to accept doge and he's going on tv eating a happy meal on this news. Uh doge actually did get like you could see the time it went basically from 13.5 cents, quick pop up to 15.. So not the same, i guess enthusiastic response that we've previously seen from elon talking about doge but still kind of flexing his muscles, showing that he does have an influence on many aspects of the market. This stuff, it always cracks me up when he gets on twitter. I just know i'm gon na end up laughing wild wild stuff all right. Now, let's get into a little bit more of the nitty gritty on the day. S p 500 short interest: 14.8 percent, the nasdaq 100.
We are up 30 uh short interest like and it's been rising, rising rising, the russell 2000 44.6 and just because we're here, let's just give you a quick check on amc and gme uh, amc, 20.13 and gme 20.28 remember these are all estimated, but in terms of Just looking at these estimated ones, this is the first time in about three quarters of a year that gamestop short interest has exceeded. Amc's now remember they're, very close, they're neck and neck, which is kind of tough to play just because these are all predictive models. So we'll have more information, basically in oh, it should actually be coming out. Sometime this week i was gon na quickly try to do the math of two day, two weeks ever since january 11th, so we're gon na get information, but remember this is a lagging indicator.
Um the exchange reported short interest. It comes out every two weeks, but it's for like at best you're gon na, be, i believe, like eight days behind no matter. Eight training days um and that's in like an optimal scenario. So always always gon na be slightly delayed.
Just to keep everyone a little bit informed about what's going on there, but overall, what we're seeing in the three major markets we're paying attention to, and also many equities, including amc and jimmy the short interest is going higher and higher and higher that's been the trend. Pretty much since the start of december slowly but surely going uh higher, actually kind of wild all right. So now, let's look over some of these important levels. As you can see.
Yesterday we came down to this incredibly important support. We broke through this first one at 428 and then we found this july low right here, uh mid july. We found support perfectly off of this low and we started to bounce and boy. It was wild and we actually almost came up to test the 200-day moving average, which i have in the teal line right here.
The 200 is very important. The question is: is this just a bear trap, or is this a legitimate breakdown? I honestly thought today we would be a little bit closer to yesterday's clothes. I thought the markets would want to test this line because it's also roughly the same as 442 and some change another important level. So i was like, i think, the market's gon na check it, but, as you can see, we're actually gapping down in the pre-market right now to the tune of 1.5 percent. So in the overnight session there is some bearishness. The first thing i will be watching is this 431.50 level. That's the main level i'm watching in support and in terms of resistance, i'm watching 436.. Now, let's talk about the nasdaq same thing: beautiful recovery came right back up to this key level of 352 and some change, but once again we're gapping down.
It is currently down two percent um. I it's kind of this has been weird just because nasdaq, these, like higher growth options, have been hit the hardest. My initial watch man - this is just so wide i'm trying to give you a more specific level, maybe 343 we're currently trading at 346, and some change i'll be watching 343 as support, and i would really want to see if it can actually can get back above 350, but before i get too far into this, i do want you to notice how the spy, the qs and the russell all of them in the deep sell-off territory um. This is extremely bearish, but it's also to the point of when it gets overextended, whether deeply bearish or extremely bullish, whether right now we're in deeply bearish territory.
It's common to look for reversion plays as in a legitimate bounce, because the bears do not have an infinite amount of money, the same thing with the bulls, so it's common to see kind of like the ebb and flow like it might push one way, and then You get a little bit of a reversion bounce and then that's the question of okay. Will the overall trend stay intact for whatever time frame you're currently on in terms of the russell i'm watching and a half and then below that we have big support at 191 and then i would like to see if it can actually recapture 200 and following that 205., so that's the spies, the qs and the russell. Those are the levels i'm paying attention to now. Let's pull up amc amc.
I was calling out yesterday: hey, we have support at 14.50. It ended up bouncing off of roughly what was this. 1423 1450 is just the important level from right here: resistance, resistance, um, so i'll be looking for that fingers crossed once again deeply sold off. Let's see if that support can hold, hopefully we're not even testing it we'd love for it to recapture the mid-16s right.
Now. It's trading at 1590 and then from there. I would want to see that test of 18. This support support breakdown.
I want to see how that acts as resistance now but similar to the spies accused in the russell. Yes, um, the it's extremely in this territory. So there is a statistical, i guess, backing a statistical edge of looking at okay, let's see if the buyers actually step in and we might be setting up we're gon na need more trading days, but there might even be some bullish divergence but once again, you're gon Na need a couple more dating trading days, uh days worth of data to see if that will or won't hold. Now, let's talk about gamestop same thing: oversold territory would love for it to recapture 100 um, that's a key psychological level and then from there we have a key technical level at 106.. Yesterday it ended up hitting around 85, which is roughly where we had some support. Actually, it came back to support um where it closed out and i'm looking at the time frame from late feb, but where it bounced yesterday, look at this support support. So, even in these, i guess equities that mainstream media would refer to as mean stocks, not all the time, but sometimes you can see very, very obvious and nice technical setups. Obviously, today i just want to reiterate: i'm expecting high volatility, so, as things are, moving feel free to shout them out to me and we'll put up on the chart whatever's like moving the most uh, because those are the things that there's financial opportunity.
But it's also just straight up fun to watch. Let's look at some of these other ones. Uh we have tesla yesterday came down to this support, absolutely wild hit 856 and then recovered all the way up to 930, almost gap filled to this low at 9 40. But right now like the overall market, it seems to be down over one percent this morning.
So name of the game for me this morning, is to sit on my hands at market open and just see what kind of trend we're actually establishing. If you had to ask me right now, i am leaning a little bit more bearish just because i've been bearish ever since the start of last week as we're heading into the meeting and then as we get really into that meeting, no matter what's going on in The market i'm telling you i will be flat going into that 2 p.m. Meeting tomorrow, wednesday january 26th, i will be flat uh, it's a binary event. It's the flip of a coin.
I'm not gon na. Take that chance, i'll wait till after the meeting and i'll see the trend that's established from there. Let's talk about some of these other ones, even in all that insanity yesterday, all right ding, any ding, ding ding wow. That was very loud uh.
I just wanted to point out that microsoft held up pretty well as we're heading into their earnings, but yes, ding, ding ding. The casino is open. Let's see how things are going to go today, all right. Let's let the market breathe for a second i'll, throw up amc and jimmy just so.
We can see their initial opening but um at some point. We're gon na have to pivot back to the queues and the russell just to see what the market's actually doing. Sorry about that that the dinghy ding ding ding, if it makes you feel any better, it also like blew out my ears all right, while we're waiting for the market to open um, hopefully everyone's feeling a little bit more comfortable with the things we should or shouldn't Be watching today and the influences on the overall market. This is a great time for questions. Let your questions fire i'll go over to chat. Considering everything is going green. It would seem the top one percent already know the information from the fed very well might uh. I thought that myself, when we were seeing some abnormal trades huge volume coming through at some pretty opportune time.
I'm like okay are other people just forcing it to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because they saw a whale. Do something and they're gon na ride it or are they placing those bets as in that size of a bet, because they already know what's going to happen? It's definitely a thought that crossed my mind without a doubt. What else do we have? What else do we have all right? What kind of questions oh wait i need to get over here. Uh.
Do you still like prague for the long term, yeah uh my outlook and my reasoning on prague has not changed whatsoever. Not at all. I think it's an undervalued company when i got into it. I publicly announced it's a long-term hold.
For me it was not an active trade. I don't want people to think that the only way to engage in the market is to buy something that you think is going to squeeze that day or the next day short squeezes are rare. They obviously happen, but it's not like as commonplace as maybe it's perceived to be over the past year, i'm in prague for the long term do i think it could squeeze. Does it have the capability yeah? It has a high short interest um, but i'll ride.
It up i'll lock in my money, i'll let it come back down and then i'll reinvest, but i think of it as more of a long term play whoa, whoa whoa what is happening. I guess the morning pop didn't last too too long jeez it tried to go up and then things got smacked, and now it's just like quickly. This is what i'm saying of why i don't like to trade right out of the gate. It's one thing for me to lock in a trade whether a profit or a loss, but i'm talking about creating a new position.
Um, it's this type of whip saw stuff that i've just lost too much money doing it um this isn't a commonly held rule. I know many people that love to trade right out of the gate. It's just not a way that i've been successful in the market. Thoughts on bb, one of the most undervalued tech plays.
In my opinion, cyber security and ev are growing industries and potential catalysts in the patent sale. Let's quickly bring up, blackberry, blackberry does seemingly do well. When there's like new cyber security issues, it is oversold you're, seeing some bullish divergence and there is a nice gap. Fill up to 850, but overall, it's just not the biggest mover right now like it doesn't have much volatility.
So that lessens your risk, but it also lessens your reward just because the stock's not moving that much for quite a while it was range bound broke down. Try to get back in that range and then with the overall market and the queues kind of taking a noteworthy correction. Uh blackberry got hit even more, i kind of like it, but i just don't think it's going to be like the craziest money-making play. It just doesn't have much volatility in the past, it has and it can definitely move, but i would want to see some of that volatility return for me to return man. Look at this. We open, we sell, we go, we sell down, we go back up, we sell down. This is just that crazy opening, uh sit and sit and sit, and some people are calling out bbig bbig at three dollars right now. It is up seven percent on the day trading at 3, 14.
um would love to see it get back over four. I know four is a very important level for bbig. So that's something i would be paying attention to uh. What else do we have? Recently? That's been moving dewac currently trading at 65..
I did have calls on it, but then, just with the market yesterday i sold them very, very early at open uh. So currently no dwac position in terms of the options account. I have no positions um in terms of the public account which, if you haven't already sign up for this public.com course it's in the description. It's free to sign up.
You get up to 70 of free stock when you do sign up no payment for order flow. No market makers, if you want to trade options, public is not for you. If you want to trade options, maybe you want to look at interactive brokers. Maybe you want to look at something like td.
Public does not offer options, it's more for equities. It's. It wants people to invest in equities, not necessarily for like active options. Traders when you sign up like i said free, they are not doing payment for order flow, the likes of robin hood and weeble, yes, they're still in payment for order flow.
It's blowing my mind. Uh a year into this, of the apes learning about like kind of how citadel and virtue of what they're doing to the market, it does blow my mind honestly that people are still on robin hood and weeble check out public. That's the one that i really like. My stocks on you can see and what's cool about it is the social media aspect.
You can see what i'm in uh. You can see that i own amc, gme prog crsr, i believe, are the main ones in that account right now. If there's ever any questions about what i have in my long term account, let them fire happy to answer it and then obviously, with the options account um. I call those out.
That's all on the locals macros locals and if you have any questions about what i'm in with crypto that's a great question. I just ask that you save it for the crypto streams, but then more than happy to let you know what i'm in uh when it comes to the world of crypto as well. Do you still use weeble? No, no! No! No! Not at all! I do find it disheartening that there are other loud, well-known voices within this community who are still on weeble. I i don't understand what's going on, but they they are. I don't use it anymore, i'm not going to support a company like that no way jose. This is a nice push. Nice nice push all right, dwack, uh, bbig bbig, still pushing. We have amc pushing to that 1650 level.
That's important! All right! Let me just see i want to see. What's going on, dude, do all right, watch and watch and watch it. Remember i i don't know, maybe i'm gon na miss something. Maybe this was the opportune time to buy the breakout and tesla rips for the remainder of the day.
Maybe the same thing could be said about the spy about the cues, i'm just saying in environments like this, i know there's a lot of volatility, there's a lot of whipsaw right out of the gate and i'd rather miss a trade than get involved in a bad Trade uh we're not even 10 minutes in. I would at minimum like to wait that just to see what's going on, i find it kind of weird that the spy sold but bounced so maybe some bulls are showing up, but i'm gon na wait. I'm gon na wait, i'm gon na wait. Um amc ran perfectly up to resistance 1650.
So, let's see if it can retest that, let's check in on gme ran up it's trying to hold over 100 big big fan of that uh bbig, still looking good on the day, cues and spy okay. The question is: is this just a healthy pullback, or was this like a fluke of a morning? Push time will tell time will tell let's look at the bigger picture of spying, cues uh not too much help there honestly, not too much up there. Uh 434, if it holds out above that, i like that on the spy and then the qs they're trying to get going they're, definitely trying to get going. I guess i'm watching 350 to see what goes on there watch and watch and watching look at ortex on tesla, happily, happily, happily happily or tex tesla.
Let's pull up these numbers for everyone, hi these okay, tesla estimated short interest, three percent um. So there are some shorts, it's beyond the average short but tesla's short interest. Like i said three percent, there are many other things that are have higher shorts than tesla right now, where do you get your earnings calendar um? I actually follow this account on twitter called earnings. Whisperer, and i i like it.
I mean it's been solid, thus far. That's what i use it's a twitter account um uh. They also they get called out on benzynga. If you're a ttg member uh, they even have it on their platform.
There are many places to get it. I either end up using if i'm on twitter i'll use earnings whispers and then, if i'm on ttg i'll, just use like their home page no options or after hours trading on public. Yes, there are no options which i think, especially for maybe newer traders, that's good to avoid, because options take some time to like truly wrap your head around and then um after hours. I it's been many many years since i've ever traded in pre or post market training, it's a lower volume environment and i think some of the moves are like just fictitious because it's not really backed by volume. All of my trading, excluding crypto trading and what i should really say is crypto investments is all done between basically 10 am and 4 pm. Amc short interest. 20 uh. You should start a hedge fund uh.
I don't think that's ever gon na be in my future. Ever gon na be in my future, all right, i am watching uh. Thus far, we've had a slightly bullish opening uh the pre-market was a little bearish, but it was trying to fight. But if the q's break i'm a little bit worried, i'm watching the cues at this level, the q's, the q's, the q's honestly, we don't really need these anymore, at least for the time being, i suppose i'm watching 344 in some change and then i'm watching 340.
Uh whipsaw city whipsaw, just teeter-totter up and down no clear direction, yet we might be putting in a higher low, which would be a little bit more bullish and it would give us a reasonable risk to play off of. But time will tell i like this amc shown a little bit of enthusiasm this morning: oh no, the spy, the spy, the spy, the spy. What are you doing? Man uh we're coming up to that first level about a dollar below 430 150 and then below that 428, 431, 50.. So a dollar below, oh, what is going on it's hard to get a read right now, hard to get that ready.
All right. I just took a little a little stab at this. I got some tesla puts. I will update this right now, just seeing how this is gon na play out perfect already down on it.
That's how i like to start. Let me post this uh tesla, put strike 928 premium paid all right, seeing a little bit of a bearish tune. Uh just so. Everyone knows just to keep me accountable.
Tesla trade tesla put strike 900 expiration jan 28th premium uh. 41. 12.. I didn't write it up.
So i'll just call it out right now in real time of what i'm looking for. Let me just quickly: do the math um i'm going for a percentage um. Let me just quickly figure out what percentage i'm going for. I got in at 41.12, i'm just going for i mean i want to peel the first one off at ten percent.
Forty five, twenty five uh create all right and what did i say? 10. 45. 23. That's for one! I have multiple.
I actually got three of these, so i'm getting out one of them at a 10 gain um i put in the order just so everyone knows, and i should be getting that at it should fill around 405 roughly. So if this goes down a little bit more, i should get the fill, and then i i want what it's nice about when you get over this is, i can better show some methodology related to scaling in and scaling out on this particular trade did i scale In no, i went all in at once um, but i also accounted for that by not going like the biggest size um, it's a little bit more size than i wanted just because volatility right now is jacked up. The implied volatility is right now, nuts um, but i do want to show you the i guess ability that were how advantageous scaling out can be when you are scaling in scaling out you're, never going to bottom tick, you're, never going to top tick, but over enough Data points you're going to be more profitable, um, just because it's if you're bottom ticking or top ticking you're, just absurdly lucky you're insanely, lucky um did one fill for me. No, it should have, though it got absurdly close to filling like sense away. I don't know why the one just didn't fill on this little drop right here um. So i have three and i today i want to focus on teaching some scaling methodology. So for me it calms me down the position. I did it's a little bigger than i wanted.
Um we're not the most in the market, we're only 17 minutes in right now, so i'd love to cut one of those off lock in 10. It lowers my overall risk from lowering my position, but i also then locked in some profit on the day and um, if, like i said it's 10, so the first one cost uh 41.. So that means i'll just calmly, i don't know lock in the 400 and then we'll see how the rest of it goes. What trading platform am i using for the account challenging challenge right there? I don't know if you heard that, but we just locked one in um right here uh here.
Let me show you this, so everyone uh, i think i made it big enough that people can read. So i got three plus one plus two 900 put tesla january 28th. It cost me 41.13. I just roughly did a 10 and i sold it at uh.
45. 23. I guess i thought it was 45 25. I must have typed it in wrong, but anyway i locked in one for 10.
So now i have two more and um so p l, i guess open right now so we'll see, and now it's to the game of kind of watching um and i'm gon na feel a little bit more calm. My risk is gon na be. If i wanted to be really conservative with it 9 16, but i'm probably more interested in 9 25-ish, so we scaled out a one. My position was too big.
I got a little excited, but just quickly lock that in so we'll see we'll give this a little bit of room to breathe. I'm watching the spy over here and if you pay attention to the cues that level that i was calling out. Well, that is not real. That's a a fictitious print um see where the queues are trying to bounce right off of this support.
3, 44 and some change. So i know we're at support so when you're at support you're either going to break or your bounce, it's going to be a 50 50.. I don't know it. Could bounce buyers could step in right now and this thing could like just rip and rip and rip.
I have no clue, so that's exactly why scaling can help now. This is more of a difficult thing to do if you are battling with pattern day trading, because you're like well hang on you're telling me to get in and get out and if it's all a day trade like i'm burning my day, trades all in one day, Um yeah, that's true, that's part of why pattern day. Training is like one of the dumbest things ever is it hampers you from taking on good trading methodology, especially if you're an active trader um, but i guess those are the types of trades where i think about swinging where i'm like. Okay, i know i want to be this in at least oh hang on sorry for at least one day shoot we're bouncing right now, um when i'm like. Yes, i know i want to be in this for at least like at least a day like i'm going to be swinging it overnight, but most likely i want to let the trade breathe and probably play out over a couple days. Those are the types of trades. I look for when i am thinking about okay, my accounts below 25k, i'm trying to not burn any day trades. I use those as like kind of a safeguard, just in case something goes haywire in day, one uh, and now i guess my screen is frozen unless tesla's just not being traded, is anyone else's screen frozen uh? Now it just? Is it lagging behind hello trading view? Let me just double check this charts tesla five minute, all right, we'll see how this is gon na go today, yeah.
This is behind, for whatever reason right now do i just need to like reload this page hang on. Let me do when in doubt give it a reload uh. Oh the reload caused the market to go red. Alright, word of warning to everyone.
Do not reload your trading view because it might cause everything to go red might cause everything to go red. Learn from my mistakes, they unplugged the market a little bit of a lag, but let's just hopefully they're, i don't know figuring it out figuring it out. The queues are at an incredibly important area and for tesla once again, the area is 327 that i'm watching and it broke down from 431. So we are watching 427 and we'll just call it and a half.
Oh, i already have it actually marked out. My apologies. Um, so the cues, let's see if it can recover, i mean always a shot of it, always always always look it. It's on the bottom end of its keltner.
It might just be a little bit of an overshoot aka, like kind of a bear, trap, type of a deal and we might be just bouncing - or this might be a legitimate breakdown. I'm watching, like i said four, basically 428 or yeah 428. So we have a dollar fifty more to go on the spy and we'll see we'll see we'll see we'll see amc going flat on the day, so at least it's not at thus far getting drugged down by some of this other stuff. No, no! No! No! No! What am i doing, what am i doing? 4, 2, 4.
9. 17 on tesla, how's, bbb bbig on the day went up not really holding the gains in the most confident manner. Okay, so on the newest setup, i actually got back my position on tesla back to like kind of that heavy weight size with that 917 kind of being my risk, especially on the newest ones. Uh. Let me just watch this for a second, not so why? I'm watching it right now is because right here i see a bounce, it popped. It came down and made a new low, and now it's showing kind of like this peak setup of like a lower high, i'm basically getting it on the breakdown right here. So uh. Let me draw because i think this could actually help a little bit more, so i got puts there and now i just re-entered puts right here.
Let me move this a little bit over and, of course, my luck is just bouncing right now. Let me draw this. Let me change the color here on this one, so i took some profits. I went long on three puts i closed one, and then i went back into actually more overweight on this put play even here now i'll put that information up in a second.
I just want to watch this because i don't want to really give anything back if i don't have to. I actually like this play my concern about it. Is i like this breakdown i like that i have established risk okay, good stuff. My only concern is that the q's, the nasdaq and the spy, if you look at the keltner, it's already overextended to the downside, um so tesla it doesn't have to, but it does commonly go with like the spy and the q's.
It doesn't deviate that much. It is deviating a little bit now showing some strength so the chance of like the spy and the q's going down right now. I just know the odds are not that high in the very very short term. We just know they're, not um, because we're already on the south side of the volatility bands, so i figured that this could happen so kind of like a medium.
I guess, like i, wouldn't give this like a five star setup i like, when there is a little bit more rhyme or reason to this, watching watching watching watching relative to the spy in the queues. Obviously, tesla is showing more strength, tesla's actually down one percent um. If i had to guess, people are really liking the fact that the california plant in fremont fairmount, whatever it is out there in california, for tesla uh, just the highest producing one over 8 500 vehicles a week, um topping the likes of gm, topping the likes of Ford topping the likes of toyota - that's some impressive stuff for sure for sure, for sure for sure, i'm watching very very closely all right, and now it's kind of coming down to this region that we talked about. Is this a fake out breakdown or the q's? Actually going to get rejected, 3, 3, 4, 50 on the nasdaq 100 it's important, and then we are talking about 428 on the spy time will tell patience, patience, patience and in reality, let's get back to here.
Why is this not okay, i'm watching this trend. Line of just this pattern of recent higher lows, obviously, for me i would like it to break down, but if you're going exact opposite of me, obviously you'd, like this trend line to hold uh bbig is swinging back around amc is flat. I wonder if gme is flat jimmy showing a little bit of strength right now, the q's really deciding the the buyers are like. Okay, is this legitimate or was this actually a breakdown? And then, if this can't recapture 344.50, which i don't know yet we have to watch i'm watching it. If this goes down, let's say if it breaks 343 342 good shot that the spy will also break 428. So then, this is why it's sometimes good to see how, like everything, is playing off of each other how's, the russell doing today, the russell actually showing some um relative weakness compared to other things, uh pretty much in line with the cues actually russell down 2.86, while The queues are down 2.77, so the queues in the russell a little bit of a similar story. I think the difference in the chart is just how zoomed in i was in a weird way: tesla's actually kind of acting. I i didn't expect this whatsoever tesla's, acting as like a bit of um like a leading indicator for the spy in the queues today like if you notice the the flow will come in to tesla.
It's reaction to the upside a bit more extreme, so we're seeing some buyers step in and then not long after that we see some buyers stepping into the queues and the spy um. This was not the tune. Yesterday i mean even this look at this little pop 918 up to 924 and it came first and then the queues are like. Okay, like we're going to test 344.50 interesting, interesting, interesting, let's see, let's see um, we could very quickly check on the big guys today.
What do we have 125 already quite a bit of an action: whoa whoa, whoa whoa, look at all these 10 days out 24 days out three days out, a tesla call three days out a test. A call three days out a tesla put three days call call three days call three days call so it looks like for this week. We have some whales coming in in a bullish manner, but then for 10 to 24 days out the qs and the russell. They are loading up bets against a lot.
Look at this wall of puts that's nuts, absolutely nuts, i mean the. I don't know, look how much money. This is millions and millions of dollars. This one alone was 1.5 million, not necessarily the spy.
There are some spy puts, but the russell and the q's are the the bearish bets right now in the market are significant. Aren't the queues in the spy index funds? Yes, they would be secondary function of the underlying stock. Tesla would be the move for the queues right, for example, um kind of so there's certain ones like that have even more notable influence such as apple, microsoft, tesla. Just because they're larger, i think all three of those are they're, definitely top ten.
They might even all be top five, so just the way um like waning would be considered. Yeah like i i what you're saying is like okay to move those would they be secondary? Yeah but then also remember you're looking at the basket, so it's gon na be the average of a bunch of these moves. Matt i'm confused, puts on tesla. You know the earnings are going to be amazing. I don't think i'll be swinging. This position the earnings, are tomorrow after the market closes. As i stated going into the fomc meeting tomorrow, i will be flat. This is either a day.
Trade or i'll swing it overnight, depending on how things play out um, but i am not swinging this into their earnings and there is the breakdown how long it will take you to get from 25 to 50k. What's your time frame on this, i have no idea. I don't even know if i'll be able to do it. I hope i could do it uh, but the fact that i don't even know if i can do it like you, never know what the markets um there's i i guess i try to always drive home that point of you just never ever know.
Would love the 1 to 10K challenge for those of us struggling on low incomes
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Matt sold all his AMC left us holding the bag MF
Hey Matt you rock bro if I ever get to see my green again on AMC I promise to buy you 2 expressos 🤲💎
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