Oh oh oh brother, oh brother, hello hello, hello happy October Welcome back to another episode of the Matt Cor show. Where you're the show and I'm Matt Kors And together we make this thing work. Hey, we're here for a new month. We're here for a new week.

We're here for a new day. I Hope you're having a good one. Hello, hello, hello, everyone. wake up.

Oh this is not Tilted the way it needs to be. Hang on, where's my camera? Let's let's move it a little bit like that. I think that's a bit better. a bit better, a bit better folks.

I Was trying to think about all the things that I have to do this particular day, week and month and I was there this morning crushing it on this stair stepper. I was sweating like no other just getting all those toxins and evil spirits and demons out of me to really kick the month off right? and then I thought to myself and I wanted your opinions on all of this. but I think as many of my friends are doing right now and maybe you are, maybe you aren't uh I think I might be diving into the world of sober October just to see what it's like, what the other people in this world have to deal with and experience. So um, yesterday I mean I I was thinking about it and I noticed that yesterday I was a okay just by happen S I did not consume anything that would make me, uh, arguably in a non sober state.

So now we're here. we're here. Day two and I'm I'm in no way thinking that this is going to be easy, but I'm thinking that it might just be a good challenge. Who knows.

Maybe it makes my trading amazing. Maybe it makes it absolutely horrible. So I just need you guys to expect, um, definitely daily updates of what pure sobriety is actually like and then obviously come November 1st we're going to have a blowout. Maybe we'll just just do like a full day stream of me just on an absolute Bender Um, he'll make it 4 days.

Well, we'll see, We'll see, we'll see. It's tough for me whenever I say I'm going to do a challenge like publicly to all of you I feel the most immense pressure in the world to not back down from it because I know I told thousands of people. So for example I don't know if you guys remember way back when I did the um hot chip challenge and I stood there for an hour. That was arguably one of the most uncomfortable periods of my life of how much it was hurting my stomach.

it was just ripping it apart. but yet the fact that you were here watching me I was like well I can't back down now Mom of course didn't raise no. So I feel like whenever I like say anything to any of you it very much feels like the pressure of like oh like is he going to do it is he not like it? In my mind it's very much like oh 100% I'm mean to do it like the one time when I told you guys I've never run a 10K in my life I've never run as far far 6 miles and I was like yeah I'm going to do it and then I just went out and did it one day even though like 3 miles into it I couldn't feel my feet, my hip was hurting. it's just like I don't know I'm kind of that mindset that if you tell a bunch of people you're going to do something not really the hemming and Hauling type of a thing but very much you're like I'm doing this you kind of just like have to do it.

Um, so we're going to see how it is so we're going to be doing that for daily updates and we'll see if it improves my training. We'll see if it doesn't improve my training I Have absolutely no clue. Um so just wanted to bring that up. happy October Happy October Fest Happy early Halloween Um this is one of my personal favorite favorite favorite favorite times of the year.

I Love all the horror movies the comedy movies related to Halloween I Watched Hocus Pocus last night. That movie does not stand the stand. the test of time it does not. Uh, I thought it did every year in the month of October I Make it a point to watch Hocus focus and it didn't hit me until this time that Wow! The writing and the acting in that movie was absolutely horrible.

Now I still like it because it holds a Sentimental place in my heart. But to that that movie definitely could have been better. Uh I think I'm going to watch Scream tonight which actually I have watched that one many, many times and I'm pretty sure Scream stands the test of time. I guess on that note, what your favorite Halloween movie.

Uh I'm going to put it down on a list cuz I need a bunch of Halloween related fall related like seasonally related movies to watch for this particular month? So I've already done Hocus Pocus I'm already planning on watching Scream and basically what I need 29 more suggestions to get through it Matt I did Sober 1996. Don't do it. It's not worth it as in you spent the entire year of 1996 sober actually I think I did that with you granted I was born in 94, but Jason I think you and I could bond over the fact that we both did sober 1996 together Conjuring Trick-or treat Lost Boys the Roseanne Halloween episodes Insidious Tesla Yeah Tesla just missed on its delivery numbers Uh I Graduated high school in '94 94 was a good year for the both of us. I Graduated to being a human and you graduated high school Beetle Juice Christmas Story Parasite I Don't know if I would really call parasite a Halloween movie, but it is a good movie.

it follows. All right. Interesting. interesting.

I'm going to write some of these down, but uh I very much appreciate it folks. If you haven't already, first of all, show a bit of love to today's stream sponsor. Pinned to the top of Chat in the description of the video is Streetbeat. Streetbeat is free to sign up for all I'll give you the whole Spiel later Uh, you can use the code Matt and you'll get a free month A full month for free with the code m a Free to download So go to your iPhone Go to your Android Go to the Apple App Store Go to the Google Play Store Download Streetbeat.

All one word. and when you're signing up the very first page, put in mat A and you'll get one full month for free. It's a Robo advisor, so yes, you can buy and sell stock that way you normally would. but what's really cool about it is the fact that you get these basically AI trading co-pilots My favorite is mimicking what Congress does whatever they're buying I'm buying whatever they're selling I'm selling so you could do that as well.

but there are also other trading co-pilots that it does the automated buying and selling for you. I think it's really cool. Check it out. once again, pin to the top of chat in the description of the video.

We'll talk about it later. But really, what I want to get into is some of the breakdown of what I called out in the newsletter and right now starting off the month of October it's uh, rough Waters out there. safe to say rough water. So if you were being we'll say a reasonable human being and taking time away from all the screens and technology.

and I guess really all the digital robots that run our life. Uh, you might have missed the fact that we averted a shutdown going into the weekend. There's a lot of people saying hey, the US government's going to shut down and there was Moody a rating agency who was just waiting they were. They were looking at their phone screens the entire time.

They're like just do it, Just do it, Just do it like they were ready to hit the button and downgrade the Us creditworthiness and we didn't shut down. So there they were angry the entire time. They're like we're going to do it Man, we're going to do it And it never came because there was a last second last minute deal that was made and obviously we didn't shut down. But now this is prompting more drama and the drama is particularly within the GOP with the Republicans and it's all about are they going to oust the Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy Matt gate says he's going to do it this week.

so I want to talk about that I want to get your thoughts on it. Then I have some updates of some crazy statements made from Sam Bakman freed the disgraced alleged thief and douchebag from FTX and then some interesting updates from Bill Lman and Elon Musk and what's going on with X as it coming back to the public markets? a little bit of seasonality and just some generic updates that I think you're going to be really interested in. But before we get into that quick question from you guys, uh, how many of you by a show of hands, please raise your hands, Don't feel the need to type anything, just either put your hand up or don't. Obviously I already have cameras installed in all of your houses.

How many of you saw the interview I did with life Abraham The CEO of public um I'm just curious on if you guys saw that it was posted on Saturday it's the video it's up on Rumble it's up on YouTube it's called dumb money um I was just curious. Your thoughts on the interview if you liked it, if you like that length, if you want them shorter, longer and I'm really I'm asking you because I'm doing another interview today that will get posted this upcoming weekend. but I just wanted to get your thoughts on. Like did you like the vibe, the tonality, the questions, the length? uh, just where's everyone at Tesla missed delivery numbers? Yeah! Tesla right now, down 3.8% in pre-market trading.

Uh, um, why is it did you install the camera in my bathroom? Uh, Pickle Me Timbers, It was just the easiest place I could access in your house AMC isn't a dead cat? Well, it's kind of looking like a dead cat I Know it's up a little bit right now because similar to their partnership with Taylor Swift and doing the distribution of her like digital concert movie video, whatever you want to call it uh, they're now doing that with Beyonce's Renaissance So also doing kind of like a concert tour movie uh with Beyonce who's obviously also a very popular female artist. So I mean it's definitely a revenue driver, but the question is, is it enough of a revenue driver for it to help at all with their serious dep burden? Uh, it was a good interview. good interview, all right. Well, if you have any really, really mean, like really, really, really mean forms of constructive criticism I guess if you want to Sam publicly here, feel free to just DM him.

Um, enjoy the interview and the length of it. Keep it up Sam I Just I Just enjoy you and your Good Vibes uh Beyonce can pay their interest Beyonce could probably pay their interest I think for three years and then she would even go bust. Uh, so she could pay it for a little bit but not for long. It would even make the very famous and Wealthy Beyonce and I'm including her net value with her like obviously married to.

Jay-Z they would pay it for about 3 years until they would also have no money. Um is Adam Aaron using AMC to meet hot superstars it's getting Beyond hilarious now I Have no idea with that guy like I'm starting what's the word senility? I'm question his questioning his senility as much as I do Joe Biden at this point um I Don't think he's necessarily lost his mind as much as Joe Biden has, but it feels like he's on that trajectory. Is that the word cility? I Think it is cility. Stop sending me feet picks.

Never, never never never, All right stock. future slip to start the month even after lawmakers avert government shutdown Tesla Reported 435,000 deliveries for the third quarter and production of 430,000 Tesla Just reported third quarter vehicle production and deliveries for 2023 during the company's second quarter earnings call Executives Warned that production would decline uh, sequentially due to some planned Factory shutdowns Wall Street Was expecting Tesla deliveries to reach 4616 th000 for the period ending on September 30th. All right Delivery: 435,000 total production 430,000 during the previous quarter Tesla Reported total deliveries of 466 production 479 Uh, sequential decline in volumes with was caused by plan down times for factories upgrades as discussed in the most recent earnings call. our 2023 volume Target of 1.8 million Vehicles remains unchanged, down 3.7% Interesante.

Anyway, that's a bit of breaking news, but obviously quickly. let's just talk about the overall market and what's going on. I Guess maybe a better thing for me? Oops, A better thing for me to do would be to actually explain the overall all right. here we go.

It's going to be one of these days. Equity Clock.com Uh I Don't know why this isn't loading. It's probably because I have a million tabs open right now, but I do want to let you know about the seasonality of October So the start of October is actually one of the weakest periods from a seasonal perspective in the entire trading year. Obviously, late June's a pretty brutal one.

Also, late February is a pretty brutal one, but this draw down right here, pretty brutal. We see it time time again. Is it a guarantee that it's going to happen? Absolutely not. But I Just want to let you know Now, by the time we get a third of the way through October Basically till the end of the month, it actually becomes really, really bullish.

Now, if you missed the Sunday specialty stream yesterday, I went into a little bit more detail, but it's kind of interesting because when we think of horrific Market events, they seem to all be in October Which gets people to believe that October in a general sense is a negative month, but in reality the data doesn't suggest suest that. Yes, it, they can both be true that some of the worst events have happened in October. But when you get the average the Medan return of October over the past two to three decades, it's actually it does favor the Bulls, but it really favors the Bulls if you have the patience to wait the first third of the month. So I just wanted to bring that to your attention that right here.

like we just have to get through kind of this rough choppy part. Hey, if you're Bears, you might really like it. but I just want to let you know about the generic seasonality for o October before we get into the rest of my Spiel for today. Now, obviously, when you're talking about seasonality, there's no such thing as a 100% guarantee.

Some years it's right, Some years it's wrong. You're looking basically for scenarios where the deck is stacked in your favor now this year round. Depending on what happens in all of October even the start of October, we're very much going to have to be even more so. paying attention to politics.

And maybe you like this. Maybe you don't like this. but it does seem as if really, the next year of our life, the next year and a month of our life is going to be heavily heavily involved with politics. So I don't know? Uh, I guess for me I don't really mind taking the show in that direction I Know some of you might be uh, a little bit apprehensive of really talking about politics day in and day out, but we kind of have to.

It's almost impossible to separate the the economy and the market from major political developments and especially with an election year coming up. Um I know that some of you are going to get angry most likely and I I don't want you to take it personally, but if we're here talking about Market developments, how how could we possibly fully separate that from political developments? I I Just don't think it is possible. So I hope you stick around I Really really do? uh, but understand we're going to have to get a little bit more in the political Direction just to make uh I guess have an appropriate understanding of current market and economic development. So anyway, Biden signs a 45 day funding bill to keep the government open I think this actually caught a lot of people by surprise because it was kind of made in the last minutes before the shutdown actually happened Biden vows fix after US drops Ukraine Aid to avert a shutdown So the quote unquote GOP hardliners This is what was really making them mad and I kind of understand their argument here of why do we keep giving them Ukra more and more money in this particular development Uh, this particular bill I should say I believe there was 300 million plus dollar earmarked to continue to support Ukraine after we've already given them.

Depending on your source and how you look at it in the realm of 130 to150 billion, tell us about how this deal happened and the questions that it leaves. Well, it took up until really the very last moment. We barely averted a shutdown before the deadline of midnight Saturday here in the US But indeed, they were able to scramble together this deal that will fund the government as you said, until November 17th when we might have this fight all over again. Essentially what this deal means is that the status quo will stay in terms of spending until that date.

This deal did not include any spending cuts that conservatives were really looking for. What it did include was $16 billion in disaster Aid Given a lot of the natural disasters we have seen here in the US from the flooding recently in New York to the wildfires in Mali, but it did not include any support for Ukraine additional funding for the war in Ukraine That really have been a sticking point among many. Republicans Many Hardline right members in the house in particular had opposed any measure that would include more Ukraine funding. There were others in the Senate as well like Senator Ran Paul of Kentucky who didn't want to see Ukraine funding included in this package.

That leaves a little bit of a difficulty for the Biden Administration which has requested billions more from Congress in order to bun uh, that war Ukraine is fighting against Russia President Biden While he has said this deal is a good thing for the US, it avoids the shutdown and the furling of hundreds of thousands of federal workers. He is pushing speaker McCarthy to pass Ukraine funding in a separate measure. It's unclear exactly uh, when that might happen. and of course McCarthy's future itself is very much in question here considering conservatives did not get some of the things we were looking for or they were looking for.

as I said spending cuts not included in this package and more border measures were not included either. Yeah, and we're seeing already some moves coming from Hardline Republicans in the house to remove him from the speakership, right? Uh, how big of a risk is this? Well, this is something that has been threatened for a very long time. specifically from one individual. Republican Congressman Matt Gates of Florida He had said repeatedly that he would file a motion to vacate the speaker.

Anyone individual uh can do this under the agreement that McCarthy Uh agreed to with several of these conservative members in the house in order to become speaker in the first place and Gate says he will do this Within the next week. It would though require a majority in the House of Representatives and it's unclear right now if McCarthy would be able to survive that vote. In theory, you would need all of the Democrats or at least some of the Democrats in the part uh in the party to join with some of these Republican members like Gates and a few others who want to see Uh speaker McCarthy atin and at this time Hakeem Jeff the Democratic leader has not indicated whether Democrats May support McCarthy Those several Democratic members of Congress I spoke to within the last week did suggest if McCarthy worked with Democrats in a bipartisan measure uh to keep the government open which happened they could see Democrats maybe just voting present in a motion to vacate vote to allow the speaker to stay in his job when Congressman uh Jim Hees of Connecticut a Democrat told me last week the Democrats would choose chaos over uh would not choose chaos. Uh, instead they would maybe help McCarthy stay at Job Definitely could prompt more chaos.

uh I kind of want your thoughts on this uh and actually oh well, now it's frozen. Tell us about how this deal happened. Stop. Um, just on.

YouTube I threw up a poll and I think actually this might be one thing that my two chats, my Rumble chat and my YouTube chat might agree about. So on. YouTube I ask should we keep sending money to Ukraine 76 77 78% are currently saying no. so a quarter of the people who have voted are saying yes, we could, we should keep sending money Um so a majority not supporting the US Financial support of Ukraine Uh, interesting because I think on Rumble the number the percentage is probably even higher.

but uh I think this might be the first time where the two chats are actually agreeing with each other like this is kind of like that Meme moment of the two like biceps like coming together. Um, you guys are finally agreeing on something. uh I Guess my question though like my next followup question. Well, maybe I should share this with you first.

so there's just a little bit more context. Hang on Uh, Trumpist Congressman Matt Gates is taking aim at the house Speaker Representative Matt Gates says he will move to OU house Speaker Kevin McCarthy This week Republican Representative Matt Gate said he intends to file a motion to vacate against house Speaker Kevin McCarthy This week by week's end, he will either not be speaker, he'll be speaker serving at the pleasure of. Democrats McCarthy Worked with Democrats to pass the term spending Bill narrowly averting a government shutdown in the final hours before last night's deadline Democratic Representative Alexandria accasia or acasio Cortez just AOC It's way easier to say of New York said she would absolutely vote in favor a motion to oust McCarthy Interesting that what we could probably successfully Define as the more of the right side like the harder right side and then the harder left side AOC and Gates uh, agre in on something I Don't know like I Don't necessarily think that a government shutdown is somehow better than then coming to some sort of compromise. So basically to summarize Matt Gates's argument of like, no, we shouldn't have agreed like we shouldn't have given anything.

But really, when you're in the world of politics, when you have two different parties like there's going to be a lot of compromise. That's how you get things through. And in this scenario Gates is of the opinion that there shouldn't have been a compromise which would have led to a government shutdown. But if there is a government shutdown, not only are individuals impacted by government programs that are no longer doing what they need to do, but don't forget the looming thing was Moody giving us a downgrade which would have hit the market hard.

and if the market has hit hard every percentage Point drop or any every percentage Point increase of unemployment those have very real world effects. It's easy to say oh, let's shut down the government when you're not personally going to be impacted by it. If anything, it's G to give our elected officials a little bit of a vacation while they still collect their paychecks afterwards. So like I it's really, really, really easy to say.

You know what? I'm going to stick to my guns I'm going to let the government shut down when you're the person not being impacted by it. So I I just I don't know like this is just another example to me of the government just doing what the government does best and what they do best is not really get any work done and it really ends up becoming an embarrassment to all of us now. I would actually take the whole argument a step higher and bring up the point of why did it come to this to begin with like we know that we're there, is we know the date way beforehand. So why does it become a last second argument and if the argument is over, why are we? If really what they're getting pissed about is the amount of money we're sending to Ukraine Well, like I don't even agree with that.

like I guess to me the fact that we're even at this point talking about a shutdown and then why there's tension over it like I feel like it could have been solved so many steps earlier. so many steps earlier. So if anything, it kind of blows my mind that we just got to this point. But anyway, uh, couple things on this house fights to Al McCarthy threatens to shake balance of power so we know Matt Gates particularly this week making a move.

well at least he said he's going to make a move to. Al McCarthy McCarthy Basically in his interview said bring it hey if you don't like me for keeping the lights on and keeping the government running, let's let's go to the mat. let's fight this out. Uh, so kind of.

I don't know it's it's interesting. It's drama. People are addicted to drama. But when you realize the source that's giving us this drama, it's our elected officials who are acting like children.

And if they've shown us one thing consistently like time over time, it's the fact that they're always going to act like children. They're never going to get get their job done. But yet, they're more than happy. More than happy to take their like, what $175,000 paycheck like.

Yeah, they're They're cool with taking all that cool to line their own pockets and use taxpayer dollars to basically buy more votes and use us all of Ponds like all of the constituents. Us: we're ponds in this and they're just fighting back and forth for more power and more money. And I guess we can consistently rely on them being a massive disappointment. At least that's my opinion.

So I know many of you agree with that. but my question to you is specifically on the Matt Gates Kevin McCarthy thing. Where are you guys at on that one? Do you think that Kevin McCarthy should be oued who? I Guess who do you think's in the right here? McCarthy or Gates So if you guys could just comment that who you think's in the right, do you think McCarthy is in the right here to come to some sort of compromise so the government didn't shut down which would most likely have led to the US creditworthiness getting downgraded which would have caused the market to fall, potentially spiking on employment. Or do you think Gates is in the right? as in, no like we their compromises shouldn't be made and this is like a line that's maybe too far.

Um, Gates McCarthy All politicians are wrong McCarthy all Republicans out Gates McCarthy Gates Gates is in the right McCarthy is a weirdo. Well, arguably they're both a weirdo. Uh, Gates gates. Interesting.

so more of you are supporting and like I Don't know if this one's as as dramatic as a difference between the 78 and 22% for my Ukraine question. Uh, but with the whole Gates McCarthy thing, it seems like it's It's closer to 550, but it seems like the edge does go to Gates as in you guys are not a fan of McCarthy making the compromise interesting? Are you guys just saying this because you were yoloing some puts. Is that why you wanted the drama? you wanted the volatility. Are are you stating this from a political standpoint or from more of your like YOLO put position standpoint and you're like dude I Really want the market to go down Oh gez Gez California Governor Gavin Newsome chooses Lafonza I think is how you say it Lansa Butler to fill Diane Feen senate seat So Diane Feen It was announced last week that she passed away one of the most wealthy politicians.

She crushed it at trading as a politician in her entire career, to the point that now her children are fighting over her very sizable estate including I believe, four beautiful mansions and a hefty stock portfolio. But anyway, because she passed away, uh, there is a current standin and her name is Le Fza Butler which at least in terms of first names might be one of the coolest ones we've ever gotten in government. The Gates McCarthy protracted interchange during the house Speaker vote was an education on Kab and Kabuk Theater for me. All told me there is more come going on than meet.

Oh for sure could not agree with you more. there's always more I mean be awkward times. We've now seen AOC and Gates agreeing on things like just like there's all those little things happening in the background of politics that end up adding up to being big things Sam Bakeman freed AKA SPF Opposes Ukraine FTX victim testifying remotely. Lawyers tell trial judge just when you think this guy couldn't do more negative things to clearly make his overall situation worse, that's exactly what he does.

Sam Bakman freed if there were a list like if we just sat here and came up with ideas of like, okay, what's the worst thing he could possibly do It feels like he goes out of his way to impress us all and do even worse things: s bank being free Did not consent to a request by prosecutors filed in federal court to allow a Ukraine-based witness to testify via video conference. Prosecutors claim that FTX customer cannot testify in person due to the ongoing war in Ukraine the criminal trial of the former FTX CEO Set to begin on Tuesday and last through November Now obviously I get why he doesn't want it to happen because that's pulling on the heartstrings of everyone paying attention. But you know what also looks really bad Is this right here? Just the fact that clearly like obviously articles are going to be written about it so now it looks like you're just trying to like smother the voice of a victim like dude, this guy, he's just when it when it finally comes out I Think the golden question is is how many lifetime sentences is this dude dude possibly going to get uh, while we're going through all that ding ding ding ding. The casino is open all right.

Couple things to get into, but before we do that, I Do actually want to share some other aspects as always I Just want to wait those first 5 10, 15 20 minutes just to wait and see how things pan out. So as this is happening, just let's remember, hang on, let's do a quick overall chart view. We don't have to be slinging positions right out of the gate. Uh, we are close to a breakdown territory.

Um, the market saved itself last week. Got this downside: Gap fill to 42292 This is the Spy the ETF track in the overall Market We bounc off of it. We had a nice Gap up on Friday but then it sold off into close. So obviously there's support at the low from Friday of last week 425 91 so watch that if that breaks down then I'm watching 425 where there's a lot of Gamma exposure.

Large large put wall right there could very well be acting as support So watching for 25. Uh, obviously little bit of weakness right now. and part of the reason is this why a US recession is still likely and coming soon. even though we avoided a government shutdown when everyone expects the soft Landing bra for impact.

That's the lesson of recent economic history, and it's an uncomfortable one for the Us right now. A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remain plentiful, and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence. Not least, at the Federal Reserve that's the world's biggest economy will avoid recession. Here are six reasons why recession remains: Uh.

Bloomberg Economics based case they range from the wiring of the human brain and the mechanisms of the mechanics excuse me, a monetary policy, to strikes, higher oil prices, and a looming credit squeeze that's actually a thing that's very concerning. Not to mention the end of Taylor Swift's concert tour. Side note: Is anyone else tired now of how much the NFL is sing for? Taylor Swift I Got it with like the first game that she was at because she's now dating Travis Kelce like I I Totally get it like hey, like, whatever like we love her, blah blah blah. But she's now been at the second game when the Chiefs beat the Jets last night and every single second they could if a play was not going on, the camera was on Taylor Swift and if the camera wasn't on Taylor Swift they were making some sort of Taylor Swift either joke or reference to Taylor Swift And it's to the point that it's so in our face that like I don't know if they're trying to strike a business deal or this or that or the other thing.

but holy the NFL cannot stop sing for Taylor Swift I it it is. What if you watched the game last night it is so incredible. They talked more about Taylor Swift than they the announcers did than more than the game was going on. It blew my mind.

The bottom line history and data suggest the consensus has gotten a little too complacent, just as it did before every Us downturn over the past four decades. soft Landing calls always precede recessions. This is my favorite chart of this breakdown of why we're still heading to a recession. Look at this.

look how many times they call for a soft Landing Boom Recession calls for a soft Landing Boom recession and it's now obviously spiking again, so wouldn't be surprised if we go into another recession. So just bringing that to your attention, that, uh, it seems like whatever media is trying to shove down our throat. they're just like comically wrong on unemployment risk, skew heavily to the upside. Well, we know this through the FED Like they've stated, that they want to bring up the unemployment re like rate by a whole another percentage Point going from 3.5% up to 4.5% Um, so they're definitely looking to spike that and fed hikes are about to bite hard.

Uh, well. basically, just like the lag effect of how we're actually going to feel it. but I would argue many of us are already filling it with the higher interest rates across the board, a downturn is hiding in plain sight in the forecast. All right, check this out.

leading to what we're seeing with these strikes. Just generically, there is a large discontent I Mean we saw it with Ups and Teamsters we saw it with within. Hollywood The writers the actors are still striking. We're seeing it with the United Auto Workers It just goes and goes and goes.

Oil and treasury yield surge in September Oil is very expensive. Speaking of which, where's oil at right now? Still sitting above 90? almost at 91 as we're filming this yields are spiking. So basically I Talked about this in the wrapup video yesterday or more. I should say the prep video.

but super strange to see stocks acting like there's a recession. oil acting like there's not a recession. And then if you turn to rates, they're acting like inflation is at 10% But if you look at gold, it's acting like there is no inflation. And then when you look at what's going on in the world of real estate, well, personal real estate, individual real estate is ripping like no other.

And then if you look at corporate real estate, it feels like it's about to explode. Nothing adds up, nothing adds up. Uh, Beyonce Just talking about whatever that's a really consumer spending on, like their disposable income, extra savings run out for most of us household. Uh, you could see that there was quite a bit saved up going into the Rona period.

But ever since then, uh, just kind of actually dipping so there's still a little bit of a cushion. but the cushion is very quickly disappearing. Delinquency rates are low, but they're they' begun to climb. Uh, we just know right now that that cushion is disappearing.

We know that there's over a trillion dollars in credit card debt with the average interest payment at 5% Uh, if this breaks in a negative way, it could really break in a negative way watching these delinquency rates. I mean, look it. credit cards, auto loans. Ever since the start of 22 started to pick up and especially credit cards that is getting bad.

Without a doubt, something to pay attention to. That alone would make me very, very concerned about investing things like Visa and Mastercard Discover I mean these are just ripping right now and the credit squeeze is just getting started. Without a doubt, when Banks get this strict, it usually means recession. Well, just another graph saying yeah, no, the odds.

Obviously none of this is a guarantee and there's a saying in the market that it doesn't repeat, but it often. Rhymes that's a good open. um and so right now just looking at historic data okay, not necessarily saying a perfect repeat, but just what we're seeing. Okay, if you're a betting person, it looks like Yeah we're definitely heading towards a recession.

but I think a lot of you in here would take it to the next level and say we're already in a recession and basically the government is just playing a little fast and loose with their own definition of a recession. It It's very interesting times where heading into an election year, you have a government changing the definition of a recession. Uh, I Know we made jokes about it when that first happened, but they're like, well, technically it can't be a recession cuz the labor Market's a bit too strong right now now and everyone else is saying okay, yeah, uh, do do whatever you need to, man, do whatever you need to. Did the stock market do okay in the last recession? Uh, well.

Arguably we were. Well, not. Arguably, we were in a recession during The Rona period and the market had an all-time high. Um, so recession is commonly defined as two economic quarters that are going down as it not growing.

That's a recession. Not so. it's an economic statement, not necessarily. A Commentary About what the Market's doing in the market, you're going to hear more things like a bare Market As in it's down 20% from its high.

Something like that. Um, obviously there's a lot of correlation, but they're not exactly the same things. I Pay off my credit card debt every week. Do people really carry credit card debt month-to month? Yeah, they do.

In fact, we just hit record levels and unfortunately with it. I Don't think people appreciate how horrible the interest payments are on that credit card debt? I Mean 25% That's crazy. Absolutely crazy. Um, it's very high.

Very, very very high. Do you guys have emergency funds? I don't. But my emergency funds are now going to my wedding, so that's fun. Absolutely fun.

Uh Market Popping Remember Breakdowns Interesting below 426 In terms of upside, we are at the high from Wednesday of last week. Uh, might be a little bit more interesting to see this. uh I would be paying attention of 428 so we see some resistance. We see some support, we see some ripping through it, and then we see some resistance.

So on this upside, Target if you caught this bounce off right here. Nice bounce, nice bounce. Okay, great. I'd be watching 428 after 428 I Actually think if it gets through that I think we have a pretty easy time up to 4:30 but obviously time will tell now.

I Still have a couple other things to get into before we do some, like degenerate Level Training Interesting story that what is this? British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt rules out short-term tax cuts British F British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt rules out short-term tax cuts UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt a Monday ruled out tax cuts in the short- term, arguing that to reduce them now would be inflationary. Right now, we're forced on bringing down inflation. Uh, the comment uh, provide an early signal of what to expect in the Chancellor's Autumn statement next month, despite Rising clamor from within the conservative factions to reduce risk. Well, how did that impact the dollar? Because obviously, uh, the dollar Index the dollar Index is just Contin Look at this.

This could have been the play of the year. What a boring play it would have been. but who cares if it's boring. but making you a shitload of money, does anyone really care? the dollar? I Don't know if any of you did, but if someone had the balls to buy the dollar in mid July Like good for you man.

Seriously. I mean it's up 6.8% And a lot of the times when you're trading Forex it's highly levered. We're breakout, breakout, breakout this thing. The Dollar's just not stopping man.

Dollar not stopping. And remember, a lot of the times, there is an inverse relationship between the dollar and the market. So if as the dollar goes up, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to put downward pressure on the market. Uh, let's look at bonds.

Bonds are still getting destroyed. Dude, this is bad. Why this is bad I Know, a lot of people don't pay attention to bonds, but don't forget a lot of these banks these small to midsize. Regional Banks were yoloing into bonds way too early before the interest rates got jacked up.

As in they have a bond position that is way way higher than where bonds are currently trading at. And that's why we had two of the three largest bank blowups ever recently. and that I don't see the pressure getting mitigated here. Uh, I hope it doesn't happen because there's very realworld consequences.

But dude, we might have more. Bank blowups? We? definitely. what is this one? We have a bunch of breaking news today: Trump arrives at: New York Court for 250 million fraud trial. The $250 million civil fraud trial that could see Donald J Trump Uh, permanently banned from doing business in New York is set to begin Trump Said he plans to show up in person to the Manhattan courtroom New York Attorney General the AG Uh accuses Trump and two of his adult trilon, the Trump organization and its top officials of engaging in a yearslong pattern of financial fraud.

This is so this all happened when I was out at in LA for the second GOP debate with Rumble and I Try to understand it, but remember I'm not a lawyer I don't speak legales. But something about the please correct me if I'm wrong because I guarantee you someone in here knows more about this than I do. But something about the AG right here this person uh Leta let leetta let let Lea letia let Le let all right I was Hooked on Phonics as a child so I could figure this out. just give me a second le le I feel like Hooked on Phonics is actually kind of like and as you could tell cuz as an adult, I can't figure out any of these words, but we'll get to the bottom of it.

Pronouncenames.com The T Leticia dude surprise of the day for sure Leticia James accuses Trump two of his adult children and the Trump organization and his top officials of engaging in a yearslong pattern of financial fraud. Leticia If you're watching this, I don't need the New York AG probing me I apologize my bad. As you can tell, I'm not the most I guess hardcore reader out there, It's not often that I come across reading the word Laticia my apologies. uh but more important than that is I'm not a lawyer I don't I don't speak legal e but is it right to say and one like please? I'm probably getting this wrong.

So I would love for someone in one of you great legal minds or at least if you watch more than half of the show suits currently on. Netflix I'm trying to catch up myself. um didn't the AG in this case act as the judge, the jury and the Executioner like it was just completely her decision of like oh what things were valued and then something about like they valued his uh home in Florida the Mar Lago estate at like18 million and it was clearly worth like hundreds of millions more or something like that. um is that right? Like something like she just looked at it and she's like I think it's worth X thus you're now lying Am I getting that right? Am I getting that wrong Casey said no but egg said yes Michael said no.

it was some type of judgment out of court and the vacant property next to it was worth 24 million. Yeah, like something was weird about it Anyway I Hope that this is streamed I Highly doubt it will be. but I hope it is. Um, so lots of breaking news, lots of breaking news.

Hang on. let's get out of that bill. Amman says the economy is starting to slow and the FED is likely done hiking you know Bill and I agree. Ping Squares Bill Lman smoked to S B Squ squawkbox on Monday today.

uh and basically is saying yeah brother, we're we're kind of done with this. They're not going to overdo it that much so maybe there's one more in early November Or maybe we're just done at the current 5.25% of X. So one of the things you told the Wall Street Journal over the weekend was that you would be open. Absolutely, You said sure to using this vehicle if you will to take X Elon Musk's formerly Twitter uh public.

but the history here is they were writing an article about my tweets they've been working on for a couple weeks and then when they saw this filing I think they decided to. Well, they certainly asked me the question would we use this kind of vehicle to take X So how interested are you in taking X public you invested I should say in Twitter when Elon Musk bought it correct Yes, the Persian Square Foundation made a very small investment relative to the size of the deal $10 million in a $40 billion deal. So and would you like to buy it? So the answer is I have a lot of respect for Musk. I think Twitter is a really important platform I think he's made tremendous uh improvements to the platform and I think it's a unique you know, very difficult to disrupt kind of asset and one that could, uh, you know, grow and he's obviously going to pursue different lines of of business.

So I think it's I think it's quite interesting I don't have have information on how the business is doing I have no idea whether he has any interest in doing something. Have you spoken to him about it I have not I've not. so this is just they asked me a question. would you consider it? The answer is absolutely because I like the business I like musk and I think it's important.

he's got a lot of debt on that company. Yes, and that's where this structure is. Sorry to interrupt, But is this why my interviewing career isn't taking off to the next level is because I don't sit there with like my ah, shoot, you guys can't see it. but is this the technique that that I'm missing out on right here.

Is this what I need to be doing a lot more of just like hands on the knee like cross my knees when I do my interviews I'm more sitting like Bill like I just go there spread eagle arms flailing about but Sorin who is obviously important to CNBC he's doing much more of the Cross leg thing really getting the knuckles going there, the whites of his knuckles I don't know, just something interesting I'm noticing and I just want to I think that might be it. You got to cross your legs. All right? Well, we'll give it a whirl. We'll give it a whirl on the next one.

We'll see how it goes. You know, be hard today to try to do a$ 13 billion IPO Let's say to pay down debt. What's interesting here is we could commit Persian Square $2 billion to a transaction, set the rights price they 121 million right, set it at $100 a share, and announce a transaction. He knows he's going public.

He knows he's raising 2 billion, which certainly helps. And then we tell the story and then the rights holders have a chance to decide whether to invest. As long as the rights have positive value, the trading in the market for a dollar, they're all going to get exercised. and the IPO raises $13 And the sorry 13 billion and the investors are are who.

Who of you know? if you go back and look at the people we raise capital from, just look at the 13f list for persons we taunting Holdings it's a who's who of Institutions Uh, family offices as well as a you million. PID $44 billion for the asset? Sure, what do you think the asset's worth today? I don't know. doesn't want to get into that. That could be awkward I saw an interesting question are you Shilling for Trump now Shilling for Putin earlier and bow Trump and I think you mean and now Trump uh what are you smoking? When did I Shi for Trump or for Putin Are you really considering it? Shilling when I just cover news.

That's a interesting state of humanity when I'm reading headlines and diving into the article and you're like that's chilling. like what? How do you get through your day? Are you one of those people that if you hear like any article or opinion or discussion you don't like, you're just like chill. like dude, chill. it's called news.

We're talking about a government shutdown. Why the government almost shut down. That's not the definition of Shilling Like let's just take a beat. It's Monday It's a new week.

It's a new month. Like maybe you just need to. Maybe you just need to take a breather. You know, like let's just maybe get a coffee in you.

It's all good. It's all good. But uh. speaking of Shilling Actually, we got to show a little bit of love to the sponsor of today's stream.

I Will show right now. so sign up for this. this. Do it right now or else streety.

Free to download and you get a free one. Monon Trial with the code M A which also happens to be my name. A lot of you are going to say that's too much of a coincidence, but it is. They just hey, we're randomly going to give you four letters to give all of your viewers a 30-day trial.

and it just so happens that these four letters are the exact same four letters that people use to call me when they don't want to use my full name. Crazy, but very much. it's a coincidence. Don't look too much into it.

Download it. Free to download. Uh, obviously you get a free month trial. They don't participate in payment for order flow.

You can buy and sell stock the way you normally would, but on top of it. I Think the coolest thing is their AI co-pilots My favorite AI Co-pilot My personal favorite is the US Congress Buys as in it buys what Congress is buying, It sells what Congress is selling I have my own money in it and I plan just to let it sit there and see how it does in the long term. Um, there are other C- pilots and you could build your own. It's really cool.

no harm, no foul cuz you get a free 30-day trial. Also, they are now making Partnerships with other brokerages. So if you don't want to put money into streetbeat because your money is in another brokerage, you can still connect it to Street Be and use the street Be trading strategies if that's something that interests you. It's not just in the US it is international many countries they are approved to be operating in, so once again, pin to the top of chat in the description of the video or just download it from the Apple App Store or from the Google Play store and on the very first page when you're signing up, use the code Matt which happens to also be my name which I think is pretty cool so thank you for that reminder.

I Do appreciate if you could personally sign up the person who accused me of Shilling like if you're going to do whoa, what the this is K Tai Latia, what was your name? I'm trying to find the person who accused me of Shilling This is what happens man when you're popping off without your coffee in your system. this is all your fault if we if we look at the chat log right now 9:45 is probably when you had your d dumb comment and the you know you want to say sorry to people in here. ju you want to maybe say sorry because this is what happens when you're just popping off for absolutely no reason. Matt's a grifter, not a shill Tay Ty Nope, all caps no I at least appreciate that I do appreciate you sticking your grind like I'm not going to do it I Do think if we look into the uh, the chat log though, this might be because of you so we'll find out.

I mean that was a brutal Germany's Birkens Targets $9.2 billion valuation in New York IPO I Just wanted to bring this to your attention because we recently have had some IPOs arm not necessarily looking the best and Cart not necessarily looking the best. So I don't think that Birkenstein is necessarily going to Buck the trend, especially when Arm was like the darling that everyone was talking about. and ever since it's IPO hasn't been doing well so I'm not going to engage in it I've just seen this too many times with like the excitement in IPOs does not match its actual performance afterwards. So I am basically just going to stay away from it.

We can watch it if you want to. But I mean if you guys were there at the point in time when I was messing around with the uh, what was it coinbase IP I just got absolutely destroyed on it. So from here on out, the only IPO I'm really going to be like involved with if it ever happens is Starlink. That's the only company where I basically want to say I got in on day one and I'm holding it forever.

Um, so that's the only one. but I don't know what's happening. Someone just keeps commenting Target over and over. Whoa! Target is getting merked dude dude.

Target might be heading down to 100 101 107 I didn't realize that Target kept selling like this. Uh I have no target position but golly, if you had puts on this, you could be crushing it. Right now, it's down another 2.8% Target Getting merked murdered, murdered murdered I Don't think anyone like really like is blaming you know everyone like well go woke, go broke I mean there's many many examples of it. one that some people are trying to say it and I get it cuz they have done some things that piss people off is Disney but also Disney it's just so large and I guess I respect Bob Iger So much that I feel like it's going to end up like they still have valuable assets such as like ESPN Lucas Films the parks it it does feel like Disney's trading at some sort of discount but more ter more so in the terms of risk to reward, you don't have to risk much you could choose to like.

yep I'm just risking 79 bucks I'm risking 80 bucks like your risk could be minimal and then if it does bounce okay great o One that I did call out in the newsletter was AMD um right here AMD is at a decision point it's either going to break out and pop or get smacked and come down I don't know which way it's going to go. Uh, my crystal baller is currently not working so I can make no statements of like definitively where it's going it's more of I just seen interesting either breakout or smack which could lead to a nice trade opportunity. Um, if you're curious about all the major charts I'm watching sign up for the newsletter. It's free Mac.

Locals.com it's in the description of the video. uh I Send it out every weekend Saturday or Sunday I give a breakdown of what happened the previous week. What? I'm looking forward to in the upcoming week all the major macroeconomic reports. So for example: uh, Pal will be speaking today at 11:00 A.m.

ET Yes, we're going to be doing it. He's going to be speaking in an hour. Um, so we're going to be doing that obviously. Jolts you have unemployment on Friday all the major macroeconomic events we're not in earning season, but there's a couple earnings.

so I Figured you guys are going to want to pay attention to till RS maybe Levis but probably till Ray Um, all the seasonality for today. it actually does favor the Bulls Then we have a bearish day on Tuesday a very bullish day on Wednesday a neutral day on Thursday and then a bearish day on Friday I Give an update of the previous zero DTE option strategy. If you like it, take it. If you hate it, do the opposite.

If you don't care, don't take it. but a breakdown of all that uh, the charts of interest and U Obviously I'm always going to do the spine, the cues but then other charts like Tesla Looking for this fake out breakout. Fake out breakdown to see how it reacts to that rivan. We have a breakout.

we're going to see if that one can hold and AMD I was just noting of how it was close to some sort of decision. And then I also do a quantitative breakdown of how many times I cried in the shower the previous week. Um, I Do make it like clear here when I'm stating this, but this is not an AGG aggregate or accumulative value. it's just from the last week.

Um, you wouldn't add these up over and over. It's just a snapshot from the previous week. Um, but all the information on that is obviously here, so make sure you read that over. Um, but yeah, Macros, Locals.com it's free.

You don't have to spend money this like I send out to free for everyone. So if you want the seasonality, the macroeconomic events, all that stuff, it's free F Check it out. How are we looking right now? almost 10: A.m. The Q's are holding up a bit better than the Spy The Spy did make a fake out breakdown right here uh, probably smack some people out of their positions unfortunately.

uh and then made a nice bounce. so I'm sure some of you were not happy about that. Rivian is what I wanted to look into. So it's a name that for a bit there was super popular and now I'm watching for this breakout.

We have this nice trend line on Friday it got above it held above obviously with the weak eeve report numbers from Tesla. Well when the biggest company within the sector has a not so Bueno report, that's going to be tough. but anyway, very much closely watching Rivan to see if it could hold this Breakout specifically get above 2462 and then from there I would personally be watching 28, but the thesis might go bus if it gets below and holds below 2339. So definitely watching Rivan Rivan Rivan Rivan another.

EV Play Pretty Popular Woke Fairness stop Shilling for bullies W doesn't equal fairness. That's silly. No, it's not. If anything, I could actually argue pretty competently that a lot of Woke stuff is specifically not fair.

Like that no Woke does not equal. Faad is um I Think Woke how? How's the best way I would respond to this. Um Woke equals the facade of fairness. But a lot of the times it's just simply virtue signaling of people who want to make themselves feel better within their own social network within their.

Social Circle It's not people who are informed about systemic issues on either side. It's not people who are studying politics or the economy. It's people who can simply regurgitate headlines or they just regurgitate with their own. Social Circle Tells them to say because they are within that tribe and they don't want to feel on the outside, it's not.

There's really very few Woke. Things that you could argue is actually from a like comprehensive study or piece of research. Really, it's people trying to just tell you how good they are. That's all it is.

They're like oh, look at me I'm so good I'm so good I said the right thing please Pat me on the back it It's really more of looking for some form of Applause from like your local network than like actually informed, critical thinking or decision making. Not all of it, but that's like a lot of what woke stuff is. a lot of it. sounds like tribalism.

Well, everyone's in a tribe and that's how it works. Losers or as I call them I mean I don't think they're all losers I think it's very easy to get caught up in like your own network and like trying to feel like a part of that. Community Um, but I think my H Maybe not my biggest issue, but one of my biggest issues is a lot of times like this tribalism which in this case we'll talk about like wokeism. Um, it takes away from any form of individuality.

Uh, it takes away from any like I I guess in a weird sense responsibility that like a lot of the aspects of your own life, you're in control of. um I I feel like there's like whenever I Personally am of the opinion that when people talk about being woke and supported if there was a Ven diagram overlap, it would be a lot of people like bitching and moaning about being victims. and hey, I get it. I've done enough study of the economy and markets I Get that not everyone starts out at the same stage I Get it.

I Get it. I Get that some people in this race we call life are starting farther out I Totally totally totally get it. But as long as the people in the back of the race aren't hampered from running as fast as they want and can do what they need to do. To me, that's how things work.

Just because someone else is born or dealt with a better hand. I'm not going to knock them for that. and I don't really really care cuz I'm going to play the hand that I'm dealt. That's the game of life is.

everyone should play the hand they're dealt the best that they can. You shouldn't be bitching and moaning of someone being belted dealt a bit different hand. What you should say is okay, what's the game? What are the rules of the game and how can I play my hand most effectively? Um, because I I just I don't know. Maybe it's like more of the blue collar world that I grew up in and this like this woke thing I I never ever ever understand it because I grew up in a predominantly white area but it was a white farmer area that was by all definitions.

Blue Collar So I saw like it. It's weird when people almost take the position that like negative things only happen to some sort of minority group and poorness only affects some sort of minority group. No poorness does not see race, religion Creed or gender poorness can impact a lot lot of people and I personally witness a lot of it. U I Guess what would be colloquially referred to as like white trash it? It's as negative.

those people have the exact same things: issues with lower education, lower levels of health insurance, lower opportunities in life. It just goes and goes and goes. it. It doesn't matter like across the board when you're talking about these kind of like messed up things, it they a lot of them.

We as people try to buy it into some sort of like oh, it's impacting minority groups which is true but it also just impacts everyone. It it very very much does. uh, huge effect on the black community and literally every other community like there I Can guarantee you I Can guarantee you there are very well off minority groups doing way better than poor white groups. It's just across the board.

They I think it's easier to like bucket people by things you can see as in like the color of your skin rather than things that are maybe not so uh, apparent as in like wealth level Like yeah, let's let's just be honest, like it, life is easy, you're you're playing the game of Life on easy mode if you're born into a better financial situation. um. I Would very very much argue that that actually makes a bigger impact on your life than a lot of these other issues. Uh, and obviously it's varying degrees and there's no general statement that's going to answer all of this and like it depends where you are, your family, how you're brought up.

I Get that there's a lot of variables to the point that a generalized blanket statement is probably like inaccurate. Um, but I in the current state of things I Think money in your financial situation is most likely going to be a bigger driver than your race religion Creed Any of that uh, does Pal speak today? Yeah, in about 54 minutes, Jerome Pal will be speaking the Chairman of the Fed and the market just went a little bit crazy because uh, let's actually get the results. But we got a result at 10 a.m. right here.

the PMI and the uh. basically just ISM Manufacturing So the forecast was 47.7 that was manufacturing PMI coming in. uh, higher than expected. Then you have prices coming down a little bit so that's actually very good news.

Um, I would argue hawkish news or excuse me the opposite of doish news fighting against the hawkish FED Um, so that's exactly why the Market's actually popping right now. Is this 10: A.m. report? The old 10: A.m. report Where? Oh where is this Market going to go? It pop.

but it might not be holding team. it might not be holding the the tech sector is definitely holding on a bit better. First move is usually the wrong one. that's more on the Fomc results, not necessarily on like just generic announcemen