Illuminum illumination, Life shines constellations. London Calling your imaginary number again. sun is gone or so it sings. It's all right in front of me.

Foreign thank you. Oh, you guys woke her up. Oh this is Piper's nervous right here. It's her first Fomc meeting and she, uh, she's nervous.

Demerit Demerit this Yeah. Look at this little kitty. This little kitty. a little bit nervous about her first Fomc meeting.

We've just been sitting here trading, catching some fish on ruinscape together and her nap? Is she going back to bed? Remember she's crepuscular, so that apparently means they're active at Dawn and dusk. What is she doing? well? I'm sure at some point in this, she's gonna get completely restless. And where did you get the cat pouch? I Got it at the cat pouch store? No. if you just search, um, like I think it's like a kangaroo sweater or something like that.

it'll pop up on the interwebs. It'll pop up on the interwebs. Um, man, we have. We have so much we could get into on this particular.

Oh, she's going crazy. She's on the move. Where are we going People? Where are we going? Where are we going? Where are we going? Oh well, that didn't sound good. Where are we going with it? It's weird that like on you could like see a ear.

What if I just like stream really far away. and if I put these down we put some distance some distance in between. She's just trying to figure out a little bit about life. Whoa.

where we going brother, What are we doing? You going right for the screen. The exact thing we talked about you not doing? Yep. There She Goes There There she goes. We couldn't.

We couldn't win them all. Come on, don't knock that over folks folks, folks. Folks, Folks, folks, she's acting like this after clogging the toilet back in there. Let's for a second, let's just let's just talk about the interweb stuff.

Um, well. we have about 10 minutes so we're actually ahead of scale. Look at those little ears. those little ears.

She was bad all morning, but she's better now. Should be in a bad girl. All right, we're here for: Series This is serious business. This is serious talk.

This is financial. Market Information This is by no means a show where you could just joke around. You know there's serious money on the serious line today. This ain't this.

Ain't no joke around. Uh oh oh brother. she's on the move again. Dude.

Piper I Should like set up a different camera. Let's see if we can trick her into. Maybe maybe she'll just chill that way. Yeah, maybe she'll just chill like this for a little bit.

Hey, just chill. Just chill it. If people, you're embarrassing me in front of all my internet friends. Usually it's the parent who embarrasses the kid.

not the other way around. It's a zoo in here. Uh, where are we at? Where are we at folks? I Know you want to see the market I Know this is what you care about and in reality we got the old double Gap fill Gap fill number one Gap fill number two I Hope you made money. Easy peasy lemon squeezies.

Actually, we got the ultra rare triple Gap fill because technically this was a gap fill over here as well. So if you played those this morning, awesome, have at it! uh for me personally I mean do you know the amount of times I've been, uh, just completely horrifically burned on these Fomc days I truly try to not trade that much. So honestly, unless I see like an amazing, amazing opportunity there's a good old shot that I'm just not trading at all today but more than happy to cheer you folks on whatever you're doing. If you're like dude I'm so bullish I'm sober, whatever you're feeling, whatever your Vibe is my vibe.

so uh oh uh oh maybe Piper should decide how. how can we let Piper pick if the Market's going green or red I guess I could put up two giant panels on my computer and then like the first one she touches. How would I do? Oh, we have a mobile kitten mobile kitten alert! Well thanks, thanks for ruining the show I Hope you feel better now I Hope I Hope you feel good about the fact that you potentially just took down the entire the entire stream for everyone. She doesn't even care.

No remorse whatsoever. Can you believe that? Can you? Well, here we go. Okay, well now she's just actually on the keyboard. So there there's your stock pickle, carrot browsing because she just hits the shift button.

Folks, this is called professionalism. This is how we do it. What are you doing? huh? You want to get off of that because that's not a place for a cat. Well, all right.

Stop. Please stop. You're gonna have to get off the keyboard. Dude, this isn't Oh geez, it's all going to.

Oh, let's just go back in here like a kangaroo. Like a kangaroo brother. All right, let's get back dude. She what? I don't even know a chat.

She popped out my chat somehow. What is this close? I Think Am I still streaming. At this point it says live But well, now there's craziness coming into it folks. I Need you to know that at 2 P.m 2 P.m Eastern today, which is a mere six minutes away, we're going to be getting the results of the Fomc decision where most people are expecting it to not be changed whatsoever.

Uh, more important than that is probably the SCP the summary of economic projections which we'll be going over. It also comes out at 2PM And if you're here to hear what Daddy Pal has to say, well, he speaks at 2 30. So if you're watching this as a stream, well, unless you're Superman and you can fly around the planet so quickly that it causes it to spin the other way and either increase or decrease time, we have to just wait another half hour. Plus if you're watching this as a recording, just look at the bottom of your screen and move it ahead by about 30 minutes and then you will find Jerome Powell speaking but he does not come on to Stage for a little bit.

Um, blank screen? What do you mean? Bling did? Did Piper actually take the stream down? Wait. Can you guys see me? Hello Earth to Goonies Goonies Goonies Goonies Does your care stat? Does my cat stair step? Of course she does. Have You Seen Her Muscles You think she was just born with those Matt Is this the Lumberjack outfit you wear to steal Forest cats? Of course it is. We can see you.

No, you're good. Well it's awkward when I'm getting mixed messages on this. but um, as you guys saw I mean rewind the stream. Uh, we asked Piper to pick.

she hit something that mostly had L's as in long I didn't see any s's in there. there was no shorts and is anyone else surprised that the Market's ripping off of the fact that she just literally smashed. This is honestly a great real world example of what goes down when you just smash the buy button over and over and over again. Um, do we have the stats for what the market has done after? Pal speaks? Handy, we do well I have the stats for Woody after he speaks, but also for just the day of the day of.

like if you looked at this as a daily bar, it's 50 50. half green, half red, half Gap UPS half cap Downs basically 50 50. the only Edge I found and this is kind of suspect based on how you choose to measure it. It's more of whatever the first major move is as in from the announcement at 2PM whatever.

the first major move is about 60 70 80 of the time. Once again, depending on how you choose to measure it, it ends up uh, being reverted and actually goes the other way. So the classic like the first move is the wrong move type of a deal, so that's a major thing. But in reality, part of the reason why I don't like trading today is because we don't have solid statistics.

There's a lot of whips off. there's a lot of Randomness so if you're in and out quick and you're scalping here and there and like you're controlling your wrist I Wish you the best of luck obviously. I'm just a little hunkered down for today specifically because my fiance is busy and she doesn't have time to watch the kitten apparently. but that's why I'm on cat dad Duty It happens.

It's a it's a rough rough life but I think I could pull it off all right. I think she's finally chilling out again after breaking the keyboard. I Don't want to bring it up in front of her so we'll have to whisper about a little bit, but she's putting on some weight. Honestly, my first thought when she laid on that keyboard is uh, oh, I gotta go buy a new keyboard.

Uh, she's been. She's been beefing up as they would say in the business beefing up for shirt. What is she staring at? Now she's pissed. Now she heard what you guys were saying about her.

Now she's straight up pissed. Um, all right. Well, the SCP comes out. This is the SCP for March.

So the key things we're looking at are: any of the changes in the federal fund, rate, the estimation, all this stuff, the projection 5.1 So basically we have these projections and we're looking for the new ones to see how things change. So this came out in June Obviously they keep in mind like the previous one, so this next one, all of them will say June and we're going to be understanding basically how all the individual members change their votes. So this is a little bit of a snapshot of how it looked last time and a lot of people want to know of. Oh okay, are the dots going up? Are they going down? Are they all agreeing on the same number? Are they getting elongated? So this is the most recent Sap and obviously a new one will be coming out in about a minute and a half.

Now on the other screen over here: I Do have it ready for pal speaking so that is fired up and ready to go. But in terms of the SCP and all that I have this is ready September it'll populate right here. This is on Federal Reserve dot Gov if you want to look at it yourself, but let's get rocking. Let's get rocking.

Let's get Rocking chair Powell's Con: uh speech at Jackson Hole We've seen the needle subtly move back towards not quite, but almost to a neutral balance of risks. and I Think that what's your vote? Everyone's conference cash your vote. Right now, you're feeling bullish. You feel embarrassed.

Rates unless technically we're Green from yesterday's clothes I'm looking for a comments deeper lows the data says otherwise David Let's get a quick 20-second thought from you. 25 bits right? I Don't think there's going to be a new rate change. It's a little more dovish. yeah.

I Don't expect them to raise rates today, but I think you'll see one dot still say oh, the adults will still say one more hike this year. So I think the message will still be cautiously. Whoa. I Do think they should be done.

Boom! Someone just got annihilated. That's very interesting. Do you think they are good? but they will sound. You can almost feel the pain.

We are ready now to go for the FED decisions, the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate at five and a half percent, but the committee continues trying to determine the quote extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate. So there's this bias in the statement suggesting they're still looking to raise race, and indeed, the average Fed forecast does continue to look for one more hike this year versus the previous of Five Six Five One look at that. There are two few unemployment four, One Four Five that's built in for next year. so their prediction on unemployment for this year dropping for 2023.

remains strong 2024. Inflation unemployment for next year for next year also coming down funds rate next year that's up from Four Points so there's the higher for longer we've been talking about all morning here. And just so you, if you want to do the math with their inflation rate, it's it's now only a half point of cuts built in. This is the last time Percentage: Point next year.

this is this time rape actually goes higher next week. Lots of votes coming in for one more rate hike by the end of this year 2023. A lot of votes coming in. They have a reason.

these are all individuals. Three: This year the funds rate is above neutral by the way. All the way. One more rate hike in the market.

It's our first look at 25. they have a 2.9 If it's gonna bounce, this is the area. Two bounces right at this point. For this year, the 2.1 from one percent of the prior forecast to one and a half percent next year from one point, one percent lower the unemployment rate for the next several years by about three tenths.

So it doesn't see as much unemployment as it previously forecast and it continues to mention the banking system, but not do very much with it. It says tighter conditions, credit conditions for households could weigh on economic activity, but the extent is uncertain and it's all unanimous Guys: Guys Tyler Oh thank you very much Steve Stick around and as we bring back our panel and we're also joined by Bob Pizzani and Rick Santana And what is the market reaction? Two seconds after uh, the FED releases its report. Well, here's the effects of Uh higher for longer and a little more hawkish here, so yields up I See S P just turned negative. Well, we were up modestly uh on the day here and I think everybody wants some confirmation.

Core inflation is turning lower. but what? what you see here is, uh, more hawkish comments on the economy. Economy is growing stronger than they thought. So the GDP revised it was one percent.

Uh, the estimate. Now it's 2.1 percent. Unemployment was 4.1 now 3.8 So the economy is growing stronger than they thought. That's a little more, uh, aggressive and we're seeing yields spiking up here.

I Think the Fourth Quarter is going to be very, very hard to read. Everybody was asking me today about what are they going to say about oils open up. Yields have been up brother student loan debt. that's what people are talking about down here.

so it's going to be very hard to figure out. uh, economy to slow down but you sure didn't see it. uh here. from the from the comments uh from the FED over Tesla's in the green let's go out to uh Rick Santelli Rick what's your spin? Well it certainly looks to me like the higher for longer I would sort of modify a bit I would say holding here for longer and that really describes and I think the reason they need to hold here for longer is because like many of us, including the market sensing some very sticky inflation out there and I disagree a bit that this is hawkish.

Okay, I understand that you had 12 officials that see what more, one more rate hike, seven that sees on hold. but I also see headlines here that job getting slowed. If there was one thing to say that would be meaningful coming from the same meaningful coming from the FED, it would be job gain slowed. And if you follow non-farm payrolls or you follow the unemployment rate, it certainly seems as though that is the case.

And when it comes to the markets, look at what the two-year note yield has done, it shot back up to 514.. look at what 10s have done back to 436.. Why is this important? Many were taking solace in the fact that rates were down a bit today I Don't at all look at it that way. I Look at it that the Market's been tight, it's been orderly and it's been rising.

And yesterday, as I said on many refrains and choruses today, new Cycle High Yield closes twos, threes, fives, tens. gold getting hit too except for sevens. don't go all the way to O7 because they weren't around in O7 So we want to continue to see what the markets are saying and why are the markets out of phase with the FED Now when prior to this, when they were starting to raise rates and fed funds were more into threes and four percent area Market rates were moving down because they really thought inflation would mostly vanish, but the stickiness of certain pockets of inflation. Thumbs up.

Your thumbs down. Is this going to reverse or is it going to keep going down? Thumbs up. Or do you think it keeps dropping? Thumbs down? Comes to the Federal Reserve The first move is definitively to the downside, and there is a good statistical chance of a reversal, but not again. In other words, so they're what they're saying about next year is very hawkish, right? They've said only one or two cuts instead of three to four.

Their median rate forecast is now 5.1 instead of 4.6 percent. How much of this is what? David Wessel Just said. Which is that they're afraid of letting the market get too far ahead of itself and getting excited about rate Cuts But do you think they're actually still going to do as many rate Cuts as they previously thought was likely? You really have to heavily discount any projection for what they're going going to do more than a few months from here. They actually have no idea what they're going to do.

Um, part of this I'm going to guess might have been internal internal fed politics. There's a handful of members out there who have been talking about. yeah, they'd like to go well over time, and maybe the way you modify them and get the unanimous vote that the picture of Paul got today is saying we're not going to raise rates now, but we're going to tell people that we're not going to cut them as much. now.

when I look at the projections, you see an economy and this is how he reconciles. Here's the problem: Growth: Very strong labor market that doesn't hyper respond. We all need you up to date. Does this keep going? Yes, the economy is going to be stronger than we think.

We think unemployment is going to be lower than we think all else equal. That creates more upward pressure on inflation. How do we respond? We extend the period of monetary restraint for longer. This is essentially the trade-off.

We don't need to go higher, but we need to keep our foot at least depressed on the brake for longer to keep the economy from running ahead of its potential. If we zero in. On the last three months though, we're talking about an economy with 2.4 percent core Pce inflation adding about a hundred and some thousand jobs a month I Mean that feels to me like a very different picture than the one from three or six months ago that they might still be responding to. You could tell two stories about the economy.

You could look at the unemployment rate going up as you know many of us do and tell us that's an economy that's starting to grow below potential. Or you can look at the GDP numbers, which are what three percent or Plus for the current quarter well above potential. And by the way, we'll get new revisions on Friday and maybe the story will look very different. But I Think that if you're the FED What you say is, even if the inflation numbers are doing what we're supposed they're supposed to do, they're coming towards two percent all of our models.

All of our muscle memory says that good news on inflation cannot endure if the economy continues to run ahead of capacity, and therefore we are not going to take a chance down next year. Well We don't feel like we have to raise them now. These numbers look pretty good. Given the head of steam and the resistance thus far to tightening industry, we need to basically maintain again, the degree of restraint for longer than folks.

even that, by the way, I think Wall Street Might have been slow about this, but the Bond market we've seen tenure yields. I Think in some sense, it feels like it's more you know. foreshadowing. Stephanie Link Let me turn it to you like a Fed that is close to done with this site.

I Wouldn't be surprised if power rips this. Yeah, I Do I mean I'm first and foremost I'm glad that they paused. Not a surprise, they they have risen rates 11 times and plus they're doing QT and they're going to continue to do Q tea which doesn't get enough pressure in my opinion. Um, so now we wait and we see.

and we're now all data dependent and the dates to keep in mind are on October 11th is a PPI number on October 12th there's a CPI number. Of course we get the jobs number on the sixth, so we're all going to wait to see on that regard. I Also thought it was interesting and it's because we are doing better as an economy. Much better than what most people expected.

A lot of people at the beginning of the year Tyler expected us to take them for two days to change that number's going to happen and finally again, a reiteration of the two percent inflation Target He said it a lot at Jackson Hall and they're recommitting to it again and they're not going to in they're not going to come off that two percent. uh inflation Target And we have a ways to go. Uh, in terms of core Pce: David Kelly Were these the uh, the hawkish sounds that you expected to hear out of the Fed Yes, they are. But I think we should be careful about this forecast.

I completely agree with Greg that they don't know what they're going to do with rates next year and what I'd say is this is not so much. it's really a self-landing scenario. If we have a soft Landing then they will only cut rates twice next year. and I think that is a a reasonable forecast.

Uh, but you know I take very seriously the drags that are gathering here. Student loan repayments I Think that higher energy prices drag on this on the US economy. uh I Think the UAW strike is troublesome I think the possibility of government shutdown is troublesome I think the effect of higher interest rates is uh, on the banking system, onto on lending. All of these things are are building pressure on the economy.

so even though the third quarter is going to look spectacular in terms of GDP growth, it's going to slow sequentially after that. And I think the FED is is is not out of the woods in terms of having a recession in 2024, even though this forecast would suggest no recession in 2024.. Greg You want to jump in? Yeah, there's one point from Powell's soon when the press conference begins and as you believe in the past, he will also recession 2020 before the opposite direction of the sentiment that you get from the statement and the projections right? What I'm going to listen for very carefully is how does he talk about those out your projections for the federal funds rate? When Sheriff Powell really wants to drive a point home and he thinks that the SCP the projections are helping him that he will align himself, he'll he'll cite the projects he actually wants to subtract from that. he'll often say, well, that's just that's not necessarily A Promise It's just a bunch of people putting numbers down.

So does he align himself with that more hawkish your forecast Or does he play it down? That's what I'm looking for? John Bellows Jump in here. Uh, your reaction to what's just taking place? You know a lot of our conversation has been about growth, and it does seem like the FED has responded primarily to the better than expected growth. Um, but I wouldn't want to over extrapolate the good growth that we've had. You know, a lot of that has been for kind of very pandemic or post-pandemic specific reasons.

There's been a fiscal impulse on top of that, but those aren't things that you can extrapolate forward. So as you try and put your Forward Thinking on, you know I do think you need to take into account the lags of monetary policy that's straight from restricted monetary policy. And so I wouldn't want to over extrapolate growth. And so when I look at this forecast both for growth and and for interesting I'm a little bit concerned they're over extrapolating on the good growth we've had.

and if growth slows, which you know I think there's a reasonable chance that it will I Think the outcome could be quite different than what they've written down. Steve I Am completely afraid people might be missing a story here. I Think the way to think about the FED is in the context and what they're forecasting and that real rate shows that they are tightening next year. I Think this is a recipe for the FED to be blowing.

the possibility of a soft Landing Uh, Greg is right. They don't know what they're going to do. They don't know what the economic outcomes are going to be. David Kelly could be right there.

A lot of these things Gathering up could create softness. but the interesting thing to me is the intention of the board at this point to maintain such a high rate while they did not change their inflation. Outlook So they are looking at a real rate that is more restricted right now this year we may have a chance to ask Chair Powell about that, but the idea of the real rate going up and not going down even a little bit like it was previously forecast to me is worrisome and something that needs to be watched by the real rate. Be seeing the difference between what their expected rate of the Federal funds will be next year versus the Uh numbers right versus core inflation and that not because they expect inflation to go down very much, but it's because they expect rates to stay.

They do right. They do expect inflation to go down, and they're not. I mean they're not lowering rates as much. Um.

and and I I I'm curious to know what's behind that, but there is certainly in the forecast a turn towards hawkishness in those forecasts. For the outlook for next, let's take the market. Very interesting, all right. Thanks to our panel everybody, we appreciate it, appreciate your time and we are of course of course moments away from hearing from Fed Chair Jay Powell himself to the decision from former Fed Vice Chairman.

Great, We'll be right back. Well what do you have to say for yourself I wish I could could I move this around. She's just kind of chilling. They had Rick talking markets bouncing back dude.

she really just wants to keep knocking stuff off this table. Um, while they're on break. The major thing I want to point out is how a lot of the voting Fomc members they did for this year. they really came in at basically like the 5.5 when we're at 5.25 with the leftover of them coming in at 5.25 which is where we're already at.

So one, two three four five, six seven, the seventh. think we're gonna stay and obviously more of them think we're gonna get one more rate hike by the end of this year. So this is the current Dot Plot this is last Dot Plot Last Stop Plot also had just like a little bit more of a spread for 2024 and those numbers are starting to shore up, um, ever so slightly. The interesting thing that jumped out to me is the current Productions predictions relative to the previous.

So like unemployment for this year, they're predicting 3.8 Last time they thought it would be 4.1 for the same time period Pce 3.3 they thought it'd be 3.2 so that's a little bit of a spike. Uh, but if you look at core 3.7 versus 3.9 so they're definitely please stop I Feel like no one in this house listens to me? Real GDP they think increases next year unemployment actually lower than they thought it would be for 2024. Uh, Pce the exact same core PC the exact same federal funds rate. This is what's freaking people out a little bit.

Why was there a big jolt to the downside? where arguably yeah, they were like kind of okay, Pce slightly higher I Don't think the market would have liked that, but the Federal Funds right for 2024, Let's focus on next year I Know you guys are currently living in 2023, but let's focus on 2024. The last time around, the June prediction they thought the FED funds rate would be dropped from 5.25 to 4.5 Now they actually think no, it's going to stay at five and we're at 5.25 right now. So that's the whole higher for longer type of a deal. And then obviously in, even in 2025, they thought it'd be down to 3.4 basically calling out 3.25 and now they're saying no 3.75 So uh, this.

SCP The summary of Economic objections: these numbers in the bottom right here. Specifically, this number. the 5.1 developed relative 4.6 and 3.9 relative to 3.4 is what caused this to get staying a little bit higher I Feel like they're just listening to measure Pals News conference. Let's get some reaction Richard Clarita Former Fed Vice Chairman and Global Economic Advisor at Pimco Greg It for the Wall Street Journal Still with us Thank you for staying around Richard Welcome Good to have you with us.

You were looking for a so-called hawkish hold. Is that what we have here I Expected them probably to take out one hike from next year they took out two hikes. Um, they didn't really change the inflation Outlook that month and and also they really do have is it popping here? They have the unemployment rate peaking right at the estimate. This might be the comeback The Comeback World Tour And so this is.

let's watch. Let's see if you can get above Landing but it wants to buy some insurance against that with I Think a pretty hawkish uh pause right here and that is the idea that real interest rates the difference between the rate and the inflation rate uh is actually going to rise next year. What would you say? The message is in that I Think the message is that this is a committee that is probably happy with where they are and where they're projecting, but they do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past of of premature mission accomplished as we saw in the 60s and 70s. and so I think the balance here is reducing rates less rapidly than inflation to keep stance in a relatively restrictive Zone with what is a very very hot and healthy labor market and growth projection.

on the other side, how much of a complicating factor is the fiscal spending that our Congress reporter Emily Wilkins just highlighted? You know, just today they're dispersing another 200 plus million dollars from the chips act. Oh well, that's right. and I think our expert team here does think that the Chips Act and the other Uh legislation will will introduce be introduced to the economy over time. So it's not necessarily a big impact in this guy.

But of course, let's be honest, fiscal policy has been a big surprise. We've had a big increase in the deficit. Uh, this year there's still some accumulated saving from past Uh programs. So fiscal policy I Think we'll come back to this I don't think they're going to be saying anything that's particularly enlightening.

The major thing I would say is watch for the breakout and hold of 442.65 or watch for the breakdown and hold below 441.50 So basically 442.50 440 150. That's the make or break it Zone The initial smash to the downside once again was because of the increase in where they think we're going to go. basically. so that's this whole rhetoric around the hawkish pause.

but I saw this that I thought was interesting. So why not do a live reaction? why not do a live reaction we have here. What do we have here just in U.S Congressman says government is using quote-unquote Mafia tactics to investigate Elon Musk Because they exposed their censorship regime General Garland Elon Musk was a Democrat who admittedly supported Biden but then he became a Critic of the administration and exposed the censorship regime. Now part of public reports, the Doj has opened not one, but two investigations of Elon Musk Mark Zuckerberg On the other hand, spent 400 million dollars in 2020 tilting the elections secretly for Democrats no investigations whatsoever.

To the American public, these look like Mafia tactics. You pays your money. We look the other way. You get in our way.

We punish you. The American public sees what these tactics are. General Garland Elon Musk was a demo. What are your thoughts on it? Do you think the government is using quote unquote Mafia tactics to kind of come after these technocrats who aren't necessarily playing ball with them because right there they brought up the case of Elon versus Mark Zuckerberg something to consider I guess while we're here that I mean I wouldn't I I very much believe it.

This guy's RuneScape bank is worth 200k. That's over 770 billion GP Many of you know that I am deep into the game of Osrs fishing I just like to relax, rewind, and figure out some things related to Life by just catching some digital fish. So of course the fact that that's happening and then I see this tweet: this guy's RuneScape bank is worth 200 000 US Dollars which is over 770 billion GP blows my mind now. I'm not really saying I know much about this game, but the fact that they're going through this showing everything that they have here.

third age pickaxe. So I guess that's good I guess that's valuable I guess this is all the fat Twisted bow. It seems like he has a lot of these things that I'm assuming are the highest valuable things in the game. I Guess if you're watching this and you know more, is this accurate, Is it actually worth 200k? Um.

I'd Be curious because I'm just I'm just catching some trout, just catching some salmon I Keep it simple I Like to keep it simple. all right. What else? The most expensive attraction in Vegas The city that I Guess we all keep our little secrets there. Well, a new one's built 2.6 Billy and it's much more than just a giant eyeball.

this sphere. it's a little loud. this is what it looks like from the inside. super high tech this stuff going on and it's just this giant orb with some of the most.

Cutting Edge some of the most Cutting Edge Technological developments and I did a little bit more of a deep dive. Um, so the costs are Sky High and that's mainly because it is making it the most expensive venue in. Las Vegas This high price tag has raised concerns about the venue's ability to earn its money back. However, Msg's fear ambition may play to its Advantage as an entertainment venue.

So basically they're looking at sold out shows, advertisements, concerts, just crazy acts and I have to admit I looked up more photos, more videos and I myself am actually kind of impressed with how cool it looks. So the next time I'm out in Vegas I'm going to see whatever shows are going on there because why would you not check it out? So I get I guess I Want to get your thoughts on it when you're spending over two? Billy on the newest attraction and obviously a high entertainment area? I.E Vegas You think it's going to be worth it? You think it's going to pay off? Or do you think it's going to end up just being a bust it on? Whoa Oh hello. I'm literally working right now. This is stop stop.

You're embarrassing me. Thank you. You know, call me old-fashioned but I grew up in a time when if you were working you didn't get interrupted I grew up in a time if you were just grinding it out on the internet, hanging out with all your internet friends that you wouldn't have someone come in and lick your face. you know? and I get it? Maybe I'm a little too conservative, Maybe I'm a little bit too straight laced, but if you're streaming till millions of your internet friends, you really think someone would just come in and lick your face like that off that for all I know that's going to get cut out, put on to only fans and probably get me kicked off the internet.

All these like safer work websites, they're gonna be like nope, we can't have that kind of content. Um, so it was nice knowing you guys this is. There's a high statistical chance that this will be my last stream on these normal websites for just crossing some sort of safety line. We were talking about the sphere and now we're just now.

Now we're doing this. Now you've you've interrupted the entire show. I Hope I Hope I Hope she feels good about the attention she got. That's all.

She just wants. Attention, Attention attention here. Here's where we are anyway. Uh, in terms of The Upside breakout level, maybe a good pop back? Maybe a good pop back? Daddy Pal, the guy who runs our entire Financial lives will be speaking in a mere four minutes.

Uh, so we're gonna see how things are going. The two-year no yield Rises as high as 5.15 the highest in July obviously yields up bonds down the two-year note. Yield is now a mass of 500 basis points in uh, whoa. In since August of 2021 Huge rip, Huge rip.

these yields are popping. Man, those money market funds are probably paying nice right now. First human patent to be implanted with the neuraling brainship. Whoa Patent I mean patient.

Someone's getting it. Did Elon actually say this? Would you guys sign up for that to be like one of the the first tests. Neuralink. We're excited to announce the recruitment is open for our first inhuman clinical trial.

The fierce human patient will soon receive a neural link device. This ultimately has the potential to restore full body movement in the long term. Neurolink hopes to play a role in: AI Risk civilization, Risk reduction by improving human to Ai and human to human bandwidth by several orders of magnitude. Imagine if Stephen Hawking had had this whoa uh well, that's probably going to get me in trouble if I play it.

so I'm not going to play it I Don't know if I'd be so jumpy to be the first patient, but I also understand the people who could use it. They probably look at life as hey, I don't have Mobility like at all. So like I I would assume a lot of the people signing up are basically like arguing that it can't get much worse. Um, so I don't know I Hope it's successful.

Game changing, Snico may join Aiden Ross in interviewing Kim Jong-un Is this actually happening? Someone on the internet needs to tell me this is Snico actually interviewing Kim Jong-un and apparently with Aiden like What's Happening Here Sneako Update: What the what's going on in this world? Why does it has to like? Someone needs to tell me something. Also, how did Snico get big? Like what did Snico do That people were like yeah, he's a big streamer I know he was big back in the day I know he's now big on Rumble But what? What was Snico's claim to fame? The interview? That's one of the best movies ever made. Honestly, that's a top tier movie, top tier movie. Here's what.

All right. We went over that. They made six changes. They're still talking.

we're waiting for uh Pal I have the speech ready. Actually, we should prep that up because I don't have the most time right now. All right. Well, that one doesn't work.

All right. We'll do this. window capture, window capture. Oh, shout out to Street Beat for sponsoring today's stream.

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Sign up. Sign up. Why would they be playing that music right now? That's crazy. Why would they play music that they know just gets everyone Dmca'd Oh, don't do that.

They really need to figure some of this out. All right. I'll just cut it from this box. but sign up for Street Robo Advisor: No payment for order flow.

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download it free to download. It's on the Apple App Store It's on the Android Play store. Do what you need to really already lagging and we're just getting going. What are they doing here? Are we going? Uh.

volume? We're jumping all over the place. Make up your mind. Come on pal. Tell us what you have.

Are you slinging calls? are you slinging puts? Uh oh. The market is not liking this delay, that's for sure. Hello, Who's just walking out? Um, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation bro.

Fix your website No, No, no, no, no, no ability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary pop.

We've raised our policy interest rate by five and a quarter. We're going 40 points and I've continued. Here We go our Securities Holdings at a Brisk pace. We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt.

Today we decided to leave our policy interest rate Unchained First move is the wrong one to reduce our Securities Holdings. Looking ahead, we're in a position to proceed. They raise rates now. They kept them constant traditional policy firming that may be appropriate.

Our decisions will be based on our ongoing assessments of the incoming data and the evolving Outlook and risks. I will have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, and so far this year, growth in Real GDP has come in above expectations. Recent readings on consumer spending have been particularly robust.

Activity in the housing sector has picked up somewhat, though it remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. There's that pop right where we started back to 443 and a half. In our summary of economic projections or nothing like a two dollar movement up their assessments of real GDP Growth: with the median for this year now at 2.1 percent, participants expect growth to cool, with the median projection falling to 1.5 percent. Next year, the labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance.

Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 150 000 jobs per month, a strong Pace that is nevertheless well below that scene. Earlier in the year, the unemployment rate ticked up in August but remains low at 3.8 percent. The labor force participation rate has moved up since late last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years. not a wage.

Growth has shown some signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far. This year recovery, although the jobs to workers gaps will Mark out the intraday. High Let's see if we're really going to go ripping for it. I Have available workers Fomc participants expect the rebound.

44444444. That's the real watch. The median unemployment rate projection in the SCP rises from 3.8 percent at the end of this year to 4.1 percent over the next two years. Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent their data.

We estimate the 12 months ending in August and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core Pce prices arose well. smack. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, and longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored Low-key I Think that's just your audio systems I'm coming through this minus six decibels, which is the right Auditors from financial markets. Nevertheless, the progress, the process of getting inflation sustainably down to two percent has a long way to go.

The median projection in the SCP for total Pce inflation is 3.3 percent this year Falls to two and a half percent next year, and reaches two percent in 2026.. the Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strong inflation. To our as I noted earlier, since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by five and a quarter percentage points.

We see the current stance of monetary policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. In addition, the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses. In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for their Federal Funds rate at five and a quarter to five and a half percent, and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our two percent goal over time. In our SCP Fomc participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the Federal Funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely sorry the most likely scenario going forward.

If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects at the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year, 5.1 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.9 percent at the end of 2025.. Compared with our June summary of economic projections, the median projection is unrevised toward the end of this year, but has moved up by a half percentage point at the end of the next two years. These prediction projections, of course, are not a committee's decision or plan. If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path of policy will adjust as appropriate to Foster our maximum employment and Price stability goals.

We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting based on the totality of the income there we go and their implications for the Outlook we're ripping now folks. inflation as well. I Wouldn't be surprised if we take out the intraday high from here. Even how far we are recoveries, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving Outlook and risks.

Real interest rates now are well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate, but we are mindful of the inherent uncertainties in precisely gauging The Stance of policy. We're prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we're confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent over time. The committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary accept policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments. we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal into keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission.

We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. The financial times makes the committee inclined to think that the FED funds rate at this level is not yet sufficiently restrictive, especially when in officials are forecasting a slightly more benign inflation outlook for this year. There's noted uncertainty about policy lags.

Headwinds have emerged from the looming government shutdown, the end of federal child care funding, resumption of student debt payments. um, things of that nature. All right? So I Guess I Would Um characterize? Yes. So we decided to maintain the target range for the Feller funds rate, where it is at five and a quarter to five and a half percent, while continuing to reduce our Securities Holdings And we say we're committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation to two percent of our time.

We said that. Um, but the fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn't mean that we've decided that we have or have not at this time reached, uh, that that that stance of monetary policy that we're seeking. If you looked at the SCP as you as you obviously will have done, you will see that a majority of participants believe that it is more likely than not that we will that it will be appropriate for us to raise rates one more time in the two remaining meetings. Whoa.

Tonto Others, uh, believe that we have already reached that. So it's it's something where we're by by we're not making a decision. The Market's not gonna like him talking about that. about that question by deciding to just maintain the rate and await further data.

Um, so right now it's still an open question about sufficiently restrictive. You're not saying today that we've reached this level. Um, we're not saying yeah, No. I Know Clearly, we're just what we decided to do is maintain the policy rate and await further data.

We want to see convincing evidence, really, that we have reached the appropriate level and and you know we're we. We're seeing progress and and we welcome that. But uh, you know we need to see more progress before we'll be willing to what's behind that shallower path. Uh, for interest rate cuts and the need for real rates to be 50 basis points higher, right? So um, I would say it this way.

For first of all, um, interest rates Real interest rates are are positive. Now they're meaningfully positive. And that's a good thing. We need a policy to be restrictive so that we can get inflation down to Target.

Okay, and we need. We're going to need that to remain to be the case for some time. Uh, so I Think you know? Remember that the of course the SCP is not a plan that is negotiated or discussed really as a plan, it's accumulation really. And what you see are the medians.

the accumulation of individual forecasts from 19 people and then what you're seeing are the medians. So I wouldn't want to, you know, bestow upon it the idea that that's really a plan. But what it reflects though, is that economic activity has been stronger than we expected, stronger than I think everyone expected. And and so what? What you're what you're seeing is this is what people believe as of now will be appropriate to achieve what we're looking to achieve.

which is progress toward our Uh toward our inflation goal as you see in the SCP Hi chair. Powell Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions. How would you characterize the debate around another hike or holding steady? Is it discussion around lag times? Fear of too much slowing? Too little slowing. Could you walk us through what this disagreement was about at the meeting? Yeah.

So the proposal at the meeting was to was to maintain our current policy stance and and I think there was obviously unanimous support for that. But this of course is an SCP meeting. And so people write down what they think and you've got you have some you saw I think Seven wrote down no hike at this at this meeting or between now and the end of the year and I think 12 wrote down uh, another single hike in one of the next two meetings that we have between the end of these. So it wasn't like we were arguing over that, people just stating their positions and really what what people are saying is, let's see how the data come in.

You know we want to see. You know what we want to see. We want to see that that this this, uh, these good inflation readings that we've been seeing for the last three months. We want to see that it's more than just three months, right? We want to see.

You know? The The Labor Market report that we received the last one and we're back was a good example of we do what we do want to see. It was a combination. It was a good. He shot that talk across a broad range of indicators.

continuing rebalancing of the labor market. So those are the two things. Those are our two mandate variables and and that's that's the progress that we want to see. But I Think people, they want to be convinced.

You know they want to be careful to not to jump to a conclusion really one way or the other, but just be convinced that the data you know support that conclusion. And that's why. Uh, given how far we've come and how quickly we've come, we're actually in a position to be able to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlooks and risks and make these decisions. Meeting by meeting and in your view, what would I know? Nothing has been decided yet, but what would one more hike at the end of the year do to the economy or to inflation? On and on the other side, what would no hike do if you could sort of game that out for us so you know you can make the argument that one hike one way or the other won't matter.

But for us, we're trying, we've obviously as a group, it's a pretty tight cluster of uh of where we think that that policy stance might be, but we're always going to be learning from data. You know, we've learned all through the course of the last year that actually we needed to go further than we had thought. If you go back a year and what we thought, what we wrote down, it's actually gotten higher and higher so we don't really know. And until.

And that's why again, we're in a position to proceed carefully. At this point, a year ago, we proceeded pretty quickly to get rates up. Now now we're fairly close we think to where we need to get. Um, it's It's just a question of reaching the right stance.

I wouldn't attribute huge importance to one hike. uh in macroeconomic terms. Nonetheless, you know we need. We need to get to a place where we're confident that we have a stance that will bring inflation down to two percent over time.

That's what we need to get to. and we've been. You know we've been moving toward it. As we've gotten closer to it, we just slowed the pace at which we've moved I Think that was appropriate and now that we're getting closer, we we again we have the ability to proceed carefully.

Uh, Stephen CNBC Mr Chairman Hey, Steve question here. Um, what is it saying about the committee's view of the inflation dynamic in the economy that you achieve the same core cast inflation rate for next year but need another half a point of the funds rate on it? Does it tell you that? Tell us that the committee believes inflation to be more persistent requires more medicine effectively. And I guess the related question is if you're gonna project a funds rate above the longer run rate for four years in a row, at what point do we start to think hey, maybe the longer rate or the Nutri rate is actually higher Thank you. So those are some good questions.

I guess I would Point more to rather than pointing to a sense of inflation having become more persistent I Wouldn't think that's not. We've seen inflation be more persistent over the course of the past year, but I wouldn't say that's something that's appeared in the recent data. It's more about stronger economic activity. I would say so.

if I had to attribute one thing again, we're we're picking a medians here and trying to attribute one explanation. But I think broadly stronger economic activity means means rates. We have to do more with rates. and that's what.

that's what that meaning is is telling you. Um, in terms of of what the neutral rate can be, You know we we, uh, we, We know it by its works. We only know what Bytes works. Really, we can't We can't.

You know the the models and and that we use you. Ultimately, you only know when you get there. And and by by the way, the economy reacts. And again, that's another reason why we're We're moving carefully Now, because you know there are lags here, so that it it may.

It may of course be that that the uh, that the neutral rate has risen. You do see people. You don't see the median moving, but you do see people raising their estimates of of the neutral rate. And it's certainly plausible that the neutral rate is higher than uh than the longer run rate.

Remember what we write down in the SCP is the longer run rate. It is certainly possible that uh, you know that the that the neutral rate at this moment is higher than that big hit I didn't like that question. The explanation for why the economy has been more resilient than than expected. Uh Howard Schneider with Reuters thank you.

Um, so you've said several times that the economy needed a period of below Trend growth. Uh, to get inflation consistently back to two percent. You kind of get that in 2024, a little bit. 1.5 percent is just a touch below.

Uh, what's the estimate of potential? so? uh, the fact that you're getting so much done at so much less cost. Does that represent a change in how you think inflation? Works A change in how you think the economy Works A change in the mix of Supply healing versus demand destruction That's necessary to achieve this? Yes, of course it is. A It is a good thing that we've we've seen now meaningful rebalancing in the labor market without an increase in unemployment. And that's that's because we're seeing that rebalancing in other places in, for example, job openings and in, um, the Jobs Worker Gap you're also seeing supply side things.

So so that's happening. Um I Would say though we still I still think and I think broadly. people still think that they'll have to be some softening in the labor market that can come through more Supply As we've seen as well. Also, remember the natural rate we think is is coming down, which is a supply side thing so that the the gap between any given unemployment rate that's lower than that and the natural rate comes down.

That's a way for Supply That's a way for the labor market to achieve a better balance. So all of those things are happening. You're right in in the in the median forecast. We don't see a big increase in unemployment.

We do see an increase and but that's that really is just playing forward the trends that we've been seeing that is not guaranteed there. There may come a time when unemployment goes up more than that, but that's that's really what we've been seeing is progress without higher unemployment for now. So just to boil that down for a second. Um, you know we've gone from a very narrow path to a A to a soft Landing Uh, to something different.

um, expectation. If this takes out No. 440 the low from yesterday I would just say what would I say about that? um I've always thought that the soft Landing was was a plausible outcome that there was a path really to to a soft Landing I Thought that and I've said that since we lifted off, it's also possible that the path is narrowed and it's widened apparently. Uh, ultimately.

um, admit this may be decided by factors that are that are outside our control at the end of the day. but I do think it's I do at the end of the day and you know I Also think um, you know holy guacamole uh that I'm telling you you will respond what's 440. we know that we have to do that and we know the public depends on us doing that the old. and we know that we have to do it so that we can achieve the kind of labor market that we all want.

Your calls Palestinians sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. We know that the fact that we've come this far, uh, lets us really, uh, proceed carefully is as I keep saying so. I think um, you know that's that's the end we're trying to achieve. Um I Wouldn't want to handicap the likelihood of it though.

it's not up to me to do that. Nick Tamaros of the Wall Street Journal uh chair Powell Both you and vice chair Williams have indicated that sufficiently restrictive will be judged on a real rather than nominal basis, implying some scope for nominal rate. Cuts Next year provided further compelling evidence. Uh, the price pressures will continue to subside.

Is the Fomc focused on targeting a real level of policy restriction? and can you explain what would constitute enough evidence that will allow the Fomc to normalize the nominal stanza policy while keeping real policy settings sufficiently restrictive? I Mean yes, We we understand that it's a real rate that will matter and it needs to be sufficiently restrictive. And again, I would say you know you know sufficiently restrictive only when you see it you. It's not something you can arrive at with confidence estimates, you know. And so what are we seeing? We're seeing.

You know through a combination of the you know, the unwinding of the pandemic related demand and supply distortions and monetary policies work in suppressing demand or or alleviating very high demand. The combination of those two things is actually working. You're seeing. You know, uh, inflation coming down.

It's principally now in Goods. Also in Housing Services you begin to see effects of it in non-housing Services as well. So I think we think that that is working and um, I I think what you know. As we've said, we want to reach that we want to reach Something That We're confident.

Uh, it gets us to that level. And I think confidence comes from seeing you know enough data that you feel like yes, okay, this feels like it. We can. We can for now, decide that this is the right level and just agree to stay here.

We're not permanently deciding not to go higher, but but we would. Let's say if we get to that level and then the question is, how long do you stay at that level and that's a whole other set of questions for now. the question is trying to find that level where we think we can stay there and we haven't, We haven't gotten to a point of confidence about that yet. Uh, that's that's what we're That's the stage we're at though, but it looks like there was because there wasn't across the board.

drop in the core Pce projection core PC Inflation projection for this year, and even then it seems possible the core Pce inflation could come in even lower than the median at 3.7 percent. Would you see a case to raise rates? Still, if it turned out that you were going to achieve the same real rate this year, because the decline in inflation proceeds somewhat better than you than you currently anticipate the decision that we make at, you know, at each meeting, and certainly at the last two meetings this year, it's going to depend on the totality of all the data. So the inflation data, the labor market data, the growth data, the the balance of risks, and the other events that are happening out there, we'll make. We take all of that into account.

So I can't really answer a hypothetical about one piece of that? It'll It'll be trying to reach a judgment over whether we should move forward with another rate hike overall, and whether that would increase our confidence that that. yes, this is an appropriate movement. It will help help us be more confident that we've gotten to the level that we need to get to the market is not picking up what he's laying down right now. he's looking at his puts, he's like, um, next question actually Um John Williams the New York Fed President.

Obviously, Um has said things to the effect of next year as we see inflation kind of again to Nick's Point As we see inflation coming down, we're going to need to reduce interest rates to make sure that we're not squeezing the economy harder and harder over time. And I wonder if that's