Me crazy. Well, they're just hoping destinations this way foreign for me brother. Good morning, good morning, good morning. Welcome back to another episode of the Matt Core show It is Tuesday September 19th and I Wanted to start early today just to start early today.

I was sitting here I was ready to go I'm still dealing with the fact that Piper clogged the toilet after eating half that London Broil In fact I had to order one of those plunger snakes to get it all fixed and it is not going the way I Exactly want it to be going so that is. Um, it's a bit of a bummer. It's a bit of bummer to say the least, but that's all right because we're gonna pay for that plunger snake today by ideally crushing, uh, crushing some of these trades. I Just want to make sure I'm coming through getting a bit of lag am I here Are you guys hearing me? Is my hair okay? I guess two questions.

Is my hair okay? obviously. The first and foremost question and then my second question is um, can you guys hear me? uh uh. it's funny how you're talking about toilets and cleaning the toilets. Well, that's literally what's going on in my life.

So if your Kitty's still blocking the restroom dude, she's been so bad this morning, she's getting to that point where she's like I don't know, not like her full body size, but getting there and like I don't know. she's just not like a kitten kitten anymore So she's starting to uh, get like a lot of energy. She's up all the time, She's running head first into every single wall that she possibly can. and I guess this is just the this is the life of being a cat parent I suppose Uh, it's just.

it's just one of those things. It's one of those things. It's one of those things. So Tuesday the day before the day before the Fomc decision 2 P.M Tomorrow we get the results that are most likely going to be no Fed rate change.

but then what's really going to be moving the markets is Jerome Powell the chairman of the FED basically talking tomorrow saying hey, I'm hawkish I'm dovish, he'll say something and the markets are either going to go Sky High or they're going to go down. At least that's what I'm anticipating. So that's all going down tomorrow. But between now and then there are some other things coming out.

We have the CPI report out of the Eurozone coming out this morning at 5am crack of dawn. That's why I'm really starting early because I wanted to get up and catch that live when I was crushing it on the stair stepper and I hope that's what you were doing too. So that came out at five. If you don't know the results, they came in a little bit cool.

uh, inflation down a little bit more than expected. So that's some positive signs for the world that maybe we're getting ahead of inflation. So that's how the Eurozone I believe we have building permits also. still this morning here in the U.S tomorrow is going to be the crazy day.

We're going to go over seasonality as well. We have some needs to talk about. Instacart is ipoing today. The estimation is around thirty dollars, so we could be talking about that to see if there's any craziness.

As always, have nothing particularly negative to say about Instacart I don't know anything about its fundamentals, but I'm also not going to be trading it or screwing around with it today just because I have been burned on too many IPOs in the past that I think I'm at the point that the only other IPO I'm really going to get involved in is if it ever IPOs is Starlink just because I think that's going to be a very, very quality company and I just want to say I've been in it since day one so that's probably the only time I'm really gonna break my rule unless like another just amazing unicorn company comes across, but that's what I'm looking at. So instacart coming out today. we have some. Speaking of Starlink and Elon Musk We have some interesting commentary from Elon of moving Twitter to a subscription-based model, so we're going to be talking a little bit about that as well I have just some clips and the quotes and stuff so we could talk about that A little bit of an update on the world of Energy and Oil obviously still strong, still bullish.

and then I found a hedge fund that since 2019 until now is up over 700 percent. and basically their thesis is very long on oil. very long on uranium. so we could talk about that.

I have an update of what's going on with the United Autos workers. I Guess the strike that's currently going on looks like it's kind of getting it. looks like it's heading in the direction of getting worse. So we're going to talk about that.

A little bit of a political update. basically. what's going on with or According to some journalists: I Don't know if this is actually how it's going to play out, but according to some journalists, what's going to be happening with the potential government shutdown. So there's a lot to talk about.

A lot to talk about, a lot to talk about I See one question right here: What's happening with Rum right now? If I had to guess I think it's the anticipation that insiders are selling because the vesting period lockup is now over I was looking on Infinities this morning I Was looking on Fintel this morning. There's no reports that insiders have been selling, but I think right now it's big because of concerns related to that. So it's actually getting to the point where if we go a couple days and there's still no report of any Insider selling I actually might be using this opportunity to average down what's your Tweet about once a suit? Oh, is the suit Oh, basically my personal opinion on how Adam Aaron's a complete scumbag. but once again, those are my own thoughts.

Do your own due diligence? Do your own research? come up with your own conclusions. But in my mind, when you're trying to alter the Articles of Incorporation of your company, so there is I guess not a complete a complete protection from any form of liability, but a lot of protection from liability it it's weird the timing of it that like I I just don't get it. um I don't get anyone who right now is like oh, this is completely normal. It's one thing if they just did it originally back in the day and I know I Did some research last night and I kind of found a couple other companies that equivalent to their proposal.

Five already extends to officers, but it's strange to me the timing of it. the fact that Adam Aaron is doing it now after a dilution that a lot of people didn't want after talking about shorts will choke on that after your own Twitter profile is the Silverback Making poor investments in Saudi Arabia Making poor investments in a defunct Gold Mine Paying celebrities to be spokespeople for your company Way Way too much. Uh, selling a bunch of stock, gifting a bunch of stock, when you add up all the actual like facts of the situation and then like the cherry on top is just the guy saying hey I also want protection for like I want legal liability protection it it seems a little bit too sus. it seems a little bit too soft.

so whatever you can vote how you want I really don't care how you vote I just want to cover the news because this is what I do I did generately trade and I cover whatever news I find to be particularly interesting. So sometimes it's about Wall Street and stocks and training and other times it's about my fishing level on old school RuneScape it's a it's a variety show I just kind of covered what I find interesting sometime I'm talking to you about how my toilet's clogged from my cat eating half a half a London broil that I cooked literally to Perfection I just want to add that in there just so whoever's taking the meeting minutes today I just want that in there. Like if you could actually bold it, highlight it, put in asterisks on it the London Broil that she ate well, it was very much cooked to Perfection If you were looking for a way to cook up your steak or your London Broil I'm telling you, this oven put it in your oven 325 degrees for 25 minutes and then put it into a skillet and just sear it really quick. Super high temperature, about a minute minute and a half each side and it's going to come out perfectly medium rare.

That's how you do it. and anyone who gives it an attempt tonight, shoot me a DM Come in here tomorrow and tell us how per it's honestly probably going to be the best steak you ever cook. But anyway, so I was whipping that up the other night and she ate half of it so the toilet's clogged so that we could talk about I mean there's other? Oh, actually that's why I figured just because we started early and I do have extra things to go over this morning. so I thought it was prudent that I start early but I would also like your help I'm in a football like Pick Em league.

So basically I just need to pick the winner of each game and I would love your oh can I not do it yet? The new weeks are not out. Okay I guess we'll push that till tomorrow. I Was gonna get everyone's ideas of what. why can't I not pick next week? All right.

Anyway, if we're not doing that, what was the the thickness of the meat? So this one the London Broil I had was an inch and a half. Um, so I ended up doing 27 minutes. If if it's an inch, I've maybe an inch or slightly more. 25 minutes is the like the perfect point If it's less than an inch, you might want to do like 23 minutes.

Something in that world I Think is like a quality thing to do medium only Mike Hunt Hertz Um I Can definitely tell it does and that's probably because you eat medium temperature steak. which is it. If it was up to me, I would outlaw it. not only would I Outlaw it, but I would actually make it a treason like an actual fight against the government, an actual undermining of the government if you enjoy medium steak.

Um, that? that's just ridiculous That that's just absolutely ridiculous. Everyone knows how to cook a London broil. We need to help with the hot dogs. Yeah, I mean that's a it's kind of a secret family recipe that's been passed down for me from my great grandfather, to my grandfather, to my dad.

To me, it's kind of one of those things. like you turn 18, you become a man and like across the table they slide you the recipe. Um, but I have no issue sharing it with all of you. Uh, basically you just throw it into a microwave for like 90 seconds depending on the power of your microwave.

maybe 60 seconds, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. But in the Romans 60 to 90 seconds is when it gets fine because that's like when the hot dog like starts to peel and explode. and I think that's the quality form of the hot dog because that's when like it's opening itself up so you can put your ketchup and your mustard and whatever else you want on it. So happy to share that and honestly, that's what you get for joining the show early today.

You're going to get these professional cooking tips from me Matt because you never know what you're going to get this early in the morning. So I do appreciate you folks joining in I know it I know we were scheduled for nine I know we're already live I know you're confused and you're like why did he start early? What's wrong? Hey, nothing's wrong. no big announcements anything like that I Just found a bit of extra news that I want to cover I Want to get it out of the way before the market starts trading I Want to talk a little bit about my Prop account because I am this close to passing the test this close. If I make one to two to three good trades today I will officially have passed this test and then we'll be a funded Trader So that was like a fun challenge to do which.

Um, I Found it uniquely difficult because it's just not really my trading style I Generally go for bigger wins and bigger losses. like that's like the combo, uh, just wider range in terms of my risk and my reward. While it seems like for prop trading, the good way to do it is very minimal risk and ideally like probably smaller reward to actually lock some of those gains in. But I'll be talking about that a little bit later.

But folks I hope you're having a good one I Hope you're having a good one I hope you had a fantastic night last night I hope you caught up on whatever the newest episodes you need to watch of Psychar and I hope you're ready to crush it again today. I hope you made money yesterday. the zero DTE trade did hit if anyone took it I personally didn't take that one. If I ever take those zero DTA trades zero DTE trades I'm gonna like let you know hey I'm in this one too.

if anything, I'm just trying to collect more data on it and see where like the weak points are to try to improve and see where the strong points are to potentially double, triple, quadruple down type of a thing. just kind of working out like the system like it's almost there. It's like 85 90 of where I want it to be. but I I think we could get it to the finish line and on top of that yes, I'm actively working on getting all the robots and everything set up in the Discord we're still looking for maybe like a beta test group in later September early October with still ideally the full launch in October so we're going with that.

What's the zero? DT Trade a zero day till expiration so it's an option trade that expires that day. They're all the rage Now all the cool kids are doing it. You know how like when you were in high school there was like that cool group and like they had parties that like they couldn't invite you to because like it was already full and like they forgot your invitation and like uh they just like forgot to tell you but they would totally love if you came in like the next time but like this time like there's like already a lot of people there and like they're just worried that it like might be overcrowded like you know those kids well those are the kids trading the zero DTS um so if you want to be in that in group where like your invitation wasn't forgotten and uh you didn't hear about it like the next day about like how much fun it was and like you like totally don't about it like two decades later um yeah yeah, what do you play Spy or SPX um well depending on the day of the week you could probably trade a lot of things like obviously there's a lot of equities that expire on Friday so on Fridays you could do a ton of zero Dtes but throughout the week spy SPX Obviously SPX is a little bit more costly but if you are a profitable Trader I am no tax professional I Want to let you know that but to my understanding, you would save on taxes. Um so there you could trade zero DTS every single day.

Uh, particularly with Friday being like super super fun ones. Um, there's also like monthly expiration ones and depending on that like that is like a whole other craziness with triple quadruple witching. So obviously a lot A lot to say there. Uh, seriously, why is the Bear in front of dead The bear? It's a shape and they're friends.

They just hang out. They do sheep and bear stuff. Sheep sheep and Cactus and bear stuff? They're just buddies. They like, they hang out.

they're just. they're Pals they're Partners They do whatever they need to do well anyway. Um, I Think that's enough of prep. I Think you guys are properly primed for the show.

Hey, if you haven't already, I Would appreciate it if you could annihilate the like button really quickly because obviously if it spikes on Rubble if it spikes on YouTube there's a better chance of it being served to more people. So as we're getting going today, just murder the like button. Murder the Subscribe button. basically.

whatever you see the concurrent viewer account at I see no reason why we can't double that. I Obviously I Know that you guys have one, two, three, four different burner accounts. Log into all of them simultaneously watch the show on all these different screens and murder the like. Button Murder the suburb button.

Do everything you need to do. On that note, let's actually talk about a little market stuff. A little market stuff. So the Spy yesterday.

obviously we have three lower highs. We have three lower lows. clearly trending to the downside. right now, we're slightly below that.

We closed out the day at 4 43 63. We're at 440, 3, 41. a little bit down. Here's a look at the Futures Market We were looking a bit stronger and then it just absolutely vomited.

Actually kind of like horrifically vomited recently. So there is some concern. Uh, we're going to be going over the macroeconomic events I Just want to let you know the overnight session if you look at roughly two in the morning right here, right right here is two in the morning to about five in the morning. clear push to the upside in the London session and then obviously not holding.

As soon as we got to this 8 30 report, we will be going over that. But right now in terms of the overall Market I'm looking either for breaking hold of The Upside or breakdown and hold below the bottom side watching this bullish pennant like fill out. I Know that yes, a lot of the times it's taught that this breaks to the upside. I Want to let you know the odds on it? over 200 000 simulations on different time frames.

this works about 55 percent of the time. So yes, does it technically commonly break to the upside? Yes, it does, but the edge isn't that great. So I'm not necessarily holding my breath and betting the farm on a Breakout to the upside, but watching this and in terms of the cues saved themselves yesterday. If this ever loads, come on.

Trading view, Wake up Wake up Wake Up Trading View almost had this downside like we Gap below it, we open it below it and if it kept selling that obviously it would have been bad, but saved itself throughout the day and ended up getting rejected by the top side trend line. So clearly this is somewhat of a big decision day for the queues. Now this is an interesting situation in all reality because this could happen one way or another today. as in we could break and hold above or we could break down and hold below.

But then we have the Fomc decision and press conference by the chairman of the FED Jerome Powell tomorrow so that obviously could continue it like whatever the movement is. it can make it more a higher magnitude move or it could completely revert it. so the next two days I think could get pretty wild specifically in the queue. So I want to bring that to your attention Microsoft I Called this out in the newsletter.

If you're not signed up for the newsletter, what are you doing with your life? but anyway, clearly breaking down if it can't hold 327. if it can't hold 329 I'd be looking for a continuation to the downside in Microsoft that's just a short-term call out in the long term I Still very very very much like Microsoft In terms of Tesla we have an upside: Gap fill to 289.52 We have a downside Capital to 256.52 So we're kind of in no man's land in between two gaps long term I still like Tesla short to medium term um expecting chop Nvidia Similar to the cues basically saved themselves yesterday. So Nvidia nice trend line ever since the earnings Gap up. uh, we opened up below it.

It saved itself. Now let's see if that will actually continue. today. Might be a nice bounce opportunity or this just could be the start of a downside gamble all the way to 30607 is this level all the way down here and then the other one that's currently really on my watch list.

And it surprises me that I'm saying this is how good Carvana looks Cvna I see an inverse head and shoulders I see a cup and handle I see that if it gets above and holds above 56, this might be a nice breakout. Ripper So just want to put all these on your radar. Do whatever you want with that information. I'm not a financial advisor I'm not your mom.

It's your money. Do whatever you want with it. And I do wish you the best of luck. Stock futures drift higher ahead of Fed policy.

Meaning, dude, whatever intern is writing this for them, it's always just so awkwardly wrong. I'm coming up with this idea that maybe my best trading thesis is to do the opposite of whatever they initially write here. the the stock features are not drifting higher. This is clearly a plunge lower.

Did they update it? or am I going to have to fix it for them again. Stock features inch lower. Like literally switching out one word or two. this.

I I Think the best trading strategy literally might just be to fade whatever's going on in here that that's ridiculous to me. Why the Fed's interest rate? Move May Hinge on inflation expectations. You guys have to appreciate the comedy in that What? Of course, why the Fed's interest rate moves. May Hinge on inflation expectations.

You're telling me that the Federal Fund rate, the clear tool that they use to keep inflation in check, might hinge on what people think inflation is doing. No way. No, no way. No.

You're telling me that for a football team to win, it's gonna have to score more points than its competitor. No way. a team winning might depend on it. The score differential.

No No No No No No No no no No. So another high quality top tier headline from CNBC this morning of just telling us that things are the way that they are because that's how they are. Awesome. Now to give it to Business Insider They got a better person to write some headlines: America is stuck in a grease Pig Economy I've never heard this before, but I Love it I At least five times today.

I'm going to be talking about how we're in a greased Pig economy We I that's the comparison between these headlines is the fact that there's no comparison. This is Major Leagues And obviously them just talking to us like we're children is Little League the Grease Pig Economy. How would I not read that? I Saw that this morning and I read every single aspect of it because Ms Lopez here knows how to write a headline. Trying to catch a greased pig is an American tradition that has fallen out of fashion, so you're forgiven if you don't know the rules.

The game, once a staple of the county and state fairs, is simple enough. A small pig is covered in lubricant and thrown into a ring where contestants try to catch the animal. Basically, my Friday night. what makes it hard and fun to watch for spectators is that the pigs are shiftier than lumbering humans.

Just when you think you have a grip on them, the Slick porker once again, my Friday night. This slip porker can slip through your fingers and when it's all over, both Pig and human end up dirty since the Pandemic America has been living in an economic version of the Grease Pig game, prices have been running free despite assurances from polymer policy makers and economists that the pig AKA Inflation will be caught soon, which is to say, brought down by the FED brought down to the Federal Reserve's two percent. Target So inflation I suppose in this scenario is the pig and then the economy or maybe particularly the FED itself are the people going after the pig. you know I Didn't think about this grease.

oops. I didn't think about this when I was prepping. Is this my Chrome is just not Greased Pig contest I Never thought to try to find a video of it so we might as well hop in. Let's see what this is like.

Local celebrity Greece Pig Oh hell yeah, brother, is it actually that difficult? Well, that was easy for them. I Think they're overstating the difficulty of this I Also want to point out here that they're not. They're not necessarily like your running backs, your wide receivers, your cornerbacks. We're not necessarily picking the top tier athletes to catch one of these like I Want I Want to throw in like Saquon Barkley in there I Feel like he might be a little bit quicker in the success of actually catching the Grease Pig So maybe that's a message for everything going on right now.

Maybe we just need a top-tier freakish genetic athlete to be our chairman of the Fed to catch inflation rather than person who probably hasn't stretched in a decade and a half. probably. Diet nutrition isn't the top of their minds like I'm just saying it feels like the pigs are more athletic and More in shape than the people trying to catch the pigs. and I think we could take that as a lesson Honestly, I really do for just maybe how we have to take care of inflation this time around.

But anyway, I just wanted to point out how Business Insider today crushing it with the titles while CNBC not not so much. Now a little bit of our political update here and this is one of the reasons why I wanted to start Today's show a little bit early is to talk about the government shutdown now I was under the impression that things were trending appropriately I really was I thought we were like oh okay, we're gonna get close to September 30th they're gonna pass that little mini Bill to Kick the Can down to the end of October giving us one month where they get everything figured out. but some of the journalists at Punchbowl News, a newsletter that I definitely pay attention to, They have a completely different opinion on the situation. There's a chance that we actually get a government shutdown.

What's the chance? we avert one 80 that we're gonna get one I would say if not more. Uh, listen, the two sides are really good. way higher than I thought he has uh, effectively no ability to maneuver here. The big problem is uh.

conservatives Andrew Uh, don't want to pass a short-term Government funding bill to allow more time to get things done. They don't want to pass individual spending bills because they say the level is too high the spending level even though McCarthy has lowered it significantly and they don't want to wrap up all the individual ones together because they say that that's bad governing. so McCarthy has very little space to maneuver and remember. I mean this is a September 30th story government shuts down at the end of this month and then they have to find a way to fund the government for the year.

So I I am extremely pessimistic. There's some there's going to be some sort of deal that comes together and and to be honest with you, unlike other shutdowns we've seen um back in 13 and in 2018 2019 there is no uh, unifying thing that Republicans want that would get them out of a shutdown. So I I'm pretty bearish to be honest. I was going to ask, you know once you get it, we're now watching the UAW strike.

We're watching this. Sorry to pause this, but I do think it's this is quite the important announcement that I'm seeing coming through on chat. This is from a Mr Luke C I went to Texas Roadhouse last night for the first time and it was amazing. Everyone early morning inside Applause A little bit of a golf clap if you will I just I'm sorry to pause the show, but sometimes we have a piece of breaking news that I do believe it's worthwhile to pause the entire show for.

and this is exactly that. Luke Congratulations on taking care of your Texas Roadhouse virginity. It's a magical moment for many of us. The strike uh out in Hollywood I'm not saying this is a strike, but sort of.

Um, it's a negotiation. And which is to say, how are you going to actually put those two together? If in fact, there's a deal to be had? Well, the irony is that they're They're many of them want border money and Border policy and to secure the Border this is Joe Biden's one of his biggest weaknesses right now is what's going on at the border. If they actually wanted a deal on the border to get out of a shutdown, they could get one. Now there is a large, there's only a five seat majority in the House of Representatives and there's a large number of Republicans who want their way or the highway.

So to the extent that a lot of books could get a border deal, it's not going to be acceptable to them. But in previous times in in with different kinds of legislators, there would be a border deal available to them, but they can't get out of their own way to get that done in terms of what McCarthy has to offer in the moment. Question For you folks, in terms of you guys my audience, would you say that the Border quote-unquote issue is a top three issue to you personally? I'm just curious because obviously we hear a lot about the Border. But in terms of the things that really sway your decision on who to vote for, who not to vote for is the Border atop even three for you? Or is it not really there? and I'm not saying it's not important I'm just saying I'm asking if it's a top three issue for you.

Yes, Yes. Here in Texas Yes, Hell yeah. Hell yes Yes, Yes. Okay, interesting, no top 10 yet? Yeah.

and I'm not saying it's not important. I'm just asking if it's literally in your top three. Specifically, top two. The Border impacts me.

Zero percent day-to-day Yeah. Top five? Yes, no. Maybe top 20. doesn't hold a flame to a greased Pig And and and who will be to blame if in fact, something like this happens.

How do you see the politics of that? Yeah, So the big thing is that the Senate Republicans Senate Democrats and the White House all want the same thing. A pretty clean Government funding process with uh that adheres to the spending deal that uh speaker Kevin McCarthy cut with Joe Biden Back during the debt ceiling negotiations earlier this summer or early this summer. Um, everybody wants that Republicans are the only kind of leg of the stool that does not want that. So what McCarthy has privately told as lawmakers and he's going into a meeting at 9am this morning where we anticipate he'll say something similar is that shutting down the government gives Joe Biden the ability to look like an adult and so he knows McCarthy knows Republicans will get blamed.

He said that whether um, uh, they get blamed squarely or not I guess we'll have to see, but they will get blamed. That's the politics there. What does he have to offer? Not much. He doesn't have much to offer because hanging over his head Andrew was the idea that he that they could throw him out a speaker and that's if he takes a wrong step they can.

They get schedule a vote on a a snap referendum on McCarthy's leadership and once they do that, McCarthy's going to have a tough time holding on. I'm not saying he can't beat it. he probably can, but it's going to be embarrassing and it's just I had one Republican say to me yesterday, it's unbelievable House Republicans are the only branch of government that's constant constant existential arguments about its leadership and about its Station in Washington I Think that's important to keep in mind. how does this play in the larger presidential election? We just heard from president Trump over the weekend to Meet the Press where he said that he would shut down the government, something he said he would not do when he was the president.

Well, he did shut down the government 2018 and 2019 and he folded after 35 days and got nothing. So I I wouldn't if I were House Republicans I wouldn't be paying much I mean easy for me to say I wouldn't be paying much attention to Trump Here he was not a particularly effective president when it came to legislating and dealing with Congress It's something that that befuddles him by his entire four years in office. Uh, how does it play into the larger, the larger presidential race? Rhonda San This has been kind of trying to prop up House Republicans who are opposed to McCarthy and say that they should fight, but that's easy for them to say they're on the sidelines and and listen if Republicans shut down the government for an extended period of time, it is bad for them. Now how bad? I Don't know politically, but it is not a good look to have the government shut down for a month.

Uh, it plays into all of Joe Biden's talking points that Republicans should not be trusted at the wheel of government and they are I'm assuming that I'm assuming that those politicians elected politicians who are choosing to do this believe that their constituency is going to back them in the pursuit of, uh, you know, cutting government costs. Hang on before we get the response there. I Just wanted to add in one thing. um I don't necessarily agree with that statement of if the government shuts down, it looks bad for the Republicans uh maybe it does to someone who is actively following politics day in and day out, really staying on top of it.

But I think a lot of the times, whether good or bad, whatever is happening, the average person just looks to the president. So if the government shut down and I guess we could argue the nuances of why it got shut down, why it didn't get shut down yada yada. But I'm of the opinion that the average person who's rarely paying attention to political news I think the easy for success and or failure it's placed on to the president. So in this situation, if you hear the government shut down I think right away people are like oh yeah, no, the president like you just associate it in your mind with Biden and I'm not saying that's fair or accurate.

I'm just attempting to think about the person who doesn't have all day to watch the best show on the planet and get into the specifics of why something is or isn't happening. I'm thinking the average person who's just working their nine to five trying to take care of their kids, trying to do their own thing thing. They hear the government shut down and like, okay, I know the president's currently Joe Biden that just wanted to share that yeah, they will, they will. But and that's the problem with Congress right? Because you have the majority of House Republicans who represent deep red districts, but then the majority makers.

The people that Kevin McCarthy needs to get reelected are 18 Republicans who sit in Joe Biden districts and I can tell you that those districts are probably not going to support an elongated government shutdown because they sent a republican to Washington and they voted for Joe Biden And that's the real danger for House Republicans So just talking about the potential government shutdown. The most recent updates are: McCarthy The speaker, uh, he was basically saying yeah, no, it would be an embarrassment, he doesn't want it to get shut down. And then there is a new bill that was introduced yesterday to extend the deadline to the end of October instead of the end of September Disney Plans to speed up and expand investment in parks and cruises business. A little bit of breaking news: Trump Plans to give speech to Auto Workers in Detroit skipping second GOP debate.

So this might seem like a lifetime ago, but there was an original GOP debate that your boy this guy had the awesome opportunity privilege honor to do my show from the actual I guess outside of the Bucks Arena that's where it was. Um, so This time around the second GOP debate, it's going to be a much smaller, much more intimate, but similar to the first one. Trump The previous president of the United States will not be there. He skipped the first one and for that one, they ended up having a big interview with Tucker Carlson who I believe it was released like an hour into the actual debate.

and this time around, he's gonna go speak with the Auto Workers former president Donald Trump is planning to travel to Detroit to deliver a speech to current and former union members instead of attending next week's Republican primary debate. The former president's travel plans emerged just days after thousands of UAW members went on strike at three major plans after the Union in Detroit car makers failed to reach a deal. Hey, is it pandering? Potentially, but it's a smart move. It really like I I'm not necessarily saying it's good or bad, but you have to appreciate Trump's understanding of the plight of people like this is a smart smart.

It's a very smart move, so obviously it's probably gonna be streamed itself. There's probably going to be some sort of live commentary and it's just going to detract from the actual GOP debate. And at this point I get that you have to have other primary like candidates, but the differential between Trump and all the other Republican potential nominees hopefuls? it's far. The Delta is huge and just based on what I mean, we're halfway through September now I Just don't think there's a chance that that Delta could be made up I think the only thing that's really going on right now are people are vying for the VP spot and I think specifically.

that's what Vivek Ramaswamy is attempting to do. If you notice in the first debate his commentary before his commentary after it's very very pro-trump like he will only say positive things about Trump and I'm not saying necessarily you should like this or dislike this I'm just sharing my thoughts of what I believe is going on: I think the GOP debates are basically a running for VP and I think Rama Swami is like particularly focused on the fact that like I don't think he at all believes he's is going to be president I think he's trying to throw it in and say hey yeah no I'm going to be the young Tech dude the Young Rich Tech dude um I'll get you the younger vote like that's just what how I see things actually playing out. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong. Obviously time will tell.

Now to redirect our I guess focuses here are: focus on the actual market and trading today. I Want you to know about this Tuesday September 19th The Eurozone CPI came in a little less than expected. That's bullish as in inflation's coming down in Europe more than they anticipated. And then at 8 30, we got the building permits coming in a bit higher than expecting, which maybe represents a bit of a hot economy.

Uh, if you're looking at how it's reacting to this, here's 8 30. my cursor's on 830. You can see the S P 500 futures Market Is vomiting. Vomiting.

Vomiting. voting. vomiting. That is not good in the hood.

Let me update the highs and lows from the past two trading days: I Always find this to be actually pretty helpful just to know where things are or aren't. Um, we're seeing a lot of fake out breakdowns. We're seeing a lot of fake out breakouts. Uh, so I I Just like to know where all this stuff is at.

But as you can see, we're now battling it out below the lows of yesterday or technically 20 cents just above. But we're essentially at the lows from yesterday In terms of the overall: Market the queues are about 50 cents higher, but obviously we have about 20-ish minutes. A little less than 20 minutes until this all gets going. But anyway, here's what we're looking at at the toe.

My apologies. Um, you guys might be thinking why am I uh, you might have not heard it. but I just sneezed and I'd like to say sorry for that. But anyway, those are all the macro economic reports today.

Tomorrow's the big day 2 p.m We will be doing a specialty stream the Fomc decision and I think we get the set, the summary of economic projections coming out at 2 P.m tomorrow, and then Jerome Powell speaking at 2 30. So today, tomorrow, looking for volatility to really start to pick up global economy poised to slow as rate hikes bite. Oecd says the world economy is set for slowdown as interest rate increases way on activity in China's pandemic rebound disappoints, growth will ease to 2.7 percent in 2024 after an already subpar expansion of three percent this year according to the latest Oecd forecast. with exception of 2020 when Rhone is struck, that would Mark the weakest annual expansion since the global Financial crisis.

So kind of crazy. While high inflation continues to unwind, the world economy remains in a difficult place. We're confronting the double challenges of inflation and low growth. So right here: I Get that the market is relatively High relatively close to its all-time high.

but I don't think we're necessarily out of the wood yet I Just want to, uh, make it clear that I don't think we're in a period of like, hey, just buy anything and hope that it goes up I I Just don't think we're there yet and neither does the bond. King Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach warns of demons on the horizon for stocks and predicts a dollar disaster and recession next year. Uh, I Have to admit, that's a cool way to say it. Demon's on the horizon.

We got some demons on the horizon. Jeffrey Gunlock issued a slew of warnings about the stock market the US dollar in upcoming recession. During the Future Proof Conference last week. the S P and NASDAQ have surged 16 and 31 respectively this year as investors pricing the potential boost to companies from Ai and future cuts to interest rates.

However, they're overlooking demons on the horizon. The billionaire CEO of Double Line Capital highlighted signs of faltering U.S economy as a key concern. He pointed to a recent wave of corporate layoffs and consumers feeling the squeeze from a record amount of credit card debt as red flags. Uh, also on top of that, I'll be covering this in a second.

but I believe that the U.S debt and we're now officially 33 trillion. So congrats to us for breaking records. That's that's sick. He also noted that the chilling effect of higher mortgage rates on the housing market and the challenge for small businesses of having to refinance their debts as much higher interest rates, the economy is definitely weakening I look for one next year and I think that the indicators are getting really convincing in that regard.

So this guy Jeffrey he's he does all the media tours. He is somewhat well respected, so just want to call this out and share my own thoughts that I don't think we're out of the wood yet I don't think it's time to be like bullish with no regard because I think the market could still take a serious hit, not calling for an absolute like blow up catastrophe Great Depression But I Do think we could go double digit pullback from that recent high in July after the debt ceiling was passed CBO Estimates showed: U.S Federal debt hitting 50 trillion by 2030. Hell yeah brother. Today we hit 33 trillion and have been adding an average of one trillion per month since the debt ceiling crisis reading one trillion a month? What? Under the new build, the debt sailing is effectively uncapped until January 2025.

At the current Pace we would see 50 trillion in us that within a couple of years all the FED is calling for a soft landing and no recession. What happens to the U.S Debt If a recession hits, not a good situation, not a good situation. Federal debt held by the public. So we have the Civil War World War One Great Depression World War II Really Coming into the 70s looking solid spiked, a little bit came down and then after the financial crisis it spiked.

They tried to figure it out a little bit right here and then nothing really happened and we've just been ripping ever since. Uh, truly crazy. Truly truly crazy. This is not a good thing to be experiencing, but hey this is where we are at.

Fed Face was familiar foe as oil Prices for a growth and inflation. The FED is confronting a familiar Nemesis as it tries to Pilot the economy into a rarely seen soft Landing Rising Oil prices. But don't you worry Saudi Energy Minister says oil supply cuts are not about jacking up prices as rent hovers at 95 a barrel just for the point of posterity. Let's look at oil right now.

Crude Oil. Uh, on the Futures Market at 92.30 as I've been calling out for a while, I'm looking for the test of the high 93s 93 and some change. it's been ripping. I've been playing it myself.

not directly through oil but or through the Futures market for oil. I've been playing it through Oxy. Uh, basically. I'm just teaming up with Warren Buffett on that one.

I've been in it for a bit over a year. Obviously it's been range bound, but it looks like we might be knocking on the door of a breakout pretty soon. So I think it's going higher. Not necessarily good for the world, but I just had a thesis that oil will go higher and right now when you're seeing Supply constrained demands stay the same.

In some cases, increase will. obviously price has to go up. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister said in Moscow's decision to extend crude oil supply Cuts It's not about quote unquote, jacking up prices. We can reduce more or we can increase.

That has been a subject that we want to make sure the messaging is clear and it's not about again this jacking up of prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will apply respective voluntarily declines of 1 million barrels per day of production and 300 000 barrels per day of exports until the end of the year. So once again, when Supply is constrained, demand is constant or goes up, price goes up. and that's not the only type of oil that we're seeing.

A giant increase in olive oil prices surged over a hundred percent to record highs, sparking cooking oil thefts I Really didn't know how to include this particular segment in the show, so I just figured hey, they both have the word oil in it. Might as well put them together. Olive Oil Prices: Spike to Fresh records as severe droughts and major producing continue to crimp supplies, driving desperate people to resort to stealing it. Global Prices of olive oil have surged to 8 900 per ton in September Driven by extremely dry weather in the Mediterranean some 50 000 liters of extra virgin olive oil was reportedly stolen from one of Spain's oil.

Mills in late August That's more than 450 thousand dollars worth of olive oil. So apparently there's some sort of olive oil Bandit on the loose and that's what we're dealing with. So a little crazy Today there's a new IPO Instacart is set to make its stock market debut in an IPO that prices shares at 30 similar to arm. I'm expecting this to come in higher than what.

basically the big wigs are allowed to come in at. So this should be trading today. Obviously last week we got arm. Um, I'm nothing bad to say about Arm or Instacart, but also particularly, nothing good to say at this moment in time.

I'm just telling you that yes, it's volatile if you're looking for that kind of thing. I Wish you the best of luck. Personally, I'm not trading it just because I've been burned on too many IPOs in the past. But it does seem as if the IPO season is heating up.

We had Arm. we're about to have instacart. Uh, Birkenstock is going to make theirs. and actually there's some rumors of even more.

IPOs So the IPO season definitely underway. Elon Musk says Twitter Now X is moving to monthly subscription fees and has 550 million users must set. X is moving to having a small monthly payment for use of the X system and said that the social network has now 550 million monthly active users. Musk also defended himself against criticism that he and his social network spread hate speech and anti-Semitism after he threatened to sue the Anti-definition League and made disparaging remarks about George Soros.

So obviously we've been covering what's going on with the ADL and it just seems to be essentially trumped up accusations and charges. But more importantly, which I believe is new is this concept of small monthly payments for the use of X AKA Twitter and my question to all of you is are you gonna keep using Twitter slash X if you have to pay a monthly fee I'm of the opinion that a lot of people like Twitter X because it's free, They go on. They get their news, they understand the thoughts and opinions of people that they probably wouldn't commonly be able to hear from. But a big aspect of that is why not do it if it's free? But now if to use it, it's a small monthly fee I Think that's going to make a lot of people mad.

but once again, that's just my opinion. So I would love to get your thoughts on it. and my question is exactly this: if Twitter slash X if there is a monthly fee to use the service, will you be staying on X or are you going to say nope I'm gonna go elsewhere. obviously.

let me know. Nope. Hell no. Give up the five cents, never use Twitter again I won't pay for it.

Hell no. I Just deleted X Imagine paying for free speech pull no big no buy x no. maybe if it's less than three dollars. Nope.

out. well we're gonna see it might be a ploy just to get Twitter in media again because every time he does it, the monthly active users Spike So I'm kind of curious to know if this is just a big brain psychology play from musk of say this Wild Thing and then you're gonna get a bunch of free media attention. A bunch of free marketing that causes more users to come in. so I Don't know if he actually believes this, but obviously time will tell.

UAW Warns it will expand strikes if no serious progress is made by. Friday Union Press for progress and talks with GM Ford Stalantis walk out on three planes, cost companies 3.2 000 Vehicles a day. That's a lot of dinero me Amigo United Auto Workers Union says it will expand its strike at the big three automakers at noon this. Friday If serious progress is not made on the negotiations, Bloomberg's Oliver crook joins us now he's been following the story Ali Bring us the latest here.

has any progress actually been made? Critty? Not really. So we're really deadlocked at that 20 figure that Stalantis Ford and GM put forward to the United Auto Workers Union and that was a no-go We got that yesterday in very plain terms and what the President is now saying: Sean Fain That the ball is in their court and they need to come up with something better and they need to do it basically before. Friday Because as you mentioned, they're going to expand that strike potentially at noon on. Friday if they don't get something substantially, uh, better and remember, less than 10 percent of this, Union is currently on strike.

That means that you have 150 000 workers that potentially could step out and That would basically bring the big three to their knees and completely paralyze operations in North America. It's so striking to me how quickly this is spreading, because really, this has been I think the third or fourth type of labor story we saw in the U.S Hollywood, Pilots Teamsters and now the UAW. Now this is turning into an international story. Absolutely, just over the river from Detroit into Canada Ford has three facilities.

We've got an assembly plant and two engine factories. and the workers there are currently right now in negotiations with Ford. their contracts expired at midnight. They have extended that window of 24 hours for those negotiations, saying that they've gotten a substantive offer from Ford and so they are considering it now.

So maybe there's some progress being made there. But it's all about the same themes, right? It's about wages, it's about pensions, and it's about reassurances around the EV transition, which is really worrying workers, but companies alike. And if they do go on strike, that could impact the V8 engines that go into the Ford F-150s and into the Mustangs. Well, talk to us about the margins of that, because in theory, it feels like if you start to see a lot of those cars that you just laid out, hit less Supply more demand equals higher prices.

Talk to us about the margins for some of these car makers. Where does the pressure come from? Yeah, well, the unions are referencing the profitability of these car companies which have been hired because they've been so much pent-up demand and so much that has had to get work through. But for these Legacy automakers, there are a lot of issues ahead. And when you look at the actual cost of labor per hour on average for the big three versus some others, it's pretty interesting.

It's about 66 dollars an hour for the big three. If you look at Tesla It does not use union labor. on average. that's about 45 dollars.

If they were to meet all of the demands, the initial demands of the Union, that number would go to a hundred and thirty six dollars. So really, in the EV transition, competitiveness is right at the center of the conversation and not just for the U.S Automakers For Mercedes We spoke to the CEO Ola Calenius a little bit earlier. We have always kept lockstep with what's going on in the economy to make sure that we have attractive jobs. Dude, what a sick name.

We we watch that and we make adjustments as as we go along well at the same time we do things better. Or can we do uh, the smarter way. Get leaner because the cost competition is not going to go anywhere. And so there you have Mercedes-Benz A luxury car company with big margins talking about getting leaner.

So this is front and center for every automaker around the planet. All right. Sorry that halfway through I was uh laughing I wasn't in any way laughing at this I was laughing at DM So over the weekend I was absolutely crushing it on an extra long stair stepper session. so I said um on Sunday I said go Birds I know they already won and it was me looking like I just crushed 150 floats on the stair stepper because I did So someone felt the need to respond to that and they DM me Grifter This is all going down in real time I go to the profile I'm a petty person I have too much time on my hands.

so I realize that this person happens to be a father I could see it on the profile. they're there with a bunch of their kids. So I say um, well it's just my story. go Birds I know they already won and he responded Grifter So I responded with shitty father and this guy is now absolutely popping off in my DMs I just you say Grifter I said shitty father he said excuse me you have any evidence of that scumbag I have a few years of evidence of your YouTube channel of you grifting people.

don't ever comment on my Parenthood again you piece of dirt and then I responded you're right I'll change my comment, you're an extremely shitty father I Feel bad for your kids dude. This guy is good. He's gonna lose his mind as soon as as soon as he responds. I'll let you guys know and then I'll let you guys come up with my response to this: I mean the fact that people go out on their way to DM Me: that shit shit.

You're right. you're extremely shitty. fuck. he's punching air right now.

That's that's right. Sorry. All right, the Big: We're not in earnings season, but I want you to know about FedEx Commonly considered to be a barometer for the overall market reports after the market closes tomorrow. don't forget to sign up for the newsletter.

it's free Macquares.locals.com I Give you my breakdown of what happened in the previous week when I'm looking for the upcoming week, all the major macroeconomic events, all the major earnings I Think you care about and then today we're going to talk about obviously: seasonality. slightly leaning bearish. Not the most bearish day, but the seasonality slightly favoring the Bears of the day I Give you the seasonality for every day of the week I Give you an update on the option strategy. Speaking of which, there was one options ideal yesterday.

that one hit. So so far on the week, one for one and then the charts of Interest the Spy the cues Microsoft Nvidia and Carvana are things that I'm particularly paying attention to. Five things to know before the stock Market: Bell goes dingy ding ding ding feeling flat. Strike season spending less Uh, shiny new Apple Features: There's a new update instacart pricing instacart coming out today should be trading under the symbol C-a-r-t I Have some other stories to go over in a little bit, but really I do want to get ready for Market open and I have have exactly exactly one minute I Need you guys to tell me, are you bullish or bearish? Not on the day but for Market Open I Need everyone very very quickly to tell me is the first minute bar gonna be red or is it gonna be green The very first minute bar of the day folks, you now have less than 60 seconds to tell me you have less Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Go Red Bullish Bearish Bullish Red Bullish green I Expect to drop today.

Pop Green green. there's oh. you guys are mixed. You guys are mixed.

You guys are mixed. What do I do? What do I do? All right. All right. All right.

All right. All right. we're gonna do it. We're gonna do a market open trade and just see how it goes.

Uh uh. All right. Order filled Target filled. Oh well, that one already hit before the market opened.

We might as well do it again. All right. let's see. let's see if we can make it work today.

Target Filled. Boom Wait the market. We already hit it. Look at that.

We already locked in 225 and the Market's just getting going today. Um, the account is at 52 864 as in I'm a hundred and thirty six dollars away. A hundred and thirty six dollars away until I successfully passed this challenge. One more quality change, just one one more trade is what separates your boy from successfully being a funded prop.

Trader Um, just a fun challenge to see if I could do it. I Honestly, I did find the test a little difficult to pass, but well, I'm saying that as if I pass it, but in reality I still need to make one more quality trade. Uh, so very quickly. On that note, the casino is open.

Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun folks if you're at all interested in this. if you're interested in this whatsoever, it is pinned to the top of chat it is in the description of the video. You can find the affiliate link.

They are the sponsor of today's stream. If you want to become a funded Futures Trader check out TOP Step They are a prop account. Um I Like to think of it as the nice in between I Think it's a very solid in between of a paper account where you're risking nothing or your own fully funded account with your money where you're risking all your own money. This is the nice in between.

This is the way it works is if you can pass their challenge if you can pass what they refer to as their combine well, they'll fund you to trade and I found it. I mean I haven't passed it yet I'm one trade away from passing it, but you can check it all out here. it is pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video right here.

uh I mean all the information is here. Just check it out. click on that link and I'm attempting to get funded with a 50 000 trading account. Like I said I'm one trade away and then I should be funded.

So we're gonna see if I can like lock in that one more extra tray trade today. Hopefully I could do it. Live with all of you I'm excited to see how it plays out it. I've I've I mean I passed the test on Apex but I never did the funded trading.

um I just heard that people said they liked Tops Up before I'm not an expert prop Trader by any means, this is just the second of like I guess company I've ever used before. This is the second month of doing it. so if you want to do this where you're risking someone else's money, if you can pass the test pin to the top of chat in the description of the video and on that note, how are we looking? How are we looking? How are we looking? How are we looking? Oh I'm so excited for that guy to respond. This is the type of stuff that really keeps me going in my content career.

It's just dumb fucking people reaching out to me when they don't know what they're talking about. um I'll let you know I'll let you know I'll let you know he's probably in here right now. are you? I don't want to say his name because I'm not really interested in like doxing people. but I'm very curious if he's in here.

Oh he did. Oh wait now I feel shitty. Yeah he I don't he's probably lying. but um, whatever.

that was enough negativity. I read his message and he is now saying that his kids are sick or something. so I don't know if it's true if it is true. obviously I don't want that to for anyone to experience it even if I think you're a piece of shit person I don't think your kids should be impacted.

He could be lying to try to make a point or he could be telling the truth and the fact that I don't know means I'm just gonna stop engaging. you know, doesn't really like he. My gut is that he's a liar my like my gut like I'm 98 99 sure that he's lying to me. Uh, but on that one percent off chance that like the kid's sick I don't I mean it's the kid I have no issue with the kid I just think the father's a piece of shit.

Um so just because of out of respect for the kid and the one percent off chance I'm not gonna respond I'm not gonna respawn. It's just not worth time or energy. Instead, we're going to see if we can properly get this account funded today. One trade away.

How freaking exciting is that? Where are we at? We are at 52 864. So I need 136 more dollars? That's the goal. A hundred and Easy Peasy Lemon squeezies. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezies.

Um, we can almost be there. We we could be there. We could potentially pull this off. Uh, I Need you guys when you guys think there's a good opportunity to go long and or short either direction on the overall.

Market or the NASDAQ Just scream it out: you can't insult someone as the father that's below the belt. Uh, no, I can and I I do I Don't think I don't have any moral qualms with someone sliding into my DMs and throwing random accusations at me when I can't just throw random accusations at them. If anything, it's just showing how ridiculous it is at all to go into someone's DMS and say something when you don't know that person. he doesn't know me I don't know him.

and if they're gonna say random shit against me I could say random shit against them. It's the point that there's too many people in this world that are comfortable sitting behind their keyboard and saying things that they wouldn't say to your face. That's the whole point of it. Um, but if you're gonna DM me dumb shit and then I go onto your account and you're just like oh I'm such a good father.

Well I could say whatever random shit I want um, as a father, you would never lie about something like that. So I was thinking about that too. and then also that's why I chose to not engage anymore. uh I don't necessarily disagree with you Miguel because even if there's like some sort of other chance that like he is telling the truth um I obviously like I said I have no qualms with the kid I don't want a kid to be sick at all.

Um, but that's why I stopped. Obviously there's a line there I have no issue saying shit about him but the kids I have nothing I have no issues with the kids. so I'm not going to say anything about a kid. What's the play of the day? By the way, my father was abusive Jesus Is that how you came up here with your name Mr cheek Clapper Oh my god dude.

um um I think Matt just not understanding that kids are something you kind of don't play with because people reaction can be very very vicious about their kids. But if you had one, you would probably understand. No I understand this and that's once again why I didn't say anything about the kids I Just said he's a shitty father once again about him I'm not going to say anything about someone's kids. It's their kids.

What do you guys think I am a monster. Why would I ever say anything about anyone's kids I'm just gonna literally say something about the person who came into my DMs I Would never, ever ever say anything about anyone's kids once again. I I Do think the person is kind of lying? Um, which is really shitty, but on the off chance that that one percent chance that he's actually t