Foreign foreign Thank you Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. Welcome back to the Mac Coors The live show typically in the morning, but here we are at an awkward 1 51 p.m Et. Why are we here? Why are we all gathering on the Internet at this exact moment in the time? Well, the answer for you is the F O M C Meeting results. Jerome Powell's speech and the insanity in the market.

So it's gonna be a fun one. In a mere eight minutes, we get the results, they will be made public. The Fomc I guess Decision: It started yesterday, the meeting did. It's continuing today.

it's already over. The results are coming out in nine minutes. As of now, There's an in excess of 95 probability that there's no rate change whatsoever, not an increase, not a cut, or keeping it exactly where we're at. Which for those of you who care is five percent.

That's the expectation. I Wholeheartedly believe that's gonna be exactly what happens. What's going to move the market either to the upside or to the downside is some of the other commentary within the note or maybe within the SCP the summary of economic projections that also comes out at two or more. So what? Jerome Powell The Chairman of the FED says at 2 30 obviously I'm going to be streaming the entire event because I Want to be here and have a little bit of fun with all of you.

The market went up today, the market went down today, and now we're just waiting. The market has actually done a really good job of doing absolutely squat as I'm saying this to you. Live. But let's get going.

Let's get going. Let's get going. Let's get going. I Guess before I show you all this in craziness.

all the fun, all the fun in the sun I Want to know from all of you what's your votes? I Don't want to let too much information out I Want you guys to call I Want to see how good you guys are I Want to see how good your gut feeling is, how good your understanding of macro economics are I Would love for you to post your vote in chat. Right now, you think we're gonna go rippity skippity doo-dop Do you think we're gonna go plummeting down? Or do you think that we are going to just do nothing? Just chop chop chop Chop Chop chop Crash Time Fallout Boy Calls on everything we're going up dead Red Pump Red Green You guys are split 50 50. you guys are really split 50 50. Red Green You guys are not making up your mind.

You are not making up your rip today. Dump tomorrow down sell the news Red Flat. Call on my puts. It's going to be an interesting one.

Do you guys want me to do a poll? We'll do a poll I'll throw them I'll throw one up right now. Start a poll. Um F-o-m-c Market Reaction Uh bullish bearish. All right.

Ask your community. Vote away. Vote away Vote away while you are posting your votes. Uh I Want to let you know, become a goonie? Sign up.

It's been to the top of Chat. probably this way. Maybe I think it's right over here? Is it over here? I think it's like roughly like if I could touch it. Just touch it.

like right about there. Like or maybe it's like over here I don't know where you have me on the screen necessarily. but sign up for the Goonie Community Matt Cores.locals.com Pin to the top of Chat in the description of the video. I Am my own sponsor of this stream.

There's a free version or a 10 a month version. In that 10 a month version, you get all this seasonality. You get my trades, You get other people's trades, You get a community of Traders It's not a buy or sell signal stuff because that stuff is honestly complete. It's just a community of people.

So I put some data analytics in there and then from there it's just a form where we can talk and eventually I'm gonna get it hooked up with Discord So from there you'll be able to access Discord but that is currently not live just so you know. But when it is live, the price is going from 10 to 30 months just so everyone knows. Um, so if you want to get grandfathered into a cheaper price, you'll be able to see what's going on Alfredo Watch you until Kevin comes on. Well, that's hurtful.

We're gonna have a lot more fun in here. I'm not gonna say we know more than Kevin because we probably don't. but like, if you're looking for a good time, dude, that's borderline offensive. Alfredo.

What the dude is it because he's skinnier than me? Is it because you would rather, uh, a physically fit streamer I Get that Honestly, if your reason is because I'm a walking bag of mayo and he's actually like pretty fit I get that. Honestly, if it's any other reason, I'm gonna be offended. if you're like I have more fun over there, that would be offensive. but if it's because like, you just don't want to be watching a a fatty I Get that it's because he has a jet.

Do you think a jet could even move my body? Obviously there's weight limits to Jet so this still feels like a fat thing and honestly I don't blame you I think you're giving me some tough love and you just want me to be the most healthy and the best be me. I can be uh so I don't blame you wanna I I Get it? I I Get what you're saying and if anything, before you go I want to apologize I would like to say sorry to you for being a fat. It is offensive to your visual senses that you have to put up with me being so pasty and white and jiggly. So before you go, please accept my sincerest apologies.

and I don't know if you want me to venmo you or something like I could send you some money because like I don't like, maybe you have to go to an eye doctor or something. I'm not sure there might be emotional distress, you might have to see a therapist, it might just generically make you angry and you make more poor decisions throughout the day. I Get it, This is my fault. It's not your fault.

You deserve an apology I hope you accept my heartfelt apology and I I'm gonna try to be better I can't even promise anything because like I'm a loser and like, would you trust my word anyway? But seriously man, I I hope it's I Get it. If I were you I wouldn't even be here I'd be like I'm not listening to that fatty no matter what that fatty says like I'm just not going to click on the video. So the fact that you've even taken this much of a chance I mean I would just like to say thank you uh and Marco I do not accept your apology. well Marco I don't know.

I'm just gonna try to be better one of these days. You guys are gonna be so sorry. You're gonna be so freaking sorry when I just get ripped to prove a point against all of you I'm not getting ripped to be healthier or anything like that. Not for physical health, not for mental health.

It's literally to prove you wrong. Marco And Alfredo, you're going down to my my little book here and one of these days you're going to learn a lesson. You're going to learn a lesson. But yeah, no.

have fun at the skinny fit person stream. It's not gonna make me cry in the shower for any reason whatsoever. Um, you're just. you're not fat.

You're just big bone. No, it's fat I accept it how it is, but it is what it is. All right. Let me switch this over so you guys can see what is up.

Market Popped it dropped and we basically just came right back down to where we opened. As in a classic Whips All Day. If only someone this morning told you that it was gonna be a Whips All day. If only if only some cake or pie Do Love both.

Massive fan of both! Um I I don't know if there's a cake I don't like or if there's a pie I don't like I like I Want cake pie? I Want a mix? Why not both? man. I'm not gonna pick I'm not gonna pick between those two. All right. So on an important note, just because we are running out of time, we have about a minute 20 left.

Uh at 2PM right here. you're gonna see some more information pop up like right in this. June You see how it's like blank? Well, we're going to get projection materials which is the SCP the summary of economic projection and we're gonna make a B line and look at the Dot Plot to see what the predictions are for the in ensuing quarters months, years. Um, so the FED members the voting members all.

they all get one little dot to vote and the question is are they seeing five to five? Are they saying at 5.12 Are they seeing? Uh. basically we always have these 25-bit tranches and we want to know where most of them are voting. So if I were to bring up this previous one right here, uh I think I could just do it this way right? it's gonna come up. No, it's better with the PDF It's a little bit more readable that way.

So this is the last one. I Don't want you to think it's this one, but blah blah blah there's this Dot Plot Let me zoom in so you guys don't have to strain your eyes anymore. But anyway, this is March 22nd. You can kind of see where they're at.

A lot of people voting right here between 5 and 5.25 We're expecting this to increase um for the this next tranche to the the more popular one, but we will find out in due time. Specific hang on. Let me turn this on. We're getting going.

We're getting going. Can they get rid of the range at some point? Can we just go back to one single number? Uh, let's get to see Policeman. with the FED decision Steve the Federal Reserve pausing but raising the median forecast of rate of the funds rate to 5.6 indicating a very Focus committee Outlook and strong support for at least two more I Think this comes under the definition of a hawkish pause Maybe a very Hawkins pause. Fomc statement saying it's holding the target rate steady, allowing it to assess additional information including the cumulative effects of tightening and lags of monetary policy I Want to go through in detail: economic projection We're forecasting the rate.

Here's the previous one: Look at this one. half of the community right there right above five. Look at it now. but there's more because two are supporting three hours.

basically saying we're getting than it previously did for cashing a 3.9 core rate versus three points. Yeah, in the prior Uh, economic rejected in March and less unemployment 100.1 versus 4.5 And whoever voted red, they did. uh. economic growth this year.

Not tremendous, but one percent versus 0.4 percent of the economy continues to experience still haven't taken out yesterday. it has been low and inflation elevated. They continue to say tighter credit conditions are seen Weighing on the economy hiring on inflation, but they don't act as if they will. Decision was unanimous Guys: I Just said in terms of a hawkish pause.

This is for sure that with at least two more rate hikes forecast by the majority of the committee and some men, three somewhat trampoline. Also, one other thing you want to look at is if you look at at the real rate forecast the one that was the uh, the nominal funds rate minus the who made money, who made someone had to make money. Congratulations like you just didn't know which way. We don't even know where to begin.

look through this. The market reaction obviously is initially sharply lower. Usually the Market's a little slower to reacted to and saves this for later in the session. But right now, 200 points and the 10-year yield jumping to 384.

Let's bring in Bob Basani Rick Santelli along with the rest of our friends. You know my thoughts are uh considering presented what the Federal Reserve is doing now, but what they intend to do of course a it makes the data dependent explode Diego Ricky The markets Nazi interest rates rise in the Dow fall. What Steve said sounded hawkish times 10. But to me, if you listen to the Fed and you looked at the last CPI number, you're basically looking at old news.

In my opinion, let's just start with number One Seasonal adjustments. Okay, one of the big issues that pushed CPI into hotter territory. We're used car prices first of all, prices and I could continue to say seasonal adjustments aren't what they are. If we take out to be a B 434 34.63 to come through, look for The Gap filter July 12th and you see the June CPI report.

you're gonna I have an interactive broker's account prices. So I think there are a lot of reasons to be nervous if you look at more stale data and you assume that these numbers are going to perpetuate themselves. But I think the reason equities were so strong yesterday is some of the Traders have looked through them. look towards the next seven years is different than the past.

All right, let's go to Bob Pizzani uh for a quick update on where the stock market stands. Right now, it looked like it started to nosedive immediately. Well, yes, about 25 points in the S P That is not a huge move. So remember last time we had a dovish hike.

At this time we get a hawkish pause I'm not sure this necessarily changes supporting two more raid hikes I think that's a lot more hawkish uh than Equity Traders anticipated. But I'm not sure it dramatically changes the situation. What we've seen here, uh, is the S P right now is trading at nearly 19 times forward. Earnings that is not only not a recessionary multiple, that is an expansionary multiple.

and 25 or 30 points on the S P isn't going to appreciably change that. The the problem right now and maybe can't get into place right now is the S P and the markets are really pushing the limits of the soft Landing story. We've moved up five percent just this month because the Jobs report is so strong, the numbers are so strong and the belief is the Fed is near done. I'm not sure one or two more points uh or 50 more basis points really makes a difference.

So here's the hope for people wanting the market to move forward. At this point, the volumes have been terrible recently A Lot of people still don't believe this soft Landing story and all of those people who bought treasuries one-year treasuries three months ago at four and a half percent. the S P is up 13 since that happened in the middle of March. And the question is regardless of whether we get a 25 Point drop in the S P right now, which we just got.

Whether or not those people are going to get any kind of Fomo and believe that the economy is going to remain relatively strong, there's your hope for the market to move up right now. Incredible Uh reactions here Dows Down 334 points Greg Do you think this is them? Uh, putting the knife in the soft Landing story? Uh, not really. I Was just actually looking over the numbers here and actually if you take the numbers at face value, they almost sort of strengthen the soft Landing story. They've got GDP growth up more.

Uh, this year like I think around one percent versus 0.4 partially tiny little trims to it next year and year after that. I mean unemployment rate lower prices? The weird thing is, but they have that against a World's higher inflation I Got 60 Puts in some sense they're saying that soft Landing Given that inflation is a higher uh problem at the start of this process, we need to get the short rate higher to make sure that happens. I Gotta say, there aren't a lot of Precedence for pulling this one off I Mean you know I Hope So the market clearly hopes, so this is a balancing act. they got ahead of them Julie How do you remember and we're in my field I Think that 161.

messaging than they are about their real Financial Impact I Think what's actually more meaningful going forward is what happens happens with the FED balance sheet and quantitative tightening because that is actually going to have the most impact on what's happening in Bank Reserves and that in turn is going to impact their willingness to lend to Consumers and businesses. So I Think that's really important and what this is about These railings about future races. No, we're not going to be cutting rates this year. You need to push that back.

We're pushing back recession risk too, but you need to push back your expectations for any kind of rate. Cuts Michael How about you? I mean Steve Pointed out that the decision itself was was unanimous, but the plotting of future rate increases was anything but unanimous. Yeah, it's clear it seems to be a A Schism between those who don't give the economy needs them anymore to the inflation. Target Kind of what Rick was talking about inflation.

There are measures of inflation which are falling quite significantly over the last couple of months and should continue to fall. Headline inflation going to have a three-handle next month after after the next inflation report. However, the FED has to make sure that the market doesn't or the economy and Market participants don't get complacent that all is well and done. It's just going to be this super soft landing and that inflation is going to come down to their target without much trouble.

and it is a A A A soft Landing that things are better than expected. As I mentioned before the the release that they're revising up all the positive things about the economy except for inflation. but they're dealing with that saying look, if inflation does not come down, we're not ranking rates today, but inflation does not start coming down As we project we will hike rates some more and that also means that we're not cutting rates as much next year. Steve I'm just going to bring you back in here if you can give us some more context.

I Just want to make the observation that this is a bit odd that everything in the report that Greg's describing GDP goes up, the unemployment rate goes down, inflation goes up, and they're pausing. and yet at the same time they're telling us they're going to a 5.6 terminal rate. That seems like totally bizarre messaging to me once again. like I said about Tablet Power, you're confused Kelly because you're paying attention.

That's exactly what's going on. Um, and what I want to do now is I want to do a visual demonstration of the precise way that Rick just described how Fed is making policy. They are driving looking like this. they're looking in the back, but they're driving forward.

That's exactly what Rick is describing I Was hopeful that this Fed was going to take a flyer on making policy on the forecast of inflation coming down and instead I kind of. I very much agree with Rick that it's ignoring certain indicators that suggest inflation is about to fall and I have to come to a a a bad conclusion here. which is that it gives me the sense the FED is not going to stop until they break something and I thought they had a chance today. Well, no, no, I don't think that.

I don't think that's what our biggest bank failures in history have happened since March and they consider this not to be breaking it I Agree, we can debate the degree of breakage out there, but I would just say that that when I say break something I mean the economy I mean really to plunge it into recession. And it seems to me that there's a decent contingent, a hefty contingent of the committee right here that does not want to stop until they really break the back of economic growth here. And I think that's their outlook here. and that's why they're They're putting 50 more basis points on an economy that seems like it may not need it at this point.

Rick Go ahead and jump in. I saw you shaking your head vigorously hawkish, you know. I completely agree with Steve's assessment. There they are driving forward looking in the rear view mirror.

Not only that, the brakes disconnected the the pedals to the metal on rate increases. I Think this move and the hawkishness is purely for messaging. They pause. The pause is the issue we should not ignore.

Why would they pause? Kelly's right, considering everything. why would they pause? Because they want to be done? They just can't share that with the rest of us. yet. that's my opinion.

All right. Let's get Greg You'd like to jump in Yeah. Kelly I think I think Kelly Raised exactly the right question given all the data says they should go for it further. Why pause? Let me just read from the statement.

Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the committee to assess additional information and its implications from monetary policy. In other words, we want to see more information. We want to see if that five percentage point of cumulative tightening has the effects that we expect to see. I Think that being honest, they haven't seen those effects I Think if you want to be as generous as possible to the case, the thing they worry about most is that the trouble that they had with the banking system a few months ago is not over.

We reported this week that they've got their eyes on 30 potentially problem. Banks We don't? You know, And you know we all three of us have been through these crises before, right? You think it's over, It's not over. And I think there's a large feeling among every member of the committee that they really don't want to like. tighten into an incipient financial crisis.

Give themselves a little bit more time to make sure that's not right. Greg I'm starting to interrupt, but the effect of this is to tighten Financial Conditions, right? So it's not like they get away with just forecasting two rate hikes Scot-free right? They have an effect when they forecast these two. uh, rate hikes. And they do that for a reason.

So I I Just don't think it's uh, what do you want to call it a sterile forecast? It's one that has meaning and effect on the economy. Yes, one last thing though, but the difference between promising two rate hikes and delivering two rate hikes is that with the first, you get a little bit of optionality. so that at the crisis that you don't think is going to happen, but you're afraid it's going to happen does happen, you can pull back. Julia Rick Agreed with you there that this is a lot about messaging more than about monetary policy.

Yeah. I I Have to agree. I Think it's It's important to keep in mind that you know a lot of this is how you are thinking about inflation, right? You can say we've cut inflation in half, but you can also say historically getting from five to two percent is incredibly difficult. and I think that's what they have in mind.

They're terrified to say mission accomplished and see all the mistakes that were made in the 1970s. I Think that's their primary concern, right? Because credibility has been an issue for these guys. So I think I'm willing to say trust them when they say they're going to be higher for longer. This is like the credibility that we've assigned to them is like 19.99 High School Julie Like don't believe her but do believe them, they're going to stay up here for a while or Michael Kushman I'll paraphrase our Mike Santoli who's saying kind of to Greg's point is the hold The most important thing here.

Yes, they're hawkish and all the messaging, but was that just the cost of getting a unanimous decision on the pause that they ultimately or the the hold that they've ultimately delivered. I Think that's true. They wanted to square the circle and get everyone on board to a policy policy projection going forward. and this satisfies everyone.

People who didn't want to hike rates right now. they didn't get a rate hike. But for the Hawks they Pro they didn't promise, but they forecast it. They will deliver right hikes if we get down.

Beautiful. And what's important is that the economy has not. Um, it's difficult to um for the FED to Fork to use their forecasts for inflation to run policy because they tried that for 15 years or so after the global financial crisis, forecasting higher inflation, forecasting higher inflation and never never showed up something. they gave up on forecasting and this has been a theme thing for a while.

Now that they're not going to stop until see the white of the eyes of disinflation, they're going to when inflation's down where it's supposed to be. Then we stop Papazzani. Final word to you: Well, just look here, what the market is doing Okay, the S P 500 is down a little more than 30 points since they made the announcement. That's not nothing but statistically, it's not much.

given we've moved 500 points since the middle of March and the banking crisis, they made a point. the economy strong job gains robust. In recent months. they repeated that strong language they had before they raised their GDP forecast The question is, can the markets can the stock market withstand another 50 basis points which admittedly is a surprise for everybody down here.

The market is saying yes right now. I Don't consider 30 Pace 30 point drop in the S P to be terribly significant, at least for the moment. Let's see what happens in the press conference. All right.

Bob Thank you very much And to our panelists. remember: Press Conference: Yes I do I see if I see Michael Kors Thank you guys very much and we'll be back in touch soon on this as we await comments from the Fed chair. Jay Powell We got a runner. We've got a Runners conference.

I Think we're going to get some more reaction to the decision after a quick break? No, we won't. We're going to dive into it. So the reason everything's going nuts is because of these dots right here. One two three four five, six, seven, eight nine I Don't know if it's the same dots, but I can tell you in the last sap the last summary of economic projections that this is the Fed fund rate of where they're expecting it to go in 2023..

folks I don't know if you have a Gregorian calendar near you, we're in 2023. So this is what they're saying we they think is going to happen between now and the end of the year. between Now and the Fat Man and the Redcoat comes down the chimney. They think that we're not only going to get one rate like, but two rate hikes Kind of like that Billy maze.

But wait, there's more you didn't like the one right? Like, well, too bad because we're giving you another one. So most of the voting members are thinking whoa, and then actually some of them. Three of them are thinking three or more, one of them sinking four, two of them are thinking three, Most of them are thinking at least two. And then obviously there's six voting members who will actually all of them, but two are saying we're getting at least one Ray hike.

These two people are probably dumb and don't know what's going on. Um, we have one crazy person all the way over here who thinking, who's this Renegade look at that little Dot It might not mean anything to you because you're like, hey, it's like one little doc on the screen, but someone thinks all the way out in 2025, we're still going to be clocking in at a Fed fund rate of 5.62 What what? That's crazy and even look at this now. even in 2024, you have three members thinking it's gonna stay above 5.5 that's dead, dead, not Bueno There's things in this world that are Bueno And then there's things in this world that are not Bueno And this is very much one of those non-bl Bueno type of scenarios. Uh, definitely a non-bueno type of a scenario.

Let me zoom in out on this so we could read a little bit more. Uh, brother, oh brother oh brother, where are we at March projection Okay, 5.1 4.3 Fed Fund Rate: 5.6 Dude, look at that increase. man, these numbers you don't want them to go up in March They thought it was going to be basically where we're about to go in one rate hike. but now the new one, it's up by two.

it's up by two. In 2024, they forced it to increase by one and then 2025 they forced it to increase it by one. So all these the current Fed fund projection is all in increase relative to what they thought was going to go on in. March As in over the past what two fed Fomc meetings they are like yeah, no, we kind of under predicted what we were gonna have to do as an increasing hawkishness as an increasing the downward pressure on the economy as in basically saying hey, you know how the Market's been ripping Yeah, go yourself buddy And they said it exactly like that.

In fact, you might want to clip that one right there just so you have something to compare it to in the future. But the way they're like hey Buddy I think that's what Powell is going to say in his meeting today. he's gonna walk in, he's gonna have like a little bit of a Conor McGregor gangster swag and he's all going to be like hope you yoloed into some puts because your calls just got I'm pretty sure that's how it's gonna go. It's I'm not saying like I have the transcript or anything like that, but uh yeah, that's it's but it's uh, it's a doozy.

Pce Inflation: They think Pce is going to come down okay. Unemployment: They're predicting an uptick to over four percent. some of them going as high as five in 2024. Uh, change in Real GDP They think GDP is going to be fine.

They think GDP is going to increase. Uh, that's scary. That's bearish. Where are we looking at here? Participants are projection real? GDP All right, I Don't think we're diving into that one.

Uh, with unemployment rate? Interesting. So I believe we're clocking in at 3435 right now and most are saying we think it's going over four for sure. and then they think it's going over four, four, four six and then they think it's gonna stay there. And then they think in the long run, we're coming back down.

So not only do we have them voting that they're most likely going to be more hawkish in terms of defend fund rate, but they believe that the Fallout from it is obviously quite a bit of an increase. Um, like a one percentage Point increase in the unemployment projection Pce. Eventually that will come down. blah blah blah.

What else do we have? What else do we have? Unemployment Rate: Yeah, they're looking over four or four and a half. So a one percent increase over the next year or two in unemployment. Not the best, Not the best, Not the best, Not the best. The FED fund rate.

Dude, these guys are clocking in between five Five and five point Seven five. They're looking at five six. Those dirty dogs change in Real GDP So if you're per day, What? huh? If you are predicting that you have to do two more fed fun increases, Why did we pause? This is why they're giving us the of a hawkish pause. What? what? Uh, as Steve Leesman said, it feels like they're going until they break something.

So here are the changes: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity economic expansion has Okay blah blah blah blah. How do I get this whole thing? So weird committee decided to maintain holding the target rate steady, assess, additional, whatever information. All right. So kind of everything that we expected.

We'll buckle up, Buttercup, It's gonna be a fun one. Why am I in the one 15 second chart? Uh, I'm gonna throw out a prediction here. and here's what. I'm gonna ask of you if you guys could do me a favor which would be sick.

It would be greatly appreciated if you guys could. What I'm going to do is throw out, uh, a prediction here that this maybe not exactly, but probably exactly is is the high 43906 the high of today I think is going to be the high that sticks for a hot minute. Now what I'm asking of you is now that I've made that prediction if I'm right, oh my God tell everyone about it. be like dude, this kid does he know the future is this kid a fortune teller and then if I'm wrong, just just forget about it.

just be like ah yeah, like we all make mistakes like I remember when I was like a fat pudgy bag of mayo too I also made mistakes. Yeah, so that's what I'm going to ask of you if I get this right saying yo, this is the high and we are now about to start our trip down to reality. Dude, I'm already I'm already in my mind calculating my profits if we hit this other Gap pill at 423 and then from there. what happens if we get to 416, What happens if we get to 408 409? The FED just basically said your calls.

That's if I had to summarize it to you if you wanted me to give you the layman terms TD tldr of the new SCP and what Pals most likely about to say he's going to say yeah, good luck with your calls I Hope they were fun because you got to enjoy calls. you really did from March mid-march until now. If you were in calls, you were probably crushing it. I Think we're moving on to the next story I Think we're moving on to the next chapter I think we're moving on to the next book I Think we're moving on to the next event in the decathlon because it feels like the yoloing calls and letting it rip higher it.

That might be a story of the past did you actually I Exited my calls this morning I was on stream when I exited my calls I was in at 244 and exited at like 295 I knew I didn't want to hold in today because I didn't know what the results were going to be and it feels like I got super freaking lucky because this is getting stopped right now I did get into some puts on the account that I forgot was open uh June 30th Spy 4 25 I'm in at 161. I'm not telling you to copy that I just am attempting to be more transparent and let you guys know where I'm at. They're currently trading at 174 which means that I'm up money so that's pretty sick I went pretty heavy I got 60 of those. Um, so what was that like? a 10K bet a 10K bet? Yeah.

I'm Revenge trading I'm trying to make back all that money that I lost. Uh Market Top. Who would have guessed? Well, we'll see. We'll see.

We'll see. Is it a guarantee? Absolutely not. No one on the Internet is should be guaranteeing because you're on the internet for a reason. Uh, if you were that good at specifically trading, you'd be kind of keeping it all to yourself.

But I think this actually truly like in a non-fucking round manner in a serious of a voice and as a stream as I could possibly be. I Think this in the short term and medium term is going to represent a high a high water mark. I mean the fed This is. Seriously.

Remember this morning on the Bloomberg thing when they're like the hawkish surprise. We essentially exceeded the hawkish surprise which is bearish when you're more hawkish than the hawkish people thought you would be. That equals bearish when you're hawkish squared or hawkish Plus hawkish or hawkish times. hawkish.

Whatever. Hawkish math. Whatever avian bass math you want to be doing on the Whiteboard it equals bearish. That's my opinion.

Maybe I'm right, Maybe I'm wrong. If I'm right, please tell the world if I'm wrong, just forget about it. and like, let me do my own thing. Let me do my own thing.

When's pal speaking daddy? Powell will be speaking in a mere four minutes I have the stream ready to go I have two of his streams so we can listen to him at Double the speed. but we are ready to go and I guess we are vomiting. To the downside: Vomiting. Stop listening to analysts.

Yeah, start listening to your favorite fat streamers by the name of Matt Fat Cores. Wait till it becomes rip Cord rip or Ripped cores. I'm gonna go on my revenge tour pretty soon. What is it? We're in mid-june You guys just wait till mid-august You give me two months.

You give me two months. I've realized that potentially all you have to uh factors is in chat right now. How dare you? Are you mocking me? Is fat cores in here mocking me? I Think you are wrong and respectfully disagree. Well I think you only have one letter in your name and if you have one letter in your name that's not a real name so that's what I think about you so-called A if you will if you will.

Um, but yeah no the markets. Dude, it's been hot. It's been real hot like real odd man. So like let's just all let's all be realistic about this.

Uh when the hawk turns into a bald eagle. Overall: F Yeah, this is kind of reminiscent. You know what? This reminds me of this event right here. Is this going to load? or where are we at or what's going on with trading View: Is it just like not giving me data anymore Even though I pay for it.

It's like hey man, you know how you pay for that thing but we don't want to give it to you anymore. Do you know what today reminds me of today? reminds me of this day right here. Pop Quiz Pop Quiz time Does anyone remember this day? January 5th 2022 Does anyone remember this day? And if so, tell me. tell me what it's all about.

Tell me what happened on Wednesday January 5th 2022 which was the day after the all-time Market High Is that the day? GameStop Squeeze No. This has literally nothing to do with GameStop whatsoever. Come on you historians You Market Historians? Nope not. Jackson Hole Fomc no, Does no one listen to me? Did you guys just come here and then like turn off the volume and just let me shout out myself, am I in my own weird Truman Show Where like everyone just kind of feels bad for me and they're like yeah, we're gonna watch but like that's kind of it, that's kind of it.

Nope, it wasn't Ukraine Nope, Nope, Nope. Nope. nope. So what happened on Wednesday January 5th 2022 Uh, roughly a year and a half ago.

It was an Fomc meeting minutes day. so we didn't get the results of an Fomc meeting. But what we did get was the meeting minutes from the December meeting. And that's when the world found out that they were about to go hawkish.

The world was sitting around in the joyous nature of the Rona period thinking man, this unlimited quantitative easing and zero interest rates is pretty sick. We should keep ripping the market Higher and Higher and Higher And then the meeting minutes came out from the December meeting which we got on Wednesday January the 5th. That's when they became publicly available and we thought to ourselves, oh, what are they doing talking about quantitative tightening? What are they doing talking about raising interest rates And then basically it was a notification that the party was over and I don't think it's that bad. Like I don't think we're about to like just die into Kingdom Come here like to die into Valhalla Like I don't think it's gonna be one of those deals.

but I do believe that this represents I Mean, look at what the Market's been doing. This represents a stark differential from Monday March 3rd Until now, it was all on this concept that the Fed's almost over. We beat inflation. Let's go rippity skippity doodah.

The market just kept buying and buying and buying. We were up 15 and now the Bulls realized that they were wrong and were not that done. And the Fed's still going to be hawkish and we're still like this has happened multiple times before. Like all you saw rips in this time period.

right here in October, you saw it in July Uh, and then you saw another one in January where the Market's getting ahead of itself. The market has now in the past year four or five times thought to itself, hey, um yeah, we think the Fed's done. We think the Fed's good. Like what's there to worry about and then we realize that there's the Fed's not done.

We need to listen to them. This is, if you think of the Jackson Hole meeting which was in August of 2022, everything was ripping again. Uh here. I Don't want to miss this.

but oh, he's coming in. But anyway, look in: August August August August August August August August right here. This right here was the Uh Jackson Hole meeting when Powell reminded us that they're still seriously fighting inflation. It feels like one of those vibes.

But let's see. Good afternoon. Let's see, let's see. my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.

For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing inflation. Back down to our two percent goal: Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy.

We have raised our policy interest rate by five percentage points, and we've continued to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk pace. We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. In light of how far we've come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening. Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings Looking ahead, nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to two percent over time.

and I will have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments, the U.S economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates, higher interest rates, and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business Fixed investment committee participants generally expect to subdued growth to continue. In our summary of economic projections, the median projection has real GDP growth at 1.0 percent this year and 1.1 percent next year, well below the median estimate of the longer run normal growth rate.

The labor market remains very tight over the past three months. payroll job gains averaged a robust 283 000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up, but remained low in May at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance.

The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years. Nominal wage growth has shown signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far. This year, While the jobs to workers Gap has declined, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers. Thumbs up! Good chart: Fomc participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balances over time, easing upward pressures on inflation.

The median unemployment rate projection in the SCP Rises to 4.1 percent at the end of this year and 4.5 percent at the end of next year. Inflation remains well above our longer run two percent goal over the 12 months ending in April. Total Pce process Prices rose 4.4 percent, excluding the volatile food and energy categories. Core Piece: Core Pce prices Rose 4.7 percent in May.

The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index came in at four percent and the change in the core core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run High and the process of getting inflation back down to two percent has a long way to go. The median projection in the SCP for total Pce inflation is 3.2 percent this year, 2.5 percent next year, and 2.1 percent in 2025..

core Pce inflation, which excludes volatile and food and energy prices, is projected to run higher than total inflation, and the median projection has been revised in the SCP up to 3.9 percent this year, despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The Fed's monetary policy actions are: Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and price and stable prices. For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Objective: As I noted earlier, since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by five percentage points.

We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, especially housing and investment. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain in light of how far we've come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening.

The committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the Federal Funds rate at five to five and a quarter percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings As I noted earlier, nearly nearly all quantity participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year, but at this meeting, considering how far and how fast we've moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent. Over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments In our SCP participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal government based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. If the economy evolves.

as projected, the median participant projects at the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year, 4.6 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.4 percent at the end of 2025.. for the end of this year, the meetings very surprising by hasten to add as always that these projections are not a committee decision or plan. If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path for policy will adjust as appropriate to Foster our maximum employment and price stability goals. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks we remain committed to Bringing Inflation bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. For storing price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do at the FED is in service to our public mission.

We will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. Let's do this thing. Um, thank you.

Colby Smith With the financial Times, I'm curious what gives you and the committee the confidence that waiting will not be counterproductive at a time when the monthly pace of core inflation is still so elevated. Interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. While they felt the drag of the past Fed actions have started to recover in some regions and financial conditions, you know most recently we're easing. So I guess I would I guess I would go back to the beginning of this tightening cycle to address that.

So, as we started our rate hikes early last year, we said there were three issues that would need to be addressed kind of in sequence and that of the speed of tightening, the level to which rates would need to go, and then the period of time over which we'd need to keep policy restrictive. So at the outset, going back 15 months, the key issue was how fast to move rates up and we moved very quickly by historical standards. Then last December after four consecutive 75 basis point hikes, we moderated to a pace of 50 of a 50 basis point hike and then this year to three 25 basis point hikes at sequential meetings. So it seemed to us to make obvious sense to moderate our rate hikes as we got closer to our destination.

So the decision to consider not hiking at every meeting and ultimately to hold rates steady at this meeting I would just say it's a continuation of of that process. The main issue that we're focused on now is determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent over time, so that the pace of the increases and the ultimate level of increases are separate variables. Given how far it it we have come, it may make sense for rates to move higher, but at a more moderate pace. I Want to stress one more thing and that is that the committee decision made today was only about this meeting.

We didn't make any decision about uh, going forward, including what would happen at the next meeting including we did not decide or really discuss anything about going to every other meeting. Kind of the stoplight says initial debate about the possibility of July any sense of the initial support at this stage for that move. So again, we didn't We didn't make a decision about July I Mean of course it came up in the in the in the meeting from time to time. but really, the focus was on what to do today.

I would say about about 70 one chance decision 25 hits Wednesday July 26th power. It's kind of funny that adults still racism help us understand the narrative here because it feels like there's been a level shift in the in the dots. Um, stronger GDP Uh, less of a hits on employment, slower progress on inflation. Where's the disinflation coming from the labor? Market's going to be stronger.

It looks like it's not coming from there. Demand is not coming down all that fast. According to GDP, you've doubled your your estimate of GDP. So what's the what's the narrative here? It seems like it's getting more Immaculate rather than more messy.

So you're right that the data came in I would say uh, consistent with but on the high side of expectations. So and if you go back to the old the former SCP the last SCP in March you will see that growth moved up. These are not huge moves, but growth estimates moved up a bit. Unemployment estimates moved down a bit, inflation estimates moved up a bit and you know the all three of those kind of point in the same direction.

which is, you know that perhaps more restraint will be necessary than we had thought at the last meeting. So although the level, frankly is is pretty, the level of 5.6 is pretty consistent if you think about it. where the Federal Funds rate was trading before the bank incidents of early March So but so we've kind of gone back to that. So your question is, where is it? Where is the disinflation going to come from And you know I Don't think the story has really changed.

We the committee has consistently said and believed that the process of getting inflation down is going to be a gradual one. It's going to take some time. and uh, I think you go back to the to the three-part framework for core Pce inflation, which is we think of as good an indicators you can have for where inflation is going forward. You start with Goods with Goods we need to see continued healing and Supply conditions, supply side conditions.

They've definitely improved a substantial amount, but if you talk to people in business they will say it's not back to where it was. So that's that's one thing and that shouldn't able Goods prices to continue because because inflation to continue to come down over time in terms of Housing Services inflation, that's another big piece and and you are seeing there that new rents, new new leases are are coming in at low levels and it's really a matter of time as that goes through the pipeline. In fact I Think any forecast that people are making right now about inflation coming down this year will will contain a big dose of this year and next year we'll contain a a good amount of disinflation from that source and and that's again, probably going to come slower than we would affect. That leaves you know the big sector which is a little more than half.

Pardon me of the uh of core PC Inflation That's non-housing services and you know we see only the earliest signs of disinflation there. It's a sector. It's a very Broad and diverse sector. I Would say in a number of the parts of that sector the largest cost would be wage costs.

It's the service sector, so it's It's heavily labor intensive and I think many analysts would say that the key to getting inflation down there is to have a continuing loosening in labor market conditions which we have seen. We have actually seen you know I go through a number of indicators suggesting there's been some losing in labor market conditions. We need to see that continue. I Would almost say that the the conditions to get inflation down or are coming into place and that would be growing growth meaningfully below Trend It would be a labor market that's loosening.

It would be good pipelines getting healthier and healthier and that kind of thing. But there there the things are in place that we need to see. but the process of that actually working on inflation is going to take some time. Um Nick Tamarose of the Wall Street Journal Uh, chair pal, what's the value in pausing and signaling future hikes versus uh, just hiking now I Mean not to be flippant, but it seems double masking it back here.

I Have to actually go to the gym. 16 of your colleagues put down a higher year-end 23 rate today. A majority of you think you're going to have to go up points this year. so why not just rip off the Band-Aid and raise rates today so that at first I would say that the the question of speed is a separate question from the question from the from from that of level.

Okay, so um, and I think if you look at the SCP that is our estimate our individual is. it's really accumulation of our individual estimates of how far to go. I mentioned how how we got to those numbers. In terms of speed, it's it's what I said at the beginning which is speed was very important last year as we get closer and closer to the destination.

and according to the SCP, we're not so far away from the destination in most people's accounting. Uh, it's It's reasonable. It's common sense to go a little slower, just as it was reasonable to go from 75 basis points to 50 to 25 at every meeting. and so, uh, the committee thought overall that it was appropriate to moderate the pace if only slightly and their benefits to that.

so that gives us more information to make decisions. We may try to make better decisions. I Think it allows the economy a little more time to adapt as we as we make our decisions going forward. and we'll get to see you know we haven't.

Really, We don't know the full extent of of the consequences of the banking turmoil that we've seen. We it would be early to see those, but we don't know what the extent is. We'll have some more time to see that unfolding. It's just the idea that we're trying to get this right and uh, this is.

If you think of the two things as separate variables then I think I Think that the the skip I shouldn't call to skip. the the decision is live with only one June employment uh with only the June employment and the CPI report for June due to be released before the July meeting, you get the ECI after you get the senior Loan officer survey after you get some Bank earnings at the end of next month. What incremental information will the committee be using to inform their judgment on whether this is in fact a skip or a longer pause? Well, I think you're adding that to the the data that we've seen since the last meeting too. You know we since we chose to maintain rates at this meeting is it'll really be a three-month period of data that we can look at I think that's a full quarter and I think you can.

You can draw more conclusions from that than you come from any six. Any six week period. We'll look at those things. We'll also look at the evolving risk picture.

We'll look at what's happening in the financial sector. We'll look at all the data, the evolving Outlook and we'll make a decision. Gina Thanks for taking our questions Gina Smile like New York Times You obviously in your forecast marked up the sort of path for growth marked down the path for unemployment marked up the path for inflation pretty notably. I Wonder you know since March what has changed to make you think that the economy is a lot more resilient and inflation is going to be a lot more stubborn? And given that you know, why Do you feel confident that this is as high as you're going to have to revise the Federal Funds rate? Or do you think it's possible we could have even a higher than 5.6 terminal by the end of this this cycle, you know I I mean on the first part I Just think we're following the data and also the Outlook The economy is the labor market.

I Think has surprised many if not all analysts over the last couple of years with its extraordinary resilience. really. And um, it's it's just remarkable. And that's really.

If you think about it, that's what's driving it's it's job creation. It's it's uh, wages moving up. It's it's supporting spending, which in turn is supporting hiring. And it's it's really the engine it seems that is that is driving the economy.

So it's it's really the data. In terms of, you know, we always write down at these meetings what we think the appropriate terminal rate will be at the end of this year. That's that's how we do it. Um, it's based on, uh, our our own individual assessments of what the most likely path of the economy is it can be.

It can actually in reality wind up being lower or higher and you know there's really no way to know. But it's it's it is. it's It's what people think as of today and as the as the data come in, it can move around during the intermediate period It could wind up back in the same place, but it really will be data driven. I Can't I can't tell you that that I Ever have a lot of confidence that we can see where the where the federal funds rate will be that far in advance? Mr Chairman, Thanks for my question.

Um, you had said back at the end of May that you thought risks were getting closer to being into balance. Is that still the case? Or has your mind changed about the balance of risks out there? And also could you give us an idea of what would be a sufficiently restrictive funds rate is the obviously the current rate according to the committee is not sufficiently restrictive. Is it Five six? Is it Six words for sufficiently restrictive? Thank you. Um, you know I I Would say again that I think that over time the balance of risks as we move from very you know from interest rates at effectively zero now to five percentage points with with an SCP calling for additional hikes I think we've moved much closer to our destination.

which is that sufficiently restrictive rate? uh. and I think that means by almost by definition that the the risks of of sort of overdoing it and under underdoing it are are getting closer to being in Balance I Still think and my my colleagues agree that that the risks to inflation are to the upside. Still, so we don't. We don't think we're there with inflation yet because we're just looking at the data.

You know, if you look at the Um at the full range of of inflation data, particularly the core data, you just you just aren't seeing a lot of progress over the last year. Headline: Of course, inflation has come down materially, but as you know, we look at core as a better indicator of where inflation overall is going officially. So I Think you know what? what we'd like to see is credible evidence that inflation is topping out and then beginning to come down? That's that's what we want to see. Of course, that's what we want to see.

And um I I think it's also we understand that there are lags, but remember that it's it's more than a year since Financial conditions began tightening I think it's I think the reason we're we're comfortable pausing is that we are still much of the tightening took place over last summer and later into the year. and I think it's It's reasonable to think that some of that may come into effect. so we're you know I Think stretching out the into a more moderate pace is appropriate to to allow you to make that Judgment of sufficiency. you know more with more data over time in the Washington Post Thanks for taking your questions I Wanted to ask further on the lag effects when you're considering when you would hike again throughout the course of the year.

Are there things that you would expect to kick in as those lag effects come come into effect that would inform your decisions. Have you learned things over the past year that give you some sense of timeline for when to expect those lags to come into effect? So it's a it's a challenging thing in economics, it's it's sort of standard thinking that monetary policy affects economic activity with long and variable legs. Of course, these days Financial conditions begin to tighten well in advance of actual rate hikes. So if you look back when we were lifting off, we started talking about lifting off.

By the time we had lifted off, a two-year which is a pretty good estimate of where policy is going, had gone from 20 basis points to 200 basis points. So in that sense, tightening happens much sooner than it used to. In a world where where news was in newspapers and not you know, not on on. The Wire So that's that's different.

But it's still the case that what you see is intra-sensitive spending is affected very, very quickly. So housing and durable goods and things like that, but broader demand and spending and and asset values and things like that. they just take longer and you can pretty much find research to support whatever answer you would like on that. So there's not any certainty or agreement in the profession on how long it takes, So you know then.

that makes it challenging, of course. So we're We're looking at the calendar. We're looking at what's happening in the economy. We're having to make these judgments.

Again, It's one of the main reasons why it makes sense to go at a slightly more moderate Pace now as we seek that that uh, ultimate I can't point to that ultimate endpoint I can't point to a specific data point I Think we'll see it when we see inflation. you know, really, really flattening out reliably and then starting to soften I Think we'll know that we're that it's working and ideally by by taking a little more time, we won't go well past the air the level where we need to go I Was curious if you could meetings since the March and how you're teasing that out apart from these lag effects so it's it's too early still to to try to assess the full extent of what that might mean. Uh, and you know that's something we're going to be watching of course. And you know, if we were to see what we would view as significant tightening beyond what would normally be exp