Foreign foreign do do do do do you know? Oh hey uh oh hey. welcome back, Welcome back to the Mad core show. And today we're going to be talking about the Fomc meeting minutes because if you're watching this live, they're going to come out in nine minutes. If you're not watching the slide, we might if you're not watching it live.

I Think like right here, like if you want to drag it, you could probably drag it forward like nine minutes. so just want to throw that out there to save you a little bit of time. But if you are watching it live, Uh, we get to party together. We're gonna get to party together for a little bit before things get a little crazy in the Old Market So I Want to get everyone prepped for the Fomc meeting minutes? I Think this will be a particularly weird one because these are the meeting minutes from before When they decided to change the calculation for the inflation report, the Consumer Price Index Instead of taking in two years worth of data, it now takes in one.

So these meaning minutes are from before that because remember the meeting minutes or the breakdown of everything happened in the most recent meeting. So it's going to be a weird one. and it's also going to be really weird of how the market reacts to it. So we're gonna obviously check out the meeting minutes.

We're gonna listen to what all the Talking Heads on CNBC have to say about it and we'll kind of do some other things. So I just want to get everyone set. I Could also review all the trades I've done today already posted in locals, so if you're not there, check it out. Oh, we also filmed an incredibly cool thing for Manscape.

We got a little bit bored my producer myself earlier on today, so we filmed an entire ad for Manscape, so shout out to them they are sponsoring this piece of content. Use the code Matt M-a-t-t for 20 off and also free shipping and no one's really called it out yet. But look how beautifully shaven I am look at. look at that.

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We could if we're feeling a little bit dangerous. but I'll play that ad for you as we're waiting for it. but I just do want I want to do very quickly a little bit of prep work. So first of all Market sold off this morning the S P 500 has popped.

Ever since then, we're just dancing around this 400 level. That makes sense I Told everyone today. get prepared for us to volatilely go nowhere and that's exactly what's happened. We're pretty much right where Market Open surprise, surprise.

That's exactly why today was the day to sell premium I Sold Spy premium I sold Q premium I sold coin premium and I sold Tesla premium All that is on locals. Um, and this is what we expected and we're pinned right to this key level of 400 Key technical level key. Uh, really psychological level: Everyone is waiting to see if there's any surprises in this report. There's not a guarantee that there will be surprises, won't be surprises.

That's what we're all waiting to figure out. and we're gonna find out. in about five minutes, stocks rise on Wall Street attempts to recover from worst day of 2023 fed minutes Loom ahead. So we're waiting for that fed minutes to show support level for larger hikes higher Peak And what they're talking about is the Fed fund rate.

So just so you know, the next Fomc meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be coming out on the result of it on March 22nd. So we have a full month literally exactly a month from this point and as of now, we are currently at 4.5 percent and there's a 79 chance that the next rate hike will be another 25 bips. Let's find out: is it going to be 25 bips? Is it going to be 50 bips? Or are we only going to get one of 25? Are they just gonna hit us with 150? Are we going to do 225s in a row? There's various things that could go on if you had asked me right now before reading into these Fomc meeting minutes. If I had a guess at this exact moment in time, I would think that we're gonna get one more of 25 bips.

I Believe what we're seeing in front of us is accurate. You guys can't see this. but there's a 21 chance of a 50 bips rate hike. But let's see.

obviously this report is going to change quite a bit. More importantly, on Friday morning this Friday if you're watching this live once again an hour before the Market opens, we get the Pce report the personal consumption expenditure. It's like the CPI report, but the data it takes in it's a little bit more timely and it's also a little bit more Broad in scope. So allegedly, if you believe the FED they actually like to use that information more than the CPI report, but they're all.

It's all still important. And also Thursday This week we also get GDP numbers so there's my point is, there's a lot that has to happen before this exact moment all the way up to the Fomc meeting. so this is important to know. but I don't think it's the end-all be-all like there's a lot that the Federal Reserve really needs to consume and the voting members really need to deliberate upon.

So I just want to let you guys know where we're at right now the market. It sold off, it popped. We all we've done is do a great job of going nowhere. Today was the day to without a doubt just be a premium seller.

I Also want to call all out once again for people who are watching it. live that after the market closes today we get Nvidia and we get lucid and I think Etsy and there's one other. So we're kind of wrapping up with earnings season so I just wanted to put that out there to everyone, but with the time and everything I'm gonna play the Manscape ad for all of you and then by the time the ad is over, it will be time to listen to what in the world is going on with the Fomc meeting minutes. So shout out to Manscape and I would love to get your thoughts on if you like this ad or not.

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Anywho, let's get ready. Let's get ready. Let's get ready. The results should be coming out pretty pretty soon.

Where is it? Where is it? Where is it all right? Let me get the volume there. Whoa. Power Lunch Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Power Launch along with Kelly Evans I'm Tyler Matheson It is a busy afternoon ahead as we, uh, await. Absolutely.

January Meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee A meeting at let's see the volume. uh, raised interest rates by a relatively. there's another meeting coming up. We're on.

We're going for a ride. It was higher by 68 points. Let's go now to Steve Leesman in Washington We're all over the place. Steve Yeehaw Almost all participants at the last January meeting for the Federal Reserve agreed on the 25 basis point rate hike.

Ongoing rate increases were seen as appropriate by all members of the of the decision in the Federal. Market Committee 25 basis point hikes were seen as allowing the FED to assess the economy and the impact of rate hikes as they went along. However, a few wanted to raise by 50 basis points. In common fed speak, a few is more than two, so there may be another person or appears to be another person out there.

Other than the two of whom we know uh Bullard and Mester who wanted to go 50, they wanted to go 50 because they wanted to bring the Federal Reserve more, uh, closer more quickly to the Target that we're trying to get to. Several saw risks to the Outlook is becoming more balanced. Participants supported maintaining a restrictive policy stance until inflation was clearly on a path towards their two percent. Target on inflation was seen as unacceptably high.

There was substantially more evidence was needed for confidence that inflation was on a downward path. It was important for financial conditions. Rather green where you guys think this is going. it's volatile thus far.

Red or green, where are you guys looking in 20 Then they hadn't seen in 2022.. upside risk was seen two inflation, but a few saw the bat. the risk is more balanced Economic risks however were to the downside going down or going up slow further in 2023. Worth mentioning at this point.

a little asterisk here. All of this came before the Big Jobs report and the big retail sales report and the stickier inflation numbers that we had is all they entered those numbers below Trend Growth was seen needed in order to bring Supply and and demand back into balance. Finally, there was an elevated chance of recession scene in 2023. Although some said that the China reopening and you're vomiting your area growth uh which had been better than expected could help U.S demand Kelly right? So many key points there.

Steve thank you who I'll Stick Around Actually, let's get some more reaction here. Uh, bringing in Diane Swang she's Chief Economist at KPMG Diane It's great to see you And probably the most important thing to highlight is that in the language Steve gave us, he used the phrase a few to describe uh, those who maybe wanted bigger rate hikes. Uh, the more so the upgrade, the more hawkish we would have been if we used the word some and we didn't get there. Um, that said, the market has still turned negative, so that tells us there's there's not as much in the tone here that maybe the doves were hoping for exactly and I think you know we did see after this, we know as Steve already pointed out master and Bullard had said they wanted 50 basis point hikes, there was more than just them.

I would expect Waller to be on that list as well, but I think what's really important is what's happened since then and how do we interpret where they were thinking about things then versus where they are today. And clearly the biggest issue that Steve highlighted is the trajectory on inflation is proven stickier and growth has come in much stronger than they were expected. They were looking for this sort of nice, cushy soft Landing with the economy slowing down below Trend and we've gotten the exact opposite in the data so far. and that's really going to put give an upper hand to those people who were hoping to go that 50 basis points at the meeting in March And do you suspect that that this increases the likelihood that it's going to be a half Point rise in March And what does that say about either the consist consistency of Fed policy or about the FED itself? In other words, does it does it reinforce confidence? Does it cause concern about the confidence in the FED that investors should have? It's a great question.

and I think one. I Think it's because of the data that we've gotten and the FED says it's data driven, The data's changed and so they're responding to change the data and that is It's now confirmed that instead of being able to go slowly, they have to go a little more aggressively and frankly to keep Financial conditions tight. and to keep from getting this sort of Lost in Translation I will stay to the script, but you can see, sort of. you know.

his tenor of his comments were a little less. We saw that rally during his press conference where Financial conditions actually eased the FED can't afford that. Now the stakes are much higher than they were when they had this meeting. You know why they felt confident.

Then the date has changed. They're responding to it. That's credible. You know we're fortunate Steve that we will get another job support.

But so there's been a lot of questions about the January data and whether it's a head fake on warmer weather and not or not. And like you said, you had the nominal spending stuff yesterday. We know it's You know, maybe it's not a shorter month? the meeting is later in March than you would think. it's March 21 and 22.

So we're going to get March 22. obviously we might even get into some of the inflation numbers. We might even get retail sales before then, so they will have a chance. Hopefully if they were going to overreact not to do so in response to just one month's data.

Yeah, yeah, and I'm gonna I'm gonna disagree with Diane with the provision of saying that what she's saying is perfectly plausible and it really becomes a debate about what the default of the Federal Reserve is here. I'm going to throw out that I think the default is 25 basis points and I still think it's 25 basis points and I have a little bit of backup when I look at the market percentage probability of a 25 which is still after starting and turning against a few, it's still 85 percent. So I'm backed up by that. and I think I need to throw out here the question Kelly or start thinking myself is what would it take to jar the majority of the opinion to go from a few to many to most to all to a 50 basis point hike and I think it would be another outsized inflation report? maybe or maybe not another Outside Jobs report.

But if that outside job report came with strong wage gains again, then perhaps would be back on the road to 50. I am going to say right now I still think it's a 25 because I think that's the default of the Federal Reserve when I read these minutes I say what do we want to do We want to move by 25s and assess the the outcome of our prior hikes here I Still think that's where the FED is right now. Would you address kind of what I want to go back to Diane and get her reaction to what you just said I saw Diane you're actually nodding there at a lot of what Steve was saying. But but let me come back to what I asked Diane and let me come back to Steve If The Fed changes course and and goes a half point at the next meeting.

What does it say about the Fed's control over over the data or control over the economy? Does it? Does it say they? they don't have the grip they thought they had to turn around that quickly. Pop it down. Actually think what it would say is that the FED is going to do what it would call opportunistic disinflation and I think what they would do this in the economy to try to ring more inflation out of the economy more quickly than they otherwise would because they feel they have a little bit more leeway if the unemployment rate remains down. If economic activity remains strong, they're looking at these numbers Tyler with a completely different attitude Than once we look at it.

We've got to say oh, the economy is too strong. That means that the FED has to do more. They say okay, the economy is strong. That means we can do more and use this opportunity for more disinflation in the economy.

Just want to mention the market here which day and now is up 94. A little bit more consistent with what we mentioned earlier about this language that we didn't get to. Some wanted to go 50. we probably would have been at Some after the data and that's why I Think it's going to be so important to see what happens as those February numbers start to come in exactly and what you pointed out was what exactly we're looking at is I Actually think there's a couple of things that would push them towards 50 and I think I agree with Steve in terms of what their default is and what it was going into that meeting.

I think it's shifting and I am expecting to get some stronger data. They're pulling the rug on it that March meeting. They're also going to be doing their trajectory for rate hikes and it's very likely I Think we get a much higher trajectory on rate hikes than we got in December Which means we already know the terminal rate is going to be higher than five and a quarter percent if it goes to five and three quarters percent. Going a quarter point at every meeting doesn't make as much sense.

and I think what we need to see is how many people are on the high end of those rate hikes. In the you know the summary of economic projections that the FED produces. My guess we had eight in December up from six Previously we've been chasing those higher rates. We also lost a big moderating force and Steve you know this as well as I Vice chair Leo Brainard was a very moderating force in terms of Great Heights and I think this meeting in March with two with what I think will be still strong data I Do think some of the strength is overstated in January and we know what's a head fake.

but the seasonals and what we're seeing coming in on February Exactly as you laid it out, responding to a stronger economy. and that's the program for them to go a half because if they really ratchet up their trajectory, going a quarter point is a little higher now with 25. which is slightly just like more pressure coming into a balloon right now. that pressure is being relieved by the market upping the odds of a June rate like another 25 entirely possible June Great height.

That pressure wow by a 50 in March Yeah, 10-year yield by the way, back over 3.9 about 391. Final comment: Uh, dealer's Choice Diane will give it to you real quick. I Mean the bottom line is the Fed is data dependent. The fed's going to respond as they say the data come in.

we've got less dub voices, less of a strong Dove influence at the moment on the fed, and I think that's going to make a difference and push them to a half percent in March. With what I think will be still strong data in February, we might get weaker data in March but that doesn't show up until May Oh yeah, all right, thank you both. We really appreciate it. Diane Swonk joining us today along with our very own Steve Leesman All right.

Thanks folks. News Alert Now on the Supreme Court hearing. All right. All right.

All right. All right. Oh Wait shit. I wanted that 230.

That's important. No, no, no, no, no, Come back. come back. give us what were you talking about.

Hey Tyler that's right at issue today before The Supreme Court was the question can be held liable for aiding and abetting Isis under the anti-terrorism act because some members of Isis were able to use Twitter to recruit and fundraise for their Enterprise and because some people were killed in Isis terrorist attacks. that was the question that the court was grappling with today and the court justices seemed to really try to get their arms around what the implications would be of a decision here for all kinds of other businesses. Whether it's Banks, whether it's gun dealers, whether it's telephone companies, all the rest who might be implicated in a similar type of situation in which Isis or another terrorist group is able to use General services that are offered broadly to everybody in order to commit a terrorist attack. Now, the lawyer for Twitter made the case this way.

He said: ultimately, the court here should conclude that the failure to not do more to remove terrorist intent does not amount to The Knowing provision of substantial assistance to Isis And therefore, this case should go away. and I think you'd have to say Tyler that ultimately Twitter today had a worse day in court than YouTube and Google did yesterday under that Section 230 situation that you mentioned a separate but related case yesterday I think Google and YouTube fared better. The justice is a little bit more skeptical here today of YouTube, but at the end of the day, the victims in both of these cases are going to have a long way to go to prove that the provision of these kinds of General services to everybody ultimately amount to aiding and abetting a terrorist organization. guys.

Because it really if if I boil it down to the to the kernel, uh, I guess I See it this way. The question is whether an internet company a platform is responsible legally for the content that is generated by a third party that they quote publish on their platform, right? Yep, and that's the question under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. That's the 1996 law written you know many eons ago in Internet time. But that provision of the of the law in 1996 said that ultimately, these internet companies can't be held liable for things that third-party people post on their platforms.

That's the third party person's responsibility, not Twitter or Google or Facebook or any of the others. The issue today was interesting because it was like it's a slightly different legal ground. Similar set of victims though, people who've been killed or harmed in terrorist attacks. Arguing that because these companies provided services to the ISIS group in this case, that that provided a benefit.

Market Going down again, by the way, home recruit help them fundraising. Therefore, there's some liability there. The justices seemed a little skeptical of that argument. But Ultimately, they're going to have their day in court and we'll see where the Supreme Court comes down.

Decision not expected until later in this term of the Supreme Court fascinating that you said. and I Hadn't thought of it, but it's quite clearly the case. The implications here could extend to businesses in completely unrelated. Fields Like a gun manufacturer, a gun dealer? a a pharmacy that sells? Yeah, that's a big deal dude manufactured.

He's like shocked that this might have a massive ramifications in front of the Supreme Court Eamon Javers thank you coming up shares of Zip Recruiter Okay, really I know I don't care about that one. So I'm not going to get faked out. Uh, let's see if these odds changed up right back to where we were, so not much of a change there. Overall it I mean Fedman Show members resolve to keep fighting like it's not like that crazy like I'm looking at the breaking news on it.

Not a big surprise. I Think if anything, the people who thought it was a bluff that the FED wasn't the talkish. No, they're pretty freaking honkish. Fomc Men's confirmed the FED has come into defining inflation with tools that they don't actually solve the problem.

That's a good one. Uh, that's a pretty funny one. Fed minutes almost all thought 25 bips was appropriate, but a few favored or would have also agreed to a larger 50 bips rate increase. Most likely three people who was it bothered? uh, uh, Wallard, and who else.

Mesler Metzler It sounds like there's three Fed members who would have gone for 50 bips, which is a little bit more hawkish, but none of them are piping up saying we should do 25 bips. None of them whatsoever. Uh, market now already come back down. Here's a quick look on the day we sold off this morning.

it popped into the meeting. We got the results at two things, started to go haywire and now we are selling down, but even that revivaly going nowhere. This is exactly why I've just been selling premium I like I alluded to a little bit before um I've now started selling premium I was using thinkorswim, but they have a small commission, but that small commission when you're selling premium could still be a decent porn or percentage like a relative percentage of your maximum profit. So I just started doing things on Weeble which is allegedly allowing you to do uh, verticals for absolutely free.

so if you want to join up with me I just put it in chat. I Think there's some crazy deal right now like you get 12 free stocks and blah blah blah but that's where I've been trading my um options as of today. If you want to go on that Journey with me Uh, just so you know, just through it in chat, click on it blah blah blah. Um, but that's where we're at I'm wildly interested now I Wanted to leave you guys but now now I want to watch this.

This is getting more interesting I thought I wanted to prep because we have another stream to do today. If you're watching this live just so you know, at 4 pm today in an hour and 45 minutes Dave Lauer From We the investor is a person that we've had the opportunity to interview multiple times on this channel. uh, is actually doing a second interview with Gary Gensler the chairman of the SEC who just yesterday posted a video about dark pools and all that good stuff. This chat today is going to be about Ftd's uh and also drsing I think are going to be the main one Matt Did you hate Weeble Yeah, they're involved in payment for order flow, but also there's no way to avoid payment for order flow if you're trading options.

I am not using Weeble whatsoever to trade stocks. Uh, that's exactly what I'm now using Straight Beat for. but Street Beat doesn't have options yet. So I want to trade options where I can find the cheapest place to do it? And as of now, it appears as if Weeble is the there's no commissions.

but if the whole argument is payment for order flow, that's an equity thing. If you're talking about derivatives, you can't avoid payment for order flow. Uh, options are what's referred to as a single dealer Market Which means you're playing always perpetually against options market makers. Um, so the market structure of equities and options are just two different things.

But yeah, I've talked a lot of shit on Weeble and I still kind of Stand by that in terms of equities training. But when it comes to derivatives, that's actually a pretty cool thing that they've been able to pull off if they. if they allow you to trade verticals for free. That's actually kind of like a game-changing type of a deal historically completely against.

Weeble. Uh, did you sell out? Uh what? I'm not sponsored by them or anything. it's just the affiliate deal. Options are not random people.

they are free on. Weeble I Just traded some for today. Uh Samsung where are you getting this information that they're not free? I Literally posted it today like I I posted my own trades today. Um, false.

Uh. options have a charge? No, they don't I don't know where you guys are seeing it, but I mean I literally verified it today. I'm specifically talking about verticals I don't know. Uh I can show you proof I don't think you can because I literally just did it today.

Does public still avoid payment for order flow? Yep, Uh Street vetoes public does Uh Weeble doesn't for and once again, we're talking about payment for order flow. It's specific to equity, so we're not talking about options trading two different markets or not. Maybe because you're promoting it. Uh no.

I created it before I even had it like I went out because someone messaged me that it was free. Uh Jack CF I trade options on Weeble no fees Weeble's commission free. yeah I don't know where people are thinking then uh I don't know where you think like they don't charge fees like yeah I don't know what to tell you but make sure you're using Weeble is the best thing I could say Um, but now the Market's already bouncing back to exactly where it started today. today we opened up at 406 and or no I guess we opened up at 399.49 and the first bar closed at 406 and we are right there.

So today, Surprise surprise. we have done a great job of doing absolutely nothing. uh and just a high volatility whip saw of going nowhere and that's why I chose to not really do any directional bets today. all I did was sell premium.

Sell premium Sell premium. All right I will. That's gonna be it for now. But just so you know we are going to be listening into Gary Gensler Speaking with Dave Lauer at 4 pm ET today so make sure you're checking back YouTube has not been sending out any notifications properly or timely I know Rumble has but I just want to put that out there.

If you're watching this live right now, or even if you're not, just check it out on the channel. it'll be there. Uh, but I'll catch all you live viewers in, uh, just about an hour and a half. I'll see you then.

uh but in the meantime I gotta film some content I Appreciate all the Good Vibes Check out Manscape. They did sponsor today's video code M-a-t-t Matt for 20 off and free shipping I'll catch you cool cats later.