Foreign. Thank you thank you brother Brother! Welcome back for an early stream! We're here way before Power Hour to see what goes on with the market and the Fomc meeting minutes. and then basically because of popular demand, we're just going to stream from now until Market close so we're gonna check out what goes on. Hopefully Rick is reporting it because it's always a good day when our boy Rick Centilli has something to say.

so hopefully our boy Rick is reporting it. We're gonna get the Fomc meeting minutes at 2 P.m ET So in like three minutes and remember, this is not the Fomc meeting, this is the meeting minutes from the Fomc meeting in June So basically we're trying to figure out if there's any surprises within this now. Obviously, if you've been watching the market today, it is like watching paint dry. It is so, so incredibly boring.

and if you ask me, I'm hoping that this will you know make things a bit more exciting if you ask me right now. I'd actually love a massive massive vomit of a sell-off, but let's see what we end up actually getting I Can't promise you anything but fingers crossed I'm still in my Futures position I'm still in my put position so I still have that and I'll go over it with all of you. We can see what's going on. Barn Burner Casey knows what's up Casey's hoping for a barn burner of a day, so that's where we are at Now here's the Spy It popped up, went sideways, sold off a little bit.

but really, it just is effectively sideways once again. Same thing with the cues Nvidia sideways meta sideways. it's just pointing. Everyone is waiting, so nothing too too crazy to get into at least at this moment.

Bitcoin Bouncing a little bit at 30.5 000, you have etholding 1900. I've been watching what's going on in the Futures market right here and it's just it's not much I'm looking at 4475 as the downside. Target I'm looking at like 4495 or like 4 500 flat. On to the upside, so we're just waiting.

we're just waiting. I Do have some other stories we could go over because we're gonna have a little bit of time to, you know, get into other content just in case the market doesn't do anything too crazy. I Do have some other videos and tweets and whatnot prepared for everyone, so hope you guys are crushing it. Hope you're having a good one.

Hope you enjoyed your lunch before you do anything. Do not forget to subscribe and don't forget to hit the like button. Helps out with the algorithm on YouTube helps out with the battle Leaderboard on Rumble and uh, just I appreciate it so just want to say thank you I Want to say thank you for all the efforts you guys put forward to help me out with all that. It's much much appreciated now because we have exactly a minute and 20 seconds left so you have to do this quick.

Please comment what you think's about to happen with the market from 2 P.m until the end of the day. So over the next 120 Minutes the final two training hours of the day. Do you think we're going green? Do you think we're going red? Or do you think we're just going sideways? I Need you to comment relatively quickly just because the information is coming out in less than a minute? So uh, just so you know, we're just above 443? This buys at Four Four Three Thirty So we're gonna say basically: do you think it's above Four Four three? Thirty Do you think it's below 44330 or do you think it's roughly in that region by the time that Bell goes Dingy ding, ding ding uh no thank you. Hit the like.

Very nice. It's a fat rib down. puke. lame.

Um, red to the Moon more green. 448 to the moon. Red red. You guys are split.

You guys are very very much split on this one. Interesting. Well let's see. hopefully it's Rick Fingers crossed for Rick I Don't know.

Hi everybody. Good afternoon and welcome to power lunch alongside Contessa Brewer I'm Tyler Mathison Glad you can be with us from the feds. Uh, rather eventful. Last meeting, the FED chose to pause but hint at the possibility of more hikes to come.

We'll see about that. I Just want some sort of I Just don't First we want to get a check on the markets here, as stocks are lower across the board. Do you see the DOW Industrials off by a third of a percent? The S P 500 is down 0.17 and NASDAQ Composite down about the same. The losses not too big, less than half a burst.

We're really crushing that audio. A bit minutes to the FED meeting show that almost all saw future rate hikes as being appropriate, and some even wanted to hike by 25 basis points. At the June meeting we don't know how many some is, we know it's less than many and it's more than a few. The reason they wanted to hike was because they saw the labor market as tight and they saw a few clear signs that inflation was returning to the two percent.

Target Most said. however, Market Going up a little bit, taking a little bit time, seeing, uh, dealing with the high levels of uncertainty that were out there. Those uncertainties included the lagged effects of monetary policy as well as tighter credit conditions from the banks and what kind of effect that would have on the economy. Almost also, almost all saw inflation risks to the upside: inflation they said was unacceptably high and slowing less rapidly than expected.

An interesting comment here. In the minutes, some saw the effects of higher rates on housing bottoming out. In other words, they had already gotten as much tightening as they're going to get or easing in uh, In the housing market and it was already uh, had already bottomed out. We've seen that in some of the market up 20 cents right now.

A dovish wing to the party there, to the to the Fomc real GDP was seen as resilient but expected to slow. Oh, and there's a couple more here. Consumer spending was stronger than expected. Few a few people were worried though in the committee that the consumers are facing increasingly tighter budget constraints including from less savings.

The labor market machine is very tight, but payrolls were expected to slow. Finally, tighter credit conditions from the banks were likely to weigh on economic activity and in fact, the staff is still four. I Don't see what about this is bullish still I Really don't I don't know why we went up at all on this credit conditions, but in general they see the effects of as uncertain and some even said you know what, it ain't coming back to you guys All right Steve stick around as we welcome Daniel Morris to our conversation for more reaction on the FED minutes and the impact on the markets. Uh, he is Chief Market strategist at BNP Parabol Asset Management joins us from London fake out pop to the upside.

So I don't see what's bullish in this news. You say among other things that the FED is more worried about avoiding a recession than getting inflation back to Target quickly. What makes you feel that way? Well, look, look at what they did at the last meeting. I Mean we know going into the meeting that they were not on target for their inflation projection for this year, let alone when we get back to two percent.

So there's one or two ways you can react respond to that. Either you say you know we're going to make that Target But we're going to hike rates now we're going to do what we said we do or instead they say skip pause whatever you want to to determine and then in addition to that, they just raise the inflation. Target So I think the signal to the market despite what Paul may have said despite what was even in the Dot Plot is that they don't want to risk a recession. they do want that soft landing.

And if that means if they drop the market by a dollar, you know through a base case assumption. Yeah, I Think the the key point is you need to get GDP growth below Trend So 1.75 in the long run, but below 1.75 can be anywhere between zero one point, seven, five, or clearly it can be negative. So it doesn't have to be a recession, it just needs to be below Trend And we think that's it. The odds for us are higher than and so the inverted yield curve is a signal, but not necessarily A definitive signal that a recession is coming.

It's absolutely a signal that growth is going to slow that. That's very clear, and it's just historically. more often than not, you've ended up in the recession, but there's no in a sense inherent economic reason that that has to be the case. You heard uh Steve go through the bullet points there on Earth being unacceptably high.

How do you interpret what we learned from the FED meetings with where they go from here about more hikes to come? Yeah, well, I think I'm gonna have to use a phrase that they've used which is data dependent, but we need to put that in context because I mean the reason. Frankly, we have all been so bad about predictive growth and about predicting inflation is happening. We are honestly in an unprecedented world. It's not just the pandemic, it's the lock.

Global lockdowns. Uh, Global reopenings and trillions and trillions of dollars to stimulus. We've never had that before, so we don't have a model that can can take them into account because it's all new. So hence we've been lousy at forecasting and we can have all the predictions and that we want to have.

but it really is just going to see how it is inflation evolve, what happens with labor market and the FED is really going to have to react to that. Steve Let me bring you back into the conversation and ask whether there's anything in these minutes that we didn't know already. No, but I might give you a the experience of reading them Tyler I Don't know if you've ever covered the courts or something like that where you read a decision by the judge and it reads as if they're going to find him guilty and at the very end, they find him not guilty. These minutes, you'll be doing that often.

The minutes of a committee that was about to hike rates labor: Market's too tight Inflation: no clear science coming down. All of it amounted to or seemed to amount to the case for hiking and yet at the end of the day they decide to wait. I was hoping for some clarity on why they were waiting. I think Daniel has an interesting thesis here I'm not sure 100 Tesla getting knocked thesis that they don't that they're more worried about people looking heavy they're letting on.

but I do the video is starting to look a little heavy. um I think the uh the the groundwork is still strong and I also think Microsoft looking heavy they're going to move on to Amazon looking strong after one morning they're in this perhaps this pattern here of every other meeting they want to get the rate back up I Don't see by the way, much change at all in the probabilities for uh November is the meeting we're looking at. It's still about a 35 chance of a hike and there's still a strong what is it 85 by coming down slightly 20 cents? Not much. Um, I I Do think they are going to hike in July I Think they're going to hike again? Uh, maybe later this year if they don't get big change in the inflation and in the jobs numbers.

So that being said, if there are more hikes to come, where do you see opportunities? Do you still think that there's room in market equities? Or do you think that investors need to look out Right back to 443 What are you thinking of other asset classes or geographies? I Mean certainly we're cautious on the outlook for for the US and and for Europe and in the US Uh, certainly it's with the strong returns we know we've had this year in particular. So we say unbalanced returns so dependent on Tech, we don't feel comfortable with that. So actually we are underweight U.S equities and look into Emerging Markets instead because even if I'm right that it is a Slowdown and not a recession, I Mean it's still a slow down. So that's going to be a drive for equities.

And and so when you're looking at geographies, do you think of Emerging Markets as opportunities? China as an opportunity? Uh, emerging Em Asia in general. and I think there's there's two distinct components in that because I think we appreciate now we're not going to get the spillover that we hope through hope to for China to the rest of the in Asia But if you look at how em has done overall so far this year it's been very tech-led so a lot like the US so it's been Korea it's been Taiwan and we still think that's an opportunity. China We think clearly sentiment not been very helpful so far this year. but the earnings projections at least are quite good.

and if those earnings come through, the markets have got to reflect as you look ahead to 2024, what do you expect? the interest rate picture to be lower or higher for longer dollars still strong if it is patient. Shall we say about getting inflation down quickly? That implies the higher for longer. you know inflation's not going to call Quick fall quickly. So rates but a year from now I think one one way or the other, you're going to have rates lower either.

It's because if we've done nothing so the fake and lower rates or you do get the recession and they cut. So in a sense the fixed income call is a bit the easier one because you really should have lower rates next year. Equity is a bit more challenging. On that note.

Daniel We shall leave it. Thank you very much for your insights. We appreciate it. Steve Lisman thank you as well.

My friend appreciate it. The bullishness. Let's take a look at how those yields are moving After the release of the FED minutes the 10-year yield Rising throughout the day is 3.9 Three percent. Right now you can see uh, the yield on the 10-year Wow.

Two-year yield also Rising higher for most yields up 4.93 percent coming up America is chess match with China continues she meeting with Modi and that's crazy virtual Summit Not long after Biden met with India's leader himself and ahead of Treasury secretary Janet Yellen's upcoming visit to China and boy, that Tech fight between China and the U.S is ramping up with a massively important chip space. Ed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a slower Pace According to the meeting minutes, almost all Federal Reserve Officials at their June meeting indicated further policy tightening is likely if at a slower Pace than rapid fire rate increases that characterized monetary policy. Since 2022, policymakers decided against a rate increase amid concerns over economic growth. even though most members think further hikes are on the way.

probably going to get a 25 bips in Late July specifically July 26th. Citing the lagged impact of policy and other concerns, they saw room to skip the June meeting after enacting 10 straight right increases. Honestly, doesn't make sense because as Steve Leesman alluded to and as we talked about right when the like decision came out, they seemed absurdly hawkish like yeah, no, no, we have to fight this and they're like, okay, we're gonna pause it Officials felt that leaving the target range unchanged at this meeting would allow them more time to assess the economy's progress towards the committee's goal of Maximum Employment and Price Stability Fomc members voice hesitance over a multitude of factors. They said the brief pause would give the committee time to assess the impact of the heights, which have totaled five percentage points the most aggressive since the early 1980s.

What they don't tell you is before that we had the most ridiculous quantitative easing and money printing monetary policy set up. Pretty much known to man, The economy was facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, including higher interest rates for households and businesses, which would likely weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Although the extent of these effects remained uncertained according to the projection materials released after June 13, 14 Session all but two of the 18 participants expected at least one hike would be appropriate this year, and 12 expected two or more. So there's 18.

Two-thirds of them, 12 of the 18 think that we would have two or more, and 16 of the 18 said were at least having one. So there's only two people who are being particularly dovish right now. The participants favoring a 25 basis point increase noted that the labor market remained very tight, momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated, and there was clear few clear signs that inflation was on the path to return to the Committees two percent objective over time. Among those favoring the tightening, there was a general feeling that the pace of hikes, which included four straight 75 percentage points, increases that consecutive meetings will debate as in, like.

Okay, so we're going to keep doing it, but at like less of an aggressive rate, but they're still being hawkish. um I I Don't see why the Spy bounce on this I I don't get this pop I don't get it holding here. if anything I thought this would send us down to 44 440 250. Um, obviously I was freaking wrong on that I I don't get who's buying at this level I I just don't get it I don't get it I don't get him.

who is it I bet it's someone in here which one of the billionaires in chat right now is screwing me over and buying up the Spy rage your hand I'm not going to be angry I'm just going to be disappointed I'm just gonna be disappointed I promise I'm not going to yell at you, but we're going to have a Stern talk. We are definitely going to have a Stern talk with each other. Um, it's all right I'm not going to be mad. Whoever it is in here, you can tell me I promise I won't be mad but I know it's one of you and I'm going to find you I will I will find you Ah major charms.

What is that name? Germs germs. Well, we all know it's charms in here I Appreciate the honesty I Do I do I do well I guess I'm just gonna set up an alert. We're either waiting for the breakdown of 442.75 or the breakout of Four Four Three Fifty. And until then, let's play the game of what can Matt find on the internet I did find this Harvard Legacy Admissions targeted by Massachusetts Lawmakers Fees on schools with big endowments to fund community colleges universities face increasing challenges to Legacy Policies Well, legacies are kind of dumb and so is affirmative action.

A bill of Massachusetts seeks to tax Rich colleges that favor families of alumni and donors and admission policies namely Harvard University and give the money to poorer community colleges. The legislation targets Harvard Williams College and a half dozen other schools that use preferences for students whose parents attended the college called legacies and meet a threshold of current endowment value per student Cambridge based Harvard the richest U.S College with 50.1 billion Harvard has 50 billion dollars, would be assessed an estimated 103 million a year. the largest fee according to the sponsors. Harvard has 50 billion dollars and they have the balls to charge people tuition.

That is a crime. The measure is another. Salvo In the attack on the admission policies of universities last week, the conservative majority of the U.S Supreme Court effectively shut down race-based affirmative action. Then on Monday Harvard was accused by minority groups violating Federal law by giving preferential treatment in the admissions process to Children of alumni and Wealthy donors.

I Agree. Get rid of them both. This Legacy thing that's dumb. This racing.

that's dumb. Like 50 billion? sorry I Didn't realize they're in I knew they had the largest endowment I Didn't realize it was 50 freaking billion dollars. That's ridiculous. That's so so, so much money.

What do we have here? The U.S Middle classes economy anxiety will decide the 2024 election. I Don't really want to get into this? Uh, like it's just long. It's a good read. I recommend that everyone kind of check it out.

but uh. I'm kind of more interested in discussing with you this idea of single issue voting. Sometimes people vote on whatever. Maybe a religious opinion? Maybe it's an environmental stance? maybe something like that.

So in here, like out of just my own curiosity to learn more about my audience when it comes to the 2024 election, Will you be both voting based on who you think will handle the economy better? Uh, and maybe it's not your single issue. but is it like a top one, two or three issue like I'm trying to understand? Will you be casting a vote based on whoever you think will handle the economy better based on your definition of it? However you view like yeah, I think this is a better way to do it Like and I'm I Guess we're not necessarily here to argue who will handle it better I'm just asking you. Is that at least the the major thing you're voting on? or like a top two thing that you're voting on? Um Harvard smells interesting? There goes the market. Oh shit, it's by dropping 100 map Focus No, Yes Megan A it's dumping.

Holy Sqq. Yes, Yes Yes Yep. Market moving spy dropping. Maybe we should look at this.

Fuck yes. I Told you that made sense. All right now let's look at my positions. All right.

So here's my positions: full monitor. Uh, as you can see I have 300 444 July 10th puts currently up 13.5 I'm in at 85 they're trading at 96. I think my first scale out order is at 105. I'm also noticing that with Weeble it's having a real tough time uploading or like updating expediently today.

But anyway, just above Break Even I'm in at 85 they're trading at 92 which um with the size I played is a nice 2.5 k return. And in terms of my Futures positions, I've been holding that one that you saw from like stream this morning. Uh, I told you that the pop didn't really make sense. Um I'm up 700 right here 725 I'm short at eight six I'm short at the yellow line 86.25 I'm targeting um this at 4470 just because I see some support there and it'll also bring me green on the day to the tune of like 500 to 600.

So I would love if that could get that filled there. So basically I have some degenerate puts and I also have this Futures position. All right. Where are we at? Where are we at? Uh, we're bouncing right off that and this is why we have support.

I Got to be careful here just because we're looking heavy right now. That's not really. um, confirmation of anything because over the past whatever month we've been seeing these brutal stop-loss liquidity grabs. I am betting you that there are many, many people who are long on the Spy, especially on this day trading basis.

We're on the swing trading basers who just use 442 73, 75, 70. Something very close to here is this stop and look at that. They ran it right below the Stop and it bounces right out now. Obviously I'm hoping that the bounce doesn't hold because you just saw my net like bear position on the market.

But time and time and time again, we've been seeing this. It's just liquidity grabs. To the upside, they did one right at like we have this breakout right here at four four three forty, they pop it right back up, smack it right down, then right here they run to the downside and bring it right back up. It's just this like brutal rubber band tactic that has always been a parent in the market.

but I I wish I had the exact numbers right in front of me. I Would bet any amount of money that that almost like elastic mean reversion would really be the term you want to use here. That mean reversion after like a kind of a in overshoot in the bullish direction or an overshoot in the bearish direction. That mean reversion the rubber banding back just it seems to become more and more apparent every single day.

Why did you choose to sell what? I still have my position? Uh, can someone tell me what a liquidity grab is Abby Like when I say that and maybe there's various definitions I mean these types of things where Okay um I think I could show it better here and I'll show it better here. Let me get rid of these lines just because I think it'll So what I'm saying is right here. pretty evident Resistance: smack smack smack smack smack smack. So you know what they do is they know people are buying this breakout and they also know shorts are going to be using that as a risk of like okay, we just don't want it above like four four three.

You know what they do is they run it above it. Stop all those people out so they entice buyers in. They're like oh it's breaking out. we should buy it and they also screw over the shorts who are using this as their stop and then.

So they screw all those people over the Bulls who are late to the party and the Bears who stop isn't like it's a little too close so they screw over both of those and then they dump the market. So basically this is uh, you're gonna have like some buy stop like a liquidity run right here, a bicep and then they smash those people. and I'm saying at first right here. um we could probably see it a little bit better on the one minute.

That's kind of what they did right here. Maybe it's not going to play out for like the full day and I kind of hope it doesn't but this right. this little Wick right here that you see they run it all the way down. they run it just under where like these key levels are and the key level that I'm referring to in this scenario is right here.

there was probably many. Why is this not working I need to turn the magnet on this low right here. If you look at the low at whatever this is 12 35 it's 442.73 they run it right under it and then they popped it right back up. Uh so basically the Bulls who were watching that well right here they got screwed over and they pop it back out and the maybe the shorts who chased it.

they got screwed at first and it does seem seem as if in real time it's still a little bit heavy. but uh, it seems like it's happening in both directions more and More and more these overshoots of highs that get smacked and these overshoots of lows that get bounce. and I think it's just because obviously a lot of the market is still driven by humans. I think there's a lot of humans are looking at support and resistance and they're putting their stops just above or just below and the Market's running to like stomp those people out and then it reverts to where they want it anyway.

Um, so that's how I'm kind of using it and most people are going to be using it in like somewhat of a related sense like I don't think that's like the most wild definition or anything like that, but uh, please, if there's any questions, let me know. All right, we're gonna move this down here because I don't want to get screwed and I just want to sell off to continue. Remember on ES right here this guy. I'm looking to take some profits at Four Four seventy Right here Four Four seventy.

Uh. would love for it and looks like we're going down. Looks like we might be going down Meadow which was strong all day today, finally taking a little bit of a turn. Same with Nvidia They've just been incredibly incredibly strong and we're finally going down finally going down.

Uh, like I said uh uh orders I just didn't get a fill. unfortunately I have an order right here at 106 to sell a third of my position I have 300 puts I'm attempting to sell a hundred of them and it's just I don't know what's happening, but here's the order. I mean you can see I placed it a while ago uh is Weeble just messing up for people today I don't understand what's going on. It's trading at 105 by 106.

oh no, it was just I was just unfortunately just did not get that fill. it was just me I I was the person sitting on the ask and it just I just I guess I was unlucky. Well that's a bit of a bummer. That's a bit of a bummer.

but anyway. uh yeah. I'm trying to scale out I'm in at 85 up just over 4K just under 5K uh, trying to scale out trying to get out of a third of the position at 106. uh.

I'm gonna be absurdly angry if it literally got up and I just did not get my fill. That's not even a takeaway that's at your ticket. You're just potentially unfortunate. the unfortunate person who was not in the front of the queue.

Well, that's a bit of a bummer. Well, let's hope. let's hope this keeps coming down. That sucks.

I mean I'm still feeling confident just because the cues are holding their breakdown and videos looking a bit heavy. Um, even Meta's turning Apple just made a fresh low like I'm still confident but that just, um, that's a bummer. That's a bummer. That's Weeble's annoying today.

I've noticed that my Weeble today the bid and the ask are not updating I almost have to keep doing a a data reload. why would you use the stop if you're hedging your position I don't know if that was necessarily targeted towards me. Are you talking with someone else? Don't get stuck on a number? um well the way I computed it was 20 cents I was like I computed that very intentionally I wasn't just um I didn't like randomly pick 106. it was a percentage gain.

um, taking some of the fees into account and then basically the idea was that should hit and then I'm happy with that gain and then the leftover chunk of it I could just set it to break even like a a cent above break even and then I should be good. but uh, definitely noticing some like weird Tech problems today with Weeble XLF Okay, XLE um honestly it's been the finance sector that's been keeping the world up a little bit. and by the world I mean the S P 500 my Futures uh, currently up a thousand on that, but I'm also down a thousand on the day. So my Futures even though you're seeing it as being up I want to clarify it's not as good as it actually looks because uh, if you're watching the morning stream, you saw me get stomped out on two different trades.

So uh, basically my close P. L right now is 1033 and my open position is worth 950. speaking of which, when it's being worth that much, no way am I losing money on it. So I'm putting my stop loss to just a tick above I Like refuse to lose money on it.

Uh, but this is what I'm going for. you can see my target. Uh, and then in terms of this, down to 102 man I got so close to getting my fill it just didn't give it to me. Frustrating.

Very, very frustrating. I've been watching over the lunch period I was watching XLF This is what tracks the financial sector like in the Spider, The Standard, and Poor's um, and really, it's the over performance of the financial sector today that it feels like keeping the spy from vomiting. Uh, Speaking of that, the spies down 0.26 today and the cues are down point one six percent today so they were both in the green. The queues definitely were and then they kind of came off into lunch.

In lunch, it was boring, it was sideways, and now we're just kind of I don't know. we're trying to see what this reaction will be and I'm just praying that this isn't that liquidity grab. praying praying praying. I mean look at this, this resistance and also the breakout here.

So we saw this resistance at roughly 6 45 in the morning on the and it perfectly tagged it Uh, this was the high was 7, 5, 25 and look at this, the low was 75. So it was a quarter of a point off from Perfection. Uh so this resistance which led to a breakout Zone the retet like they're kind of retouched it, then it just ripped. We'll look at this, came right back down to it and bounced off of it.

Um so obviously you have some dip buyers stepping in. I'm hoping they get crushed like like I was alluding to all of you. You know my zone is right here at Four Four Seventy. I was basically looking at this.

Support this resistance, this support. That's why I'm like targeting. this level does seem to be pretty important, but who knows. Maybe it's just not my lucky day.

Maybe this is as low as we're gonna get. Obviously I'm going to monitor it I mean I'm up money and I like to not let it go against me. Uh, just following up from that Sunny Pens video. This is something that you need to pay for.

Correct, it's not open source. No, she made it herself. It's like on her membership website and everything like it's her own design thing. Like you'll know from the interview those bands.

uh the green or excuse me, the purple and the golden bands. She spent a year and a half working 12 hours a day to create those like she's a mathematician and she like designed the math behind it. I Don't think people are gonna spend that much of their life doing something and then just give it away I mean at least I wouldn't Maybe there's other people out there who are, uh, like I don't know. Maybe they just view it to be a little bit different, but that's a that's a huge like it's part of her life's work.

Uh, don't you expect a gap filled down to four, three, eight, two eight eventually? the question is uh, when whenever I look at the overall Market If we're talking about the Spy or the cues or anything like that I fully expect all the gaps to be filled given enough time. So like do I expect Four Three Eight Two Eight on the Spy to get Gap build Yes, fully. It's just a question of when apparently it's not going to happen today. Uh, I mean I guess it could if we have like an insane close.

but I just um, a bigger question is like timing is just so incredibly important. You could be spot on with your thesis this that the other thing but if you're off by an hour a day a week, it could just make it. That could be the difference between you having like a profitable trade and just losing money on the trade. Rivian Fire Emoji Well Rivian crush it with its earnings or excuse me production and uh, delivery numbers.

Uh, look at that though. Rivian got its downside gaffle. today. it opened up at 2071, but on Monday it closed.

Uh, or it had a high. Yeah, we'll do the high of 1970. Um, so obviously a dollar downside. Gapville.

And actually Rivin has another gaffle down to 16.75. how's Tesla looking right now? Tesla uh. Inside the bar, if you look at the daily chart, the high is below the high and the low is above the previous low. So when the high is lower and the low is higher, it's an inside bar.

The bar is fully within the bar of the previous one. That's indicative of a non-trend day. Uh, I Know, if you're looking at the intraday basis, you're like, whoa, No, we got this. We got that.

Yeah, Okay, that's that's true. But for anyone who's a time frame larger than day trading, all you can functionally say is that Tesla really didn't do much if Tesla ends up breaking down below 275 11. That does open up the interesting opportunity of a Gap filter to 264.45 So maybe if you want to set an alert here, Uh, once again, below the low from Monday to 75 11 That there's prob. there's this untested area between 275 11 and 264.45 and this is called a Gap.

There's a literal Gap this area. We skipped over an entire range. and so it's an area where the supply and demand is untested. We just literally skipped it.

And for whatever reason, markets seem to have a bias towards testing those untested areas. I Like which is a roundabout way to saying yeah, no. a lot of times playing a gap fill play, it could be advantageous. now.

Obviously, depending on what you're looking at, what you're not looking at, there are different odds associated with it. So for example, the odds of a spy like filling its Gap The first day is different than Tesla on the first day is different than Apple on the first day. and then obviously the odds change as you look at different time frames. So you could ask yourself and like this is all testable of.

And also you could look at the size of the Gap. There's a lot of interesting mathematical ways to break it down. Be like, okay, if the Gap is under one percent, what's the chance of it being filled with in a Day within a week within a month, then you could do it with different size gaps and also different time frames. And then you could cross that against different equities or ETFs or futures or whatever you want.

But there's various ways to look at it. Uh, does anyone know what the Fomc data was? Uh, we went over it all, so you might just want to rewind. I I Don't think there's anything too surprising. Basically, we just know that yes, the Fed and their view on monetary policy is still currently very hawkish.

as much as the market appears to be like trying to call the bluff of the market, the FED is not showing signs of backing down. which I still just find to be. uh, crazy because look at the market. Look at this.

this right here. This low was from October of 22 and then really, we started ripping right here in March of 23.. So we ripped had a little bit of a pullback, but still continually put in higher low, higher low, higher low, higher low, higher low, higher low higher low. It's been non-stop since Thursday October 13th, October 13th.

We had a gap down, but it was a huge push and we've just been ripping ever since. It is just not slowing down. And yeah, if you ask me, especially like when we're not that far off from all-time highs, where are we? I want to go to the weekly? Here we go. so we're currently at 442.85 The all-time high is basically 480.

So if we looked at that, that's eight percent away. 8.4 percent away. Let's round it to 8.5 Why not? Just easier to say: do we really feel as if the economy is only 8.5 percent away from the best it's ever been? I would argue that the answer to that is obviously a resounding no. But then that's a very good reminder that even though they're very interrelated, the economy and the stock market, they are still in fact two distinct things.

and I think it's easy to on a general basis forget that I think it's actually very, very easy. Uh, to forget that of yes, they're gonna be correlated, but they're not always the same thing. I Mean we made a We made an all-time high when the world was locked up. Well, that doesn't make sense.

This was in January of 22. we had a huge rip and just kept going and going and going when most of the world was still shut down. So right there. that kind of shows you that yeah, no, it doesn't always make sense.

Like of course there's going to be correlation, but sometimes there are seemingly considerable mispricings and uh, disconnections. Then we could get into, like more of a philosophical discussion of why that happens. But I think the easiest way to actually sum it all up is a reminder that obviously the market is a forward-looking organism. as in, it's projecting where things are about to go.

It's not a measure of where things are in real time. So if the thought if the market as an entity, if the majority of it believes that the Fed's done and we've taken care of inflation, it's going to run because it it's it's It's forward-looking all the time. It's not like looking at like okay, well, this is where we are, so it's like a fair value. It's always forward-looking which is incredibly important to remember.

Incredibly important to remember. S P 500pe is too high. It is like to buy a small Countryside house for 10 million. At these levels, it's too high.

But that doesn't mean it can't get higher. I Mean that happens all the time. Like the people who argue, oh no, it's too high. Like blah blah blah.

they were the same people who were calling that out about Nvidia Roughly in here they're like wow, when Nvidia is trading between 260 and 280, Everything you were reading was how it was like overvalued and its PE or issue. It was incredible and it has to come down. It's fundamentally not sound. Why is anyone trading Nvidia at these levels? And guess what? instead of stopping at 260 to 280, it's now trading at 426.

they were off by a hundred and fifty dollars and it's still showing serious strength. So yes, Do I agree that things are overvalued? Okay, great. Uh, you and I agree on that. So that just means I'm not investing at these levels I'm not going to invest when I think things are egregiously overvalued.

But that's when you have to remember day trading, Swing, trading, and investing are all completely different things. And when you're doing any of those, when you're engaging in any of those activities, you need to be taking in the appropriate data set to be making your prediction. So like right here. If you're looking at it and you're like, oh man, the Spy is overvalued.

well, there are still people in here I would bet that played spy calls all morning for the first hour and a half and made a crap load of money and it popped from 442 all the way up to almost 444. pop two dollars so just even there I can sit here and tell you yes I Think from a fundamental perspective, many things in the S P 500 are overvalued and yet it did not stop it from actually getting a beautiful nice upside. Gap full and rip even higher. It happens all of the time, all the time so you can't.

You don't want to fuck this bounce sucks I was looking good I was feeling good I'm gonna get so frustrated I'm back to break even right now and unfortunately this is where I meant to have it. Um, this is what I'm talking about with my put position I meant to sell a third of that position and then I was going to move the other 200 up to this level because I was going to be happy with the gain and then whatever if it came back like this. I didn't feel like risking any money so effectively I should have been out of a third of my position locked in at 106, gaining 20 cents so basically gaining 2K and then I'd be stopped out right now out of the rest before I risk any money. but I just didn't get my fill.

it was incredibly close and I don't know what's going on with Weeble but it's taking forever to upload today. Um, like there's been times where I have to come over here look at the bid in the ass and it's just wildly different than the bid, the ask and the last price I like I'm have I don't know if anyone else is having issues, but uh, getting definitely screwed over. Definitely, definitely definitely screwed over a little bit here. Um, but not particular with the fill with the fill I think I just got unlucky I think I was just I Think there just wasn't enough of demand at that level to get me out of my position.

and it's frustrating knowing you were right at that level, that someone else was getting their fill there and then you just weren't. Uh, very, very frustrating. But that's um, that's the name of the game. that's definitely the name again.

Uh, very stoked about this plummet that you guys were like go dude. look at the market. But look at this. that this liquidity grab is what we've been talking about and it's so brutal in the market every freaking day they shoot it right below.

I Mean this one's a better example of it because it kind of occurred over 10 ish minutes. Um, but I mean I Is there a more glaring example? Look at this right? here. Here's the it puts in a low at 12 35 they run the market down. There are going to be sure to enter in on the perceived breakdown and there's going to be Longs who are using that as their stop.

So those Longs get screwed over and I'm saying they're screwed over because look at they dip it in, they get stopped out and then the market pops and then the shorts who chased it. Well they're getting punished because you should never be chasing. So at first they felt good and then it pops up anyway. So both the long the Longs who have the short or I guess their stop loss too close and then the shorts who are chasing both groups are getting screwed and it's just this is happening day over day over day.

I mean I Feel like over the past two to four to six weeks there's been multiple examples of it on Major ETFs every single day, every single day. Uh, Bear trap. What's my point is that it's a it's a trap on all sides because they did it right here. It's a bear trap and a bull trap.

What do you think? This was right here. It's the exact same thing. This is the exact same thing. So they did a two.

they did it again at 220. they're just. it's called whipsaw. Uh When you it's from a technical perspective.

it's referred to as a broadening formation. When you have higher highs and lower lows you're making a like kind of a like Magnaphone megaphone. Like it's broadening, you get higher highs and lower lows. It's Whipsaw and it's I Would argue the most difficult environment to do anything.

Uh, just because everyone's getting whipped out, you're taking on larger risk. It's frustrating. Like all of it is just ass. It's ass.

It's ass. It's ass. What is this? Um so I Am hoping that it gets smashed here, but we are pretty much just up to this level that we were at before here. I'll move this level down.

Um, frustrating environment. But not every trading day is going to be a good trading day. I Mean we're not always going to get these days where it's just like a beautiful Trend and you just ride it all day and it's easy money. Those I think what's the exact step in the realm of 70 of trading days are just like chop.

like, not a nice tradable. Trend Um, so things like this. Unfortunately, this is actually par. For course.

It's more of a rarity of like Friday of last week when we kind of rip and it consolidates and it keeps ripping. Those big movement days are statistically abnormal. They're abnormal. Most days are like this where you're just getting like whipped up down in between and just getting your teeth kicked in.

Uh uh, it is. What is this one has been paid? Okay Matt Just pick good tech stocks and do long swings. Um I Don't think that's always the environment. I mean that works when Tech's working.

Just pick good tech stocks and do long swings. Uh, once again, it depends on the environment that's worked from March until now and arguably from like October till now. But there was a little bit of a drawdown. uh, kind of like at the start of the year.

But I mean if that's always it. If that's like exclusively your strategy, you would need filters on top of that to not blow up because obviously there are serious pullbacks within the world of tech. So if like, you have to know the environment you're in and right now, um, I I haven't been trading that strategy. So to start now you have to ask yourself, is it reasonable to start that strategy at this point and obviously no one knows the future.

but I'm not going to start going long on Tech swings when in half a year, the queues have ripped from 260 to 370. no way would I start that now. Maybe there was an argument in here. You're like, well, hang on, it's a breakout, It's a retest and we're starting to pick back up.

Maybe this is the most recent time to have pulled it off like in April to kind of get into it or maybe this trend line bouncing you're like oh, it's right in the trend line. But to start it now when like I just haven't been trading that strategy when the queues are up 42 in half a year? No. I mean inherently and it could keep going for all I know maybe in a month or two we're going to be talking about the cues above 400. I Don't know.

but I can tell you. just think about it this way. inherently, the longer a trend runs, the closer it is for the trend being over. So I I can't It's a game of hot potato and I I just I don't know when it's gonna go to I like it literally could be ending right now in front of like this.

this might be it. Maybe maybe by the end of today. Maybe this week? Maybe the cues get absolutely cracked. Maybe we have a slew of bad earnings and Apple misses Microsoft misses and just meta Google Amazon Oh miss miss miss miss and this might be it.

And it like bends back over and just sells and sells and sells. Or the exact opposite could happen. They could absolutely crush it. They could absolutely crush it and it could keep ripping.

but it's always inherently going to be risk reward, especially when you're talking about swings. I Honestly think swing trading is even easier because you're dealing with a larger and I I mean a larger time frame data set so you don't have to be like making like decisions within like sub one minute. You could like wait for the charts to load at night and place your trades early in the morning and just check it at the end of the day. Um, among other things I think also when you're talking about swing trading that there's less Randomness involved.

but whoever suggested that I think it was Steve uh I I would not start that strategy. Yeah brother. Uh so I just got out for uh, just above break even on Futures I Just got that fill on this bounce back. This is an insane bounce back.

that's crazy. uh so didn't want to lose money on that and that's why I put the stop in there. But look at this liquidity. grabbed.

to the upside, they screw over the Bulls liquidity to grab To the downside, they screw over the Bears and then they. it's just a trap. It's a bull trap bear trap. and I don't know this might be another trap right here on this bounce back up.

I Mean your guess is as good as mine. All I can tell you is that in all of these scenarios, the only thing you can reasonably do is manage your risk and your reward. That's all we could do. You never know what the next bar is going to be.

You can hope that the next bar is going to be something you can. But I mean I'm going to tell you this now the most bars within a trading day. Like no matter what time frame you're on. most trading bars, uh, have a normal distribution and without getting like too nerdy here with all the math.

Um, for those of you who like a Gaussian distribution, it's normally distributed. As in it's about a 50 50 chance of every single bar of what it's going to be red or green. So I mean inherently the more something moves, well you're like, well, if that's 50 chance, that's 50, that's 50. That's 50.

that's 50. it's almost like the same. The same. like what are the odds of having whatever five boys in a row? Well, the first one's 50 but then to have two boys that's 25, then it's 12.5 Then it's 6.25 Then it's what.

three point, whatever. Uh, so it just keeps getting cut and cut and cut. um by 50 every single time. But even with that being said, that's why when you see these big moves, when I tell you like something rips all day, that's statistically rare.

That's why it's statistically rare like you, you just don't see them much. I Mean there have been people who've done extensive, extensive studies on like what the average market movement is and it really kind of adds up to just basically being neutral. Basically being neutral. Uh, to be fair, that was an insane flesh to begin with.

Um I Actually think this pop is more insane than the flesh? The flush makes sense to me thinking about what just happened with. the Fomc meeting minutes like on I Well really what I thought was the most insane was this initial. Pop I Don't know who was interpreting the news at two to be like oh, this is bullish and we should be buying So when it flushed, that made sense to me. but it seemed as as of right now that this flush was a little bit of a dirty trick.

because we flushed, we broke down below the previous low. It held out there for a couple minutes but they like kind of the the price action popped back up and it just built up some momentum and this is just a brutal V-shaped recovery. Brutal. Brutal Brutal.

Absolutely brutal if you caught a piece of it. Massive. Congrats to you. Uh, Massive Massive.

Massive. Congrats: 66 of the time Works every time. Hawkish Dovish. The meeting minutes were definitely severely hawkish.

I Mean what was it? 16 of the 18 Fomc members think we're getting at least one more rate hike. 12 of the 18 think we're getting two more. so they're just. it's as hawkish as it could be.

1348 Strat is a great cheat code I think it's fine I don't think it's a cheat code to trading I think it's a basic EMA Crossover with a couple filters like it's fine I'm a big fan of systematic trading so I inherently like it because it's teaching people to have a clear set of Entry rules and a clear set of exit rules which I'm always going to be a fan of. Um, but 1348 is not the optimized EMA crossover strategy If you look at the past year of data, the past three years of data, the past five years of data, the past decade of data or data going all the way back to 2005, and I did the test on the Spy the cues, and Bitcoin on those three. Uh, 1348 is not the optimal Uh EMA crossover. Why didn't you took advantage of the liquidity gram? I Mean things don't appear to be a liquidity grab until it's done.

See, That's the tough thing is when people do this technical analysis and they talk about liquidity grabs and everything, it's always hindsight bias. It's always Monday morning quarterbacking. It's always after the bounce at this moment. right here.

If I just showed you this in the top left of your screen when the Spy broke below 44273 If I just showed you this, how do you know that the liquidity to grab and not a legitimate sell-off you don't know. And people when they're doing technical analysis, they wait for whatever that time frame to be over and then they highlight it and they're like look it, liquidity grab It bounces right out. We should have all been buying here, but my point is, how do you know it's a liquidity grab? You don't know. The very next bar could have been a continuation in the sell-off without a doubt.

So I I think sometimes people and I understand it. Um, you almost get hard on yourself because the way it's presented when people are trying to teach it and talk about it, they make it seem so simple. but understanding the that speaking that like Monday Morning Quarterback Like framework and mindset is wildly different than doing it in real time. in real time when we were all sitting here at 2 20.

Here let's switch it to the one minute when we were all looking at this right here. let's just say that this was all played out. What was the indication that it was a liquidity grab there? There is no indication. and like, see, that's the brutal thing of when these people are trying to teach it and sell their course and talk about how they're like the best fucking Trader ever and blah blah blah like.

sign up for this. Sign up for that. No one knows I'm I'm letting you know the secret right now. The secret is that everyone is pretty much full of bullshit all of the time.

and the people who win in this game are just the people who when they're taking those 50 50 setups, they understand risk versus reward. That that's all it is. You keep your risk reasonably close and your reward is ideally much farther away, and you're hoping to hit with as high as accuracy as possible. but right here in real time.

I Don't think that like maybe I mean it's not the most fair thing. Let's look at the volume. There are some indicators, but even this, this sell-off was pretty hard. uh the volume.

It was increased so like maybe not the most volume confirmation, but there was some volume confirmation. So if anything this started to look more of a like a legitimate breakdown than a breakout. because look at the volume we're spiking, we're spiking more of the market is agreeing that like okay yep the sell-off makes sense. this makes sense.

and then what's odd is actually this pop in the market is a low volume Pop Um so if anything this if if we were just doing a super basic volume analysis of this I actually think the sell-off is quote unquote more legitimate than the pop because look at there you just don't have as much volume supporting it. less of the market is agreeing on this popping like I don't know appropriate but that's just obviously kind of doesn't matter because that's the difference of the price action. like uh, whether it's if you have your stops. Whether to the upside or to the downside, a lot of the times people aren't taking volume into account, they just care about the price action going above it.

even use my future trades as an example. That position Okay, the position was basically saying as soon as it gets up here, if it does stop me out, if not, there's a profit. It didn't really matter that this is a low volume push and it happens. It happens.

It happens. Uh, uh, how much can it affect gold? How much can what affect gold? The secret sauce is selling premium. Well selling premium if people understand what the math of selling premium is. So in the long run, selling premium is a great strategy if you properly understand Greek values.

but there's a lot of retail traders who by no means understand Greek values and risk management I mean options. It's interesting if you understand the math. one of the best things you could do is be a premium seller, but that's also a big if you have to know the math of it and it's a little complicated. it's one of those things that at first it seems daunting, but as soon as you get over the learning curve like you're gonna be like why did I never understand this It's a really weird thing.

like when you finally understand options. um, if you're watching this right now, like listening to me, Trust me, every person who's ever traded options goes through that thing where at first you're like dude, this is like another language to me I Don't get it at all I'm confused I'm never gonna get it. What are these Greeks What's Delta What's Gamma? What's Vega What's an iron Condor Why are you breaking a wing off a butterfly? It's really, really daunting at first and it's weird because by the time you get over that learning curve and you kind of look at it, you're like I think we all have this like weird mental development. We're like, why do we not understand that earlier So if you're in that situation right now where you're attempting to learn options and you're like dude, this is just not sticking I Just don't get it, just keep going along because I think we all have that experience.

We're like dude, it's weird. You get to the other side of it and your biggest question is, why did you not understand it earlier? It's just like one of these days something in your brain is going to snap in a good way and like it's gonna snap together like your neurons aren't going to make a new pathway and it'll make like a much more sense. Much more sense to you foreign bot account doing. Didn't you start one of those? Yeah, it's doing well.

it's on. Street Pete Speaking of which, Street Beat is the sponsor of today's stream. Sign up for it. It's pinned to the top of chat, it's in the description of the video.

or you could just download the app. uh, whether it's your iPhone or your Android Uh, When you're signing up very first page, put in the code Matt and you will get a 30-day free trial If you want to read more about it. Uh, once again pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video, just download the app. The app is free to download.

Yes, you can buy and sell stock how you normally would, but if you want to use AI Generated Strategies AKA AI Copilot Street Fleet will 100 allow you to do it and you can get a one month trial by just putting in the code Matt So free to download free one month trial. you have absolutely nothing to lose and you can see if it's appropriate for you. and I have a feeling as soon as you get messing around with it I think you're really really gonna like it I've had a blast using it I've had a blast using it. Look at Liquidity.

Grab to the upside. Liquidity grabbed to the downside and now another one to the upside. this is. this is the brutal game of the markets.

People get whipsawed all of the time. Um, Brutal Brutal Brutal Brutal. Any recommendations for learning all that with options? Uh, it depends the level you're at. I Mean if you're a novice like there's a lot of free things on YouTube I mean I even have a trading Essentials playlist that you could check out.

Uh, and if you're at more of an advanced level, there are some pretty good courses that people have made. Uh, that? I I Don't know. the fees off the top of my head, but targeting um, people who already have like a solid basis. it depends on where you're at.

um, if you're new, it new to it and you're like dude I just need someone to explain what Greeks are and how they work and this that and the other thing I mean I even have it up for free right now. you can check it out. Um, there is really good inter um, education and entertainment over at Tastytrade. I'm in no way associated with them I'm in no way affiliated with them, but I'm just calling them out because they're the people who taught me quite a bit about options.

I Remember at this point almost a decade ago when I first found their content. Um, it's a little dry, but it's spot on. It's very, very good. So Tastytrade.

There a lot of their content is free. Um, actually in the whole world of trading and finance and investing and all that stuff, there's a lot of great free content out there, so it's more up to you and your curiosity and your ability to like seek it out. Uh, options? Alpha has learning tracks Uh, I learned a little bit from them, but by the time I found options Alpha I was already pretty much done with Tastytrade, so I didn't really need much from them. but I've heard good things um I just haven't personally used them.

but I have heard good things. but I just want to be I guess straightforward with it I've um, like I said I don't know when was that Circa 2015, 2016, maybe 2016 2017 when I went really into tastytrade, consumed all of their content and it was after that that I was like oh, what's this options Alpha thing if I could change my name, it would be Whips On I mean that's what the market is notorious for doing. So it as soon as you realize that what's the big takeaway So it's one thing for me to sit here and be like, oh, like the market whips us all the time because look at like a fake punch to the upside, a fake breakdown to the bottom side like what the fuck the question is like how is that like a tradable thing And the lesson there is. First of all, you might have to have wider stops in either direction than like, maybe seemingly like at first because like, there are fake out breakdowns and fake out breakdowns.

So now if you're having wider stops than expected, that means that whatever amount you're gonna bet, you should probably be sizing down sizing down because if you're widening your stops, you're taking on more risk. And for the magnitude that risk to be the same appropriate thing for your account size, you need to be betting less. Um, a lot of the times. A lot of the times one of the best things you can do like I mean from so many people that I've talked to like now at this point, thousands and thousands of retail Traders I Think one of the best things people can do is just size down I I Honestly think too many people are taking on, um, bet sizes that they don't realize mathematically how it inappropriate it is for your account size.

Um, if you want to like, read more into the math of proper bet sizing. A decent place to start is Kelly Criterion Um Google That and it just talks about it. and a lot of it boils down to basically you should never really be risking more than two percent of your account on any trade. So let's say, um, two percent of your account.

So I don't know. li