Oh well. Howdy Dood Dand Howdy Dood dandle Uh hello there well hello Buenos Nachos Migos happy Halloween uh Happy Tuesday October 31st What's up Cat? Not much sh good morning to you brother. The shanon crap face have to kill me first. Fuji Good morning, Good morning, good morning Man oh man do we have a lot to talk about today.

Do you guys know what today is on? the fact that it is? Tuesday October 31st It also happens to be the start of Fomc loving it already. Jones FX I've been loving you for a long time for a long long time. It's not just starting now. My love for you is unwavering.

That's how we do it here on the Catm show. Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. Feels like the market might go a little green today. feels I feel it down in my loins I feel it deep deep in my loins that we're in for a nice bullish.

Green Day Uh, that's just my vibe on the situation. but that's what I'm feeling. it feels like it might be a green green bullish day 50% of the time I'm right 100% of the time. but that's my vote on the day.

Uh, that's that's that's how I'm just something about it I asked the magic dat ball I referenced my deep deep loins and both of them told me today is a bullish day. we're going to see how it's going to go. We're calling it out now. we're doing it live because no one likes a Monday Morning Quarterback in this situation.

And before we get into the price breakdown, before we get into the technical breakdown, before we get into the macro news earning seasonality breakdown Everyone right now, if you have fingers at most, at minimum, you need one at most I Hope you have 10, but we'll even allow it up to maybe 12. But if you're within that range of fingers, if you have between 1 and 12 fingers, use them right now to go to your keyboard and let me know if you're feeling bullish or bearish on the day because I need to decide if I'm going to ride with you guys today or if we're going to be adversaries. Is it going to be spooky? Is there going to be a little Bloodshed in the chat in itself? Uh I don't have a keyboard build back broker? Uh well. go buy one.

Go out right now to your local Walmart Best Buy technology store and go buy a keyboard bully and Berry orange Jad Is that a Bitcoin thing or is it a pumpkin thing? Is that how Bitcoin got its colors is from Halloween Bullish Bullish with Tesla bull Tesla's just getting destroyed right now because of the Panasonic report. uh, less desire for E batteries bloody red How bloodbath bully I don't have any hands Marco Go fix that hey broke cat. Hey that's not nice. Bullish with my 12 fingers.

Bearish bearish. We have some All right. Well I'm on the side of the Bulls in here today. Uh, that's just how I'm feeling I I Went ahead in the future and I could tell you everything that's going on that you need to know.

but the only thing I'm willing to report to you that I have it on good, good authority from future Matt that today is going to be a green day. Um, let's see if he's lying to us. Let's see if he's telling us the truth I mean we've we've seen historically that the magic eightball can in fact I guess be infiltrated. It definitely can be, so we'll have to consider that.

But but H just throwing it out there, just throwing it out there. chat ignored again TX What are you saying what? Marco No, who's Marco that's my cousin from across the border Tesla Wrecked me emotionally or financially. There's a lot of things to talk about, but folks, we got to get into the market here as you're sitting there already snacking on your kids mini Snickers that you said you're going to give to all the other kids tonight, but you already cracked the bag open and you're going to eat the bag throughout the day. and then you're going to have to come up with an excuse of when you run back to the grocery store tonight before all the trick-or-treaters come.

So I get it as you're there, just sitting back in your chair with like little small dusts of chocolate. maybe some Reese's rappers all over you. Just sit back. relax.

We all know the lies that you're telling yourself. You said you're going to have one. It's not even 9:30 in the morning and you're half a bag deep. It's all good.

It's all good. You'll come up with an excuse Maybe Maybe when your kid's at school, you'll back go back to the grocery store. You're going to buy a couple more. We'll get through this historically but but but but before we get to that point, we need to talk about the market.

We got to talk about all the things going down, because even though things were crazy yesterday, even though things are crazy today, they're going to get particularly crazy over the next coming three days. Wednesday Thursday Friday Now some of you might be sitting at home arguing to yourself that, no, no, no, it's just getting crazy because of the Fomc meeting results, the treasury decision Apple's earnings, and the unemployment. That's not why, that's not why. And be honest, you admit it to the rest of the class that you're probably one of those people.

You're probably one of those people that you're like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no that's why it's going to get crazy. but you're missing something. You're missing a key update of why. Even though today's crazy, the next three days are going to be more crazy and I I know I know that might be drawing that I'm already calling you guys out this early in the morning for already being wrong.

But please do not forget that as of midnight tonight for your boy cat Moors sober October is Dunzo? It is Dunzo a mere I don't know. 15 hours from now. A mere 15 hours from right now, the Northeast Corridor of America is going to be on watch cuz cat Moos is going to be Unleashed at at 1201, there's going to be just a break in the system the you're going to almost feel uh chills going down the SP your spine it it's going to get wild at midnight I was also almost thinking about it. Side note here: I was thinking about maybe at like 11:59 becoming not sober just to be like yeah I never never completed it like just like one minute beforehand just being like ah I didn't finish sober October like that type of a thing.

Uh, so we're going to see how it's going. but uh, let's just put it this way that as of I guess technically Thursday morning uh, it's going to be hungover cores for sure. it's going to go from Mt cores to cat cores to hungover cores. Um, so if you guys all want to meet up at a local Texas Roadhouse tomorrow night, let's do it.

Let's run out whole a whole Texas Roadhouse Together as a team, the the cat Moes Texas Roadhouse Meetup will find a local one the closest one. to me is probably somewhere in New Jersey I Don't think there's any in the city. So if any of you guys from Jersey if we want to rent it out and do it all together, uh, we can enjoy those. Maybe we should go to an Applebees those I think they have their dollar margs back.

That could we could make it work. We could totally make it work. So as you're considering the Fomc decision as you're considering Apple's earnings as you're considering treasury as you're considering what's going on in the Bank of Japan as you're considering all that, do not forget the fact that you also need to consider that sober. October For Cap, Moores is now almost complete and there's just going to be a change in the overall ecosystem.

The global ecosystem. The global economy is most likely going to be shifting. so I just want to throw that out there I Just want to give you guys a friendly reminder. And on that note, we should talk about some degenerate gambling.

I mean yeah, there's some people who say they're degenerate gamblers in the World of Sports but they've never really been introduced into the world of the biggest casino out there, the Old Ston Market This is where the real degens hang out and we have a couple things to talk about as I've said uh, we talked about it on Sunday We talked about it yesterday, talking about it again today I Think the Bulls have the upper hand I think we're just too extended to the downside and people are probably just waiting for the reports for tomorrow. So if I had to predict today with about a 3% accuracy I think today is going to be a nice Green Day S&P 500 futures rise. his Benchmark gets set to close out third straight negative month. Historically October does favor the Bulls Did it favor them this o October No, Not at all.

Not at all. not at all. not at all. Let's actually see what kind of damage was done over the past month down 3.7% So even though we're starting right here, we're starting here as of now.

unless we somehow magically shoot all the way back up to 427, which is probably not going to freaking happen. We're down 2.8% So maybe we get back up into the region of above 417 418 I'm then looking at 420. But even though historically you want to be a bull in the month of October, this particular October didn't not play out or most likely will not play out in that particular manner. Part of that is because yields are rocking, the Dollar's rocking bonds are vomiting and everyone's thinking what's going on with inflation Treasury yields fall as Traders start.

look at the FED meeting. So the FED meeting the Federal Open Market Committee meeting commences today, concludes tomorrow. We the general populace get the results at 2 Pm ET tomorrow. and then Jerome Pal, the Chairman of the FED will be speaking at 230.

Why is it important? Well, because yields are ripping as of right now, they're taking a bit of a breather. Not long ago, we got above 5% got smacked there. But this is a CL classic pennant. Lower highs, higher lows.

We're just waiting to see which way it breaks. Does it break and rip above five? Or does it crater below 4.8 and come all the way down to 4.55 This is the 10year yield. And remember, when yields go up, bonds go down, when bonds go up, yields go down. Uh, when I say bonds I refer to bond prices.

But anyway, yields and bonds moving inversely to each other. So when yields are this strong, it's just representing a tighter monetary economic situation. So that is a a pretty solid correlation. So when yields are this: High Well, you can basically assume that there's going to be downward pressure on the equities market, and thus Stons take a hit.

So this is the 10 year. You could look at the 20 year, You could look at the 30 year. You could look at shorter time frames. Um, this is what's going to be in play well, particularly the 2-year So when the FED Alters its rates, it has the greatest impact.

It more directly impacts shorter time frame bonds and thus shorter time frame yields. So this is why we're at almost 5.1 here on the two. You could look at the two or any shorter time frame one. But anyway, the world.

the world is paying attention to the bond market and thus the yield market. And then they're also going to be paying attention to the dollar. This is the dollar Index This is the US dollar versus a basket of other currencies namely, the Euro followed by the Yen, followed by the pound, and Then followed by a grouping of other currencies that no one really cares about. But this time around, what's moving things today is the giant jump in the USD versus the Yen.

And the reason this is happening is because the Boj, the bank of Japan equivalent to our Central Bank equivalent to the bank of England. It's just like all these major I guess countries and economies. Uh, they have their own Central Bank Well, over the past two days, there's been some interesting movement in the Bank of Japan basically saying, hey, we're not going to be so hardcore controlling the local bond market. so not our bond market.

Their bond market. Uh, so we're going to be getting into that. So there's a lot of kind of like nerdy economic stuff going on right now that's causing giant moves. And I'm saying nerdy because it's only like economy Market nerds who actually understand what it means.

But hey, we're going to do our best to explain it all and kind of like understand what is or isn't going down so we can make better predictions of what might be happening in the Old Ston Market in the short term and also the crypto Market Just because the crypto Market is continuing to represent some serious strength Bitcoin still holding above 34,000 eth at 1,800 I Know Salana is up I know Ripple's up. Uh, really, all of crypto's up, so am I going to? Snee Nope. I guess I'm holding that one in so various things to pay attention to on the larger scale with all of this massive macroeconomic updates. But we also have a bunch of earnings, so we're going to be talking about some of the ones that came out today.

after the market closes today. we have AMD Wednesday Norwegian CVS PayPal Roku Qualicom Etsy Airbnb Thursday Paler Shopify DraftKings Carvana Starbucks coinbase cloud flare, but the big one is old Apple After the market reports on Thursday everyone's paying attention to Apple because that's basically going to decide if the Q's make a bounce rebound to the upside or absolutely crater. so mark your calendars for that after the market closes on. Thursday Beer Giant Ab Inbev Beats forecast but Bud Light boycott continues to hit us revenu.

So the boycott of Budlight having very lasting impacts. Clear lasting impacts. So I I Just want to bring this up: I Don't think many of us are active Traders or investors in uh, Anheiser Bush But just want to bring up that the boycott is still clearly having an impact on the bottom line: Biser swings to quarterly loss due to Pax's loid Rona vaccine right off. so basically much less of a desire for the vaccines.

So I don't think anyone's surprised that there's taking a revenue hit, so just wanted to talk about Fizer there didn't have its earnings, but someone was talking about Tesla I covered this a little bit in the update video yesterday. Speaking of the update video yesterday, Matt Informed me that not many of you commented your name in the comment section. so what's your excuse I don't mean this rhetorically. I mean this very honestly and I'm looking for answers I'm seeing a lot of names in here right now that I'm not seeing com mented on the video from last night.

So what's the deal? What's the excuse? Were you too busy toilet papering people's houses? Or like, what's what's the situation? What's what's your excuse? I mean cuz I mean I I better be There's going to be a lot of excuses I Don't have a name. to be honest. it's dumb money for shame T You wanted to actively be shamed. Uh, yes, that one.

Wow, you guys. I'm not mad I'm just disappointed I'm not not mad I am just disappointed. But anyway Tesla Taking a particularly large hit lately. Uh, obviously bad earnings Elon Had a horrible earnings call, continuing to drift down.

continuing even further down. now because Panasonic was basically saying hey, the desire for Ev batteries is low and people are extrapolating that out. Basically to say that oh, that means EV sales are going to take a bit of a hit, so that's not so good. Obviously for the remainder of the week, Apple is what everyone's paying attention to.

They did just announce a new processing chip the M3 and then also there is a price cut for the entrylevel MacBook Pro So trying to up some of the sales there so just trying to get out I Guess some good Buzz before the actual earnings. So that's what's going on in earnings. But in terms of the macroeconomic situation, here's what we have going down. Uh, already Early this morning.

the CPI for the Euro Zone came in lower than expected. That's a good thing. Don't get confused by the fact that they color this red. They cover, color it red if it comes in below expectations.

they color it green if it goes above. But in this situation, we actually want to see inflation coming down. So once again, this isn't for the US, it is for the Euro Zone, but the Euro Zone CPI the Consumer Price Index another measure of inflation. CPI and PC are the two major ones.

Anyway, coming in lower than expected, that's a good thing. Probably a good part of why the market is green in pre-market right now at 10 a.m. we're going to be getting the consumer confidence report that comes out half hour into the trading day, so pay attention to that. then the party really gets going tomorrow.

So early in the morning, we're going to get the nonfarm employment change. We're going to get ISM Manufacturing numbers. We're going to get the Jolts numbers and then at 2: Pm. we get the Fomc decision and then at 2:30 the Chairman of the FED Jerome Po will be speaking Thursday the normal initial jobless claims and then on Friday the unemployment rate is going to be the big one.

So that's a quick look at all the major things to expect. Once again, just for today. if you're here doing some degenerate zero DTE YOLO things of that nature. Uh, 10: A.m.

we get the consumer confidence number. The forecast: the expectation is 100 little bit ago. I Alluded to what's going on with the Boj the bank of Japan it's their Central Bank uh. Anyway, why we see the USD J Basically on a relative basis.

the Yen is dropping to the dollar or on a relative basis. You could say the dollar is picking up relative to the Yen. So US Dollar strength Japanese Yen Weakness: The Boj is handing back the Japanese bond market to investors. The Boj is bringing an end to its near Monopoly of control over the nation's bond market.

Japan's Central Bank has tightly overseen the government debt. Market since it introduced Yield Curve Control also known as Ycc Yield Curve Control in September of 2016, with its ownership of outstanding bonds surpassing 50% but with theth Authority now suggesting it's ready to let the Benchmark 10-year yield rise Beyond 1% investors look set to take back to home. Remember, just for a little bit of I Guess understanding here, our 10year is currently at 4.8 4.9% So very, very different. But the reason they kept theirs was control was well.

because the Bank of Japan itself was the control, it had the Monopoly on it. Oh, that's not how RS functions. It's the third time since December that the Boj adjusted the effective ceiling for the 10-year yield, underscoring the challenges the bank has faced in maintaining the Ycc Less clear glance will put more pressure on yields to rise reflecting inflation in Japan that's near Four decade high and hawkish policy stances maintained by other major central banks. So basically they just can't keep it.

They're just they do not have the power or the influence really the financial strength to keep this strangle hold on. So the Boj is saying. Okay, cool. we'll kind of like let it be a little bit more controlled by the Invisible Hand of the market if you will.

We can see the bigger picture that Ycc is being dismantled and that the market is back now. 1% is no longer a hard limit requiring unlimited Firepower but a reference point so Jgbs will test the level in the coming weeks. So I'm going to probably do a specialty video on this. but I wouldn't be so surprised if this not instantly and maybe some of you have heard this before.

but there's a classic trade known as the Yen Carry Trade I Wouldn't be surprised if this trade is now no longer and when this all in the future ends up fully playing out. Uh, that was effectively only a thing because of the Boj's control. But if they're relinquishing the control that Yen carry trade I think it's going to be a dead trade. But anyway, that's a specialty thing.

The difference between the Boj's new Ycc approach and its previous methods is subtle. Up to now, the Central bank had a reference range in which the 10-year yield could move, but with a cap of 1% it's aimed to apply quotequote strictly now that 1% level itself has become a reference point without any specific cap, indicating that the Boj will allow moves higher. With a caveat that it may nimbly quote unquote, conduct operations to bring the yield back down if needed. So they were continually buying up bonds to keep the yield low and at certain points, they were doing this on a daily basis because remember, the correlation between bonds and yields is inverse.

If bond prices are up, yields are down. If yields are up, bond prices are down. So the bank of Japan their Central Bank was always coming in buying bonds, always representing demand for bonds which kept yields low. But now they're basically saying hey, we don't want to make inflation worse because they had their own drunken sellers on top of the mini money printer so they were printing money out of thin air, buying bonds, buying bonds, buying bonds, keeping the yields low.

But now they're saying, well, hang on, We don't want to be that dobish. We don't want to keep making inflation even worse. So we're going to stop doing that. Which will most likely mean that for them like the rest of the world.

Finally, bonds are going to come down and yields will most likely go up. So this is exactly why you're seeing the USD Japanese peering pop right now. because the US Dollar on a relative basis is becoming stronger. Israel Latest un warns the war spilling over into Syria This is what a lot of people in the energy Market Particularly looking at oil here, were kind of worried about.

uh, because if the conflict spreads right now Israel Palestine itself. they are by no means large oil producers, but they're in a region that if it were to spread well, it could impact not only trade routes for crude oil black gold, but it could actually the clear production of it. Saudi Forces on alert after clash with Iran backed. Um, however, you would pronounce this I Try to look it up this morning and I had it.

but I forget it at this moment in time. But Iran basically has a bunch of groups that they are going to financially support or support in one way or another and it's once again just representative of the conflict in the region spreading if it goes east a little North a little South were impacting big big oil production companies or countries. excuse me, oil could SAR to a record of 150 is if the Israel Hamas War escalates further according to the World Bank So right now oil is chilling at 8283 a barrel. We're not really seeing that much apprehension in the market if anything.

Over the past week we've been coming down a bit. Recently we spiked at 94 150 I believe would be an all-time high. Uh, in 2022 we got up to 130 and I don't know if we were ever we were above that. How high have we actually gotten? The record is I guess 147 a barrel.

We've never. what is this record 146 147 So they're basically saying hey, if the conflict does spread, if production is seriously hit when demand is staying at current levels Yeah, classic Supply demand it could keep pushing up I don't think that's the biggest Brainiac call out, but then it's your opinion, your thoughts and I guess now in today's age of Twitter and the internet, we're all expert military strategist, so I'm sure we all have wellth thought out plans and ideas of if this will or won't spread if you ask me I have no idea I am in Oxy I've been in it. that's the worm Buffett backed Energy play I've been in that for now almost two years so if this pans out I mean I guess that would be good for the sit my like financial situation probably not so good for the world though. Uh, because obviously if the conflict spreads, that means more innocent lives are lost.

which I don't think anyone really wants to be seeing that. Uh, what time is it? We do have some time. Sam Bakman Freed has one more shot at avoiding prison as criminal trial set to wrap up. FTX Founder Sam Bakman Freed will take the stand in his criminal trial for the third and final day time today.

Tuesday Bakman Freed who pleaded not guilty to fraud charges, has one more shot to convince a Manhattan jury. Much of the four-week trial consisted of Bankman Freed's former friends and top lieutenants testifying against him. This guy is screwed. He is so incredibly screwed.

Uh, I mean the defense is just falling flat on their face. and here's some of the recent updates from it: The latest details from The Trial of Sam Bankman Freed. He testified on the witness stand once again yesterday Katey was there and she joins us right now with more Kate How do you do so Becky Bankman Freed seemed aggravated yesterday. on the stand, he was dodging questions, was scolded for not answering some of the questions directly.

The prosecution called Sam B Freed's credibility into question. yesterday. in that cross-examination, they laid out inconsistencies times when the crypto founder was saying one thing in public, but something completely different behind closed doors. they used Sam Bankman Freed's media appearances against him.

We had an Andrew interview in there, a CNBC conversation that I had with the founder in which he told me there were no conflicts of interest between his hedge fund and his Crypto exchange. Attorneys presented him at one point with a book recently written about the Crypto Exchange and the collapse, but Bankin Freed said that he couldn't recall saying some of those things. They went through other contradictions and what he said under front of Congress. Then he was asked about private messages with a journalist in which he said I'm paraphrasing F Regulators That was after he had been lobbying for crypto regulation DC They also had him read aloud some messages where he called crypto Traders paraphrasing again dumb mother effers.

They introduced tweets as well where he assures customers at FTX assets were fine but behind the scenes the government showed using some Google metadata that he had actually seen financial documents unveiling a multi-billion dollar hole in in his crypto company. That cross-examination guys continues today. Wow! They were able to show that he opened the documents and saw I had never seen this it's called Google metadata but it showed that he had opened the documents and interacted with them because they would show in documents at certain points and he would say oh, I've never seen that which you his word versus theirs. They had showed that he his email address had actually interacted with that document and he had seen it or at least opened it suggesting that he had seen it.

Okay, he's this guy, he's going away, he's going away from for a hot minute. I would argue. uh, what was this on crypto something about Elizabeth Warren Recent reporting has suggested that Hamas and Islamic Jihad linked crypto wallets identified in seizure orders by the Israeli government received an estimated $134 million in two and a half years leading up to the attacks. So here's my question: Do you think that government authorities know the full extent of all the crypto funds that Hamas and Islamic Jihad received over that time period? By definition, they can't know all of the, uh, the extent of it.

But I do think that number is very likely exaggerated. It's happening. They're getting money through crypto. There's no question, but the experts who follow this closely think that number is inflated.

Recent Report: Basically Elizabeth Warren Just being told that she's dumb. She is so into this idea of like all all crypto is used for all forms of terrorism and just crime and nefarious acting. And like. Has anyone told her that the US dollar is most likely the biggest and Main currency that is used when financing crime? Like? Has anyone like, do any of her staffers tell her that be like yeah, yeah, like you're rallying pretty freaking hard against Crypto.

But like we hate to break it to you, most war and terrorism is financed by the US dollar. Like? has no one told that to her like at all? Uh, she I don't know why but like it. It feels like she one day was informed about crypto and then just decided to hate it. She's like, you know what? I hate that thing and she's been on the war path against it ever since and it's just so unbasic numbers and thinks she's right I It blows my mind Dy Ding ding ding.

The casino is open on this spooky spooky day. Happy October 31st AKA Halloween Play responsibly if not have buttloads of fun. May your degeneracy bring you to the promised land. That might be the new sign of may your degeneracy bring you to the promised land I Kind of like that that has a vibe to it that clearly has a vibe to it.

What do we have here? JB Raw She's not into the idea. She's into shutting down things they can't track easily. You know she has this whole vibe of like I'm fighting for you Uh, we like things should be. Quote: unquote, good and right and fair.

but I don't know man like she seems to be into so much of the idea of expanding government power. and to me, it's such a two-faced thing because I can't name one time where expanding government power in the long term has been a net benefit for the citizens of the US us. And she acts like she's always just fighting for you and fighting for the little guy. But then yet she's always arguing for bigger government.

and maybe I'm just not informed on politics enough. Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe it's a function of like where I'm at in my life and my age and this and that. But when has bigger government been beneficial? and she seems to be particularly into this concept of bigger government.

Give the government more power and I just don't get it. and I think inherently I don't know if I like Bitcoin or if I just hate our government. That's a weird moral question to ask yourself like are you actually supportive of Bitcoin or do you actually just hate our government so much like I just think they are the least effective organization that we've ever ever had ever had. Like there, they are so particular L bad at managing anything.

the bureaucratic way is Let's Take 10 times as long. let's spend 10 times as much money. It's like inherently anti- I Guess being creative like being efficient, being useful. The government system within the US is particularly set up to take forever and to sty me any form of innovation.

The government is literally the antithesis of innovation. and when then I hear these bits and stuff like these little sound bites of people who want to give the government even more power. In my mind, maybe this is right, maybe this is wrong, but in my mind, it's basically saying we want to be more against Innovation We want to be more against any positive progression in terms of businesses technology. I Would even argue that a lot of our social issues that we could be making greater strides on or once again being styed by the government.

The government is in my book, a bunch of unnecessary speed bumps time and time again. Executive order on AI Yeah, we covered that yesterday with Biden talking about Ai and I shared my thoughts on that yesterday. I Cannot name a worse group or Worse entity to be making rules on AI cuz they're too stupid to understand it. If they do make any rules, it'll be 100% to just bolster the power of the government and not really utilize AI for the best net benefit to mankind like there's There's just so many issues with it.

Uh, Nvidia dude. Nvidia sub 400 Nvidia This might be if Nvidia doesn't quickly catch itself. If it doesn't quickly catch itself, we might be talking about Nvidia down to 374, maybe 365. Something like that.

Nvidia Looking a little rough this morning, the Spy getting a little bit hit, the q's getting a little bit hit. Don't forget at 10:00 a.m. we get the consumer confidence number. so I will not be uh, doing anything until then.

Uh, sometimes a speed bump is a good idea. Yeah, I'm not necessarily against speed bumps because sometimes when there are no checks, an untethered system can also be bad. but I think it's more than a speed bumb. It's more of a brick wall that they lit a couple people through.

I Feel like this is what the government does. The government gets to pick the the winners and The Losers of all new flourishing Industries they lit a couple companies through that grow. Then they build a brick wall and then the companies who are. fortunately because they were very early on the other side of the brick wall, the ladders that they have.

They pull those up so no other companies can do it. and then this is how you get like a monopoly. a duopoly. like just a small group of companies that are intricately connected to the government who run it all.

So it's that type of a thing where the government and I guess like our current economy is like with new growing. Fields A couple companies get through, then government creates regulations which make it difficult for any competitors, and then they are basically lobbied to make those brick walls even higher. and then when they're done with their government post they go to those companies that they benefit like they help insulate from any competition. This is that's my big issue is our government is a effectively picking winners.

They pick a couple winners, they get lobbied to insulate those and then when they're done with their government post they go to those companies. It's it's absolute. And I mean I could go on for hours about how dumb lobbying is. Like it, it's just horrible.

Welcome to real life Thank you I appreciate the invite I got lost a couple a couple turns here and there on the way. but I do appreciate being here. in real life. big companies love regulation.

Yeah, every company's dream is to be that like Scrappy scrawny startup. Then you're in a field where no one's paying attention to, the field blows up and then Regulators come in. They make rules but you're like, well, we're already here so we should be grandfathered into it. and then those new rules make it difficult for any competitors and then you're just stuck with the ones that are there like that's and then it's just like one hand washes the other.

You could call it crony capitalism but I mean I'll call it what it really is. It's our politicians and our big businesses acting like pieces of um, inherently and to me that's not capitalism. We could call it crony capitalism. and I guess capitalism's in the name.

but it's not capitalism because it's not setting itself up for actual competition. They're using the government to styme any other competition And and so to me like that is not capitalism at all. SPF Was hoping that it would have happened FTX Yeah, and a lot of the times historically that stuff has happened. Uh, but this time dude, that guy's going to get skewered, he's going to get absolutely skewed.

That's exactly what crony capitalism is is is. They have convinced most Americans that it is capitalism and evil. When it doesn't exist, it's the perversion of what it is. Yeah, and like I Actually don't like that it's called crony capitalism because people then just like, well, hang on capitalism isn't It's not capitalism.

The point of capitalism is a lot of competition and then the best companies, the best grouping of people, the best market value ends up winning. Crony capitalism is opposite of that. Crony capitalism is a lot closer to authoritarianism or socialism where it's just like the government is picking a couple of the winners and then they just ride with those people. Dude, all you are doing is complaining about it.

How about fixing it? You know that's a good point. That is a very very good point. The government does call me up on a weekly basis and they're like Matt what should we be doing with the US economy? What changes should we be made and I usually just screen those calls and I don't pick up and I just don't tell them my thoughts on it most of the time I'm just sitting there I'm like, you know what? I'm not going to tell you what I think about the economy Mr Joe Biden Uh, but because of your comment I will the next time I get called by the government I will let them know how to fix some of their antitrust issues up until this up until this moment I I just wasn't doing it I wasn't doing it whatsoever and now I will now I Will get engaged. Hey dude.

between the two of us, I'm the one currently using my platform to discuss it I'm an active voter I do research on who I vote for. What do you mean? Get engaged. I'm the one here with the platform talking about it I am the one who goes out and votes we talk about. We dive into it.

What? What? The Are you smoking? Get engaged? Um, there. There's a high high likelihood that I'm far more engaged in all of this than you are. You're just sitting there with like your cap locks on. Yelling Get engaged.

Why don't you do something about it yelling at someone actively doing something about it? Are you the person who goes to like a voting booth like voting polls and then you're like you guys need to vote and then everyone's like awkwardly there and they're like, well, we we are here like what the not yelling dude, you're still in all caps. This is just awkward. Uh, this is it's real awkward. Uh, you very much have the vibe of someone that's at a voting booth and you're yelling at everyone.

They're like, you need to vote and they're like, dude, why do you think we're here like it's actually like super super strange you need to get engaged Hey man I Am engaged I've been engaged ever since Memor: Memorial Day weekend or is it Labor Day which one's in May whichever one's the one in May whichever one is that I've been engaged since then, both to my fiance and to Joe Biden That's when he started calling me. He's like, hey man, we need a Cutting Edge internet streamer to set all of our internal US economic policy. Like usually we have teams of PhD people doing this, but instead we're going to give it over to the streamers. A lot of the past administrations have only hired nerdy economic Phds, but we don't want that.

We want someone who understands memes. We want someone who has a Twitter following. We want someone who could pop off a Tik Tock and get informed with the public. Um, it.

It was a bold decision. It was a very, very bold decision. but that's what I do these days. This is for for me just to stay.

kind of like on the pulse of social media. and then I just I run this back to the administration. So silly. The internet is hilarious.

The internet as powerful as it is I mean I feel like some days of the week? Maybe we should just take a break and maybe turn the internet off. You're an influencer actually. I'm not I'm a a Pico influencer. You're an influencer.

Use your platform. What? What are you talking about? I'm using my platform right? Like you're seeing the real thing. Man, You're seeing it in action. You, you're in the show.

You're an influencer. Use your platform. What do you call this? What? What Do you? You're flapping your gums. That's what a platform is is people.

They use their platform by talking to people following that. What do you think? I Do take my platform and Bash it over someone's head. You know platforms aren't like an actual physical like thing. You? You get that right? It's not like I could go around and start assaulting people with my platform.

It We don't mean the physical word platform it. it's more of like where you speak kind of like a like a soap box and people hear you. you. You get that right? Like I can't go out and like un alive people with my platform.

It's a place where I just speak and some people listen to what I have to say. that's this is this is crazy I mean I I Got up this morning and I thought I took my crazy pills but you took a extra extra extra helping of crazy pills this morning. Now everyone's typing in Caps Every dude, you guys need to calm down. Let's chill it with the Caps stop yelling you guys are really loud I have my headphones on I know you guys are all feeling just crazy cuz it's Halloween and everyone's amped up like I could basically feel the sugar coursing through your system.

but let's maybe take a break on that 18th butter finger this morning and let's let all of our glucose levels come back down to like a little bit normal. We got to get some normal readings in here cuz like the glucose is off the chart. it's it is off the charts right now. You guys.

everyone. calm down. everyone. Freaking calm down.

Okay, this is popping off. If Matt were an influencer, he'd be wearing a duck shirt. This is why I'm the world's biggest Pico influencer I Need to get shirts that say Pico influencer That's where I'm really. that's where.

That's where we're missing. That's what we're missing. Why is that down Money? Why is that down Money 414 Oh well, that's why it's down Money is cu it almost got busted up. That's clearly why he just influenced us to to caps guys, he's legit.

That's called influence right there. Back in the day people be were able to yell and use their Soap Box to get real change and here I am using my platform to get people to speak in all caps, pants on caps, pants off, caps on. Oh geez gez gez. I've been commended by a lot of different people on my Pico so I would argue I'm a Pico influencer.

Also Chris join the club being being a a Pico person, there's a lot of extra room for everyone else. So it's it's. a party where everyone gets an invite. Big big party where everyone gets an invite.

All right, let's check this out. So the cubes not holding their high from two days ago and the Spy very much out hang on. where was that high was all the way up here? H not too too far away but the opening Market situation a little bit bearish but who knows, maybe this is a little fake out. but the market vomited for the first about 7 Minutes of the day and ever since then just going sideways.

Uh, let's just check in and see how the options Market is looking This morning, let's see what's going on with the old options market. So as of now the options Market sold off. Until look at that. when I was saying we vomited for the first seven or eight minutes.

That was confirmed by the options Market Market but since then the options popped a little bit going sideways, so little bit of a deviation. Now once again, that is for the spy. Let's check in on the cues. Let's just see what's going on with the tech sector beings.

Nvidia is getting absolutely murdered. All right Da da NASDAQ uh NASDAQ Also vomited for about the first seven to eight minutes, then went sideways. but then something just happened at 946 where someone went pretty heavy into what pretty pretty heavy into calls. Not for today, but they went heavy into calls for at least like a further out expiration date.

Look at this big jump right here at 9:46 so someone throwing some money on the bullish side of things. Um, right now Market is flat like I said I am not doing anything until we see the Market's reaction to the 10: A.m. announcement at 10:00 A.m. in about 10 minutes actually 11 minutes.

we get the consumer confidence report so that will be coming out in 10 minutes and 30 seconds. and from there that's when I'll probably get into some degeneracy on today. Uh, so just waiting for that to come out. Nvidia Dude dude.

Nvidia Getting the downside? Gap Fi to 39530 next stop I would argue if this doesn't hold this 373 below that 366 and then below that you have a giant downside. gaple all the way here to 306 shoulder Head shoulder not looking good. This was called out in the newsletter right here right Here newsletter. This comes out every weekend, but Nvidia was one of my watches.

Nvidia Nvidia Nvidia Right here. So this is where I Talked about it and the levels and just pointing out how it didn't hold the trend line: Shoulder Head Shoulder breaking down if it couldn't hold 403 looking at potentially 366. Um, on the way, there's 395 and then also like 375 as potential stops. But anyway, this is free if you want it.

Ma. Locals.com Um, but while we're talking about it, shout out to today's stream sponsor Street Be If you're watching this right now, sign up. It is free to download and you get a free one- Monon Trial with the code map. This is a robo advisor that does not participate in payment for orderflow.

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but I mean I have my own money on it I Really enjoy it I Have a sneaky suspicion that you're going to really enjoy it. but anyway, no harm, no foul. A free 30-day trial with the code mat. Download it.

You could use this QR code or it's on the Apple app store. Google Play Store It is free to download. Shout out to Sh for being today's stream partner. Uh, all right, the market coming down a little bit.

coming down a little bit more than I would like it to be coming down, but this. hang on. let's check this out. Options: Dipping a little bit.

Whoa. look at that. Options shot up and then dipped hard at 952. Uh, volatile day thus far thus far bearish.

I mean I Definitely am leaning on the bullish side of things. but I'm not doing anything until we get that 10: A.m. report I Very much want that 10 A.m. report us10y yields are not actually ripping right now.

The dollar is pumping up a little bit, but that's just because of not really what's happening here. It's more of what's happening in Japan Look at this. the USD JPY pairing ripping which is also going to be pushing the dollar up. So on a relative basis, the USD is becoming more valuable to the Yen just comparing those two.

So we're seeing the USD JPY rip which is also pushing the dollar up. Generally when the dollar is up depending on what's influencing that, it not so good for the market. but right now we're not really seeing anything going on with the 10e. The 10e is just chilling a little bit.

So um, this has clearly been bearish. I mean the Spy went from 416 down to 414. The Q's went from 349 down to 346. Uh Nvidia Going from 404 to 394, you have Bitcoin going from 34.5km video is the one that's particularly getting merked right now though.

Nvidia down 4% Apple not too far away. Meta down 1.3 So Tech taking a big hit this morning Amazon's down 4% Yeah, things not looking so hot. uh. energy sector XLE in the red, not by much XLF the financial sector actually in the green Industrials Xli slightly red utilities down ooh actually vomiting but technically green for the day Healthcare getting hit but still technically green on the day xlk So it's the tech sector that's really getting hit.

uh, but other sectors not looking so hot like I said I'm bullish on the day uh I Don't think any of this movement really matters to me I Want the consumer confidence report that comes out at 10:00 a.m. ET So we have about 5 minutes I will not be doing anything until then. Obviously, the tech sector is going to be taking a hit when Nvidia is getting hit this hard I Mean it's making a bit of recovery now, but it's below 400. Not long ago Invidia was all the way up at like 450.

Um, so maybe a little bit of a recovery coming out of here I Think the recovery is on if the Spy gets above 41518. that's the recent uh, swing high and then what I'm looking at on the Qes is 34769. Uh, so watching that, let's go back to the Spy really quickly. Inside bar: I'm looking at the daily chart.

The high and the low are within the high in the low of yesterday. The Q's also an inside bar, but getting closer to its low from yesterday. So these are all things to pay attention to. But once again, not doing anything until I Get that consumer confidence report and see how the market actually reacts to it.

Matt Sold some 420 by 421 spy call Credit Spreads last night just closed for a 70% gain done for the day Joe Congratulations Congratulations anyone else make some killer trades today, anyone else Beyond Joe Uh yo, what advantage is that option tracker giving you Matt It seems like whatever the stocks you're watching does, now if it provides information prior to the market moves, that's when I see the advantage. It just tells you what's going on in the options. Market That's the advantage is. sometimes it's in line, but then also sometimes you see uh, a Divergence But it also tells you the difference.

Are it splits it apart of are people getting into calls? Are they closing calls? Are they getting into puts? Are they closing puts? There's a a big difference between something being bullish because people are buying calls or does it just seem bullish because people are closing puts so both of them might push price action upward. But those are two very different things. One is actually bullish, the other one is just less bearish. Two very different things that in terms of price action, you might see a bit of an upswing.

Um, but for me, this is massively helpful. Like, look at this. you could see the Divergence The price popped a little bit. but look how bullish the options are getting right now look at the increase in the net Delta that's for the spy and then also this craziness right here.

The someone tried to hold the Qes, then the Q's got destroyed and now they're bouncing out of it I mean I Actually find this to be more helpful than the price action itself. like I if you got rid of the white line, if I had to either keep the purple and the teal line or the white line and I can only pick options or the price I'd probably just look at the options here just because of how influential options trading has become lately. I Just keep losing sadly I'm a loser. Uh, Mcloven, you're our loser.

So let's let's get one thing clear here: you might be a loser, but you are Godamn it. you're our loser and we're going to stand with you no matter what. And also you just keep losing. Well, statistically, with every loss, you are one trade closer to a winner.

So if anything, you should be stoked. You should be absolutely stoked cuz like you should be like dude, got that loser out of the way, another big winner is coming. Um, so it's more of how you want to look at it. Uh no I'm not.

no, What are you no I no I am What? Are you All right? We're just waiting. We're waiting for the 10: A.m. Consumer Confidence report. There's probably going to be quite the at least initial reaction to it.

Will it lead to anything? I Don't know your guess is as good as mine, but that's what we're watching. That's our plan and we're sticking to it all. We're setting up some alerts just to know if we're breaking down breaking out uh, all this price action to me doesn't really mean much. it's a bunch of hoopla at the point at this point 10: A.m.

ET Yes, we have about uh, a minute. we have 75 seconds. I Guess do you think CNBC will be reporting it? If not, we'll just watch for the reaction In the actual Market Uh, but the consumer confidence number coming out, the expectation is 100. That's the current Line in the Sand Remember, we live in the upside down.

Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news. Uh so hey, this guy looks like me. Keemstar and I look very similar.

Right now people are getting into gold. Gold's been strong lately. Just say Kenan is on track to officially enter a recession. You and me both brother this the first time Kenon and I had something something in common.

All right I have the volume on this program's just not playing. Uh, but I'm sure profit will be confidence. uh. consumer confidence should be coming out in 15 seconds.

We have 15 seconds. You guys might be like 5 to 10 seconds behind I think Rumble actually has less of a delay than YouTube Uh uh. All right, let's get going. What's it going to be? What's it going to be? Where we? here we go.

All right, CNBC is not playing. Let's see if someone autogenerated the consumer confidence number. It's 102.6 when the expectation was 100, so it came in slightly higher than expected 102.6 The expectation was 100. the previous was 103.

There we go, There we go good. Tuesday Morning welcome to another hour of on the street Carl K and David Faber Live for you as always from post Stock Exchange Take a look at stocks here in the early action, under a little bit of selling pressure. Dows down about 98 points right now. There are some pockets of green, though when it comes to the sector performance, You can see real estate, for instance, on top of the market, along with financials having a good day, utilities, and consumer discretionary.

Everybody else's weaker technology is at the bottom of the pack. Take a look at treasuries right now now. Mixed picture: You're seeing a selloff at the short end of the curve with the 2-year note yield a little bit higher, but the 10-year is lower. and we're going to talk about some of the reasons why in just a moment below 4.9% we're 30 minutes here into the trading session.

Here are three big movers: We're watching Caterpillar reporting a double digit jump and profit sales also beating estimates, but Shares are dropping on a disappointing outlook. ising on the of strong earnings and a solid forecast sales up 11% from last year. Pinterest CEO is going to join us in the next hour to discuss and then look at shares of serupa. Therapeutics They're plunging right now down more than 40% The company therapy to treat a muscle wasting disorder failed to meet the main goal of a late stage trial.

Spy options? Let's get consumer confidence with: Rick Santelli hey Rick Rick yes, hi Carl October Read on Consumer Confidence one from the Conference 102. Much higher than expected. We're expecting a number, but that doesn't dismiss the fact that's still the lowest level since May since May of this year not that long ago, but still a bit of a retracement from levels that we are more used to in the for example was July is good know and if we look at the present situation, that's 75.6 That's actually the best since August which wasn't that long ago considering this is an October trying to recapt this 34769 while the Spy itself is looking a bit weaker bouncing a little smid lower sitation 14712. but that doesn't change.

The historic really got heavy calls on the October. We see that interest rates have moved significant off their low yields over the last hour especially and 30s 956 957 Sarah Back to you Okay, thank you very much Rick Santel Yep, 10e note just goes positive. they're on the session on the back of that Strong data. Not exactly the the friendliest data when it comes to a Federal Reserve and investors that are looking 10 below 4.

we're seeing. There's a lot of here that to break outes to what Imp in the overnight session I Think we should start with Bank of Japan because there was a lot of anticipation. Building up to this meeting is having a big disappointed the Hawks for instance they they changed their yield curve control to set a reference rate around 1% The bottom line is they didn't go as far as they could have or some in the market thought they would in capping that or in in expanding the band that the 10-year Jgbs allowed to trade in. it was.

It was a little more vague and therefore bonds rallied and the US treasuries rally alongside what happens in Japan. So there was that. And then there we got the issuance financing data David which I know you were, you know I was I was on P Needles need. Both of my eyes were in fact focused on all eyes, all ears.

My understanding is it was. It was lower than what was expected. So $776 billion is what the treasur is going to borrow. And don't get me wrong, it's a very high number for a quarterly borrowing, but Tesla is lower than what they originally at the end of July said that they were going to have to borrow this quarter which was 852 billion the next big potentially tradeable Wednesday tomorrow morning where we get the how they how they execute, that, how they're going to break it down over what what coupons and what what sizes and that that has a potential to Spook the market as well.

You know if it's focused a long term, they I think more than 20% of the market now is made up of bills short-term borrowing because there's been a lot of demand there at the short end of the curb. so we'll be watching it right that? Futures Market Obviously the 3 minute under the cloud, 10 minute getting sliced at 9:30 going down 30. Did he go after Ste mini for that too I don't he had that opportunity as well he did. We were talking about with Jim where who had urged the treasury at that time to issue 50-year paper still basically R range bound since 940 I don't think anybody NE vomited for the first 9 minutes and since then we're just range spy.

A little bit weaker than the very much sideways drifting down, holding tight just because the market is not sorry. this is annoying. they're annoying. Um, what I want to point out is even though we're drifting down options Market Not necessarily agreeing with that dude.

The cues have been all over the map today. Interesting price, action, and options right now. A little bit out of alignment so we'll see who's who and what's what. In a little bit, patients will pay.

Uh I Haven't done anything too degenerate quite yet, but hey, there's always time. There's always time to pick up the degeneracy. So I guess for you I haven't done anything. Um oh wait.

this great question we should check in on OJ Orange Juice Still ripping. Look at that. Look at that squeeze. Dude.

Orange juice. Year to date up 100% Here we all are trying to pick the right stocks, the right options. When all you had to do was buy the orange, you just had to get some frozen concentrate orange juice A Futures you'd be up 100% year to date, 6% the past week 19% the past month 31% The past 3 months and over the past half year, you'd be up a nice 54% Why? Why are we trying to follow Tech and Crypto? When the new meme coin the new squeeze is the fruit we all wanted to squeeze. Anyway, it's just OJ OJ Dude OJ is just.

it's where it's at. It's where it's at. How's coffee doing? Uh, coffee? Wait, hang on. Qes are popping up now.

oo a little bit of the reversal I Knew the options Market looked a little bit weird. It was not agreeing with price. So this is a good example. Someone before was asking me like why do I look at the options because sometimes it is a leading indicator.

It's not always a leading indicator, but there are certain times where like you see price going one way options don't agree with it and then you see price revert. What's the futures for meth I'll DM it to you later. We don't want to necessarily publicize that. Um OJ ETF is there an orange juice ETF Orange juice ETF uh rja has a little bit orange juice OJ Futures I Don't know if there is an ETF should we start one The breakfast Commodities Is this just like eggs OJ debuts? Uh, consent? uh breakfast Commodities ETF It has corn, coffee, lean hog sugar Chicago wheat and orange juice BRK y BR R KY Well, I guess the other.

Well, hang on. Birkshire Purpose: what's in it I Have to make sure that this is the right one. but apparently they don't have enough orange juice in it. That's for sure.

All right Market Popping a bit uh I would love to spy to get above 41518 This recent swing High The Q's already got above their recent swing high at 34769. So let's see. Bre fist, we should make one. Let's make a breakfast one.

Chicago Wheat Oh the gloves. The gloves didn't fit. That's a different kind of OJ similar but different. Uh, both in one way or another were involved in beating something to a pulp I should be a standup comedian I know I know I know I know I know too soon.

What was that In the '90s It was definitely not too soon to make that joke. It happened in the freaking 90s I Can make that joke all day. Decades have passed. Oh come on, come on.

work with me. Work with me people. but bum thank you thank you thank you I'll be here all day. Oh that's a lie.

I won't be here all day. Is it time? Is it time to do some degeneracy? Uh I Wonder if the 10 minute is going to give us the old reversion? The thre minute is coming right up to it. Right here we're We're at the test level for the Es and the NQ. The S&P 500 is the Es contract.

the NASDAQ is the NQ contract. Both are battling it out to see if they want to do the old Trend reversal. the more attractive Matt Reif Dude, that guy is very attractive I I would be happy to be 50% as attractive as Matt re that guy no no no no no I'd be the lesser of Matts like that would be my bit like I would open up for Matt rif and I'd be like all right warming you guys up, worse jokes, worse looks but let's see if we could keep it going. um I I'm like the Walmart version of Matt re but like not just the normal Walmart version, more of like that version that like the discount bin right before you like check out.

Uh so like the lowlevel Walmart version. Uh are we going? Are we doing this thing? Are we breaking out? Are we doing this thing? There we go. Now we're pippity popping home brother. Now we're pippity popping Now we're pippity popping.

You think we're going to like really rip today and I'm just setting up some orders Some Dream orders I Would love for these to get hit, but we'll see. We'll see, We'll see, we'll see. Um do I think we're going to keep going from here? That's a good question. The 3 minute breaking out the 10minute trying to break out the 3 minute just Clos On top of this 48 3 minute close on top of the 48, the 10-minute trying to go, the 10-minute on the Q's trying to go.

All right. All right, where are we do I have the right account order filled, order filled. All right. let's see how targ one of the six hit nice Target filled all right.

Three of the six hit, five of the six hit. Come on. one more. we hit five of six, five of six Target Fa We go 330 locked in on the day.

Should we do it again, it was that easy. Why not do it another time? 3:30 on the day. Not a bad deal. Order filled.

Oops that was not