Foreign, Foreign. happy happy happy happy. Inflation Day Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, good night. Good.

whatever freaking time it is for you. Whoa. Here's a little crazy and that's because I've just spent the last two hours of my life sitting there trying to figure out why my code's not working so like my hands were I think my hands are aggressively pushing back my own hairline. And if you're a coder, if you've ever been a coder, you probably have the same problem.

You're probably just like there's so many times you're just sitting there like thinking, what the going on man, and like I think I'm like actively pushing my own hairline back, like physically literally shoving it to the back of my head. But whatever. that might just be a me problem I Don't know. I I Have no idea.

But anyway, I know it's inflation day. We are getting the Pce report the personal consumption expenditure. Now don't get mad at me. They don't call me anymore to name these things.

Obviously, if they called me I would name them something way way cooler that we are all way more interested in. But nonetheless, nonetheless, we're here anyway. We are getting an inflation report. It's coming out in just over two minutes and I'm assuming that the market is going to be having some sort of opinion on it.

Some sort of I don't know if it's bullish I don't know if it's bearish I don't know what it is, but I know our buddy Jerome Powell the chairman of the FED is going to be cooking up some craziness after this one. Uh, because he's gonna have to make some decisions. So because of that, because of where this is gonna I guess fall In terms of the Federal Reserve the central bank and their decisions, we're most likely going to see some volatility now. I Don't want to get anyone too excited before this report comes out, Things are looking pretty good right now if you look at the price action.

If you look at the overall macro economic readings, what we're getting right now really does seem to be favoring the Bulls in the market When I sprinkle that in with the fact that the first two thirds of September are bullish, it's making me feel like the Bulls have the upper hand now. obviously. I'm saying that with a massive cautionary note because we don't know what this PC report is going to be if it comes in hot. If the report comes in higher than expected, well, that's not going to be so good.

We're looking for the market, the market to react positively, especially in the scenario that the inflation report comes in cool. We want it to come in lower than expected. Once again, lower than expected is a cool report, most likely leading the market to the upside. Now, this is obviously all just conjecture.

We're going to be finding out very, very soon. I Hope that our boy Rick Santilly is reporting this morning because it's always a better day if we get to listen to Rick So before that all gets rocking I Would love to hear from you because that report is coming out and now 60 seconds are you guys feeling bullish or bearish, You have to vote. Now if you vote after you're a cheater and your vote doesn't count and you might be thinking it doesn't count towards what bragging rights that's what this world rolls on is bragging, right? So for you to be in the proper bragging right competition this morning, you need to be voting now. and then at the Power Hour show, you're allowed to come back and brag if you were in the right side of the prediction.

So uh, Sean You're right. We are looking for a barn burner type of a day. a barn burner type of a day. And let's find out.

I Want to make sure all the audio levels are good. This guy's talking what time is it? 29 we're We're rocking additional income and spending as well. and initial jobless claims. Take a look at the Futures They have strengthened over the last couple of hours.

the Dow 4.0 up a little less than a third of a percent. Right now, it has a four day winning streak. The NASDAQ also popped into the green as well the 10-year note that has been down revealed for a few days straight. It's given a little bit of a impetus for that.

Equity Market rallies. Well, the two-year yield allergies. Where's my allergy pill? I Forgot to say five Rick Santelli Standing by at the CME oh my wings. see that yields are dropping.

The data is trickling in. Let's start out with jobless claims: 228 000 That's below expectations of 235 000 and 228 000 is the lightest. well in the month of August, you have to go back to the last week in July Continuing claims from the week of August 19th. Always a week in arrears.

One million 725 is in the rear very close to expectation. Give us the PCS 125 000 actually is the highest level. Uh, give it to us for the first week in July Now Personal income and spending income up two tens 110. Expectations: if you look at the spending side: 110 stronger than expectations.

up eight tenths of one percent, up eight tenths, one percent is the second best number of the Year outside of January or is it 1.9 if you adjust for inflation, real spending up six tenths. That's pretty juicy. Also, the second time, buckle up the money ball. Four sets of numbers the month over month, year over year.

Some of the favorite inflation gauges of the Federal Reserve the Pce deflation month over month basis is up two tenths of one percent as expected. as expected. Uh, the light. Uh, Watermark The low water mark this year has been one tenth and that was twice back in May and also in March.

the high water mark June of 22 where it was up one percent the highest since 1981.. if we take a deflator year over year, look up 3.3 exactly as expected. However, it is three tens higher than our last look, which is 3.0 That's never a good thing. High water marked there June of 22 at seven percent that was in 1981.

comp. If we look at the core deflator on a month over month, up two tenths as expected, up two tenths is pretty much where we were looking for this to come in. We're kind of hitting expectations well. it was up one, uh, one point point One seven.

Our last look last looked rounded to two tenths I Think it's an important distinction and maybe the most important number of all the personal consumption expenditure. Core deflator year over year 4.2 one tenth hotter than our last look at 4.1 high water mark there 5.41 in February of last year, that was a 1983 high. And what is noteworthy here is that we obviously expectations and fed officials have pointed to this is this area. Interest rates did move lower, were very volatile, but we're hovering it for 0.08 409 maybe 1 10.

market first went down, recovered, and now we're just kind of posting a little bit. Fuego And how are they going to answer because you have to think about is what occurred last week: Jackson Hole Stocks are up how many days in a row? I Think we could connect the dots there? What is one of the motivating forces of stocks? Mike Santoli? It's all yours. Yes sir. Rick And stay with us, of course, stay with us reporter Steve Leesman, along with Lindsey Piazza Chief Economist at Stifle and Kayla Brune Morning Consult Senior Economist Welcome to you All Steve What stands out? Uh, we just want Rays give us what Give the people what they want? Well, you had a good compilation I'm just reading this.

Make sure I got this right. Prices for goods decreased 0.5 percent for services up uh 5.2 percent. That's the year over year for the month. Uh Goods Prices were down 0.3 um and uh Services increase 0.4 So pretty strong up that reasonably strong service inflation I Can't tell Mike whether or not that uh Financial commissions or or stock broker commissions pushed up the service sector number I Don't have the detail in front of me here, but that was a suspicion going in.

uh. stability I guess is the way to say it on the service side, not making more progress. maybe again that was pushed up on the core. Uh, and the headline number as well.

looks like it was pushed up, but not exactly clear what pushed up the headline here. I see Energy Prices uh were up just 0.1 percent and food up 0.2 So something else is pushing that up. but the big number I think from a GDP standpoint is the big spending number of 0.8 percent and yet you see income coming in below that did not come from compensation, which did pretty well. It was a personal transfers government.

uh, transfers I guess is the big part of that seems to come down? Um, but it still does auger for sure for Less robust spending in the month of August. But because of the way we start here Mike The importance of the starting point of the quarter in the way GDP is calculated I Think that still means we're going to be running I Don't know what the numbers are Four, five, six percent on GDP in the third quarter with some expectation that it slows down in the fourth, right? Yeah, that hot. July Uh, working its way through. Uh Lindsay Uh, so we have a little bit of a Stutter Step I Guess in the disinflationary, Um, that we've really had a general lack of surprises on the inflation data.

People seem to have a pretty good handle on the trend. Does that give you reassurance? So where do you think the inflation is ultimately going to be settling? No, Unfortunately, just because it came in as expected. I Don't think that offers enough reassurance to the FED which was which wants to see continued disinflation. Very strong disinflation.

Back to that two percent. Target So the fact that we are seeing a reversal with a spattering of price increases across different categories I Think this reinforces the Fed's message that we heard from Jackson Hole that the Fed's job is not yet done and they need to stay focused until that job of restate reinstating price stability is in fact sideways the Market's indices for them to continue to move forward actually as it really is next month. So I Uh, I I Do think that this is a step in in the right direction in terms of declining price pressures from the peak, but when we look at the economy still very robust, the consumer still very resilient and inflation now reversing course. Now is not the time for the FED to take a passive position on the sideline.

Uh, Granted that certainly the FED is not going to step aside or or claim that the job is done. but you actually think that even after Powell spoke a week ago, pretty much knowing that the core pece was going to be coming in as it did uh and didn't seem to want to rush to a September hike, You think they're going to move next month? I Think they certainly could I Think this: This emboldens the argument that further Fed action is warranted and the concern is that it's this is not just a one-month uptick, but the fact that looking out to 2024, we may continue to see a three-handle on inflation. and if we don't see further downward momentum on inflation in the near term. I Think this is going to force the FED to revise higher their expectations for inflation and again put pressure on the FED to continue to move forward.

Kayla What's your take on the the trend? not just on inflation, but on this economy itself. Have we just run through a bit of a strong patch in growth in consumer spending and and that's going to moderate from here? Or do you think that we can actually keep this up? I Do expect we're going to see some slowing in consumer spending heading into the fall, particularly looking at some of the data that we collect at Morning Consult. Um, we do a lot of surveys on consumers um, including our own proprietary spending data. Uh, and what we've seen is really over the summer when I kind of view myself.

Have you seen this Top Line Picture of a resilient consumer. A lot of that has really been driven by higher income adults and younger adults. Uh, the issue with that spending is a lot of it. tends has been discretionary.

um, and that's easy to pull back on when budgets come under pressure. and I think pressure is coming. This fall, we've seen credit card interest rates coming up. We know the student loan pauses is ending, especially hitting these younger consumers.

so there's a lot of headwinds coming for spending. Uh, and and I think we're going to see definitely some cooling this fall as a result of that. Based on what we're seeing in depth on YouTube's you more surprised by what we've seen with yields kind of getting pushed down over the last couple of days? Were you surprised with how high they ran before last week? Where's what feels more natural to you? I It was a bit surprising. Uh, it.

I I It's a lot of it I think is moving in response to what we had heard from from Pal last week and and again, the inflation fight is really going to be the thing driving those markets. Uh, and we've said this before. it's it's been reiterated many times. It's been reaffirmed that that two percent is the Target and Pal isn't going to start with the interest rate.

it isn't going to stop with the interest rate. um, holding it as much as he needs to until we get inflation back under control. and I agree. Um, that getting from three percent to two percent could be more difficult.

I'm particularly concerned about that big housing component and that that may be actually a pretty sticky part. It should cool in the near term because we know it's lagged, but what we've seen in the existing home sales Market that's keeping prices propped up and eventually that's going to come back up into inflation too. Skipping a little bit now. um, a recovery and some housing prices which is a huge inflation.

and Rick in terms of how the Bond market is absorbing all this as well. As you know, we talked about Atlanta Fed president Bostic overnight, really sounding relatively dovish, feeling like the FED should be done? you know I think that the FED has a very good chance to be done, but I agree in part with both guests. I Think the Fed's mission is far from complete I think the court deflator is going to be very stubborn I think it's going to be very very soon or three and a half percent, but being done doesn't mean they're going to ease and I think that's the difference I think it now becomes the Market's job I Personally see the market and especially long rates and you can see what they're doing right now. Equities are holding the bulk of the rally, but the treasury complex is starting to firm up a little bit.

So I think you're going to see 10-year and 30-year rates start to reflect more of what's going on with respect to tightening some of the conditions in the market as the FED leaves rates higher for longer. Yeah, that certainly seems like it was the dynamic over, uh, the prior few weeks on the long end test. Rick Thanks very much. Thanks also to Lindsay Kayla and Steve Talk to you all soon Thank you coming up! Could the lackluster IPO Market be set for a breakout up next year? We're probably talking about arms, but we don't need to talk about that for right now.

So at this moment, at 8 30, the market dipped a little bit. A little bit of a pop coming down, but indecisive. The Market's trying to understand how it really wants to interpret this data. Most of the data came in at expectation If we look at this week right here, the CPI for the Eurozone so not in the US, the Eurozone coming in a little bit hot, and then with us in the US here the Pce core year over year and then core month over month at expectation.

initial jobless claims basically coming in at expectation a little bit light. Now I Want you to know for tomorrow? Once again, an hour before the Market opens, we were getting the non-farm payrolls. We're getting the unemployment report. So today, big news day.

Yes! I've been fully expecting some volatility in the overall Market uh, yields bonds, crypto, even uh, the dollar. and then I'm expecting that to repeat itself once again tomorrow. So I think today tomorrow, we're going to have a bit more volatility I don't know which way. obviously it's going to be going.

if I could have a crystal ball like that I would have unlimited wealth. The best thing we could do is look at Major levels of support resistance, see how the Market's reacting to it right now. A little bit of a muted reaction. I Guess it's dipping down, but even without considering this pre-market movement without considering it, the Bulls have been in control.

I mean we had this lull here on Friday August the 18th it popped up, got smacked, put in a higher low and ever since then, ever really. since August 25th, we've been Off to the Races. So a little bit of a hiccup here in anticipation of the Jackson Hole Symposium When Jerome Powell spoke on Friday on Thursday, we gapped up, clearly a bearish engulfing candle. and then since then we've just been ripping higher highs, higher lows a beautiful Trend.

To the upside, and when I this just I don't want to go too far off on this right now. This is probably a better discussion for when the Market's open, but it's these types of movements that as a trend following Trader you make all your money. Now we don't always get beautiful Trends but this is a beautiful Trend. To the upside, this is a beautiful Trend.

To the downside: yeah, there are certain choppy periods, choppy, choppy. But then that's why if your Trend following Trader, you should assume that your accuracy, the amount of Trades that you're actually right on is going to drop dramatically. but your average winning size is going to go up dramatically. That's the opposite of if you're more of a mean trade mean reversion Trader as in oh, you get overextended, you're attempting to guess the top, and then you play.

To the downside, those ones you're going to be right more often. but the size of your average winner is going to be a little bit lower. So it it's that's the classic. Balancing Act I'm not telling you that being a trend following Trader is better than mean reversion.

Better than Arbitrage better than this that the other thing you can make money doing all of it. It's just find the system that suits you and it's obviously going to be beneficial for you to kind of understand the types of numbers that you could expect. So Trend Following you're going to be right less often. But when you are right, you're gonna have bigger wins mean reversion.

You're going to be right more often. but when you are right, you're most likely going to have smaller ones. Now Obviously, this isn't definitive and you can find counter examples for everything in this world, but just as a general starting point, that's a good mindset and understanding to have. S P 500 futures are flat after Wall Street Not just four day winning streak and as of now, a little bit over half of you think that this winning streak is going to be continuing.

If you haven't done it yet, it is pinned to the top of chat. Uh, right now we are running a poll on YouTube So if you haven't voted, smash your vote in right here. Also, while you're smashing something, don't forget to smash the like button folks. We're at 119 likes right now on YouTube There's almost 700 of you in here, which means we should probably be at a thousand likes.

So my question is, what are you doing That's and then where are we at? What are the YouTubes numbers? Where should we be at On: YouTube Is everyone just going to leave me ultimately disappointed? Today, There's 400 of you watching right now in Rumble and there's 40 likes. so there should be about 600 likes over there. So I'm I'm putting the ball back in your court and my question to all of you is, what are you doing this morning? Are you trying to embarrass me in front of my new viewers? The people who have never seen us before? You're like, let's embarrass Matt Are you trying to embarrass me in front of my sponsors? Are you trying to get my sponsors to be like dude? Does this kid have any following whatsoever? Come on guys. the jokes.

Save your jokes for April 1st Save your jokes for April Fool's Day Don't do it to me Dude dude. Come on guys. just be cool about it. Just just be cool about it for once.

Just be cool about it, please. So anyway, do you know the numbers? Uh CPI Eurozone Inflation coming in a little bit hotter than expected The PC Another inflationary report here in the: US coming in at expectations: Eurozone Price: Rises Steady for August But core inflation declines further. So remember, Core is when you take out food and energy. Headline inflation was 5.3 percent for the month of August according to preliminary data by the European Statistics office.

Thursday that's a above the 5.1 percent expected European Central Bank Member: Robert Holzman Said the data shows inflation is still persistent I Think that's a fact that we all know and you're going to know that if you've purchased anything lately and then you look at the price tag, it's not a fun time to be buying Fed's Bostic urges caution to avoid inflicting unnecessary pain. So just to be clear, this came out before today's Pce report I Just want to be clear, but bossick, A voting member of the F Uh, I Believe he's a voting member I'd have to check that out. but he's a Fed member. He's in the Fomc, Uh, he carries a decent amount of weight and we're hearing the same type of messaging being echoed across many central banks of hey, we're kind of winning, but we don't want to take our foot off the gas too early.

But then on the other side of that, there are people saying well, you don't want to overdo it because if you push down on the economy too much, there's real world implications of I don't know people losing their jobs So various things to consider. Now you, no doubt saw that the committee voted last month to raise the federal funds rate another 25 basis points to a level of five and a quarter to five and a half percent based on current Dynamics in the macro economy. I Feel policy is appropriately restrictive I Think we should be cautious and patient and let the restrictive policy continue to influence the economy lest we risk tightening too much and inflicting unnecessary pain. And we're not supposed to be on this slide yet, so just don't pay attention to that.

I'll let you know when to look. Um, that does not mean that I am using policy anytime soon. Inflation in the United States is still too high now. there has been significant progress in the battle, and inflation is well off of the very elevated levels that we saw in the last year.

but it's essential that inflation be brought all the way back to our Target We must remain Resolute in the campaign for Price stability until we see inflation is conclusively on track toward two percent over reasonable time frame. I Just believe policy is already restrictive enough to get us there. He's definitely a little bit more of a deaf. Nonetheless, more inflation expectations abruptly reverse course and start to climb, and I would certainly support doing what would be necessary to put the U.S economy back on a path toward price stability.

All right. So you have, ever since the last Fomc meeting minutes came out, we are starting to see a bit more dissent among them. So for really the past year we've had the Fomc voting members all kind of unanimously agree on the proper pass. But ever since the last one is now, we're starting to get to that end game of how do you really pull off this off landing And all of a sudden we're really seeing the classic Hawks Be the classic Hawks and the classic doves be the classic Dove So just want to bring that up.

Shout out: Kamikaze Cash! It's funny you're in here because the fact that we started streaming early today I was gonna let everyone in stream pick which one we're gonna watch Wall Street Guy gambles his mom's life savings and gets wrecked or Wall Street Weeb goes full Chad mode and makes millions. So the fact that we started a little bit early I was like okay I want to go through these two and I want to let the whole audience pick which one they want to learn from today I Think it's just a good way to set the vibe for getting ready for some like zero DTE yelling So uh, let me rip through all the major news today and then you guys can pick which one you really want to learn from this morning. China says drop and trade with the US is a direct consequence of U.S moves well, no duh U.S trade fell by 14.5 percent in the first half of the Year from a year ago according to Uh. Fang that China's ambassador to the US who blamed U.S tariffs and Export controls for the drop.

We need to find a path for expanding mutually beneficial economic cooperation and trade between China and the US. Well, this is what happens when they've been doing things that obviously piss us off with Russia. China's obviously doing some business stuff with them and so is India. So I don't know the political situation which I don't think this is a surprise to anyone is obviously tense thing called Biden's executive order aimed at restricting U.S investments in Chinese semiconductor and AI a violation of the principle of free trade um I don't know about that.

It could be I I Suppose it's in the eyes of the beholder in terms of individual Equity Updates: UBS Shares jump to 2008 highs after profit beat job Cuts announcement so UBS if you're trading that I don't think it's the most like exciting one but if you're in it looking pretty good this morning, CRM is this ticker symbol for Salesforce shares pop on earnings B in optimistic forecasters Salesforce Results and guidance came in stronger than analysts had predicted and obviously CRM is currently up in pre-market The opposite side of that is Adani. You've heard me talk about Adani before. This was one of the victims of Hindenburg research basically calling out this business conglomerate as being like fictitious, posting a lot of falsehoods, just doing some things that they said hey, this probably means the stock should come down and Adani has never recovered and in fact, it's actually getting worse now. A Donnie shares slide after report alleges opaque offshore investment funds.

The OCC RP a legendary report published Thursday that hundreds of millions of dollars were secretly invested in publicly traded stocks of the Adonic group via opaque funds based in where is this I mean is this their equivalent to like an offshore thing? Uh in East Africa I've never I mean let's let go. where are my maps? where are my maps here? Yeah, all of a sudden if you're having your Investments based out of a random island country I didn't even know there were countries to the east of Madagascar I thought Madagascar was kind of like as East as you get when it comes to African Islands uh but apparently dude I mean the talk about if they wait, Is this it what is this one it? Yeah, no. Over here, this is probably where even the more hardcore stuff goes down. You just have to keep island hopping.

just keep going east to the point that it like you're in the middle of the Indian Ocean Yeah. So my point in bringing this up is when you have a random Financial outfit based here, um, gives you gives you an idea that maybe maybe not everything going on is above board. How do we do a street view? I Want to see what's going on I Have a feeling that all these islands are probably beautiful and I should probably move there, but who knows, we'll come back to that. Where were we on the story? Anyways, CNBC was not able to independently verify the claims, but Adani which doesn't trade in the U.S market.

But depending on how your brokerage is set up, this might be something of interest to you. but it's all I Mean there's like I said, it's a conglomerate. They have all these individual pillars and they're all. all.

those individual pillars are definitely getting screwed at this moment in time. and I'm not even saying that it doesn't deserve it. Like if you believe in Hindenburg research, let me go this. Uh, Hindenburg Research: It wasn't long ago.

Why is this not coming up? Hindenburg Research: Hello hello Uh, it was two or three ago. Yeah, so they did Icon they did. Tingo icon icon Block: Where is the Adani one right here? A Donnie Group: How the world's third richest man is playing the largest Con in corporate history So it was posted at the start of this year January 24th and you could go through it once again. This is free for you to read Hindenburg Research.com and they just go through how it's all a bunch of baloney, a bunch of malagna, and now it looks like what is the OCC RP organized crime and Corruption reporting project? Oh wow, so this isn't just your run-of-the-mill like just random government organization.

this is the organized crime and Corruption Reporting project. Who's it? Run by documents? No, Uh Documents provide fresh insights into allegations of stock manipulation that rocketed India's powerful Adani group. Whoa there, brother, whoa there. Key findings: Neither India's stock market regulator nor a high-level expert committee has been able to prove what many suspect that some foreign owners have publicly listed a dining group are in fact front's first majority owners.

Fresh allegations aired this: January by American short sellers rocketed rocked the conglomerate. But offshore secrecy has made tracing the transactions difficult. Official Investigators quote unquote hit a wall In the words of one report: Now New documents obtained by reporters revealed two men who spent years trading hundreds of millions of dollars worth of a dining Group stock. Uh, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Both have close ties to the Adani family, including appearing as directors and shareholders in Affiliated companies. Records show that the investment funds that they used to trade in the dining Group stock receive instructions from a company controlled by a senior member of the Adani family. And obviously a lot of this stuff is more commonly played off when you have other companies as a shell company or a holding company in a different country and then if you start Crossing it. With other countries, it becomes really difficult to track down who's the owner, who's the operator.

It's tough to track the money. That's why a lot of them like to play this shell game of we incorporate in this country but then that owns a company in a different country and then it's on this random Island So another, uh, we are. Whatever island we're at here apparently this uh Margaritas how do you properly pronounce it? So another common one um Mauritius Mauritius I've never heard of this before. Anyway, apparently they're being accused of using this in Mauritius We've all like grown up knowing about the Cayman Islands but the new one Now that I read a lot of people trying to hide money and whatnot is uh Cook Islands and this is actually to the east of New Zealand Another random little island.

Why is this not working here? Search it. We're over here. Your start. Where is the actual cook? Island right here? So it has it goes.

Australia New Zealand Fiji's up here. uh Samoa And then you have Cook Islands over here. actually a little bit to the west of Bora Bora French Polynesia. But you're starting to see a trend here of incorporating and doing all your business dealings on just like random little islands.

And part of this is because it's literally difficult to get there. Like, and a lot of times the argument is like, well, hey, maybe the regulars just won't step foot physically on the island or wherever it is, so they go out of their way to make it difficult to get to. It's that. It's a whole crazy thing.

A lot of this. if you remember two years ago I think it was, uh, when the Panama papers and all that stuff came out and like a lot of this became like kind of public information that they were doing super sketch stuff Folks, it goes on literally all day, every day and this is just what we know about. Imagine what's going on that just hasn't really made it to the Public Square yet hasn't made it into the public domain. I bet the type of just like business backhand deals, uh, legal loopholes, illegal decisions like that stuff probably happens like way more than any of us would want to admit very quickly with respect to today and seasonality.

Uh, for today Thursday August 31st to pretty much wrap up the week. But really, to wrap up the month, the Bulls are favored today. Uh, if you look at the past 20 25 years worth of data, the Bulls have won this day 72 percent of the time with a profit factor of 1.78 The bias is bullish. Now, just because the bias is bullish, this is by no means a guarantee that today is going to be a bullish day.

In fact, where are we at right now? Let's check in on how things are doing. Uh, we're holding. We came down a little bit, went up a little bit, came down. Now we're just basing, but overall, we're still higher than we closed yesterday.

the Spy closed out the day yesterday at 4 51, and right now we're at 452.. So we're up by a dollar A dollar 25. So as of now, the seasonality is playing out. But let's let's not to get too crazy, we don't need to be predictive, we can wait and see how things are really positioning themselves.

At Market Open, we'll see where the big money is going, we'll see what the market internals look like, and we'll just ride the trend. I Am personally of the opinion big money is made from riding big trends, so that's what I'm personally looking for. Speaking of getting things somewhat right in the local community: Matt Cores.locals.com This was the trade posted yesterday and it did pay off. thus far.

all the zero DTE trades thus far like fingers crossed knock on wood. We're getting lucky. none of them have missed yet. This is either the third or the fourth one thus far.

100 hit rate I In no way expect that to continue, but I am happy that we got into this realm of four or five because that's how many you need to cover one unit loss. So right now we kind of have in our pocket from these trades. uh, covering at least one unit loss. Most of these have an accuracy of like 80 to 85 percent, sometimes as low as 75, sometimes as up as 90.

it depends on the market conditions, but these are high odd trades now. obviously. I'm not saying 100 I mean no means saying that oh, there's this is gonna work all the time I Just know it works a lot of the time. and then the question is is do we have enough in our pocket saved up in terms the return to cover those rare circumstances that a loss actually happens if the signal produces itself today.

Once again, I will be posting it in locals but this one hit yesterday and I hope you made some money or I hope honestly, you took an even better trade and made even more money. Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes dingity ding ding ding today. Thursday To wrap up the month, not so gloomy. August So thus far, how are we at in August At one point we were as low as a drop of 5.4 but as of now, in pre-market trading, we're only down a percent.

so not so bad. And depending on how things go today, I'm not thinking that August is actually going to go green I Think that would be a bit of a stretch for us to get up to 458 but I don't think it's that insane to look at 454 455 just to have a little bit of a baby loss on the month I think that is very possible. From ADP to GDP, we have the ADP report. We had the GDP report, we had the Pce report.

Tomorrow we have the unemployment report. Obviously, this week is pretty heavy on macro economic developments I Want you to know that we're not done tomorrow. The unemployment report is coming out an hour before the Market opens and as a public service announcement. I Also want you to know that the market is closed on Monday in observation of Labor Day holidays here I'll just show you this really quick just in case.

I Don't know. maybe you're planning some cool trip or something, but Labor Day the market is closed on Monday September 4th. So you're not trading, not trading, not trading. So don't get it confused to think that somehow I don't know.

The dark pools consume the entire Market or something like that. That's not what's going on, it's just a holiday. It's a little bit of a break. Uh, and then obviously we have two more Market holidays this year after it.

Obviously we're gonna have uh Thursday for Thanksgiving and then also Monday December 25th I Guess on this note: I Want you to know that I won't be streaming tomorrow? Your boy has to go on another business trip this time. I'm going cross country to Portland uh just to do some stuff tomorrow. Uh, a quick little trip. So if you're in the Portland area and you want to shout out, meet up something like that DM me.

but I will be in Portland tomorrow. Uh, if possible depending on the Wi-Fi in my hotel room. I'll try to do a market wrap-up stream tomorrow. but I wouldn't be holding my breath on that because we all know how Hotel Wi-Fi goes.

I Haven't been in Portland in a bit and this really has nothing to do with the market or anything like that. Uh but but but. but but the last time I was in Portland well I've heard that it's been getting kind of dangerous. I'm pretty sure like a lot of major cities on the west coast, there are some serious like drug related crime issues and it's sad.

but the last time I was in Portland it had to be 20 14 2015 2015 I think 2015. 2015 and when I went there in 2015 I came to the realization that there's something special in their water because when I went to a bar there everyone was good looking. Everyone every. it didn't matter.

it was as if there was a model convention in town. It was actually overwhelming how much Beauty I saw like I was just in this bar and I looked everywhere everywhere. Every and everyone was like a 9.9 out of a 10. everyone was ever.

It didn't matter if it was the bar back, it didn't matter if it was a person partying, it didn't matter if it was the Uber driver, it just simply did not matter. Everyone there was attractive. Um, it sounds like that isn't necessarily true at this point in time, but about eight years ago, there was something special in Portland's water because everyone was absolutely beautiful. But once again, that was the better part of a decade ago.

So I don't know if that's true, but obviously I'll be back here to report to you guys. Um, after the trip. So yeah, feel feel free to bet on it if you want to do your own bets on will Matt find Portland as beautiful. the uh, the initial odds are saying that it's not so Bueno Not so, but you know, not so.

Bueno I See a lot of you guys talking about AMC right now? where are we at? Uh, you guys are saying it's ripping it folks ripping. Yeah, I mean it's up 11. but please understand that in the month of August be exclusively because of Adam Aaron's actions and decisions. Even at this pre-market gain, it is currently down 68 percent.

Like the where's LG investing meme. Uh, where's I'm looking for that Meme where it's down down and then there's a little bit of green and everyone's like let's go, let's go Uh, that's what it kind of sounds like in here when you search Lfg. Investing meme uh TMI is one of the like. he's a top three wait.

you even have Lord of you have Adam and wrinkle brain apes are with you. Smooth brain aims are with you. So it begins. Where's that? You guys know the one I'm looking for? Anyway, that's kind of the vibe right now.

Um and hey I understand and I said this yesterday for anything to make a crazy move. it has to start somewhere. so this could be I mean yesterday it was a nice gain of 16.7 Right now, it's up an additional 12 in pre-market I hope it holds. In fact I hope it goes even higher I want it to go up I'm in I'm in it.

but understand that even concern. uh, considering this stock split? well when you do the math on it, it's starting at 1427 in pre-market right now. 14 30 Something like that, that's equivalent to a dollar forty. That like in your mind, you should be thinking a dollar forty if you're comparing it to numbers last week like it's really been getting beaten up and I would love Adam Aaron to say something to do something.

but here we are just like questioning what in the world's going on. Let's talk breakfast. What did you eat this morning? I Don't really eat breakfast which is interesting because I Love breakfast. Breakfast is my favorite type of food.

um by far by far but I have been I don't know my personal trainer in here Robbie he doesn't know he's my personal trainer but he's my personal trainer. Generally what happens is I just get a really good gym session in and then I DM them and I just talk because Robbie's like a really um, he's a talented lifter bodybuilder. So like I just talk about how like I'm so much bigger than him and my back looks like I'm stealing a manta ray like I talk a lot of to him. um but anyway Robbie has me on this whole concept of we should be, uh, intermittent fasting.

so I kind of I try to I don't really eat till one which isn't hard for me because I was never a breakfast hungry person anyway. so it's really easy for me to just not eat lunch at noon and I just wait an extra hour. But I do love breakfast food. so I don't want there any confusion out there.

One of my favorite meals on this planet is a breakfast. like a breakfast sandwich. a bacon, egg and cheese on a bagel Taylor Ham, egg and cheese on Bagels sausage, egg and cheese on a bagel I Love it I love it I love it I love it I just choose to eat it for lunch instead. so I just want I just want that out there I don't want any false accusations coming through that like Matt hates breakfast I Don't hate breakfast I love breakfast food I Just choose to eat breakfast food at an abnormal time so just wanna we.

We just need to really set set some ground rules here. I Like bacon wrapped chicken tendies I Think we all do. And if you don't like bacon wrapped chicken tendies, what are you doing? You know that's a fair question. Uh so AMC Looking pretty good in pre-market right now, the Spy is falling a little bit.

Uh, if we were to bring up the overnight session, just always something worthwhile to check in on? How did we do from two to four, two to four, two to four, two to four, two to five even. I Just wanna see how we did in the European session? a whole bunch of nothing. The European session they try to get going. Uh, we popped up a little bit by the close of that session.

it sold off and we pretty much started, but ended right where we started. So not much of movement in the London session. In anticipation of this Pce report, we have a bit of a run-up it's giving back some of those gains right now, but overall at the current price and yeah, all right, obviously we still have 20 minutes ago, we're still basically flirting with this key breakout level. Notice how it's the same high high high high with higher lows every single time? That is just telling me that the Bulls that people buying are getting a bit more aggressive.

And what I really mean by that is they're buying earlier. Each time it goes up, it gets smacked. They buy, it goes up. It gets smacked.

at the same level. they buy earlier, it goes up. It gets smacked. They buy earlier, it goes up.

It gets smacked. They buy at the same level. It finally breaks through. and then the question is when are they going to do the buying today? Your guess is as good as mine.

But right now, especially considering the daily chart I mean the Bulls are in control. Now the interesting thing about control is it waxes it. When is that right? Wanes it, waxes and wanes. wax on wax off a waxing gibbous? A waning gibbous is that where I'm getting it.

Is that a right? Is that a proper saying? It waxes and wanes. Or am I using like weird terminology from the moon cycle for saying that's not really a saying, waxes and wanes that I like I know it's related. Can you say that though in like a general thing like just like hey, like it goes back and forth. Can you say that or is it only for the Moon am I taking Moon based discussion and using it somewhere that I'm not supposed to I need to know this folks.

You got to tell me if I'm right or wrong because if I if I don't let me use the terminology wrong in the future I could get embarrassed like what if I'm on some important Kelly Ripa show and the first thing that comes to mind is waxing and waning folks. If this, you're setting me up for like failure here and I'm now I'm just freaking out. Someone needs to tell me the truth this this could be a career ending issue. Uh, just like hey, like yeah, but like wait, dude.

All right. I guess we're never gonna know. Well here I am I'm gonna end up using it and I hope it's a good one to use. Anywho, the spies looking good, there's a little bit of a downside.

Gap Though yesterday's high was 451.67 we're right now we're trading at 451.83 So a little bit of a downside. Gap Phil It might not even be there by the time we open. We have about 15 minutes so time will tell. Obviously time will tell, but I'm going to be paying attention to that and if things get bullish today, if we can get above the start of this upside Gill up Upside: Gap though region to 453.52 I'll then be watching 455.49 which is the low from August 1st and if we hit that today which I'm not going to say the odds of that are high, but I think they're looking like it's possible.

but I'm not saying like there's some outstanding statistical chance of it, but if we hit that, it would really clean up the chart. Uh, August itself wouldn't really be much of a loss at all. Uh, the Bears would have just slightly won because of a pretty impressive like fourth quarter recovery. Speaking of fourth quarter recovery, how could you have known that that this had like a good chance of happening? Well, it all comes back to being a nerdy statistician, nerdy statisticians for the win.

If you look at the past two to three decades worth of data, look what happens right at the end of August. There's a clear bullish bias, so you get about three quarters of the way through, and then statistically, historically, seasonally. the final week of August does favor the Bulls and guess what's happening right now? the Bulls are winning now. I Want you to know that the start of September is a little bit Rocky, but the first two thirds generally favors the Bulls and then the final third generally favors the Bears.

And then from that moment till the end of the year, the Bulls are greatly favored if you get a little bit of the way into October. Like once you get about a third of the way into October till the end of the year, being a bull generally pays, and there is a little bit of a hiccup right around Thanksgiving. But if you're excluding that because hey, just Overlook, the things that you don't like, you're gonna win. Uh, for whatever reason.

Well, we know the reason. It is commonly considered that October is the worst month for training. It isn't I know that we've had horrible days in October, But if you look at all of the data for October, it actually does favor the Bulls like it's just assumed because when there are flash crashes and black Mondays and things like that, they do tend to happen in October for whatever reason, but the data is actually so good in the Octobers that that stuff doesn't happen that the net average result is actually bullish gains in the month of October. A lot of people go around just like kind of telling you that October is not a good month and that that's just not accurate.

It's actually not accurate by any means. One of the worst performing months is on average is actually June uh, just a little bit of misinformation that goes out there. Matt You have a personal Trader What? I'm my personal Trader my robots are my personal Trader uh do you mean trainer like at the gym? Not really I just kind of go on the stair stepper until I want to vomit and then I call it a day. It's a pretty easy training regimen.

I don't need like some like it's not like I count calories or anything in like that by any means I probably should I just don't because I'm lazy I don't because I'm lazy. All right. So anyway, spy looking good Upside: Gap Filter: 455 49 Potentially in play. You know, depending on where we open, there might be a little bit of a baby.

Downside: Gap Filter to 451.67. the queues are in a very similar situation: higher highs, higher lows Upside: Gap Fill to 380 69 and right now we there is a suit. Like there's a three cent downside Capital To the point that I don't even think it'll necessarily be there when the Market opens. Uh, but if it is, if it gets bigger, maybe something that you might be interested in playing Apple Looking good higher highs higher lows Upside: Capital to 190, Uh, 70.

we've been watching that for a couple days now, working out beautifully Microsoft Not moving too much Tesla Had a great day two days ago yesterday. A little bit of a muted day. Uh, it's down a little bit in pre-market but I would love to see Tesla kind of push out of this consolidation Zone that we had from the end of July to the start of August Uh, if it does, uh, massive upside gotfield to 289.52 if that does occur and I do think it'll eventually occur I Just don't think it'll be necessarily happening anytime soon. And just so you know, if you are playing Tesla there's actually a downside gaffle to 217.58 The high from Friday August the 18th Nvidia is the stock that just doesn't stop.

There is a downside: Gap Filter to 435 78, but overall higher highs, higher lows eventually. I Do believe that this will make a lot of money to people on the downside, just because it's training at such an elevated value relative to its earnings relative to its Revenue. But it doesn't matter because right now the shorts the Bears on Nvidia are getting absolutely steamrolled. Beyond Steamrolled like you just you can't bet against it because it just doesn't stop.

Uh Netflix picking itself back up. but overall putting in a pretty decent couple months. A little bit muted right here. but I'm watching 445 Meta vomited pretty hard after its earnings, but trying to bounce maybe a double bottom situation at 275 276, looking for it to get back above and hold above 300.

Amazon Similar situation to Microsoft and Meta just not really moving the modes recently. Uh, speaking of moving though, on the flip side, rum after getting hit down pretty hard to seven. decent recovery back above eight, so nice percentage gain right there. Looking forward to take out 890 nine dollars flat.

I Would love for it to get above and hold above that if we take a look at Disney Disney To me, even though it's getting really beaten down lower highs, lower lows. this is in my book a still a solid risk reward play because your risk is the low 80s, which is where it is right now. It's trading at 84.39 so you don't have to risk much and you could be risking like 80 flat risking four dollars per share. But on the flip side, if Bob Iger makes a couple more good deals, if something successful goes on with ESPN it, it's just the reward relative to the risk.

It seems pretty solid right now, so if you end up bottom ticking it, it's something to look at now. I'm saying that and I own no Disney right now, but I am definitely actively watching it. Uh, what else? Rblx Roblox Getting really beaten up recently not long ago it was at 46. now it's at 28 earnings gap down.

it just got demolished and sold off even more. but maybe making a bit of a recovery right now. Target uh actually got destroyed with all the social backlash, went sideways, got hit again, but making a recovery after getting hit? Uh. speaking of social backlash, Budweiser Bud Anheuser-Busch obviously was as high as 66.

dropped all the way down to 53. bounce back up. sideways trading right now. A little bit of a larger range, but a range nonetheless.

it's been a four dollar range, just not the most going on right there. Gme uh, getting annihilated ever since mid-june but recently the past week making a bit of a recovery going from 27 all the way down to 16 coming back up to 19 right now AMC we already looked at it, got absolutely annihilated with this reverse split the merge. the that went on with the whole retail voted for it even though we all know it was his private Equity buddies uh, maybe bouncing off of this I mean uh, just in terms of mean reversion when you get beat up this bad, you would assume that there's some sort of Bounce and maybe that's what this is I Would like for it to be a bit bigger, but just getting absolutely annihilated. What else is going on? What else? What else? What else? uh, do you like? Taylor Swift Yeah, she's dope.

Really popular. Really successful. I Like some of her songs I don't know. All like I'm not a hardcore Swifty but I definitely know some of her songs.

uh, what else do we have? What else? uh, what else? What else? What else? Tilray a little bit of a jazz cabbage play. I Find these places to be difficult just because it's so politically related. So politically related. I Mean this is just will it get legalized at a federal level in the U.S If so, these companies take off.

If not, they don't take off. So to me, it's not really a technical place, not even really a fundamental play. In a weird way. it is fundamental because you have to look at their cash burn and ask yourself, do they have enough money to survive the unknown time frame? It's going to take the U.S political system to catch up with reality.

Uh, so unless you have that political Insight I find these plays to kind of be difficult. Uh, so just wanted to share that. I mean there's various ones? How's Mara doing? Not really moving much at all? the same way. Crypto hasn't been moving much at all.

Speaking of Crypto: Bitcoin Still holding above 27 000. Recently had a nice pop on the grayscale victory in the legal system against the SEC. Uh, so we popped up. It's holding 27 000.

Obviously, it's all-time high of 69 000. We're quite a ways away from that. We're also quite a ways away from the fact that Bitcoin at one point was trading like at Fractions of Ascent. So um, is it kind of a glasses half full, half empty type of a situation? Uh, what else do we have? What's Icct? What's that? information communication? Is this What? Wait, that's ICT What's Icct? Do you ever play penny stocks? No.

penny stocks suck. The edge in playing penny stocks is if you're betting against them. So unless you're properly set up to be betting against penny stocks, you don't have an edge. Especially when they're trading on the OTC market.

Most penny stocks fail, and then an even higher percentage of penny stocks on the OTC market fail. Which means it's your Edge to play against them. Um, once in a while. Once in a while you find a diamond in the rough that becomes like a legitimate company.

but those are very very, very difficult to actually find. Um, in fact, like it's just in a general sense. It is way way better for you to be going against them like what is this? Yeah, this. this isn't another penny stock.

Is it even on? um, what just happened? A reverse split? Yeah, they did a reverse split. For every thousand shares you have, you now have only 33. So this isn't actually skyrocketing in terms of like. it's not like it truly went whatever.

Like, you'd have to do the math on it. It is up and obviously some movement's happening. But when I see reverse splits I know most reverse splits are done when a Company's trying to get like avoid being de-listened Which means things aren't going well. so it's up right now.

But I wouldn't be a bull on it. Why would I chase this? Why If I wanted to play it and I'm not going to play it at all. But if I wanted to play it, I would just wait for it to actually show weakness and play it back down to this level. It's just when something's already pumping.

Don't be the sucker. Don't be the exit liquidity. For someone who went into the pump early. If you see a crazy high fire, Be the smart person.

Be the patient person. Be the disciplined person and wait for it to fall apart. Now if you were in before the pump, Congratulations. Ride the trend.

Ride the trend, Ride the trend. But don't be late to the party not long ago. This is that too. Why would you chase it at 17.

that doesn't make sense. That does not make sense. Be the person early to the party. It's not cool in real life, but in the world of trading, you want to be on time or a little bit early.

You don't want to be late. You don't want to be chasing. you don't want to be the exit liquidity for someone who traded it better than you did. It's just you might get lucky every once in a while, but over a long term it's just not gonna work for you.

It's not going to work in the long term. Speaking of long term, actually, how's the Piper account doing right now? No trades are generated quite yet. I'm nervous if the trades are actually going to fire today because I did have some issues yesterday and I think it was a more of a data connection issue like to the actual brokerage or to the software. Um, Icct had to rebalance.

they messed up the split it. just it like that type. As soon as things are getting reverse split, your buy should automatically be. Bears Reverse splitting is not done for a positive reason.

technically. I Understand that splits and reverse splits theoretically don't change the value of the company, but they do in reality because there's certain psychological implications of it. And when you are going through a split, typically the Bulls end up winning. When you go through a reverse split, typically the Bears end up winning.

So right now people are trying to tell you that The reverse split. in AMC is a good thing. It's not a good thing. they did it because they didn't want to get delisted because it's getting very close to that delisted region and it's a huge embarrassment to get delisted off the New York Stock Exchange So they AMC is reversible.

Yeah, we know that and it's not a good thing And people are trying to tell you that like, oh no, no, it's actually fine. It's not fine there. If you look at just generically what happens with reverse split stocks, they usually end up getting worse. Not always.

Of course you're going to find some counter examples, but we're in the games of the high odds place you want to. You want the statistics to be on your side, and the statistics of being long and bullish on something that's going through a reverse split. It's not. It's not good.

It's not good at all. But whatever. We have five minutes to go, so please ask, whatever. Let me know your charts.

What are you looking at? Type it away and as you're typing that away, don't forget to hit the like button. We're at 319 likes right now on. YouTube Let's get that up to 500 before that Bell goes ding ding ding ding. Let's rip this all the way up to 500.

We're at 319 so we need a 320. so we need 180 more. 100. 180 of you need to step up to the plate today and do your job.

Where are we at? Um, we're at a thousand right now on Rumble Do I need to reload this to see and we're at a hundred likes. so we're at about 11. So let's let's double that up to 200. If you're on Rumble right now and there's a thousand of you, double that up.

Smash the like button. it says 100. Let's rip that up to 200. let's rip it up to 200.

Doc you what's going on with DocuSign DocuSign doesn't really seem to be moving much. doesn't have a nice Trend ripped up got PL like just destroyed huge gap down. Uh, in terms of capital efficiency I'm not really against it or four I just think there's better setups right now in the market than DocuSign but I use a product a lot. that's how I signed like all of my like whatever agreements and Deals and all that stuff.

Um, so I like it as a company I use it but it's stock. it's just not moving much. So the fact that we have a finite amount of capital means you should be putting your money where you like. it's moving and it's doing something for you.

This isn't really doing anything right now, but very much a fan of the product. Uh, some people still pumping AMC in here I think a lot of it is actually just trolling. Um, there's there's one thing I can confidently say about the community in here. especially on the YouTube chat.

Lots of trolls, Lots of trolls. and I love it. It's fun. Uh, so 66 of you are bullish today.

two-thirds of you are bullish today. two-thirds hey, 75 more likes to go. We're almost there. You guys jacked it up to 425 just like that, which is what? 105 of you.

So over half half of our goal was already met within seconds. So let's just bring it home. Someone bring us home. I Don't know if it's trolling as much as they want their money back.

Uh, probably a mixture of the two. It's probably the trolls who are trolling the people who want their money back just because it's the internet. And that's what the internet does. That's what the Internet does, All right.

So here's the dealio. We're going to wait for the market to open. We're going to be calm, cool, collected, and see what the opening range is and then from there. Maybe we'll play some good trades around 10 a.m if a signal produces itself I will post it in Locals macross.locals.com if you're interested in that zero DTE training type of stuff.

Uh, and then you guys are gonna pick. do you want to watch Wall Street Guy gambles his mom's life savings and gets wrecked Or do you want to watch Wall Street Bets Weeb goes full Chad mode and makes millions. So when the market comes down a little bit, that's what we'll be doing. We'll check that out and you guys can vote.

They both seem pretty interesting to me. Both seem pretty interesting to me. We have about a minute left. a minute left.

Someone's asking about oil. Oil's been pretty strong. Here's the daily chart on oil. Uh, classic cup and handle I mean I Don't know if something gets more evident than this cup and handle right here.

So 84 down to 66, up to 84 down to 78. The buyers start to buy early. The perfect buy was right in here around 80.. it's a little bit chasing now if you want to wait for comment confirmation of the breakout and have a little bit of a wider risk.

Okay, that's reasonable too, but oil is looking bullish in my book and for me that's good. I've been bullish on oil for just over a year now I Decided it to play it through with my buddy. Warren Buffett Oxy is something I'm invested in in my long-term account. It's at 63.

My average is around 67.68 I Have to admit, it didn't play out the way I thought it would like. This was pretty painful in here from November to this period. but we do have a nice technical breakout. Higher highs, higher lows, it's holding above 60..

So I'm just looking for a test and a breakout of 66 68 and then I think we could go back into the 70s. So that is in my medium to longer term account like I've had it for over a year at this moment. But on that note, dignity ding ding ding. The casino is open