Foreign I Wonder why I'm here, gone, gone? Whatever happened? Oh brother, oh brother. Before we get started with the Matt Core's live show today. Quick question for everyone: Do you guys take vitamin D every day I've been reading more and more about it and everyone's like yo, you gotta take some Vitamin D You're a nerdy ass streamer that don't get no sunlight, so make sure you're taking some vitamin. D Supports immune Health bone, teeth and muscle health Dietary supplement Vitamin D No colors added, no artificial flavors and it's gluten free Apparently One of these tablets is 125 of the vitamin D3 I Need a day calcium that has some calcium in it makes me big and strong when I grow up.

Makes me big and strong I Feel like we should be doing it? Oh I Give plenty of vitamin T. Oh, we're just taking some vitamin D Uh, obviously I am a paid spokesman for the Big Vitamin D Community out there. The big Vitamin D Overlord All right, I took it. We can start the show.

Um, yeah. most likely going to be a little bit of a quiet day I'm not really expecting much I Don't think there's really anything going on I think just maybe a little bit of a movement. To the upside, a little bit of a movement. To the downside: I've done some very in-depth quantitative analysis on the situation and I think there's only two possible solutions today.

I Think we're either going to be red or we're going to be green. Either the Bulls are going to win or either the Bears are going to win now. unfortunately. I Can't tell you the magnitude, but I have done all the research for you and I've narrowed it down to those two simple possible outcomes.

There's an infinite amount of outcomes out there, but here I am burning the midnight oil, calling up all my mathematician friends, basically doing some beautiful mind Goodwill Hunting stuff and I've narrowed it down to only two solutions. Either Bulls are gonna win or bears are gonna win. You're welcome. You're welcome.

You're welcome. You're welcome. So um, like I said, those are the two possible outcomes of the day: I Don't think it's going to be anything special I Don't think that there's going to be much of a volatility. No real big announcements, nothing going on in the political landscape, nothing going on.

and really, the overall. Market Market hasn't really been moving that much if we go down to individual stocks. Not much movement there either. Things are just kind of chopping sideways.

We're not really seeing massive rips. To the upside, we're not really seeing massive rips. To the downside, just kind of like that that summertime sideways thing I Think a lot of people are more so focused on getting some vitamin D from the actual Sun that big giant fiery star that we go around and probably focusing their nights on I Guess going to Texas Roadhouse But other than that, I mean if you guys know of any stocks that are moving, you could let me know, but it's just been boring. Um, no real stocks are having any volatility.

The Market's definitely not doing anything special. It's just like a sideways choppy. Market There's no major political developments. There's no major economic developments.

There's no major announcements going down. Um, we're just kind of I don't know. The show's almost like at this point turning into a bit more of a hangout just because we don't have much to go over. Uh so.

and I'm cool with that. I'm definitely cool with that. Um, that's just where we're at. like it's just like a little sideways I Don't know.

I Think the major thing here is like when you're not seeing that opportunity because we're just sideways chopping. Um, the Bulls aren't really that dominant. the Bears aren't really that dominant. Obviously, you take your foot off the gas and you just kind of chill.

You just enjoy the day. Um, I Wish there were some announcements I Wish there were some movements that we could trade in the market, but hey, that's the nature of the market. Sometimes we expand, sometimes we contract. and we've basically just been contracting over the past couple months.

Really? from October until now. just a giant contraction. Not really any useful movements for us, so that's cool. We'll just kind of hang out.

It is what it is. Um, yeah. Any any questions, comments, concerns on that before we? I don't know I found some interesting news. Like we could go over just some of the drama in the world than anything else because like I mean Market's been boring.

Uh, so any questions, comments, concerns before we get going? uh as I'm waiting for your questions, comments and concern turns to come in. Don't forget to show a little bit of love to Street Beat. They are the sponsor of today's stream Pentathopa Chat in the description of the video. If you want to use AI for trading as your co-pilot Streetpeat is the easiest way to do it.

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Use the code mat on the very first page of the sign up and that's how you get your bonus cash but more on them a little bit later on. Uh hey! Mark can you tell me your thoughts on Kroger Uh, it kind of scares me because I didn't really grow up with one in general I had small local grocery stores so when people are like like it sounds daunting, it sounds like kind of an aggressive grocery train. uh, chain? excuse me? So for me uh, if anything I would say intimidation is my main thoughts on Kroger Um do I wipe from back to front or front to back or back to front front to back I would say good question though solid. there's more to the market than spy in.

Tesla There's melon. Mullen's been the one stock that's been keeping everyone in the green I Must admit. so maybe I was a little bit wrong for saying nothing's moving. Uh, because Mullen's always moving, Mullen's keeping most of us in the green.

Uh, do you still stair step? so I don't know if I want to share this with all of you, but we might as well. uh I Recently realized recently I was in Vegas and I saw pictures of myself that were taken obviously of me in Vegas and I am a a pudgy little monster. A walking bag of mayonnaise if you will. uh I think In some cultures it's referred to as being a fat fuck.

um not my culture but I think some cultures do call it that. Um so even though I've been stair stepping I kind of thought about it I was like okay, this is easy accounting calories in calories out. what's the deal And even though I was working out I've been stair stepping like a fiend. Dude, your boy crushes 150 flights like it's nothing like it's breakfast like it's a breakfast burrito.

I will crush 150 flights. The issue is that I've been crushing actual breakfast burritos Way too much. Way too much. Um, and that's also just a general statement for how many calories I've been intaking on a general basis.

So after I saw these pictures, I've decided, you know what? Matt Everyone, everyone's had enough of you being a fat fuck, everyone's had enough of you being a walking bag of mayonnaise on a hot summer day when you're just a a pasty bag of bones and fat. So one of these days, if I could get myself to actually do it I think it's time that we start working out even more and dieting more. I think the key part here is the diet. I've been working out, but it's the diet man.

I think I've just been consuming too many calories in a day. So I think it's time that I you know, really bring together my diet. Uh, maybe do a little bit of fasting, maybe really trying to cut down on the carbs. but we'll see I weighed myself I started this at I think 195.

Granted, that was like with quite a bit of quite a bit of water in me because I was chugging water that day. but I wanted to do a speed run I want to see how quickly I can get down to 175 and I think I could do it in two months, so stay tuned for that. But anyway, we should probably switch it up over to here because uh, as I was saying before, that was all pretty much a complete lie in. the Market's been absolutely crazy.

It's been an absolute Rip City We get inflation. We have fomc a lot's going on I was screwing around because why not have a a little bit of fun when you can? But no, the Market's been crazy. Many stocks have been crazy. There's a lot of things going on in the economic landscape, the stock market landscape, the political landscape.

We have a lot to talk about. Um Rick Santelli inflation coming out. Next Information data that we're waiting on and that is the PPI after yesterday's CPI Rick Take it away. Yes, we're expecting our meeting.

May Read on the wholesale side of the equation on the producer price index: expected one percent on the headline, down three tenths of one percent, down three tenths one percent and do remember all the high water marks for producer prices on all levels. One made in March 22.1 remarked for this series was 1.6 Since then, this is the one two, three fourth negative read that we've had on Headline PPI and minus three tens. Well, in March we have minus four tenths to put some context up, two tenths when you strip out the all-important coming in. and if you strip out food energy now, let's go to the year over year, shall we? PPI Final Demand year over year.

So headline year over year up 1.1 percent. That follows up 2.3 up 1.1 percent. Uh, 11.7 was a high water mark in March of 22.. So this has come down a long way.

When was the last time we were at 1.1 percent? Well, I have a two and a half year database and it's prior to Uh January of 21. so a a nice low number: 2.8 When you strip out food and energy year over year, we're expecting 2.9 high water mark. there was 9.7 And finally, if we look at X Food, Energy and Trade year over year, it's up 2.8 percent. Uh, we're expecting 3.1 in the rear view mirrors 5.4 and inflation is coming down 28.

Interesting because that is the lowest level going back on I may have this one. Yes, February of 2021. So these numbers are significantly less than high water marks high water mark there, by the way. 7.1 percent.

So unlike Consumer Price Index, we are coming down much more risk, much faster. And tenure. No eels. Haven't moved that much from 380 to 379.

Two years. No eels. Uh 462. They were 463 prior to the number, but it isn't necessarily the distance traveled here as yesterday.

The issue really is how the market ultimately investors think about this number and what do they do for the next several Plus hours. Yesterday, of course we saw a big reversal after the knee-jerk reaction, and if we look at what's going with the pre-opening equities, not a significant amount of change, we still see down Futures down about 75 80 points. Ultimately, today's Fed decision doesn't look like a rate increase, but a pause. And to me, Applause is very important.

Why? Because we need to ask ourselves, why are they pausing now I'll tell you why, because they really want to be done. They want to buy themselves more time. They understand that keeping a five to five and a quarter rate over time will continue every minute of every day to exert pressure on the economy after Decades of rates being too low. Becky Back to you: Rick You think the muted reaction today, both in stocks and in bonds maybe just an indication that Ppi is less important that the CPI and the number we got yesterday brought.

the Market's reaction brought the expectations for what we expect. the FED to do today just solidified it. Yeah, I think that sums it up. I Do think on many levels that the wholesale number isn't as significant to investors who are always trading in the moment in the here and now than Consumer Price Index However, I Do think that the Producer Price Index is giving you a good indication that ultimately the effects of inflation will continue to moderate.

It's just a question because these numbers are higher than of course this is the ones. Even though they may do more damage and less interaction in the interest rate complex by just moving rates higher, they're going to do more damage. I'm not sure they're going to change the course of these inflation numbers, so we'll have to wait and see what the press conference holds for us and what Jay Paul has in store this afternoon. All right.

Rick Stay right there. What did you think looking through these numbers? I I Like the way Rick put it, you know I I Think smart investors are watching the PPI because it's telling us that inflationary pressures up the supply chain are dissipating and dissipating rapidly. I Think that's a really important development. I When I look at different things, it's more than just food and energy.

so it's more than the volatile sectors here by myself. I Already almost had a mental breakdown. The things that pushed up prices. Now, the questions: feeling the competition and the competitive pressure as their input prices fall.

Do they have the ability? Do they have the the Uh, the necessity to lower their prices to different Dynamic On the consumer end. Before you had people, you had consumer facing companies holding the line on price increases. Now we've kind of broken the dam on us. We've watched that very carefully and uh, Becky I Want to show you one more chart here from the CPI yesterday that we didn't get to look at and this is courtesy of a Tom Lee pointed this out in a note this morning.

What I want to show you is what's going to happen next month and it's another reason why the FED might pause. If you go back and look at this one-year bar chart of the um, uh inflation number, see that June number again all the way on the left side of your screen that drops out of the equation next year next month and Tom Lee suggests that could bring the inflation number down from four percent to three percent just on its own, all else being equal and that's going to be a big. It's not another reason for the effects next to it is that I think that's a zero I Believe that'll be that that was a zero generally. so you have that 1.2 number.

Yeah, that could really change the picture. It's another reason for the FED to pause. And I think these wholesale numbers suggesting less pressure up the supply chain is yet another reason. Okay, Steve stay right there.

We've got two more voices we want to bring into the conversation: Julia Coronado who is Macro Policy Perspectives founder and President also Tyler Goodspeed who is former acting Chair of the President Council of Economic Advisors currently a fellow at the Hoover Institute murdered people are some pretty positive signs to read into this Again, the market may not be reacting Romney Terminator but does it change your perspective at all? There's a lot of indications as Steve was suggesting in the pipeline, the composition of inflation is improving. There's more of a mix of price declines, price increases. It's not just All in One Direction The pipeline pressures through the supply chain using pretty rapidly, so you know? definitely I Think this gives us the confidence to take a breather. uh and give some space to gather more information.

It's not that we're out of the woods. Uh, you know Powell has said that. You know that first leg is the easy part. then the hard part is bringing inflation down from you know, four to two.

Uh, so you know we've still got some wood to chop here. but definitely all these signs are going in the right direction is improving. Commodity prices are easing. We're seeing more competitive.

Behavior As Steve noted, we really do need to see a lot more signs that this is being passed along to. Consumers Core inflation's been pretty safe. Definitely. This is another Uh mark in the win column for things going in the right direction on inflation.

and Tyler you were impressed with what you saw yesterday. He wasn't impressed too. I Think add this to the list. it's certainly a sign that cost push inflation continues to ease.

We still have a lot of demand pole inflation look we went from about a year ago underlying inflation I think in the sort of five to five and a half percent range. Over the past six months, it was sort of treading water in the four and a half to five percent range and now I think we're in a sort of four to four and a half percent range I I agree with the panel and and with Steve and and Rick that we're probably looking at a pause I Hope that the FED will look through the base effects because remember those base effects flip sign after June and they got to be a little bit careful to make sure that they they continue to be data dependent. but that's a symmetric data dependence because if this is seen as a ceiling, then that truncates the distribution of possible Fed funds rate outcomes, which by itself could be a bit expansionary inflation. Smarter than all of us In future, here is some like: Advanced It's always a risk, but I think right now their mandate which is price stability and uh, they they have that mandate and I think they're going to continue with it.

Julia You come down on that side too. I mean I Think the way chair Powell described it was that risks around doing too little dirt versus doing too much are becoming more balanced. And certainly I would say that failures of the banks that we saw earlier uh, this spring are an indication of that. The yield curve is inverted.

the financial system is getting adjusting to higher for longer interest rates and a generational shock in inflation and interest rates. I Do believe in lags so I do see a balance of risks on both sides and the reality is that the risks from Financial instability are non-linear so when they jump out at you, they they bite you hard. So I don't think the FED wants to find itself Last Resort position it found itself in March That is not where you want to end up and that is a key reason they are taking a breather in June Inflation hasn't shown enough progress, but there are very positive signs in the right direction. and meanwhile, you've had a very tangible, serious event.

Where the FED is, you know, had to expand its balance sheet and and step in as lender of Last Resort That's again, not where they want to be. So I think they have a delicate task ahead of feeling their way to that, right? Uh, policy setting. The economy is doing a lot of, you know, work for them. The economy has been just incredibly resilient, the labor Market's been incredibly resilient, but they cannot take that for granted.

So I think the balance of risks is definitely two-sided Steve Can I just ask you just thinking about this balance of risk I Don't know why it just occurred to me. Does the FED have some sort of a Hippocratic Oath where they think they are doctoral which I guess would push them to the point of stopping, pausing and wait, waiting to see until they have a little more definitive information. Or does that not exist at all when it comes to the FED No, it definitely exists. but the question becomes the balance of Risk right? If the balance of risk tilt towards higher inflation then the Do No harm is to do more in terms of bringing down inflation, right? But but the risks are balanced at this point that it argues for the FED to pause here.

but Becky I Just want to know if I could have a second here to draw Joe out. He's been hitting at this all week and I'm kind of interested. Maybe I'm there Joe Joe Is this I I don't know I don't want to miss it but I don't want to be too early. You know is inflation vanquished Is the Fed on pause? Can we start doing IPOs and I don't know.

drinking the punch again? What I want or or what? What's really happening? Well, what's really happening? that's my view is this: Is this it. Are you ready to call this the the current bottom Or the current top? Whatever. Whatever it is the current topic I Just don't think that. I Don't think that the NASDAQ and the in the S P uh are are totally oblivious to what is really happening and have a better idea than than the Fed.

Maybe what's happening right? maybe and maybe the Bond market has a better idea of what's happening. And I I like the way I think you and Jake I don't know whether you guys talk but you both seem to be more open um to lags and that we might already be there I don't really understand. It seems like I think of course most of the people are really young and weren't around for the 70s. They always talk about Volcker in the 70s but they weren't even there for it.

So I don't really understand. It can't crack, but they get in that uh I I sort of have a a empathy for where Rick has been, on whether they've already gotten to where they need to be. Well, that's certainly been mixed. that's been that's been Rick's take for a while.

Here's a little more cautious and you, uh yeah, but but I don't want to miss the momentum. We've been sitting here at the moment when the FED would pause and it would be the green light for IPOs I Just don't want to miss the moment if this is it. Too bad. Happy Flag Day though, get him.

Rick Fuck him up. Rick Flag Day All right guys, leave it on that note. but obviously we've got lots more to talk about, right? I want to thank our panels and Tyler Rick Steve fine elbow coming up coming up. Our reaction today is that I'm cautiously optimistic Joe you just got knocked out by Rick you just got knocked out.

All right folks. No more yelling. We got some wood to chop and some barns to burn. Let's hop into it.

S P 500 futures rise as Wall Street counts down to Fed decision. This is a double exciting day. so we just got the PPI report. For those of you who don't know what it is, it's the producer price index.

It's the measure of inflation for producers for how much it takes them to make shit. basically month over month. it came in at negative. That's like the Little Dashie sign before the number 0.3 percent.

The expectation was negative. Once again, that Little Dashie sign of 0.1 So we came in lower than expected on the month over month. Uh, headline reading: That's good. That's off.

That's dovish. That's bullish. We want inflation to come down. If you look at the year over year in that reading: hang on.

I Just had it. Uh, we were. Or the core month over month was 0.2 and the expected was 0.2 Um, if you look at the court year over year, it was 2.8 when we were expecting 2.9 So basically across the board here, you inflation, similar to yesterday, came in lower than expected. So that's good.

That's good. We don't want inflation. We want to see this coming down. But to be fair here.

PPI Uh, the last four months have actually all been negative. So in terms of manufacturing, that's been the one that I think is clearly going the way that everyone already wants it to. The really the sticky issue here is the core. CPI That's the one that people are really having issues with.

Headline CPI coming in like nice Trend Downward PPI Whether it's month over month, year over year, core headline that's been coming down the sticky one In this scenario, which we kind of alluded to yesterday, is that the core CPI especially the year-over-year reading is just not where we want it to be. So the PPI I think going the way that many, many people expected it. So that's part of the story today. The other part of the story is the Fomc meeting.

This is the second day of the Fomc meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is went to a bunch of old Geriatric people. uh, meet up and they decide what to do with like our Financial Health It happens roughly eight times a year. Sometimes there are emergency meetings, but this is one of the scheduled ape and they decide to do with the FED fund rate.

They decide to jack it up to lower it to skip to pause. Those are basically the four decisions this time around. Most likely they're gonna skip. You might be thinking to yourself, hey man I just want to talk about you being a bag of mayonnaise I don't want to talk about this boring ass fomc meaning I don't care about the FED fund rate? How does it impact my life? And I know I'm just a walking bag of mayonnaise.

But I'm here to tell you that it is actually extraordinarily important. The FED fund rate is like the interest rate that ends up setting the tone for what's going on with, uh, your mortgage pavement. What's going on with uh, your credit card, interest payments? What's going on with your saving accounts yield? What's going on in the treasury market. With bonds and those yields, it actually has a massive, massive, massive impact.

You could actually argue that the recent aggression AKA hawkishness and the FED in the trickle-down effect and a domino effect and a Snowball Effect is kind of what blew up these Banks. So when we're talking about Regional Banks going poof, it's because of how what the FED decided to do. and then bonds spiked up and yada yada that type of a deal. So yeah, there are real impacts on us.

Even though it's boring as shit, you got to know about it. So that's going down today. Technically, the meeting started yesterday. All these meetings are two-day meetings.

They start on Tuesday and on Wednesday We get the result at 2 pm. ET Yes, I'll be streaming it and you better be there or I'm gonna find you I'm gonna find you at your job and I'm gonna be like hey buddy, hey pal, why aren't you on the stream So you better be there 2 p.m today. But anyway Jerome Powell the lead Geriatric of the situation. he speaks at 2 30 and all of course this is all in ET And not only do we get the decision at two where they're basically like Hey we're we unanimously voted to like, not do any rate hikes.

The real thing is what Jerome Powell says at 2 30. in fact, if you look at how things have played out a lot of the times between 2 and 2 30 and then 2 30 to the rest of the day. not every time, but a lot of the times there's actually a big reversion. Sometimes there's some chops, sometimes there's a continuation, but over the last F handful of Fomc meetings, we've actually seen massive reversions two to two thirties, one move whether bullish or bearish, and then the opposite seems to be occurring from 2 30 to the remainder of the day.

It's not a guarantee. but I Just want to let you guys know about it. So yeah, it's going to be an absolutely wild day on top of the fact that you have some of your favorite tech stocks like Tesla ripping the faces off of people. Absolutely, it's finding it's it's just bear season.

Unlimited tags. They're finding every bear from the giant polar bears to like little cute brown bears. they're just destroying every single one. This is a murderous tirade from the bull.

Camp It's Bulls on Parade and they're running through a little bear. Village That's what's going on right now. and I'm not even saying this metaphorically I'm saying it literally. I Believe, Truly truly I Believe that somewhere in the world right now there are bulls actually murdering bears that I think that's the only thing that explains what's going on.

Maybe you don't have that opinion, but I I very much have that opinion. So anyway, uh, right now let's take a little look you see at the market. Uh, at 8 30 we got a little drop, it popped, but we're down ever so slightly. You might be thinking but hey dude, you said it was hard because you said it was bullish.

Well also, let's be realistic here. Please don't forget the fact that the market has ripped from 381 all the way up to 437 in a couple months. We had the past whatever four days. three days have been hugely bullish, massively bullish.

and actually we're still above yesterday's high. So overall, the Bulls in this time frame. Whatever, the past couple days past couple weeks are still dominant. I would not be looking at this and saying oh wow, it came down a couple points.

That must be the Bears winning. Just wait. today's I would Today's a tough day to trade whenever you have inflation reports, whenever you have Fomc meetings, whenever you have unemployment reports. especially when they're paired together, expect a lot of volatility.

expect a lot of insanity. Expect a lot of chop. Which basically for you means if you're playing it, make sure all of your like your it. I Guess your pre-flight checklist is good.

Be like okay I'm seeing XYZ Maybe you want to leverage down a little bit because this is a very treacherous time, but I mean I get I Honestly think overall that we might be seeing. um I I'm leaning bullish at least up till the Fomc meeting and then at the Fomc meeting, your guess is as good as mine. Uh, here's everything to expect from the Federal Reserve Uh, today. Wednesday With the Fomc meeting, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to take a break and Skip another interest rate hike I think it's a skip I Don't think it's a pause I Don't think we do anything.

My prediction for today is nothing the the number before one, but also after negative one. That's what I think happens today. Following a two-day meeting, the FED will release a statement along with economic and rate projections. So we're getting the Summary of Economic Projections also referred as the Sep.

That's like that weird Dot Plot Where like it kind of sometimes looks like Christmas dreams sometimes it's a lot of that. It's like a big white boring PDF with a bunch of blue dots. That's also massively important and will most likely cause billions of dollars of swings within the market, which is basically all the Fomc like members voting on where they think things are going to be. Each dot is one of those votes and we'd like to see the high, the low, the median.

all that good jazz for all my math nerds out there. Chairman Jerome Powell will then deliver a news conference that which he's expected to take a cautious tone and not rule out future increases. Of course he's not and no one believes he's going to be ruling it out. Fed to pause and keep option to raise rates in July The Dot Plot could give Fomc sentiment on additional Heights The press conference will be tricky for chair pal, so definitely going to be tricky because everyone loves to just Hammer them with questions.

If for those of you who haven't been tracking Pal since like the start of this tenure, at first he was a horrible speaker, they always tripped him up and I don't know, but it just just like wasn't good. He wasn't confident he said things he shouldn't have said and I don't know if they sent him to speaking school or whatever, but now he's almost become like a political master of saying a lot but actually not saying anything at all. but uh, his. Improvement in terms of public speaking and handling all these interviews is actually really really improved.

Frustrating for us because we don't know what's going on because he's saying a lot without saying anything but in terms of his own personal ability I mean public speaking? it's not in. it's not an easy skill set, so I'll give him Applause for that. But anyway, yes, the Dot Plot is going to be massively important that will also be coming out at two. and we're going to be getting an idea of where the FED members see things going in the short to medium to kind of even longer term depending on how you view the passage of time.

If you think it's a linear concept, yeah, might be a little long. the big thing that you're going to be watching for. Look Now that the pause is in your certainty, it's going to be all about the dots today. Be released as long as very quickly.

Sorry to cut her off, whoever she is. These are all individual votes and the numbers might look a little weird here if you're like wait hanging on I like I've heard of five percent I've heard of 5.25 When they're voting, they put it in the middle. so really are. When you look at the FED fund rate, it's actually not ever an exact value like I've been saying we're at five percent, but that's actually five to five point, Two five.

It's always a 25 bips range. That's a just a little bit of a footnote here. So when you vote, that's what it means. Like this means that the FED members were voting like the I don't know what is it 10 fed members.

We're voting on being within that range from five to five point Two five. And here, just to make it a little bit more readable, they're just cutting the number in half just so everyone knows. But anyway, uh, Dove is shock. Uh, June Likely.

So it looks like we're basically looking in terms of this is the likely one. Let's take this. orange, yellow, Whatever it is. A lot.

Our people are expecting most of the votes to be one rate hike higher than where we are right now, but depending on maybe a little bit of a hawkish surprise, maybe more of them end up voting on two rate hikes as in 50 Bips. It obviously could happen in one rate. like. but I'm saying almost like two levels higher.

And then obviously a dovish surprise would be like uh, no. Actually, we might just be good with one. So the the question here is one, two, three. Like, where are we going to end up Because remember, it goes from five to five point, two, five, five point two five to five point five, and 5.5 to 5.75 And who knows.

Maybe it even comes in more crazy that some of them are voting for that upper tranche of 5.75 all the way up to six. So we basically are going to be looking at how many dots are placed and this is all the individual voting members of the Fomc and how Dovish and Or Hawkish they are. Once again, we find that all out at 2 Pm today. Well, is with the decision at 2 Pm.

Now, if they match the March dots, that essentially is telling us that there are no more hikes in the cards, that would be a dovetous reaction. But the thing to watch out for is do they shift higher? Do they shift Higher by 25 basis points showing their one more hike for the rest of the year? Or perhaps the more hawkish outcome? They shift Higher by two more hikes, the other possibilities to watch, or is the dispersion going to widen? We know that there's been some bit of battling between the Hawks and the doves just in the last month, which is really the first time this cycle we've seen some disagreement. Perhaps and just perhaps they keep the dots very similar, but focus on the 2024 dots. Maybe shift those higher in a bid to stay? Say we're at the terminal rate, but we intend to stay at this terminal rate for a bit longer than you expect.

So once again, the expectation for the dot plots is most of the voting members to be in a region that's one tranche above where we are right now. Speaking of which, uh, we are currently in the 5 to 5.25 range. Right here on the bottom of your screen, There's a 94 chance at this, meaning we stay there. Obviously there's a small chance that they Jack it up, but this is where we currently are and the odds are telling us that's likely where we will be staying.

Now, if you fast forward to the next Fomc meeting which is in Late July July 26th, there's as of now a 56 chance that we're going to go up to the next round 5.25 to 5.5 And once again, these odds that when we're talking about the Dot Plot we're looking for most of the voting members to have their dot there. There's also a 4.6 chance of maybe 5.5 in July probably not going to happen and there's a 40 chance of uh for the second in a row counting June if it goes that way, which I really believe it will that there's no rate change whatsoever. My expectation to be very very very clear with all of you is that this meeting no rate hike and Jerome Powell will say a lot of vague stuff leaving the door open for another rate hike in July which I think is more likely than not because Core CPI is remaining sticky and they need to bring that down. Unemployment is too low, the job market is too tight, the economy is still running a bit too hot, and I think them taking this pause is smart because a lot of the times when you raise up the FED fund rate, it takes a while it.

some people say it takes a couple months I Think a lot of people would argue it takes maybe in excess of a full fiscal quarter to truly see and understand and feel the impact of a Fed rate change on the economy. It does not happen instantaneously. It takes a while to permeate throughout the economic and market itself. So with that in mind, I Think the pause is the right move here and we're basically going to have to pay attention to the next.

CPI PPI And Pce reading to understand: is it still remaining sticky? We know it's sticky, but are they finally able to unstick it? Or do they need to be a little bit more aggressive, a little bit more hawkish to take care of the inflation that we are currently battling? It's not just here. European Central Banks said to inch closer to the end of its hiking cycle as inflation slows. That's when it's been pitched to us. so we're like, hey, we thought we were done here, but it does look like we have another one or two more in the barrel I Myself really thought for a while that last one was going to be the final one, but obviously it turns out that that core CPI It's just simply remaining too sticky, especially if you look in this shelter sector.

But anyway, ECB kind of coming to the end I Mean even in the US we're closer to the end than we are to the start obviously, and so is the ECB But the question is, are we all going to have one more two more like? that's kind of the realm that we're in right now. Mortgage demand surges as interest rates ease off of recent eyes, coming down from 6.81 to 6.7 and seven still relative to a year and a half ago. Sky High I Mean not long ago, people were getting it in the threes and we've more than doubled that. Which basically means a lot of people are buying a lot less of a house for the basically the same amount of money.

Now, how are the big boys playing this? How are the people who run? Wall Street Making money off the current situation Ken Griffin ramps up credit bets anticipating U.S Recession Citadel's Flagship hedge fund gained 6.1 percent through May Griffin Expects China GDP to grow more than five percent this year. Ken Griffin The guy who runs Citadel and Citadel Securities once the hedge fund was the market maker Ken Griffin whose hedge fund churned out a record 16 Billy for his clients last year, is increasing his focus on credit trading as he braces for a potential U.S Recession That was just his hedge fund that made 16 Billy The market making service Citadel Securities made Seven Billy So overall, he cleared many, many Billies. We're much more cautious about 2024. We'll look at the credit markets as a source of Opportunity credit should be meaningful contributor later this year Griffin Said his hedge fund is particularly focused on high-yield credit Market With a mixture of long and short strategies, he expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 1 once more this year and pause hikes for an extended period of time.

Citadel's Flagship Wellington fund returned 6.1 percent this year. through the end of May The firm's equities, fixed income and macro Commodities Quant and credit strategies all delivered positive returns last month. Once again, this is all Citadel the hedge fund, not Citadel Security is the market maker I'm sure that one's also up a lot, but these returns are exclusively for the hedge fund, which surprise surprise, always seems to be crushing it. The Citadel Equities Fund gained 7.3 through May with a 1.2 percent last month.

Uh, return. excuse me, it's tactical trading fund Rose 7.1 in the five months and the global fixed income group was up three percent. So crushing it, crushing it. crushing it.

Um, he talked a little bit about China and he thinks it's going to grow a lot and even talked about some emerging markets in Asia Uh. But overall, I did want to share some of his thoughts on just AI because obviously he understands what AI is going to be doing in Wall Street Because he talks to all those people because he's very much intertwined in that world because He runs the world's largest market-making firm. Griffin Said generative AI Intelligence is transforming finance and improving the productivity of investment professionals and software. Engineers People need to be trained for the new wave of innovation to prepare for adverse effects on the job market.

This is something that we've talked about a lot, but with any massive new technology. Yeah, a lot of jobs are destroyed, but also new jobs are created. It's unbelievable how enthralled people are by generative. AI Historically, technology, technological innovation has led to the creation of more jobs.

The issue is how these Technologies adversely impact certain sectors of the economy and certain types of jobs disproportionately. Yes, it will, and that's what's happening with technology. It's going to kill old jobs, but yes, it will create new ones. So I Think for anyone, especially if you're a younger professional, riding that wave is most likely a smart move.

However, Griffin Said the current generation of large language models will not yet make a meaningful impact on Citadel's trading strategies. This is in response to like Is Citadel Using it now. And yeah, a lot of these major companies, whether it's hedge funds, market makers, tech companies, or any other company. really, they're all starting to dabble in it.

But no one's saying that like it's completely transformed yet because we're still in the early stages. Obviously, there's a bit of a hype cycle in terms of the market, but also just in terms of human interest. And I think that hype cycle will come down. But overall, I think AI is here to stay I Truly do not believe that it's in a flash in the pan situation by any means.

Uh, so right now I think it's something to watch over the next couple years as it continues to grow in terms of sophistication, but also in terms of usability and just really, probably popularity. EU charges Google with anti-competitive practices in Ad Tech business. So I have two individual company updates for you, the EU coming against Google Uh, basically just accusing them of monopolistic practice practices when it comes to how they run their ad business. and that's probably a fair argument.

AMD reveals new AI chip to challenging videos dominance AMD said it's forthcoming most advanced CPU For artificial intelligence the Mi 300X will start shipping to some customers later this year. Amd's announcement on Tuesday represents the strongest challenge, show and video which currently dominates the market for AI chips Nvidia doesn't dominate it's whatever word is more impactful than that. Nvidia it controls plus 80 percent of the dedicated chip Market when it comes to Gpus, So yeah, um, you could argue even them right now like kind of monopolistic. There's just no reasonable competitor.

even companies that are making their own such as Google still buy in videos because Nvidia ships are just simply that much better. So obviously I'm gonna be a fan of competition because it just it's better for the consumer. It also drives more technological development, so it's nice to see if AMD can pull this off. but we're gonna have to wait to see how good this trip truly is, especially on a relative basis to Nvidia's Trump urges prosecutors to drop case offers defense preview.

So in case you've been living under a rock, yesterday, the former president of the U.S Donald Trump was uh, officially arraigned in a federal Miami Court he obviously says no way Jose I am not guilty I'm doing what Pence does I'm doing what Biden does And then the argument against them and I'm not taking inside here. But the argument against them is like, well, when they found out they had classified high level National Security documents, they contacted the authorities right away while he seemed to kind of play a little bit of a game of cat and mouse, but here's what's uh, no, actually, we're not going to listen to that when we're going to read this. Donald Trump Urged prosecutors to drop the charges against him and insisted on his innocence in his first public remarks. following his arraignment and federal court over mishandling classified materials this day will go down in infamy.

Trump Claimed that he had the right to keep the boxes of materials found in his Mar-A-Lago Resort in Florida while President Joe Biden and others who kept records weren't prosecuted. Biden however, returned those documents willingly once they were discovered. I'm not the one who thinks I'm above the law I'm the one that followed the law. It's Joe Biden in his corrupt Department of Injustice who think they are above the law.

so I mean classic rhetoric from Trump. Maybe you agree with that? Maybe you don't But overall, it's still a story that's important to follow because the guy is currently the front runner for the Republican side in the upcoming election. Trump Indictment Live Updates: Ex-president raises money for campaign after arraignment. You know whether you like him or you don't, The dude knows how to raise money.

The guy knows how to make a splash and that's exactly what he's doing. and he's raising money off of it. He raised money off of his last legal kerfuffle. Millions and millions of dollars are flowing into the guy's campaign.

You have to at least be. Maybe you don't like it, but you have to at least be impressed by his ability to get money. Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes dingy Ding ding ding today Wednesday June 14th which happens to be not only an inflation day, but in Fomc day as well. So happy Inflation slash Fomc Day To all those who celebrate, will the FED stay put? Most likely AMD Challenges and video.

We talked about that backlash at: Google Obviously antitrust in EU Twilight for oil Oil's been taken a bit of a hit recently, especially because the increase in the Russian Supply but uh, very very recently. Like over the past day, we've actually seen a pop from like 6768 back up to 70. So that's where oil's sitting at per barrel and Trump in court. we already went over that.

But wait, there's one more. I Do want you to know about the seasonality of today the S P 500 seasonal buys for today Wednesday June 14th. The Bulls have wanted to say 52 percent of the time the profit factor is 1.24 so it pays to be a bull and the bias is obviously leaning towards the Bulls that's buying an open selling and close based on the S P 500 futures Market which actually opens up at 6 PM ET the night before and then closes at 5 PM ET the next day. It's a 23 hour cycle referred to as the Globex session.

but based on that the Bulls have they're they they're slightly favored. but um, it's not absurdly bullish. I would just say leaning bullish just above neutral if that helps anyone else out there. Um, on that note, I do want to keep you apprised of my current positions.

Let me open up my account as of now: I have spy 438 June 13 calls and I have Target 125 June 23rd puts I misspoke with the Spy they're both for June 23rd. so June 23rd spy calls June 23rd Target puts those are my two current live positions just so everyone knows and what else. There's one more thing I needed to get into. obviously.

shout out to Streetpeat for sponsoring today's stream. if you haven't already, show them a bit of love pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Uh, speaking of AI in training and all that, if you want to get into the world of trading with AI, Street Beat is probably the easiest way to do it. Your AI co-pilot to invest in the stock market.

Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezies. Download the app. You can click on the link pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. You can just download it from the app store or whether it's your Apple store or the Play Store You could just scan that QR code.

get it however you want, but just search Street get it on your phone. It's free to download When you are signing up on the very first page, put in the code mat, it'll have a referral link thing put in the code m-a-t-t and when you do so based on the size of your initial deposit, you'll get anywhere from five to five thousand dollars as a bonus. and I mean I was looking at mine. My strategies are killing it right now now.

if you want, if you're like hey, I still want to buy and sell my own stock, you totally can. But you could also leverage AI as your co-pilot They already have some pre-built strategies for earnings for Congress for top government contracts that type of a thing Bond one that's doing pretty well I'm using some of those, but then I also made some of my own. you've seen my videos before I'm like hey, um, like talking to the AI co-pilot in street but I'm like, hey, make me one that's going to take advantage of like AI ripping to the upside. So I have an AI strategy I have, um, a value one for the undervalued ones in the S P 500.

But right now with this recent Market rip, my Street Beat account is screaming to the upside. actually I want to see what we're up right now? Uh, how much are we up? Let me I'm just looking at my own Street Beat account really, really quickly and I know some of you have also been dominating it. So congratulations I want to see my portfolio? Oh, here it is. Here, It is here.

It is here. It is. The Bond ladder. One is up two percent, the top government contract recipients is up 1.86 My Honey Badger Uh, I have one account.

this is one. I made those first two. The Bond ladder and the top government contracts were created by the Street B team. But then I made my own I have one called Honey Badger and it was the value gems that's up nine percent and I also have the value Hunter 200 which is up 4.45 and my one that's down.

but I put the least amount of money into it was my oil one. um I wanted an oil dividend one and it's just oils falling too much uh too and that's down right now 4.55 But other than that I mean I had the most money in the Bond ladder which is looking at a seven percent YTM which is like just absolutely awesome so that one's crushing it. actually I should probably be putting more money into this account. The one that's really ridiculous is some of their AI ones that I saw some of you guys have built like up 30 40 I mean I know some of you are really, really, uh, crushing it right now, so check it out! Absolutely awesome! There's no tool like this available on any other retail Account app Brokerage anything like that Street Beat I Believe they actually own the patent on it, so I don't think we even will be seeing it elsewhere, but it really really is awesome.

So if we have some time today, I'll make sure to show you out some of the uh I'll highlight some of the specifics. So anyway, check it out, download the app, put in that code map on that note, let's take a little look you see at the market. we see Tesla vomiting a little bit. we see Nvidia vomiting a little bit but things have just been Rip City Like when I say vomiting I'm looking at the 50 minute chart here.

but if you look at the daily chart I mean Tesla Not long ago was sub 200. it's trading at 260. the Spy was 380 trading at 437. you have Nvidia that not long ago was at 305.

It's now what 405 technically 406 but it just sounded better if I said 405. I mean that's a 33 gain ever since it's earnings like some of these stocks are just absolutely crushing it. So I guess on that note because we did start a bit early today I'm kind of through everything I wanted to do for the setup. We got the PPI number similar to yesterday's CPI number came in cooler than expected.

My bias at least up until the Fomc meeting is a little bit of chop, but more so bullish. I mean the London session was bullish. The market. clearly the trend is bullish and as basic as just looking at some of these exponential moving averages.

Remember, the yellow is the 10 period and the red is the 20 period. but if you just look at what's going on uh, the daily obviously bullish if you look at the four hour bullish, if you look at the two hour bullish, if you look at the 30 minute bullish if you look at the 15 minute maybe crossing right now. But let's see how we open up because it might push it up or it might drag it back down. Uh, the five minutes.

So everything from the 30 minute upward these larger time frames are still supporting the bull thesis. now. obviously, for things to change, they first have to change on the lowest time frame. Uh, but even this I mean I don't know I I'm leaning a bit bullish Maybe choppy up until the Fomc results that come out.

2PM Yes, I will be streaming it after that. I mean your guess is as good as mine because I'm really just expecting crazy crazy. Insanity Now when I'm saying I'm leaning bullish I'm exclusively basing that on price action. Do I think the Market's overvalued? Yes.

Do I think one of these days, maybe soon, the Market's going to take a swift kick to the ball sack. Yes, 100. But I'm reflecting on some of my losing spy puts and cue puts from last week and I'm realizing that even though I had that strong opinion which I don't think anyone who's doing a fundamental breakdown would disagree with me. Yes, things are overvalued, but it comes back to the argument of the market can remain illogical longer than any of us can remain solvent.

And that's the lesson. Even though you have a thought and it might be fundamentally based, the market can do crazy things. and that's why price action is what rules the roost right now. kind of cutting out everything of inflation and earnings in this prediction and that strategist and this headline and that if you keep it as simple as looking at the price action, we're ripping up.

We're making higher highs. We're making higher lows I Mean right. This is the Spy We are making higher highs, We are making higher lows. and eventually I Do think we take a hit, but it's just if you did it right now.

like I Try to bet that our breakdown was going to be in here in early June and it simply wasn't. We double topped I Hope that was a good sign for me. We never made a fresh flow. we started ripping and I just got absolutely destroyed.

Even though things are fundamentally overvalued, that's going to happen in the market. It's one thing to have a fundamental thesis, but it's a completely different thing for your fundamental thesis to currently be aligning with the price action. And right now those are not congruent. We have price action.

Ripping Ripping Ripping. Eventually the Bears are going to have their day. It just does not seem to be around this time period. Maybe depending on what pal says, he might start to crush it.

but we're gonna have to wait for what pow ends up actually saying it. So on that note, let me drop this to the one minute chart. Um, let me know what you guys want to talk about. Gme had a nice run yesterday, but it's flat this whole morning so we can kind of switch that one out.

Uh, but questions, comments, concerns we we have. usually we don't have this long, but I have about 15 minutes for a little chit chat. A little bit of an AMA so what's on everyone's Minds Let me switch it over to this so we can get the chat up. Uh, while I'm waiting for your questions to come in, uh, there we go.

That loaded up. Perfect for a second there. that chat was not. The rumble chat wasn't up, uh, questions, comments, concerns while I'm waiting for those to flow in if you haven't already.

I Would greatly appreciate it if you could destroy the like button. Uh, we're at 300 on YouTube we could easily Jack that up to 500 and what are we at on Rumble on Rumble we're at 2.5 k watching. we're only at 100 likes. We could easily get that to 250.

on Rumble it helps out with the battle. Leaderboard gets us promoted to more people. on YouTube it helps us out with the algorithm. You hitting the like button doesn't cost a thing, but very very much helps me out.

So if you enjoyed this type of content, this daily coverage of what's going on. live trading, really weird jokes about my body looking like a bag of mayonnaise. if that's your kind of thing, this is the place for you to be. And also don't forget to subscribe.

Once again, liking subscribing completely free and if you want show a little bit of love to Streep eat it is free to download Rumble has no like button yet does have it has a thumbs up. That's the equivalent of the like button. I think they're both thumbs UPS aren't they on both YouTube and Rumble I think they're both thumbs UPS Does mayo come in a bag? It does when I'm the bag? uh when Trump Goes to Jail Do you think the market would tank, rip or stay normal? Nice shirt? Um I really don't know I think it would be dependent dependent on what's going on I find it hard to believe he would go to jail for this. I do believe what he did was wrong, but I also believe what Biden and Pence did were wrong I think all of them having documents in a place where they're not supposed to be is simply wrong.

but I don't think we are currently in a political social environment that would allow Trump to go to prison I Think there would be societal chaos and I think the judges are very aware of that. That's just my opinion. Um, obviously we could talk about it more seriously if that seems to be an actual reality. But as of now I don't think that's a likely outcome.

I'm not going to put a zero percent chance on it. Uh, but I Just don't think that's gonna happen. Can you please share thoughts on Verizon and its options I don't I haven't been watching Verizon So I don't know if I could like fairly I could look at the technicals on it but I don't track this. um looks like the Bears are winning man.

Um, if I had to play this I would buy puts on this breakdown of 3536 and my risk would simply be I don't know. Maybe my risk would be 36. that's how we do it. It doesn't seem to move much like these are small movements.

so I it's just not that interesting of a play to me. I Would look for plays that have a bit more range, a bit more volatility because remember, you make money off of Trends You need moves to make money. There's two ways to really make money. You either bet big money on small moves or you bet your normal size and go for big moves.

So big money small moves or small money big moves I'm more in the ladder camp and I just don't see I don't Verizon just doesn't really move that much. Even these quote unquote pumps are just a four dollar move. It's just not much there. it's not that active.

it's not that popular of a stock. um, coin somehow still not dying Target getting somewhat of a bounce. a little bit of an overshot here. Would like Target to come back down Netflix crushing it at 4 30.

I Took my profits a little early, but hey, profits nonetheless Tesla has just not stopped ever since May 16th rum holding above 10. Uh, would love to see it re-test 11. this was a massively important level. There's really no part of me that surprised it got rejected on the first time.

I'm curious about the second and or potentially third test just because like 11 would be a big big breakout. So this rejection not really surprising to me. I'm looking to see if it could build a base off this previous resistance. We bounce off of that and then get going.

I Think that would be a pretty awesome setup. Is it time to short? Tesla I mean do so at your own risk I'm never going to tell anyone to buy or sell anything I'm sharing what I'm doing because I like to share my thoughts and opinions I hope you can learn something off of me I hope I can learn something off of you but nothing I ever say should be construed as like a buyer sell like that's for people who have a proven career or borderline or are legitimate expert Traders I'm not an expert Trader folks I'm 28. There's no way I can have a long story career on Wall Street or as a Trader when literally my age prohibits that I have some winning trades I have some losing trades I Do this to share my thoughts and opinions and ideally become a better Trader investor and I enjoy talking with you I enjoy the community we've built. but I'm like not like I know a lot of people try to sell their like signal service of like hey I see this like you should go along, you should go short.

All I do is share what I'm doing. That's it And it's never ever meant to be construed. it's like hey, you should follow me I just share my thoughts I like to brag about my winning ones and I like to sweep my losing ones under the rug because hey, that's what the best content creators do, right? That's what the best content creators do, right? What do we have? We're a hundred likes Away on YouTube From our goal folks, you have nine minutes to put a big smile on my face to see if we can hit that like goal before the market even opens, before the market even opens. And where are we at? It's just it Rumbles.

You're just not giving it to me today. Rumble's like oh wait no, it took a while to load. we're almost there. 90 more on local or excuse me on Rumble which own locals sign up for the locals community.

All right. All right. All right. So uh, as we were waiting for that market to go diggity ding ding ding yesterday, you guys saw me doing some degenerate day trading on the Futures market and it ended up pretty well.

I almost doubled that account because there wasn't much money in there so it wasn't hard to double. I think it went from 700 to 1300 and I now have that 1300 and I fully plan on degenerately trading it again with all of you. Um, and I kind of want to use some of the Larry Williams ICT methodology. It seems like that all has like a couple people's like major call outs.

I don't know, there's I I don't want to ascribe that methodology to one individual person because it seems like there's a couple major influences on it, but whatever we'll call it. ICT For the purpose of this, this will be day two. I'm by no means an expert if anything I'm properly described as a novice I've now spent two nights of my life consuming as much of that content as I possibly can just to see if I could understand the methodology. Is it good? I don't know, Is it bad I don't know.

it's only day two. for me, it's day day too. I Find a lot of the times that it's easy whenever you find any strategy or methodology to have a little bit of hopium because everyone wants this concept of like a great amazing strategy that is going to completely change your life. and I bet even though I'm not an expert.

Trader I've been around the game long enough to know that generally if something sounds too good to be true, especially when it comes to making you money it, it typically is. like, let's just be honest with each other. If someone really had that good of a whatever, uh, an outgo to trade or anything like that, well, why are they tal