Hitting it big in my life. Hmm. Why do I see no chat? hello hello hello hello hello. Testing Testing Testing testing.

Oh Am I live. This internet's frustrating. My apologies I hope you can I don't know if I'm alive. if I am, it's probably really sketchy.

Anything Anything whatsoever from me. someone sleep a bit much. No, this is fighting with the oh wait I see some chats. Good morning, good morning.

Oh all right, it feels like we're maybe getting somewhere. What did I just change the Market's about to open so that's something. Uh am I like choppy Am I coming through all right. So a couple big things Jobs report came out this morning.

More initial jobless claims than expected be by a few 10. Uh now I'm getting some break hours. Oh Google going down. Um, initial jobless claims higher than expected.

Obviously bad for the economy. We live in the upside down world so what's bad for the economy? Good for the market. So it's 8 30. you saw a little bit of a pop in the market.

Um, so that's interesting. Uh, also the big news I Guess at least from the meme world is Gme which is currently down. How much is Gme getting clobbered? 21 closed out the day at roughly 26 and now it like opened at 20, pushing to 21. uh, if you don't know about what's going on there.

it was like kind of a surprise announcement. What we had was Matt Furlong the previous CEO is no longer the CEO and now Ryan Cohen was voted up to be the Executive Chairman or something like that. So people obviously I mean look at the market. not happy with what's going on with Gme.

Uh I have all the positions I don't even know if my Weeble is gonna open this internet is it's something? Hang on. Let me see. can you? I don't know. Can you guys hear me All right? Like is this volume fine? Do I need to get it closer? Where are we? Where are we? Where are we? Where are we? Where are we? Dude? I am not loading anything I have no idea if anyone could even hear me of what's going on right now.

Um I was literally about to check my phone, but that's silly. Positions: Is this ever gonna unlock? Okay I still have my spy puts my spy coats my coin plus my Q puts, my teal puts, my target puts my Nvidia puts and my Netflix calls one two three four five, six seven, eight positions. Two four six eight? Yeah. eight positions still.

Um, yesterday they all started as red. Now a few of them are green, but uh, based on open I'm definitely down a pretty penny right now. Oh wait, something's loading through on YouTube I Don't know if it's loading through on Rumble right now. let's see.

Let's see. Let's see. let's see So Jamie Getting slaughtered Uh Ryan Cohen Uh I Do want to let you know. Uh, the main reason I was trying to get this is uh, there's no major Market events for tomorrow Friday June 9th In terms of just the scheduled announcements and things of that nature, nothing scheduled.

Also, nothing scheduled on Monday as well. So both Friday Monday a little bit quiet. We do have some earnings. The major earnings for tomorrow is Neo.

So for the EV players out there just want you to know that Neo Uh, let me see if there's any I don't think there's any major or eligible I Know there's no major earnings for Monday but let's see if there's some smaller companies I don't think so. Let me see if there's anything for market. close today. market closed today's DocuSign if anyone's playing that and then when the Market opens tomorrow, we have Neo There's also a company called Duckhorn Maybe I should be looking into Duckhorn portfolio.

What is Duckhorn portfolio? The Duckhorn portfolio corporate trade and media site five continents, 50 countries duckord Vineyards trades at 13. It trades under the ticker Napa and APA Now my Weeble wants to update. Are you kidding me? Do this. Internet Situation is brutal.

It's brutal. It's brutal I might be streaming to like a person right now. my Mom hey Mom later. we'll update that later.

Um, oh man oh man. All right, where are we at Spy? I mean 427's been the magnet. It yesterday sold from above 429 down to 427 and stayed there. Finally broke down a little bit.

but you it was essentially fought at that level as much as it possibly could. and uh, now Netflix is going down. How's Nvidia doing? Dude, everything's going the wrong way for me this morning. Maybe I should have just not looked at the markets.

Maybe I should have just pretend that none of this existed. Anyway, the Spy Watch 427 if it can get above it, hold above it, that's going to be showing some strength. uh, stays below if that's gonna be showing some weakness. But the major thing I Wanted to explain to everyone everyone if anyone's watching right now I don't know how this is working is um, I'll try to post it in locals and really what I'll do is try to film a video that specifically explains it.

But if you guys aren't a member of locals, get on there because I'll be able to show like more of the charts and everything. Obviously I'm streaming on the phone right now at Market Close today. technically it's Market open tomorrow. technically at Market open tomorrow for the Futures Market there's seasonal weakness if you look at the Es and I showed you this information starting on Monday and then Tuesday and I really try to hone in on it yesterday.

I will attempt if the upload speed works I have an independent video that I'm going to try to get up to you, so make sure you're paying attention to that. that'll be coming up tonight explaining the exact math of it. But the tldr is this when the Market opens tomorrow technically Friday but when the Futures Market opens, it's the night before because it trades on the Globex session, it changed 23 hours out of the day it doesn't open at 9 30 a.m ET it opens up at 6 PM the night before. So technically at 6 pm tonight, East Coast time even though I'm not on that time now, which is kind of brutal, you go short and that's your entry when the Market opens at 6 pm tonight in the Futures market.

So technically Market open. Obviously, if you're trying to play like the Spy or SPX, you'd probably do it at market close today because that's closed 4 pm to 6 p.m. like you're not gonna like lose too much there in like just time. Um, but anyway, you'd go short at open basically tonight right before the market closes.

In terms of the normal Market or if you're a Futures Market Trader right when the Market opens this evening, you would hold it for Max two days. That's one way to get out. the other way to get out. that is if tomorrow by the end of the day, if at the end of the day on Friday, you're profitable as in if Friday is a red day, you would take that.

So you get in when the Market opens. However, we want to Define Friday here. I Know there's like a little bit of confusion with the Futures Market this that the other thing basically for the Spy SPX that market close today if you're a future Trader when it opens tonight at 6 PM You hold it for one full day and then if that's profitable, you get out. If it's not, you hold it for another full day.

I.E What would be Monday That's the trade. This has a 76 accuracy over the past 25 years. So over the past two and a half decades this is not perfect. But every three out of four years it does hit.

Is this a guarantee? Absolutely not. It's a guarantee. I'm giving you the odds of this situation. There's a 25 chance based on historic data that it doesn't work.

Then there's a 75 chance based on historic data that it does work. I'm playing it. Obviously I'm playing it. but technically I'm not making the position I'm just rolling a position I already have into it.

and that relates to some other strategies that, like we've been building out in the back end that I just got short a little bit early. Um, was that the smart move not feeling so much this morning? I Mean if we can end up cracking some of these pre-market lows I would feel much much better about my life. Let me try to bring some of these levels up. If you're playing the Spy What? I do This is just not loading.

Nothing's loading. Where's my account? Where is my account? uh, thinking thinking thinking okay I can make it somewhat simple Uh, we're looking for. Obviously, we're battling it up at 427 on the spot. That's exactly where we are about now.

Above that seems pretty strong if it can hold great if we go below it. Maybe a sign of weakness, but I think the snap and hold below 426 basically sets up a downside. Gap fill to 422.93 Um, that that? Gap if you're looking for it on the daily chart is between Thursday June 1st and then obviously Friday June 2nd the difference between the high on the Thursday and the low on the Friday. there's a gap there.

The downside: Gap bill is down to the high on Thursday Once again June 1st which is 422.92 That would be my target, especially if some of my Internet situation is still sus those puts I have I have spy puts I have cute puts I don't know if I'd be unloading all of them there, but I would be unloading a high high high majority of my current puts there and just to remind everyone, just to keep the transparency going: I have spy puts 4 25 June 16th spy puts 423 June 16th coin puts June 16th 40 strike Q puts 347 June 23rd Those ones are actually crushing it right now. They were doing way better yesterday. Tio puts those sucked Target puts those aren't paying right now. but I have till the 23rd Target TGT 125 for June 23rd Nvidia 350s for June 23rd.

they're actually in the green now. forever those have been in the red but I'm finally in the green on the embedded 350. plus for June 23rd. and the last thing I have are Netflix calls 450 for July 21st.

So the only one in July is Netflix All the rest are either like June 16th and June 23rd. kind of equally split between those two. Why can I not read your chat? I don't know if you have questions or not. uh uh uh.

I am looking for on the queues just because I give you the Spy levels. I might as well give you the Q levels. the cues Had a pretty bad day yesterday. My next Target is basically 346.50 347.

if we hold the if the market is held below 350 I would feel extremely confident about that. but once again, I'm targeting the low of Wednesday May 31st which is 346.50 with a little bit of a leeway. So that's my price Targets on the queues previously that was my price Targets on the Spy um Gme is that one still getting slaughtered? If we look at the Es, it is bouncing a little bit. If you are a Futures Trader basically I'm watching that pre-market level of 4263.

if that snaps I think we are golden on the put side today. I know I spoke A lot about the seasonality for tomorrow and the market events and earnings and all that. but I want you to know that today's seasonality it is posted in locals I'm a hesitant to bring up another web page, but we'll give it a whirl. you know when in Vegas you might as well give everything a try.

You guys are already done I mean nice stream this morning dude I'm my apologies, but hey, at least we got something going at least I Know you guys I think it's good for us as a community for me to grow and for us to grow for you guys to grow. For you to see this because I know a lot of you come to me and you're like dude, this is the most professional Finance show speaker just put together entertainment like I know you guys in your mind you think of me as like you're like this guy like 18 piece suit. he's always ready, he's on time, he gets up, he does the skin care routine perfectly like uh Purdue show perfectly spoken show but it's nice I want you guys to know that I'm not perfect sometimes I end up swearing sometimes I end up saying the wrong word sometimes I end up not having Internet so it's nice to peel back that Veil if that makes sense like I just um that Perfection level that you guys have for me where you're just like it's perfect. all of the time.

He never drops any pens. Um, it's nice that you guys know. Yeah, no. I this pen which I haven't picked up yet.

There's a good chance by the end of the show I Do drop it and that's most likely Kelly Ripa Still will not invite me on, but anyway, we got I digress: The seasonality for today Thursday June 8th The Bulls have won it 48 of the time. Once again, this is based on Two and a Half Decades of just data that I have, uh, the profit Vector is 1.02 As in neutral. Every dollar spent has only returned a dollar and two cents. So slightly positive.

So the bias is clearly neutral if you're on the locals Community it's already there. If you want to be on the local community, it's in the description of the video I think I don't even know if I filled out the description of the video. But really, things get exciting tomorrow and Monday in all reality, today, tomorrow Monday are all kind of quiet days. like yeah, we might get some solid price action in One Direction or the other.

That's obviously totally possible, but we're not expecting any large events. Next week, it starts to get nuts on Tuesday We get the CPI report, the Consumer Price Index report. Obviously, that's also the start of the Fomc meeting. Remember those Fomc meetings where they decide the FED fund rate? Are they going to hike it up? Are they going to bring it down? Are they going to go sideways That starts on Tuesday It's a Tuesday meeting or two-day meeting as in it goes into Wednesday So that starts on Tuesday But it it's not public or anything like that starts on Tuesday that morning, so we'll probably end up do.

We definitively will end up doing an early stream. We get the next inflation report, then going into Wednesday we're going to get the results of the Fomc meeting. It comes out in the afternoon. If you're on New York time we get the results at 2 pm then Jerome Powell the chairman of the FED will be speaking at 2 30.

as of now, I Don't know if anyone asked it, but if someone did, it's an absolutely phenomenal question. Absolutely phenomenal question. As of now, as things currently stand, before we head into next week's CPI report on Tuesday the Fomc, we get the producer President X on Wednesday jeez. Then we get initial jobless claims on Thursday retail sales uh, minus autos and then consumer sentiment on Friday That's all for next week.

So anyway, go CPI PPI retail sales and consumer sentiment with the Fomc meeting in the middle of all that, but as things currently stand, there's a 75 chance 75 chance of no rate hike this meeting. which is kind of interesting because that's definitely I get some message or an expectation that has dramatically shifted over the past two weeks. Going into this just because we were getting various signs that the economy was hot. Now remember, economy hot means inflation and the FED right now they understand that they're at risking really hurting the stock market and the economy, but their main goal is to take care of inflation right now.

So going into this just because we got somewhat strong signs from the economy, they're like okay, we're probably going to get another 25 bibs and then sometime about last week or maybe it was the end of the week Before that there were various Fed members that are saying yeah, most likely we're going to raise, but why not take a breather for this meeting? And that's been the going rhetoric of what's going on with the Fed, the Fomc, and really the Central Bank in our government and everything, especially with the craziness of the debt ceiling. Everyone's like why add in like a whole nother potential uh, I don't know Catalyst to the downside. So then all of a sudden particularly led by I would say Harker was like one of the main ones that first started to bring it up, just a voting Fed member who was all about like yeah, no, let's just take a breather and everyone's like okay and then Jefferson the governor Uh, so basically we had the FED president from Philadelphia and we also had the FED Governor Jefferson um started to bring up this concept of maybe we just pause and we're in no way indicating that we're going to stop right here. but let's just pause for a little bit and ever since then, the odds of no rate change.

we're not going up. We're not going down, just keeping it flat. Um, the odds for that spiked and they are holding Obviously now I know I'm saying this on Thursday June 8th and there's a lot of things that can happen between now in the meeting specifically that CPI report that's coming out the morning of the first day of the Fomc meeting next Tuesday So definitely pay attention to that day. it's going to be crazy.

Um, we are waiting for the results of that, but it does seem like the CME what is this the technically the CME fed washu. It hasn't been wrong in like seven or eight of the like. The last things like they're pretty spot on and it's just basing it off the bond yield market. So anyway, 75 chance that there's no rate hike at this meeting.

But what's interesting is if you fast forward to July 26 July 26th, there is actually a 48 chance of a 25 bits rate hike, a 12 chance of a 50 bips right hike. and that leads to over 39 chance of no change at all. And that's for the July meeting at the end of July July 26th just so everyone knows. And then we skip August and then the next one's in September For anyone here who cares about that kind of stuff, Um, so today tomorrow Monday All a little bit quiet and I think it's the Calm before the storm I think we're currently in the eye of the hurricane.

The goal in question here is: is this hurricane particularly bullish? Is it a red or a green hurricane? or is it the other side of it? Is it a red bad? bearish hurricane? Uh, your guess is as good as mine All I can tell you is especially uh if you're swing trading day trading. Yeah, you got to be paying attention to this stuff. But for me I've been trying to be a little bit more disciplined I Feel like recently over the past six, seven weeks the only times have fully gone off the rails is with, uh, some of that Chasey Nvidia stuff. but looking at Nvidia now I'm actually feeling pretty good if Nvidia stays below 380 which is at 379 now I'm gonna be feeling pretty good about that.

The Spy is coming down. it's at 426 right now. In real time, we are getting close now. I Do I mean I wish I could show you my chart right now.

Uh, we are coming up to the pre-market low I Just even though I'm bearish I have put I have lots of puts I have eight positions. Seven of them are favoring the Bears only have one that's favoring the Bulls. Even with that I do want everyone to be careful of these like classically or more so recently we've been seeing these classic fake out breakouts as when we come up to resistance, we break above it, people get trapped into it. and really it's the smart people who are buying down here.

they're selling to the suckers right past the breakout level and then it comes back down and then on the flip side. same thing we've been getting bear shot. we break down below a support people are great. time to hop into the train and then it pops right back up.

So that's what I'm watching right now, especially in the Futures market for the S P 500 or spy straight up is there's this pre-market low at 4262.75 in the Futures Market If you're trading the Spy it's a little bit closer to 425.75 Just be careful that it's not a fake outbreak out like I Don't know if I'd be chasing there because if you are shorting right at that level, you're basically shorting at the low of the day and like kind of praying to the market Lords above that it's going to keep going. So just exercise a little bit caution there. we're right now at 426 I mean for me I like I'm letting you know that I have uh no, Are you out of my eight positions? Three of them were green but now only two are That's a bummer. Ah shucks, Oh shucks.

Uh, what are we doing? Not cool man. not cool. At least the cue puts are looking good. The cue puts are up 42.

If you're curious about any of these traits, they're all in locals. Or if you have any more in-depth questions, feel free to reach out to me. I'm in Instagram Twitter Locals dmoa a MySpace dmoa you can catch me on AIM Um I probably could be found at your local Texas Roadhouse shouldn't be that hard to track me down. Um, let me see if I can somehow get your questions up because that is too small for me to read.

do I need to break out the old bifocals? uh no. still can't read that at all. Where are we? Red tide? not even 7? A.M and streaming for us? That's a lot of dude. I've been up for hours at this point.

my body's still like, obviously on East Coast time. Um oh dude. this has nothing to do with the market. How did I not bring this up before? This is arguably the most important thing we should be talking about.

Everyone shut your mouth. Everyone just shut. shut your mouth. Right now, have you guys seen the new Amazon Prime Jury show? Uh I Don't want to give anything away Amazon Prime What's the name of it? Uh, Jury Duty Jury duty.

Have you guys seen jury duty? I Downloaded the first season and I watched most of it on the flight I watched half of it on a flight. It is one of the funniest shows ever known to man. Not like if you are looking for something to watch I am telling you watch Jury Duty it's on. Amazon Prime and it does nothing but make me like giggle like a little girl.

It is so freaking funny it's on. Amazon Prime It's called Jury duty. You can watch it I mean I Downloaded the whole thing I'm gonna be finishing it up on the flight back and it's the premise of it is basically obviously relates to a jury jury duty. They're hearing some case except it's all fake.

It's all fake except for one person. Everyone's an actor in the show. They're all in the note except for one person and it is so funny. The things that they do and they just make it crazy and they're like recording a real person's reaction and then everyone else is basically an improv master and they're like two days is so so freaking funny.

I'm telling you, watch it. It's not a spoiler. that's like literally the premise of the show. but I'm not going to tell you anything that happens in it.

It's so so funny. so so funny. Um, so definitely. Uh, give that a whirl.

What's the other one that I was watching an Apple TV show called Platonic um with what's her name Rose Byrne Rose Byron Rose Rose Something Rose rose Byron Yeah, she's an Australian actress. Rose Byron Um, she's with Seth Rogen she's five six. she has two parents and siblings. She's 43.

she looks great for 43. she honestly looks great for any age. and she has a trip anyway. that's a good one too.

That one's called Platonic. it's on Apple TV that's the other thing that I downloaded to watch on the flight. Um, so that's uh, something important I wanted to share with all of you because I thought you guys should all know uh Nvidia is going up which I don't like the Spy did vomit bouncing a little bit now bouncing right off of 426. like I was kind of saying it needs to get below and hold below 426 but I'm very much watching that the pre-market low of four whatever it is 25, uh, 75 and then on the cues in a similar situation I'm watching 347.50 but you know my targets.

You know my spy downside Target it's that downside Gap fill. You know my Q Target is that recent low from the end of May Whatever the low was on May 31st uh Nvidia I Wanted to get this downside Gap filled to me if I look on the daily chart of Nvidia I'm still feeling somewhat okay because yesterday was a vomit of a day, but I'll feel much more comfortable when it gets below and stays below 366. Uh, how's Gme doing Jamie gap down and not doing the best so uh, run up in anticipation. Hit 26 yesterday.

currently trading at 21 just got slaughtered. um firing Matt Furlong Uh, who was the recent? CEO now you have Ryan Cohn I Don't I mean I know a lot of you in here obviously know about Ryan Cohen and who he is. So for those of you who do uh I feel like the support around him and it kind of was made evident by just what happened. Uh, seems to really, really really be dwindling, really be dwindling? Um, is that just me or are you guys like of that similar opinion here where it just feels like ever since the Bed Bath and Beyond debacle I Don't think anyone like is still viewing him the way Reddit originally viewed him with GameStop that's how I thought about it.

but I don't know I wanna I'm asking your Gme dead? well bed bath is definitely done. Uh, spy once again looking pretty freaking weak. um I'm really feeling this. If it can go below 426, that's your first warning shot if it goes below and stays below that 425.75 the pre-market low Uh Look Out Below Look Out Below Willy Amazon was crushing it for some reason I Got A notification from Street Beat of some sort of upgrade to: Amazon Let me see if I can find it for all of you.

All of you, All of you, All of you, Who when do I have to check out of this hotel by? Um, when do I have to? Uh, Street Beat New Street New Street News Um, what is this? Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau Slims Google Meta for bullying tactics against legislation requiring payment to Publishers for Content Uh Trudeau is an asshat Uh Signet Jewelers Sales decline 9.3 percent year over year beating Sms Okay thought I saw something about Amazon uh higher than expected unemployment claims raise concerns for the labor market US Dollar Index follows gold prices rise. Gold was almost bouncing off at 2 000. Wasn't it gold? Futures GC Yeah. Gold actually might be an interesting low risk.

High reward entry right now. Uh, uh. I don't I mean you're gonna have to? Maybe I'll put it. that's what I'll do.

I'll screenshot this and put it in Locals for you. Everyone sign up for Locals Macross.locals.com it there's a free version and a premium version I think they're both worth it, but obviously I think that because it's mine. But here I'll upload a picture to locals. Uh, gold.

Basically I mean you could see the trend line. it's obvious if you're watching this. If you have the capability to figure out how to get onto the interwebs and find me, you have the capability to connect one low to the higher low and then connect it out. I'm looking at the daily chart.

find the low on November 3rd of 22 connected to the low of the uh early March 23 and you're gonna see we're bouncing off of that. Trenton Ryan Right now. Super interesting risk reward setup. Low risk because you could risk a couple points of the downside.

but then the reward is a cup and handle full out to like breaking above. So I mean you guys are all smart enough to do it. You you know what's up, you probably know more than I Do, um, spy? What we just saw was that kind of that fake out breakdown I was just talking about before, so this is kind of the telling level. It tried to get the vomit there.

I Mean look at even on the one minute, a larger bar, larger volume. try to get the vomit down quickly, bounce out of it. and now it's where it gets interesting. Uh, don't be the sucker who gets in on the first time.

So the way, uh, you could be buying on breakouts and you're buying a premium and the smart people are using you as exit liquidity. The exact same thing can be said to people who are betting it to the downside. Um, if you short on that breakdown, you're selling it at an abnormally low value and the people who are trying to get out are using you as exit liquidity. So be careful getting right in right when the breakout happens, right when the breakdown happens because there are obviously I mean we could show millions of examples of it of fake out breakdowns.

Fake out breakouts? Uh, generally having some patience will pay. Yes, there are sometimes that and it could be a catalyst-based event. There are some times that you somehow break out and it just doesn't even give you opportunity. It breaks out and it rips, it breaks down and it just capitulates.

But that's all right. You're not going to get every trade wait for the ones that are just like a view of a setup. A view of the setup. Speaking of the beauty of a setup once again has nothing to do with the market as I'm watching the Spy bounce right off of these key levels.

which is beyond frustrating. Dude, it's kind of funny with my internet lag right now. Um I try to bind this to a different phone and then this one is just straight up on the hotel. Wi-Fi Uh, it's just not loading for me like I think I get a minute bar every three minutes.

It just like loads them back in. so like I'm sitting here talking to you talking to you and then all of a sudden I see like a pop of price action like it all develops and then it just freezes and then I'm back at you. So I it's probably actually faster for me to just know the updates from you. How long is some patients? Uh Abby that's a phenomenal question.

I would and once again, everyone's going to view the markets differently. Everyone's going to kind of do their own things on the market and there's not one Golden Rule that everyone's following and it's perfect. We'll probably risk management, but um, this is just my opinion on it I Just want to clarify that I don't think it's really a time thing I think it's more of a price action thing I like to see something kind of get that fake out breakdown and then from there you start to see if it recovers and if it starts to recover and break out above a previous high of whatever time frame you're on. Okay, maybe it's actually that freak out, but if it is staying still below the previous high and then it starts to like kind of Bend back down.

Um, that's what I would be looking at. so once again, not really like time. I'm not like oh I'm gonna wait exactly five minutes. it's more of I'm watching The Price action watching it just to see how it all kind of goes from there.

Uh, but really good question. Uh, my thinkorswim is acting laggy currently. Uh, my whole system is acting laggy. So we're I feel your pain I feel your pain.

So we know that at market close today Market Open tomorrow, there is a statistically strong reasoning to go. In short: betting against the market. Um, I'm taking the trade because I'm already swinging it so there's multiple things converging for me that are telling me that even if today I mean obviously I want today to be bearish just because then I'd feel better about my positions. but even if today's like that's just my normal arm I guess Um, sorry about that.

My apologies I probably scared this shit out of me as much as it did you. Uh, sorry for that one. a little bit of a jump scare I'm sure you guys weren't anticipating that one today. Uh, why? why why can I not get my Internet working? Hang on a second.

I'm trying to get your comments up a little bit better for me over here. Uh, spectacle I Don't have spectacle on this computer. That's a nice Mac add-on for anyone who's looking for stuff. Uh, all right I have the rumble check going and then I think uh, what's your guessing Market with all economy reports next week for uh, good or bad for next week um I'm I would base it actually for me, more off seasonality than I would those? because we've all been in a position where we've predicted an earnings right as in a beat or a Miss we predicted Fomc meeting either going up or down maybe even predicted a surprise.

We've all been in these strange situations where we've predicted it right and then, yet the market still does the opposite thing. So for me, I'm not necessarily in the game of predicting inflation coming in hot or cold, or this earnings meeting or that one beating um I'd like to know that and I like to be aware of it I'd like to be paying attention to what's going on because maybe it makes just a bit more sense in your own mind. But really, what care what I care about is breakouts and breakdowns I care about price action I care about making new highs, making new lows, or even making a consolidation patterning a broadening pattern. um I found in my own trading history that sometimes I'm overly confident in my own bias and then I lit some really good trades go away and what? uh, like I guess to explain that more confident or like more specifically is I'm so confident in a position whether I'm being bullish or bearish that let's say I'm really bullish like for whatever reason, like I've done all this I don't know, research on seasonality, on the events, and going into something like dude, we are going to rip and then all of a sudden I make a bullish position whether I'm buying or on the Futures Market stock.

maybe I buy some calls something like that maybe I sell some book premium. whatever I put my money on the line because I'm so confident in this bias. And then all of a sudden the price action is making new lows, making new lows, making new lows while simultaneously uh, the highs are also getting lower and lower and lower. and then I just have this position that is obviously has bullish exposure.

but I'm just fighting the trend the entire time. so that I think sometimes like I don't know. We've talked about this every once in a while, especially if you've watched the show uh, quite a bit. You know that there's times that like I've kind of shared my thoughts of I almost wonder if it would be better to trade with no information at all besides the charts, just price action.

and I don't know. sometimes like there are advantages to being like in the know about what did this Fomc member just say, what did this company just do? Yeah I know that sometimes there are advantages. so I'm not going to sit here and be like yeah, no, it's perfect. But I think there is a lot of the time where because of external news and reading what people are saying on CNBC and Fox Business or writing on their blogs or seeing what's on Twitter seeing what's on Reddit I think it does kind of distort your own bias and then maybe it's right, but maybe it's wrong.

and then you're unwilling to admit that you have a loser because you're so dedicated to whatever your bias already is. So I don't know sometimes I think if I just had charts if I just had price action I wonder if I would actually be a better Trader but I don't know. it's gonna be tough. Tough to know, especially because part of my job in this stream is covering all the finance news.

So even though I have that thought I feel like I'm sometimes on the exact opposite end of taking in all the news. 24 7 all the time. Um okay I guess I'm asking if CPI comes in lower or higher than expected I know it's supposed to upside down world. Uh what do you want the market to do well? inherently inflation coming in lower if the CPI comes in lower than expected.

which right now the expectation is 4.9 and Coors 5.5 So CPI year over year is 4.9 core as when you take out food and energy is 5.5 and I don't know what Supercore is. uh I don't have that number Expectation: Super Core is without food, energy or shelter and that's a phenomena that I guess has become popular over this last cycle because people have been noticing how shelter has been really, really sticky in terms of inflation. But anyway, for normal CPI year over year we're looking at for no wait. that was last, that was the previous forecast or that was the previous hit.

I don't know what the for uh current. let me see if I can find it current CPI I know a couple websites current CPI forecast. Um, it came in at 4.9 last time. What does anyone know? What the expectation is? Whatever it is regardless of the number, because we're going to know it clearly as the time gets closer.

If it comes in higher, that means inflation's worse than expected. That's bad for the market because it's indicative of the FED being more aggressive. So if if inflation comes in above what's expected on Tuesday, then the chances of the Fed pausing drop, and the chances that I'm actually doing a 25 Bips rate hike increase. That's not good for the market.

We would see a bearish reaction. If inflation comes in lower than expected, that's a good sign. We would. It's a bullish sign.

I'm not going to say good or bad because I don't know your positions. That's a bullish sign because it would increase the chances of them pausing it. and it would actually probably increase the chances of them even pausing it in. July So now we have less of a focus.

Uh, a focus. less of a fucking hawkish, less of a hawkish Fed mindset. And then there it just increases the chances them going neutral. So um, coming in lower is bullish.

Coming in higher is bearish is basically the tldr of that. Ooh, the market got a nice pop off of those. Uh, the for whatever. Damn, we just couldn't.

I Mean we were talking about 426 I was talking about that fake out breakdown and look at it. It flushed to 425.82 which is essentially essentially the intraday uh, or the pre-market low. We were off by about seven cents and now we just popped enough that we went to a new intraday high above 427. This is just, uh, wild and now we might actually be having a fake outbreak out above that it pushes above the intraday.

High Gets all those people sucked in? Look at the Spy chart right now. You can really see it on the one minute chart. especially because we've only been trading for whatever 37 minutes if you look at it. I Mean in both directions we had established those establish highs.

It pushed above, it sucked people in and that's kind of I Don't know in my opinion. the sucker bet. wait to see if it actually is truly going to come back to that level or if it was just like, uh, like a sell stop run, a buy stop run and like obviously respectively to what side you're breaking out or breaking down. Um, but we're seeing it both ways.

both ways. Both ways. both ways, it's coffee looks amazing. Uh, did I need more of this? I need more of it I Am I Never play Slots And because I mean my background's in software engineering.

there's people like me with my skill set who ensure that if you play enough slots, you are a net loser. So, and they also have like, the worst odds. I Think it's a law that they have to have the odds on the machine I didn't look for it last night though. but and most people know this.

but in any casino like slots which are massively popular are horrible horrible horrible odds. so I just never play and I don't really get it and I don't know, there's just like a bunch of flashing lights and whatever it is it is. um but I was playing it last night and there was like some sort of bonus that was being built up to and it was like close. So the people I was with um they were all like hey well go for it and I spent a hundred dollars and it was really really close to um I guess like this Jack top just like whatever I don't even know what it's called for slots but like it builds up to certain jackpots and I ran the hundred dollars down I had like 10 left and finally dude, I'm gonna.

how do I turn this off? Check out the market because you've been trading in my back. Did I lose you guys? Uh, did I lose you? Yes, No, Maybe so. Yes No Maybe So and my back and my back and my back. He's back anyway.

so sloths have horrible odds I was spending a hundred dollars as I did I'm not spending more money than this on this stupid game and right at the end of it like whatever 10 20 to go it hits the jackpot goes up to 200. And then we realized it was like a series of jackpots and we were even closer to the bigger jackpot. And now he's like, well now I have 200 worth of ammo so mine as well, you know. And then I spent all 200 to try to hit the next jackpot and it didn't hit.

So yeah, that was awkward. So now I'm basically doubting that a hundred and um, on top of that I have no idea where this bruise came from. but I've had it for days now I think I did something stupid on the stair stepper. So for anyone who's maybe taking screenshots of this and sending it to TMZ and wondering like what's that of course is Wild Night out what happened? um I don't know what happened but it didn't happen in Vegas I brought this to Vegas with me.

Side note: especially for the people on Rumble right now I saw Steve will do it he was at the casino I was at last night and I was like hey Steve what's up dude like you're on Rumble I'm on Rumble We met each other at the NASDAQ hey like we both know Chris the CEO like we met each other we talked for an hour um because I saw him walk by I was like yo Steve and then he didn't do anything because I'm sure that happens to him a lot because he's like legitimately a like famous person I was like yo Steve and then he finally turned around and I was like Rumble right like we we met each other, we chatted and I I was less than a stranger to him. he had no clue in his mind who I was uh which I thought was actually pretty funny like he has like he looked at me I could have been the most random person in the entire world that you literally zero clue I was like dude we did a show together Steve like we we sat by each other at the NASDAQ like we met each other. we sat there, we chatted after and he that just kind of shows the orbit he operates in. he's just on another level.

like the amount of things he does, the amount of people he meets, it was nothing. it was nothing. uh security escort this man out I was his Steve security is very serious security I was a little worried about that when it became evident that he didn't know me like at all. uh I was like kind of worried because his security they're not men They're Not Mere Men they were men that Were Somehow crossbred with like legitimate bulls and then given even more growth hormone because they are the biggest dudes I've seen in my Planet like in my life like they're the biggest guys on the planet I was worried as I thought to myself afterwards I was like dude, if one of his security guards Hit Me Not only would I die but I feel just by like pure Force within the air I think anyone around me would have died um I don't really know.

we're gonna have to talk to scientists about that one, but his security is so massively large I I think they just eat people like me for their lunch like I think it's like their meal prep. They're like gotta get my protein in today. I think like I would be a normal meal for one of his security guards. Just a thought.

just a thought. just a thought. Um and now this is all Frozen again I don't know if I'm live. um I don't know if I'm live.

maybe I'm live. maybe I'm not. the Market's not loading I don't know where I I hope we're below 427. who knows.

maybe that should be. The goal in my life is just to train enough to maybe one day be security. get really Adept at fighting like put on 40 pounds of muscle, just take a as much steroids and growth hormone and I don't know whatever all the bodybuilders take. just take all that times ten just to see if I could ever be hired as a security guard instead of being big.

it would probably be better if I learned how to fight I assume it's more advantageous. Well, the most advantageous thing as a security guard is being big enough that no one fights with you anyway. I wonder that do you think most security guards end up sucking at fighting? and they literally just got hired because they're big and they're like, well, you're big enough that you'll stop the fight before it even starts because people will see how big you are I wonder if they're actually trained at fighting at all I would be screwed because I'm not gonna grow anymore. Uh, my doctor told me so I was like hey, I'm like 28 now like when am I ever gonna hit six feet and like, ah, that should have happened a decade ago buddy and I'm like uh, well, if you're saying buddy, that must mean that you're like pretty serious.

this sounds like it's not gonna happen Dude, what's this market doing? It just loaded it again I'm seeing 427 10. bounced off of support brutal and we're going. Yeah, it's definitely repping some strength right now and it says it's 7 15 which is weird because the market doesn't open till 9 30. But this is the issue with time zones and the Gregorian calendar as a whole.

We just need more consensus. I Really do think that the world should run on One calendar one time zone. it would make my life a lot easier I see some chat popping up every once in a while, but it's too small for me to read it and I'm just watching my money disappear. But it's all right.

I'll win it back on the slot machines, don't you guys worry? I Feel bad I Want to see if I can answer any of these questions? All right I Think this should work? Uh uh, you are live for me. we not below 426. unfortunately it seems like we are going the opposite way. but I'm I mean I'll update you on locals if I decide to do anything but I probably won't because I'm still feeling pretty good about the seasonality for tomorrow.

Um, but who knows. Maybe it's a crazy bullish day and then maybe we rip again tomorrow and I blow up my account. That's also a very fair fair possibility. We're running right up to Resistance 427.40 I Want to get this smack here.

What time is it I don't know how to do this. This says well. My chart says that it's 10 16, but my computer says that it's 7 16. So apparently they're not talking well to each other.

Apparently they're not talking well dude. and the hotkeys are completely different on my Mac versus my laptop or my PC Could this day get worse? All right. Where are your questions? Or questions? your questions? What? All right? Where are your questions? Whoa. That was me.

That was me. You should actually play craps. The only game on the floor you can play it with. 51 for a chance in your favor would be an interesting stream as well.

The issue with that is I have no clue on how to play craps. That would be the big issue there. I'm sure I could learn it like I don't think it's the most complicated game to learn. uh, but that would be.

uh, definitely a problem in the scenario is that I have absolutely zero knowledge, zero knowledge Matt throw 100 on black. Trust me. All right if I get back to the casino I Heard that there was actually a really cool hike. Was it like Red Rock Canyon or something like that? I Kind of want to go hike it, but it also looks like it's hot as balls in Vegas so maybe I would have to do that tomorrow morning instead.

maybe tomorrow morning. it is actually looking kind of nice out, which probably means that it's super hot. Honestly, can't be worse than the New York situation I missed. um I didn't leave because of that, but it kind of just went in my favor.

The fact that the weather there was horrible. it was a a dystopian future. It was like this orange fog. It was so so crazy to anyone who's in the Northeast because I know it's not just Manhattan I know it's like all over I know it's whatever anyone in the Northeast I I feel for you.

the color was the craziest part. It was just like kind of looked like What's that show Blade Runner or whatever I just had this like orange tint to it. kind of had like a a Mad Max coloring. It was absolutely Wild U.S Scientists have confirmed that El Nino has started.

Is that a good thing is El Nino Good first or bad for us. Make sure to get a day pass if you hide the red rocks. Oh I appreciate that. Okay, good to know I Didn't know if that needed to pass or not I appreciate you sharing.

Uh I appreciate you sharing. All right. Is this it is the market gonna finally come down? Now do we put him? Yes or no? I need either thumbs up or thumbs down. Is the market high in for the day? Is the market going higher from here? Are we going lower from here? Make sure your thumb is pointing in the direction of the market.

From this exact moment, the Spy is just above 427. Allegedly, depending on what my Wi-Fi is telling me. Um, from here is this the peak of the day and they're about to rug everyone? Or were you just going to keep ripping? Or are we just gonna keep ripping? Uh, it's normal climate change. Well I asked for either thumbs up or thumbs down and I don't think the New York thing has anything to do with climate.

I'm pretty sure it has to do with a giant fire that's in Canada. It kind of feels like Canada is attacking us. you know? Granted, it's a little Meek attack from Canada because most people in New York they're already like they can't tell the difference The Vape cloud is already that big so it's just like a different smelling Cloud instead of smelling like cotton candy, smells like a campfire like oh what's that new Vape brand brother and then they're like oh no, it's giant wildfires in Canada Um so that's throwing a little people like for some confusion but in terms of like the health of it or whatever the amount of vaping and cigarette smoking and marinara smoking that goes on in Manhattan No one gives a shit, No one cares at all. Oh fire happens every year in Canada Just rare for smoke to make it the way over the Northeast so low to the ground.

Is it some other I don't know climate phenomenon going on that is making that possible. Is that Why Is this the line for Tim Hortons below 427 Oh the Market's coming down? um Maybe Maybe Maybe you definitely need the cues back below 350. ideally below three. What is this recent low? Do nothing.

It's loans for me 349.21 So yeah, I would watch 350 and then watch 349 on the queues on the spy. uh, we're battling it out at 427. I very much want it below 426. um Netflix I would like for it to go up uh Nvidia It'd be cool if that thing just got wait.

is this: I Want to make sure I'm not giving free advertising to this coffee company that will be not that will not be disclosed. Let me just hide this so you guys don't know what coffee I'm drinking. This is not product placement, it's just the coffee that was near me. Uh, where are we at? Q's 350 349 Spy: 347 would love it below 346.

today's seasonality is pretty freaking neutral. Uh, nothing too special going on tomorrow. Seasonality: Monday seasonality favoring the Bears for sure. Was there another Market event for today I don't think so.

We got wholesale inventories at 10. which probably prompted the market to pop a little bit. Friday nothing scheduled Monday nothing scheduled today after the market closes. We get the earnings report and announcement from DocuSign tomorrow is Neo The seasonality from Friday to Monday is Bears today's neutral.

Uh, June As a whole, the first three quarters of it is just up, down, up, down. Um, but then the it's just like a teeter-totter back and forth and then the end of it is bearish into like just the end of June and then the end of tune until the end of July definitely favors the Bulls pretty much the entire month like the last final days of June and then pretty much all of July The Bulls dominate. They definitely definitely dominate what is going on in the market. right now.

it's still pushing. fuck fuck well. Remember how I used to have three green positions now I only have one so that's super uncool. but alas I feel like I still want to hold it through tomorrow just because of it? I'm hoping that the Spy gets smacked.

We've seen days where like whatever happens for the first half hour, 45 minutes hour and then it reverses for the remainder of the day. I Hope that happens. but man, this was a strong bounce in the Spy It was a definitely a pretty strong bounce on the Spy Come on, what are we doing spy 42740 What else do we have? Let me rip through just to give you thoughts. um Apple opened up strong, came down now bouncing Microsoft flat, strange, then pop now kind of giving it up Amazon is having a good day Amazon kind of just bottom left, top right type of action.

how's that t01 do in Hindenburg research up to 1.36 now how is Teo still like alive IEP Enterprise oh up to 26.50 getting as high as the high 27s today same as yesterday IEP making a bit of a recovery Target is that 131.50 I'm still waiting for that thing to break down to 125. how's Budweiser doing? Bud is at 54.90 um on The Daily kind of choppy now. nothing really going on there. Meta: I Had a bad day yesterday.

Meta got knocked yesterday, opened up on a gap down this morning. Got that upside? Gap bill So the intraday Traders at least me personally had already be done with Meta. but I wonder if there could be a recovery there? Like even more so Google fake out breakout of its consolidation and now already back to its consolidation oil sitting at 72 wall uh kre. They've had a good two-day push and now they're giving a little bit of their gains bag.

AI got hit yesterday C3 AI but now up slightly coin as in coinbase trading at 53.54 Please remember about the whole craziness right now with the SEC Oh that was a big announcement that we didn't talk about so it is now public information that back in 2019. Gary Ganzler, the current chairman of the SEC attempted to get an advisory position like you try to get a job at finance and the assumption is that Binance sold them to Kick rocks and they didn't want such a nerd working for him. Uh so now people are kind of looking at him I think what I saw on Twitter is like they're calling this is Revenge Arc of like you don't give me a job I ruin your whole company type of a deal which honestly I thought was a little funny. So interesting stuff there.

but yes, Binance producing information saying that cancer tried to get an advisory job with them in 2019 they said no and now we're just seeing I mean I'm no lawyer and I definitely don't speak legalese but that seems like it's uh, clear conflict of interest if you ask me. But yeah, that's definitely wild coming out yesterday. No I wish a gray you are amazing. You're amazing.

That's so nice does me? Kevin do a hotel live stream course I don't know I'll have to ask him uh, what else do we have Canadian Conspiracy I didn't know it was well reported CZ Called him a scanner and told him to get lost. What does that even mean? Um, scroll up and read my Super Chat Oh my apologies. Uh, do you want to comment on the seasonality chart I posted on locals this morning? Let me see if I can bring up the website I Would be happy to on the caveat that my pages load hey Matt what are your thoughts regarding June seasonal with respect to pre-election years June Market performance recent 21 years 22 to 23 and pre-election years 1950 to 2019. So if it's so this is saying for pre-lag what am I Looking at trading trading day? What am I looking at? So it looks like in aggregate June goes down from now until about mid-june But what you're showing is that if you take out if you only look at the the same time period in June and it happens also be a pre-election year, others at Bullish push instead.

So kind of a little bit of doing the opposite. uh, maybe could be true. Where is this from stock? Traders Almanac Almanac Trader percent change June Market The issue with that is pre-election years. If you're looking at 21 years worth of data and you're looking at pre-election years, isn't that at most five years? like that's a pretty small data set.

Um, I know when you're I mean it's obviously larger if you're looking at the 21 years in general. But if I'm looking at pre-election years, Oh wait, wait. and pre-election years 1950 to 2019. never mind.

recent 21 years of 2022. What the fuck, Where are they? This is the strangest chart. So I guess they're looking at a smaller time frame for June itself 20 2002 to 22. But then they also found information from 1950 to 2019.

That's weird to compared two different time frames like that. But anyway, apparently if it's a pre-election year, mid-june is a bit more bullish is my interpretation of this. I would have to dive into a bit more. Could very well be true.

Could very well be true One two, three, four five. So we're here at six. Interesting yeah. Matt I'll have to take a little bit of a deeper dive.

Just um, generally you wouldn't be comparing two things when those two things have two different time frames and one includes the other. but the other ones I Don't know, but that's a little strange. I'm not the biggest fan of the app like usually you want it to be a little bit more apples to apples uh but still could be interesting. The the major thing that I find interesting here is how the end of the month in both scenarios is bullish.

Um, the fact of even with things maybe in comparison being wonky, the fact that the final three, four, five trading days of the month in all of this is still pointing from bottom left to top right. That would actually make me even more confident at the end of June being bullish. And then also we know that July is crazy bullish. So um, that's actually what I find most interesting here.

but hey, if you want to know what we're talking about, it is on the Locos Community it's posted there by other man uh but Macross.locos.com so sign up if you want to see like the seasonality for June from almond Trader where is the market? Jesus we're still pushing. Holy shit yeah this isn't a good day to be me. Wow, that was absolutely painful. Well here's to hoping that things turn.

Um, all right. Well this wi-fi is so messed up and the battery situation is getting a little bit sus as well. Uh so folks, that's what I have for you tomorrow. I'm gonna see if I can improve the situation or if that's what.

I review for today I'm gonna see if I can improve the situation for tomorrow if I do anything with my positions I will post it on locals I'll definitely figure that out. but as of now as you guys know, I'm still holding a bearish position and really, it's all anticipation of the seasonality that I believe we'll be paying out. uh, tomorrow and the next day, but obviously time will tell. I appreciate you guys stopping by saying hi, putting it up with a little bit of a different thing here, but sometimes you gotta just play the cards at your deal.

Uh, I'll catch you later on. I'll do my best. Uh, there is still a video coming out in anticipation of this being a little bit wonky. I do have a pre-recorded video.

Uh, a recorded video. We're gonna get that uploaded so that's going to be coming up today, so make sure you have your notifications on for that and then we're going to do our best to see what we can do for tomorrow. but same thing. uh, we'll film it.

At a minimum, we'll have a film video that we're gonna upload just because it requires a little bit less of a strain on the upload system. when you are relative to live streaming. that's what I have for you for now. Um, I'll catch you later on today when I load that video up and then also I'll do my best to stream in the morning tomorrow, but obviously it's going to be a little bit Wi-Fi dependent.

but I appreciate all the Good Vibes thank you thank you thank you Um, whatever you do in the market, respect your risk, respect your reward. Stick to your training plan. I'll catch.