Foreign folks I Have a very, very special treat for all of you. Today we are going to be speaking with Mr Larry Williams If you've never heard of him before, he is literally a world champion Trader an author multiple times over and also a pretty accomplished philanthropist. So I'm excited for this conversation. and if I'm being honest with all of you, it's a little bit of a Starstruck moment for me and we're going to be getting into this a bit later.

but his book I found it in college and it's actually one of the things that led to my training career so this is a very, very special opportunity. Larry Mr Williams How are you doing today? I'm doing great thank you I'm hearing the beautiful Big Sky State of Montana Uh, enjoying. Hopefully spring is going to come, or maybe even summer. It's been a really tough winter this year.

yeah it has. and I mean we're looking at your backdrop right there Montana It seems. Absolutely beautiful. Home seems beautiful.

It's just something about being out there that that fresh air, the animals is just a different I guess speed of life and to me it's something that's a little bit more human almost if that makes sense. Well you know I grew up here and I think it's very helpful in that it's so big that your your vision of the world is unlimited. uh if you grow up in New York City It's something blocked to this block of that block and but here it's like you know I Drove took a drive the other day about 300 miles so you just see a friend of mine that's the neck closest town almost and it just looking at the beautiful country in the snow and thinking Indians used to live here and how did they get along and and they did and uh, it's it's just uh, it really opens up your mind I Think it allows you to be really creative Honestly I think that's a great transition. Do you think in a way that that almost helps with your trading to understand? like just the size and the importance? Because obviously every Trader knows whether you're new or just a storied career? One of the key things is to keep your emotional and your mental state under control.

So do you think that there's something in play there of just understanding like the size of where we are not only in the country, but just in in the time of everything to not get too philosophical, but is that something you actively think about? I I Think it depends on the person and how they grew up, what they grew up in their own environment I Think you always feel more comfortable in your environment. if you if I grew up in New York City or downtown Chicago that would probably feel more comfortable to me. So I I Find comfort in wide open spaces and being able to look out across the ocean when I get cloistered in the big cities I get a little antsy and you know I just there's too many things from my mind to process. so I like Simplicity hey I could definitely appreciate that.

so obviously you grew up in Montana How early on in life did you start trading? What was going on that you even got like the initial itch or the initial interest to become a Trader I'll never forget it 1962. John Kennedy rolled back steel prices and the stock market crashed. Oh yeah, and now now later I said well maybe it wasn't really what Kennedy did, it was cycles and it was the advanced Decline line and everything else. But there's a huge stock market crash and I asked a friend of mine well what a guy I didn't grow up with a family that ever on stocks I said what does that mean the market crashed he said well you can see that stock that stock was up one point today I said yeah he said well if you would have bought that yesterday and got out today, you would have made a hundred dollars.

I Got a hundred dollars in 1962 you could buy a car I did For a hundred dollars a hundred dollars was a huge amount of money I could this is for me I don't know what it is but uh I can guess if they go up or down and it looked like easy work and of course it's the hardest work I've ever had But that was what really attracted me to it when I got my mind focused on stocks, trying to figure out if I got to go up or down tomorrow. So like so many of us, just the concept of solving some sort of puzzle being on the right side of it and making money. So if that was somewhat of your humble beginnings like so many of us have, what then eventually took place that I was reading that you turned apparently ten thousand dollars in a trading competition to over 1.1 million and eleven thousand percent gain. So I mean obviously you had to learn many different tools whether it was psychological or technical analysis or fundamental breakdowns like how did you go from your start to such an extraordinary performance in a world trading Championship Well, it's a really long story I Want to get into all of it but like most everybody, initially I lost money trading.

Uh, and it was a real tough time. It's forced me to do research to try to get educated I read Joe Granville's book and I eventually became a friend of Joe's which is really a great thing in my life and to get to know him and and I I still didn't see in the book how I could make money I was just that that became the great problem in my life. um early on in my life excuse me I was told if you want to really have a happy life, fall in love with a great problem and the market was a great problem for me. Still is.

um I don't have all the answers to it but I just started working on a theory of how I can tell if these prices are going to go up or down and then I became, you know, somewhat successful at it. People knew about me and you know all that kind of stuff. But in 1987 we had the World Cup trading championship and um, but also the stock market crash and uh was I just decided I was going to try to win the championship that year I was a very short-term Trader then I'm not as much now and I was really foolish I used the wild form of money management basically spent almost everything on every trade and um, so if you're right, you make a lot of money. If you're wrong, you're gonna lose it all the actual ten thousand dollars.

A lot of people don't know. Matt ran up to a 2.1 million dollars. Oh and then it declined to 750 000 in the crash and I was actually we're pre-mechanical trading and I was in Kenya Africa on a safari and my good friend Ralph Vance was working for me at the time. uh was in charge of the trades and it was a mess and I came back from Kenya and we were at 750 000 and then traded that back to 1.1 million dollars.

I'm done. That's okay. Um, and uh, that was it. but it was I was hot.

Uh, you know I was totally focused. Probably wasn't a real nice person that year because I was just focused totally on the markets. Uh, and I used a very, very aggressive form of money management. so it wasn't just being a okay Trader it was largely using, um, a very wild form of money management.

They did it. It almost sounds a little bit to me right now I'm continually reading articles of how zero DT 0 DTE options are like exploding in popularity of just like huge risk parameters and people are just kind of going for it. It's more of like a lotto mindset and I'm not saying that's exactly what you did, but yeah, obviously risk Management's important now in that particular I guess jaunt of trading or maybe before or after. Is there a particular like on one side? a super successful individual winner? That like stands out in your mind and maybe maybe we could talk a little bit about like the other side of it.

Is there a particular loser that like still keeps you up at night today? Well, I don't remember any of the winners frankly. I do remember the one loser. So true, we were long. um uh, so we're short bonds and then they gapped up way up when the market bottom in 87 and we had to get all those bonds and that was a substantial loss.

I have no idea the winning trades but I certainly remember losing trade but they don't cause me not to sleep at night though. I mean it's it's a past you know I have a pass, but it doesn't have me. Uh, you have to move on to your next trade. If you can't do that, you're not a Trader man.

I Love that you have a pass, but it doesn't have you. I That's a great almost psychological tip in the world of trading of like I I Another one that's kind of like that is like you're as good as your last trade, but like you're always just trying to move on like that. That's all it is. It doesn't matter because this is such a forward-looking game and is that how you always were? or did it take time to almost develop that mindset when you were trading? I think I've always been that way I Just you know I Always figure that I'm going to get out of whatever situation I'm in and that that good will prevail.

So I don't really worry about the future. My father worried about everything and I think I learned from him not to worry and probably to to an extreme probably excessively. don't worry about things is probably times has been bad habit in my life. but in terms of trading oh yeah, I'll there's another trade out there.

I Know this though that people say the most important thing for Trader is money. but it isn't it's confidence. I've seen very wealthy people with a lot of money that trade and they've lost their confidence and they never come back. Ever.

And so it to me, you have to maintain some internal confidence. Where does that come from? Does it come from your success? Does it come from? You would come from whatever. But if you don't have that confidence in yourself, it's going to be really hard to be a Trader because you've got to pull a plug or pull the trigger. Either way and say I'm in.

I'm risking a lot of money here in this trade and that takes confidence to do that. Yeah, it definitely does. And obviously, whatever. Methodology, both psychological and mechanical in terms of the actual execution, but also the mindset.

whatever you're doing, it's not just going on in your world because if I was, my research is correct. Not only do you have some family members, but just students who also won various trading championships. So your methodology. it's clearly successful to a pretty high degree because people have taken it Maybe I would assume fit it to themselves of like whatever does work and doesn't work because we're not all the same.

But um, yeah, massive success for family members and students under you. So are they following you to the T or do they kind of learn from you in more of a general sense and then fit it to their own personalities? Well, that's the reason. Interesting point: I Think that actually is the most significant thing in my career is that I've been able to teach people what I do that? This is something that I can I can transfer from my mind to somebody else's mind And clearly the other Minds I've transferred it to are probably a lot smarter than me. so they'll see stuff in mind that I can't see because you know I think my indicators are like my kids.

they're the best on the Block but with an outside look, people can say yeah, Williams I see Williams got this and I can add this or delete this or whatever. so it's it's all. It's an organic product that's based on Larry Williams stuff. but clearly these people have have taken that and and made it work for themselves.

Uh, and I think that's why we've seen so many of these championships continue to be won almost every single year by uh people who I've had some contact with who've taken my classes. They've just been able to take it a Step Beyond me because I'm I'm blocked into my view and they're able to expand that man I Love that I would love to share a story with you because uh, I'm early on in my trading career and I have many, many things to learn, but it kind of somewhat got kick-started when I was in college I was kind of walking around the library as many college students do, just looking to waste time and I actually came across your book the long-term Secret Grits of Short-term Trading and I have to admit I didn't really know anything about trading I knew about stocks I definitely didn't know about Futures and I'm bringing that up for everyone in the arms because in the book it's Futures heavy in terms of your examples. But what I liked about it was to my understanding of trading. it was very much a warm buffet style of people.

would by any metric, find a company that they believe is good. they get into it and they hold it for a while and then in yearbook you were talking about just more of a mechanical system of hey, like it was, you were just breaking down the odds of it and me studying computer science and statistics I was like oh, you could trade this way and then I just uh errant Google search I looked at like Leverage rates of Futures and I was like oh, not only could you trade this way, you can make serious money this way and then of course I went completely degenerate with it and I started trading binary options and similar too. There was no risk control there. I was going all in all out and I ended up paying off a semester of college that way.

but it was wild. but it really got started. I was for me I was just like okay. if I can have rules XYZ to get in and then rules like one, two three, they get out I can test it.

it gave me something that I can know the odds of it and I started thinking of it a little bit more like poker than random chance or a long-term investment. and that was the mindset that I was like okay, like this is something I'm interested in and I've been kind of running with that ever since. But folks, if you haven't already, I believe you have over 10 books, but this is the one for me. the long-term Secrets the short-term trading that I found it randomly in college and I probably read it now once a year once every two years because there's little things that you pick up and I love this concept of trading when you can teach someone else and then exactly what you said.

They run with it in their own mindset and like I've had like kind of those aha conversations with other people's when I explain something and like, well, what about this this I'm like I've literally never thought of that before. What? Like it's just an exciting way and it feels like you're just solving this like massive massive puzzle and I don't know if that's how it is for you, but for me that's like what keeps me going because it's a giant puzzle to be solved and the people will solve it end up getting money like what an awesome prize at the end of the day I have a similar experience. One of the best things I've ever used in trading. uh was written in one of my books and somebody came up to me and said wow, that is really awesome I've made so much with what he said.

well that's singing you know? Chapter 32 page four I said really and I said I forgot about that So I went back and looked at it. It was very successful. Um, so there is stuff in books that's good. Of course you can't trust everything in books.

That's why you test and things change when I started trading. I was a big pork belly Trader we don't have pork bellies anymore but I applied we don't have Lumber you don't have our eggs, we don't have any more or potatoes so things change a little bit. but but what makes a good Speculator I mean speculate comes from the word specular. glasses.

to observe to speculate means to look unobserve and that's what I think you're doing. What I'm attempting to do is a observing a set of data in the marketplace and seeing. Well, usually when this happens, then that happens and maybe I can make some profit once. I have that knowledge.

So it's a lot of knowledge, but it's not a perfect business because there's so much random activity that I've been two or three news stories today Home Depot and didn't make any money. That was bad. somebody else made money. was a market of just so much Randomness in the market that there's no perfection in this business.

So if you're looking for Perfection you know this is not for you. but if you can handle the wildness of this, it might when I was a young Ace Writing rodeos I rode bareback and this kind of like writing bareback. You get in the gates and you get back on your horse and they open up this gate and you come flying out and he's trying to hold on for eight seconds. It's kind of like a whole lot of the S PS for eight seconds.

well actually for longer than that for me. but how can I hold on to this? You got a winning ride. How can I hold on to it? I Love that. I I Didn't know that in my research review that you were bare like did.

Do you have any crazy stories from that? I think that's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard from a Trader that like his like you were meant for trading, you remember you were gambling there with your own physical health. Like, of course you're gonna like enjoy somewhat of that risk-on gambling mindset of the markets if you're doing that literally with your physical health. Yeah, I mean I was I think A lot of the really good Traders I've known have a strong background in athletics or music. Interestingly enough, and the ones in athletics I Guess we were always exposing ourselves to risk and and college football.

Charlie De Francesco the largest Bond Trader in the history of the world was a really good football player. Uh, Colorado and and so you get used to pain I think and that I mean I got hurt in football obviously. Uh and uh. so you realize that uh, it's a it's a good background because you still have to come back and you got to be there for the next play.

Man, that very fair point. Uh, kind of going off that a little bit of. clearly there's a competitive and like somewhat of an obsession I Think A lot of the great traders that I've had the fortune and opportunity to speak with, they're truly obsessed with it day day in and day out. No one's forcing them to do it.

Something in their brain is wired that way where they just love it. So there is that psychology aspect to it. And let's also maybe call it a curiosity. Um, but is there something concrete that like when Traders come up to you like is there's things that you commonly find trade is doing wrong and you're just like hang on Like this might be an overarching backdrop of how you should view the markets.

Like is there common advice that you would give to a retail? Trader who? Maybe they're just getting started or maybe more so. maybe unfortunately they're losing and you're like hang on I Think this is maybe a good way. Um, the first couple steps to take to maybe improve things. Yeah, um what? I see most people doing wrong is uh, they'll show me their in the old days or charts or now the computers and they're like 20 indicators on there they'll have my percent are John Bollinger's percent B Socastix Macd they're all the same thing, but they're just redundant.

So I think people are are over indicated. uh I Think into each indicator in your chart should be for a specific purpose. One might be to show professional accumulation in the market, one to show over a bottle or sold one of the show season or Cycles or whatever. but each indicators for a specific purpose and people just read books and and toss all these indicators in the charts.

They have no idea that why the indicator is there and they read about it. but well, they're almost always redundant indicators. They're not, they're not the same. and I think you have to be very careful.

This is a really very addictive business. Uh, you mentioned how we get consumed with it and that's part of the addiction. Um, and it can be dangerous I've seen people lose Fortunes in this business I've seen people friends of mine who committed suicide because they're trading so people don't realize how incredibly, uh, difficult this can create and make one's life. So you have to really realize this is very dangerous and money management is critical.

Um, and you can start really small. You don't have to start big. You get paper trade for a long time. Uh, before you think you figure it out.

but usually the underlying cause of I think failure is people just want to trade. It's like oh, this is so much fun and it is until you don't have any money left. That's some very, very solid advice Going off of that note where you're basically saying understand what tools to use and to use them right? Like you don't need to bring four different hammers to the one job, you need your one hammer for the appropriate job before we get into the current state of the market. I Would like to talk about the current state of tools and right now I hear AI all the time A I A I A I Do think that's something that's going to end up really like.

Do you think it's a flash in the pan type of a situation? Do you see it? Maybe in the long term being around in the world of trading, especially through the lens of retailer. What are your knee-jerk reactions on AI and the integration with actively trading the markets. This ain't Ai's first rodeo. I I Finance A lot of artificial intelligence work 35 years ago.

something like that and we came up with and then we did Neural Networks I Put a lot of money into that with college professors I've written the books on neural networks, k-space student base, all thing right, lost money on all of it. Every trade we did, it didn't make money. and I think there's a real reason why that there's going to be some help from artificial intelligence obviously. but if not, the fantasy of be all, end All because all the mathematicians that I've worked with um recognize that math is perfect and they're trying to take their perfect business and make my imperfect World perfect And it isn't because of Randomness This is not a perfect world and they get frustrated because they can't make my business the market perfect.

So math is too rigid to be really, really effective I think on a short, very short-term based longer term base or whatever I don't think it's a I'm not afraid of of AI Um, one of the really incredible experiences in my life was I was primarily a systematic Trader and I was having dinner with my good friend Tom DeMark a radio talk show guy Glenn Beck and Steve Cohen at Steve's house and I started as an art major. That's my background as art I Don't have any background in economics or math or business and none of that was it and it wasn't very good at Art. So then I ended up with my degree in journalism I'll have to explain some books I wrote so I look on the wall next to where we're eating and I see whoa that van Gogh was in my art books Steve owned the van Gogh or whatever painting with this van Gogh for you I wish I go. He's not a systematic Creator I'm not either anymore.

No, no. I'm changing my whole heart because clearly here's a guy who's made billions of dollars trading without AI systematics. Whatever. I said, you know I think and if you actually look at the results of the commodity funds that are mechanical strategies, they make money, but the ones that are, uh, more personalized in the trading, they make more money.

So I think that skill. there is skill in this business and you can develop your skill. The art of uh, mechanical systems can make money, but to maximize it, you just become a good. Trader So would you classify your current style of trading as almost like a hybrid like you'll use systems to? Maybe I don't know, indicate if something's overbought, oversold, and then you'll almost use that as a backdrop on top of whatever your thesis of the current situation is.

Well, my strategies are really very simple. Uh first. I look I'm I'm not a technical Trader I'm what I call a conditional Trader I look for conditions that are usually at Market highs or lows. that could be the command Trade report Cycles Seasonals, professional accumulation a couple of indicators I developed.

It doesn't mean the Market's going to Rally now, but usually when these indicators are there, we're going to get a rally or the opposite of decline. That's a condition that sets up the market for a move that's not an original concept of mine. My mentor Bill Meehan taught me the basics of it way back in the 1970s. He said you gotta have conditions to cause markets to move and what I've what I believe so firmly is charts don't move the markets conditions move The markets and technicians think chart move the markets aren't you sure what the Market's done.

It shows the current emotions of the marketplace. So once the conditions are there, well we should rally. Let's say we're going to looking for bicycle then I want to be able to confirm that with maybe on balance volume or what are their technical tools you have and finally then we have Trend entries. So it goes.

Condition confirmation Trend entry. On top of that, you put money, management and exits and entries. And that's really the the general outline of of my theory of of trading. I Like it because it's essentially the Kiss methodology.

Like, keep it simple, stupid, you learn what you're specifically good at, you're trying to not over complicate it. and I feel like if anything, at least in my experience, the hardest part is just sticking to exactly what you told yourself you're going to stick to. With that in mind though, could you give the audience a little bit of an idea of like are you in this for a couple minutes, a couple days, a couple hours, a couple weeks, a couple months? like what's the duration because it sounds like throughout your career you try different time frames and what are you doing right now which I would assume is ideally lead the most successful time frame for you personally. Well, I think the time frame changed I'm 81 I'll be 81 in October I'm an old man I'm like I don't need another trade I've had I don't know millions and millions of Trades so I didn't even know the trade I want a really successful trade so my time frame is longer I The last they tried to add was because I was stopped out the same day I got in to a long-term position so my time frame is anywhere from 12 to days to maybe 30 40 50 days I've been in Sp position where I managed for a long time on the long side so partially depends on the market you're in and your belief of the market.

But my time frame is not short term and here's why: a short the basis of all profits is trend if you don't have Trend you're not going to make any money, then it could be real estate stocks. It doesn't matter what it is, so ask yourself what's the function of trend and the answer is time. The more time in a trade the more Trend you can get. So time is my friend.

it's my Ally and I try to use time so I can catch a larger Trend move I Love that I Think that's very very useful because I think right now for whatever reason. uh, there is an emphasis on like day trading super short term and to make money doing that, that means you have to play with some serious size. And also another thing that you were talking about it's almost and this is what I say a lot to the audience is the shorter your time frame the more Randomness involved. You could be right on a bullish thesis, but it's nothing for like a one day like pullback like that's nothing at all and then you might feel like your overall thesis is wrong.

so it feels like the shorter the time frame the more Randomness involved. Would you agree with that statement? Oh oh absolutely. Um, the a lot more Randomness on a very short term time frame and you can't catch any Trend move. You're out by the end of the day so you got three hours for a trend.

So the only way you can make a lot of money as a day trader is to have a big position. and if you have a big position, you're going to have big losses. So I would rather have a small position and catch a large Trend move. Um, the mathematics of that are really good whereas the day traders of math are just it's all backwards.

To make a lot of money, you have to have a big position and you're going to have big loss and you're probably going to let it run larger than you should because you're a day trader and you're emotional so it's look at the mass of it. it tells you what you should do. Now this mindset just because you have yourself spoken with many other very very successful Traders like even you were referring to Tom DeMark you were referring to Steve Cohen Do you think that what you were just describing is a commonly held belief? Um, the best answer to that is actual research. My son's a psychiatrist trained at Johns Hopkins and here prior to his work, everybody had done research on losing Traders and Jason interviewed just highly successful Traders traders that have made hundreds of millions of dollars or more and he found five things and the personality of those people.

He wrote about it in a book called the Mental Edge of Trading I think Dr Jason Williams Um, one was, they're all really good with detail. That's my weakness. My detail sucks I work on it, but it's not my basic food in nature for sure. Um, they all.

This is really, really interesting. They all had a relatively low self-image of themselves. uh, and on reflection I Know that's really significant because I've seen Traders especially in the old days of Chicago yelling Scream by Chicago New York I made 100 million here 15. they all blew up these really successful Traders are pretty low-key people.

They're not braggarts. They're not yelling and screaming and shouting. They're very quiet. Paul Theodore Jones Pretty quiet guy.

Um, I mean the atom or about things. But they're not braggadocio. They're pretty well self-contained and some of them, uh, I'll say, what do you think of the market? Well I I don't know what it's going to do and these guys are trading billions of dollars, right? So that was the relatively low self-image All the other thing is that their Emotions Don't fluctuate wildly. Um, some people is way too emotional to be doing this.

And these people, you know you could walk in and say you know you're ugly and whatever and they say, okay, uh, their Emotions Don't fluctuate wildly and so I think those are the traits that all Traders should try to attempt to improve their personality uh or or hone in closer to that if you possibly can. A lot of humility. Um, don't be too aggressive. Um, be really good with details and don't let your emotions get the best of you I Find that self-image one to be so interesting because whether it's books or shows or movies, the common stereotype of a Trader is like an abundance of confidence like this: Suave guy who walks in with his suit knows what to say.

overly aggressive, overly confident, and it sounds like the at least data behind it. It's almost as if the opposite someone who is, uh, very in the Forefront of their mind aware that it could seemingly blow up in their face in a second. Uh, I Like how that's almost a counter narrative. They're very, very interesting, and why that works is because then they don't bet big.

If you have a like I don't know what's gonna happen here, you're not, uh, an egotistical person. you want that big, but an egotistical person I'll show you and they'll bet everything on it, right? And that's how you get a lot of trouble in this business so that it's interesting when I I was in New York recently I was with a guy who's worth probably three, four billion dollars. Um, and we were talking about the markets and it's the same thing I said, what do you think of them? Well, it was kind of biblical here. You know, we had seven good years and seven bad years.

and I'm thinking about this like that's not what you'd expect from somebody like that to say um, years and years and years ago I Briefly roomed with Ray Dalio Bridgewater and really even back then was that way like he wasn't a bragios, a type of guy screaming and yelling and stuff the screamers and the yellers the the movie image of Traders and guys are sure to blow up. I I'm just almost like a little shocked to like. it feels like you're pulling back the Kern and being like hang on the way it's being depicted. It's very different than the people who are truly successful.

you did mention Paul Tudor Jones And recently he's been kind of doing a media tour talking about his opinions and he's been talking about the Fed and the market. and he's actually been pretty bullish. So just to I guess, talk about things going on right now. What are you looking at in the market? What are they? Are you bullish? Are you bearish? Are you more of a we're kind of teetering a little this way.

a little bit that way. Would love to get your thoughts on insights. I'm outlandishly bullish and I have been since last year. Bullish Right after? Oh, absolutely.

We're in a bull market and you want to in a bull market the strategies to buy the brakes and sell the big rallies. So if we have a big rally here, uh, I would sell some of my position and look to be a buyer on the next break. but the Cassandra is a purveyors of pessimism. Have been wrong since last October and they're going to continue being wrong.

I Think that we're probably going to have some weakness into June but from June on of and we're in a bull market and you just have to keep telling yourself that there's there's no reason to be bearish if you look at one of the charts right now and bring up a look at the inflation chart. Inflation's been the fear of the marketplace, but there's a lot of inflation indicators. The one that we're showing is some New York threat and this is a little different than the uh typical CPI index and this has been coming down for some time including see, it's topped. Inflation is behind us.

So that means as I understand the world, we'll see a lessening of interest rates either very smaller reductions or no increases in rates. and I think that's going to be one of the bullish increments simply because, um, it the big Bugaboo of the market. Inflation is pretty much behind us the cycle of inflation. About a six year cycle and it topped out about a year ago and we'll continue to see a Lessing of inflation on into the next year and a half two years.

So that's one thing that I think is really bullish. Another one is did people have money to buy stuff? So if we look at the next chart a personal uh, consumption we see that people do have money. Uh, and that's in an upline. and if when we're seeing that type of an uptrend look, when we've seen recessions, we haven't seen recessions with this combination.

So I think there's a lot of reason to be bullish here. and then on top of that I Really believe in cycles and the most dominant Cycles right now I can't find a bearish one? No, so short-term ones, but anything at long term. No, they're all really bullish here. So I I've been bullish since last October the week of the load actually it was day below come to Mark and Peter light is when I had dinner in Phoenix and after dinner we all said okay which way I said up Peter said down Tom was kind of mixed mixed the bullish and if you look back from that point forward, we've been in a bull market so you know as the trend been up yeah you're gonna argue with the trend I'm not.

I Love your contrarian viewpoints here because if you turn on media and this might have just to do with the fact that it's media and they know obviously clickbait like they they want doomsday. they want the negative sentiment for you to like really click on the article. but all all we hear is negativity right now and it is various tail risks whether it's inflation and the FED whether it's the debt limit, what's going on there or even the regional banking sector and does that stuff come into your mind or are you saying yeah like I get it and you're more in the second half of the Year looking to I guess get into quality stocks that apparently or even just the overall Market that you're a fan of because it sounds like you're more of very regimented mathematically of like this is the cycle I'm looking for the cycle to bottom out and then you're looking to As you said re-enter on the breakouts is do you not really care about the debt limit inflation and I guess Regional banking I mean this that limit thing is such a speculative argument. Come on you think we're really going to go and not honor our debt in America How many times has this been in front of Congress and presence before? Lots of time did it always get resolved? Yes every single time it will get resolved this time this is like a stupid argument.

This is a scapegoat argument now. I said this isn't gonna it's not an issue but you're right. I mean as I said I have my degree in journalism and what I learned is if it bleeds it leads. They never wrote articles about how many houses didn't burn down today, but if one house out of a million burned down oh fire fire fire.

If you want to get on NBC television or CBS or whatever all you have to do is say it's a disaster, the world's going to end tomorrow. The markets are crash. Four thousand points. Come on, come on.

we want you on. If you're bullish, they're gonna ask. That's not very interesting to say. Yeah, America's great and we're gonna.

We're gonna do well here. Um, it's just not. It's not what the media likes and the media people. If you really watch these Talking Heads on media Bear responsive to what happens Today is what they're predicting for tomorrow.

If the Market's down today, their bearish. If a mark is up tomorrow, they're bullish. They're very short-term time frame, so as a longer term investor, you need to have some time frame. Clearly one of the lessons I learned from Vic Neederhoffer An incredibly invaluable lesson is almost always the stocks are in an uptrend.

There's a time to be bearish, but damn few you had 62, 66, 70 Uh, the 87 for what a month? Uh, 2002, 2008. Um, the Covid which is over in another month. two months. Uh, what we went through last year.

We're down for a while, but we're back on the middle range. These Bear markers don't last very long and you better be really careful. I've seen so many people have been buried forever because it's well. Another thing for my son's research is that people have a cognitive bearish bias.

They like to be negative. They love to hear somebody else is doing worse than them because it makes you feel good. so we like bad news. We get sucked into bad news instead of saying well, wait, there's some really good things going on in the economy right now.

The Federal Reserve has several uh, inflation, a recession prediction indicators. They're really good. They're really bullish. They're not saying we're gonna have a recession, so all the yummy, yummy purveyors of pessimism is that like a broken clock? you're gonna be right.

You know every now and then, but right now as I see it now. Maybe I'm the guy who doesn't understand the world is that's why I Can't bet everything on my view, right? But I'm bullish. Absolutely fascinating conversation for everyone listening right now. I'll put Mr Williams's website in the description of the video and also links to the books we discussed and all the indicators that he's made over the past couple decades of his training career.

and obviously it's led to massive successes for him. I Am so excited to see how this plays out in the future. Would love to bring you back on at the end of the year to see if we get these predictions right here. but truly, for me and from the audience, we absolutely appreciate your time.

It's a rarity to get these types of insights, so once again, just thank you for your time. I'm sure everyone learned quite a bit I hope so. It's always a joy to share what little knowledge I have and experience. so let's help with anybody then it just makes me happy guy.

Glad to do it! Thanks very much for having me.