Oh brother oh brother brother oh brother Good morning, good morning, good morning and welcome to Tesla SL Netflix Earning Day to all of you who celebrate Hey I Hope you're having a good one I Hope you are crushing it it is. Wednesday It is hump day I Hope you're having a good one Happy October 18th I Hope you guys all got up this morning and ran 4 and 1 half miles borderline crying the exact same way I did just to really get going on the day you know I Hope everyone's ready to go RI into rare raring to rip whatever you want to call it I Hope you are having a good one. So we have a lot to get into. Big updates of what's going on in the Middle East Biden there.

And the fun thing about that is he's talking and the fun thing about that he's talking is that he's being recorded. And the fun thing about him being recorded while he talks is he always says amazing things that are going to just make us all left. So we're going to get into that. Obviously, we're going to talk about earnings.

We're in the middle of earning season some big earnings reports this morning and we also have some big ones coming after the market closes today. then from there just updates of what's going on in. China What's going on In the world of seasonality? what's going on In the world of options, we have a lot to talk about I Hope you're having a good one I Hope you're ready for it I hope your week thus far has been very agen, very profitable, very fun, and I hope you were gearing gearing up for the remainder of your week to be hopefully rip roaringly Green in your P&l Um, the market itself is at a very import important inflection point so we're going to decide if it's going to rip to the upside and the Bulls are in control or is it going to get decimated and the bears are in control? Only time will tell, but hopefully we are on the right side of the trade now before we get into all that. before we get into the official Matt Cor show where I'm Matt your Kors and together we are the show I do need your help.

Um, so before we talk about Ston Market stuff I would love to talk about some degenerate sports stuff and I'm not the most sporty guy myself, but I do like gambling and I do like numbers and I do like stats. So because of that I am in a Pickham NFL league. So I need you guys to tell me who's going to win the football game we're not talking about covering, we're not talking about any of that I just need you to tell me who you think is going to win the football game for this upcoming week. So let's get into all the good sports stuff before we go into the more serious economic political that stuff.

So game number one: Jags versus the Saints Jags versus the Saints. The Saints are favored by one point and it is at the Saints uh that one's actually going to be a close one. Well, the Jags are like the worst team ever. right? right? So who are we Jags versus the Saints Jags Jags The first two I saw were the Saints Saints.

Well, no, the first two were Jags. Wait, you guys are kind of split on this one. All right. I'm going with the Saints.

Next one is the Falcons and the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are favored by 2.5 Falcons versus the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are favored by 2.5 Uh, not the worst team ever. I Thought like in the league buck buck Falcons Uhoh, you guys are kind of split on this one.

All right. I'm seeing a couple more bucks coming in. Next one is the bills and the Pats I'm going with the bills. Next one is the Browns and the Colts.

The Browns are favored by two points, but it's in Indianapolis. So Browns versus Colts Who do you have Browns versus Colts Who do you have Browns versus Colts Browns versus Colts Browns vers Colts First one I see is the Colts three Browns coming in Colts Oh wait, you guys are actually really split on this one. Uh man, wait, you guys are really really sprit. Browns Indie QB is hurt.

Oh okay, we'll go with the Browns them. Uh. Next one. is the liens and the Ravens I.

Kind of want to go with the Lions. Who do you guys have the Lions versus the Ravens Who do you have Lions versus Ravens in Baltimore Lions versus Ravens in Baltimore Lions Ravens Lions Ravens Man, you guys are 50/50 lions lions. Okay, couple more Lions coming in. Uh Raiders versus the Bears I I Feel like that one's obviously the Raiders uh commanders versus the Giants Oo both teams not the best.

Uh, the commanders have a better record though. commanders versus the Giants commanders versus versus the Giants commanders versus the Giants Who do you have Giants Interesting commanders Washington Commanders commanders. Uh I think more votes are coming in for the commanders Washington Okay, cool, we'll go with that. Uh, the next one's easy.

It's Cardinals versus Seahawks. Obviously, the Seahawks Steelers versus the Rams Steelers versus the Rams Steelers versus the Rams in La Steelers versus the Rams in La. Who do you have? Pittsburgh is the first one I'm seeing Rams Rams Rams Steelers Rams La Oh, you guys are you guys are kind of close on this one. I Think there's a couple more Rams coming in.

So I'm going to say that Green Bay versus the Broncos. That's all was supposed to be close. The Uh Green Bay is favored by a point, but it's in Denver Green Bay Packers versus the Denver Broncos Green Bay Green Bay two. The first two I'm seing are Green Bay.

The first three I'm seeing are Green Bay Green Bay Okay, we're going with Green Bay Chargers versus the Chiefs that's obvious Chiefs Miami versus the Eagles. That's going to be a close game. They're both both 5- one. Both are crushing it right now.

I think I have to go with the birds just cuz I'm an eagle but that one's going to be that's going to be the best game to watch actually of the whole week the Dolphins versus the Eagles I'm going to pick the Eagles but I just want to know where you guys are at. it's going to be a close one. Um Eagles Better defense Jaylen Herz Eagles fish we are the chat of Last Resort Crap Face what are you talking about I'm literally reading out who you guys are picking fine up Dolphins Myami Uh. Philly going down.

Don't you say that? All right? I'm going with the Eagles and then the last one is the 49ers. Vikings I Think it's pretty safe to say the 49ers? All right. Cool. That's done.

I Appreciate it. Do you guys want to know how you did last week? How did you do last week? Uh, how do I do this? Uh. currently in third place with 56 correct picks over the first I guess six weeks last week. second best.

Went nine nine games. Uh, the best in the league was 11 the week before that. 10 The week before that nine the week before that 10 and week one when I didn't ask you guys eight. So I've gone 8, 10, 9, 10, 9, 10.

So you guys are pretty much always good for 9 to 10 good picks. Um I appreciate that Currently third in the league um, four behind four behind first place. So I need you guys to pull out some impressive, impressive picks in the coming weeks here just so I can regain that four-point deficit. But that's where we're at.

That's where we at. That's where we're at. That's where we're at. And I suppose it is time to talk about the show sock.

Futures fall today Wednesday October 18th as earning season picks up steam before we get into that I Want you to know in terms of major political Global turmoil the US President Joe Biden has arrived in Israel That was about 4 a.m. this morning and right away he gave us this hot Gem of a speech speaking Point within his speech you know? uh, years ago I asked the Secretary of State when he and I are working Senate to write something for man. He said uh, he wrote a line that uh I think is appropriate. He said uh, it's not, we lead, uh, not just uh.

well I won't go into it I'll wait later taking too much time, you know. Uh, but uh, well. he said, it's not we lead, it's just well. I won't go into it.

now. uh I won't I won't go into it now um I don't know. Some times I feel like they time his medication appropriately and he seems like on the ball on fire paying attention and then other times what like I I they just need to figure out the perfect scheduling for his medicine. Israel Uh Hamas War live Update: Spiden suggests Israel not responsible for Gaza Hospital blast during BB meeting in Tel Aviv So right in Israel um just other international news China strong GDP Report shows housing remains big problem so uh, this internationally.

Obviously everyone's paying attention to what's going on in the Middle East but China coming out with some numbers and actually the Euro Zone their CPI came out at like 4:00 or5 this morning and it came out as expected so it wasn't hot, wasn't cold uh but came out as expected in the Euro Zone All right Biden sees other team and not Israel behind Hospital Blast in kind of a spicy I guess a spicy piece of commentary. So I wanted to be here today. uh for a simple reason I wanted the people of Israel the people of the world to know where the United States stands I've had my great Secretary of State here. He's been here for a lot Secretary make that clear.

Terrorist group of Moss has slaughtered has been pointed out over 1,300 people and is not hyperbole. She just slaughtered slaughtered. This is from a couple hours ago including 31 Americans and uh, they've taken scores of people hostage including children. You said imagine what those children hiding from Hamas for thinking it's beyond my comprehension to be a imagine what they're thinking beyond my comprehension.

they're committed evils that atrocities that U make Isis look somewhat more rational. You know um Americans are greeing with you. They really are and Americans are worried Americans are worried because you know there's a this is not an easy field to navigate what you have to do. but uh, the fact is that Israel as they respond to these attacks seems to me that they have to continue to ensure that you have what you need to defend yourselves and we're going to make sure that occurs as you know.

And we have to also bear in mind that AAS does not represent all the Palestinian people and Uh has brought them only suffering. You know? Uh, years ago I asked the Secretary of State when he and I working the Senate to write something for man said wrot a line that Jason how dumb are you Obviously you're going to get kicked dumb ass. It's not, We need, not just way later. that was it.

Oh, we'll get you later that um I'm deeply sad and outrage by the Uh explosion at the hospital in Caza yesterday and based is but there's a lot of people out there. not sure Jeson is not a lot of things and also means encouraging life saving uh capacity to help the Palestinians who are innocent caught in the middle of this and uh, well anyway, that's getting angry saying that any of the Palestinians are in innocent like how how could you and uh um, it's just not the example. Our power is the power. Our example.

It's almost as important. You think they could have come up with a better mic system. You know a value set like the United States does WTF is he talking about? Great question. Can I translate it? Minister I'm very happy to be back in with you.

Thank you for having me and they didn't give them his adrenaline. Thorough discussion about where everybody goes from here, but thank you and uh I Want to say to the people of Israel their courage, their commitment, their bravery is uh, is stunning. It's really stunning. I'm proud to be here.

Uh, proud to be there. Obviously, the decision to go there and really make a public display of the support for Israel in teach obviously increasing Global tensions. Um, we're going to come back to that. There's obviously going to be updates throughout the day, but obviously we're here to talk about the economy and the stock market.

So I do want to remind you that we are in the middle of earning season. A Lot to talk about. So early early this morning we heard from various names such as Morgan Stanley Proctor and Gamble I Think the exciting ones of this particular week come after the market closes today Tesla and Netflix very much paying attention to those Netflix and Tesla reporting right after the Bell goes dingy ding ding ding. so be prepared for that.

Don't be surprised if there's a lot of volatility today and tomorrow in these names. And also don't forget that before the Market opens tomorrow. AT&T American Airlines Tsmc uh Nokia the Blackstone Group So some important ones, we got some oil plays and then this will be continuing for the next 3 weeks after this one. But let's review how some of them went this morning: Morgan Stanley tops profit estimates of better than expected trading results EPS was A138 versus A128 and the revenue was 1327 billion when the expectation was 13.23 billion.

So Morgan Stanley going the way of many other financial institutions in this most recent quarter beating. so some positive stuff there Proctor and Gamble tops earnings Revenue estimates even as higher prices Drive Some consumers away. uh, a little bit of some inflationary undertones talking about the product and selling it all that good shrinkflation stuff. EPS A183 versus A172.

expected and the revenue was 2.87 billion when the expectation was 21.58 billion. So still, even with that going the way of beating that, not every company has beat, but the general tune that the earning season is currently humming is one of bullish beats. Uh, this isn't really with earnings, but I Just thought it was important because we have been talking about Nvidia Don't forget Nvidia yesterday here. I'll show you the chart really quickly.

took a little bit more of a sizable hit. It did not hold this trend. Line broke down: Fake Out Breakout Try to recover fake out. Uh, excuse me, fake out breakdown leading to a fake out breakout.

Uh Nvidia In terms of the tech sector, that was the worst performing one yesterday and it had to do with the closing of loopholes in the current regulations being set by the US government selling semiconductors these Gpus to China So Nvidia went out of its way to create less powerful chips that it could sell to China And this all happened because of October of last year. they said hey, we're not going to allow companies to sell to China anymore. too important in the world of AI data centers all that good jazz and so Nvidia went out of its way to create a chip that was less powerful that it thought would be accepted. And just recently this October the administration said, nope, you're not allowed to sell it and on top of it, Uh, on top of those loopholes being closed, they also closed various loopholes that was inherently allowing these companies to sell to a different country and then that country country would end up selling to China.

So they closed those loopholes as well. Uh, so because of that, not only are we seeing the downward price action in Nvidia but now city cuts Nvidia Price Target on Us chip export restrictions to China The AI Boom's favorite play comes with greater risks now. City Maintained its buy rating on Nvidia but lowered its price Target to 575 from 630. so still way above.

So even though it's not as bullish, it's still a very very very bullish call out. This still implies a 31% upside from the stocks. Uh, since Tuesday's close, so it's bullish. just not as bullish as they were before because this is clearly just hit a hit to its bottom line Revenue like I don't think that's that big of a a jump.

So obviously earning season things to pay attention to. There other things you should be paying attention to are the Fomc members. So today at noon o'clock we're going to be hearing from Waller and then also at 3:15 with 45 minutes to go until the market closes again. we will be hearing from Harker The every single day this week there are Fed members talking.

But the big day is tomorrow when the chairman of the FED pal will be speaking fed Chare Pal speaking at noon o'clock Tomorrow Yes, I will be streaming it. So I Just want that everyone's paying attention to this. This everyone paying attention to the market to the economy is trying to listen to know is he going to still be very hawkish? Is he going to be more hawkish? Is he going to be more doish? This is going to be setting the tune. especially when you put this in the middle of Opex week options expiration.

Um, there's a lot of money. Changing Hands This week, lot of volatility. This is definitely going to be adding to it. So once again, Chairman Pal speaking tomorrow noon o'clock I will be streaming it and then also there's obviously three other members speaking tomorrow and then on.

Friday We also have more Fed members. On top of all of that, we still have all these major macroeconomic events. So early this morning, the CPI report the inflation report for for the Euro Zone came out at 5:00 a.m. ET the expectation was 4.3% It came out at 4.3% so not not hot, not cold.

But the numbers coming out of China were once again week, then uh, obviously. Thursday normal stuff, initial jobless claims Philadelphia Fed manufacturing and then on top of that, please don't forget about Fed Chel. If you're thinking that the lunch hour is going to be a boring one most of the time, that's how it does go. But this lunch hour I think is going to be a bit more volatile than most people are expecting.

Speaking of: China China's growth beats forecast as consumer spending improves. GDP expands 4.9% year-over year in Q3 I Don't believe it I Don't believe it for a second. I Think these numbers are absolute BS When we look at what's going on with real estate, once again, there's like effectively more Bank runs uh I I Just don't see it. Retail sales jump 5.5% in September the highest since May things may be improving a slight amount because the government is starting to show signals.

Once again, the Chinese government is starting to show signals that maybe they'll step in opposed to just like letting things run. Haywire But I I'm just not buying it. I I very much think China's economies on tilt. My own opinion you might be of a different opinion.

but when I see a lot of these mainstream media guys in the world of Finance telling us invest in China invest in China uh it it. It raises a couple eyebrows, at least in my opinion because the underlying thing of what we're seeing over there looks like it's on tilt. We know the unemployment's bad, We know the shadow banking bad, We know the the population issues are bad. They just have a lot of serious issues.

So I I don't And then right now with the US choosing to implement additional restrictions when they need the technology that we're producing and the government is saying no, we're not going to give it to you I just I just don't see it I don't see it. But anyway, here's what Bloomberg has say we talking about a 4.9% print for growth for the third quarter that is better than expected although it is slowing from the previous quarter mind you. But then again, we are actually seeing seasonally adjusted quarter on shorter. Uh, that is 1.3% Uh, you take a look at the rest of the under the hood, it is looking okay.

In fact, it's better than expected for the most part. Absolutely looking. IP Production: 4 half% That's against 4 4.4% Big small beat There retail sale small beat as well. 4.9% of the expectation getting.

Actually, that's a big beat. That's 5 and a half% actually. we got there. so certainly I'm going to correct myself.

uh, just looking at just one data point which missed fix investment 3.1% there. So yeah, these are bits and Bobs which you have to make a really calculated aggregation of them all. and I guess it's the obvious sort of culprits like property investment sales. Um, property investment I should say 9.1% contraction here.

that is worse than expect and I believe. Uh, this has been weakening for six seven months now. straight. Uh, the survey jobless rate also looking better 5% when it comes to unemployment in China Of course they haven't published the youth unemployment so we don't know, but that is still better than expected.

Print here sounds like Nigela Thornberry that's funny. Oh question for you: why is it racist for me to do an Asian accent but not racist to do many other accents like if I do a British accent a Russian accent? Um, an Australian accent a Polish accent? Any of those? Why? Why is that allowed? But then like certain accents are like I don't understand how like certain accents are acceptable, but then other accents aren't It's not. It's not. Well, you guys are speaking about it logically.

I Guess I'm more interested in the conversation with a person who, uh, gay accent I Guess technically that one wouldn't be racist. that's just more of a vocal fry. Society's full of crap. Hey, just a question.

Just a question. You know you. You guys know me. Always always interest interested in the hard-hitting questions.

That's what you guys come to me for. Uh, that's what you guys always come to me for storming the gates. This is a free newsletter I Give out every single week M. Locals.com I give a breakdown of what happened the last week.

What? I'm looking to the upcoming week. All the major macroeconomic events, all the major earnings I Think you're going to care about and this is what I want to talk about here: Seasonality Over the past 25 years, this day has favored the Bulls just below 58% of the time. but when you consider the size of the wins and the size of the losses, it's actually favored the Bears. So I don't know with when the accuracy favors one, but the profit Factor favors the other.

And when I see an equity curve that's this choppy for today specifically makes me feel like today is just a bit neutral from a seasonality perspective. Doesn't make me really feel bullish, doesn't really make me feel bearish for the remainder of the week. I Would argue that Thursday is leaning bullish and then Friday itself actually is bullish and these are the option the zero DT option strategy from last week. So I want to give you an update on how it went yesterday.

October 17th I Posted this yesterday. it was a put credit spread I just needed the Spy to be above 432 by the time the market closed and it was so that hit, um, obviously a decent acceptable return and then a similar situation with the Q's uh, another put credit spread needed it above 363 Once again, this was posted yesterday. Nice return there as well. Um, just slowly but surely stacking it up.

If the signal fires again today. I will be posting it here just so everyone knows. but thus far on the week, four for four. so I don't know one of these weeks, I'm bound to bet uh, a th000 so we'll see how it goes.

Five things to know before that stock market belt goes dingy. Ding ding ding today. Wednesday October 18th Feeling flat. That makes sense because the market is essentially range bound is essentially flat.

This is how the spy's been going and ever since. Tuesday October 10th. We've done a great job at going absolutely nowhere. sideways, sideways, sideways.

looks like it was going to break out yesterday. got smacked before that on Friday It looked like it was going to break down but bounc. so just we have to wait. We have to wait for the breakout and close above 438.

or we have to wait for the breakdown and close below I Don't know 430 431 we're range M patience is key. High stakes trip Yes Biden is meeting BB in Israel to hopefully calm down tensions. but thus far it it seems like his efforts are doing nothing but increasing tensions. War Impact.

Uh, talking about what's going on with I mean oil. Obviously, the airline industry is going to be very, very dependent on the cost of jet fuel, which is going to be a byproduct from crude oil. so something to pay attention to. But I do want to remind you that even though that's like what's happening now, remember, we're about to get it earnings.

So with Delta United all that stuff Americans coming out Southwest is coming out. Thus far they've been beating. Will that continue? I Would bet so. but this is also a look at the most recent quarter.

not necessarily what's going on right now. So pay attention to crude oil. Crude oil sitting at 87 kind of range bound. Um, it was ripping for a bit there then had a pretty big hit and ever since then once again just sideways waiting for some sort of trend.

Housing real estate is scary. These days, home builder sentiment fell to its lowest point in 10 months. Mortgages are ripping and part of the reason why mortgages are ripping. or because yields I mean look at the 10year yield is now almost at 4.9% I've been calling this out for a couple weeks now I Very much think that yields the 10-year yield is going over 5% Um, O2 y the 2-year yield is already at 5.25% and then the US 30-year yield is currently at 4.98 It's almost at 5% As yields are getting pushed up, bonds are going to go down.

Obviously, they have an inverse correlation: yields up bonds down, bonds up, yields down. As yields are going up and bonds are going down, there's a very good chance that we're going to see the dollar going up. The dollar has been going up. So as yields are going up, and as dollar is going up, that's going to put a lot of downward pressure on the market.

So if you're looking at something such as the Spy better chance than not that if the market were to pop, you're going to see volatility going down, the dollar going down, and yields going down. Also, if you see the market start to drop, better chance than not, you're going to see volatility going up, yields going up, and the dollar going up. These aren't perfect correlations. It's not like if one goes up, the other, one goes down perfectly by that exact amount.

But these are the related trends that I would argue are very worthwhile to pay attention to the fact that these yields are so high and they're not showing any signs of stopping right now. That is definitely concerning to me in the medium term. Still no speaker. so we're in a weird situation where Jim Jordan is at this point kind of running un imposed.

but he also doesn't have enough votes so we're still without an elected Speaker of the House which is confusing for various various reasons, but something to pay attention to. They're basically trying to get enough votes. which basically means they're trying to get enough I Don't know agreements and concessions from other people that hey, that's how I guess politics goes, but that's just another thing to add into the little volatility pie that we are currently baking up in the kitchen. And on that particular note, Ding ding ding ding.

the casino is open. Best of luck. All play responsibly if not have buttloads of fun. The Market: The Spy opening up at 434 Once again midrange.

look for the breakdown of 433 or look for the breakout of 43650 to maybe get something going, but right now, range bound just going sideways. In terms of the Q's The Q's were behaving a bit stronger, but look at how they're now pushing on. The downside. the bottom side of this: EMA Cloud So if ends up snapping 365 I would then be watching 363 and some change with my major watch being on Nvidia because Nvidia Getting hit with a slew of negative bearish news recently.

not really because of its own doing, but because of just like the political tensions of the world and basically the Biden Administration not wanting to sell um, not wanting the company to be selling its high-end processing chips to China clearly a hit on its Revenue Now we're going to wait for the market to open As always, we're going to wait those first 10 20 30 minutes just to see how things are settling to watch what's going on in the options. Market Basically to see where big money is positioning itself for the day. Please do not forget after the market closes today, we are hearing from both Netflix and Tesla I'll be going over that in more detail in a second, but after the market closes today Tesla Reporting its earnings Netflix reporting its earnings so I want to talk about that I Think there's a lot going on there. so we're going to be looking into the options market for the overall.

Market Also for the tech sector we're going to be talking about Tesla We're going to be talking about Netflix We're going to be going over the most recent updates of what's going on in the Middle East If there's any political updates here in the US of what's going with the Speaker of the house, obviously, we're going to be getting into that. There's clearly a lot to talk about, a lot to chat about, but while we're waiting things to open up and see how everyone's kind of feeling for the day. Obviously a shout out to today's stream sponsor: I'm talking about Streetbeat pin to the top of Chat in the description of the video. Get Street Beat if you don't want to click on the link if you just want to keep listening to me.

Hey, that's cool, but just download it from the Apple App Store download it from the Google Play Store It is free to download. Strey is a Robo advisor. What in the world does that mean? Well, it means a lot. But if you're wondering, can you buy and sell stock? Yes, of course you can buy and sell stock.

whatever you want, Do it. Uh, but on top of that, what really set Street Peed apart is the fact that it has Buil-in AI capabilities through chat Gbt to create your own trading strategies. On top of that, they have already their own pre-built trading strategies. My favorite one is mimicking what are elected officials are doing.

What they're buying, you could be buying what they're selling. You could be selling if you want to trade like a politician. There in my opinion, is no service that makes it easier than Street beep if you want to check it out and you're like, well, I don't know if it's for me? Yes, no, Maybe. So you could get a free 30-day trial by using the code Matt Use the code mat A to get a free 30-day trial to try out Street be uh, it is international.

It's not just in the US so check to see if it's depending on where you're watching. Most of my viewership base is in the US, but if you're International there's a very good chance that it is available to you in your country. and also from there they every day every week every month they are making new Partnerships with new businesses. Which means that they're partnering up with other brokerages.

As in you can use the money on a different brokerage and just connect it to Straight Beat to use their trading strategies. So it's free to download and you can get a free one- Monon trial. So no harm, no foul, just download it. Get it on the Apple app store, get it on the Google Play Store and when you're signing up on the very first page, use the code Matt I Really, really think you're going to love it I Use it myself I have my own money in it I Let it trade I Love trading with my elected political buddies to see what they're up to.

I Really like it, but that's what's going on. Show them a bit of Love Obviously the Partnerships like this. The sponsorships like this are what make this show even possible. So if you're sitting there and thinking to yourself, hey, what Robo advisor should I be signing up for today I would argue that Street Beat is a good good use of your time pin to the top of chat in the description of the video.

obviously shout out to Street be for being a sponsor of today's stream. and when I say being a sponsor of today's stream, the other sponsor of today's stream is Piper my kitten uh, she didn't necessarily pay me for this but she keeps telling me that she is going to pay me for this. Uh, so it's confusing. but the reason she decided to sponsor today's stream is because when I came back from the gym which no one asked me about.

um I ran 4 and 1 half miles this morning I know I should have ran five but my calf like I've been focusing on not running Heel To Toe which is how I used to run I'm focusing on running toe to heel instead of heel to toe toe to heel which I guess is like the appropriate way to run when you're running a longer distance. and I mean I went almost three decades of my life going Heel To Toe I was very much a heel to toe kind of a person, but now three decades later I'm basically trying to shift everything I mechanically know about running. So now I'm now I'm going toe to heel and when you first make that switch which I would argue is like a sizable shift um, it feels weird like you're definitely using aspects of your calf muscles that you've never used before. So I got in a good 4.8 miles.

someone asked me my Pace nothing too special I'm running at 8 and a half minutes I don't know it's like speed seven or something on whatever my treadmill is but 8 and 1 half minutes it's good. uh coming into it because of the amount of stair stepping I was doing my cardio feels fine. it like the what I find to be the challenging part like legitimately is the like mechanics of it the mechanics of it for sure. um so just trying to figure that out and anyway, crushed that this morning got up at the crack of dawn.

well I was already up at the crack of dawn cuz Piper was keeping me up because at 3 in the morning she decides it's time to party by attacking my feet. which if you've never been, had your feet attacked in the middle of the night it is uh uh it. It's shocking to say the least. It definitely keeps you up.

Uh so anyway I got up at the cadon, decided to go, ran 4 and a half miles and when I came back I was drenched in sweat I looked like I was just in the front row of a Shamu show and she is still down to clown in the morning like she wants to play. so I pick her up I was just holding her, make my coffee, just do whatever and by the time I put her down I realized that half of her body was just soaked. It was kind of disgusting. like she didn't seem to care.

but I thought it was weird. like when fur gets wet and you can see it literally the like whole right side of her body was just drenched in my sweat. um so I felt bad about that and I'm like well I should probably like rinse her off or something but cats hate water so how do I do it? So anyway I ended up just rining her off I toweled her down and she was completely fine with it. Completely fine with it.

Um so anyway because I felt bad I'm going to give her one of these uh, a sponsorship of today's show so not. she's not really selling a product. uh, but she just wants you to have her in like her thoughts and prayers because I'm I'm the adult in the house and she has to deal with me so she basically just wants you to like, think about her and be like wow, must be bad being Matt's cat CU like you get sweat all over yourself like that type of a thing. So uh, shout out to the other sponsor of today's stream.

Christopher Keith Stop talking about your cat. hey Christopher Keith How about you make me? How about you do that tough guy? Why? so Christopher So serious Christopher Before you leave I know you just said Peace I don't know if you left I hope you didn't leave. Um, were you one of those people that was like a hall monitor in like middle school? Before you leave n I'll just leave one less viewer. see please explain it to me.

Are you just like the person who like doesn't like fun, like he can't take a joke? no no I was never the hall monitor. No no no no no no no no it was called. it was called the the hallway officer I wasn't a hall monitor the crossing guard Christopher it it's going to be okay the your world's going to be fine. You shouldn't be trading this early.

Anyway, we're we're only 8 minutes into the day. Look at the volatility. the big money hasn't really positioned itself yet. If anything, I'm doing you a favor.

Christopher If anything, you should be sending me a daily check for all the time that. I'm going on about ridiculous stories this early in the morning because I'm saving you from something you shouldn't be doing, There is not an edge for you. When the Market opens, there's too much. Randomness Okay, I'm out Your gaslighting is boring.

Wait, you think my cat story was gaslighting? It was real. That wasn't That was reality. That was. that was reality gaslighting.

I Think you're gaslighting me by saying I'm gaslighting you YouTube chat Karen here Chris I accept payments in Dogecoin Just so you know there could be a lot less football I Know you like watching Men in Tights play with balls but I only do that once a week 5 time 56 Mr Mathematician Literally, your name is a a math equation that I still have yet to figure out I just do that on Wednesdays It's just a Wednesday thing when I need to know what teams to pick. It's not like every single day I'm asking you to tell me the best football teams and you you have some balls to talk. Mr 5 * 56 What is 5 * 56? 5 * 50 is 250 5 * 6 is is 30. So 280 Do you want me to call you Mr 280 What? 280 Well, I'll have you know this.

I know a lot of people who are 281 plus. So I bet you're embarrassed. You are embarrassed right now Mr 280 28 If you're going to have a math equation in your name, why don't you make it more difficult? Why don't you actually give me a challenge that I can't solve in 10 seconds in my brain? How about that? How about that? Mr 5times 56 Go Blue Oh my. God I I Kind of want to kick all Michigan people out of here like I have an unreasonable disdain for Michigan supporters I Have never met a cohort of people who like, just think they're so special and it's so unwarranted.

That's my entire opinion of the ENT higher school and anyone who has ever gone to Michigan it's a bunch of like wannabe IV League people who just like didn't have what it took to be in the Ivy League whether it was money or the right last name or I don't know. Maybe they were just not the right extracurriculars, but it's a bunch of people who I feel like applied to be in IV League schools and just didn't get accepted. So they ended up at Michigan and then they just act like they are at some sort of Ivy League school. that's my entire opinion of Michigan A bunch of people who like feel like they deserve more in life and then just didn't quite make it.

but then they still just act like they did make it Tom Nash is blue. hey, it is I mean I went to Penn State and if you want to throw some facts out, if you're like, well hang on. it's higher ranked in education. It's higher ranked in football.

Yeah, you're probably right, but that doesn't change my vibe from it like I Know a lot of smart people go there, but that doesn't mean I'm GNA like it I Know the football team's really good, but that doesn't mean I'm going to like it. You can come at me with facts all you want, but that doesn't change the fact that it is October 18th 9:43 in the morning and Michigan still sucks doesn't change it at all. It is October 18th 9:43 in the morning. All the things you could be saying are true and I'm not even necessarily going to disagree.

but that doesn't change the hardened fact of reality that Michigan still sucks. It's just sorry. don't get mad at don't Shoot the messenger I'm the person just explaining facts to you right now and if you get mad at facts, that's just what a Michigan person would do. it's it's not my fault, not my fault at all.

Go Blue First thing I see after that is H go Blue Oh jeez. Well I was trying to to blue pill unon but gold ate all that ate the what does that even mean? Oh geez, All right. Market We are the dash line. So when on these charts, when you see the dash red line, that's the low from two days ago.

And when you see the solid red line, that's the low from the most recent trading day. So I find it to be pretty important to watch those levels. the recent highs and the recent lows of the past two trading days. Um I Also actually liked seeing the last week's High and the last week's low I think those are pivotal levels.

but anyway, we are currently 15 minutes into the day and thus far we popped a little bit. I saved Christopher from yoloing into calls and see how he treats me. You see all the work I put in to find statistical advantages in the market and then people like Christopher Keith shows no respect right here I bet Christopher was ready to YOLO into calls on at 9:34 4 minutes into the day. he's like dude I'm going to do it and then my cat story saved him I don't want to get grandiose here and I don't want to be I guess as he would say gaslighting with visions of grandeur.

but I think there's a pretty good shot I saved his life today and I don't mean that figuratively. I think there's a very very good shot that if he yoed into calls he could have lost that he could have got angry. Maybe he goes on a drive where he's not paying attention and maybe there's like a tractor trailer accident or something like that. But the fact that I made him so angry and he was so into my story I think I saved him from yelling into calls that he would have already blown up.

So like, as much as he doesn't like me I think I still did my job I I Really I Really do I I really think that when when it all came down to it I think I I think I saved Chris from himself I really do but we'll see he'll prob never come back I probably lost I lost a subscriber I lost a viewer but also on the flip side, did I lose a subscriber? Yes Did I lose a viewer but on the other side I wonder how many people in here are brand new and you're like I kind of like that. So yeah, maybe I lost one but I'd be willing to gain bet that there's a net gain you know I think maybe we had to lose Chris to gain some other so are like in chat right now how many of you are like oh I'm here now because you got rid of Chris I guess that's my question cuz we lost Chris to gain who so feel free to raise your hand if you're like oh well you actually got me out of it like I think we just made a trade like we traded like a a fourth round Chris pick for arguably like a couple round one picks in here. Kill one, save a thousand save, save the Cheerleader Save the World Fish queef. Fish Queef was on the on the precipice of leaving, but he's like, you know what that brought me back in.

You know we're technically saving electricity now that Chris is gone. Sacrifice: Chris to the Dinosaurs The best Chris is here. Yeah, at least for Chris Parker He no longer is having his name besched or deluded by other chrises, so if anything it kind of elevated. That's just classic supply and demand we got rid of of weak Supply and the demand for Chris's in here stayed the same.

So the overall value of Chris Parker went up trumpet gifted one Maor membership. That's so kind of you, trumpet. Are we sustainable now? Who knows man, we live in volatile times. As a crystopher myself on behalf of all the Christophers of the world, we reject this one.

This is like the Greg situation all over again. the Greg situation all over again. Anyway, the Spy look at finding itself at support. we should probably check out the options Market Now that we are almost done with the market open type of a situation Chris is probably so pissed I Miss Chris already I Miss Chris already All right.

All right, All right, no more messing around. this is serious business as Chris would say. uh options Market trending down a little bit so the teal Line This top green line is zero DTE the purple line is all expirations and then the white line is the price. So definitely a little bit of a trend down in the first 18 minutes of the day.

but let's check out what else is going on. Uh, so that's in the spy. Let's see what's going on in the tech sector the very influential Tech sector. So in the tech sector price is a little bit more choppy but the all expiration is actually picking up.

so uh, in the tech sector, options are getting a little bit more bullish in the overall Market a little bearish, but ever since 9:45 actually kind of flat kind of neutral. I Decided to keep my membership because of Chris Shout Out Sean the old Shawn versus Chris It's like the Hatfields and the McCoy you know Chris Parker just became a bot fighter Matt Chris 2024 I Wouldn't mind running with him. You know a guy. He's he's the yin to my yang.

He's the guy who's gonna like I'm the I'm the dreamer but he's the realist so he he brings me back to reality. He's kind of the I'm the top tier idea guy and Chris is more of like what can we reasonably execute and I appreciate that I appreciate that with Chris I'd run with him I think we could do a lot of good for the country and I hope you guys I hope we can. both Chris and myself can count on your vote in 2024 in the dollar We Trust how is everything looking right now Dixie Strong dude. the Dixie's been taking a couple couple extra scoops of creatine and Tren if I don't say uh, it's maybe heading up to 10650 so watching that yields.

Also on maybe its second or third cycle of trend. Wow uh, not the best for the market team. Wow. Matt actually got the yin Yang designation.

Correct. Good job Matt I appre appreciate that evil Yeah sometimes I see books I never really read them but sometimes I see them and I I believe in education through osmosis so it works out. Can you throw up Nvidia if you want, how's it doing oo not the best. it's actually kind of looking the exact same thing as Tesla I don't know man, they all got American Gear now for cereal are you talking about American cereal I'm about 10 minutes I will announce spy direction today.

All right Crap Face This is all on you. the success of not only today's stream, but arguably my career is on your prediction. So you're saying at 10 A.m. ET you're going to give us the official call out of where the Market's going today.

I I'm excited I am a jubilee of anticipation I Don't think that's actually the exact proper usage of that world, but it's close enough and we round up. When it comes to words in here, we're we're big fans of rounding up. If you're going to be like a a grammar Nazi we're probably not the right place for you. And also, um, I've gone on record say this in the past but I want to restate it just for all maybe the new viewers.

Uh, but until the day I die uh I will exclaim from all the rooftops that I'm invited on that the Oxford can go itself I Want to be very, very clear of what side of the debate I'm on when it comes to Pro and against the Oxford comma. I very much against it. If I could I would go back in time, find out the person who invented the Oxford comma and beat the out of them. beat the like I would just curb stomp them.

um so I just want it if you guys are like oh, like, what does Matt think about the Oxford comma um against I am fully against fully fully wholeheartedly against if there was one thing I could do if I if I had one Genie witch and I could fix any problem in this world. right now, out of all of the problems that the world is currently facing, I would I would fix the Oxford combo. That's what I would do out of everything going on. I would use my one wish to take care of the Oxford comma.

That's what I would do and I'm not taking it back. You can't make me, you can't make me. Oxford comma is definitely necessary for writing SEO content for e-commerce websites. Well, it won't be after.

my wish won't be sorry Dude, you're wrong. You guys are going to be so sad. You guys better hope I don't get more power than I currently have if I become president of the United States Leader of World Grammar, you guys better hope I Don't get more power than I have because you I'm memorizing these names I'm noticing all the naysayers in here I'm noticing all the Heretics the grammar Heretics Will'll go with uh, you guys, you're going to be in trouble. Maybe I can't do anything about it now I can't I'm going to be honest with you as of 2023 I don't have the power to do anything but you better hope I Don't get anymore because I'm I'm coming after you guys I'm coming after the Oxford comma community and you're going to be sorry you're going to.

You're going to be so sorry you. You better hope you better hope that my power doesn't grow I Don't even use a normal comma, let alone that Oxford thing. oh the Spy breaking down a little I Don't even use commas no less fancy British ones. Oh, all right, so we're flirting.

We're flirting the way cousins do in Alabama should they shouldn't they uh with the low from Monday of this week. If that doesn't hold, I'd be watching uh, just below 433 and then if that doesn't hold I'd be watching the mid 432s So that's what I'm looking for in the Spy right now In terms of the options Market it is leaning bearish. We're seeing the de the Delta the net Delta get more negative in terms of the options Market it's just going flat someone is asking about XOM what's what's going on with exom uh bouncing back back kind of makes sense I mean oil is has been strong Exxon I would argue took uh an outsized abnormal hit on the announcement that it was completing the merger with Pioneer Um, so obviously just kind of a mean reversion play back up to the EMA So Exxon Energy as a whole I mean look at XLE This is the energy sector. Energy sector is looking pretty strong right now.

The financial sector was looking strong but also getting smacked at its 48 EMA and then the other one that I like to pay attention to is the tech sector looking very similar to. The Q's strong rebound got above its EMA Cloud came down maybe finding support right here, but time time to decide. Whenever you come to support or resistance, you're basically flipping a coin. You're saying to yourself, okay, 50% chance of a breakdown or breakout or 50% chance of bouncing SL support depending on which direction you're traveling.

So right here, the tech sector clearly at support, it might break down I don't know it might bounce I Don't know, You just wait for the move to happen and then properly place your risk and hope that you can ride the big Trend after. I Would think that that's a far easier way to look at this situation than trying to be predictive of what's going on. Um I Don't think really retail Traders have much of an edge when it comes to prediction because we're just not privy to the data sets. The Insider Information the higher quality economic analysis we have no political Edge like the average retail Trader Your Edge is not in predicting your Edge is in reacting with proper risk management.

I Wholeheartedly believe that and to this day I've never really heard an argument that is quality. That's counter that point. I I Just I Don't think we have an edge predicting earnings I Don't think we have an edge predicting the next bar in the market no matter what time frame you're on. Don't be predictive, be reactive and use quality risk to reward management.

Do I like Amazon for the next 12 months I Actually don't like much for the next 12 months I Think from now until October of 2024 could be really really Rocky Uh, generically, by the time we get to 2025 2026, then I'm going to start feeling like pretty good. but I I Think we're heading to a recession. In fact, I Already think we're in a recession and the powers to be are just not announcing it because it might look politically bad I Think inflation is worse than people are telling I think the global conflict in the Middle East is closer to getting worse than it is to getting better. So I just I think the amount that the market and spec specifically the tech sector is up right now I think it's a little overstated, but also I Want to make it very clear in the long run: I'm still a fan of Amazon so if you were to buy it now or dollar cost average over the next whatever year I I'm still okay with that because in the long term I still think it's going to be a hyper success.

Um, but but I not the most optimistic on the equities Market over the next 12 months. if anything I think it's going to be kind of relative like I don't know. similar to what we've seen recently. I I'm of the opinion that we're just going to see choppiness I think it's going to be a difficult trading environment I'm not necessarily calling for D-Day but I'm definitely not like calling for a bullish rip.

To the upside: I think that's going to be more of a 2025 2026 type of a thing. Just my opinion though. I mean dude. if you might be listening to me and be like dude, that is the dumbest thing I Have ever heard the Market's obviously going to rip or maybe you're thinking the Market's obviously going to drop.

hey, do whatever you want I'm not a financial adviser I'm not a fortune teller. Do whatever you want. These are simply just my thoughts. You're probably a better Trader than me.

So like if you're like no, I'm a better Trader and I have this on dude. I hope you crush it. Um, these are just my opinions on it. Sideways sucks it does.

It does, it does. it does. But sometimes that's the environment so sell premium. Uh, the three minute getting rejected at its 48 EMA the 10minute came back up, got rejected by the 11 EMA the 30 minute got rejected by the 21 EMA and on The Daily we're It's still an inside bar, but we are actually just above this.

Whatever. this EMA is the 11 EMA I Think kind of bounc off of that at the low. but uh, my point in bringing this up. This is the S&P 500 futures Market My point in bringing this up is the trend is obviously to the downside.

Red Cloud Red Cloud Red Cloud Red Cloud Um, Obviously, if things are going to revert and they totally can, you would first see it in the smaller time frame. You'd see the one minute pop above its 48 EMA then the 3 minute, then the 5 minute, then the 10- minute, then the 15 minute, then the 30 minute. Um, but right now, every major time frame all the way down to 3 minutes all the way to the Daily is favoring the bear. So I'm watching that.

Um, if things revert. obviously they revert first on the lowest time frame as in the 1 minute, then the three minute, blah blah blah um. But also those are the highest odds of a false positive. It could be like a fake out breakout that ends up getting smacked.

That's obviously also totally possible. Uh, I'm definitely better at Burning Money than you Matt uh Chuck I Don't know Man, your boy can piss away money pretty freaking quickly. Pretty pretty quickly. Uh, looks pretty bullish on the 302nd dude.

Lee YOLO long Then seasonality is bullish. It is for October but not today. Specifically today, specifically over the past 25 years is neutral. The Bulls win it a higher percentage of the time.

but when the Bears win it, they win it with bigger magnitude. So it it's a big. It's a bit of a mix bag. a bit of a a mix bag if if you will.

a bit of a mix bag. Oh, order filled, order filled Target filled Target filled Target filled That was actually so easy. that was another 330 that came way quicker than I thought it would order filled target tar Target filled All right. it's actually going so fast I can't even get my fill up to 510 or filled.

Oh wait, I was doing the wrong order size. Well, that's fine. That last one was a little stupid. Uh, that I've I don't know why I keep messing up on ES over here.

which it's actually good I messed up because I tried to short three and then obviously it's already bouncing. Um, and I only got one. So I I'm actually getting lucky that I messed up that order. but I hit three on NQ IIT hit three more on NQ Right now the realized P&l is 510.

the unrealized is down 137. But we'll see how this all plays out. We'll see how this all. We'll see how this all plays.

Out Ooh Open enrollment, Open enrollment start soon! hey are any of you watching Insurance Brokers for the New York New Jersey Connecticut area and if so, can you get me insurance for cheaper cuz I'm tired of paying $500 plus dollars a month for really really bad coverage with super high deductibles. um that would be that would be super super cool. so feel free to shill your own insurance selling capabilities. um I probably shouldn't have gotten into like I really chased it here.

that was dumb I don't know I was just I was feeling over exu definitely over exuberant. 500 is cheaper health insurance not when you have really bad coverage like I have like particularly pissed poor coverage soone say afflac I thought Affleck's health insurance not car insurance oh it is I remember all those coach Prime commercials with it um I think I get I think I screwed myself over Should I just take the $200 hit be up net 350 I guess I could wait for a second. It's not bad. I'm in at 72 so I'm basically risking what I'm up if this were to revert right now.

Well, maybe I could be more intelligent about this he says knowing he's not going to be intelligent. Uh, options Market bounced a little bit at 954 flat on the Spy actually starting to drop on the Q's right here. You could see that apparent drop right at 10:00 a.m. Options definitely went bearish on the Q's for the time being.

Uh, watching this, letting things breathe? uh, trying to trade with Trend Um, obviously I'm going to be I shouldn't have chased right at the end I should have waited for it to come back up into the cloud. but uh, I got lucky by messing the order up and only doing one instead of three. If I did three, I would already be busted up. but maybe I'll get lucky.

Hey I'd rather be lucky than SK when it comes to trading I'm just wondering if I should cut this now or I don't know. wait it out. Yeah I literally tried to bottom ticket. the first trade was good I was like okay, cool.

like Cloud rejection selling off. but maybe I'll get lucky with another Cloud rejection right here. or maybe I'll get completely screwed over. only time will tell.

only time will tell. $500 is cheap. Most employ employers with employee contribution average around 700 to 800. Oh Wow! I pay over 2K a month for a family of four with Anthem and a deductible of 13k.

Well I guess that's on track because I Pay for myself. mine's 500. You're saying a family of four is 2K That makes about I don't know the deductible off the top of my head, but I think the multiple still roughly works out I think mine's about like 2 to 3K. so multiply that by four.

that's about yours. so we're probably on similar. How do you set up these clouds? Oh, the clouds are free. It's just.

it's just EMA lines with better colorization so you can kind of like see what is or isn't going on. Um, oh hang on. How do I want to handle this? How do I want? Let me move it up there for now while we talk about the colorization. Um, this.

just go to trading View and go to indicators and search SAT A and you're going to find this Sat pivot ribbon. It's free. You don't have to pay anything. Um, this is just an EMA Cloud I Think it's the 8, the 11, the 13, the 21.

um I I used to have them all. I mean they're all up here. What is it? The8 the 21 and the 34 and then the 13 and the 48. Um, so the the two lines, the purple one is a 48, the gray one is the 13.

and then to create the cloud, these three different colors have the8 the 21 and the 34. Um, so it's just EMAs but it's nice. instead of just having lines I think The colorization in a very quick manner like kind of helps you start to like pair some of the stuff together of like without looking at. okay like what lines what? I I I Just think I like how speedy it is to be like oh okay like which direction are we going So like with this without even knowing the ma, you could be like oh clearly red.

Clearly red. Clearly red. Clearly red. But speaking of that obviously uh, the five 5 minute showing in early sign of a potential reversal.

Watching for the 5 minute to get above and it is above but closing Above This 48 EMA um what do we have? options are starting to pick up. Options are going bullish. Options are definitely going bullish. Interesting.

Uh I Actually think I might want to cut my position I think I want to cut my position here? um hang on one second I hear someone knocking on my door I don't know what to do with my position I don't know if it's going to get blown out. What do I do I think someone's here? hang on one second I'll be right back. sorry about that I am back. um it was the the building or whatever is doing the like the filter and fire alarm checking.

so if you hear my alarms going off I paused it for some they were setting off like two or three. I guess to make sure I don't die in some sort of fiery issue. um but I appreciate it. Sorry about that but if you do hear fire alarms going, just just know it's not my fault, not my fault.

uh do I want to take it? Uh, looks like we might have a little bit of a re a little bit of a rejection going on. a little bit of a rejection going on? Uh nope. Am I going to get screwed here. Dude, is this going to blow it out? Is this going to blow it out? Is this going to blow it out? No.

I feel good I feel good I feel good I feel good. um if this batch of Trades hit I'll be good for the day. don't want to get too greedy with it, don't want to get too greedy with it. Oh I was I was feeling good for a second there as this was a try to break out got smacked.

Obviously my risk would just be this recent High because if it reverse all the way back up there sometimes you just have to admit loss. but I was just a quick little pop down here would make me feel a lot better. Um the options Market on the Spy did pop all the way up but now flat and then on the q's it's just been going flat. not really bullish or bearish on the sorry if you could hear that I'm hearing the alarm go off.

but options Market stopped the buying at 10:07 at 10:0 Is it done? Is it done? Is it done? Is it done? Is it done? I Can still here I'm sorry if you guys can hear it at least I have these on to protect my ears. You guys are just getting it like right through the mic. right through the mic. Dude, there's no way Piper is happy.

No way. She stoked right now. She's probably one unhappy kid. I should actually go check on there.

We go. One down, one of seven down Target fill three of seven down. three of seven down. three of seven down down.

Three of seven down. four more, four more, four more. Let's go back to break even. Let's go.

let's go. Let's go. let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. let's go. Uh, maybe I should have just taken my money at break even I'm still feeling good about it though. Honestly, he says right when it starts to bounce.

tried to break out got smacked but it caught itself a point away from where I needed it all right? So I'm done with Enq. I've traded Enq like three times so should be good on that. What earnings are coming? Uh, after the market closes today, we have Tesla and Netflix before the market opened. The major ones were Morgan Sanley and Proctor and Gamble, both of which beat.

Obviously there's many other earnings, but it appears like those are The ones that most people end up caring about. Um, that's at least how it seems. Come on, come on, come on. come on.

come on come on come on come on. come on. come on. come on.

come on. come on. come on. come on.

come on. come on come on