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Day 9 Coverage
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
Hey testing testing testing did i make it back. Did i make it back to hang out with all of you cool, kids uh? I have no idea testing testing test. Number eight. Am i live test number eight test number eight.
Maybe this one will work. Oh wait! I see someone so am i live again, so my computer completely froze there. I don't know what's going on, but i think i'm live with all of you. I have a sneaky suspicion that i am now live with all of you uh.
I am oh okay, cool. It's working, it only took like eight tries later. That's apparently, the secret in this world is just eight tries, not a bad deal we'll take that you can't win them all uh all right. I think i'm good, i think we're live.
I could see you you could see me. I think it's a whole thing and i think i'm live on rumble and i think i'm live on twitch. Okay, it looks like we got all those problems figured out uh all right. So where were we at a lot of craziness hang on? Let me pin it once again, true trading group pinned to the top of chat's, also in the description of the video.
If you are there on rumble, which now should be working, but anyway, what happened in the overnight session? My apologies for those tech issues, but we're live and let's just get to it, because we do have 23 minutes to figure out, hopefully how we can make some money today anyway. This crater was all basically about reports of russian forces taking over a nuclear power plant and then from there we're seeing a little bit of a recovery we sold off. This was just kind of like the overnight session we led into the asia session and then more recently, right at 8 30 a.m. Et we saw a pop, obviously the pop unfortunately not holding, but i do have a report for you.
Uh february payrolls rolls a surprisingly strong, 678 000 as job market shows resilience um, and just so you know we're expected to increase 440.. So that was a clear out performance uh. They were expecting 440, we got 678.. So at first we saw the stock futures trim losses after stronger than expected jobs report.
That's exactly this movement right here, but as you're, seeing in real time not really holding dow futures down 300 points, as investors weigh war in ukraine stronger than expected jobs report. So basically the jobs report came in, and people like okay, i like that - but we're still seeing some pretty unfortunate sad developments and a rise, a continued rise in tensions in ukraine, with putin's actions. So obviously, at first we got a little bit of a relief and people were like. Well, it's not enough to actually get us to be bullish on it, and at least that's what we're seeing in pre-market.
Remember all this can change in a second uh. Apparently this is some breaking news, disney plus to launch cheaper ad supported tier later this year. So that's just coming out so dis disney. You might be seeing a reaction in that stock.
Let's just check this in real time to see. What's going on that was actually selling off a little bit yesterday and it's still okay, so not really moving the stock. I just want to share, because it's apparently some breaking news so we're seeing a lot of whips on the whip saw the positive whips always because of a stronger than expected jobs report. The negative whipsaw is obviously because of ukraine limited ceasefire reach for civilian evacuations, as russian forces cut off key cities. So one of the interesting developments yesterday from both sides talking was um. I believe they refer to it as a humanitarian corridor. So, basically, right here limited ceasefire, reach for civilian evacuations, as russian forces cut off key cities, and on top of that, it's not just civilian evacuations, but they have like. I guess these pathways that are for, like delivery of goods uh, the sides were able to agree on that, so a little bit of a positive update there, but then there's obviously th.
This is war folks. This is crazy, stuff like whenever we have something, that's positive. It's exclusively the silver lining to an overall situation is the best way i could describe all of this. Uh live updates.
Russia seizes ukraine's largest nuclear power plant uh, so the latest updates about an hour ago, ukraine said russian forces has seized uh there's no way, i'm even gon na try to say this nuclear power plant, but the radiation levels were stable. The u.s called the russian attack on the nuclear power plant a war crime. Uk intelligence said the strategic port city of maripool was being hit by intense russian strikes. So this is why we're seeing in the overnight session a lot of the bearish negative activity in the market is because we have some very serious unfortunate things occurring in the real world.
Uh we've been talking quite a bit about this, sanctioned sanction sanctions, not just the us, but the rest of the global world is continuing to ratchet up the from a financial standpoint. The sanctions on russian russian oligarchs putin himself lavrov all these people and i had an interesting story. I just wanted to quickly share with you. Russia's richest man, uh transfers, control of a 1.1 billion dollar stake in a mining company to his wife uh.
According to a recent filing, so obviously their buddy buddy - and you just are seeing all these people in positions of power who are being hit with these sanctions, trying to do what they can to skirt around it. I know a lot of this discussion is centered around the world of crypto, but we're seeing some other tactics that they're trying to take a russian billionaire passed. Control of a 1.1 billion stake in nord gold to his wife. Alexi resigned on tuesday as director at nordgold and from the board to of a travel firm uh the european union put more.
This is the guy alexei on a sanctions list following russia invasion, so this is definitely one of those rich bigwigs who should be sanctioned. Clear ties to putin and we're seeing a financial way that he's trying to skirt around. What's going on, i have a feeling the fact that this is already getting so much noise and notoriety and eyes on it. I don't think this is going to play out the way. He is another thing, and i fully understand this in the grand scheme of the fact that people are literally battling for their lives is very, very small. But i just want to cover what's going on because it's another part of the story of you're, seeing the rich and elite of russia trying to skirt around - and i do i don't know - i find a little bit of happiness in the fact that the world community Is doing what it can to not allow it maps show russian oligarch yachts around the world as some flee to places they can't get seized so insider mapped out the locations of 19 yachts belonging to russian oligarch sanctions prompted by putin's invasion of ukraine, have put their Prize assets in danger, several of their yachts, appear to be heading to locations where they can't be seized. So, first of all, shout out to insider they're, actively tracking it right here. You can check this particular article out yourself and see where it is the owner.
The ship blah blah blah all that stuff and it looks like the place that they're trying to get is the maldives. Insider's map also shows four mega yachts belonging to these guys, uh we're in the maldives, the maldives, a small island nation in the indian ocean, does not have an extradition treaty with the us and there's other like when you get to maritime law and rules. It gets really really interesting, like that's a whole subset itself, so i'm sure they have a lot of people and lawyers looking into where they can and can't go uh, but you're, seeing some interesting movement and there are some reports i believe uh. I don't even know.
What's beyond a mega yacht, but there was a 500-foot one that was seized and the guy is not getting it back. Russia's war against ukraine could spiral into the world's worst energy crisis since the 1970s, a top economic historian says the world may be facing the worst energy crisis since the arab oil embargo and the iranian revolution. This is a supply crisis. It's a logistics crisis.
It's a payment crisis. Major companies like shown bb refusing to do business with russia is a first um. So if you haven't been checking oil, it's been going absolutely bonkers, so we can look at the price of crude oil per barrel right here. The daily i mean ever since december, it has not stopped.
It's gone from 65 a barrel, we're right now at 112. uh for a bit there. I was absurdly confident of it going over 100 and i actually still think it's going over 120 and as this is continuing to play out and we're not really seeing any signs in the energy sector of things slowing down, we might be looking at 125.. I am still calling for 120 125 a barrel on oil, so before all of this, at the start of the year, the sectors i was most bullish on were energy and financials and financials. That's because of the rate hike. These big banks are going to be making more money because we're going to get our first series of rate hikes once again. The first one coming out in about two weeks, uh going to be 25 bips, but in terms of energy supply, was already being crunched and demand was already rising when you have supply getting crunch demand going up. Of course, price is going to go up.
This whole scenario with putin and his war on ukraine and potentially more, let's see how this plays out. It's going to just drive energy higher and higher and higher, there's, no, if ands or buts about it. This is just natural when russia's providing so much crude oil, natural gas, gasoline and other things to the remainder of the world and then all of a sudden they're getting cut off, and maybe not even wanting to do business. For example, canada already said they are no longer importing it and i think many other countries are going to follow just so you know in the us 25 of our imported gasoline, just under 25 comes from russia.
I don't know if you've been to the gas pumps in a bit, prices are going up, they are unfortunately not going to stop it. They just aren't. I think this will continue to rip and rip and rip until something gets under control, but even opec and their allies they're not they're, doing i guess a little bit. They release some but they're not doing an extraordinary amount, they're, not really releasing supply.
So the supply constraints are going to stay around as diminu um like demand continues to go up and up and up so here's a look at oil and another. The one that i wanted to talk about before we just get into the generic breakdown of the day is wheat, wheat, wheat, wheat, hang on. Let me show you on the futures market right here. Zw wheat is another one uh, so wheat is actually a big export for ukraine right now.
Ukraine is not focused on exporting weak. They have some other big things going on in their life. This is exactly why, when we're seeing oil rip you're seeing wheat, i mean ever since, let's just take mid feb we're up. 50.
Wheat relates to a lot of other things in this world, and i implore you to do a little bit more of a deep dive. The same way, crude oil is used to make many other things. Wheat is used to make many other things, and right now you are seeing wheat prices go sky high. If this is on the futures market, if you want to play it on the like equities market, you could look at w-e-a-t if you think these things are not going to be common down anytime soon.
I mean it's the way right here, this one's up 56. The way, if you look at gc, uh gold futures, like that's pretty much equivalent to gld on the equities market or uso, is equivalent to cl on the equities market. So right here there are generally like equity market equivalents of what you're seeing in the world of futures. So if that's something that you're interested in, because wheat is still going higher and higher and higher for me it's a bit chasey. I wish i got in a little bit closer, maybe on this break at around 8 50.. But overall, if you just don't really think there's going to be signs of this slowing down, i just want to call it out to you. Maybe something you want to do. A little bit more of a deep dive into and pay attention to see how it is playing out.
Five things to know before the stock market opens today, friday march, 4th futures fall in ukraine. Nuclear power plant worries ahead of jobs data, so the job data was bullish, but not bullish enough to outweigh the concerns of what's going on uh right now with ukraine, and particularly today, the power plant uh february hiring expected to be robust along with wage increases. Yes, it was across the board bond yields, dip u.s oil, u.s oil prices rise on russia, ukraine conflict. We went over that.
I think energy costs go higher and higher and higher you're gon na feel it in your heating bill. You're gon na feel it in your gasoline bill. Your diesel bill energy costs are going up russian forces these major ukrainian nuclear power plant. That's exactly why we sold off in the overnight session gap shares rise after the retailer issues.
Upbeat 2022 guidance also uh in some pre-market action. I think we're seeing some tesla movement as well. I believe he was kind of fighting with a particular union uh, so it's down, but not that much uh. I saw some other developments there uh earlier in the session, but yeah he was like fighting with one of the big like auto union type play things um.
Obviously there are still on a macro economic level. There's a lot going on we're seeing oil going sky high. We're seeing wheat going sky high, but there's also big movements on individual stock. So, for example, i know a lot of you are still actively paying attention to amc.
It's sold off bounce off the 1760. Let's see if that can recover. Gme uh coming down a little bit. I i'm a little bit bummed out that it's not holding 120, but let's see what the normal market session brings us and the other one i want to talk a little bit more about is m-u-l-n.
So, first of all, i have no m-u-l-n position and i will not have an in position. For me. The float is just too small. I don't like low float, penny socks.
I've been burned too many times. It's just not something i'm interested in. What i am interested in is a lot of the and a lot of the manipulation that is going on in this. If you want to follow a person who is tracking this in far more detail than i am check out, true demon, i believe not only his discord but also, i believe his youtube page is uh.
The stock broker uh wait. Dilly are you in here? I want to get the exact name of both because i think they're actually hell satan's, like i, i think, there's a slightly different name for the discord and also for the youtube page. I don't think that they picked the exact same name, but you should also just be following truedemon on twitter as well. The devil's stockbroker is definitely the youtube page and i believe the discord is hell's trading floor. I think i'm getting that right, but anyway follow those accounts. If you want to track what's going on with muln, let me give you the quick rundown of it number one. Let's talk about short exempts when you are on ssr short sale restriction. You cannot that you get on the list by from the oh, the previous days, like close to where you are.
If you drop 10 you're put on ssr ssr means you can only short into an uptick, it stops the dog piling effect. That's what it's attempting to do? It's not really that good but anyway, so if you are down more than 10 and it keeps going, you shouldn't be able to short, but there is short exemptions and most of the time it's from market makers almost all the time. It's from market makers and when they're allowed to go short, exempt and sell stock when other people like can't be shorting, is basically up to their own interpretation if they think it is appropriate for the current market. Basically, they're saying hey: no, that we need to provide liquidity.
We have to do this. That's how you can do it. What's crazy, though, is that there are certain spikes in the data which is all publicly available through finra, where you're seeing a jump. In short, exempts.
That's greater or at least the same level of the entire float of the stock, so, for example, on this one i believe the number is 22 million. How in the world can you have a float of 22 million and then the short exempts in a single day is 22 million um? Maybe there's an explanation and i sent some emails to people who might be able to like really break it down to me for how it's possible, but right now, as i'm talking about it this morning, my only i guess way i could come up with. It is just synthetic fake shares, that's obviously the easiest example for it um. So that's number one with muln and then also number two is just the crazy scenario that they're in that relates to some a very toxic financing deal.
Basically, you have a loan shark of a situation where they are just buying the stock buying the stock selling it and then they're selling it off to other people, which is part of their deal. They're in this, like crazy, crazy scenario where they're just tied up with an awful awful financing deal and they're continually taking nine point something percent of the stock and selling it for 68 cents to their like other subsidiary related businesses. It's a crazy, crazy deal, it's fraud! It's manipulation across the board, so i just wanted to give a little bit more time to m-u-l-n but to clarify. I have no position and i will not have a position, but i'm going to talk about that. We see in the market over and over because someone needs to be shining a light on it and uh. Definitely obviously a special shout out to true demon and the group bringing this particular. I guess effort of malfeasance to light all right. Let me go over some other things that we have going on.
I just want to give you the most recent updates, uh that we have out of. I guess like in the world of finance media, particularly in ukraine. Russia recommends fertilizer makers to halt exports white house. May extend student loan payment pause, credit, suisse wealth clients face margin, calls on russia assets disney plus we went over that uh evans don't see, fed going back to mid 1990s rate levels, uh fed doing 25 basis.
Points of rate hikes at each meeting may be more than essential. We're definitely just going to be looking at a series of 25 bip rates hikes. I should say this is not the 1970s story of how inflation got out of hand. This is leaped up responsibility to prevent full-fledged european war uh yeah.
Let's hope that it doesn't come there. Obviously swiss government, okay, so those are some of the more recent things i just wanted to know. If there was anything in real time that i could give you uh related to the like nuclear facility, uh very very quickly, just so you know, amc has a current short interest of 21 percent. Gme is just below 18, the s p, 500, just below 16..
The qs are uh just above 15 and then the russell we're actually seeing in the small cap sector a continued increase in the shorts against the small cap sector. Just so everyone knows now. Let's take a quick look at the charts, so we had a fake out breakout attempt in the s p 500 right now. Where did we close? Yes or the low of yesterday was 433.80, which means we are going to be gapping down this morning.
Our opening price of 431.78 is not going to be it's going to be lower than the low of yesterday creating a gap in the charts, and you know me with gapfield - plays i like him. I know there's a statistical edge to it, so yesterday's gap will be 433.80. If we see some bullishness coming out of the gate, i'm more than happy to play it but remember, gapfield plays don't have to happen the very next day it might take. A couple days weeks months, something like that and in fact they don't have to get filled.
It's just there's the odds of it getting filled relatively quickly so on the overall market, i'm if there's buyers out of the gate, i will be looking for that. Gap-Filled play um if there's weakness out of the gate and we break below 430 i'll be watching around 4 28. But if we end up not holding that, let's give it a little bit of a wiggle room of, say: 50 cents. If we can't hold the 427 to 429 region, i think we might be coming back down to the low 420s. So that's my, i guess my looks out of the gate. If we're bullish, i'll be looking for the gap fill if we're bearish i'll be looking for. The hold around 428 427 somewhere around there, and if that doesn't hold, i will be playing it down to the low 420s, similar overall chart setup in the nasdaq. Once again, we are gapping down uh.
I will be watching this region of 335 if it can't hold, but obviously, on the top side, we could play that capital same thing with the small cap sector, which now has an increasing short interest right in the realm of 43 uh, so i'll be watching this Um, i want to see if it can quickly recapture 200. That's a key level if it can't i'll be watching 197 and some change uh in terms of amc, amc, it popped up and right now we're just kind of barcoding sideways, so i'm gon na see if it can hold above this 17 and a half level, would Love the breakout of 19. in terms of gme same thing: uh, we're just kind of trading sideways, we're waiting for the trend to break one way or another to get like the next level of technical breakdown uh in terms of m. U l n m-u-l-n, so we had this pop.
We had a huge spike in short, exempts exceeding the amount of the float, which is just still insanely uncanny. We're getting a little bit of a positive push in pre-market, would love to say the breakout of. Obviously, a dollar and then from there a dollar, 18. uh tesla, getting some volatile movement lately.
So let's just bring that one up um. It looks a little bit heavy we're seeing um some positivity in pre-market right now, which is definitely means that moving uh. But if it breaks below 8 35, i'm then back to watching 800 just to be clear about that one another one that's been having some craziness lately is d-wack. I still have my d-wack calls just to be very, very clear about this one.
I am long on dwack, i am bullish on dweck. I have dwac calls for the march monthlies. If you want more information about that, make sure you're going to macquaries.locals.com. That's where i post all of these like equities and option trades, and sometimes some of the future ones um, depending on what the strategy is or isn't so right now we're seeing a little bit of chop in this pre-market.
Uh interesting excited to see how this like really does get going today. Uh. The first thing: i'm watching out of the gate is the s. P 500 gap filled to the top side, which, let me specifically mark that out is 433 80.
433 80.. This is the gap fill. Let me get rid of this top one. This is the gap, fill region right here uh, so that will be my first watch out of the gate to see if there's some bullishness i'll i'll - let you know if i end up playing that or not playing that um.
Actually d-wack was having some nice stuff already this morning. Maybe we'll leave that open. Okay, that's the bell's about to go ding-ding-ding-ding as we're waiting for the market to open and to breathe a bit uh. Please please please let your questions fire so we'll go through your questions and we'll also pay attention to whatever the breaking news is in uh the whole ukraine debacle of the invasion. But let's get ready to go we're about 30 seconds out. It is friday. Hopefully it's gon na end up being a money making friday, let's get going. If you haven't already, could you please please, please destroy that like button, it is always great to be at 1k likes above 1k likes before that bell goes ding any ding, ding ding.
It just really helps me out with the algorithm. Also, don't forget to join up with the moon gang by hitting that subscribe button. Let's see if we can make some money, how do we see you on the john stewart program on apple tv? It's episode. 5..
The casino is now open. Let's see how we're doing this thing, let's do this. Let's do this all right, let's see, let's see, let's see, i wonder if we're going to get that push to 4. What is it? 4.
33.80 amc recapturing 18. We have some resistance at 1825., dewac, apparently not moving this morning, so we don't really need gme may be pushing that 120 level muln at 91 cents. Currently, let's see how that's gon na end up playing out all right, we're seeing the spy getting a bit of a push getting a bit of a push there. We go.
Let's, let's go spy. Let's do your thing, an ideal scenario for me: uh like to play this spy gap fill just because i don't want to get in right out of the gate is: if we get a nice push, it's so some strength a little bit of a breather. I want to see that higher low and as we swing back around, that's particularly what i would be looking for just so. You know what i'm actively thinking about all right: gme, not getting much volume mul and not moving all right.
What's moving today, i need some movers folks what should be up on the screen. We need some excitement. What is this? We currently have two b-52 circulating over romania just off the black sea, probably a show of force because they still haven't transponders, but still i haven't heard about that, but i also wouldn't be surprised at all. Sounds like oil is currently ripping.
Oil is ripping like a madman, still futures. Let's bring up oil wow oil is very much ripping. Oh geez oil oil oil. Look at that in like five minutes it went from 112 to 113 a barrel.
Folks, if you haven't like i know, many people don't actively pour over oil charts, but this is so incredibly incredibly volatile. This stuff does not like normally happen wild. Are we seeing wheat still ripping wheat doing its thing? We talked about that a little bit w-e-a-t uh you're, just seeing some of these supply constraints really come out. So here's um, the united states oil fund gon na look similar.
I suppose we doing its thing amc getting as high as 1880. We know there's resistance at 18 20, thus far getting a little bit smacked there. Wheat still going. You know i've, never ever traded wheat. Maybe today will be our first day. How can you short oil? I suppose you could short uso or like something like xom. You could get puts on it. Uh i am personally not really attempting to short oil at this moment in time seems awfully dangerous to me awfully dangerous to me all right.
I guess we're not getting a quick morning gap. Phil, wait! This is just crazy, but hey. If you want a short oil, remember, i'm no financial advisor when you are in your 20s, and you say this sort of thing doesn't usually happen, i'm in my 20s, but i also have the capability to look at what happened historically, just because you're in your 20s Doesn't mean you're not allowed to see data from the 90s and the 80s and the 70s there is this really really cool thing referred to as the internet and within the internet? There's also, this thing called google and, on this thing called google, it's kind of like a a big storage of data, and you could read all these like little weird symbols and stuff on the screen and those symbols can sometimes like contain information about what happened. Historically.
Uh, so when you look at it historically, you you can it's almost as you can like know what happened before you were even born. It's interesting like, for example, now that we're talking about like wars in this type of stuff. I actually wasn't alive for world war ii, but i like know it was a thing because, like i've read about it, so it's interesting just just some food for thought. Imagine that imagine if our world only worked on believing things that you like actively lived through, that'd be interesting, they're like or if, like you had to experience it is that why a lot of people who deny the moon landing or like that, i don't know i Haven't been on the moon myself, i'm not sure about that one! All right now are we gon na get this gap? Phil? Are we aren't we i want a gap.
Phil mullen is on the move. It is on the move. Okay, the next logical, big test is gon na, be a dollar just such a key psychological level uh on the spy. I'm curious, if it's gon na take out this intraday high 430 250.
If it does, then i'm watching 430 and then this the gap. Excuse me 433, and then the gap fell at 433.80 uh. A lot of i guess: indecision at market, open amc, looking good it's at its resistance, literally just broke out of its resistance. Uh wheat is very much picking up.
I don't have i ever traded wheat. How do i hang on wheat? I don't even know what the wheat contract is. It's z, it's w, hang on at w nope that one's not the right one at yw, nope, zw xw. I guess i'm just not gon na be able to trade wheat on this particular day.
Yw zw, it's something with a w has to be wheat - is just ripping m uln attempt one got smacked at 95.. Zw is the zw it just wasn't coming up on my trade set, but hang on. Oh, it's probably because of market hours, it looks like the futures market is not currently trading. It was trading. What time does this open? Four to nine? Oh, this trades under weird hours, all right, definitely not trading the futures market, but one exposure you could get to it is of w-e-a-t, which then brings me up to wheat. We tweet wheat, wheat, maybe i'll lock in. I have an idea. I have an idea.
Wait time to profit off some of the bagels i've eaten in this life, i'm thinking about so remember. Today we have a the credit spread play that will be most likely ah spy. What are you doing? Man, not cool that doesn't look like a gap, feel to me amc at its resistance gme at 118.. Let me know if it gets over 120 all right spy going the opposite way.
Where are we so the spy that one's up? I could just wait on that as long as it's above i suppose, 423 by the end of today, that's a hundred percent, i'm gon na. Let that one ride there's no sense in closing that out and i'm still in dwack, currently down fifty percent very small position in dweck, but it's the monthly. So we have time man the spy not wanting to do. What i wanted to do come on.
Man be cool about this, give us that gap phil be cool about this, it's being super uncool, all right, mulan, all right. What else do we have? Prague is up dollar 24. That's up two and a half percent on the day. What else do we have going on? Let's see how the queues are looking the queues, unfortunately, taking a breather, not holding 340.
uh. What i want to go over very, very quickly, hang on. I want to show you what the whales are doing, but it looks like we're seeing some bearishness out of the gate. Thoughts on amc covered calls uh.
I, if your portfolio is like super super heavy on amc and gme um or either of those and or both, and you don't want to get rid of those but you're still looking to generate some extra like money to maybe buy more shares. I think covered calls. Are a good idea but understand you're, taking the risk of if it does move in a very bullish manner in that time frame, you're, taking the risk of probably having to cut it like just because, like that's, the risk of a covered call, is basically giving up Your shares at the strike so if, for some reason, you're unfortunate and it's within that time frame, that's your risk of probably having to buy back the calls at an expensive price. But that's just i guess, for everyone to consider and the way you could like.
I guess mitigate that risk or take more or less well, that's the strike, and then that's also your time frame type of a deal. But overall, i think there is a well-structured way to do it and you earn more premium. You collect the premium and ideally from there, you're going to be able to buy more of what you want to buy more of, but yeah just understand that the risk of a covered call is less profit. If you are wrong in terms of the fact that you own the stock - but you also sow calls against it and it starts to go up, especially above your strike there um and they get exercised your profit could theoretically. Well, it's not theoretically, it will get capped at that strike price. So let's say you sold it at 20 or 25 or whatever, let's say 25, and let's say it goes up to 25. Well, okay, you're gon na be fine, but if it goes to 2627, you only get the profits up to 25. So that's why you might be in danger of like if you don't want that to happen to you.
You're gon na have to like buy those calls back, and if you want more of a thorough breakdown on the world of, i guess really covered calls. There's. Definitely various videos on the main channel on coors light all that stuff. Can we talk about bruno uh, muln, traded, the entire flow again today, so just trading the float in the day.
That's nothing too special to me, especially in a cheaper stock, that a lot of people are talking about it traded 22. Mil. The crazy thing to me is when you have short exempts that are matching the entire flow. Whenever you have something that's volatile and popular, it's actually you're gon na.
I can't say it's common, but there are many examples like per month where you're going to have an equity trade, its entire flow, and that just shows you how crazy it's going with like high frequency traders and market makers and that type of stuff trading. The float in a day alone is not an indicative of manipulation or fraud. Uh. The things that get really funky in mulen's case is, when you see short, exempts at the exact same level of flow.
That's something that should be raising everyone's eyebrows learn the wheel strategy to farm premium. I mean farming premium, it's boring, but it's just such a great way for weekly and or monthly income. Solid solid, like percentage gain and at first you're gon na be bored but and like the numbers, won't be that big, unless you're already like gon na be starting with just like a massive account. But man, oh man, the money you can make in terms of compound interest like if all of a sudden you get started and at first you're bored, the first couple months and then six months in eight months in you're, starting to make some decent money, maybe like Paying a couple bills here and there once in a while with it and then a couple years in you're making like there are many many examples of people who started it out and then a couple years later because of compound interest and then refining their own strategy.
Like they make it their full-time income, what is a short exempt? It's when, basically, a market maker is allowed to sell stock short, when no one else is allowed to short, and it's basically because of ssr, hey matt check out mmtlp. When you have a moment, if you're up, please advise your thoughts i loaded up three weeks ago and i'm waiting to rock it. So i believe mmtlp isn't that the like dividend, holder, uh for mm-80 or something like that, all right. I guess the spy is deciding to go down today. Wheat kind of coasting queues, also getting a little bit beat up. I guess we're as of now, i'm just looking we're first. The first 15 minutes in this is a very, very good example of why i don't like to make those new trades, especially in the equities market, right out of the gate. Just because you don't know what the trend is going to be.
It's times like this. That are you going to miss trades 100 you're not going to catch everything that you want and you might have been able to get better positions by getting in uh right out of the gate. But i would rather miss a trade than get whipsawed, because on this you might have got captain blake. Oh, it's going to come in we're going to get that gap bill, but it was a little bit too early and then right now we're just getting like dumped on.
Let me quickly check some of the internals for you of what's going on in the overall market. Still getting some bearish readings still getting some bearish readings. Well, this is an important level. 430.
I want to see if it's going to hold this, if i had to guess i'm betting, that the keltner's overextended yeah we're on the bottom side here. So, let's see, if we're gon na bounce off of this or not, and also let me get into one technician that i very much trust his name is adam mancini and he put some awesome breakdowns for the overall market uh day. Six of es stuck on repeat making the round trip between 4400 and 4280 overnight, 4 300, with support and held for a nice 60 point bounce, then faded planned today. Bulls need to clear 4 350 to be safe, opening four, four ten, four four five is weak.
Now fails, uh sees fifty 4250 five last chance before four thousand two hundred, so we're basically at a key level right now, a very key level in the overall market. Let me just show you this just because, as i'm more built out he's basically saying 4 300 is a very, very key level that we need to hold and, if not he's, feeling confident about 4270, which is right about halfway in my region. So people are looking for support literally at the level we're at right. Now the queues are getting smacked.
Emu ellen's, getting smacked amc got rejected hard down to 1760.. Let's check in on gme there's just selling i mean tesla is trying to go green, but everything else up like it's just all red i'm seeing uh avalanche is green other than that. I have no positive thing on my chart right now: wow man, oh man. What kind of day are we having i'm looking for this, i'm looking for the spy to decide what it wants to do? Is it going to hold 430 fighting it's fighting? What are the whales doing iwm put spy puts by put amazon, put put xlf, put put spy put one test, a call iwm put stop me if you've heard this song, but there's a lot of puts in the options market crypto getting hit right now. Man, oh man, let me throw amc down here. Let me throw the cues up here: wow man, oh man, jobs report. The jobs report was a positive jobs report, but in a weird way it could be thought of as a catch-22, because that's representative of the economy and if the economy is that strong, that might lead the fed to being more hawkish and if they're, more hawkish. That's less accommodative for the overall market, so the spy is at somewhat of an important level, but the queues that are at a more important level.
I'm curious if this is going to lead to a bounce back to 339. um this. When i see this, was it looking weak? Yes did i go short, no because it's chasing you're on the outside of a keltner channel, especially depending on your time frame right, but looking at the minute chart, i want to see what this bounce there had to be. A bounce at a certain point, the question is, is how much is that bounce gon na be? Is it gon na be muted and just be like one little green bar and then we're gon na like kind of putter out and turn back around that'd be bearish? Are we gon na come up, show a medium amount of strength and test the midline, or is this just gon na be like one of those weird v-shaped things where they scare everyone they trap them and then they just rip it um, i'm watching and i'm looking Really at the spy around 431 and the q's at 339., that would be my medium level if it doesn't even get there.
That's more bearish if we get above it, that's more bullish. So that's kind of like the midpoint that i'm watching out of the gate this morning - and here we are more of like this range bound between 440 and 428 ever like we're just one two, three four five. This is day six of this between 4 28 and 4 40. uh.
This is clearly the range that we are, unfortunately, just like the purgatory that we're living in this is our range just another day of this exact range um. If this breaks down that becomes a very viable play, obviously it could easily bounce off of it and it might just bring us a round trip back up to 440. But right now we are just obviously range round uh. If we do get a breakout in either direction to the upside or the downside, yeah very, very valid play, but i just wanted to show you a little bit of the bigger picture of what's been going on.
We shoot up, we come down, we shoot up. We come down um every time we hit the support. Every time we hit this resistance. Those key levels are getting a little bit weaker.
It is soaking up that supply, but thus far they've been representing quite a bit of supply. I i'm my personally just as i'm sharing my thoughts with you, i'm a little bit torn right now on where i see this morning session going just because yeah, i know, there's a gap up that we could fill to the fourth 33 80 level, and i like That, because i know the odds of a gap they'll play, but then we're also seeing a bunch of whales coming in with puts like the big money people the puts this morning are being dominated to the tune of 64. So and i'm also seeing some weakness in crypto, so i don't know it's a weird whipsaw type of a day. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they run it up, gap fill and then pull the rug. That's a very, very real scenario, but before we get there, let's see if we can even recapture 432 all right. The spy is getting to my mid-level test of like okay, a mid-level bounce, so not absurdly, bearish like bearish would have been like if it really turned. First, but let's see if it can tap 431, the tech sector is struggling right now. This is not getting an equivalent size.
Bounce back and i'll show you the keltner on that very very quickly. Yeah see both of these got overextended and then bounced off of support, and let's see a test of this, just like this midline tesla all right we're seeing some green things at first, everything was red, but now dwack is green. Bbig is green, tesla is green, lucid is green, prague is green and i looking heavy looking heavy are. There updates hang on i'm going to leave the charts up, so you guys can all see it, and i just want to know if there's any geopolitical updates lincoln says committed to do everything to make war stops.
Oil is jumping very, very high, uh talks underway for u.s energy production boost. We will see higher gasoline prices here. We already that's a given. How high is oil right now? Is oil still ripping oil is just a madman.
Uh tesla wins final approval for german factory. I honestly would have been expecting tesla to go haywire then. Oh man, all right. The spy and the queues are at a very interesting level, so they sold off they bounced and now.
The question is: are they gon na make a higher low, or was it just a bouncing ball and we're gon na about to crater through? This is where we're about to learn a little bit more about. What's actually going on today, uh someone said mad shills in chat who who's the chill in chat the shields uh we'll kick him out easy easy peasy lemon squeezy is gamestop doing anything 116, unfortunately, down by 1.9 percent. Amc is down worse today down by 2.9. Let's see if we can get some sort of recovery in them, but with that i would assume we're going to see a recovery kind of in the overall market.
What are you going to do? Cues? Are we going to get the bounce? Are we going to get the higher low feels like an odd decision? Time? Are the queues gon na get above 338.30? Is the spy gon na get above 430 68, or are we just going to come down and test the intraday low oil? Taking a little bit of a breather oil taking a breather might be good for the market watching oil here kind of come down. I'm assuming volatility may be going down a little bit. We might see a little bit of a relief oil, so incredibly, volatile lucid, is on the move. All right amc not moving lucid's on the move, all right, all right, we're putting in a higher low. Let's see how this goes, let's see what kind of momentum we can build. It's just you can just almost feel it that we're fighting some serious headwinds. It feels like it's so easily getting its red bars and every green bar. It almost feels like every single cent is like a giant fight, crypto taken a little bit of a bearish route this morning.
What else are the uh spy put? So a lot of these puts are for two weeks out they're playing the march monthlies march 18th. Just so, everyone knows not really like something that expires today, all right, hopefully the next stop for the spy 432. Let's go. Let's go.
Let's go 432, the q's finally doing something all right. We could probably drop the keltner now lucid, ripping oil as oil is coming down, we're seeing kind of a relief in the overall markets right now. This will get interesting. If remember when, i said if this was just like uh some craziness and then they run up and gab fill it and then rip the rug expect volatility.
This is exactly why you don't want to be getting whipsawed uh if you did fortunately play this short like this quick little intraday movement from 432 down to 430, you know to get out and collect your profits right here. You saw a higher low and you saw a breakout that was a change of trend on the very short time frame. I'm just talking for more of like the tacticians here like. Let's say it was agnostic of time frame you're.
Just looking at this chart set up. That's exactly when you would have been like. Okay, you played this breakdown. You captured profits here, uh, wasn't the widest trade, not the biggest profit, but hey profits.
Profit profit is profit oil actually at some support right here, i'm curious if oil is going to break below this 11270 level we're coming back up. Let's do this all right, we're going to break 432. Things are getting spicy the classic, just v-shaped, crazy movement, we're in seeing in the market. What is the crude oil ticker fincher ticker symbol cl like crude oil cl right here, lucid ripping up four percent bbig is actually up: 1.7 percent oil oil.
Can i even nope? I was gon na try to take a little quick trade on oil, but i can't i can't i can't i can't too much volatility gold taking a little bit of a breath or two ran up to 1962 down to 1950 yeah oil. Definitely taken a breather. I mean man. This thing has just been cruising outside the keltner for sure uh, all right, we're seeing that market bounce i'm now looking at that gap-fill play folks gap-fill play, let's see if we can get it uh, thus far getting a little bit smacked at 432.50. Three all right: well now we might just be setting up for a cup and handle or a brutal three-top rejection. Uh, i'm gon na be curious. If we get a shoulder head shoulder or cup handle, let's see if we get another push to 432.50. If we do a fourth test, which would set up an inverse shoulder head shoulder, also a cup and handle, if that happens, i'd feel very, very confident of this gap fill so looking for this to play out uh watching it closely just seeing if some buyers will Step back up and push it to 430 250.
if they do, if i see it starting to bend back around, my confidence in this play would uh go through the roof. I'd like to know what chair thinks about all this chair and i are in a big fight. We haven't been talking we're giving each other the cold shoulder it's actually very uncomfortable for the both of us. Aso is the best long term long play in the market.
Right now, hey, i hope it is, and i hope you have a lot of money in it. I want you to be crazy, crazy, successful you, trade on public infidelity awesome. I like messing with shows in weeble chat uh. If only rumble updated their website.
People would flood here, anybody know rome, they are doing updates um. Obviously that's they're. It's in the background, so they're waiting uh, but they are from everything i've heard about the company yeah. In the background, they do have a big kind of like aesthetics update coming for everyone, they're just getting it to the level they want it to be loosen still going lucid, not stopping all right, we might be seeing the cup and handle forming.
I just want to know if it's going to pop above 431.63 come on, give us a little bit of some short-term confirmation of the cup and handle the head and shoulders whatever you want to call it bullish development. I just want to see a little bit more. A little tap tap tappy, so it's transparency, not a thing transparency like in what regard in the market uh. We definitely need a way higher amount of transparency.
Matt. Do you have an options course? Um? I i don't sell an options course. I have some options: videos, uh, but also the thing that's pinned to the top of chat. True trading group.
They have a full on options course, uh that a lot of people have been learning quite a bit and making quite a bit of money off of so i think that could be a good place for you to start. If you need more content than just the free videos, i've put out but definitely check out, what's pinned to the top of chat or in the description i'm talking about ttg oil coming back, let's see if come on, just give us the cup and hit us give Us don't do this, we're really just going to a triple top. What are the whales doing? The whales are still hammering the negative side, the bearish side. Look at all these puts that continue to come in the question is: are the whales wrong? Do the whales not know what they're talking about uh tiblio, calling out? Oh wheat in the pre-market, gappers, really interesting. All right swing this back around they've. They walked it up. They walked it down. They're, just playing with my emotions.
Right now, pure emotional play, hang on. Hang on hang on, hang on, hang on where's the macd, the moving average convergence divergence. What are you doing to us? What a weird weird day it goes flat. They sell it off, they run it up and then they sell it back off to the same level and then oil's popping again strange dude.
Do you sleep? No, not really i mean if oil keeps going like this, it's hard to think that, like we're gon na get the bounce, i mean the the bounce right here came when oil was actually selling off, but now oil is once again repping some strength. I guess we could watch 113.5, but this is so. This is brutal. It's a day of algos it's a day of bots like they systematically bought it up.
They systematically sold it off or not only is it a day of us being the minnows trying to go with the trend of the whales, but today it's like the weird big, robotic whales days like this are so so frustrating damn all right. The macd just turned: what are they gon na? Do oil popping again man? Oh man, oh man, oh man, brutal action fix it well, yeah the vix probably went down a bit, and now it's probably spiking once again are there updates that we're missing hang on? Let me check the news just to see: u.s commerce department's new regulations identify 91 entities that supported russian military activities. U.S commerce department targets russian oil refining sector with new stringent export controls. That was six minutes ago.
That's exactly what just happened. Six minutes ago, u.s commerce department targets russia's oil refining sector with new stringent export controls six minutes ago. Look at what exactly what happened. Ways started going right back up, fedex suspends all services in russia and belarus all right.
So this is more of exactly uh commerce department, new export controls so that sent oil higher, sent the market lower. Wow. Oh wow, is the oil just going to keep popping here? Damn crazy, this cup just has a really big handle. It might just be.
Maybe we'll have a w situation. This is just nuts. That was crazy. I mean i, you saw it live on this run-up.
I was like. Oh, they are going to give us that gap bill today and i guess they still might, but if they give us a gap fell off of this, they run it off, sell it off and then run it back up for a gap fill like come on man. I mean oil look at what they're doing here: they're running it from like 114 down to 112 back up to 113 and a half like this is just nuts crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy and you have all those people in the options market. The one thing that's just giving me a glimmer of bullishness in the market is, i still just i like those gap, fill plays, but the the trend and it getting smacked all right. I just took a short position on the spy. I took it through the futures market, but just so you know roughly at this level i'll mark it out just so, everyone knows uh. My reasoning, for it is the fact that i feel like today should be a bullish day. I am, it just seems like the market is doing the exact opposite of what.
However, my brain is wired. It like i know the gap felt all right. Well, i just want everyone to know this red circle uh through the futures market, i sold futures contracts, but it's just because right now my options contract.
Dutch Bros and Lockheed are the only ones on my watchlist that are green… I'm not in those but had a feeling…
I hear ya
A lot of red today
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