Inflation Day (Stock Market Reacts)
Dumb Money w/ Matt Kohrs
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
Foreign, my hello, hello, oh man, oh brother, oh brother, oh brother, we have quite a few things to talk about. It is inflation day. The report came out a mere 30 minutes ago. I'm talking about the cpi report, the consumer price index, and if you look at what's going on in the markets, you don't really need to see the numbers they weren't good.
The market is diving, i'm sure you have a lot of questions of what in the world does this all mean so we'll be diving into the numbers, what they mean and then i'll go into a little bit of strategy, because today this could very quickly become a Very, very red day um, it's already read in pre-market and we're going to dive into that. Once we get over, what's going on on, like the macro economic level, we'll be taking a look at some of the most recent earnings reports. We have some pretty actually cool developments there. I really want to dive into what's going on with disney a little bit of an update on twitter coca-cola and then, of course, uh in terms of the metrics before that bell goes ding-ding-ding-ding i'll, be diving into like the short interest utilization cost tomorrow.
All that stuff. For amc and jamie, but really today we need to see what's going on with the overall market, the s p, 500, the nasdaq 100 and the russell 2000 today, and i i was trying to for one everyone yesterday - that today is not going to be the day Of an individual equity yeah, you might see some relative strength in disney because it crushed it, but overall today is going to be led by the indices. I tried to set up everyone yesterday and it looks like that's how it will be playing out today. Today is one of those days that it's going to be tough for an individual equity to do well, when the overall market is in a little bit of turmoil.
So with all that, once again, we're going to be diving into the numbers, what they mean, we're going to be looking at some earnings and then we're going to dive into some specific numbers and we're going to just get everyone prepped for that bell to go. Ding ding ding ding ding in about half an hour. So with all that being said, let me switch this over and kind of show you a little bit of the bloodbath right here. Um the spy like look at this we're it's already down: 1.2 percent.
The nasdaq 100 is down 1.8. The russell's down 1.7, like i said disney, was one that was holding on um. It's actually up six percent, and that's just because i had a really good earnings and we'll get into more detail. But overall, everyone needs to know that this.
This is red and obviously it's red. We were kind of talking about this on the locals page of, like this gap fill opportunity, i'm hoping you're, making some money on this. This was um, obviously nothing's ever guaranteed, but this was a relatively favorable risk. Reward set up to think that, like no inflation's, not transitory at first, the federal reserve told us they said: hey, don't worry about it, not a problem.
All right! Next update yeah, it's transitory! Okay! Next update! Maybe we should retire. This word transitory. The final update is, we don't know what the hell we're doing. Obviously they haven't said that, but i would assume this this is. This is interesting all right. So, let's get into the specifics and then really explain like what's going on the dow futures down the s, p future's down the nasdaq future's down oil up and, of course, yields up. We are now officially over. Two percent yields are up and obviously yields up, and typically with the nasdaq they're going to move inversely usually yield, go up, inverse relationship with the nasdaq nasa goes up.
Yields go down so right. Now it's very natural to see a drop off in the nasdaq 100 and a spike in yields january, consumer inflation expected to rise by 7.2 percent the highest since 1982. This was the expectation year over year, 7.2 percent, with the most recent month coming in at 0.4. Well, it came in a little hotter than that.
Once again the expectation was 7.2, it came in at 7.5. The expectation was 0.4, it came in at 0.6, so on the month and on the year it is hot. Inflation is in a worse scenario than economists and fancy people with all those pedigrees on their wall were expecting the people who are paid to do this their job. They got it wrong.
They got it wrong, they got it wrong, they've been getting it wrong. In fact, i kind of want to show you this right here, sven kind of an interesting input and an opinion that i'd like to. I guess once again resonate with all of you echo. The entire fed board should resign.
Not only were they completely wrong, they kept misleading the public with their transitory narrative and persisted on it when the data was already showing they were wrong and still they kept injecting liquidity. Reckless. I have to agree with that. I mean it's a crazy, crazy scenario.
So what you need to know is inflation came in hot. You might be wondering okay, well inflation coming in hot. How does that lead to the sell-off that we're seeing right now think about it? This way recently, within the past two weeks, we got a report about jobs report and actually the unemployment rate report. Unemployment was low, they added a lot of new jobs.
Even today we had jobless claims. It came in at 220-ish thousand, but my point is: it came in 16 000 under expectations, so overall, if you're using employment as the metrics you're trying to pay attention to for the health of an economy and like adding jobs, you want unemployment low. The recent numbers in the jobs world has actually been pretty good now fast forward to what we're seeing is inflation's hot. So this is how the fed is looking at things, and this is exactly why the market is reacting negatively.
The fed is tasked with two things: keeping unemployment as low as possible, and price stability. Well right now, we're in this interesting debacle rock and a hard place type of a scenario where the unemployment numbers are actually pretty good. Jobs are being added, jobless. Claims are coming in load, so the job's good, but we also know that, as you can see, inflation is high. Well, the reason they were able to get to this scenario where they were helping the market by keeping interest rates low. They were injecting a lot of liquidity by buying a lot of mortgage-backed securities. They were buying bonds. They were helping the repo market, they kept interest rates pretty much zero.
They were doing all these things that were very accommodative for the overall economy, trying to help keep unemployment low during the past year and a half, and now it's one of those things where yeah a side effect is the market goes up. Bitty uppity up at the uppity upbeat upd, well right now we're kind of done with that. The economy is looking strong and the entire time. They were doing that because they were being so accommodative with their unlimited quantitative easing so much liquidity you're, seeing the devaluation of really a lot of things and you're seeing extreme inflation.
And so we have a federal reserve and not just in the u.s but kind of across the globe. They've been absurdly dovish. That's what helps the unemployment situation that we've been battling, but when you're absurdly dovish that can prompt inflation that has prompted inflation. Those are the exact numbers that we're seeing so now people are starting to say, hang on.
They have no reason to be dovish anymore at all the economy's looking good and inflation's crazy. So you got to go hawkish to fight inflation, so, with inflation coming in high now you're seeing the market drop off because everyone's like man, the federal reserve, is about to go very hawkish to fight this because there's huge side effects. If you continue into the realm of hyperinflation, you could get stagflation, it's not a good scenario. Crack open a history book, look what happened to germany around 100 years ago, a little less than that, but not a good scenario.
So everyone, that's the bet right now. The bet were like wow inflation's high the economy from a jobs perspective. Looking solid, the fed is about to really knock us with being hawkish to dive into the details of what does it mean to be hawkish? We'll put it this way in march, we know they're doing a rate hike increase of the federal rate. This is all about like big bangs, loaning money back and forth blah blah they kept it at zero.
Once again, that's more accommodative. We know we need to rise. It because that battles inflation, but it's less accommodative for really the overall market, but anyway there was a 30 percent chance that it was going to be a 0.5 increase. Now, there's a 50 chance, it's going to be a 0.5 increase on march in if you're, looking at federal swaps, there's a good chance that by july we're already up to one percent right now we're at zero and they're trying to get higher to battle. What's going on now, if you're looking at the futures market, there's they're pricing in potentially six separate six, that's this many! That's this! Many! That's! That's this! Many! That's six! That's one more than five! That's three! More than three six rate hikes by the end of this year, we're looking at potentially six rate hikes in 2022, which is a very, very hawkish outlook on how what they want to do to basically battle all of this inflation. So before, if you rewind a handful of months, we were at the point of they were still injecting money into the economy, and on top of that, in, like the rates were low, they were at zero. They were being as accommodative as they could. It was 120 billion a month with rates at zero and they had no talks about balance sheet normalization.
Now, in present day, inflation is sky high they're about to stop the tapering. In a couple weeks, we know rate hikes are about to go, and now everyone's like it sounds like we're about to get a conversation about balance sheet normalization. All this stuff is to battle inflation, but it has obviously a bearish negative impact on the equities market because it means that really the money supply and what's going on is less supportive of equities and you're, also going to see a similar reaction in the crypto market. So right here, because of all this, the 10-year treasury yield jumps above 1.98.
It was at 2 after inflation numbers come in hotter than hectic. Remember, there's going to be an inverse relationship, as yields go up, you're going to see the nasdaq get hit and because there's such a strong showing from the nasdaq players like these top tech stocks in the s p, 500 you're also going to see the s p. 500 get hit and also the russell is going to get hit, because we all know that the government cares the least about small business, crazy, crazy, crazy nasdaq futures fall as yield spike on hot inflation report. So that's! What's going on from the macro situation, you got to pay attention to this stuff, because this is one of those days where the overall headwinds and tailwinds of, what's going on on a macro economic level, is going to have a clear, measurable impact on all these individual Equities today is a day of watching the overall market to get a little bit more specific of what we should and shouldn't be paying attention to stock futures mix ahead of key consumer inflation data.
We already went over all that consumer prices in january expected to stay at 40-year highs. Yes, we are since 1982, we're in excess of that. Now we are at a four decade: high level of inflation uh. Let's get into some specifics of these companies.
Coca-Cola pepsico both be on estimates and earnings. So, yes, we had coca-cola. This morning, pepsi we had walt disney or disney. Yesterday we had uber did pretty well twitter. This is a little bit of a misprint. Twitter actually did report this morning. So, let's get in onto that coca-cola earnings, be estimates as demand for drinks away from home, tops pre pandemic levels, twitter, um kind of interesting, so coca-cola beat on its earnings per share being on its revenue, and it's up right now or it was before the cpi. I haven't checked it yet twitter missed, but there's a positive reaction, because they're doing a four billion dollar share buyback.
Let me take a quick second to explain the. I guess reasoning behind all of that, even if you miss but you're in your board meeting you're like or in the earnings, i guess report the earnings announcement you're like we're going to buy, shares back, that's typically bullish because it signals to the public hey. We know everything about our own company intimately. We think we're under price right now, so we're going to buy our own shares back because it's a solid investment.
So, typically, that's when you hear about a share buyback, usually it's meant by a bullish reaction, because the people who know everything about their own company are saying we're, undervalued, we're going to buy more so, even though they missed on earnings. This was a little bit of a positive sentiment. Disney's the interesting one, disney parks, business, roars back as company beats earnings expectation stock soars, so they very much beat so. The earnings per share was a dollar six versus 63 cents, estimated the revenue coming in at 21.8 versus 20.9, and the new disney plus subscriptions beat by almost four mil right there or yeah four mil 129.8 versus 125.75.
So across the board, disney's bounce back was actually very, very solid, and i want to talk about what this could mean for some other bounce-back plays, but for a second i just need to do it just because i'm this kind of a person, the most popular stocks Owned by congress by chamber well apple and microsoft are one and two, and then you have google, amazon and guess what disney house speaker. Nancy pelosi is more invested in disney than any other member of congress, with at least 1.5 million in stock in options owned by her husband um recently in january. She actually had some call options that crush it. They were, they expired at the end of january, but on top of that remember she still owns stock.
So it's kind of interesting - and i'm not here just to pick on nancy pelosi - i'm here to pick on all of it because, like the fact that it's a bigger bubble shows you that a lot of congress owns this and even in this craziness right now by Getting crushed the queue's getting crushed the russell getting crushed, you know what's holding disney, as in you know, what's holding while everyone else in just their generic 401ks like are getting crushed right now. Well, all these fancy people once again coming back to the fancy pedigrees on their wall and everything they loaded up on this guy and they loaded up on some other ones and they're actually in profit right now, while everything is still continuing to fall off a cliff. So just want to give you a little reminder that hey, while you're in pain right now, our elected officials are somehow still making money, um and kind of going off of disney right here and like the concept of a return to normal bounce-back type of a play. There's an interesting development that city city put out a new price target on royal caribbean. The firms like royal caribbean, the most among the cruise lines city, initiated the stock with a buy rating at 105 price target, implying a 19.3 upside from royal caribbean's closing price on wednesday. So i just wanted to call that out to you um in terms of cruise lines. Royal caribbean is like a very popular one. If you want to look at airlines, my favorites are probably southwest jet blue alaskan.
The other ones are good. I'm just like listing off my favorites. We already know that harley-davidson is crushing it that's another, very common, like leisure, bounce-back type of a play. So if you're of the mindset that we are in the final chapters of maybe this weird state of our overall economy and what people are or aren't doing, it might be a profitable move to try to be an early adopter of getting back in on these lower Prices before the overall world gets back to whatever the new normal is so i just wanted to share a couple of those, because we are seeing strong numbers in harley-davidson and disney we're seeing a trend in them all beating of what the expectations were, which is telling Me that the quote-unquote average person, the average joe the average jane, is kind of doing what they want in terms of like this leisure activity and the overall bounce back.
So that's a quick setup. We do have a couple other things to get into. Let me just close all of these pages for you right here, uh, here's, a look at krypto's reaction, uh we're seeing quite a bit of red earlier today it was green, but you can see this is the four hour chart btc taking a little bit of a Hit east taking a hit cardano taking it across the board. This is crypto, it looks like hex is the only one that's currently in the green um.
Obviously, i've been showing this to you. Spy nosedive, nasdaq, nosedive russell nosedive disney holding on. Let's see how twitter's holding on twitter, this was the buyback announcement, but it's actually still in the green. Let's take a quick look at coca-cola still holding green 1.5, so the ones that related to a positive earnings are actually kind of bucking.
The trend of the overall market, because um on, if you were to weigh it out, the fundamental development unique to the company, is obviously being weighted more than what's going on in the overall economy, just because you're not always getting these types of fundamental developments. People, pricing that in and honestly it might be one of those things that other people are seeing so much blood in the water they're going around and seeing what's still holding and because some of these strong earnings reports are still holding. I think it's somewhat reasonable. Think that money just might be a little extra money might be flowing into that. I don't want to mess around with the overall market. Today, um, let's get into some of the specifics um i was calling out hang on. Where did i have that? I believe i called this out: where did we have it? I don't know oh right here, uh so yesterday. This is where i've been updating when i'm not streaming, and i want to share my thoughts and all of that right here uh.
This was last night um spy chart idea as soon as there's some weakness. I think a gap-fill play to the downside is very viable. We'll keep you posted well, look at that. We were talking at about a gap filled to 451.92 the gap.
Now we actually have kind of a double gap: it gapped up and popped, and now we're gapping down so like almost like a weird little hopscotch thing. But anyway, if you ended up playing that yeah, technically the downside gap in a weird way filled, but not really, because now we just have another gap, you don't see this often you don't see where you have a gap up on the very next day gap down, Especially in the overall market, but right there for anyone who executed upon this, like you already made some money, you definitely already made some money. So congratulations there um if you're interested in this, if the mods could put this link in this is where i just keep everyone updated of. What's going on, especially when we're not streaming other people are sharing their ideas, their trades, their input.
This community is growing rapidly and i love the direction that it's going in a lot of like-minded people sharing some very insightful dd opinions, insights and a lot of people just answering other people's questions, which i think is super super cool um. So that's the s. P. 500 weird scenario: we gapped up gap down i once again this is so so important.
I'm telling you watch the 200-day moving average. 443. 448. It's uh, 444..
Let's just call it 444 for now it's technically a couple cents below that. I that's my main watch today. If we come down to the 200 and bounce cool i'll play, it i'll be bullish if it breaks down i'm going bearish on the overall market. I am closely watching this 200 day moving average and i believe yesterday i was bringing up the scenario in which i was like man.
Are we getting a head and shoulder scenario where we have a shoulder here? We have a very poorly drawn shoulder. This is like a five-headed scenario. You don't see those two often and then we have like another shoulder. So it might be a shoulder head shoulder and that would be confirmed upon a breakdown of the 200-day moving average, which is roughly aligned with like the neckline of the shed the head and two shoulders. So let me drop all of that just wanted to let you know all what i'm watching right here. If we do break below 444, which i think would be a rarity for it to happen today, i'm not calling for it to happen today. Of course it could, but if it does go even further, then i'm watching 430 and if that event plays out. If that comes to fruition, i would expect quite a bit of red across the entire market.
The nasdaq came up to its 200-day moving average and similar to the spy gapping down. I'm looking for support to be found around 352 and then below that we have additional support if it doesn't hold there at 340.. Um so i'll be watching these levels similar to the spy it gapped up. But now we have the gap down.
So it's like a double gap scenario, uh, clear, rarity. The russell the nasdaq had a great day. We tried to break out, it got smacked, it broke gapped up, got above a key key level, and now we have the double gap situation, just like the q's. Just like the spy kind of an interesting one worthwhile to pay attention to, but i will be watching 200 and that will be followed by 197.50.
That's what i'm watching on the russell! If you are in any way involved with amc, you're going to want to keep an eye on the russell, because if the russell continues to sell off, it will drag amc with, it aim sees the largest showing within the russell amc, had a good looking w a Higher low right now, it's down five percent in pre-market. Let's see what the day brings uh yesterday we had a nice technical breakout, but once again it is this consumer price index report. That's messing with everything. This is not really specific.
This downward movement is not specific to amc in any manner. This is an overall market type of a deal. I will be watching for support around that key level of 1660 1670. in terms of gme.
It also had a beautiful day, but, like everything else this morning, it's having a rough pre-market i'll be looking for support at 112.. Hopefully it doesn't even get there and then below that we have 105. in terms of the overall market, short interest. 25 percent.
For the s p 500 for the nasdaq, we saw a huge drop off in the short interest. Previously it was in excess of 30 40. Now we're down sub 10, very, very volatile reaction, but then the russell is still staying pretty high around 47. So the nasdaq, the short bet against the tech sector - has really dried up, but the spy holding strong at 25 and then the nasdaq or excuse me the russell 2000.
The small cap still a noteworthy value in terms of amc, short interest, still very high. 21.7 percent utilization still at a hundred percent, cost sabaro 1.5. If this stays here, i would fully expect the cost to borrow to start to rise and shares on loan currently coming in at 118 million, with an estimation of 111 million actually being actively bet against amc. In terms of gme 21.5, very, very similar to amc, also in the secondary sense of the utilization maxed out at 100, as you can see, the cost to borrow is already rising on jamie up at 3.6, shares on loan 19.3 million, with an estimation of 13.5 actively Being bet against it, that's your kind of numbers, your metrics, all that stuff break down the short interest numbers for amc, jimmy the spy, the qs and the russell, if there's other ones that you guys have questions about and you're just curious about more than happy to Dive into it with you, but just to get everyone, i guess kind of understanding of what's going on today. The sell-off is not specific to any individual equity, some of them. Yes, twitter disney coca-cola are bucking the trend, that's because of their earnings report cpi, and a very important inflationary gauge that the fed will be using to make their upcoming decisions came in way too hot, which is going to most likely signal to jerome powell and the Other members of the federal reserve that they have to be more hawkish, being more hawkish means being less accommodative. Essentially, a symptom of that is a less accommodative stance on the overall stock market when you're less accommodative, obviously things go down. Will this hold? I have no clue it could open up at 9, 30 and people could be like we don't care, let's rip higher.
It could also open and completely continue to sell off, because people are panicking they're like man, this inflation situation is not good, you don't know, i'm not a fortune teller, i'm not a financial advisor. I'm not a lawyer as all this stuff plays out i'll, be sitting right there with you, i'm just doing my best to really try to educate about the things that are prompting these types of moves, and it's also going to be important to drive home the fact That this is why you always have to stick to your plan. No matter what your plan is, you know your risk. You know your reward trade like a robot.
That is don't let your risk get so out of hand that you end up blowing up an account. This is exactly the scenarios where high volatility, instead of getting the, i guess, deer in the headlight reaction where you're like i just don't know what to do. This is why you have a plan if it's a plan in your head, if you want to write it down on a little piece of paper, whatever it is, stick to it, um the game of the markets, trading investing this is a marathon. This is not a sprint.
It's way way more about capital preservation than it is some hitting all these, like home, run trades focus on capital preservation. The wins will come, it's all about you controlling your losses to the best of your ability, so that is the rundown that i have for all of you um. I just wanted to now. Well, i know we have about five minutes and i just thought with like the insanity that we're seeing currently in pre-market. I wanted to turn it over to all of you like if there's questions about interpretation, if you have terminology questions of like short interest shares on loan utilization um, if you're curious about my internet, the guy should be here somewhere between 10 and 12. So i'm excited we're finally getting some new internet. So no more of this stupid spectrum, um uh, show us your amc shares matt. You can see it yourself on public people are all about showing it as in, like you can't like folks, there's such thing as photoshop.
You can edit a web page if you want it, you want it on your side, not someone posting a picture. If you want to see amc, my gme, my prog, my corsair sign up for public and, in fact sign up for public anyway, like it's, not payment for order flow. It's not dealing with market makers um. This is way exponentially better than weeble and robin hood.
If you're an options trader, this won't be for you. They just have stock but check out public. It's a great brokerage in the u.s. I use it.
That's where my stocks is, and on top of it as a little bit of a social media aspect, that you can see what people are in and it will also alert you of like if they're selling. So if you're curious, if i'm selling, which i'm telling you i'm not my risk - is zero um, that's where i will i'll ride it to zero. If i need to, but if for some reason you just wan na believe random people on the internet go check for yourself on public, is there a uk version of public um? I'm not the most familiar with uk based brokerages uh you're gon na have to probably do a little bit of like searching around for that one. I'm panicking buying crypto and nikki's nutsack um, so would sqq plays be a decent idea or met puts those would be if they keep coming down.
Will pal be speaking today, not to my knowledge, not to my knowledge. Can i take a look at tesla? Happily, let's see what tesla is up to getting uh, so tesla has support between 900 905 if it breaks below 900 i'd be watching 880.. What does this mean for bitcoin for bitcoin? This strengthens it in the long term, but in the short term, this is representing a flow out of risk on assets and crypto is considered to be risk on. So in the short term, i would expect crypto to get hit um, especially because this type of stuff is going to cause the dollar.
The us dollar currency index tracked by dxy, as the dollar goes up. That's typically weaker, specifically for bitcoin ethereum, but like the major crypto plays so hot inflation in the long term, like as people start to see this they're like what are you doing to the us dollar like that's insane, i'm going into crypto, but in the very short Term, it's gon na prompt, a pivot out of risk on assets and in the bell curve of risk things such as crypto, such as what media would refer to as meme stocks. That's risk on plays this type of stuff, was gon na about to really be going down and what's been going down with the fed. This prompts a pivot out of risk on assets, so short term now currently bearish. But let's see we're gon na know a lot more of the answers to these questions. When we see the overall public reacting, this is pre-market typically later volume. There's, of course, a little spike in volume today because of the announcement um, as you can see at 8 30. That's when the report came out was at 8 30..
That's right exactly where the reaction was so, let's see how things are going to get going today. Uh uv xy, uv xy is tracking the volatility of the s p. 500. It's based on the vix v.
I x, um volatility was recently over 20., currently at 13, but let's see how this thing is really going to get going. Uh crypto has never gone through a recession, slash depression, so there is no proof that it will hold up like gold um i mean it's gone through, like 15 bear markets. It's currently uh, as people would refer to it as a crypto winter, but uh to me. It's a long term play long term play all right.
We are about to get going hang on. I have the time right here for all of you on the bottom of the screen, so we're about 20 seconds out, let's see if people are saying wow, this is cheap. I want to buy or let's see if people are saying this is no bueno. You will be getting your answers momentarily.
The casino is open all right. Folks, let's see what is going on here on days like today. Yes, i always like that concept of sitting on your hands - the first 10 20 30 minutes on a particular day when we're expecting higher volatility, it's more of like a 20 30 40 minutes, um type of thing, where i'm sitting on my hands, um dwack, is currently Trading at 82, the reason i'm bringing that up is because i still have my dewac calls for next friday, and then i am still in that spy bear call spread which right now is still up money um. This is exactly why i went through the concept of pitching.
What like these covered calls are what these credit spreads are, and, on top of it, like that's, making money like that, where it's like. Obviously, we gave it out for free and all the details are posted on locals, but that play right now is actually printing money. So very, very happy with that. I got some ford calls yesterday up 7.7 percent.
Should i go ahead and lock these in with the volatility i mean, the volatility might benefit you like it's if there's higher volatility and the stock is still trending in your direction. Um we've seen these types of things before, where there's a great reaction, whether to the upside or the downside, like a very uh like a higher magnitude move, and then it's completely like just swept under the rug during normal trading hours. Just because we were down in pre-market doesn't have to mean that we're down in normal trading hours. There is a scenario in which this bounces back, i don't think it will today. I think the odds are not the best, the thing that this scenario has going for it is seasonally we're in a very bullish time, so seasonally we're bullish, but we just got a bearish inflation report, so it's gon na be one of these things of like okay, Who's gon na win out. That's a big big question: uh. What are your thoughts on meet kevin um? My thoughts on the whole meet kevin situation is that the internet is full of a bunch of that. Guy is the embodiment of success in so many different things, namely real estate, the markets and youtube he's the type of person who he did not come from like the best beginnings and now he's worth many millions of dollars.
He is someone that all of us can learn a thing or two um. He is one of the people that i watched when i first first started watching like youtube, finance and um. I i guess what i see playing out right now. I i feel the community who pays attention on youtube, especially like his morning and afternoon, streams that was free education to so many people and the fact that people are like such just dim-witted like keyboard warriors.
I just don't get it whatsoever. It blows my mind. A guy who has a proven track record of success in the stock market has now been driven to not giving out some forms of his free education, he's still making videos, but he's not doing his live streams anymore. I don't see it, people to my understanding of the situation.
He's been telling people hey over the past, like whatever year two years he's like i'm buying this dip, i'm buying this dip and people were stoked and he did it. He put his money where this mouth is on the recent development he's like. I don't like the scenario, so i'm not buying the dip. That's that's called being transparent.
That's called like you telling the world what you're about to do and then actually doing it um. I it blows my mind, especially because we just got an absurd inflation report and then people are mad that he's not buying the dip. I i just don't get. It he's been nothing but transparent and honest the entire time, and i hope he comes back.
Maybe this will just end up leading to like a particular like break for him. Like hey, i know we all need like mental health breaks here and there i, i truly truly don't understand it. I 100 have his back he's been transparent and honest and on a much much smaller scale. I've seen these types of things and it sucks.
I stand up and explain to this community. What dark pools are, but then just because they read something that, like confirmed to their bias on reddit or twitter they're, like matt, doesn't know what he's talking about. I read something that made me feel better, so he should say that dark pools are the worst thing ever folks, i talked to the experts i talked to who i needed to talk to understand, dark pools, and i shared that and then people were like it's this Scenario and like now meet kevin's in this world of, like it seems like people freak out, opposed to like caring about understanding the market and making good trades and doing smart stuff. They're like i just want to feel good, and you should tell me whatever i'm doing. Is the right move? That's not how the markets work. The markets have no place for emotion and, like i said, i experienced it on like a far smaller scale than what me kevin is like currently going and what drove him to make these decisions, and i feel for him because he is a guy. That knows about the markets. He is a guy that dives deep into earnings reports deep into these types of inflationary updates, and he shares that for free and now the internet pisses him off so much that he's like nope i'll give it for my course members.
It's it's. It is the internet, i'm not surprised, i'm not like. Oh man. I never knew the internet acting like this, but it's um it's upsetting because it was free education.
What does this mean for bitcoin? I got some four curls all right. We did that all right, so the spy bouncing a little bit. The question is: is this going to hold so the spy bouncing the q is bouncing iwm bouncing? Let's throw up amc amc got above that level once again battling it out at 1825, the q's coming back interesting, gme above 121. The question is: is this gon na hold? Let me throw disney down here just because disney had their report.
It's up five percent um. We are six minutes in thus far. Has this open relative to what we saw in pre-market been a bit stronger, yeah? Okay, you are seeing definitely some buyers step in whether it's new buyers or whether it's shorts covering i don't know, but buyers are buyers. The question here is: is you can't extrapolate the first six seven minutes of movement to the entire day? I'm not really myself, personally convinced of any bullish or bearish movement.
This early into the day, i'm not i'm just going to sit. You got to be patient and wait to see how this all plays out, because, because of the pre-market sell-off, there's still quite a bit of red. In fact, the only thing green on my chart right now is dwack and just a quick update for you with dwack. If you've been watching that, like the whole, what's it true social, i believe the beta rollout did get pushed to march.
So that's kind of the whole scenario when it fell off from like 97 to 87, currently trading at 84. um, it was just the it seems like it keeps getting pushed back another month, another month, another month, another month, spy 453 amc coming to that breakout level. If it can hold above 18 20, the lower 18s - let's say low 18s - then i'm actually watching just above 20.. I don't see any major major daily levels until the low 20s, but first we got to get above this level. We got to hold above this level. Ideally, on some nice volume, hey the spy making that bounce back coming off of 451 up to 453 a nice push thus far, let's see how it really goes, though. Let's see how it goes. Amc reddit is the worst cult.
I love amc. I can't stand the recycled garbage they spew in that room, though yeah i mean it definitely has its downsides, like with all this. It's just the yin and yang of life um. This type of like passion and involvement, is what prompted amc to go crazy in june.
It's what prompted gme to go crazy in january. This is the opposite side of that. It's just sometimes like that passion and excitement gets redirected in another way. This is the this is just life with super super good things.
Yeah. On the flip side, you have super super bad things, not to get philosophical, but this is what i've noticed of how life goes. It's when you have extreme pros, you have extreme cons, it's the yin and yang of life. That's why all we can really do is focus on us.
All we can do is focus here on the moon gang we're our community. All we have like we, you can't control someone else. You can't control another community, the only thing all of you listening all of you watching right now, all we can do is like every single day, moon gang, good vibes support each other in this group. That's all we have like we're if you're here you're focused on the moon gang.
That's that's what it is like we're saying. Okay, can we learn about the markets? What's going on with inflation? What's going on with market structure this option this future? Is this crypto, this meme stock that meme stock? That type of thing all we have is good vibes all day here in the moon gang? That's all we're really in control of. I read a thing that made me feel like i had potential huck you, north korea, susan, you never left me anyways uh brendan, has officially been here for 13 months. Did i fix my internet? No, i didn't, but it is coming uh pretty soon sometime between 10 and 12 east coast time today i am thoroughly excited, but everyone.
I think this is actually kind of a big moment. Brendan burns has been active in this community now for over a year 13 months. Everyone applause for mr burns. I think we've all gained a little bit of insight from his commentary here and there trade, chile, don't eat tulips.
Oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man, the storm d-wack, has let me down before, but i'm always going to give back my money. I just watched this guy. That thinks he's a duck at times. I don't know if i've ever thought.
I was a duck. Maybe who knows the past is a blur. What else do we have going on? All right, amc hold him on that 1825 level. Let's see man, uh, everything's, so red in pre-market, i'm gon na be stoked. How cool would this be? If we had to ball green by the end of the day, that would be bonkers all right disney, not moving much us. I see some people talking about tesla tesler, moving very much in line with the spy. How are the queues looking? The queues are also pumping. So right now things are still red, but people are currently buying the morning dip uh once again we're 10 minutes in i'm, not personally convinced of it.
Yet, let's see, let's see how things pan out, i'm so transparent. When i stand up at the cinema, everyone yells, hey you floating popcorn down in front um. We got a pullback in market hour, late, uh inflation to seven times already priced in. You know, thoughts, um, 7.9.
No, no! No expectations were at a 7-2 or 7-3 7-2 or 7-3 were expectations, and i tweeted out the specific numbers earlier all right. Let's see how this actually gets going today, remember when we were going to decorate meet kevin. Well, if you got how many of you were here when the duck raid played out with kryptos rs, that was whoa there, what kind of print was that was that a misprint or a legitimate print is anyone else, seeing these abnormal candles right there, that looked a Little bit funky um the duck rating. The the concept you guys are a dangerous group to bring to another person's stream because out of nowhere, you guys just all start spamming ducks it's.
It's not good, and i learned my lesson with kryptos rs. It was. We were just trying to ask him to see if he wanted to come on for an interview, and then all of you just blew up his chat with the duck. Emoji um lesson learned, you guys were ravenous.
Oh, i can't. I can't bring you guys anywhere, can't bring you anywhere well, amc is still kind of going up about a dollar fifty more to go just so everyone knows we're still watching the low 20s and then gme would love to see that push of 125. looks like tesla Ran into some resistance at 9.25 um, i don't know if this is a misprint on the spy. That's a very weird looking candle did the queues have something similar? Not really.
I think that might have just been a misprint. A little bit of a data mishap they'll probably fix that in a can, i check mu, happily m-u trading at 92 up four percent, so you're telling me out of a crazy day like this, some of the ones that are green, disney, mu, also known as the Ones that pelosi are in man uncanny ability for her to pick the ones that apparently can weather any extreme storm. I like it all right, uh donde, esta la biblioteca, cootery, that's so funny! I don't know if you have like mics in my apartment right now, but um there was a very, very high chance. I was about to start today's stream with uh.
What did my teacher always say? She always started our spanish class like abraham, los libros la pagina, dociento y cuatro like every day. She would just walk in and say like open your book to page like whatever - and i don't know, i say it so much that my completely 100 real girlfriend uh. She definitely gets pissed off at me about it. That's all. I really know how to say in spanish, abraham los libros cuatro, so i will survive in any spanish-speaking country as long as my communication just involves telling you to open your book to whatever page, do you have a cell phone? If so, there's always a mic? I do have a cell phone - i know i'm being bugged, maybe not by cootery but probably by apple and every other tech company or text tweet or text tweet or text tweet or text tweet. Where did ortex tweet or text or text or text or text. Gme short squeeze trading signal, a short squeeze signal was generated based on the recent price increase and the high short level in gme training signals are based on historical statistics and machine learning. Short squeeze signals in particular are rare and the duration.
The price momentum is particularly hard to estimate training signals, identify squeeze events with a high conviction, but may trigger too late or recommend a holding period. That would result in significant loss, similar situation with amc. So you might be wondering what in the world does that mean and where are the trading over here? So as you can see, yes, they fired today today, type three type two. This is the thing that we've seen in the past.
Let me just get ahead of it like right now, type two and type: three one is not stronger than the other. It's literally just a different type one's, not a better one; one's, not a quicker one; one's, not a more uh like concise one. It's literally just doing an analysis on a different type of data, so it's actually nice to see a conviction between two different types, but once again type one is not better or worse than type, two better or worse than type, three blah blah blah. It's just looking at a different set of data.
That's all it is uh, so both of these they fired, recommend holding two days triggers per year, not often um, and it looks like it's a four-star setup which they're gon na get probably from like a breakdown of the accuracy of this. Is this a guarantee? No, all it is, is it's saying hey. We saw this type of pattern in the past. We think there's a statistical edge in it repeating in real time, but once again nothing is ever ever ever guaranteed.
It's just saying hey when we see this particular chart set up when we see this particular short interest when we see this particular overall situation in the data. Historically, it's led to this. We think it might lead to it again. That's the way to interpret it.
Don't think oh it like has to all it is: is it's looking at historically how things have played out and also don't think that type 2 is any better or worse than type 3? It's just a different type. That's all. It is same thing with gme right here. Let me go over to the trading signals. Uh. It right here got a type three um, so recommended holdings. Three days the average return. If you took all the trades in the past, would have been a 37 return.
On average, if you took all of the trades that this has ever fired in the past, this particular signal, but same thing. It's just looking historically based on the fact that the price is going up high, short interest, it's saying: hey, there might be a short squeeze. That's how, like you, should be interpreting it matt. Can you please explain why we aren't dropping much? I thought we were going to get smacked all across the board.
Not gon na lie panic sold, half my sheep worth 10k and i'm pissed now um. Well. First of all, we're still at this point 20 minutes into the day. I don't know how it's gon na we we might get smacked.
Uh we've seen these days before, where it pushes in the morning and then it actually does end up selling off. So i have no concept of how this day will play out. I'm still leaning a bit more bearish, because this, like, i feel like the federal reserve and politicians, are gaslighting the public about how bad inflation is. I think legitimate inflation, which it's always a weird way to do it.
I would. It would be hard for someone to convince me that inflation's actually less than 10. I think the overall inflationary scenario from like a macroeconomic standpoint is far worse than like the numbers that were given as like just a citizen. Um is like actually reporting.
So why aren't we going down? I mean well, we are down look at all this red. Like you shouldn't just be basing it on the start of the day: 9 30 because, like yes from 9 30, it's looking good. So if you bought at 9 30, that's what you care about! But if you were in the position from yesterday! Well, it's still a sea or red, excluding whack, and that doesn't mean we can't go to green today. We just have some distance to make up.
For example, amc is down 2.8 percent jimmy's down 2.6 so like it can totally make it up like 100. But like things are still currently red inflation is matt's fault, it's all matteo's fault. What else do we have come flying? V formation takes the gold all right. We are seeing a little bit of a pumpity pump pump pump, uh twitter.
Remember they missed on earnings, they missed on revenue, but four billion dollars share buyback, so people are liking that in twitter amc it's cruising right along once again, i'm watching the low 20s as the next level. Let's just quickly see how disney is doing, they had um a good earnings report across the board, not on an intraday basis. So, for example, let me just quickly show you this: if you looked at disney and the spy you might be thinking or here, let me just throw up the cues just because it's a little bit of a cleaner chart on an intraday basis, yeah the queues. Look better but in reality the queues are down one percent, while disney's currently up 5.8 percent. So if you were in one of these from yesterday, obviously you would prefer to be in disney and not the qs, even though, since 9 30, the queues look better, like you're up more money, if you're currently in disney um. So, that's why you kind of need to look take a little bit like a half step back and understand where we are in like the time frame beyond just like. Where do we start at 9 30., unless you're, just like an active trader, you start at 9. 30, you end up four and that's all you care about.
Well, that's obviously a different scenario. Then jimmy's still cruising amc's still cruising. How is the russell looking? I wonder if we're going to keep pushing to go green dip actively being bought at least 20 minutes in amc, a nice pop right there for sure um looks like it wants to battle 19 literally just broke 19.. Hang on.
Let me switch to this. I just want to see what they're doing today on it they've borrowed 2.38 million against amc today. Interesting interesting, interesting, i wonder if those bullets, those particular bullets have already been fired or, if they're waiting on it um. All i know is that amc is about to go.
Green amc did briefly it's attempting to go green. It's down by the the green level is like a hair under 19., and then gme is not far behind so in the sea of red. It actually looks like amc green right now, gme not far behind tesla, also not far behind interesting, interesting, interesting, interesting. Let's see if this stuff's gon na hold.
Typically a red green move can act as a level of support. It could also act as a level of resistance, so i'd be, and also the fact that amc's is particularly lining up with 19. I'm curious to see if on attempt one this is going to hold. I would love love to see that test of the low 20s.
The low 20s is very, very important. That's a key key level. In fact, it's the spike of late january in 2021, so i'm very much interested in seeing how amc reacts to that. How are they able to borrow it's 100 utilization? I explained that fully in like um the video that came out, i believe it's called no more shorts watch that video and i fully explain how to interpret what utilization is.
There isn't - and i also explained how, even if it's reading 100 of how there could be more shorts, where's the next level of support of amc after 19. It's not support it's resistance and the next level of resistance is the low 20s, the low 20s. Someone just said: snowflake, how's snowflake doing this one just interests me because uh at in january we saw so many money, so much money going into march calls on snowflake. So so much money went into this particular play for march expiration and the they might be back to break even right now, because it was roughly in january they were getting it around 300, a little under 300, but man. If this thing pushes to 360, someone knew something was up because, like there was, there was millions and millions there. There were individual orders going into snowflake that were like 14 million and everyone's like wait. This is downtrending. Why are they buying it? Well, it's looking really good for them now.
What are the days to cover on amc um based on the two week, hang on. Let me drop these other ones, they're annoying um two days, but remember that's really not the best metric uh just because in a actual short squeeze event, um you're going to see an abnormal spike in volume. So it's going to be above the average, which means they could theoretically cover quicker, but then, on the flip side of it, you could argue well, there's no trading day in which it's just exclusively shorts covering. So it gives you an idea, like you have one thing that makes the numbers seem a little too small.
You have another idea that makes the numbers seem a little bit too big. So it gives you a rough estimate, but what i would argue is based on it. You just know that it's impossible for all the shorts to cover in an individual day in one trading day, 9 30 to 4. The numbers are just not there for all current shorts to cover um all right.
People are saying prague, prague, trying to break above two dollars. Prague went green, so we have a couple finally going green and the other one snow is destroying it. The other one is bbig bbig, oh bbig broke above 350.. That's a big movement for bbig.
If bbig can hold above 350, that's good um for oh, i have a gap.
Most of us apes simply donβt care about this market manipulations or injustice.. most only care about filling their pockets which is dumb because we are not trying to remove this ongoing cancer ~ hedge corruption. So this will continue to drag on as long as they can away with their criminal activities.. . While us Apes are staying tamed & quiet against the abusers. Sad.
No thanks very helpful