8. 30. The cpi report came out 8.6. They were expecting 8.3 for year over year, not a good scenario, so the spy, the q's tanking we have oil taking a bit of a breather.

The dollar rocked all the way up to 1. 4. 104. Excuse me, and then you could take a quick look at gold gold popped on the news you just this is a bearish thing.

This is a bearish thing, because, with inflation being so hot many market participants are assuming that this is going to force the federal reserve to be more hawkish. That will help battle inflation, but a side effect of being more hawkish is creating an environment. That's not so accommodative for really businesses, thus really the side effect in the market is that things go down down down down down. That's where we're at today.

So i don't know if i need to be more clear about this, but in terms of the overall market, i'm obviously bearish today and in the short term. So for the remainder of today, probably going into next week, i'm gon na stay bearish, because it's not a good scenario and when you really start to unpack the numbers and look at some of the things that are going on relative to wages. Looking at. What's going on with mortgages, looking at what's going on in the world of energy? This is why i'm telling you yes recently we saw a pop.

I kept telling you bear market rally. Bear market rally bear market rally. I do not think we've seen the 2022 low in the markets quite yet, because you got to be a little bit realistic about the overall scenario. It is not a good overall scenario: the dow down 1.24 s p down one point: four: the nasdaq down 1.7 oil popping 120 150 and yields obviously going up because now the chance of a june july and august 50, pips rate increase, is extraordinarily high.

Before you've heard of 25 points from the fed at the fomc meetings, now the next three very, very, very good chance. It's going to be a 0.5 rate increase just because that's one of the tools that the fed has it's at its disposal to fight inflation. The other thing is quantitative tightening, which is a little bit even more extreme right now, instead of doing all the buying buying buying that they did during the rona era, now they're doing selling selling selling to the tune of 47.5 billion a month and in september they're Going to double that up to 95 billion, so those are some of the numbers you need to know and understand. What's going on with qt aka quantitative tightening, that's one tool and the other one is raising interest rates and with interest rates, we're already starting to see kind of an impact on that on mortgages.

We're seeing a a drop off in mortgage demand, which means less and less people are going out to buy houses which is kind of interesting demand, is dropping. But to my understanding that particular market, the supply is already so constrained that prices are staying elevated, but there is concern about the current trend of what's going on in the world of real estate. So, let's get into some very, very quick things and then let's get into some degenerate training wall street, isn't a holding pattern ahead of key inflation report. Well, as you can see, the inflation report came out and the market is getting its teeth, kicked in consumer prices.

Last month are expected to remain highly elevated. The numbers that you need to know are this. Over the past month it came in at one percent. The expectation was 0.7.

If you're excluding food and energy it came in at 0.6, they were expecting 0.5 year-over-year were up 8.6 uh, which is a six percent year-over-year increase. They were expecting 8.3 percent energy is up 3.9 percent of the month. Food is up 1.2 percent on the month over the past year, gas is up 50 and food is up. 12 weekly earnings are down 0.7 percent.

So if i were to summarize that for you, it's fucked national average for gas prices, just one cent below five dollars per gallon, that is a new all-time record. Two stay-at-home stocks get crushed on signals of weak business uh. What is this stitch and docusign? So if you got some stitch, fix or docusign puts, congratulations to you, capital riot house panel blames trump for january 6 attempted coup um so when it rains it pours when everything is going haywire, why not throw some other things into because uh hey it's fun? Let's, like just get extreme volatility, apparently billionaire invested david einhorn sees gold rising much higher and says the fed is bluffing about its ability to tame inflation. I don't know if they're bluffing, i think, they're just saying what they need to to.

I don't know, keep their jobs, make sure that people don't full-on panic, but i find it comical um at one point: they're like don't worry about it like, oh, okay, it's transitory! Like oh, the only reason we're here is because of putin like all this shit, maybe you maybe you're just not that good at your job. I get it. You weren't handed the easiest job, but i mean you should also literally be an expert in that field, but we're being told by the fed. It's transitory, don't worry about it.

It's going to go away, we're being told by the treasury secretary that hey we're not going to a recession, everything's fine, like inflation's high, but we'll take care of it. I don't like this concept of being overly optimistic and i also don't think they should be pessimistic. Just be realistic of like okay, we see this when we see these data points. This is exactly what we do, but they keep telling us we're not even that far behind the curve.

We got this under control. Don't you worry the fuck you do? Do you just see what happened like we're getting crushed right now and then they're sitting there like yeah? No, we got it under control. Like are you fucking kidding me? It's ridiculous u.s mortgage applications are in meltdown and the threat to house prices is growing and economist says so: basically, mortgage rates are going up and the demand for new mortgages are going down. The u.s housing market is seeing its worst contraction since 2006, as mortgage applications.

Crumble, says freddie, mac economist. So once again, yes, real estate is still extremely high, but that's more because of a massive lack of supply. But right now, what we've seen roughly over the past month month and a half is a big downtrend in the desire for new mortgages, billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller. I love that name like what that that sounds like you're, a billionaire investor.

If your last name is druckenmiller hell, yeah you're, a billionaire investor, says we're six months into a bear market and it still has a way to run so we're in a bear trend. We're making lower highs, we're making lower lows, we're definitely in a bear trend. Ever since we found out that they were going to get into quantitative tightening, remember that fomc meeting on january 5th, this is the day where everything change. This is the day where voldemort tried to kill harry potter and it fucking backfired on him.

This is d-day. This is whatever you want to call it, but january 5th is when we got the meeting minutes from the december fomc meeting and they said: hey we're no longer doing quantitative, easing we're gon na. Do quantitative tightening and that's the difference between the fed, buying everything and selling everything it's very, very evident. The fed right here in march said: hey, we're gon na, do quantitative easing it ripped it ripped it ripped it ripped and then they said we're going to do quantitative, tightening and now we're selling selling selling.

Sometimes it's easy to over complicate this and then other times. You could just make it so comically easy, so comically easy to understand, fed, buys everything fed announces. It can then start selling everything and since then lower highs, lower lows. Sometimes it could be explained with something as simple as that i once again to reiterate, still think the overall market's going down.

If you look at the spy, the queues, the russell whatever you want, the overall market, i think there's more pain to endure and the argument that no we've already seen the bottom. I think it's a very, very weak argument. Is it possible? Is it possible that me in this super fashionable duck shirt is wrong? Yeah, it's possible. I mean you've seen me trading tesla yeah, once in a while.

I get things wrong like a solid 75 of the time, but i think we're in that 25 percent of the time where i might be right on this one. Obviously, i'm not a financial advisor, but even in this case, do you care because, like what have the financial advisors gotten right in the past couple years.