What's going on everyone, i hope you're having a great day, i'm matt, and i'm back at it again with another technical analysis update in this video i'll be covering the nasdaq 100, the russell 2000 and the s p. 500. So you have a better idea of what to be watching for, in the short term, make sure you stick around until the end of the video, because i'll be covering a seasonal trade. I'm about to take if you're interested in this type of content subscribe to the channel and don't forget to turn on your notifications.

So you don't miss any of the timely updates. If you're interested in supporting this channel, it would be greatly appreciated if you could hit the like button and leave a comment. The engagement helps with getting this video in front of other people, but the best thing you could do is share this video with a friend. Alright, let's get started before i dive into the technical analysis.

I want to bring your attention to two important economic announcements that will be taking place this week on monday july 13th. The federal budget will be released at 2pm on thursday july 16th. The jobless claims report will be released at 8 30 a.m. I'm not expecting a crazy market reaction to either these announcements.

I just thought it would be worthwhile to put on your radar. Let's start our technical analysis with the nasdaq 100, which is tracked by the etf qqq, it doesn't take a stock market expert to realize that this tech heavy index has been doing extremely well lately, since it's low in march, it's rallied over 54 in the last week Alone, it gained 3.34. This close marks the second week in a row that the nasdaq 100 has made a new high if you've been fortunate enough to be invested in technology-based companies, there's a good chance. You've been seeing a lot of green recently.

In fact, this recent run has been so impressive that i'm personally going to take some of my profits off the table. Yes, it could continue to run, but this type of momentum is hard to sustain. On top of that, the recent high was divergent from an rsi perspective. When you compare the high from february to the recent high you'll notice that, even though we broke out to new levels, the rsi did not make a new high.

This is considered to be bearish divergence and it commonly means there'll be a reversion in price, but it doesn't mean it has to happen right away from a weekly perspective. I would not recommend taking the long position now in reality. I wouldn't even recommend shorting this market right now, because it's not close to an area of support or resistance from a technical analysis perspective. It's difficult to call out areas of resistance, because the chart hasn't developed in this region, hopefully, as more time passes, we'll have a better idea of where the demand truly lies.

On the flip side, we do have a better idea of some key support levels. The first one would be this top trend line if the bulls can't defend this area. I would then be watching for support from last week's low at 237, which aligns with the high in february. If the bears pushed the market below that, i would then be watching for 231, which served as support for three separate weeks in terms of percentage movement.

The trend line would be a decline of roughly 4. The first support would be 10 and the second support would be 12. That's the current structure for the nasdaq 100 on the weekly time frame. Let's go to the daily time frame to get a more granular view.

As you can see, we have two separate bear flags. These do commonly break downward, but not always the market did close above this top trend line, but not by much. If this can hold. I would expect positive momentum to continue, but if the market is rejected, i would be watching for a bounce off of this middle trend line, followed by a bounce off of the previous high at 251 and depending on.

If and when this plays out. This bottom trend line could always serve as support if this bear flag is broken. My first target would be 237, but i don't think this will be happening in the near future. The first horizontal support would be a decline of just under five percent, and the second one would be around ten percent.

These are the daily time frame levels you should be watching on the qs, but now, let's switch gears to the russell 2000. This is the weekly chart for the russell 2000 and, as you could tell it's nowhere, nearly as bullish as the nasdaq 100, it has been able to rally 39 since its low in march. That's definitely a bullish move, but keep in mind that it's roughly 23 away from making a new all-time high 145 has proven to be an area of high contention since mid-may it has served as resistance and on multiple occasions last year it served as support if the Bulls can push the market above this line. I would then be watching for 153 above that would then set up 158.

This first resistance line would be a gain of just under 3. The second one would be 8 and a half percent, and the third one would be over twelve percent. On the other hand, let's take a look at what happens if the bear shows strength and push the market down. There is a lot of support in between 137 and 133.

A push below this region would set up 117, and if the bulls can't protect this line, then the previous low of 95 would be in play. Since we are on the weekly chart. These would be longer term bearish targets, but the first line would be a decline of 17 and the second one would be over 32 percent to get a better idea of what might happen in the short term. Here's the daily chart there now have been two closes below this bottom trendline.

If the bulls cannot recapture it, i would be watching for 136.. This recently served as support and was previously resistance in april. The next target would be 133, which has the similar pattern of previous resistance. Turning into support, if the bears show a lot of strength, you could then be watching for this gap fill if the bulls do recapture.

This trend line that would set up 145, which could lead to a test of this upper trend line and above that we would then be watching for 153, which was the previous high from june. These three lines of resistance would be a gain of 2.8 percent, 4.8 percent and finally, 8.5. The three regions of support would be a decline of 3.4 percent, 5.6 percent and roughly 10 overall. The russell 2000 has proven to be weaker than the nasdaq 100, but let's check out the s p 500, which is in between the two here's the weekly chart for the spy and as you can tell we're, getting very close to this trend line.

If the bulls can push the market above that and hold, that would then set up 323.. If the bears lose this fight, i would then be watching for this gap fill. If there is enough demand here that would set up a test of the all-time high at 339. The first target would be a gain of 1.8 percent.

The gap fill would be a gain of 4.6 and the all-time high is 6.7 away, but if the market is rejected at this trend line that would set up the key psychological level of 300. If the market continues to fall from here, i would then be watching for 276.. There is also proven support at 271.. This first line of support would be a decline of 5.6, the second one would be 13 and the third one would be 14 and a half percent to know what to look for in the short term, here's the daily chart for the spy.

This top trend line is the same one we saw on the weekly chart, but now we can better understand that the market has been consolidating in this primary wedge. Structure periods of consolidation are followed by periods of expansion. Once we get out of this wedge, i'm expecting a large move. If we break upward the next resistance would be at 323 and above that would be a test of the all-time highs from february.

If the market is rejected at the upper edge of this wedge, there is support at 310. below that there is a lot of demand between 308 and 306.. If this wedge structure is cracked and the market breaks downward, the first support would be 298.. For those of you keeping track, this first bullish target would be a gain of just under one point: eight percent.

The bears will be looking for a decline just over three percent and just under six percent. There is a slightly different story developing in the s p. 500 futures market - it has a similar primary wedge structure, but there's no second wedge above this top line. The bulls would be looking for 3227, but if the market is smacked down here, that would set up 3080, which would align with this bottom trend line.

If the bottom trendline and the support is given up, the bears would be looking for 2983, then 2923. This is very similar to the s p. 500 etf spy. I just wanted to point out the subtle differences, as always for all three of these indices.

Don't forget to lose track of the vix. Typically, as volatility increases, the overall market will decrease, but if volatility dies out, there's a good chance that the overall markets will continue their journey upwards. Overall. These are the main areas of support and resistance.

I will be watching in the markets this upcoming week in the short term. I am bullish and that's because of a seasonal pattern. I will now show you how you could potentially profit off of the video on the top of the screen now and in the description below fully describe all details of this training strategy to quickly summarize it there's a seasonal advantage to buying into the s p 500. On the eighth trading day of july, for example, in the year 2019, the eighth trading day of july was on the 11th.

This strategy took a long position when the market opened at 2978.75, then because the close was profitable, an exit was triggered at the next open. At 2985.75, this gain of seven points on the futures market was a profit of 350 last year was an obvious success, but here are the results for the past two decades, since it trades once per year, there was a total of 20 trades. 18 were profitable. Two were not so: the accuracy was ninety percent, the gross profit was just over eleven thousand dollars and the gross loss was 112..

This means the profit factor was 101.22, in other words, for every dollar lost over a hundred was gained. This total net profit is based on a trading lot size of one futures contract. You could obviously choose to scale these results up by using more contracts, or you could scale them down by using micro contracts. The futures market does have different trading hours than the normal us market.

Because of that i thought it would be important to show you how the exact same strategy performs on the spy. As you can see, the strategy took a long position on july 11th of last year, similar to the futures market. It exited after a profitable close when applied to this market. The accuracy is still 90 when you consider the gross profit and the gross loss.

The profit factor is 3.57. The total net profit is based on a lot size of 100 shares, which would also be equivalent to one option contract for those of you interested in the robustness of this strategy across various markets. Here are the results of the nasdaq 100 futures contract, even though the profit factor was better on the s. P.

500. The accuracy was increased in this market. Additionally, here are the results for the same strategy when applied to the russell 2000 futures market. As you can see, the results are very similar to the spy etf.

Personally, i will be looking to take advantage of this seasonal pattern when the s p 500 futures market opens on the evening of july 12th. It's not too often that traders call out their trades before they happen. I will happily keep you updated to how it plays out if you enjoyed the video. Let me know by hitting the like button, if you enjoyed this type of content subscribe to the channel and don't forget to turn on your notifications thanks for watching and as always best of luck in the markets.

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