On an elevator on its way up to the hotel room of my fianc. but I never made it there CU she I'm tearing through my life like a tornado coming on hotter than a big potato. she spin me around and n come n yo what's up? Whoa! hair is not perfect this morning. well now it is.

Um yeah I'm sitting down and I'm not afraid to hide it from any of you I know many of you come in here and you expect me to be standing because we've all talked about how unhealthy it is to sit for so many hours in the day. but I'm going to be frank with you I'm going to be not only Frank with you, but I'm going to be Matt with you. Um, it overdid it overdid it overdid it overdid it I do not have the skeletal structure or the running mechanics to run a far distance I wanted to fix that in my life so I've been trying to Pivot from being a heel to tow Runner and that's what I was and apparently that's all wrong and I want to be now toe to heal like you're almost like running forward kind of looking like the Grinch uh almost as if the Grinch and a gazelle were about to have a kid. Well yesterday I was I was feeling it and I was like you know what? Matt this is going to be the day that you push another half mile.

That's how I've been running I started off at a 5k 3.1 miles and I just been increasing it so 3.1 to 3.5 to four to 4.5 to 5 to 5.5 So yesterday I was scheduled to run 5.5 miles and it was working I was listening to this book the greatest tradeit of all time about a guy a hedge fun dude named JP who made2 billion off the housing market crash. So I make it to about the the three mile Mark the 5K Mark and I'm I'm feeling good I'm feeling good I'm feeling good I'm feeling good. um and then around four miles I was like uhoh are my calves feeling strained? What's going on with my left foot? Like something feel was feeling a little bit off and then by the time I got to like 4.25 miles it was straight up pain. It felt like particularly in my left foot, but really in both feet it felt like someone was taking a little mini knife every time I hit the treadmill and just like was stabbing my foot.

So whenever you're presented with an opportunity like that, the smart people would say well hang on if I stop now. Granted I didn't hit my goal but I'll be able to recover more quickly so I could return back to my exercise regimen. That's what a smart person would do. but you're watching the Matt Cor show so you're not talking to a smart person.

you're talking to a very very stubborn person. So there I am at 4.25 miles I've run about 17 Laps on the track roughly I'm on a treadmill but that's what it was and I had to run 22. Uh so I had about five to go and I just thought to myself I was like dude Mama Qu didn't raise no all I could think I was like you could stop, you're in severe Agony this isn't just a tiredness thing my cardio was actually doing looking pretty good. Um, it was particularly like actually physical pain and I was like yeah I know like if you push it you're going to have problems tonight.

you're going to have problems tomorrow. but at least you're not going to be a so folks here I am I Can safely state to all of you that I ran the 5.5 Uh, but now I can't walk I would say there's about a 5% chance I broke my left foot low like I I actually don't think I broke it but if I showed it to you right now I'm icing it at this point. it's a little like black and blue swollen Jelly Bean like my entire ankle. Actually, if there's any physical therapists in here, it would be awesome if you could tell me uh, the inside of my left foot going up to like the little nub on your ankle that region if I put any weight on it at all, it screams in pain.

It's not if I'm just sitting there laying there like if I put no weight on it, it doesn't hurt at all I don't feel it. which is telling me I probably didn't break it. Um, but if there's an ounce of weight on it, the inside of my left foot up until that little ankle thing. uh, it's just o Dude, it is a it's a bad one, it's it's a bad one.

Um, massage therapist here. you are probably tearing muscle away from your bone or the muscle ripped the bone away. nice, nice, nice, Nice. Uh, that that's what I was setting out to do.

So hopefully the recovery period is like a handful of hours because I have things to do. Uh I Just found out that they are trying to increase my rent in my apartment by $2,000 which is not cool. So I need to find a new apartment within like 3 days. So uh, actually right after this I'm going to be walking around Manhattan like a chicken with my head cut off to find a new apartment.

So I don't go pour living here in the Iron Jungle. So folks, when it rains, it pours. When it rains, it pours. But that's what makes life exciting.

Um, something to do? Something to do? Uh, I'll say it. Oh brother oh brother oh brother. you know I never had these kind of issues when um I wasn't doing sober. October You could quantifiably say that I've only been running into these problems now that I've been sober.

I would actually argue that being sober has been one of the worst decisions of my entire life. Um, one of the worst decisions in my entire life. It it's been silly. Um, so excited for that to end.

My life was a lot more simple, a lot more put together, a lot easier to manage. Uh, when I was not sober. but now that I am sober, my rents increased I severely sprained or hurt or damaged my ankle running. um I had a really bad trade there in early October everything is arguably downhill now that I've been so so.

um I wouldn't wish sobriety upon my like worst enemy I Really, really wouldn't So anyway, that's what's going on in my life. TGIF Happy Friday Uh, we're starting a little bit early because the Pce the personal Consumption expenditure report is coming out in a mere two minutes now. I Do want to give you some facts and figures because uh, I Noticed that some of you commented on the video from last night and I appreciate that those people who you're in here in stream I recognize your name and you commented on the video upload that came out at 7:15 p.m. ET last night I appreciate you I saw your comments and you are a true goony through and through now.

I'm seeing a lot of names in here of people who didn't comment, so there's no proof that you watch the video. And obviously I'm not having a good day. so I don't want to re overreact, but I might be giving out some Dem merits I I might be giving out some demerits. So anyway, I don't want to overreact obviously.

So because of that, I'm still going to give you some important information on how the market has in the past reacted to the Pce report. So out of the last 10 Pce reports six of them were Gap UPS from yesterday's close to where we opened the day of the Pce, so four were gap down so not much of an edge there. eight out of 10 were green days. but what's interesting is those two red days we actually the most recent two which might be telling us that oh, maybe something else is going on with inflation.

Uh, and in terms of like other patterns, I try to find seven out of the 10 of the last Pce reports from the day before to the day of were switches as in if it was a Green Day The next day was a red day. If it was a red day, the next day was a green day. So seven were switches as and then three were consistent. so green led to green red LED to Red So yesterday was a red day and then given the8 out of 10 chance of it being a Green Day and the six out of four being a gap up I would say that the Bulls have a slight Edge And then also if you consider the seasonality of today today, very very very much does favor the Bulls from a seasonality standpoint, but we'll be covering that after We actually get the Pce report.

the Pce report. Just so you know, year-over Year we're looking at 3.7 and month over month we're looking at. 3 and should be coming out in a few seconds. Let's get this rocking.

Let's get this rocking. As we're waiting for this to come out, the Spy is currently trading at 41390 41390. What are your best guesses? Well, it just came out Now you're not allowed to guess and CNBC is behind. Come on, give us our boy.

Rick Uh, so we're waiting for Rick to come on. The initial reaction was 414 and it just dropped. it. Dropped about 4 cents.

50 cents. Uh, so so maybe coming in a little hot. All right, welcome back to Squawkbox, Everybody here we go Friday morning and we are just about. from the opening bell, you can see the Dow futures down by about 35 points right now.

S&P futures up by 10 and a half. the NASDAQ indicated up by 91. We had seen some better numbers when we started two and a half hours ago down been up by about points. profit mostly as some data that's hitting right now Steve Leeman is standing.

Where's our like I said Can my day get worse. Can my life get worse? Income: 0.3% Becky that's a Miss on the 04 that was expected Uh, expenditures? Wow. big jump there 07. Uh, 0.7% That's um, uh, above the expectation of 05 on the important price indices headline at 04 um and X food and energy at 03.

So that is right in line. That's the one. the core that people are interested in year-over-year The uh headline does uh, tick down. it looks like 1/10th to 3.4% and the core, uh, just 3.7 So that is exactly in line.

really inline. uh. numbers. He just doesn't have the same whether or not this number am I the crazy expectations because of the data yesterday, or the positive core Pce data in the Cor he just doesn't have that.

That was not the case. smart dude. no hit on hisroom. Analis the personal guess right, fell to 3.4% well below the average of 5% 5.2% is the a bar bur in his life? never people are F the oint.

he just doesn't give us those like those old. That's a smart choice or not. I Guess that's up to the folks that are doing it. Um, prices for goods were up 0.2% services a strong up 0.5% and one of the things we'll be doing as the morning goes by is calculating that super core number.

He bul his viewers biggest problem Very very well contained 0.14% But I don't know what it is we have to calculate Becky Let me let me just run through like a broad overview of this: if you have are spending down4 so lost about 55 about 25 at Max up about either of re being forced to inial reaction down, secondary reaction up still plus orus 50 cents right? And just to make it more confusing, there's a third possibility which is that both things are true for different cohorts of people right? There could be a lot of stress. For example, at the low inome, Trend you could have folks who are uh on the upper income uh part that are that are feeling comfortable with what they're making um, the job security numbers we've seen Becky Um, for example, in our CNBC All America economic survey have been pretty strong. People feel pretty good about their jobs and their job prospects among seven. Financial Pardon me Areas of stress that we pulled about job security was the least stressful or the other way people were the most comfortable about it.

In that context, you might be spending more of your income more of your savings in that you to get your vot in 9:30 counts that people. So it could be that people feel like we've I've got the money for the rainy day and therefore I'm okay in this month spending a little bit more of my income that is not to diminish the stress part of that explanation That you put out there which is indeed, people could be stretching to make things work. You still have relatively High inflation. Not only High inflation but you have a relatively you you know, high price level.

People are not quite used to that price level yet. Although one of the things just to contradict myself very quickly here, one of the reasons that was put forward consum out spending prices for some things may have come down to it. some held back on yeah, although gas prices are up. other things too.

All right Steve Stay with us. Let's widen out this conversation for more on this. We want to bring in: Betsy Stevenson she's a university of Mich e profess J an Tony who is Economist at the Heritage Foundation an economist at the Heritage Foundation more like a Russian spy you know I Want to start by that. The survey of consumer finances showed that net worth was up 35% R that's a whopping increase I Think it's been great that we hav seen households really dipping in to that, uh, giant increase in net worth to spend.

but it's not surprising that you're going to see savings level off because there's been a lot of savings accumulated. Um, and you know one of the things people want to use their savings for is to be able to strong even if their income dips down. The question will be, you know, does you know at some point? where does that all level off? Uh, but the labor market is incredibly strong. It gives people a lot of confidence.

uh, that they're not going to get laid off, that their income's going to keep coming. um, and that there are other opportunities out there the horizon or new job opportunity they might take. EJ What do you think? Yeah, EJ Well, respectfully. I Think we need to keep in mind that the net wealth uh, net household wealth number from the New York fed is nominal and it's not inflation adjusted.

Once you do adjust it for inflation, you find that almost all of the gains we have had over the last two and a half three years have simply been inflation. It's not an increase in real value. Furthermore, Lally looks like the vain that we, just if you again adjust for inflation, you find that we are down about $1.6 trillion today compared to the first quarter of 2021. So I think it's pretty clear that what's happening is consumers are increasingly steings and go into debt.

We have over a trillion dollars of credit card debt in this country, despite the fact focusing on this make me and if we go into the details of those monthly BLS Job reports people taking second or even third jobs in order again to make ends meet. Hey Betsy I Will I will say the balances that people are carrying on their credit cards think cards that a little you wonder when pay the minimum on that. It's the pure evil in his bones that moisturizes his eyes AB Again, you know what we saw was a coming hon um and now it's starting to go back up. I Think the question will be where's the normal number look like Matt comps to 20 the first quarter 2021.

That's a funny month and quarter pick because we knew going 2021 households had accumulated nearly $3 trillion do in excess savings U Of course we expect that to dissipate we might expect. Why did she say that there was excess savings like it was bad she like. So the fact that halfway down or two third of the way down is not a big shock or or surprise to me. Guess you guys are picking that number because that happens to be when Biden took over is that the context that I didn't catch the first time around? Oh I Thought it was just picking up from a high point.

If you want to pick a number and say hey, how much has savings gone down you would pick from a a point where we had the most uh, excess savings you know, sort of we've had and and that's misleading. Let's compare to 2019 which is uh I'm just doing it not no politics here. Let's just think about pre pandemic trying to get into a little bit of a political SW going to happen I Look the thing that I will just keep saying on the spending is we see spending happening and we see new business formation happening. Um, and so as households are continuing to feel confident enough to spend and to start new businesses I think that they're going to just keep pushing through this.

Um, and we do see that wages are adjusting for inflation I Know there was a period of time when they weren't keeping up, but they are starting to keep up now. and the fact that we could have a blockbuster GDP number like yesterday and see our inflation numbers continue to come down I mean on that, we might want to pause and uh, give President Biden some credit for an economic Miracle She like bullied her into saying something positive yeah I Don't want to jump in on the Miracle idea I I do want to. What I did want to underscore Is this notion of what uh EJ was saying? Yes there. there's definitely stress out there Dracula But people do continue to spend and it's like watch what they do, not what they say in the sense that um, if people were really feeling that stress and it was widespread then I don't think you would see the kind of spending and and spending on what looks to be discretionary items as well.

There's another aspect here which I'm I'm going to try to look up in just a second. There has been a large interest in comp payment out to the population. So there's a population right now that not only is getting um uh uh, decent wages in terms of uh, where their wages previously were when inflation was high and bets's right, you have had some catch up between wages giving a little bit of the gains back now also getting an interest income payment. So I'm thinking Becky that um uh, it's going to be tough to find.

We dropped space onu cents above right where we were so very wh to the Downs whip. To the upside, pretty much did a great job to try and figure it out. Where do you all think this is headed next? Steve Just came out with his assessment for this: Vamp going What do you think happens next with the economy? Let's say over the next six months I Think the economy starts to slow, but I don't necessarily. I I Don't think it tips into recession, the labor Market's going to have to slow down.

but I think we're starting. See what um, you know chair pal called normalization. You know people have switched jobs, but they're in jobs that they're much more comfortable with. Job satisfaction is up.

Uh, we can see I'm not satisfied with really agree with Steve watch what people do, not. What they say and what they're doing is indicating that they're quite comfortable with their financial situation by their spending patterns. And I think that's what's giving us the resiliency that we're going to continue to have. E Mark giving up a little bit I Know you need to be addressed.

maybe going the other way talking dipping I Don't know Does Miss Vampire qualify like Tur water? He's wear a threepiece suit with a gold tie with a go that hairline pierc I Don't think so. If you look at yesterday's uh GDP report that pretty clear the fact that businesses stopped up on inventories. Yes, that boosted the investment numbers, but they largely did that because they are going to continue want to get invited. It is not increasing fixed investment which is basically flat.

The last. A vampire is where the maches where get the factories, you get theity grow commun. GDP We are not seeing that as far as the fact that consumers are still spend. yes, that's true Who among consumers are still spending, it is not by any means an even distribution is very much among the upper income earners because they are the ones who still have Pandemic era savings.

The bottom 20% have not only exhausted Pic era savings, but most of the before The Pic as the stock market right now is largely being held up by Magnic. S You're seeing a similar effect when it comes to these income numbers. As far as where do we go from here, look, the treasury is sucking all the air out of the room. It is difficult to over how much they are cring out the loanable funds.

Market We have borrowed over 00 billion just so far this month. That's more than twice what we borrowed the entire month of October 2022. Forget a $2 trillion deficit. We are on track for a much much larger deficit by the end of this fiscal year.

And if you look at the trajectory of spending of borrowing and you compare that to GDP and you look at uh, history as a reference, there is very good reason to believe that the 10e is going to to 8% by the time this fiscal year is over. Hey, Steve I Can I Can agree with your idea that the two scenarios people are spending because they have to dig into their savings to pay for things they couldn't afford otherwise or this idea that people and they're doing it because they have job security. I Concur with your assessment that it could very well be both of those. But what you hear from EJ and what you hear from Betsy are two very different stories.

I Think it's a lot harder to concur with both them. What do you say when looking at the F know? Yesterday we found out there were a lot of women in here who like just don't state that they watch the show. If any of the women in here, let's let's track that shirt down. Better channel is there than CNBC Both of these on television here, and and myself get more in the middle here.

Try make all um I I Will come back and say the number that I was looking at be Becky the um def personal interest income 149 billion up year compared to I need more focus on these on Reon I think EJ is right I don't know the data he's looking at I suspect he right idea thousand of wealthier people do have more savings on this I Will say we have seen some pretty decent wage gains when it comes to the middle and working class. That has been something that has helped quite a bit. and I don't disagree with him at all about theity and the terrible situation on the fiscal side here. um I think the Biden Administration has been remiss in not addressing that with well I guess now they have a Congress to work with.

uh in order to try to address that. but I think Betsy's also right is that I don't think there's a reason to think the consumer quite gives it up here. Um I have been following and you know Becky forecast quarter after quarter they don't come true and so I think that there's a minus 1% number for the fourth quarter, not a minus a 1% number number or lower for the fourth quarter they it might be around Trend Honestly, I think we all got a little bit off track on that one. They probably made some good points, but between the vampire between, uh, clearly high like a that's a plus 10 defense rating shirt, no one is going to be attacking her on her flanks like it's just too much defense.

So I think we all it. It's not my fault, it's not your fault I think we all got a little bit, you know, just confused. We all got a little bit just uh I guess interested in probably the things we shouldn't have been interested in on that particular one. but that's what happens when mainstream media mainstream Financial media brings a vampire on at 8:46 in the morning.

So um, I'm going to give us a pass on that one. But anyway, for those of you tuning in right now, the reason we started early is because right here at 8:30 in the morning, an hour before the market opened, we got the Pce report. the personal consumption expenditure pretty pretty much in line month over month, year-over-year What was a little bit interesting was income was down. 3 the expectation was4 while spending was higher.

7 when the expectation was 0.5 That is a brutal combo. income less but spending more and that probably also if we really think about it, backs up this whole thing of what in the world is going on with credit cards and why is the debt above a trillion? I mean just the other day, uh, what was 100 30 billion in credit card fees? Which is absolutely ridiculous actually I need to write that down because we should probably do a whole video on it. Uh, credit card bills? All right. we got that written down.

but anyway. Market's initial reaction down, then it popped, then it went down. Now it's popping a little bit, but the midline is right here at 414 on the spy. uh, it's at 41427.

So up a quarter right now? Will it hold? I don't know. Will it not hold? I don't know. your guess is as good as mine. but we I don't know.

Maybe we could figure it out a little bit. So let's get to it. Let's get to the old MK show before we hop into it. First of all, shout out to today's stream sponsor: Apex Uh, so the way I do that simulated prop trading Where if you do well, you can actually get money.

Uh, they're doing a 90% off deal right now to for celebrate $50 million worth of payouts to people who did well in this trading. So if you want to do some degenerate prop trading, the way I do it if that's your thing. Um, they don't really ever run deals that are ever better than 90% off. So this is the time to do it.

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do all that good stuff I Don't know. Do whatever you want, you have your own autonomy and that's the future. Futes rise Amazon shares pop after earning. So yesterday after the market close, we heard from Amazon we heard from Intel.

This morning we heard from Exxon and the day before that we ended up hearing from Meta So kind of a a review of the big Tech earnings. and then we could get a little bit into energy. But first of all, the thing that's now causing the market to go is the fact that we were in line the PC month over month, the Pce year-over-year in line with expectations on both. So the thing that people seem to be reacting to is the income and the spending.

Once again, the income slightly less than expected, the spending slightly more than expected yesterday. So there's a series of major macroeconomic events. Yesterday we got the GDP coming in higher than expected as in the overall US economy growing more than expected. came in at 4.9 they were expecting 4.7 For this morning we got the Pce report coming in at expectation and now the market slightly in the green.

But obviously we're going to have to wait about 40 minutes until the Market opens to see how this all goes. Now, why does this matter? Well, it matters because in less than a week I'm talking Wednesday of next week Wednesday November 1st the next Wednesday In our lives, we have the Fomc meeting the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This is where voting members of the FED get to decide what we're doing. With the FED fund rate, we are currently sitting at 5.25% There is a 99.5% chance Almost 100% chance, a 99.5% chance that we remain at 5.25% so not going up, not going down going sideways.

Now if this is, uh, one of your first times watching the show, or if maybe you just need a quick recap of monetary policy, you might be thinking to yourself, hey brother, I Do not give a hoot about the FED fund rate. Why should I care about this? Well, on the surface level, the FED fund rate is not something you're probably paying attention to on a daily basis, but it does impact your daily life. The FED fund rate is kind of what sets the tone for credit card interest payments, student loan, Federal Student loan, interest payments. Um, what's going on with housing Like real estate, mortgages? Those interest payments.

Uh, so basically any major interest bearing product, it's going to be impacted by this. So the FED fund rate. Does it have a direct impact on your life? No, but it has an indirect because it has the trickle down effect of influencing all those other things. autol loan payments, mortgage payments, student loan payments.

all that stuff is going to be impacted by this. So the higher it goes, interest rates go up. and that's exactly why right now, we're in excess of a TW decade high on mortgage payments. Uh, we're cruising above 8% now.

and the reason those rates are going up so much is because the FED fund rate is going up. So just want to illustrate the importance of it to you. Now we've known for a while that the November meeting will most likely remain will result in an unchange fed fund rate, but people are starting to look at the December meeting. Once again.

this is December 13th. There's a 79% chance we stay at 5.25 there's a 19% chance that we actually get up another 25 bips, which is the minimum increase they work at minimum in 25, uh, .25 25 bip increments and then there's a 2% chance that we drop. Um, probably not going to happen that it's going to be baked in a little bit just because there's a lot to go down between now and then, such as the upcoming F meeting next week on Friday It's the first Friday of a new month, so we get the unemployment report Us: We're going to have CPI reports. Pce reports retail sales.

There's going to be a lot of reports between the November meeting and the December meeting, so they're giving like low likelihood chances to kind of like just craziness happening and who knows it might happen. Now with all this I Also want to remind you that there is an interesting thing going on. Fin twit for those of you who participate in that cesspool that there's this idea that all of a sudden If the Fed starts cutting the FED fund rate, we're at 5.25 There is a 20% chance that we go up to 5.5 by the end of the year. There's this idea that if the FED starts cutting rates that magically the market is going to rip.

uh, history does not tell us that whatsoever. I think I have the numbers somewhere here. uh and I think this is actually really important to go over. Where did I write this down? Uh, where are you I'll find you I'll find oh I should I should be more organized with my notes, but organization is just not my skill set if I'm being honest, if I'm being honest and Frank with all of you.

That's now the third time on this particular stream that I've said being frank which is such like just an old man way of saying being honest like who says that anymore? If I'm being frank with you, we got to let you down. We got to let you go. don't want to let you down, but we got to let you go the business. It's not just doing as well Dude I Cannot find this well at some point in one of my trading notebooks.

Dude, this is this is getting to the point of being an embarrassment I Really can't find it? Um well I guess the world may never know, is it? Oh, is it in this book Dude? sorry I have like eight different trading books right by me. Did I save it? Nope. Well I'm just going to assume that the answer can never be found again, so we should probably call it a show. Uh I don't have the exact numbers memorized, but what? I can tell you and my memory is faltering because I'm now the old old age of 29 so my brain ain't as elastic as it used to be.

But the sentiment of the numbers is if you go all the way back to the 1960s and you fast forward till now and every time the FED has jacked up the FED fund rate kept it and then started to cut it from the moment they started to do the cut until like if you look at that time period, every single occurrence from the 1960s up till now has led to a double digigit selloff in the market to the bottom. Every single one from the moment the FED said hey, we're going to start cutting rates, the median dip in the market was in the realm of 40% and you might be thinking okay, like well, why is that Because a lot of the times when the FED starts cutting interest rates, the market gets a little spooked because they think whoa, if they're cutting interest rates, that must mean that they have information that things are worse than they're telling us. So the market gets very very spooky. So every single occurrence of them going through a full rate cycle of jacking it up sideways and then cut if you look at the start of the cut and Mark that with the actual Market the S&P 500 the minimum drop was in excess of 20% The maximum drop was just below 60% with the average one uh out of like the five or six occurrences that happened uh in the realm of like the low 40s.

So I just want to bring that to your attention that when you hear that the FED is going to start cutting rates, that does not mean you YOLO into every bullish position that you can find, eventually it'll lead to that situation. But I'm just saying don't do it The day you you hear that they're going to start cutting interest rates, that might be the day you YOLO into bonds or something like that. but in terms of equities, that is just not the time to do it all right, bringing it back to some shorter time frame stuff. So this week we are continuing in earning season.

it will be continuing into next week. I'll update everyone in the newsletter of the things to pay attention to. Last week we heard from Tesla Miss We heard from Netflix they beat. This week we heard from Microsoft they beat Google they miss Snapchat Visa Meta Beat but then they week guidance and then that brings us to what went down last night: Amazon and Intel As of right now, they are both Green in pre-market trading Amazon's profit margin nears record after CEO Andy Jass's dramatic cost cutting efforts.

So Amazon amzn looking pretty good. Uh, it was almost a full beat across the board. The only thing that was a little bit weak was net sales from their Cloud business AWS But other than that they beat on their overall EPS They beat on their overall Revenue So Amazon a clear beat Intel stock Rises on earnings beat and strong Revenue Got in so Amazon's was pretty much a beat with a little bit of some issues. Intel Across the board was just a beat A beat A beat.

The EPS was 41 versus 22 the revenue 14.16 billion versus 13.5 across the board Intel ticker symbol Inc did beat. Now does that mean that Intel and Amazon were hold their gains today I Don't know your guess is as good as mine, but I can definitively tell you that. um, looking back in the previous fiscal quarter, they did well. Now does that have much much impact on where we're going in the future? No, not really.

because don't forget and this has been like almost. The message of the week is the stock market is a future betting mechanism. as in, where are things going in the future? and let's see if we could accurately price that Now it doesn't really care too much about what's occurred in the past. Now for some of the earnings this morning, we're hearing from some of the Big Oil plays Exxon post 9.1 Bil third quarter profit down from the record year ago net up from the prior quarter.

So Exxon ticker symbol XOM that's out this morning and then obviously I just want to once again remind you that the upcoming week the end of October the start of November we have the unemployment report on Friday We have the Fomc meeting on Wednesday and then throughout the whole week we still are in earning season. Earning season is going to be going on for about another two weeks for the major names. All right, don't forget. uh in the description of the video Maor Locals.com I Just want to let you know.

Yeah, all right, we kind of got through all the major macroeconomic events for the day. We still have earnings so all the ones came out. There's never postmarket Friday ones just so you know on Friday We just get them in the morning so no more earnings for this week, but it will be continuing next week. I'll update you in the newsletter What? I Want to show you here is the seasonality I I Referred to this a little bit ago of why I was trying to explain how I thought like if anyone had an edge today I thought it was slightly the Bulls so the seasonality is strong and then also just looking at the history of the most recent 10 Pce report days I would argue that a slight Edge to the Bulls but nothing that I would be yoloing my entire account on I will update you on this after the market closes today within the newsletter.

Uh, the option strategy. So last week it was batting a th. it went 10 out of 10 10 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 10 out of 10. this week it is 8 out of eight.

So today is the last day of this week obviously if you believe in the Gregorian calendar, but if today's zero DTE is hit, we are on a twow week hit. Uh, heater a 20 win streak. Um, so hopefully it happens. I'm a little bit nervous because if a day messes up, it tends to be a Friday So it's it's It's going to be a little bit hectic today.

Um, today might be the day that it goes a little bit bust but I don't know. an 18 trade win streak is is something that I'll I'll be happy with. but I would just love to be able to say it went two weeks like just absolutely crushing it. So anyway, Macers Locals.com the newsletter is free so make sure you sign up for that.

US Military attacks two Syrian facilities it says linked to Iran and they went through painstaking d detail to say that this is not uh I guess like a continuation of what we're seeing in the Middle East uh, the US doing the classic Us type of stuff. US Forces conducted strikes on two facilities in eastern Syria it believes were used be by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp and affiliate groups in response to attacks on American troops in the region. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Pres the president of the US ordered the Pr Precision selfdefense so they're like no, no, no, this is self-defense It is nothing to do with escalating the conflict in the region. Strikes following the attacks since October 17th that resulted in the death of one US contractor and an injured 21 American Personnel Uh, Austin Warned Iran and its proxies not to threaten US forces Quote Unquote: These narrowly tailored strikes in self-defense were intended solely to protect and defend us.

Personnel in Iraq and Syria If attacks by Iran's proxies against US forces continue, we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people. Austin Stressed that he viewed the US strikes as quote unquote, separate and distinct from the Israel Hamas War but the development underscores how the conflict could quickly escalate into a broader conf. flager. Uh, the US is continuing to send forces to the Middle East and Thursday's attack are believed to be the first offensive action by the US and Sasa's October 7th incursion into Israel.

So they're saying no, no, no, no, no. Like just defense. We would have done this without Israel Oras. so please don't think that it's one in the same.

but I think everyone that has like at least a neuron firing in their brain knows that. Yeah, no. Obviously the conflict is spreading and getting worse. unfortunately.

Now the US says it has hit two facilities in Eastern Syria it believes were used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard and what it called a selfdefense strikes Well Bloomberg Africa Anchor Yousef G Night joins us Yousef Good morning, so take us through the latest hey Francine So basically this is the US making sure that it sends a clear signal to well, pretty much anybody who thinks that Us assets can be targeted without any response. and so this in self-defense to some of the events that happened uh in the October 17 set of developments. But the thing I want to point out is that the US Defense Secretary also said that it's unacceptable and it would not go without a clear Us response. and the Iranian side for their part I mean they also made it very clear that what they're seeing as genocide in the Uh Gaza Strip is not going to go without a response.

so there's a lot of tit forat and I Think it's important to highlight that this happened along the Uh General Assembly of the United and timately saw the Iranians how many times are we going to have a war influence specifically Hamas and others. We understand that the deputy Foreign Minister of Iran met with one of the senior Hamas Polit Bureau members in Moscow just within the last few hours so obviously getting a little bit worse. Unfortunately, bringing it back to the US Sam Bakeman freed the disgrace CEO and alleged scam artist from FTX his defense team fails to at Landa blow as he takes the stand so I covered this in the update video. Once again, I'm very disappointed in not seeing all of your names being commented there, but some of you did it and I fully appreciate it.

But at the end of the video I did Cover a little bit of the S Bigman free trial and he's basically saying hey, I thought everything I did including taking money from FTX to Alam was tiptop was 100% legal and I really just got bad legal advice from Dan Friedberg which is the person who he he seems to be trying to like. say this is the guy who did everything bad s Bman Freed Took the stand for the first time in his fraud trial on Thursday. However, he testified without a jury. president as judge Lewis Kaplan sent jurors home early to decide whether some lines of Defense were admissible.

This week's testimony is just the latest example of the defense team struggle to land a blow in the criminal fraud case. So it's it's not looking for him, it's not looking good at all like the like. I Like it's just an embarrassment. By an embarrassment.

By an embarrassment. it's bad. Been covering the trial closely and joining us now. it seems like Mack and I know you're not an attorney, but I'm sure you're talking to them that this could be a bit of a risky move.

Yeah. Sam Bman Freed. Taking the stand is widely considered to be a major gamble for the defense. It gives him the chance to put his own narrative out there on what led to the implosion of his crypto.

Empire Try to counter some of those accusations of Fraud and money laundering, but it also also offers Federal prosecutors a chance to cross-examine him. and the government has a very strong case here. In the last three weeks of trial, we've heard from multiple members of the SE suite at FTX and Alam research people who were also up until very recently Sam's closest confidence. And they're not just pointing the finger of blame at Sam they're also pleading guilty to multiple charges themselves.

Plus which, there's a plethora of written evidence to back up what they are saying. Things like signal chats and internal documents that appear to show that Sam was the one behind the scenes really orchestrating the spending of FTX customer money I Did speak to a former Federal prosecutor and trial attorney who makes the point that given how solid the prosecution's case is Sam actually didn't even have much of a choice here. The defense, according to him is losing badly. so a coherent explanation from Sam might actually help him with the jury.

But Ultimately, it is a risky decision and the entire case is coming down to his testimony. and if a jury doesn't believe him, he's done Brian that's what. I'm he get over a hundred years in prison and to my understanding of the case, it sounds like he very much deserves it. Speaking of legal trials: Trump attacks judge in New York fraud case who find him 15 G's the former president railed against judge Arthur Engoren I I never knew how to say it Engoron en engeron oh the we'll just call him judge Arthur who will deliver verdicts in his $250 million New York fraud trial Trump's 2024 presidential campaign sought to capitalize on the case by criticizing it in multiple fundraising pleas.

The judge earlier put Trump on the witness stand and then find him 10,000 for violating a limited gag order Trump in the same trial day, angrily left the courtroom after the judge shot down a defense attorney sudden request for a verdict in his favor. Um, so he's getting. This is now his second or his third fine for violating the gag order. What's interesting about this is the Po mud that is I guess thrown involving Trump.

It really just feels to like make him almost more powerful. It feels like it's making him more popular like this is a guy who his per like his brand image in the current situation is very very very much growing whenever he's being indicted. Whenever any legal thing happens, especially if it's a bad thing for him, it somehow is always spun into a good thing. And the supporters of Trump they're like nope, we like it.

It's almost causing them to dig their heels in more and make them like them even more so. anyone who I guess like is attempting to quote unquote take down Trump they're doing it in the perfectly wrong way because if anything, they're making him more popular uh, and thus making him more powerful. And really, that all sums up to maybe getting him one step closer. back to the Oval Office Five things you should allegedly know according to the mainstream media: before the Stock Market opens today Friday October 27th but before we get into that happy Friday Andron his name is Enron like the oil company um, interesting.

Well I appreciate that I appreciate that because anyone with a brain sees what's going on. well I'm not I'm just stating on the fact that it's making it more popular like you see it in the polls dude guys, I'm not the person you should get your emotional arguments from I'm just the guy who looks at stat and facts and polls like don't don't get mad at me I'm just saying hey, as more indictments come out, his polling numbers are continuing to go up. It's just that I'm not saying it's a good thing. I'm not saying it's a bad thing.

like chill, chill, chill I'm I'm not the judge I'm Matt Kors You guys are acting as if I'm the judge giving them the gag order and now I'm being accused of grifting for Trump What are you talking about F I'm literally connecting dots of hey, here's all these indictments and here's his poll numbers. Everyone chill, everyone, take a breather Casey you're having a bad day Don Like guys I I'm not some massive political commentator I I'm just a dude who's like hey, I see his polling numbers are go up I Don't give a how you vote You could vote Yay nay, you could be on the jury. You could be whatever you want. It's all good.

We're all Gucci it's Friday it it. It's all good. The world's going to keep rotating I Promise you, if we all take a breather, it's going to be fine. Vote how you want I'm going to vote how I want and that's just kind of how the world works, right? You know? Uh, just saying Trump triggers a lot of people I mean obviously Casey doesn't like Trump but that's what's cool about America is you're entitled to your opinion all I ask of you for however, you're going to vote First of all, I Ask that you vote but before you vote I Ask that people do research I Think there's a lot of people who go to the polls and I'm a big fan of voting, but then they actually don't know anything about it.

That's the only thing when it comes to voting and me and my opinion on voting. I'm not going to tell you how to vote I don't care how you vote all I ask of you is to do like at minimum 20 to 30 minutes of research so you understand like what you're voting on. That's my only Qu. that's my only ask.

just do a little bit of research. Uh, I would in no way be opposed to them making you pass like a super easy mini quiz just so people know. I'm just so tired of people voting party lines without actually knowing what they're voting for I Think it's silly in fact I would rather people vote on what they think the cooler names are rather than voting on party lines I am a bigger fan of just voting on cool names rather than just being like I'm a Democrat I have to vote blue I'm a republican I have to vote red In fact I actually wish they didn't even tell you democrat or republican I wish the average voter was forced into having to know the names like I Think they should take away the political affiliation on the ballot. Uh, because I think it would force people to have to be a little bit more informed because I really do think that there's people who are like I'm a republican I have to vote for Republicans I'm a Democrat I have to vote for Democrats and I hate that because then you're not actually doing any research.

you're just voting party lines and I think that's silly I Think that's actually like vote these nuts. That's another very, very valid way to engage in the democratic system here in our constitutional republic. You could just always vote de nuts. Um I Think you could do that? Uh, stop backtrack.

What am I backtracking on Casey What did I Backtrack on If anything, I'm plowing ahead I'm saying it's dumb I Want everyone to vote I Think you should be an informed voter and I wish they didn't tell you the political affiliation on the ballot because I think people just vote with party lines. That's not backtracking. You're just mad that I said Trump But then there's other people in here. Casey As much as you hate Trump There's people in here that hate Biden that much.

So like as much as you might think you are like logically a 100% right? Please understand that on the other side, there are people who think they're 100% logically right and Everyone's entitled to their own opinion. I Just ask that people actually get informed on the matter before casting their vote I Don't think that's like really backtracking on anything I think that's just a pretty based logical take. um I'm much more concerned with like what I'm yoloing my entire options account on today than I Guess having political discourse CU I'm This might come as a surprise to many people in here, but I Don't think anyone's had their mind changed in an internet fight. It's kind of.

um, it's it's It's kind of like a waste of time when people like, especially fighting about politics on the internet because no one's ever been like, you know what? I saw a tweet the other day and that's now prompting me to reframe my entire political idea ideology. It just doesn't happen. it just it just doesn't happen. So anyway, five things to know.

but Casey could you please hit the like button and then everyone else follow the lead of Casey and smash the like button I Think if you compare 2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023, you should see whose policies are better. You know, statistically. Um, it gets a lot more complicated than that, but we can talk about that a bit later. Uh, because some sometimes you have to look at like can bills get ped? Are they not getting ped? Uh, are there extraneous situations such as War like it's you, You can't compare necessarily Apples to Apples like that limping home.

We're talking about the market and here's a look at the daily. o Just so you know, the Pce report came out right here. This giant arrow we popped up. We came down.

We popped up, We came down. We popped up and we are now about 37 32 cents above where we were right before the Pce report came out. So as of now and we have about 15 minutes to go until the Market opens slightly. Positive results.

Uh, or I should say reaction to the Pce results. So anyway, uh, it's Friday Fridays get a little funky. They get a little bit weird, but what? I Want to show you? no? Well now I need to get rid of this giant arrow. Well, can I not get rid of the arrow on that time frame? Get rid of this.

Okay, here's the daily. Um, yeah, the Bears have been in control and you could argue that they've been in control. The downtrend started in Late July but the breakdown: the market structure shift really showed itself. evidently in mid August.

Then we shot up. put in that lower high. So it's like, okay, this was the peak. You probably didn't know you got a good warning signal in mid August And then it became evident at the start of September when we could not produce.

And then it was screaming in your face when we got the breakdown in late September. But anyway, lower High highs, lower lows. We you're breaking down below important trend lines in mid October even worse ones recently this week and we're far away from the moving averages like it tried to protect itself here in mid- October And then it just started to absolutely vomit. And that's where we are.

So this is the general kind of medium-term trend: Lower highs, lower lows. Uh, obviously the pairs are in control. I Mean just look at the EMA Cloud it's red and it's actually pointing down. It's getting worse.

It's not even pointing up. Um, but do that have particular I guess effects on what happens today? No, not really. I Mean even in a bare Market you can have green days, and then even in a bull market, you can have red day. So in terms of my prediction on the day, dude, your guess is as good as mine 5050, we'll see how it plays out.

Um, I would actually argue that the Bulls have a slight upper hand, but that is by no means a guarantee. Today is going to be a green day. I'm just looking at the seasonality of today and I'm looking at the historic reaction to the the Pce report looking at the last 10 and then also, you could argue a little bit of mean reversion like there. It's not the craziest argument to say that when we get this overextended to the downside, look for a popup.

The same thing of like when you see a huge rip to the upside. not the most insane thing to say. Okay, look for just like a mean reverting trade back to the cloud. So uh, pairing a couple of those things together I Would say that the Bulls have the slight upper hand today just from a statistical standpoint.

but I'm not going to be trading on that. I'm going to be trading off of price action and the intraday I Guess technicals that set up supports that are held or broken resistances that are rejected or broken out. uh. I'm going to LIT Price action Tell me what to do.

And right now these are just kind of like my gut feeling Vibes on the day, but really gut feeling Vibes is not how you make money. um Prime margins just basically Amazon crushing it Ford Rough. Uh so Ford Talking about the UAW and it's getting a little bit closer to this strike ending seemingly but still very much underway. Air strikes in Syria We talked about that.

The Us is going through really awkward reporting in press conferences saying this is just defense. those giant air strikes. We did purely defensive giant air strikes. Uh, and it has nothing to do with Israel and Hamas And please don't expand the conflict type of a deal.

It's interesting. Big Oil earnings. So let's actually see how oil's been doing. Oil sitting at 84 Recently ripping took a drop popped when the whole Israel Palestine Hamas stuff broke out.

but now taking another breather sitting at 84? Uh, so is this going to be a W? Is it going to be a double bottom? or is it a lower high? That's going to lead to a lower low and then we end up vomiting to 77 and potentially even worse. Your guess is as good as mine. But we do have some earnings right now. Chevron Uh, excuse me Exxon up 65% So slight positive reaction to actually was up all the way up here at one point.

Uh, coming down a little bit. so that was Exxon Chevron down by 2.3% So Exxon in the green chevron in the red. let's see how some of these other ones did. Uh, Oxie is up.

Uh, earlier this week it was actually reported that Warren Buffett was buying more. so Warren Buffett continuing to increase his oxy holding. uh dvn let's look at Devon Energy slightly green this morning just chilling at 47 really hasn't done the most. Recently popped, sold off.

we're kind of down at this neutral region, so energy I Don't know if there's going to be, uh, a clear tradable move in the short term, but maybe setting up to do a bit of consolidation and then we could watch it to look for that consolidation breakout. In terms of tech, here's a look at Tesla hanging out at 210 continually saving itself just above 200 Netflix still holding above 400 ever since its massive earnings beat, but successfully holding above 400. So congrats if you've been a Netflix bull. Uh, Apple under quite a bit of pressure Apple actually almost breaking down yesterday, bouncing a little bit.

but Apple in terms of the tech names not looking good and then this obviously has a pretty sizable adverse impact on the spy and the que's because Apple is obviously the biggest company in the US Stock Market So when Apple's vomiting, it tends to drag the indices down with it. Microsoft Like I said, Microsoft actually beat on earnings, but then just because the rest of the market is like a little suspect right now, obviously not holding much of theirs I mean it went from 340 all the way down to 327 G Uh, so it's doing its best to hold this breakout. It did have good earnings Microsoft clearly beat on earnings Amazon beat on earnings Intel beat on earnings Netflix beat on earnings so there are some trying to hold it up, but Tesla Completely missed Google Completely missed Meta's future guidance GH Not good. So like we're we're in a weird, weird situation.

Uh, Nvidia is starting to finally show weakness after so long of strength. Uh, but higher highs, higher lows. And now you could see right here. as of yesterday, it broke below the low that was established in late September I am actually and actually poked below the low in mid.

August If Nvidia gets below and closes below 403. Um, obviously there's a key psychological level at 400, but really I would then be watching for 374. Follow by 366, I think Nvidia uh from a fundamental perspective and I'm not really the biggest fundamental. Trader Uh, once in a while I'll do some fundamental investing, but fundamental is just not really my style.

But anyway, Uh, Nvidia from many, many fundamental perspectives is greatly overvalued. from a technical perspective. Shoulder, Head. Shoulder.

that's obviously a bearish development. You look for the snap of the neckline which appears to have happened yesterday, so you could risk the head and then for the measure move. Uh, let's actually set up what the measured move would look like. Uh, if you were to risk this, let's just do wait.

Where is my risk to reward, right? If you did a one to one risk to reward which has about an 83% accuracy, you'd basically be playing this downside: Gap F to 306. So I'm looking for the snap of the neckline at about 403 the height, which was all the way up at 502 and then that would be bringing you back down to 303 for one to one risk reward on Nvidia I Like Nvidia in the long term, but in the shortterm, it's clearly overvalued. I Mean it's price to earnings ratio is like what was it? Isn't it above like 00 or something? Its Revenue to earnings is like a 40 or 50x. it's just overvalued and I think it needs to take a reasonable breather.

Um, before it like actually can get back into is like almost like a normal evaluation. Meta was attempting to hold its breakout. Um, and then with its earnings, its earnings were a beat. but then its future looking guidance.

They were not that optimistic. So I'm kind of watching this breakdown of 274. maybe setting up a sell off to 260. and then there is also a downside Gap fill on Meta all the way down to 214, but just kind of like a blowoff top here in mid.

October A little bit of a liquidity grab getting smoked, and then the earnings. not breaking the way of the Bulls but definitely favoring the Bears. Uh, Amazon it is currently up 5.3% Um, remember Amazon it broke below this trend line that was bearish. Then things got worse when it was announced that the FTC is investigating them for monopolistic practices basically bake breaking antitrust rules, so sold off.

worse try to make a recovery. Could not get this upside. Gap fill of 135 so kind of a failed breakout is inherently bearish so got smacked, could not turn the cloud back over, and then continued to vomit right here. This Gap up.

Obviously it's bullish in the short term, but the Gap Up's not even above its cloud. Like yeah, it's going to turn some of the EMAs a little bit, but the Cloud's still been very, very bearish ever since late. September So if anything, I would be watching this move to essentially just get faded. uh I'm not looking to be bullish on Amazon If anything, I'm watching it, watching it, watching it.

and then I would be looking to if when it shows weakness to be playing. The downside: Gap Field to 12164 because overall I'm just not that optimistic on the tech sector right now. This is a look at the tech sector. Yesterday was a legitimate breakdown.

We closed below this low. Um, just kind of watching these parallel lines. the lower highs, the lower lows. This is a bull Channel a bull flag.

Call it whatever you want to. commonly these break to the upside with about a 10% Edge Obviously this one did not follow that. 10% Edge and it broke down closed down below. obviously.

I mean we're now talking about maybe this potential downside. gapi to 33291 in the medium term, it's trying to save itself right here. Maybe it's a liquidity sweep. Maybe it's a trap to break down close below and then end up screwing people over.

But I don't think so. I Could realistically see a retest of this 350 maybe 3, 3, 54 region and just kind of keep doing this thing where it goes up bigger vomit. It goes up bigger vomit, so once again we might go up bigger vomit type of a deal. That's kind of my base case for now, but once again, not married to it.

I will more than happily be like okay, like the price action. The technicals are changing, but when you look at the Spy you look at the cues. It's very, very difficult to argue that the Be Camp is not in control. They are in control.

In fact, they're in so much control that we are far distance away from the moving average. So at this point in the short term you might be thinking more of like, okay, mean reversion, but in the medium term we'll mean revert to the moving averages and then just have another leg to the downside. So that's kind of what I'm paying attention to. On that note, we have about five minutes until the Bell goes dingy ding ding ding.

So we started early today, which I kind of like these days because um, it gives us a little bit more time to CH talk about like what you guys have questions on before we get rocking. So anyway, Amazon and Intel up on the top right and bottom right of your screen screen Amazon currently up 5.4% and Intel up 6.7 both beating on earnings. Will it hold? I Don't know. We'll pay attention to Meta.

uh, or pay attention to see if there's a reaction like Meta where it goes up and then it gets dumped. Uh, so watching these throughout the day I'm not necessarily going to be chasing to the upside because it feels like I'm fighting against the grain where if anything I think there's larger risk to the downside. So uh, I'd be if anything, watching watching watching, see if there's weakness and then attack at that point. But anyway, the Spy Curr trading at 14447 so up about 24 from when we got the Pce report and the Q's are just chilling 34650 uh for me in terms of my positions right now I have a Q's call Credit spread for November 10th 361 by 362 as in I want it below 361 by November 10th I Also have a Q Credit spread for today October 27th 351 by 352 as in I want it below 351 and then I also have a spy call Credit spread once again for November 10th uh and that is 429 by 430.

So those distance ones the November 10th uh on the Qes and the Spy once again 361 by 362 429 by 430 call Credit spread I want it below those lower values. Feeling good about those? I'm a little bit worried about the cues for today. Uh, 351 352 Now the reason I'm worried about it is because uh I played it too big like I I've I'm feeling pretty good that the Q's aren't going to be above 351 by the time the Bell goes dingy. ding Ding ding today.

Uh, and as in for Market close slightly different dingy ding ding ding. Um, but I'm fee