Foreign. Beautiful. Thank you You You know, Brother oh brother oh brother oh brother Happy! Friday Happy! Friday Welcome back to the Matt Core Show where I am at your cores and together we are the show. Let's give a nice little round of applause to Chaos, my producer for making probably the best intro of any of my shows ever.

Uh folks. I Hope you're ready to watch Barbie this weekend I Hope you're ready to watch Oppenheimer This weekend I was literally just looking to see if there's seats available and it's one of those things like it's like there's like a seat left at like an 11 30 showing. crazy crazy, crazy crazy to see how popular these movies appear to be at least on the initial weekend ticket sales. Very very excited.

but I'm also very excited about what's going on in the market. Yesterday after a little bit of a rippity skippity doo-dah Non-Stop For a couple weeks, couple months, the market started to take a bit of a breather. But if you're looking at pre-market now, we're already ripping back up to where we kind of were at the highs of yesterday. and I think a lot of craziness could be going down today.

This is one of the biggest expiration days ever in terms of money just involved in contracts expiring, rolling, doing something today. We are talking lots of dinero. Lots of dinero. So right now I Just want to let you know.

going into today: I Currently have no position if you watch my wrap-up stream yesterday. It was one of my luckiest trading days ever. if you missed it I Highly recommend you check out the wrap up because my account has been more wild than like an EKG during a heart attack. I mean it started at 30, ripped up to something, came back down, then ripped up to 200, fell down to 150 and at one point yesterday because that was pretty long on Tesla calls and Netflix calls and Market opened my account actually dipped down to 70 and then I took 69k and I said dude, this thing's the bomb is going to fall out and I bet against SPX I bet against Ndx I did that in the morning stream I didn't do anything throughout the day and then you guys saw and the Power Hour stream is when I captured all my profits and I was able to turn things around to the 2 of like 140k.

crazy, lucky, crazy, degenerate, super mentally unhealthy, super physically unhealthy, Mathematically improbable. It's not something that should be like oh, that's the methodology that I'm gonna do. it's just lucky stars aligned and I figured, hey, why press my luck, let's just kill everything at the end of the day. Let's take the money, let's go into cash and reevaluate.

maybe not even trade. Today last Friday after some big wins, I came in on Friday and tried to do some stuff and that's where I lost another 40 50k. So today unless I see something I love, probably not trading unless I see uh. perfect.

A perfect setup I might be doing nothing, especially knowing today my base case is high volatility. We're going to be going over the numbers of all the money expiring today in terms of options and contracts and all that good stuff. but I'm fully expecting a massively massively massively insane day. So if that means that there's going to be a lot of whipsaw I just don't want to play now if it means that we're gonna have a beautiful Trend To the upside or to the downside, I'd happily play that I don't care if it's bullish I don't care if it's bearish I'll play either direction I'm just looking for a nice Trend that I can get in ideally early and ideally ride the whole thing.

but obviously we gotta let the market gods and the price action dictate what's actually going down I have no bias on the day I Don't care if it's bullish I Don't care if it's bearish I Very much care if it's shot because if it's choppy, your boy doesn't want to be involved. So I want to go over everything that's kind of happened this week. We've had a lot of earnings not so heavy on the macroeconomic reports, but next week we're continuing with earnings and we are heavy on the macroeconomic reports. Next week is going to be gangbusters and I know that's crazy to say because you could be thinking, well, this whole past little couple weeks couple months of trading have been Gangbusters? Yeah, continuing next week for sure.

Mainly because we have massive earnings from some of the biggest tech companies, some of the biggest companies in the world. And then on top of that, we also have the Fomc meeting where the Fed's going to say, okay, are we cutting rates? Are we jacking up rates? Are we going to stay neutral? Are we going to not really touch them? Are we pausing? Are we skipping? We know inflation's been coming down, the magnitude's still high, but we are nose diving down. So somewhat good. So we're going to be finding out quite a bit soon.

quite a bit soon, and then from there. obviously the market at 1.5 percent away from an all-time high. Absolutely insane. So lots going on.

lots of money making opportunities I Hope you're making money I Hope you're taking a little bit easier on your mental health than I've been recently because it's just every single day. It's two modes. Oh wait, you guys didn't tell me my astronaut's not on. Come on guys, What do you think I hire you for? You guys just let me talk for five minutes and our moon wasn't on.

What gives? You're all fired I Know I Fired you two days ago but you're all now fired A second. You're double fired. You are absolutely double fired. How's that feel? How's your Friday morning feel Fired twice in one week? Better hope.

I'm not a reference on your next job application because they'll call me and I'll be like, are they a good worker I'll be like, well, do you want to employ someone who doesn't do their job and gets fired twice in one week? Definitely, don't put me down on as a reference. That's absolutely I'm not mad I'm upset I am not mad, just upset. So want that out there. Double Fired.

Double fired I Thought we were gonna have a good day today, but apparently you folks, uh, don't want to have a good day. You've probably ruined everything. Thanks a lot Now, alas, fear not. I'll save us I'll bring the mood back around even though you guys come at me with such a personal slight against the show, against the community.

I'll be the bigger man and I'm going to turn this back around I'll I'll get us right on the back. Right on the proper path. So folks Lots going down Market's crazy. Probably a good argument to size down.

Be very specific with your entries. be very respectful of your risk. Probably seems to be the going theme of the day. We have some earnings to go over, some macro economic updates to go over.

We have some just overall charting price, action stuff to go over as well, but it is. Friday TGIF I Hope you guys had a good week. Keep it all together. Let's end out the week on a positive vibe.

I Hope you're ready for a fun weekend. I Hope you have the opportunity to hang out with family, friends, loved ones all that good. Oh dude, completely forgot. So remember whatever day of this week when I was talking to you about my stress levels, it's like oh, when it rains, it pours and then I just like kind of came to the realization of it's probably appropriate for my family to meet my fiance's family before we do this whole wedding thing and then I guess like that's kind of just.

it's almost normal sometimes, especially depending on where the families live. Sometimes families live like far apart so they don't meet each other until the wedding. Well my girlfriend or my fiance uh at when she was a girlfriend I've met her family, she's met mine but when we were just dating, our families never met and now that we're engaged, we're like we should probably meet. So that's going down this weekend.

and I don't know why, but I feel like levels of stress like I don't think anything's gonna wrong. Her family's cool, my family's cool. like just two cool families vibing you know but still like is that weird? like would you guys I'm sure someone in chats had to be in my position. Why am I feeling a low level of stress about it like something's off and I don't know why.

so I have to deal with that. This weekend we're gonna be in the The Iron Jungle. Um, so if you guys see me and I appear to be walking around with like two awkward families who are not communicating, it would be amazing if you could just run up and be like ah, you guys look great to families. like just if a stranger can run up to us and just be like dude, you look like two families who are really getting along, all of them owe you later.

Uh, we could work something out. A little bit of a backdoor deal. Uh, something about it. It's almost life-changing stuff man because it means a lot to you.

It's normal to be nervous I'm just gonna hire all you guys to be around the whole time and just keep the Vibes High just keep the vibe super high. be like oh, this day's going great. Um yeah. paid actors.

What I'm gonna do is come up with a giant Ploy Between Brooklyn and Manhattan Everyone that surrounds us all day is paid actors. We are going to facilitate a very, very positive outcome. So um, rehired. I'll hire you for that.

It's a temp job all right. So you guys are still fired from the stream, but in terms of this, it's It's a gig economy. The gig economy is obviously really popular right now. This is a side gig.

so you're rehired, but this is a particular project. I'm not going to put you like you're a contractor, you're not an employee right now. Let's just get that across. Uh, try meeting her parents you've been married to for a few months secretly.

true story all right I guess I have less things to be nervous about that sounds like a wild one. Here's a conversation starter for you. Hey I made 70k today yeah no uh my parents and her parents are like super like both families are really weird about money which I've like socially run into issues with that because like to my world to my brand to all of us I like to be transparent and I like to share I like to be like oh crap I really messed up today or oh awesome Today is a great day I made a lot of money and uh the families. neither family likes to talk about money which I think is common like I don't think that's a special comment um but they follow my Twitter and like I I think I don't know.

It definitely causes a little bit of awkwardness for sure when they see like these huge wins and these huge losses because like neither family, that's just not the world they come from. they come from like working in. Corporate America you work your nine to five, you're 40, 50 hours, you collect your paycheck, you invest in the long term and then they just like my full-on degeneracy. It definitely causes some awkwardness.

um I should probably just block them on Twitter it'll make the Thanksgiving day like small talk a little bit more manageable, but who knows I'll let you know how that's going. they could be listening right now. Yeah, they they might be. Uh Matt is unsure of his family's boxing skills I don't think they're my family would be much of boxers at all like it would be so wild.

oh man. so before when I got super upset about you folks not telling me about the moon I was going into a little bit of a thing I wanted to mention about like mental health and for the past two weeks pretty much for July for July I've been on a crazy run. so um June 30th until now the month of July I was looking at my Weeble and not in terms of like an individual trade but in terms of like a series of Trades and like where my accounts at like I guess if we just if we look at it if like the first the best probably three weeks of trading of my career um but it did not come easily I was looking at my P L and if I do custom and I could put in June 30th June 30th until now so June 30th or wait am I supposed to do the past month I just did them I don't know we will give you like the one month thing June 30th Let me get this. what was I looking at June 30th to July 21st.

Yeah so it's up if that ever comes in. Oh man, that really doesn't want to focus on my phone? There it goes. 171 from uh, it focused there for a second. Why will it not focus on this? Just like look at my screen so on a crazy rip right now that's the the P L from June 30th to July 21st.

Uh so working on the best month but what's funny is like Financial you're probably like dude, that's so crazy that's a lot of money and it is really crazy. It's a lot of money. The average American family right now is bringing in 50 60k. So I I 3x a family income in America in three weeks.

That's crazy I respect that and I think it's really easy. A lot of the times when people just like talk about their numbers and whenever it's green like okay, it's sick, that's dope. but I don't think one thing that's talked about enough is over the past three weeks of my life, every single night my brain is either full of dopamine and I'm excited and I'm chipper and I'm happy and I'm the best fiance and I'm like just a happy at the gym I'm on the stair stepper smiling like oh, it's a great day to be Matt and then the other half of the nights when I'm losing because I'm losing big Dude, that's like I don't know what the chemical would be cortisol, my stress levels dude, the my emotional bandwidth right now of like what my days are is so incredibly wide and there's no way that could be healthy like they're like obviously I'd rather be in this situation now where like I'm taking on all that like craziness and I'm still positive but I could have taken all that craziness and could have been the exact opposite I could have easily lost that amount of money and something about the mental health with this I was like this is it's really really fun right now obviously if you're up, but it's so unsustainable it's so incredibly unsustainable to have like all that dopamine like I feel like you almost need like a dopamine detox and then on the other side whatever the where I don't know if it's like serotonin or cortisol or whatever it is, but like the stress and anger and depression levels on like the days that you lose big and like multiple times this week I've made a full year income and then multiple times excuse me this month I've made it and then multiple times I've also lost it. Uh, and I don't know I need to come up with a better methodology.

Like without it, it's just not a sustainable path. It's just not sustainable like it should be. A nice little like grind up and up and up. Nice percentage gains opposed to like, oh okay, kind of my P L chart right now.

Um so I don't know I need to figure something out. Hey, if there's any trading psychologists in here, would love to talk to you if there's any therapists in here or performance coaches. Yeah, hit me up. let's chat.

I have a lot of things on my mind. Uh, would love to. uh, would love to have a little bit of a conversation on it I laugh because it's scary. Let's talk about the market dude.

What an intro to a show. That's This is what you guys all pay the big bucks for. This is why you guys all pay the zero dollars to watch this show. Oh man, hey I have a sip of coffee.

It's fun. It doesn't matter, none of us get out of this game alive. Anyway, it's all fake. It's all simulation.

So the spies rip into yesterday's high which is crazy. Look at this. the Spy going from 450 150 all the way up to 450 450 post and pre-market climbing. Three dollars Tesla climbing a little bit meta turning around Q's turning around a little bit of bullishness now.

Stock futures are higher after Dow registers. Longest winning streak since 2017. So the Dow's been crushing it. The Spy has been crushing it.

The cues have been crushing it. Even the small cap sector has been doing really really well lately. But today is gonna be unique. Not just because it's a Friday, not just because it's Barbie Oppenheimer Boppenheimer Weekend, but because financially A lot's going down.

Today is the largest July option expiry in history as in from like the Big Bang till now we have not seen more option expiry like you could be thinking. but like, what about that one time in Ancient Egypt when everyone was yoloing on Microsoft Yeah, not today's even bigger you might be thinking. but what about like when the pilgrims were coming over to the Mayflower and they felt like really good about those cue puts Yeah, no fair point, that was big. That was important.

but this is bigger and then some of you. Really? you could be like ah, I get that it's huge and everything. But there's no way it's bigger than the Tulip contracts in 1658, which we all remember so fondly. It's bigger than that.

It's a bigger role than that. So just throwing that out there that today truly is a historic day. Today is the largest July option expiry in history. There's over 2.3 trillion.

That's trillion with a t of notional options exposure expiring, including 500 billion notional of single stock options. Also, the QQQ rebalancing takes place at close. most likely gonna have a pretty sizable impact on the Super Seven. So for those of you who like charts and graphs, this gives us an idea of where this is all going.

Uh, I mean index options 1.3 trillion options on Futures 240 billion ETF Options 410 billion single stock options 490 billion So on the right side over here. uh, the PM am sessions. There are some that expire in the morning that's going to relate to overall indices and then most of us end up playing the PM ones and you're going to see obviously quite a bit more money over there. like it's just so crazy what's going down today.

So just in terms of our people in the money, out of the money, are they rolling, what's going on, what level of degeneracy? then throw a little bit of gasoline onto that fire because we're getting a rebalancing of the cues. If this is the first time you've ever heard of rebalancing just for maybe some of the newer traders in here, Newer investors rebalancing is we have this: these ETFs in exchange traded fund. We also have these indices S P 500 which is the overall Market considered to be 500 of the most influential companies and stocks of the time. But remember it wasn't just made and we're done.

It actually changes. So the S P 500 isn't the one that's changing. it's the NASDAQ 100 which is 100 very influential companies that don't count any financials and are a little bit more heavy on Tech So those are going to get rebalanced because of the extreme over performance of seven of those and the extreme over performance. Let's see if I can remember: it's Apple.

it's Microsoft it's Nvidia it's Netflix it's Tesla meta and Google I think I got all seven. But basically there's a lot of murmurs. A lot of murmurs out on the street. You know me as a guy who really has his ear to the grindstone.

nose to the Grindstone. Here 's to the wall. nose to the grindstone. Here's where you're putting your ears.

ears to the floor, ears to the ears, to the here's to the wall. What's this saying? Knows The butter to the balls to the wall not not the one I was thinking of ears to the ground as the guy with the nose on the ground. A lot of murmurs that this could have a sizable impact on Microsoft and Netflix or was it Nvidia The assumption is that a lot of these right here Microsoft Apple and video Google Amazon Tesla might be closer to the realm. Like there's some assumption that Microsoft Apple and Nvidia might actually go to nine percent.

So that's down for Microsoft down for Apple up for a new video. Once again, these are all just conjectures. but obviously we will be finding out. and this rebalancing is important.

Not only because does it cause actual like the cues that ETF to be buying and selling certain stuff in the right proportions, but remember, a lot of fund managers out there, they perfectly mimic these ETFs So there's going to be a lot of fun managers who are like, oh, we need to do it too. It's not just the cues, it's not just the NASDAQ There's a lot of people who mirror these and they're going to be forced to do the exact same thing. so they could be like in lockstep with the actual index. So one of put that out there, it's a crazy day.

It's a summer Friday which those are always a little bit weird this particular summer Friday A record-breaking amount of options. money like just have something has to happen today. and then we also get the rebalancing. So today with all this craziness like I said unless I see like a a setup that like I'm just absolutely in love with it might just be a good day to completely sit on hand.

So once again, if I see something I absolutely love I'll play it I'll probably play it smaller he says knowing that he doesn't have that type of discipline. But other than that, if if it's just not there, it's not there because I just don't want to get chopped alive. In terms of seasonality, Today is bearish. The Bulls have won this day only seven or excuse me, 28 of the time.

meaning the Bears have won it 72 percent of the time and the profit Vector is 0.57 as in every dollar bet in the bullish. Direction on this particular day over the past 25 years has only returned to 57 cents obviously a net loss. And then here's a look at the equity curve for once again, this over the past two and a half decades slowly but surely trending down. but over the past three years we've actually gotten a little bit of a pop.

so seasonality it's favoring the bears. But that's not like the major thing that I trade on like I'd like to know this seasonality I like to like recognize when seasonality is in alignment with whatever the current age trend is so like I add it as like a little just makes me a bit more confident. But I'm not going to be basing my trades exclusively off of this. Now in terms of macroeconomic reports: Friday July 21st nothing Nana zilch goose egg.

nothing going down so we don't have to worry, worry about any surprise announcements. But that's just kind of the con before the storm because next week, boy oh boy. PMI PMI Consumer confidence Fomc decision Chairman of the FED pal speaking uh, then we get the normal Thursday stuff. We're also going to get a GDP report and then on Friday we're getting a Pce report.

We're also getting another consumer sentiment report. So next week to wrap up the month of July Lots of reports, so nothing going down today, particularly in terms of macroeconomic reports. But next week golly Oh golly in terms of earnings for today before the market opened American Express I Believe it is currently down on that Uh Capital One Beat on earnings missed on Revenue I Forget what happened to S LD I'll have to look into that. but this is continuing.

This is pretty much the major start of earnings season. It will definitively be in like high octane, fast and fury eye gear. like where you're going to need your family for support over the next two weeks and it even continues past that. But in the next two weeks, all the biggest companies in the world will be reporting.

Five things to know before the stock Market: Bell goes dingity ding ding ding today. Friday July 21st on Cloud Nine, The Dow's been crushing it. We all know that short supply. Yes, we know existing home sales are going down.

Mortgages are up, people. just what they're locked in at. People don't really want to sell right now. Ai commitment.

so the government got commitments from Google Meta Microsoft Amazon that they're gonna like. Pinky promised to be secure with AI Kind of weird. uh. weighing cargo declines cargo Revenue The major airlines, the townshop year over year Delta United American each reporting roughly 40 decline in business unit for the second quarter.

Whoa. uh, counter offensive that has to do with Ukraine and Russia something that doesn't seem to be specifically impacting the market anymore. But definitely pay attention to the world of wheat, what's going on with the the grain deal, and also what's going on with the ports. Exploding wheat's been going up in price, so something just to keep your mind on if I have any Wheat traders in here.

So that's the major thing that I want a lot of you to know about. Uh, interesting thing I just want to throw out here. end of the day Yesterday the final 30 minutes the final 15 minutes for that giant purple arrow is Market internals actually turn bullish so they were pretty bearish all day. Bearish Bearish Bearish.

Bears spare spare spares which made me confident in holding my Bear's position all day. But right at the end, something I did not notice until this morning. it actually turned bullish again and it is interesting to see how quickly it played out. I mean we popped a little bit into clothes, went flat pre-market strong, strong, and it doesn't even really seem to do anything with like earnings.

It's not like we had a mega impactful company come out and say yeah, no, we're crushing it and that brought up the Spy It seems to definitely have more to do with just people trying to make anticipatory bets related to the options expiry today. Remember trillions trillions trillion trillion trillions Trillions on the line should be an exciting day. So for me I want to let you know? let me check this out. Um, just want to be transparent.

Got nothing right now. No positions on No Futures trades on no options, trades on obviously I have my long-term account but I don't really talk about that because it's just not that exciting. Uh, right here we're sitting. recovery of a lifetime yesterday 70 to 210.

that was I mean the low yesterday was 70. the high was actually 230 but I was wondering I was going to push for 250. So I got a little greedy I did scale out, then it came down to 200. then it bounced up and then I got a good exit on the Ndx.

put not the best exits on the SPX but I at least was scaling out properly. So the name of the game for me today is to keep the Train on the tracks to try to keep my mental health at a manageable level with what's going on. and basically you can keep your help I view it as you can keep your mental health at a manageable level if you're just taking reasonable risk to reward setups. I've been getting into a situation where mentally I'm unwilling to admit where I'm wrong.

So when things go against me instead of saying yeah, I should cut it. What I end up doing is doubling down to lower my average just to give myself a better chance of getting out. and then that goes against me. and then I end up doubling down on the doubling down.

So I'm quadrupling down and then it's all of a sudden how like a five or ten thousand dollar bet turns into like a fifty thousand dollar bet and then I'm sitting there watching every single minute bar and when things are going my way. I'm like oh, it's a recovery I'm back to break even. That's where I said I was going to get out and then I don't get out because I get greedy and then worse situation is actually when it keeps going against me now I've quadrupled my bet and I'm like oh and then I get screaming at every single bar and then I look over at the internals and they flipped on me. So now I'm out of Trends so it just becomes a massive mess very very quickly.

So the name of the game. Now that I feel like one of the most fortunate lucky Traders out there just fold degeneracy apparently paid off yesterday, it feels like it's appropriate to be like okay I need to size down I need to be disciplined enough to only trade with Trend based on how my system defines Trend I'd like to know what's going on with seasonality, but that's not the end I'll be all I Like to know the trend of larger time frames, Tell me what's going down on the daily, the four hour and the two hour I Like to know the major trends when the Market opens I Like to wait 15 minutes to see what the internals are telling me to the New York Stock Exchange So basically I need to be disciplined enough to wait for everything to align. What's going on on the daily? the four hour, the two hour what's going on with the internals and then when the day gets going, what direction are the moving averages pointing? Are they sideways? Are they choppy? Are they going against my thesis? or are they actually showing a nice Trend in line with everything else? So basically what I want is for the daily, the four other two hour, the internals and the EMAs to all tell me One Direction either bullish or bearish and then what I want is for there to be an inverse the opposite way. So I could get a better entry and then I want the overall trend to be continuing.

That's the name of the game. That's what I'm looking for. And on that note, dignity, ding, ding ding. The casino is open.

best of luck to all. Play responsibly and don't forget it is a Barbie world. All right, All right. All right.

Well with all that being said, with all that being said, the Market's open I mean a nice movement upward on the Spy if we looked at the daily chart right now. We closed out yesterday at 4 52 18 and today we opened up at 4 54. that's a strong open in terms of levels I care about if we start to push 455 I'm looking for a return to 456.50 I Think there could be a nice dollar and a half of upside? On the flip side, if we start to show some weakness if we start to break down if we start to, um, how do I want to see this if we go, this is the strange opening. if we go below 452 I might start to Target 451.25 So just throwing out some levels of interest to me.

Very very strong opening for as you know, but today specifically not only because of attempting to be more disciplined, but also because of the options expiry. I'm definitely not doing anything in the first 15 minutes, probably not even doing anything in the first half hour, just waiting to see how things go. Don't go I Want to know the opening I Want to know how people are structuring themselves for the day I Want to know what the big bulls are doing I Want to know what the Bears are doing I just need a little bit more info in an attempt to give myself like a higher odds opportunity. So calm, cool, collected.

You don't need to rush it even if you don't find a good trade today. trust me, the Market's going to be there on Monday It's all right if you don't make a trade today. A-Okay um I guess I'm really just giving words of affirmation to myself, but as of now I personally have no position on at all so we're just going to see what the market ends up giving us. just in case you're curious.

The Market opening actually favoring the Bulls Yeah, no. Um, so seasonality is bearish today as I previously expressed. but internally we opened up with a nice a nice bullish flare. A nice bullish flare.

So okay, that's interesting. No it. and if the markets remain strong. I'm kind of interested of this test of 455 yesterday's high.

Um, so maybe we should set an alert on that. Breaking out of there could set up a beautiful test of 456.50 A nice dollar fifty return. You obviously might want to use some intraday I guess pivots Azure risk that's I Think reasonable. but that's just my first going thesis I'm not doing anything yet once again I Want to wait? We are not going to be surprised by any macro economic at least scheduled announcements of course Biden could say anything I guess at any time or anything could get developed, but as of now nothing is scheduled so it's not like we're waiting for a 9 45 report or a 10 a.m report or anything like that.

So with all that being said, right now is the time to see how things open, to see where the support is estab established, to see where resistance is established. So as we're waiting for all that to appropriately play out any questions, comments, concerns, and really what I mean with that is, do you have any like charts you want me to look at D-wac There was an announcement with Dwac and the SEC D-wac D-wac Dwac Dwac I Think they came to some form of a conclusion. went from 13 to 1750. Do you act currently up 32 on the day? and it's something with the SEC case against Dwac of some sort of resolution for this to chaos for the awesome thumbnail? Your abs look great Matt Thank you on honestly, that's the only thing of the photo not Photoshop those are the real apps I wish uh, can I look at palantir Palantir Palantir Palantir Palantir yeah I mean kind of like the overall Market Ripped pull back ripped again still above this trend line.

A little bit of a pullback I Would never be chasing at new highs I Always think that's silly. Um, maybe if it reverts around a back above 18 if you're comfortable risking 17. if you want to risk a dollar, could be an interesting opportunity. If you want to be a bit more conservative, maybe you wait for a test of the trendline.

If it starts to bounce off of that, you could risk whatever that low is and try to play the bounce continuation. To me, it doesn't seem like there's an opportunity to actively trade it right now. now. if you're an investor, well investing, that's more of a dollar cost averaging over many years.

So I'm talking about like active trading I Want to be very clear on that. So for me, maybe if it breaks 18 like soon I could risk this recent low or if I think it's still coming down wait for this trend line bounce. But overall, as you can see, EMA's up and up and up and up. Uh, some people are talking about Ravine Ravian's looking good Ravens Breaking out: Um, I'm not going to chase it I don't like to chase new Highs but it's looking good.

If you're in it, ride the trend. Uh, someone's talking about Piton Piton Piton recently showing some weakness, putting in some higher low watch for this cup handle. breakout. looking bullish.

If you were to enter now your risk is 8.50 you're trading at 9.50 Are you okay risking 10? If you are, you're praying for the breakout and then from there maybe a return back up to like the just below 12 Zone interesting Teton Piton Sofi So if I looking strong I wouldn't Chase it. but if I'm in it I'd ride the momentum the last entry. by the way, I would do it. would be back here on Monday July 10th in at 8 30.

Obviously, at that point your risk would have been 786. Um, it's continuing up at this point I'd be moving my risk up to 877. so I'd be no longer risking money on the play. Uh, and I'd just be looking for a continuation on this breakout.

What's going on with Target Target Making some form of a Bounce has been flat for quite a while. It's up 0.7 doesn't seem to be doing anything too specific. A little bit of a breakout right here though, right there trying to break out of 135.50 If it does your evident. evidently your next Target is 138 and are you okay risking 128 for me? Three dollars of upside with obviously seven dollars a downside I don't like it so you would have to have a thesis or confidence that maybe it's going to go even higher than 138, potentially 147.

but with Target I don't know if I necessarily love that thesis just because of we know that the consumer spending is weakening, which could theoretically have like a sizable impact on target. Um, when you have consumer defensive plays, think of Walmart People are always going to buy groceries, but Target's not really known for groceries. Walmart will at least survive through that. Target is much more of just whatever you go there and you end up buying random things.

so if the average person is feeling a little bit of a financial pinch, that's definitely going to be felt by Target. So I'm not sure I'm in love with this play right now. Uh, just because if I'm targeting 138, I don't want to take on that much risk and then other than that, it's like how confident am I of hitting 147 it totally could I don't want to rate on your parade if you're some big Target bull. but I just I I Don't think that the odds are necessarily that favorable I Think there's easier plays out? There is my point.

Remember, it's all about Capital Efficiency Just because you kind of like a play, doesn't mean that you should put money into it. There might be better plays that you like more of. Uh, Carvana. Starting to show some weakness.

Um, there is a downside. Gap fill to 42-27 Um, maybe if we break below yesterday's low, that could be an entry. Your risk would probably be something off the intraday because other than that, you wouldn't want to play this. downside.

Gap Focus If you're using the daily chart, your risk is all the way up here at 57. So if you're looking at to risk whatever 12 I mean Obviously, if you're in at 45, you're just to be one to one. You should be targeting down here. so your thesis would have to be that it comes down more than this.

Gap fill If you're looking at the daily chart, if you're looking at the intraday chart. Oh Carvana, I'm not chasing it to the upside like I Don't think there's really much of a point to be entering in a bullish bet anymore. If you got into it early, ride the trend. like I mean look at these: EMAs They're favoring you.

They're favoring you. They're favoring you. Ride the trend as long as the trends intact. I Missed the trend.

So my only option if I'm gonna play is to play it on. the downfall because when Things Push like this, they commonly do not hold their value. So for me, since I missed the push to the upside I just have to be patient and wait for it to show legitimate weakness. And even if it does, I have to make sure that there's still a reasonable risk point for me.

Just because something is bullish or bearish doesn't mean you go bullish or bearish. You only do that if it's bullish or bearish in that direction if you also have a reasonable risk to reward setup. So just because I do think eventually Carvana Falls and it falls hard. It doesn't guarantee that I'm going to make money off of it because there's just not an opportunity to get in.

There's just not an opportunity to get in. Uh, is this still a duck shirt operation? You know it. We always got the Duck shirt. It's right here right behind me I Don't know if you can see it, but we're never far away from the Duck shirt.

Wait till the fiance finds out I'm gonna get married in it. That's gonna be the first major test on our our marriage. What is this? My 4590 back test Target Hit on ESF Opex A If Green Good day to stop trading Opex day If Green good day to stop trading Early decision time back Testing Breakdown: Clear Cell Clear here. Cell is done dip Zone Bears Must lose Four Five Seven two If we keep basing here for the next 30 minutes, suggest Upside Breaking 4603 Where are we at? Four Five Seven Two is what he's talking about.

Four Five Seven Two Oh, kind of the start. Yeah, the perfect start of this. Ripper So pre-market we just ripped. Now that we've actually started trading, we're kind of Dipping hard.

The question Is this where it all started at 8am this morning? How will the market react there even if we get there? Obviously, if we don't get there, that's inherently more bullish. But uh, interesting levels to watch. Without a doubt, interesting levels to watch. Maybe putting in a higher low? You kind of need that confirmation above Four Five four I think things get interesting above Four Five five setting up Four Five Six fifty.

but I'm not necessarily saying I'm bullish on the day I'm gonna go with whatever price action tells me Tesla Getting murked again I Have to admit these people who are allegedly like Guru traders who like are publicly posting that they were buying Tesla it like lots of Tesla in the 290s. they also had a bunch of calls that went completely bust and like they were just overly exuberant with no risk management. I mean it's comical to call yourself a guru there, like when you're wrong. You have to admit you're wrong and like cut your losses.

Uh, and they swung for the fence on a bad thesis and hey, so did I But when you're wrong, you just get out and in reality, you probably could have made all that money back and then some. On the downside, based on how much Tesla fell yesterday and it appears to maybe be doing that again. um, we called out 264 265 here yesterday I Personally didn't take the trade, but um I was like even when we were up in the mid 270s I was like dude My next downside: Target 264 265 and at the end of the day, that's exactly exactly where we were at. I'm curious if we're gonna break yesterday's low of 261.

Tesla higher high. but we now might have a lower low I'm the real test on Tesla and I don't even know if this will happen. it's down here at 241. There is still that additional downside Gap up to 235 I mean obviously the spy and the queues would have to take a considerable hit for it to get there, but I don't think it's necessarily like out of question.

oh man. imagine that gaffle. Imagine getting a put like the day like what if we vomited there today the like percentage getting that? that would be that. do you have any position or do you wait the first 40? um usually I wait the first like 15 or 30 minutes.

not really 45 like sometimes that ends up happening. Uh, but right now I have no position I am waiting today I am completely flat. No Futures positions. um, no options positions.

just my long-term account that I rarely check in on because it's my long-term account and I'll check on it in a couple decades. Uh, but for me right now, if I just tagged a fresh low, it's I'm actually kind of like hesitant like I said like I'm I'm almost thinking of today as like if I were a retired Trader and like it would have to be the most beautiful setup for me to be like I just literally cannot miss out on this I feel no particular pressure today to trade because I'm expecting a very whippy, confusing day with just all the amount of options that are expiring that it's a risk reward question and do I want to risk like messing up my week for like maybe negative reward. So I for me I'm not feeling any particular pressure if I see something I Love Yeah, of course I'll trade it but I'm basically looking for things to really be set up in my favor today. Imagine Elon really crap about his company and had puts um well he would have to publicly report that he would have to publicly report and that would be messed up.

There actually is a guy uh for like a medium-sized Bank who he disclosed that he bought puts on his own company and everyone's like dude, this is the worst look ever the worst look ever Disney 102105 calls So I actually like Disney right now as an investment just because once again, risk reward here. let's switch it to the weekly. I'm not saying like Disney's my favorite freaking company of all time and it deserves to go up. but if we were just looking at this chart, pretend you didn't know it was Disney There's just not much risk and there's quite a bit of reward.

So you're looking at the 10 20s 105 so you're thinking for October I'm not sure I'm in love with that because of the time frame like it's somewhat dependent on like when is Bob Iger gonna start announcing stuff or like what are they doing with ESPN what are they doing with streaming like that type of stuff. Obviously earnings are coming up so it could totally work. but I'm actually thinking about adding Disney to some sort of long-term account or at least a medium-term account where I'm I take out minimal risk if I get in at 86, I can risk six seven dollars and if Bob Iger pulls off the return, it could go above 150. It could go above 200.

Like to me, it's just pure risk reward right here. I have the opportunity to only risk seven dollars and I get potentially much more reward now instead of just arbitrarily buying. Yes, of course you could always wait for a larger time frame Confirmation: Um, why is this not working? You might want to wait for like a trendline breakout something like that, or maybe even if you want to look at this one so you could wait. but I'm actually kind of interested in getting in on Disney because I feel like I could get in with just out much risk and I like that and then if if I'm wrong, whatever I cut it.

I take a paper cut if I'm right the reward. It's an asymmetric return. So with your question Lenny Specifically, it's tough for me to say I like the October ones because I don't know if there's a catalyst that's going to cause it to go up between now and October. So I'm actually a little bit more interested in shares on that because it might take longer.

uh, spy being a little bit heavy. what were the Spy levels? to the downside, spy levels to the downside below 453, that's not the best. Hello, yeah, below 453 might be setting up another Tesla 452 or 451.50 Um, I'm dude, if the Spy is going to bounce, it needs to kind of get bouncing. Interesting I Was going to say we just returned to where this took off.

See, it's just a fake out. like they just get so many people in and then they smash them. Uh, brutal brutal, brutal brutal. and now we just punctured the low where this run at 8am started and look at that quick little liquidity grab.

They make a fresh load because they know a lot of people have stops right there and they just get below it. That low was four, five seven two fifty. They get as low as four Five Seven two. So they stop people out and then surprise, surprise, bounce it right off of that.

Now will this lead to a massive recovery bounce? I Have no idea, but this type of action is another reminder and I'm going to drill this into everyone's head. This is why just on breakdowns. right? on breakouts, you don't need to go short and long respectively. You have to make sure it's real.

We've been seeing way too many fake out breakdowns. fake out breakouts, all that stuff. If you like wanted to bet against the market, this breakdown wasn't the moment to do it. You're chasing it.

That could be the low of the day. You could literally be shorting it at the low of the day. Maybe it capitulates from there. That's an option, but why take on that risk? If you were really bearish? For whatever reason, your first opportunity was right here.

It vomited, it came up, was fighting at yesterday's close and then right here started to roll over. So you could have been in at 4, 5, 81 with a risk of four five eighty three. So you're risking two points and now you're already up 10. So it's you want.

Once again, if you have a thesis, you're looking for a pullback. That kind of goes against that. not the thesis, but the trend. So you take on Lower risk and then you're looking for the larger 10 Trend to play out.

now. obviously there are some times that buying the breakout works because it keeps ripping. There's sometimes that shorting. the breakdown works because it keeps capitulating.

That's totally possible. but most of the time if you're looking at it as a series of Trades of what's going to make you more successful over many trades. I would say even if you're bearish, you want the pullback or even if you're bullish, you want to pull back just to lower your risk. you should always be looking for a pullback.

This concept of like chasing, chasing chasing, just not good. And in fact I wouldn't want to short here just because I know 453 support I don't know 50 50 shot maybe breaks down. maybe it doesn't break down I Have no idea. If anything when I see weakness like this in the short term, my mind is like oh, is there like an opportunity to buy here Then I start looking at the overall trend and right now, the overall trend actually is bullish.

So because the market internals this green line is telling me to be bullish, no way would I be shorting. Let me check some of these other internals. Um, started off bullish, actually trending a little bit more neutral right now. Which makes sense because we've been selling hard from 9 37 until here and we know today's seasonality is bearish.

Let me check a couple other internals. Let me bring it up. Let me bring it up. that is Bearish.

That is bearish. Um, getting some mixed signals today. Team Getting some mixed signals. and when you have mixed signals, it's time to take a break and make yourself a mixed drink.

That's what we always say on this channel. It's been the going adage for probably a better part of a decade now. Here on the Matt core show is the Market's giving you mixed signals. You might as well go drink a mixed drink and stop trading because it's just not worth it.

And I get it. A lot of the straight Lace Steves in here are going to be saying it's 9 51. why would I have a mixed drink? You know what? It's better to drink at 9 51 and be an alcoholic than it is to be a degenerate Trader and lose money I I'd rather be keeping my money where it's at or making money and have to drink. you know, a White Russian um straight Lace Steves Sam's Samurais I Just needed a little bit of alliteration in there.

Uh, my name is Steve and I quit drinking this year, but did you quit chasing the market as well? Carvana is Carvana breaking down. Carvana is breaking down Carvana. Be careful. Looks like Carvana potential Gap will play 42-27 the high from Thursday July 18th a mixed creamer with my coffee.

Does that count? Yeah, sure. still technically mixing. Um I'm not playing this I guess I could have I don't know Chasey on the one minute not the most Chasey on uh I guess I would just risk if I took this I would be risking 49.25 but I'd be targeting more than the Gap though I'd be targeting more than 42.27 I Would actually hope that this is the start of the turn on. Carvana might be might not be.

It's been a tough trade I have no position but I just want to call out that Gap Bill to you. Uh, spy, not holding 453 Q's not holding 378. do we have the Cues levels? I Know there's some NASDAQ traders in here. Let me check out the daily Uh.

Cues does have a very small upside gaffle to 384 30. it's a 20 cent gap between yesterday's high and a Wednesday's low right now. Uh, the EMAs are going flat. Want to point that out? Sometimes that's indicative of choppiness, lack of a trend.

Uh, obviously it could also be the start of a trend reversal. Obviously, you need more data to be sure about that. But what I'd be looking at is we're at 378 if it craters through 376. I mean there's another easy Gap though to play right there at 370 420 and then below that there's another Gap fill at 368.63 So two downside: Gap those on the cues close by.

One upside: Gap fill. but right now the cues. it's an inside day. We're not breaking the previous day's High we're not breaking the previous day's low.

Same thing with the Spy Currently, it's an inside day, so even though on the one minute we're clearly trending down on the larger time frame, it's just it's not my vibe. Any opinion on Bud First earnings since boycott I mean socially I Don't see how it could be good. Um, but also, you guys just saw yesterday what happened to me trying to predict earnings I Try to predict Netflix I try to predict um Tesla and I got my ass handed to me. So this game I'm not a fundamental like reading the economy Trader Like I like to know that stuff because I like to know if it's aligning with my bias or if it's counter my bias.

but the way to make money trading like actually trading is just following the trend following the price action, risk, reward setups. Um I think when you do that, when you're playing earnings, you're flipping a quarter. It's 50 50. Well, you could give yourself a bit more of an edge by just properly reading price action.

So for me, the only Arena I could potentially compete in is trading swinging off of price action. I Just don't have this skill set to compete with the highest level of fundamental analysts out there. I'm not really a fundamental analyst like I know enough to be dangerous, but it's just not my forte at all. So my knee-jerk reaction is it can't be good for Bud Like just clearly the revenue has to take a hit.

I Don't think people are really backing off of it I Thought culturally it would kind of die out. It doesn't appear to be dying out, so that's my prediction is that it can't be good. but you also just saw my prediction on Tesla and Netflix And in reality, you could always trade right after the earnings. There's nothing saying you have to get in before unless you think there's going to be some like you would have to have a really good thesis of an ungodly Gap like we saw on Nvidia last earnings.

But beyond that, you can just be reactive. You don't have to be predictive. In fact, my my major wins come from being reactive, not predictive. Once in a while I get lucky and on something like whatever Nvidia I was predictive I had calls I made 25k.

it doesn't really matter I try to be predictive on Tesla and Netflix and that cost me 50 60k. So like if I look at my grouping of being predictive, it doesn't seem to be a net winner for me. it seems for me personally and maybe you're just way better at fundamental analysis that is completely. Fair There's a lot of people who are really good at it I'm just not one of them I Kind of know where my Niche is of.

I'm better at just reacting to the price action after these announcements opposed to trying to be predictive of where it's going. If you want a prediction I think Bud's going down. but dude, 50 50 shot. but shout out to Uh Sean for being a bot Fighter for eight months.

Much appreciated Netflix Oh Looking heavy 432 at yesterday's low Netflix might be vomiting dude that is. this could actually be if Netflix goes below 4 30 we could be talking about 411. Obviously Upside: Gap though to 470 but support support Netflix that's why I have the alert here. Wow, that is.

Look at the the four hour is turning red. The two hour is red, the 30 minute is down, 15 minute is down. the five minute is vomiting. the three minute not looking good.

the one minute. um for me to take this play like what I would have to see on Netflix because I care a lot about this 431 level I would actually love to see a break of it and then maybe some sort of lethargic bounce back up and then as that turns I would take my shot there. Uh, I wouldn't Chase it on the breakdown and if it just completely vomits okay I missed the play, that's fine. I've missed a lot of plays.

ooh Trump and Dad gifted five memberships That's so kind of you shout out Trump and Dad what's up brother? Um, that's what I'd be looking for if it just vomits. okay I miss it. Um, if it breaks liquidity to grab, bounces back up into the range of 432 gives me my opportunity. I would play it for like a week or two out trying to see if I can catch some form of a capitulation I would be hesitant to do it if the Spy is showing strength I would definitely be a little hesitant generally.

Netflix the cues and the Spy kind of roughly moving in the same direction I wouldn't expect Netflix to be absurdly weak. If the cues and the Spire are absurdly strong, it's possible that just wouldn't be my base case exception. Looks like we have Nvidia breaking down from some important levels as well. You do just heard that alert go off right here, breaking down below the low of yesterday and also the low of Friday July 14th.

There's a gap fill on this as well to 439 and if it keeps going from there, you could be talking about 400 flat. There's also this trend line in low fours, but uh, kind of maybe bending around. Yeah, Netflix and Nvidia they're looking weak for sure. Yep.

Netflix Just got the alert on Netflix and Nvidia would have been nice to get in at 9 47 on both of those, but I was trying to wait the first half hour of the day, which we're just at right now. So if I missed the play I miss the play. Uh, but Netflix and video looking weak. The cues.

How much of the cues is the cues? Are the cues weaker today? down? What's that? say? The queues or down point six percent intraday. How much did the Spy fall? 0.6.3 So the cues are weaker. So if you're bearish, it might be a little bit better to look at the cues than to look at anything else. One up gifted five Macros memberships.

That's so nice. Look at all these new we have. We have 10 new members in here. Uh, D-wac doing some crazy stuff too.

Once again, this is because of a update with the SEC um I believe of ruling kind of. They figured out some of their issues and now it's up 69. Wow Wow wow Wow. that is crazy.

That is crazy. Are any of you playing this upside Halt: Are any of you playing D-wac That is nuts. Let's get the exact news: Dwac News: Trump Media Merger Partner: Dwac settles with the SEC over fraud charges Digital World Acquisition Corp Remember, Dwac is a SPAC play. A special purpose acquisition company.

kind of a. It's a blank check. It's an entity that's a pile of cash that did all the paperwork to be traded and it's just another way for private companies to go public. Obviously you could.

IPO You could do an initial listing, a direct listing, or it became really popular in 2021 to do these back listings where like I said, it's a blank tech company and then they buy all or percentage of equity in a private company giving it access to the public market. True Social Trump's version of Twitter That's basically. they were looking at this back to bring them to the public markets, but it's just been having a large uphill battle with the SEC Digital World acquisition. Corp The company aiming to take Donald Trump's social media platform public settled fraud charges with the SEC.

Dwac was ordered to pay 18 million civil penalty fee in the event that it executes a final merger and takes Trump Media and Technology Group public. The settlement with Dwac is the latest in a growing list of legal problems that have ensnared Trump and his businesses. So if we take a look at Dwac on the daily chart because of the recent legal battles, it's been a massive downtrend. But as you can see on this announcement that some of them were settled not long ago, it was trading just below 13.

A little bit past that it was trading in the mid-12s now trading at 22. As I'm saying this, it is currently up 69. Obviously, this is just a positive Catalyst and people are most likely viewing it as maybe just maybe the D-wac True Soldier Truth Social Merger will actually happen bringing it to the public markets I Mean obviously there's some bullish optimism. Will it play out I Don't know.

Will it go the exact opposite way I don't know I That's what I'm coming to you I would love to get your thoughts and opinions on it. It's Dwac. Definitely upside halt for sure. Uh, actually.

in fact when it starts training again, just let me know and we no no need to really have a like halted ticker. Why is Rumble moving up 4.6 percent? Probably because the CEO yesterday tweeted at me. If I had to guess, my best guess is probably the world took notice that the CEO and I had a public Tweet back and forth I would assume probably adds a couple hundred Milli to their market cap. Honestly I don't know why more CEOs Don't tweet me.

uh Trump's got more failed businesses than anyone I can think of. Puts ready to go. Be careful I Mean there's if you love them or hate them. You can't deny that he has a large follower base and if the large follower base like can financially support them I Mean that could cause a lot of problems for the shorts Netflix Creating yeah Netflix right here I mean classic Breakdown: 431 I'd be targeting Well, there is a downside Gap fell first, but I'd really be targeting 411 but you maybe a little bit of a gap? Fill up or yeah, Downside: Gap fill up 421.

but the level of interest to me is for 11.50 All right, let's check in. Market Internals: Some are those are neutral, those are bearish. those are bearish. but those are bullish.

Team teamity, team team. I'm getting I'm getting some mixed signals, some mixed signals I don't I don't know if I could bring myself to really do much right now I'm just trying to be disciplined I'm trying to stick trying to stick with it I See things are vomiting right now, but I'm just not getting enough. Uh, confirmation seasonally today is bearish. Some of the New York Stock Exchange indicators internal indicators are bearish.

Some are bullish, some are neutral. Um, the daily chart. Where are we at? On the daily chart, we haven't really broken upwards or downwards, so that's a little bit neutral. I guess I could set an alert here just to know if we're going below.

yesterday's low 451.44 Someone just asked my levels on the spine Tesla If I was in the Spy right now like my fir, my closest Target to. The downside at this point would be the low 452s. like 452 10, 452, 15.. kind of.

Honestly, just where we hit for maybe a little bit lower would have been my target 452. We'll call it 10.. Um, on the cues, there's other targets, but that would be my closest downside Target My downside Target on the cues would have been 376.75 which we actually went below and we might be bouncing off of now. Um, and then if we crater through those.

obviously, we could always do additional targets. D Whacked open. That thing is a monster. A monster.

I Have no position on D-wac just to what is this? Oh I Forgot to sign up for uh, locals macross.locals.com pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Get my trades. Other Traders trades um, seasonality, memes, macross.locals.com pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. For one cup of coffee, you can hang out all month with me.

Honestly I think it's gonna get more exciting I'm attempting to wait on them too. Update it so it can be connected to Discord So I'm just waiting on some like technical things to get figured out. Technical things to get figured out. Spying cues making a little bit of a bounce D Whack at 24 up 81 percent 80.

that's crazy. Opened up today at 16. I Saw some guy on Twitter last night who he bought calls 18.5 for the strike and it cost him like four cents because it was a yellow at the time and now he's in the money. it'll be up thousands of percent thousands.

Let's see what's going on today. All right, we have that trend line. Yeah, that's not a good trend line. Maybe we have this trend line.

Maybe just maybe something like that. How does the Spy looking similar situation on the Spy recovery right out of those levels we talked about? well At Last I Have no idea I Sanity check Neutral, neutral, bullish seasonality. Thank you. That's a little bit more bearish.

That's a little bit more bearish too. Oh brother I don't know I'm tempted to see if this bounces what Market internals do I want to give more weight to mix bag makes bad situation spy might be double topping right at 4 53. I haven't done anything yet, haven't done anything yet. Patience: How are you guys feeling bullish or bearish? Rum finally on the move up.

15 cents up two percent I like that. Uh d-wac now kind of settling out at 24. how's Apple Apple looking weak from opening until now? Kind of went from 195 down to 193 Microsoft similar Tesla week Nvidia week but is it so weak I Want a piece of it Netflix Remember this is the like I said I don't do I sti