Foreign, foreign, Foreign. Hello hello hello hello hello hello Am I Coming through loud and clear. how's my hair Hair Check! This is the old classic Wednesday September 20th Hair Check and we're probably going to be doing it for the next couple hours because that's how important our hair is. Welcome back to another episode of The Mad Core Show where your Macors and I Am the show and together we pull this thing off.

It's going to be a Big Big Big A Huge. It's going to be a huge day in the stock market today because as you may know, as you may have heard me discuss at Nauseum over and over and over again. we have the Fomc decision at 2PM 2 p.m. So yes, yes, yes, you are getting a specialty stream today and actually I didn't think about that until I was saying it right now.

but um, we're starting early. Even so, you're kind of getting like a double specialty. A double specialty. Wednesday Has that ever even been done before? Is that even legal? I Mean you have to check the content creation laws to even know what we're pulling off right now.

Like what side of the law we're particularly on. But obviously we're starting early because similar to yesterday, I was sitting here I was bored and I figured hey, why not hang out with my digital internet friends And most importantly, I did have a couple questions to ask you and really, when I was starting yesterday, I was like oh, I'm going to ask them this and then I couldn't do it because the app didn't update. But anyway I'm gonna ask you now. um while we're just waiting for other people to come in yes, we're going to talk about the economy the Fomc we could talk about the recent IPO instacart trading under carp actually did.

It was all right. we'll talk about that. Um, we have some seasonality stuff. We have some cool videos we have.

we have things to get into. we have rants to pop off about. We have all that but before we get there I want to turn it over to you because I want a bit of your help I want a little bit of your help and it's exactly this: I'm in a fantasy football pick em League where you just need to pick the winner of the game. It has nothing to do with the points or anything like that, just literally who you think will win the football match and that's what I'm coming to all you for because I'm being I'm sick and tired of losing, absolutely sick and tired of losing.

so we're gonna have to go through I think 16 games and basically I'm just gonna go with whatever you guys tell me is the like obvious choice. So the very first one it is the Giants and the 49ers. Now I feel like that one's obviously going to be the 49ers but I guess I should ask you anyway. Are we Are we good? First matchup that I have to pick which is actually a Thursday night game.

so as in tomorrow Giants 49ers. Who do you have? Who do you have 49ers? 49ers? All right? Thank you Tom I Appreciate that, All right. Second one is the Falcons and the Lions Falcons and the Lions where are we going Falcons and the Lions Falcons and the Lions um I feel like this one's evidently the Falcons but I have to ask you the 59ers Juan Obviously I can't pick those guys. Second one: Falcons are we're going Falcon Lions oh more people are coming in lions uh oh oh SpaghettiOs oh SpaghettiOs All right I'm Tom I'm sorry but more people are going line so I'm gonna have to go lines on them.

Next one is the Bills and the commanders. Uh, the Washington team that I actually don't even know if I can say their old Team without getting completely canceled by cancel culture these days. So the the Bills versus the Commanders feels like that one should be the Bills. but Bills, we're going Bills on that one.

All right. Thank you thank you. We have the Broncos and the Dolphins I mean dude, the Dolphins have a healthy Tyree kill. um so Broncos and the Dolphins Broncos and the Dolphins Broncos and the Dolphins uh, where are we going on that one? Where are we gonna go? Where are we gonna go? Dolphins I Feels like that was evident.

this one's kind of interesting. Uh, actually, no, it's not at all. The Texans and the Jaguars I assume you guys are all going to say the Jaguars because I happen to have on my other fantasy team a Texan running back who somehow scores essentially negative points for me. so the Texans have been crappy.

Next up is the Colts and the Ravens where are you guys feeling on the Colts and the Ravens I'm assuming you're going Ravens but I should ask you regardless. I should ask you regardless. Colts versus Ravens Colts versus Ravens Roy is saying Ravens Ravens Ravens or even okay, next up. two Horrible.

this is going to be interesting. This is probably the the one where most people are gonna I assume there's gonna be fighting here. the Chargers versus the Vikings Char actually can I get chat up uh while we're doing this. so you guys hang out one second.

Well, while I'm doing it Chargers versus the Vikings and I will figure out how to get chat, adsource. uh YouTube chat. Nope, Nope, Nope. Nope.

There we go. All right. The next one is, where are we at? What did I say? Chargers versus Vikings How are you guys feeling on that one? I'm seeing Chargers Vikings Vikings Chargers Chargers Chargers all day Chargers All day Char I'm seeing more Chargers Come in Chargers All right, we'll go Chargers Uh, Pats Jets that's an interesting one. I mean the Pats rough start for them Owen two.

But then we have the Jets who is obviously one of the two very expensive jets that just got lost recently. So we have the Pats and the Jets What are you guys feeling on patch Jets just burn is saying Vikings And then someone else said football sucks and is woke well. this part of the show might not be particularly for you. I Mean it's still fun to see Pats Pats Pats Jets Have no QB Pats Patch Why are you guys so close on this one? Uh uh I Feel like more of you are saying Pat at this point? Yeah, we'll go Pats All right Saints and Packers That's actually going to be a good game Saints and Packers is going to be a close game Saints and Packers Saints versus Packers Well, veldy, we can't go with Lakers on this particular one.

but I have been watching that. Um, the Mac Show All right Saints Saints All right, we're seeing more Saints in here. Titans versus Browns Titans versus Browns I Believe, statistically the Browns have a slight edge here. Um, but maybe you guys are a little bit more informed than I am.

So the old Titans versus the Browns Honestly, do either of those teams have like massive standout players? Titans Titans Browns Brown You guys are split on this one too by Browns doesn't mean oh uh, the Titans because the Browns lost chubs, right? So we'll have to go titans on that one. Next one: Panthers versus the Seahawks I'm pretty sure you guys are going to say the Seahawks but I'll I'll ask you anyway. Uh Chubbs is dead bro. dude.

that video we watched yesterday of his leg just getting absolutely demolished it. It was upsetting. Yeah. Seahawks Um, next one's pretty easy too.

Bears versus Chiefs I'm assuming you guys are gonna all go Chiefs I mean the Chiefs are favored by 12 and a half that one Whatever next one is Cowboys and the Cardinals Cowboys right? The Cowboys have been crushing it. Uh, Chiefs was an easy one over the Bears and I feel like the Cowboys are an easy one over the Cardinals like we're not. Am I losing my mind? or are we good on the Cowboys. The boys, the boys, the boys, the boys.

All right. this one should be a good one. What about the Raiders and the Steelers Raiders versus Steelers Raiders versus Steelers Are you picking against their spread? No, it's just a pick em League that I'm in where I just need to pick the winner of the game so we're not playing the spreader or anything. literally just the winner of the game.

Um, and the next one up is the Steelers Raiders Steelers Steelers Steelers Raiders toss-ups steal Raiders Raiders Raiders Ooh you guys are pretty 50. 50 on this one. Uh, who depends on who cheats more? Well, Raiders are favored by two and a half. so where are we at on that? Uh, someone just said 20 on Iowa against PSU Kim Stop it.

Stop it. Stop it. Stop it. We all know that PSU is gonna spank Iowa Steel Steel City.

Uh, we'll just go with the PA team and then the next one is the Eagles and the Buccaneers. Now obviously I'm biased towards the Eagles. Um, but unless you guys are like overwhelmingly going for the Buccaneers I'm gonna pick the Eagles uh uh. you should mention who's home and who's away, it's in Nevada the Steelers pit.

The Steelers Vegas game is in Nevada as the over unders 43 both are one and one. um Vegas we all live in Florida box. Wait, you guys are going with the Bucks Really You? I mean have you just have you seen how good Jalen hurts is like? So just I shave my balls for this bucks Raiders All right you guys are getting me to switch over to Raiders I'm going with the Eagles and then the very final one is the Bengals and the Rams. Now before you cast your your own opinion for this final one, please understand that the Bengals are a team I Recognize did very, very well last year.

I Understand that Joe Burrow crushed it I Understand Every female watching this show wants Joe burrow to be successful I I Recognize this success and that's exactly why I'm both of my other fantasy teams like the actual like where you select players Joe Burrows My quarterback on both on both on both on both and he has been severely underperforming Joe Burrow is breaking my heart more yeah he has been sucking I don't know what to do So like I want to pick him because I'm fit thinking to myself okay like he's really messed up two games so like it's time for him to bounce back. it's time for him to earn his pay. He's getting like what 50 mil, 45 mil? Something like that he's getting paid a ton of money and I just he's owing to the Bengals are on two. his fantasy points are trash so like do we think he's gonna bounce back against the Rams Uh, like he has to bounce back right? Bengals won't lose three in a row? that's what.

I'm thinking like they do really have like ah I don't know I don't know he injured his right calf as well. Yeah so they were talking about like how he might have to sit. ah this one All right I'm gonna go with the Rams I'm going with the Rams I'm saving all the picks I think thank you thank you thank you All 16 of my picks are in. that was the Pick Em League um I don't know is he playing this week? I Can check it out.

Uh here we can hide that for a second. Uh ESPN fantasy. Let's see if he's questionable or not. Uh, dude.

I got I'm just getting spanked. It's not. It's not looking good for me. Yeah, he's questionable right now.

Uh, questionable questionable. Brew is dealing with a calf injury and is iffy to play in week three. As a result, his cap is also probably partly responsible for his poor play through two weeks. bro.

can be a game time call against the Rams and it's a Monday night game making decisions even more complicated. Managers will want to keep a close eye on the situation. As Sunday Monday approaches, we can start making a backup plan if he can't go. Jake Browning would likely start if burro is out.

so I need to make a decision if I'm actually gonna play who Do I have I have Russell Wilson who actually scored a decent amount of points last week so I could switch them out in the one league for Russell Wilson and then in the other League I would have to switch them out for Kirk Cousins who actually also really performed last week. So ah, I'm gonna need to talk to doctor people and to better understand if this guy is going to play or not. who does Denver play Denver Denver Denver is playing I just had that Denver's playing the Dolphins so the Dolphins are gonna win but who knows I mean he still might score enough points and then Kirk Cousins the Vikings are playing the Chargers. Um, even though they've been losing, Kirk Cousins is still putting up some pretty solid points.

Oh, decisions, decisions, decisions. But my, my quarterback is this. he's not performing. He's not performing where he needs to be performing.

So oops, Wait, what just happened? I've now only dolphins. All right. Well anyway, that's why I Wanted to start early I appreciate all the help. just um.

obviously when we together collectively win this. Pick Em League Um, we can celebrate. We'll have a big old party to celebrate our joint success across the board. Um, now.

obviously today is a big day. Fomc day. the decision comes out at 2 pm. ET Jerome Powell will be speaking at 2 30 so set an alarm, mark your calendar, or just be here because I will be streaming the whole event.

But what you need to know is, as of now, there's roughly a 99 99 99 chance that there's going to be no change to the federal fund rate. No increase, no decrease, just keeping it flat. Which most likely means that's what's going to happen. So the thing that's really going to be moving the market is obviously the SCP the summary of Economic projections.

This is more of a qualitative report of like what's going on in all the different from Fed members of if they think we're going up or down we get all those dot plots that sometimes look like blue little Christmas trees. So that comes out every other Fomc meeting and this happens to be one of those every other one. So we're gonna get that report that can move the market and then on top of it obviously. Jerome Powell The Chairman of the FED whatever his commentary is, and more importantly, how the market interprets his commentary, Are they going to view it as being hawkish? Are they going to view it as being dovish and then really what you need to know if you didn't I don't know how many of you guys caught the update video.

if you didn't, you're fired. But anyway. Uh, in the update video last night I Went through some facts, stats and figures of the 10 most recent Fomc decision days and basically it's 50 50. it's five green days, Five red days.

The day before we're like free forward green and then six were red. Basically there's no clear Edge it was roughly around 50 50. the only Edge I found and this one's a little bit so suspect depending on how you measure it. but I would argue that there was with about a 70 accuracy over the last 10.

Whatever. The first major move is from the markets reaction at 2 pm. Generally it's like switched and reversed by the end of the day, but once again, not even that is technically close to 100. So I just wanted to share that a lot of today, historically over the last 10 has been pretty much flipping a coin.

so I wouldn't necessarily be betting the farm with like I don't know unless hey, if you want to do it I Wish you the best of luck. I'm not going to stop you from being a degenerate, but in terms of the odds and the statistics, you're flipping a quarter. You're essentially flipping a quarter. The only thing that I found of note was the fact that that first major move is common commonly reverted by the end of the day.

but as I alluded to before, even that's a bit suspicious because it depends on how you measure it. like what are you actually calling the first move? Are you using the first minute or using the first five minutes The first ten minutes. Like blah blah blah so that even itself gets a little bit suspect to say the least. So big day in the markets that will lead to a specialty stream.

The decision comes out at 2 p.m so I'll probably start streaming at like 145 150 later on today. So yes, you are all going to get a specialty stream. Obviously, with that being said, make sure you have on your notifications whether you're watching on rumble or YouTube like and Sub on both. but get your notifications on because I wouldn't want you to miss a minute of class.

Matt I've missed you their trade baby. Just the other day we were talking about how we all had a trade baby size hole in our heart and we were greatly greatly missing you. So I'm I'm happy you're back here and honestly it just shows that the market Gods above they are listening to our prayers because the result there was something a little missing in here. I Think we could all admit there was just something a little bit off.

but the fact that you're in here, you're kind of the glue that keeps the family together. You keep us grounded. So not only are you a large anchor, but you're kind of a very almost vibrant white Elmer's Glue type of anchor. So uh, very much appreciate you and your return.

And I know there's a lot of people whose anxiety is finally waning and we could, just you know, take a big breath, take a big breath, relax, recuperate. kind of. get our mindset. now.

you guys might be thinking to yourself, why am I so jacked up? How am I Already this awake at 8 50 in the morning folks? That's because I Get up at the crack of dawn with the farmers, but instead of feeding a bunch of animals and tending to all my land I tend to the stair stepper, look at me. I I am basically sculpted out of a rock found on Mount Olympus and the only way you get a body like this is following a very, very strict nutrition and workout regimen that a lot of people would pay millions of dollars per day to be on the regimen that I'm on. But I'm gonna give it to you all for free. So make sure you are absolutely consuming copious amounts of caffeine.

You know what burns off extra calories is your heart rate being double the legal limit? So all day every day what I need you to have in your hand is just espresso laced with Red Bull and put some others maybe B12 in there a little vitamin D Vitamin D No like I hear that's healthy. But on top of that, every time you think about how just maybe your life is stressful, you've made some bad decisions. You just maybe you're in a fight whenever there's just not a good thing. Like whenever there's a a neutral to negative thought coming across your mind.

just go. Crush 150 flights on the stair stepper. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. And what's interesting about this particular technique is if you have severe I don't know, anger, sadness, anxiety, depression, whatever it is that actually is going to make you even more fit because you're going to have more negative thoughts which is going to force you to go back on the stair stepper.

And when you're on the stair stepper, it's obviously so crappy and shitty that you're not thinking about anything else. which I would say across the board is the way to do it. The way to Do it. How much ice cream did you eat last night? I ate about a third of a gallon of a Reese's dark chocolate ice cream.

10 out of 10? would recommend. that's that's the final little. like the cherry on top of my particular nutrition workout guide is: I would say a roughly a solid one-third one-fourth to one-third of a gallon of ice cream which is an odd decision for late September but I've just I've just been having a hank ring for ice cream so I I crushed it last night. What was I want I don't know what I was watching when I was eating it but I was just housing that oh so my fiance.

We've talked a lot about her and obviously all of her like miscomings. um but I found something out about her. Uh, that safe to say made me extremely frustrated. almost made me want to call everything else off.

Um, this has nothing to do with the market, so if you want to know about the market, you're going to have to wait till I'm done with this story. But I don't know how many of you guys you get ice cream? Whether it's a pint or a gallon, you transfer it into your bowl. Now do you guys go out of your way to just start eating it right away? Or are you more of an adult with a developed palette? And you take your spoon and you mash it up to almost turn it into a soft serve because for the years that I've been in this relationship, she's always been making fun of me. that I do what is right and I mash up my ice cream because I'm not a neanderthal I'm not a caveman I'm not a person with a smooth brain I obviously know how to improve the dessert in front of me to bring it from a top tier level to a super top tier level and I was just curious if this was like a me thing or if you guys do it as well.

do you mash it all exactly Rory knows what's up. Whoa, Whoa. I just chew my ice cream. What? Uh, I like to let it sit on the counter for a bit and so that's what I'm saying.

You gotta mash it up a bit. It's basically gelato. No gelato is wannabe. July Everyone knows gelato was wannabe ice cream.

It wishes it had some solid Dairy goodness in there, but it doesn't I match. It makes it way better. Oh thank you thank you thank you thank you. I'm gonna screenshot some of this and send it on over to the fiance just to prove that she's wrong, but that's the nastiest thing I've seen people put ice cream.

oh and they're cereal instant. Eat it out of the carton. well I Think you might have bigger issues to tackle than just than just getting your ice cream to the Quality level. I Do want to clarify that if I've ever served ice cream at a restaurant I don't do it.

but that's more of a time thing because like you have to put in real effort to mashing up your ice cream. But anyway, just wanted to share all that and I guess I can see that some of the crowd is getting a little bit angsty that we're not talking about the market. So fine. Fine, fine.

the Fun's over. I Guess class has to start. Now this is the people who want me to go like right into the market stuff. I Feel like are the same people that in school like when everyone was trying to pull a fast one on The Substitute Teacher There was that one student who's like we don't actually do it that way and then like it was always fun to pull a fast one on the substitute teachers and most of the time you could get your whole class to go along with it like everyone knew the vibe.

but then the people in here are all like nah man. we got to talk about the market and we got to talk about the market now. but whatever. if that's what you want to do, this is as much your show as it is mine.

so we can get right into it. Let's talk, let's chat actually before we. Chit Chat Chit Chat Patty Whack. Give a dog a bone.

whatever that is, sign up for Street Beats awesome. It's a robo. Advisor does not accept payment for order flow. Kickback Yes, you can buy and sell stock the way you normally would, but on top of it, they have Ai trading co-pilots.

They have some that are pre-built such as the Bond ladder, such as an AI generative thing, such as the top government contracts such as what politicians are buying and selling so they have some pre-built ones, but you could also build your own. and I've shown it here before. Maybe we'll make one today, but anyway, pinned to the top of Chat in the description of the video, Streepy is the sponsor of today's stream. Show them a bit of love when you do it.

You're going to get a 30-day free trial if you use the code Matt M-a-t-t for simple letters that will give you a free 30-day trial so no harm, no foul. Uh, you can get it from the Apple App Store You could get it from the Google Play Store You can get the QR code. you can click on the link, do whatever you want, but when you're downloading it on the very first page, put in the code Matt M-a-t-t and that way you get you a one month free trial. so it literally isn't gonna risk like you're not risking anything so just wanted to shout out to them and obviously appreciate them.

Uh, sponsoring today's stream Soccer features rise ahead of Fed decision as oil prices decline so the market is pippity popping right now. here's a look at the Teachers Market. Yesterday was a pretty like Obama day up until the midday and then it just kind of started to rip right here. So hopefully you got some of this action obviously.

I was able to use it if you were watching the stream at all. I was able to take advantage of this to get funded by TOP Step So I got the email I don't know who it was in here. my apologies. Uh, your name is escaping me at the moment, but someone told me like no stop here, the commissions are counted and I just want to give a round of applause and a little bit of acknowledgment to that particular chat participant Because yes, the I got funded.

They sent me the email and they're like you're a funded Trader So I'm stoked about that. But now I'm even more confused because I went to go log into the Prop account today and it I couldn't log in. so apparently it's like a different account to trade the actual money than to do the challenge. and I'm just I'm a little confused and I'm not here saying I'm the smartest person.

but for anyone who's been funded by whatever TOP Step or any other Prop account, how do you actually start trading the real money Now his name was Nathan Nathan If you're in here, brother or any other people who are just more informed about this stuff than I am uh I would love to get your I pick your brain a little bit about what's going on. Uh, because I I don't I can't like sign into rhythmic. they'll send you information on that. Okay, so I just have to wait.

Does it take like a day or two? It'll come around noon today. Oh okay, okay. his name was Robert Paulson um okay, interesting did you sign the deal contracts? They sent me, uh, an email to activate my Express funded thing Josh like I got an email from my Express funded account and I had to activate it and I had to pay like a hundred fifty dollar fee or something like I paid some sort of activation fee. Is that like what I had to do or is the deal contract a completely different thing and also like why wouldn't they send me an email that just like explicitly States All this or maybe they did and maybe I just didn't read all my emails which is also at this point a very very fair argument.

Um so Josh I'm looking forward to your answer. but anyway, yeah, successfully pop like I'm now a funded prop account Trader just to see if I could do the challenge and it was a fun one. I implore all of you guys to check it out. But anyway, on this sell-off yesterday, uh, I was able to catch a decent size of the movement and that was enough to push me over the profit line that I need.

so that got funded bounced back in these latter half of the day and the bounce was actually large enough. Then it started to get a little bit suspect. a little bit suspect because I had these two call outs, the zero DT trade on the cues right here was real close. So for Max profit I needed the cues to be below 370 and if you take a little look you see at this it ended at 369.87 so at this point it was above 370.

I was like ah, what's going on and then it started to revert right back up. I was in the final like five ten minutes and it was right at that level that I really really cared about but in the last second and ended up obviously coming down so ended up being a nice winner there. and then the the Spy call out was I mean we weren't anywhere really close to 444. so what was that that was? Tuesday So thus far on the week, three for three, three for three batting a thousand.

so three for three crushing it thus far. Uh, obviously to do the all of these trades you would have only needed like at Max just under 200 in your account and that one would have made you ten. That one would have made you 16. the other one was 15.

So what's that? 31 41 So you'd have made 41 dollars. Uh, for every two hundred dollars which is about a 22 23 return in two days. Honestly, pretty solid. Pretty solid.

Pretty solid. Pretty solid. So um, just a little bit of an update there. but right now everyone's paying attention now.

All right. I Don't know if I'm particularly have degenerates in the audience right now or if I have people about like more serious, but I'll just share this thought and opinion if you want to be a degenerate I Wish you the best of luck I Hope you crush it I Hope you make a lot of money, but just understand the odds are against you and why I'm bringing this up is right now. It's effectively a flip of a coin if you YOLO into a big position right now. 50 50 shot of at the end of the day you being very right or very wrong.

so I hope you're on the right side of it. There is not what happened Matt did you see what happened to bit boys Channel no but we'll cover that in a second. Uh, why not? Let's always why not get into drama I Just want to talk about today for like a quick second here of How It's about 50 50. if you're on the right side of it, you can make a lot of: money, but obviously if you're on the wrong side, you could get completely destroyed.

Be careful with Zero Dtes, just because even if you're quote unquote right, you're going to be fighting. Theta Decay Who knows what's going to be going on with volatility. there's big gaps. to the upside, big gaps to the bottom side.

As you can see yesterday, we almost had a breakdown on the Spy, but it saved itself. and then if you look at the cues, uh, gap down. but it's fighting back up. So this is just a big decision.

Damn. I Don't know if there's really a point in being predictive when you can make a lot of money just being reactive, wait for the trend to develop, and if if you're not really necessarily feeling like like that gambling itch to do anything, it's okay to sit on your hands all day today and then just wait and see how things play out tomorrow. So just wanted to share that thought. But right now, um, I don't think there's any decent argument of who has the upper hand in the current situation.

I Very much believe we're in a situation where it's probably best to just sit back, relax, and watch to see which way everything's going. But anyway, before we get into all that, I do want to keep you updated in the prize of the situation of the potential government shutdown which could be going on this month. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has a full plate in coming weeks. Between a possible government shutdown and a trip to China Our next guest says: if we have a government shutdown, this is from the presidency leader only have themselves to blame.

He also questions why so many U.S officials need to travel to China at the expense of U.S Taxpayers join us now Republican Senator Rick Scott He's a member of the budget committee and and that goes against what I'm what I've been reading and hearing about Senator I know you've seen the the same things. Why do you say that the shutdown should be put at the door of Majority Leader in the President? When most people say that speaker McCarthy has 12 or 13 guys on the far right that he just can't control? and I mean we see that it might come to a head at some point as they try to press pass some of these stop gaps. Yeah, well. first, Joe We shouldn't be doing this in September We should be doing this in the summer.

Uh, we ought to be doing these budgets early. We don't We don't actually have uh budgets yet. Here's my what: I'm working on with the house. I've been working with the Freedom Caucus in the House.

Absolutely. They're absolutely committed to not having this government shut down and do what they promised the American public is get inflation down interest rates down by balancing the budget. so rates family and they're working on securing the Border in the Senate What Republicans are working on here is a bill that would never have. We would never shut down government again.

It would prevent government shutdowns. We'll have a continuing resolution. It's not the perfect solution, but we ought to stop this idea that we're going to see government shutdowns. We should never see government shutdowns again.

Hey Senator I'm sorry just to clarify on this. That sounds like breaking news. If the House Freedom Caucus is saying they're making sure they're not going to shut things down, is that the case because the last I read There were 10 House Republicans Who would not go along with this? who would shut down the government? and I think the the speaker can only lose five is is that the difference between the House Freedom Caucus and some of the others that are out there. What explain that because the latest we've heard is that it's very likely that you see a shutdown.

Well, first of all, I don't I Don't think we're gonna have a government shutdown. I Think what's happening is the Freedom Caucus is saying. You know we committed to the numbers to balance our you know, to start the process, the balance their budget. We need to follow through on those numbers and also secure the borders.

So he's kind of looking conversation to the camera last night like he's not the members and others. Uh, Republicans I've been talking to the house that does these things start raining in. The wasteful spending makes you wonder if he's a question that's for sure And secure a border and I believe it's going to happen, Believes it's going to happen. So there's an update from the Freedom Caucus basically saying hey, we're not going for the shutdown, but that's also just reiterating echoing the words of McCarthy the Speaker of the House who's basically saying the same thing he's like, hey, we don't want it's going to be an embarrassment.

So a little update there. But let's get back into the specific Market actions for today. So early this morning we got the UK core Uh, Consumer Price Index And this is interesting because there's a good chance it forces the Boe the bank of England That's like the way we have our fed that's what theirs is called. that's their Central Bank uh Bank of England rate like pause back on the table after inflation surprise.

prior to the August Consumer Price Index reading on Wednesday, the market was pricing in an 80 chance that the central bank would hike interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday to 5.5 But see, there's CPI Their inflation reading came in a tenth of a point less. Oh, their inflation was cool. So now, instead of continuing to jack it up, they also might go flat, so just wanted to share that, but obviously bringing it back to the U.S Uh, 10 30 this morning we're going to get crude oil. inventories.

should be interesting just because oil has been ripping. Taking a little bit of a breather now. but really, ever since late June oil has been ripping ripping ripping. Um I Don't see this really discussed that much.

but I do want to point out that obviously the longer oil holds at these high values or keeps trending to the upside that obviously would in my opinion be a bullish. Tailwind for Ev plays such as Tesla Obviously as gas and that type of stuff becomes more expensive I think people get a little bit more interested in EV So I want to bring that to your attention at 2PM we're going to get the Fomc decision and also the Sap the summary of economic projections and then at 230 Jerome Powell will be speaking Yes, I will be doing a specialty stream for all of that today, starting probably at like 145 150. Fed set to pause rate hikes like I said 99 chance that we are not getting a rate hike or cut, we're just staying at 5.25 but don't count out another increase. There's about a 30 35 chance in the November meeting that we get another rate hike, but obviously that's going to be very dependent on data.

That's the thing that the FED keeps telling us over and over again. But basically what their mean is tell us the new CPI report, The new Pce report, The new PPI report, The new retail sales. The new unemployment report. They want all that new data between now and early November to make that next November decision.

So I wouldn't say that the confidence in the current percentage chance of a rate hike in November is that high in that number. Whatever. if the percentage is high or low, I Would say the confidence in that being the accurate number is pretty slim just because we have so many things that are going to happen between now and then. Uh uh.

do you think it's still willing to beat down growth to get inflation lower? Yes, it's more likely that they called rates here or maybe one more reunite as opposed to go ever higher. This was the FED trying to back into the shrubs and disappear. The massive policy tightening that we've had is going to have an effect on the economy. It's just taking longer to percolate than people thought.

The FED absolutely has more ammunition in its tool belt to continue to raise rates closer to that six percent. Target We were already wrong. Once on inflation, with the promise of transitory, they can't be wrong. Again, the Fed's getting its way here.

It's it's removing some of the demand, some of that froth, and yet, um, you know, not crushing the economy. But there is this risk. This risk is still out there that maybe inflation starts to pick up again. I Think where the market of maybe a little bit off base is to think that the Fed's gonna ease a lot in 2024.

Can the FED be cutting rates next year if the headline figure is still running? Uh, really north of three percent north of four percent? The services prices are going to be a concern for the the SAG strike has a lot of spillover effects. We've got the UAW. You could see more headwinds on that. They're going to have to see unemployment go up.

They may actually tip the economy into recession first before they start cutting rates. The good news: we've gotten on in two days. the FED to actually get to that two percent. Target This is critical.

Suddenly the data is not a reliable forward-looking indicator. They're Flying Blind and and Bob I would say there's data depends you've ever seen. Oh I Thought that was interesting the way they cut it up. Just a couple people's opinion who are allegedly informed and are some fancy schmancy bigwigs.

Uh, on that though. I Do want to remind you that key key thing, the concept of the market popping when we start doing rate Cuts is a fallacy if you look at all the initial rate Cuts like when they're like, all right, we're going to start cutting rates from the 1960s until now. In all of those situations, there's a series double digit drop in the market before a bottom and then we started going up. So um, I'm sure I'm gonna have to remind you of this in 2024 when they potentially start doing this.

But please do not think that as soon as they announce rate cuts that it's time to just buy everything and anything again. the Market's gonna rip. That's just historically not how it plays out. Let's just talk about this.

Even if they're hawkish in their commentary, you don't really think that they should or very likely will raise rates again. Is that right? Well, there's certainly a lot of uncertainties with the strike. By the way, this is Jeremy was it steagall? Uh I think he's a professor for more and pretty I Don't know, he's like he. He is pretty well known in the media landscape.

I Wouldn't say all these call outs are perfect, but I would say he's a pretty informed dude with, uh, shutdown of the government and actually political calculations. Uh, you know, is one one increase or two increases? Is that the straw? That's going to break the camel's back? Um, uh, you know. I I I I Really think that the political calculus is that they should not raise it again? I Mean if you'd ask the American public I think today, the average worker uh, do you want to squeeze a point or two off of super core inflation? You know, Which is what uh Jay Paul looks at now over the next two years? Or do you want a million and a half? Remember inflation and then you have core which is not food, not energy. Super Court is not food, not energy, not shelter.

And the reason they're including shelter there is because shelter's been actually particularly sticky. So that kind of leads the Major Other sector that maybe they think they could chip away at is the services sector. So just to get into the the little nuanced detail of what's going on of the different aspects of inflation, to two million more unemployed I Think they would say Hey Listen yeah I I don't want any recession, so you know, but they're going to talk. They have to talk hawkish being being the central bank I Think you're going to see The Dot Plot being hawkish I think they're going to push those dollars Really is going to happen.

People think oh, they have an idea about you know what the economy is going to look like in 2024? They really, really don't But you know, given the strength of the economy and that's what the stock market loves, you know that's why even when we have a slightly hotter PP High slightly higher hotter CPI If we got good uh, you know real economic data in there. You see the stock market rally and that's why I Think we could still have a firm. not a surging, but a firm. the equity Market through the end of the year.

If if there are some people who think that they're going to have to cut rates sooner rather than later later this year, early next year. If that's the case though, versus the nine or ten months that most people are anticipating, these rates will stay at these levels. It's going to be because something bad happened. The economy looks worse than anticipated.

There's a credit problem. something blows up in the banking system. Unemployment drops more rapidly. Would you agree with that assessment? At least that if we get lower rates sooner, it's not going to be because it's a good scenario.

Uh, absolutely. The only really. I think the only thing really push them to lower rates is that unemployment rate going up a big slowing in an employment picture you know, heading into an election year. Wow.

I Mean think about the impact of a recession and what's going to happen politically in 2024. I mean that that has to come front and center. And and by the way, as we all know, the FED has a dual mandate. It has a mandate for employment and inflation and one is not above the other.

And that's in contrast to most other central banks where they only have that inflation mandate so you know, but people can definitely give it. Most Fed heads will get around that by saying yes. we may have too many bad heads, but if you don't take care of the food has inflation management then your second mandate can't be taken care of either. That that's a it's it goes.

Yes, that's what's Powell is saying. but it's a question of time. Do you want to, you know, do you really want to slam the economy to get that core rate down to two really quickly? it's going to go down to two. Yeah.

so if it takes another six months, another year, uh, you know again, it's all a matter of trade-offs And by the way, you know, as we all know, you know, are they going to get it all the way down to two? You know there's so much debate about, uh, even before, uh, the recent inflation about given the low interest rates that we've had you, you may want in a three percent inflation Target Now that's not going to be mentioned by power. I Absolutely abhor how they're trying to get this concept into the public discussion of like no, no, no, we should just raise our inflation target folks. The connection there of like why particularly pisses me off is because we know that that just accelerating the devaluation of our dollar. So whenever you're seeing those charts that are just dying off and they're like this is what your dollar can buy you now or we're seeing like the hyper growth and the cost of like a house or even the ratio of the big thing is the ratio of what percentage of the average income is being spent on housing.

Like the percentages are getting worse. So like when we hear all these Boomers popping off of like by the time I was 16, I already had four houses I graduated college and I had 18 kids. It we just live in a different world I Was watching this fascinating breakdown of the percentages that we spend. So if you look at the 1980s 1990s 1930s, roughly about 18 of the average income was either spent on housing as a non-year mortgage or on your rent.

Right now, we're above 30. So it's not really the magnitude that I think is the biggest Focus Because yes, we are in a forever expanding credit economy. That is how our economy. Works Yes, everything's going to go up in price.

So when you hear these Boomers talking about like gosh, it's cheaper Candy is true. Everything Well of course it was. That's just them not understanding the economy. What matters is the ratios.

The you want to look at the average income and compare that average income to a lot of Necessities in this world and you're going to realize that a lot of the pricing of everything else is eating up as in we have a mismatch between wage growth and the inflation of all other things that most people are going to end up buying. and this concept of I I Remember, um, am I going to go off on too much of a rent here? Probably I'll make it really quick I Remember when I like was first get my first internship so I must have been like 19 and my dad was yelling at me because um, uh, he I was spending too much of my paycheck on rent and it just so happened that I was like in LA So of course it was expensive and he's like, well, yeah, like the old adage is like three days work worth of work should be paying me right I was like that's actually impossible. That's like actually truly impossible to pull off right now. And what was funny was I said that about a decade ago and I didn't know that I was saying it when it was good.

back then, it's actually relatively even worse. Now of the percentage of the average paycheck that people are spending, it's just going up leaving less less left over money. But then it's also crazy because we're getting into a situation where not even on a government level are we at record levels of debt 33 trillion? We're gonna hit 50 trillion between the before the year 2030. But if we look at the average consumer, we're at record levels of credit card debt.

And also the devious thing here is those interest payments on credit card are now also at record highs. So we just have a lot of things coming to a head. And like, if you want to be a real dick about it, you could bring up how student loan repayments are about to restart. There's so many things that are like happening in the background and I get particularly frustrated and hey, I'm not a guy who's as old as time with a fancy tie on with a fancy pedigree on my wall.

No. I'm a person who bought a camera and I yell at a camera and that's my job. So I'm not saying I'm the person here that knows like every aspect of monetary policy in the economy. No no no no no no I read things I think about things and then I come here to talk about you I look at this as like a little pow-wow where we all like just talk about what the average person is up to I'm not preaching from a Mountaintop of like absurd knowledge but I have the ability to look at basic numbers and then when I hear this type of stuff of like yeah, maybe we should just go to three percent maybe we should just start paying off everything for everyone.

maybe we should accelerate the devaluation of the dollar like just absurd things and then it hit me that this is probably always gone on. I I truly believe the more that I think about this that in the history of all governments, but particularly in the US government I think this type of like smoke and mirrors, this sleight of hand has always gone on. but the difference now is technology and there's more people communicating. So basically when anything happens, people can comment on it in real time, thus really accelerating the propagation of information, knowledge and opinions.

So I think we're getting into an age of the average person if they so choose is more informed and then they could call out bullshit. Well back in the day like what there was a super big lag I mean obviously sometimes like it was in the newspaper, you got that lately there was just a massive massive lag to it. But now we know about things all the time almost instantly, effectively instantly and now you can like find out you can read people's whatever you could read about it on. Reddit You could read their subjects.

You could watch videos like for the people who want to learn and try to figure out like more of how this system is like actually operating. there's a lot more knowledge out there that's a lot more accessible, more than it's ever been. And I think that in a weird way has to play into the discontent of the average person like I truly believe and who knows, maybe this is the first life that I've lived. at least that I know of.

um and then I think to myself I'm like okay, like the way I feel at 30 is that the way how like in all generations people have felt at 30? But I would argue from a financial standpoint. Uh, it's actually a lot more difficult to pull things off right now than it has been now. I'm not necessarily arguing that this is collectively the worst time financially. I Think it's tough, but like if we look at the progress of Technology of Medicine of the access and information, there's a lot of quality things about being like right here right now.

So I'm not saying that it's uh, like bad. I'm saying like one little aspect of it, like the financial aspect of it is kind of brutal. May Maybe not the worst one. Obviously, there was really tough times like oh wait, uh, obviously like just throughout history, there's been tough financial times.

but I wouldn't argue that this is a financially prosperous time if that makes sense. And once again, just talking about finances. There's many things going on right now that are absolutely awesome. Like, very, very cool, very good.

Um, it's just like one little aspect that I wanted to pontificate a bond after the market closes today. don't forget about FedEx Commonly thought to be a barometer for the overall Market FedEx wins over Wall Street with six billion dollars of cuts, gains on UPS Well, we're about to find out if they actually crushed it or not in the most recent fiscal quarter reporting. After the market closes today, don't forget to sign up for the newsletter. It is free Macquares.locals.com every single weekend.

I'm gonna give you my breakdown of the previous week what I'm looking towards in the upcoming week and then a quick short list of all the major macroeconomic events. All the earnings that I think you're going to care about seasonality update for the upcoming week of every individual day. Speaking of that today: Wednesday It is leading Bearish, but it's not clearly bearish. This is a look at the equity curve of buying it open, selling it close.

really. For about over the past 25 years, 20 of those was pretty much flat, and it wasn't until recently that there was a clear sell-off. So I put Leaning Bearish. Obviously, you could see the rest of the week I Give you an update on the Zero DTE option strategy.

Uh, last week it was 75. it went six out of eight. This week we're three for three, so thus far batting a thousand. And then the major charts that I'll be watching over the upcoming week and we could take a little quick peek at those in a second.

Five things to know before that belt goes today. Fed Date: yes, 2 p.m the results come out Jerome Powell speaks at 2 30 going public cart C-a-r-t made its IPO debut yesterday. opened up at 42, suggesting that it had a valuation of I believe 14 billion. It was a successful IPO in the sense that it raised 660 million dollars for the company Disney doubles down basically.

Uh, in the next 10 years they're gonna spend another 60 billion on their Parks Spf's parents I covered this in the video update yesterday. You should definitely watch the video update yesterday. I Personally believe it was the most ridiculous update related to FTX Sam Bakeman Freed and that whole alleged scam debacle I'm saying alleged just so I don't get sued Uh, but clearly it was a pretty horrific scam if at least you asked me. That's what happens when you're running basically a bona fide Ponzi scheme.

But anyway, they're trying to claw back money from his parents. which is interesting because his parents are within the world of law. they're at the Stanford law school and then they're left leaning on the aisle. They run packs and obviously FTX was donating to his mother's pack to donate to politicians.

Just this morning, it was announced that Stanford will be returning like I think over five million dollars, maybe 5.5 million dollars that FTX had given the school. Uh and then the craziest thing was from the court filings said an email from Sam Bateman Freed's father to Sam saying hey, uh, I think I deserve a million dollars a year not 200k and I'm gonna get your mom involved so make sure you're watching that video. Uh, it was crazy. official party pooper.

So this is the lady at Airbnb who is basically cracking down on parties saying you can't there was a 55 drop in parties reported on Airbnb between August 2020 and August 22 and this is the lady who doesn't want you to have parties a little bit later on. um I just felt about like complaining about the cost of everything. So we have a little bit of a California update and also a little bit of a China update. and then we could talk about some zero Dtes if you guys so choose.

Let me get ready for the market though obviously as we normally do it here the first 5 10, 15 20 minutes of the day I just want to watch the opening see what's going on I Did ask you guys if you guys thought today was going to be a green day or a red day and thus far 59 of you on YouTube's Unfortunately, there's no polling capability quite yet on um Rumble over here, but I guess Rumble what do you guys think? Is it going to be a red or a Green Day Um I Do want to point out how there's clearly a downside: Gap filled trade available right now the Spy is trading at 444.19 Yesterday's high is 443 29 so that's a dollar downside Gap fill which I would feel pretty confident of it getting filled today. and the reason I'm pretty confident is just because we know there's a lot of volatility, a lot of big whipsaw with Fomc days. So I'm just thinking there's a high statistical chance that at some point today I Don't know what point today, but I would assume that there's a high statistical chance at some point today of the market coming down and filling that Gap to yesterday's high in terms of the queues similar situation. Oops.

I didn't want to move that similar situation right here in the queues. Currently in pre-market trading at 371, yesterday's high was 369.87 Uh, actually, that is an inaccurate statement. What is going on? Why did these not? Update: Pardon me for one quick second. yesterday's high was 370 68.

We're currently trading at 371. So I'm actually even more confident about this one getting filled at some point today. About 30 cents of a downside, but once again, two Gap fills if you feel like trading it. Uh, these obviously don't come with like guaranteed.

There's no such thing as a hundred percent accuracy in the market, but I can tell you that the odds of Gap those, especially on indices such as the S P 500. the NASDAQ uh, those get filled pretty often. Once again, not all the time, but the odds are pretty impressive. so just wanted to call that out to all of you before the market goes.

Ding ding ding ding. I'm seeing 60 of you still feeling bullish on the day the Spy will close above 444. Okay, shoot. I don't know.

Oop, Nope. Scratch that. What did I just do? Uh oh? I lost my screen. Uh I have a minute.

Okay folks, you have a minute. What do you think the first minute's gonna be the you now have 50 seconds the very first minute bar a green bar or Red Bar the very very first one and I need you guys to like. Hurry up because I'm running out of time and I need to do this before the market actually opens. Go Go Go Go faster Faster faster I See Green Red 50 50.

Red Red Oh you guys are 50 50. doing yeah. Green Red Red Red Red Okay I think there's more red Okay which means which means which means uh uh boom brother. All right we're going for it.

I'm I'm lit Nope no no no no please please please please. All right time frame. We're gonna go to the one minute. no why is it Calc? All right, We put the trade in.

we're going for it. Did the bell go? Yes it did. The casino is open. Best of luck to all.

Play responsibly if not have fun. uh what are we? So on your Oh Jesus voice So on your ex. this is my actual account because remember the ninja trainer I'm waiting for it to go through approval or whatever. This is my real money.

My real account um traded. Basically I'm trading five micros right now AKA half a mini. Remember that a mini and it compared to a micro. a micro is a tenth of the size.

so if you're trading half of them or five of them, it's half. But anyway. uh I'm just going for a quick hundred dollars right here. Yahtzee That was easy.

You guys are smart. I Like that that's the easiest hundred dollar I might just call it a day right there. That was the easiest hundred dollars of my life. I Basically turned it all over to my internet friends and I said hey guys, a hundred dollars which way and you guys, you guys crushed it.

You crushed it. You crush it that that's it for the day. What? What else do you need? People act like making money in the market is difficult and this that the other thing I Don't understand why They just don't get a degenerate retail trading following that tells them the right move. Every single day.

day in and day out, you trade. That way you make a hundred buckaroos and boom, your boy just paid for Texas Roadhouse Your boy just paid for Texas Roadhouse this week and it's going to be a good one. Obviously we need to celebrate a little bit and uh, I'm gonna dedicate this to all of you guys because you guys absolutely crushed it. Appreciate you Wall Street There we go.

There we go. Thank you thank you thank you thank you. Not only did you guys fatten up my wallet, but you also put a lot of dopamine in my brain because it always feels good to crush it right out of the gates. So I appreciate that I appreciate it.

Thank you for my heart. you guys in my brain you flooded it with chemicals that make me feel better and then you also directly added to the balance of my actual trading account. So what a day! what else does a guy need? You know what else do you need in this world? Beyond A bunch of friends who are always 50 of the time. they're right 100 of the time to tell you what to do with your money in the market.

So my fee is 10, my fee is 4.2 percent. Honestly, if I look at all these fees and I put it together I think I'd be negative if I paid all of your fees. Enjoy the Texas Roadhouse thank you! Do you know how many of those free buns you can get for a hundred dollars? it's gonna be so sick. My fee is 6.9 Honestly I appreciate you guys giving me a discount.

Usually it's 420 but the fact that you guys are cutting it down to six point nine percent. Thank you thank you thank you thank you! You guys are the best! Much appreciated, Much appreciated. Can I write that off as Charity honestly do whatever you want I'm really I'm confused on what you can or can't do in terms of the whole IRS situation. This that the other thing.

Um, plus we're easily exploitable sycophants. Well, that's always the positive things too. I'm gonna put this on my resume. You know what's funny is when you get uh, funded by TOP Step They actually tell you to update your LinkedIn that you're a funded Trader Like who does this? like who would go out of their way on LinkedIn to be like I passed the top step combine like it's tough to pass I'm not trying to belittle the accomplishment well.

I guess in a weird way, it just seems like I I guess that's what Linkedin's for. Linkedin's like just I'm just not a fan of LinkedIn Maybe my issue isn't with TOP Step My issue is just with like it's just corporate bragging all the time on LinkedIn like all the time on LinkedIn that's all you get is just weird corporate bragging. So if you're in the world of trading, but yeah, throw this on your LinkedIn tell tell everyone that you're a funded Trader I'm like. All right I just there's an interesting thing about successful Traders It's an inverse correlation where the louder someone is the more Ruckus they make.

Generally they're not trading the best I I Truly truly believe the best Traders out there, not all of them, but if we're going to generalize it as in most of them I think most of the high quality Traders out there, you just don't know about them. They're quiet, they don't want a digital footprint. They don't want the IRS looking into them. They don't want people annoying them I Truly believe it's a perfect inverse relationship of the most successful Traders Are kind of like they're quiet.

They just do their own thing. They're just chilling. They're just sitting there. They're like, please don't annoy me I Do my thing I Hang out with my cat and they move on with their like life.

Basically, they're not the people bitching and moaning on Twitter They're not sitting there writing all this DD on Reddit like they they have better things to do with their life. Uh, but anyway, just my thoughts. just my thoughts on the situation. I'm gonna throw that on my resume.

Do it. Do it. Do it. Do it.

Happy to share with my network that I've successfully passed the ass whipping certification I have spy calls hoping for a Green Day by the way, my wife left me, is that why you got the Spy calls? Or are you more so asking me for advice on how to get your wife back? Because if you want advice on how to get your wife back I Would highly recommend you. Just it. Getting your wife back is very similar to getting a cat to fall asleep on your lap. You can't want it too much.

It involves a lot of low levels of psychological manipulation and I could give you an example. This is just one solid example of a thing you could do Mr cheat Clapper Three One two I would say in the middle of the night without communicating with her. just say sorry, Didn't mean to text you literally out of nowhere. Start with that.

Like I said low levels of psychological manipulation out of nowhere. Just be like sorry, didn't mean to text you that. that's going to get you going somewhere that that's definitely that's going to get you on the right path. Just say you were right, works every time.

Tell her all the kind things and help around the house works every time. Uh Abby I like mine better I I very much like mine better. What I like to do is obviously if any of you guys are my devout viewers, you know that I get up super early in the morning to crush the stair stepper. so I'm usually back by like 6 30ish 6 45 I Come in and at that point if you guys don't know I learned this from the person I got the cat from.

they're like cats are crepuscular I was like don't make up words and like the the animal person told me that cats are crepuscular and like you know how sometimes people say a word to you and they're just saying it because they know you don't know it like they just pick up like a r