Good morning, Good morning, Good Morning Happy! Wednesday November 1st and welcome back to another episode of the Mattc show where we see how degenerate we can truly be in the world's largest casino. Welcome Everyone Welcome Welcome Welcome! As you guys are storming the gates of the show this morning, do not forget to Absolutely Merk Murder un alive, destroy, just eviscerate take off the planet of the Earth the like button and the Subscribe button I believe T in chat you have to be subscribing. so I'm talking to a bunch of people who who already did that. Uh, but if you didn't and you want to just do it and make me feel better, be able to chat with everyone else.

do that on both Rumble and YouTube And don't forget to like just because it helps with the algorithm and gets this video out to other people who also might be degenerate gamblers who are on their way to fixing the problem just like we all are. Um, so hope you're having a good one. I Wanted to start a little bit early because it is. Wednesday So I need you guys to help me pick all the uh, fantasy for Fantasy the pick them League I Need you guys to tell me what teams are going to win? Uh, I'm going to check in and see how you guys did last week, but I don't think you did that well.

So um, whatever your methodology or your reasoning was last week, maybe just change it this week around because that would be a huge help. Um so I want to get through that very quickly because a lot of exciting things are going on in the Market at 8:30 A.m. ET Today, roughly 30 minutes ago, we got the treasury decision I'm not saying the FED decision I'm saying the treasury decision and it came in roughly in line with what Wall Street was expecting, but it was a slightly less in really the 20-y year looking at TLT um so less Supply less bonds being sold. Now bonds are going up so we're actually seeing the yields dump, the dollar come down a little bit and Bitcoin go up.

the dollar go up a little bit too and then this is helping Elevate the equity's market to the upside, so bullishness to start off the day. But it's not going to end there because later on today at 2 P.m ET I will be streaming this. but at 2 P.m. ET we're going to get the Fomc decision.

Fomc decision comes out at 2 P.m ET Today yes, I'll be streaming it and then a half hour past that at 2:30 P.m. ET the chairman of the FED Jerome pow will be uh, kind of addressing the world, answering questions, talking about how hawkish or D is or this or that or a hawkish PA Doish right he like they just they throw a lot of words together that like and they're like, yeah, this totally makes sense. So anyway, that's going to be going down at 2:30 but anyway, we're halfway through the week. Uh, we're kicking off a new month.

It's going to be a volatile, exciting day. Uh, so I myself am pretty pretty pumped about everything going down. Uh, very, very excited about all this. Uh, but before we get all to that, no one's congratulated me yet.

So I will congratulate myself. As of midnight last night, your boy has officially completed sober October And there are a couple things that I think I should now bestow upon you after going an entire month into sobriety. Now that I am so mentally clear I feel it is nothing but appropriate for me to share the wisdom that I have learned and pass it along to you. Uh, so lesson number one, With so much Clarity in my life I have come across a couple realizations: Number one: Hot dogs are definitely a sandwich.

Without a doubt in my mind, hot dogs are a sandwich. Write that down. Save that number two. I No longer believe in time time I I Think it's some phenomena created by the big watch industry and they have simply like told us that we need to get track, keep track of it and whatnot.

Um, so I think that's BS I think it's BS I Think time is a madeup concept sold to us by the big watch industry. Uh, I No longer believe not only in the linear nature of time, but time in a general sense. So uh, that's BS Uh, Third major lesson is: I Actually would not wish sobriety upon my worst enemy. Sobriety.

It's for quitters. It's for losers. It's for people who are throwing in the towel. It's for people who just don't want to have fun.

It's for people who are cosplaying about. oh, it's the healthy decision. Maybe I should stop drinking and driving and getting arrested and being a horrible parent and making all these decisions. It's none of that.

You're just doing it cuz you're you're quitting. You're just. you're just quitting. Um, so I Think that's that's what sobriety is for.

It's boring. It makes life a lot less fun. It makes life a lot less exciting I See no positives to it I Cannot name a singular positive to sober life. I Don't want to hear about weight loss because you're consuming less calories I Don't want to hear about better sleep because there aren't substances in your system and you're not staying up late.

I Don't want to hear about you being a more attentive parent because you don't have various substances course through your body that shouldn't be there. I Don't want to hear about any of that I don't want to hear about any of that whatsoever cuz you're just making it up. You're absolutely 100% money saved. Don't want to hear that one either.

No, it's just it's It's for people who quit a little bit too early. so that's my big takeaway from sober. October And I'm more than happy to share that with all of you. And now that we have enough people here, we have some sort of Quorum I suppose.

Uh, before we get into talk about the Markets I it's Wednesday We just do this every single Wednesday Um, you guys have been picking all of my I'm in a pick them League where I just need the winner of the game. This isn't the spread or anything, it's just which football team. Which professional football team do you think's going to win last week? You guys did horribly. You got eight of the games right, eight of the games right, and it actually ended up dropping me from third place to seventh.

So congratulations on absolutely sucking last week. So whatever you guys did, don't do that again. Do not do that again. Because you guys, it's an embarrassment what you guys did.

So how about be better this week and maybe I won't be so mad next time. So please please think about this first game Titans versus the Steelers Who do you have? It's Titans versus the Steelers Pittsburgh's favor by 2.5 and it is in Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Favored by 2.5 it's in Pittsburgh Uh, Steelers Steelers Titans Titans Steelers Titans Titans Oh, you guys are 5050 on this one. Steelers Steelers I think there's a couple more Steeler votes coming in. All right I'm going to go with that one.

That one seems close though. This one's going to be a tough one. Dolphins Chiefs The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 and it's in Kansas City it's in Missouri Who do you have Dolphins Chiefs that's both are six and two. Oh, that's going to be a tough one Chiefs Chiefs Dolphins Ah man man, oh man, oh man, how do I feel about this one? Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs I Think you guys are 50/50 if you're 50/50 I have to go with the Ah dude.

I I Like the Dolphins better, but the Chiefs they're coming off a loss. What's the chance of them losing three this season? Mahomes has a cold? Is he still sick? Does he still have the flu? Uh, it's in Germany it says it's in Kansas City on this app? Well, it's in Germany Oh man, this is a tough one. Momes died I don't know about that one. All right? Uh Cardinals and the Browns has to be the Browns right? I'm just putting in the Browns Bears and the Saints I'm going to go with the Saints uh Rams and the Packers who do you guys have in that one? Rams versus Packers Rams versus Packers Packers are favored by three and it is in Green Bay It is in Green Bay Rams versus Packers Rams Rams Ram.

Okay, you guys are more so saying. Rams will go with the Rams uh Vikings versus Falcons Falcons are favored by five and it is in Atlanta uh Kirk Cousins is out right? Vikings versus Falcons I Feel like we have to go with Falcons Uh right, he's hurt Falcons Falcons isn't Kirk cousin hurt? Yeah, he's out. Of course we have to go with the Falcons. Then Seahawks versus the Ravens Ravens are favored by 5.5 It's in Baltimore.

Uh, who do we have we have Seahawks versus Ravens Ravens are favored Hawks Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Okay, going with Ravens Bucks versus Texans. That's a close one. It's in Houston and the Texans are favored by 2.5 Bucks versus Tampa Bay Ravens Texans Texans bucks Texans Texans more I Think more people are saying oh, you guys are split on this one Oh, you guys are almost perfectly 50/50 I Need someone to make some sort of compelling? Well, if you guys are 50/50 I have to go with the home team Texans uh Pats and commanders Pats and commanders both are kind of bad and I think commanders just got rid of young. Um so the commanders are dropping some of their stronger defensive players Commanders and Pats commanders and Pats Pats Pats Pats Okay, Colts and Panthers both not good.

Maybe the Colts less not good. Carolina is the underdog, but it's in Carolina th only the underdog by 2.5 though. Panthers Panthers Colts Young to the 49ers? Yeah, that's going to be good for them. I mean the 49 are just somehow getting more stacked? Colt Colts Okay, whatever.

Eagles and cowg girls. All right. Obviously we're going with eagles. uh Raiders and New York.

Well, the Raiders just got rid of their coaches didn't they Raiders and Giants The Raiders are favored by 2.5 That's uh. what do? who do we have Giants versus Raiders It's in the Nevada. They're favorite by 2.5 New York But they just got rid of their coach and their GM I Know it's the home team, but they also don't have saquin Barkley so there's that to consider. uh I Can't believe I'm saying I think I think I have to go with the Giants um, Bills and the Bengals.

That's going to be an interesting one Bills versus Bengals It's in Ohio The Bengals are favored by 2.5 now that Burrow's kind of back in playing. dude I think he's I Mean there was. It was a rough start to the season for sure, but they've had a decent comeback. Uh, let's go with the Bengals on that one and then the final one Chargers and Jets.

That should be another good one. The Chargers are favored by three, but but it's in New Jersey It's HomeField Advantage to the Jets Who do you have on that one? Chargers versus Jets Chargers Chargers Jets Chargers Chargers Jets Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers Jets Defense is legit Jets Jets Home Team: Jets Jets You guys are 50/50 on this one as well. If you're 50/50 I'm going with the home team. All right, those are locked in sweet I Appreciate that that has nothing to do with the market, but it does have a lot to do with if I'm going to be frustrated with you, come Tuesday of next week or not.

So uh, hopefully you guys didn't mess that one up, but maybe we could bask in the success of the market popping very very nicely. So at 8:30 A.m. ET today we got an announcement from the treasury and obviously the market is reacting pretty well. spy popping.

Uh, we are now at 418. We are above the high from yesterday. We're seeing yield drop. We're actually seeing the dollar go up.

We're even seeing Bitcoin pop now Bitcoin almost going to 35k. So uh, everything kind of changed at 8:30 on that treasury announcement. So obviously I'm going to be breaking that down and then also setting everyone up for what to expect later. Today, Once again, we get the Fomc decision.

today. There is a very very very very very very very good. CH We are done with Fed rate hikes Like it, it's probably over it's going to be. The next question is how long are we going to stay at this level and when are we going to stop? When are we going to start cutting the FED R F fund rate? Probably not going to happen until like deep 2024, but we'll talk about that more a little bit later.

What is this one? Major landlords? Uh. Stock Features are little changed To kickoff November As Fed decision looms, Well, they should be up now. Are they going to update this? Well, okay, no, they're definitely up. I Mean, look at what's going on.

Uh, we are. Uh, we were drifting down. But then on the Treasury announcement, we are popping up right now. So this is what came out early early this morning and this is why we're seeing bullishness in the market.

Treasury details plans to step up size of bond sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates. Uh, side note here. For those of you who maybe have studied the history of Market collapses, recessions, that type of a thing. We're kind of, uh, close to one of the ending phases of, like, literally raiding the treasury.

But anyway, that's a side point. The Treasury Department announced plans Wednesday to accelerate the size of its auctions as it looks to handle its heavy debt load with financing costs rising in a development. Getting close attention on Wall Street The department detailed its refunding plans for future debt sales. The announcement comes with treasury yields around their highest level since 2007.

Remember, high yields? not so good. That typically represents a tighter financial situation. a reflection of financial. Market Spooked over how much damage higher borrowing costs could exact most immediately.

Treasure World Auctioned 112 billion in debt next week. That 112, That is the number where everyone's like, oh, maybe things are bullish here because the expectation was slightly higher at 114. So if the supply is less than expected, well, it goes up, then demand roughly staying the same Supply going down. price has to go up, so roughly in line, but technically slightly less than expected.

The sales will come in three parts, starting Tuesday with 48 billion in3 notes, with subsequent days featuring respective sales of 40 billion in 10e notes and then 24 billion in 30-year bonds. The total sale matched some estimates around Wall Street In recent days, it matched or was slightly lower. Thus, bullish for really? I Guess bonds yield coming down thus far apparently been B bullish for the dollar, but more so I'm interested in the reaction in Bitcoin itself. The department expects to increase the size of the two and five year notes by 3 billion a month, the three-year note by 2 billion a month, and the seven-year note by 1 billion a month.

By the end of January, the auction sizes will show respective increases of 9 billion, 6 billion, 9 billion, and 3 billion. so that all came out early this morning 8:30 a.m. ET and right before that, Stanley Drucken. Miller You've probably heard the name, but maybe you don't know much about him.

or maybe you've never heard of him before, but he is by many people considered to be a legendary Trader investor a guy who is very astute, very shrewd, and is very much like calls it out Matter of a fact of how like just he sees things and he crushes it. This guy. he. he's generally on the ball of like what's going on, especially in the larger pictor.

Very, very well respected and apparently a massive fan of the show. Stanley Drunen Miller says government needs to stop spending like drunken Sailors cut entitlements I truly feel as if he tunes into the show and he's like yo I like that I like how that Matt cus kid keeps saying that the government is spending like Drunen Sailors and he I I don't mind I mean I I don't mind at all like he. he must be a big fan. We're a fan of him.

He's a fan of us. He he's more than allowed to use our sayings for the government and I'm proud of it. I'm honestly proud that Stanley uh I call him Stan the Man like we're close buddies. but I'm really happy that Stan the Man is such an um uh I guess a common viewer of the show ve very much so.

Anyway, uh, we. he was on Squawkbox this morning and he brought up some interesting points I Want to share with all of you, but is there any way around monetizing these debt levels? Is there any way inflation is not here to stay? Yeah. I Yeah, we could have a um longterm look I don't have to worry about the longterm my day job but but I will say this: We could have an event I Don't know whether. Hopefully it's not a a a a war of major powers that bring us together and you get sacrificial Behavior like we got after the Depression in the World War II We could have a financial crisis um due to everything I've been talking about.

and finally My Generation I think Paul Jones made the Point We've given nothing, We've given nothing and now we want to screw our grandchildren. Finally, we get the memo. So no, I'm not calling it how he I'm not that pessimistic and I'll say the other thing I'm optimistic about. um Jerome no Jerome Pal: normalizing interest rates Yeah, we now have a hurdle rate for investment in this country.

So I think the allocation of capital. ironically if we don't go to the you know, the Ra Zombie Route and if we don't continue the drunken sh ironically I think it could be it could be a force for good because instead of funding a bunch of nonsense and bubble stuff, the capital gets more properly allocated. So look, I'm open-minded to a really bad outcome and I'm open-minded to a decent outcome. Well, we need to.

We need to cut here today. Not to talk about Janny I'm here today. Guns and butter this morning I could have written it by the way I didn't Um, we've got to stop guys. We're drunk.

We're we're digging this deep hole. What are we doing here? So what? What's more important? Uh, he actually continued and the classic thing of I was taught. when you're in a hole, stop digging. Dr Miller says he has massive bullish bets on the 2year notes.

Now this is really interesting because a lot of the times people are talking about the 10, the N a little bit of the 20, but it's really like the 10 and the 30. but the 10. Maybe they talk about the two when the like the two and the 10 are inverted. Um, but why this is interesting is because when the FED makes a decision with the FED fund rate, they're really only impacting the yield in the shorter end of the curve.

So think the two-year so as the FED fund rate goes up, the twoyear yield goes up and two-year bonds get hit. That's where they could impact. So a lot of the time when I gloss over it and I say oh, If the Fed is being hawkish and they're bringing up the FED fund rate, yields go up and that is true, but it's more impactful earlier in the curve. earlier duration namely the 2-year That's where.

like the there's more of a direct relationship and it's more of like secondary tertiary relationships. Later the curve you go like the 10, the 20, the 30. So what this is saying? truck and Miller once again a very respected investor. Trader he has crushed it.

He's most likely multi multi-billionaire He's basically saying that right now we have the situation where the 2-year yield has been like just absolutely ripping Sky High And you could see that if you're on trading view with us2y. So let me go to the weekly view just so you can get an idea of what's ever what's really been. Why Is this? There you go. This is what happened.

Can anyone see when they started to increase the FED fund rate? Right Here they start to increase the FED fund rate and guess what happens to the yield? Well, the yield starts to rip and then obviously yields and the associated Bond move inversely so as the yield is ripping to Kingdom Come for the two-year the two-year bond is going down. If the two-year Bond goes up, the yield goes down. They move inversely of each other. That's how it works.

That's math. Don't ask me. I didn't make it up. So anyway, the yields been ripping to Kingdom Come Which just logically means that the bond itself, the two-year Bond itself has been going down and down and down.

But then yet, we have this guy right here. Darkin Miller says he has a massive bullish bet on 2-year notes as in what he's saying is oh yield jar He's basically saying no, the fed's done with this and this is about to drop. He's basically calling out of he thinks that the FED is clearly done because this is the yield that the FED has the most direct impact on. So he's basically saying nope, yields are at their Peak on the 2-year they're about to come down.

Thus, two-year notes are going to go up and that's where he's betting his is money I Started to get really nervous about the economy recently. He says he's confident that the yield Curve will keep steepening billionaire investor Stan Dren Mailer as we like to call him Stan The Man said he's bought massive bullish positions on two-year notes and he's become more worried about the economy in recent weeks I started to get really nervous. Jeren Miller founder of his. he has a family office dude.

he just crushes it. Send an interview with hedge fund manager Paul Tutor Jones at a conference last week. So I bought massive leverage positions and short-term notes. he said.

so here's the yield of what's going on. this is just on. Bloomberg Um, but it's an interesting read. If you guys want to get a little bit more into it, we're I Mean we end up speaking so much about equities and cryptos here.

like I Feel like when it comes to the world of fix income like it's good to pay attention to it, but obviously by no means am I some sort of fixed income expert I know enough just to be paying attention to the big movement because of the direct impacts on the equities Market But for me, I'm not like some sort of massive Trader in the fixed income world. Uh, if if anything, I find it a bit boring because I grew up in a time where equities were just ripping and ripping and ripping. So I think a lot of times people's personal interest in the market has to do with what was the hot thing when they first started paying attention to it. So for a lot of my I guess like come up ands in the world of trading which we we'll just say it's like from whatever 2010 to 2020 that decade generally equities were the exciting thing and it wasn't bonds or yields or anything like that.

anyway. Dre Miller has joined a number of prominent investors including Bill Lman and Bill gross and sounding an alarm about the economy lately Amman founder of Ping Square Capital Management said this month that he Unwound bearish bets on the 30-year treasuries because there's too much risk. So what was going on here was he was Amman was betting against the bonds and then he covered it. and actually that day that we saw it, we actually saw the 30-year and the 20 year bonds popping the bonds themselves.

unlike Amman Dr Miller said he's keeping bearish wages on longer term bonds, so once again steeper down longer term because he's concerned about swelling government debt issuance but with the new bullish bets on twoyear notes. so he's playing it a little different. like longer term 2030, he's still bearish there, but he's now bullish earlier in time. but with the new bullish bets on 2-year notes, overall, he is long fixed income for the first time since 201 2020 he said at the Robin Hood Foundation event in New York a video of the interview surfaced on social media this week.

So it once again this is I don't want to get too too into the world of fixed income just because I know my audience and myself including like we're not the we're not the most interested in fixed income, but I want to cover it to the degree that I think it's important with its direct impact on equities and on crypto itself, so dren Miller still I Guess has somewhat of a short position on the ones longer out 20 30 year most likely I don't know if he has anything going on with the 10, but then he's massively bullish on two years. So in the short term, the thing directly impacted by the Fed, that's where he's saying oh, going bullish there, the statement by the Treasury Department and others that the maturity of debt has increased since Prerona is absolutely incorrect. Uh, at his family office, they use the Consolidated Government debt because we're looking at what the taxpayer is on the hook for. So this is a more detailed explanation of his position.

Um, under the Biden Yellen Administration we moved on now from Trump Minuchin to Biden Yellen Um, they grow the federal deficit. the federal debt 4.7 trillion dollar. All right, while nominal GDP over that period three years grows 25% It's like crazy. The economy is booming, we never had deficits of any kind of meaningful magn ude before Trump and the spending is going on.

Um, so you you increase the deficit the debt 4.7 trillion. By the way, the FED is monetizing in way and it's happening with GDP growing I'm I'm sorry Nomal GDP growing at 25% All right now we're going to get to what you're salivating over. Jo I Don't I'm going to let you do it You you go in the sequence you want I just I Just the intro wrote it like that. Go ahead.

Um. so at this point in 2021 in the second half, Yes, All right. Um, interest rates on the 10e are like 1.1 on the 30 year despite having been corrected in a tweet and I was right to be corrected. It was not 70 basis points under the Um.

Under the Biden admin ation, it was let's use 1 1.1 That's a more reasonable estimate. Um, by the way, the tweet that correct me on the 30y year is incorrect. Um, it was trading at 166 as a low that period and it was under 18. Um, plenty of the time.

The tweet that said that treasury has never managed. Um the maturity of the debt is also historically incorrect. as most of you probably know the Fed, the Treasury Department suspended 30-year auctions in 2001 because term premium was high, the Y curve was Steep and they thought it was a useless use of money. So um, they were reinstated five years later.

Um, one more thing on this issue. Um, in terms of the maturity of the debt, Treasury will have you believe. And the tweet used this Um that the maturity of the debt is 72 months. That conveniently leaves out 8 trillion that is funded overnight in the repo.

Market That's the FED balance sheet. How how much overnight $8 trillion do? That's the FED balance sheet. We at Duane use the Consolidated Government debt because we're looking at what what the taxpayers is on the hook for. In fact, when the Fed was making profits, they remitted the money to treasury.

So why you would leave out in terms of government debt $8 trillion under that the maturity of the debt which was 63 months preo is now 57 months. So the statement by the treasury Department and others that the maturity of the debt yeah has increased since since Preco is absolutely increased. Correct, All right right there Just calling him out saying that the treasury uh bunch of artist uh, feds, hawkish paus to keep option to hike. So we're going to talk about that.

But what I need you to know is at 2 p.m today the Fomc decision comes out at 2:30 Jerome pow will be speaking. We also have uh, my apologies 10: A.m. today we have more announcements coming down. As of now, there's a 97% chance that the Fed F rate remains unchanged I think it's pretty much 99.9 Uh, we'll come back to this.

Uh, Boj buys more bonds to slow Rising yields a day after tweak. So they're kind of giving up control. but not really. they're just continuing.

They were targeting 1% but they were trying to give it like not have like the yield curve control. Uh, but they're not getting it out of hand. So this is all connected to central banks. What's going on with the dollar? Because this impacts the USD JPY pairing? so we we'll talk about that.

Uh, there's a bunch of earnings we work shares sync after report it plans to file for bankruptcy so we work Definitely. We failed AMD gives soft fourth quarter guidance but expects to sell two billion of AI chips next year. AMD was getting hit after the earnings, but the Market's Rising right now so it might be able to catch a little bit of I Don't know. Bullish momentum CVS Results Top expectations lifted by strong Health Service Revenue Check out XLV today that's the healthcare sector slow Pizza Hut Sales in the US way on Yum brands Yum Brands owns Pizza Hut not the best We Fair losses narrow, but sales come in short of expectations as demand remains tepid.

We're seeing a weak consumer so we're still in earning season after the market closes today. PayPal Roku Qualicom Tomorrow we have paler Shopify DraftKings Carvana Starbucks Coinbase Cloud Flare The big one is Apple in terms of the seasonality today, which is in the newsletter Mc. Locals.com Today favors the Bulls tomorrow fa the Bulls and Friday favors the Bulls. So with all that being said, let me just get ready.

Uh I have about 30 seconds. You guys voted bullish and someone yesterday said I should let you guys trade for me. So that's exactly what I'm going to do. That's exactly what I'm going to do.

You guys voted bullish on open and that means if I can time this right um I'm going to go bullish. Most of you voted bullish today and we'll see how good good of Traders you guys are. So at right: Order filled, order fill I Threw the bullish trade on target Target filled Target filled. Oh okay.

wow, you guys are pretty good. You guys just made 320. I Guess you guys do know what you're talking about. That's actually kind of crazy.

Um, 71% of you voted bullish. So I threw on six cont contracts to go bullish and you guys locked in 320 like it was nothing. Uh, so you guys are pretty good dude. it's almost like you guys know what's up.

Um, so the Market's open. Definitely open. Ding ding ding ding. The casino is open.

Come one, come all play responsibly if not, have a bunch of fun. Excuse me I'm just like I have to gather my thoughts because I mean you guys were right. Really fast. like really really fast 320 out of the gate.

I guess I'm kind of done like I don't really need to do anything else today. Um, that was yeah. No, we got to celebrate that. I'm we? I guess we'll do this daily until you blow up my account.

Um, but I good good call outs today. Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street. Uh. once again.

Massive massive Congrats there massive massive congrats. Uh, you guys nailed it and obviously we'll we'll play the game again tomorrow. We'll just keep going. I'll let you guys control the account until apparently it is no longer working.

But congrats you guys! are one out of one, One out of one, it does count. Uh, so obviously there is the downside. Gap Fill I didn't quite get into it. Hang on.

let me get rid of this. Let's get rid of this. Let's go to this. There is a little downside: Gap fill which almost got filled but not quite downside Gap fill to 4853 the high from yesterday.

uh, looks like it's very close to getting filled I wonder if support's going to be found there. And then we keep going to the upside kind of watching for 20 this morning I tweeted it out with some of the charts and the breakdowns of my upper level targets my lower level targets. But there is the downside: Gap Fill on spy to 418 53 if you're playing the Qes, there's also a downside: Gap fill to 35125 We're trading about a dollar higher than that. So remember Gap fills They don't work 100% of the time.

There's no such thing in the entire Market that works 100% of the time. So so you always have to balance out your risk no matter what. Even if you have a 99% chance, you don't want to be the person who blows up your account on that 1% chance. But there is a downside.

Gap F On the Qes to 35125, we're going to set an alert there just so we know if it gets hit today and then on the Spy there is a All right? Well I don't know why it's do. hang on. we'll set this up. uh Crossing B Crossing down I think I need it to work all right.

Cool. We created that one and then we'll do it so the Spy is much closer to getting it. uh Crossing down. Uh, so both have downside.

Gap FS They're high Odd plays. Nothing's ever guaranteed. but it does look like both are about to hit. Um, so watching that for the morning.

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try it out for two weeks. if it's not for you, No harm, no foul. You didn't have to pay anything. but I think you're going to like it I Mean we use it in here literally daily to see who's bullish, who's bearish.

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but anyway, use the code cores K RS a free two-e trial and see if it's for you. Um, they have various payment options and various Services you can get I am a massive fan of it because whatever I pay for it monthly. uh I definitely make more off of it than whatever I'm paying. So I'm net ahead with the service.

Um, so check it out, see if it's for you AMD is blowing up. Uh, it is. It did get hit after earnings pretty bad and then it recovered on the call and now it's actually recovering very, very nicely. That's crazy and this just shows you.

in my opinion, I don't know there are people out there who uh I think that the only way to play off earnings to be like a profitable earnings Trader is to be very, very good at fundamental analysis and that's just not my forte. I think there's many ways to engage in the market and I personally have no Edge when trading earnings, that's just me. Maybe you do, Maybe whatever. after a 100 trades, you're going to be net profitable.

If you give me a 100 earnings to trade I'm going to be 50/50 Maybe I'll be net ahead. Maybe I'll be net behind. It's just not my Edge you got to know your lane. like for example, we were talking about fixed income this morning I know enough about it to pay attention, but not enough to trade it.

There are so many different ways that you can engage in so many different aspects. so many different corners of the market. Find the thing that works for you, find the thing that resonates with you, and you just do that time and time again. you.

You don't need to be the person who's an expert on crypto and fixed income and options and long-term investing and also earnings. but then also you're doing some day trading. like find out what's appropriate for you. Like do you like the swing trade? Do you like to day trade? What asset class do you like to do it? Do you like to deal with ETF Do you like to deal with equities? Do you like to deal with crypto? Do you like to deal with Forex Like these are all things that people who are good at.

It make a lot of money. There's not like one exclusively one way to make money in the market. So for me I know a lot of people play earnings I Know a lot of people like to predict is Tesla going to beat is NVIDIA going to meet expectations beat expectations Mis expectations. That's just not me because like I choose to engage in the market where I can back test a lot of data and then just know when I have a statistical Edge and the way that I've looked at the markets with earnings.

to me, it's a crapshoot. To me it's 50/50 and I just don't like those odds. It'd be one thing if I had a clear quantifiable Edge that I could do over and over again and I'm sure some people out there do for earnings I'm just not one of those people. So if you got into AMD I mean the reason I'm talking about this right now is just because with AMD this is in my mind an example of the crap Sho At first the earnings Miss so it dumps from 99 all the way to 93.

but then the I guess the earnings call goes well, pops back up to where it closed out, drifts a little down and then gets a benefit off the treasury announcement this morning. Like to me that's just so many random events from Market close to Market open like what in the world is the edge so I'm sure some people do have edges in it I'm just not one of those people. hence why I don't play earnings then if I do play earnings I know I'm basically at the roulette wheel I know it's 50/50 so I bet really small and like that's it but this is just not my forte I'm much more of like the technical Trader of like oh okay I see this I know these are the odds in the situation so I'm going to look at my quick Kelly like quickly look at my like Kelly Criterion like cheat sheet of how much I should be betting given a cc like a certain circum stand where I believe I have certain odds and then I play that time and time again I'm not like the longer term Warren Buffett I'm not the longer term Stanley dren Miller Like making a call out a major macroeconomic development It's just sometimes you got to know your lane. You got to know what you're good at because the market 100% pays you for expertise in a certain field.

not a breath of knowledge in many different fields. So like you just got to get good at your certain thing and you just kind of rock it from there. That's my opinion. Um, and maybe you agree with it.

Maybe you don't agree with it. but I I find it. I've never met a person who has all right knowledge in many different aspects of the market and is and is profitable if anything I find people have very specific Niche knowledge and they only know about that and they just do that time and time again. Uh, what's up Matt How have you been dude just just rocking rocking this thing they life, you know, just rocking it.

for those of you who are tuning in a bit late. first of all Dem Merit you should never be late to class. Class started at 9:00 a.m. but when class started we were talking about I Basically started this stream and all I heard were just like boisterous Applause Everyone was applauding they're like Matt's here Matt's here He completed sober October So for those of you who missed the intro uh to Today's Show uh as of midnight last night, your boy completed sober October And with a month of sobriety, a month of just seeing clearly into the Matrix like Miles Ahead behind sideways, laterally longitudinally in, down, up, down, backwards, forwards, backwards, upwards, downwards I I saw it all.

and I I learned some very, very deep lessons that probably you people don't know because you haven't been sober for a whole month so you're not seeing the world as clearly as I am. And my major major realization is that there is no point in having the discussion or debate or any form of conversation around our hot dog sandwiches. They are in fact sandwiches. and anyone with the clarity of mind that I have would clearly know that.

So just as you move forward in your non sober life, please understand, don't waste any time on it. Hot dogs are clearly sandwich and that's it. That's all you need to know. We can move on with our life.

I Figured that one out I figured it out. That's the answer. Move on to the next hard question. Other things I've learned is um, sobriety is basically for a bunch of quitters.

Um, so that was one overall feeling that I had the entire month like I just had this itching feeling in the back of my mind I was like dude, you just it feels like you're throwing in the white towel on your life. It feels like you're just like just saying hey I don't want to have fun anymore I don't want to get in into any Shenanigans for the remainder of my day. So um definitely F felt like a a bit of a quitter if you will, so that's another obvious evident dangerous aspect. Why is everyone talking about salana right now? Salana Should I not have gotten out of my salana salana up 2% trading at 39 Bitcoin got above 35k at one point this morning.

Crypto: It's hot. It's a hot hot hot hot commodity. Um so if you guys have any deep life questions that you want to ask me before this evening when I am no longer sober Matt You should ask now like this is this is you have this stream and then today's afternoon stream for the Fomc meeting at 2 pm. you have two more streams to ask me any like great life questions that are on your mind because after this I'm just going to be one of you guys I'm going to go back to the trenches I'm coming down off my high high mountain of just like mental Nirvana Mental Clarity Uh so if you guys like this is your s like this is your chance.

This this is absolutely your chance. Uh sorry I was late to class I was playing Billiards Peter Vanen Clute what are you doing playing Billiards at 6:00 in the morning I assume by your name that you're some sort of European ocracy, so it's probably midday for you. but I like to actually picture that you live on the west coast in the US Like this is just my mental image of you. that you're kind of like, um, like European royalty.

but then to get a taste of real life you've come to Europe and it's like whatever. almost seven in the morning for you. So you got up at like 3: in the morning to play Billiards Um, that's just my mental image of what's going on. It's probably not true, but that's just what what's coming.

That's what that's what. I picture playing with balls. am I drunk Now Matt No. I'm high on life I mean think about my life it if it rocks.

First of all, I get my job. day in and day out out is to hang out with you cool people. We get to BS all day. It's a fun vibe.

it's a comedic Vibe We get to make jokes. We get to see what's going on in the internet. Ideally we make some money. Shout out to you guys.

you already made me $320 this morning. Uh, that took about 4 seconds. You guys with your absolute Unec aptitude to predict the morning openings with 70% of you confirming it would be a positive opening, pay me $320 out of the gate like thank you. that's my life 320 and then I just get to spend the rest of the day bsing with you cool people like dude.

No reason not to be high on my life. It rocks. Absolutely rocks. Uh, should out trading the first 15 minutes.

Well, you guys told me the market open so it technically wasn't my trade. it was your trade. You guys told me to do it. Pie is basically a sandwich.

You have filling in the middle and and two pieces of bread on the top and the bottom. Uh, pie is not a sandwich. Let's come on, Evil Evil Fandango Let's not get crazy with it. Let's not try to show off to the new viewers who are like, oh, what's this show about? How crazy are the CH if you're new to the show Evil Fandango He doesn't mean that he's just doing a little bit of peacocking.

You know, he's just he's trying to get. He's trying to rustle some feathers. He's trying to get the new people to be like, wow, that's a crazy commenter in here. Um, so let's not evil.

We all know what you're doing. We all know what you're doing. But to the new people, he's messing around. He doesn't mean that pie is a sandwich.

We're not that crazy. We do some degenerate stuff in here, but we're obviously not going to bmer the name of a top three dessert known to mankind calling it a sandwich. Like, we're not going to do that. What we could talk about.

Another thing that I've learned in my crystal clear mental image of the world over the past month: One big big realization that I've had. and I'm going to say this and before you guys have the knee-jerk reaction to argue with me: I ask you let it settle for 10 20 30 seconds. Please let it settle for 10 20 30 seconds and understand that I'm right on this and I know I'm right on this. So if you want a cop an attitude, understand that you're just not letting what I'm saying really settle into your soul.

but a big big realization that I've come to not only are hot dog sandwiches, this is a bigger one. So actually maybe I'm going to give you a second to sit down because I don't want to like I don't want this statement, this realization to knock you over. So I'm going to give you a quick second. Uh, secure your socks because I don't want to knock those off.

Maybe you want to take a seat because this is obviously some big information. The major major takeaway I've learned is that the meat based food ham a form of meat we get from pigs ham. We all know what I'm talking about ham. H M I would argue is exclusively only for breakfast and lunch and should not be consumed for dinner.

Let that settle. Ham Ham is not a dinner meat and it should not be a dinner meat. It is exclusively for breakfast And for lunch, you should not be eating ham for dinner. It doesn't make sense.

It is a breakfast and lunch meat. Do not eat it for dinner. just throwing that out there. throwing that out there.

That's it. Is not a night. Food it is. You should not be eating him.

We'll say past 2 p.m. ET Pulled pork is delici I Didn't say pulled pork disagree. Pulled pork I I'm saying specifically I'm not talking about pulled pork at all I'm not talking about RI I didn't say pulled pork I didn't say ribs I didn't say that I said ham I I didn't talk about pork chops I I said nothing about pork chops I said nothing about ribs I said nothing about pulled pork. We're not talking about pork I'm talking about ham.

just I I Made a very clear, specific statement about ham and you guys can fight me all you want. but understand, you're punching at the air I am right on this. I am 100% right I spent an entire month thinking about it. It Ham ham should only be consumed for breakfast and for lunch.

That's I Said what I said and I'm not taking it back I'll let you guys think about it I'll I'll let you guys think about it as much as you want and you could argue with me. but like, understand you're you're punching Into Thin Air on this one. Like you're just, you're fighting yourself and as you get a little bit older, as you mature a bit more, you'll realize the wisdom in my words. You will eventually realize wow, that mad kid.

He was really on to something. He was really on to something. But why? dude, Why is water wet? Why do cats me outow? Why do I cry myself to sleep? There's certain things in this world that we're just never going to get the answer to and that's one of them ad why is him only a breakfast and lunch meat? Uh, add that to the question of unanswerable wise. it's just I Don't make up the rules.

it just is what it is. It is what it is. What about Ham On the holidays you're saying the same days where you're like socially, you're allowed to start drinking at 7:00 in the morning. I Think it's safe to say that no rules really pertain to the holiday season.

I mean I still believe in it, but it's crazy. Like we can all admit that there's rules and then sometimes rules get broken. So if you're eating holiday ham or dinner, you're breaking a rule like that. Doesn't mean that the rule is not a rule, but you're like clearly breaking it just thr it out there.

I'm going to say the things that our politicians don't have the balls to say: Water is originally cold. All right folks. we do have some time. Um, we have about 10 minutes until you know we could like reasonably start making decisions about the market.

Uh, couple things that we should go over for later today. Fed's Hawkish Paus to keep option to hike. Policy makers want to wait to see more data before acting Financial Conditions have tightened since September meeting. Here's what I'll tell you.

Here's what I'll tell you at 2: P.m. today, we are going to get a Fomc decision a Federal Open Market Committee decision And that's where they're going to decide what to do with the FED fund rate. As of now, the FED fund rate is 5.25% They were chatting yesterday. they're chatting again today to decide if they could change that and they could change it, but with about a 99.2% confidence level they're not ching we're at 5.25 There's a good chance a very high chance that we're staying at 5.25 I'm of the opinion that there's definitely going to be no change actually.

I think that we're done with hiking up the FED fund rate I think in this particular monetary policy cycle, the FED interest rate hike, pause cut cycle I think we've now hit the peak I Think we're in at 5.25% because any more that they would want to do is another 25 bips really going to do anything and really yields already so high that it's probably doing like half of the work that the FED would need to do to dampen demand. Demand is definitely getting dampened and it's just a question I'm like do they really need to do another 25 bips here So this comes out at 2m Jerome Pal, the chairman of the FED will be speaking at 2:30 so 30 minutes later, this is what's going to happen. Is the Market's going to go crazy? Then it's going to go crazy the other way, then it's going to go crazy even the other way. So basically, from 2 p.m.

to Market close, expect a lot of sanity. Um, and what the Market's going to be? If we already know with 99% accuracy that there going to be no like Fed rate hike, a very, very fair question is, then, well, okay. what's going to actually impact the market? What's going to decide if the market goes up? What's going to decide if the market goes down? It's going to be the Market's interpretation of what Pal says. Is he going to continue to Echo This rhetoric of rates higher for longer? Are they going to construe what he says to be very, very hawkish? Or are they going to be like whoa, It sounds like that old man with a plan.

daddy printer, Daddy pal, Money printer. Go. Burr Is it going to sound like he's taking his foot off the gas? And maybe he's like starting to lean a little bit more dubish. So it really has nothing exactly to do with what he says.

It's really what the market is. This is a game of perception. That's all the market is. has nothing to do with actual facts or figures.

has to do with a bunch of people like you me institutions. Pension funds all that good jazz, The perception of company's reports, the perception of what's going on with the treasury, the perception of what's going on with the FED actual hardcore like numbers. They don't matter in this, it's all how we as a like a unit like everyone participating in the market. It has everything to do with our perception of if it's good or bad.

Even today the treasury announced what 700 billion in buying to help with our budget and our deficit. Because our government as Stan the Man and I both say is being run like drunken sellers. But then the fact that they're buying only two billion less than anticipated they were anticipating 114 billion came in slightly lower at 112 and because of that the market bounced. So in this like fictitious vehicle, this fictitious organism that we call the Market it added even more billions of dollars of value.

Like that's the that's the craziness of this. This is all all the market is is crowd psychology. It's no, it has like no true basing in Factor figure. It's not just because like a company has a good or bad earnings that has to trade out this value, this that the other thing.

No, it's everyone's opinion on those matters. And then they decide to buy or sell. Um so it's always a forward looking prediction of our things going to be better or worse. and then if they think it's going to be better, it's going to go up.

If it's going to be worse, we go down. Uh, but it's not really based in like it's not anchored to hardcore numbers or anything like that like at all at all at all. So anyway, keep that in mind when we're listening list to: Pal Speak Today once again 2:30 P.m. ET Yes I'll be streaming it if you're watching this right now and you are not there at the 2:30 meeting I will find you I will come to your place of employment I will come to your house I will kick in the doors I will take all of not only your child's Halloween candy I will take all of your Halloween candy.

This class is having an extended session today and if you are not there there, there's going to be a candy mat tax to pay. And don't don't push me on this one. You're you're not going to want to push you, Don't want to know if I'm fibbing you on this one, if I'm bluffing or if I'm real because I'm telling you this is not a threat. this is a promise.

This is a promise. So anyway, in about four minutes we're going to be getting uh, this one, the ma ISM Manufacturing ISM Manufacturing PMI and prices and then the jolts job openings as well. So that's coming out. Hang on.

Let me just upload this because it should. Or yeah, four minutes right here. So Jolts Job Openings ISM Manufacturing PMI as ISM Manufacturing prices all coming out at 10:00 a.m. so expect the market to go a little bit crazy for that.

Um, so right now yields are still going down the 10-year yields dropping. That is bullish for the market. Remember high yields? Uh actually what I really want to look at is the 2-year yield. Yeah, two-year yield also getting hit.

How's the dollar looking? Dollar did pop Taking a little bit of a breather now but it seems like if anything the Market's really reacting to uh, new weakness in yields. which means new strength in bonds. So if we to look at the strength in bonds we could probably just check out TLT this is uh, an ETF roughly tracking the 20y year. So yeah, the 20-year treasury bond.

ETF so uh, not really bullish but also not dying anymore. Which the way bonds have been performing I would argue that that's a good thing. Um, the classic stand the man commentary of when you're in a hole, stop digging at least TLT stopped digging. Um, so just pointing that out to everyone pointing that out, we still have downside.

Gap fills on both the spy and the Q's as of right now I have no positions on this is a day where I'm like H do I really want to trade? It feels like a lot of Randomness Maybe I'll do a little scalp trade in the Futures Market Um, like early this morning. but I don't really I don't uh I don't know I guess I want this 10 a.m. announcement I Just want some info to come out. What if institutions are moving liquidity off the market to hide in bonds? What does that mean? What if institutions are moving liquidity out of the market to hide in bonds? I Think you mean Capital liquidity is just how many people are buying and how many people are selling like something is very liquid if you can get in and out of that asset a lot.

So like Penny socks are commonly ill liquid, it's hard to move size of Penny socks. Something like apple is extraordinarily liquid. You can buy a lot. you can sell a lot and you'll get a fill pretty quickly.

That's liquidity. I Think you're talking about capital of people moving their money from the equities Market to fix income to bonds. Well, the fact that bonds have been getting slaughtered is showing you that they haven't been doing that recently. Uh, they might start doing that and that's possible I mean going long on bonds right now is a pretty solid thesis.

It really is. Um, I I I Myself am thinking about buying some bonds just because, like they've been so beaten up to the extent of like a multi-standard deviation move. To the downside that at a certain point you just think that there has to be some sort of reversion. Um, but just so you know we are getting these, let me get the audio set up for this.

We do have some stuff coming out at 10:00 a.m. so I'm going to turn this on to to see if they're talking about it. Uh, let's do a quick check in on the options Market before this happens. Maybe we can in real time, just see if there's any crazy moves.

A little bit of a flow alert right here at 948 that is suggestive of a reversal. A reversal. Uh, as in spy coming down. so be careful with that.

Uh, options did pop between 946 and 949. So uh, 3 minutes of buying there, but going sideways? spy? Maybe faltering. faltering a little bit. But let's see how this all plays out.

Uh, if we look at the EMAs 10 minute is bullish. 30 minute got knocked. but now going bullish. the 3 minute continuing its trip upward.

So the first sign that maybe things are cracking would be if the well. let's just get the relative level on the Spy here if the Spy goes below 418. but that would obviously be no dub because that would mean we are below the opening. but I'm just looking at this.

48 EMA Um, just seeing that. Uh yeah. 42. Yeah, Okay, uh well.

let's see. Let's see, we have 5 Seconds 5 Seconds Till this round of reporting comes out. let's see. let's see which way things are going to break.

Wooh look at those ISM Manufacturing numbers PMI Prices must have come in nicely because that market just popped. This was my upside Target 420 I Tweeted this out this morning so that Target obviously just got hit. um right here. I've been tweeting this out in the morning.

My upside and my downside targets right here. Uh, watching 418 followed by 420. To the upside. uh, obviously we opened above 418, we held 418 and then we just popped to 420.

So I'm going to count that as a nice win. I'm going to count that as a very nice win. Big pop to the upside. let's see if it holds.

Uh is profit in here? Profit? Do you have the numbers? Good Wednesday Morning welcome to another hour of on the street I'm Sarah Eisen with Carl Konia onm and then slightly higher than expected on open more Thaned rally on the Dow S&P up a third of 1% and as you can see most sectors are higher. technology is leading the way. That's helping the overall index. Some pressure on the defensive groups like utilities Staples materials and Healthcare also lower.

Today we're going to talk about the Fed, the earnings picture, and much more Treasury's front and center. After the refunding announcement that we got from the Y this morning led to a little bit of a rally with yields lower across the board the 10 note yield 4.8% the 30-year also below 5% We're 30 minutes here into the trading session. Here are three big movers we're watching right now: Yum! China Estee La They're all start this show right when big reports come out and then they just about it I Don't understand why they like who is giving them that direction on the show. Options Going bullish, pluming after disappointing results in a slew of grades from the street.

Paycom now the biggest laggard on the S&P 500 by far this morning. On the flip side, check out shares of Gener shares soaring double digits right now on the back of its earnings beat. Sales slipped but margins improved. Jok is the best performance stock.

Someone went strong into options right there getting some Isms and Jolts. Let's get back to Rick s Yeah, there we go. Get Rick on get the real people on there. Pretty good Clu get to construction spending.

Well, it was up 410 exactly as expected, although that is the weakest level since April Jolts job openings and labor turnover 9,5 53,000 Better than expected. However, last month had a big revision from 9,610 th000 to under 9,500,000 which means that this is now the strongest number since May It would have been just uh in line with last month, but the the downgrade was so large that's where the comp even moves further back. Now here's where the weakness seems to be showing up. The Isms: Okay, if you look at 46.7 on the manufactoring, 46.7 is the weakest since July and it is now the 12th sub 50 in a row.

If you look at prices paid, expected to be 45 comes in at 45.1 45.1 actually is the highest well only since August when it was 48.4 Six in a row under 50. but in this case, in this case, that's a good thing. We want it to be under 50. We want prices paid to moderate if you're looking for inflation metrics, of course, to ease back on the employment front.

considering we had ADP in Friday, we get the Big Jobs report 46.8 well below the 50 and change expected. 46.8 actually is the weakest number going back to July when it was 44.4 and this represents of course a fall back under 50 last month was 51.2 And finally on the new orders front, expecting a number just under 50, it is well under 50 45.5 45.5 And that is the weakest going back to June. So there's where your impetus is for some of the buying and treasuries on those last ISM uh, manufacturing, price, pay, deployment, and new orders. We want to pay particularly close attention to the $479 to 4, 80 and 10 that has defined the lower end of this range Since on the 23rd of October, we had that intraday violation of 5% Sarah Back to you, hey, we'll watch those levels.

Thank you Rick Santelli uh for crunching that data for us. Better job openings, weaker manufacturing. The Bond rally continues the dollar selloff. also resumes post data.

We also had ADP earlier this morning guys the Private Sector Jobs report which showed a weaker than expected headline number. though everybody just just writes it off because as as far as a predictor of what it's going to mean for the Government Jobs report on Friday, Here's one part that I did pull apart from it, which is they break down how much you get paid. if you're a job switcher or a job stayer, those are the two lines there and those numbers are coming down, which is a good proxy. We're looking for any proxies on wage growth, right? Workers who stayed in their jobs off 5.7% medium pay increase which sounds high, but it's actually the lowest level since 2021 and those who change jobs wages Rose 8.4% also the slowest Pace since 2021, so progress there.

I would say on the wage front if you're looking for anything from ADP that the FED can take out of this ahead of today's announcement. Kind of kind of hard after last month where they gave us such a a low number and we ended up with such a barn burner on Friday Under 100,000 was ADP and over, was was the NFP so we don't we don't take anything from it but we have that we have that that was an an event. We also had the refunding announcement as as Rick Santelli mentioned which led to a rally especially in the long end. I Don't think the mystery was the absolute number because we got that on Monday for how much the treasury was going to borrow this quarter and it was less than than it previously expected, but it was the the skew of where they would borrow and especially on the 10 and 30 year.

Um, to see that not not as heavily weighted, there was a relief. I think for the markets or potentially a sign that the treasury's worried about this. This rise in longer term treasury yields when they when they push more of the of the auctions to the two-year and the bills section which is what we saw but we were waiting for this week. we were waiting for the finan.

We don't need this anymore. Uh, just so you know I want to be very very clear about this So I am continuing with posting the Zer DTE strategy I myself am not