This is doing what genius do. She's a genius too. Let's go meet him. Let's see his blueprints.

Let's take a picture with him. We got a picture. Genius. Your life ain't been the same.

Intellect on Cosmic levels was born with two brains I've been working hard, don't even got the time to stare at clocks Mr Quality means quantity. That means I drop a lot. where's Ryan Gosley I lost the notebook so I won't jot nothing down I've been out here trying to put on for the time financially I'm getting Pennywise minus the clown cause I don't Joker but I got a Harley Quinn riding with me. Who you give me if you don't you need some big brain energy.

Shut up. Can you see me now? Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother hello hello hello. Welcome back to the Mad Coors Live show. It is a beautiful June 12th I Hope you guys are ready.

Maybe it's not your morning. Maybe it's your afternoon. Maybe it's your evening. Maybe it's your night.

I Don't know what it is but I hope you're having a good one I Hope you had a great weekend I Know we had an extra day off there on Friday Well I did. It's not like the market was closer or anything but I got back wrote the red eye from Vegas so am I tired? Yeah, I'm incredibly tired. but that's what planes are meant to do. They're made, meant to make you feel incredibly uncomfortable and essentially give you scoliosis.

But here we are here. we are Uh, how is Vegas It was great. It was fun. Um I I Really? I'm not the biggest fan of like common casino games I hate slots.

Uh, they're programmed by people like me with software degrees to ensure that over the long run you don't win. Uh, when you know the the odds of I guess Blackjack when you know the odds of craps any of these odds like nothing's in your favor. The longer you're there, the closer you are to losing money like that's the. That's why casinos and gambling are casinos and gambling and they just the odds are never really in your favor.

Of course you can find points in time, like if you're good at counting cards in blackjack, you may be able to crush it. And if you're looking at things like roulette over a series of bets like if you have a lot of blacks or a lot of Reds or a lot of odds or evenings yeah, like at a series of bets, it eventually goes in your favor. But even in that style, if you do it long enough, it's just a certain amount of time before you go bus like there are mathematicians who just ensure when you're doing all those things that if you do it long enough going to get destroyed. That's why my favorite game is actually poker.

because at least I'm not playing against the house I'm playing against other players and maybe I have an edge there. Maybe they're just less of a skill level, but on the flip side, if I sit at the table, there's also the chance that I'm the sucker. So if I go to Vegas or really doing any of that form of gambling, poker's by far my favorite. but even then I don't know I think one of my favorite things really in Vegas is all the shows I Love the Cirque du Soleil like all those like what's the car oh, they had a new Mad Apple One I Haven't seen that yet, but Vegas is very much trying to become more than just gambling at this point.

I mean obviously? uh with sports I mean the Raiders are there that new stadium I Don't know how many of you are in Vegas right now or how many of you've seen it in general. but the Raider Stadium is beautiful. It is amazing. Uh I was told that I guess the Oakland A's the baseball team's about to move to Vegas and in the 25-26 NBA season.

Uh, allegedly there's going to be two new NBA teams and allegedly one's going to end up in Vegas So they're trying to build it out like they have all these shows. They're getting all these Sports Uh, so obviously, gambling is still going to be an important aspect of the city and the economy for the city, but they're clearly making an effort to become even bigger and more than that. Uh, and you could even see it in the construction. Uh, talking to some locals who are there like it's just been non-stop leading into the Rona period.

and now, especially after the Rona period. I Guess it's just been gangbusters, a barn burner of expansion there. So uh, definitely a city that's just getting larger and larger and larger. Definitely cool.

Uh, so it was fun. It was fun. The only thing that sucks about it is the like the time zone and the uncomfortable flight coming from the East Coast but other than that, when you're there, it's cool I like the sun getting some vitamin D uh so happy with that apparently I missed a crazy day on Friday though I was checking in a little bit as much as I could on my phone but man Friday was just rippity skippity doodah now I still have my put so I'm in pain but if you have calls massive congratulations to you. Seriously like you took the other side of the trade.

But if you're up money I'm stoked for you because it's hard enough for anyone to make money. So if you were for whatever reason feeling bullish on Friday and keeping your risks to reward in check and you just rode that up I mean the market crush it. But what really impressed me was Tesla I mean we me on stream with all of you I Got into Tesla around 201 202 I got out around 2 15 216. it's 240 250.

Tesla's absolutely ripping. Absolutely ripping. Uh, so if you got that one specifically, congratulations feeling good about my Netflix um that's actually that and Target are the places I'm feeling good about. but my spy puts in my Q puts right now.

They're a bit painful. but let's see how things play out. of course I Want to go over seasonality with you of how the week's looking in terms of seasonality, just from how things have played out over the past almost three decades the past 25 years. Specifically, a huge week.

Last week was a little bit quiet. there weren't that many big announcements. Yeah, we had some movement in the market, but not the craziest. volatility.

this week is going to be nuts. I Mean we have the CPI report. We have the PPI report. We have consumer sentiment, We have retail sales.

We have the Fomc meeting results. We have quadruple witching on Friday We have two fed speakers speaking like there's a lot going on this week is gonna be insane. High Octane. I mean we're already seeing it right now with the Futures market.

Like the contracts in the S P 500 Uh, they're all kind of rolling over and many other their asset classes as well. So with that role, we're already seeing some like crazy things and I think that volatility will be continuing to Friday especially when you consider all the other ridiculous things that are going on. So this week I would very much argue relative to last week. should be a lot more fun, a lot more exciting, big announcements, big decisions, big movements in the market.

So I think we're gonna definitely be having a fun one. So uh, obviously I want to go over just some of the recent news I Want to go over some of the seasonality I Want to go over I'll give you an update on my positions. but really I think the major thing going to be leading this week? the main thing to be honed in on is what's going on with inflation and not obviously tied to that is what's going on with the Fed. So we get the CPI report on Tuesday the PPI report on Wednesday the Fomc results on Wednesday and that is all inherently tied to the FED Are they going to be dovish? Are they going to be the hawkish? How's the the market going to interpret it? So especially when this is all coming at potentially either a big breakout or big rejection level in the Spy We are at a very, very important level here in the low 430s on Spy, so are we going to get the breakout? Is it going to be a fake outbreak out? Are we just just going to get smacked And it's going to be a breakdown? but not only is it at a technically important level just where we've previously been rejected, but we're at an important FIB level.

We're at an important psychological level. There's a lot going on, which is exactly why I Think this is going to be Beyond exciting I I Truly truly think this is going to be, uh, an awesome week. so hopefully we can make some amazing amazing trades. Now if you haven't already before, we get into all the good stuff.

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Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezies Obviously shout out to the street B Team for being a partner with us and sponsoring today's stream. and with that out of the way, let's take a little look you see at the overall Market despite crazy good end of the week Thursday Friday Big push from 426 all the way up to 432. then it got smacked midday and then it kind of just petered out and right here when you see this type of movement especially on a Friday a huge movement and then it makes a fresh low and then from there it does nothing. classic premium burn in this later half of the day.

the latter half I should say the Bulls the Bears whether you're playing calls or puts all just kind of got a little screwed because the volatility dried up, but hey, that's a classic Friday Heading into a beautiful summer weekend. But now that leads us to Monday morning where ideally things are going to get very, very exciting and I'll be getting into the specifics of that in a hot second. Uh I was looking at the NASDAQ and video holding right around 390. Netflix coming down a little bit but Netflix even itself had a nice push to 426.

remember I got into this around 397 398. I'm actually looking for it to go up to 450 and then if things get really crazy crazy, potentially 500. so still soon in the calls on that. But I'll go over all that in just one second.

Let's take a step back. Stack: Futures Rise as Traders Look ahead to key inflation data Fed meeting. That's the name of the game this week. What's going on with inflation? What's going on with the inflation reports, and what's going on with the Fed and their battle against inflation.

That is the name of the game for this week. But first, speaking of this week: I Want you to know that? obviously we're right about here. Uh, the first part of June from a seasonal standpoint is a bit bullish, then the next week from a seasonal standpoint a bit bearish. So we're roughly in this range right now.

Uh, bearish. Maybe a little bit choppy, maybe a little bit neutral. So I want you to just remember: take a step back. Understand what June historically gives us? Is this a promise of what's going to be coming? Definitively absolutely not.

But it just gives us a better idea of Are We running into headwinds. Are we being supported by Tailwinds So overall, June a bit choppy. Uh, you're I'm gonna give you the odds for today specifically, but in general Monday Tuesday of this week slightly favoring the Bears Wednesday and Thursday especially Thursday favoring the Bulls and then by the time we get to Friday historically it's just neutral. So this week itself is kind of representing the chop that you really do see in the first three quarters I would argue of June and then remember the end of June definitely bearish.

and then by the time you get to the very very end to almost the entire July you have a huge bullish push, so just want everyone to be a little bit anchored on like what the average movement is here now refining it a little bit for this week today. Tuesday or excuse me today Monday 2 P.m we get the Federal Budget I'm not expecting the biggest movement in the market because of that, but then tomorrow starting at 8 30. Yes, we will be streaming early tomorrow because at 8 30 a.m we get the CPI report, the Consumer Price Index. It's in terms of the media, it's the most popular inflation report, but according to the FED they actually rate the PPI with more weight and that comes out Wednesday and then on Wednesday.

We also get the Fomc decision at 2PM this is all in ET and then Jerome Powell will be speaking at 2 30. on Thursday we get the normal initial jobless claims and last week a little bit of a surprise and then on Friday or I think we also get retail sales Yeah, retail sales also on Thursday and then on Friday we get two Fed members speaking I Don't know why they only have one here, but we get Waller and another one and then also consumer sentiment. So this week it's like just chock full of huge huge announcements now, once again, refining it another level. Here's the seasonality of today: S P 500 seasonal bias today Monday June 12th The Bulls Over the past 25 years, over the past two and a half decades, the Bulls have won this day a third of the time.

I.E The Bears have won it two-thirds of the time. A profit factor of 0.39 Every dollar spent in the bullish Direction has only returned 39 cents, which is obviously a loss of almost 60 percent. And this is what it's like to buy it open, sell that close on this exact day. over the past two and a half years, so kind of trending down and then recently more large losses Once again, as I alluded to before, is this in any form a guarantee that today has to be bearish? No, there's There's about a whatever a 64 chance of it.

it's two-thirds to one-third so you have to know those odds like it's just basic odds here. Uh, I mean even on Friday it was roughly in these numbers and it was still the bullish day. So sometimes the smaller odd situation does play out. But uh, you have to look at it as a series of bets you never want to be Psy So much that like one individual that can like blow you up.

Uh, and that's just the game of a series of bets. think of this as a series, not as one individual thing. I Think that's the best way to not only think of seasonality, but just like a trading methodology in a general sense. As of now, the Dow, the S P and the NASDAQ are all green with the NASDAQ up almost half a percent oil getting smoked.

We will be talking about that oil trading at 68 a barrel and yields essentially unchanged Morgan Stanley and Goldman at odds an S P 500 bull market rally. So where we are on the daily chart brings up an interesting question. Let me switch over to the weekly just because I think it'll clean it up. But as you can see here, we ripped because of quantitative Easing rates being at zero for pretty much all of 2020.

Then in 2021, we started putting in lower highs, lower lows and we got messed up pretty good here at the low in of roughly mid-october and now you could see that we've been putting in higher highs and higher lows. and this actually brings us up to this recent high if you're looking at August of 22. we're at that level and this is the goal in question of: are we going to keep going? Are we going to just get smacked and sell off and break this low at 380 and come all the way back down? Or is it a fake outbreak out? or is it a break and then a little bit of consolidation and a continuation? The point here is we are at an important level. The question is, do we keep going or do we get rejected with any variation in there of how that could play out? But I cannot illustrate this enough of right here.

Three: What is this? Uh, 431, 432. That's exactly where we're at right now. Not only is this a big week in terms of monetary policy updates, fiscal policy updates, just economic updates in a general sense, but directly in the stock market. it's a huge update of what in the world's going on.

I mean look how many green weeks in a row we've had I see three little baby red weeks and other than that, everything's just been green green, green, green and absolute Barren burner as Rick Centelli would say and now this is pushed so hard we're at this key level. Could be a breakout, Could be a fake out. Breakout could be a rejection. Could be just a rejection to a bit of consolidation, giving us a cup and handle and then a real rip.

This is a huge level of resistance and whenever you come to a level of resistance, you don't know unless you're Clairvoyant Unless you could tell the future, You simply just do not know if we're gonna break and hold and rip or what's gonna happen here. But all I can tell you is not only are we at a key level in the market, but it's obviously going to be be influenced by what goes on with the CPI the PPI the Fomc decision retail sales, consumer sentiment quadruple witching itself, which is technically this Friday. But for all my Futures Traders I want you to know that almost all the contracts are getting rolled as of today? Lots of confusion there because we're going from what January the March contract or whatever it is the June contract to the September contract right now. so there's obviously a bit of a disparity there, so you can see a giant jump in the Es.

Actually let me show you this if we go to the 15-minute overnight session. This actually wasn't a gap up right here there. It looks as if we closed at 4 300, then opened up at 4 340.. No, there wasn't a gap up.

Uh, this is very much just because of the contract role and you can see that they're I mean a little bit better here. Well, the timing would SPX showed a little bit the right there. a little bit different so it was closer to about five points instead of 40 points. So we did come up, but not as much as the Futures Market would have you believe.

and that's exclusively because of, uh, like the disparity in the contract role. But that's a side note just for my Futures traders who are currently listening. But anyway, the golden question here is do we continue? or don't we and I like to really I guess Highlight the fact that even the paid professionals who are allegedly experts within the world of trading and markets and investing in everything in between, they can't even make up their mind. Goldman Sachs Uh, David Costen expects the gains to continue as other sectors catch up with this searing rally for Technology shares.

Remember, most of this game comes from like the top seven stocks, which are essentially all tech stocks. That's most of the game in the S P 500. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson meanwhile points instead to the Bear Market Rally of the 1940s when the S P 500 rallied 24 before returning to a new low. So once again, this is very much mainly a guessing game when you have Goldman and Morgan who are both just kind of say we don't really know and in fact they don't know to the point that they're Polar Opposites There's no major consensus here.

Morgan Stanley is saying one thing Goldman sang another JP Morgan's probably out and doing their own thing too. We probably have multiple options here. More are declaring that the Bear Market rally is a Bear Market is officially over. We respectfully disagree due to our 2023 ER ear earnings forecast and they think that there's just going to be some misses in here and you could check this out.

This is all in Bloomberg if you want to read it over yourself and it's definitely a good read if you ask me. and I'm not much of a macro guy I very much just like to base my number on like odds of like we've seen this situation before. This is the percentage chance of it going up. This is the percentage chance of it going down.

Uh, because I'm not traditionally trained in making big macro call outs here. If you ask me simply following what has happened historically with the FED as in when they rate or when they jack up rates then keep it constant. Then they cut it from the moment of starting to cut it, that's typically still going to lead to a large sell-off within the equity. Market That happened from the 60s all the way up to 2019.

Whenever they start to cut rates, they're still well. There's always been, at least historically speaking, who knows. This time around might be a completely different time, but historically speaking, that's always led to a double-digit sell-off With the median around like the high 30s low 40 percent. it's a serious sell-off.

So I'm just going on things that have happened historically. Obviously this time around, yes, it could be a different thing, but if you had to ask me, I don't think that we're rippity skippity doodle yet I'm not at the point where I'm like, oh man I should really be like loading into my long-term investment account I Think that opportunity will most likely come later this year September October November That's still the mindset that I have I've been pitching that for a couple months now. Uh, I'm sitting with it. We'll see how it all goes.

Obviously I might be spot on or maybe I'm horrendously wrong. but I don't think whenever we have this mindset or that feeling like almost like that weird human psychology thing where you're like oh, I gotta get in now or I'm gonna miss it generally like a hot like 99 of the time. That's never true if you're thinking about it for long-term investing or if you're thinking even it is like day training you don't that that thing of that feeling where you're like I have to get in right now, at least for me personally, that's just never typically right. Generally if I wait and have a bit more patience I could get better fills or avoid bad trades in a like more of a general sense so just wanted to share that with all of you fed backs away from wages Focus bolstering case for rate pause.

So kind of interesting this: Wednesday At 2 p.m we will get the results of the Fomc meeting which technically starts tomorrow. It's a two-day meeting, starts on Tuesday concludes on Wednesday. But anyway, as I'm saying this, live to you All now there's a 75 chance that we get no rate hike once again as I'm saying this to you now, live on Monday There's a 75 percent chance that rates remain unchanged. Which means that there's a 25 chance that they actually raise it another 0.25 25 bips.

So that's how we're looking for the June Meaning this obviously comes out on June 14th. The results the next one is July 26th And this is kind of where it gets interesting. Is the odds? Hang on If this loads why I cannot get the July to load For some weird reason, there's actually a greater chance of an actual rate hike in July Uh, obviously a lot of these all this website's just not loading at all right now. I Guess we'll have to come back to this.

Just kind of interesting. uh, of where things currently lie. Two weeks ago, there was a huge percentage chance, like a 70 80 chance that we would get a 25 bips this month. and now essentially those odds have shifted down to July.

So as things currently stand before, we get the CPI report before we get the PPI report before we have that information. As of now, there's a greater chance than not that we do nothing with the rate this time around. and then basically if nothing happens this time's around, the odds are for an increase. an additional 25 bips in Late July of this year just so everyone knows.

Uh, but this website is I Guess having a tough time this morning as fed signals rate pause Powell will have to placate. Hawks Officials are expected to skip hike after a year of increases. Some policy makers worry inflation isn't falling quickly enough. but let's start with the FED because we're not just talking about a potential hike or a pause even though Larry and they're talking about this.

Skip the skip. The skip. The skin that came out of the blue about three weeks ago. Sherry It's very interesting.

Maybe it's just you need a third category when it's so hard to decide after the FED has hiked rates month after month, meeting after meeting. uh, since. Well, it's 15 months now. So Powell Also very interesting.

On May 19th, this was one of the first. He didn't say skip, but he said very clearly that it's time for the FED to pause they can afford. He didn't say pause. they can afford to look at the data, take time to make careful assessments, and of course, that's uh, after they've done 525 basis points worth of raid hikes and of course it was a Muhammad alien Just said the market had been hiking pricing in the hike I like that after Christian Waller a Fed Governor Spoke on May 24th and said he thinks the the FED could take some time to assess the data.

Patrick Harkersman from the Philadelphia He's been arguing pretty ardently for this Raphael Bostic says if there's if they could definitely pause or there is another move, it will be a hike, but he seems sort of in that camp as well and Tom Barker from the Richmond Fed. Similarly, he says he's open to watching the data. We've gotten the employment report that was stronger than was forecast and now we're waiting for the CPI report on Tuesday but all of them are open to the pause. Now the hikes open to the pause are the people who want to go ahead: Jim Bullard from the Uh St Louis Fed Loretta Mester from the Cleveland Fed Neil Kashgar from Minneapolis Lori Logan from Dallas I mean I've had another fed Governor Michelle Bowman are still concerned that more needs to be done.

In fact, that's why some people think there could be a policy dissent or two. That's not what benefit chairs want to see. All the recent ones have been unanimous also going to be in focus. and of course that's the Dot Plot.

Every three months, the summer of economic projections are revised and from their outlook on GDP employment, unemployment, and I'll cover that more on Wednesday, you don't have to worry about it now. Well, here, the idea is pretty simple. They did think that by the end of this year, the core deflator the PC deflator would be down to about 3.2 percent ago. It's a long way.

I Need those glasses? Uh GDP is probably going to be stronger than they expected. And inflation? You know? Besides that being higher, there's a lot of things that they're going to have to catch up with. So uh, basically. uh, the guidance at this point is going to be very important as well.

It's a busy week. Kathleen Brj, ACB ppoc all meeting this week? What are we expecting? Well, Bank of Japan it's uh, uh, Governor Cuisio, where there's a second meeting at the first. All right, we don't need the rest of that. Um, obviously it's gonna have an implication, but I Think for us and our purposes, we're much more focused on what's going on in the US.

But yeah, there are obviously Global decisions that need to be considered because they could still have a considerable impact. Uh, but shout out to Japan Uh, Japan's market and the German Market are looking. The Nike and the Dax respectively are looking really, really good, especially for any of my International Traders Probably worthwhile to pay attention to. Speaking of inflation, from Florida to California the 10 U.S cities where inflation is still Rising the most, we'll start at 10 and rip it up to Numero Uno Starting off the list, we have Houston The Woodlands Sugarland Texas one year increase 5.2 percent and over the past two months we're in at 1.9 San Diego to Carlsbad we have 5, 0.3 and one percent respectively.

Chicago we have 4.8 and 1.6 number seven Denver, 5.7 and 1.3 Dallas Fort Worth We have 5.8 and 1.3 over the past two months Seattle 6.9 nice and two months is one percent Tampa 7.7 and 1.1 And now for the top three: Phoenix You have a one year increase of 7.4 percent in a two month of 1.5 percent Detroit one year coming at 6.6 So over the past two months we have 2.1 percent and Numero Uno Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Florida The one-year inflation increase is nine percent with the two-month increase coming in at a blistering 1.4 If you live in a place that's anywhere on this list. my condolences Because that is a brutal brutal inflation rate. You folks do not want to be on this list. I Mean there's some very nice States in here.

There's some very nice towns and cities on this list, but that inflation is absolutely brutal so just wanted to share that with all of you. Goldman Sachs is oil price forecast by nearly 10 as Russian Supply recovers Russian Supply recovers. That's exactly why you have oil getting busted up. oil going from 75 to 68 as quick as a New York City minute.

Uh, so that's falling because obviously when Supply goes up, demand stays the same price. has to drop. Classic econ lesson from high school that we're all very familiar with. Uh, we'll come back to this just because it's a story we've been following a little bit between: PGA Live golf all that, but the belt is about to go ding ding.

So here is the plan for the remainder of today's show. First of all, step one. Everyone hit the like button. Everyone hit the sub button I Do appreciate it.

Thank you thank you thank you! Helps me out more than you could possibly imagine. If you're watching right now and you like this kind of stuff, help out with the YouTube algorithm. Help out with the rumble battle leaderboard. Destroy the like button, Destroy the sub button.

It's completely free. It means a lot. Thank you thank you thank you. Beyond that, we're going to watch the market open for the first 10 20 30 minutes from there.

Obviously as the news comes in, let me know we'll go over it and we're going to do some chart review in a little bit. We're gonna have everyone just call out whatever major tickers, indexes equities ETFs you want to look at, we'll do some basic chart technical analysis. If you have questions about options, this that the other thing if I know the answer I'll share it. if not, I'll look it up and I'll let you know later on.

Don't forget we will be streaming once again today for Power Hour to see how things conclude. We're going to be talking a lot about inflation the FED because that's going to be the main driver of the market this week. We have a lot to get into and with that being said, Ding Ding Ding! The casino is open. Best of luck.

Play responsibly if not have fun. Oh brother. nice green Open nice green open. So if you are watching the one, we might as well throw up Tesla just because that's been ripping to Tesla wants that 250? But in terms of the overall Market Uh, just want you to know that here.

let me go back to the Daily. The level I very much care about is basically just under 432. that is, look at the high from Friday but also look at the August high from last year 432. This low 430s is incredibly important.

a breakout and a hold above that is extraordinarily bullish. but we also might just get smacked because we're at that key resistance level and it's called resistance for a reason. So obviously I'm watching that. and then if we do get smacked, the interesting breakdown level would be come from would come from Friday's low, which is around 428.87 potentially setting up a bit of a peak formation, but obviously time will tell so we're gonna have to be a bit patient to see how this all plays out.

Now in terms of my positions, as we're just letting the market open here, let me do a quick review of all of this here. Let me see where we're at: I have spy puts 425 423 coin puts of June 16th for 40. Q puts uh for June 23rd at 3 47. Teo puts Teo is just that new Hindenburg research one target uh puts for 420 or excuse me 125 June 23rd I have Nvidia calls for three? no Nvidia puts for 350.

Netflix calls for 450. So those are all my positions I believe I have eight positions on right now. Um, they're not looking the best. those the spy and the Q-plus are kind of screwing me over, but the target puts and the Netflix calls are crushing it.

so uh, could be better. could be worse, but we'll see how today really ends up shaking things out. Um, basically I kind of want everything to crumble except for Netflix I would love everyone's bullish money to go into Netflix and then everything else to sell off. That would be amazing in my book.

I Don't know if that's gonna happen, but that's definitely what I'm rooting for. I Currently have no position on Tesla but it is fun just to see Tesla rip. Uh, there's a special enthusiasm within the Tesla group that it's always fun to see how much that can go rippity skippity doo-dah So paying attention to all that uh as of now. Whoa you guys I asked you guys to vote on over here on YouTube land with the poll 50.

You guys are 50 50 today. Interesting. Oh wait, no never mind. 51 of you said bullish, 24 of you said bears and then 24 of you said LOL What? Um, so I'm gonna say favoring the Bulls but then also a decent showing for just straight up confusion on the day.

Uh so for any of you who want to be sentiment Traders based on my chat, um, a good quarter of you are just you're like hey man I have no idea. This just feels like pure guesswork. This has nothing to do with the market, but in case you guys missed the news, uh, the Unabomber uh has passed away uh he I believe died in prison. Oh Rum is looking good.

Yeah, someone just called out Rum for pushing uh that 10.50 I Cannot express how much uh of a like exciting potential massive breakout this is. Look at Rum. we're getting Above This high on Thursday Feb Second, like rum stock is cooking. if it can hold above this I think it shoots up to 11 rapidly.

I'm invested in rum I Just want you to know my average is closer to 950 ish. So I'm looking good right now up about a dollar. Uh I I'm not actively trading it I'm invested in it. If it does squeeze because the utilization is jacked up, the cost of borrow is higher.

Uh, basically all the utilization is 100. All the shares that could be short against Rumble are currently short against it. or at least they're out on loan. We have certain research firms like Culper research who are shorted and they are getting their ass handed to them I Highly doubt they got out of the position and if they did, it might push it even higher.

So from a technical perspective I'd like to break out I'm looking for the hold from just more of a I guess a new situation. We know there's people betting against it and they're getting screwed and then on top of that, we know they're They're signing. Impressive People Kai and I show speed. Two of the biggest streamers in the world are currently on Rum.

Uh rumbled, they're on their website. Uh, we're on Rumble So if you're watching right here, Uh, exciting stuff going on I very much want this to hold and then the next test is at 11. let me just add an alert there. uh this this could get wild on rum and then you guys also just saw that alert of Target breaking down.

Nope. Target uh Target kind of go in the way of Bud Light go in the way of Anheuser-Busch getting screwed I do have Target puts Target 125s for June 23rd they're currently up 45 This was all called out on locals. Uh I have 20 of those bad boys currently up 45 I'm looking to take some I have 20. uh I'll take half off I have 20 puts I'm gonna take hot half off at 125 because why not? Um, that like I'm not calling that out randomly.

it's just an important level from the past. Uh, it'll probably be better if I just make this weekly. You can kind of see that right here. we have some Port we have some resistance so I want to pyramid out.

it might keep going I'm not going to say that this is the bottom and we're going to bounce from here I see targets under a lot of pressure from there? I'd be watching 115 but why not skill out I mean I'm up 45 my spy my Q puts aren't looking the best so why not be safe like I'm I'm playing a little bit on the defense right now and this is just portfolio management. Can it keep going 100? It could keep going, but why not scale out? You don't have to go all in and all out at once. So today if Target continues to show some weakness. uh, definitely looking for an opportunity to take some money off the table here.

Let me add an alert, add an alert and this target play. This is now the second time made some good money. Uh, here let me explain the overall Target trade I got into Target the first time on this breakdown at 137 138 I was risking 140, wrote it down here and I took off some profits into the bounce. Uh then I took off the rest and then when it started showing weakness once again on the June the 5th I re-entered had one crappy day and then from there it was boring, boring and then it started to break down.

So two major different trades on target same direction. but um, it wrote this down. took some profits, waited for this re-entered I was a little bit early, one day of pain, two days of boringness and then things got exciting on Friday And obviously they're getting more exciting now, so if that keeps going, it'll be time to hopefully let that pay. Rum is just ripping.

Rum is looking nice. Rum the next Target is 11, but rum's having a great day. Had a great day Friday Love to see that continuation Nvidia Not really doing too much much Netflix maybe looking good. That's the other play that I'm currently up on Netflix currently up? um 45.

So both the Target and the Netflix play are both up 45. Uh, the other ones are getting a little smack a rude right now, but we'll see how this all plays out. We'll see how it all plays out. A lot of time left in the game today.

Uh, the Netflix one is for July Late July so I'm not like I guess feeling the most pressure to get out of Netflix just because I have all the way until July 21st I Want to say Netflix yeah July 21st. So I have all the way out to like here. So this vertical line and when I when I switch it over to the weekly? what I'm seeing is a trendline breakout and hold three or two green weeks. ideally putting in a third one and it's breaking above whatever.

this is 4 13 414 this high that I'm seeing from February of 22.. So for me, the next realistic Target is essentially 460. so I would love to see Netflix at 460. I know it's a bit away, we're trading at 421, that's another 40.

But I also have time I have five weeks for this to play out and then even from there, if you go to the Daily, you'll see above 460. we actually have an upside gaffle all the way up to 507. So I definitely I know I'm swinging for the fences on this trade, but I'm feeling good I am feeling good. Obviously it's far enough away from my entry now where it would be just logical to set my break even or set my stop to break even just so the play doesn't cost me any money.

but I'm just trying to follow the trend on this one. so this one's the entry was pretty much all the way back here. Like I said, it was around 396 395. it was in one of these days and ever since then just been kind of riding it, writing it, riding it.

But I really like this breakout. Speaking of breakouts, I have no position here but I do want to call it out Shopify broke out, got smacked, found support at this trend line, and now Shopify is picking back up. So once again I have no position on it. but I do like how this is favoring the Bulls a nice reaffirmation of the trend line, the bounce and pushing once again.

so maybe that's something you want to put on your watch list. Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse Giving us a little bit of a breather I still have no position on Texas Roadhouse unfortunately. but maybe just maybe it'll come down here to a good buy Zone Uh, Google almost had its own Darvis Box breakout a fake out breakout that we saw in the mid of last week and now we're just once again at the bottom region of its consolidation. So maybe look for this breakdown of 120 or look for the breakout of 126.

Microsoft Making a bit of a recovery, but looks like a difficult trade Apple Sitting right below its all-time low, sitting right below its three trillion dollar market cap. but uh, right at a trend line. so I would be a little hesitant of going long on that for now. Uh, just because your risk is far away, your risk is 177 and what's your reward? 185 When you're trading at 182 the risk reward, it is looking bullish.

The Bulls have momentum there. It's just the risk reward is not necessarily favorable to you. Speaking of risk reward one that everyone's been asking me about. Palantir palantir looking crazy, crazy strong.

It's just if you were to get in here, what's your risk level? Is it 1440? So a dollar forty? But what's your upside? Like Palantir has just been Rip City Ever since its earnings the Bulls have momentum. It's just for me. It seems difficult to enter at this moment so just wanted to bring that up, but it is looking very good. uh AI kind of stalling out Nvidia I Almost was like getting into my capitulation breakdown but then it recovered on Thursday did fine on Friday closed even higher and now I I just really, really need Nvidia to get this breakdown and it uh, thus far is just going sideways.

Unfortunately, if it pushes above 403 I'm screwed because then that means it could be setting up once again. I've been looking at the the price action pop and then we had some volume exhaustion. It's just I'm just not getting that breakdown to the bottom side as I thought I would coin. Speaking of coin, so coin dropped horribly on Tuesday the sixth because of the SEC going against binance on Mondays and the very next day obviously coming against Coinbase I Want you to know that tomorrow the 13th Tuesday June the 13th.

we are going to be getting another sec coinbase regulatory update so probably something to pay attention to I still have those puts a little bit of a YOLO call I'm surprised that it got this bounce at all I don't understand how in this situation no one is calling out Brian arms strong for this deal and in a weird way I'm on his side because I think that the SEC is overreaching but I think that there was some shady stuff going on on the back end because in late May like three weeks ago four weeks ago Brian Armstrong sold all this stock in coinbase. the CEO of coinbase sold all of his stock before the SEC came like like crushing down on him. Uh, so I think there was some sus things there and I don't really see anyone calling it out and maybe there's just a little bit more interested in like what's going to play out on the regulatory side. but it's hard for me to believe that the CEO when he sold all of his stock was just that lucky with timing like I I just find it a little bit suspect I see some people calling out AAL Americans looking really good What? I like a bit more is Southwest just because of this nice technical breakout.

we had an alert on that around 30 31 training at 3160. um honestly you might just be able to ride this one I was I have no position on Southwest but airlines are looking good. We know oil prices are coming down a bit. uh I would be looking higher but it might take quite a bit of time.

So if anything, if I had a plate which I have no position on these right now, I might just buy some stock just so I can basically hold it for as long as I want without worrying about like Theta Decay and maybe try to ride it back up. But I really like the technical breakout I like the risk reward but I'm the airline industry looking good. the stocks are looking good, but I'm particularly liking the risk reward setup on Southwest ticker symbol Luv Sofi Rocketing Yeah, as the odds are increasing that people are going to have to start paying back their student debt. Uh, so far will benefit from that because they were ones who gave out a lot of loans and obviously it's good for them if money comes back in and it's just not completely like forgotten by the current.

Administration So so far looking good about with that? uh, no position there Personally, Carvana, you're starting to get to this craziness. See the SIM similarities between what's going on now and what's going on. Recently it started to pop, then it. Consolidated then it really ripped and then it got smacked.

Look at this. we popped we Consolidated we popped Consolidated a little bit more. then things got crazy, which last time around led to basically the start of the end. So I don't know how this is going to play out, but I would be extraordinarily extraordinarily cautious of going long on Carvana.

I'm not a fan of their business model I don't know how it's surviving as a business fundamentally. I'm not a fan of it. but also the fundamentals aren't necessarily what makes or loses you money. That's the price action in the market and just looking at the recent pump consolidation pump, then dump.

I'm seeing a lot of similarities this time around and also if you zoom out, this is what Carvana has done. for basically all of its like historic trading. Uh, it just is. Pumps gets people money.

To the upside. uh, the people who will hold on too long end up getting burned. The people who are quick and agile make money to the upside and make money. To the downside, this isn't me being supportive or against Carvana in terms of an investment.

I Don't think you should invest in it. That's just my own opinion. You got to do what's right for you. But for me, it's an active trade both to the upside and to the downside.

I Do not think that this pump will last. Could it keep going? Of course it could. I'm not here to call out the tops or the bottoms I'm more just so saying of: I This isn't something I would just arbitrarily dime in hand and invest in because I do think that the price comes back down. but I'm also saying that as a person with absolutely no position, I'm not long I'm not short I'm not training Carvana, simply just sharing my opinion on it.

All right? Where are we? The market not looking like it's just went sideways, down, up down so nothing too crazy. Rum is looking good. Rum is the exciting watch thus far of the first 15 minutes of the day today. Monday I mean rum stock is crushing him.

Shout out to the Rum Chat if you're on Rumble chat right now or YouTube chat I'm curious how many of you are in Rum, whether you're invested in it or even just actively training it. Once again, myself I'm invested in it. My average is around 9.50 a little bit north of 9.50 but I'm just curious how many of you are getting a piece of this action right now. Uh, in Brian Diesden quad witching Friday Yes, quadruple witching is Friday uh bruh Matt hates YouTube trap Trex It's not YouTube chat.

it's just you personally. I'm messing around man. Uh, 185 at 888 Who thinks they have the best average on rum and you're not allowed to lie. Obviously you can't prove it to me in real time.

But who thinks they have the best average on their rum stock? Uh, I mean obviously some someone's in at 8.99 someone's in that. I mean we have to have some sixes and sevens in here, right? The rum is not gone. Uh-oh There Goes My Coaster average is 970. 343 Is that possible? Tyler Did rum even get that low? Or have you been selling premium against it or something? Rum and Rum: 915 790 Well, here's to hoping it can break and hold Above all right right here: Target Breaking down: I'm gonna have to sell I'm gonna sell a quarter of my position Uh Target I have 125 puts for June 23rd I'm in at 167.

they're trading at 265. I'm up 58. You know what? I'm gonna do close position, close order Answer: I have 20. I'm gonna sell five of these I'm selling a quarter of my position slowly but surely scaling out.

Uh, I'm in at 167. So I'm gonna sell at 268 a dollar and a cent a quarter of my position I'm going to put that order in and I'll let you know if it gets filled I'll let you know if it gets filled. uh Nvidia Nvidia well that's not playing out how I want it Netflix is up 30 so coming down a little bit uh Target I guess a little bit of a bounce judging by the fact I didn't get filled. Yeah, we're at this support level if it bounces a lot.

I might have to change some things up, but uh, trying to scale out slowly but surely ooh, someone has a 747 average on rum. Can you explain Vixen why it being so low is bearish. Oh so Vix is literally the volatility of the S P 500. It's a measure of the volatility of SPX Remember SPX is the actual S P 500 Index spy is an ETF tracking it and Es is the Futures Contract tracking it.

So the main, the main S P 500. When people say that a lot of the time they're referencing the Spy, but in reality they should be referencing SPX the actual index. Uh, which has happened? Oh, I Just got to fill five. One quarter of my target position just got filled for a gain of whatever the hell that gain would be around 58 59.

So we just here. We gotta celebrate. You gotta celebrate the little things because a lot of my positions looks like shit right now. So locking in some of those gains, Where's my soundboard soundboard soundboard? Did I lose my soundboard on board? Nope.

I can't find my sound board. This is problematic. sounds. Got it? Wall Street Awesome.

So locked in 25 of the position on target for a 58 59 gain. and then if it keeps selling, obviously I'll just slowly slowly scale out. Anyway, back to Joe's question of what is the Vix? So you can look at the S P 500 which is the SPX And then you can look at Vix, which is the volatility of the S P 500. As things sell off, volatility increases as things go up in like kind of a stepwise manner.

Obviously, volatility decreases. They move inversely. Typically, when you see the SPX going up, the Spy, the S P 500 going up, you see volatility going down, and then obviously vice versa. If you see volatility spiking, there's a very good chance that the market is selling off.

Now your question was, when the vix is this low, why is that bearish? Because people are just looking at mean reversion if you look at the vix being this low at almost like kind of historic lows in 21 and not that far away from lows that we saw in 2020 and 2019. Right here at 12, Uh, people are just looking for reversion, They're like, well, if it's beaten down this low, good chance that the volatility starts to pop and if volatility is going up. obviously the S P 500 is going down and then this is happening in the exact same time that we're potentially seeing like a double top. Here, we're running potentially into resistance from August of 22, so there could be a rejection here.

Now, obviously, if it keeps going, if the overall Market keeps going, you could look for volatility to continue to sell off. None of this is guaranteed, but people are just looking at the odds of the situation they're like. Okay, well hang on. We know late June favors the Bears From a seasonality standpoint, we know we still have inflation, We know the Market's coming up to resistance, and we know volatility is very low at support.

So they're just saying there's reasonable thought here that maybe there's a big reversion coming. Will it definitively come? I Have no idea. I Don't think anyone on this planet could tell you anything's definitively going to happen, but that's the argument of what they're looking at. Um so.

And also this is is a little bit more abstract, but the classic fear versus Green index of be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. Well, right now, there's a lot of greedy people out there. Like the the Fear Greed Index it people are being very greedy.

There's obviously with I mean look at this recent push. I mean if we have the push from mid-march till now, you have a lot of people who are strongly bullish, making money and feeling good about themselves. So there's kind of that higher level, more abstract argument of or is this group of bulls about to get screwed. Are they a little bit too confident? You don't know we could break and we can run.

And maybe it's the shorts. Were getting a little bit too confident here that are about to get blown out? Totally possible. And in either direction, you can make money. Being a bull, you can make money.

Being a bear, you just don't make money. Being a hog. Don't be greedy. Use your riskery ward.

Scale in, scale out, Stick to your plan. Sometimes your plan goes bust. Yours That happened. you're You're never ever gonna find anyone on this planet who's a legitimate Trader who somehow makes money magically on every single trade.

It does not exist. In fact, a lot of the like. Really, really good Traders I'm not talking about Investors But Traders They could lose 50 percent of the time. They could lose more than 50 of the time.

But the way they end up being profitable is just from risk to reward management. It's from sticking to their plan. It's from having monk-like discipline. That's all this is thus far.

we are now 23 minutes into the day. We've done a good job of going absolutely nowhere in the market Tesla Coming down a little bit Microsoft Coming down Google Coming down Apple Popped a little coming down, but the spies going the opposite way. Is it? because let's look at some of these oil plays: oils going up so you have oxy trying to get back up to 60. oil itself is at below 68 a barrel.

Interesting. Uh Exxon popping CVX you have Chevron also popping. Let's look at the airlines Luv Looking good Delta Looking good American looking good. Uh, so the airline plays are looking pretty solid this morning Target Um, low 125s I need to set up an alert just in case this bounces I Remember I'm still just trying to write it down and down and down.

So Target Looking weak which is good for many of us in here Walmart Kind of going sideways Dollar General Showing some weakness, what else do we have? Palantir has been a popular one. Huge pop coming down right now. Ai actually making a recovery Netflix Trading just below 419 Nvidia got was at 392 smack down to 388 Interesting Nvidia just sideways, sideways, sideways and then at 9 45 just smacked uh AMD kind of the same thing right at 9 45 smack Micron actually looking good today Bullish Intel Looking good looking bullish Meta popped consolidating 267 268 Amazon Doing the exact same thing. trying to think of the other popular ones.

Gme just had their earnings crazy situation. making a recovery but still down relative to where it was. Huge drop from its earnings, but trying to. There is an upside gaffle play on Gme 22507 Uh, how's AMC doing nothing ape? Literally nothing.

What else do we have? What else? What else? What else? What else? Rum still looking good today. Now at 10.75 we're looking for the test and the breakout of 11.. remember in terms of um, like announcements today, Tesla there here we'll put a video up here. Uh, where's Target I Want to put Target on one of these? We'll put Target up here I Think this is a good good showing of what a lot of you are watching.

Uh, where were we? Where were we? CCL What's carnival up to? Carnival Carnival Cruises making uh getting a breakout coming up to its next level I'd watch the high 14s that would be the next level of Interest We see a resistance. we see a support. so right around just below 15 is what I would be watching next. Would I go long on Carnival Now God No the the risk is too high.

Uh, you have about what 60 cents of upside and your closest support is. two dollars of downside. I'm not risking that, but it is looking good if you're already in it. Yeah, ride the momentum.

Uh, how's Salesforce doing trying to make a recovery there? Uh, broadcom. Ooh Broadcom. getting a breakout? This is more of an expensive stock. So for the people in here, that with Deep Pockets this could be a nice play.

and at 428 risking 776, maybe a play all the way back up to this recent high of 9 20. uh, what else do we have? We checked Palantir Tio I'm looking for this breakdown I Want it sub a dollar? It's at 105. but I need this thing to very much break down. How are some of these Regional Banks doing wall.

Uh, almost at 40 trying to follow this trend line pack West same thing Kre. essentially the same thing. so Regional makes making a bit of recovery still representing some strength. Uh, what do we have going on Tesla bouncing turnaround Target cylinder mid 125s.

you do have a higher low on the spy in the one minute time frame I would argue maybe this kind of favoring the Bulls that we made a high low, but if it breaks right here, we're also making a lower high. So consolidation the Spy is clearly not trending in any particular direction today very well. very well. might be kind of like a chop day because we're just going to get huge announcements and events and developments throughout the week.

so maybe everyone's just kind of like waiting for one of those to actually happen very well. Could be the case very well. Could be the case. Happy Birthday! How's the SEO looking for a long-term investment? I Appreciate the birthday Wish Tsco, How's it? Looking for a long-term investment? Long-term Investments You don't really need the charts at all like that.

So if you're talking about long term, you want to look at the fundamentals. You want to look at the sector. It's in the growth of the sector. The growth of the company.

When you're talking about long-term the last week, month, year, five years, it doesn't really matter because you're looking for 20, 30 years. Um, so for Tsco I Can't fairly comment on it because I don't know anything about the company's fundamentals whatsoever. Like at all. Uh, so for that, that would be your own fundamental due diligence on the company.

Uh, Nike people calling out Nike what's going on with Nike NK Uh, looking weak Looking weak? Uh, a failed bounce attempts looks like it's going to the dial inside Gavla 10460 currently trading at 105. below that I would obviously be watching uh 102.90 and then you have another one right here. Uh, Nike's looking weak to me If you get the breakdown of 101, then you have this: Gap fill at 99. Uh yeah.

Nike Clearly sold off hard, tried to bounce, couldn't find support selling a bit more the risk reward I mean if you were to bet against it now, your risk would be in the region of 108 and some change. So you're risking about three and a half dollars, which your first Target is one to one. Oh, Target's bouncing right now. Worst: Target Target might be coming back around.

All right, let me make sure I have an alert set up just in case I Want to get out of some more? Remember, locked in a quarter of my position and this is why you scale out because sometimes it doesn't just keep completely capitulating in your favor. Uh, scale in, scale out I'm in at 166 and I sold my first batch at 167. Or maybe I'm off by a cent. but I don't know.

Roughly close enough. roughly close enough. Rum looking really good. like to see some.

This is some positivity. uh, some nice bullishness we haven't seen in a hot minute. If you go to or text here, I'll show you what's going on with rum and how Culpr research might be getting screwed pretty soon. Uh, here we go.

So in the top right. Utilization: 89.5 Cost about 25 shares on loan 8 million. Uh, we did some quick math on this estimated short interest percentage of the free float. I Think this is closer to 30 percent And the reasoning for the discrepancy here is when you do the estimated short interest, it's obviously x divided by y the shares thought to be short against the the publicly traded shares you have closely held.

then you have like publicly traded and that definition is a little bit wonky. Uh, it's not a clear-cut definition and depending on your data provider, they might be defining closely held shares differently in my opinion. After going through the SEC filing and specifically Rumble put out this uh PowerPoint presentation of how much Equity the current like board and Leadership of Rumble has I think the short I think that number of closely held shares is actually gonna end up being higher than what or text is considering which would actually be driving up the short interest because short interest is defined by the share short divided by the like loosely held shares and I think that ratio of loosely held versus closely held I think there's more closely held shares thanortex is really um, I guess Computing and I mean that's up to you. Feel free to like, read what? I read and I'm just looking at rumbles SEC filings and basically how many shares the leadership team has and really I'm talking about the CEO Chris Pavlovski.

Um I Think that the number that they're looking at is a little bit wrong, but regardless, if you don't care about that, what does matter is the magnitude. Shares on loan 8 million. Does that mean all 8 million are short against the company? No, not necessarily. But it could be as high as 8 million.

And with a stock that just doesn't trade that much volume, these shorts, if it keeps going, could get screwed very, very quickly. So these are the current numbers on Rum and it's going to get a lot more interesting to pay attention to when Rum gets above 11. just because we know that there's shorts. Um, there it's who's a culpr research and there's another one in there.

Maybe the Bear Cave or something like that. There was another short I Guess company that I think could get royally screwed at 11. especially because I mean look at this. this is I mean I think a lot of you are going to see what I'm seeing.

This is a clear breakout. Clear breakout at 10 54. next stop: I'm calling out 11 because we have, uh, just where it found support. L