I don't know. Yeah, yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah. foreign. ER Welcome back to another episode of the Matt Core Show Where your Mac cores and I'm the show today is Tuesday July 25th and man oh man, today is the start of the excitement.

This whole week is pretty exciting. Granted, yesterday, not really many earnings announcements, not really many macroeconomic reports. and that was also reflected in the price action where it went a little up, went a little down, went a little up, went a little down. But fear not, the party should be starting today.

We already got a slew of earnings announcements this morning, albeit not the most exciting stocks, but important ones Nonetheless, We heard from GM we heard from 3M we had from Verizon we heard from Raytheon we heard from Spotify some winners, some losers will be diving into those. but also is the Kickstart of the Consumer Sentiment report today 10 a.m and then from there we have all these other macroeconomic reports such as what's going on with crude oil that I believe actually comes out today or tomorrow. Then we have the Fomc decision we have pal speaking. We have the Pce report.

We have the GDP report. So basically for the rest of the week starting today at 10 A.M we have a lot of exciting macroeconomic reports and then also starting this evening we're really going to be kicking it off with earnings which after the market closed today, we have Google Microsoft and Snapchat three very, very very important Tech plays once again Google Microsoft Snapchat After the market closes today and then tomorrow's going to be crazy with the Fomc stuff and then on top of that, we're going to be going into Thursday where we hear from Meta and Ford it's going to be a good one. It's going to be a good one. It's going to be a good one.

So I know that maybe and just maybe you could argue. Yesterday was a little bit boring I scaled into a bit of a play on Meta M-e-t-a ticker so if you want to check that out, obviously that's pinned to the top of chat, it's in the description of the video. We're sure some of my trades other Traders share some of their trades. We just talk back and forth, share some ideas.

The Goonie Community Macross.locals.com pinned to the top of chat. In the description of the video, there's a free version. there's a premium version I think you're gonna enjoy both, so make sure you're checking it out. So that was my only trade of the day.

Yesterday it was getting into a Meta position I'm swinging a NASDAQ put play from Friday of last week. So I have two live trades. That's it. I haven't closed anything this week.

I Was just kind of waiting to see how things shake out. Obviously we're gonna get into these earnings. Maybe we can extrapolate to what it does mean, What it doesn't mean from some of these other players that are coming up. but I think the excitement gets going today at 10 A.M When we get the consumer sentiment report.

so I Hope you guys are ready I Hope you guys are ready to Rip Rock and Roll Ooh Rip Rock and Roll Rock and Roll and Rip Rip Rick Rock Rip and Roll I Think that could be a new saying of the channel or Rip Rock and Roll I Hope you guys are ready to Rip Rock and Roll Rock and Roll And Rip Rock Rip Roll Ripity Rock Roll Rip in Rock and Rolling Dude I Think that could be it I Think we're I think we're on to something. Rip Rock and Roll Dude: Today's gonna be a good day. It's always a good day when you end up coming up with a a whole new thing. and I I Think that one.

This could be it. It's gonna be a good day. I Have a sneaky, sneaky suspicion that we're all gonna make money today. So cheers to all you folks, it's going to be a good one.

It's gonna be a good one. Good luck, good luck, good luck. but we're not going to need it because obviously the market God's on are on our side. So I hope everyone had a good weekend.

I Hope everyone had a good start to the week even though yeah, granted it was a little bit boring. uh but I I Think things are really going to get rocking today. Uh man, the Spy heading into Market open right now. It was looking pretty strong in pre-market actually pushing the high from yesterday, but we've given back a full dollar.

The queues are holding their pre-market pop a little bit better. I'm surprised because Spotify is looking pretty weak, but obviously what really really matters is what happens today. So everyone. With that being said, if you want to help me out, don't forget to smash the like button helps out the YouTube algorithm helps out with the battle Leaderboard on Rumble and if you're watching on Twitter that's interesting because there's about 10 of you.

But anyway, do whatever you want on Twitter you know, have fun. Uh, for the rest of you, don't forget to like. Don't forget to subscribe. Subscribe very much helps out just so you know.

on Rumble I posted a very important video the top 10 trading patterns with proof with math I backed it all up. That video is also on YouTube but it's on the new YouTube channel. So um, that's in the description of the video right now. but if you just search Matt Core's top 10 training patterns.

The video was posted yesterday and I went into the math of all the major trading patterns like bull Flags bear, Flags channels, Head and Shoulder the pennant. all that good stuff I give you the exact odds of it working, not working and I ranked them out and then I give you the worst one. the best one. I Let you know a little bit about what my social life was like when I was in high school.

so all around totally worth it. But it is on both Rumble and YouTube on YouTube it's just on the other channel, but if you're watching on Rumble it's on the normal Rumble Channel and that's just because how YouTube's algorithm works. But anyway, check all of that out. So now I got some of the housekeeping out of the way.

sign up for Goonies Watch that video and also just do something nice for someone today. Why not? Why not just do like a little something. Maybe that's going to be the other piece of housekeeping today. Do do something nice for someone.

So anyway, let's talk about the overall. Market I Kind of want to do a little bit more of an extensive chart breakdown, so let's quickly rip through this news. Stock futures are little changed. After down Notch is 11 day rally.

it's only a matter of time before the Dow gets brutally hit if you ask me. Hong Kong Socks gained four percent as China vows support for ailing property market. so we're even yesterday or really. in the overnight session we saw Hong Kong Socks a nice pop there, which probably helped a little bit with our pre-market stuff for sure.

The bear Market has nearly been a race fewer than 20 months after it began I Don't really agree with that at all. actually. I Think this is a little bit of a misleading headline. so if you look at the overall Market Yeah, the spies have come back.

The spies come back. the queues come back. We've seen a huge prop without a doubt. but remember, the reason this is up is basically because of Seven individual stocks.

So for seven individual stocks that are greatly outperforming, yeah, it makes it look like the whole Market's recovered. but if you were to take those markets out, those individual equities out, the market would only up be up four or five percent. Not this crazy. I don't even know what we're at on the year right now.

Year to date, we're currently up 18.. So a Lion's Share of this move is because of a small group of stocks. So when we say that the whole bear Market is a race, well, if you're looking at the overall indices, it looks like it is, but it's not on a steady grounding or steady Foundation as maybe you would want it to be if you're just an absolute permeable. So just want to share that with all of you who wants to keep hiking rates and who doesn't breaking down the Fed's views.

So this is really going to come into play tomorrow at 2 p.m we're going to get the decision from the Fed and basically we kind of know that it's there's we know what's going down. they're gonna hike it. There's a 99 chance that we're going to get a 25 bips, right? Like, and actually a 1.1 percent chance that they're going up two, uh, I guess two notches. which is 50 bips.

Uh, so this this is what's going to be at: 2PM Don't be surprised, but this is what's going down tomorrow: 2 P.m Eastern Fomc decision: The meeting technically starts today, concludes tomorrow. They tell us the results at 2 pm and then Jerome Powell speaks at 2 30. obviously I'll be streaming the whole thing, but we're going to be going from five percent for the federal fund, right up to 5.25 So the better question of what's going to be moving the market or not isn't necessarily going to be the rate hike because we know it's coming. And granted, there's a one percent chance that we have an absurd surprise.

but I don't think that's going to be happening. That's not my base case. In fact, I'm fully expecting it to be the 25 bips, not the 50 bips. The thing that's really going to send the market either to a new high like a new high based on what we ever saw last week, or making last week.

the actual peak in this journey is basically what Jerome Powell says if Jerome Powell comes in and keep saying that nope, Like this is serious, we're not backing down. Don't call my bluff. that type of a Vibe I think the peaks in for at least the recent run, but if he's a little bit more dovish, if he's like, no things are actually trending really well, we're comfortable and we think we're just gonna Coast here for a bit in maybe a year, year and a half down the line. that's more cut rates.

the market might be like dude, we beat inflation. It's all gonna boil down to the Market's perception of have we successfully tackled inflation or not and remember I don't mean in the real time, it's always a forward-looking organism really the market. So it's going to be like this concept of does he or does he not Telegraph that we can pull off this really soft Landing that we're hearing so much about. So this is a major thing to pay attention to tomorrow.

Yeah, we might get a little bit of an idea of what's going on with Consumer Sentiment report uh, that comes out today. But then don't forget, we get another inflation report this: Friday which is the Pce report, which if you listen to the FED they actually like more um, than some of these other inflation measures just because it's a little bit more broad, it's a little bit more timely. Um, and really, what I'm talking about is the CPI report. So anyway, this all goes down tomorrow.

Uh, the meeting technically starts today, goes down tomorrow Waller One of the most I Guess Hawkish Master Daily should be all the way down here. Goolsby I Guess is one of the biggest does I Didn't know that Dailies a Dove boss, Six a dove Williams He's very influential. like just Pals with Jerome Uh, so they're a little bit I guess more in the middle. but so Mester and Waller are the known Hawks that's interesting uh and in it, they even give it an influence score.

This is how influential John Williams is. So both of these guys, uh pal, obviously the most influential dude Susan Collins they're just like dude, we don't Suez them they did Susan and Lisa dirty. they're just saying hey, by the way, you are not influential look at that Susan Collins Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman they're like dude, you tried like good good effort kid. uh but man, they're that's a little embarrassing.

that's a that's a little embarrassing. So anyway, we have a little bit more of an influential Hawk at the top Waller but it's going to come down to Williams and Powell most likely uh Goolsby I really didn't know he was that dovish. That's interesting I guess I should do a little bit more look into them. but anyway, that's setting kind of the tone for the remainder of this week macroeconomic reports.

but on top of it, don't forget about all of our earnings so this we could actually go through it. but Verizon Gm3mge Spotify uh Raytheon There are some notable movers off of this such as: Raytheon getting Merc such as: Spotify getting Merc Spotify is down six percent Raytheon is down nine percent. Some of these other ones though are doing well. Mmm let's look at 3M Currently up this is a chemical manufacturer so that one's doing decently well.

you could look at GE that is up four percent GM uh was up, then got hit a little bit and Spotify we talked about that. um really the party as you can see gets going today. Microsoft Google Snapchat Visa that after the market closes today. So if you guys want maybe even in the Power Hour stream, we could do a bit of a breakdown of how the charts at least setting up with it for me, particularly when it comes into earnings.

It's rare in my mind to ever get like that far away from a 50 accuracy kind of just. and not only are you predicting if they beat or miss on earnings, but then from there you're predicting. if the market reacts the way you think you're they're gonna react to that beat and or that Miss so it gets a little bit more complicated. I mean sometimes I love it.

For example, the last time I played Nvidia I crushed it. Then right after that I played Tesla and Netflix and they crush me. so I kind of have a love re like a love hate relationship when I'm playing earnings. but anyway I just want to know massive earnings coming out today and then also tomorrow.

Not only do we have the Fomc stuff, but we hear from Boeing, Coca-Cola and Meta and then obviously feel free to screenshot this if you want to know what's going down for the remainder of the week or just check out at ewhispers on Twitter. So earnings definitely we're in the middle of it. There are some other updates from companies outside of earnings such as Tesla or excuse Me Elon Musk with Tesla sorry I was thinking about Tesla how I got crushed by them uh, his other tea or it used to be starting with the T Now it starts with the next I'm talking about Twitter Musk risks even more damage to Twitter's business as the messaging app changes name to X so I don't know why I call it Twitter It will still technically Twitter.com but now it's an X and I guess even if you go to X.com it's going to redirect to this website. What's going on here if you didn't catch this news is really nothing to do with the fact that he just wanted to name it something else.

It seems like he is moving on to this vision of creating an overall like One-Stop Shop app called X and he wants Twitter to be the social media aspect of it but it really seems like he's trying to I don't know. It seems as if he had ideas of really where he wanted to take PayPal to make it an even bigger Financial player and a player within the financial industry and I think he's trying to now really turn X into it and I don't just think it like he's like blatantly said, that's what he's attempting to do. So I just wanted everyone to know that this isn't just a Twitter like oh I don't like that name. Maybe he didn't like that name I Have no idea but it seems like he is making moves to make this overall application or ecosystem called X Love the channel, especially the humor Jones that's so nice of you I Hope you have an amazing day! Jones If we ever reinstated gold stars on this channel, you would be getting a gold star right now just out of how out of how incredibly nice that was.

But alas, gold stars are not reinstated so we're all gonna have to live with that. Twitter was acquired by Xcorp both to ensure freedom of speech and accelerant for X in everything app. This is not simply a company renaming itself, but doing the same thing. The Twitter name made sense when it was just 140 character messages going back and forth like birds tweeting.

But now you can post almost anything, including several hours of video in the months to come. We will add comprehensive Communications and the ability to conduct your entire Financial world. The Twitter name does not make sense in that context so we must bid a do to the bird so that's what's going down. Interesting aspect of I Try to upload the video from yesterday the top 10 Trading Patterns video and it was over a gig and Twitter did not allow me to do it so.

but now you can put almost anything including several hours of video. Um, I wasn't able to post several hours of video I tried to post a seven minute video and I don't know if it's something that I did wrong in my Um settings or this that the other thing. uh I don't know I don't know at all but I couldn't do that I couldn't post a seven and a half minute video. so I don't know.

That's just what I'm seeing. They aren't the only company shaking things up though. Tick Tock takes on Spotify Apple Music as it expands into music streaming. Tick Tock launches music streaming service this month in Indonesia and Brazil it's second and third largest markets.

It's also testing Tick Tock Music and I'll show you Mexico and Singapore There's already this large and solid base of users which Tick Tock can convert into paying Tick Tock Music subscribers with a relatively low customer acquisition cost I actually think I didn't know they were doing this so this morning I think this is going to be big for tick tock I think Spotify specifically is gonna have some problems with it just because of the I guess almost demographic breakdown of who uses Tick Tock who uses Spotify and with Tick Tock being so massively prevalent with I guess just the age demographics below millennial. and if they can come up with a successful way to keep everyone on their app where they don't have to go to Spotify when they don't have to go to Apple music when they don't have to go to YouTube music. that could be interesting now. obviously.

will it ever get traction? I Don't know. but it does seem like a very interesting business move. or at least a business move with quite a bit of potential. so something to watch.

Honestly, I think the biggest thorn in Tick Tock side is the current battle with the US government, so I would totally understand. Maybe just maybe if Tick Tock survival within the US depends on that part of the business being siled off and running independently. Uh, just obviously our Regulators are a little bit antsy of all of our data going back to China and I Get it? They say it doesn't happen, but obviously we all know it does happen. Um, it's a different question if you care or don't care about that.

but I'm just saying in terms of what's going on in our political landscape. I I Honestly think that's Tick Tock's biggest Thorn because right now it's massively popular. The minute spent on the platform per day, the popularity, the growth. it's just crazy.

So with that, something interesting to pay attention to obviously Spotify right now now getting hit after earnings I mean it is currently down 6.6 percent. Now if we take a look at the daily chart, it was running up nicely, but it got cracked over the past three days and now it's capping down even more so. It had a nice run, but it does seem like this was an evident Turning Point Recently on Wednesday July 19th. Uh, this already started to dip when yesterday it was announced that Spotify is raising the prices on their like just monthly fee and then going into earnings people just not happy whatsoever so just want to bring that up.

Thought it was interesting Adidas up six percent after trimming 2023 loss forecast on strong Yeezy inventory sales so this doesn't really have much to do with it's not like their earnings got announced today, but it D this took a massive hit to its like financial situation because of the whole blow up with Kanye or Yay or whatever his name is officially right now. uh Adidas said Monday Initial sales of Yeezysock following the termination of its partnership with rapper Yay have led to cut its 2023 forecast 200 450 million from 700 million. The Germans where Giant ended its collaboration with Yay in October of 22 after he made a series of remarks that were wildly condemned as anti-semitic Not a good thing to be condemned as in May The company said it would sell the remaining stock and donate some of the profits to Charities so it was able to offload quite a bit. So things were looking up for Adidas to get out of this particular financial burden.

That's what I have for you in terms of just individual company updates right now. Obviously we'll do some technical reviews, but in terms of this consumer confidence coming out at 10 am I that I think I kept saying consumer sentiment um and that is one too. but I keep messing up the two. So anyway, 30 minutes into the training day.

So on today on days like this when we're getting an important report usually I try to hold off till like trading until 9 45 9 50. Today I'm going to be waiting until after 10 a.m because I want to see how the market reacts to this. Right now the Line in the Sand is 112. once again we will be getting this at 10 A.M today obviously tomorrow new home sales phone see decision pal.

Speaking on Thursday we're getting the GDP report and on Friday we're getting the Pce report. So a lot going down with respect to today. Tuesday July 25th It's bearish neutral. Um, over the past 25 years the Bulls have won.

This day 48 of the time the profit factor is below one, but as you can see from the equity curve, it kind of sold off about 20 years ago on this individual day and then from there we've just been going sideways. So in terms of seasonality, we're not really running into headwinds. we're not being supported by Tailwinds. So I would argue for today individually if you are a day trader.

if you are a swing. Trader You could just not really consider seasonality today. It's not hurting you, it's not helping you. It's a little bit neutral.

Five things to know before that stock market Bell goes ding a ding ding ding today Tuesday July 25th 11th Heaven Dude. I Can only imagine the author of this particular section or this article just like praying it can go to 11 just so they could have titled this which I thought was kind of funny. but anyway, the Dow's ripping non-stop You could look at the Dow index which is 30 of the biggest, most influential companies and it's just been non-stop GM raises Outlook Cuts more costs now. GM's had an interesting reaction.

At first the Market's reaction was a positive one, but GM's actually now in the red territory down 2.4 percent Worthwhile to pay attention to China's new normal. Um, this is about the commentary of its overall economy. GDP And there are definitely warning signs. Flashes of warning signs that maybe everything's not so.

uh, hunky-dory This came out yesterday and I thought it was kind of interesting. Uh, IRS is going to cut a high majority of their prize visits and I think I more so. found it interesting because I didn't know that the IRS did surprise visits. agents with the IRS will no longer make surprise visits to households and businesses in attempts to recoup last talks lost tax revenue the decades-long practice which enabled offers to show up at a residence and places of business with a meeting tax out of 110 000 came under fired in recent years with IRS agents encountering increasing amounts of threats and hostility.

We have the tools we need to successfully collect Revenue without adding stress to with unannounced business I didn't know they did that and it does seem like a good way to get an uh, potential physical harms way back at the table. This has to do with UPS So there's various union strikes going on right now. You have writers in Hollywood actors in Hollywood and you actually have this giant one with Ups and another one to kind of watch is what's going on with Airlines some of it getting resolved, some of it not getting resolved ups and the Teamsters Union which represents 340 000 employees at the delivery Giant kicked off last ditch talks Tuesday to prevent a strike next week the union is seeking higher wages for its members. After securing agreements on air conditioning and delivery trucks and other matters, the Union's contract expires at the end of the day July 31st and strike would start the next day.

If there's no deal, the stakes are high. Even a brief strike could cost the economy billions of dollars. So if they end up striking, not so. Bueno Definitely be paying attention to this UPS strike.

Now on that news. Uh, the spy and the queues were looking good around 5 a.m and then again at 8 A.M And now we're starting to dip. In fact, the Spy is slightly red from the close, just down by 25 cents and the queues are slightly up by 68 cents. So a little bit.

I Don't know of a mismatch opening. nothing too special, if you ask me in terms of price action in the shorter time frame, I Would actually argue that it's a little bearish because of the sell-off and the fact we've just had two inside days. It's more neutral than anything else. Uh, I would actually best describe the overall index.

The SPX or if you're looking at the cues or the Russell I mean the cues are a little bit more bearish, but we're kind of pushing the high from yesterday. What was a high 377.58 We're at 376.91 so we're actually under that. So yes, we have lower highs, lower lows. so I would argue that the tech sector is a bit more weak, the Spy is a bit more, um, just neutral if you look at the small cap sector a bit more weak, lower highs, lower lows, and then if you look at, uh, hang on.

let me bring up the Dow Uh, where is that index no DJ what is it Dow 30 this is how often I actually the Dao DJI if you want to look up the Dow Jones Industrial Average I mean just ripping higher highs, higher lows so Dow strong Spy neutral Tech week and Russ uh and the Russell 2000 week small cap week. So like I said, I would describe this at mainly as a mixed bag inside, day inside, day. we're still within the range of Thursday So this is my major watch really. Um, for the overall market and you could track it with whatever SPX spy you could track it with Vu You could track it with es on the Futures Market Are we going to get above and hold above 4565? Or are we going to get below and hold below Four thousand, Five Hundred and Twenty seven.

Now, obviously the momentum's been to the upside. Maybe I'm wrong on this. Maybe I'm right on this. I Think things are greatly overextended and we're due for a pullback, but that doesn't mean we're immediately due for a pullback.

I'm very antsy for the moment that we do have a considerable pullback because that's going to be a massive money making opportunity. So so maybe I'm a little bit early on this. or who knows. maybe it comes today.

Maybe it comes tomorrow. It also could get kicked down weeks or months. You don't know when things are trending this strongly. It's really tough to like pick the pivot point.

I Was looking a little bit into the commitment of Traders reports just to see how large speculators and basically commercials large institutions are positioning themselves. There's not really too much to glean from it. We're not really at maximum highs or lows or anything like that, so it feels as if everyone's kind of like awkwardly sitting back and like looking around and trying to see who's gonna blink. First, the highs that we saw last week, particularly on Wednesday July 19th Was this the high of this run? Everyone's kind of awkwardly saying, uh, is it or are we going to do one of these things where yeah, it comes down a bit and then we actually go an entire leg up.

That's what's been going on and on and on and on ever since October and really started to get going in March And obviously this time this, like thus far, it has not faltered. Obviously my base case is eventually we're going to take a turn. What's tough about this is we just don't know when that turn is. Gonna Come So it's It's very much all about risk reward.

If you're trying to fade the move, you have to be very, very careful with your risk. Profit Just said AMC's down nine percent. Yeah, it is, but still up from Friday's announcement. Um, I'm more so care if it reverts down to 450.

Not too much off of yesterday's close. but I don't have the most faith in it right now just because I think think Adam Aaron is just a complete scumbag douchebag if you support him I Honestly think you need to get your head examined because he's done nothing to show that he supports you. but whatever. Maybe you're just eternally optimistic and we'll just see how it goes.

Um, anyway. Microsoft reporting after the market closes today and Snapchat reporting after the market closes today, so it could be fun to watch them throughout the day. I don't really have any particular thoughts or opinions I'm not going to play them directly. Obviously I mean I am invested in Microsoft in the long term, so I don't want it to get horribly hit.

but for my NASDAQ position which expires this Friday I'd prefer that Microsoft misses and comes down for sure I'm also currently directly betting against Meta, but my reasoning for that is more of just a technical or a price action development. A technical development, lower highs, lower lows broken important trend line might be a little bit indicative of maybe someone knows something. We don't as we come into Meta's earnings once again after the market closes this. Thursday So for me, the name of the game today is I'm neutral leaning, a bit bearish.

but I'm waiting for that 10 a.m report. That's how I'm starting obviously based on price action that can flip at a moment's notice. but that's how I'm starting today. And on that note, I Would love to ask you guys, where are you at on the day? Are you? Are you feeling bullish? Are you feeling bearish? Are you saying nope? This is not the right environment to trade, so you're completely avoiding it.

Where's everyone at on the day Are you voting up? Are you voting down? Are you saying? you know what? I'm just here for the jokes. I'm just here for the jokes. Where is everyone at? And on that note, as your votes are coming in, ding ding ding ding the casino is open. Best of luck to all.

Play responsibly if not have fun. Um I'm coming to this day neutral leaning, bearish seeing how things shake out mixed bag of earnings of the ones that we got this morning. but some of the big head honchos are going to be reporting after the market closes today. Google Microsoft Um, not that Snapchat's a big head honcho but definitely reporting.

uh down. bearish but patient. Green? uh mmm bullish based on the chart and earnings. Uh beat in general.

Here for the jokes: 3M did do well if you guys don't know about 3M it's a big chemical manufacturer. Um You probably end up using a lot of their products without even knowing that it's a 3M product. Uh, but they did well with earnings? uh ge. GM Kind of having an interesting reaction in terms of price DraftKings Oh I had an alert on DraftKings the DraftKings breaking out or breaking down is DraftKings breaking out or breaking down.

breaking out. breaking out might be an opportunity on DraftKings calling this out. Now if you were to take this or if I were to take this which I have no position in I'd be risking about a dollar fifty lower at 30. whatever.

25 would be my risk on this breakout. and actually you would know exactly this rectangle pattern if you watched that video that just posted by nightbot the top 10 trading patterns. This is a bullish rectangle I Forget the accuracy right off the top of my head I Want to say 75 or 78? Um, and what you could do if you're doing a measured move on DraftKings would basically just be Oops I did it the wrong way. Hang on.

Hang on. hold your horses. hold your horses. The DraftKings measure move would bring you up to about 33.

that would be the measure move Target but if you want to turn it into Trend following I would just if if that it I would end up just moving my wrist to today's low is how I would end up playing that once again. I'm not playing it directly mainly I might play it later on today, but I'm trying to hold myself accountable and wait like I said those first 30 minutes to the day for the consumer Confidence report that is coming out at 10 A.M 10 A.m 10 A.m 10 A.m So waiting for that meta is at 296 up 1.5 percent Netflix is at 428 neutral on the day Nvidia is up 1.6 at 453. Tesla is actually up to 271. up almost a full percent Microsoft up slightly up a dollar up 0.3 percent at 346.

Apple up 28 cents. so just above neutral. The queues are up a dollar 26 right now up 0.3 percent battling it out with yesterday's high. The queues are battling out with yesterday's high, so we'll see how this all goes if this holds.

If we, if the cues break and hold yesterday's high I Kind of have no option but to cut my cue puts just because. This could lead to a larger push to the upside, especially if we have something like Microsoft and Google both beating on earnings. So I might have to throw in the towel on that particular play. But we'll see.

We'll see. We'll see, We'll see. your metaputs must be killing you. No, what do you mean they're down 17 percent Killing me? No.

I mean we I got in at a pretty good price and they're slightly down right now, but I'm not really that worried about it at all. In fact, someone just said wow, AMD what's going on with AMD AMD solid push. Amd's up. uh, 1.3 percent Metas up to Netflix's Break Even uh in videos one up 1.9 Tesla's up 0.9 Microsoft flat Apple flat.

Well, Microsoft and Apple are just above flat, slightly green On the day, the queues are just battling out. They decide if they're gonna like, actually want to push or if this is a liquidity grab that just ends up getting absolutely smashed. Obviously time will tell. Uh I know it's tough sometimes I Know it's very tough sometimes, but I'm always fully of the opinion that the opening Market volatility.

the churn is just not something that's worthwhile to be traded. This action right here. Like when you see the first couple minutes going green or red, it's not really indicative of what's about to play out for the rest of the day. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't and if you want to know the accuracy of its prediction, it's about 50 50.

So to me, like, it's going to be really tough for you to be profitable over a series of Trades if you're just always chasing the opening push to the upside or the opening push to the downside. Obviously, if you have some sort of tested methodology where you're like no, I look for XYZ whether you're playing Gap UPS Gap Downs like whatever like that. Well, okay, yeah, and more than willing be more than willing to listen to that conversation. I'm just saying to arbitrarily trace the green pop.

Uh, to arbitrarily short a red like Drop at open I Think it's very, very, very silly. especially when we're coming into an announcement which we have to wait about 25 more minutes for. uh cues Tech shown a little bit of strength today. Here's what it looks on the daily chart man.

DraftKings DraftKings Having a good freaking day? Why is my chart back to being so so? Potentially a bottom setup? Potentially a bottom setup. So uh, definitely paying close attention because if this ends up holding at 377, whatever. 60 if the queues end up holding this push, yeah. I'm gonna cut my position just because it didn't Trend my way.

as much as I wanted it to, someone's saying AMC LOL Down seven. Wait, what's funny about it? What am I missing? Um, it doesn't really seem to be doing anything ape not really doing anything. Gme selling off. It's only down one percent though, but definitely getting a little bit hit.

Uh, the energy sector holding, uh, slightly down on the day. oil at 78.60 a barrel. the financial sector kind of flat. the utility sector sold turning back around and then the healthcare sector is popping up UNH up about a dollar 76 on the day.

This is one of the major health care plays Meta Meta Taking a little bit of a hit. Uh, up 1.3 on the day though at a Tesla Tesla Had a really good day yesterday, but selling thus far this morning selling off a bit this morning. How's Apple looking Apple making a bit of recovery Microsoft Actually looking a little bit weak Google popped Kind of coming down a little bit right now. the dollar.

Definitely taking a hit. actually. let's go on a larger time frame. The dial.

Okay, the Dollar's actually been popping but seemingly taking a bit of a breather right now. Um, be careful with this, both the spy and the cues. This could be exactly what we've been seeing recently. Just these brutal liquidity traps where they make you think it's breaking out and then the breakout ends up getting faded and hard.

So if you see the Spy come back below 450 425. If you see this by the cues, come back below 377.50 It's just a trap. We've seen these like time and time. We've seen multiple a day across major indexes.

ETS Some of our favorite equities: Brutal Brutal traps. They make you think it's a breakout, they make you think it's a breakdown, and they basically trap people who are chasing and then those Chasers get absolutely destroyed. This is why you sh I am of the opinion: I Am deeply, deeply, deeply of the opinion you should not be buying breakouts. You should not be shorting breakdowns.

Chasing is just going to get you absolutely screwed. even if you like the Spy even if you're bullish on the Spy right now, even if you're bullish on the cues, there is still no entry today because even if it pushes you want to get a cheaper price, you want the pullback and then like, kind of almost like that Spike Up then it makes a u and starts to fight again. But this we, we've just seen it time and time again. If you were chasing this morning, I mean I Don't know how many times you need to get burned by a hot oven till you realize like it's just not worth it now.

I'm not guaranteeing that this happens every time because sometimes things break out and it's a legitimate breakout and it keeps going, but still, the odds of the situation. it's just simply not worth it to be chasing if you're buying a breakout. If you were shorting a breakdown, you are very much asking for trouble for serious, serious serious trouble because even though you want a bottom tick when you go long or you want to like top take when you're going short, if you're buying a breakout, you're risking top taking going long at the top of the day. So literally you might be trading at the worst, absolute worst value of the day.

And once again, that's not guaranteed. But I think the mindset of that of buying that type of a breakout. We've seen these fake outs just like way too many times. Way too many times.

Um. DeSantis Involved in a car accident but not injured? Uh. shout out Prophet for giving us that information. Isn't chasing The definition of a day trader? No, not at all.

The definition of a day trader is a person who gets in and out of positions within a day has nothing to do with their trading style, has time has all to do with the duration of their trade. They basically trade between roughly 9, 30, and four. They're in and out within a day. Nothing with chasing, they might be chasing.

They also might be fading. They also might be selling pre. I don't know. It's just day trader is literally that.

It means they do their trades within the day. In and out. Um, nothing. With like this style of how they're doing their trading.

It's all of a duration thing. What is the difference between chasing and going with the trend? So going with the trend? well I guess it depends on how specific you want to be and I'm sure everyone would have like a slightly different answer to it the way I would. Define It is okay. Let's say something's trending upward and then you're looking at a breakout and you're saying should I buy this and you're saying I'm going with the trend.

Inherently, if you're buying a breakout and something's trending upward, you are going with the trend. But that doesn't mean it's an optimal risk to reward move. Um, obviously if you if something's trending up and in the short time frame, there's a breakdown and you're shorting it. you're going against the trend.

but if something's up and you're buying a breakout, you are trading with the trend. That's technically right, but that doesn't make it a good trade. I Still think the best thing to do is to on a larger time frame and this is like respective to like whatever time frame you trade on I Don't know if you're trading the one minute, the daily, the weekly, the monthly, whatever it is, identify the larger time frame Trend and then wait for the opposite to happen in the shorter time frame. So let's say you're a swing Trader that holds for a couple days and you identify on the daily chart that we're going up and you want to also go along well.

What you do is wait for a pullback on whatever, the five minute or the 15 minute pull back, get yourself a cheaper price and you also are lessening your risk and then you're looking for the turnaround so you want the overall trend you want to be trading with. that I would argue if you're a trend following Trader and what you want is in a smaller time frame in a shorter time frame to look for the opposite app and a little bit of a reversion and that's how you start to increase your risk to reward ratio. you take on more reward with less risk. hey man! I'm trying to learn about charting and analyzing.

Can You give me your thoughts on NMM and see if I am missing something? Well, how would I know what you're missing if I don't know what your Takeaway on 3M is I'm debating starting a wheel strategy with a small account around 3K Do you have any thoughts on a wheel strategy you would like to look at with an account of that size? Do you have any thoughts on the wheel strategy and what would you look at the wheel strategy I would say is a great way to learn about options I'm a fan of the wheel strategy. Um I Think that's a nice consistent thing that you could like I like it because it starts to teach you more about the nitty-gritty and the math of options. So that's why inherently I'm a fan of it because it forces you to learn about the world of options more than just yoloing like zero Dtes. So I like that.

My answer to your second question there. what would I look at I would look at stocks. So with that account size. obviously if you're talking about 3K like you need to be able to buy that many shares.

Um so and remember that options premium like it's going to be every contract is it represents 100 shares. So you would need to be looking at stocks that are like appropriately priced as in probably under thirty dollars. Um if that's your full account which maybe you shouldn't be yellowing your full account. but that's a different thing.

But basically 30 is going to be your Max And obviously you also want to be looking at stocks that you would like to actually own. Um, so you're basically looking at 30 stocks as a Max price per share? That would be definitely a ceiling for you. And then from there you're looking for ones that you're like no I actually like, wouldn't mind owning this right now I would be a little bit hesitant about tech just because the Nasdaq's already runs. so so so much so I'd be looking maybe either in the energy or the financial sector right now.

That's like if at this moment in time if I were about to do that, that's how I would consider it. But also, if you want more information on like, just like the exact like Nuance details of wheel strategy, there's already a lot of great free content on YouTube so definitely just take some time. check it out, they're all over the place. Uh, Paul I've been doing this Museum in Simon account side has been great way to learn.

although the price may be a bit high right now. Yeah, so with with 3K you inherently have to look at something that is, you have to be prepped to buy the 100 shares per contract. What can we do about getting stuck in a trade due to PDT Um, don't trade unless you know you have at least one day trade. that's going to be a discipline thing if you're getting stuck in pattern day trades and you're like oh wow I wish I could get out I Wish I like could do something right now um I agree that it's a stupid rule I'm in no way defending pattern day trading I Think it's like incredibly stupid I hate it I hate it I hate it I wish it weren't a thing I Think it's a dumb rule I Don't know how to be more explicit about it, but regardless, it is something that we have to deal with.

and if you're getting stuck in it, it means you're trading when you shouldn't be. Trading Um, you basically always have to save one of your day trades just in case you have to get out that day. So how can you battle it? You just need to be more disciplined and trade when you know you at least have one full trip just in case you have to pull the rip court that day. Foreign discipline as opposed to self-discipline In a way, it's forced discipline, but it's kind of worse than that because some brokerages let you into the position and then they're like oh no, no, we won't let you out and you're like, well I need to get out.

My risk is hit and they're like yeah, but you don't have any more day trades I Know, some brokerages actually don't even let you do it. uh like I Believe Interactive is even like more protective. like they won't even let you create it if you don't have a day trade because they know you won't like get out even if you want to get out. Um, it's a dumb Rule and just so you know it's I'm pretty sure only in the U.S I Don't believe pattern day trading exists in other countries like I'm not a fan of the rule I don't support the rule I think it's really dumb I Think it can create pretty bad habits.

um in a lot of Traders not every Trader but I think it can definitely create some pretty poor habits. Not a fan of it. It is something you have to consider. Um, there are some workarounds for example: uh I Remember at one point in my career when I was paddling battling with pattern day trading I I fixed it by only swing trading.

uh I was trying to come up with some methodology of I would only get into trades at in like in Power Hour with the intention of swinging it overnight so I wasn't training on the same calendar day. Another workaround is there's no pattern day trading in the Futures Market Pattern day trading only exists in like stocks, equities, and also um, options. but it doesn't exist in crypto and it doesn't exist in Futures. So you you I and it doesn't exist in Forex So you could just trade an asset class that you don't have to battle with it like there's a couple things to consider but um like overall like if you're like no I want to trade options and I have to battle with pattern day trading, you either have to become a swing Trader or you just cannot trade if you don't have any more day trades.

um and trust me I'm not talking about this as a person. I'm like like I've battled with that and I get frustrated. There's been situations where like I know I don't have any I think the situation looks perfect. so I get in and then like as luck would have it, I end up just getting crushed and I wish I could get out and then I haven't gone out I I cannot count how many times that has happened to me.

I Absolutely destroyed multiple times. It sucks. it absolutely sucks. Um I try to cash account single day sentiments So cash if you're trading Cash accounts it like there's margin accounts.

There's cash accounts. There's pros and cons to both. I think margin accounts are better because with cash accounts um I guess I think margin accounts are better for my trading style because I typically trade with a higher percentage of my account I'm not saying that's good or bad I'm just saying that's how I trade. So cash accounts are fine if you are like trading in smaller piecewise segments.

Um, because it's one day settlement. uh and then you can trade multiple times say your account's 10K if you're trading them 1K increments then you're fine. Um, but I don't do that. And there's a couple other reasons that relate to, um, just like your leverage that I like margin a bit better, but they're pros and cons.

I Wouldn't say one account is clearly better than the other accounts, but generally when your account gets above 25k, you're gonna switch to a margin account. There's not really anyone I know of that account is above 25 30k and they're still on a cash account just because they want to be able to trade more rapidly. So it's really a question of what's happening when you're sub 25k and like your trading. Style What happened to your AMC updates? uh I don't do them anymore I only cover it if there's important news and they're isn't important news today.

it's just like legal updates and I'm not a lawyer. The only update is that Adam Aaron but that's not an update because it's something we've known for many months now that he's a piece of. Matt if I take a month off of him trading should I be worried that I will lose my rhythm. Um, that's from person or person in all reality I Know some people who don't want to take it off because they feel like they're going to get rusty and that's fair and then I know people who like one or two months out of the year.

they always take those months off to just go on vacation, hang out with their family and friends, and just don't trade. Um, so I think that's more of a personal question. Maybe give it a try and see how it works for you. Uh, take like take two weeks off and just see like how you feel coming back.

Some people feel very, very refreshed and ready to go. I Just this is anecdotal, but in my group of Traders more people feel that way, more people feel it's a benefit to take a step back, breathe refresh. Um, but I do know of some people who just even if they're not Trading they still just want to check in on the markets every day. maybe like kind of like, almost fictitiously like go back and be like okay I would have traded this this way just to keep on it.

but I I think I know more people who they actually enjoy the break and it's beneficial to them. Uh, do you tell your family about trading? Yeah, uh, take a step back. AKA Rage Quit I'm I Want to rage quit unless the NASDAQ absolutely pukes out today. I Want to Rage quit, Cup and handle.

No this structure right here. No, this is not a cup and handle. If anything, this would be referred to as a bear. Channel Um, because you have parallel lines up higher highs, higher lows, parallel lines, you have a bare Channel like two perfect perpendicular lines and I know it's going up.

and I'm saying a bear Channel because they commonly break. To the downside: this isn't a cup and handle. A cup and handle has roughly the same two highs like it goes up to a high, makes a u and then gets rejected at that region once again. Yeah.

Raytheon not having the best earnings RTX is Raytheon getting Smackdown 15 Spotify getting smacked too uh Spotify making a bit of recovery but still down nine percent on the day rums hanging out at eight dollars. so I would actually be watching this without a doubt we have like two parallel lines on the cues. I mean you could this one kind of Drew itself but I mean it's a essentially a perfect Channel This is referred to as a bear Channel because it commonly breaks to the downside. The question here though, and the tough part of trading these is how long is it going to build out in that channel for? Is it gonna be whatever? 20 minutes, four hours? Um, that's the tough part.

Uh, so you just have to kind of be patient with it and very specific with your entry. but with it, nothing really matters for like to me today until we know the Market's reaction to the Consumer Confidence report which comes out in um, seven minutes, seven minutes at 10 A.M ET We're going to be getting obviously the Consumer Confident report I'm hoping that our boy Rick Santilly is reporting it because he always gives us Barn burners of a day. but we'll see how it goes. Tesla getting a little bit of a hit this morning going from 272 down to 269.

Microsoft got hit pop looking a little strong now Apple went sideways now popping Nvidia has been popping throughout the day Netflix sold off now returning Meta did pop, got hit, put in a lower high looking for the crack of 294.50 uh Amazon doing nothing. sold off, popped, sold off rum uh went from 808 to 8. coin popped came down giving giving a little bit of it back. Carvana looking a little weak ever since we started breaking below the previous day's lows trading at 46.

ROBLOX trying to make a little bit of a recovery back to above the 40s Bitcoin still trading below 30k at 29.2 K xrp at 70 cents and East at 1860. So that's our setup for the day. I Mean right now actually, how's the dollar Doing the dollar recovering a bit if the dollar starts to pop again here? I Guess you could see it a little bit better on the five minute chart if the dollar starts to pop again. Um, and I think it actually more so could be popping not because of dollar strength, but more so because of uh, pound slash Euro weakness.

But anyway, if the dollar Pops I don't like it, it's going to be tough to be. In a scenario where the Spy is going up, bonds are going up, the dollar is going up and obviously thus, Shield is also going down in that scenario I don't see that combination really lasting for too long. Uh, what did Adam Aaron do that? You're so upset, just curious. Been out for last year I mean you're just gonna have to look into it I'm not gonna spend the next 20 minutes talking about a guy that I don't really feel like talking about.

um, it's to look at how much stock he sold, look at his decisions like it's just he's wasting. He's sold a bunch of his own stock 42 million to be specific. Over the past 20 months, he hasn't bought any. Uh, he bought stupid gold mines.

Um, he's giving sweetheart deals for his private Equity buddies to make a ton of money such as Mudrick and um, what's that in Tara that other one, uh, he. what has he done? Name a positive thing he's done is a better question. he I don't think you could legitimately name one thing that he's done that's actually benefited the retail investor base. I Don't think you could come up with one thing even before the craziness of like just the eight movement in 2021 going into that I believe he came CEO in 2016.

all he's done is Saddle the company with massive debt. All he's done as soon as he became CEO look at AMC's debt. it exploded ever since he joined the scene and it never never got alleviated. He just I don't see what he's ever done good for the company.

He is just lucky he was in the right place at the right time. He was the CEO of a company that the retail investor base decided to support. Other than that, the guy's done absolutely nothing. He sure has helped help your channel.

How has he helped my channel? The movement helped my channel. but what does it have to do with Adam Aaron Ben Simmons He sure as hell helped your channel. Give him that. No.

why would I do it because he hasn't helped my channel. He's never been on my channel I Don't talk with him I Haven't talked with him. um, there's been. He's done nothing to directly support my Channel at all the movement has.

But once again, he didn't do anything for the movement. Retail did things for the movement. Ben I Tell me name one thing. you know how we did what he was on your channel.

By the way, how was when was he on my channel? Um, once again, my channel is only a thing because of the retail Community but Adam Aaron's not in the retail Community Those are two distinct things. He happens to be the CEO of a company that retails supports, but he's never been on my channel I've never interviewed him. Um, he has not directly helped it. I mean how um I there's you guys are just factually wrong I don't There's nothing to say besides what you perceive to be going on as the app.

like the opposite of reality. Um I'm here because of Mad Strats. Don't know what this dummy is referring to. All right.

Well, we are waiting for this 10 A.m report. This is where we're going to get started on the day. I Know you might be saying to yourself, but it looks like the Market's already been trading for 30 minutes and it has. but alas, I Don't really think any of the movement actually matters whatsoever.

I Think what matters is going to be starting momentarily. We have about 60 seconds. 60 Seconds zero DT puts incoming Lander We'll see, We'll see if your prediction is right. Uh, the Spy pushed to its high from yesterday and actually let me do do if this.

I don't know. trading view is being slow. it started to speed up. Uh, where's the level I really care about? Particularly care about 355 10 which is where we're at and the queues also above 377.60 Let's see if this holds or doesn't.

We ran right up to the high of this breakout bar on the Spy Very very interesting place for this to go. As we're coming into an announcement, this is the major bar I'm paying attention to. From Thursday July 20th we tap the high, then it got smacked and now everyone is just waiting for this Consumer confidence report. And by the way, the Line in the Sand is 112 coming out now and this is going to decide if we're gonna be pushed into a new high relative to that high from Wednesday of last week or if that high was the local Maxima Let's wait.

Let's wait. Let's wait. Let's wait. Let's wait.

Let's wait. Let's wait. Um, what are we doing? Come on. CNBC Get your profit.

Do you have it? Consumer confidence, Consumer confidence. Where's the number? Consumer confidence was 117. um, last time it was 110, the estimate was 112. Well, if consumers are confident.

Whoa now. rated R I Would interpret that to mean that the economy is still a little too hot. Good news: Tuesday Rick First day of a two-day Fed meeting Consumer confidence for the month of July expected up to be around 112. our last look by the way was the best.

Since Jan of 22 it is improving to 117 117. So in order to be a higher number than 117, I have to go all the way back to July of 21. let's call that two years. Solid number Present Situation: 160 in the rear view mirror 155.3 160 Have to go all the way back three years to March of 2020 to buy find a higher number And what lies ahead in the form of Expectations: 88.3 88.3 That's the best level since tomorrow.

These are really bus numbers. Now let's look at Richmond Fed for the month of July and realize that we've had six consecutive negative month over month numbers. Well, now we have seven Microsoft Expectations. Negative number that we've had in this series was -16 and that was in February of 23 of this year.

Now, if we look at the service side of the equation Richmond Fed business conditions, we're expecting a number around minus nine minus eight. and that follows a negative revision from minus 12 to -14 And by the way, minus 8 is the 17th consecutive negative month on the service side 17 Now, uh, in a row. why is that important? The server side's what's the Fed's watching most closely. So I don't really want Richmond Fed to have negative service side, but it certainly does go a long way if the rest of the country moved a bit more in that direction.

Sarah Back to you All right, thank you Kelly And good Tuesday Morning Everyone welcome. Good economic reports theoretically be bad for the stock market in just a moment. Kramer You're live for you As always from post nine of the New York Stock Exchange Carl has the morning off, take a look at stocks. S P holds its gain.

Although it's a good economic report suggests the economy is still too high. Does health care and discretionary? Those are the positives. The markets go down McDonald's Travelers Those are the drags Industrials and financials are lagging today. We've got a lot to talk about when it comes to earnings and you know David I Always like to pull out and gym the the macro energy and financial is getting hit What we're learning about the overall.

So the thing keeping the market up today truly is taxes. So we're going to talk to Raytheon is going to be a good environment from the CEO Greg Hayes on the call. Global Commercial air traffic remains on track with our projections for very robust summer travel season driven by incredibly strong consumer demand. This Dynamic is supporting strength in the aftermarket and growth across the globe.

with Revenue passenger kilometers now Trucking about 95 of 2019 levels to talk about there with Raytheon. But the only thing that would really confirm we're going to fall today is If crane at least on the consumer. Although we know the consumers prioritizing travel, we know that's where the auction is right. Well, we're going to talk to Mr Hayes about momentarily, of course is this issue with Pratt and Whitney That's going to result in taking a lot of energy for some period of time.

Uh, Jim Contrast that and back to Industrials with GE right? which of course still strong today. Wow. still up nice this morning and in part powered not just by Aviation but by wind, right? Uh, it looks like it's been expected onshore, not offshore. I'm sure it's more Europe But one thing is funny is that if you look at the GE Building what is it's really stare at steals? it shares at the Gillette side.

And the reason I'm still battling it out at 32. is that GE makes all its money on the maintenance and repair of engine 70 and it's going to be extraordinary. Why? Because and yet we've already had enough of that. and yet we've already had enough of that.

Ooh, the market internals are bearish. You could tell by the red line because red means bearish. So that's interesting if the Spy goes below 454.50 if it goes below and stays below it, I'll set up an alert. Um, the bear party might be on for today and then obviously I'm going to Mark out the intraday High which also this 455.

The very low 455s happens to be pretty important relative to just the high that we saw from yesterday and the high that we saw from uh, three trading days ago. But I do want to point out that the market internals are bearish and I also want to double check something else, folks. I Would be careful today. Uh, if you are a bull I recommend Extreme Caution Today, all of my market internal readings flipped bearish.

Even on the push this morning, they flip bearish. And if they might flip back bullish I'll let you know if they do it. But as as of 1005 in the morning after we got that consumer confidence report, it was bearish going into it and it's holding bearish. Obviously if the price action continues to push, that's a different story.

But I Just want you to know that this Baseline Market internals right now is looking a little bit trappy, so please, please, please exercise some caution. Yeah, it's changing from minute to minute. So basically, if the Spy snaps for 54.50 and holds below