I Was at the sangria store last night. you know me, hard days worth of work. it's Thursday but I was thinking it was Friday I I come in all hot and heavy I'm like whoa like I kick open the door. not really cuz it's the sliding the door and I'm like hey what up s Gria store Works person happy happy Friday and they're like Mr Kors um you've done this before but it's actually a Thursday but yeah we have.

You're sang Gria I'm like sick dude thanks and I'm walking out with my completely real girlfriend and I'm having a completely real conversation with my completely real girlfriend and she's like how' your day go and I'm like oh, the market wasn't the best people still think I have control over the market and they take out their anger and their losses particularly on me and she's like oh well maybe tomorrow will be better I was like maybe it will and I'm walking through the parking lot. this is how I walked just well. there was two of us cuz it was with my completely real girlfriend so it's kind of like oh brother, oh brother oh brother, good morning, good morning, good morning. Today is the final day of November but it ain't no normal final day of November It's the final day of November where we also get an inflation report and that's why we're starting early.

so in a mere 8 to n minutes we're going to be getting the Personal Consumption Expenditure Report which is a very popular important influential inflation report to find out how much the cost of living is really I don't know going up if you will. So obviously uh I want to do a a little bit of prep work for that? I'll give you some facts and figures of how this day has played out historically over the last 10 just to see if we could see a slight. Edge there is a slight Edge but nothing. Nothing too crazy to run home and tell Mom about if you will.

So I want to get into that? We have a couple earnings to go over a couple updates in terms of seasonality, but more so we have some super fun drama related to Mr Elon Musk the world's most wealthiest man uh, and basically talking at the New York Times book Summit and and telling a lot of the world to go f itself and he said that which is absolutely hilarious. We could talk a bit a bit about crypto which is still looking very very good. Crypto Bitcoin right now trading just below 38,000 eth just above 2K Salana just below $61 So we have some excitement going still in the world of crypto yesterday. In terms of the market, not the best, but really, ever since this late October until now, things have been looking really, really good.

So basically we're seeing if the trend is going to continue. On top of that, I have some other wild updates related to my life and Piper and how she sleeps all day when I'm awake and then she's up all night also keeping me awake. So I do this thing where like I'm awake and I'm respectful I'm a respectful roommate to her so I don't wake her up but she chooses to sleep during the day and then she's not a respectful roommate and she does this thing where she keeps me up when she's up. so I just don't sleep.

Uh so I don't know if there's any cat people out there that can figure out how to fix that one. That would be obviously greatly, greatly appreciate. Uh, before we get into all that, if you haven't already destroy the like button, Hit it. Click it like just smash your mouse button over and over.

Does help me out with the algorithm. And obviously if you're watching this and you enjoy talking about stocks Futures options, crypto, degeneracy, random things I find on the internet. Well good news for you is you found your home so don't forget to subscribe as well. You can subscribe on Rumble you could subscribe on YouTube You could subscribe on only.

fans really subscribe wherever you want and we we'll figure it out together. We're going to make it work. Um, outside, cats are the best! This cat is the opposite of that. She is a very pampered princess who I don't I don't even know if her paw is ever touched outside.

Um I don't know, she's she's definitely a spoiled little jungle cat for sure. Oh folks. Oh I guess I should put up a poll? Well I don't want to put up the poll yet? Let me get the poll ready obviously I Want to know uh, your thoughts on Market at open? but I First want you to know what the Pce report is because I feel like that's pretty pivotal information to how today is going to go. and then I'll also give you the information on how this day has played out historically as in the 10 most recent, uh, personal consumption expenditure report days, the 10 most recent Pce report days, and and then after we go over those two things, that's when, uh, I'll open up the poll on YouTube and then on Rumble Obviously you could just vote and I'll be reading it.

Uh, for those of you who are new I don't think we really get many new people. We've done a very, very good job about scaring off any new people in the world. Like basically, if you're in here, there's like, literally, statistically a 96 to 97% chance you've already been here before. So there there's no no people, you guys I Don't even think it's my fault I Honestly think it's your fault I Think you guys are just scaring off all the new people.

Um, maybe when the show really gets going today, we could take a moment to see if there's anyone who's new in here. And I would bet a lot of money that it'd be like less than two people like. it's just we have successfully insulated our craziness and it's now an impenetrable wall in and simultaneously, an impenetrable wall out. You guys are you guys are stuck.

You're just stuck here. Uh, you're stuck with me. I'm stuck with you and no one. No one's coming.

No no one's coming in. This this is C money says I'm new. Well, if you are, you're going to learn today. You're definitely going to learn today what this show is all about.

So should be some highflying volatility today. Uh, because of the inflation report. Hopefully I trade better than yesterday. Yesterday was my first losing day in two weeks.

Uh, we were we Perfect all last week. Perfect. up until yesterday and it was one of those things that I learned a very, very painful lesson. For those of you who don't know a lot of the times, you know when you're trading options mentally, you're like okay, I I have to have Market Clos and then you have one of those Market nerds walk in and they're like actually if you're trading SPY or QQQ or an index, it trads till 415 and that's what I thought I've had enough of those Market nerds tell me cuz like they just feel like they know like a little Nuance of the market they're like actually it's 415 Um well guess what I found out yesterday when you're trading something like SPX I'm not talking about spy I'm talking about SPX the European style cash settled instruments SPX Ndx rut uh viix uh XSP all those the European style.

so if you talk about spy or QQQ that's American Style contracts. but SPX all those Ndx like the actual index ones, those are referred to as European style and you're right to say that they trade till 4:15 But guess what, they trade till 4:15 on every day except for the day that they expire. So if you're trading whatever a 3dt DTE a 2 DTE a 1dt that's trading till 4:15 But if you're trading a zero DT it does in fact turn off at one. So now you're in this weird situation where the Nerds are nerding out the Nerds they're like trade to 45 and then you have a mega nerd come in and they're like e actually on a zero DT it trades till four.

That's what I found out yesterday and it cost me. cost me a bunch of money. Uh, cost me a bunch of money thinking I had till 4:15 because it does on every other expiration date besides Zer DT So that's I learned I Hope you guys learn from my mistake I I hope you learned it's nerds taking out nerds and I I don't know dude I I Just what the Market's stupid. It's all made up anyway.

it doesn't matter. Uh, spy bouncing back into this report. Q's bouncing back into this report Bitcoin looking good just below 38k eth 2K Tech did sell off yesterday, but it's holding now. It basically everyone is waiting for this report that's coming out licky splickety.

Uh. Dow Futures rise 200 points as Benchmark near 2023 high. This is what we're looking for. The Pce report: the Line in the Sand for core Pce is 3.5 month over month 0.2 Those are the lines in the sand.

Uh, so that's going to be coming out literally right about now. 1, 840,000 was on the higher side, coming out in 2, 3, 4 above 1.8 million. This most likely will be five in a row. And on the spending and income side, of course everybody's asking question you is a line in the sand that everyone's paying attention to.

You know, maybe it's dual with respect. Some of the positives: stay home, work, savings, go online 6 7,000 just in food. Well, somebody would say of course that's coming away from businesses that are losing that in the downtown and more urban areas. but maybe it's just different speeds.

The Lost side on one, is it refle consumption side on the other and now we're at 8:30 Eastern I'm going to check out the wires they spin by and the numbers are starting to populate. Let's look at personal income and spending Jobless claims Sitting the wires first. 218,000 on initial jobless claims. Spot on with what The analyst expected to18 1,927 th000 for continuing claims, we just popped over the 1.9 million I was referencing.

It hasn't happened since November of 2021 we 1,96 4,000 so that is something to pay attention to. Let's watch. Those yields personal income up 2/10 of a percent Exactly as expected if you look at the spending side. Also, up 2/10 exactly as expected.

Real personal spending accounting for inflation. Deuces are wild also up 2/10 of a percent, which is one1 better than we were looking for. Now all three are less than the rear view mirror revisions haven't hit the wires yet, and this one, uh, the middle one, particularly on the spending side that's coming off of Up7, so we want to pay attention to any revisions that might come down the pipe. Now let's get into the real important numbers: personal consumption expenditure The Deflator: month over month expected to be up 1110th is unchanged Goose EG following up 4/10 of percent moderation there.

Now we go from month over month to year over year expecting a number 3.1 comes in at 3%, comes in at 3% and this one we need to reference history. 3% is a new cycle. On this last time we were anywhere near that level would be March of 2021 when it was 2.7% Okay, now let's back off back to month over month. This time, the core Pce month over Monon deflator expected to be up 210.

Up exactly 210. now the biggie: Personal consumption expenditure Core deflator year-over-year 3.5 Expected 3.5 delivered in the rear Viw mirror. we had 3.7 which was the Uh lowest. going back Four different PC readings.

See that these numbers those are the four issues. Little surprised that haven moved a little bit. uh uh, more aggressive to the downside, especially on the continuing claims number. But here we hover.

uh, we have twoe not eels. Basically unchanged. all the other yields are higher. Curve is getting less inverted.

That is a positive in many ways. a more steeping Curve will be. uh, bringing back more normaly and it will lower things like hedging costs for Japan and what may be down the road and how that may affect currency and carry trades we see don't seem to be very nervous about the jumping claims hold on very sizable gains and extending them as we are discussing the numbers. Joe Back to you I mean that that 5.2% GDP just seems to get further and further in in the past.

Is there anything in these numbers that that that explain why that was such a such a hot number? Re no I don't I don't think really that that there is I I'm looking at the spending numbers here and and they have moderated but they're still not bad I think the real issue here continues to be Joe Let's say you know that look at government workers government workers if you look at all vacant real estate that they're not going to work and sitting in every day. Um, that that's a significantly larger amount of empty real estate than the private sector. but both of those stay-at homes really want to fight to remain at home. they don't want to come back to the office.

And I think embedded in that Dynamic are many consumer positives that have contributed to much more uh consumption. and I think the other side of the Ledger there is going to be what we see down the road a bit and when we get a double punch because people will be forced to go back to work and some of those costs while they're going to see much higher when you have to go back and spend higher money transporting and of course, uh, on the food and all the issues that you have to spend when you go back to work and leave home. All right, Great thanks Rick for more on the data. Let's bring in: Barat Rama Merty former Deputy director that's quite the name White House National Economic Council Douglas Holtz Aen He served as director of The Office of Management and Budget and is now the president of the American uh action uh forum and it's it's good to have you uh both on and and uh Baron uh let me ask you you at at this point can you I I was trying to to get to that uh lagging indicator if you would on the the revised uh GDP are we in a 5.2% economy right now? Did the FED view it that way? I'm bored.

We can go over better stuff. so as of right now the market kind of coming down a little bit I find it interesting so if you just joining in now. We just got the Pce report month over month came in at zero. The expectation was 0.1 Year-over-year it came in at 3.0 the expectation was 3.1 so the Pce reading came in a tenth of a percent lower.

As an inflation is cooling down more than expected. that's good. but when you look at the core month over month as expected and then also core you over year as expected. So um, you could either say it's neutral news or bullish news, you could say it's neutral news or dovish news.

Um, in my book, not really bearish in my book. not really hawkish. So so that's the report that just came out at 8:30 You could see there was a reaction to the upside. Then it's coming down a little bit.

I'm a little confused on how yields are reacting on how the dollar is reacting, but hey, we have a lot of time now. I'm going to put up a poll here in YouTube so feel free to vote. I'm asking you for how you think the Market's going to react at the first minute of the day from 9:30 to 9:31 Do you think the Market's going up? Do you think the Market's going down? Cash Your vote? Uh, we are going for the 14th proper trade in a row. Uh, you guys have been spot on the first 13 times, so why not see if I could use you guys to tell me what's going to happen on day number 14? So as you're voting uh on Rumble either come over to YouTube and vote or I'll ask you guys when we're a little bit close to the market open.

But I want to give you a little bit of a a quick data lesson on today. So these vertical lines on my chart are the 10 most recent Pce report. Today's uh, days not counting today I Looked at the last 10 and we're talking talking January 27th all the way up to September 29th and I looked at it and I thought, all right, you got to you got to impress your audience. You got to give them something that they can actually use to maybe be a profitable Trader today.

So I looked into it. In terms of the days, you could count them out yourself. Feel free to double check me. it was 50/50 Five of these days are red days from open and close.

Five of these days are green days from open to close. Not much of an edge there, but there was a slight Edge in terms of yesterday's close the previous day's close to the current day's open. So the day before the Pce report, look at that close and then compare it relative to the market open on the day of the Pce report. out of those 10, seven of them by definition were Gap UPS As in, we opened up the market higher than where we closed it.

In seven of those 10 occurrences, the odds are a little bit more I guess evident when you're playing the CPI days, but here, it's still slightly favoring the bulls. Not the craziest thing. if we look into the seasonality of today Thursday You're going to realize that it like, slightly favors the bear. So the fact that it's Pce day out of the most recent 10 I would say there's a slight bullish push.

Seasonality says there's a slight bearish push. To me, the Pce is more impactful than the seasonality. but I Just want to let you know that we're kind of starting off today with a very strong, like just neutral stance. Uh, I wouldn't say anything's like really like dominating at this moment in time.

Let me save that and then talk a little bit more right here. Another thing I want to point out is yesterday we opened up higher. We got the downside Gap fill after it tried to push high. So you could say this was almost like a failed breakout attempt.

and inherently a failed breakout is bearish. So people trying to point out, well, hang on, we've already ripped so much. maybe it's time for either a pullback or some sideways consolidation. As you can see in pre-market right now, that idea of a gap up once again.

we closed yesterday at 45461. 7 out of 10 times it does open up higher than where we closed, and right now we're opening up about $2 higher so that that particular I guess pattern seems to be playing itself out. What I'm really looking for to is: if there is bullishness, how does the market the Spy, the ETF trekking the S&P 500. How does it react to$ 45944? This is the high from Thursday July 27th.

If we can get above and close above that in my book, it's very bullish and it's suggesting a continuation on the recent momentum. However, this recent momentum is a lot of recent momentum and we would need good reason to keep going up like we've had a lot of good things happen. And the question is, do we have even better things that would realistically push it higher? So that's what I'll be paying attention to. Obviously, I mean the Bulls are in control.

It's hard to argue with that. Uh, but on the flip side, they've maybe been in so much control that maybe the engines are a bit too hot. Maybe they're running out of their steam. Maybe they're running out of HSPA.

So if anything, gun to my head right now. if I had a guess I would actually predict a slight pullback or more so consolidation just because of how much the push is after that. I Think we could have a continuation to the upside because we have the Santa Claus rally and all that good stuff. But right now I think the market would struggle to get above $459 and hold above it.

But does my prediction matter? No Because it's not going to impact how I'm trading. Everyone has a prediction 50% of the time. It's right 100% of the time. I Let all of my trading be decided by breakouts breakdowns the actual price action of the day so mentally I'd be more comfortable if okay, we come below 454, come below 453 come back in the cloud because it makes sense to me.

but in reality that's just my emotional state and am I comfortable with the trade and like what I'm going to trade trade off of is are we breaking out? Are we breaking down? Are we bouncing off of support? Are we getting rejected by resistance? I'm going to lit the price action I'm not going to fight whatever the trend is, whatever the market gods are telling me the trend is, that's what I'm going to trade with so just want to throw that out there to everyone of yeah I have my thoughts and opinions. but ask yourself this if 90 95 98% of traders who are trading by their gut fail what does that tell you about just as a populace, our ability to trade by our gut? Uh, interesting, interesting note. um I guess I'm I'm I'm letting you guys know. Maybe a little bit too much here, but let me find the super cool quote: I found a really cool quote I'm prepping for an interview and I wanted to share something with you.

Where was it? Where was it? Where was it? So I have the absolute pleasure like this folks. This is like kind of a star struck moment today later today I'm going to be interviewing the author that we all know Jack Schwager um Schagger Schagger I'm not 100% sure how to pronounce it because I was looking at videos and people pronounced it differently. Anyway, a lot of you have heard of Unknown Market Wizards The first one was written back in the late 80s. Since then, he's written like I believe four more Jack is in a unique position where he has interviewed arguably, uh, a cohort of the best traders that ever lived.

Uh, and on top of that, I Mean it's endearing because whenever you get into trading, everyone seemingly ends up reading one of these books. And for me, similar thing. Oddly enough, I actually didn't read uh, Unknown Market Wizards First, he's written some other books and I didn't even know that it was the same Jack when I read his other books compared to his Market wizards, but that's just like a weird Side Story But anyway, so I'm interviewing him and I was doing all the prep work and I was reviewing some of my favorite quotes from the traders that he's interviewed and hold on a second here. I'll be able to tie this back.

One of these quotes was um, I believe it was by Bill Eckart. We, as humans, will do worse than random right now. If we talk about the market, you could show many, many times that it's normally distributed. For those of you who are math nerds, there's a Gosan distribution.

that big bell curve thing. Half the days are green, half the days are red. There's a slight bias towards the bullishness, but that's besides the point. It's effectively 5050.

Half the time it's red, half the time it's green. We tend to Trend up because there's a slight Edge for the Bulls and when the Bulls win, it's slightly higher. That's why there's a natural drift to the upside of the market. So without those little nuances, let's just assume it's 50/50 Why do we all underperform? That's a very fair question if the market is generically going up and we know that.

And other than that, like you would assume, 50% of people are winners, 50% of people are losers, and every day you should be around, right? 50/50 Why is there a difference? And I Think this statement really like does a good job at explaining it. This is by Bill eart obviously a worldclass. Trader We, as humans, will do worse than random and the reasoning for that is because we seek comfort. And so as humans, the way we're obviously we're hardwired like biologically.

we just care about survival. That's the point of a species is to survive. So what's interesting is if you're always looking for comfort and a place to survive, Well, if you think about the market in a general sense, the market doesn't really pay for Comfort at all. In fact, you could almost argue it doesn't care about that.

like whatsoever. It's in a in a motionless thing. It's just numbers going up, numbers going down. Obviously the people trading it have emotion.

but the market itself that's not what it pays for. Uh, or that's not what you have to do to be paid is probably the best way to to state that. So I think that's a very, almost profound psychological take on. even though most of these days are 5050, Why do 90 to 95% of people lose money? And I think it's right there.

It's because we're people. if you were just flipping a quarter. There's very famous studies of how like a monkey throwing a dart at a dart board, a monkey throwing a dart at random socks outperforms most hedge funds. Well, the monkey throwing the dart at whatever random stocks if I randomly spin a wheel.

Well, this one's a little special because it's a wheel of Destiny But if you were to spend like a non lucky a non-magic wheel, it'd be 50/50 It would most likely be better at trading than 90 to 95% of us in here. Um, and I think the reasoning for that is 100% emotion. So on that particular note, when we're going through not only today, but the rest of our trading careers remember that there's a very, very strong statistical argument that the weakest part of anyone's trading career meth, methodology, ideology of the market is just themselves and the um, emotional state. the lack of discipline.

the basically not trading like a system, not trading like a a cold robotic system. In Out, in out. um, it's more of like it's the emotions and myself included. like I'm not saying that I'm somehow special like Beyond this.

No. I mean even yesterday I made dumb trades I shouldn't have made um. But keep that in mind that there's a good chance that the the thing stopping you from being a profitable successful Trader is most likely your psychology and lack of discipline, not your knowledge or of the market or not finding the Holy Grail system. It really, it's going to just be your psychology.

Sticking to your trading plan would probably fix most of your problems. So anyway, uh, keep that as we go throughout the day. Today we got all these inflation reports coming in a little bit cooler than expected. That's great at 10:00 a.m.

We have one more big report today. at 10:00 A.m. we're getting the pending home sales. On top of that that, we also have a Fed member speaking today and then tomorrow.

Uh, we're not starting early, but we will be streaming later. Uh, like extra just because the Chairman of the FED Jerome pow will be speaking. So we weren't the only ones to get an inflation report this morning. The Euro Zone got an inflation Port that was really good.

So I know it's colored red and that's just because Investing.com puts in lower numbers as red. But the fact that inflation came in lower than expected, that's actually good. That's doish. that's bullish.

So uh, not just here in the US are we getting good inflation reports? Quote: Unquote good on a relative basis. Yes, life is still very much more expensive. but anyway, the Euro Zone inflation sinks to 2.4% below expectations. So same thing in Europe is going down in the US The price of living is going up.

It's just not going up at the same velocity at the same rate. So yes, life is definitively becoming more expensive, just not at the same rip roaring rate as it was roughly a year ago. Here's what it would take for the FED to start slashing in interest rates. Just so you know, here's the FED watch: Tool Uh, December 13th is the next Fomc meeting.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As of now, there's a 96% chance that we are staying at the 5.25% chance we are currently at. If you do, fast forward to about May June July By the time you get to July, there's a 90 95% chance that by that point we'll have at least one fed cut to the FED fund rate. Uh, so just want to throw that out there.

Obviously this changes because if you looked at historically I mean if you rewind a year, people were predicting for one or two rate Cuts this year this calendar year in 2023. So once again, it shows you how good predictions are. Predictions are pretty much useless when there are people who dedicate their entire life. get all the fancy schmancy degrees, the undergrad, the Masters, the PHD, and there a room with all these other Financial nerds who talk about this stuff day in and day out.

And they're big. call out is that we're getting fed like Cuts this year and then they're completely wrong. When their big call out is that we're inflation is transitory. When their big call out is that we're going to crash.

when their big call out is that we're going to rip and they're always wrong and wrong and wrong and wrong and wrong and wrong. It kind of tells you something about the system of how there's a lot more Randomness involved and I don't think it's purely Randomness personally if you ask me. I think it's just because it's the most infinite like mult High variant equation we've ever invented like it's always changing Global Conflicts inflation Food Supplies Commodities Retail coming into the market going out of the market new hedge funds, lack of hedge funds big Banks Like it. it's always changing and because of that I Don't think it's actually random.

but I think it's so. There's so many variables involved that it's effectively random. and then on that point, okay, like if if I'm saying it's random, do I think you could be profitable in the market without a doubt because I think there's Pockets where you have to specifically pick and choose that that actually isn't random and if we're we really to dive into it I think that those Pockets where it's a little bit more predictable. It's kind of like one of these things where 99% of the time I think it's random 1% of the time I think it's predictable.

Why do we have that 1% I Don't think it's because of high frequency Traders I Don't think it's because of market makers I Don't think it's because of Alos I Think it's because of people who are trading and their psychology I Think the times where you have a quantifiable Edge It's because you're taking advantage of mass psychology and basically the tendency for Mass psychology to be wrong within the markets. That's my thoughts. That's my opinions. Uh, maybe I'm right, Maybe I'm wrong.

But hey, it's served me decently well thus far. So anyway, tying that all back to what's going on right now. Yeah, we have these predictions: They think that they're going to cut the FED fund rate by mid next year, will they? I Don't know. Like, maybe seems reasonable.

but in terms of what's happening today, in terms of you being a degenerate today, does that really impact anything? Uh, so make sure when you're interpreting news, don't have a mismatch on time frames. If you're here as a day trader, you don't give two Hoots about what's going on. Next year you care about today and vice versa. If you're a medium to long-term investor, you don't care about what happens today specifically.

So make sure the information you're taking in digesting and trying to do an analysis on actually has an impact on the time frame that you're trading because there are people who are just scalpers and this call out of what's going on with inflation. This that the other thing doesn't matter at all. And then on the flip side, we could have a super volatile day. a super boring day.

It doesn't matter on an individual day if you're investing in a stock for the next 5 to 10 years. So make sure once again that the analysis of the information you're doing is somehow relevant to the time frame that you're actually trading and or investing on. So just want to throw that out to everyone. But anyway, back to this.

Here's what it would take for the FED to start slashing interest rates in 2024. If the Fed meets Market expectations and starts cutting aggressively in 2024. It likely will be against a backdrop of a sharply slowing economy and Rising unemployment. This right here is The Telltale sign of why Exactly From the 1960s until now, whenever the FED has started cutting interest rates, there's this big big misconception that as soon as you hear that the Fed's starting to cut interest rates, that's the best time to buy into equities.

It is not. The data tells us the exact opposite. I will beat this into everyone's head. If you're listening to me right now and you think it's a good idea to start buying equities When you hear that the Fed's cutting interest rates, you are wrong.

Nothing in the data at all suggests literally. perfectly opposite from the 1960s until now. If you look at all the rate hike and cut Cycles From the announcement of the first cut, the median drop in the market is double digits so you don't need to be the person front running and be like oh, I hear that the FED is cutting rates I Should buy, buy, Buy? No, No, no, if anything, you should have a weird lag about like I don't know I could find the exact number out for you, but it's going to be multiple months, probably in the realm of sixish months. Every single time the FED has started cutting rates.

Once again, just to re iterate the importance of this, the market from that moment until its actual bottom has gone down double digits literally every single time. So please do not just think oh, Fed Fund like they're cutting it I need to buy. And the reason for it is because a lot of the times when they're actually cutting the rate, it's because the economy is so crappy or unemployment is so bad and then obviously the market like oh wow, if it's that bad that the Fed's cutting rates, it must be worse than they're even telling us and the market interprets it in a pretty pessimistic man manner. So just throwing that out there market price has gone even more aggressive on Fed policy easing with Fed Fund Futures now pointing to 54 percentage Point rate Cuts Next year, the market keeps trying to front run these rate cuts, only to be disappointed.

Without a doubt, all these predictions of like oh, like they're going to cut, They're going to do this like they've just been wrong. They've been more wrong than they have been. right. On an individual note, yes, we're still technically getting some earnings after the market closes.

We're going to hear from Alto. We're going to hear here from Dell Uh, but we're basically done with earning season, so we're going to be on a couple week break and then earning season will start again. But with that being said, there's still a lot of excitement going on in certain individual companies and I would argue the most exciting news is what's been going down in the world of Twitter AKA X So I'm sure you guys already saw this on the internet, but it is truly crazy. This all happened yesterday at the New York Times book Summit whatever that is.

Uh, Elon Musk Was invited to speak with Andrew Ross Sorin and it was the most hilarious debacle. I've seen in many moon Elon Musk claims advertisers are trying to blackmail him and he tells them to go f yourself folks. Me reading this is not going to do it justice. It's not going to do it justice whatsoever.

So I figured we might as well spend today getting the entire stream demonetized and let's just listen to the clips instead. Apology toour if you will. That this had been said online, there was all of the criticism. there was advertisers leaving we talked to: Bob Iger I Hope they stop you Hope, uh, don't advertise.

You don't want them to advertise. No, what do you mean If somebody's going to try to Blackmail me with advertising blackmail with money, go yourself. That's the moment right there where CNBC knew they were getting fined. Uh, there are some rules about like certain language that can't be used and if like your delay is not long enough you don't have the time like they weren't predicting that he was going to swear so the delay was very short so they didn't have the time to bleep it out and then he doubles down on it.

CNBC most likely got fined by this for this. but yourself is that clear I hope it is. Hey Bob here in the audience well let me happing about um Bob Iger from Disney that's how I feel Advertise: how do you think then about apology tour So that was the clip that's circulating that's causing everyone to just go like absolutely crazy with it and then obviously this is just certain advertisers pulling off the platform. uh, one of them recently was Disney and yeah, they're taking somewhat of a political stance I would see I would argue but on top of that Disney is basically trying to just not go like bust right now.

Bob Iger says the Marvels had little supervision in Disney has made too many sequels so let me I guess be clear on this: there's certain aspects of Disney As a company that are doing very, very well. the parks are doing okay ESPN doing pretty well. But then there's other aspects of Disney because remember, Disney owns a ton of things. There's certain business pillars that are doing very, very weak, such as their movie creation business.

Uh, and right now like it's just bust after bust after bust. I mean they've lost I think at this point in the most recent 10 movies I think it's now exceeded a billion dollars in losses so not good. uh Bob Iger brought back Bob Iger was there then they put in Bob Chic now Bob Iger is back and he's trying to like write the ship and basically they're trying to trim off the fat and figure out what's working what's not working. So with this I think for Disney I think it's such a a dumpster fire financially for them right now that they just don't want to take on on the risk of like not knowing which way this whole Twitter thing is going to break and if I had to imagine I think they're taking a step back be like okay we just don't want to be involved with it like we don't want to be like associated with it but unfortunately the fact that they took the step back to not be associated with it.

obviously Elon is now putting them on blast and they are very much now associated with it. but we're seeing other companies as well. like changing their spending on Twitter and obviously I mean I even SE in chat right here. So Chris you're specifically against Elon and then there's people who are in here who are specifically supporting it.

like literally backto back comments right here on that me showing that video someone wrote thug Life and then someone wrote he was anti-semitic and that's what's so interesting to me is there. it's 50/50 on Elon It very much is. and whatever cohort people seem to be in, they can't even imagine people on the other side. and it's literally occurring right here in chat.

Right now, there are people who absolutely love the guy and they think he's amazing and they think he's hilarious and like they don't understand how you could hate on him. And literally. also in this chat right now, there's people who absolutely hate him. You're accusing him of being anti-semitic and you can't even wrap your mind around the fact that he has Fanboys And that's why I tweeted it out is I mean my tweet yesterday was Elon's fans are now digging their heels into the ground even more and they're applauding him more.

They love him more now because of the this recent talk. and then the people who hate Elon They're even more angry now and it's solidifying their hatred for him. He is clearly one of the most polarizing figures ever like, and it's to the point that people like, they cannot see the other side and I just find it fascinating From a more of a psychological standpoint of a person who is the definition of polarizing, who hates Elon many people hate Elon and then on the other side who loves Elon many people love Elon and that's what I Just find fascinating. It's like go on.

Twitter Uh, you're going to see like a pretty strong break of the two parties and you can see even in chat right now I I Personally find it to be fascinating U but actually going on that, where is my Twitter So this is why like I mean you could even see it right here Elon Fans have fallen more in love Elon Haters are punching the air even higher. Hired her wild interview and that like it is the definition of polarization. um you know what I found to be the most funny though is like I get it I get that the whole like go F yourself he swore and like everyone gets jacked up by that. That's not the part of the interview that actually made me like cry from laughing.

it was just him absolutely dunking on Andrew Ross Sorin Listen to this clip. This was my favorite part. so I will certainly not Pander and Jonathan like the only reason I'm here if you didn't catch that, he called him Jonathan so let me replay it one more time. but he called him Jonathan so I will certainly not Pand and Jonathan like the only reason I'm here is because you were a friend.

like what was my speaking fee you you're not making any first of all I'm Andrew but first of all I'm Andrew Second of all, we've known each other for a very long time. We've known each other for a very long time. calls him Jonathan like what a Savage way to like That's so funny dude. What a psychological maneuver.

I actually think it was truly an accident. but imagine if you went into every interview and like you know, the other other person is like full of them. eles like a little grandiose to the point of wearing a bright blue suit and like crossing your legs at the deal book. Summit and you just call them the wrong name like he just like 100% call him the wrong name I don't know why I just thought that was particularly funny.

uh what is this one? There was another clip that I wanted to share and what I see all over the place is people who care about looking good while doing evil them and what I see place because I think this is I don't know I hope I hope this is something we could all agree on. Um, obviously if you're an Elon Fanboy you're already going to agree with it. and then if you particularly don't like Elon I still feel like this is a statement that makes a lot of sense and what? I see all over the place is people who care about looking good while doing evil them. And what is there anything that sums up the I guess current political turmoil in the US or globally better than that statement.

people who are attempting to look good but yet are doing evil so like I Get right away. people who don't like Elon You're not going to like the statement just because it came from Elon but imagine if someone else said it I feel like you would support it. Whatever political person like you think about, that's like if they said it, you'd be like yeah, that makes sense. That's literally him.

Has Elon done everything right and good? No, I wouldn't agree with that. but if you were to tally up his impact between good and bad, he is a net good for society You you can't disagree with that. He is the person who brought EV to the mainstream. He's the person who's going to provide the entire globe with internet.

He is the person who is attempting to defend freedom of speech. He is the person who's going to make our spe species multiplanetary as an individual human like if you had to be in his friend. Circle He's probably a harsh person just because like he is a very very intense person. but he is.

It is very much good that Elon Musk is a human being He it is like with without a doubt it is very much good that he is like here part of our species doing what he's doing. Has he done everything right? No. Has he everything he says do I Agree with absolutely not. but he is making very important technical strides forward for our species that relates to saving our species and saving the planet and also having the entire planet interconnected.

That's all because of Elon Musk And this isn't even talking about some of his earlier work such as like just the financial sector with PayPal and all that stuff So like, do you have to like him no like I'm not saying everything he has done is good like I'm not saying that at all, but it is very very much good that Elon Musk is a person like and if you don't agree with that, you're basically saying oh no I thought someone else would do Eevee no I thought someone else would make it like in interplanetary species like humans like So I'm not going to sit here and be like everything like I'm not thinking that he's Mother Teresa esque. No, but it is net good like. if you add up all the good, all the bad, the net good I would argue wins out and if you don't agree with that okay I I don't know know I guess like we all have our own opinions like so like we could you could think what you want to think um but I don't know I I I my I guess thesis on it all. breaking it all down is that he is very very much n good.

Were there other uh Elon were there I just want to see if there was any other hot takes. So I found the whole interview. um unfortunately it's very, very long. Uh, wait.

what was this one perception? that and and you're clarifying this now. Um, but there's a public perception that that was part of here Chris this one's for you. This is on the anti-Semitism Obviously you know that there's a public perception that and and you're clarifying this now. Um, but there's a public perception that that was part of a apology tour if you will that this had been said online.

there was all of the criticism. There was advertisers leaving we talked to. Bob Iger I Hope they stop you Hope: uh, don't advertise. You don't want them to advertise.

no. what do you mean Go to yourself If somebody's going to try to Blackmail me with advertising blackmailing with money. go yourself. Conceptually, it is kind of tough to Blackmail the world's richest person with money that is.

It is kind of funny, but go yourself. Is that clear I hope it is. Hey Bob here in the audience. Well, well let me ask you.

then that's how I feel. Don't advertise. How do you think then about the economics of of X? If if if if part of the underlying model at least today and maybe it needs to shift, maybe the answer is it needs to shift away from advertising. Um, if if you believe that this is the one part of your business where you will be beholden to those who, uh, have this, View you do FY I I I Understand, But there's a reality too, right? Yes, no, noan.

Linda Yino is right here and she's got to sell advertis? Absolutely So, um, no, no to totally so So no. Actually, what what this advertising boycott is uh, is is going to do? It's going to kill the company. And do you think that the But and the whole world will know that those advertisers killed the company and we will document it in great detail? But there are those advertisers I Imagine are going to say they're going to say we can kill the company. Oh yeah, they're going to say tell it to tell it to Earth But they're going to say that they're going to say Elon that you killed the company because you said these things and that they were inappropriate things and they didn't feel comfortable on the platform.

right? That's that's what they're going to say. And let's see how Earth responds to that. So man, okay, this then this right there. Andrew has some interesting points like and yeah, I Think when people think about it in a very logical way, they could be like it's because of your actions that people pulled out and inherently you shot yourself in the foot.

but then Elon's also simultaneously right. I Don't think these are mutually exclusive because Elon is pulling out more of the populist Viewpoint I Mean even think about it in the world of like the mem sock craze, Think about it literally in that of people fighting against the concept of trying to blow up someone's company, he is pulling on the exact same populace thing that got Gme AMC Doge and Sheba to go absolutely rampant. This concept of fighting against anyone who's trying to ruin a company. And when you have an entity that is a business IBM Apple Uh Disney And then you have a person, people are going to resonate with the person.

This is just. this is just psychology when you have Elon Who is a troll like whatever. Maybe you like it or maybe you don't like it. But the internet loves supporting trolls.

The Internet is always going to support trolls and people making fun of these entities that are businesses who take themselves too seriously folks. I Don't think this is shocking news to anyone, but when it comes to the world of the Internet, it's not cool to be like taken seriously. Elon The troll is love because of that and then obviously some people don't like him because he won't take anything seriously. But when you're talking about a troll versus a business who's trying to be proper and uptight, the troll is going to win 10 out of 10 times.

That's just how psychology goes. And with this, when he's talking about Earth like there's going to be a giant rallying. The way there was a giant rallying. kind of like an Fu Occupy Wall Street that's going to happen again Elon has the ability to stoke that I Mean even if you look on Twitter you're going to see a lot of people now boycotting Disney from this I I Think what we're seeing is a situation where there's going to be a a populous Uprising to support Twitter and we're already seeing it I mean what was it I Saw the quartering I Saw Timcast um I saw Daily Wire all like upping their subscription saying hey, we're going to increase our advertising and I think more companies will follow suit the Smart Companies will because right now advertising could Tim P Brought this up, you could offer it for less and so yes, you could have some people who are early adopters of it.

They get advertising for L and then they're just making Leaps and Bounds on top of their competitors who refuse to advertise. So there is an interesting business chess move here for Elon of you find the direct competitors of people who are pulling out. You offer the direct competitors cheaper advertising and you ask him to buy a lot of it and with that that'll Stoke it. Uh, but even if it doesn't I think it's mutually a sheer destruction is if the advertising pulls out of Twitter and fails as a business I Think on the flip side, you still have 50% of people who are going to hate the other companies for doing it.

and if they get boycotted, they can die too. Um so all of a sudden like let's just use Disney as like one example. all of a sudden like the theater business is not good and then if it's boycotted because of that and all of a sudden everyone's just not watching Disney movies anymore because of this. I mean the dude has what over 100 million followers? he could have a true impact on their bottom line.

Um, it's kind of more of, um, what's a good example more of like a Taylor Swift You know how whenever Taylor Swift does anything it can greatly like be positive to a business? Well Elon Musk is more willing to wield his power in both ways. he'll benefit things. we've seen that with him, like he'll say anything about Doge and Doge rips. On the flip side, if he says something bad.

there's also a very clear negative impact, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I guess like I'm doing my best to be objective and see it both ways, but it is funny like it totally is funny. fun to see how this all all how this all played out. Oh I mean even right here, my Disney Plus subscription is now canceled I canceled my Disney Plus subscription Disney plus uh cancelled Canel like right here he's calling out one company and within a couple hours after it happened, people are already reacting to it.

so it's going to be a populous fight, there's going to be two sides to it. and just with the fact that Elon Do does own Twitter and he's what like a top three followed person on Twitter he'll have a massive impact. He'll have a massive massive impact, so it'll be interesting to see how that all plays out. But that was big news from yesterday bringing it back to the markets of the day if you're joining in right now.

First of all, thank you thank you thank you! Don't forget to smash the like button. It helps me out with the algorithm on both Rumble and on YouTube Make sure you subscribe on both just in case I get taken down from one. you'll be able to find me on the other one. so hit the like button.

Don't forget to subscribe. Thank you thank you thank you! Um, we started early today because we got another inflation report. The PC report came out at 8:30 this morning. Talking about that report I thought it was actually pretty dobish.

I Actually thought it was pretty bullish. Uh, right now the Market's dipping a bit on the news I'm curious to see if it will hold it came out at 8:30 right where my cursor is. We did pop up a little bit. we're giving it back, but the Pce report uh, not including Core like just the overall PC report came in at expectation, but or no Core came in at expectation, but the overall PC report came in slightly less than expected.

as an inflation isn't as bad as really the world would have you believe. um, or at least what the expectation was for it. So I thought it was bullish I thought it was doish. So that's kind of just like my gut reaction to what's going on.

I'm curious to see where we're going to open up and how things are really going to play out, but just because I have a gut reaction and all that. like once again, I'm going to trade off the price, action it like I'm not I do my best to take out my gut CU I Don't think my gut trading is that good at Trading I Like to be a lot more systematic and just measuring risk, reward, and ideally get myself into situation where the deck is sacked in my favor, which is a fancy schmancy way to just say that the odds are like favoring what I'm doing. Uh, so at 10: A.m. today, a half hour into the trading day, we're going to get the pending home sales report and then also a Fed member is also speaking today tomorrow Jerome Pal's speaking and we also have some reports before that.

um, mat. Locals.com In the description of the video, you could get this newsletter my breakdown of the previous week. What? I'm looking towards the upcoming week: All the major macroeconomic events, all the major earnings I Think you'll care about this section is going to get um I don't know. Kind of small in the next coming weeks just because we're done with earning season in terms of seasonality.

So looking at what are we at Thursday November 30th pretty much a neutral day. a slight bearish lean. The Bulls have won this day 48% of the time. The profit factor is below 1.83 which means it's leaning bearish.

I wouldn't say it's a bearish day. Here's a look at the equity curve. So over the past 25 years the Bulls have won this 48% of the time. so slightly less than flipping a quarter and you could see that was kind of neutral.

Kind of a selloff, then a little bit more of a downturn. recently. Over the past two years it went up so kind of a neutral day. neutral, leaning bearish, but nothing to not as like dominant as Tuesday of this week was just to throw that out there.

Uh, and then I update you on some zero DTE stuff. But anyway, Mac. Locals.com if you're interested in that. the one thing that I want to talk about with all of you.

um, oh maybe we should do this because we have about 15 minutes until the Market opens. so uh, very quickly. don't forget to vote. Um, if you are new to the channel every single day at Market open I make a trade based on whatever Chat tells me to do.

Right now, the Bulls are dominating the day 69% LOL So vote that pulls up on YouTube Right now on Rumble you could just write green or red bullish or bearish. Uh, and while you guys are doing that, let's give a quick shout out to Uh, one of today's stream: Partners Tax Network USA The October 15th tax deadline has passed and I know many of you might be feeling the pressure if you're sorting through the complexities of expense tracking, estimated payments, and all those deductions causing failure to file and failure to pay penalties to pile up on your tax debt. The Team at Tax Network USA has a track record of success. having reduced tax debts for numerous clients totaling over $1 billion.

That's 1 billion with a B. Whether you're looking at a $10,000 tax debt or A1 million challenge, they can help you with a settlement. Even if you haven't filed in one five or a Whole Decade they're equipped to secure the best settlement for you. The expert attorneys and tax professionals at Tax Network USA have helped resolve all tax cases no matter how it started.

But now and these powerful tax debt relief programs are expected to change. Go to Tax Network Usa.com slat or you could call the number on the top of the screen. another way to summarize that and once again, it's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of The video.

If you need help with taxes, whether you have old taxes or remember, April will be here in the blink of an eye. These are all the services that they offer. It's just tax professional. so if you're looking for your first tax professional looking to switch it up, you might as well try try it out.

I Mean you could get a free consultation to talk about your particular situation. Here's the phone number once again: Tax Network USA Uh, just go Tax Network Usa.com pin in the top of chat in the description of the video and obviously shout out to them for being a partner of today's stream. And with that back to what we're seeing in the market. Let me drop this to the one minute one minute Bitcoin sitting there.

what else do we want to bring up? Invidious, chilling. All right, let's maybe at Open we should look at some bonds and maybe we should look at the dollar as well just to see how things really go at Open today. Um, if there's individual equities, um I what was the one that was going crazy? was it Vivas Some therapeutic play. This is one that I saw going haywire on fin tweet yesterday cuz it was up 833.

Uh, just going. Absolutely nuts. It's a health technology Medical Specialties Play not really my particular cup of tea. that's just not necessarily what I like to do.

uh, but crazy volatility I I I Cannot be more clear about this. I myself will be staying away from it I am not going to be touching it but I just want to let you know this was definitely. um I guess like the main talk of Finn twit yesterday of how crazy Vivos was going. um I don't play Pharma plays these like it's just they're high-flying It's binary I don't feel like I have a particular Edge but that's just me other people trading it.

Hey, if you have an edge and you're consistently profitable I implore you to keep doing it. if it. If something's making you money, why would you stop doing it? There's many, many ways to make money in this market. An infinite amount of ways to make money.

There's not like one perfect methodology that is the best methodology to trade. You should be trading the thing that makes you consistently profitable. What is this overrated globalist? Trump Slams Jamie Diamond for praising Nikki Haley So I saw that who was it? The Co? The Coch brothers right they supported Nikki Haley Trump Slams JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond for praising Nikki Haley former president Donald Trump blash out at Jamie Diamond as an overrated globalist after the JP Morgan CEO praise rival Republican Nikki Haley Diamond has publicly urged Business Leaders to help H's presidential campaign. Hy has recently gained steam in polls putting pressure on Florida Governor Rona Santis for the second place position.

Wait, so did did she pass Vivc I Thought Vivic was I thought it when Trump to Santis Fic has she now passed Vivic in the polls? Uh, let's look that up. I'm now kind of curious GOP Pole: Uh presidential polls Uh 2024 this is by 538 Nate Silver Uh DeSantis is at 13. Oh Haley is number three. it goes Trump then DeSantis then Haley and Haley has been slowly.

but like this isn't the best visual. it's kind of like this dark green. She has slowly but surely been on the uprise as DeSantis has slowly but surely been on. uh, the downtrend.

Ramas has also been downtrending ever since. whatever time. Um, so yeah, no. Haley Uh.

closing the Gap Des Santis at 13 Haley at 9.9 but uh. DeSantis trending the wrong way and Haley trending the right way. Ramas Swami also arguably trending the wrong way. At one point, Ramaswami was like very close to the DeSantis polling numbers back in August Interesting, interesting, interesting.

So Trump obviously not happy about about that. but the news I read yesterday was relative to Nikki Haley I Believe the Coch brothers actually, um, like announced their endorsement of her yesterday. Uh, powerful. Rich family.

Five things to know before the stock market B goes dingy Ding ding ding today Thursday the final trading day of November November Rain Well, things are looking pretty good overall. In the month of November, it's been a green month. A very green month. What's it going to take? This is talking about the rate Cuts Probably coming mid next year.

Go f yourself. We talked about that with Elon Musk and the book Summit and calling Andrew Jason and I just thought it was a interesting, like emotional slam on him. Five years. That's all we've got with this.

Oh, this is talking about artificial general intelligence and this is Jensen the CEO of Nvidia talking about like how many more years until like artificial intelligence is like the real deal and it's here. So I think he said three to five years. An update from Ford going the same way as GM giving a positive signal that maybe the world of automaking will be less volatile right now. It seems like we're getting to the end of the UAW strike and kind of reaffirming some future guidance.

GM actually going to the extent of doing a buyback. So um, some positivity in the world of I Guess classic automaking? Are we missing anything else? Well, CNBC is on a break. they're on a break I Never go on a break, you know I'm I I'll sit here for hours on end talking to you guys US Economy Lo In recent weeks with inflation, labor cooling should be good for the market and yet the Market's a little bit a tad red this morning. Sam Alman Won the war for open AI Now comes winning the piece I Don't think the media is picking this up enough, but the Reuters reported that the Open AI board ousted him because of a recent technical breakthrough that they thought he was pushing too hard without them really like making sure everything was good.

Basically, it seemed like a Terminator Skynet esque thing and I don't know why he's like the media is not really picking up that aspect of it. It almost seems like Sam Alman was generically liked and everyone was on Sam Alman's side, but if you look into like some of the murmurs of why he was removed, it kind of sounded like he was being a little bit too Brazen with AI and not really like checking himself and I I I find personally that to be a little bit concerning I don't want to be like the slave to a robot population Army in a couple years uh and I don't the media just kind of forgot about that? The media's like oh no Sam Alman's back but it's like maybe we should get a little bit more information on like what the technical breakthrough was and why he was ousted and what the board's reasoning was because if the board was just saying hey dude, this is like a mad scientist running crazy, well maybe that should be stated to everyone and I don't know what it is like Obviously this might surprise you guys, but I wasn't called up for the board decision this time around. Uh, but if if it was anything in that realm I I think that should be disgusted like I don't know that one. It feels like it could get bad and it feels like it could get bad pretty pretty quick.

Anywh, who? Um, just a weird little update there. So I do have uh, the options ready to see what's going to go on this morning. Uh, we have all of that. We don't need this one right now.

The Importance of Being Open-minded hey I agree. What is this? Uh, Paler, What's Dan I saying about Paler? Well I think institutional I