So i got one more: i got one more what up what up what up crazy stuff today, wednesday march 16th, if you are watching this live, you are seeing a lot of whipsaw. You are seeing a lot of action to the upside to the downside. Back to the upside, it's just it's whiplash! If you don't have your helmet and your neck brace on this is not a good scenario for you to be in, and we're just seeing the markets whip whip whip. Why are they whipping well? A lot of it has to do with the fed announcement, which came out at 2 p.m and, as predicted as i was attempting to kind of, let everyone know the expectations for a one-quarter of a percent increase.

A 0.25 percent increase a also referred to as 25 bips and that's exactly what we got: ding ding ding ding. It was the first rate hike ever since december of 2018.. Now there was some other information and that's why, if you look at 2pm from 2 to 2 30, the market sold off and you had some like i'm looking at tlt here we had some bonds selling off the gold's been volatile, we saw crypto sell off and There were some other things beyond that because you might be saying well hang on, if you a guy who is fashionable but really doesn't have a professional training in the markets. If you knew is going to be a 25 bips shouldn't all these professionals and if all these professionals run the market, why did we sell off? That's honestly a great question and it comes to some other things that were in the notes, basically and a lot of it.

It centers around policy, error, error, error, error, policy, error. What i mean by that is there's some concerns, that okay were they and when i say they i mean the central bank, the fed, were they too slow in 2021 and are now? Are they too fast in 2022, with their monetary policy? And what i'm referring to is really the fact that they're, like we're, probably expecting seven rate hikes this year, maybe eight or maybe the eighth one will be in february of 2023. So basically they're saying we might have a rate hike for literally every single meeting. For the remainder of the year, there's like six more after this one and maybe then the first one of 2023, or maybe they have an emergency one to raise it again.

Whatever it is, people are like wow, that's that's actually pretty hawkish, that's pretty extreme, especially because six months ago they were still being super accommodative to the overall economy like they were still continuing to buy mortgage-backed securities bonds uh. They were helping with the repo market and no one. No one was calling for a rate hike that now that was just six months ago and now they're saying hey. We actually might do seven in a row counting the one we just had, or maybe seven this year, counting the one we just had and then you even had bullard, who is the fed member out of st louis who's? Like you know, in fact, i didn't even want a 0.25 increase.

I wanted a 0.5 which that is a very, very hawkish tone, but to be fair throughout all this bullard has been, i would say, arguably one of the more hawkish guys in this scenario, just trying to battle inflation, because people are trying to not like fall behind The curve on that another thing that's been really really discussed. Is this whole concept of the yield curve at flattening and, if very, very quickly, to understand, remember you buy bonds, bonds, pay yield. Basically, your money's tied up and for your money being tied up for x amount of time you get a little kickback for that. Well, obviously, the longer your money sign up.

You get a more of a kickback. Well, if the payoff for the 2 and the 10 is the same, that's telling you that, on a relative basis, people are really favoring the 10, because they don't have that much optimism for what's about to happen in the short term. And what i'm talking about there is basically the two year yield so you're going to hear a lot about the 210 flattening and around 230 right before powell actually started talking because remember, there's a 30-minute delay between the results being posted and powell actually talking. We saw things going down, the market was going down, the market was going down, the market was going down and we saw that they weren't that close to flattening, but they were heading in that direction.

I'm talking about the two and the ten year uh so that had people like uh all right, big money's, not that optimistic about what the market's about to do over the next two years. But in terms of like okay. How good are things? How bad are things like? How are we defining good or bad? I want to give you some numbers so right now the inflation, the most recent inflationary report was 7.9 and that's the consumer price index. The median fed member is projecting for it to get to down to 4.3 by the end of this year, 2.7 in 2023 and 2.3 percent in 2024.

Right now we're at 7.9, so even by this year, with their rate hikes of doing one, every single meeting, they're thinking, they could get it down to 4.3. So that's once again for on inflate or inflation, unemployment is already very. Very solid. Unemployment is coming in at 3.8 percent.

They actually think it'll drop to 3.5 by the end of this year and they're looking to coast at 3.5. That's a very, very good reading and if you keep hearing jerome powell talk about it, he'll keep referring to how tight the labor market is another thing to consider. Last year the gdp growth was 5.8, which is sky high, very, very high this year, they're looking for it to drop down to 2.8 by the end of the year. For like the 20, 20 22 numbers, and i get that's a notable percentage decline.

But it's still a very good number and then they're looking for it to drop even more in 2023 to 2.2 percent and then 2 in 2024. Overall, those are like the major numbers when i'm talking about the tight labor market. Another thing that they really tried to like get home there was labor supply is down uh for every like person seeking a job, i suppose like actively in the labor force. Looking for a job, there's 1.7 job openings, that's important to know so labor supply down, but overall we're in a scenario where inflation is high.

Maybe we can hit that 4.3 by the end of the year. Maybe we can. Maybe we can't - i don't know, but in real time it's very high, very, very high and in real time, there's also beyond just like the supply chain issues that we've been hearing about on an individual like level per company. We've been hearing about these really just the economic contraction that could be actually expediated by the whole ukraine, russia ordeal that we currently see and with it, depending on what tweet or what news source you're reading or not reading.

Sometimes you hear a positive thing of like hey we're, making progress on the topics talks and then all of a sudden, like the white house today said, putin has made no efforts to actually like uh, improve things like to stop his like wartime actions. So a little bit of a mixed bag there. In that scenario it could prompt a global economic retraction which would be bad for gdp and then all of a sudden, if you're at sky-high, inflation and gdp, is shrinking well now you're in literal stagflation. So that's one way this could break and, i would say that's more of the bearish route, but then on the bullish route, like i said, they're looking for unemployment to it's already very low they're, looking forward to edge a little bit lower they're looking to take really Rain in inflation, ideally by the end of next year, and then at that point, it's not like that far out and in terms of the federal fund rate right now, it's up to like 0.25 and they're looking for the median projection to be 1.9 by the end Of this year, 2.8, 2023 and they're, keeping it at 2.8 for 2024., so overall yeah.

This is above, like the neutral rate that they're shooting for of 2, but it's essentially just to counteract really their unlimited quantitative easing that they had to do over the past. What two years to help us get out of the whole pandemic era? So a lot of interesting things going on and really today is a very very good example of that saying in the like. In the world of reactions to fed policy of the first movement is typically the wrong one, and what do i mean by that right here? Let's just check out the spy at 2 pm we sold sold, sold and then jerome powell started speaking at 2, 30 and boom. We popped right off of that.

So this is why we have that saying when it comes to monetary policy meetings, the first move is typically the wrong one and once again, that old adage is currently holding true. So i just wanted to share that with you. We saw the same thing in bitcoin. Bitcoin went from 40 000 down to 39 400 and then we almost went damn near back up to 41.

uh. I had mullin up just because i was curious if it was going to break above 1.75. I myself have no position in mullen and then i was looking at bonds. These are the 20-year treasury tlt uh.

You could also look at things like hyg, which this is a box. One shares eibach high yield composite bond etf, same thing, sold off popped. You could look at things like gold. Gold had a crazy reaction at first, it actually popped.

Then it sunk now. Gold is ripping so like just crazy, crazy volatility prompted not only by the initial announcement at two but then on the retraction um. I i suppose the market doing the opposite after pal started speaking. But overall, if you listen to his speech - and we were streaming that on the crypto channel shout out to everyone who came over there, we broke 5000 subs.

So i was happy to enjoy that milestone with all of you um, but talking about what we're seeing right here, like just so much so much insane volatility i mean, and on the spy someone pointed out over there, uh we saw both gap fills both gap fills So this morning we saw it to the upside this afternoon. We saw it to the downside and then that bounce like, if you listen to the full speech of what i was just saying, uh, he was just very, very confident. He like he multiple times he was like hey. I look at like all the fed members and like we have this like we have the tools at our disposal to have this under control.

He had a very firm tone that he had a grasp on the situation. One of his quotes was that we are not going to see a recession this year. Basically that wasn't it verbatim, but he said i think it's we're not going to see it. I pray fingers crossed that he like doesn't have to like eat those words.

One of these days um that's kind of a bold statement. I'm actually surprised that he said it, but i don't know. I really the other thing that i don't get he's like this inflation. It came out of nowhere dude your balance sheet is nine trillion dollars.

Well, if we want to be technical 8.9, but let's just round up it's 9 trillion dollars. What do you mean this inflation came out of nowhere. You were printing money like a drunken sailor and i get like hey. You might have your reasoning to do it.

Maybe you're saying well, the alternative would have been worse if we didn't do anything and we let the economy take the full-on brunt of the hit from rona, okay yeah, that, like maybe we can have that discussion but overall, just to say like oh we're, like super Surprised like man this, this inflation, it was hiding in the closet and i had no idea what it was doing like. Ah, that's a little silly, that's actually a lot of silly. That's not even just a little silly. That's a lot of silly man like 9 trillion that you didn't do that by accident and if you're like anything in this world, if you're, like loading up on supply and demand's the same well, yeah you're gon na devalue it like, of course that's what do you Think happens when you put 9 trillion dollars into economy.

Of course, you're inflating it like dude. You could take econ 101 and understand that breakdown. I don't know this is wild wild wild wild and now you're, just seeing uh a reasonable wild volatile reaction to it. V-Shape craziness um, just so you know, i still have my tesla puts uh they're gon na expire worthless.

I got at first i was like okay, things are going down, maybe i'll get lucky, but we didn't get that capitulation. We bounced off the key psychological level in the spy 425 and now everything's bouncing so um right now, not a not a fun day to be my positions, i made a little bit of money in the futures market with uh, i sold some spy contracts on the Way down collected some of that money and it offset the loss from tesla, but i'm going to be eating the brunt of that loss for sure hey. You can't win them all. I'm not here sitting saying that i am some crazy guru, awesome expert trader.

I have winning trades, i have losing trades. It just so happens that that tesla trade uh was definitely one that bit me in the ass. It happens. Uh.

Where did you learn to use payment from the whole gasparino? I learned it from you dad. I learned it from you: hey matt, thanks for learning me a lot. You are awesome. What do you think about prague greetings from sweden, i'm in prague, i'm in it for the long term, though, i'm not really.

I don't actively trade product. You can see that i have it on public if you haven't signed up for public, it's in the description, no payment for overflow, no market makers - you might as well get on it because you also get free stock. When you sign up it's a it's a win-win-win-win um, but i'm still in prague uh, i i'm hopeful for its long-term potential. So i put some money in it and i'm more than happy to sit on that for years.

What else uh you're? Still our love guru? Oh man, i appreciate that um shout out, oh for everyone that dropped a like. I appreciate that and shout out to all the new, the moon gang members hey if you're new - and this is your first time fighting me - we talk about a lot of stuff. We talk about cheetos, we talk about sangria, we talk about cappuccinos, we talk about lattes, we talk about ducks. Sometimes we even talk about the market.

If that's something that you're interested in, but overall a lot a lot of chit chat. Amc is literally working on a dividend uh they might be working on it, but it won't be anytime soon, like it's, not they're, not going to give a dividend most likely until they pay off their debt and they're not going to pay off their debt. For like definitely a hot minute, i am, i am not holding my breath on an amc dividend and also even if they had a dividend, i don't think that's going to be like the magic like solution to what's going on, um yeah, some of the shorts will Cover because they're not going to want to pay it, but like it's not going to be the magic solution in my opinion, so why is the market so green after a rate increase? So this is all a game of expectations and right here at first it went down - which i thought was a little bit weird the severity of it to go from what 431 down to 425, because they've been telling us like talk about being priced in everyone and Their grandmother knew we were going to get a quarter of a price increase like that. That was clearly pricing because they've been talking about it and then even like to the most extreme nature, jerome powell, in front of the senate and the house, he was saying: hey uh.

This is what i'm backing and he's the chairman, and that was like two weeks ago so for months now, you could argue that a quarter of a percent was already priced in, so that first move was surprising and that's why it was a little bit more related To okay, like the seven hikes and that type of stuff and people concerned about a policy error and then all of a sudden switched around when jerome powell actually started talking at 2 30 because, like he, just very much, was speaking as like. Yes, we have this under control uh. He was definitely calming down a lot of nerves and basically saying this is not going to get out of hand. Now.

Obviously, time will tell, if he's being like accurate on this, if his statements are accurate, but that's the difference from two to 230 and then 330 to now. It was very much the interpretation of the data points of like okay they're, going to hit us with a lot of inter or like hikes, and then when he started talking, he explained what was going on and he just as you can see very much calmed. The overall market - and this morning i was all like hey - you, don't see it, but we might be seeing a double a double gap bill and you know how i get about gap bills. Well now it's not a gap fill, but just in terms of the chart.

We're about to hit a triple gap bill here. I was thinking the odds of a double gap, follower just crazy, crazy, low possible yeah watch the morning stream. I was calling it out, but then to think in a day that we're going to hit the first one hit the second one and then, by the end of the day, refill that first one a triple gap fill folks. I'm telling you this is something that not even gap daddy ever saw coming.

I like, i thought, the odds it was possible, just not likely of a double gap bill and technically this triple gap, fill's, not a real thing, but man. Oh man, look at that chart the spy a couple cents, the triple gap fill gap, daddy, that's the type of stuff. This is this is why you got ta be here. This is why you got ta, be here and watch the market, because this is something you just wouldn't believe.

If it wasn't recorded cap daddy trading llc over a year and got my diamond ducky shout out seraphim shout out shout out shout out. I appreciate everything you do: where are we at? We have about 10 minutes, so we can watch uh wha. What else are these equities doing? Right now? You have amc recaptured 15. It's up! 4.4 percent.

You have uh bitcoin, looking good, you have gme even kind of doing its thing. Obviously the spy is going up, i'm assuming tesla's everything's, just everything went down and then at 2 30 we're just seeing everything bounce. Basically there's a lot of similar. Looking charts right now.

Lot of similar looking charts do we need a ryan cohen style by to set amc upwards uh. If some big player came in and said hey, this is undervalued that could help quite a bit depending on who it is uh. I don't know, though, if, like amc is selling off equity like that they would have to do it from stock that they already have and not new stock, and i don't know if there's really that most of the outstanding shares are free float. So it's not like.

There's that much stock hoarded within the company that could be sold uh off to a new institution. So then it would be what the leftover, whatever that leftover x percent, is from current institutions. So it'd be more of like um like swapping hands type of a deal and not really coming from like owners within the company. Oh seven months feels like i've been here long.

It took me a while to figure out how to become a member. So here's that loved every minute shout out steam, punk ferret. I appreciate you yeah and you've definitely been here for several months. So this is.

This is selling you short vessel ripping this is such a crazy, crazy day, crazy, crazy day. Would you wear ryan cohen, covered bad bath and beyond bathing suit yeah? Why not sounds like a strong fashion decision? Oh wait, 12 months. Why did i say 7 12 sounds about a bit more right, a bit more right, thoughts on gme earnings tomorrow, i'm just hoping for like a bombshell announcement. I hope they're, like hey the nft marketplace, going live like something like that um, but we'll have to pay attention.

I won't be streaming it. Unfortunately, i don't have the the freedom uh tomorrow evening to stream it, but i'll definitely happily recap it for all of you. The next day, if you're curious about it, i'm just i'm chomping at the bit to know like what is or isn't going on with this nft marketplace. The data point suggests a strong fashion statement.

What else do we have? What else do we have lawless? You think a market crash is incoming. It's a bit bearish, see, i told you he sold his gme. What are you talking about? You can see. I have it on public.

Just because i'm not a live streaming and earnings announcement doesn't mean. I don't have stock. I own a lot of stock that i don't stream those earnings, announcements, mucho mucho stocked, that i don't stream it what's a gme. Am i doing anything for st patty's day, uh working working work and working? I have to keep all of you apes.

Happy no rest for the wicked, oh, but that does remind me i am scouting out new locations for basically where i should live next in the studio and all that uh. So because of that and my travel arrangements, i won't be here next friday. I'm not talking this friday, i'm talking next friday, i'm just calling that out uh just so you know i won't be working that day. I need to travel and find in a find an apartment, find a studio.

Work work, work, work, damn i never streamed any of my soccer things that must have no stock. You need to wear green tomorrow. I could wear green tomorrow for st patrick's day. I think my green ape shirt, though also has like a santa claus hat on.

It am i coming to miami. I am visiting miami uh, not this weekend, but next weekend to kind of scout. The area out see if i can find an apartment or a house, and then i also need to visit some like studios. I want to um get my studio, not in my place like i want to set up like an official studio and do some like interviews and that type of stuff and have like more of a cool studio space.

But i don't know if it'll i'm visiting miami. I don't know if that is going to be where i officially land upon, but i just want to check the area out. I have some other places to go so hey. If you are a miami real estate person, you should 100 be reaching out to me.

Maddie boy hood puts hood actually had a surprisingly good day, weren't they up like 12 or something hood up 16 trading at 1280. That's where i got mixed up um. I don't know i'm seeing a lot of green just in the overall market right now. So i'm a little bit iffy about that um! It's just i! I want to see how things we're seeing this exuberance today and honestly.

I i mean there's not much time left, but in the last five minutes of the day i kind of want to see how things are gon na shake out tomorrow and to see. If people are this confident about things. When we get going tomorrow, seattle's freaking i've been to seattle. I, like seattle, i've been to denver, i like denver.

I mean this miami's interesting and i guess i don't know for whatever reason, to share all these thoughts with you folks, miami's cool. I think it's a very, very hot area, i think it's a fun area and because it's a fun area, uh behind new york and la a lot of people cycle through miami - and i want to i'm i'm attempting to take like this whole moon gang concept to The next level, and now, fortunately, that we're getting out of this rona era - i just don't know if um interviews that are done through zoom, will be like have the same impact like uh right now. I think there's gon na be a desire for, like i really love interviewing people. In fact, i have an interview dropping on saturday with ben mesrick.

You guys are going to love it it once again it will come out saturday, you're gon na love it, but this concept of these in-person interviews and like that's, why i kind of want to get a studio. So i can set up a cool interview space and invite people in and i'm not going to go back to new york. It's too cold, i'm not going to move out to la for a myriad of reasons, and that to me tells me that the third city, that a lot of people cycle through that you might be interested in me interviewing them - is miami. So it's a bit more of like a business oriented play which is kind of interesting, because i feel like a lot of the times when you move to an area you're like you particularly want that area and i think i'd have fun in miami uh.

But i'm much more of um, i don't know, i think those like types of like party crazy days, maybe are behind me. I don't know i guess we'll see and who knows, even if i end up in miami but i'll be checking it out for sure denver gets all the four seasons and denver is beautiful. It's just on a relative basis. I think there's more people for interviews who cycle through miami than they do for denver, learn spanish yeah i'll have to start watching dora the explorer dora the explorer before this one concludes.

I just want you to know that um. If you want more of a full breakdown of what the fed did or didn't say, true trading group is giving you a free stream just go to their youtube tonight. In fact, here i'll drop a link to it, but also, if you want to sign up for true trading group, hang on. Let me get this for you.

Where is the link? I always lose it. I always lose it here, i'll, throw it in chat right. There uh, so i just threw this in chat, so they are going to be streaming at 4, 30 in 30 minutes and they're doing a full breakdown of what happened with the fed today. So if you want more people's opinion than just my own, you can watch that it's absolutely free.

It's a youtube stream in literally 30 minutes and then, if you want to try out ttg like their official education platform, their data platform and their live chat room. It's pinned to the top of chat. It's a three dollar a week trial. What about joe roganstown, austin uh, that's up and coming for sure.

I thought about austin, but i still feel like. Maybe miami is still bigger in terms of just like my focus is on. Like okay, where is the place that i could still do my normal streams, but then, on top of that, have an easier way to do these, like more serious in-person interviews, crypto interviews will be big in miami. The crypto space is very, very popular in miami, so i mean that's at least my reasoning for wanting to check it out.

It's um and we'll see how it goes, we'll see how it goes come to texas, no state tax. Actually, that's another advantage of florida. No state income tax, the chat has voted. We want you in texas how seattle seattle's awesome.

I had a blast in seattle. The one uh a thing about seattle, though, is it's like the time zone and like so, i feel bad for all of you. West coast traders, like that's a brutal time zone, everyone knows florida's the worst place. You'll slowly turn into a trash person, move to or no state too vlad is russian vlad vlad putin hood puts don't care if we go to zero.

It's a moral move. Oh man, ding andy ding, ding ding. That is it. The casino is closed.

That's it! What a wild wild wild day in the wild west of the digital market space. Here's the dealio i'll, be posting some vods this evening. Maybe some tick tock, something like that and then i'll be streaming once again full day tomorrow for st patrick's day, maybe we'll see some green in the market too. Overall, i hope you had a good day.

I hope you had an awesome day. I hope you made a lot of money. Unfortunately, tesla handed my ass to me, but hey that's why you live to fight another day, uh, so we'll see how this all ends up. Panning out, it's gon na be pure craziness, pure pure craziness.

But overall i appreciate any of you who even spent a second of your day with me seriously from my bottom of my heart. You guys are the absolute best i'll catch you in the vods tonight, i'll catch you in the stream tomorrow and if you want don't forget to check out ttg uh. Their stream starts in under 30 minutes overall for me and chair peace out best of luck and have a b-e-a-youtube-full day. You.