I Don't know if you were paying attention to the market today, but it was a bloodbath and I think it's about to get worse. That's exactly what I want to talk about in this video because we got some very bearish price action in the stock market and the economy. But I think it's gonna get worse because of some craziness that is going down in the government as we speak. and also just to wrap it all up I Want to give you maybe a little bit of an idea of where I personally believe the perfect trade of the day is.

If you like these type of daily economic stock market political updates, don't forget to subscribe. Don't forget to smash the like button. With that being said, let's rock Foreign stock market Bell Win Dingy ding ding ding today Thursday September 21st A lot of people were in a lot of pain, but if you're in the Bear Camp yoloing against the market, you're probably running around cheering, swimming in a gold bath like Scrooge McDuck But if you're in the bull camp like I said, a little bit of Carnage Dow tumbles more than 300 points to notch third day of losses amid fears of higher rates government shutdown and I will be covering all that in this exact video. But just to give you I guess a picture of this scene of the crime.

we have the Spy right here. Ended up dropping 1.6 after a pretty brutal drop yesterday and then a few look at the queues. the NASDAQ more of the tech heavy sector down 1.8 so obviously a bit of a bloodbath across the board. And for those of you who are more visual Learners rather than auditory Learners Well, I do have a picture for you.

This is the heat map of the S P 500 and unless you're looking at the health care sector The only green sector. Everything else is blood red. At this point you might be thinking to yourself what's going on hey, you might have a normal life where you talk to people outside enjoying some of that vitamin D from the thing that they call the Sun but I spend most of my day scrolling the interwebs and I'm more than happy to keep you updated with some of the minutia of the day-to-day movements, not only in the government, but obviously the economy and the stock market. The reason things are just so bad right now, so bearish right now is because of a recent Federal Reserve decision and also on top of that a fancy schmancy update called the Summary of Economic Projections the SCP and really just the tonality of the Chairman of the FED Jerome Powell So let me explain everything that's going on.

The big development yesterday was exactly this: Bed declines to hike, but points to rate staying higher for longer. So coming into Yesterday the Federal Funds rate was 5.25 That's an important thing to pay attention to because it has the trickle-down effect of impacting what's going on with student loan repayments, credit cards, mortgages, really anything related to interest and interest bearing assets. So important to pay attention to it. But anyway, we came in at 5.25 and we left today at 5.25 But there were other things in the SCP and that's right here.

The Summary of Economic Projections: This one little number that I have highlighted 5.1 percent. That is what's sending the market in a tizzy. One little small number is causing billions of dollars of pain right now. I'm laughing because if you don't laugh I Guess we would just be crying.

So in the June projection, they thought that the FED fund rate would come back down to 4.6 Really, that's the range between 4.5 and 4.75 It's always just a spread of 0.25 Just so that's why it's coming in at 4.6 But anyway, in June they thought it would be coming down. We've been hiking it up to fight inflation. Obvious easily, they're trying to lower demand, and really, they're trying to spike unemployment. But this is really just a big battle against inflation.

And obviously there's some casualties such as the two largest bank blow-ups, two of the top three largest bank blobs that we've ever seen. Well, in the most recent SCP Summary of Economic Projections: now it's 5.1 So when you hear that the FED fund rate is going to be higher for longer, that's exactly what they're talking about. This number right here: 5.1 which is really the range of 5 to 5.25 And then to add insult to injury, we got a bunch of these little blue dots that to a lot of people don't mean anything but to Wall Street They can mean everything And these are all individual votes of voting Fomc members of where they think the FED fund rate is going to be at the end of whatever respective year. As you can see, by the end of this year, a lot of them.

A majority of them think that we're going to get an additional rate hike. So once again, this is what the markets are reacting to: the Fed fund rate being higher for longer which has the net effect of lowering demand and can even Spike unemployment. Obviously, the bull Camp within Wall Street Didn't fully expect this, but Jerome Powell in his speech after the Fomc decision basically said hey, we're gonna be taking in the incoming data, but for right now we're going to be holding the line pretty hardcore at being notable. Hawks Looking forward to the next Fomc meeting where they decide what they're doing with the FED fund rate.

This is going down on November 1st of 2023 As of now, they think there's a 74 chance and when I say they I say the market looking at the yield slash bond market 74 chance of coasting flat, staying where we are. but there's also a 26 chance that we are getting another rate hike. Now this is uh I Just want to put a caveat here of an Asterix a star just to let you know that between now the time that I'm filming this and the actual decision, we have a whole host of reports more inflation reports such as the CPI report, the PC CE report. Then we get other important reports such as retail sales, unemployment report.

My point is being that from now until then, there's a ton of reports that are going to have a massive impact on what the Federal Reserve decides to do or to not do so even though these numbers are here. I Wouldn't say that their numbers posted with high confidence, but do you know what I have high confidence about that? The average Joe like you like me, is feeling some serious pain How U.S households got turned upside down by higher interest rates. Consumers are now only beginning to feel the full effects of the Feds higher for longer policies. This is actually a really good write-up But the important thing I would say this shock factor is right at the start.

Share of annual income needed to cover housing costs is now over 40 percent. It's 43.2 percent. This is actually a very sad number. It's sad because of how high it is.

If you rewind a couple decades. this is literally increased 100. Previously, in the 70s, 80s, 90s, this was in the realm of 18 20. We've now doubled to over 40 percent.

Which means a lot of people are putting their paycheck into a necessity such as housing. And this just shows how untenable the current inflation situation really is. But don't you worry, the people in power in this country have a completely under control. Here's a recent clip from the Chairman of the FED Jerome Powell Surveys are showing dissatisfaction and I think a lot of that is just people hate inflation, hate it.

and uh, that that causes people to say the economy is terrible, but at the same time they're spending money. Their behavior is is not exactly what you would expect from the surveys. You heard it here first, turning every economic book upside down inside out. People don't like inflation.

obviously. I'm saying that a little bit tongue-in-cheek because obviously people don't like inflation. and or I I suppose maybe this is a good thing to solve an issue, you first have to identify the problem. So maybe it's better than him sitting here saying hey, people love inflation.

But seriously, is this the point we're at? That one of the most powerful men in the world is now just saying yeah, people don't like inflation. Unfortunately, to make matters even worse, our elected officials are even more of a clown show. House Recesses after Defense Bill Government Funding Plan implode This is actually a little piece of breaking news that came out right before I started filming this house. Republican Leaders on Thursday sent the chamber into recess, likely dashing hopes of passing a bill to fund the government in the coming days.

As of now, as of the point that I'm filming this, the government is going to be shut down at the end of September The stinging defeat came after a procedural vote on a defense funding bill failed Thursday Morning Investors are growing concerned that a government shutdown would cut into Fourth Quarter GDP and undermine confidence in the nation's ability to keep its own government open. Hey, I would say they are successfully undermining their own confidence because I don't have much confidence in them a little bit more on this situation. McCarthy Ambushed as Republican hordliners change course on spending Plan House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ambushed Thursday when a pair of ultra conservatives whose votes he was relying on stymied his latest plan to avert a U.S Government shutdown with just nine days to go before a funding lapse. This is why I like to say hey, the earlier you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up.

If you fall behind right at the end, you just don't have much time to catch up if you think about it. I Feel like that's actually a good piece of advice Republicans MTG wants a reliable McCarthy Ally and Eli Crane voted against bringing up the defense spending Bill Green said she opposed the inclusion of a 300 million dollars in Ukraine Aid a move that caught the speaker by surprise. He said two people flipped so I got to figure out how to fix that McCarthy told reporters after the vote which was his third attempt to bring the typically popular defense Bill to the floor. That wasn't the impression they had given us.

McCarthy is trying to drum up support among Republicans for a 31 day stop Gap to prevent October 1st shutdown as well as a long-term spending bills. He continues to tweak them to address conservative demands and said early Thursday he'd achieve a breakthrough on the defense bill. This is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down I Suppose they're taking a page out of the Joker's book to help you understand the actual gravity of this situation and really the circus that is this clown show of our government and their spending and our debt. I Found this interesting tweet: It has been 60 hours since U.S Debt crossed 33 trillion and it is already up.

Another 50 billion. That's almost a billion an hour. That means we have added 833 million in debt per hour since. U.S Debt crossed 33 trillion.

If the total US debt were divided by every household in the country, each household would get 252 000. we are officially paying more than 2 billion per day in interest expense 2 billion per day. Just on the intro is that's ridiculous. All while the debt ceiling leaves the debt limit uncapped until January 2025.

Something needs to change. and I think what's going to change is just serious cracks in the system. Now for those of you who are a bit more interested of maybe how you could make money off of this in the short term in the market I First, need you to know that to close out the week Friday September 22nd We do have one more major macro economic report that comes at 9 45 80 15 minutes into the trading day, we are going to get the PMI report. Obviously expect a little bit of volatility, not only because of the general sense that we're selling off breaking down, but this report.

Obviously people are going to be paying attention to it I Want you to know that I Do do a free newsletter, a breakdown of the previous week, a look ahead to the next week. You can see that right here: the major macroeconomic events for each week, all the earnings that I think are going to be interested in, and the seasonality at least historically for the upcoming week. Every individual day of how things have played out, and this is a perfect time to let you know that Friday September 22nd I Hope you're watching this video in time. This is historically a bearish day.

On top of that, we do some option strategy stuff and I do some chart review. This comes out every weekend. It's free Macross.locals.com I'll make sure it's in the description of the video. but I do want you to know all about this because honestly, these option plays and the seasonality for the week has been pretty spot on.

Speaking of which, I just want to kind of call this out of what's going on here. This is a look at the S P 500 on the daily chart. Obviously if you see here in the newsletter I was letting everyone know how hey, I think if we break and close below this trend line, there could be more pain to come and that's exactly what's playing out. We broke down on Tuesday the 19th.

It saved itself and then when Pal started speaking on Wednesday we broke, We sold, We sold. We obviously closed below it and that led to a pretty bad brutal day in all reality. I Didn't think it was going to get this bad, but we got below and closed below this. major support the low from Friday August 18th which is telling me that I think we might keep going.

So obviously we saved ourselves a little bit here. This was a key support level from a while ago I'm talking about all the way back on Monday June 26th. Now this doesn't hold if there's not a very, very quick reversion from here. I'd actually be looking even lower closer to 425.

so these are the major downside levels I'm now paying attention to. but I'll make sure to update you of what I see coming next. and then if you're looking at the NASDAQ similar situation, we couldn't hold the breakout successfully broke down next level I'm watching. there's a pretty evident one once again, the low from Friday August the 18th, which is clocking in just below 355.

those are my personal levels of interest. and obviously with a brutal day today, the Spy closing at 4 31 and some change, we have the queues closing below 358. I Just want you to remember those numbers below 432 below 358 because today's two zero DTE options called. we're both spot on.

This one was from the queues needed it below 364. obviously it was very below that and then for the Spy needed to blow 437. So thus far on the week, the zero DTE strategy is officially five for five. Last week it was six for eight 75 accuracy.

This week we're batting a thousand. currently going five for five. Hopefully we could close out the week on a pretty strong note. so make sure you're paying attention to the stream if you're interested in that type of thing.

I will be streaming I Do it every single Monday to Friday Nine to Eleven if you want to see a bit more of the live show, live trading, and kind of live commentary on this situation. But hey, if you just like these updates, don't forget to like. Don't forget to subscribe I Appreciate your time I Hope you enjoyed it and I'll catch you in the next one. Have a beautiful day.