Foreign, at least pain in the atmosphere. The sun will go about his business. Another debt so fetishize. Where can we go please? This is brother.

Good morning campers. today is Tuesday August Welcome back to the back course show where your Mac Coors and I'm the show foreign. Hope you haven't looked at the market this morning. Uh, if for those of you who are maybe just waking up and checking out the markets tuning into the show, Moody's has done it again.

Moody's has decided to downgrade some mid-sized Banks and that is causing a little Panic A bit of concern in the old stock market is going down down down now. Will it last? I Don't know your crystal ball is as good as mine. Yours is probably even better. Maybe there's a big recovery today.

Or maybe the high we saw last week is the high for this particular run and we're due for a realistic pullback. Could go either way and in all reality, I Don't care which way it goes and you shouldn't either if you're an active Trader A sling Trader A day trader? you're just playing the trend on the time frame you're dealing with. If you're a day trader, have that if you're a swing. Trader Have at it.

and if you're an investor, you wait to buy your favorite favorite Investments when they're cheap on discount. So no matter what it is, it's not really any particular reason to feel good, bad, or indifferent if you had puts if you swung putts overnight. Congratulations to you you made a killing this morning. or you will in about 25 minutes if you swung calls overnight.

I I Feel for you? Uh, I Definitely. Uh, you're gonna definitely be in my thoughts and prayers. So uh I Definitely definitely feel for you on that one, Folks Folks folks, folks, let's see what we could do today. So we're going to talk about Moody's we're going to talk about China We're going to talk about Italy We're going to talk about earnings.

A Lot of earnings. In fact, then we're going to talk about inflation that's coming out Thursday and Friday Then we're going to talk about seasonality. Then maybe intertwined in some of these. I will be sharing some updates and stories of what's going on with Piper Honestly, she was being a really good girl last night the past two nights.

three nights, she's been a terror. Basically, she wakes up from her nap at two in the morning and says, let's rage everyone else is asleep so she starts clogging me in the face. That's how the first two nights went with her. Last night.

she just kind of did her own thing. I think she um I was trying to teach her some stuff last night I was teaching her how to properly reverse your a steak. so she was being um I don't know she was really paying attention to that but I think she was reviewing her notes throughout the night. Uh, some of my commands to her didn't make much spent sense.

so I'm starting to think that maybe she speaks. Spanish So I've been, you know, just pulling on my 10th grade high school level. Spanish So I'm trying to make her a little bit more of a bilingual cat. So I I think she just had a lot to review last night between the cooking lessons and the Spanish lessons.

so she's just been. She's been having one this morning and then obviously she's really been a fan. I don't even know where it is, but she found this like colorful toy that has like feathers on it like green and blue feathers and she goes Hog Wild with that thing. So I think she's just been.

she's been all over the place so I don't know if she's gonna make a an appearance on today's show. I don't really know where she's at. she does her own thing, you know she's just she's doing her own cat things. but positive night with her last night.

You know what bold take I Don't know if I've spoken with this about this with all of you. Um, do you guys remember that show? Psych It was like just a cable show about a decade ago. I Don't know the actor's name I don't know either the actor's name. It's a guy who is like kind of a fraudulent psychic and he's really just really observant and he helps.

It's a comedy, he just helps the. Santa Barbara Police Department Simon Solving crime. Um yeah, it's in the same area as Monk like. that's when it came out anyway.

Psych: For all those of you who don't know, it stands the test of time. it's currently playing on. Amazon Prime No I'm not sponsored by Amazon Prime I should be Amazon Prime If you're watching right now, reach out to me. I will shill all of my favorite shows that your service has.

but anyway Psych is on Amazon Prime and it 100 stands the test of time now. At first I was a little worried because Piper was coming into the situation and we were already on season two and I thought uh oh Piper's gonna like kind of lose some of the backstory, not really understand what's going on so we gave her a little bit of a rundown and honestly after that she agrees too. Psych really does stand the time. So yeah, there was a little bit of a lag effect with her because she didn't understand some of that dynamics of all the characters, but when we fully explained it took about five ten minutes.

she even agrees. Psych: This is obviously her watch through because she's about three months old, but she's really enjoying it. Um, so just just wanted everyone to know about that. And on that note, we should talk about the old stock market.

Top left of your screen is the old S P 500. commonly considered to be a great representation of the overall stock market. and yesterday we kind of went bottom left, top right. It was a little bit more whips eye, but we had a nice push at the end of the day despite pushing to 451.

and now we're trading at 447, a very steep steep decline. You can kind of see where things went a little bit awry. We started drifting down late last evening and then I always like to see what's going on in the London session. Open about from two to five, we were just going sideways.

We popped up and then the final hour it puked. And then that puke in the final hour of the London session led to a more dramatic sell-off that we're currently seeing in the Futures Market. We were battling it out at the Kiki level 4500 flat key, technical level, key, psychological level. Definitely a major watch for me today and all this happened.

The Spy vomiting The Q's vomiting. It all happened because of banks, so you could look at XLF which is tracking the financial sector currently down 1 1.3 percent. My apologies, you can't see this right now. down 1.3 XLF getting hit, dragging the spy with it and then even if you look at some of the Regionals kre, this is an ETF Tracking not all the financial sector specifically Regional Banks so the smaller guys.

So it's basically excluding JPMorgan Bank of America City Wells Fargo because those ones are actually holding up a bit better. It's the smaller size banks that are getting their asses handed to them this morning and this all happened because of Moody's and I'm I guess stealing this joke, but it they are being a bit Moody So I kind of like that joke so we're gonna just run with it this morning. sock Futures Fall with bank shares Under Pressure Remember no pressure, no diamonds, no diamonds, no pressure Moody's Cuts ratings of 10 U.S Banks and puts some big names on downgrade watch Uh, this is kind of though like If This Were A well-run syndicated cable show. it would be like I would read that it would go and then there would be the laugh track in the background.

Like because like you know, situational comedy and the situation is that a lot of people in their investing accounts are losing thousands and thousands of dollars. hahaha Situational comedy. You know how it goes. Moody's Cuts U.S Banks on mounting funding costs and office exposure Moody's investor service lowered credit ratings for 10 small and mid-sized U.S banks and said it may downgrade downgrade excuse me major lenders as part of the sweeping look at mounting pressures on the industry.

One thing that I want to touch on here is specifically Cre corporate real estate, but just keep that in your mind for a second. Higher funding costs, Potential Regulatory Capital weakness and Rising risk tied to commercial real estate loans amid weakening demand for office space are among strains prompting the review. Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of U.S Banks though not all banks equally and Moody's adopted a negative outlook for 11 lenders. so some actually got downgraded and then other ones are kind of on Deck to get downgraded and the ones on deck to get downgraded are pretty scary PNC Capital Ones citizens like these are all well-known Banks And the fact that they might get downgraded could be no bueno.

Rising Funding costs and declining income metrics will Road Profitability: the first buffer against losses Asset Risk is rising in particular for small and mid-sized banks with large Cre exposure, corporate real estate exposure. We've been talking about this for about one to two months now of how everyone's kind of starting to Ring the Alarm the warning sign on corporate real estate. the Situation's not good I mean recently, both Bloomberg and Reuters have been posting articles of how everyone's trying to get out of corporate real estate. All these lenders.

They're like uh oh, in fact, year over year, the defaults on corporate real estate is now at five percent, which is a two decade. High Folks, that's not just a a sentence that I'm saying as you guys are tuning in to the best show in the entire world. Think about what that means year over Year corporate real estate defaults is now at five percent, that is a two decade high. Do you know how bad that is? Do you know how opposite of good that is? Do you know how much of a opposite of a happy camper? That's a sad camper statement And you guys are here acting like it's a neutral camper statement.

There's happy camper statements. There's neutral camper statements. Camper statements I don't even know what words we're trying to say at this point. Now there's sad camper statements that was a sad camper that unless you have puts that should put a frown on your face.

But anyway, Moody's coming out with this small to me medium-sized Banks getting downgraded larger ones but not the top dog ones, but larger ones PNC Capital One They're on the watch list and right now if you're looking at banks that might have more of an issue, look at the ones that have done a lot of corporate real estate loaning. If you're looking for particular weakness, if you are a shorting Sam A Negative Nancy uh, a betting against the market Benson whatever the fuck your name is. If you're trying to go negative, look for the ones the way I would play it and I'm not playing it. Look for the ones that are particularly in a bad situation, particularly in a pickle when it comes to corporate real estate and obviously all that is going to be in their financial filing.

so that's where you're looking. So please, please please check that out. A little bit of good news: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggests interest rate hikes are at an end, so this came out just past 10 a.m and look at what happened just past 10. AM We started to pop a little bit.

granted, not the biggest pop, because in fact, most of the market kind of assumed we were done anyway. While I have you here, we might as well look at the odds of the next rate about an 85 percent chance that we do nothing in the September meaning, but once again, that's about six weeks away. five weeks away, so it doesn't really matter. But that's why we didn't get the biggest pop.

We got a little pop, but it's kind of already the estimated case. But anyway, one of the voting Fomc men versus kind of hinting in the fact that maybe at least a pause, maybe a skip, but at least at least a little bit of a breather. A little bit of a dovish breather coming to us in September But obviously there's a lot that's going to happen between now and then that's going to influence this decision, such as the CPI report, the PPI report, the next Pce report, the next unemployment report. We have a lot of reports from now all the way up to December September meeting, so we'll just put a pin in it at for the moment and come back to it globally.

There's also a little bit of shakiness in the situation. China's trade plunges more than forecasts in blow to recovery China's trade Plunge in July as slowing Global demand clouded the outlook for exports while domestic pressures weighed on Imports in a hit to the economic recovery. So in terms of the backdrop, like what's kind of cooking in the background in the U.S we're seeing concerns about with banks that's been going on for months now. specifically in the world of corporate real estate China Itself, the overall economy isn't recovering and holding up as much as it can, so that's something to consider.

And then the newest Global event everyone should probably be paying attention to is what's going on in Japan And they've usually been Ultra dovish with their monetary policy and now we're kind of staking a step down from that. I'm not going to call them hawkish, but they're definitely taking a step down. and that's the whole Boj, the bank of Japan that's their Central Bank and the decisions that they're doing. But anyway, that's call causing a little bit of unease as well.

So China Economy not as strong Japan Doing some wild things with their Central Bank and here in the U.S concerns with our small to medium-sized Banks Specifically in the world of corporate real estate, so on a global scale, those are three pretty major things to consider Now, Obviously, if one blows up and gets really really bad, that could be a clear negative impact on the global economy. But for right now, we don't know if it's necessarily going to Trend that way. So if anything, I wouldn't say oh, be bullish or be bearish I would say that's the news to pay attention to the news to track and hopefully make more informed decisions. But anyway, let's dive into the whole China thing.

Overseas shipments dropped 14.5 in dollar terms last month from a year earlier. the worst decline since February of 2020, while Imports contracted 12.4 percent. the Customs Administration said on Tuesday that left a trade surplus of 80.6 billion for the month. The export in important figures were worse than economists had expected.

The deepened slump in Imports is a reflection of weak domestic demand. Once again, we're getting some not so happy camper reports out of China the drop was the worst since January the overall consumption and investment growth probably both stayed quite weak in China. So update coming out of China And even though this isn't the most influential thing I still do have other foreign News Italian Bank shares slide after government Surprises with windfall tax Italian Deputy PM Mateo Salvini that's a sick name and announce on Monday a 40 levy on banks extra excess profits drive from higher into interest rates, the one-off tax will be equal to about 19 percent of Banks net profits for the year We see this tax as a sustainability negative for banks given both the impact on Capital and profit as well as the cost for Equity of Bank shares. So not for the same reason.

but the end effect is the same of we're seeing banks in Italy They're not as happy as they should be right now. They're definitely sad campers. So China's overall economy sad camper Japan's monetary policy sad camper Italy's Banks sad campers U.S Small and medium-sized Banks also side campers So those are all sad campers. Happy campers are people who degenerately swung puts overnight.

But we'll see what kind of campers we are at the end of the day now. even though that's all the macroeconomic stuff, we're still in earnings season. And as you can see, last night we had palantir we had Lucid This morning we had Ups data dog. um, after the market closes today we have Rivian upstart Twilio AMC actually already released the report this this morning, but their call is going to be tonight after or the before the Market opens tomorrow.

we have low box and Sony after the market closes we have Disney plug when and then next week we still have a couple more to consider, but when this week concludes, over 80 to 90 percent of all S P 500 companies will have reported. so we're definitely starting to I Don't know, just calm down getting we're closer to the end now than we are the start, but there's still reports next week. Excuse me, Palantir reports 13 Revenue Growth issues guidance that tops estimates now I Find Palantir's reaction be interesting because they even talked about a share buyback and at first things went negative. Then they went positive which made sense.

and in pre-market it's not really holding it right now. So Palantir is currently down about 50 cents 2.7 I'm curious how this one's gonna react I Thought that the initial reaction was kind of a little illogical. Definitely a little illogical. The recovery made sense.

The numbers were I mean I Think good. Um, and now we're just seeing a slow drift down so it's definitely watching that one throughout the day. Lucid Uh, popular EV Play Misses Revenue Expectations after EV Deliveries disappoint. This has kind of been the story of Lucid.

Most of their delivery reports have been a little bit negative, a little bit bearish. so uh, I I Honestly, I'm not that surprised by it, but once again, not much movement. It's only down five cents, so not much going on there. UPS Cuts margin and AD and revenue forecast as weak demand, new labor contract way.

So with Ups and Teamsters and the workers, they're trying to figure out the union. and right now it isn't a situation where technically we don't have to worry about it, but it's kind of like on the Edge. But regardless of that, this concept of weak revenue forecast because of weak demand kind of echoing the words of what we're seeing in China Well, that's why it's down five bucks this morning 2.5 Eli Lilly Raises for your guidance as drug pipeline drives second quarter profit up 85 I'm not the biggest pharmaceutical Trader Bio Tech Trader I Try to avoid them at all costs, but hey, there actually is some positive reports there so just wanted you guys to know about it. Restaurant brand sales rise fueled by Burger King and Tim Hortons So restaurants looking good as well.

So some good things, some bad things, and a fair question for all of you right now in your mind is should you be bullish? Should you be bearish? and I'm not saying this is the end-all be-all but with good odds I Think we should do the opposite of this gentleman Jim Cramer sees more positives and negatives for the market ahead citing economic growth with little inflation if you had calls I am sorry to report that you are screwed I am very very sorry I Don't want you to take this personally, but if you were wondering this morning before the Market opens up, if you're like ah, should, I hold these. Is there a chance of things coming back for me? I'm sorry to present you the dagger in the heart. Remember, don't shoot the messenger I'm not the person who said this I'm the person to let you know who did say it and the fact that Jim Cramer seems more positive than negatives for the market ahead. Oh, we're screwed.

Man, it's it's gum. Feels like it's going to go down. Feels like it's going to go down because of old Jimbo here. But you know what? Sometimes you get what you need.

Sometimes things are are getting really good in our economy even as we don't seem to realize it. And that's how you get a daily today with the Dow volt of 408 points has to be game point nine percent. and then Aztec Advance 0.61 Yep, we're so busy being negative surprise probably we had Friday to finish a really sorry week that we just can't see the positives that are around us. which is why reality is like this one takes you by surprise.

So maybe it's time tonight for a little refresher course on what we actually want to see from the economy. So first, if you are a bull, there is a historic, unassailable goal for higher stock prices. We want growth with little inflation. That's my the ideal kind of economy for the stock market to thrive.

And guess what? Well, we're there. Let's think of what happened. Friday First, we got this terrific employment report. We created 187 000 jobs which is decent, but it's not explosive.

We didn't want to explode this supposedly because unemployment's already 3.5 now. We have become so conditioned to believe that low honors for the market that we actually went down on Friday off of an ideal set of numbers that's just crazy town people, crazy town, crazy town, and Goldilocks more modest job growth with much less, we're going today. we're going to Crazy Town don't miss a second of Mad Money I Really wanted to play it for that just so we could make it a saying within the show we're going to Crazy Town Load up campers, We're going to Crazy Town Anyway, today at noon we're getting the Eia short-term energy Outlook So look for oil to do some wild stuff midday today and then once again tomorrow at 10 30 we're going to get the crude oil inventories. Then the real fun fun Crazy Town party gets started on Thursday and Friday an hour before the Market opens 8 30 a.m We are getting the CPI report on Thursday and then the PPI report on Friday.

So pay attention to that. With respect to today, it favors the Bears. The Bulls have won this day 52 of the time. Slightly better than flipping a coin, but when the Bears win, they win with a little bit more strength, a little bit more.

Uh, je ne sais quoi if you will. I Actually don't know what that means I Just like to say it. But anyway, as you can see from the equity curve here, it started in the negatives, trended down, try to recover, trending down. Once again, seasonality does favor the Bears today.

this is on data over the past 25 years, two and a half decades. Is this a guarantee? No, seasonalities never guarantee, but it just gives you a better idea of that Tailwinds are being supported by or the headwinds you're running into. and based on the update from Moody's this morning, the seasonality of the day and also what we're kind of seeing on The Daily Structure: I would say that the bull Camp is running into headwinds. That's not a guarantee of if today's red or green, but mine mindset for today is looking for bearish opportunities.

Looking to bet against either the S P 500 or the NASDAQ in the Futures Market? That's my plan for the day, but as always I'm gonna wait for those first 10 15 20 minutes to play out just to see how people are really positioning themselves because we've seen crazy v-shaped recoveries. Five things to know before the stock Market Bell goes Ding ding ding ding today Tuesday August 8th at least according to mainstream Media Earnings Delight Some of them hit, some of them, didn't Berkshire's big day so Berkshire hitted an all-time high. and they are sitting on billions and billions in cash. And the fact that they're not buying up a lot right now tells me that from a fundamental standpoint, they're looking for prices to come down and they're probably a little elevated at current valuations.

The Tesla CFO is out just if you're a hardcore Tesla Watcher Obviously Kirkhorn out. Um, so we covered that a bit yesterday and feel free to watch it. Bank Concerns Moody's back to back Downs The USA's credit worthiness from AAA to double A Plus and that was last week this week. It's all about how now they think banks are going to be under a little bit of pressure.

mainly the ones who are heavy into the world of cre, uh, corporate real estate zooming in. So even Zoom now it's kind of funny. Um, Zoom a company that literally their software is meant for people to work remotely. They exploded in popularity usage and the stock prices during The Rona period Well Now even Zoom is telling all their employees to come back to the office.

and I I get it and everything I Just I Don't know. it's a little funny on just like the top level, top level. but anyway, in terms of the market, uh, like I alluded to before yesterday, Monday August the 7th was an inside day when I say an inside day I literally mean the high and the low are within the high and the low of the previous day. These days happen about seven percent of the time.

Same thing with outside days. Just so you know, this, inside Day means kind of nothing to me. It means we just didn't have a nice trending day. We didn't have a breakout, we didn't have a breakdown, we weren't trending, It was by definition consolidation, so we're just waiting for the next move.

For me, the fact that we are are. well, if the market were to open right now, we would actually be opening below the low of yesterday. That's not the best sign in my book now. Obviously, depending on where we do or don't open in the next two and a half minutes, there might be a potential for quick upside.

Gap fill from 440 772 to 440 7.99 That's the low from yesterday. So maybe if for those of you who are scalpers, that's something you could look for potentially 30 cents of upside. But what I'm looking for personally is for the market to get that upside. Gapville the 30 Cent Upside Gap film I wanted to get that to clean up the chart just makes things look a little bit nicer then I Want to see a basically a vomit down to 446.30 the low from Friday I Want to see a bounce off of that into the exponential moving averages and then that's where I want to take my short position on the day.

That would be a perfect setup the way I look at the market. Will that come? I Have no idea, but that's what I'm looking for and if that situation does create itself, we get the upside Gap fill the vomit down to the low from Friday or within 20 to 30 cents a bounce off of that into some moving averages and then it starts to spill over again. That's the point I Want to strike? Will it happen once again? I Don't know, but that would be a perfect scenario in my book now. Obviously, if we get the upside Gap phone it keeps pushing and breaks above 450 451 then I'll be watching 453.

in terms of the cues, there's a clear support at 370 150 low low low Thursday Friday And also yesterday Tech was on a relative basis weaker yesterday than the overall market. and that's exactly why we technically did have an outside day. This low from yesterday was two cents I Believe, Uh, what was the lowest? 51? Yeah, it was two cents below the low on Friday So there was no inside day on the queues a bit weaker. so I'm obviously looking for this snap below 371.50 370 160.

in a bullish scenario, a recapture of 375. So in terms of the overall, Market that's what I'm going to be paying attention to, at least just to see how things open once again. I Will not be trading in the first 10 20 30 minutes I Just know that I assume there's going to be a lot of Market volatility. Uh, just churn whipsaw.

Just not the most ideal situation. more of just like degenerate gambling rather than like good risk reward trading. that's kind of. My Overall, quick reasoning on why I Just like to be a bit more calm right at Market Open Now before things get going, you guys have 35 seconds to tell me: Are you bullish or bearish? Are you looking for a red day or a Green Day In terms of the overall, Market If you don't comment quickly, it doesn't count if you're Honestly, if your vote doesn't come in in the next 40 seconds, it doesn't count, does not count, so you better be typing away uh-oh 15 seconds and counting.

Uh oh, you're you're almost at 10. it doesn't count if it comes in after the Bell goes dingy. by the time I Say dingy ding ding ding. It doesn't count so you better comment now.

or and there we go. Dingity ding ding ding. The casino is open. Best of luck to all.

Play responsibly, if not, have fun, load up campers. we are going to Crazy Town and we already got that Capital that I was talking about in the Spy so you almost had to play it a little bit in pre-market to effectively take advantage of that. uh, campers. We are all aboard to Crazy Town today so I hope you are ready for a good one.

Uh Matt Are you streaming all day today? Probably not. Um. I would say the odds of that are low. David is a monthly supporter over there on Rumble I Very much appreciate that folks.

Just while I'm waiting for the market to open up, I did want to reach out and Tell You Folks Everyone who is a member on YouTube I very much appreciate it. It's very, very kind. Thank you thank you thank you. If you're like dude I would love to keep supporting you I ask that you do not Rumble Just because YouTube I mean they take 30 then I pay 50 on top of that with taxes like by the time I actually see the money you're attempting to give me, it's very, very low on rumble.

On the other hand, you get a hundred percent Rumble does not take the cut of your membership so if you're looking for a place to be like yo I just want to support you. Um, if if you're in that position and I'm not telling anyone they have to do it or they should do it I'm just saying instead of giving a portion of your money to some giant conglomerate on Rumble I see a hundred percent of it I just wanted to throw that out there. Are you on one minute delay? No, uh, I'm on whatever. Like, the quickest delay is I think it's about 10 seconds roughly I Don't know you could see my clock right here.

Uh, in the lower right of your screen so you could check that against your clock. Um, so as I'm saying this right now, it hit 9 32 now and then you could just check that against your clock and it's about 10 seconds. So you should be hearing me say it's 9 32 just about now. Matt Matt You're the Best Steve You're the best I Appreciate it.

Uh, we will. We need Will Smith to join the AMC movement. Some people still like him after the misunderstanding at the award show. The misunderstanding you mean when he assaulted someone for a joke.

Wait, bad dogs. Are you messing with me right now? You actually want Will Smith to join the AMC movement because you're calling it a misunderstanding. a a miss, an assault, A misunderstanding. They're like, ah, dude I hate when someone misunderstands my fist in their face.

Yeah, super super sad. That's like, honestly, that might be the best legal defense ever. The bullet that came out of the gun. It was a misunderstanding bullet judge.

Mostly mostly peaceful. like. come on, it was a misunderstanding. His face was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

He was already planning on just arbitrarily swinging in the wind there. and it just happened that Chris Rock his face was there. It's honestly his fault. I'm surprised that Will didn't sue Chris Rock's face because his hand could have been damaged in that incident.

Jeez, geez, Why like no, you don't want people who have toxic backgrounds to be in your movement. He's the goat. He's got it all. Don't be jealous.

Yeah, a cheating wife off the hinge Kids Bad. PR What Will Smith has is incredible acting. He doesn't have it all. He's a good actor with an impressive acting resume behind him.

but his personal life I wouldn't want that for any amount of money that he has. To me, it's not worth it. A wife? What did she say? She's emotionally entangled or some shit like that. like she said that on her own show.

Imagine admitting to the reveal. Yeah, yeah, I'm definitely cheating on you I became emotionally entangled with our son's friend. Uh, hope that's not a big deal. book.

All he has is the fact that he's a great actor. I'll give him that I enjoy his acting I enjoy it. but his personal life is nothing I would want at all. And if you would want his personal life I mean dude, don't beat yourself up like that.

You deserve more. Oh, it's an entanglement. an emotional entanglement I appreciate that I forgot the exact uh, the exact words Hancock that was a good movie Fresh Prince of Bel-Air what was the recent one I saw from him um I saw Gemini man but I also saw the one where he was the Williams the tennis stars their dad King Richard that was actually a good one. Um, it's not cheating I'm just entangled emotionally Matt Do you have a Lambo already I don't I don't think I would ever want a Lambo if I'm being honest with all of you.

So yep, the Spy did get its upside Gap though the queues Don't have an upside Gap feel palantir red on the day Lucid Everything's right on the Apple's green. Apple's one of my few green watch list. Whoa right now. Uh, you have Bitcoin trading at 29.5 K You have Ripple trading at 62.5 cents and you have Eth trading at 1840.

so just it hasn't really moved much in a couple weeks. You have coin getting knocked down to the mid 80s. You have Carvana in the low 40s. Uh, Netflix is actually going green right now Netflix and Apple are my two green stocks at the moment.

the financial sector most likely dragging down the overall. Market Yeah, XLF Getting hit XLE Also getting hit oil trading at just above 80 a barrel right now. Remember, we're going to get the Eia update at noon o'clock Today Noon o'clock Noon o'clock Uh, so paying attention to that tup still somehow holding on. It's only down by three cents on the day.

trading just about 5. Uh, 20 right now. Cvna? uh, Carvana trying to make a bit of recovery down about 45 cents. rum holding above eight.

Probably waiting for its earnings next week to make any major move. Hopefully it's one to the upside. AMC Their numbers came out early and it's already nose diving. It's technically up.

It's up 14 15 cents right now. Um, but selling off since open, so hopefully there's a bit of a recovery there. Um, man, when I look at AMC I get sad not only on a personal level because I'm invested in it, but like I just feel like Adam and really took advantage of people who just didn't know what they're talking about. and now there's like this weird Cult of people trying to support it AMC's numbers their earnings report, not the earnings call.

The earnings report was released early. technically it was good numbers and that's why it's up right now. But there was also a clear warning of liquidity warning which should freak A lot of people out. it should freak A lot of people out that the CEO is talking about how they're in a like a bad liquidity situation.

Ah man I don't know uh. concerning concerning but I hope it does well. but I just don't think that there's a high odd chance of it performing with the current leadership team. I think the current leadership team is a laughing stock and I think their actions have done it I think they're kind of scummy people.

all they've done is sell stock I mean the AMC like leadership team? What was it I Think has sold like 800 million dollars worth of stock in the past like two two and a half years. Adam Aaron hasn't bought a single stock with his money. even though his pay went up from like 20 to like 22 23 million dollars. he just keeps taking a stock payment and at one point he had zero because He sold so much of his own stock.

So when you have the leadership team exiting like all the rats running off the ship like that, how does that inspire like I I Suppose retail to continue to support. What were the Gap earnings on AMC I Think they were actually positive. like the earnings report. like some of the numbers were good.

like I'm not going to sit here and just like it's all bad. it's all. No, some of the numbers were good. The concerning thing is the liquidity situation.

Which why would they dilute ape like at a dollar? Like why not dilute ape when it came out at seven eight bucks? It's just there's so many clear business missteps and all I hear is like he went to Harvard he went to Harvard Business He's so smart. If Adam Aaron is a fair representation of the type of business that is taught at Harvard Business Harvard should be embarrassed. no one should go to Harvard Business School if that's the type of things you learn at Harvard Business School if Adam Aaron is a fair representation and I have no idea if he is or isn't I Haven't met many people who went to the Harvard Business School I'm told that it's amazing, but if he's a representation about it I mean Harvard Business should be embarrassed. They should be very very much embarrassed.

But who knows, maybe he's just a bad egg. and most maybe people that go to Harvard Business School do know what's going on I don't know but dude it like he went to a good school dude. come on, grow up, grow up! How do you feel about Sofi with all the student loans being due back next month, would love to hear you what you think I think it's going to be a positive. So so far was going well there for a bit when before the Rona period before all student payments got put on pause and now also there's some legal things that actually might going like end up breaking in their manner.

basically is like all this debt forgiveness. is it legal? like whatever. that's a whole legalese type of a situation. but right now I think speaking of headwinds and Tailwinds the fact that payments are they should be restarting I mean you can see right when the stock started to really pick up.

Now once again I just want to like clarify here: I don't own anything I don't own so if I stock I'm not short I don't have calls I don't have puts I have nothing related to Sofi but it got clobbered when the world kind of went down and then also with the student loan pause that wasn't good for it because that's how they make a lot of their money. But anyway, now that the fact that we're getting back to normal and people paying ideally paying well, we'll have to see how things go with. the administration seems like it's going in their favor so it's a little bit. Chasey I mean at this point if I were to get into it if I really liked it and I'm not speaking about Sofi from like an expert position, it's not like I know their fundamentals off the back of my like like the back of my hand off the top of my head.

Whatever saying. I'm trying to say just from a risk reward standpoint at like the closer to eight the better just because I could take minimal risk. But overall I mean relative to how things have gone for the past year year and a half for this company I think right now it's looking better for them. so on a relative basis I I would argue that things are improving for it and it just has to go with more of like the US Financial student loan situation and some of the legal developments.

it seems like the Biden Administration uh in terms of the student loan repayments legally it seems as if they're taking some serious losses Now once again I Hesitate to say that because I'm not a lawyer I don't speak legalese. Maybe I just don't have the proper understanding of who's winning the legal battle or not. But in my own rudimentary, naive interpretation of what the judges are and aren't saying about this, it seems like the administration is losing their Battle on the student loan repayment or lack thereof. Really? uh, someone slapped Matt Yeah, don't do that Rico that's not cool.

That's definitely not cool at all. So how about someone don't slap Matt uh yeah the VP who was responsible for destroying Bud Light went to Harvard Yeah I mean I'm the whole like we could talk for hours about this. but I truly believe the direction that higher education has been going in. the U.S for a minute now is unsustainable.

Uh I Don't think the top schools are getting the top talent I Don't think any of the schools are paying charging a fair price for what you get. In terms of like whatever, if you go to the grocery store and you pay two dollars for a Pepsi you're like cool I think a Pepsi is worth two dollars. We're in a situation where there's people going in, they don't even know if they want Pepsi or not and then the guy's like yeah, no, you have to pay fifty dollars and then also outside of the bodega, everyone's screaming at a 17 year old kid. you need to buy a Pepsi you need to buy a Pepsi and you're like I don't even know if I want a Pepsi and it seems expensive and like doesn't matter unless you want to be a fucking loser, you're gonna buy that Pepsi for fifty dollars And then there's a lot of people who go buy the Pepsi for fifty dollars And then they're like oh, I I Don't think I want this Pepsi Uh, so I Don't think the top schools are getting the top talent I Don't think any of the schools are charging a fair price I Think there's a lot of societal pressure in the U.S To go to college where it's not the appropriate decision for everyone? Um, I'm not completely against higher education I'm against what the current situation of higher education in the US is I understand that lawyers and doctors and this that and the other thing need schooling.

but the amount of money and time I personally wasted on stupid gen EDS When I went to school, it was exactly that. It was a waste of time, money resources. If instead I got to really like hone in and be like no I Want to be a better coder I Want to be a better Trader I'd just be farther along I I would truly be farther along in my well. Maybe not because now I just yell at a camera and Give unproven opinions all the time, all day, every day.

Um, So yeah, whatever. Take it or leave it. I'm not saying my opinion is actually worthful or worthwhile worth. Maybe I should have taken more time to go to writing classes or public speaking classes.

Maybe that's what I should have done with my life instead of learning about Mesopotamian history which that was a surprisingly difficult class for. Gen Ed Surprisingly difficult. Uh, what is this one? Oh, I'm getting chilled some shitty D app bullshit dude. All this all this crypto stuff.

Dude, there's still so many scams going on. Uh Matt I Found a new strategy to generate bankruptcy stock. So basically just buying stocks, announcing bankruptcy, how's Yell doing? I mean those things, they can move because some of the shorts get squeezed like you do get High Flyers but it lasts for is just such a brief amount of time I believe Eventually Yale goes to 50 cents or maybe even zero like I Think it, it can have crazy moves I mean out of nowhere, Yell went up 733. It went from 60 cents to five dollars.

That can happen. but also on the other side of it, it can drop 52 percent like it's nothing. So yeah. these.

I'm not saying they're being pumped and dumb, but I'm saying the price action is it pumps high and then dumps pretty aggressively. You can do it if you want, like kind of some high octane craziness. Uh, important note: the cues just broke below an important level right here. the low from Thursday Friday and then yesterday Monday Breakdown: Setting up an initial test at the top of this: Gap fill at 370 30 and then there's a downside gapful opportunity to 368.63 I Think that this push I Don't know if it'll happen today, but I Think that this sell-off will end up getting this Gap filled to 368.63 so feel free to Market There's also an upside Capital to 380 69 which eventually I do think we're gonna hit I Just think this bottom one will come sooner.

That's just my own opinion. And once again, uh, you have a fair warning that my crystal ball is not working. In fact, my crystal ball is currently just functioning as a light in the shape of a moon that my astronaut is holding. So I just want that out there.

I'm stating this: Live to all of you. My crystal ball has not been functioning so everything I say is 100 accurate 50 of the time if you want a statement that's a hundred percent accurate right now, not even with the 50 of accuracy. My prediction is that the market either goes up today, down today, or potentially sideways. I'm very confident it will not be going backwards or inwards.

Uh, very very confident I would maybe not a hundred percent accuracy, but like 99 accuracy I Think the market either goes up, down or sideways I don't think it goes backwards and I definitely don't think it goes inwards. but what do I know? it's not like I went to Harvard Business School not like I went to Harvard Business School So maybe we should ask the fearless leader of the Apes Adam Aaron about it. That's a mind-blowing theory. How would cat Moors feel? Uh, I'm not too sure I'm get he's really expensive to pay, but I'm hoping that I could get some good trades in today so I can pay for him to be back on the show on Friday but it'll It'll only come if I end up getting them early.

Uh, sold. My puts made nice bank today. Why'd you get out? What? What about this chart told you that the trend was done Nick Oh all I see? Is it dying right now and maybe it's a bottom tick? Maybe you did bottom ticket, but what? What are you seeing in the chart right now that you're like oh wait, it might be reversing. Did you actually go to Harvard no I Went to Penn State for my undergrad and I almost got a uh uh Masters in statistics from Texas A M for a little bit there I was in Aggie but the program got paused when the pandemic hit and then instead of returning to the program, my YouTube career took off and now I'm a content creator now I'm now I create content.

In fact, some people call me the world's largest Pico influencer. Did you see that they found the oh not real girl in Texas That's hilarious Pico Influencer Uh well now we're going to the low to the Spy Now we're going to low from Friday So the spies getting knocked the cues are coming to the 370 30 level the start of this gap down film the actual Gap Downs at 368.63 Um, remember how I said remember my perfect plan remember before the market opened what I said a quick upside Gap though we got that to our 447.99 a vomit down to 446.30 that's what I was looking for and then what did I say? A bounce I am looking for a bounce that I can create a short position into. So step one, Check. Step two Check.

Step three. Questionable. We might end up just vomiting all day today and if that happens I would be sad because that means I missed the move but I didn't really see necessarily the best opportunity to get in. Um I Guess you could have argued.

maybe right here on this pop if you're a really, really short-minded but that's kind of shorting a breakdown. so I don't really I don't think there was a chance for me to get in yet today in terms of a reasonable risk reward setup I don't I mean I try to not trade before 9 45 So maybe right here, but literally shorting at the low of the day like you don't know that this is going to come. So I just don't think there was necessarily an opportunity for me. It happens.

Tesla's vomiting Amazon's vomiting. brutal day, brutal opening. How many of you are uh, holding holding puts right now I have no position what whatsoever. but I do want to know your thoughts on the situation I do want to know if you guys are swinging those calls here swinging them puts because I someone has to be up big money like someone in here has to be a big money.

So at least I could live vicariously through your success as I've done not much. not much in my account this morning, but I feel I think I'm not far away from getting my one prop account I think I've blown up three to four prop accounts, but my fifth one is looking good right now. Here we go: like I said step three maybe I got it right bouncing off the Friday low. Would love to see it bounce a bit higher.

something that I can actually play off of. Unfortunately I would need a sizable bounce here. This is a key support level. This is definitely a key support level so I wouldn't mind a bounce up honestly even a dollar I'd be cool with if we can bounce up a dollar from here 447.50 consolidate a little bit and then start to break down.

Would love to short it around there, but we'll see how it goes. Sqq calls are making money up 10K on Eli Lilly Congrats up 300 on a 1K account up 30 Levi Good stuff man. I'm bleeding out I have cue puts from yesterday, but it's not a big position. Well, you shouldn't be bleeding out.

If you have two puts, you should be Bleeding in I trade the first 15 or anytime I see an opportunity for that matter. Hey, like I know people who trade right out of the gate. It's just not where I found success I mean there's nothing that I ever really say that's like gospel like there's no General blanket statement that is right 100 of the market I choose to not trade in the first 10 15 20 minutes. but that's just because like I have a tough time being successful when I do.

but I know of it. sounds like you do it and you're successful. Like there's many ways to skin the cat. that's known as trading the market which is a really weird saying you ever think about I shouldn't it's all dude.

Out of all the things I could have said on stream today and I said skin and Cat I could have said something racist I could have said something sexist I could have said something so incredibly inappropriate and it wouldn't have been as bad as me saying skin and Cat dude I need to be better I could have did honestly I would have rather said something inappropriately racist or sexist or any phobic thing out there instead of what I just said. Well folks, feels like I should just end the show. What are your views on the Mmtlp debacle and what do you think will come from the SEC interference? December 9th win Divi Um, so my thoughts on it are: Mmtlp represented equity in a company that was not good. Trch was a fundamentally flawed company.

It was a bad company I would have never invested in it. but just because something's uh, fundamentally weak company, that doesn't mean that manipulative negative things can't impact it. I Mean if it's manipulation, if you're manipulating a good company, a Bad Company medium company, you're still manipulating I Think the Mmtlp community has some very fair gripes that Finra and the SEC should answer. I Think there should be more information out there I Think there's things that are shrouded behind some level of secrecy.

It's very opaque that the community at least deserves to know the answer to. So I Think and like they've asked very fair questions. I'm not going to sit here and be like oh Trch, which turned into Mmtlp like was a company destined to just rip and rip and rip. I Don't necessarily think that, but that's not really the Crux of the situation.

The Crux of the situation is even if my opinion not that strong of a company, we know it wasn't that strong of a company. That doesn't mean it is like it's okay for that to be manipulated. I Think Finra and the SEC have to answer some of these questions and with the dates being moved of when it was delisted, not delisted like just be honest about it. be transparent about it.

Um I Don't buy this of like the biggest financial fraud ever. like committed I See that on Twitter people are trying to like. To me, that's more of an emotional play that's a hopium play. It's kind of the concept of like don't let the truth get in the way of a good story type of a thing.

So I don't really fully buy that. Um, but I think the community does 100 deserve responses to the recent inquiries from Finra and the SEC because I think you should for anything. Uh, strength in the company Wasn't why I bought in Divi was supposed to be paid out in assets of Oro Grand win Divi And hey, that's fair like people AMC and Jimmy I never got into it because they were fundamentally undervalued. No, it was a squeeze play.

You can get in and out of place for very reasons. Whether you think it's a squeeze play, a fundamental play, a nice technical setup, it's not like everything you're doing has to be fundamentally sound. Some people do it that way, such as Warren Buffett and he makes billions doing it and then other people are active Traders and they're not in like the nuanced Improvement or under delivery of financial success and or failure. So with you, if that was your reason, you're like okay I want to get in for the dividend? Okay, that's a fair question and I know it got spun out to private equity and it's becoming a whole mess and that's why I'm alluding to the fact that yeah, I think think the whole Community does deserve answers and I feel as if it's going in the way that Finra and the SEC are literally just kind of like putting their head in the sand and just pretending that it doesn't exist when clearly something went awry.

I Think one of the biggest issues that we see and this is kind of, uh, um, showcasing it it's highlighting it is the fact that many aspects of the market are markets in general in the US should be more transparent A lot of the time. When you boil it down to what is the issue, it's lack of transparency and this is just another example of that of we just it clearly clearly clearly needs to be more transparent and I wish that there were avenues for that to come across. Uh, what do we? Amazing how hedgies got retail to buy into Gme, a company public absolutely hated and made memes about and they did business and they were dying I Don't think the hedgies got retail to buy him I Think it was an internet phenomena when people had stimulus checks and we were stuck at home and they were pitched this story of David and Goliath Hey, you're stuck at home. You have stimulus checks.

Do you want to screw like it was the ultimate Internet troll? Do you want to take down hedge funds? Do you want to cost them money? And people were sitting in their sweatpants during the Ronin period when we weren't allowed outside and like, yeah, no seems funny to me. Um, so I think it was a giant Internet troll For you to say that hedge funds got retail to buy Gme I don't know. there's no evidence of that When when did you see that like hedge funds were soliciting people like dude, you should buy Jimmy like these hedge funds were blowing up. They hated that people were buying Gme? Um AMC already going right I mean yeah, it's now red on the day.

Is anyone surprised? Like at all? All right. Do we have a double bottom forming on the spy in the queues? This is my main watch or are we about to bounce about to bounce? Ah, AMC Tesla Bouncing a little bit? Um, hang on I'm setting up my charts on the Futures account here. All right, we're gonna see what we have in store. I Wonder if we're going to get a bounce out of this? I'm looking for the break and hold above four, four six.

We'll call it whatever. 60 70. I'm looking at this bar. The three minute bar made at 9.51 so could be a double bottom, but let's see.

could also just be a break. Time will tell. Actually looks particularly negative right here. The cues dude spy currently down one percent down 4.2 dollars.

The queue is down 1.3 percent down 4.6 dollars. Brutal. The levels to watch if the Spy breaks. Oh uh.

My next setup is the top of the Gap at Four Four Five. If this spy breaks and holds below 446, we'll call it. Um. I'd be looking at Four Four Four Nine one.

the start of the Gap from Wednesday July 12th would I What do I think about Mmat? Um, it's not a company that I find to be impressive. um from So. I wouldn't invest in it because I don't think it's fundamentally sound. There's a reason it's trading at 23 cents.

It's kind of a shitty penny stock. Um, reverse splits. Pump Dump Pump Dump Pump Dump Pump Dump. So at this current value like it's not trending right now, it's not trading much volume.

It's a penny stock. This to me is a like. It's just a screaming example of a ticker. To avoid, it's not trending nicely.

It's just a shit penny stock. Historically, it pumps it, dumps, it pumps it dumps. I'm not seeing the start of a pump phase. I'm not seeing the start of a dump phase.

I'm just seeing nothing. It's boring. It's gone nowhere from April till now. So Ed April is 20 trading at 23 cents.

Right now, it's trading at 24 cents. It. In terms of capital efficiency, it's just not worth it because this thing doesn't move. and I'm not going to invest in it because I don't think it has fundamental appeal over the long run.

I think the CEO is like a little bit sus so like I Just think there's better opportunities in the market across the board. better opportunities. Speaking of shitty companies is multitude. Look how bad Mullen is.

Are any of the Mullins shells still in here? Ah, those were like that was one of my favorite group of people. the people in here guaranteeing me that Mullen was gonna go up telling me that I was spreading fud and it was insane that I thought Mullen would go down and it's year-to-date performances now. Oh oh, year to date, it's only down 98.6 percent. It's only down 98.6 year-to-date In the past week, it's only lost 9.7 percent, past month 49.6 past three months 92 percent, and past six months 98.9 year-to-date 98.6 and in the one year sound 99.4 But I'm sure it comes back I'm sure no, they're right.

I definitely got the read on this one wrong. and it's it's It's just gearing up to come back, folks. gearing up to come back. It's not like it was a poorly performing wannabe EV company with a potentially criminal CEO No positive outlook.

It wasn't that at all, it it was the dark pools. It was the dark pools that got a hold of it for sure. So Matt you're saying there's a chance when it comes to mine. Oh, of course man, dude.

one of this. I don't think I've seen a stronger looking situation since tulip Mania back in the 1600s and Netherlands I don't think I've ever seen something just brewing with bullish potential with massive upside gains on the table. The last time I saw something that looked this picturesque I was a little Dutch boy farming tulip bulbs in the 1600s. that's the last time I saw something this good.

True true story, true story. asked my mom about it. got ladder attacked. sure did.

Nice pop on Tesla Boom brother. All right going for a little bit of a scout play here just to see if the market pops out of this. obviously. I'm just risking this recent low seeing if we get a pop-up to about 447 440 7.50 Once again, my risk is this.

I'm just wondering oh, we might have a double bottom pop I Was looking at this bar, the three minute bar made at 9 51. So I went long on the Es contract so this is still the S P 500 I'm just kind of playing a little bit of a mean reversion up to like 4 500 4502. just something like that. minimal risk like it is on the S P 500.

I'm thinking okay, it's sold off hard, came down double bounce. We're kind of breaking out of this consolidation region I might be right I might be wrong with about 50 accuracy I Have no idea. All I know is my risk is well defined and in this one, I'm not necessarily going for a TR like a trend I'm not looking to ride a trend here I'm going for like a little bit of a scout play. basically I want to see what happens to 4500.

My entry is at 4496. Do. Let's see if this ends up hitting so I'm basically break even right about now. We'll see, we'll see, we'll see.

Or maybe I just get smacked. Who knows. When in Rome When in Rome So once again, I'm in at Four Four Nine Six. So I'm a little bit underwater right now and I'm just looking for the test of Four Thousand Five hundred.

I'd view that to be a key level and we'll see how it goes. or maybe I should, uh, maybe I should set up kind of like an elaborate scale out thing 4509. It could go all the way up to 4509. Okay, let me better handle.

let me better handle. So here's how I'm currently setting it up just to show you guys what I'm up to. Um, so I went long five contracts on the mini. Um, so One Mini itself is super leveraged.

so when you take five, it's about 5x that. so every single point that it moves, it's 250. I'm trying to unload three of my five at Four Thousand Five hundred at that moment if we hit that. if I'm fortunate enough to hit that if we get a little bit of a pop here, I would then be moving my stop on the final two because remember I have five.

I'm trying to unload three. The final two I would just move the stop to break even and I would just go from there. So that's my current play. This is what I'm attempting to do.

Um, and really I'm just looking at how we sold super hard broke outside of the Keltner Channel went sideways and then on this bar, it showed quite a bit of strength to break above that consolidation. This could easily be a fake out breakout. it could be. and then I'll be screwed.

In fact, the longer this goes I Kind of want to move my risk up to four four 94.5 So basically only risking a point and a half per contract. Um, so that's about seven and a half points for me just trying to keep my risk really in control. I'm in at 4496 I'm risking six points I'm risking six points I should be going for six points. Hang on.

Uh, I'm just updating some of my orders here. Okay, just for doing some scale out setup. Uh, so I'm in at 4496 trying to unload two at four thousand, five hundred, one at 45002, one at four thousand, five hundred and five, and then I'll have one on. Um, and obviously I just need to manage the risk here as if it goes up.

I don't know if it will, but if it goes up, I'll just kind of drag the trailing stop loss with it. So that's the first play of the day and hopefully it all goes well. So I can afford cat mores to come back on the show this Friday Hopefully I'll be able to pay his bill. Let's go, let's get this break and go.

Tesla I like to pop over there uh XLF popping a little bit XLE is definitely popping a little bit Xlu on the upper end but not really popping XLV not doing anything Xli not looking the best either. so XLF coming around XLE coming around so energy, uh, oil just popped up to 81. Please remember that there is an Eia energy Outlook Update Coming out at noon o'clock today so we have about just under two hours I Wouldn't be surprised if they're is some volatility I Don't know if it's going to be bullish or bearish, but wouldn't be surprised if crude oil has a bit of a swing if XLE itself this is the energy sector for the S P 500 if that has a bit of a swing, so just kind of paying attention to that stuff. Uh, what are we doing is this breakout? I Thought there'd be a little bit more Gusto To this up to four four, seven fifty I Thought there would just be a little bit more excitement, but maybe it's just going to get smacked here.

The cues are dragging it down. So even though energy is going up and financials are going up trying to hold uh, the tech sector which you can see with the NASDAQ under QQQ or you can check out Xlk, this is the tech sector and the S P 500. Um, there's obviously a lot of similarities between Xlk and QQQ, but they are not technically the same thing. Uh, this is the whole Tech sector within the S P 500.

While QQQ is it's the NASDAQ 100. it's 100 companies with an emphasis on Tech And really, it's more so excluding financials. Um, so I was looking good with XLE I was looking good with XLF but now the cues are dragging me down. I Might be getting stopped out here pretty soon.

Might be getting stomped out here pretty soon. Let's see. come on, what are we doing? Is it gonna