Foreign Foreign. Thank you Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. Welcome back to another episode of The Mad Core Show The number One Finance Trading show in the entire galaxy. Yeah, you found it! If you were wondering if you're ever going to track down the best money making show to ever exist in the past and also in the future, congratulations to you because you're already here.

You did it, You achieved it, and I'm super happy to be hanging out with all of you. We're starting this one a little bit early today because in eight minutes we're gonna get the retail sales report and I have a sneaky suspicion that there might be a little bit of volatility produced because of it. So I just want to see the market reaction and then obviously we could do the morning prep. and I want to kind of give you an update on all my current positions and all that good jazz.

So we have a decent amount of things to go over this morning. and I also would love to spend some time just because we've been getting so much more into call. Credit Spreads put credit spreads just options in general. If you have questions, let them fly because I'm more than happy to have a discussion with you.

Maybe I could teach you something. Maybe you guys can teach me something. Uh, very excited about this. Very excited, Very excited.

So uh, in a couple minutes here, like I said, expect the volatility because we get the retail sales report at 8 30 a.m ET uh, from there we're gonna do some news coverage stuff. Then we're going to do some chart review. Then we're going to do some position review. Uh, so we got a lot planned.

We have a lot planned. Good morning, good morning, good morning. but we get into that before we get into that. Hello I Hope everyone had a great Valentine's Day I myself got to eat chocolate covered strawberries.

So I am a happy camper. You know it almost makes up for the fact of how much money I've been losing this year and this degenerate Casino we call the stock market. Um, so that makes up for it. It definitely makes up for it.

but um, this morning we're we're rocking the grandpa Penn State mug with my fourth shot of espresso for the day and a little bit of almond milk. Just you know, New Year new Me: look at me like I'm just now a super environmental like ant like anti-climate change type of a person now. I drink almond milk and it's tough It's it's honestly to us I Got up five hours ago to milk all those almonds and they they weren't feeling it today. they were tough to track down.

but I finally did it I finally did it and I finally didn't Um hey Matt hope you're doing well I appreciate that I hope you're doing well I did Fast and stair separate already this morning I Want to die. That's brutal Robbie How many stare? How many flights did you get in? I Guess is the real question? Just read: long-term Secrets short-term training Thanks for the recommendation to use the bearish engulfing daily strap. Um I use Actually, that's a good question. Uh, first of all, I'm happy that you read the book.

It is a phenomenal book. Uh, I don't use that strategy directly, but I've used that as a start and then added a couple filters onto it that I think are a little bit better, but engulfing candles like that's a pretty solid trade for sure. Um I have to plug my treadmill back in today. What hashtag? Save the Almonds Day Trading Roblox Wish me looked didn't Roblox Just report we also have some earnings that we can talk about.

but Roblox Whoa! Roblox With a huge swing to the upside Roblox closed out the day yesterday 3567 currently trading at 41.30 ROBLOX is up 16 Wow wow wow wow wow wow wow. Holy crap. Well I hope you guys got a piece of that I hope you were on the call side of that one who is doing that Connor You're going to crush it man, you're going to crush it I I hope he had some calls there I don't know if anyone else was playing it Um I survived my 12th single Valentine's Day in the row Andy Applause Applause all around Applause All around Uh folks, if you haven't already just to get today going, make sure you hit that like button. Let's see if we could get the 18 million likes that we got yesterday and just take advantage of that algorithm again.

Um, So helps out with the YouTube algorithm and then also on Rumble helps out with the battle leaderboard so just a little bit more Community recognition. so destroy the like on both Rumble and YouTube and do not forget to subscribe on both the next. Big Goal we have as a community is 69 420 Subs over on Rumble we're closing in on 63. So if you're watching this right now and you haven't subbed yet, if you like talking about stocks, options, future crypto relationship advice working out uh, degenerate Sports Gambling I Don't know me trying to kill people on Hogwarts if that's your cup of tea is that if this is the motley crew of a digital internet community that you needed in your life, you found us.

You found us, You found us. You found us all right? Uh, well. I appreciate it and also shout out to True Trading Group more on them a little bit later, but for three dollars, you'll be able to try out their whole trading ecosystem. Their live trade alerts, their live trading discussion, their education modules, and so much more.

For just three dollars, you get it for seven trading days. So basically, uh, one full week. But seven actual trading days? So a week and a half of trading for just three dollars pinned to the top of chat? All right. With all that being said, let's see what's going on in the world.

Um, apparently Roblox destroyed it because this is what someone was just mentioning and it's very, very high. Closed out at 35.67 we are currently trading at 41.35 Uh, actually, that is so much that out of my own curiosity I Want to know? Did they even put Roblox in the big mover here? Let's see how good they did: Rblx where is it? Trip Advisor uh TripAdvisor up by nine percent Go Daddy's down TSM is down because uh Berkshire has the way AKA Warren Buffett sold it craft Heinz I wanted the numbers Airbnb is up by 10 percent Devon energy down by 6.4 percent. Well, where's the Roblox numbers Rblx CNBC earnings. All right, we might be running out of time to do this though, just because I do want to listen to that's August 9th.

Okay, they probably don't have it yet. Uh, but let's get quickly in on this. Don't want you guys to miss what is going on with a retail sales retail sales coming out in about a minute. All right.

So I have that up and we're going to look at the Spy just very quickly. Important macroeconomic report right here: 8 30 a.m retail sales and then some other and we also get Empire State manufacturing. but I Just want you to know that retail sales. it's kind of important when you're talking about inflation because it inherently is talking about Supply Demand and retail sales.

Okay, once the demand is it strong, is it not strong? So it gives a little bit more of an indication of maybe with the FED will or won't do um I know I'm on the one minute. but I Just want you know. we have been drifting in down in the post Market in pre-market session. so a little bit of weakness.

but here we go. Oh that music scared the out of me. Uh, let's see if they're gonna talk about it but should be coming out in 23 seconds. We're just seconds away from Uh Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready Get ready.

You can see that the Dow and the other averages are down down over triple digits. Now on the Dow. Some of the worst levels we've seen NASDAQ Brother no brother, oh brother oh brother oh brother. The flat yesterday is on down a little bit.

Any of these, uh, economic numbers are important. Uh, at this point we'll see about the strength of the consumers. Nowhere right in the heart that's a two year. we'll have those numbers momentarily.

He's at the CME in Chicago Empire February Read one of the more contemporary numbers we get: minus 18 comes in multiple times. a negative sign. Mine is 5.8 minus 5.8 in the rear view mirror. Minus 32.9 was the weakest.

Uh, since most SpaghettiOs This is a nice reprieve. This would end up being the best number since November of last year when it actually was positive. Now let's go to January Retail sales probably the other side of the equation to yesterday's inflation date. Expecting a headline number up two percent, and surprisingly it's better.

It's up three percent, and this is a pretty good number considering four out of the last six months have had negative signs in front of them. Uh, up Three percent is the strongest number that we've had since October which was the last time we had a positive number which was 1.1 if you strip out autos. and by the way, Autos Also, uh, minus Auto's also negative. Four out of the last six months expecting up nine tenths of one percent almost triple that up.

2.3 percent, up 2.3 percent. that is the strongest read: Boy, going all the way back to March of last March of 21.21 So a very good number. and if we strip out autos and gas also, expect it up 0.9 it was up 2.6 2.6 and that's the best number in that series. Also, since March of 21 and finally, the control group, which is used for other economic data points up the economic food chain so to speak.

Expected: up one percent is up 1.7 percent. 1.7 percent is the best since January of last year. So let's call it a one-year High Retail sales in all forms today is better than expectations actually by quite a distance. we see interest rates.

tenure was it three and three quarters and he has moved a little bit a basis point and a half. So brother pre-opening equities have had some volatility in the Dow futures to the downside, but they've come back to right about where they were right around 34 000 And this of course has the negative connotations Joe that we hate to talk about. Bad is good. Good is bad.

Oh yeah, the economy. but no matter how you slice it, you know yesterday's numbers were cooler than expect excuse me. hotter than expected, but cooler than the last look. and today pretty much everywhere you look it is better than expected.

So pricing pressures still historically by wider than uh, one year, still higher than most would like and the growth going along with it still looks pretty decent. though. pretty much every Source I have looking at first and second quarter data looking for GDP to be as Steve Leesman put it yesterday, maybe less than an integer Joe Back to you Antarctica yeah you basis and I see you actually already I could use a little bit. Can we get two more retail sales came in at a three percent increase.

They were expected 1.9 and when you cut out you mean on GDP No no no on the bonds I was like a 3.77241 almost like pie I could go out 10. look I I don't I don't talk about my investments I don't do much in terms of it but I I like the two year and the six month, uh, those are you know better than losing your money I Gotta say you could take it home now. Six nine? Yeah, take it on 470, 480, whatever it is. But Joe I Want to talk about the Gap not the clothing store, but the gap between the Fed and the market, which at this moment is at an all-time low of one basis point for the year-end 2023 contract.

Uh, we have the Fed and the market right on top of each other at 512 precisely. So big move 80. the market was building in Cuts those cuts are gone. they're yesterday's news and more.

Interestingly, on top of that, looking at where the peak funds rate is right now for the it looks like it's the August contract now trading at 529 and I want to give you one other piece of data on top of that I just got look it up which is the probabilities for the June We're now trading over 50 percent probability that we're between five and a quarter and five and a half now for the June contract. So the market actually getting more hawkish than the FED However, today's number is important for the following reason: Yesterday, we had only higher inflation than we hoped for Today we got higher inflation and better retail sales. and I Think the story today might be with this big number. an upgrade to the GDP Outlook and now this: Camp Remember you had the soft landing hard Landing Camp There's this new camp called the No Landing camp that we're not going to bring down inflation.

we're not knowing the economy plane goes forever. My knowledge of the FED is that that is not an option. The FED will not abide. No.

Landing When it comes to inflation, they will abide. No. Landing if it comes to the economy, no recession. so that means, and this is where the market is trading right now.

and I'll finish my screen. After this, it means higher for longer, not just high for longer, but higher for longer If indeed, inflation does not cooperate. If I offer the FED a deal three okay, three and three three percent Three percent GDP Nine percent GDP Three percent inflation. Is that the end of the world? I Like I like that deal Joe Joe Joe Can I just say one more thing which is um I think it's important? Um, we may be in a new seasonal pattern here when it comes to retail sales.

we have this big October huge sales in October November and December were in the toilet. they were terrible and now you have this bounce back in January I Think this is a new trend that the government's going to have to kind of when it does it. Seasonal adjustments, big numbers in cars. It was a zero.

Interestingly enough, on gasoline station sales, but a lot of things were out there. You have the consumer uh with the big uh Cola increase in Social Security the big jobs number in January you had real earnings were positive we learned yesterday. So I I Don't think Joe you can have a recession if the consumer doesn't show up right and all the things you're saying normally would be good, good good. instead it's bad jobs standing.

Yeah, right, uh. shows you with the state of the world. I mean I do I do think I Do think the FED gives you this is a little bit boring. a little bit boring.

So let's spice it up. So what happened here? Why did we just see this burst of volatility And it all comes back down to the fact that inflation is still 3x higher than where it should be. Our normal inflation should be around two percent and we're still clocking in most recently at 6.4 And they even alluded to it. And this is not really some big brain mathematical breakdown that's just really.

Honestly, the environment that we're in right now. But good is bad. Bad is good. What does it mean when people are talking about that? The fact that retail sales are stronger than expected means that demand's not really coming down if more people are buying and the consumer is active.

That means that demand's not coming down. If demand's not coming down, that means that you're not really successfully fighting inflation. It kind of tracks. I Mean right now, they were expecting inflation to come in at 6.2 percent.

Yesterday came in at 6.4 So I Don't think anyone should be really that thoroughly surprised that retail sales just came in stronger Because obviously demand isn't kind of. It isn't getting squashed out right now to any noteworthy degree. I Mean the actual numbers: They were expecting resale sales to increase by 1.9 percent. They increased by three.

So that was off by 50. And if you exclude Auto Sales They were expecting an increase of 0.9 and it came in at 2.3 So that was off by literally a hundred percent. Retail is stronger than economists are forecasting. and and if retail sales are stronger than they're forecasting, that means demand is higher than expected.

If demand is higher than expected, well, that means we're definitely not heading in the right way. When we are fighting inflation, There's a couple ways to fight inflation. You could either increase Supply decrease demand, or simultaneously increase Supply and lower demand. And right now, it seems like the demand side of the equation not really getting improved.

And if you're wondering about the supply side, well as the FED has so eloquently said so many times before, they have no impact on the supply side, That's just not their job. They can only have an impact on the demand side. And that's exactly why they've been raising interest rates. Because if things become more expensive through increased interest rates, the FED fund rate, that means you're going to lower demand.

Because inherently, eventually people are going to get to the kind of financial threshold or whatever they're looking to buy is no longer worth it. So that's the whole point, and this is in in terms of fixing a problem. This isn't a good surgeon scalpel procedure, this is just you're taking a hammer at it and you're just smashing it and you hope it works and you hope you hit the right thing. It's a very Brute Force tool that the FED has and we're seeing if it's going to work from June.

Until recently, it has been trending in the right direction. In June of 2022, we peaked out at a CPI reading in inflation reading of 9.1 percent. Since then, we've come down to 6.4 So are we trending in the right direction? Yes But Please understand that we're still far off from where we should be at two percent. So I It's good that we're trending in the right direction, but don't think that like okay, everything's great and the economy should rip and the Fed's not fighting us anymore.

It's not there, we're going in the right direction, but we still have a lot of distance to take care of In fact, we're not even halfway. We're actually still under halfway of like this journey that we're on to fight inflation. So I just kind of want everyone to know where we are in the big picture. Um, so volatility.

To the downside, similar to yesterday, we saw a pump which doesn't make much sense. The numbers that we got were good and good economic numbers means that the FED can be more aggressive and the FED being more aggressive means the market goes down. So these good economic numbers you should in this current monetary site cycle this current I guess Finance regime that we're in. Think about good economic numbers pushing the market down.

That's why we have when we have good unemployment numbers, the market goes down because everyone, well, I shouldn't say everyone the big Market Movers view this as uh oh good means that the FED has more leeway to be more aggressive. Win fighting inflation. Um, and they'd kind of view it as the Fed's going to take that opportunity. So when we see the drop like that, that makes sense knowing the numbers.

when I see pups pops like this I think what in the world is going on and then the drop I'm like okay it tracks a little but as of now in pre-market and once again we still do have about 50 minutes until the Market opens. Uh, the Spy is currently down 0.55 percent. but I want to go to the daily chart and just kind of let you know where we're at? Right now, the S P 500 tracked by the ETF spy is trading at 4 10 40. uh, as you can see here, the red is yesterday's low and the green is yesterday's high, so we're still in that region.

Obviously, if we break above 415 looks kind of aggressive, then that's probably aggressively bullish. If we break below 408.51 that's probably bearish as of now. Clearly, just based on some basic math, we are closer to the breakdown. But let's just wait because remember what happened yesterday when we had craziness in pre-market and then a little bit of a dump at Market open and then a huge rip and then a huge sell-off, then some consolidation and then a pump into close and then the pump was kind of smacked right at the end.

We're just in a very high, volatile, like massive swing whips. all type of an environment. which probably means be pretty sure about your entries, wait for exactly your setup to come to you, and probably size down just because with the whips right now, you don't want to just get whipped out of a position or you don't want to be holding for too long or anything like that. This is a good environment to just like calm and study.

Calm and steady. 50 Bips? Uh, you're referring to the next Fed Fund, right? As of now, There's about an 88 chance in the March meeting late March that it's going to be 25 bips. That's what's being priced in right now in the bonds yields Market that's what they're pricing in. Uh I think I'll be a little bit more confident about it.

There's just of many reports that have to come out between now and the actual next Fomc meeting the Federal Open Market Committee meeting which is where they decide the next Fed fund rate. A lot of reports that come out so we need to look at the upcoming Pce report which is going to be I believe next week. Uh, we're coming up on a holiday. Things always get funky around the holiday time because there's one less day in expiration.

January February March in March we're gonna have quadruple witching so that always gets a little bit nutty. So various things are going on. Um, and I think we just we're gonna do our best. Like there's this overall equation that is the stock market.

It's a infinite multi-variable equation and that's why. Especially in shorter time frames, you have a lot of Randomness involved A lot of Randomness involved. The one thing I want to point out to everyone here though, just on the daily structure is obviously we had a nice breakout. We broke out, it came back down, we retested here, and I'm kind of awkwardly referring here.

Let me just redraw it just because it is such an important trend line. We had this guy right there. Um, so we tested it. We got smacked.

We broke out. they came back down a little bit, popped it right off of that. But ever since then, we've kind of just been in this range between 405 and 418, just going sideways ever since. I Don't know we could even just call it for all of February Just kind of some sideways trading in roughly a 10-ish dollar range.

Um, so like we saw before, when your range bound, it leads to big moves right now. I don't know when it's going to break. It could happen today. It could happen many days from now.

You never really know when a range is gonna break out and start ripping or you don't know when's gonna start like really start. All I can say is I'm watching the current sideways range and when it does break, whatever way it breaks. I would be willing to bet that there's going to be nice movement in that direction, whether it's in the upside bullish direction or the downside bearish. Direction Whenever this range breaks, I bet there's going to be some good money to be made.

So I'm just kind of waiting for those larger swing plays and in the meantime, I'm losing money day trading in the Futures Market because I like the pain and I'm just collecting some premium by doing a lot a lot of call Credit spreads and put credit spreads. Speaking of call, input credit spreads um I Kind of had this crazy idea I was talking about it with like the local slash Discord group this morning I Think there might be a way on a daily basis to just look at the average true range and then add that to the opening price, subtract it from the opening price and just do a call Credit spread and a put credit spread at that value. Obviously, you're guaranteed that one's going to hit, but if you're doing it at a standard deviation move I mean you're going to be hitting on roughly 80 percent of them anyway. s what's one standard deviation? One standard deviation I think is like 63 percent of data or something like that.

Do any math nerds in here know that off the top of your head. Uh, hey, Matt Do you offer an options course? Not really. I'm I just kind of do it for free in here. so if you have any questions, I'm happy to at least share my thoughts and opinions.

uh I don't want you to think that I'm like some sort of expert or anything, but uh uh, if you have questions or maybe confused about a certain aspect, more than happy to do my best. 68 So that's one standard deviation. So really, you should be hitting on seven of ten. Seven out of ten.

So maybe you're gonna miss one and a half a week. I Think the math might work out there I Think the math isn't that an iron Condor when you're selling a when you do a call Credit spread and put credit spread. Yeah, so if you don't do the purchasing of the call and the put on the extremes, it's just referred to as a strangle. but a lot of the times people your account size is restrictive.

You can't just sell that many puts, you can't sell that many calls unless like you have a large account. Um, so some people choose to help with the risk of the scenario from going from undefined risk to defined Risk by switching it from a strangle to an iron Condor which iron condors and strangles are very, very similar. It's just really risk management I would argue is the major difference there? The major major difference there very quickly. Just some things to go over: Stock futures fall Wednesday As investors uh, process inflation data Sac Features fall Wednesdays and then wait.

Retail sales and inflation data I Love that little update that they just gave us as of now, the Dow is slightly down, the S P slightly down, the S P slightly down. uh Dow S p Nasdaq all slightly down. oil coming off a little bit but still holding uh at some of the Devon energy reported. uh.

oil play didn't do so well I Believe there's down six percent. Yields are slightly up. Retail sales jump three percent. in January Smashing expectations despite inflation increase.

well, kind of crazy. Consumers are just choosing as of now to spend more and more and more so demand is still high. Which means we're really not battling inflation as well as we could be. Expectations were 1.9 percent.

We came in at three percent. Five things to know before that belt goes dingy ding ding ding today Wednesday February 15th I Actually haven't looked at this yet. but I want you to know the main thing? You should know the out of the five things that you should know before the Market opens. Expect whipsaw.

Expect strange swings. expect some craziness. I Don't know if we're gonna be seeing like a nice Trend day that's super easy gives you like a clear setup. A layup of a play where you get in and you ride it all day.

I Would love for that to happen. But when we get into these environments when people are trying to weigh out previous reports such as yesterday when we got the CPI report, the retail sales we have earnings still going on you. It's a better statistical chance that we're seeing Whipsaw in One Direction or the other. got to get over the hump.

All right, we're just talking about the craziness of the week. We'll do more of a breakdown of the overall Market Tesla opens its charging Network more on that in just a second Ford's battery bus. It's not all good news in the world of EV batteries Ford halted production and shipments of its Flagship F-150 Lightning pickup over a possible issue with its batteries. Some people are interpreting this to be good news for Tesla but on that front, we also have some bad news for Tesla Specifically because Elon just said that they're going to not have a new Twitter CEO until the end of the year and people are worried that maybe this is gonna when he splits up his time so much.

maybe not so good for Tesla so more on that in a second. Goldman continues Consumer: Retreat is giving up on plans of a branded credit card I Guess Goldman doesn't want to be in the credit card business uh, that tricky housing market. So I actually want to talk about that right now? Mortgage demand drops as interest rates bounce higher. So for almost all of last year, we just saw real estate prices go higher higher, higher higher higher.

And then also because we are in a cycle right now with the FED of a rate increase, we saw a mortgage start to go up and up and up those mortgage payments. Well, since then, there's been a little bit of a reprieve, a little bit of a breather. Uh, for a couple weeks I Believe it was like five, six, seven weeks in a row, there was like a little bit of a drop. Um, that winning streak has recently come to an end and now we're once again bouncing.

Total total mortgage application volume fell 7.7 last week. Uh, as because mortgage rates jumped higher. That is a weird mistake last week. I Think that's just a little bit of a typo.

The average contract increase rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased to 6.39 last week from 6.18 so still very high. I Want everyone to know that? Yeah, we've been trending down, but not long ago. A handful of months ago, we clocked in like 7.2 7.3 percent. And if you go back like a whole year ago, people were getting it in like the three or four percent range.

So like we are still very, very, very high. Applications To Refinance Home Loan dropped 13 for a week and we're 76 lower the same week. One year ago, that's what happens when rates go up and up and up. So yep, we did get some information of the world of real estate.

today. we got retail sales I Just want you to know at 9 15, there's a couple more reports coming out and then at 10 A.M We're actually going to learn more about real estate. the Nahb Home Builders Index once again coming out at 10 A.M Tomorrow is a normal Thursday We're going to get the initial jobless claim some other things and then Friday Uh, things calm down a little bit I Want you to know that in observation of President's Day Friday or excuse me Monday February 20th Monday February 20th the market will be closed in observation of President's Day Just so everyone knows. So that is going to have implications on us hanging out because if we stream, it's not going to be the market.

Maybe we'll stream a game or something like that. Uh, maybe I'll see if I can get that green spell in Hogwarts and start killing all those NPCs It's just a dream of mine. Honestly, it's a very important dream of mine, so maybe we'll do that on Monday But really, I'm bringing into your attention in case you're an option. Trader I Just want you to know that you might have one day Less in the options contract than initially.

Uh, expected. Let's talk about earnings. So early this morning we had roadblocks. They crushed it Airbnb crushed it.

We also had TripAdvisor that crushed it Devon energy did not crush it. After the market closes today, we have Shopify We have Roku We have Cisco Tomorrow before the Market opens, we have Crocs We have Paramount After the market closes tomorrow, Thursday we have DraftKings and then on Friday we have John Deere Feel free to screenshot this. feel free to check it out at ewhispers on Twitter I Really like these I find them to be super super useful. but Tech technically we're not in like that massive massive excitement that we were for the past two weeks in earnings.

but still, we're technically in earnings season. After this week, it really slows down and the week after, we're kind of done until the quote-unquote next earnings season. but I just wanted to put that on everyone's radar. Tesla commits to open 7.5 000 Chargers in the US to other electric vehicles by the end of 2024.

the Biden Administration wants at least 500 000 publicly accessible EV Chargers on Us roads by 2030. Now, companies that build and operate charging networks including Tesla GM Forward Charge Point and others stand to reap the rewards of federal funding if they meet new requirements. White House Officials announced Tuesday that Tesla will open up 7.5 000 of its charging stations by the end of 2024 to non-tesla EV drivers. Previously, the company's charges in the US were mostly used by and made to be compatible with Tesla EVS only.

So they're basically just getting tax dollars because the government's going to pay them to do this. And honestly, in the world of VV that's a lot of how this business goes is getting your funding from the government and all these rebates and all just these from a business perspective. Positive Financial things going on. So Tesla 2024 Just want you to know that obviously we are continuing with this big Eevee push Elon Musk aiming to appoint his successor as Twitter CEO by the end of 2023.

Now this is actually a little bit of negative news because the general sentiment was that he was actually going to have a Twitter for CEO or a Twitter CEO even earlier. So the fact that this is kind of potentially getting pushed off to the end of the year people are saying Elon what's going on Man, we know you're already busy tweeting too much, but you're the CEO of Twitter and then you have SpaceX You have Tesla You have boring. you have neural link. where is your time going So especially on the Tesla front.

a lot of people are saying Elon you we need you back here focusing your energies on this company so not being really interpreted as the best development with Tesla and Elon They very much wanted a new Twitter CEO even earlier. But hey, honestly, in the end of 2023, it's not that bad. It's not like you kicked the can down the road too too much. Elon Musk said Wednesday that he might be able to appoint his success right.

Twitter CEO by the end of 2023 I think I need to stabilize the organization and just make sure it's in a financially healthy place and that the product roadmap is clearly laid out. The billionaire indicated late last year that he doesn't expect to be the CEO of Twitter permanently and eventually will hand over the reins to someone else I Think that's a smart move. He was also speaking at this conference and he was just talking about how like silly the world government is. If we have some time oh which we totally will, we can listen to that Early this morning and then the final thing that I wanted to quickly go over is this: Microsoft's Bing AI Made several factual errors in last week's launch demo.

so we have Google messing up. Now we have Bing's AI messing up. It seems like the only AI player that's really working is the open AI chat EBT But then people are pointing out how it's like absurdly politically biased anyway. so like is that one really working and showing off its chatbot technology.

Last week, Microsoft's AI analyzed earnings reports and produced some incorrect numbers for Gap and Lululemon AI Experts call it hallucination or the propensity of tools based on large language models to Simply make stuff up. We recognize that there is still work to be done and are expecting that the system will make mistakes during the this preview period. that's their spokesperson. Obviously not the best news for the stock in the short term, but eventually I do think they're going to figure it out.

Uh, AI Experts call hallucination me too brother. The propensity to just make stuff up? Are we really even different from AI I mean I Hallucinate all the time? Hell yeah! I make up all the time. Why not? There's there's no difference between me and Microsoft's AI or Open AIS AI or Baidu's AI or Google's Hey, we're all out to hallucinate and just make up and that's part of the game. Sign me up and sign me up.

All right there we we have the Spy Tesla's still looking very strong. uh Tesla strength relative to the rest of the market I I don't really buy it right now I I Don't quite understand it. The news afford a little good um for Tesla but the fact that Twitter's not gonna have that CEO anytime soon I Don't know I Feel like Tesla has had just, uh, an overzealous bullish reaction lately? Um, I'm still bullish on Tesla in the long run. But I'm saying if you just look at how it's performed this calendar year, I mean it's up a hundred percent.

It's up Over a hundred percent. Seems just a little bit too much, a little bit too quickly in my book. maybe it can hold I I Just don't buy it. I Just don't think that's the statistical likely outcome that Tesla holds at these levels.

It just went too far. too fast. it might be able to hold I'm not telling you, it's impossible, but I Just think if we're playing the game of odds, there's more likely a Tesla retraction in price and the near future rather than a continuation up to whatever 230, 240 something like that. All right.

Well, we kind of ripped through everything very quickly and I wanted to see if they who, what guests were they going to have on Squawk Box this morning? Who are they all right? We know that's going. Who are they talking about? uh, the two-year Futures Edge lower NASDAQ Notch's second day of gains uh, what are they talking about? Dang and same thing y'all were talking about airline prices. Airline prices were down two percent which is what kept Services where they were I don't think anyone expects that to continue I could have gone to Europe cheaper than I'm having to pay to bring my daughter home from New York for Spring Break. So I think prices are going to continue to move a little bit higher.

All of this speeds into the fact fed's going to continue to move higher. You need to have a balanced portfolio and be tactical in your moves. We got about a minute left, so they when we were at 35 and change on the S P 3200 didn't look too far away. but we've had a pretty solid beginning into this year.

We're back to over 4 100 on the S P and 3200 looks very far away. although we had a strategist on yesterday, that's his case. Do you think we see new lows and and have a a bad 2023 would be as bad as 2022? Is that what you're expecting and a quick answer here? Victoria I Don't think we're expecting as bad as last Outlook because we're just going to be choppy. I think for most of the Year add a little fixed income to get some yield in your portfolio and you should be able to ride it out all right.

Victoria Thank you and we, uh, we will watch for the mild recession I Guess we could all handle that. Maybe get a final check on the markets and remember Mike Wilson Yeah, the worst case was three thousand. Remember if it was really that's a 3200 is not out of the question, but it just looks far away now because we're at almost 4. 200 come up quite a bit because we've come up quite a bit.

It's always interesting though. we're back down triple digits again on the Dow and they're synchronized today. Unlike the central Bankers of the world, the markets are all down. Make sure you join us tomorrow.

Tomorrow's another day. We got through hump day and tomorrow is in fact another day. You decide what you're gonna do. It's changing the way we do the world.

It's changing the way we view our relationships coming and going all the time and everything's right there on tape. Joe Yeah, well. I mean they're not talking about the markets, want good data, but this is bringing in a relationship. I'm with you.

Great show today guys! James Freeman Lee Carter Yes, everyone's awkwardly doing this turnover at 9am. Have a great day. Everybody will see you tomorrow. Ashley Webster And for Stewart this morning Ash Take it away.

Thank you good morning Maria And good morning everyone! I'm Ashley Webster in today for Stuart Varney Let's get right to this: Elon Musk says he's looking to appoint a new CEO of Twitter by 2023. So get your resume ready and you know what? Tesla Shareholders have to be happy with that news. And we're also learning that Musk donated nearly two billion dollars worth of Tesla stock to charity last year. And there's one more news on Tesla: The White House says Tesla has agreed to make at least 7 500 of its publicly accessible charges in the U.S available for you.

All right? It doesn't seem like we're missing out much on this was Kramer talking about so um, probably you know in Netflix and they're getting paid by the government to do it with the government. basically install itself at the center of uh of the EB infrastructure more than it already is. Um, you know Yesterday the reason the NASDAQ was positive was Tesla in Nvidia Um, those are two stocks that have house Nvidia been together. uh over the past several years.

they have very similar evaluations. Again, Oh, Nvidia has been ripped into the High Heavens Really a tribute. the Tesla move to well shutting Shanghai Factory Uh, kind of swings in pricing. It doesn't look like earnings videos are kind of being right here going down.

but we're back in the excitement mode about uh, not just uh, the general push to Aid to EVS but Tesla's Advantage Nvidia's IV rank is interesting. Uh David uh October 27th of last year stock close at 225. Okay, now's the day the Twitter deal closed this unstable, uh, kind of finances at Twitter Maybe it was going to leak over into Tesla somehow. Now it's been reversed.

Uh, kidding me. that's crazy since the start of the year. Uh. and now what's interesting is wow.

The Street's kind of chasing Tesla right? Wow Because the consensus price estimate is like 200. the Stock's above 200. Right now. it's going to open.

here. you go 212. as I said, 225 was the October 27th level and that was down from over 400 at the peak. So if you want to contextualize all these moves, it's massive.

Snapback Uh, Revival Off of, you know, really kind of washed out levels. or at least a huge test of the long-term conviction of people who've been with Tesla for a long time. You know, is it indicative of sort of this I don't know if I want to call it animal spirits? I'll leave the language to you Mike uh in the market a bit here because it's re-engaging sort of retail investors once again with a name that they've loved in the past that obviously must have hurt for some period of time. There's no doubt it is.

Um, it's not. Do they go out of their way to make it this excitement and like it has two ways to play it. One is that. Oh, back to their old tricks.

You know they got burned in this area before. They have to be trying to make it that boring. I I truly truly believe that? That's just. uh, that's crazy.

Uh I I Feel like honestly, they are attempting to make it that boring? Okay, uh, so before, uh, happy to turn it over to you for some questions. But I do want to let you guys know all my current positions. so let me, uh, get this up here. I want to do a quick review? So Mpw, what is Mpw I Have no clue Uh I just saw that it had a really really high IV So I thought it was ideal to sell a call Credit spread I sold the 14 I bought the 16 the differential there was 27 cents and as of now I'm up six bucks.

so the max profit on this is 27 and I'm currently up six. Uh, which means I am. uh I guess 24 and as soon as that goes right over 50 like somewhere between 50 60 I will capture those games once again. I Have no idea what this stock is, what they do I Just saw that it was like mathematically a favorable position on the cues.

I have a Feb 17 and a March 3rd call Credit spread. So two separate call Credit spreads right now this one's down. I'm getting my ass handed to me on this 305 I think I spread it too far like I was just taking on too big of a risk. Uh, my break even on this would be I played it by a dollar Thirty So I'm as long as the cues are below 306 30.

306, 30 by tomorrow Friday it's Wednesday excuse me by the 17th I should be good I get my Max profit if the cues are below 305. but I will be break even as long as we are below 306.30 And then the March 3rd one was 315 by 316. Um, that one is doing fine I'm just waiting for that one to kind of come into my favor. Um, don't worry about this top one.

Uh, it, it's already I have zero. Uh, that was like a weird little degenerate trade I did yesterday and I was just betting on the Spy being below 413 by close and with minutes to go, it dropped below 413. So I got the Mac tax profit on that for this week Feb 17. Uh, what did I do I did a 430 by 431 Easy money I I Really don't think this buy is going to be above 4 30 by this Friday So I'll get 100 of the profit there.

Uh, easy, easy. And then for March 17 I spread 425 by 426. Uh, that one's also up right now. so that one's easy money.

Now let's get into my messed up positions. Uh, this right. All of my credit spreads have been working. It's this directional Tesla put that is currently screwing me over I have two Tesla March 17th 175 puts I got in at 785 they're currently trading at 4.95 so I'm getting messed up on that.

Um, but in the other ones right now they're not looking so pretty. But the credit spreads that I sold I mean I have a Feb 17, I have a March 17 and I have a March 3rd. I think they're going to end up making me money I still think Tesla's gone too far too quickly I think if anything, we're just gonna see a IV Crush I think the volatility on Tesla's about to get crushed. So I think all the credit spreads are gonna pay.

Uh, the only thing I don't like is my directional bet on Tesla as of now. but I have a lot of time. it expires on March 17th. We're not talking about Feb 17.

we're talking about a week and a couple days out. So I think I just need this one to cook. but I just wanted to give you kind of uh, an idea of where we're at. So for example, the the put play.

where are we at on this one the put play is honestly of what I'm down in my open p l as of the close of yesterday, you can see that that's actually two-thirds of it. So without that play, I would basically be green. um I just will wait for open but I think Tesla's gone up way way too quickly and I think I'll be uh, raking in those gains pretty soon. So I just wanted to be kind of like as honest and forthcoming as I can with all of you.

I'd like to show off that account, especially because I really really do believe that selling premium I'm gonna convert some of you in here and I I can feel it that I think we're gonna as a group start making money very very consistently by taking really good statistical setups. low risk, low reward, high accuracy I'm gonna convert a lot of you in here to selling premium and to be robotic Traders Systematic Traders where you are consistently making a good percentage and from that point all you have to do is scale it up as soon as you figure out the system that you are consistently profitable. Whatever percentage that is to make more money, you just scale it up. Scale it up, scale it up.

The hard thing is not making those like big trades. It's more finding a repeatable system and then when you're comfortable with that system, that's when you throw more money at it. Um, so one of these days, and hey, with some of that extra money, if you guys want to do Dgn trades, I'm right there with you. I'm still generally trading my day trading my Futures account.

uh, that's where. like that's my Dgen stuff over there in the Futures right now. Um, which? I probably should systematize that because it's going very, very poorly. But in terms of selling premium I mean thus far this year, we haven't missed on one.

We have not missed on one of them. This year yesterday got a little bit close and I'm obviously for this. Friday I'm a little bit worried about the cues I need the cues below 305 by Friday to get the max profit. but as long as it's below 306 30, Uh, I'll be at at least break even.

That's my break-even point. So anywhere below 6, 306, 30 and I'm good below 305 I get my Max profit. I Think today there's a better chance of the market coming down and obviously I can't guarantee this. But my reasoning for that is the fact that we pushed yesterday blows my mind.

We got inflation that came in higher than expected and the market went up that that's a clown show. that's a circus. That's us living in the upside down. When inflation comes in higher than expected, the market should not be going up.

And then when we look at the retail sales that we got this morning, obviously the retail demand is higher than anyone wants it who's paying attention to the current monetary economic cycle? So between the inflation report and retail sales I think there's downward pressure on this Market I Do think it breaks to the downside: I think there are too many people loaded up in the right now the bull ship ship I Want to clarify that so I don't get murked here on YouTube early this morning. Um I think there's just people who are too overconfidently bullish right now and I think it's going to bite them in the ass. That's my opinion. Maybe I'm right, Maybe I'm wrong.

We'll see how it plays out, but just kind of with the inflation report retail sales. I Think that the Spy is going to be testing that 400 key psychological and Technical level 400 we're currently trading at 411. I think we test 400 before we get that Gap fell up to 421 and some change. So I just want to throw that out there to everyone.

It's my thoughts, my opinions. It's not a guarantee by any means. there's so much Randomness especially in the short time frame. but I just want everyone to know like where we're at and like what's going on.

Um Tesla puts her calls I have puts just because it I wouldn't Chase it I think if you're in Tesla calls um, the recent two-day push has greatly benefited you. but to buy calls now you're you're chasing I mean Tesla has literally gone up a hundred and three percent. If you're chasing that, you might get lucky I Hope you get lucky, but that is not a good repeatable system to chase things that are up 100. That might work nine times out of ten, but the tenth time you do it, you're gonna lose all of your gains.

I Do not think that is a positive system. A positive. EV System I Think you're going to end up getting crushed if you were continually chasing like that. Tesla's up over a hundred percent in a month.

In two months Technically a month and a half and we want to be really specific I Just don't think it's a good strategy. Uh Tesla day as a positive Catalyst Uh, no. those are commonly by the rumor sell the news like they if you like, you should look at them. Historically, it's not like they've the stock has performed specifically well on those days.

Does anyone use Robinhood Margin? Is it a good idea or not? Uh I don't think you should be using Robinhood Period. Uh, but it's what degenerates do and hey, yeah, you can make money. It's just, uh, don't pull off an Icarus situation. Don't fly too close to the Sun If you're making good money, you probably should be focused on locking it in and not doubling, tripling, quadrupling down and something that is already statistically unlikely Tesla Shares will Outlast All options? Well, of course, because options expire and shares don't of course, like.

that's just how it works. What's the best platform to trade song features with low portfolio. If you don't have access to interactive um, trading futures, I mean Futures are going to cost the same no matter like they like the way Tesla costs the same and it doesn't matter what one you're on, it's gonna cost the same. It's not like for some reason it's not like you can get a better price on different brokerages, it it trades at the same thing.

Your brokerage is just your access to the exchange, so you're just going to want to find one wherever you can trade it. Uh, do you still have your spy puts expiring? Friday I do um, that's in a different account. What I was showing you before is my the thinkorswim uh in my interactive brokers account I do have spy puts for this Friday that I'm just getting my asset to me. The only way I'll get out of those alive is if the Spy like gets crushed today.

So with my commentary, you might be thinking, but Matt that makes you probably most likely biased. Oh, I'm totally biased. um I am net short in my active trades right now I have Tesla puts I have spy puts and I've sold a bunch of call Credit spreads I'm definitely net short I de-risk the situation quite a bit by doing call Credit spreads as opposed to buying puts. but I still do have Tesla puts I still do have spy puts is a vertical the same as a call Credit spread a call Credit spread is a type of vertical.

a vertical In the world of options, trading is more of a general term and a call Credit spread is a type of a vertical. There's many types of verticals and I mean you could do a call Credit spread a put, credit spread, a call, debit, spread a put that it's Fred and all four of those are still technically verticals. So there's a put betting against Tesla Yeah, it is. If you are long on a put, you are.

It's a bearish directional bet. Yes, Yes, yes. uh. Tesla Super Bullish today for sure.

Okay, bullish today. Are you sure there's some quick calls? Wait, why do you think Tesla's super bullish? Um, this is a common thing that I see is it is. There is no statistical I guess agreement with performance in pre and post Market with how it does in that intraday session. So just because something's up in pre-market doesn't mean it's going to be up in the day.

That correlation doesn't exist. Just because it's down in pre-market doesn't mean it's going to sell off continue to sell off during the day. That is a correlation that I think a lot of people like have in their mind and they want it to exist, but it does not exist. Um, it does not exist whatsoever.

I've done a fair amount of research on that because I thought, oh, that's easy. if we're up, I'll go along if it and like then I think Well, if it's up, maybe the odds tell you that we're gonna go down. Maybe it's always reversion that correlation doesn't even exist. Um I don't think that there's much utility in using the pre-market performance or underperformance and trying to apply that to the intraday session I it just doesn't exist.

Uh, any. Gap fills on the morning? Nope, not on the Spy Here we could check for there is a downside. Gap fill. Actually, if I had to play Tesla for a quick day trade I would actually be going against it to a downside Gap though.

Uh, speaking of Gap fills right here. there's a downside. Gap bill on Tesla to 309.82 That's what I would be playing. Um, it's just I think it's absurdly silly for something to rip.

Come back down, rip again Gap up and then people are like I still want to buy that. it's silly. Like your risk reward is not reasonable. You can do it and you might make money.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but what I am saying is taking this type of a trade going long at this situation over many various data points like a law of large numbers, you're going to get blown out. It might work in this one individual instance to go along here: I don't buy it. If I had to play Tesla actively as a day trade this morning, I would be betting against it. Down to this: Capital at 209.82 But in terms of the overall Market there's no Gap because yesterday's range the high was 415, the low is 408.50 We're trading at 410.53 so there's no Gap there on the cues.

The high was 307.72 the low is 391. We're trading at 305 so we're in the bar. Um, no Gap there and then pretty much how low did we get. There's no gap on the Russell either, so no gap on the Spy, the queues or the small cap sector on Tesla there is one you could play.

The downside: Gap Filter 209.82 I Like the Gap though, plays better on indices. just the odds are better. But the odds are still pretty solid on the bigger blue blue chip socks such as Apple Microsoft Tesla Nvidia How's Nvidia doing uh Nvidia no Gap there Meta: no gap on meta Microsoft no Gap Google no Gap Apple no Gap there's a huge gap on Roblox but I wouldn't be Rblx. Uh I wouldn't be fading this just because it had pretty good earnings and that's why it's up.

So I wouldn't necessarily be betting against that one right now. So the major Gap that I see is Tesla Tesla Tesla Tesla Um, AMC's Gap is billions. Uh I Have no clue what that means I Have absolutely no clue what that means at all. Uh, very very quickly here.

Uh I'm just gonna go grab a coffee. uh, before the Market opens today I Want to get a quick refill? so I'll get some music for you? Uh I just I need I Don't know how long does it take the Nespresso to make an espresso? the Nespresso to make an espresso? Uh here. I'll be. just give me like 30 seconds.

Your boy needs to get a coffee. Foreign. foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign. ER Let's get ready for the trading day.

Already lost one of my pens already lost one of my pens. All right. we're ready. We're ready.

We're born ready. This is what we're meant to do. This is what we're meant to do. All right.

I Hope you got your third cup of espressos because I have mine! uh Natty Lightsaber celebrate the first Super Chat from Natty Lightsaber. Whoa. That's nice. Oh, here we go here we go.

Let's do this thing today. team. Um, before we get into the craziness that is Market open a very quick shout out to today's stream sponsor I'm talking about true Trading Group Basically this, if you want to be a better Trader If you're looking at your overall P L and you notice that it's red and it's going down down, you got to do something different and this is your opportunity to potentially really turn that around. For just three dollars, you can get a one week trial of seven trading days for one three dollar payment.

No Auto upgrade or anything like that. Right here on the screen is Mike Edward Uh, he's been on here many times. He's the head Trader X Hedge Fund Trader That now teaches everything he learned in hedge funds to retail Traders Such as you, such as me and anyone else who's interested Now, obviously it's a whole trading ecosystem. They have education modules.

They do one-on-one teaching. They do these specialty courses on the weekend. Um, they do trade alerts. They do live chat rooms.

They have a lot going on and you can see if it's appropriate for you for just three. Do a very quick trial. it is pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video.

I Highly, highly, highly recommend it, especially just for the trial. I Mean you really don't have much to lose. Um, so check it out for just three dollars today on the market. Oh I think I forgot about this.

but I should probably show you. um, the seasonal bias of today is actually absurdly bullish. So over the past 25 years I've examined this trading day trading day of the month 11 for February The Bulls have won 72 percent of the time and the profit Factor was 4.3 as in every single dollar spent has returned four dollars and 30 cents today is absurdly bullish from a seasonal standpoint. Now I Do want to point out the fact that this bull win rate doesn't say a hundred percent of the time, so one in every four has actually been a loser.

But overall, if you are continually bullish on this day over the past 25 years, it would have paid off very, very very nicely. So I mean look at that Equity curve on the bottom here. you have all the individual years which are individual trades because the way I set the system up was to trade this one day at Market open, sell it at close and it just does it on this day and I looked at this particular day over the past 25 years. So you have basically the year, the individual trades and then the equity curve up here and it's just been absolutely crushing it.

So I just want you to know a little bit about the seasonal bias of the day. we have that uh uh, just for those of you who want to know what's going on with this, buy: I'm basically looking for the breakout of 415 or the breakdown below 408.50 I Want to see if we break above yesterday's higher break below yesterday's low and I'd be interested in seeing what the continuation is going to be from there. What craziness we have. Oh yeah, this is just some messy crap.

Messy messy messy messy messy messy. Not the soccer player. Are you demonetized I Don't think so. Why am I demonetized I Just hit the add button did an ad play for you guys add inserted pltr Well, they had earnings too.

didn't they? two days ago had a nice Gap up and push. um I wouldn't Chase it right now I I Do think that they could be interesting as an investment for sure, but it depends on what are you talking about. You're talking about as an investment. Are you talking about it as like an active trade? Um I don't have ads? Can't help I never get ads WTF no ad.

Oh maybe I'm not monetized I don't know. maybe maybe maybe I don't know. You guys help me help you what's going on I never know what's going on in my own streams. That's not how I run this show Hyundai ad says otherwise I'm premium though I don't know.

Team: this. not my, not my pig, not my farm browser with an ad blocker. Uh well. you guys are the reason I have to eat cardboard? No I don't really care I don't think I even have the capability to do it over on Rumble In all reality, Programmatic adds a little bit of an insight into the world of content creators.

Programmatic ads are not where content creators money comes from. The the money comes from the advertisements. Such as true. Trading Group That's why a lot of content creators.

They're trying to come up with their own like personal relationships with these companies because this is how a lot of content creators put food on their tables. It's the host red ads where the real ad money comes from programmatic ads. It's not like sometimes it's all right. Like if you're huge, someone like Mr Beast I would assume he's making hundreds of thousands.

If not, no, he's probably making hundreds of thousands from programmatic ads that play on his videos if I had to guess from like his biggest. Channel But he probably makes millions from his host red stuff. All right, let's do. You guys want the music on today? Music: Yes or no for today? How are you guys feeling about that? Uh, it's a little loud in my ears, but it says it's low.

Yes, no, yes, no, Yes No No No Yes yes no. You guys are giving me 50 50. Uh okay, it's not an overwhelming amount of yeses, so I'm gonna pause it just for Market open and then maybe we'll come to it if things calm down. But as always, I am actually expecting a little bit of a a crazy day just because two days back to back a pretty important reports.

Uh, maybe we'll put the dollar down here just to see what's going on. Uh, right. All right. All right.

All right, All right. All right. All right. All right.

let's go. Let's go. let's go. The casino is open.

Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not have fun. All right. I Did want to kind of attempt some degenerate trade out of the gate degenerate in the fact that I haven't really tested it.

but I don't want to bet that much money I just want to see if it's a good concept. Um, what are we currently trading at in the Spy We are trading at 410. 410 410 410. So if I look at oh, those spreads are so bad.

Well that's why this spreads are awful. They're really really bad. These ones are bad too. Well, that's why no one's doing it.

Maybe Should I do it for a week out. What is today's Feb 15 What's next week? 22nd The 22nd should I I'm trying to just sell some premium to see how some of this might work to see I want to sell some premium to get today going? Okay, okay, 418, Um, all right, we'll send that one in. all right, I send in one order. Okay, just gotta f