All right, thank you, thank you. That's why we forget again. All right together, my apologies, my apologies, my apologies. uh I messed that one up.

you had to watch two intros because that was on me I thought I was playing the new intro and then I went to go get a coffee and then I came back and I was like that's not the new intro and then I had a split game time decision to be made right there and I thought to myself I was like all right you lit the old intro play out and maybe no one will notice that they saw it yesterday. or will my producer get so pissed off that he put in so much hard work into the intro? that'll be mad it's not played. So I was like I just gotta play it I just gotta play it So I played the whole new one. so you got a recap of yesterday's intro in case you missed that.

you were late to class. demerit demerit demerit or even worse, you didn't show up at all, you're skipping and then you got to see today. So it is. It is what it is, but it is Fomc day so we're already getting off to a rocky start.

But that's fine. Let's get all of our bad luck out of the way. now. You want your bad luck out before the Market opens.

You want your bad luck out Honestly, especially before we get to that 2 p.m Fomc Fed rate hike release and then Jerome Powell Speaking at 2 30. it's going to be a day we have a lot to go over. I mean here I am I Was coming up with a game plan for today and I think the cool thing we're gonna do is over the past six rate hikes starting on March 16, 2022 we're going to look at every single individual day and I want to show you a pattern basically of how that movement from 2 to 2 30 gets faded from 2 30 to the remainder of the day. So I want to talk about that with all of you? We're going to be going over it: I have all the dates I have all the information we need and we're going to be doing that just so you maybe feel a little bit more comfortable.

Now, if you're not a full-on degenerate, there's a very good chance you should probably not trade until 2 2, 30, 2 45 today. But if you're like me and you're degenerate and maybe you two are streaming to thousands and thousands of your favorite internet friends, you might feel a little bit of pressure to do something because who wants to sit around and watch a guy not put his entire account until so I'm gonna try to figure out something. Maybe we're gonna like size down if you get what I'm saying, but we'll see, we're gonna see what the Day brings us. Obviously I don't want to do anything before 10 a.m I Got screwed over on that open range breakout trade yesterday, but that is water under the bridge.

It's a whole new day. not a whole new week, but it is a whole new month. Happy February Happy Hey oh oh hey hey happy Happy New Month! For those of you who believe in the Gregorian calendar, I'm not the biggest Gregorian calendar guy out there. We've talked about this a little bit back and forth, but um, I know some of you are still on the Gregorian calendar and still believe in the conspiracy that we call time.

but that's not one of my things. and in fact, that's not the only conspiracy we really, uh, we could discuss various conspiracies today. For example, it is the Fomc day as in an unelected body. The Federal Reserve who has an immense amount of control on our financial lives like way more than you ever know because we were never really taught it in our education system, which is absolutely astounding.

They're going to be making a big decision and I'm just going to throw this out there. I Don't have the proof, but it's a conspiracy that I think has some legs if you haven't seen it already. early this morning Tom Brady retired Tom Brady The quarterback who's commonly considered the goat The guy who blew up his entire familial life just to play another season of football. The guy who lost millions and millions of dollars being associated with FTX he personally invested in him.

He's done so he's done so he's done so he's done so. and he's I do The dude ended his relationship with a supermodel he has kids he had a 200 million dollar deal with Fox to just start commentating he's like nah I Gotta play again I Gotta play again and it's announced today Feb 1 2023 arguably one of the most important Fomc decision days we've had, at least in my very storied career as a Trader I mean I've been doing this for decades and decades. Four, five, six decades I've been at this game and I don't know if I've ever seen such anticipation as we're seeing today. Which leads me only to believe that Tom Brady retired in time to trade zero DTE YOLO options with all of us.

it's the only thing that makes sense. He's like, okay, my NFL career is behind me I loaded up my Robinhood account. Let's see what kind of YOLO degenerate far out of the money short expiration options we can play I think he's I see what you're saying in town I think he's trying to make back his FTX losses I think he's trying to do it in one trade I think who is Tom he use to be a quarterback but now I think he's a d-generator with us I mean honestly, he might stop by and chat today if he's like all right guys, what are we feeling? Are we going? Are we going Balls to the walls with calls? Are we going with puts and what's cool about it is I think he's going to be able to give us some very uplifting speeches like right there there you are in your option, you're down 92 percent. You don't know if you should double down right off the losses, you don't know what's going on and then Tom kicks in the door.

He's like hey, when I was down a million points against the whatever the Hawks in the Super Bowl you think I was gonna quit at halftime? You think I was going to quit? No I made a comeback and then yeah, he's gonna talk us into doubling, tripling quadrupling down to lower cost bases and then bada bing bada Boom daddy Pal's Gonna Save Us and the market will go in our favor. I'm excited I'm excited. He seems like a guy who has no risk management and is ready to clown, deflategate deflategate. Oh brother, who was it? who did he play that he was down I forget the game.

it was the Falcons oh it was a bird folks. I'm not really a sports guy I love betting on sports but I just don't have time to watch him. Honestly, does anyone else just get bored like if I like games are long man I Had I watched the Eagles game this past weekend and I felt like I was at the bar for ever and right here you guys are arguing. Man, you should the Hawks it's the Falcons like you're acting as if birds are real.

Come on grow up you think I'm gonna argue with another adult of Falcons versus Hawks when like you're glossing over the fact that birds aren't real to begin with like grow Up I'm honestly tired of this of like some of the cheerless attitude that we see going on here related to birds like let's be, let's be realistic. I'm gonna argue with someone about hawks. It doesn't matter, they're all fake, they're all fake. It's like arguing against like my parents love and my completely real girlfriend.

Doesn't matter, they were non-existent to begin with. like we're not gonna like start picking sides on like fictitious battles like it just doesn't make sense. All right, it is a big day. It is a big day.

It is a big day and fomc things are going to be crazy at market open today. I mean you saw the market close yesterday I Don't know if you guys caught the end of the stream yesterday, but it literally cemented me as the best Trader on this side of the Mississippi and I ended up locking in a scorching gain of 88.50 So I'm I'm almost able to buy another dozen eggs we're getting there. What another? like 11.50 something like that and I might be able to get another dozen eggs so uh, massive massive trade yesterday Warren Buffett shivering in his Oklahoma or Nebraska home in his Omaha wherever that dude lives these days Munger he's Running Scared Bill Ackman scared quarrel icon scared I Mean, trust me, if you don't think that those guys saw how I was treating training yesterday. if you don't think they saw that ending clip, you're just you're confused.

You obviously don't know that I have strong connections with Ken Griffin and I got him to send my trading log to all those guys. like just shaking in their boots. livester knows what's up shaking in their boots. uh I see matters already flexing on us again I'm trying to get myself jacked up I didn't have the best start to the day.

um I don't know why but I woke up and my tummy wasn't feeling the best and uh I made this stupid decision to start drinking coffee. on top of that. This these are the times that when people come in here, especially on Twitter my comments and they're like you're so stupid and I'm like no, I'm not and then I do things like this and I think maybe they have a point. maybe I am stupid like I get it that I'm the problem but it's a different thing to truly internalize it.

It's one thing to logically accept it. It's another thing to emotionally accept it. And I'm getting to the point that I'm like, maybe like I mean obviously they're right about Ken Griffin paying me a million dollars a day to go against retail I mean who's going to say no to that money and that's a logical thing. but when they just say like I'm dumb and I'm the problem, it's that emotional thing that I'm like wow, they might be right I don't know I think that's called maturity but we'll see how it goes.

So I want to talk a lot about the FED uh, the name of the game today as I alluded to before, it's from a statistical whipsaw account leverage Degen type of a scenario Viewpoint Vantage Point whatever you want to call it, it's probably good to not really do much trading until we already get the results until Jerome pal starts speaking, which is going to happen this afternoon. If you want to do some stuff this morning, probably size down, probably be like a little bit safer with it so you can still be around to play ball later on in the afternoon. That's just my two cents. do what's appropriate for you.

I'm not only not a financial advisor I think I'm the opposite of a financial advisor like there's some people who are just neutral. they're like I'm not a financial advisor but I'm also not like anything I'm the opposite I am what would that what would even be the opposite Just like a loser I guess I don't even know a Financial Warner whatever it is then Mac get a new camera. No, this is the one I've been with a bit. Oh my hair is not perfect.

That's problematic. That's problematic. So I Want to talk a little bit about what's going on with the Federal Reserve I Want to talk about Tom Brady retiring I Want to talk about some of these earnings I Want to talk about the Fomc meeting I Want to talk about uh, kind of an update with project Veritas Pfizer and YouTube being a kind of really, really mean they're picking on me which is not cool. Um, so a lot of stuff to go over Matt start drinking tea I probably should a Financial terrorist I Probably shouldn't say that word because it probably is somewhere setting off like certain.

Flags if I had a guest moist matte I Don't think we should continue with that one. That one has a weird tone to it. Moist matte? Yeah, let's not. Let's not continue with that one that Financial Assassin Matt Look at Msgm.

Wow, you mean the one that's gonna pump and dump Eddie You look wet bro. Okay, let's stop. Let's let's just put. let's just not do that.

Let's start the Show Dow Futures fall as Traders await the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike decision. The Federal Reserve is an unelected body that has more control over our financial lives than you would ever know. The Federal Reserve controls monetary policy. They control the FED fund right.

They can make restrictive environments. They can make accommodative environments. The Federal Reserve is the exact same reason we had a recession in the early 80s. Inflation was high, so they jacked up the FED fund rate and that hurt the economy in terms of the demand so much that they had a Fed engineered recession to fight inflation.

But it also put us in a recession. There's various other examples of this if you rewind to the Ronin period right when it first hit in February from February to mid-march the market took a big big dump like it sold off pretty bad. Then the FED comes in and they say hey, you know what we're going to do. We're going to keep the interest rates at zero and we're going to do one of the most unheard of policies of quantitative Easing ever.

If you've never heard of quantitative easing, it's also referred to as QE because people who talk about this stuff are cool and they like to use acronyms to feel better than everyone else. Basically, they put a bunch of funny money that they literally just pulled out of thin air into the economy like they just literally were making. When we say printing money this day and age, they just go to a computer and they just like type in like a one with a couple extra zeros and they start putting that into the economy. So when everyone is like bitching and moaning about like the billionaires becoming richer and blah blah blah during the Ronin period, it had nothing to do with them.

It's because they own equity in stock. and then the Federal Reserve pushed the stock market up to literal all-time highs even though we were locked inside. And obviously it's a little bit of Monday morning quarterbacking at this point. but they've admitted to it they're like, no, we did too much.

We probably shouldn't have printed 40 of the US dollar in existence within a year. Uh, it's just absolutely crazy and that's just the start of it. Fun fact about the Federal Reserve is that got started on one of those like weird Christmas Eve midnight votes. Um, they are government.

When they were creating it, they did it in a very sneaky manner. They didn't want it publicly known what they were doing and that kind of tells everyone that they know they were doing something that was going severely against public opinion. So just a little bit of history there on the Federal Reserve. But they control monetary policies.

so quantitative easing or the flip side of that is quantitative tightening. But they also control the FED fund rate. So right now that's what's going on. today.

they are increasing the FED fund rate. As of now, there's about a 99 chance that it's going to be 25 Bips rate hike. So 0.25 0.25 also known as 25 Bips What does Bip stand for? Honestly I don't know and at this point I'm afraid to ask. So I don't know.

Business points is what we'll call them. Who knows I don't think anyone knows what a Bip is I Just like to think of them as business points. But anyway, so that's happening today and it's going to have a gigantic impact on the economy on the stock market. it is.

And that's what's been going on. Over the past six meetings, we've gotten continuous rate height increases and the reason they do this is to lessen demand. As things get more expensive, because interest rates are going up, there's less demand, and with less demand, that's one way to fight inflation. That's what's going on.

And also, they switch from quantitative Easing where they were printing funny money out of thin air to the tune of 120 billion a month. Now they're trying to do the opposite to quantitative tightening and they're trying to normalize the balance sheet is the proper terminology to the tune of I Want to say either 90 or 95 billion I think it's 95 billion a month at this point. So they're trying to like rear this like rain this situation back in if you will but we'll see if it. this is the whole thing of soft Landing of they're going for a soft Landing as in they're trying to calm things down without just crashing into the side of a mountain.

Uh, a lot of people think it's impossible. Other people are thinking, well, it's kind of working I Mean in June That's when June of 2022 is when we peaked in the current bout of inflation and we've been coming down nicely. From that, we've dropped from 9.1 percent down to the mid sixes, so it's coming down. But please understand, we should also be at two percent.

So even though we're coming down and we're trending in the right direction, we're still 3x the magnitude of where we should be or 3x. Um, so I Just want everyone to understand where we are in terms of trend, right direction, but magnitude not so good. Anyway, after the Bell opens today, we're going to watch the market open for the first 10 20 30 minutes just to see how everyone's reacting because Snapchat Reported earnings AMD reported earnings Peloton reported earnings Meta: AKA Facebook's going to be reporting earnings after the market closes today and just as an FYI after the market closes tomorrow, we have Apple Amazon and Alphabet AKA Google So I Just want to put that on your radar. Also, on Friday this week before the Market opens an hour before the Market opens on Friday we get the unemployment report just so everyone knows, because it's going to be.

It's just a crazy, crazy week. So anyway, today, that's kind of like what to pay attention to this week. Um, if you want on locals as long as I have time, All right, we have 10 minutes. Dude, that's plenty.

I Mean we could do a lot of things in 10 minutes. Um, we could go over the seasonality of today, but the seasonality of today is absurdly bullish and this is actually a common phenomena that you see at the start of every month. And the leading thesis of why the market is bullish at the start of every month just has to do with the pale payroll cycle. the common payroll cycle of many people in America.

So basically whenever everyone's getting their two-week corporate payments, a lot of the times, a portion of that is going into the market, investing in their long-term retirement. and commonly people get paid at the start of the month, halfway through the month. Something like that. So there is a little bit of a bullish skew at the start of months and also halfway through the month.

just so everyone knows. Um, the the. Once again, the leading theory is just because of like the common payment cycle, which makes sense to me and I'm not going to look into it anything past that because it sounds all pretty reasonable honestly. So today, the Market's going to be very, very apprehensive.

There's going to be a certain amount of uncertainty going into it, just because even though we're 99 sure it's going to be 25 bips, It really all comes down to what is Jerome Pow going to say what is Money Printer Daddy Galore Pal Going to say at the 230 press conference obviously we will be streaming the entire thing right here. So if you're watching now, you're literally gonna be here until 4 pm today. Like if you were watching this right now, you are legally not allowed to leave I Want that to be specifically clear. Like specifically clear if you're watching on Rumble if you're watching on YouTube you're allowed to switch over to the other platform if you so choose.

Mainly, you should switch over to rumble but you're not allowed to leave like I'm gonna find you I will 100 you Exactly wildly calm Notes: Straight to jail. Straight to jail if you leave. Uh, so please keep that in mind if I see my viewership ticked down by one person, all legal help will break loose I Want that to be stated up front right now I'm leaving at 9 55? No, you are not. If you're leaving, you're leaving to the you're leaving in a Paddy Wagon if you will.

So then down the S P and the NASDAQ are all slightly red. Uh, oil is going up I'm still very bullish on oil in the medium term and then yields are taking a little bit of a breather. but this what we're seeing here, it's just whips all its apprehension going into it. So on top of the Fomc meeting AMD and Snapchat reported last night AMD did well Snapchat got its face kicked in.

and then after the market closes today, we have Facebook AKA Meta. and then tomorrow Amazon Apple Alphabet Ford Qualcomm Starbucks Um, so some pretty important one. So let's do a quick recap of Snapchat Just so you know, it closed yesterday at 11 56 and right now it's down 12 trading at 10. Uh, so it got hit pretty pretty hard.

Snapshares plunge on weak Revenue as digital ad struggles continue. so digital ad struggles continue. That makes me feel not so Bueno about Meta. Please understand that.

Meta AKA Facebook The one thing that's kind of keeping in the float as it's continually throwing money into the fire as it's trying to make VR a thing it's it's trying to keep it like. ads are what keeps Facebook going. So if and I'm not in by any means saying Snapchats anywhere close to the size of Mena but if we're seeing digital ad spend go down, it most likely is also impacting Meta now. I Can't say that with any guarantee, but it kind of makes sense to Telegraph this move forward to Meta, but we're going to be.

We're going to be finding out this evening. Um, so I just want to share what's going on with Snapchat Revenue 14 or excuse me, the earnings per share 14 cents versus 11. Their revenue came in a little light 1.3 billion versus 1.31 Their Global daily active users 375 They were off a little 375.30 and then average revenue per user 347 349. And they also ended up having to lower their future guidance which is probably the real reason why it's down so much.

On the flip side, AMD doing pretty well AMD Closed out yesterday at 75 15 currently at 78. So AMD for those of you who don't know, is this semiconductor play when I say semiconductor? I mean those fancy schmancy processing chips that make the technology around us? uh, work? So if you're thinking about super computers, data centers, crypto, uh, even gaming like this is what semiconductors are used for the Gpus, the graphic processing units. Why AMD is faring much better than Intel In the same tough economy, you should read this: I mean Intel Also, a semiconductor plane is getting it just got destroyed. It's probably Intel is probably my least favorite semiconductor play ever since they had their very public breakup with Apple a year or two ago, so Intel was creating the processing units, the Gpus for Apple and then Apple said hey, go kick rocks! We're going to create them in-house and ever since then, from a business standpoint, Intel's been struggling a little bit, but AMD and Nvidia Avda, you've probably heard of Those two are my two favorite ones, with AMD being number two.

I Really like it in terms of price to earnings. Like what it's trading at, it's actually trading at a pretty fair multiple. Nvidia is a little bit more elevated, but I like Nvidia because it kind of has the gold standard when it comes to semiconductors. But anyway, AMD Looking good.

If you want to get more into the Nitty Gritty of what's going on here, you might want to read this article. but AMD it's just looking pretty solid right now. and those two were last night early this morning. We have Piton Peloton Losses narrow as subscription Revenue again outpaces equipment sales so it's still losses, but better than expected.

Um, losses per share 98 versus 64 and then Revenue Uh, so the revenue coming in higher than expected. So a little bit of uh, like, wait, what? Peloton Losses narrow. How are they narrowing bosses per share 98 versus 64. it sounds like they lost.

Wouldn't that make sense to say Peloton losses. Why did? who's the dumb one here, the author of this article or me? Losses per share 98 versus 64 expected? Well, that doesn't make sense. but also, it doesn't really matter too too much to me because I don't trade Peloton but it's Revenue crushed it Peloton Like I mean it just got such a hype wave when we were all locked inside and people were still trying to work out. and like I mean honestly, they didn't even have enough equipment produced to meet all the demand.

But now that the like world is quote unquote, returning to normal pintan has just been kind of going down and down and down. Me: Yeah, that makes sense. I I Agree with that. So those were all the earnings.

Obviously there's still more this evening. There's a lot more tomorrow. But I Want you to know the big things today? Um, we already got the ADP unemployment report. We'll be going over that after the Market opens.

Uh, at 9 45 we get manufacturing PMI Then we have some stuff at 10 A.M The real party gets going at 2 p.m at 2PM we get the Federal Funds rate and that's the decision of: Is it going to be nothing? 25 bibs? 50 Bips? Most likely 25 bips. Actually, In fact, as of now there is a 99.3 percent chance that is a 25 bips rate hike. There are some big banks that are expecting it to be 50 bips. some are expecting it to be zero, but the large majority as a 99 of like what's going on.

Really, this is based off the bonds Mark of the yields. Um, but most people are pricing in the fact that it's going to be 8.25 increase. so we'll see if that is. If we surprise to the upside, look for the market to tank.

If we surprise to the downside, look for the market to rip to Kingdom Come So that's big in terms of macroeconomic. Here's everything the FED is expected to do on Wednesday. We're going to come back to that in one second and now that we have a minute and a half left, until that, Bell goes ding ding ding ding to kick off a fresh new month. Five things to know before the Stock Market opens.

Welcome to February Uh, basically just talking about the Fed and the Fomc meeting today. New Month will test stock rackets, Stock test stock rally. What you need to know is the month we just put in is the best singular month we've had in a couple years. Like January is actually a very, very strong month for 2023 and we're gonna find out.

Today is the day we found out if this was legitimate or not. and unfortunately it's not going to be early this morning. It's going to be a couple hours from now, but we will find out Google under AI pressure. A lot of people thinking wow, Microsoft might have a winner here with chat GPT and now Google is apparently having all of its employees test other things to see where they can get into this world of AI can't snap out of it? Snap.

We went over their earnings. It kind of sucked. Uh, dangerous radioactive capsule found I Did not read this one and it's in in north of Perth Uh, Six millimeter Avon Here radioactive capsule that fell off a truck deep in the remote part of Australia That doesn't sound good, but that's what you're supposed to know now that the bell went dignity ding ding ding The casino is open, the casino is open play responsibly. If not, at least have some fun.

That's it. That's it. That's it. The bell's open.

Let me turn all the bells and whistles on. You guys know me not gonna be trading until my earliest trade, especially on the day like today won't be until 10 a.m Um, so let's watch the market open for the first 10 20 minutes. I Do want to show you the Uh official video from Tom Brady Retiring. We're going to be going over that.

I Want to break down all the recent Fomc meetings on an intraday basis so you can actually see what happened? Uh, very, very important. So for you guys to understand that, yeah, it is commonly faded and what I mean by that is that big jolt. Move from like 2 to 210 is commonly faded and actually reversed by the time Jerome Powell starts speaking. So has it happened every time? No.

But I do want to show you just kind of the historical trend of all of it. So we're going to be going over that. Uh, there's a couple other things I've written down that I think are important or at least funny for us to go over to pass a little bit in time. but this is it.

Msgm. All right, Msgm, What's this one doing? Uh, so it was up way more I mean it went from 27 all the way up to 80. back down to 27. This is crazy I have no Msgm position at all.

if I were playing it I would be keeping my risk extraordinarily close by just so. I Don't get blown out of my position, but this is not. Oh I Also have this really really funny clip from the Vice President of the US Kamala Harris and she's explaining I guess like how rockets work and it's so funny. It came out yesterday and I'm very excited to share that with all of you.

Very very excited to share that with all of you. Um, and now it's halted. Msgm halted at 9 30 147 so it'll start trading again at 9 36.47 looks like Visa or versus uh Visa I think is just V but two halt already this morning. Uh, for the ADP non-farm employment it was 106 versus 178.

So uh, coming in a not as high as they would want it which remember we're in that upside down world of like good news is bad news, bad news is good news because of the current monetary inflation situation. So Msgm will start training again. Uh, just before 9 37 it was a circuit breaker halt. simply just moved too far too fast ever since Market open Snapchat Trying to bounce back AMD Giving up some of its gains, we're seeing big 50 Cent swings already in the Spy That's exactly why I'm avoiding it just so I Don't get caught up in all these shenanigans all these Shenanigans Hey, if you haven't already, don't forget to hit that like button helps out with the algorithm on YouTube But most importantly, it helps out with the battle leaderboard over there on Rumble And as we're letting this kind of rock shout out to one of today's stream sponsors I'm talking about Brick House Got mine right here.

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They have other products such as caffeine pills, sleep aids. They have the fruit and veggie bar here I Really like the chocolate berry one. My completely real girlfriend actually thinks that the vanilla almond honey one is better. We were actually just fighting about that this morning.

so I would love to get your thoughts on which one you like better amino acids, creatine all the good stuff if you want to use any of this which I do highly recommend. I would say suggests also getting 15 off by using that code Matt M-a-t-t will get you 15 off. Uh, Brickhousenutrition.com pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Or if you're specifically interested in this product the field of Green products, you could go to Fieldofgreens.com All right, shout out to Brickhouse for being a partner here.

That's awesome. Uh, shout out, Shout out, Shout Out! And now I Just want to quickly show you the daily on the Spy just so you can kind of see where we're at to do we don't need this. We don't need this, We don't need this. Uh, here we are.

Uh, as you can see, we have been pushing. We had a little bit of a pullback. we started to push yesterday and now we're kind of in that decision zone. So even graphically what you're seeing about the indecisiveness of the market or what you're feeling is being shown exactly on the chart.

Um, so we pushed. We kind of came back, but it pushed, but it wasn't a new high so we're just awkwardly in between. Uh, this will most likely end up being a big movement day, but I think the real big movement is going to come in the afternoon. Just so everyone knows.

does the Spy ever get halted? Yep, there's overall Market halts I believe it is at 7, 13 and 20 are the three, uh, percentage changes that the Spy would get halted. So if it drops seven percent in a day, that's a whole I think it's 7, 13 and 20. Uh, it's a rarity, but it does happen. uh Matt How are you any thoughts on Neo uh I Kind of like as of now I mean I still like Tesla the best in terms of EV plays.

Neo is tough even though I like their technology and I think it's impressive. It's also kind of a you have an outsized political risk because you don't know how relations are going to go down with the US and China. So be careful with Neo. Um, It's just tough like that.

It's tough to measure that risk, but it's a very real risk you need to consider. Uh, hey, Matt can you look here QQ Haley it's right at the 200 EMA Oh, I have the 100 up. Uh. I Believe you that it's that.

Well, it's it's actually looking just like the Spy Sold off, popped, pulled back, popped, pulled back now. indecisive. Uh, it's gonna be a big day. We're gonna I don't know I Something tells me that this entire move is gonna get faded like I Think we end up coming back down just because I'm not really believing the government when they tell us that everything's great and the economy is like the best recovery we've ever had.

uh I just don't buy it. Uh, just talking to friends family reading what's going on I Think people are starting to feel more and more of a financial pinch I just in my opinion and I don't know I I Just don't believe what the government, particularly the Biden Administration the Bureau of Labor Statistics I'm just not buying what they're telling us I know that's a little pessimistic I know that's a little Michael burry sounding of me I I I'm just not buying it. hey Matt Can you advise? Solid Mullen today. Uh, maybe later.

but Mullen I mean I still I'm not even the biggest fan of Neo I am. as a company, it just sucks that they're not based in the US but I mean I think Mullins trash I think Mullen is absolutely trash. Uh, could be a great High volatility trade but I mean it's trash From an investment standpoint. Um, Msgm, did it halt again? Is this already the second? Hall Why is it not? Trading Something's up.

maybe I thought it was a volatility Hall yeah trading halted trade Hall and Aztec only volatility trading pause trading. Expected to resume. Uh, so did not resume. That's kind of funky.

A 10 minute haul for the first haul today. That's that's abnormal. Um, it happens. but definitely abnormal.

Oh wait. I Forgot to stand up folks. Stand up. You don't want to screw up the posture of your lower back.

If you have a standing desk or a way to stand, this is your reminder to get up. Get up, Get up get up. Not only are we going to be healthy with our dietary add-ons from something like Brick House, but we are also going to have better posture and burn some extra calories. Bye you guys know how it is.

You guys know how it is. We gotta stand. We gotta party. Can't party sitting down.

That's just crazy. All right. let's get ready. Let's get ready.

Let's get ready. Let's get ready. Uh oh. I did want to show you uh, once again, this is all on locals.

I'll get that pinned. Uh, but today. spy Seasonal bias to kick off. Uh, the first day of the month.

So trading day of the month One: Over the past 25 years, the Bulls have won this day three out of four times. 72 percent of the time it is paid to be a bull. On today. Seasonal bias Bullish.

Clearly this is the overall the individual trades. This is the equity chart and you can see from 1998 until now this day it's not always bullish. but if you're individually trading this day it clearly pays to be a bull. This is just ripped.

Bottom left to top right, 72 percent Bullish Accuracy Profit Factor: 4.49 Which means for every dollar spent, 4.49 has been returned. Over all of these individual trades, it has been crushing it. Um, so I Just want everyone to know about that 99 chance that based on the Bond market really the yield Market One in the same bond prices go up. You'll go down.

You'll go up. Bond prices go down. They move oppositely. But anyway, the bond market is pricing in a 99 chance of a 25 Bips rate like we're currently at 4.25 They're saying we're going to go up to 4.5 Uh, we'll talk about this a little bit later.

and some weird moves that JP Morgan is making. We're going to be going over this. Pelton's gonna jump 10 after Fitness Company post subscription Revenue growth. Oh so it's going up.

We went over that the radioactive stuff in Australia We're ready to go. Uh, and for whatever weird reason, M S G M is not trading yet today. Uh well. it traded today, but I thought it'd be a five minute haul.

We're gonna find out if it's a 10 minute haul in about one minute. two minutes. Uh, so maybe be on the lookout for that. We have this.

We have this I Just want to make sure we're not missing any news. Remember there are reports coming out at 10 A.M this morning. Um, actually one at 9 45 as well. So um, fair amount of reports today Lots Going on.

High volatility High Fun. High levels of fun. Uh, all right, it's trading day. Yes, it is.

Yes, it is. Yes, it is. So the Spy trying to push uh 405 is an important level. That's kind of what we were looking for to get to yesterday.

We opened above it, trade it right below. It seemed to bounce off of it. Let's see if this will hold or not. Is my account ready to trade? if I want to do something stupid and silly? something dumb and silly? uh no.

Is my account on okay? cool. We're ready to go. We are ready to go there. Started training again.

M S G M I Guess for whatever reason they put a 10 minute halt on it. Probably just because it went from 20 to 80. back down to 27 this morning. Like just pure.

Insanity it's gonna halt again. There's no way this doesn't halt again. Yeah, like is that the hall did it officially halt again? Yep right there. Oh wait, no that says resumed I Feel like it halted I Think Benzinga might just be a little slow, but yep, right there.

9 42 33 Uh. Second halt of the day for Msgm. Crazy, crazy, crazy. uh AMD Making a recovery people are talking about AMC Um, it's only up nine cents folks.

I See AMC yeah uh. Steven it's up eight cents. It's up 1.7 percent. So let's let's save our massive cheering for like actual big moves.

I Don't see big percentage moves I mean the big percentage movers Snapchat which is down 13 percent. but other than that I'm not seeing like it's gonna be like awkward chop. It's gonna be a lot of awkward chop. uh, still holding AMC and pior Poots uh where are you on Bior? how's that looking on the daily? Uh, this is the artist formerly note: Oh, this looks like ass.

It's breaking down. No, this is good. It popped up, started to sell, made a lower high. We're testing support right now.

Um, as long as you have enough time in those puts I think this pays. Um I'm actually long on Bior so I kind of like what you're doing like I still have my shares, but in terms of an active like I mean just if we're looking at the market structure of it lower highs, looks like it's cracking this low right now. Um, it seems like it's a matter of time before that one pays. Seems like it's a matter of time before that one page you have a month I Like that I Like that.

I Like that. All right. The market internals are very, very neutral right now, so not much to be said about that. Uh, we're probably gonna.

we'll have more of an idea of the market uh, internals probably around 10 A.M So we're gonna wait on that. We're almost 15 minutes into the day. almost 15 minutes into the day. the market as indecisive as could be.

uh, got smacked here at what time? 43 and 44 45. Well, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see.

We'll see. This is already the second halt for Msgm Motorsport Games I Don't even know what happened. What was the news data alerts, watches and details? calendar hotlist. My ideas: What happened is it being acquired or something like why did this one start moving out of nowhere? Is it just like an acquisition leading to like a squeeze type of a scenario? Does anyone have the Tldr on Msgm? Matt Keep the positivity, man.

No. Nothing about your emotional state is going to impact AMC Like I Really don't understand that Like we got to be positive. No, be logical. Learn things about the market.

This: the market gives a total of zero about your emotion. Like zero. Like you could add it up and it is. It adds up to zero.

Um, this concept of we have to be positive about AMC it it. I Don't know. It just has an inappropriate tone to it because that's just not how markets work. If you're like I'm just positive about my positions.

Okay, cool. You're probably gonna end up losing money. Mscm met listing requirements officially with the NASDAQ Oh well. that prompted a huge move.

It has to just be a low float. Squeeze Play for that to happen, then for that to happen like the the percentage movement I Bet if we look up at outstanding Share account, it has to be so incredibly minimal. So incredibly minimal. Uh, do we have red, white and blue? No, we do not.

We have red, White and blue. I'm just looking how the trend is stacked right now to see if I could take this open range Breakout Kind of stacked on the 15 but in this I don't know I Do like the higher lows I do like the higher highs. Is it gonna get smack here? Is it? Well, it would have just triggered? Do we do it? Do we do the Open Range breakout today? Or is it going to be? Thank you. A little nervous.

What's my range risk? Kind of a wide risk. Didn't did it technically break on the 15. No, it actually didn't come close I was um, oh there we go. Order filled all right.

I'm trying to play the Open Range breakout. We'll see how this one goes today. I got busted up on it yesterday. All right I'm just setting my risk.

so I don't get blown out of this position and we'll see uh playing the Open Range breakout of the 15 minute candle. Uh, don't the reason I'm playing it yesterday I Avoided it to the upside just because. uh, the kind of trends that we were seeing in terms of just like basic Market structure. uh, were a little choppy so I avoided it.

but given yesterday was a strong Green Day looking at some of the time frames. now the EMAs are pointing to the upside. I do like the higher lows and the higher highs. so I'm looking for a bit of a follow through.

Unfortunately, as soon as it just broke out of its 15 minute range, it also just got smacked. which sucks for me. but um, the odds are on my side. Obviously nothing is ever, ever, ever going to be guaranteed in this, but it is a statistically favorable play.

AMC is now up 19 cents so at least it's moving. Gives us something to watch. Msgm unhauled it again and then I Think has now already halted I Think Msgm is now on its third halt of the day. third Hall 40.

Yeah, Third Hall right there. That's crazy Msgm. third hole. Uh, if you want to check in on the options market right now, it's favoring the Bulls 64.4 uh, money being spent on call Premium So thus far favoring the Bulls but with that in mind, this could dramatically change throughout the day, dramatically change throughout the day.

All right, let's see. let's see. Let's see. Let's see.

Let's see. Let's see. Whoops. Whoops Whoops.

Okay, I do have my audio on so we know if my trade is hit or not. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Let's go. whoops. Hopefully this pushes a little higher.

would just love to see 406 and I mean it'd be fun to see a follow through. but um, obviously I Think this goes without saying. but maybe for those of you who are kind of new to the Fomc day and the high volatility like, uh, if this is kind of your first time really like here with the market, watching it on an intraday basis. Understand: today is a very abnormal day.

Very very abnormal day. High volatility, big swings. um they happen. They're fun if you're on the right side of the trade and they suck if you're on the wrong side of the trade and if you're on the very very wrong side of the trade, uh, you could blow up your account.

So on days like today, the name of the game is take as minimal risk as you can like kind of deleverage and like adhere to whatever your trading plan is. So for me I have an idea of what's happening with this open range breakout. I Know the odds favor me and this is my top profit. Target So I'm just looking for a little pop-up there not swinging big early morning.

If I take any big swing trade, it is going to be after the Fomc result this afternoon. So I might go for little scalps here and there. As you can see, I'm trying to scalp 350 dollars which almost is about to hit, almost about to hit. hopefully if any any luck, any reasonable luck.

Um so I Took the open range of breakout for a couple of reasons. Oh one. I Know today is a high volatility day so even if you're wrong, there's just in terms of Randomness you might get your fill hit anyway. There we go.

Um so just locked in 350. Um so feeling good? Uh, more than I made yesterday? Um so the reason why I took that trade is if you look at the 15 minute candle, there is a statistical Edge to playing open range breakouts, especially when they're in Phase with um, certain trends like for example, see how these are all trending upward. all these EMAs trending upwards. so in Phase Red, white and blue as they should be because this is America So red, white and blue was stacked.

We took the Open Range breakout which is also in alignment with the seasonality of the day. That's what I showed you on locals. Today is a very seasonally bullish day. So I saw the technicals line up I saw it line up with seasonality and I also know it's a high or like just volatility day.

so even if I'm wrong, there might be a chance of me getting a quick fill. So I took those odds. Um, it's never ever guaranteed. but I really like the odds of the situation.

So I took it and I made 350 and now I'll just wait for other solid opportunities. but obviously, especially if this is your first time, you got to celebrate the little things in life. Which very much means partying when you make money by playing uh, in the world's largest digital Casino right there. Gotta celebrate the little things.

Gotta celebrate the little things 350 Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy which means I can almost buy a dozen eggs. Very Very excited Your boy's gonna return to the world of omelets. The world of billionaires who actually get to eat eggs in the morning because they're the only ones who can afford the 3A goblets. Who would have thought that in the year 2023, the true sign of wealth was eating breakfast that thick son of a Matt course.

Uh, maybe if we get a maybe if we get another good trade today I'll be able to eat an omelet both days this weekend. Saturday and Sunday moist Matt makes money mmm when you hear this Matt did good. Yeah, if you're new to it, we just party a little every time we make some good trades, but I just wanted to explain the math and the seasonality. Oh for those of you who like that seasonality, I mean I've done it for a week.

First of all, let me know if you want me to continue with it. If you find it like helpful but in kind of a high level discussion. what I do here is I have 25 years worth of data I examine that exact day and what I do is I test like okay, if you were to buy it open and sell it close, how would it perform and then I just plot it out. Okay, over these are all the individual trades.

So the first trade was the loss, the second trade was a game. The third trade was a gain. So I put all that data together for you. So over the past 25 years, 25 individual trades remember buying at the start of the day, closing at the end of the day.

Uh, the Bulls have won 72 percent of the time. Profit: Factor 4.49 Every dollar spent has returned at 4.49 So just trading on this day alone in the Futures Market with one contract, you would be up 12. Grand This is a very, very bullish day. So I I know a lot of people out there.

they try to teach and Guru and Furu when it comes to the market and the economy in their own way. I'm not that good at it I'm just good at numbers. so I'm like okay I'll show you the exact numbers of the situation and how I interpret it I Know some people kind of go with their gut feel and they scream Bear Flag and boom flag and it's most fun to make fun of them. but in reality I like to back up my own trades with just actual math kind of playing it as if you knew the math of like Blackjack or poker I Honestly think poker is by far the best analogy to also talk about systematic trading.

but anyway, every single day I post the seasonal bias of the overall Market If there's demand for individual ones like I want the seasonal bias of whatever Tesla If you want that, let me know. I can start posting that there as well I mean I already have the program written I just need to switch out what I'm testing it on so it would be uh, not difficult at all. but anyway, Macquares.locals.com if you want this, uh, just put in the code goonie and you'll get a free month Gooney Gooney Gooney All right, let's go back to the three minute. there.

Msgm is now already up 82 and it's halted again. This thing is just ripping I mean let's look up the or text data on it I have no position on it I Think it's gonna end very very poorly for like there's gonna be bag holders on it. but it's hilarious Msgm, let's see what they have. Um, okay.

overview Overview: It has to be a low float. uh, market cap. It's only 36 million Shares Outstanding. 1.7 million.

This is a micro float. There are just not many shares. So remember, uh, shares on loan? A hundred thousand. and that already means that the short interest is like this is just a low float.

Squeeze Play It's like a Fomo. It's a Fomo play that people started buying it and then the few shorts that were in there got screwed in because there's uh, not many shares that started going. hey like this is hilarious. The cost to borrow is 344.

the utilization is almost maxed out. It's a micro float fomo, squeeze play. Um, which is fun. You can make a lot of money on it, but you could also lose a lot of money money which is why I Would highly recommend.

If you're engaging in it, you want to keep your risk as close by as you can like. if you bought this morning, have you bought in here? move your wrist to break even just so it doesn't cost you anything like get out of that danger zone because this thing is just a high flyer and you can make a lot of money. But you could also lose a lot of money. So as soon as you reasonably can, if you get lucky and it breaks in your way, move your trailing stop market close to break even and then as it keeps going, just move your trailing stop loss up with you.

Just keep moving. The chains, keep moving the chains. That's all you have to do Folks trading is Easy Buy Low Sell high sell High Buy Low Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezies Gonna be a lot of bag holders on Msgm? Yeah, probably. but my goal in here is to make sure that no one within the goonie Community is a bag holder.

Which is exactly why as soon as you reasonably can move your stop loss to break even, it's an active trade. This isn't an investment. It's not an investment. Mullen's not an investment GTI was an investment.

Clove was an investment. There's so many things that people are thinking like as soon as they put money on, they're married to it for life. That's That's not what this situation is. When you get these like penny stocks that pop out of nowhere, there's an absurd statistical chance that it's going to end in a dump fashion.

It'll be a pump. It'll be a dump. Don't get caught in the dump. You can trade them.

Have fun trading it. make a lot of money trading it. There's a lot of people who make a ton of money trading penny stocks. It's not exactly my style just because people get pissed off when you short and the main Edge in playing Penny socks is shorting them.

But you can make a ton of money. To the upside, you just have to protect yourself. That's the major major thing. Protect yourself, bro.

Come on. Come on. What? What? I Like penny stocks? Oh I mean if you're I know people who make millions a year playing penny stocks, it's totally possible. Um, it's not common, it's they're kind of outliers in the situation.

80 90 of penny stock Traders End up losing money. but the that leftover percentage that makes money, they can make a serious amount of money a serious amount of money. Um, long-term thoughts on Disney Bullish. Long-term thoughts on Oxy I Think it's dangerous to be a bull on Petroleum in the long term I'm talking 20, 30, 40 years out just because the energy sector is changing I Honestly think one of the best things our world can do from the terms of technology related to energy is actually look more into nuclear power.

I think right now there's a lot of fear-mongering related to it because of whatever three. Three Mile Island Chernobyl all that stuff. but I think that's where our holy. that's the 10 a.m report right there.

Team: Uh, must have not come in. Well the Spy just dropped a dollar like it was nothing. Whoa. Batman Whoa.

Batman That was crazy. What was the report that came out? Uh, the PMI report came out at 10 A.M We have reports at 8, 30, 9, 45, 10 A.m Uh, it just keeps going today. Today's nuts. Oh, we got the Uh ISM Manufacturing job openings Quicks and construction spending and the market did not like that.

Holy crap. A lot of jobs data. A lot of jobs data. So let's see how the government is lying to us today.

I think I'm becoming like a curmudgeon of an old man. Like the government, they suck. They're lying to us where everyone's just talking about. Tom Brady Right now, they're not talking about jobs Now that Tom Brady Requ like retired is, Does he impact the job market? Uh, no.

Uh Kurt Gavin I'm gonna find the information for you U.S Job openings Rose to 11.01 million in December From 10.44 million Tinder to swipe left on eight percent of its staff and fired them. Um, Okay, so the job openings came in higher than expected and obviously the market reacted pretty negatively to it. Msgm is on its fourth haul of the day I Want to say fourth haul of the day over here on Msgm. All right.

I Am checking out other things: High Flying day. We have a high flying day team I've done one trade today, one trade only I Just did the classic open range breakout because it went in line with the daily Market structure and went in line with the EMAs and went in line with seasonality and then also went in line with just like the chaos of the day I'll say so. we'll give it a 4 out of 5 Star setup and it ended up working out for me Matt Fight me I'd rather not I I just rather not. You know you know you know Tyler Unless you want to fight in Dynasty Warriors 6.

if you have a Dynasty Warriors account or the game and you want to fight, we could fight there. LOL Best game on the PS2 Dude Dynasty Warriors was that was where it was at I Remember I had Dynasty Warriors 3 that was my first Dynasty Warriors game. It's a rare game I Don't think many people know about it, but dude, that was my game. These hands are rated M for Matt That one's a good one.

Uh, dinosaur. Warriors Three was your first. Yeah, we all remember our first dude. the Market's getting shmh dude.

they did not like how many job openings there were. We have a very tight job market I think there's 1.7 job openings per person looking for a job which is kind of telling me like why is why are people not returning to the job market and then once again the curmudgeon in me is kind of coming out and it makes me wonder if it truly makes me wonder if like did so many people kind of get used to the government assistance that we got during The Rona period where they're like well I get paid way way way more than I did working and like now why aren't we seeing that return Like there's so many job openings there's 1.7 job openings per person looking for a job and that also it someone explains why unemployment's so low so it's more of like a labor force issue I don't know. Kind of interesting to get into brother. the five minute on the S P Futures at 10 o'clock candle touched, the high of date and the low day it's a high volatility day.

This is the day as of now where I'm going for little scalps until Jerome Powell Daddy Pal starts speaking at 2 30 PM ET and of course we'll be streaming the whole thing of course of course of course. Um, obviously shout out to Brick House check it out Brickhouse use the code Matt 15 off but I want to switch out the pin? cheat the pinned uh comment I was gonna say the pin tweet but the PIN comment uh, join up, become a goonie and there's a free version so everyone in here should be signing up. There's a free version. there is a premium version.

You could get the premium version for free by putting the code goonie for a month. Check it out, see if you find enough value in it. I've been doing more and more and more stuff in Locals so I think you'll like it if you have any ideas. if you're like hey man, like we love that you have all the data we need the data on XYZ Let me know.

I'm more than happy to put it in there. but uh, at minimum, go to that link, click on it macross.locals.com and at least to get into the free version where I still post stuff uh CSA AI thought so AI the company is obviously kind of rocking off of the current. AI Trend You lost it though right now you have to wait for a pullback. Um, this rocket left without you and that's fine.

Like it makes sense why it's running right now. Ai is hot hot hot as hot as the tamale. But you miss this opportunity. It's okay.

you're not going to get every trade just because you miss one that doesn't mean to chase it. I mean look at how much the stock has run, it's up 87. That's not your opportunity to invest. You might be doing some sort of you're like okay I want to sell call Premium because it's run so much and the IV's jacked up and you could collect the premium.

So would I invest in AI right now in this stock right now? No, it's just run too much I Want to pull back? Is there an active trade here? Yeah, the IV is Juiced You can sell put premium or you could. you could probably sell put end call Premium just because everything's so Juiced I'd be more favored to selling like a call Credit spread to protect myself so there is opportunity here. but I wouldn't just be buying the stock right now I Think that is, um, statistically not the favorable position. But if there's a pullback, that's a different story.

Might be something worthwhile to invest into off the top of my head. I Don't know much about the fundamentals of AI as a company C3 dot AI but obviously it has direct exposure to the current boom in the world of AI If you're looking for other Securities other companies other equities that have exposure to AI you're going to want to look at kind of the Upstream Hardware such as AMD Nvidia If you want to just trade that semiconductor processing chip sector, you would look at the ETF SMH This has exposure to all the main semiconductor plays. So if you don't want to pick the individual company, but you like the sector, look at SMH Um, other companies that are currently tied to AI Microsoft invested billions and billions and billions into chat. GPT So there's exposure there.

Obviously Google has some of its own AI but it's falling to the Wayside in my humble opinion. Facebook AKA Meta is really really missing out on AI I Think they've put too much into the basket of betting on VR and I Think they're really missing out on AI especially because they have a massive user base. They track everything you do on Facebook on Instagram that is a very valuable, unique data set that I think Facebook could actually have some of the world's most advanced Ai and the fact that they're using their their resources, their human resources to really focus on. VR I'm not necessarily against VR I Still think that has a bright future, but I Think they need to do VR and AI together? Um I mean I don't know Zuck is already AI You think it'd be easier for him? You think it would be easier for him? Um, halted again.

Is this the fifth halt of the day on Msgm right now? If I was in Msgm, my risk would be 27. Whatever 75 I'd be risking this recent low, low, low low. and if it pushes again, uh, be careful it might do on when the thing on halts, it might do a downside Gap fill to 39.22 but if I were an Msgm, my trailing stop loss where I would pull the rib cord and get out of my long position would be whatever 27.75 But expect crazy volatility here I'm personally not playing it I don't care to play it I have enough going on with the overall Market in my life, for those of you who've maybe not been here in a minute, you might be thinking Matt what's going on with your life that's a great question I appreciate you checking in on me on an emotional basis. But a lot of things are going on in my life.

namely the fact that I try to rescue a cat like I reached out to a rescue that have cats that they're going to euthanize and I was like hey, here's my application I'm Matt I have a completely real girlfriend We have an apartment that the cat could be our roommate, we wouldn't even expect it to pay rent. We'll even buy it food like it's going to be sick like just the Three Amigos hanging out. and then I got a response from the cat rescue that basically said go yourself So another way to say this is I've gotten to this point in my life where I thought I've achieved something but I'm literally so low on the achievement success totem pole that I'm not even a qualified caretaker for a cat. We're talking about animals that are essentially like self-sufficient I wasn't trying to adopt a pony in my apartment I was trying to get a cat.

Those things that sleep for like 20 hours a day and like just kind of do their own thing and like no, no, no, you're not equipped to be the caretaker of this feline So that's where we're at. That is where we're at one of these days. Go find a cat. Plenty of Strays out there.

That's kind of my going idea at this point is when I'm just Meandering the streets of the Big The Big Apple. if I see a cat I might just capture it but also it's gonna like run away from me. They're fast. Man, those little micro Panthers those little micro Panthers So that's where my life's at.

Uh, phase halting all day. Is it halting I mean phase from a fundamental perspective is an awful company. All it does is burn cash If you look at phases chart like the FaZe Clan those Gamers um good for them for trying to get into like legitimate business but trash trash of a company I mean look at this thing. This is when this broke down from 1647 or we're a gap down here.

At 10, you could have been short at 1664. If you missed that, you could have been short various times pretty much all above eight dollars and it's now trading at 89 cents. This is something that you're kind of silly to go long on it. Like just everything from a fundamental company perspective about this company is imploding.

I Know they're massively popular streamers Gamers They're good at gaming. It's nothing against them. As humans, it's nothing against their gaming ski