Foreign Foreign. Thank you Thank you Brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. Welcome back, Welcome back Welcome to Matt Core's live. Do I deserve a demerit today for being late? I do.

But I have an excuse I don't know if it's a good one at all, but I have an excuse and I appreciate you putting up with my tardiness and it was prompted by the fact that I just didn't feel like starting. That's it I was standing here I was crushing some espresso I saw that the time was 8 15 and I simply did not want to start, just didn't feel like it. So give me all the demerits you want I'll collect them I'll have them I'll wear them proudly but that's it I Just I truly did not want to start so I didn't and that's how I run my life. That's what's been going on and so I just started trolling people in chat instead.

it seems like a better way to start my morning than doing this. So five minute delay but able to fight with people in chat more than happy to do it. and I can't even say what happened again in the future because it probably will because that's how I do things. This is the Matt show.

my name is literally on the show so I kind of just do what I want and that's what. two Demers All right, let's not get crazy with it. I'll take one demerit because I deserve that, but two demerits. Let's you guys are getting a little crazy little.

let's not get over his house. I I Get that you have a little bit of power right now over me because of the whole demerit situation. But to do two demerits I Feel like that's a slight abuse of power? And let's not. Let's not make this an adversarial relationship.

Thus far, it's been a bit playful. it's been a bit jolly. It's uh, a fun time across the board. Let's not.

let's not push it to the point where it isn't a joke anymore and we start to all fight. You know, bro, miss the one trillion you missed the one trillion and the 50 demerits I missed the one trillion I don't think I'd be able to come from that I don't think I'd be able to come from that. but hey here I am with the demerit. There you folks are without your gold stars.

So here we are. Why so early? Emmanuel uh honestly was to talk with you. Uh, we're happy that you're here and you're probably wondering why are we early and I could tell that because you you're literally asking me why we were early and uh, the chat and I have something we'd like to talk with you about. Um, we don't want you.

Well, first of all, you should know that you're loved. We're all literally your lovers and it pains us to say this, but your addiction to watching cartoons has been ripping us apart. This is your intervention and we really, really need you to stop. We really really need you to stop doing that.

I'm not fired right? Sounds like you're fired. Me: We're not firing you. We want you to know. We just figured we should start early, chat back me up on this.

Remember, we all talked about this yesterday that we were going to talk with Emmanuel about his TV viewing habits and you're you're making, you're making it tough on us and we all wanted to calmly tell you that we're we're moving forward and That's all folks, which cartoon is the first crazy thing that popped in my head I don't know I should have come up some like with something absurd. like the fact that you keep eating like kangaroo every night for dinner is like starting to bother us I should have gone with a weird food habit if I could redo it now sometimes I don't know. early in the morning my improv isn't so good. but if I could redo it like if we could rewind time if you believe in time, uh I probably would have gone with a weird like food eating joke.

be like the fact that you eat lizards every single Saturday morning it's starting to bother us like something like that. I Don't know. Maybe next time maybe we'll try it again tomorrow. Probably not because I don't think I'm streaming tomorrow morning I might be streaming tomorrow afternoon, but not tomorrow morning.

I Have to go to this fancy schmancy Bloomberg event. Uh so I think that's from 8 to 11 which happens to be roughly when we stream here. so I'll be with you in Spirit uh if you guys want I could I don't know, you could just re-watch this entire stream I don't know and just pretend that it's Friday or something like that I don't know. we'll figure it out.

but folks I Hope you're having a phenomenal morning I Hope you had a phenomenal evening I hope you got up and crushed back. Did I do no, no back in buys? Yeah I did I'm losing my mind today I did do back and buy so I hope you guys got up and basically are starting to make it look like a manta ray is on your back I mean honestly I Want my goal with lifting right now, especially in my back muscles is when I go to an aquarium in a coat I Want them to accuse me of stealing a manta ray? Be like sir, you are not allowed to leave the premises with a manta ray. Why have you attached a manta ray to your back? It needs water. That's my goal.

Will it be achievable? I don't know, but that's where I'm at. It has nothing to do with health, it really has nothing to do with Aesthetics It seems to me like it would just be a funny bit if I'm at an aquarium and they accuse me of stealing a manta ray so that's where we're at. Uh, you just need a little trend with your protein? Yeah I Feel like I need a lot of trend I Feel like if I have a lot of trend and then enough like creatine to choke a horse I'll probably get where I need to I should also stop with my very poor diet and my excessive intake of alcohol I Feel like that would help as well, but that feels like a tomorrow problem if you're being honest. I bought more FRC 60 calls for 119.24 my D-gen play of the Year Robert The odds are stacked against you but they're not zero I hope you absolutely crush it I hope you absolutely crush it I miss payday Friday and you could just throw the payday out the window I was just fun in general.

Uh, we could bring something like that back if you guys. Well, the concept here is by the time we get to Fridays I Feel like people are a little bit tired with the market. Uh, so if you guys want and this has been Something Brewing in my brain for a while is I kind of want to Pivot the Friday stream to be like a little bit longer of one, but like we're just screwing off playing games together. Whatever.

I Really actually want to gamble? Whether it's poker or blackjack or roulette? Uh, obviously we could check in on the market I Could go over the major news, but my concept is to make Fridays uh, much more of like a whatever. A typical stream where like I don't know. there's a crowd of people and we're all just like screwing off doing something. Um so I Thought about that and it sounds like some people are kind of into it.

Um so I thought that would be fun. Honestly, if today is boring, we could even start playing some like roulette or something today. I think the money hit the account I had to set up like a bed MGM account. Uh so I think we should be good.

more gambling. Stock market is is not enough. Exactly profit. You get it.

Gambling and gambling. Uh what does it? steal? A hermit crab? Way easier to take care of. Steal a hermit crab. Oh, you're talking about the manta ray on my back type of a situation.

Well, we'll see folks in a mere minute and a half. We're gonna get it the GDP report. so we should probably start with that after the GDP report comes out. I Want to go over all the earnings? Meta crush it? Then we have to talk about Southwest comcats.

Deutsche Bank Caterpillar. We have an update on the Tucker Carlson Fox situation. We have an update on First Republic Bank. We have an update on the debt ceiling with Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden and then also some crazy things that JP Morgan and Walmart are currently doing with AI.

So I think it's going to be kind of an interesting day. It is. and if I'm wrong I don't know. maybe you guys could just all do me a favor and be like yeah, it was like obviously 100 amazing.

So with that being said, did I do this all right? Today we're loading. Uh oh, Things are loading. loading, loading loading loading loading. Why is the chat not coming on the bill? Show me where in the bill that it says we got anything? In the process, we simply go back to the spending levels we were at four months ago.

We're four months ago, did a number of new Borders cops get hired in that process? The only people that's openly and willingly and we've watched what happens in crime. All right. Anyway, GDP report awaiting it was coming out fast in the house and what has passed this big comparison there that's not making it come back. Great to have you on.

We'll figure out a number GDP number coming up at the at the bottom of the hour. so thank you very much once again. Get Ready Get Ready Get ready. Thank you very much Senator Let's get to Uh Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready S P 500 on the Futures Market Crap Face has been living his best life.

Economic data: Rick The numbers Rick The numbers Oh since November of 2021 GDP First look at first quarter 1.1 A Miss We're expecting a number closer to two percent. 1.1 is sequentially. that follows 2.6 1.1 is the lightest since it was negative in the second quarter of 22. if you look at the Uh, given a little bit back.

but overall, we're still pretty great of a number no matter how you slice it three Whopper of a number bus. Going back to Uh the second quarter of 21 when it was 12.1 and if we look at the GDP price index, four percent four percent. Here is the rub the fly in the ointment, we're expecting 3.7 in the rear view mirror, it was 3.9 In this series, it is Bumpy because uh, we want to continually move lower. This moves out of that sequence and remember the high water mark was the second quarter of 22.

At nine percent, that was the highest since 81. So great. Granted, when you look at four percent versus nine percentage, but sequentially and GDP down lower establish comes down. Can you expenditure quarter over quarter 4.9 Similar, 4.4 in rear view mirror expecting 4.7 4.9 is actually the highest Right Back to the rapid, unscheduled disassembly.

Excuse me. 5.6 was the first quarter 22. it moved out of sequence because the high was six percent a year before that in second quarter of 21.. So we see that the Q and TDP first read 1.1 versus 2.

So that's the main reporter this morning. Right now it's on your screen settings. they've moved higher. They have moved higher.

and to me that is the 45 numbers you see pre-opening equities. Uh, they've had some volatility in the Dow futures, but they're basically about the same price place as they were before. The numbers were a little bit on this, uh, trying to bounce right now, but overall, the pre-market session's been pretty strong, so we're still net ahead from yesterday's close interest rates. The peak of inflations in the rear view mirror that delivers Rick just knows what's up.

He really does. Your bank is comfortable within the near term, while higher for longer does its damage in the near term as well. Andrew Back to you. Okay, Rick Stay with us I Want to talk to Steve Leesman right now? Let's see if you're a former Economic advisor? Of course, in the Trump Administration from a National Economic Council Chief Economist he's now SMBC Nico Securities America Chief Economist Steve I Want to get your reaction first to the data or um, detect the most contemporary data first, which is the jobless claims and again, the job market won't quit.

Um, we thought we'd have sort of reached a new level in the 250 range back down to 230 and the continuing claims also ticked down if I saw that correctly. Um, Moving on. Uh, Rick was right to put some uh pronunciation emphasis on that three seven. that's your consumer.

Yeah, that number was front loaded as to January and we'll get some more data to Mars to what happened at the end of the quarter. So I close that 404 40. we're currently trading at 406.60 second quarter. We got it right now.

I Wasn't all that concerned. There were some negative numbers, some positive numbers on intellectual property. But the real thing I Want to talk to you about uh Andrew is the sexiest part of Economics which is inventories I don't know if we have that uh word I made on I had prepared on inventories I think it updated. You'll see there's been incredible volatility in inventories and I think this is still an echo or or a a wave from the pandemic it is.

um, it took away 2.3 percentage points. From there it is, You can see if you look to the left of the chart, there inventory is representation until you get to the pandemic period and inventories are creating massive swings in. GDP We got another one. We had a negative one, this time down 2.3 percent.

And so that's a big factor guys in what's going on right now? Um I Don't think by the way, this is a huge Miss for a lot of economists. they did bring their numbers down during the week. Um, and I don't know that that was reflected in the consensus averages that were out there. Andrew Okay, thank you.

Steve Uh, bringing uh Joe Lavornia Dana Peterson's also joining us. Right now. There's Rick the Andrew the PC the quarter, the quarter revision upper Vision that Rick talked about. My guess is that has to do with revisions to probably January maybe February And the arithmetic works out that the quarterly profile is a little bit higher.

All you need to know about inflation came out a couple of weeks ago in the CPI core CPI is slowing headline is moving down quite sharply in place. We're going to get lower rents which are a third of the core uh PC or sorry core CPI This inflation Bugaboo is passed. We need to worry about growth. The inflation.

The leading indicators of growth. Andrew Tell us that the economy is weakening and will continue to weaken and recession is still ahead of us. Recession still ahead of us I Guess it was seven hours ago Elon Musk Taking his Twitter Saying the data with which the Federal Reserve is making decisions has too much latency. But when you look at the pieces that we have been getting yes, the economy has been slowing.

We did see my algorithm, but that flagged in February and we're probably going to see that in March just given what we saw in retail sales and I agree. Yes, we are seeing a slowing economy. We're probably going to descend into a recession. It's not going to be long um, or that deep, but recession nonetheless.

But I'm still very concerned about inflation. Core measures are still very elevated and very far away from the Fed's two percent. Target And is your sense therefore that Jay Powell is going to continue to uh, keep his foot on I Don't know if we should use this analogy. The Neck of the economy? Well, are we not allowed to use that technology right? Skydiving is just not a free fall.

It's a controlled descent and the FED is conducting a controlled uh descent. It's not necessarily. I Wouldn't think of it as putting your foot on the neck of the economy. It's slowing down demand so that you can address inflation.

The FED can't do anything about the supply side drivers of inflation, but it is doing something about demand. We've already seen housing activity slip. I Think we can come up with a better knowledge and um, the next two to drop really is services. and I think that how much funnier people see uh, employment.

How much better would that be if they like really came at us with better analogy. Like imagine beating the out of someone in a back alley. That's what the Fed's doing to the economy right now I was talking about yesterday on your show. Um, and look, I'm a little, uh, on the fence of whether or not we have a recession or not.

but let me just throw this idea out. It's the most talked about recession in the history of Humankind. Everybody knows or thinks it's coming. And the idea is, recessions tend to happen because you have shocks to the economy When I see inventories go down.

What I see is I see businesses right-sizing their businesses and the amount of goods they have in the storeroom and on the shelves for what they think is less economic activity and therefore they should not be shocked by less economic activity and I'll just throw it out of Joe I Get that the FED is is tightening, tightening, tightening strongly. Um, but I'm just wondering if businesses prepare for it appropriately. It's not a shock. maybe we have less growth, but that doesn't mean we have have a recession.

The thing the problem I have with that Steve that that narrative rather is that the weighted average borrowing cost for U.S households is at the highest. In over 20 years, you've got mortgage rates, credit card rates, auto rates, personal loan rates that are at the highest reading. since so one, unlike the tightening cycle above 406 when there was a bond conundrum, rates have risen massively. So we're getting a lot of constriction coming on the household side.

the housing. Market's already in recession. Manufacturing is in recession. There might be a shock, but to me Steve if there is a shock, a psychological shock that makes it a deep recession, not a mild recession and my opinion is the Fed.

his making a classic mistake of of focusing on inflation. Inflation expectations are contained, but to me the trend is weaker. It's like the economy's immune system has softened and it makes us prone to shocks. Could even be geopolitical.

But to me, recession still has to be the Baseline call. Do I get a final word Dana Joe Rick and Steve No. My concern is even if you have a shallow recession, you have stagnation. On the other side, Give Rick the final word.

What the he said Can I get a final word We will give him a final word. Is that a time we have an opportunity? But give Rick the fun. What the Friedrich huh? All right when we come back some key metrics to watch: When Amazon reports its first quarter results the top analysts and this is CNBC give Rick the I know uh Andrew sorted Andrew Ross Organ So silly. Uh, did you guys see that this guy's chilling Italy they were right there chilling Italy to all of us I'll make it a little bit bigger.

look at Italy Show I Bet the entire government's paying him off so this gets some screen time Italy Show Just wanted to point that out. They think they could sneak it past us, but they can't. We're too astuted viewers. We're on our game this morning.

Um, so yeah folks. I'm never gonna ask you it for important tweets, but for tweets, definitely drop this a like right now. let's get it in front of: Sorkin We gotta stand up for a boy Rick if we don't stand up for Rick Who's gonna stand up for Rick No one else has Rick's back the way we do. we have Rick's back folks.

Look to the person above you in chat, look to the person below you in chat. That's who has Rick's back. If we don't have his back, no one has this back. We definitely have to have his back.

In this scenario, give Rick a raise. I Think we should make a petition that Rick should have to do all all of the things that CNBC like he should just have to work 24 7 do all segments, all interviews, all work, all producing all editing, all sound control. I think CNBC should just become the Rick show and I think that's what would really hap happen like help out their viewership. But anyway, here's what happened on the news.

Obviously it dropped at 8 30 right here. Uh, down, slightly. not massive here. I'll go to the three minute.

Maybe you could see it a little bit better right here. 8 30 slight drop. Nothing too too crazy, especially because in the overnight session we've had a decent recovery. You could see this better in the 15 minute here.

So we closed out the day at 16 o'clock And because Meta absolutely destroyed their earnings I mean right here Meta is now up. 13 medic closed out the day at 209.40 and it is currently trading at 237. Uh, Meta up 13 crushing it which is essentially saving the overall market and it very much saved the NASDAQ the NASDAQ up even more. You could see what happened right when Meta's numbers came out, so overnight session pretty strong.

Now with the GDP report. now with the jobless claims, it's taking a little bit of a knock, but it is so important to note that from Market close to now, we're still still in the green for the overall market. So I want to talk about Meta just because once they destroyed it hello, Are we coming back? Rick Give us Rick that's not Rick That's Joe Probably the busiest day this morning, including some Dow components like Caterpillar beating endless expectations. Caterpillar Beat came out this morning and revenue a boosted.

We need more extra spending help Drive profit up 31 over there. that was up a lot more uh, earlier than it is now that the Dows maintained its gains. Honeywell We love you in Revenue estimate. It's also raised its full year sales and adjusted or anything.

maybe took up the slack for Caterpillar American Airlines matching expectations. For the bottom line, the revenue fell a bit short CEO Last Kiss American Sucks. Uh, the show in the last hour. In terms of profitability, that's four quarters in a row revenues.

And it's It's two billion dollars in a pre-tax better year over year So as we look forward I see continued strength and demand record revenues that are projected in the in the second quarter and that's all good for us in Southwest Kind of a weird idea I Never knew that those were his like mannerisms and whatnot. but uh, it makes me more confident that the company is going to die An interview next hour on Squawk on the street. oh that's Southwest Southwest does not have any good will they? Definitely because of the whole holiday debacles if you guys remember that. but their earnings were pretty weird.

Amazon Reports results after the battle tonight. Stay tuned, you're watching a squat box on CNBC All right, we don't need that anymore. but what we do need is for all of us to get a little bit more prep for the day. So what you need to know is as of now now because of the GDP report.

If you're joining, we start a little early. GDP for Q1 was expected to come in at one two percent. It came in at 1.1 so it was off by 0.9 Almost 50 percent so we are still net ahead. Here's a look at the Futures Market but ever since the report came out, we did take a little bit of a hit.

Now the reason we're up so much in the overnight session. This is when we're all sleeping, getting like the doctor recommended eight hours. The reason everything's up is because Meta is doing so phenomenally well. How is a I want to bring up? this is American this is Southwest Getting murked this morning Southwest down 4.9 So obviously we have a lot of earnings to get into stock futures rise.

Thursday as Traders cheer strong Meta results the lizard Man himself Mr Mark Zuckerberg saving the world in some strange comic book I guess Switcheroo Where the Lizard Man villain somehow like I guess like maybe it's a the enemy of your enemies your friend. Maybe he's like yeah, I'm the villain here but also I have nothing to be the villain of if the entire economy crashes. So for this particular quarter for this particular push, Zuckerberg he saved the market for the time being Dow s p Nasdaq all in the green coming down slightly but still in the green but coming down because of the GDP report: oil getting absolutely murked recently, it's dropped almost ten dollars yields not really doing too much. So this was the big report of the morning.

GDP Rose at 1.1 percent Pace in the first quarter, they were expecting two percent. That's the number. Uh, just so you know, I do want to call it out because I won't be able to stream tomorrow morning tomorrow PC Before it comes out at 8 30 a.m What is my robot doing that is trading so much right now I'm getting murked anyway. PC Report comes out at 8 30 a.m an hour before the Market opens tomorrow Friday April 28th.

So uh, the way we're having volatility and craziness right now, that will once again happen tomorrow. Just so everyone knows, we also have other earnings After the market closes today, you get Amazon you get Intel you get Snapchat you get cloudflare. all important to pay attention to. and before the Market opens tomorrow, you get Exxon Chevron So we're going to get more of an update from the oil World which they've probably been crushing it lately, so if we rewind a little bit, this is why everything is doing way better than it was yesterday.

Mega Shares pop 12 after company reports first sales increase in four quarters. Issues: optimistic guidance across the board: they annihilated. Every metric was a solid metric and every even their future guidance was solid. The earnings per share was 220, the expectation was 203, the revenue was 28.65 billion.

The Estimation: The expected estimation was 27.65 daily active users 2.04 billion They were expecting 2.01 monthly activity, users came in line at 299, and the average revenue per user was 962 when they were expecting 9 30. So everything either matched or beat and then also on. better than that is the fact that their future guidance was increased. This is from the Lizard Man's villain turned hero this quarter.

Uh, this is some commentary from Zuckerberg himself. We had a good quarter and our community continues to grow, becoming more efficient so we can build better products faster and put ourselves in a stronger position to deliver our long-term Vision. This is all on the concept that the past couple quarters because it was rough recently. this is his year of quote-unquote efficiency.

They've been cutting jobs left and right, basically trimming all the fat, you know, hitting the gym, doing a couple crunches, getting rid of the fat around the company that they did not need, and they're kind of just hunkering down on their core business. But still. With that being said, there are certain sub sectors that are considerable losses. For example, Meta's Reality Lab unit that is the VR and AR.

It brought in 339 million in sales, and it's still at an operating loss of 3.99 billion. So they're still throwing a lot of money at AR and VR and it just hasn't returned anything quite yet. Who knows, maybe years down the road. Maybe this was the smartest play of them all.

But on top of it, I Am reading this morning that it said the word AI or I guess the letters AI I believe 64 times in their earnings. So it is. This is just another tech company that is clearly going to try to benefit off of AI and if I would I mean I would strongly argue. Out of all companies in the world, Meta was one of the ones that was kind of like a no duh to do it.

The amount of proprietary data sets that they have. How were they already not in the world of AI Uh, so they're saying it a lot the way now almost every company saying it as a buzzword. but I Think Meta would actually be able to do some pretty impressive things just because of the unique position they're in. Meta said the total expenses for 2023 will be in the range of 86 to 90 billion.

I Highlighted that just because I thought that was crazy. Imagine that a business that's your expenses. that's your overhead 86 to 90 billion. Their expenses are more than the GDP of some small like countries, some small Nations And that's just what they need to run for a year.

I Mean these people have no problem spending money. no problem whatsoever. Southwest Posts wider than expected Loss is total of holiday crisis stretches into 2023 so I don't know if any of you personally had to deal with this whatsoever and I don't want to I don't know, give you horrendous flashbacks. but Southwest had a lot of like technical issues over booking issues.

um I guess even employment issues at the end of the year and now we're still seeing some pain from it right here. They had a loss of 27 cents and they expected loss was only 23. so wider than expected and in terms of Revenue 5.71 billion and the expected was 5.73 So Southwest that's why it's down. Four point, Whatever.

five, Four point, seven, five percent this morning is because they missed on top and bottom line: Uh, so not so good for Southwest On the flip side of it, we did have some pretty solid beads. Comcast speeds estimates despite showing broader growth. higher peacock losses so Comcast 92 versus 82, 29.69 versus 29.3 So Comcast that's not one that really. We end up talking about a lot in here.

but I just didn't want to get you the vibe that they beat. Deutsche Bank logs 11th straight quarterly Profit reveals Job Cuts So at first it was in the world of Finance where or not excuse me in the world of tech that a lot of these players were cutting jobs. it was very Tech heavy. And that makes sense because during I don't know the Absurd growth of tech Circa 2021 and really, even before it, we saw a massive amount of hiring.

So I think they just put the cart before the horse. But recently over the past quarter we're seeing this concept of job Cuts actually spreading into the world of Finance as well. and now another one of that is Deutsche Bank So more Job Cuts There clearly not like I wouldn't call it a contagion because the job Market's still really tight. I Believe there is 1.7 job openings per one person looking for a job, so I wouldn't say that it's like that type of a scenario, but it is interesting to see that it wasn't exclusive to.

Tech We are now seeing more and more Finance Firms layoff players uh, Caterpillars First Quarter profit Rises On resilient demand and pricing I Mean you guys are starting to get the vibe. There's once in a while we're seeing pretty big losses such as like Southwest but a lot of these other ones are actually doing pretty well. Five things to know before that: Bell goes dingity ding ding ding ding today Thursday April 27th Tech versus tank This is the question of can the failure of First Republic Bank continue to eclipse the massive success success we're seeing in Tech Microsoft be Google beat Google Also doing a 70 billion dollar share buyback and then we now also have Meta beating. I mean you're gonna go four for four when Apple reports and they be um I would assume at this it would be crazy if they didn't because we're seeing so much success in other Tech players we also have Amazon So I guess we might end up going five for five.

Uh, but right now the first three all crush it. Microsoft crushed it Google AKA Alphabet crush it and beta crush it. So world. The tech world right now is looking pretty solid.

The question is, is, what about the rest of the world And yesterday even though we were coming like coming off of great success at that point, we didn't know about Meta yet. But yesterday, the market still got crushed. and it kind of relates to what's going on with the banking sector. and there's also some geopolitical concerns and we're going to be getting into that in a second.

Metaphysics, Meta crushed it. Uh, so shout out maybe maybe the lizard man is our friend, Maybe he's a lizard man that comes in peace. Is that something that maybe we need to think about? Maybe we need to consider First Republic Problems This is what's I don't know. keeping a drag on everything.

So I don't know I do think it's important so maybe we should give this a listen. Hello, Hey, let's start with the news: Hugh what's the latest on First Republic hey Kelly great to be with you So we were able to shed some light on on the approach that first Republic's advisors would have in trying to save the bank which is essentially uh, you know as as uh David reported on Tuesday The plan was basically to convince the banks who already put in 30 billion into first Republican to forward deposits to once again help out by bit by overpaying essentially for bonds that are in first Republic's balance sheet. So paying higher than market value which you know on its face was a tough ask. yeah.

And so my question, uh you know to the advisors was why would the banks go for it and the answer is you know the uh, coercion that was uh said to happen is basically uh, the pitch. You know if you don't do this now and and take a hit, uh, to the tune of several billion dollars in total for all the banks. Uh, then when this thing goes into receivership, uh, the FDIC special assessment fees that you're gonna have to pay are could be the tune of 30 billion dollars, right? Financial interest to save First Republic Now that was first Republic pitch After you reported that story, the share is absolutely tanked. So if you're the big Banks you're going.

It's obvious that the market hates the idea of us getting more involved here. They already feel probably like they've been tainted by giving the 30 billion and now there's questions about whether they can even get that back. And now they're They're kind of looking at this like a lose-lose Well, you know I would have to say there are a couple observations. This is the kind of brinkmanship that needs to happen before.

Uh, you know the players are finally impelled to move. uh, earlier today you know uh David also mentioned, uh, the idea that the government might be reluctant to coerce. Uh, you know the the Big Banks to actually act And if that's the case, you know the conversations I had with Bankers the advisors. the First Republic was we need the government.

We need them to actually Corral all these players to. Just like in 2008 and 2009, get them get the CEOs in a room together so we can beat them into doing the right thing. And if they don't have the guys beat them into doing the right thing, the plan is going to actually get to fruition. Not just that, but look at what's happening in the marketplace.

Even though FRC keep struggling, we see pack. West We see the others acting resilient. Maybe we could describe it as that that's not going to Galvanize either the private or the public sector to come to First Republic's rescue here because these are trial balloons. If it was bringing down the whole industry and the whole markets, that'd be a different story.

I I think I agree what you're saying, You know if there's bifurcation? If it seems like First Republic is isolated in this case, then uh, then I Would it gives more ammunition to Regulators to say like let this play out at least and they want it Sounds like to show that they are willing to let Banks fail. I mean wouldn't you say they won't even be explicit about what exactly is the situation with Deposit Insurance Well, you know they want optionality, you know and they want to avoid the worst case scenarios. And if it is possible that this can be dissolved without a any whiff of government and you know, bail out government assistance. uh and and private.

Market Solution Market Bouncing back right now from the GDP report, it's been great reporters, You know? Yeah, I mean certainly the sense I got from uh you know the the advisors is that they want to create a sense of urgency. They want this to happen soon. and there's a couple reasons for that. one is: you know this is a degrading brother.

You know there are. There is a talent flight. There is, uh, you know the possibility that in the future quarters, they're just going to have quarterly losses. They're going to have uh, an upside down balance sheet if they don't get this fixed.

So there's really a lot hanging on this. and and they don't want to let this yes already, it's been degenerate quite some time. Binary event: Uh, Disney takes DeSantis to court. This is all about like they're arguing that because DeSantis they spoke out against the don't say gay Bill They're arguing that DeSantis is punishing them for exercising their freedom of speech and it's becoming a whole thing.

We could dive into it a bit more. And also this is very important. Debt on arrival man. Dude, what a great name! So Kevin McCarthy The Speaker of the House is about to lock the old horns with President Joe Biden about the debt ceiling.

Basically, what Biden and the Democrats want is for them to raise the debt ceiling attached to nothing else. The Republicans want them to raise the debt ceiling. but on the caveat that they're going to cut government spending. which just to throw in here is one pretty solid way to battle inflation is when your government stops spending so much and we spend a lot, very, very rapidly.

So that's what they're fighting about. Will it become a big issue? I Don't know. Maybe I'm just being optimistic here. Maybe I'm just being a positive.

Pete I Think they're going to come to some sort of agreement that's not a guarantee. it's just in the past. This is how it's gone and maybe this time they truly are just both gonna hold their ground. I don't know I Think it would be so I was thinking about it this way.

I Think from a leverage standpoint, the Republicans and Kevin McCarthy have the upper hand because if they truly are willing to not negotiate on and be like no, you have to cut government spending and all of a sudden if they don't I guess appease Or if they don't drop that argument, well, then it's bad for all government officials. and Biden's trying to get re-elected So all of a sudden if our economy takes this hit from the debt ceiling conundrum, it's going to reflect really bad on all politicians. And when things started to look really bad in an economic stance, it's really tough to get reelected. So I think what Biden's going to end up doing is he's going to do the parade that he normally does of like I Can't believe they would hold the Financial Security of Americans above everyone's head like he'll give us some sort of speech like that.

But at the end he's just going to concede to what Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans want because he doesn't want this to become an issue as we get closer and closer to 2024 because he wants things to appear as good as they possibly can because one of the strongest indicators is someone getting reelected or not is how people feel about their finances. As much as the media wants to shove it down our throat that it's like whatever Fringe Social Issues: A lot of people vote with their pocketbook. If they're feeling good financially, they like to re-elect whoever's in office if they're feeling not so good financially, they like to switch things up because they figure oh well, financially things are already bad. So let's just see if maybe this next person can make it better.

So and this is just maybe you're thinking about it differently. I'm hey, I'm here to have a multi-way conversation with all of you. but the way I was kind of game planning it out it or more so Game Theory If This Were a chess match. It does seem when it comes to the debt ceiling issue that the Republicans have a quite a bit more leverage because even if they are acting in a way that makes things worse, they'll be able to pin it on Biden They'll be like, yeah, things are worth.

Even if they prompted it, they'll be like, well, it's worse and we're currently under Biden So if you want to switch things up, you better vote for someone else. Uh, so it does seem from a leverage standpoint once again that the Republicans have the edge here. Maybe I'm right, Maybe I'm wrong. I Would love to get your thoughts on it, but I I Think this is just the classic political pendulum.

We go back. We go back, We go back. We just keep swinging from one end to the other. The debt ceiling is to pay for the previous spent money including Trump spending not new money.

If they want to cut spending, you negotiate on the budget, not the debt ceiling. Um, no. I don't fully agree with that. So in all the previous debt ceiling negotiations, they have had discussions about government spending I mean we, we've listened to multiple interviews with that.

It's very rare that debt ceiling bills are. Well, it's very rare for any Bill to be just about the thing that the bill is like entitled. uh. so with that, I mean we could look at whatever the previous 10 times that they've had to do something with the debt ceiling and most likely there's going to be what's it called like pork barrel or whatever the hell the word is for it.

There's going to be other things involved in it And actually we listened to an interview with Kevin McCarthy When he brought that up like he pointed out the facts of like, yeah, no, we did it like here here. Uh, that's it's seemingly common, almost for our government to handle it that way. I'm not saying it's right. If anything, I think Bills should be exclusively about what the bill is about, but they love love, love attaching other things to it, which is just ridiculous.

Uh, absolutely ridiculous. but that just seems to be where we're at somewhat in the political sphere. Yeah, we have time for this. Why not? Tucker Carlson breaks the silence without addressing why Fox News Fired him Have you guys heard any good drama or any good rumors about why this happened? Uh, I'm now kind of getting curious I don't I don't know I've heard some good rumors but I'm still like a little confused.

but anyway Tucker did break his silence. Uh, right here last night. good evening I figured why not listen to this? We have the time and this came out last night and it's not him saying hey like Fox did this to me. it's I don't know.

Give it a listen and you could come up with your own opinion. Good evening, it's Tucker Carlson One of the first things you realize when you step outside the hello a few days is how many genuinely nice people there are in this country. Kind and decent people, people who really care about what's true, and a bunch of hilarious people. Also, a lot of those.

it's got to be the majority of the population even now, so that's heartening. The other thing you notice when you take a little time off is how unbelievably stupid most of the debates you see on television are. They're completely irrelevant. They mean nothing.

In five years, we won't even remember that we had them. Trust me, as someone who's participated and yet at the same time. And this is the amazing thing. The undeniably big topics, The ones that will Define our future get virtually no discussion at all: War, Civil Liberties, Emerging Science, Demographic change, Corporate power, Natural resources.

When was the last time you heard a legitimate debate about any of those issues? It's been a long time. Debates like that are not permitted in American Media Both political parties and their donors have reached consensus on what benefits them, and they actively collude to shut down any conversation about it. Suddenly, the United States looks very much like a one-party state. That's a depressing realization, but it's not permanent.

Our current orthodoxies won't last. They're brain dead. Nobody actually believes them. Hardly anyone's life is improved by them.

This moment is too inherently ridiculous to continue. and so it won't. The people in charge know this. That's why they're hysterical and aggressive.

They're afraid they've given up persuasion. They're resorting to force. But it won't work when honest people say what's true calmly and without embarrassment, they become powerful At the same time. The Liars who've been trying to silence them shrink and they become weaker.

That's the iron law of the universe. True things prevail. Where can you still find Americans saying true things? There aren't many places left, but there are some. and that's enough.

As long as you can hear the words, there is hope. See you soon! So obviously very high level type of stuff like I Don't think he was really spilling any tea if you ask me. It feels like he's kind of I don't know, setting up the dominoes to really do with his own thing. Like right there, he wasn't attacking Fox directly.

he was attacking the current concept of mainstream media. which gives me the feeling that he's setting up to just do his own thing I Don't know if he's going to have his own media, whatever company I Don't know if he's just gonna have his own show I Don't know if it's going to be the combination of the two. To me, it seems like it's a layup of a situation that he would go to Rumble I mean I Don't think he if for him right now, especially with already Steven crowd her over on Rumble crushing it. He commonly has over 150 000 concurrent viewers, so it's not quote unquote small anymore.

Like obviously it is smaller than YouTube but it is growing at a more rapid Pace such as the nature of like new startups especially within the media space. so it's growing I Don't see him going to Twitch Twitch is dying I Don't see him going to kick so really I think it's a battle between YouTube and Rumble but if he's going against this concept of censorship and whatever I mean from a business perspective it seems very logical he would either go to Rumble or he would do his own thing. but if you do your own thing that takes time. It takes a lot of time to build up the technology that it would take to support you like.

It's not easy just to make it like a video sharing website or platform so if he wants to get up and running soon like within the next couple weeks to me if I had to guess I would think Rumble I don't know I don't have any particular like insights to it I mean we know when this was first announced that all of a sudden like Rumble went up, the stock price went up because people are assuming that's how it was going to go I Actually think it would be cool just as a rumble content creator I Don't like seeing it where the outward public perception of it is that it's right leaning with like exclusively right-leaning content creators I Actually think it'd be cool if both Tucker and Don Lemon join and I'm not saying I'm a massive fan of really, either of them. I'm just saying for the concept of getting diverse opinions out there. uh, as much as I support free speech for people who are right leaning I Also do that with left-leaning people and people who are extremely in the middle. so I think there's an interesting diversity play here that could potentially happen I don't know if it will I don't know if Lemon would ever agree to that, but I think one of the coolest things is all of a sudden if left right in the middle and somewhere else on the map.

If everyone could fairly share their opinions, not just specifically in line with what like YouTube specifically wants uh I think that would be cool I mean I really think the odds of that happening are extraordinarily low. but hey, a Boy Can Dream You know, uh, Tuck became a fox liability. If you look at the evidence that came out during the last court battle, Tuck push fake news while behind the scenes admitting knowing it was false about the election from So Uh Lee. Uh, totally understand what you're saying.

The only thing that I get confused with that is the timing of it. This stuff that came out I mean we're talking multiple months, so wouldn't it have happened earlier? Generally when there's a little bit of a legal liability. For example, we were talking yesterday about the guy who was working at whatever bank and they just found out that he had took meetings with Epstein and before anything happened, they asked the dude. So to me, that liability uh, especially with the current or I guess now it's over the court case with Fox You think it would have happened earlier, maybe not.

I'm not a lawyer I don't speak legally, so maybe, but it's just like kind of going anecdotally of things we've seen in the past. You think they would have really kind of cut them loose earlier. you know? Um, I don't know I guess I'm just thinking loud and I would love to get all of your thoughts on it, but we'll find out I'm sure within the next couple weeks we're going to get some sort of big announcement of what he's doing, where he's going. I Think he's going to end up creating his own show.

The question is, will his own show be hosted somewhere or will he create his own media? Distribution Company I mean obviously the dude has the money and the connections to do really whatever he wants, but he has a massive follower base. I didn't realize this and for those of you who have heard me talk about it before, I'm sorry for repeating myself I don't watch mainstream media so I kind of in my mind mentally I was like okay I know he's up there I know Cuomo's up there I know people know Don Lemon I Know people know Rachel Maddow Like blah blah blah blah blah I Didn't realize according to the Nielsen ratings Tucker Carlson Especially in the key demographic of like whatever 20 to 30, 25 to 40 like the younger cohort, he is massively popular. the average viewership at Fox is around 1.5 million. Tucker doubles that he's above three, he's at three, three, three five depending on what's going on and then even the At like his numbers sometimes are 10 Xing what's going on on MSNBC and CNM So in my mind just outwardly I was like oh, okay, like all these media, the the main Prime Time media people are all roughly equal.

Uh, but apparently that's completely wrong. Apparently, for whatever reason. uh, he's that much more popular. So I mean I Think it's fair for us to talk about Fox as a stock I mean this.

There's no way that this is just gonna have like zero implications on the company. I mean a little bit of a shoulder head, shoulder situation, but a arcing back around we're kind of at the support of 29 30 somewhere in here, but just from a like a Pure. at Revenue standpoint, this seems like it's going to be a big hit. So I went on into a little bit of a deep dive on it and I found out about this pretty large cohort of people that only watch Fox for Tucker Uh, I Kind of assumed mentally that the people who watch it they're like oh yeah I kind of watched this show but I also watched that show but like a little bit here.

but I like Tucker the best I didn't realize that there was I mean you could see it for Twitter yourself. There are people out there who are like in their mind, it's not Fox it's Tucker they just follow Tucker they are fan of Tucker I mean if Tucker signed a job on MSNBC I think there's a large group of people who would then start watching MSNBC So I don't think it's a Fox thing I think it's specifically a Tucker thing now. obviously that's not going to be true for 100 of people, but I was just kind of uh, shocked when I dove into the numbers I didn't realize how large of like a direct following Tucker has and I think that is a very loyal following that's going to follow him anywhere like I said I swear I truly truly believe if he came out he's like I'm signing with MSNBC I'm signing with the view I'm signing with I don't know I think there's still many, many people who had fallen because they just like him and I think it's a little bit agnostic of the platform he's on. Obviously, once again, that's not a hundred percent of people.

but I just when I was looking into the numbers, the more and more I found and it wasn't a recent phenomena either. Apparently it's been going on for years and years and years. So um, whether you like them or not, there is a large percentage of the American population that very much does like him. So from a business perspective, it seems like it's going to be a massive negative for Fox and it seems like it's going to be a massive positive for wherever he ends up going.

so just want to throw that out there. Not really. I don't know we could debate politics, but maybe we'll save that for a little bit later. I'm talking more of like financially.

Probably worthwhile to watch the Fox stock, and probably also worthwhile to watch if it is publicly traded wherever he ends up going. So just wanted to throw that out there for all of you. Uh, do we have this video? We do? We do. We do.

Um, I guess because we're talking a little bit about politics and whatnot. the we have earnings. Now there's earnings. Next week.

there's also an Fomc meeting next week. We also have inflation. so this week we get the PCA report a lot of earnings. Next week we have more earnings and also the Fomc meeting the next Fed rate hike.

After that, it seems like the next big market economic thing that's going to be kind of I don't know. Really, controlling our lives for a little bit will be the debt ceiling. So I think it's important for us to all stay on this because it's going to be prompting Market swings in One Direction Another depending on how things do or don't go. So I think we need to be I know staying on this a little bit more.

the House Republicans passed the only Bill in Washington that lifts the debt limit, ends wasteful Washington spending and puts America back on the right economic path that we're going to limit the growth in the future we're going to save by pulling back this unspent covered money. sorry it's not that loud I'm maxing it out. They're getting more people encouraging them back to work. The sad part here is now the Democrats need to do their The President can no longer need to do their job Senator Schumer If he thinks he's got a plan, put it on the floor, see if you can pass it and then we can go to conference.

But now the President can no longer put this economy in jeopardy. We lifted the debt limit. we've sent it to the Senate we've done our job the only body in here that's done theirs the Senate I got to give him credit. They did name March maple syrup month and they have thanked Yukon and congratulated for their basketball win.

But they've done nothing when it comes to the economy or the deadline wait. Shut up! Right now is March really Maple syrup month and no one told me. So the Democrats are putting the country in Jeopardy The President By ignoring can even negotiate. No way.

The majority sit down and negotiate to make sure we end our dependency on China to stop the inflations the Democrats created by spending six trillion dollars? No one. Yes it is. There's not one place that you can't find a place that you could have savings and what Washington spends I Think it's up to them now. Well that's cool.

It's good to know that our government is getting up to like pretty useful things. Uh, looks like actually Kevin McCarthy was just on CNBC Speaking about not only like the Disney DeSantis thing, but also what's going on. So here we might as well tag these together. Happened in the Senate and then you got.

this just happened a couple minutes ago. What is actually going to finally happen? Uh Mr Speaker What's going to be in the final bill? What would you settle for? What would uh President Biden and democrats for allow to be in there that would get where you could get enough votes to pass that in the house again? Well, we just showed to the American public what we would settle for. We Pat we not only offered it, we passed it. I Have no idea what the Democrats can do or what they're able to achieve because they have not shown it to the American public.

they won't even sit down to communicate with one another. But don't take my place even. Democrats today are reaching out and saying the president is wrong from Debbie Dingle from Amy Klobuchar You even have Clyburn the other day saying that the President should sit down and talk with me myself, the speaker because he should negotiate just like every time before. Remember what the former speaker Nancy Pelosi said She said, raising the debt limit without having a budget negotiation will not pass and will not happen.

So for all this falsity out there, what people report: every single time you raise the debt limit, there was a negotiation on where we went with budget. The only difference is the Democrats always wanted to spend more anytime you want to curb the inflation. Anytime you want to end dependency on China people rise up and say that's wrong. Well no it's not because when when Schumer sat in 2017 and said his only leverage was in the debt ceiling, our debt was at 20 trillion Today it's 32 trillion.

When are we going to pause and stop playing politics and look to the future? We cannot continue to spend in this stop playing tomorrow. As much as we are, the president cannot sit back and think he cannot find any place to have savings. Speaker: Sorkin Just let Rick do all of this. Rick knows how to Let It Rock Uh if uh I guess do you guys want to listen to this Disney's thing I don't know how many of you I've been tracking it just to see if there is an opportunity in terms of a trade doesn't really feel like there is to give you the tldr the santis obviously supporting the don't say gay bill which is a strange name for it and then Disney came out saying hey, we don't like you and then it seems like DeSantis kind of from a business perspective started to I don't know be a thorn in their side if you will.

So now Disney's actually suing DeSantis um no. Okay, so most people say no. All right, we can skip that for now. Wait, what was this one? Oh wait, what is this one? They keep giving us fresh written perseverance uh matters in life and I think it only made us stronger as we went through that.

And you know every single week they underestimate what this new Congress can do from the parents Bill of Rights from what you just watched that we actually had a plan and lifted the debt ceiling. but we've made our economy stronger. What has the Senate done? They've named March main maple syrup month. They congratulated UConn for winning a basketball game.

they had no plan. met with the president since that 85 days since I think they cut the same thing. the American people believe the President should negotiate if he wants to do nothing Republicans have a plan. simply go back to how much we were spending four months ago.

This is not radical. It's Common Sense responsible spending. Um, so Lee This kind of connects a little bit to what you were saying of they are intimately related and I don't mean like in ancestral way, but they're still intimately related. Um, you can't really talk about one without talking about the other, so it'll be interesting.

I mean do you I mean you're normal folk, right? Do you? Who do you think's in the right here? like I know? Obviously, within the chat, we have right-leaning people. We have left-leaning people To me without really talking about politics. If we look at the financing of it. yeah, we should do something about government spending.

That's insane. Why would we continually hike up the limit of where we could go without talking about the Reckless drunken sailor s spending we're doing to me? I Almost Don't get the other side. I I Don't understand the other side of the argument. I'm a little bit confused that like, how is there any legitimate argument of like yeah, yeah, just do the debt limit.

But we'll talk about our spending later like I I don't understand that. I I Just I Can't wrap my head around it. Um, increase government spending on ice cream? Well, I Think that's something we could also support. Uh uh, we can't do anything about these dictatorial politicians.

Well, you know, stock market equals CIA control man. We're really going for it. The CIA Controlled I'm always one for a good conspiracy. Yeah, Southwest is Luv Luv is Southwest They're down just because I mean but if you look at American it's doing better.

Southwest right now in the short term on a relative basis to the other major airlines is doing poorly because of the whole holiday season debacle that is still causing them to miss on their top and bottom line numbers. Uh, we have sub 10 minutes ago before the Market opens for the day. Officially I would love to get your votes, love to get your votes. Obviously this happened now two days in a row.

I Do want to point out that two days in a row we sold off it, popped in pre-market and then we ended up getting crushed. We're right at that 407 level. Maybe we're gonna bake break Trend today. or maybe we're gonna stick with it and that's why I'm gonna get your thoughts.

I Do want to remind you that from a seasonal standpoint, today does favor the Bulls on this individual day, buying it, open, selling it, close testing this. for the past 25 years, the Bulls have won 60 of the time. I Know this is incredibly small to see my apologies, uh, but the profit factors 3.27 So clearly from a seasonal perspective, today does savor the Bulls and this is a look at the equity curve slowly but surely grounding to the upside. Honestly, I mean 60.

Which means that the Bears have won four out of ten times. so it is better than flipping a coin. I Just want to let you know about the seasonal bias of the situation. That yeah, uh, clearly a little bit.

Well, when I say it favors the Bulls I don't want anyone in their mind to be like this means that they're going to win like 90 of the time. That's not exactly how it works. Why can I not? Oh, there's chat Rumble Chat you're up on the screen. Congratulations Matt Massive massive.

Congrats to the Rumble Chat. Uh, you want a spy poll you know for Dom Will do this. Start a poll. Let's see how smart you folks are.

Market today. Market today. We'll do green. We'll start with green just because that's what the seasonality favors.

but we'll let some of the negative. Nancy's also vote all right I Just started a bowl. Let us know if you think it's going to be red green somewhere in the middle Sean Boo Rumble Chat. You better better hope they don't hear that.

You better hope they don't hear that on you. All right? So McCarthy Debt Plan passes House escalating standoff with Biden Speaker overcomes internal descent to his past First big test changes to all right, that doesn't really matter Speaker Kevin McCarthy squeaked his debt limit Bill Through the house yesterday Wednesday Winning a politically important victory that intensifies the standoff with the White House over averting a catastrophic U.S Default I'm happy to meet with McCarthy but not on whether or not the debt limit gets extended. That's not negotiable. Well, we'll find out things that in politics tend to be stated as not negotiable end up being pretty freaking negotiable.

The bill, which passed 217 to 215 very much a razor thin margin is Republican opening offer and has no chance of passing the democratic-controlled Senate So once again, remember, remember that weird video that we all did Watch the cartoon of like how a bill becomes a law you pass the house, then you pass the Senate and it's not. this particular thing's not even. it's more of it's not going to get to the President. it's more of just a show type of a deal that he now has clearly some power within the house.

Embattled representative George Santos of New York who had been undecided, provided extra drama waiting to be the last Republic Linda Cassavope and tipping the balance in favor. Four members of his party Matt Gates and Florida Andy Biggs of Arizona and Ken Buck that's a cool name Kim Book of Colorado and Tim Burchett of Tennessee voted against the plan along with every Democrat in the chamber. I Wonder why Matt Gates did does anyone have the line on why that happened? M