Thank you Foreign Thank you Oh brother oh brother oh brother hello hello good morning, Good morning, good morning it is. Thursday May the 11th in inflation day. We are getting the Producer Price Index report this morning in about 10 minutes. On top of that, we have a lot of important stuff going on.

Particularly, it seems as if the regional banking sector is once again until obviously this makes me as giddy as the schoolgirl because I have a bunch of puts now things are bouncing a little bit. But across the board, the regional banking sector is red and this is all coming on. A report in SEC filing from Pacwest Pac-w that as of last week, the week ending I Believe on the fifth whatever the Friday of last week was, they lost about 10 percent of their deposits, so not so good. Pack less down around 15.

I Think Wall is following suit. they're down four percent. Kre. How much is kre down right now? Kre down? uh, 0.8 So it was a little bit more extreme about an hour ago, but it started ounce but across the board still in the red.

Low volume. This is all pre-market and as I remind everyone every single morning, just because you see something in pre-market doesn't mean it has to continue during the day, it's about a 50 50. in fact, I've done some breakdowns of it and the pre-market action. It's not too indicative of what's about to happen in the day, so we have craziness in the overall.

Market Because we get not only an inflation report at 8 30, but we're also getting another jobless claims report from there. we have to pay attention what's going on in banking. We also are probably going to get some updates, uh, various updates in the political sphere. We have to talk about the debt limit we have to talk about Trump CNN Appearance Last night we have to talk about what's going on with George Santos He was arrested pleading not guilty.

We have to talk about the new accusations against Biden and his family receiving foreign wires in their bank accounts. So there's a lot going on on the political sphere. We're also in earnings Disney Getting cracked after their earnings Robin Hood Looking good because apparently they want to allow degenerates to be degenerates Monday through Friday They are moving towards 24-hour trading, so that's a thing then. Also, we have to talk a little bit about Carl Icahn Who Yesterday we found out not only did they miss on their earnings, but they are being investigated by a regulatory body and now early this morning Hindenburg Research dropped an update on the response from Icon and the team so we could be going over that.

So really, the Tldr is, we have a lot to talk about. We have a lot to talk about, a lot to talk about, A lot to talk about. Now before we get into it, I'm going to ask you you as I always do could you guys please help me out in absolutely annihilate murder? Destroy the like button. There's about 500 of you of you in here, so we have it.

Should have about a thousand account likes and you might be thinking how does that math work And basically what I'm saying is go make a couple extra accounts like them from all the accounts. Watch on all the accounts for sure. Friends, family members, managers, workers, co-workers colleagues. just force everyone to watch it this morning.

Uh, things are going to get wild. Yesterday was an absolutely wild day. We had a huge gap up we sold off. but then by the end of the day we have some sort of rally.

So it was a bullish engulfing candle followed by a or a bearish engulfing candle excuse me followed by a bullish golfing candle. one of the strangest days ever. And then actually in the overnight session, things pumped even more. but now because of various Reports most likely related to the banking sector and also the fact that Disney missed things are coming down.

And really, we're getting into that weird final 10 minute thing where there's just like random whips. All to the upside to the downside, as we're waiting for the next inflation report. Speaking of the next inflation report, the PPI month over month is expected to be 0.3 and the core is expected to be 0.2 and the initial jobless claims is expected to be 245 000. So once again, 0.3.2 245 000.

Those are all the numbers we're going to be listening for at 8 30. shit I Dropped the pen again. Fuck. Why do I do this I'm such a fucking loser I Can't keep a fucking pen in my hand anymore.

All right, we're back in action. This is why Kelly Ripa Never never lets me on the show, never lets me on the show. They're like, we only, uh, employ anchors who have the capability of holding on to a pen. But that's what happens.

That's uh, that's just what happens I I Guess it's going to be one of those days. Oh also, I think we have a little bit of a bonus trip I believe Vlad Tennis of Robin Hood will be coming on to CNBC this morning so we'll be able to listen to him. We have to talk about things I Think it's actually going to be a pretty fun day I Think it's actually going to be a pretty exciting fun day. so I hope everyone's ready I guess before we get into it I Do want to show you kind of where we're at in the market and whatnot, where we're at and whatnot.

So the Spy Obviously even though it was a huge gap up, we sold off to below the low of yesterday all the way down here to sub 409. Then we had a huge rally into close, then it went even higher and now we're kind of giving it back. and we're slightly below where we closed out yesterday, which, uh, functionally was basically at the open of yesterday. So uh, if you look at the daily chart like not much of a move if you're just looking at the number I think we gained 0.4 or something like that.

Uh, but it doesn't really tell the tale of all the crazy whips all that we saw yesterday. So IEP low yesterday, just above 30. that's essentially where we're training right now. we will be going over Hindenburg's response.

That's most likely why it's down. Remember, they miss on their earnings and they're also being investigated by some regulatory body and then this is the main drop. This is probably the main news of what's happening right now. Pacwest is down 18.4 Closed out the day around six dollars.

currently trading below five I would love this thing to crack four. Kre is down 1.5 percent. Closed out the day at 37 at 36.50 If this thing gives up 36 and then especially gives up 35, things could get pretty brutal. and for those of you watching Western Alliance it is down 8.5 Closed out the day at 27.50 currently trading at 2521.

Obviously 25 is a key level. 24 is the key. level. 20 is important too.

But really what I want is a snap of 18. I think 18 is very much the Line in the Sand for Western Airlines because that's the level of Gap back up to when they basically said they were going to sue the Financial Times for lying about what's going on. so that's when people kind of like discounted that news I think they started buying there so all the Longs at that level if we get below it. Well, inherently, from that point onward, they'll all be underwater if we break down below that level.

So that's why I care about that 18 17-ish level on Western Alliance Very very much so well. I Hope you guys are ready I hope you guys are ready. It's going to be quite the day. Let's check in on Crypto very quickly.

Bitcoin Trading at 27.5 K Pepe giving up more of its gains trading at 16. uh, I'm still profitable, but I might be pulling the rip cord here pretty soon because all it's doing is going down and down and down. and alas, you can always get back in. In terms of the overall: Market it's just been chop City I Mean you can see ever since we basically got up here from Friday March 30th.

basically all of April and now the first half of May has been nothing but range bound chop. We've been between 404 and 4 15. We got up in here. We pushed a little, pushed a little more, gave it back push a little more, give it back push a little more.

Wouldn't be surprised if we're about to give it back because for a month and a half, it's just been painful Sideways chop we're not getting nice explosive. Trends To the upside to the downside, it's just chop chop chop city, which means sit on your hands or play smaller. Or really, you just have to be disciplined and stick to your risk and reward. Uh, what I'm looking for is we still have this upside Gap fill to 4 15 27.

Obviously something worthwhile to pay attention to if we get another bullish push. But if things revert the way they did yesterday I would then be looking for the next downside Gap though to 407.27 So that's my upside Target And that's my downside Target Obviously, if we go to the downside, that's quite a ways away, that's six dollars away, so there would be other targets and other things I'd be watching before we really get there. Like there are key breakdown levels like 411 410. But in terms of Gap those 407 27 is the downside one and 415 27 is the upside.

Target Man oh man. I Am beyond excited for today I Think we're gonna see a lot of cool stuff playing out. Hopefully it favors the positions that you're in more realistically. I Really wanted to favor the positions that I'm in, but obviously time will tell folks if you want, uh, join up with the locals Community Uh, this is where I post like the seasonality some of my trades and other important stuff.

Matt Cores.locals.com It is pinned to the top of chat. It's in the description of the video. There's a free membership and a premium membership. If you want the premium membership for free, there's two separate codes that will work.

One is goonie and then the other is Banks B-a-n-k-s So Goonie and Banks should both individually work. Just make sure you're on monthly instead of annual. If you're on annual, it won't work when you're signing up anyway. Macquares.locals.com pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video I Highly recommend that you all check it out and with that being said, we are about two minutes two minutes away.

I Don't want to miss the report once again. We were listening for the initial jobless claims and we're also listing for the PPI report. Ppi is looking to be 0.3 The core is 0.2 and the initial jobless claims is 245 000. all that information will be coming out at 8 30, so we have just under two minutes until lots and lots of volatility.

On top of that. I Want to be running you through the recent update with Pac West and why it's vomiting to the tune of 21 this morning? Why Kre is down 1.3 and Wall is now down 9.5 We'll also be getting into Hindenburg's response to Icon IEP and that is currently down 4.9 I Re-entered a lotto play on this one looking for the snap of the Rage of 28 to 30 and then a sell-off to the 20s. Would love to capture my profits there. Then we're going to be getting into Disney Robin Hood Google We have a lot to go over this morning.

A Lot A lot A lot to go over. I Think it's going to be a good one? Uh, so before we actually get the report I want you guys to see where we're at right now? basically I'm asking you a minute out with 55 seconds to go. Do you guys think today is going to be a red day or a Green Day Big Red Day or Big Green Day Big Green Day Big Red day? Or do you think we're going absolutely nowhere? You have to vote before we get three. Like really the information from them because like, if you're not like that doesn't count, it's a it's only fun if you're making a call out now.

Uh so I Want to put that out there I Hope they put Rick Centelli on and let me get this all ready. back to Squawk Box on CNBC We're just seconds away from April producer prices about 40 seconds. Initial: Jobless Globalist Clean jobless claims Futures Uh, right now down 72 on the Dow and we do have the NASDAQ continuing to hold on to some gains. Uh, we did.

So let's see. Let's see. Let's see start to fall with the flight to Quality we're flat right now. the Futures Market is at 4152-4152.

Oh brother, in the regional banking sector with Pac West sharply lower today, Roxanne tells a little bit of a pop To the upside: CME in Chicago a long way from pack West Rick Rick Rick Rick Rick all over the place this morning. But what are these numbers? Yes, the banking Butterfly Effect is what we call it in Chicago All right, we're looking for initial jobless claims to be around 245, but it jump jumped up to 264 000. 264. we're gonna fall down on that.

When was the last time we were that high on initial jobless claims? Uh, to find a higher uh time than that, it would be October 22nd week of 21. So a bit of a ways back and it's actually continuing claims that are more well behaved today. which is the opposite of lately expecting 1.82 million. we have one million 813 000 so just a bit under that.

and our last look was Market popped a little bit but then just gave it back. We're still kind of flat 1 000. So continuing claims have definitely now remaining over 1.8 but not by much and they're not really clearing the hurdle higher. All right here we go: PPI for April expected up three tens is up two tenths.

And remember, all these numbers peaked in March of 20. coming in a little cool like it did yesterday. if we look at X Food and Energy which is core up two tenths as expected literally did the same thing as yesterday. One of them came in in line, the other one was a little cool is up two tenths and that peaked at up nine tenths.

Now the year over year and this is very interesting. What movies is this? API Yesterday here I think their graphic was wrong based on what he said. I'm consecutively for 10 months in a row. Will it be 11? It is 11 months in a row.

2.3 This is following 2.7 high water mark there 11.7 ex. Food and Energy year over year. it's been uh, down, uh, 13 consecutive months even though there's been a couple of duplicates. So 13 did it make it 14.

it did from 3.4 down to three point. two high water mark here was 9.7 and finally, year-over-year X Food X Energy X trade 3.4 percent that is now down for excuse me up up 14 months in a row. excuse me down. see I Get so excited Joe that these inflation numbers are so Central To strategies: it's down 14 months consecutive.

Producer President Next released today: 17 April and May and August and September 3.4 All were equal amounts and last month was revised from 3.6 3.7 So after all of that, uh, basically lower on every metric with regard to it isn't a bad thing. We can argue interest rates. It's funny Market not moving much yet. but here we are still hovering right around the same we were at 338.

We're at three things coming down to 337, but that alone is down seven basis points and when pre-opening stop market futures Market holding flat right now. it did pop at first, but then came right back down 4152. numbers there? What are your thoughts? I think Disney's down a lot so that almost accounts for the the Divergence in the Dow uh right there there's Disney Rick as you can see. uh down Disney down five percent Disney got so watered with numbers that became less less meaningful once we had the pack.

West Uh yeah, it feels like the the banking news is kind of dominating today. this could it isn't as of now, but this could become a very, very big deal. Probably the whole news saying yesterday that you know probably not going to be 08 First Horizon down for Western lines down eight Oh exactly. And you know, listen, there's a lot of economists, a lot of analysts, a lot of Traders a lot of my sources who don't really see recession coming I don't know that it should be the complete Focus but I do think that I pretty much unmoved.

still looking bad, carry not looking so good you can see Disney here did any of you catch this Disney soft Landing It doesn't seem realistic. any of you catch the Disney Channel very slow moving and slow to unravel. but just keep an eye on those claims. they're telling the story.

Okay, all right. Rick thank you, thank you. appreciate it for more reaction to today's data. Let's bring in Wendy Adelberg Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings institution and director of the Hamilton project and Michael Strain director of Economic Policy American Uh, The other thing down here, they're showing the right numbers now.

We just were talking about how the PPI number kind of became I don't know, not necessarily a back seat Wendy to what's happening in Regional Banks But taken all together, how do you view things with the information that the FED has now in hand? knowing that they're going to get a lot more before their next meeting? I Think they have a good case to pause. The headline number was 3.2 percent. Uh, for the three months through April that's down a fair bit. Uh, and some of the super core measures also showed some promise.

But downtown, mainly because of the Disney the FED can see a lot of evidence of slowing in the real economy. We know that job gains for the three months were 222 000. That's down from over 300 000. We have some evidence that consumer spending is slowing and then of course everything that you're talking about in the banking sector.

Uh, and including what's happening to demand for loans from the from the business side. We have a lot of evidence that there is slowing. So I think the Fed so far can be a little patient. Now in the next meeting to see whether or not Market giving up a little bit in the real economy really does the jobs.

Don't you think that helps the FED uh, do its job? Absolutely. Uh I mean what we're seeing with the banks so far it seems to be folks. uh, allegedly allegedly allegedly allegedly Vlad Tennev of Robin Hood will be coming on to CNBC this morning. Uh, if he ends up coming on when I'm like talking about something else, could you guys please yell at me and chat? because I very much want to listen to that with all of you.

Uh, but there are some other things that I think we should be going over in the meantime instead of listening to that. well is she talking about Regional Banks Right now it's always hard to know how to interpret the sluice when when Banks say that they're when they're typing if they're typing from very loose little patient. Now in the next meeting to see whether or not that that slowing in the real economy really does the job to get inflation down to to better numbers We there's the banks. uh Wendy I sort of combined that with it I mean there will be some credit contraction.

He doesn't look happy. Absolutely. Uh, I mean what we're seeing with the banks so far it seems to be. Rel You know the the real trauma seems to be isolated to particular institutions.

Uh, what? I'm looking forward is what's happening to demand. So for sure there's contraction on the supply. but it's It's hard to know how much of that is from the banking crisis. How much of that is just because? there's overall, you know contraction from okay too.

It's always hard for those. Improvement Yes, if you throw out used cars, it looks better, but there's something they're not about this. Uh folks, if Vlad tentative comes up, let me know. uh, he will be coming up if you see him, they're like hey, he's in the next like whatever.

Um, next piece like let me know. Um, all right. so there are things, yell at me and chat when Vlad tandem is coming up. Other than that, we have a lot to go over.

Lots and lots to go over. So everyone buckle up, put on your thinking caps and let's rock that Futures dip as Disney Falls more U.S Inflation data ahead. As of now, we are dipping off of the news. So right here, we popped a little bit at 8 30 I'm on the three minute chart.

Here we'll go to the one minute right when it came out, we popped a little bit, then we went sideways, and now we're below the moving averages. At least on the one minute we are below it. On the three minute, we're also below it on the five minutes. So the bearish momentum thus far this morning is winning.

But remember, things are going to be changing quite a bit when the bell actually goes dingety ding ding ding. As of now, the Dow is slightly red. s P's basically Break Even Tech once again, is winning the day. Oils sitting at 72 hasn't been much of a change here.

Yields are coming down in terms of seasonality. Today does favor the Bears ever so slightly. Not a strong bearish day, but a bearish day nonetheless. The Bulls have won 44 of the time.

The profit factor is 0.83 If it's below one, that means it's good to be a bear. And then this is the A. Look at the equity curve. buying it, open, selling it, closed on the S P 500 futures mark it Mark it.

If you did that every single day over the past 25 years, this is what your Equity curve would look like. Uh, obviously 25 to 20 years ago. It was a little bit bullish, but ever since then we've just been trending down and down and down. And that's why I didn't call this day like absurdly embarrassed.

but it is clearly leaning bearish. I Also want you to know that from a seasonal standpoint and we could cover this later tomorrow Friday the 12th. It does clearly clearly favor the Bulls. That doesn't mean tomorrow has to be bullish.

I Just want you to know that obviously tomorrow does favor the Bulls just from a seasonal perspective. Now, very quickly just talking about our friends across the pond: Bank of England hikes ranked by 25 basis points no longer sees recession? Uh, I mean I Don't agree with this latter half, but they've just been playing catch-up with us with their rate hikes. We started it at first and they're probably just going to keep going for a little bit more because there was a bit of a lag effect from we started first. they started later so they still have a little bit bit more to go so just wanted you to know about that.

Blackstone is in talks with U.S Regional Banks over lending. So interesting update early this morning. Also the fact that this is coming out with the new Pac West news. So let me try to do my best to clarify like what's actually happening today in the regional banking sector: Blackstone is in talks with regional Banks about forming Partnerships where they would make loans that the firm funnels to its Insurance clients underlying the growing heft of private capitals heavyweights in financial markets, the alternative Asset Managers in discussions with lenders with between 100 billion and 250 billion in assets Blackstone President John Gray As saying in the interview, he declined to name the lenders involved under grace proposal, the insurers would pay a fee to Blackstone for directing assets to them and they would hold the debt to maturity.

He said firms like his could help Banks offload some of the risk after a loan has been securitized as Regional Banks experience outflows of deposits. We are seeing real-time opportunities to partner with them at scale, so not exactly the same way. JPM and the other 10 Banks got involved with FRC In fact, it's very different, but yet you're seeing these larger players trying to. Well, it's an opportunity for them.

I Don't think they're just doing this because they're altruistic players. It's going to end up making them money, but we are seeing, uh, interesting or we'll put it as unique opportunities. but Blackstone Trying to get involved here, they'll make some money. but also it might help some of the hemorrhaging that we're seeing.

U.S default swaps are now more expensive than Brazil and Mexico credit default swaps on one-year treasury soar to record. Biden Republican Leaders not closer to resolving standoff now I'm sure many of you have seen the movie The Big Short but that all had to do with swaps and those types of swats. these credit swaps they would pay off if there was a big default and that's what ended up happening. So there was nothing going on, nothing going on.

They were buying these five contracts, paying the fee, paying the fee, the monthly. just basically um I guess the premium on it. and then it ended up paying off Huge. So right here there's these swaps on the one-year treasury's not being able to pay, which would be exactly what happens if the US ends up defaulting.

And obviously as the odds of that playing out become more likely, the premium premium becomes more expensive. So some kind of wild stuff there if you ask me. In my heart of hearts: I Do not believe that the US government is going to default I Think it would be far too embarrassing to the Us as a whole, but particularly to the Democrats just because if they're in power right now. So I think they're going to end up conceding I Don't see us all of a sudden making our first default here.

Uh, in the history of the US I Don't see it happening, but they are increasing the odds of it Matt Look up the video of Peter flattery calling out Buffett and Gates and getting arrested. Okay, uh. Peter flat flight flight already? All right? I'll check that out. I Appreciate that cam.

Uh, let's give this a very quick listen. We know that this is pretty much a repeated event here in the U.S and we seem to go into the 11th hour every now and again. How high are the stakes this time around? I Think the stakes are really high this time around. Certainly when we look at Stats Yes, it's just under a hundred percent.

Ideally, you want to be at 70 percent, and certainly we're going to get to 200 in about 30 years. Excuse me I'm about 30 Okay So that's suggesting that markets might actually punish the US for having really outsized debt and for all the rancor that we're seeing in Congress in terms of not resolving this in a really good time. Is there a real risk to us assets at this point? Yes, there certainly is if we have a sovereign debt rating downgrade buying one or more, which is what would happen if you're going to see higher borrowing costs, lots of volatility, and certainly this time investors May really punish the U.S And so that means higher borrowing costs for the government. Certainly for the private sector, that means less investment slower GDP higher inflation.

A very bad environment for the United States this week because as Sherry said, we've been to the bridge, right? This is kind of how the Playbook Disney looking very heavy this time, very heavy. Well, I think it's the rancor that we're seeing and watch the second time. She's like, really, not a willingness to compromise and certainly you know many of us are talking about well, maybe they'll be like a temporary impasse where they kind of Kick this down the road to September resentfulness, especially when long-standing um, summer to negotiate a deal. But it doesn't seem like that's really in the cards and so it really does increase the risk fight.

And certainly when you look at a breach in the debt ceiling, you'd have a complete shutdown almost probably every agency and no spending for several weeks from the government, and that's going to cause a massive crisis. They are meeting again tomorrow activity and that's really going to weigh on the economy. we're looking at again, an instantaneous recession. Uh, also that feeds it like Pops in like chips about extending the debt limit hike.

Uh, that he's ready to talk about the budget. This lead to a prolonged a standoff where you're going to end up talking about the 2024 budget, the debt ceiling, a larger battle, and in the meantime, so much uncertainty about the US economy. Sure, it's certainly possible that something short-lived is passed for the summer so that they can spend that time negotiating, talking, and it kind of runs up against the end of the fiscal year when we need to talk about how do we fund the government for the next year, so all this could become a big mix of policy and and challenges at the end of the fiscal year in September. But it certainly is constructive that we're hearing that there's there's still continued talks to address this and that.

uh, certainly from the administration that they are not um, looking to have a breach and that they are open to different possibilities to avoid one. So obviously a lot going on. I Just want to keep you updated about this because we're kind of in between meetings right now like I said they are. We know that.

take this down. they are meeting once again tomorrow. So maybe there's going to be some sort of update. and there is a scenario in which that causes the market to pop.

Because yes, seasonally, tomorrow is bullish. Today is bearish. Tomorrow is very bullish. So if we get some sort of positive update about this whole debt limit, yeah, I would expect the market to pop on it.

But the other thing that really has to be considered is what's going on in banking Because as much as they might hit this debt limit solution, we also could have more Banks collapsing. which is going to cause clearly at least a little bit of fear. Packway shares tumble 20 after Regional Bank says deposits fell 9.5 last week. So here's the skinny on the situation.

They said that they lost 9.5 percent of their deposits roughly 10 percent 5 billion. that's five with a B billion of the deposits are uninsured like that are still in the bank right now and they're saying that they actually have like the the money, the cash, the liquidity for 15 billion. So they're saying please people, don't panic. We have the money.

There's no reason to do a bank run here. We have 15 billion. There's only 5 billion that's above the FDIC Insurance level. You are good.

This is also the same type of terminology and verbiage that we very much heard from. FRC This is very much the same terminology and verbiage. We heard from the Treasury Secretary from the government as a whole from the FDIC from the FED everyone was tell us this fine. They're like guys, look at the numbers, no need to panic and yet that did not stop the fear.

And I understand why When people see the stock coming down and they think about it, they're like okay, we get it. Maybe there's a one percent chance that we're not going to get our money as in there's a 99 chance everything will be A-Okay I Think the average person using these Banks thinks why would I take any risk? Why would I be the person taking a little bit of risk when there's no risk. If I just move my money out and you could be a hundred percent sure that your money is going to be fine I think that's what's going through the mind of many, many, many people right now. and I think that's exactly why last week when Pac West said they were exploring strategic alternatives on the fourth and the fifth.

That's why you saw a massive outflow, billions of dollars gone, and this news and the stock going down I Don't think it's going to slow down I Think your average person who's not really paying attention to the economy and news every single day, every single day they're gonna be like wow, this Stock's really down and I don't want to risk losing my money so I might as well go take my money out and I do believe that the government's going to step in and end up insuring all deposits like I Really don't think there's much of a risk of depositors losing their money. The banks can go under, but that doesn't mean depositors lose their money. But with that, even as I'm saying I don't think there's much of a risk, but I can't say the risk is zero and I think people are interpreting that of like why take any risk at all, why not just move my money to a big legitimate bank or these are legitimate I actually think they're great bangs um I don't know if grades the right way because like things like Svb obviously blew up Anyway, these aren't horribly dismally run Banks they're fine Banks but still I Don't think that stops the crowd psychology of people panicking I Think this is much more of a crowd psychology type of issue rather than like a financial or economic I Think the crowd psychology is a self-fulfilling prophecy that makes it become an economic or financial issue. So anyway, last week they lost 9.5 of their deposits.

It was a lot. Pack questions. Now has 15 billion of available liquidity compared to 5.2 billion of uninsured deposits. So they're trying to tell everyone that it's a-okay and it might be.

But I Just want to remind you this is pretty much exactly what happened with FRC and it turns out things were not A-Okay Speaking of not being A-Okay that is what's going on in George Santos's life. This is a guy who was in the news a couple months ago because it turns out he got elected to Congress and apparently it was like all a lie and it turns out that wasn't the only thing he was oh I should say allegedly lying about Santo says I will not resign after pleading not guilty to criminal charges George Santos pleaded not guilty to an array of federal crimes including fraud, theft, money laundering, and making false statements Santos 34 was arraigned in federal court in Long Island New York Hours after his arrest on a 13-count indictment, he was released on a 500 000. Bond Santos is charged with relying on repeated dishonesty and deception to ascend to the halls of Congress and enrich himself. Uh, he says I didn't do it I'm not guilty and I get it in the US you are innocent till proven guilty as I alluded to in my update video yesterday which more of you need to be watching I Really think you're gonna like it every single evening? 7 8 P.M Check out the channel.

there's an update video of everything you might have missed in the day, maybe some things that you miss in the Stream. But anyway I Talked about George Santos here and I very much am a fan in the US of how you're innocent till proven guilty. but given this guy's track record, it's not looking good now. Everyone deserves their day in court and like, let's hear him out, maybe it's a giant misunderstanding.

Maybe if you talk to Tate The Matrix is coming after him, it's totally possible. But the information that's out there, it's kind of pretty damning against this dude. Vlad's up! Oh thank you the 80s and in that time period markets. Glad tennep, he is the CEO of Robin Hood And Bud thanks for being here this morning Dude, thanks for having me get a better camera.

All right, let's talk first about what you're doing with this: 24-hour trading for some ETFs and some stocks. Um, my guess is that's something you're doing because you want to make sure it's available for customers, but also a way to bring in additional Revenue Yeah, as we look at it, Um, what this product allows is customers can now trade individual stocks as well as ETFs 24 hours a day five days a week and that makes us the first U.S retail brokerage to offer 24-hour trading of individual stocks. If you look at sort of the the equity markets and how they've evolved, the trading hours haven't changed since the 80s and in that time period markets have gone electronic, so it's time to to change that and to upgrade it and to make it more like software than a brick and mortar institution. And we're happy for what it allows our customers to do: manage their risk 24 hours a day and trade stocks and and make investments.

Uh, whatever time opportunities arise. let's talk about your monthly average users. they were up 400 000 sequentially, but you're still down to 11.8 million daily average monthly average, and the year earlier quarter. What do you see just in terms of who wants to trade? who's willing to get on onto the markets? who you think you can lure just in terms of growth, because it's a lot tougher to do in a down market like we've seen.

I've been very proud of of what we've been able to accomplish in these challenging macro conditions. If you look back a year ago, there were questions about how Robin Hood would do in a high interest rate environment. Obviously, we did quite well in 2020 and 2021 when interest rates were low and trading volumes were were quite high. But if you look at the past year we've Diversified the business and now 50 of our revenue is net interest revenue.

And along the way we've continued to innovate for customers, not just with 24-hour market, but also rolling out gold which gives customers 4.65 interest on their uninvested cash with 2 million in FDIC insurance which is very useful in this current environment and our retirement product which is the first Ira with a built-in one percent match. So um, in this environment there are opportunities to provide value to customers and we've been rolling out products that make a lot of sense and are are quite useful given the the market conditions. Net interest Revenue as you pointed out, was 208 million in the first quarter, that was up sharply I think it was only 55 million in the quarter a year ago. Um, part of what you do also is loan out money to people who want to use it to buy Securities and and that can be great for the customers? I Just wonder.

Are you confident that these are all good loans and that you'll be repaid? We've been. We've been doing uh, this business line since close to the very beginning. Uh, you're you're referring to margin lending and um, you know it's it's not a new thing for us. We have added uh, additional products for customers like stock lending which allows them to earn extra yield uh, on on their stocks that they may be holding at Robinhood which I think is also very useful to customers.

in an environment where there's less trading and they just kind of want to want to hold on to their positions. And that product line we've seen really fantastic uh increases of and it it's now um, combined with another product we launched approaching the size of our overall U.S equities business. So I think Um, yeah, you've seen perhaps other products become interesting to customers. but we we also see a core group of active traders that you know are a little bit more sophisticated and 24 our market with the ability to trade things like Tesla Apple and Amazon around the clock on weekdays.

Um Is is very, very useful to those customers as well. But how much are are you? not only your number of monthly active users, but the number of transactions tied to a rising market the first quarter? Um, look, markets did pretty well, but do you think it's it's something that's sustainable. even if markets are down for the quarter? Um I Think that you'll you'll see things fluctuate quarter to quarter a little bit. Um, long-term trends that we look at are net deposits into the platform? You know your last.

Um, your last guest was talking about all the outflows of the banking system. Well, Robin Hood Scene inflows in Q1 Um 29 growth of inflows of customer net deposits year over year. Um, which it was about 4.4 billion in Q1 One and a half billion. Uh, in March alone.

So you know as a lot of financial institutions are seeing customers take money out uh, we're seeing customers bringing money in and that be rather strong and you're also seeing um, yes, oh, go ahead, finish sorry, um and uh and you're also seeing increases in customer satisfaction. We've been able to drive net promoter scores of active Traders up 30 what and customer satisfaction. is going up at Robinhood 20 points year over year, which we're incredibly proud of. Shows customers are trusting Robin Hood Increasingly, in this uncertain environment, can you maintain your net interest? Is it just bouncing off a zero? There's no satisfaction? Like yeah, it's increasing.

We went from zero. Dude, we do collect a margin on that offering. So even though 4.65 for gold is industry leading, um, it's It's a sustainable offering for us and we're just taking much less of the margins than your typical Banker or other brokerage offering this product. Um, Banks, for example, are structurally prevented from Market looking a little heavy.

Not bad. They have this asset liability mismatch where they have more than Kres low interest rates that they took off actually during Covid and kind of the the long-term low-rate environment. So I think that's an opportunity for Robin Hood and our customers because they can't get the type of yields that we're offering readily for from from other participants. But how do you? I I guess I'm still a little confused as to how you're able to pay the 4.65 How that doesn't? um, cut into your margins at all? Yeah, it's It's a great product.

and um, we are offering a great product for customers. We have margins on it. But what? what we do is we sweep customer cash to a network of Banks and that's how we're able to to offer the two million dollars in FDIC protection over and on top of what you get from a typical Bank Um, and and we've seen a lot of growth in In Swede balances. Um, billions of dollars of additional growth over the past few quarters since we've introduced it.

Yeah, I'm sorry we're out of time I Would love to dig into this more deeply because I think I'm still missing something. but Vibe he didn't answer the question at all. He's like, yeah, it's a great product. hey, how can you offer that percentage of money? Oh yeah, it's a fucking amazing product.

dude. What? Um, maybe not necessarily the issue, but some sort of startling news from uh still coming out of the regional banks with Pac West as you can see right there, stocks down 79 citizens down 1.6 First Horizon Three Key Corp 1.7 pack West 19.8 and Western Alliance 1.5 I Make sure that uh is tomorrow Friday Yes, make sure you join us at tomorrow. Everybody's going to be in a good mood. Uh, Spock On the street is next Squawk On the street isn't it? Outlook Inflation pressure is easy.

All right, All right, All right, where are we at? We were talking about our Joe our Boy George Santos who found himself in a little bit of a legal pickle. Uh, we could talk about it a bit more later just because I Don't think it'll have much of an impact, uh, on the market, but it is still kind of a fascinating story so we could Circle back to that. but okay, if you guys watch my update video yesterday, do you guys like the update video? I'm getting some positive feedback in terms of the comments of it of like yeah, great I missed the stream today. thanks for the update.

They're about like 10 minute videos of just what you miss in breaking news, economic news, stock market news. Sometimes I try to make a funny and make you guys laugh and then other times I just literally just feel myself crying for 10 minutes. But in that video I was talking about some of the other political things going on in the world, the debt ceiling and also what's happening with George Santos And then I got yelled at because I didn't address this and I did address it I just honestly I addressed it during the stream and I forgot about it by the time I came to the update video I am well aware if the people who yelled at me uh I'm not somehow trying to protect the bidens I'm not trying to protect uh, the trumps I'm not trying to protect any of them I think all these politicians have like serious serious skeletons in their closet and I think they're all doing this to lie in their own pocket. I'm not saying one's better than the other It's just sometimes there's so much political corruption in a day.

there's literally not enough time within said day to cover all political corruption. So if you wanted me to particularly go into this one and instead I talked about: Santos I'm sorry it was an oversight I'm not trying to protect the bidens and we actually have crazy things to say about the bidens. And we also have crazy things to say about the Trump Well, Trump himself uh Donald Trump because of what happened on CNN yesterday which was wild but yes, uh, crazy things. Accusations came out against on only Joe Biden But the whole Biden family tree yesterday: Joe Biden's son Joe Biden's brother Joe Biden's brother's wife Hunter Biden's girlfriend or Beau Biden's Widow However, you wanted to write that I like that as a slice 100.

and three children of the President's son and the president's brother. So we're talking about grandchild. A grandchild. That's odd.

most people that work hard every day his grandchild doesn't get a wire from a foreign National or anything like that. So that'll conclude our our she'll find his fish Joe Biden's brother. All right. So what this is all about right here.

New House Oversight reveals that nine Biden family members that receive wire transfers from foreign Nationals via shell companies. Obviously, with shell companies, it seems as if you're going out of your way to hide it. And okay, I Get it. The people who like the bidens and particularly hate the trumps, you're gonna be like, well, what about the money that the Saudis gave Jared Kushner Okay, cool, that's messed up too.

I Want to make it very, very clear, all of these politicians are absolute douchebags and we're forced in a situation to honestly pick between the lesser of two evils and you can do in your own analysis and pick there. But I find it particularly upsetting and embarrassing for us. As a country that we're always in this situation of picking the lesser of two evils we shouldn't be for we should be picking between two phenomenal people and we're like, well, I think that guy's a little bit more phenomenal than this guy, but unfortunately we're not there. I Get it.

They all do messed up things. They all absolutely do mess up things. and um, speaking of just I Saw this yesterday and I don't mean to laugh because like this is an old lady who apparently is on the verge of death. Uh, and also this is a politician.

This is actually one of the most influential politicians, the highest seniority politicians currently in the game. So basically we have a little Walking Dead Rolling Dead lady having serious influence on the market and on politics and on the economy. and she's the OG Insider Trader I Know we talk about Pelosi But honestly, Pelosi Feinstein right here would give her a run for the money. Look at this.

This is a person with serious power. Serious power. Uh Feinstein is 89 and clearly isn't doing well. It isn't cruel to expect our leaders to be physically able and carry out the job they were elected to do.

It's cool to keep them in office when they are incapable of doing so. I Believe she was hospitalized for shingles and it's sad she's old. She has single like. My point is is this lady: I feel like we're almost like I feel like the political system is stealing time from her.

She should be spending out her remaining weeks months, years however long it is and I hope it's long and I hope it's healthy with her family. she's 89, but they're keeping her in there because the way seniority plays out and they want her in there because blah blah blah like she can get bills through faster. They're literally just using her for her age. like clearly this is not a capable, competent person.

It's sad to see and like we're That's what we do here in the U.S and it's absurdly messed up. I would hard I would argue it's highly immoral, but they're literally just using her for a position. Not that like she's like mentally capable anymore. she's not mentally or physically capable anymore.

Let's be honest with everyone. it's just it's sad that our politicians on average are just so they're getting older. and older and older like I I Don't get it. I Just this is because of how politics is set up in the US that you have to be there for a while and it's a whole seniority thing.

and it's just getting to the extent that we're electing people who there's no know no way that they're even close to their top mental or physical competency. and yet it's at those points when they're really trending down that they get high positions of power. and I just it blows my mind. So I see some people talking about age limits and I kind of agree.

I think it should be more of Competency limits like some sort of mental test because I'm sure there are people like I was listening to all of the Berkshire Hathaway conference and someone like Warren Buffett You can tell he's still there, like his brain is still ready to go. and obviously that sometimes is just genetics. it's uh, nature. it's whatever.

it's life decisions. There are people who can competently pull off what they need to. and Warren Buffett would be my example of like, yeah, no, he is there. He's put together.

He could pull it off. but then sometimes there's people who are like 50 and they're It's just like we're all different. Like not one age is going to be perfect for everyone. So some sort of competency test, but this, it's cruel.

Like this is legitimately cruel. All right. I Do want to talk about earnings. The major one was Disney and it did not do so well.

Disney Streaming losses improve even as subscriber numbers. Decline And if we take a quick peek at Disney, it is currently down 5.75 and it is going down and down and down. The Spy is cracking. Actually, now that we're talking about it right here.

the Futures Market below all the major moving averages. Yeah, we're starting that puke. City But let's see if it holds. Let's pay attention.

But Disney missed. That's why the Dow's down and then now new concerns in the regional banking sector. You guys get the point. Speaking of the regional banking sector: I Just saw this.

Can we have a, uh a talk? How many of you agree with this? Jamie Dimon says that short selling of Bank should be banned and those who do it should be prosecuted. Do you agree? Um, obviously. I fucking don't because I'm not short selling. but I bought a bunch of puts so like I don't know I'm using a derivative product I haven't actually shorted any of these I bought I Guess it's a net short position by owning puts.

But do you know what should be prosecuted? Do you know what should be banned? People in power lying to us? People like Jamie Dimon who are telling no, it's fine, the crisis is behind us. You have nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about whatsoever. What about all the retail and institutions that had FRC in their portfolio? Do you know what should be banned? You know what should be persecuted, Prosecuted Persecuted prosecutors. Is there a difference between those? Whatever.

It is the government, the fed, the Treasury secretary. Time and time again, the average person is straight up being lied to. This concept of when everything fell and then they try to stop it and everyone got on their Podium. Everyone grabbed their mic, they double fisted their mic and they said hey, it's strong and resilient.

You have nothing to worry about time, that's just the most recent one. Before that, inflation's transitory, you have nothing to worry about. Time and time again. we're being lied.

and then what. We're now going to punish people just because they realize that we're being lied to. and basically you could just do the opposite of whatever the main government. Wall Street Message is to us: I Don't think that is now.

Obviously it's different if you're being manipulative. If you're doing something that's not within the bounds of law, that's manipulative shorting. I'm not talking about that at all. but if the average person has the opinion that the banking scenario is worse than being publicized, why the fuck would they be? Why would that be a problem? And also just fun fact here.

September 18th 19th Whatever day it was that they banned Short Selling in the banking sector in 2008, That prompted a pop for one day. and you know what happened after that. It's still completely capitulated so it didn't do shit. We have evidence that banning Short Selling does nothing for Bank stocks like we did it a decade and a half ago.

And also just like morally, this is how markets work. If you were taking a legal legitimate short position that's called the markets Good like whatever, you're taking a bet, that's the same thing as if you're taking a legal legitimate long position. If it's legal and legitimate and above board, you should be able to do what you want to do. This concept of like, well, okay, we're gonna.

We're gonna stop the shorting now. but when random meme stocks run like Gme or Aim see no, no, you're actually allowed to short it and actually we encourage you to and in fact, we're going to stop the buying of it. They they pick and choose where they're going to implement these rules and it blows my mind. The major thing here to really Inspire trust in the system is consistency and transparency and those are the two things we are clearly missing.

We are missing consistency and we are missing transparency and this is just everyone probably talking their book and traveling like whatever the government told them to say it. I Don't know if he did or it didn't but like it just absolutely blows my mind that these people have like the balls to do this and say this when to me, it's tantamount to lying I feel as if the people in power the government Wall Street everyone in between is straight up lying to us and they don't give a shit and then they come back and be like yeah, no okay uh. actually we want to like call you a criminal if you did something just for us calling them out for being Liars I think it's actually complete horseshit I really really do I really really do so I wanted to get your opinion on that um for me like I guess I I found it personally offensive because like Jamie and I talk every day and he knows I have a bunch of puts so for him to publicly go out like dude Jamie I know you're watching right now. Just text me man.

we talk every night, we talk our books, we talk our positions. you know I'm short and now you're saying that it should be banned like bro. like it feels like a personal offense to me. same thing with Jerome Powell like when I talk to him when I talk to Yellen Like all these people say like this you see like when I talk to my boy Gensler and he's like we're looking into short sellers.

It all feels you know it's just starting to feel personal and I get it like obviously they're scared of the come up of course Capital The largest hedge fund in the entire world. or obviously that's where we're going. Uh, blows my mind blows My mind feels like it's getting a little bit personal. Speaking of things getting personal Hindenburg Research responded to Icon So right here published this morning: May 11th just for the whoa The markets I'll feel so good.

Uh IEP is now training just above 30. just above 30. it's trading at 30 50. it's down an additional 5.34 here.

Let me bring this up so you can see it. uh, getting rocked a little bit this morning and I guess the world is siding with Hindenburg Here they're signing with me and Ackman Apparently Icon's latest disclosures raise critical new questions about margin loans continue portfolio losses. so I want you to know about it? Unfortunately, we only have 15 more minutes until the Market opens, so we're going to be covering this after the Market opens. I Want to go through it in detail because that's another one I'm betting against I'm betting against IEP because I Looked at Hindenburg's research research through short report and I was like Wow feels like Carl Icon might be fibbon a little bit.

Um, that was my own deduction from reading the short report. but yesterday IEP Icon Enterprises came out with their earnings and they missed on their EPs And then also it was announced that they're being investigated by whatever U.S regulatory people at basically because of the Hindenburg research. And now this morning they came out. They responded to the short report as in Carl Icon, Enterprises did Icon Enterprises and then Hindenburg now and I know this is like we're just following the drama.

It feels like this is like middle school girl stuff. Uh, but there's a lot of drama. We probably need diagrams here, but what you need to know is they came out with the short report, then they responded, then they had earnings and now Hindenburg has responded back and obviously the markets are a little bit more in agreement as of now, at least the pre-market session. a little bit more in agreement with Hindenburg than there are our Icon so it's down 15 yesterday dropping another five percent and as of now I still have I already locked in most of my profits on IEP the first day Hindenburg came out uh, but I am still swinging my lotto position so I took about a third of my profits, a little bit of over third of my profits, and I put it back on the table and I'm just seeing how this all eventually plays out so we will be going over that.

I do want you to know that part of the reason the market rallied yesterday mainly because of politics So like we sold off all day and then there was some commentary from I believe McConnell I believe it was Mitch McConnell who said hey, yeah, like we're totally gonna solve this debt ceiling thing and then we popped into close even though he didn't give anything definitive but on top of it Google actually did really really well. Here's everything: Google Just announced a 1800 folding phone AI insert and more and the way for a bit there it was really really popular just to say Ai and whatever for a bit it was blockchain technology AI is the new hot buzzword if anyone says that on an earnings call in a conference. people like it and it goes up and that's pretty much what they did. In fact, if the regional Banks and honestly I will give out this piece of advice for free, the regional Banks don't even have to give me consultation on it and I'm saying something that would hurt my own position.

If you want Regional Banks to pop, just start saying AI just get on, be like hey no like we're now implementing AI so the deposit should be fine and people just are buying on anything they hear AI For a bit in tech there the trend was just say you're firing people and that gets your stock to pop. So I honestly think that if you if someone were to get on stage and be like we are firing half of our company with the use of AI I think we would actually hit an infinite level I think that might be an infinite money glitch. it'd be like we are using AI to fire half of the company I Think the market would be like this is this is the greatest idea we've ever heard of. So I just want to throw that out there if that could work for Google it could work for another Tech play I think it could actually save Regional banking I I Really do If a Regional Bank if Pac West came out and said hey, we're firing half our people through the use of AI and we will be using it in the future.

Pacquest might actually like short squeeze to the high heaven so we'll see how that one plays out. Let's see if they actually take my idea or not. but they had their whole like Google day thing obviously an expensive phone, foldable blah blah blah Ai and search. you kind of get the idea if you're particularly interested in it.

Uh, you can do a little bit more of a deep dive. The other big earnings thing was with Robinhood We just listened to Vlad and I think it's hilarious that they said that. What was it? What was the exact terminology he said uh, customer satisfaction went up or what was the word? Was it customer satisfaction? Uh, just that it was like popping or something. Was that it am I remembering that verbatim.

Whatever it was. Uh, I found that laughable. But yeah, their big announcement now is 24 hour trading Monday to Friday in a select group of stocks and ETFs which I don't know. feels like just a very quick way for everyone to lose their money I Love how Matt is so intelligent.

How else could he pull off facts out of 2008? Matt you were like 12. keep it up not so intelligent. Uh I have a a great team of people who support me. They help me with research I just can remember little factoids uh folks.

no don't you do not think of me as smart I I've made some dumb I've streamed to you the dumb decisions I've made I think in one stream I do more dumb things than I do smart things I like to just quickly forget about the dumb things I do and really hone in on the smart thing. So that's just a a classic streaming tip there. Quickly, forget about the dumb things and hone in on the smart things. But no folks, just some basic research.

and that's what you get when you have a solid team around you. All right? Disney Bringing Down the Dow Bringing Down The market obviously announced this morning was the PPI report I Want to see what's going on in the Futures Market We are dipping so the PPI came out at 8 30. What kind of here? I Just want to show you the little pop it gave us right here. 8 30 We popped a little bit PPI came in actually cooler than expected.

Uh, similar to yesterday. At first there's a little bit of a pop. It was a little bit more dramatic, a little bit more exaggerated yesterday, but then we ended up giving it back. But in terms of the economy, this was a good economic report.

As an inflation is coming down more than expected, the magnitude of the numbers is not so Bueno but at least we are trending in the right direction. I'm actually surprised that we're down this much and I think what it is is not because of the PPI report. I think the reason why we're down right now is actually legitimately because uh Disney Completely With, but more importantly, I think there is this renewed fear in the banking sector people realizing how serious it is. So Disney down almost 5.9 percent, almost six percent you have pack West down 23 you have kre down two percent.

The regional banking sector is taking a hit, and the numbers from the PPI report and also from the jobless Claims report were not good enough to outshine what's currently going on with Disney what's currently going on in the regional banking sector. Very quick check-in on crypto holding 27.3 K and uh oh Pepe Pepe I guess everyone's done buying Pepe So that's a little sad. I Thought Pepe was going to save the regional banking sector uh I suppose not I suppose not. Five things to know before that: Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today Thursday May 11th More muddling.

Well, yesterday was one of the craziest training days ever. We gapped up. we sold off hard. We sold off so hard we got the downside.

Capital We even broke the low of the previous day and then we ripped all the way back up to essentially have no change on the day based on open. But yet, it was the most wild whipsaw vomit of a day. And then all of a sudden a bullish explosion in the clothes. If you got whipped up yesterday, don't feel bad about it.

It was a really tough day. If you made money, congratulations to you. you're either a phenomenal Trader you're a hardcore degenerate or you're just the luckiest person. But as I said in the update video, when I see days like yesterday playing out, it just makes me remember that the stock market.

That's a misnomer. It should be a game called. haha. Now you're poor.

It doesn't matter if you were a bull or a bear, we're taking your money. That's what. I think the uh Latin translation for stock market is um I haven't taken Latin ever. So maybe my translation's a little spotty, but I'm pretty sure it's somewhere in that realm.

The New Frontier investors didn't care for what they saw out of Disney's earnings. Wednesday Almost down six percent right now, really dragging the Dow wit