Foreign, foreign house foreign yo what's up dudes? I'm not feeling the best which is unfortunate given the day. I think I might puke actually I don't know um but this is what it is. so buckle up buttercup because we're going on a ride. Um yeah, call in sick.

yeah uh. just text myself. hey man, didn't need the day off. You know it always just happens on days where you like have like so much more shit to do I don't know dude I like I don't know if I have like food poisoning or something.

dude my stomach is not something's up I feel also simultaneously hot and cold but you know this is what it is sometimes. I'm sorry I took enough day quilt what's on my face uh I took enough DayQuil to like actually murder a horse So we're gonna be a okay we're going to be A-Okay deaf bird flu I took one of the um a Rona tests and I'm negative I think I just I think I'm just a big old bitch. Um folks, lots of important things going on today. Lots of important things going on.

Namely, we see meme socks ripping. We have the Fomc result a little bit later on and then we also might get uh, an update on the indictment of former president. Trump So it's going to be absolutely wild days. It's actually going to be so wild that no matter how sick you are, you can't really take a day like this off.

Um, obviously things have been absolutely crazy. Uh, the Market's been absolutely nuts. So one solid option you have and we've been talking more about bonds. Uh, check it out.

So shout out to public they are one of their today's stream sponsors. Shout out to public: you can get a 4.7 yield on your cash backed by the government. Check it out pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video, but we're going to be talking more about that a little bit later. I'll give you all the details and whatnot, but check it out.

it is uh, pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Um, my mom just texted me is my mom what Mom I was sick on Sunday uh I don't even know what to say Back to that mom. Um, my mom was sick on Sunday folks. so like, like mother like son with a three or four day lag.

What is TTS time? What the hell is TTS Have my mom do the show. My mom can do it. she would. She'd probably be into it I think she could pull it off? It would work folks.

it's going to be a big old day. big old day. Uh I Don't know if you've been seeing what's going on in pre-market Overall: Market Pretty volatile. We have the banking sector pretty volatile and meme stocks led by Gme the OG most fun original stonk that ripped to the High Heavens and put Melvin Capital out of business.

Jimmy's up last time I checked like 47 in pre-market had a very good earnings report and it just ripped and ripped and ripped so that will be fun to watch today. The small banking sector will be fun to watch I've obviously I'm in FRC so I've been watching that one and then we'll watch the overall Market because it is a Fed decision day or you're going to get the results of the Fomc meeting at 2 pm. ET so that will be a whole separate stream and we're going to do it. So uh, 2 P.m ET we get the results and then at 2 30 the chairman of the FED Jerome Powell will be doing like kind of a press conference.

so that's going to be later on this afternoon. It's going to be massively important and then obviously at some point in the day I'm assuming we're going to get an update about the potential indictment of former president. Trump So uh, it's gonna be crazy. It's going to be really really crazy.

So everyone, buckle up, buckle up, buckle up, and let's get a little bit more prepped for the day. So here's what you need to know. Market yesterday at first was looking not the best. There was a downside Gap felt looked like it was going to go for it but ended up reversing course and ripped into clothes.

Right now we're still seeing a decent amount of strength. The Spy is hanging out at 3.99 right now. The pre. the post-market action does not matter to me whatsoever.

What matters is the Market's reaction. Basically, when Powell really gets speaking, there's going to be a lot of volatility. Today, there's going to be a lot of fake outs. Today, there's going to be a lot of craziness going on across the board.

So for me, I'm not going to be really doing anything. Yes, the robots are going to be trading for me. but I'm not going to be making any big bets or big positions before the Fomc in my opinion. and this was fully detailed in the newsletter that this is a reactive environment, not a predictive environment.

I Don't need to predict not only is what the FED is going to say and do, but also predict how the Market's going to react to those first two things. I'd rather just wait for the trend to develop and then hop on to said Trend. But once again, we're going to cover that in more detail. Definitely later on today.

Um, it's it's going to get crazy, the market open probably going to be pretty volatile. We're going to be able to watch fun things like Gme do its thing Tesla's been doing really well. Uh, FRC had a great first two thirds of a day yesterday, then sold off a little bit of I guess apprehension of or kind of what's the restructuring all we hear about First Republic Bank is how they're considered entering all these options and people are like, well, are you going to end up getting sold off for pennies on the dollar like Credit Suisse or what's happening Of course they're coming out saying hey, no Like our deposit situation, the deposit withdrawals are manageable, so it kind of depends on who you believe in this one. super Vol I Mean everything's volatile right now.

everything is just crazy crazy high volatility. We're like just a bunch of big swings. To the upside to the downside: this is one of those times where it's probably better to size down because you just don't want to get whipped out of potentially a good position if you look at the daily chart. for the overall: Market Here's the S P 500 uh, tracked by the ETF SP Why We do have a downside: Gap film to 394 17 that was created from yesterday's Gap Up Right now, we're apparently going to be opening in the mid bar of yesterday, so let's see how it goes.

Obviously: I want to go over the seasonality and everything with you but I do want to point out there's an upside Gap fill to 408 and there's a downside: gaffle to 395 for and I Think what a lot of people will be watching and have been watching is this: 200-day moving average? Roughly around 393. Uh, 393 200-day moving average. To put it in layman's terms, if we're holding above that in the short term I would personally be bullish if we're holding below it in the short term I would personally be bearish Stock features nudge lower as investors away. key Fed policy decision up until 2PM and then arguably from two to like 2, 30, 2, 35 there was a very very very good shot that we're just gonna have a bunch of chop.

Uh I I Cannot be more clear about this, but whatever Movement we have going into this afternoon. You might have some good scallops, you might have some good day trades, but it's a lot of Randomness There's so much volatility it's just people are going to be making predictions and we've seen this before. If this is your first time watching an Fomc meeting, it just gets absolutely crazy. Um, so for me, the name of the game today is going to be paying attention to any updates related to Trump uh related to the banking sector and I guess I Guess we could take in like opinions of like all the fancy fancy people with pedigrees on their wall that tell us but hey, you know what they say about opinions.

Uh, it really matters afterwards. So kind of tying it back to what I said before I Think it's much smarter and it provides a better risk to reward. Setup to be reactive, not predictive. I'm not going to predict how is the market reacting to what is or isn't said.

um, the decisions. The other I guess quantitative results like in the report I Think we just wait. We just wait for it all to come to us. As of now, the Dow is slightly green, the S P's slightly red, and Aztec slightly red oils unchanged.

yield going up ever like, just a little bit a little little bit. So this is the newsletter from yesterday. If you're not signed up for the newsletter, what are you doing with your life? it is a free newsletter Matt Cores.locals.com It's in the description of the video, but every single day after the market closes. I Give you a breakdown of what happened that day.

I Let you know the macroeconomic uh reports and big events for the next day. So obviously today 2 p.m we get to Fed interest rate decision at 2 30 we get uh, the press conference from the chairman of the FED Mr Jerome Powell I Give you the seasonality of the day today is leaning a little bit bearish. not extraordinarily bearish. definitely not bullish, but lots of chop like it swings down comes back up.

This is basically buying ad open selling at clothes over the past 25-ish years, 24ish years. uh and you could tell that it's leaning a little bit bearish. And then for those of you who care about what, I'm personally trading right now I've been doing a lot more iron Condors so you could see the where the account's at, where I'm at on the year, closed positions, new positions for the day, and all the current positions if you care about that at all. and then just my thoughts for like what I'm seeing and what I'm personally planning on doing my account but once again, this is all free newsletter.

it is in the description of the video or you can just go to Macquares.locals.com The main thing I need you guys to all know about for today is from a seasonal perspective. it is leaning slightly bearish. The Bulls have won this day 40 of the time. so like when it anything when it comes to the market, nothing's guaranteed I mean I could tell you here that it is leaning bearish.

but I mean the Bears have only won 60 of the time. so it's a slight improvement over flipping a coin. The Profit factor is below one I.E The fact that we have below 50 for the Bulls and the profit factors below one. That's exactly why it's leaning bearish.

but I just want to illustrate the fact that it's not going to play out that way every single time. I Mean it's a little bit better than flipping a coin. and you should also know that today's going to be massively important. Expect huge huge swings starting at 2 P.m Uh, I mean really, probably starting at like 158.

There's going to be big swings, Then there's going to be chaos all the way till 2 30. And then by the time he really gets into his conversation uh, his press conference, then we're gonna have a better idea of what the trend for the remainder of the day will end up being. So those are the main takeaways: I want you guys to have before that belt goes dignity ding ding ding today. Here's everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do today: Wednesday What is today? March 22nd I think I Get my hair cut in two days so that's exciting.

Man my lips are really chapped. I was up so much last night. like you know, like you know those times you randomly wake up and you're somehow it feels like your internal body temperature is 300 degrees and it's almost as like as you were asleep. Someone put your body in like the Sarah does it and you're just like like I woke up and it wasn't like dehydration.

but you know, like you just you just need to chug water like I was I was so dehydrated. my I was so hot my lips were cracking like I was gonna shove my head in a toilet and just like drink all the water I possibly could. It's fucking wild. Anywho, markets expect a quarter point rate increase from the Federal Reserve As of the time that we're talking about this, there is a nine.

Well there wasn't 90. Is this gonna load? There was a 91 chance. Fuck is this gonna load? Uh, when I looked at it this morning, there was a 91 chance. Oh, dropped a little bit.

88 Chance that we're going to get a 25 Bips right hike. As of now, the Federal Fund rate is at 4.5 percent. There's an 88 chance that they're going to jack it up to 4.75 So in my opinion, not that my opinion really matters here. This is probably the right thing to do if you come in a little bit.

If you come in unchanged, or if you cut it it's you're risking that. The public interprets that as the situations being worse than advertised, and the FED is just not giving us that information. But it's a really, really bad. Obviously if you go too much, if you do something like 50 bips and more aggressively fight inflation, you risk breaking more things.

So I think 25 Bips is the right thing to do. And that's obviously the odds are saying like there's an 88 chance that this happened. But what's going to be far more important is what Jerome Powell says in his conversation in the press conference and how he answers the questions. The FED could alter its post-meaning statement from saying ongoing increases may be appropriate to something that suggests a less certain Outlook.

So this will come out at two and we can read the I the statement right as it happens. So we're going to be looking for that. Uh, Most recently the verbiage was ongoing increases and it's probably going to be changed to something a little less hawkish. If I had to guess.

Fed officials will release their predictions for excuse me, projections for unemployment inflation, gross domestic product, and perhaps most importantly, the peak rate. where it will end its hiking campaign. This is referred to as the terminal Rate if you've heard of that before. Like: what's the terminal rate? What's the terminal rate? That's the thing that a lot of people are talking about.

Is it going to be five? Is it going to be five? five? If Is it going to be six percent? If you've heard any of this discussion of monetary policy, there's a good chance you've heard about terminal Rate. All you need to know about that. That's the peak. It's the high water mark of what we're going to do in this rate hike cycle.

As of now, we're looking somewhere. Fuck me. sorry, um, somewhere between five and six percent. A lot of people coming in in like the lower fives or like mid fives.

Um, so we're going to be looking to see what is said about that. Basically, are they kind of worried that things are going to get a little bit too gnarly and we're going to end at 4.75 Or is he going to say something along the lines of like, okay, like we're still going up, but maybe we're gonna like skip every other meeting something like that or they're going to be talking about rate hikes. The conversation today starting at 2 30 most likely going about half an hour will be incredibly important for setting the tone for the next major Trend in the market. What was that my algorithm is Trading uh Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's post meeting news conference will also attract much attention with Traders hoping for comments on how the Central bank will re maintain Financial Stability Well, that is one of their jobs price stability and uh, if you've seen anything going on in the markets lately I Don't think they've been doing the best job best job at it.

But what you need to know right now pretty much locked in that we're going to get a 25 Bips, right hike if it's a surprise. Either way, expect even more volatility, but it's probably going to be 25 bips. It's all about the conversation. UK Inflation rate breaks.

three-month stretch of declines with surprise rise to 10.4 You guys might have thought that we had it bad here at like, whatever, the low sixes. Uh, UK their inflation is cooking. Their inflation is very much cooking. 10.4 percent mortgage demand increases again, but interest rates are rising.

so a little bit of some funky stuff going on in the world of restate real estate. Yesterday we were talking about how the first time in 131 consecutive months that like homes have come down and year over year, they are now less valuable a home than it was a year ago. Uh, we. It's like a massive record actually that was broken.

Not the best for the real estate, uh. mortgage demand. Rose last week But Rising Interest rates may stand in the way of stronger volume. The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of 726k or less decrease from 6.48 uh, well, to 6.48 from 6.71 So coming down ever so slightly, mortgage applications to purchase a home increased two percent from the previous week, and we're 36 percent lower than the same week a year ago.

So the real estate sector in my humble opinion. Not that I'm some big real estate investor myself or anything like that, but just from following the trends and seeing what's going on, it does seem like it's continuing on this path of cooling off. Cooling off, cooling off. So I just wanted to give you guys a breakdown of some of the larger things going on.

But now let's get into some of the exciting things. For those of you who haven't noticed or been on Twitter lately. Uh, GameStop is up 51? Uh, you might be wondering why it's up 51 and it's because it absolutely destroyed earnings. Oh man.

I am not having the best of days GameStop socks stores after retailer posts first quarterly profit in two years. GameStop Posted a quarterly profit for the first time in two years. the company slashed its inventory levels and costs from a year earlier. GameStop Plans more Cost Cuts Cost Cuts This year I Know a lot of you are going to be asking me so I might as well just give you the information right now.

Uh, Gme currently has the short interest of 24 and the cost of R is 13.56 and the utilization is maxed out at 100. Once again, short interest 24 utilization maxed out at 100 while the CTB aka the cost of our is 13.5 What Is it live? The median thus far today is 54 for today. Um, but this will definitely be changing throughout the day. It's uh, be interesting to see how that goes.

but Jamie Ripping ripping ripping. It's ripping because of how good its earnings were. and then obviously you're seeing sympathy, uh, reactions and other related stocks because they're traded as pairs such as AMC AMC's up. It's up less because it's Gme the one that had good news, but they are commonly traded as Pairs and that's why you see uh AMC is up seven point two, six percent ape is up 7.4 But the big one? The exciting one to watch as of today is uh, get Gme up 51.

That is absolutely crazy. And here's what mainstream media had to say about it. Well look at GameStop after hours surging on earning Steve Kovac have the numbers Steve Yeah, John it's up 20 right now. It just hit up 20 after turning a surprise profit for a last quarter.

Uh, now we don't have uh, comparisons to analyst estimates. Doesn't have enough coverage. But let me give you the results here: Net sales coming in at 2.23 billion dollars EPS 16 cents a share adjusted and that translates to a net income or profit of 48 million dollars. We haven't seen that in a while from Gamestop but investors 11 of 24 now John Wow.

Um, Steve I Don't know how much looking into uh, the degree to which this stock is shorted you have done lately, but is this kind of move expected? It's reminiscent of the meme stock moves. Yeah, it is. It's it's not. It's unexpected that they turned a profit, but look, and they're saying they're crediting a lot of things.

Cost Cuts layoffs, Other efficiencies Like we've been hearing from so many companies over the last several months. and in addition to that, their Collectibles business. So moving beyond just straight up video game sales as a lot of those have shifted online, they're really leaning into that collectibles, uh, business. The other thing they're working on is this web 3 nft uh store that they launched last year, but that really hasn't gone anywhere.

So it's really about the Collectibles and the efficiency. of course, the profit. And worth noting as you just touched on, you only have three analysts that are still covering this name and I Don't think there was an expectation that we are going to get an Outlook from the company today and probably not. Probably not.

Questions from analysts during the call: Morgan It's a very short call Exactly All right. Well shares jumping and Steve Kovac Thanks for bringing us those results. Well, obviously as you can see the jump from yesterday evening with the very good earnings it's holding, it's clearly holding. Here's a look at it.

My question to all of you is uh, do you think it will hold into today? Because don't forget when we're talking about pre and post-market trading, the volume is far far lower. So huge volume Spike right when we got the results, but ever since then it's just low volume, low volume. Um, so it could easily continue in terms of bullish momentum or it could get smacked I Don't know. I Don't have a crystal ball but I would love to ask you what do you think it is? Do you think that some of the shorts are going to feel pressure? It is a 24 short interest? I Mean it's not as Grand as it was back in January of 2021.

At that point it was like a hundred twenty percent or 140 Something crazy. So it still has a very high short interest relative to the stock market, but relative to where Gme's been in the past. Not as high, but still considered really hot like the shorts are going to feel pressure because it's up 52 in pre-market trading right now. Um, do you think these people are screwed? Like how do you think it's going to play out? Uh, with you folks? are are you like? I Mean I Still have my Gme? Uh.

speaking of public, who is today's uh stream sponsor? um 100 short 100 long see who wins CRS All my Gme I mean I still have mine I Keep mine on public So I Love to see Pops like this. Obviously we have quite a ways for it to go to make up to. like its all-time Highs but it is really fun I Think it's definitely restoring some excitement within the retail meme. Community I Mean we're even seeing that quantifiably across the other meme stocks that are now getting a sympathy buy as well.

But that's why Gme's up doing very, very well. Uh, Nike's holiday quarter plagued by bloated inventory weak China Sales On the flip side: Nike not doing the best Nike Beat Wall Street's expectations for its fiscal third quarter earnings and revenue. The retailer has been contending with a glut of inventory and soft sales in China as the region recovers from The Rona period Nike Said it is taking a cautious approach to planning given worries about the consumer and the economy. So if you're looking at Nike I believe it is Nke not doing the best down two percent and a lot of people like to use Nike as just strength of the whatever.

I Guess we could call it the consumer, the average retail consumer. Um, so at first it popped, then we heard more about it and it just there are some definitely some serious drags going on in China hi Morgan it's a big beat for Nike. Certainly on the bottom line 79 cents a share. the expectation was around 55.

also on the top line as well for revenues 12.4 billion dollars. sales expectation was more like 11 and a half billion sales if you see where that came from. Really strong in North America which came in better than expected in Europe which came in better than expected. China is still the weak link for Nike where sales declined eight percent.

So clearly working through some of the covet issues and there will be questions on the call about what China demand looks like up to this date as China continues to recover. I Want to point out a few other key numbers: Gross margins. Everybody was looking for this because it has been a decline as they have to unload inventories 43.3 percent. that was pretty much in line 43.7 was the expectation and inventories.

Everybody was watching this Morgan and John because Nike had a high inventory problem. Because of all the shipping delays and the Cova delays, they were stuck with a lot of inventory. They're showing progress that was up 16 18 percent last quarter. that number was up 43 44 percent.

So continuing to move down as Nike unloads all the products. Overall, this speaks to the Brand's strength. It streaks speaks to a profitable company even in the face of difficulties like covet in the China market and of course foreign exchange and elevated shipping costs which all factor into that lower gross margin. But the Hope guys is that when the conference call kicks off, Executives will talk a little bit more about the Cadence in China throughout December January February but also potentially the lower inventories.

and whether that raises earnings estimates and margin estimates going forward because if they clean out that inventory, they don't have to do as much markdowns, which certainly weighs on profitability. But overall, guys, pretty strong snapshot around the globe. that's a foreign thank you. Unfortunately, the guidance not the best.

Okay, so the five things you need to know before that Bell goes. dignity ding ding ding today. Raise or pause the Federal Reserve Fomc meeting results today 2 p.m ET Jerome Powell has a press conference at 2 30. I will be streaming it.

So whether you're watching me on rumble or YouTube I will be streaming it. Uh, we can check it all out together. It will be crazy. Uh, a lot of people right now are just talking about what should it be.

How aggressive should the FED be? We have a lot of craziness in the banking sector. You guys know that I bought First Republic You know it's a completely degenerate Play It's binary. This thing's probably either going close to zero or it's going to return to its former glory. I Don't really see a middle case and unfortunately I don't know the odds of it I Bought some in my long-term account.

so I don't have to watch it day over day right now. I'm down quite a bit I just want to be completely transparent with you I'll let you know if I end up selling it I'm in it right now because I think that the psychological implications of what's going on are gonna be eventually appeased and placated by the government and feds decisions. That's my opinion opinion I might be wildly wrong I Want everyone to know but I thought it was, uh, an interesting dip. buy I Hope it works out obviously and I know a lot of you are trying to buy some of these.

We'll see how it goes. We will definitely see how it goes. Things will go wrong. So this is about the whole Google is fighting back with chat EBT and they have Bard and they're talking about oh like as they launch it, things will be wrong and blah blah blah so we could talk about that a little bit later.

Not the most exciting thing we talked about Nike and what's going on in China and Indictment Watch. So we talked about this yesterday and there was a chance that Trump was going to be indicted. It didn't happen. There's a chance it might happen today.

and it all seems to be about the classification of the payment that Trump's lawyer Cohen made the story of me. Daniels for 130k didn't basically not go public with the fact that they were sleeping together. It wasn't really anything about campaign Finance it was about the classification of the payment. So this is like a headline thing of like Trump indicted Trump indicted yeah, blah blah.

But when you look into what it is I just don't even think people that necessarily hate Trump are going to be like oh yeah, like that's a reasonable thing. The dude paid a person to not go public with the fact that they slept together because it was an embarrassing story and I guess the Trump organization who footed the bill classified it. In terms of legal expenses, they're like, well, is that even right? And it seems to be like a political hijab right now from the District Attorney's office in Manhattan That's what public polls are saying about it. Obviously, you're able to have your own opinion on all that good stuff.

Uh, but will he get indicted I Mean there's a lot of backlash against it. It's just out of all the things that he could legitimately be indicted for, this is what you go with. You would think that there could just be something more reasonable than the classification of a payment for sleeping with an adult actress. It's just kind of lame.

like I don't think really anyone cares. In all reality, out of all the things going on this like I think it's not going to get the public traction that it could become anything I Think the Public's gonna be like this is a waste of all of our resources and time. All right before that, Bell goes dingity ding ding ding What? I need you to know is it is absolutely no secret that the Market's been crazy lately. Uh, it goes up a lot.

It goes down a lot. Goes up a lot. It goes down a lot. And if you're watching this, there's a good chance that you're in it to make money.

Well, I Want to talk about something really, really cool? You can earn 4.7 yield on your money backed by the government. This is incredibly low risk because it's backed by the government and I would argue that if the US government doesn't pay the yield, we have probably bigger issues where you're not going to be worried about money. anyway. I'm talking about debt from the government.

We're talking about bills. We're talking about notes. We're talking about bonds. We're basically you're giving the money to the government and then they pay you back a little bit more.

And obviously the bills, notes, and bonds. They all have different maturities and for the longest time you had to use this website treasury Direct and it was confusing. And then there was I bonds and that only had a max amount and your money was locked up for a certain amount of time. And if you make an account on this, you're going to realize how difficult of a website this is to get through.

anyway. Well, Public has been making some really smart moves and they're like, you know what we're going to do all the heavy lifting. You a lot of you already know who Public is because we've been partnered with them for quite a while. It's a non-payment for overflow brokerage that now has a treasury account there and they do everything.

You're not going to have any weird delays, no settlement like that. Your money is not going to be permanently locked up for whatever time you could put your money in. You can earn these percentages and if there's a need for you to pull out, you can pull out. You can earn a 4.7 yield on your money.

To me, this is incredibly smart, especially in a distressed environment. I Recommend At a minimum, everyone check it out. It is pinned to the top of chat. it is in the description of the video.

or you could just go to Public.com but this is to get 4.7 yield from the government. It's not absolutely riskless, but in the world of the markets, especially if you're here to talk about some meme stuff, this is a very, very small risk thing where you're getting some solid money before. This was kind of boring and people didn't want to talk about it because the payments. the yield wasn't good.

But now because of what the FED is doing, we're seeing things Spike up. So this is absolutely phenomenal. I Recommend everyone listening to me right now. Check this out! You can go to Public.com It is pinned to the top of Chat.

It's also in the description of the video. Get that 4.7 yield from Good Old Uncle Sam Uh, right. And with that being said, the casino was opened a couple minutes ago. All right.

I'm just zooming in here. All right, we'll see how it all goes. Um, you guys have already heard my monologue about how I don't think it's worthwhile to do anything right at Market Open I Still very much believe that, especially on a day like today. I think the first 10 15 20 minutes are best to watch things open.

Um, it's one thing. if like things Gap in your favor or maybe you're past your risk and you need to cut a position I Get that. um I totally get that I'm talking about creating a new position I Don't think this is necessarily the best timing of the day to do it because there's just so much Randomness and Market volatility Market Churn right at open. So I think the best thing to do with Open is Lit.

The other suckers get involved here and maybe they get lucky. Maybe they don't get lucky. But in terms of us I think it's very, very smart in terms of risk to reward perspective to lit. the market build out a little bit so you can see some highs.

You can see some lows. You can see how people are positioning themselves and ideally make better trades. Are you gonna miss out on some big trends? Yeah, of course you are. But remember this is a marathon.

You're in this for the Long Haul You're in this too. Almost be a systematic person over a large data set. And what I'm referring to are all your trades. You're going to want to be like okay, or is my profit Factor multiplied out by my accuracy? Good.

Not every trade is going to be a winning trade. I.E Why you shouldn't go all in on one trade. But ideally if you have a good system, not every trade is going to be a losing trade. You just want to be slowly stumbling your way into more profitability.

And actually I think I could show you something interesting about that right here while we're waiting for the market to open. So a lot of you guys know that I have been doing my own algorithmic trading. This is on the Futures Market one on the NASDAQ on the left and then one on the S P 500 Over here on the right you can see it's fully automated. I wrote up the code and then it does the buying.

It does the selling and I just want to kind of show you how it's all been going lately. Um, just for the month of March we'll see how this is going. We'll see how it's going, we'll see how it's going and I'll show you actually how it can be improved. So this is a four thousand dollar account.

I started with and thus far in the month of March it is up 1.67 K. So almost up 1700 on a 4K account. So almost a 50 return. and this is actual money.

This is in the same account. This is my real money and this is how it's doing. So at first it did abnormally well, then it started to die. Now it's going flat and recently it seems to be picking up.

So when I am saying that you should be generically stumbling into the right way, this is actually kind of like, uh, this could be improved because if anything, it was kind of subtly like stumbling downward. and then recently it got improved. and there's a couple of things I know I want to do with the code that I think will have better positive expectation. but this is what I'm talking about in your account.

You should almost have Equity curves like this like you're not going to have every winning trade like every trade It's impossible. It's impossible for you to be winner in every trade. It's just not going to happen. You have to almost rewire your mind and think about it generically Is your P L stumbling slightly higher and higher and higher? You're going to take some hits.

Um, and like I said at first this was pretty good. but the way this was stumbling down I mean that would have actually been a perfect example of like what I want going to the upside. and at first it did really well and that's why I'm thus far positive on the month, but it's been going flat. But recently I made a couple alterations and now it seems to be picking back up.

So I'm excited to see how today plays off. I just want to be completely transparent with all of you of what's going on. Not everything is as like amazing. It's like oh, I make all this money every single day.

That's not real trading. That is absolutely not real trading. And the people who try to like get you to believe that that's a thing. Uh, they're charlatans.

There's no way if if it was that simple. Truly, if people were just like yeah, I know I'm making so much money all the time and so easily. Uh, they wouldn't be on social media. They would have some giant hedge fund somewhere.

they would be making billions and billions of dollars. Um, they're full of shit. They're full of shit. This is what real training is that you are ideally roughly right above 50 or somewhere in there.

but your your wins are better than your losses and you're kind of just stumbling up stumbling up, stumbling up. That's how actual profitable. Traders That's what their Equity curve looks like, especially if you're an active Trader an investor. That's a completely different story because you might be buying like something like Warren Buffett Coca-Cola and you just hold it for years and years and years.

I'm talking about people who are active day Traders Active swing Traders Your goal is like you're not going to hit every trade and that's why I'm always pleading with you the importance of risk management because as you're going up like you're going to take some losses, so can you control the size of those losses? That's probably a major major thing that I think a lot of us have a tough psychological time like actually dealing with. uh, just because you want every trade to be a winner. uh I've been there I think we've all been there, but that's just not what a real successful Trader Uh, how they think of the situation or even how their Equity curve in their account is going to end up looking. uh Ned is live in the Bahamas with Tupac no Ned's right there Ned's crushing it Ned actually has three you guys can't see Ned but he's back there.

he's chilling. He has three new like roasts on top. Ned's crushing it uh gme uh, falling since open but still up 39 Tesla smacked at 200 all the way down to 198 but now back up to 200. Looks like the Spy is picking up FRC What is my I Know we just looked at the account but what positions do I even currently have? Um, the strategy is currently long in the NASDAQ and it is flat in the S P 500.

The NASDAQ trade is currently up seven dollars. So pretty huge money as you can see profit Target nine, four four and then a stop loss at eight four. Um yeah. as long as the NASDAQ gets going today, as long as right here, I'll show you it is long on this.

I am not trading The Minis I'm trading the micros which just for those of you who know about Futures it's just a much cheaper contract because as you can see, the algorithm is not exactly what I want it to be and it requires some improvements. Uh, so as I'm improving it I don't want to be betting the biggest money, but anyway, it looks like the current. It looks like it's shooting for profit up here. I think at four four, I think he's trying to collect profit all the way up here.

Uh, so we'll see how it goes. Honest question: Why have you lost 1K Subs per month in the last three months? Uh, Manny it's actually even longer than that. Uh, and I believe it's because uh well it's twofold. Uh, one's Technical and one is more of like societal.

So a lot of my following uh came exclusively for live streaming the Insanity of Gme and AMC and because Jimmy and AMC haven't been insane. Um, they don't That's what they subscribe to me for. So those um people are leaving uh, more from a technical side is at one point in time in June of 2021 I was actually like the biggest streamer on YouTube for that month. and when you're the biggest streamer, there's a lot of Bot accounts and YouTube commonly goes through and cleans up all of the bots.

So I believe there's a non-negligible percentage of my subscribers that like not really a bot attack, but that's probably the best way for me to articulate it. Where I mean we've seen them before. You know, if you look at Live on YouTube there's like all those weird Elon Musk ones are Kathy Wood ones and they had like 10 000 viewers. Those are all fake actually.

uh there is some I mean you guys can see it. It's like not that hard. uh but there's other Finance streams right now that if you just compare it like they'll have higher views right now. uh, concurrent viewers.

But then if you look at their chat and like the engagement, you can tell that they bought those concurrent viewers. It is not hard to buy concurrent viewers whatsoever on pretty much any form of social media. Um, so like there's my point is is that someone out there has a bunch of scripts that can spin up a bunch of emails. They make a bunch of YouTube accounts and then they just start like screwing with it.

So I think YouTube goes through and cleans up a lot of those. So I think that's part of it. But then also, um, the Market's been really shitty. so people don't really want to think about the market when it's shitty and specific to me.

Uh, when AMC and Jimmy aren't going crazy. That's where a lot of people even know me from in general. And then on the flip side of it, particularly people who are sick of hands for Adam Aaron I've pissed a couple of those people off? Uh, because I call out Adam Aaron for what he is. At one point I very much respected him I thought he was on our side.

but I think all the evidence since then has shown that he's only in this to line his own pockets. and when I share opinions like that, there are people who have like a single digit IQ who can't like handle that like mentally. you can tell that they start to break. So um, it's a couple like I piss off some of the AMC people.

The markets are not as exciting and crazy that type of stuff and also Bots I would say just my opinions I don't know. Um, so you're saying you bought a bunch of accounts and now they're gone? No, not at all. Those accounts are actually probably a big reason of why. like I think a lot of these accounts were like almost like made to attack me I think a lot of them reported my account like spun up a bunch of bots, did a mass report and then I think that's why I was probably terminated at least one of the three times was from a bot attack.

Um, and that's like where the whole harmful and dangerous thing came from because I think these Bots were programmed to all at one moment Mass report me and then I think it overwhelmed YouTube system I think that's one of the times that I was taking down and this is all Theory But I mean I don't need to buy viewers I mean you guys can see like it's real, it's organic, You can see how chat flows, you can see all that stuff. and then if you compare it to some of these other streamers, you can tell who you. you could so easily tell who's buying. Um, signed up.

Thank you. Who else is trying the Uh so I myself am now rocking with public and the treasury account and all that. Um, I was just curious who else is doing it? Do I talk to Trey anymore? no no no no no uh there's very public and very private things that lead me to believe that Trey is a bad actor in this whole. Community I've heard some um, pretty bad rumors but also rumors are rumors.

but in terms of like what I know and just like the times that I've been like hey man, um you're putting out false information like and he's like oh well I can't take down the video um I think he's just a kid who doesn't really know anything about the market and he caught a wave I mean he started his channel in December before everything went crazy, he started trading in October um, he's not a person who's been around the block multiple times and uh I think there were times where I would present him with evidence that he's intentionally promoting hopium and copium and he just wanted to do that. He seemed to care more about the social media aspects I mean even right now like just dumb shit. like if you look at his pin tweet, it's um, mark my words AMC like has not seen its all-time high or something like that. That's fucking stupid.

It's just when you see people continually playing into the hopium and copium, it's fucking dumb. It's dangerous. Betray was good at reading charts. He was pretty good at technicals I will I'll give him that I don't like I mean I would talk with him about other trades and like he actually like made some good trades.

uh I'm talking more about like Market structure and things related to like dark pools and short ladder attacks and things like in the world of like kind of Dave Lauer where like he would just promote these fucking theories that made no sense. Uh, your mic volume is really low today. How about now? Is that any better? How does your volume output low compared to your videos? How does your volume output low compared to your vids? Uh, what does that mean Devin Well, you promoted FTX but did that make sense? I mean the FTX thing and we like I mean I've talked about it like of course it was a misstep, but in reality who could have possibly known? It's like the same thing as like, um, Svb. Are you really arguing that like any depositor should have been able to like somehow? like in a weird way, Svb and FTX have a lot of similarities, undisclosed, unrealized losses.

That's what was going on. None of it was public information. um I get it and like it's easy to attack a content creator for something like FTX but in all reality there was no public information that any sponsor I mean we're talking they got money from every VC we're talking that it was vetted by lawyers of fancy people like Tom Brady and whatever. um Kevin O'leary all the way down to everyone and you're like oh okay yeah no I um I I think people should have known it it it's kind of just like a low blow that people like to look at it yeah I mean and I dropped them in June like everything blew up in November I got done early with them and I wish I could have told you I wish I could have told you be like no like I thought something was up in reality the person I dealt with at FDX I just thought he was a douchebag and I didn't like dealing with him I thought he was an absolute asshole and I just didn't like how he like conducted business so I was like you know what we're done with it I dropped them early and like I said I wish I would have been like the person like no I think something's going on but in reality no one knew, no one knew whatsoever and I think that standard that people are trying to be held to like well you should have known.

it's like how the fuck could have anyone known it just doesn't It doesn't make sense and also uh, of course when anyone lives loses like any money like that's just a shitty thing. You don't want to see people losing money, but from a moral perspective the fact that I was always very very straightforward of the fact of not your keys, not your coin FTX was a great place to buy crypto I Was never a fan of leaving it there because I'm not a fan of leaving your crypto on any exchange, not your keys, not your coin I would say put it in your own wallet. ideally a cold wall. In my opinion, the best thing to do with crypto.

so FTX was really cheap. It was a great great place to get your crypto and the people who got screwed are the people who left it on the exchange which you shouldn't be leaving it on any exchange. But if you're thinking that like every person who ever takes a sponsorship should be at the level of hacking into FTX Realizing that there was back door code to Alameda and then also hacking Alameda and realizing that they had a massive loss I mean it was all again. everything that happened with FTX was against what was publicly written on Ftx's own website like I Would you would read it, look at it'd be like no, we're not taking your funds, blah blah blah they lied.

There's a difference between not doing DD and then also being lied to and I Think that is, uh, completely missed. Did you see the plain bagel video in FTX No I didn't Why? What did he say? Uh, the point is, none of you known what's going to happen, but you also hyped AMC I mean I was in AMC Um and I told you I shared all my opinions. So with AMC the first time I really ever got shit on AMC when I was told people like yeah, it's completely fine to sell um I was that was like the first time and that's why I was like always within the community like almost like the strict mom of the group because I was like yeah, do what you want if you want to lock in your money and sell sell um so if you're gonna say hype AMC well first of all I was just always honest about AMC I was never the person saying it had to squeeze I never gave anyone price targets and I told people yeah if like it's always risk reward I never guaranteed shit I I still have AMC two today I have it. um and at one point yeah was I a little too close to see like the forest or the trees from the forest of the forest from the trees or whatever the fuck that idiom is probably.

but I also thought like Adam Aaron was on our side but also I'm the person that is willing to be like yes folks I messed up. it appears as if Adam Aaron isn't on her side I'll go against the grain because it's something that like I believe like I'll present my evidence to you and be honest about it opposed to these people who it's so easy to still just hype and hype and hype. Um, of course I'm going to make missteps. Uh, all I can possibly do is be honest about everything at every potential turn.

and Junction that's what the job inherently of even a Trader is. and I would also argue with like a moral human being, it would be far more problematic with all the new information to still just be like yeah, this is so good. this is so good. oh my God it's great Adam Aaron fucked us all over.

Um, that's that's what it is did Trey mislead people about his health I have no idea what do I think about Shiba inucoin another pump and dump another clear pump and dump. This is I mean if you look at Gme, if you look at AMC if you look at Doge if you look at you, this is all in weird way. uh, or a strange way. a side effect of what happens when there's money flooding into the system.

you're getting stimulus checks. Interest rates are extraordinarily low. That's it's all a side effect of it. Like the what we saw with, like, almost like, these manic explosions.

To the upside, that's what happens when you have an incredibly dovish monetary policy. When you have too much money, money is too cheap, money's flooding into the system. Of course, you're going to cause inflation and everyone's buying and spending like a drunken sailor. It's happened in the past, like it happens, like it's not like it was a surprise out of anywhere.

Um, and that's a strange thing that people don't seem to like currently understand about things like Doge and cheap and Gme and AMC is the environment. The overall economic environment that allowed those to happen are not currently there. Think about that time, people were getting stimulus checks. we were doing quantitative easing.

Like one of the most hardcore phases of quantities quantitative easing ever. People were locked inside, assuming more content, and then it was very easy for there to be a quote unquote, populace uprising of like, fuck it like let's scroll over Wall Street Like right now, the environment is wildly different. People are not locked inside anymore. People are not getting stimulus checks anymore.

The we are actually extremely hawkish. We're quantitative tightening. We're not quantitative easing. but yet that seems to like.

There's people out there, especially on social media who are still trying to do like this hype bullshit who are acting as if it's like the same thing as it was in 2021. We are in a wildly wildly wildly different environment. I Mean it doesn't take a rocket scientist to check here. Let me show you this.

So oops, let me clean this all up for you so we can see it a little bit better. So the same time that she been Doge and everything ran was this period here. If you look in late March of 2020, It all started to pop and then the craziness happened here in January of 2021 and the whole like everything was a bubble. everything was ripping ripping ripping.

This is the overall market and then if you kind of look at the downfall of things including the overall Market Well it pretty much all changed when we got into 2022 because we went from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening. the almost like from a higher level economic view, there was a massive regime change and to think that things are just going to be so easily popping as they were in this period. Well you have to give me the number of your drug dealer because you're on some pretty good shit because we are in a wildly wildly different phase and I think a lot of you listening, you understand that you're like, okay, cool like the we have a whole new uh regime of monetary policy. Like what? What are the new rules of this? like current game or at least this phase of the game.

But then there's like a small a very small vocal minority who doesn't seem to understand that at all, like they're still like it doesn't take much for you to go on Twitter and be like oh okay, people are screaming about fucking like dark pools and short ladder attacks and they don't even know what they're like talking about. Uh who do you think? Paid trade to pump AMC I Have no idea if he was paid, he might have been I don't know I don't have any evidence to suggest that he was um I assume if he was paid then I would have gotten an offer to be paid to like pump shit and I was never offered to pump AMC or to pump Gme. It was just like something that I was personally interested in. So I made content related to it.

Um so I mean maybe he was but also I don't have any evidence that would suggest that. uh, what do you think of Keenan Grace I haven't watched any of his videos in a while so I can't fairly comment I didn't it's whatever's going on with um YouTube Well first of all, I've been watching Rumble a lot more so that's probably part of it. But I mean I know who he is I've seen this video back in 2021 but he's not on Rumble and then even if I'm on YouTube I'm not served as stuff. so I like just it just doesn't come across.

Shout out. Epic chicken. Uh uh. I didn't know either.

It was just a degenerate gamble. If you purchase treasury bills through public, you're actually purchasing. Uh, they are banking it. And because this is stupid risk I'm just buying Direct no pause, they're pushing through.

That is who is facilitating the laddering. So I see you talking about public over here. So remember obviously with these bills notes, and bonds, they have maturity dates. So this is the group that takes care of all the laddering for you.

of like okay, like this one is now mature so we'll take it and throw the money into the next one. And if you're doing it yourself, just on. like Treasury Direct. First of all, the website is ass but you're gonna have to handle all of your own.

all of your own. like laddering. Um, it is far far easier just to do it on public. They are banking it and can lose value.

Well, that's what happens with bonds. But the way there's enough critical mass that they're doing it through on public that you're going to get that yield apy over the year. But if you need to pull out earlier, you're allowed to do it. You're actually taking on a lot more risk doing it yourself because a lot of the times you end up needing money earlier than you think you do.

Why don't you just buy low and sell? High Then you win every time. That's a fair point. Uh, you should set up a group talk with the rest of YouTubers to touch base and get each point of view. who would make would make for good content.

Who are you referring to Trond I Think most of these people have quit now like they were there and their knowledge was very specific to like one event and like that's kind of now evident. like like a lot of these people have quit like a lot of financial YouTubers are falling off now. Um, just because across social media Finance views are way lower because the Market's been tough. so a lot of people think about it less like it's just this is not I mean ever since the explosion of content and influencing quote unquote, this is the first bear Market that we've ever seen and you can see it in everyone's numbers.

Uh, that everything is just down and down and down. Um, so a lot of people are. There's some people I like to think of myself as one of them trying to like, just like muscle through it and deal with it and like understand that we just have to wait for the next phase to start. but um, some people they probably have other things to do and need to continue to pay their bills.

And with the drawdown, they probably didn't prep when things were great and squirrel away enough money to get through the tough times. Uh, content exploded when it was an easy bull market. Oh yeah, 100? well and that was like that has so much to do with the psychology. When it was an easy bull market, people were just buying, they watch it go up and then it like it was great.

It was Uh, it was easy. All you had to do was buy and you wait. And you made money buy calls, get them far enough out and it was like you would crush it and like that was like the hype of it and it was so much more psychological. But now that you can see all this well, now you're seeing that that phase isn't there.

You're seeing everyone drop off because those people don't know what they're doing outside of that world. They like all they were capable of doing was talking about like hype and just buying like then screaming about it. But now that things are a little bit more difficult, you're seeing a very, very, um, clear and volatile drop off. But the content on the way down was good too.

I mean for me I I enjoyed doing it because I thought it was a big learning opportunity. like yeah at first I'm sure a lot of you found me through whether it was Gme or Doge or AMC or Sheba and that was very specific to those things. or Market structure or dark pools or talking about that type of stuff. or maybe you learned it for like when we just generically talked about options or like that type of Evergreen content.

but recently, um, for me, what's been exciting and I know it's dry. To some people it's like I feel like we're legitimately learning uh I feel like my knowledge of now monetary policy and Banking and how that like I get that it's not as exciting in terms of like surface level hype. But for me I actually find this phase really exciting because I feel like we're legitimately learning a lot of things about like the economy and how everything's interwoven and monetary policy and the implications of the FED doing this and that. So to me in terms of our marathon in the market and ideally making more money over the long run.

Um to me: I Think this has been an invaluable like educational process over the past year because I just feel like the overall market. We've all learned so much. Why doesn't your chart reflect Jamie up? 33? Um, it does. What are you talking about right here? 33 Gme uh is today the FED meeting? Yes.

So the Fomc results will be posted at 2 Pm Eastern and then Jerome Powell The chairman of the FED will be speaking at 2 30 and we will be doing a stream of that. but I will have to take a break in between this stream and that stream. So I can just take A Fistful of DayQuil and survive through that. Um I Think the market will run again once Trump is back in office? Well that's kind of an interesting question as we're waiting for like today to play out.

I Feel like today is just a little bit more of like a chatting day? Uh, epic chicken with a 20? Super Chat That's so that's so kind. Um, if our two options are Biden and Trump Trump's one in the past Biden's one in the past. who do you think will win the next time around? and I'm not saying who you want to win I'm not saying like your biased I'm saying who do you think will actually win like if you had to throw out your opinion of just like the state of whatever the economy spending, social issues. the Electoral College like all that, if it ends up becoming Trump and Biden and I mean just two old old geriatric men which is kind of sad.

um the old white guy? Yeah, that's what I was just thinking like as I was singing out loud I was like really our options are two old white dudes again uh I think Trump I want neither. That's fair. That's one thing. Can you explain the difference between turnover and a volume and what it means for Price Action um I guess I would need an example of how you're using turnover.

Volume is very much a term that's like, well like that's just how many shares are traded like bought and sold simultaneously because for there to be a buyer there has to be a seller. so it's the total amount of shares exchange. But for turnover I would have to know how you're using it. um because bit racist.

Oh I thought it was a bit more ageist. um I'm just tired of having old people that I mean I don't know if I'm shocking anyone here, but I think it's pretty well documented. The older you get, your brain's just not firing at the level that it used to. but obviously as you're older, you have more experience.

So I think there's a happy medium between experience but also your brain as an organ functioning well. Um I think there should actually be an age cap? um on being a president I Really do I think I think The Sweet Spot between like your brain working um, it's not going to be optimal, but working very very well and then also having enough experience to like be a good leader I think that sweet spot is between 50 and 60. Um I really really do I think 50 to 60 is like the sweet spot that people should be in not just president, but probably in all forms but like also that's tough because like you have to play the political game which but that's also inherently bullshit of how that all works. Yeah, um, strongly disagree.

Montgomery Burns is still totally with it Well I know some people are with it, but okay if he's with it now, imagine how much more like Sharp he was I mean if you I don't know how many of you guys have seen videos of Biden from the 90s, he's a completely different person. now. he can't get through his single speech without like fumbling some form of words. but in the 90s.

the dude could talk. and I'm not saying if you like Biden or not I'm just saying the different like. As we get older, our brain slows down like I Don't think I'm like shocking anyone here um at all, but relative to his speaking ability. Now if you rewind two decades he he was a far far far better speaker.

Um I met Joe Biden when I was 18. he tipped me ten dollars at Home Depot for loading Quick Create into his truck. I Still didn't vote for him. well at least you have that 10 bucks.

His voice is worse than his haircut. Are you talking about me? Lemon Curd? It is a big week for me. A lot of you guys might be thinking it's a big week because Gme's going crazy, the markets are going crazy. Um, but it's actually a big week for me because it's a haircut week.

I Was supposed to get my hair cut tomorrow, but then I decided that we should listen to The Tick Tock testimony in front of Congress So I had to move my big haircut day to Friday So if I show up on Monday and you people aren't congratulating me on my haircut, we're gonna have a problem. We're gonna have a really really big pr