Oh hey! Oh, oh, hey! Welcome! Back to the show. You know this one got started a little bit early, but it's just because i had to do a deep dive into various things. So this half hour power hour show is gon na be a lot of stuff. It's gon na be a lot a lot of stuff, so we really need to get into it.

We're going to be talking about what happened with the halts yesterday, particularly through the lens of gme, we're going to be talking about the details of the halts, we're going to be looking at some of these brokerages, particularly revolut. We're going to be talking about. What's going on with mullein we're going to be talking about forge frge, we have a lot to get into and then we'll just do kind of, like the day, end wrap up with the short interest and all that stuff for the over market. The spy, the q's iwm, if you took the spy trade that i posted what i was doing in locals - that one is up a lot right now.

So if you did that you are crushing it so we'll be going over a lot a lot of stuff. So with all of that being said, since we are running low on time, let's make this lickety-splickity, let's get right into it right into it right into it. So, yes, here's mullen, crushing it right now, up 25 we'll be going over what's happening there gme currently down 4.9 amc, currently getting hit kind of hard today down 12 percent and then frge the other one we'll be talking about a new spack play that is currently Up 64, so that's just your little quick snapshot. I wanted to talk about the spy uh right here is on, i guess, locals.

Well, of course, i made my dark pools a little bit too dark uh. I better be fixing that hang on anyway. It was right in here you get the idea. This was like uh, we have that gap-fill play and the gap-fill play is still live down to basically 456., so still feeling pretty solid about that one.

But what's coming back to that, let's talk about what happened yesterday and let's particularly talk about: let's do this through the lens of gme, but it is still pretty applicable to what we saw in amc. Actually, i'm gon na need to switch over to this time frame. The three minute so early early on yesterday, early early yesterday, uh hang on. Let me get back all the way right here.

We saw some halts. The halts occurred around nine. I believe 37 yeah, because here's the hop from 9 37 to 9 42. here is right.

Where the halt went, as you can see, jimmy opened in the realm of 188 and then quickly shot all the way up to 199 came all the way down to 192 and that's exactly where we got a halt and then a couple seconds after that amc. If you look at their charts also had a halt. Well, we have some new information about this and i liked it retweeted it myself from my own account. You could find it.

This is a write-up from dave lauer. You got to check this out, but i want to go over some of the important details of it. This is his write-up, so once again, shout out shout out to dave lauer the conflict of interest feedback loop, strap in because this really is nuts. So yesterday, on tuesday march 29th, at 9, 37 and 57 seconds jimmy was halt limited down, because we had a brutal move to the downside from that.

What was it uh, 100 and like 999 level to like 182, roughly whatever that rain realm is? It was too fast in two quickvid times, so we got a halt limit down uh after trading at 182.79 at 9, 37, 57 on off exchange, the high price that was printed right before that was 199 and 41 cents, and this came at 9, 34, 58 and Then once again, at 9 35 in the morning, so basically from at 9 35 a.m. Just after five minutes of opening gme was trading at 199.41 and then, as you can tell about three minutes later, there was a decline of about 16.62 or 8.3. In almost three minutes uh, obviously this triggered a halt was a result of the nbbo. The national best bid in offer crossing below a lower price ban determined by the limit up limit down.

So remember we're looking at basically the nbbo, the national best bet in offer cross five percent below a reference point, which is its arithmetic, mean for the last five minutes of trading. If you want to know how these are calculated, it's not as simple as just saying. Oh okay, like did we move five like it's not like. We just have a basic band.

Well, it is a band. That's five percent up five percent down, but the band is centered around the mean value and if you want to know how that's all calculated it's in here, but basically the whole band is ten percent. So you have the mean in the middle five percent up five percent down. If you go outside of that, that's going to trigger a circuit, breaker hole.

This was a big discussion that i didn't even know was happening yesterday that there was a lot of maybe confusion of saying the fact that we halted it in itself proves that there's manipulation. No, it's not like. These are weird rules and there could be better rules like it's kind of like putting a band-aid over a gunshot, but this functioned as it was expected to now. If you think that the rules themselves are dumb and silly well, that's fair but understand how these are actually calculated.

It's you have a band. That's moving around. It almost looks like a bollinger band. It almost looks as if it were right here.

This is not exactly the bands that i'm talking about, but this is, if i had to show it graphically. This is exactly what it would look like. You would have an arithmetic mean in the middle. You would have five percent up five percent down and then, as soon as you go on top as soon as you go on bottom in terms of the nbbo, if the the bid goes below, if the ass goes above, that's what would trigger the halt um.

Obviously this is just a keltner channel. This is the one i'm talking about, but graphically. This is a very similar thing to visualize how these things are actually computed. So if you want more of that information i'll put this out there and then it goes into.

How is it calculated and you can see um? They have different tranches for the first opening five minutes and then from 9 35 to 4 and there's just various things, and then you have different rules from 9, 30 or 3 35 to 4 p.m. In closing, there's a lot of different rules. All the information is here. I want to make it explicitly clear.

The fact that we halted on both amc and jimmy in itself is not manipulative. It is not some crazy conspiratorial thing. This happens every single day in the stock market. It's very common, there's over 5000 different equities, the chance of one of them having uh volatility to the point that we get outside of these bands.

It's gon na be high, like you're gon na most likely see, on average at least a halt a day, something in that i don't know the exact metrics. That is not where the craziness lies, the crazy. It is a crazy scenario, but probably for a different reason than you're expecting, let's get into that, so basically gme dropped 16.62, which was 8.3 in three minutes, which means it violated the lower ban of this volatility ban that we had, which the mbbo the national best Bid went below the man, hence we prompted the hall to set up how this is crazy. You have to understand a few things.

Every exchange's quotes were removed from the sip data feed within one millisecond very, very fast, except for two exchanges operated by the c b. O e and b z x it took about five milliseconds and edge x, now edge x is the one that we're really going to be focusing on for this discussion. Before getting into that, you need to understand three very important things about market structure. The sip is a public data feed and, as you're about to find out, people pay a lot of money for it and, broadly speaking, the official record of public quotes and trades generically.

You can think of kind of like the time and sales like. So you have all the quotes, all the trades going through. You can generically we've seen that running. That's probably the best thing to for you to picture mentally.

In your mind, right now, everyone in the market pays lots of money, they're the ones paying to maintain the sip hundreds of millions of dollars a year, but it's not as simple as like. Well, if they're getting that much money, this should be a perfect system. Not so simple, however, if the sip works too well, then that would cannibalize the exchange's sale of private data feeds from the exchange themselves. We're not talking about market makers, we're not talking about brokerages right now, we're actually talking about actual exchanges, selling a private data feed which are faster and have more information on them, which represent a huge chunk of revenue for these publicly traded for-profit companies.

So they want this sip to be good, but they don't want it to be so good because, like it, this dave wrote up, it could cannibalize their other aspects of their business number two. Some stock exchanges pay very large rebates to brokers who post limit orders on those exchanges, particularly these ones that are for profit. So once again, some stock exchanges, the stock exchange, is paying very large rebates to brokers. The people where we go through.

Remember it's the trader. The broker, then the exchange, so basically the trader's trying to execute then the exchange, it's kind of a different form of payment for order flow payment for order flow is money going to the broker from a market maker, but it's a rebate when it's from the exchange To the broker, so no matter how you slice it up: you're gon na have these brokers, who are getting paid they're, getting enticed to send their orders in one direction or another. If it's going to a market maker, it's called payment for order flow. If it's going to an exchange, it's called a rebate.

Some stock exchanges pay very large rebates to brokers who post limit orders on those exchanges back in 2014. During a very controversial hearing in front of the senate committee. Excuse me, a representative from td ameritrade admitted that they send virtually all their limit orders to edgex because it pays such a high rebate. So right there, it's just another form of inducement.

These are huge conflicts of interest. Yesterday was a perfect illustration of a conflict of interest feedback loop, which he just coined when writing up this post. This is where it gets interesting of how things got pretty crazy. Yesterday, there are many people, and probably a lot of you, probably a couple hundred of you who got orders or notifications.

Faulty notifications, i should add, of your out of the money calls being in the money, even though they were ever never actually in the money and here's what went wrong in the system of how we got there. The price was never trading at that level. It was more of like a system and then a broker like really posting numbers to all of its users, retail brokers or the internalizers routing orders, on their behalf posted a bunch of high price orders to edgex, because they do that by default as a result of Their enormous rebate tier so once again, let's say you and i are sitting there and you're like okay, i'm just gon na throw a lemon order out if gme hits a thousand dollars i'll have a sitting limit order. That's where it comes in.

Let's just say: i'm not saying anyone did this, i'm saying: let's paint the picture of what happened yesterday yesterday, everyone's jacked up about gme and you're, like hang on things, might get nuts so i'll post a limit order, but remember places like edgex, are paying these brokers To post their orders there because they want that business, so a lot of them got posted on edgex. These sitting limit orders because they do that by default as a result of the enormous rebate tier they're getting paid to do it, they don't care about getting best execution for their clients. They simply want to maximize their rebates. So a lot of these they're like actually going to pay us.

Yes, yes, yes, cool! We'll put our limit orders from our clients onto your platform, a snapshot of some of these, that it was showing from the sip a snapshot of the sip sip trade feed on gme, and you could see there was a lot at 4. 20. 69, but what like that number is obviously freaking hilarious, but the fact that it is hilarious actually gives a little bit of a connotation that it shows that it was retail traders such as you such as me that were having an impact on the system. There's a very good chance as you're about to see that this was actually retail traders putting their limits of 4 20 69 for the lows, which is absolutely hilarious.

But then that's why we're seeing some of these trades come through? Some of these faulty trades come through that never actually traded there. I know this might sound a little bit confusing, but i think i can clean it up for you. Gme was halted due to a limit down condition. Remember it dropped eight point.

Whatever percent within three minutes, so the mbbo was outside of the volatility bands of the halt, so we got a circuit breaker halt, but the sip continued to publish quotes from edgex for another 35 seconds. Now, if you recall to the start of this, most of them were resolved within one millisecond. Some were within five edgex was very, very slow, really actually 35 times slower than most other. This had some market-wide impacts, including causing several brokers to alert their customers.

That high priced options on gme were suddenly in the money because the brokers assumed the quotes were accurate, even though the stock was halted and they should have not processed these quotes. So once again, these were not accurate. We didn't trade there, but the data came through and these shitty brokerages, such as robinhood thought they were legitimate prints and they started to signal to people that their calls were in the money, even though they never were. These quote, updates were abnormal and they included the 4269 orders above over the course of 35 milliseconds.

We were talking a portion of one second, the bid price for edg x dropped to zero dollars rather than quickly. Excuse me rather quickly in about nine milliseconds, while the ask price kept increasing, i'm saying, dropped and increasing, but that's not exactly what happened basically think of the price we were just at at this point in time we were roughly around 182 on gme. They started to clear the bid and the ask, as they were coming from so for 182. They were running it down to zero they're like we got ta clear it clear it clear.

This is all happening in the portion of a second, so they're clearing from the price. Remember, because the stock stopped trading, so they're clearing all the bid, they're clearing, all the ask - and it was they're really their poor housekeeping that led to this uh. Where were we? I'm saying dropped in increasing, but that's not exactly what happened. What appears to have happened is that edgar kept cancelling individual orders.

Remember these limit orders that edgex was paying the brokers to put their orders there, um, which resulted in the next order becoming the best ask which was then canceled and so on. It appears that they have done this order by order asking the book by increasing price. On the ask so picture this here is the price that we're at we're trading here, and you have a bunch of limit like ask above and a bunch of limit buys below so limit cells on top limit buys below. When this was halted, they came in and started clearing it order by order.

So this bid, because we're not trading we're gon na clear, clear, clear, clear because no one's trading right now and it was easier for them to get to zero. But as you go up, you're clearing clearing clearing and all of a sudden for a brief moment in time for a couple milliseconds as they're clearing it. That looks like the best bid that looks like the best ass, so the bin and ask was really really spreading and it was like once again just housekeeping well. This is where it gets funny because on the top side, as you're seeing people get cleared in their best ass they're lid, their sitting limit sell order.

You start to see hilarious order. Numbers 4, 20. 69. 999.

69, uh, 14. 20. 69. 1773, uh, 69.

420. 69.. These were all real orders and not some strange artifact from pegged order types mean prices in meme stocks exposed this problem, and some of your orders have helped me get to the bottom of it. So basically, there was a bunch of jokesters out there, like you like me, that just had comical limit cells and and as they were cleaning up the system from the fact that there was a hole they at a brief moment in time appeared as the best ask And then, all of a sudden, if you have the best gas edgex, was trying to clear these trades, even though they shouldn't have been because the trade like it was halted, no one was actually trading.

That's why people erroneously got the fact that they're like oh okay, we see that the best ask is up here. It's above whatever you're out of the money call is so now it's called in the money and that's why people got these false. I guess notifications. There are two general possibilities: either edgex queued up the release of these quotes on their side or took the sip 35 milliseconds to publish approximately 1 112 quote.

Updates. Retail brokers who were receiving these quotes updates were likely calculating a mid price for gme based off of them. So, obviously, just because you have a quote that doesn't mean you're trading there, but there's a good chance that these brokers were for lack of a better term lazy, so all of a sudden they're getting the mint price. Well, the mid price between zero and 420 69 is about 210.

well. 210. That's why a lot of people were getting all these false notifications that their whatever their calls were, were in the money we never traded at 200 yesterday. But if you had one at 200, if you had one at 209, there's a good chance that it was shown to you as being in the money, even though it never was, because they're piss-poor math of their midpoint calculation.

This is because retail broker tech systems weren't properly filtering out bad data and the stock halted and the bid was zero, don't calculate mid and because retail brokers were responsible for those crazy orders being posted to edgex. It's a conflict of interest feedback loop at another point: retail brokers finally stopped processing these pr prices, which was why higher prices options did not receive the same alert. So basically, these like really comical ones such as 69 4269. The system was fixed before it even got to processing it.

This remember all of th. This whole error was all started and fixed within 35 milliseconds. So so it bears repeating. What are the market structure problems that seemingly isolated event exposed exchange rebates, induced brokers to route orders for their own benefit, not for the best execution, so they were putting it on ejects.

These limit orders because they were paid to do so limit, buys limit sales exchanges are being subsidized by sip money, but are failing to maintain the sip systems in resulting in a 35 millisecond of bad quotes being published because they are incentivized to keep their own private Feeds valuable in order to maximize revenue and shareholder value instead of maintaining fair and efficient markets. So once again, everyone's paying a lot to have sip, but they don't want it to be too good because they still want to sell their own data feeds. Discount brokers are under investing in critical technology systems, resulting in bad data being acted upon because they are not properly incentivized to invest in these systems. So this is coming back to the likes of robin hood and weeble having piss-poor technology in terms of they're not doing logical calculations.

They were actively coding up. Okay, what's the midpoint, what's the midpoint we'll say, that's the normal price between the bid and the ass, but all of a sudden they're like wait, the bid 0 and the ask is 420. They were still calculating it. They weren't even realizing the in the world of coding.

It's referred to as an edge case. They didn't properly code the edge case because they thought the stock was still trading in that 35 second delay, even though it wasn't trading, so they need just better better software. Really, once again, this all comes back to like really uh, i would say a phrase that is now made famous by mr lauer inducements and incentives. This problem is all it's not because of the wall it was shown off by the halt.

Is the halt itself? The problem is the halt, manipulation. No, it's not. The halts are stupid, but it's well-defined rules of when we're going to get the halt. That is not the problem here.

The halt is, what really was showing a light on the fact that we're still getting inducements and incentives, these retail brokers were selling limit, buys limit sales to edgex edgex was slow to respond, sip was slow to respond, the brokers have piss-poor technology that was trying to Calculate it, people got false notifications. The price was never actually trading that high, but it did really highlight and bring on to center stage some of these issues that are the same flavor and the same taste as payment for order flow. Just a little bit of a different style - and this is more of an exchange rebate versus a market maker paying for order flow and then here's the tl dr version. Once again, if you want to read this, i know i went through it relatively quickly.

There's a lot of great information in here you can find it on dave, lauer's, twitter. You can find it online. I retweeted his. I implore you to look into it and then the same thing.

If you want the exact details of how these halts are computed, the halt once again, the halt in itself is not a manipulative thing. These are things that happen commonly you can do the math. You know exactly when they will or won't occur. The math is actually relatively easy to compute.

This brings me now. I know i'm bagging on weeble. I know i'm bagging on robinhood, but here's another thing i want to bring up. So a lot of people yesterday were reaching out to me.

I believe it's popular within europe revolut, it's another brokerage. Hi we've had some chatter about stock availability on our app. The info previously shared via in-app chat to some of our customers was outdated. Neither we nor our broker currently have any restrictions to trade on amc or jimmy sorry for any inconvenience.

This prompted a lot of inconvenience because many people within europe were saying i'm trying to do it, but i'm being told i can't get it um. So, just once again, these retail brokers are kind of showing their. I guess like true colors by just the fact that they're being a piece of all right now, let's talk about mullin, as you can see, mullen out of nowhere exploded from 222. All the way up to three dollars what happened there? Well, there was an interview on benzinga with uh misery, the ceo of mullen ticker symbol m-u-l-m, and this is why it exploded we're fairly confident that we identified enough partners to ensure that we're not going to have any delays in the builds of our products.

Mullen. Ceo said regarding the chip shortage issue um, so there was other positive things. That was like the main thing that really jumped out to me, but he did an interview today and just his commentary on it got a lot of people excited that the next development phase for mullen once again, ticker symbol, m-u-l-n, would be positive and on that announcement, Bada bing bada-boom. We definitely got some crazy boom boom candles on m-u-l-m the other one i want to talk about right now that came out of nowhere was forge uh, tifker symbol, f-r-g-e forge global to go public in a 2 billion merger with motive capital.

So this was september of 2021. Forge's mission is to create an accessible liquid and transparent private market forge operates a leading global private securities marketplace with technology that is, transforming the global private market ecosystem for investors, private companies, shareholders and employees. So the best way i could explain this is basically think about how all these companies, who are not public, sometimes there's employees that still get equity well forge is actually a private marketplace where that type of stuff could be traded for, like, let's say, a pre-public type Of a deal, that's like the highest level tldr of what the hell this company is forge. Global shares, soar 90 up 306 since market debut last week, so it finally went live last week and then today you can see that it is exploding, forge global ticker, symbol.

F r g e shares shot up 90 in afternoon trading wednesday, with the stock now trading at 306 percent above its market debut following the company's merger with spac motive capital last week, um. So right now there's not. It went live last week and then today there was not really a particular piece of news that caused it to shoot up. It was grinding, higher and higher and then out of nowhere, it exploded.

And if you look at the data, things are a little bit wonky. It's not showing any short interest, but yet the cost borrow is 300, the utilization is 99.5 and it's a low float um shares on loan 101 000, when the float is only 700 000., so one in seven shares could theoretically be short against it and there's a Chance that they might have got squeezed out of their position, because this looked very, very brutal um. I see some people asking about the shorts covering on amc on monday, we're not really seeing too much. There was still a net borrow, they borrowed 5.5 and the return shares was 3.6 and if you look at the magnitude of the shares on loan, we're selling 137 million, so i mean not many did like.

I said - and this was my estimation from monday i was like - i bet some did - but not a noteworthy amount and right now that's exactly what the data is showing that's exactly what the data is showing of. In fact, the short interest on a relative basis actually increased against amc today in terms of gme uh same thing, actually in net return, short interest dropping to almost 23. Now, if you look at these, i know there's going to be a lot of people screaming about dark pools and screaming about short ladder, attacks and all that good jazz. But right now, yes, they're getting beat up, and it's it's one of these things that the min it depends on what type of manipulation you want to really argue with.

In real time a stock goes down when the selling pressure outweighs the buying pressure. Remember, for every single transaction there is a buyer, there is a seller there's, never more selling like sold shares than there are bot shares. That's what volume is a buyer and a seller agree on a price and a share amount, and the trade goes through. What moves the price, because every buyer has a seller every seller has a buyer.

That's literally how markets work! What moves the price is the price that the buyer and the seller agree upon if the buyer is more and more aggressive, they'll agree on a higher price. If the seller is more and more aggressive, they'll agree on a lower and lower price. It's all about selling aggression. It's all about buying aggression, it's never about the amount of buyers.

It's never about the amount of sellers because buyers always equal sellers. That's what a market is you don't just buy from the ether you don't just sell into the ether. This is the axiom of how a marketplace works. Is people agree on a price just because you want to buy it or at a really low price and sell it at a really high price? Well, great, you could put a limit order in there and if someone else agrees with you, maybe you'll get a transaction, but you could try to sell it right now at 10 000 and just no one's going to be willing to buy it off you for 10.

000., every buyer has a seller. Every seller has a buyer. It's all about the aggression of the two parties that decides the equilibrium, which is the price. It's basically it's supply and demand.

It's that exact thing. We learned in our high school economics class that sliding scale of supply and demand if there's more and more demand and less and less supply price goes up. If there's more and more supply and less and less demand, the price goes down. That is just the equilibrium.

Aka the price point now, where i said you can get into the weeds of arguing about manipulation or not is is supply or demand. Being fictitiously shown is demand being fictitiously, like kind of hampered down, is supply being fictitiously bloated, that's a whole other discussion. That is a very, very fair discussion to have, but i think it's important to understand that. Just because you see red bars like you can't just be like hey it's manipulation, because i don't like the price like the direction that we're going and then there's some people who look at the chart and they're like this looks very manipulated, which also that's like a Load of horseshit, you can't just look at a chart and be like that's a manipulative looking chart, you can say hey, it looks like robots are trading it, it looks like retail is trading it, it looks like institutions are trading it based on volume or trend or The niceness looking of the chart like right here this was pretty systematic selling.

This was perfect, continued selling from one all the way until for basically an hour and a half, it was like a perfect downward channel. So to me you could argue that an algorithm was selling off gme for about 90 minutes straight once again, the manipulation argument comes to the fact that is supply being fictitiously bloated. Is the man being fictitiously hampered? That's a different discussion and it's a very, very fair discussion to have by the way ding ding ding. The market is closed for the day.

That is all she wrote for this particular training day, wednesday march 30th. There is one more day of trading in the month and then obviously two more days of trading in the week. Remember friday is the start of a new calendar month, and it also happens to be a friday, which means that we're gon na get the information for march of in terms of unemployment, we'll get the unemployment rate, the jobs added right now, we're looking for unemployment to Drop to about 3.7 3.6 percent with about 490 000 jobs added, that will be the number that comes out friday morning, so we'll be paying attention to that tomorrow. There's not really big scheduled economic updates uh if anything changes i'll.

Obviously, let you know here is the plan uh right after this i'll be making a wrap-up video we'll go over amc, gme, mun frge, the training hall with gme. We have a lot to go over so we'll be doing that. Um we'll be posting that tonight we also have some vod content for the crypto channel and then i'll be streaming bright and early crack of dawn at 9 00 a.m. Tomorrow, that's the plan.

I don't think i have anything here, um right now. The one thing i wanted to point out to you was the spy which had a nice nice rally. The one trade that i have on through the futures market is right here um. This is where i've just been posting kind of my active trades, not just the socks that i'm sitting in such as amc or gme, but my active trades.

Basically, i'm playing the spy. I just posted it and i'll, pin it to chat, and then here i'll put it right here. Also in rumble, i'm looking to play the s. P 500 down to this gap, fill at basically 456.

That's the active trade i have on right now for the overall market and you can see that that stuff is all posted on local, so i just posted it and pinned it. So you could get it there, um! That's what i have for you i'll, be posting. Some vlog content tonight i'll be streaming once again 9am tomorrow morning, i appreciate all the good vibes. I appreciate everyone spending, even a second of their day with me.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I hope you have an absolutely be a beautiful day, i'll catch you in the next video peace out.

You.