Foreign. Thank you Foreign. Thank you brother own brother. Um brother Good morning, Good morning, good morning.

Welcome back to another episode of The Mad Core Show where I'm at and you're the Chorus Live show So it works out with our naming and everything. So uh, pleasure to have you here this morning, afternoon, evening night, whatever time it is for you I Don't know where you live on the globe but I hope you are ready for an exciting Thursday July 13th. Hope you guys are ready. Hope you're ready for a fun one Now let's be honest, the start of the week a little bit boring, a little bit boring.

but fortunately the middle of the week and now the end of the week is bringing us some of that excitement that we're really, really looking for. Now if you missed it: yesterday, we got the CPI report an inflation report. Today we're getting another inflation report. That's why we're starting early.

That's why you should be to class on time. The PPI report the producer price index yesterday was the Consumer Price Index coming out at 8 30. So we're going to be able to listen to what our boy Rickson Tilly has to say about the situation. Then from there tomorrow we're getting consumer sentiment.

But on top of all that, earnings season officially started today. so early. the more. This morning we heard from Pepsi and we heard from Delta they were both good.

They both beat I'll show you those numbers but bullish Thumbs up! Thumbs up for the Bulls Thumbs up! for the green so they crushed it. and then Friday tomorrow before the Market opens, we're going to hear from JP Morgan We're going to hear from Wells Fargo We're going to hear from City We're going to hear from BlackRock and we're also going to those are obviously all Financial plays. We're also going to be hearing from UnitedHealth Group UNH a big Healthcare play. in fact the biggest Healthcare play in the US.

So a lot going on. We have macroeconomic announcements. We have macroeconomic speeches on like I think there was eight different fed speakers going down this week. so we have to talk all about that.

We have to talk about earnings, we have to talk about inflation and then I just have some other interesting news related to Disney resigning Bob Iger to be the CEO Elon starting a new company, we talked about seasonality of how today tomorrow and Monday greatly favor the Bulls. We could talk about my positions what I've been seeing if you guys were paying attention yesterday, you knew that I crushed it in the morning, got myself into a position that I wasn't in love with. Uh in in terms of more SPX calls for the overall market. So I was just like you know what, you've had a good run here from the start of the month until now.

Maybe size down to half. So when I did size down, I was already down 16k. So I cut half so I locked in a loss of 8K. But now that position because of the pre-market action is actually up 8K So it's kind of just like perfectly balancing itself out.

Uh, but it doesn't really matter because if I choose to swing it through the PPI report which is going down and now five minutes, I'm either going to be very very right or very very wrong. There's not going to be like an in-between on this one. So before all that happens, I Do want to talk with all of you with this: PPI Report with everything before I show you my thoughts, my opinions, and all that stuff. What is everyone thinking this morning? I Need you to comment? Thumbs up for the market going up, especially after the PPI report or thumbs down as in Market going down.

So in terms of the overall: Market where do you think we are going with this PPI report If it helps you at all right now, the PPI uh, they're looking at core month over month being 0.1 and they're looking at just the headline month of a month being 0.2 Those are kind of the lines in the sand. Uh, the reading was 1.1 last time I'm talking about headline year over year and then the core was 2.8 So the those were the readings from last time. These These are the current expectations. Just so you know, daily, the San Francisco Fed President will be speaking at 11 10 Federal Budget comes out at 2 Pm and then Waller speaking at 6 45 today.

we're also getting at 8 30 Initial Jobless claims. Right now, the Line in the Sand is 250 000. So Line in the Sand Initial Jobless claims 250. I'm seeing some thumbs up.

Some thumbs down. but I think I'm I'm seeing more thumbs up. It seems like you guys are a bit more bullish today. a bit more bullish.

There are some bears in here. I'm not saying it's very evidently bullish, but there are more. Bulls are definitely more Bulls Interesting. Okay, well on that note.

First of all, if you haven't already, sign up for the Goonie. Community Pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video macross.locals.com there's a free version and a version that's only ten dollars a month where you could get my trades seasonality, other people's trades opinions, all that. good stuff. But I Do want you to know that outside of the world of inflation reports and Fed speakers and earnings today if we look at today, Thursday July 13th over the past two and a half decades, why two and a half decades? Because that's all I have the data set for if if I if you want more data I'm gonna if you want farther back or you're gonna have to give me more data.

this is what I have the data for for the past two and a half decades, the Bulls have won this day 76 of the time. As in, they've won it 21 out of 25 times this individual day, the Bulls have won it 21 out of 25 times with a profit factor of 2.0 As in every dollar they put on the table, they got two back, effectively doubling up. So the overall market seasonality for today, tomorrow, and Monday is bullish. But today's pretty bullish.

Tomorrow is specifically bullish. Actually, even more bullish than today. just so everyone knows. But anyway, most importantly, sign up.

Become a Goonie Madcores.locals.com become a goonie today. So stock futures tick up after the S P 500, not just High is closed since April of 22.. interesting, interesting, Interesting. All this is because the CPI report yesterday came in cool for core CPI They were looking at five percent year over year, came in at 4.8 and for headline CPI they depending on who you asked, the meeting like analyst, was at 3.1 coming in at three month over month, readings were both expected to be 0.3 and they came in at point two.

The inflation report was cool. Most people were expecting it be cool. Some people were taking the contrarian view of that, thinking it was going to be hot because it was a noteworthy drop. I mean we went from four percent all the way down to three.

We dropped a whole percent. We dropped 33 of a percent of a percent That at least gets a little funky. but anyway, people are like nope, that's too much and those people got absolutely steamrolled. Now the day itself was actually a red day as in from open to close.

not from close to to close. So from where we opened to where we actually closed on the day, slightly red. But as of now, we actually might be gapping up again. but it's going to be hyper hyper hyper dependent on this earning or excuse me, The PPI report.

So yesterday, around 10 30, we shot all the way up to here. Then we drifted down, bounced, kind of filled. This displacement bar sold off. and then we just drifted up in the whole overnight session.

So obviously I am positioned to be bullish on the day. I do have SPX calls that's all in the locals, but just so you guys know, SPX 4500 July 14th I have 35 of them I'm in at 790. they're currently trading at 10 so I'm up 26.6 percent AKA 7.5 K as of now, but we'll see how it goes. I mean obviously it's going to be a little bit risky here.

Let's go to the let's go to the 15 second chart. Uh, and let's just see how this all ends up reacting. So the Spy chilling at 4 46 and we have seconds to go seconds to go for the PPI report just as we could. And we did right.

I just want to make sure once again, if you guys just want to see these numbers, uh, here it is. PPI They are looking at the points producer. That's what we're looking at for the month over month readings. That's what we're trying to come in below.

If we come in cool. mark it down that we expected they would and and what we spend in those markets has to bend in those markets to reflect the business opportunity in those markets. And then I mentioned technology. Where our technology you've got a great picture and a great movie.

We just went from 447 to 50 their value proposition. And because we're so new, what the fuck is CNBC doing? Speed this up? We don't want to listen to Iger right now. Bring him on later expectation in terms of what we would deliver. by the way, to ourselves and to the street that I think you know might have been.

maybe perhaps a little bit. well, but also that subscriber growth then led to a big increase in the stock price because people got breaking PPI points. one percent in June below expectations in June below 2.6 This is the first time PPI inflation is coming below one percent since January of 2021. yet again, signs that inflation is falling quickly.

We come in low. We're coming in low. Another cool report. Inflation came in love.

Makes sense to me that the market would go up on this news the other initial, where are we at? Right here. It popped initially. then it got smacked. engagement and the pricing model is the advertising model.

It's the this is just the free market high right here from 5 15 in the morning. The report did come in cool goes back. I'll sell A little bit surprised I Understand that, but not that they're still. Why are they still talking to spend at an incredibly high level? This is live.

They're not reporting the PPI report live. Obviously, you have to spend a certain amount. Seriously dude. you got to get your content right.

But you have to get all of these other things right. But you know what? it shows. What an absolute joke that they're not reporting that. Just play the Iger thing later.

Where is Bloomberg TV Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg TV TV TV Live Now Bloomberg TV Bloomberg Surveillance What a joke. That's actually funny. Here we go: 15. we're gonna have to switch to this guy.

48 hours ago, two-year yield comes in nine basis points 4.66 a percent I Really want to make note of the real yield? 1.56 percent Brent Crude's still above 80. Uh, get some sprightliness. And the number one thing I would look at is the Dxy index to see DX 100 I think would be extreme. What else is getting crushed? Well the only real news in the PPI is it was all in services for services.

There was no change in Goods prices. We had seen uh, the goods versus Services turn around a couple of months ago and prices came down too much. Trajectory is good and I know you'll talk about this with Torsten but of course PBI not as important doesn't have a direct we can get above and hold above this. My next Target would actually be all the way up here four or five months reporting for Victor Idaho This is a wonderful economic conference precursor to Jackson Hole that has some huge value.

Great attendance as well, just beginning to think about the theories of the most. DPI For those of you joining right now, that has been the expertise of course all this claims down 12K So that's kind of good for the economy, not so good for the market. so it's a PPI report. Polish The initial jobless claims You could argue slightly better.

Some would say they're super restricted that inflation was and still is at levels that are too high for their comfort person's the kind of guy that we could get behind. and also for markets. team producer presidents Rise Point One: the estimate was 0.4 definitely coming in reasons why we're still having this strong economy and if the lacked effects of monetary policy that they have spoken about for so long. So the core was 2.4 When they uh, we're looking at it will eventually begin to slow things down.

We're already seeing that across all indicators and we should expect that also to happen over the coming quarters. So how do you explain jobless claims coming in lower than expected? How do you explain other metrics of wage growth continuing to remain robust? Yeah, so in that sense, there's still a very strong legal Market average hourly earnings last Friday went up and this labor market obviously in jobless claims still looking relatively tight which certainly also get the FED to say. Well, we still need to hike rates more and still tie. the monetary policy is needed.

But at this point point, if you see companies, whether it's Delta, whether it's Pepsi, whether it's number of the others that are seeing profit margins expand, what their input prices coming down more than what they can charge consumers markets, at what point does it find that angle that offsets any pain of that I Mean granted it hasn't fallen as much As you also talk a lot about, the housing market is beginning to recover traffic of prospective buyers. It seems to be pretty freaking bullish tonight. What's going up? New Home Sales is going up. Home builder confidence, Home buyer confidence.

Even the number of offers received per sold property is also going. They're still playing this 40 of the CPI so the risk is Am I wrong here. Do you guys like really kill about care about Eiger or something? It's still just way too high for their comfort, so that's why for them, It's still the hawkish communication saying both on the inflation side and on the growth side. On the employment side of the Dual mandate, we just dollar must be catching a bid.

Yeah, we don't have any color catching a bid for whatever reason, saving itself just just above 100.. your Optimist standpoint that America's fully employed. This is in the Zeitgeist Office Jobs Report Uh, Five six eight days ago and this is the employment as compared to population ratio of prime age people in America is a full recovery mode. Back on literally.

back on regression back on Trend That's got to be the most optimistic chart for politicians in America Bitcoin Holding at thirty point five thousand years no different FMC members are putting different weight on this. Do we need to solve for the labor market to get inflation to come down. I Mean let's not forget inflation today. call CPI was at 4.8 We are nowhere near the two percent Target where they want it to be and with that backdrop of course they will continue to say we just got to keep going because selling definitely started in three minutes.

in just bullish at first, then made up its mind and now it happens when you raise rates at 33. We're starting to go down for a prolonged period of time, especially as companies definitely selling financed and aren't really ten points right now charged out there by investors. When does that scenario change? Yeah, no. The very important answer that is that this is exactly the crystallization.

Okay, well, uh. my mind. Still, they're still playing it. They are still trying to shove Eiger into their screens all day every day.

I Just don't I Just don't get it. Bonds are falling. Yeah. I mean yields are going to be popping as the dollar like that makes sense.

So dollar up means yields up dollar up. Going with yields up means bonds going down. Uh, so this makes sense here. I mean remember the dollar and the overall Market commonly inversely correlated.

So if you see the dollar popping, you could safely assume yields are popping. You can safely assume bonds are going down and you could assume that the market is coming down. Um, so that's where we're at right now. I Mean it's not remember yesterday like the Spy is still technically coming like we closed at 446.

this buys at 447.30 the the Spy is up a dollar Thirty right now, so it's not this. I Think in terms of the timing. Yeah, from 8 30 to now, it looks like we're selling. but as soon as you zoom out and you realize what we did from closeness until this exact moment where we're definitely up.

In fact, Um, I was talking with some other Traders on Discord and I said as soon as we break 45, 11, 45 14 we're going up. and I mean obviously we're at 45 20 right now getting as high as 445 to 27. This drop right here I think it's going to be bought up I really do. A lot of times we have that saying of like the first moves the wrong one could be true in this case I don't know I don't have a crystal block ball I can't tell you the future I guess I need to throw my body into a vat of like radioactive material to potentially become Clairvoyant Seems like a good risk reward.

but anyway with this I mean I can. In my mind, this is simple. the Spy has been trending upwards. spy's clearly been trending upwards.

Most recently we make a high, we make a swing low which is a higher low. then we go up and we double top. This all happened at 444. Then we make another swing low.

This low compared to the previous low is obviously a higher low. so we are still trending upward. double top high higher lows. What does this higher low tell you what's the difference between June 26th and July 7th.

The fact that the Bulls started buying aggressively earlier, buying at 438 instead of waiting for 432 tells you exactly that they have aggression. Then obviously with a we started to swing back up between the 10th and the 11th and I thought we were going to keep coming down. so I got screwed up these days. Then I switched long and then I got obviously the CPI report yesterday went my way.

We got a nice Gap open to 44639. that's where we opened. The day was still a red day though because we opened up four, four six three nine. we close at 4 446.

So even though from close to close the Spy was in the green from open and closed, it was down by about 37 cents. So that's going to be important in a second. Just remember that the bar's body itself right here. this actual bar body was a red body and I'm just going to point out a correlation that I've been seeing.

But anyway, hold on to that for one second. and then today we're getting another PPI report came in cool. It seems like the news isn't beat, isn't being treated the most bullish right now? I Guess people focusing on maybe the initial jobless claims uh, coming in a little bit light, which is actually a good economic report. and remember, we're still fighting inflation.

so I think it came in. What are you guys saying? It came in at 2 38. We were expecting 250. So these numbers right here.

Producer Price index Core PPI PPI year over year core PPI year over year. all good. all bull, all bullish in the sense that they were cool as in inflation coming down more than expected which is good for everyone. That's what we want.

It seems like a as Rick Centelli would say a little bit of the fly in the ointment is right here. Initial jobless claims coming in lower than expected, which is a good economic report, but remember, that means the economy might still be a little bit too hot. So I personally would wait the PPI report to be way more important than the weekly initial jobless claims. I'm actually like awestruck that we dropped I mean if anything, it's arguably just a buying opportunity like that's that's truly blowing my mind that we dropped here I just don't understand it.

Um, in fact I just want to buy some. To me, that just does not make sense does not make sense at all. Um, do I want to buy this? Do I want to buy this? Do I want to buy buy this this? I Do Yes. I Do Do I want to buy this Okay I put in an order I don't know if it's gonna get filled.

Shit Nope, it's already moving away. Modify: I'm just adding to my current position I'm trying to add. it just keeps now moving up on me I don't I'm not so I had those SPX 4500 July 14th calls I'm trying to add to it. my average was 7.90.

I'm trying to add I had 35 of them I'm trying to add 25 more so not a full double up. Um, but is it gonna I don't understand. It's just not letting me into this. Is it the buy type? Why can't I get into this right now? Cancel order.

Okay, it's not letting me in. so I'm just canceling the order I guess I'll wait for Market open but definitely was trying to add to it. um I don't know if it's probably something with the timing. Uh, but anyway.

uh, makes more sense for me in my mind that the Market's going up considering the PPI which I personally would weigh more than what's going on in the initial jobless claims. Dude, they're still going on with this guy in Iger That's blowing my mind right now. Anyway, we should set the tone for the day. Um, before I lose my train of thought on it I Just do want to tell everyone that if you look at the previous CPI reports and then the PPI report.

So CPI out of the last nine now because we just got one yesterday, eight out of the nine resulted in a gap up on the announcement. so that's part of why I took that plays because the odds seemed pretty good. Now if you look at the information on PPI days, out of the last eight, four have gapped up. four of gap down, four have gone green, four have gone red as in two different things Gap up Gap downs and other ones of the opening to the close.

So about 50 50. so not the most useful information. basically flipping a coin. One thing I did notice though is about six out of the last eight.

whatever the bar body is for the CPI as in from open and close it seems as if the next one is a reversal of that depending or like sometimes if like one was green, the other one might be green. but it was still a big gap down so it seems like price in one way or another did revert. So even though this is a nice Gap up on CPI I'm just trying to bring to your attention that technically it's a red body and with this one now, I'm wondering if we're going to see a continuation in that pattern of okay, we see a red body. Are we going to actually get the reversal like we've seen roughly six out of eight, five out of the eight of when you compare the two together.

Also, just to add it on, Yes. I Like that chart price structure right now, these double top highs higher low we break through. Nice cup handle, very classic technical setup, but beyond it, don't forget about seasonality today tomorrow and Monday all very bullish I Posted a whole video on it yesterday day I Implore you guys to watch it I Showed you how roughly 75 to 85 percent of the time going long and open and being willing to hold it for three days. but getting out after your first profitable close it's one 75 to 85 percent of the time Beautiful Equity curve.

So right now is being bullish in this environment like a guarantee? No, Because nothing's guaranteed. The only thing guaranteed is me making degenerate, silly financial decisions on a given day. That's what's guaranteed. But beyond that in terms of price, action, movement, up, movement, down.

no, it's a game of odds. That's all this is. It's like, okay, in this percentage statistical setup, how much do you want to risk and what's the potential reward? But none of this is ever going to be like Oh I'm a hundred percent certain that does not exist I want to drill that into everyone's head, so please understand that I Personally believe right now the Bulls are in control. I'm looking for the market to push higher I'm specifically targeting 449 I'm specifically targeting 450 and I'm specifically targeting 452, which is a Fibonacci retracement 449, 450 key technical psychological level, and then 452..

So we have technical support, which is going to turn into resistance at 449, a key psychological level, and then a Fib level at 452. that's what I'm watching to the upside. Now to the downside. there are Gap those.

There's a Gap filter 442.97 Depending on where we open this morning, there's going to be potentially a downside Gap filter to 448 748 We're about 25 cents above that right now. so there are gaps to the bottom side and I'm fully fully fully aware that the market has a proclivity to test untested areas. It's an untested area of supply and demand. That's what happens when you have a gap.

and for whatever reason, the market seems to have this pattern a phenomena of testing those untested areas. So I'm aware of that and nothing's ever going to be a perfect setup. There's always going to be like a little bit of an issue. so I could argue that.

The downside: Gap those are a little bit of an issue, but the overall daily price structure bullish. the overall trend bullish. The seasonality bullish. inflation in terms of catalyst coming in cooler than expected.

That's bullish. Initial jobless claims that's a little bit bearish. The downside: Gap feels a little bit bearish, so you just have to weigh them out and it just kind of changes the odds of the scenario. But for me right now I mean I literally try to add to my position and I just don't know why I maybe I'm in the wrong contract I'm on Spxw but do I need the Am ones to trade it or I don't know? Um here.

I'll show you my current position. If you want to know more about my position, sign up for Locals Macross.locals.com It's pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Um I had 70 of these yesterday 70. I'm in at 790 so obviously I'm up 7K right now 7.7 K this is I had 70 and when I cut them I was actually down by this amount.

So when this is trading at 10 10 or actually I think the exact number is 10 30. I think it's 10 30. 10 30 10 30 Yes, that's technically my break even on the play. so I just want to let you know I'm not actually up this amount on this play at 10 30, that's technically my break.

Even so if this is below 10 30, obviously you could do the math to see like how much I'm underwater in real time. So at 10 30, that's my break even on this current play because I wanted to de-risk a little bit and I de-risk by selling half and I sold half at a loss. That cost me a case. so I need to go up 8K just for it to break be break even in that break even point if you do the math I was in that 790 I sold half of them at 550.

obviously that's gonna like if you do the math the other way. That puts me at 10 30 just so everyone knows, just trying to be as transparent and forthcoming with it as I can. So anyway, S P 500 futures rise for a fourth day on more encouraging inflation data. So two days in a row, good inflation data.

Yesterday we got positive inflation data for the CPI report. Today we got positive inflation data for the PPI report. So because of that I Obviously, as you might expect, yields are going down now. in the very short term, we did see the dollar popping.

but now even the dollar is coming back down. so that makes sense. Uh, dollar pop for whatever reason confusing to me. but coming back down which I would be bearish on the dollar right now I would be bearish on yields I'd be bullish on bonds I'd be bullish on the market.

That's my current thesis of this situation, especially considering the fact that we are at the start of earnings season and we are getting some good earnings reports Delta post record quarterly earnings hikes, full year outlook on travel boom. So D-a-l is the ticker symbol for Delta. So the earnings per share also known as EPS came in at 268 when they were expecting 240 and the adjusted Revenue was 14.61 billion when they were expecting 14.49 So top and bottom line: Delta Beat. Now maybe you were playing Delta Maybe you weren't playing Delta But this is a very good sign of most likely the upcoming success of United American and Southwest Why am I saying that? Because they're all very, very, very comparable businesses.

It's a rarity for one of these major airlines to be outperforming when the others are underperforming. Generally, they're all either being successful or having a little bit of an issue. The fact that Delta beat on top and bottom lines: I'm throwing out this prediction right now I Predict that United Southwest and American will all also beat, so feel free to mark that down in your brain notes. CEO Ed Bassin Said he expects consumers desire for travel will fuel bookings for years I Think the trends that we've seen this year are going to continue in the third quarter: Delta Expects to earn between 220 and 250 share above analyst expectations on a 16 increase in capacity.

The airline forecasts a jump in revenue of as much as 14 from a year earlier. Things are looking good. They beat on top and bottom lines. They increase their guidance because of a travel boom I'm fully expecting Delta to kind of lead the way and United American and Southwest to be following.

so want to throw that out there? but Airlines looking pretty good. Next up we have: Pepsi PepsiCo beats earnings estimates raises full year outlook even as higher prices hurt demand. So earnings per share 209 versus 1.96 expected Revenue 22.32 billion versus 21.73 billion expected going in the way of Delta Pepsi has beat on top and bottom lines for 2023. Pepsi now expects 10 organic Revenue growth up from its prior forecast of eight percent so raising Guidance The company also hates its core constant currency earnings Outlook to 12 growth from its previous expectations of nine percent so Pepsi beating on top and bottom line also beating on guidance now even though Pepsi is an ex like the way I showed you the comparisons between Delta American United and Southwest Pepsi you can kind of do that with Coca-Cola but understand like there is some clear differences.

it's not like as nice of one, but still I would be using Pepsi as an indication that yeah now I'm I'm definitely thinking that Coca-Cola is gonna be now I'd be more confident in the airline bets if you're asking me for like my priority like I can only pick one of them I'd pick the airline bets but I still do think that Pepsi is going to be showing. it's a good sign of what might be coming for Coca-Cola so just wanted to throw that out there. and the reason it's not the same is remember Pepsi has a lot more than just it's like drinks like it's a far far far larger business so you if you want to make that play you'd want to dive into like the specifics of where Pepsi was doing well where it wasn't see a lot of the times. For example, a good example of this is Walmart and Target very very similar but it was two reports ago that we actually saw Walmart do really well in Target not do well which was a little bit odd.

and then you realize why Walmart did well was because of grocery sales. A place that Target doesn't like that that's not necessarily their main business focus. So sometimes if the thing that causes a business to do well or to do poorly if that is in other businesses, obviously, you could Telegraph that forward. But then if it's completely missing such as the grocery example between Walmart and Target, well, you you need to consider that Disney is open to finding a new strategic partner.

Disney is open to finding a new strategic partner for ESPN Disney has held early conversations to find a new strategic partner for ESPN Disney is open to selling or spinning out its Legacy cable networks and ABC is broadcast network Disney CEO Bob Iger said he has a good idea when ESPN will transition to a direct to Consumer business, but decline to say when interesting. Uh, also on top of that, Disney extends CEO Bob Iger's contract through 2026, two years longer than plan. So Bob Iger was very, very, very impactful on Disney's business. In fact, if the way like Society really builds up these, Tech Bros we've had really good business guys who happen to be Tech Bros think of someone like whatever like Elon just like everyone knows them.

If Disney was a more exciting, uh, more culturally popular type of business, Bob Iger would be up there in the world of business operators. I want to make it very, very clear that he's considered to be a top-tier operator. That's why when they announced him coming back, Disney shot up. So Bob Iger kind of was at the Helm of the ship of Disney for a while they brought in a different Bob No one really liked that.

Bob Then they brought this guy back and the stock popped on it and this guy's a Titan Now you might like him, you might dislike them. That's not what I'm talking about I'm talking about his business operation skill set. It is literally top tier. So the fact that they're extending it and also what's going on right now.

Apparently that long ass discussion that they had with CNBC Disney's looking pretty good. uh, looking pretty good. So anyway, this is obviously going to be some bullish news. The main sentiment that I hear just from from like the people I chat with is a lot of people are kind of betting on Disney in the short term thinking that Bob Iger might have like one or two major deals left in him which could really really benefit Disney and it sounds like one of them might be related to.

ESPN Disney is extending CEO Bob Iger's contract through 2026 since he replaced Bob Chapek in November Iger has undertaken a board restructuring of the company, including thousands of layoffs. CNBC David Faber will interview Iger on Cnbc's Squawk Box at 8 A.M on Thursday Well, that's what we saw and it kind of made it so we didn't get the other important news that we all wish we had. But anyway, I'm not salty about it. So Delta reported they beat I think other airlines are now going to be Pepsi reported they beat I Think that that successfully means Coca-Cola is going to be before the Market opens tomorrow JP Morgan City Wells Fargo BlackRock And then we also get the health care play United Health Group They're all going down before the Market opens tomorrow.

Please pay attention to that in terms of other news. If you missed this yesterday, Elon Musk is launching a new company called X AI The website is literally x dot AI Obviously there's the Twitter page that already has hundreds of thousands of followers even though it just launched Elon Muskie of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of Twitter on Wednesday announced the debut of a new AI company called Xai with the goal to quote unquote, understand the true nature of the universe According to the company's website, Musk and his team will share more information in a live Twitter space chat tomorrow Friday July 14th. So if you like Elon if you hate Elon there is a new company and you might want to listen to it to see what it's all about. Uh, my interest is definitely peaked I Just want to know exactly what it is truly all about going International Breaking China June Exports flinched 12.4 Biggest decline since February of 2020.

we're it's not really getting publicized that much or at least maybe in the news sources that I check out. but to me it very much seems as if there's indicators of a faltering in China's economy and I just feel like it's not being covered that much. But here's another example of that. like that's huge 12.4 percent plunge That is absolutely massive Now obviously this morning we already get the PPI stuff.

We got the initial jobless claims coming in 13 000 light. uh, at 11 10. Weird time. But anyway San Francisco Fed President Daily will be speaking Federal Fed budget coming out at two and then tomorrow the major one is right here at 10 A.M Half hour into the trading day, we will be getting the the Consumer Sentiment Report.

so we still have a lot of fun in between macroeconomic reports, speeches, and also obviously earnings between now and the conclusion of the week. I Do want to remind you that today seasonally does favor the Bulls so does tomorrow. So does Monday I did a whole video on it. it's on Rumble it's on YouTube Check it out.

I give you the exact odds with like mathematical proof of the situation. but I do think seasonally, price structure and also Catalyst wise in terms of those macroeconomic events I think it does currently pay to be a bull. Five things to know before the stock market goes: Ding ding ding ding today Thursday July 13th Bulls on Parade Hell yeah brother. Eiger Sticking around, we cover that Pepsi raises its Outlook that's always a good sign Delta sets the tone.

That's a good sign. Two strikes for Hollywood So I believe writers and writers are already striking and I think actors are now about to go on strike. Um so I mean I'm I haven't been following it that closely, but it doesn't seem to be good for the world of shows and movies if both writers and actors are striking. So maybe something to just pay attention to if you feel so inclined.

All right, let me the market is coming back like I said I I was attempting to buy I believe over here around 8 40 I wanted to buy more. unfortunately I couldn't Um, oh wait, mine no. I would have been slightly underwater. so I guess it was good that I had to hold my horses on that one.

So I'm I don't know. I mean I'm either looking for an opportunity this morning to unload my bullish position or if there's like a dip and if I like it I might add to it and then obviously try to unload it a little bit later. Right now, Crypto looking good Bitcoin holding at 30.5 000 etholding just below 1900, the Spy potentially a Baby Gap up yesterday's high was 447.48 We're currently trading at 447.67 so a potential 20 cent Gap up. So I wouldn't be surprised if out of the gate they try to do a quick Gap though just to clean up the chart a little bit.

wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. Pepsi Uh, currently up 2.3 2.4 percent on the news of its earning success and then Delta is currently up 3.6 As I would expect honestly, all other airlines to be up, it's called a sympathy play. We've seen him before, but Delta closing at 47.95 currently trading at 49.68 Pepsi closes thing out at 183.17 currently trading at 187.50 Uh, we have the Spy closing out at 446.02 currently turning at 447 72 so that's up a nice dollar 70. The Q's closing out at 372.82 currently trading at 375.62 so the queues are up point seven six percent.

while the spies of 0.4 So as of now with just reference to pre-market strength looks like the tech sector is a bit strong. but I do want to just remind everyone that over the past two days on a relative basis we've seen Apple acting a bit weaker. so if that can change its tune and start like doing what it's been doing recently and continue, its rip higher. That could really help this find the cues.

So definitely watching Apple watching Microsoft two of the biggest companies watching Nvidia and videos up another 1.2 trading at 444. That's absolutely crazy Meta been paying attention to it. well, not only because of its overall Rip but because of Threads announcement closed at 309 currently trading at 313. So Med is up Amazon Had a weekday yesterday.

strong recovery. now looking really strong. into close it did Six billion dollars in revenue on Prime day. Six billion dollars.

Check this out. I think I saved this somewhere. Let me see if I can find it. You have to appreciate how absolutely staggering these numbers are.

Check this out. This is from Joseph Carlson he's another YouTuber I'm a big fan of them Amazon made 6.4 billion in Revenue yesterday for Prime day. Here are some fun comparisons that is three times Palantir's Revenue In all of 2022, that's 50 more than Texas Roadhouse Revenue In all of 2022, that is equivalent of around three weeks of Target's average revenue. They did this all in a day.

6.4 billion in Revenue In a freaking day. That's absolutely astounding. The size of that. Like, no, no wonder Amazon's really getting going Now That's absolutely ridiculous.

Absolutely ridiculous. Uh Celsius CEO Alex Machinski arrested Thursday morning SEC Sues Celsius Network and its founder Alex Machinski. Well, that's what happens when you run a bank and continue to tell everyone it's not a bank. Um, I Don't think anyone's surprised Jerome Powell Arriving to the office this morning Fair Point Do I Not follow this account I Better follow this account not Jerome Power.

That's hilarious. That's absolutely hilarious. All right. So we could do some major chart review stuff.

Uh, excited to do that. But before we get there, is there any major questions, comments, concerns that you guys currently have before we do some chart review for the day? Any questions, comments, concerns If not, we will just then drop. jump into some charts and see if we can identify some interesting levels to buy and or sell. Does the PPI information imply deflation? So bad for companies? hence Market drops? No.

Um, that I mean we're still in an inflationary state, Were just in less of an inflationary state, so on a relative basis depending on where you're starting your comparison. Yeah, it might be deflation, but it's not like the numbers are negative. like we're actually not deflating. We're still in an inflate.

Like the magnitude of it is still inflationary numbers. Uh, what is the number? Is it good or bad for stock? Sorry. I Just woke up. Well, first of all, demerit, you're late to class.

but the PPI numbers came in. They came in lower than expected, which is bullish for the market. But I Do want to caveat that with the fact of the initial jobless, claims came in lower than expected. As in, still like that's a little bit bearish.

I Think the PPI numbers are more impactful I think they matter more I'm seeing a very nice basing of Price Right Above yesterday's high I Mean this is beaut like to me, this is a setup for a Rip but who knows, we have to wait for the market to open. But I'm the fact that we're just basing right above yesterday's high really really makes me think that 449 um, 450 might be in play today. Uh, when does selling start for rebalancing? NASDAQ Well first we have to get the announcement. so tomorrow is when we get the announcement of what the rebalancing will be and then the actual rebalancing.

I think happens 10 days from tomorrow I think it's on the 24th I Can find the article and find the info though for you. Do you think AMC will go to 560k? No, not a morsel. Not a single atom of my being believes that will ever ever fucking happen. Foreign investors have opportunity to lead virtue fraud lawsuit.

Yeah. Very concerned about the law firm Dewey Tunerman now ambulance Chasers they won't see a penny. he has really just been Margot Robbie is a seven. What was going on on Disney yesterday? not Disney Well I guess connected somewhat to Margot Robbie the actress What was going on on Twitter yesterday that people were calling Margot Robbie mid did you guys see that I I Do want to turn this conversation back to the market, but sometimes things happen in this world.

That's just absolutely astounding. Absolutely astounding. And the internet calling? Margot Robbie mid what what in the world is going on like I guess maybe we're all just blind but I I just don't I I just don't get it I I Don't get it at all I It blows my mind. Uh, so wait when I come back it was open-minded about Hulu I Ultimately conclude that we would be better off having Hulu than not having Hulu Okay Cool, We don't need to listen to that.

Uh, today Highcroft announced that has been working with share Intel to review training the company. Stock sharing Tells Analytics identified trade imbalances in trading of Highcroft shares which may indicate illegal trading activity. Read more based on the findings that Sharon tells analysis. To date, we are deeply concerned that Highcroft Mining has been the target of Market manipulations scheme involving a legal short sound full of shit, absolutely full of shit.

Do Not Buy this. There's been no indication. Zero zilch. NADA goose egg.

Fucking no way. No way. No, This is just a bad company now. I Guess maybe that's unfair of me to say it's a bad company.

but I guess bad companies can still be the target of manipulation. If you take something bad and you want to speed it up, you would manipulate it. So maybe I'm being a little unfair there. Highcroft is a horrible company and it's borderline predatory.

What? Diane and Adam Aaron did with it, but it could still be the victim of manipulation. So I guess maybe yes, I'm being unfair I am being unfair. Two things to consider there. First of all, I would have never gotten into it because it was predatory that Adam Aaron pumped it up and then it got dumped on the retail that he got to buy it.

So that's bullshit. The company is a Bad Company Fundamentally, it is not growing. They don't have the Commodities like they're not getting good minds or any like. it's just not good.

The way you have good mining companies. This is the opposite of it. It's a bad mining company, but it still could be manipulated. So even though you have a bad company, well, I'm not going to be a fan of it being manipulated.

So I guess you'd have to show hardcore evidence that it really is being manipulated. But even right here, they were saying that there's trade imbalances, Identified trade imbalances. What are the trade imbalances? Based on the finding of Sharon Hill's analysis today, we are deeply concerned that Highcroft may be the target of Market manipulation scheme involving illegal Short Selling High cost support and management are committed to protecting our investors and maximizing shareholder value. We will take all actions necessary to ensure Highcroft is not the targeted Market manipulation.

We will continue to work with Share Intel to combat potentially manipulative and egregious legal Short Selling and trading activities to help ensure fair market conditions. Uh, is this true at all? What was the ticker symbol for it? hymc hymc uh shorts it I Mean it has a it's not even maxed out in its utilization. The cost of borrow is not that high. The daisa cover is big.

This short interest is only six percent. Let's see what the Ftds are. There's a 193 000 Ftds that's not. You're talking about a 30 Cent stock.

You're talking about Not much money at all. You're talking about sixty thousand dollars worth of Ftds. Did I Do my math right. A third, maybe 65 000 worth of Ftds? That? who gives this shit? You're talking about a company that has a market cap of 60.

Or excuse me, 83 million dollars and the fails to deliver are 60k. Who gives this shit a short interest of six percent? This is it might be. Maybe it is a like, but also why would you have to short sell it when the utilization is only 81 percent? Generally for that to happen, you would. A naked short is when you short without finding a stock on loan.

It's easy to find shares to take out because the utilization is not maxed. Uh, so this is once again in my opinion, predatory and people just trying to take advantage of it. If if you want to know how good of a company Hymc is, just look at its stock and then scroll out a little bit and you'll realize that it's a heaping pile of shit. Pump dump pump dump pump Dump.

Dying. dying, dying. The Adam Aaron pump happened right here. This is Adam Aaron getting all of his followers to buy it.

Then it got absolutely dumped on them. And obviously we're now down here at 42 cents. So Adam Aaron Pumped it all the way up to just above three dollars and now we're trading at 42 cents. Which is, what about? um, a 90 sell-off Straight up 90 sell-off ever since Adam Aaron Got people to buy this heaping pile of shit and it's going up right now.

Obviously because there's gonna be people buying it thinking oh my God We're gonna catch these naked shorts. Um, but there's just not evidence of it. You have to have the evidence. And the Ftds are Sixty thousand dollars of an 82 million dollar company.

This is crazy. It was more interesting when it got all the way back here at 3.63 million. So it'd be interesting at the end of March But look at at some points in time, there wasn't even a thousand shares like it's just popping up there as of June 14th. And who knows, maybe the most recent set of data will be higher.

We have to wait it. Unfortunately it there's a lag till we get it. like even the public. It's not just or text, it's literally the world.

So maybe the numbers higher because it has been higher in the past. But I mean the most recent reading is it's 60 Grand With like it, it's just a dumb play. It's a dumb play that Adam Aaron once again proved he was going to take advantage of his investing base. Um which if you ask me I don't know how it's it is legal I think it's illegal but I don't know someone else is gonna have to answer those questions.

Excelsior CEO Machinski arrested in latest Doj crypto case. That's what happens when you lie about your bank saying it's not a bank when it is a bank. Ultra Rich Are betting the next big American sport is cricket. Really? Are they I hear way more about pickleball than I do cricket? What is Cricket actually growing in the U.S I mean I Know worldwide is one of the most popular sports and some of the biggest cricket players in the world are some of the most famous people in the world.

But in the U.S it just doesn't seem to have the following. but hey, maybe this is the start of something big. Maybe these rich people are early in early on her Disney leaking. what does that mean Disney up.

What was he referring to Pre-market Okay yeah, pre-market Uh so the Bob Iger news Senate up from 90 to about 91. then it went to 9160. I Guess that interview not being received well. the CNBC interview with Faber and Iger um seems like I mean it's still in the green on the day for sure.

but uh, interesting. Okay, we're about 25 cents above. Uh, so there is a little bit of a gap. Downplay: Four four seven four eight I I Have a feeling it's just gonna get filled out of the gate I Don't even know if it's playable because we're pretty close to it.

Uh, but definitely something to pay attention to. What else are we missing? What else are we missing? NASDAQ 100 features rise to a new 52-week higher reaches highest level since April of 22. What do we have asked? Michinsky is now in custody What? Billy McFarland's doing podcasts now Interesting. Interesting.

all right. not seeing any other news, which means we need to bring this back to the markets. So like I said, my base case is bullish right now. You know my upside targets of 449, 450 and 452.

Uh, I asked you guys how you're feeling about the market. There were some bears in here today, but most did seem to be bullish. so I just want to throw that out there. that little bit of bears I don't know I could I could do a poll.

If you guys want to see exactly how bullish and exactly how bearish, let me throw this poll up Market today. Bullish. Bearish. All right, that's out there.

Um, while you guys are answering that, there's always that little awkward time delay. Don't forget to hit the like button. right now we have about 1200 1300 of you on YouTube we should Max that up to let's get let's set. 500 500 is always just kind of the goal.

It's always fun to hit 500 likes before that Bell goes dingety ding ding ding. And as for all my Rumblers there's 2.5 k of you watching. We could easily hit 500. so if you're watching on Rumble if you're watching on YouTube I would ask of you to smash the like button helps out with the YouTube algorithm and then it helps out with the rumble battle leaderboard.

Obviously it's a great way where you could support not only me, but your favorite creators. um, without having to spend any money. Just you're helping them on like kind of the algo side of the world to get them in front of more people. So if you enjoy this kind of thing, if you think more people will greatly greatly greatly appreciated.

Um Disney Kind of coming down now interesting Disney is Apple Meta Meta's up 1.3 Amazon just crushing it. How's coin doing? Coin kind of sold off yesterday? How's it doing in pre-market Down in pre-market How about Carvana? Carvana is down in pre-market as well. down seven percent. Uh.

I Think when Carvana starts to unravel, it'll unravel in a very, very brutal way. I Have no position on it. I'm just trying to spread some words of caution related to it. When it's going now and the momentum's there and it's nice and ride the train as long as it's intact.

But remember, the farther it goes, the closer it is to completely unwinding. Uh. Matt What is going on with your shirt? What do you mean? What's going on with it? This is called high-end fashion I'm not sure you would necessarily understand it. It's I'm kind of a mobile art installation.

Uh, 79 of you are bullish right now. uh uh. I'm waking up Warhammer 40K in the new game will take over the industry I've heard a little bit about that, but I have absolutely no idea. Greatest Cricket Greatest Whatever baseballers easily would get into Batsman I don't know anything about it.

Uh when? I some of my co-workers uh, when I worked at Capital One were like super super into it and they loved it. talked about it all the time. Can you give a comment on Pan American Silver I don't know anything about Pan American Silver I don't know. Pan Pass P-a-a-s Strong recovery, nice buying opportunity at the lows here.

at 14.50 you're chasing it a little bit now, but it's honestly it's not like the worst chase you're risking about 12. but I mean if this thing can even get back to the top of its range at 19, that's a nice risk reward trade. Um, big support area. yeah.

I mean if you're okay with risking 14 or 15 dollars getting in at 16 like if you your account size, if your personality if you're okay with risking that I mean I could see a very realistic recovery all the way back to 19. Maybe you get lucky with a breakout you can leave some Runners on. but from a price action standpoint, yeah it like you don't want to always be chasing like this, a gap up and a runner right at resistance. but if you're feeling confident about it, getting and holding above 16 and you're okay with risking 14 about 12.5 percent I mean I'd be targeting up here, which is a nice return of 16 if you think it could keep going.

So the risk reward is not the best anyone's ever seen, but it's favoring the Bulls favor in the Bulls All right I'm ready for we have about 10 minutes. Dude I Just want this Market to open I Want to know what? Uh I want to know what's going on in my life? you know I want to know how everything's turning out for me? Yes I guess I could switch this over to the Spy Remember my one live position right now is SPX calls that expire tomorrow forty five hundred depending on how things go or don't go today I mean we should open up at like 4 4 90 ish depending on how this does or doesn't hold I mean with the ESF 4525, we should be right in that realm of 45.90 actually I could tell you how high did we get yesterday because yeah, we're going to be opening right at 44.90 My strike price is up here at 4 500. so I would love for them to go in the money obviously that that's why I played it, but it's gonna gonna take a second for it to figure itself out. We'll do the one minute we'll get everything set up for the day.

Overall: I mean we've done some chart breakdowns. You know my thesis from a catalyst event. a seasonality standpoint, a price action standpoint. You kind of know my reasoning.

Um, just to I have no Futures positions on right now I've kind of just been day trading Futures Uh, so no Futures positions on and I have one option position on SPX 4500 July 14th I have 35 of them I had 70 yesterday I ended up cutting it in half just to be a little bit safe. Obviously that safety precaution I would be up 14k right now instead of seven. Instead, I'm down eight realized up seven. Unrealized.

So if anything, I'm closer to break even rather than being up 14k. Does that sting? Of course it stings, but I would have if the market ended up vomiting I would have been pretty freaking stoked. Uh, very, very stoked that I cut half. In fact, I would have been mad that I didn't cut more than half.

So it is what it is. It is what it is. Uh, any questions before we get going, we have eight minutes. Eight minutes.

Eight minutes. Eight minutes. Let your questions fire. 78 of you are bullish.

78 of you are bullish. 77. So 362 of you voted Well Golly golly, you guys crushed it. You guys crushed it.

Um, we saw Highcroft I Think that's full of shit I think Diane and Adam Aaron are in cahoots together I think it's complete utter bullshit. It's I think it's illegal, but I'm also not a lawyer if anything. I think it's more, um, immoral than anything else. What is this one? Oh, is this about the We're still not certain that you don't have to continue to spend at an incredibly high level to to keep and grow that subscriber? Where's this item? You have to obviously have to spend a certain amount to do that.

You got to get your content right. But you have to get all of these other things right. But you don't necessarily have to spend the level that we were planning to spend. And one of the we we mentioned the goal of of uh, over five billion dollars in cost reduction in non-sports content correct, which came in the form of content and also what we call SG A.

And we've eliminated a number of positions and we've gone through that very, very difficult work. That also is work that we've already gotten done and now we have to look at everything else. The level of spending that we expected was not sustainable. So what we're we're reducing to spend in that business.

Um, speaking of content, we're in the midst of a writer's strike and very likely it would seem to have a actor's strike. How is that going to impact things and what are your expectations there? Well, I think it's very disturbing to me. I You know we've talked about disruptive forces on this business and all the challenges that we're facing and the recovery from Covid, which is ongoing, is not completely back. This is the worst time in the world to add to that disruption.

Uh, I Understand, uh. any any labor organizations desire to work on the behalf behalf of its members to get you know the most compensation to be compensated fairly based on the value that they deliver. We managed as an industry to negotiate a very good deal with the Director's Guild that reflects the value that the directors contribute to this great business. We wanted to do the same thing with the writers and we'd like to do the same thing with the actors.

There's a level of expectation that they have that is just not realistic and they are adding to a set of challenges that this business is already facing that is quite frankly, very disruptive. They're not being realisticated I Know they're not. Why not? I can't I can't I can't answer that question I again I respect their right and their desire to get as much as they possibly can in compensation for their people like. and I completely respect that.

I've been around long enough to understand that Dynamic and to appreciate it. Nothing like a multi-multi-multi-millionaire environment potentially billionaire I Have no idea calling other people reading. A great business for all of these people and it. will continue to be even through disruptive times.

But you know being realistic is imperative. What are you doing? The interim then today I start to write a lot of scripts. It will have a it will have a very very difficult question on the whole business. there's huge collateral damage in the industry is Matt still sober? you know when was that? I could go on and sounds boring.

We have 150 likes to go on YouTube Four minutes 359 right now 141 of you need to step up to the plate I wish I could tell you exactly on Rumble but it kind of loads it in batches. I'm I'm seeing 138 and there's 2.7 K of you watching on Rumble 2.7 K of you watching on Rumble So smash the like you're at 138. You don't want YouTube to embarrass you like that. You definitely don't want YouTube to embarrass you like that.

Where are we at anything else? Anything else Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dismisses Muslim parents Horizon gender ideology as far right misinformation. he's a crazy person Trudeau What on Earth is going on here? Some of this world is just insane. Some of this world is just ridiculous. All right, let's get ready.

Let's get ready. Dude in video, Just ripping. There's a lot of bullishness in this market right now. The question is, how long will it last? We're gonna find out very, very soon.

In fact, we're gonna find out In probably a mere two minutes. Uh Rumble YouTube embarrasses Rumble Every day. Is that true? Is that Rumble chat Is that true? Dude does YouTube embarrass you every single day. Uh I Want to give you? Oh wait, it's frozen.

never mind. SPX doesn't start trading until 9 30. So we'll remember it trades from like 8 15 at night p.m the night before all the way up to 9 15. Then it takes a 15 minute break and then the Market opens up.

But just this is where I'm starting out on the day as of 9 15 this morning. um up. 7K But remember yesterday on this position I sold half for an 8K loss. So really, um, take eight thousand dollars away from this number 8 000 away I could show it to you right here.

I got into um I did some weird stuff but my average was 7.90 I got out of 35 at 550. so I was in 70 I sold half at 550 and I was in at 790 so obviously you could do the math on that. but basically you have to. This number isn't as good as it seems I'm just trying to be honest about it.

Not as good as it seems, but when the Market opens I should be in the green. I was trying to buy more and it didn't let me for whatever reason. So a little bit bummed but looks like a strong opening. Remember my first upside Target which the spice trading at 447 448 right now.

my first upside Target is 449, followed by 450, followed by 452 449 key support that will probably act as resistance. 450 is the key psychological level and then 452 is a key Fibonacci retracement levels of like point seven, eight or seven two or whatever the hell that important FIB level is um so I just want to throw that out there to anyone I'm late was PPI cool Nick Lee it was. but you also get a demerit for being late to class. Just want to throw that out there.

Just want to throw that out there I Just want to give you a little bit of a demerit for being late to class. We have 15 seconds to go. Let's see. let's see I want to see right what my account opens up at as of now my account Tav total account value was 169.

what it's going to be opening in three, two, one 169.2 170. So actually not anything that special. That's a bit of a bummer. Remember, there is a downside Gap filled to 44748 I'll set an alert there just so you know if you hear an alert right out of the gate.

That is the downside Gap though which I don't know I just triggered what is going on. Uh, crosses down all right. So prepping up for this downside Gap filled to four, four, seven, four eight. Maybe it comes.

Maybe it doesn't a little bit of selling right out of the gate, but let's just wait. Uh, I'm attempting to do eve