What's up Nerds, Welcome back to another daily update of what in the heck is going on in the world with me map I Want to talk about what's going on in the Middle East I Want to talk about what's going on in the political scene here in the US and I'm going to be spending most of the time giving you an economy stock market update because it got absolutely crushed today. So I want to be explaining what I'm seeing, why it happened and what I'll personally be looking forward to in the very short term. But before we get into all that I have a bit of a sad update. Look it right there, my little astronaut guy who should be holding a very illuminated Moon The Moon no longer lights up I Don't know what to do so I I don't know.

Obviously, keep me hearing your thoughts and prayers. That would be much appreciated. But with all that being said, if you like this kind of daily update stuff, don't forget to like, don't forget to subscribe. With that being said, let's rock.

By the time the closing bell went ding ding ding ding today Thursday October 12th it was no bueno. Dow closes more than 150 points lower as inflation data reignites interest rate fears. So yes, the new inflation report this morning the CPI report it came in a little bit higher than expected. I'll be covering that and that's part of the reason why the Bears dominated the market today.

But it's only half the reason because the other half relates to what's referred to as a treasury auction. and that was definitely not good. So I'll be covering that. But before we get there I Want to give you a little bit of an update of some of what we're seeing currently in the Middle East.

Unless you've been sleeping under a rock, you know that there's currently a very serious conflict in the Middle East Specifically, a war in Israel Really, between Hamas and Israel And right here, what we're seeing is that the IDF or whatever the particular military subaction would be is just they're going through Gaza and you can see the pictures. These are pictures that I was seeing right before before I started filming this and it is just getting absolutely decimated. So once again, these are pictures from the Gaza Strip today. Very serious conflict.

Obviously, on a human level, you got to consider this. You got to be plugged in. Know what's going on? It's very serious. but obviously when you think about politics, the economy, and the market, they're all going to be intertwined in this situation.

So beyond the human level, something to be paying attention to. Biden weighs freezing 6 billion for Iran after Hamas attack on Israel. So if you don't know about this, a couple weeks ago, there was a prisoner exchange swap between the US and Iran and on top of it, prisoners went one way. prisoners went the other way.

We also the US sent 6 billion to Iran. Well, right now there's a big big thought out there that perhaps Iran actually somehow either assisted or orchestrated the attack from Hamas on Israel Now they're not necessarily the exact same group, but they it's kind of the enemy my enemy as a friend type of a deal. So they've been known to work together. So right now there's a big thought process and I'm trying to be careful here and to not State any definitives, but a lot of people are bringing up okay.

did Iran help Hamas pull off this attack on Israel and if so, should they be using that $6 billion. And of course I get if you look into it, you could argue in the comments below, but Matt that's only for humanitarian purposes. Remember folks, money is fungible. If $6 billion are going to be used there, that frees up 6 billion that could be used elsewhere, it's fungible.

It's not like we're counting the dollars of this dollar used here. this dollar used there. So this kind of makes sense to me until we have a couple answers. But I Want to let you know what Yellen the Treasury Secretary says about the situation? We have not in any way relaxed um, our sanctions on Iranian Oil And we are.

We have sanctions on H on Hezbollah Um, this is something we have been constantly looking at um and using um information that comes available to tighten sanctions. We will continue to do that. So I don't have anything new to announce just that. Um, these are areas we have long recognized Um Uh are deserving of constant detention with respect to our sanctions and we've been Vigilant about that.

I wouldn't take anything off the table in terms of future possible actions, but I don't certainly don't want to get ahead of where we are on that. So's crazy to me that first of all, Smeagle was invited to Morocco. But beyond that the fact that Gollum could say so much with saying so little. So at that point the Treasury Secretary saying no updates.

but between then and now we actually do have an up update us and Qatar will hold off giving Iran 6 billion in funds. money has to be distributed under prisoner exchange agreement Iran says there's been no change in its access to funds. So as of now, there's kind of a handshake deal between the US and Qatar I Have this for you. The US reached an informal understanding with Qatar to hold off Distributing 6 billion in oil Revenue that Iran was allowed to access under a prisoner exchange as the Biden Administration probes Teran's potential involvement in last week's Hamas attack against Israel so want to give you the update there.

That's what's going on in the Middle East That's what's going on with the funds, but the volatility in the world of politics doesn't end there. Let's bring it home a little bit. Steve Scalise does not appear to have votes to become speaker as GOP remains divided, so I'm filming this on. Thursday There was some murmurs some ideas that we might have a new Speaker of the House representing the GOP party as early as yesterday obviously didn't happen.

doesn't seem like it's going to be happening today. and now the prediction it might go the other way of instead of being Lickety splickety fast, it might go the other way and go really really slowly to get a new GOP which would obviously really muddy up the situation of getting things passed to deal with the current conflict. Representative Steve Scales of Louisiana does not appear to have the 217 Republican votes needed to become house speaker at this time. The House GOP nominated Scal as the party speaker candidate after he defeated Jordan in a closed door vote.

Jordan who had Trump's backing has come out in support of his police and is encouraging Republicans to vote for him, but several GOP house members are insisting that they will still vote for Jordan on the house floor. But I have a little bit more of an enjoyable update for you. and by enjoyable I just mean truly wild. Senator Bob Menendez Now I've been talking about him for a bit because he's the guy who just got caught doing something most likely he shouldn't be doing.

When they looked into his apartment and his house, all of a sudden, they found envelopes of money, gold bars they looked into his finances, people are buying him cars, they're paying off his mortgage and they're like dude and the whole time just so you know he represents New Jersey The whole time he's like I did nothing wrong I am what's going on here? This is just how I run my life. This is how I deal with my finances and every was like, well, that's pretty suspect. Well, the story's taken a pretty interesting turn. Senator Bob Menendez charged with acting as agent of Egypt in superceding indictment Senator Bob Menendez has been accused of acting as a foreign agent of Egypt in superseding indictment.

The indictment marks the latest: Federal Criminal accusations against Menendez obviously with the previous ones being bribery. the longtime New Jersey lawmaker and his wife were previously indicted in New York on federal charges. So I guess in his world, when it rains, it pours and it is obviously just getting worse and worse and worse for the guy. Little bit of an update.

kind of political, but also just kind of talking about getting hit with indictments. Uh, if you've heard of FTX the Crypto Exchange SPF Sam B Mree the kind of disgraced CEO Wild updates there on that case Caroline Ellison of FTX admits that Sam bribed Chinese officials with a $100 million to unfreeze their assets purposely tried to scam Saudi investors in the final days of FTX intentionally tried to sick Regulators on Binance to destroy his competition and that was all announced before lunchtime. The court case unfortunately is not televised, but the things that are coming out about it absolutely ridiculous so just wanted to give you a quick update of that situation. Now let's get back to the market.

So here's a look at the Spy, the ETF trekking the S&P 500. By the time the dust settled today, the Spy was down 6% the Qes were down 35, and in fact the only green things on my watch list were apple and Nvidia. The rest of it kind of a sea of red. Now what's interesting is early early this morning we got an inflation report the Consumer Price Index and it came in a little bit hot as in inflation was higher than expected.

that's not so good. that puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve the people in charge of our monetary policy to be a bit more hawkish as in continuing pushing down on demand which has the side effect of pushing down on the market. So at first when the market opened because of the hot inflation report which came out an hour before the market opened, things were not looking the best, but there was a bit of a recovery so we dipped right when the market came out, started to recover and then as you're about to see everything pretty much changed out one heading up into really the lunchtime session and that's when the market absolutely vomited the exact same way I do when I go on any form of roller coaster that goes upside down, but before we get into that because it's massively important I Also want to talk about inflation because it's massively important and it's both of these things paired together that really caused the Bears to have an absolute Feast Today, this is actually the exact report: the Consumer Price Index report, the Inflation Report I Just want to show you kind kind of where the hiccup is. obviously.

for the past what year and a half now, we've been seriously fighting inflation and it came in at 3.7% Now, if you're wondering if that's good or bad, we should be at 2% So it's not that far off and long ago we were at 9% so we're clearly heading in the right direction. So the progression is good, but the magnitude is still bad and the reason it's really slowed down as we're getting closer and closer to two is a certain sub sector. So you have the CPI the Consumer Price Index. Then you have core CPI which is the CPI without food and energy and you'll notice that's a bit higher 4.1 So we're starting to hone in on the issue, and if you want to see what's referred to as like the sticky inflation, what's really stopping inflation from continuing to come down? It is this shelter.

and actually this time around transportation services. So shelter Services right here 5.7 7.2 and then Transportation was 9.1 So I would argue it's this 5.7 number of services and then shelter itself 7.2 and then Transportation 9.1 These are the sub sectors that are really not budging. In fact, some of them are actually going up. so that is I Guess the subpart of overall inflation that is causing the FED members to rip their hair out.

So that was part of it. Obviously that was this morning and as I just showed you, this is when the market started to fall, started to recover, and then it fell again. So what went on in a second case? what was happening here. Well, this is a thing that maybe isn't talked about that much.

The US 30-year Bond auction, as you can see the last time around came in at 4.3% This time came in at 4.8 So these yields going up. Bond pric is going down. That's no bueno for the Bulls and the reason it's not really that much talked about. It comes out once a month and unless you're a bond Trader and interest rate Trader it's probably not in your Forte.

There's not too many degenerate option traders that are actively watching this, but today, it clearly had a massive m massive impact. So first let me show you what happened right when it came out. just graphically here: 1 P.m. you can see the 30e yield exploded to the upside.

and that's because of this Bed bids for 30-year Bond total $0 That's crazy bad. Treasury auctions bringing back rate Jitters stocks hitting session lows after 30e yield jumped over 4.8% at auction. de dealers were left with 18% of the auction the most since December of 2021. So in a holistic view this is basically saying whoa, People don't have the most confidence in the government economy at this point in time and just on a relative basis.

It's kind of like the least confident they were in quite a while so that caused yields to go up causing bonds to go down and that craziness. People in the stock market were like what's going on and obviously the stocks continued their vomit from this morning. So interest rates coming in or excuse me inflation rates coming in a bit too high that cause the market to come down. but then the market was able to get its legs under it.

and then at 1: p.m. we had this whole auction come out did not go well and that caused the second round of puking. So that's what happened today. But I do want to bring your attention to what might be coming down the pipeline tomorrow and at least the start of next week.

So in terms of big macroeconomic events so close out the week Friday October 13th Spooky Day there's actually no major macroeconomic events in terms of inflation, so you don't have to worry about that. but you should be paying attention to earnings. We are officially underway with earning Season this morning. Delta Mixed bag beat on EPS Miss on Revenue Walgreens Completely missed and then tomorrow before the Market opens.

Just speaking of yields and bonds and everything, bunch of big Banks JP Morgan City Black Rock Wells Fargo PNC We also have the Us's largest health insurance provider United Health Group This is the official start of earning season, so definitely paying attention to those. And when it comes to Banks, They kind of give us updates of their opinions on the market, the economy. what's going on with their consumers? Uh, their depositors? are they spending? are they saving? So it is pretty insightful. So that all comes out before the Market opens tomorrow.

and I guess just while we're here talking about it I Want to let you know that for tomorrow? Friday Right here. Uh, the seasonality does typically favor the bulls. The bulls have won stay over the past 25 years 61% of the time with a profit Factor above one. As in, it's profitable and coming in at 1.66 And here's a look at the equity curve.

Slowly but surely going to the upside. Obviously, last time last year, not so much in favor of the Bulls, but historically this day does tend to favor the Bulls. Now is that a guarantee? No. I'm giving you the odds right here.

roughly 61% So better than flipping a coin. but obviously not 50/50 so just want to bring that up if you want this. This is the newsletter that I write every week weekend. It is completely free M.

Locals.com it's in the description of the video. Sign up doesn't cost you anything and it'll end up in your mailbox every single weekend. I Give you a breakdown of what I saw what? I'm looking forward to all the earnings, all the macroeconomic events, some option strategy updates obviously charts of interest and all that good stuff. Speaking of charts of Interest I Want to talk about the Spy just to maybe things to pay attention to? First of all, if you're going to notice right here, the market did vomit, but look exactly where it bounced.

Two very important EMAs Actually, at this point, it was the 8 and the 13 that were roughly aligning together and that's exactly where the market bounce today. Now obviously tomorrow, if things continue to be bearish, that's the exact level I'll be watching and if it does break down, then I'm going back to watching this trend line. So maybe around 428 if 431 cannot hold on the flip side. Yeah, you could fairly point out that well, it sold bad, but obviously someone stepped in to buy it back up.

Which brings us to what is going down around the I Believe this is the 48 EMA this purple line. You could call it the 50. It's going to be roughly the same, but rejection rejection rejection. So looking for the test of that in the bullish? Direction and if that happens, then I' would be very quickly looking for the upside gaffle to 43843 which happens to be the low from Wednesday September 20th.

So that's what I'm going to be looking forward to in the Spy Obviously, beyond that, we have things to pay attention to such as the Q's which that's holding its Breakout it EMAs are looking even better. Uh, actually, this is looking pretty good now. it's up in this jumbly mess, but obviously Tech Sector is showing a little bit more strengths and then obviously, if you want more of my opinions on individual stocks, feel free to stop by the live stream. Pop in.

Ask about it! I Put some of my favorite ones in that newsletter, especially if I'm seeing major breakouts breakdowns anything along that line. But for right now, I'm not necessarily going to be predictive or anything of that nature because in the short term there's a lot of Randomness I Think it's better to be reactive. Wait for the breakouts or the breakdowns. Wait for tests of major EMAs wait for tests of major trend lines wait for the breaks, the fake out breakouts, wait for the falls, the fake out breakdowns.

Any of that, it's better in my mind to be reactive, especially in the short term if you're more of a day trader swing. Trader Rather than just trying to predict of what's tomorrow going to be, it's just one of these things of I Think it's better to be stacking the deck in your favor rather than just trying to play a random hand of cards. but that's my opinion on the whole situation. Whatever you're doing, keep doing it, especially if you're profitable.

That's what I have for you for today I Appreciate your time I'll catch in the next video. Peace Out.