Panic In The Market (What To Watch)
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RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
DISCLOSURE:
I have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMC & GME either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
Oh so wow, ah here we go moon gang. I am the best tesla trader on this side of the mississippi. Don't ask me what side that is. It doesn't matter.
I just know on this side of the mississippi. I crushed it. You know a lot of you. Might have thought maybe he's just gon na get lucky here and in all reality, that's exactly what happened.
This position was so wildly wildly insane. It almost cost me 15 000, because i was sick on tuesday and didn't cut it, and then i babed it all day. Yesterday and then i just got all the lucky stars aligned today when it comes to the market, is it better to be lucky, or is it better to be skillful if you're, given that opportunity just go with luck, take it from me. I just did it in real time.
Pick luck! 10 out of 10 times. That's exactly what happened. I had six puts that have been babying like i said they almost cost me fifteen twenty thousand dollars um, but now we turned it into a profit and we're close to locking in seven grand almost a thirty six percent return. Uh.
We have one more runner on there. I covered five of the six and i'm looking to get out of the final one before that market goes ding any ding, ding ding today so i'll be giving you all the details of that and i'll also be pointing out of kind of my thoughts on where The market was really turning today and i posted it to everyone on locals um, just i we called it out and i a lot of people actually made some money. I know someone made money off. The cue puts on that so shout out to the locals community.
They're, making making the bag on the day uh so we'll be going over that some call outs from the day. I have some articles for you and then do not forget. Today we have two important earnings announcements, both apple and robinhood um, so we'll be going over. That they will be coming out after the market closes today and then, tomorrow, before the market opens tomorrow, we have a bunch of oil energy sector, i'm expecting a lot of bullishness there.
I am very very bullish on energy right now and most likely for the remainder of the year and with all that being said, let's hop right into it all right. Here's the butte that worked out tesla, tesla, tesla tesla, the one that i i'm just the luckiest guy on the planet. This is not skill. This is this is proof that once today, thursday wednesday tuesday - i got some puts in here around like 9 20 and i bought the 8.75 puts.
Actually we can time stamp all of this, because we were posting it uh. Where was i all right? So this is so bad all right. So basically i had tesla calls and then i got whipped on tesla. I posted this on january 25th, i cut my tesla morning put for a loss minus 16 and then i got into a call got caught on that because the queues are showing weakness.
I re-entered into a tesla put. So basically, i got six puts strike 875 expiration tomorrow january 28th and i paid 32. This was on the 25th tuesday. Then i started feeling like crap. Thank you for everyone saying feel better. The next day i still had those expect extreme swings in the second half of the day, still held still hailed. We also know, after the fed that we saw that tesla was reporting and had a pretty good earnings, and then this morning it was going higher and i was like i am screwed, i'm out 15k, i'm out 20k. Whatever it is position updates sell.
My tesla puts not feeling the best about them, paying attention to their earnings tonight and i held and i held, and i held uh and then today, three hours ago it was around noon. I called out to everyone around noon right here noon. Three hours i said market is looking a bit heavy in my opinion. Maybe i'm right, maybe i'm wrong.
Please be careful. I called that out to everyone on locals that i thought things were going down. It's time stamped right there three hours ago, and then i just freaked out, because i finally made some of my money back. I am the best tesla trader ever sold half my position at 43 entry at 33, so that locked in 3k and then i am waiting on a final one.
So i haven't posted this yet and as soon as my final runner gets filled, i will let everyone know how i handled the rest of it, but just so you can see my final runner. The mark is currently 46.40 and i have a a fill at 50.. So i have like one runner on i sold five of my six and if, if this last one does get locked in which it's not locked in quite yet um we're looking at over a 30 gain. So that's what's going on in that situation with tesla wild.
Just pure luck, i i don't want anyone thinking that, like i was just sitting there and i'm like no, i'm right. No, i'm right, like i i'm so confident in this, like i don't care, what's going on, i'm just that right! No! No! No! No! No! It was the opposite of that. I was crying in my shower. I was in the fetal position.
I was using every hail mary like prayer up to the big man upstairs i possibly could, and it just somehow worked out. Sometimes that's how the market goes. Sometimes you can be right, you can be absurdly right, you can be confident, but it could go against you the other way. I don't want this to be like oh man like i ran all the tesla delivery numbers.
I was looking at supply chain issues. I was calling up semiconductor creators. I was looking at the demand in southeast asia - that's not how it worked. Folks, sometimes you're, just the lucky person.
That is an aspect to the market, and i wanted everyone to understand that that sometimes you're straight up lucky other times. You're straight up unlucky, there is an aspect to risk to this and it's beyond. Just like computing off like okay, here's, the ebitda, here's the fundamentals. I saw the delivery.
No! No! No! It wasn't that at all. It's sometimes you just get stupidly lucky other times. You get stupidly unlucky, it didn't. It is an aspect of the market. Today it was a lucky day for me tomorrow it might be an unlucky day. You don't know, but i think that's a good lesson for everyone to know is sometimes look. That's an aspect of this i think 70 - is your. I guess mental discipline 20 is your skill and 10 is straight up luck and in this scenario, my 70 mental discipline didn't work.
My 20 skill did not work. It was all 10. I am riding on my 10 luck today. That's how it worked out if we're being completely completely honest, all right.
So now, let's talk about some of the other things going on, while i'm waiting for my other phil, i two days ago, gave you kind of a setup of how i see this going and let me get rid of some of these because they simply don't matter. Um right here we were drawing this out and i was saying the scenario of: if we hit the 200, it gets rejected there. If we break down below 429 408, i think we are once again retesting. 422.
That's a nice six point move that we can all play very easily the breakdown of 429 428. I am 100 going to be playing. This fill right here to 422.. That is my plan.
It might happen today. I don't know what the next 20 minutes is. Gon na bring it might happen tomorrow. It might not happen at all, but i'm telling you a breakdown of well.
We kind of already saw it at 431.. If we see a breakdown of 429 428. I am looking to play that to the downside of 422. I'm looking to play this range if it breaks below 422 yeah, there might be more downside, but right now, 442 to 442 is a very real range.
We can play ping-ponging back and forth in terms of the queues. This looks like not a good situation um. If you have q puts right now, you are crushing it, but the queues are looking weak at this moment in time. Honestly, i would hop in on this at this exact moment, except i know apple reports tonight.
If apple has a good earnings similar to microsoft on tuesday, that might rise the raise the overall market, so i am not. I would prefer to go into today this evening flat. If it's up to me, if i can get out of my last tesla runner, i will go flat i'll wait for apple's earnings i'll see what happens in the morning and then i'll play the trend. I'm not looking to be the first one to the party, but i know i don't want to be the last.
I just don't want to be chasing it when i i don't know. What's going to happen, we saw microsoft like the entire market was positive off, of that apple. Has that type of sway as well in terms of the russell. If this breaks down of 190, we are definitely looking deeper if it goes any deeper 188 and then from there, i'm watching 184, mainly 184, but that's the next level.
In reality. We don't need this overall in the three major sectors that we're paying attention to. The russell is currently the weakest. It's down.
2.6! That's a big hit to us, particularly in this community, because amc has a strong connection with the russell amc is the biggest showing in the russell. So when the russell is getting jacked up and has a short interest of 33 amc has a short interest of 20 that that's a lot of downward pressure. That's a lot of straight up selling against it. That's kind of what's going on there right now. Amc is at a key level of support, but i'm telling you this. I don't want to be the bearer of bad nude news, but if the spy, the qs and the russell all go down more tomorrow, yes, amc and gme will also go down. That's going to cost me a lot of money because i refuse to get out of what i have in amc and gme. So that's why i'm looking for other ways to keep my portfolio either at water or ideally making more money.
Hence why i'm calling out? Maybe we get some iwm puts. Maybe we get some q puts. There are ways to hedge, your overall portfolio, this concept of going all in on one or two equities and doing nothing else and using all of your ammo at once. That is a detriment to you that will, in the long run cost you money.
I refuse, like i said, to get out of some of my key positions, so if i'm going to be in them, but i see them going down yeah, i'm of course going to balance it out like i did with tesla i own tesla, but i made money Off of tesla puts that's how i handle the situation because i always obviously want my account to slowly but surely grow. That's the name of the game, all right. So that's a breakdown of amc. Let's talk about gme, it was holding 100 very nicely.
Unfortunately, it broke down uh. The next level of support, i'm watching is 86 on gme and just to give you an update right, there short interest lowering a little bit at least the estimated short interest 18. But i think, when this comes in tomorrow, we're actually gon na see a jump in it just to for everyone to know my feelings of what i think is going down with uh gme. I think the update in the morning will actually be a little bit higher, but just so you know it's not just the equities market.
I know you're seeing a lot of red here, but unfortunately, the crypto market getting hit pretty hard as well. This is the heat map for crypto. This is hang on. Let me give you an update for the heat mat on equities uh.
This was all green this morning and we're going down down down. It is extremely rare to see tesla have anything more plus or minus than five percent. The fact that i needed 11 percent drop just to go even shows you how absurdly lucky i was in today's action. It just happens sometimes all right.
Let's get into some of these articles, i was just quickly checking on this to know if i should cut the runner, but i'll give it a little bit more 342. hang on what is the runner at right now, 39? Where are we at all right i'll? Just give it a second, because it is a runner we locked most of these already in, but there is this is there's just gon na be a push in and close there might be hey. I'm just gon na cancel, replace. What's it trading at 39., all right confirm and send all right. I got my fill. I got my last fill at 40.. 40. 6K.
All right, i will publish that all right. I just put that up on um on locals uh. So if you want any of those, i just got out of this because i don't know it might just push it and close, and i'm done with the runner, i'm just i'm counting my lucky stars uh this just to i guess, like articulate where this was out For me, it was about to get margin called or not, mar well technically, margin called because it went below 25k and since i've been actively trading, i've burned more way more than my three day trades. So i was gon na get hit with pattern day trading.
If this count didn't get back above 25k, but fortunately locking that last one in, i am completely flat on all of my option. Positions and the account is currently at 27.5 k. So back right where we were uh before i was being absurdly stupid, um so completely flat. I posted it if you want any of those option.
Trades it's right here. Also, if you want my callouts of saying hey, this is what i think about the market. Go to macquaries locals.com, you could check it out. There is a free version of it just so everyone knows all right now, let's get into some of these stories.
Reddit's wall street bets was the game stock king maker, but long time, users say the thrill is gone. Now this is kind of interesting because, yes, the wall street bets has a community - that's not really devoted to an individual, ticker they're devoted to making money and doing things that are to their definition of funny, and i personally find it very very funny. Wall street bets has been around since i believe 2012. I found it around 2015 um and i've been reading it like a lot ever since then, and then i was consuming like probably literally every single post of it as soon as the pandemic hit, because i had nothing else going into my life and then around august Of 2020, that's when i stumbled around at that point, who is named deep, f and value, and i'm talking about keith gill, the guy who, like is truly the guy who started all of this.
If someone needs any form of like, i guess, respect for like how this all got started, it is 100, undoubtedly keith skill, without that guy none of us would be here right now you wouldn't be here. I wouldn't be right here. This all 100 started because of keith gill. He is the guy that deserves all all accolades and all all respects, but anyway he was posting for quite a while um on wall street.
That's what he was doing and at first it was kind of like every kind of like month, and then it got every two weeks and every week and then daily, like i said, i fell in love, found him in about august of 2020, and that was the Time when he went from like weekly to every two weeks - and he was going every week - and you could just see that it was getting kind of more exciting in that summer and then as we got to 2021 uh, everyone kind of knew things were going on And then it was insane to see like what it all became, but what's interesting about it is still in the wall street bets at least the way i perceived it. I can't speak for every user of wsb, it's just me and myself and how i perceived it. It was interesting because it was a lot of people who did high ndd high end research, and i really really enjoyed that. And it was more of like. Let's do all this. But then, let's kind of like make a mockery of the overall system. And even though, we've proven that we understand all this, we're gon na make some big yolo bet it was. It was fun for that and then they had funny memes and all that, but it was.
It was always catered around doing this research and making bets that kind of mock the system and it wasn't really a dedication to an individual equity. That's why we've actually seen the spin out of super sunk and amc stock, because obviously those two are devoted to those stocks to those companies to those leadership teams, while wall street bets doesn't really have that culture wall street bets is devoted to more so making money. In a very yolo fashion, so when i see a title like this, the long time users say the thrill is gone. Well, you have to talk to the right people.
If you talk to people in super sonic, yeah they're still very enthused about gamestop. If you talk to people in amc stock, they're very enthused about amc to me, this is just not really the right place, because wall street bets itself has a different culture um. So i i want to bring that up just in case you saw it. I don't think it's really fun.
I think it's just like. Maybe a misunderstanding of the these subcultures that we have going on and hey i'm i'm not in any way hating on wall street beds. I love wall street bats. I love that culture, it's so funny.
It's the culture i've known now for over half a decade. I love reading it. It's super funny. Every single day like someone in there makes me crack up and laugh it's funny.
If you haven't ever checked it out, go check out that subreddit, it's hilarious, but i just kind of wanted to explain. Maybe i guess to the best of the my ability that i could articulate what is or isn't going on. Why we're seeing that? I guess this article, this deviation and kind of like how these cultures have over the past year developed and evolved, and now from there it's not just on reddit. Obviously you see a lot a lot of people on reddit still supportive of gamestop on twitter.
You see a lot of amc on youtube. I would argue you see both, but you probably see more amc than you do gme and for whatever reason, this is just how certain communities evolve. Yada yadda, but i just wanted to shed a little bit of light on that this one day, traders as dumb money, the pros are now paying attention. Well, we know that 80 85 percent of hedge funds, according to bloomberg, are somehow tracking social sentiment. This shows me as much as we're dumb money. They are paying, they are doing whatever they need to as software engineers to track us, because retail is obviously a force to be reckoned with. How many times since a year ago were we told that this was a fad and it would die out retail no way, no way no way. Well, look at us now look at us now.
This is, we are now a year old and i don't think we're gon na stop. Do i think, do i want to make a lot of money off my amc and jimmy? Of course i would love for it. I would love for these to go sky high, whether it's people fomo buying a squeeze. I don't care, i would love to make money off of it.
I'm not saying i'm some sort of altruistic, like monk-like mother teresa, like figure. No, i would love to make money, but if i'm being honest right now, what's more interesting to me, what's more impactful than people just making money is making change to me. I am far for far far more interested in fixing some of the down halls downfalls and the loopholes that people, hedge funds and banks and other players take advantage of in the current system. If i'm being completely honest with you, yes, i want to make money in amc and jimmy i'm not trying to like, say no, no, no, i'm just fighting for all.
That's good! No, but that stuff does matter more to me like i truly truly, if i were given the scenario to like, do all this stuff. Yes, that's where, like i want payment for order, flow needs to be looked at. The extreme amount of off exchange trading needs to be looked at. The sec needs to consider getting rid of pattern day trading the 13fs not reporting shorts.
That's insane the opaqueness around ftd reports truly insane. I could go on and on and on about the things we've learned just over the past year. Imagine what we're going to learn in the next next year. I want to make the market better and more equitable for all of us and for future generations, and if, along the way, i can make money off of calling some of these wall streeters out on their bs, and i make money off their mess up.
Yeah. Of course, i'm gon na do it on to the next thing. Here are the top 10 stocks bought by retail traders in 2021 number one reporting tonight: apple net purchases, almost 12 billion retail - remember this isn't just the ape community. This includes all of retail a lot of people who are just training that might not even know about the ape community.
This isn't what the apes bought the most. This is just exclusively what retail bought the most, but yes, apple, coming in at number. One and don't forget apple reports tonight and people are betting for big swings. The market is currently implying a 5.3 move in either direction in apple's, like reaction to the earnings plus or minus 5 for a borderline 3 trillion dollar company. That is crazy. We're about to be seeing the swing of billions and billions of dollars. It's all going down tonight and i think this one's going to be big enough. That will clearly have an impact on the overall market, namely the qs and also the spy number two amd 7.4 billion number three neo 6.8 billion.
And can anyone guess number four number? Four, any big guesses on number four, i'm sure someone will get it right. It is amc, 4.07 billion number, five palantir number, six, verizon number, seven, microsoft, number, eight tesla number, nine nvidia and number 10 ali baba so just want to run through that list. For all of you, but since we are talking about earnings today, the final thing i really wanted to share was robin hood. Robin hood is also reporting and i'm always going to be bearish on it.
Maybe today, tomorrow's reaction is bullish. Bearish, i don't know, but in the long term i see this thing going down down down sideways down down down sideways down down down and when it's done going down, i think it's gon na go down a little bit more. So basically, the main thing: if you are paying attention to this, let's say you load it up on a short position. Let's say you load it up on a put position.
The main things you want to pay attention to here is their active user base that were the adding users were users, in my best estimation, leaving in the form of a mass exodus, so pay attention to the users, the user count and also any developments related to Crypto, they are basically the way i threw a hail mary today with my own training account. Robin hood is throwing a hail mary with its company and it's betting on crypto trying to get this crypto wallet thing going to basically save it, because now, with payment for order flow, um people realize how dangerous it is. Gary gensler himself said in may of 2021 that robin hood explicitly went out of its way to accept higher payment for order flow in return for worse quality execution. It was so bad that the difference in execution - it literally would have just made sense to go to a commission based brokerage.
The chairman of the sec said that and right here, robin hood, we're democratizing finance. I just don't believe it. I think they're full of i think they are completely against their own message. It is very very obvious that many people have less robinhood and i think it's for good good reason.
But what blows my mind is that people switch over to weeble because we're like hang on, we didn't really know his payment for order flow. We just know weeble or excuse me robin hood stopped buying, but we know others did, but these other ones didn't lie to our face and they instituted. So there was a big movement over to weeble and then it was at that time. Did i? Okay? Let me put it this way. Did i promote robin hood at one point this past year? Yeah, because i didn't know what was going on then. Did i say: okay, robin hood seems pretty sus. Let's go over to weeble, okay, they seem good. Well, the more i learned about it: they weren't go back in time check it out.
I was the first person to get off of weeble. Do i admit i made mistakes yeah because i didn't know about payment for order flow. I accept that mistake. I messed up.
I just didn't know about it and i think many people watching right now. Many people in this community had no idea about payment for order flow. When i learned about what it was when i learned about what was happening, i switched over to public i'm happy to be on public there's no payment for order flow. There's, no market makers, most of your trades, are going to a lit exchange.
I'm super super happy to be on public because not only do i think it's a more moral, transparent company, but you could also see what people are in. You can see that i'm still in amc and jimmy you know what blows my mind is. I think it's obvious because of the i guess, trash fire situation that robin hood has going on yeah. It makes sense that no one is showing off that they're on robin hood anymore, but they are showing off that they're on weeble.
How is that any better seriously? There are many many people, well-known people in this community that are still actively using weibo. They are still actively using payment for order flow. If you ask me, you have no right to say you are arguing for the apes. You have no right to be against payment.
For order flow, when, day over day, you are using a platform that engages in payment for order flow, it blows my mind that this has not become a thing within the community that some of the well-known voices when they show anything off they're like here's, my weeble Account here's my weibo account. Here's my weevil account. How does that make sense? Someone needs to articulate that to me. I know i'm stupid, i get it, i'm dumb and maybe i'm just too a little stupid and dumb to understand this one.
But i i've gone out of my way to be on these other ones, show off what i'm in and then there's other people who are like yeah, no, i'm still just using weeble but trust me i'm an ape. I have your back, i'm against payment for overflow. Well, are you, are you really, i i just don't get it, i i just don't get it anyway. That's your setup.
For the day we have a couple minutes to the market goes, and what i want to really drive home tonight is pay attention to apple apple, apple, apple, apple, apple, apple, apple, apple should be the apple of your eye. It will be determining what happens in the post market session, the pre-market session and most likely out of the gate tomorrow. If the spy breaks below 429, i am watching 422 and i will be playing it. I'm telling you that similar setup in the queues similar setup in the russell, the name of the game right now, is i'm losing money on amc and jimmy. I need to make money elsewhere, because i'm not the kind that just sits back and takes a loss. I want to make money somewhere else to withstand the money i'm down currently on amc and jimmy. I am not a financial advisor. I can't tell anyone else what to do, but to me it makes logic sense.
If you want to hold something and it's going down, you should probably want to offset those losses somewhere else all right now, with all that being said, what kind of questions do we have all right? Let me hang on. Let me switch over to this hey matt. Just checking in have the shorts covered in their amc positions, absolutely not uh 20 short interest on amc and 18 short interest on gme. If you haven't already, i completely forgot about this, but what we have a couple thousand people in here, if you guys, could all completely annihilate that, like button, it would be great uh seriously it.
It really really helps me out more than i could possibly explain if you could just hit that like button, we'll jack it up over a thousand and it doesn't cost you a dime. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you same thing to the cool clan over there on rumble.
If you could hit that rumble button like subscribe all that stuff, it just helps get this video um presented to other people who might be interested. If you want that, crypto content go over to crypto course check that out, make sure uh. You know we're all we kind of how we have it all split up right now: amc at 1450 important support jimmy, would love for that to recapture a hundred, but with it i wish i could tell you my tune for tomorrow. I'm leaning slightly bearish, but i also think that it's very obvious it's all going to come up to how well apple, does or doesn't do i'm bearish on the overall market, but i'm bullish on apple beating its earnings.
That's my current prediction: let's see how it plays out matt. Are you going to add to your gme in amc positions? If i feel the moment is right, i don't think the moment is right, i'm very much uh afraid of what's going on in the overall market. If the spy breaks down below that, like 420 level, there might be more downside all the way to the 400s, i'm not going to be uh bullish on anything in the market. Until i see bullish shines like i'm, not just gon na arbitrarily buy when i'm not seeing things like actually turning around yet ding any ding ding ding, the casino is closed folks, that is it for today, tuesday january 27th, and it's not tuesday.
It's thursday. I don't know what's going on in my mind, i'm just absurdly stoked that i got out of that tesla position, one of my luckiest trades in probably a handful of years. I am completely flat and we took care of any of those. Pdt worries wild wild wild.
All right, thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I do appreciate all your support. Thanks for all those likes, thanks for all the subscribes, i will catch you bright and early 9am tomorrow, whatever time it is for you your morning evening afternoon night, i hope you have an absolutely fantastic one. Don't forget um pin to the top of chat right there. Ttg there is that trial, it's just three dollars um, but i actually want they are doing a live stream at 4, 30 to break down uh more of the fed stuff, but also particularly some of the tesla action.
So if you want someone else's opinion here, i'll just drop this link in chat, hey, i'm just copying it all right there you go, threw that in there just hey, it's always good to have multiple people's opinions. I'm just throwing this in all three chats right now. Once again, this is gon na be in about 30 minutes um, just so everyone knows um, so i don't know if you're looking to kill more time at work or something that will be perfect for you. Overall, your support's phenomenal all of you beautiful apes that make the moon gang what it is.
Thank you thank you. Thank you i'll catch you bright and early tomorrow morning and as always from me, and share best of luck in the markets. You.
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To the moon
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