Thank you! Foreign Foreign Testing Testing Testing Can You Hear Me Um, yeah, welcome back to the Mad Core show. As you can tell, I am wildly unprepared for today's episode. Oh now I'm getting some feedback. Where is that volume coming from? I don't know what's going on, we're getting some feedback.

Is this working? Is this working folks? If I told you I got sleep last night, that would be a lie. Uh, as many of you know who caught yesterday's show counts on the line. I have spy calls July 3rd, we're going for it. We're going for it.

We were going for it. didn't sleep, didn't really prep this video I am anxiously waiting to see what this PC report is. Uh, midday Yesterday full account went on the line into YOLO spy calls. Right at the end of the day, it finally recovered enough that I cut down because I didn't want it if it gapped down I would have been below 25k and then because I've been trading so much I would have got margin called.

So I cut it enough where even if the current amount blows up. So basically it's just over half, my account is on the line right now. Things are looking good in pre-market like I Must admit, we're coming up. I mean geez.

Where Do We End Out yesterday the Spy ended at 4 30 11. We're currently at 4 40. So right now things are looking good. But maybe for those of you not paying attention to the like macroeconomic report schedule, we are getting the Pce report in a mere two minutes.

In less than nope, just over two minutes, we are going to be getting the next inflation report. the personal consumption expenditure. This will undoubtedly cause the market to either rip higher which is what I want to happen or absolutely just get demolished. and then there kind of goes my account.

Um, so here we are here. We are here. We are here. we are.

We put it on the line This is peer gambling. This is not good trading. This is not a good system. this is this is degeneracy.

We are live streaming me betting way too much money on. Just like a gut feeling, we're just going for an absolute gut feeling that this works out the way I need it to work out I'm nervous I'm I'm very very nervous. uh, not necessarily the excitement of how much I can make but more so of fear of how much I could lose I'm just like all night I just have like I try to fall asleep and then I woke up and I'm like oh where is this gonna go and then I was thinking about the money and I was thinking about all what I could have done with that money and here we are here. We are here.

We are here. We are. uh so we have about a minute left. I I Try to prep some things for today's show but I'm I'm just so laser focused on what is about to happen or not happen.

If you look right here, you know that we're looking good in pre-market uh, potential? Well, we are gapping up so that means there's a downside. Gap fill to whatever this high is four, three, eight, two eight we're looking good I mean I have some upside targets maybe a 444 if we get there I mean it's things are about to get Bonker So we're about to find out the Fate Just so you know the Pce uh, we are looking at core PC if 4.6 I want it to come in lower than that I want inflation to be coming down I want a number lower than 4.6 but we're about to see how it's going. We are going to be finding out momentarily. I Will that is not long as far as Futures Uh, go ahead of these.

Buddies The S P looking to add 20 points it is on Pace. By the way, for 15 gain in the first half of the year, the dollar can be up by about 106 and the NASDAQ will can be higher by about 91.. All right, as far as yields go on the 10-year yield, uh, we are at three points. Eight percent is what I'm guessing at 3.872 Rex Santali is standing by the CME in Chicago Come on.

Rick the numbers please. Yes, we are awaiting anxiously. The May read on personal income and Spending headline number expected to be up three tenths of one percent is up four ten to one percent. Definitely better than expected and we continue to wait for some of the data to populate.

What we're all going to be paying very close attention to, of course is the personal consumption core deflator year over year. That number has been over four percent since September of 21. since September of 21. My heart is going so fast right now and we are now looking at personal spending is up one tenth a little bit light.

Real personal spending taking account of inflation is unchanged and here we go with the big numbers. The personal consumption expenditure deflator month over month up one tenth as expected. The year over year deflator of 3.8 percent in the rear view mirror, we had up 4.4 percent, which was revised up 4.3 percent. So we are indeed making progress there.

3.8 percent is the lowest level, going all the way back to April of 2021.. if we look at the core deflator month over month, it's up three tenths of one percent exactly as expected. Drum roll please. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Deflator year over year of 4.6 In last month, it was up 4.7 and as I said, haven't been so it didn't come in hot.

And when you look at recent data and I've tried to always be fluid in my interpretation, it certainly looks like there's a stubborn area here that isn't going to diminish anytime soon. Is the market going to buy it interest rates right now To sit back just a bit? The three Fields coming down? That's good. That's the reason s numbers are indeed this month and very close, if not better than expectations. But so it's not bad.

It's either neutral or leaning good. Okay, I think it demolished over the head with a hammer with this. Yes, we are making progress, but too slowly. So here's the issue.

Do they put the economy in a deep freeze by going too high on the rates? so they'd leave it higher for longer. And let's see if we can take out the time will tell back to you. It's interesting because the equity Futures Right now we got a little bit of a pop on the back of the numbers. Uh, the SB Now we can add about 25 26.

The NASDAQ can be higher by 126. we came in at 4.6 They're saying 4.7 estimated, but I think it was 4.6 estimated. Bring in two more voices to talk about these new numbers: Kevin Cummins NatWest Chief U.S Economist and Tiffany Wilding Economist at Pimco. Good to have you both with us.

Kevin I'll start off with you. what's what's your take on the numbers given the market reaction that we're seeing? Yeah, it was very much in line with our expectations coming into the number. so it's not too much of a surprise, both on the spending side or the core. BCE Deflator uh did show.

as Rick said, a little bit of an improvement relative to the prior month in April and the year on year ticked down a tent. so very much in line with what we had thought coming into this morning's report. Tiffany Does this change review at all? What the FED does or will do? No. I mean we think it's a very high bar for them not to hike in July You know? and I think there's still some question as to whether they actually get another hike in at the uh, you know, in the back half of this year, but we have a lot of data between now and then, so there's going to be a lot more discussion around that one.

Yeah. Rick As you had mentioned, we're watching the 10-year note right now 3.8584 so we're seeing that back down a little bit. Um, are you surprised at all at the market reaction? In terms of, you know, we saw a little bit of a pop and goal a little bit of strengthening the equity Futures You know I'm not surprised that the knee-jerk reaction because there aren't any really big negative surprises. There's the ongoing toothache and that ongoing toothache seems to take a bite as the sessions we're on.

So we want to pay attention, especially on this holiday shortened week uh, of uh, trading. and of course the the fact that we are coming back to a market that's going to be in a new password a new quarter. Hold on issues going on and just consider this mostly. even though at 384 for okay, here we go.

Right now it's at 488. At 488, it's close to 40. if you guys are serious. So yesterday I had 400 d-risks a little bit because I didn't even if my account went below 25k I would have gotten margins also I cut it.

um, got out of summit just above Break Even but I'm swinging 200 calls for July 3rd 440s I was in that 90. if this holds, it should be again. it should be a nice Gap And that line, we're closing above it. It comes in right around 484 485 and the fact is, if we close the week above that Melissa Lee It would be almost impossible for me to look at this chart not think we're at least that's four percent.

Yeah. and Rick considering you your basic thesis about the highs already being in and really that no more hikes make any sense, the market looks like it started to believe the FED a little bit more. Whether it's uh Portugal or or I don't know, you know, maybe some of the the most recent data. Do you have any doubts that you're going to be right about the highs already being in with with uh, things backing up? Now for for the past week, You know I It's not that I have doubts, but I would have to say looking at the charts that if I had to make a bet as to whether the fall high-yield close for the longer uh maturity treasuries is going to hold I would still say 60 40 Yes, but I was more 85 uh 90.

Yeah, about a month and a half ago and it isn't that you know the charts are wrong, things change and I think what has changed here in my opinion isn't necessarily what the FED ought to do I think the FED ought to do with the market originally had priced in with regard to higher for longer. What's changed is we're taking the calendar cycle of when the eases may come distorting the yield curve a little bit. And that makes sense to me because what really has changed here is is the Fed is most likely not not going to think about it in the same way that Raphael Bostic thinks about it. The Uh President of the Atlanta said they're going to be more in line with they want to be aggressive almost in a show the world show the other central banks that we are tackling inflation even though in 10 years when we look back, keeping it higher for longer in my opinion would do the job DWS and he was saying you know there's a wealth effect going on with the stock market and some can argue that you know that extends to the housing market too.

You have money in the in the stock market, you're feeling pretty. First half the year was gangbusters. Despite all these rate increases, does that change that? 8 30 came down a little bit, popped a bit more, coming down going just below 440. Yeah, I Mean you know I Think it all comes down to the labor market, The labor market has remained very resilient.

Uh, despite some evidence of slowing a little bit in the more recent uh, couple of months. you know next week will be really critical to the July meeting and the overall tone of expectation today going to be over Baron Berner I Hope so on their message of you know, the majority, the strong majority that Powell referenced the other day of you know, two or more raid hikes this year uh, it'll all be very data dependent. I Mean if ever the FED is more data dependent than it's ever been, right now, they're getting very close to the peak in the terminal rate whether or not it's there in July or maybe it's even have been there in May If the data turned, then the Fed's narrative and their expectations for further hikes will probably be dialed back more towards the line of Uh President Bostic And and he you know it came out the other day and said it's you know his job to convince the others, uh, to potentially wait things out a little bit more to see so that we avoid a more serious uh, contraction later this year I Think that's the downside risk I Mean it seems pretty clear that inflation, while it's been only very gradual so far, uh, inflation's a lagging indicator and it seems to have peaked and it's moving in the right direction. Uh, but just not as quick enough as the FED would like for here.

But if we're right that the economy is going to dip into a recession, their narrative can change pretty quickly that you know markets could start to reprice. Bitcoin 31, 000 East 1900 The stock market in terms of rates I mean is is the greatest above three trillion pushing 192. the FED would want to tame inflation Microsoft 335 to 339. two three more rate cuts and then an immediate Retreat I Mean how how do you think about the impact to lending? Etc Yeah, I mean the the thing that's really tricky about this and what makes Powell's job so hard Um, is there can be you know what we call non-linearities So usually when you have a recession, a recession doesn't just ease down nicely into contraction.

Usually the economy, you know, kind of chugs along. Okay, maybe it's decelerating and then at some point you effectively just fall off a cliff. You know what some have called the while E coyote moment. Um, you know.

So I think that's kind of what the FED is dealing with here. You know there's a lot of still underlying strength in the economy as a result of the pandemic related stimulus. That's still a nice positive overview coming up. Yeah, but that's not going to be with us forever and that's dwindling.

And I think there's a lot of reasons to say that maybe the the second half of this year is not going to be as strong as the first half. You have fiscal policy. that's gonna, you know, turn more contractionary student loan payments will resume. You know.

and then this underlying banking stress even though we're not seeing run on banks. you know credit is slowing and you are seeing tighter credit conditions. And if small businesses can't get loans, you know ultimately they're not going to hire and that's going to slow the economy over time, you know? So I do think you know. Obviously everybody's talked about this but monetary policy Works through lags and I do think that we will see the bigger brunt of the monetary policy tightening impact on the economy ahead of us.

So with all of that, you know I think it's very reasonable for the FED to be more cautious here. Um, you know we thought you know they could be done in in May Serious question: First Options Play Grab Spy 443s yesterday it opened. What the heck? Should I even be ready for here? Dude. Uh, if this pre-market push holds which I mean we're seeing some strengths spies battling it out at 441 cues are ripping Nvidia Apple Tesla things are looking good so you have about I don't know.

50 minutes to Market open? Uh, it's gonna probably I mean with The Gap up and the fact that you have a call means you should be in profit. Um I don't know if you're we I mean if it keeps going, you might be in the money. You need two more bucks, but you should definitely be in profit if you're not feeling the most comfortable like with in terms of your game plan. I Think it is good without a game plan if you somehow magically get in money.

if you're profitable, I would just take it. That's how I look at it if I get into a position and like if I'm just like dude I have no idea what I'm doing here and I'm somehow magically green I just take my money. That's how I would look at it because hey, like you could almost look at it as like a freebie I'm not sure if your expiration date Bilbo uh if your expiration date is like a while out and you're feeling confident, you can maybe swing it. but that's kind of you and your confidence.

But I think a good rule of thumb is if you're like oh man I have no idea what I'm doing and you're somehow green, we'll just take the money. It's an easy payday investment Potential from today fiscal overseas that happen. Um, if I had expiration today for 443s and you're getting this Gap up in your favor I would be personally I'd be taking my money at open, but I mean it's all up to you and your level of degeneracy. With Jitters the entertainment industry stressing out over at least two things ahead of the holiday weekend, even Indiana Jones might not be able to save the day.

Okay, well, we're rocking now. Stock futures rise to close out strong. First half on encouraging inflation data. So the Pce report just came out and pretty much well, depending on what source you use for expectations, it was either cooler than expected or at expectations core.

The month over month was at expectations. Spending was 0.1 percent less than expected. Income was an increase of 0.1 percent uh, relative to what was expected. Now before we get into all that, I Just want to let you know kind of a global update: China's economic woes are multiplying and Xi Jinping has no easy fix.

So right now you're going to hear a lot of Big Wall Street dudes talking about the Allure of investing in China but if you look at kind of its fundamental trajectory, at least in the medium term, things are not looking the best. It was meant to be the year it was meant to be the year China's economy Unshackled from World's strictest Ronin controls roared back to help Global power growth instead. The first half of 20 23 it's facing a Confluence of problems, sluggish consumers spending a crisis written property Market The situation in the world of real estate in China is absolutely insane. Flagging exports, record youth unemployment, and towering local government debt, the impact of these trains is starting to reverberate around the globe, impacting everything from commodity prices to equity markets.

The risk of fed hiking hikes tipping the U.S into recession has also heightened the prospect of simultaneous slump in the worlds to economic. Powerhouse. And what's worse is President XI Jinping's government doesn't have great options to fixing Beijing's typical playbook for using large-scale stimulus to boost demand has led to massive oversupply in property and Industry and surging debt levels among local governments. So really I mean and this is not a big brain call out for me.

Many people have been talking about this for a couple years now. The real estate World in China is definitely suspect right now just to rip through it just because I know some of you are watching what's going on uh in Nike individually Nike Post's first earnings Miss in three years as lower margins hit sports apparel giant, uh Nike was down on the news. Let's see how it's doing now with the market kind of popping Nike uh. coming back a little bit but it closed out at 1 13 37.

currently trading at 1 10, 40. got as low as 107 and 80 cents. so Nike a Miss there. Moving on to another one actually Apple because it's absolutely crushing it Apple closed at 189.59 which was an all I think that was an all-time high close.

and it we are now at 191.76 So definitively in that three trillion valuation area, Appleized historic 3 trillion valuation amid Big Tech surge, Apple is on the verge of becoming the first company to ever achieve a market value of 3 trillion the latest sign of Big Tech seemingly Unstoppable dominance in Wall Street The iPhone maker was on the cusp of making history Friday Rising Much as 0.6 to 1980 in pre-market trading, which would result in the equity capitalization of just above 3 trillion. It's up a shitload this year. It's adding many, many dollars to its market cap and obviously at the current values. If it can hold this when the Market opens, it will officially have traded in a normal Market session above the 3 trillion.

Mark And obviously, if you look at the daily chart here, let's look at the daily. it's just been non-stop I Mean, if you ask me my opinion on Big Tech right now, it's pretty much all overvalued, but you can't fight the trend eventually. I Do think it comes down, but it's obviously just not showing signs of it Now The same could be said about Apple which has also been looking. Really excuse me.

that's said about Apple my Microsoft Honestly, not that far behind. Microsoft Pushing 340. That could get exciting. Maybe another push to 352.

I Mean we all know Nvidia's been on a rip. We all know Tesla's been on a rip. Things are just ripping right now. I Think it's overvalued, but remember, the market kit can remain illogical longer than any of us can remain solvent.

So if you're seemingly just throwing on bearish bets because you think things are overvalued, well, hang on. You kind of need a little bit of price action to conform to that, Because if not, like, you're just going to get ripped apart, the market does not always exclusively trade at Fair fundamental valuation. Sometimes there's momentum fomo other events. Remember, there's millions and millions of millions of variables going into these decisions day in and day out.

It's not like it's just one variable of what's fundamentally Fair here, so please remember that right now. obviously you have a bullish position I showed it to you and yet I still think things are fundamentally overvalued I Do think we end up coming down? It just doesn't seem like today is that day. Indiana Jones Hits theaters for one last adventure, but box office prospects look shaky before we get into this. I Actually kind of want to ask all of you folks what's your favorite Indiana Jones Movie Uh, I Think this is a good question where I can learn more about my audience Out of all the Indiana Jones movies like which one are you gonna like if it's on cable TV You're gonna sit down and actually watch it I Didn't know this was the last one, but apparently it is and it kind of makes sense because Harrison Ford is getting up there in age Last Crusade Raiders Last Crusade Holy Grail The original Temple of Doom you guys are all over the map.

First one: Temple of Doom Raiders Temple of Doom Raiders the first one is still the best Last Crusade Man, you guys are definitely all over the map with it. Interesting. Hey, learned a little something about you box office analysts predict: Disney and Lucasfilms Indiana Jones and the dial of Destiny will capture between 60 and 65 million during the first three days in theaters. The film had a lofty production budget of nearly 300 million, making a strong box office showing important for the studio.

Not only is it more important than just this individual one, a lot of Disney's recent business ventures within making movies have not been successful as and they've been paying too much to make it versus how much it's bringing in in the box office. Dial of Destiny has mixed two positive reviews with critics saying the film doesn't quite capture the thrill of earlier Adventures but obviously those are critics and I usually trust far more in the audience's opinion of the situation than I. do what a Critic has to say Obviously The big news of the day was the Pce report. We also got personal income.

We also got personal spending, so this is it. We got huge report if you care about it. Chicago Business barometer is coming out at 9 45 and we get the final consumer sentiment reading at 10 A.M So there is a report at 9 45, there is a report at 10 A.M Uh, as of now, things are looking a little bit more dovish because inflation has been coming down more than expected. so that's a good thing which is translating to being bullish in the market.

and as you can see I am feverishly watching the spy at 441 remember going into close I have 200 YOLO call options and I'm just trying to figure out what the hell to do with it. So anyway, the Pce report uh, key fed inflation measure shows Prices rose just 0.3 percent month over month Court Pce. This is what was expected depending on what source you're using. if you look at the core PC year over year.

Well, it came in at 4.6 Some people were saying it was 4.7 Other estimates I saw were expecting 4.6 so we either came in inline or a little bit cooler than expected which is exactly translating to the market popping here at 441. I'm just praying that this holds I'm very much praying that this holds. So a report. the Chicago business barometer at 9 45, and the consumer sentiment.

and once we get that one, that's kind of all. she wrote in terms of macro economic reports for the week, the month, the quarter, and we will officially be halfway through the year. This is a big big time right now. Now, technically it's not quad witching and still either double or triple witching.

but where we're at at the end of a week, a month and a quarter, and now we're halfway through the years, do not be surprised at all to see large swings in one way or another. I Wish I could tell you I wish that my moon was a crystal ball that told me everything that was about to happen in the world of markets. Unfortunately, it doesn't. My astronaut keeps the secrets to himself I'm preparing for massive volatility.

massive swings just because this is a big time where the big players are moving a lot of money. I Wish I could tell you if it was bearish I Wish I could tell you if it was bullish I Don't know what I can tell you is that the seasonality of today does favor the Bulls I Could also tell you from a hysteric historic standpoint that July also favors the Bulls, but that doesn't necessarily benefit me when I have call options expiring on Monday which don't forget is a half day. A little bit of a public service announcement. the market will be closed this upcoming Tuesday July 4th and it's actually a half day on Monday July 3rd.

So most people are going to end up trading it, treating it as a two-day like trading holiday, but technically it is open for a half a day on Monday. Just so you know. so it's going to trade until about 1 p.m and then we're done completely closed on Tuesday and then the market kind of resumes normal activity on Wednesday In terms of the channel, if you're watching on rumble or I guess even YouTube here I'm still going to be posting content if I end up doing a stream. Obviously, it's not going to be a market stream, it's just going to be like we'll gamble or we'll talk about trading strategies or something like that.

But then for me, after this, the next normal stream will be on Wednesday. We might be doing a specialty stream either Monday or Tuesday. so make sure your notifications are on both Rumble and on YouTube. But but I want you to know that we have content planned for the entire time from today all the way up until Wednesday, We have a bunch of content planned for you and a specialty interview will be dropping on Monday Monday July 3rd.

Uh, it's coming out on Rumble the normal Rumble Channel but it's coming out on that new channel on YouTube. So on YouTube on Monday there is going to be on the main Channel Some like just cool algorithmic trading stuff. but the interview with a veteran trader. she's uh, like kind of a genius PhD mathematician.

She's been trading for 42 years. she's only had two losing years. She absolutely destroys it. Her name is Sunny Harry is one of the most impressive Traders I've ever had the opportunity speaking to, that interview will come out on Monday Monday Monday Monday if you're watching on YouTube it's on the new channel which is in the description of the video.

It's the one where I talked with Tom Nash and Davidson there's only two interviews there. if you're on Rumble it's going to be on the normal Rumble channel so that's for Monday So we have a Full Slate of content planned for everyone. Five things to know before the stock Market Bell goes. Dingity ding ding ding ding today.

Honestly, I'm just praying it goes up. Yeah, you might know what's going on. you might not know what's going on. We're closing out half one first half.

We're halfway through the game and we'll see how it plays out honestly in a little bit of a reflection. I In no way expected the market to go like this. Uh, I I mean I it. just when I look at these valuations.

things are so high the FED is fighting. It's just the market is attempting to once again call the Fed's bluff. and we've seen this before. And the handful of all the other times like it.

just it didn't work really at all. Uh, and then this time. As of now, it kind of seems like the market has the upper hand, which is absolutely crazy. But this comes that back to the thing that I've been pitching hard over the past two or three weeks, the market can remain illogical, longer than any of us can remain liquid.

So even if you're like, well, fundamentally, it should be higher Lower This that the other thing what rules the roost, what makes you money is price, action. And really, what makes you money is following the trend. So if the trend's up and everything still tells you that it's fundamentally overvalued, it doesn't matter because if price is going up, that's how you make money. You don't make money in the market by being the person who's like, well, I was right about the fundamental analysis.

Yeah, maybe sometimes you do if you're making a position right when things revert to fundamental value. But remember, we can stay outside either above or below fundamental value for a long period of time. Typically, if you look at your own trading account, things revert to fundamental value right after you throw in the towel and just admit defeat. That's when it's going to revert to the price that you think it should be at.

So really, I think it's a better mindset to just ride with the trend. Final Decision Day. So not only is it the final day of the week, the month, also the quarter, This alignment also means that for the Supreme Court that they need to make some decisions. So if you missed it yesterday, the Supreme Court basically said that affirmative action in colleges is unconstitutional, but there's one other big thing that everyone's waiting on.

Supreme Court Decision on Student Loan Forgiveness expected today within 24 hours. Actually, now, even less this must have been written last night. We today are finding out if student loan borrowers are likely to learn the fate of Biden Administration Debt Forgiveness Plan The Supreme Court is expected to issue its decision today Friday June 30th, which could be the last day of its term before it breaks for summer recess. So I mean it has to be decided and some of the details on it are.

basically if you make less than 125 000 and uh, you have Federal loans, they could cancel up to 20 grand. Now obviously you have individuals who are not happy with it because they think well hang on. Why did I save and work and Skip vacations and buying the new car to pay off my debt when other people are going to have it forgiven? and I kind of understand that. I Also think college itself is just the inflation in prices and colleges far more than the inflation and pretty much anything in normal life.

So I think colleges themselves in terms of what they charge and what you get are complete. So I Kind of see it from both sides. I Really Do? Um I mean we're going to find out as of now, just from the things I've been reading on the interwebs, it does seem as if the court is currently leading that he can't do it. And obviously there's going to be strong lobbying from companies such as I don't know Sofi who they.

Their business model relies on people paying off their student loans, so there is going to be I mean so far I believe and maybe another company actually like kind of sued the body in a minute. Well, not kind of. They literally straight up sued the Biden Administration saying what you're doing is illegal like, obviously. um, they feel as if it's an unfair encroachment on their business.

So we're going to find out. Most likely coming out today. So that's kind of the vibe. Uh, moving on.

hold on to your homes. It's a holder's housing market. We've been paying attention. Still, things are: Sky High the three trillion dollar watch as in we're watching for Apple to oh, it's way above it right now.

Apple I Mean if it's above 191, it means it's above 3 trillion. I Thought it was 184, but that must have been the last go round when it was running I Guess they sold some shares or something. or maybe oh, it's because they were buying shares back or something. something.

At first the math came out to 184 but something changed where. I Guess they just have less shares now so it must have been Apple buying shares back um I would assume I guess I need to look into it but now obviously 3 trillion is that though. just so like 190 80 or something like that. Uh so anyway, yeah, if things hold and we have 32 minutes to go, Apple will officially be the first three trillion dollar company ever ever, ever ever on the U.S market, so that'll be exciting.

I'm not currently playing Apple but it would be sick to be playing some of that box office. Blues Indiana Jones hits theaters today Friday and the box office Buzz is looking a little meager. Harrison Ford leads to Fifth and likely final installation of Disney Lucasfilms franchise. Promising audiences, a nostalgic, star-studded and high stakes.

Adventure That plus a 300 million production budget has the makings of a blockbuster. I Think it'll be fine I mean I know Recently the Transformers movie was a flop The Flash Movie was a huge flop and Elemental was a pretty big flop. but I could see people I mean it does have that nostalgic pull. So I think I mean I would say I'm gonna see it.

why not like it's just like I'm not expecting one of the best movies ever made, but I'm expecting a good time and I do believe it's gonna have a good time. So when these critics come out in full force and they're like we don't like it I Don't know I think they're just kind of being a little bit boring I think they're being a lot. a bit boring in all reality. Speaking of boring, we're going to talk about the opposite.

My current position: Mama Cores didn't raise a This is what I'm doing. My account is on the line today if this Play Misses and things are looking pretty good right now. Uh, the account would fall below 25k and I would get margin called and my account would just be completely destroyed because I've traded too much it would go below 25k. I had a five like in retrospect you violate PDT So right at closed yesterday.

uh, you guys saw me do this I'm currently holding the position I have 200 YOLO spy calls strike of 440 expiration July 3rd I paid 90 cents each Risk Huh? Target Huh I'll see you in hell. So that's where we're at on it. That is 100 where we're at in this situation and we're gonna see how it plays out. We are definitely gonna see how this one plays out.

Uh, so technically I'm in the money now, which is nice. Uh oh, if you want to be a goonie, sign up if you want this type of information. If you want to see the way my mom raised me, Macquares.locals.com pinned to the top of Chat in the description the video. It's ten dollars a month.

If you want to try it out. one month for free, use the code Goonie, G-o-n-i-e There's also a way to buy it for a full year where you get two months off and it's just a hundred dollars obviously. I Price this very cheaply. Ten dollars a month if you're trading, you can most likely four to ten dollars a month.

I'm not saying you have to, but I obviously try to price it with that in mind that it would be accessible to most people and you could get the first month for free by just putting in the code. Duty Macquares.locals.com Uh, so want to throw that out there? and now I have to admit that I am feverishly wondering what's going on with the market I'm I'm feeling good I'm feeling good I'm feeling good I'm feeling good. Uh, obviously the Market's going up the PC I was worried. Obviously my heart was going.

uh. the Pce report could have rugged me if the inflation came in way too hot. I Mean we would probably trading right now down below like 436 3, 4, 35. Uh so um.

foreign. We'll find out. We'll We'll find out. We'll find out.

We'll find out. We'll find out. I'm nervous things are looking good. My heart rate has calmed down I wish I put on my Apple watch.

Uh I wish I put on my Apple watch. to see how this is going now I need to come up with some form of a plan for actually exiting like so I I crossed the first the first issue here. um, the first hurdle is successfully cleared now I need to find some exit plans. Okay, 442 is definitely something I'm interested in.

We got some Wicks above it, rejected, rejected, rejected and we had some support. Okay, so 442 I think is a good mid. Target Uh, we're at 441 12 right now. Um, so really 441.90 just to go 80 more cents like at open.

That may be a good place to scale out and then other than that, I'm watching just below 444. this is a high risk. Uh, if you are in a similar-esque position as me right now I want you to know that there is a chance. Evidently that right at Market people are like dude, it is the end of the week, the month, the quarter.

We want to end our half year mark in nice profit. There could be serious amounts of profit taking. That's totally possible. Understand, if you hold through like after the open, you're taking on more risk.

If you're gapping up and you're in profit and you continue to hold, you are taking on more risk. Obviously, there's also a chance that the momentum carries it and we do. RIP to 442 443 444. It's a big risk in both ways.

Big risk in the bullish Direction big risk in the bearish direction. So obviously it's up to you and how you want to do risk management. We're talking to thousands of people right now, so we're all going to have different ideas on what good risk management is. We all have different account sizes.

We all have different rules such as: PDT no PDT we all have different time frames. We all have different expiration dates. There's none of us the chance of any two of us in here being in the exact same situation. It's zilch.

It's zero. It's a goose egg. It's nothing. So you just got to do what's right for you.

Now for me: I tried to de-risk a little bit yesterday by instead of having 400 YOLO calls I had 200 YOLO calls and honestly, I'm still happy with that because I would have actually messed up my streaming if it did go down and I went below 25k. I would have been able to stream my trades during the day because I would have been uh, there would have been a margin call in my account. so like I at least in terms of putting on the show, had to keep my actual account above being margin called. so I basically maxed it out to the point that I could without like having to literally pause the show.

um close your position at open Mac close. Um, but like so like what? I like I I mean obviously in here I'm opening up myself to thousands and thousands opinions. but like when people say that like close it right at open this that the other thing my concern or my issue with that is when people try to give that it's like you got to show me some sort of evidence Like you could easily say swing it You could easily say close it You could have your own opinion. but at the end of the day, obviously it is my account and I'm going to do whatever I can do to make the most money like whatever I think is appropriate and I appreciate your thoughts I appreciate your input I learned a lot from a lot of you, but even in environments like this, it feels like a lot of you are like you're just focused on the fact that you're green.

You're like oh, you're up money. You should take money. But that's not necessarily a good trading methodology at all because you need your big Winners to outpace whatever grouping of losers you have. So like this mindset of being able to like.

oh, I'm up a little bit when I'm green. how will that ever pay off for your grouping of losers like I I just don't see it and like to me I mean I I know about seasonality? Uh, I see what some of the bigger players are doing I see what's going on with options flow? Um, like there might be a fair argument of you should de-risk that open but for those of you who are just like dude, just take your money and go like it's just like I need some sort of mathematical reasoning from you of like hey, like with this type of a showing, there's this chance of a pullback. Do you want to take on that chance like I I still see like a lot of emotional trading and that the concept of if you're gapping up and just taking your money I actually agree with you if you don't have a plan. but if you do have a plan, why would you throw the plan out of the window like that's what I don't understand Matt you haven't slept.

That's proof you should sell well I haven't slept because I bet too much. But now the BET's going in my way and now that new information has come about. I Saw the Pce report. The Pce report was arguably bullish because inflation's coming down more than expected.

So we have a macro economic event that is in favor of the Bulls If you look at the daily chart: higher highs, higher lows one two three, four higher higher higher low is higher higher higher So you could say well, hang on Matt like I mean to have a fair discussion here you could be pointing out whoa whoa whoa If we're gapping up, you might be like well, I know the odds of a gap they'll play I would actually maybe be looking at that and that's actually a very fair like mathematical argument would be like dude, you've showed us the numbers related to Gap fills. Obviously, we are gapping up quite a bit currently trading at 440 150. yesterday's high was 438.28 You might just be arguing dude, even if it isn't a gaffle, even if it comes down two bucks, you're going to be losing a lot of your money. That's a very fair argument and that's one.

I'd be like yeah, no Okay, that's a that's something to consider. It's always risk reward, You're never. there's never a perfect thing where you're like I am a hundred percent certain XYZ is gonna play out. You're always continually weighing all these factors.

So as much as we're looking at a gap up and that increases, obviously the odds of a downside Gap though which would hurt me because I have calls and I don't want it to do that. On the flip side, we're seeing momentum. We're seeing a breakout. We're seeing a positive macroeconomic report and then kind of.

The wild card in this scenario is actually the date: end of the week, end of the month, end of the quarter. We are halfway through the year, so that is also kind of problematic. because it's a wild card, It could either really benefit me if these big money. Players If the quote unquote whales are deciding to yellow in and they want to create a bullish position going into the new Week, the new month, and the new Quarter.

On the flip side, if they're looking to just lock in their profits for this exact time frame, once again, really wrapping up the quarter, there might be some profit taking. so there's bullish things going on. There's potentially bearish things going on, and there's definitely a considerable Wild Card Obviously, based on the market right now, I would say the odds are slightly favoring the Bulls and that's why I have my position and that's probably why I'm not going to be taking my profits right at open I might de-risk it a little bit because I took outsized risk and this time around I got lucky I mean it easily could have blown up in my face the way the trade two days ago did. so.

there's various things to consider, but the one thing I really want to stress is there's no successful Trader I Ever know of that. Just as soon as they're in profits, they're taking their money like that. that just does not exist. Good Traders Lit their winners right and they cut their losers quickly.

Winners ride. Losers get cut quickly. So I Think that's very, very important. Very very very important.

You have to think of this as a system of Trades not as like one individual trade that that's wildly wildly important. Think about it as if you're playing poker or if you're playing at a blackjack. you're looking to be in the game for multiple, multiple, multiple hands. So for me I think the smart thing is I'm targeting that 442 level that I just showed you 442.

Um, I would love to scale out a little bit there I just see some resistance, some support some chops. So 442 it's a nice level. but then next up I see 444 So I have 200 calls I wouldn't mind dumping either 50 or 100 of them, either 25 or 50 of my full position at that level. In terms of pullback risk, unfortunately, it is wide because we have a downside.

Gap Filter 43828 so if it feels like it's vomiting there, I could always just take my profit and I can re-enter so if I feel like there is a vomit coming on, I might kill the whole thing. look where the bottom could occur and I could always re-enter like and then if it just keeps selling, selling selling well then cool I avoided the whole thing. so that's definitely something that's like playing through my mind right now that I'm actively thinking about is like if I see a crazy amount of profit taking at open, maybe take everything off the table, wait for the in any bottomings like pattern if it does exist and I could always re-enter for a different expiration date and at that point I could also size down to more of a reasonable size. So various things to consider.

Various things to consider in this and I'm I'm excited I think it's going to be a good one. I'm also looking at the Futures Market here, which has just been ripping as well. I mean this is, um, actively trading. Remember the Futures Market does trade on the Globex session, which is another way to say that it trades trades 23 hours out of the day excluding Saturdays it trades from 6 p.m on Sunday to 5 p.m on Monday It takes a break from five to six and then it just keeps doing that all the way till Friday Uh, here are the levels: I'm watching for any of the Futures traders in here I was looking at the breakout at 4460.

my next Target is 4475 and then after that, four, four, eight, five these are the levels I'm watching on the Futures Market Actually, maybe we'll just set up some alerts just so I know because we might not be watching the features so intently. The Spy options should be opening in three minutes, so we'll see if that actually goes. uh I don't know if those ever did those get created. It says so.

but I don't see that little clock thing Anyway, Okay, looks, we're looking strong thus far. Looking strong Looking strong Looking strong Looking strong Looking strong. Um I'm sure some of you in here are going to be up even far greater than I am. and I I wish you a massive congrats I Hope you're having a good one and hey, it's There's so many things to consider.

So for me I don't have the most time today so I know I probably need to be out around midday because I have things to take care of. Some of you are going to be able to watch every single second chart of the day. So okay, that's a thing to consider. Some of you are actually leaving for vacation because we're going into a holiday and you might only have five or ten minutes and that in just like one little example.

I showed all the variables. There are various variables that need to be considered because we're all in just different situations. we're all living a different life, a different truth, and we all have to consider different things. So yeah, some of you who might have yellowed in or maybe you have a long time, it doesn't matter, maybe you have different different expirations some of you are probably going to be thinking about.

Well, okay I have to catch a flight at 10 so I only have a half hour to do something here. Others of you are gonna be like dude I am not doing anything so I'm going to generally trade all day today all day Monday We're all on a different page and the one thing that's the commonality for everyone to be successful is no matter what you're doing, it's your risk versus your reward in this situation. It fortunately went my way where I kind of don't have risk anymore I mean at a minimum one Fair Way you could all argue at me is like, for the love of God you might as well at least set your break or your stop to break even there's no there's act I Would agree that there's no good argument at this current situation to risk any money. The question here is how much profit am I going to make? How can I play it? But the point of like risking money is now silly because I'm it's it's going to Gap up so far away from my entry price that we should be good so that that's a fair one.

Uh, I YOLO would put so everyone, you're welcome Bob We appreciate you. We appreciate you. we appreciate you. I Believe this opens up.

um in my right to say that the on Weeble the Spy well in the world spy options opens up at 9 15 instead of 9 30. I don't know if Weeble shows the prices though. Does anyone know that we're about 20 seconds out? Remember I have 200 I was slightly up at close. The account has gone from like 10K all the way up to I think the highest I saw it was 65.

maybe maybe 60 65 all the way down to 30 yesterday. Then it bounced back up to 39. Massive volatility. The just like telltale signs of a degenerate.

um, well, it's 9 15 but I didn't see an update. uh uh Weeble doesn't? Well, can anyone tell me what they're trading at on like think or swim? Uh, now my heart's gone again. uh uh. Spy options July 3rd what am I in I'm in the 440s 440.

they're currently trading at no, no, it's not here as either son of a 440. I'm I'm seeing this price check. Interactive Brokers Do I currently have a position in our interactive brokers I Kind of forgot about that. No.

I don't uh. Interactive brokers? Okay, let me switch this over just so you guys can see what's going on in the market. Uh bye. If anyone can get me the current price I would be much appreciative.

I Options Options chain got it. July 3rd uh I'm I'm still seeing that price of the high 90s. Um, well, not there right now. not there right now.

but I'm pretty sure or maybe it's just SPX I mean that but I wouldn't know the exact conversion. Turns out we have to wait another 15 minutes to find out where I'm at. and I wish I could do a quick calculation on it, but you need the current IV Man, it feels like it. Well okay, let's look at it this way.

At minimum it's at a dollar fifty two because I'm in the money by that much. My strike was 440. and at minimum, when you're talking about options, value in option premium premium value comes from two things: intrinsic value and extrinsic value. That's how premium is really computed.

That's what you're looking at. Your intrinsic value is the difference between the current price and your strike price. If you're in the money, if you're not in the money, you have no intrinsic value. So the fact that my strike is 440 and we're trading at 441.55 means I have a dollar fifty five of intrinsic value.

The other part of this equation is extrinsic value. and that's pretty much computed by what you're looking at in the Greeks how much time until you have till expiration. So obviously as you get closer and closer and closer, that little aspect of it extrinsic value. Extrinsic value is dying off.

because you have less time for something to happen. You can look at volatility if volatility is increasing. Well, that increases the chances of the equity moving. So with more volatility utility, you're going to end up having more extrinsic value.

So you're going to want to look at things like your Theta, your Vega your Delta gamma's the rate of change of Delta. So basically your extrinsic value is really best defined I would say by most people as your time till expiration, the more time, the better that'll add more extrinsic value. And really, the volatility, the more volatility, the better. So right now based on intrinsic value alone, these should be trading at a dollar sixty one I'm in at whatever 90 cents.

so uh, what's that? a 70 Cent increase? so that's up just between 75 and 80 percent gain on that. But then also we have extrinsic value so I'd have to look at the current volatility of the spy and also the time till expiration which every single minute is getting less and less and less. So obviously if I can get out at 4 42 this morning, that's better than getting out at 4 42 this afternoon because you want to do it when you still have the most extrinsic value. If the Spy or let's just take the current value, let's just call it 440 150..

for me, getting out at 440 150 at open is more valuable than getting out at 441 just before close because of time like the premium itself will be trading at a higher value because it has more extrinsic value even though it has the same intrinsic value. Does that make sense? Did I did I explain that to a way that you guys like it? Kind of stuck there Or did I lose people? I'm more than happy to I I Guess go further into that one. The concept of intrinsic extrinsic intrinsic. The Tldr is the difference between the current price and near strike price if you're in the money.

if you're out of The money, there's no intrinsic value. Extrinsic is basically time till expiration and volatility. Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good good I'm just nervously saying whatever I can at this point because I just want the market to open I just want honestly wasn't listening Chad I I at least appreciate that you're a straight shooter I Ordered a Baconator combo. What are you talking about dude? Solid pick.

IV is 9.19 Delta is 0.344 Ask is 97. No, the Ask was 97 when the market closed yesterday. Uh, it's it has to be I Mean at minimum right now it's it's 159 at minimum without counting any of the extrinsic value. How much should you have as your account to make these types of plays? Well, you could scale as much as you want.

You could have made this play that I made if you had ninety dollars in your account. I mean I just bought a lot of them. but the original thing that I did was only 90 bucks. I just happened to buy 200 of those and at one point I had 400 of those.

but if you just like wanted like one single contract, it would have only cost ninety dollars. Um, but like the scaling I mean there's people in here who have an account far larger than mine. and there's people who have an account that's smaller than mine. So like I wouldn't focus on money gain, money loss.

it's trading is a game of percentages. It's always always about percentages, your percentage gain, your percentage loss, and like the percent that you're risking. the percent that you're going for I would never focus on magnitude for example, it's not really impressive at all if you have a million dollar account and you make a thousand dollar gain because like you just have huge leverage and you went for a little tick in your direction and you took your money in your left. Now if you have a 500 account and you make a thousand dollar gain, well that means you made a 200 return if you make a thousand dollar gain.

so uh I wouldn't be focusing whatsoever on like pure like the magnitude of lap wins and losses like yeah yeah it's gonna matter. but like in terms of like I guess what? I consider to be quality trading is just like tell me percentages like which are compound annual growth rate like what? what's your sharp ratio like? There's so many things to consider in that uh have you considered prop trading? you know, not really I don't know why I don't even have like a good explanation for why not. Um I've heard that a lot of the prop challenges are difficult to pass because they're like really stringent in your in their pullback Like rules uh I've never prop traded once but um I've lightly considered it but for whatever reason I just haven't like done it I just haven't pulled the trigger on it for whatever reason. uh, just not.

haven't really really done it. Hey folks before we open today just to spread a little bit of good luck, could you guys help me out and destroy the like button on both Rumble and on YouTubes And don't forget to uh sub as we get into the holiday weekend celebrating America The birth of America and the birth of the world Ferrari Shares are hitting in all-time high now. 50 of the Year race is their ticker symbol. race breaking fed interest rate expectations jump after PC data they are now they're 87 chance.

We might as well just call it 100 chance Future: C is 39 chance of at least two more hikes by October Market sound now replacing in a 5 chance of three more hikes in 2023. All right. Nasdaq Futures inverse shoulder head shoulder on whatever time frame this is. um, broccoli.

That's a market prediction for going green I Do like this account. Wifey? All right. Uh, testing the waters with a rumble exclusive stream tonight. Conveniently, when the rumbles is giving out 10K with thought I'll see you there, come say hi I'm a fat positive influencer who weighs 258 pounds and I look gorgeous I Guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

What is this? Ice cream time? Well and and the ones that didn't vote for your bills but run on them? No choice. Mr President Thank you thank you thank you very much thank you thank you thank you. Don't go anywhere. It's a very exciting day around here.

Um, we'll have reaction and Analysis to everything we just heard. Well and and hey when it when the ice cream truck's there, the ice cream truck's there. All right. You guys know the name of the game.

There's really not much more specialty thing I could get into at this point. Besides, we're just waiting for the market to open and I'm praying that this thing makes me butt. Loads of money so I can pay for my Independence Day shenanigans. Uh uh, were we missing anything else? Is there any other major breaking news today? I'm just worried if there's going to be a lot of profit taking at Open.

If the whole Market had the mindset of the people in here, it would just be a hardcore self-est at Open which I find worrying. So I don't know if people like you guys are controlling the market or if there's going to be some Trend followers who are going to tough it out. Uh I Kind of hope that you guys and your whole take money just because you're up type of a thing. Um, we'll see, We'll see, We'll see, We'll see, We'll see, We'll see, we'll see, We'll see.

if you keep saying it will happen. We do have quite a bit of an impact on the market. We do have quite a bit of impact on the market. Um, hey, could you guys help me out and hit 500 on YouTubes before the Market opens? We're at 287.

So basically if 212 of you hit it right now, you just take a quick break and just smash it before it'll just I'm just trying to get a little good luck for myself going right here at Open Dude. Oh my. God How degenerate would it be to watch the one second chart when the Market opens? Uh, maybe we'll set it on the 10 second for now just to see how things go just to see how Wild it is. 386 Man, you guys blew it up by 100 just like it was nothing.

uh rumbles I noticed. kind of loads it in tranches like what we're we're at. uh, we're at 85 right now with 800 watching. but I think when the market does open, that's when we end up in my future.

today. feels like a maybe we'd get featured. No Rakita law. Rakita law is really popular over here.

We're usually in the finance section. There we are America America America America is all of these live. Every single one is live on the leaderboard right now. so this liking on YouTube helps out with the algorithm.

Liking on Rumble helps you get on the leaderboard and I guess um you have Crowders number One, you have Bongino! You have fresh and fit freshen fits all the way up there at three. geez good for them and then another fresh and fit one. Interesting, interesting, interesting, interesting, all right we have exactly uh damn you should have kept your position, chat mess you up. uh I don't mind that because I think that's once again kind of doing the Monday morning quarterbacking of like oh like I would have been up.

like to me that feels a lot like Monday like when things go in your favor and you're like I should have bet everything it's like well you don't know, you can't you can't do that I mean there's really no reason ever to be betting your full account on something. uh Beyond trying to make some high quality content for your Digital internet friends. Um but in terms of like any risk reward like methodology, it's just fully degenerate. Um so I I honestly don't mind that at all that I like it I think anyone would actually just be like dude based on your current position, you should be at like a tenth or a 15th of like even the current one.

So I still have way too much risk on and it fortunately went in my way very very fortunately. but uh I don't I don't think Monday morning quarterbacking in this situation is like necessarily helpful but like because it's just it's the what it Coulda Shoulda I mean what would I'd be getting a lot of comments right now. Imagine if the inflation report came in hot and the market dropped, everyone would be like dude, why didn't you sell more That was crazy that you swung that much it like this. this mindset of always always continually just thinking of like well if I just played it bigger and perfectly I'd have more money.

Well yeah, no, we would all have more money if we all played it bigger and played it perfectly. It's just that's not really this game. This is a game of high variance and um, I'm I'm actually any legitimate Trader like a true professional would have would tell you that I took on too much risk and then even then I like I downsize. Even with the downsize, it was technically too much risk.

Okay, we are 42 seconds out I'm nervous I'm nervous here I have 290. It closed at 97. uh, the account is 38.7 k and we are opening in two. One uh, jump to 65k.

a jump right up to 65k. Currently trading at 226 227 230. Uh, so pretty solid freaking jump. Obviously my Open P L is 26 27k.

if I kept my full position, obviously that means I'd be up over 50k. But I'm not going to complain. that's still 145 percent gain getting my account back to where it was before I made those really really stupid trades earlier this week. All right, Tesla is moving A little bit of profit taking at the open kind of expected, but let's see how it all really goes.

Let's see how it all really goes. Come on, 441. Is that 441 20 right now? Q's getting smack that open Apple getting smack that open. but Tesla actually looking good at open? All right.

All right. All right. All right, let's see how this goes. Come on, come on.

be a fake out. be a fake out. Let's just these are the paper handed profit takers. Honestly, which I don't blame.

it's just I try to I really try to wait till 9 45. Don't forget that at 9 45 today, we get the Chicago business barometer reading: Uh, there we go. There's some enthusiasm that I like to see. There's some enthusiasm.

There's some enthusiasm. Okay, I am watching for 4 42 as a little bit of resistance. Um, I would unload a bit there I would definitely take some profits there. So we opened at 441.

44 came all the way down to 441.10 pop back up made a new intraday high, but obviously we're not even two minutes into the day yet. Uh, the 10 s