's going on moon gang. This is your market wrap up with me matt for for thursday july 14th. And as what we've been seeing lately. We're continuing the trend of we have a lot to talk about because there's been a lot of crazy volatility.

So we'll be getting into the overall market. Some of the insane headlines. Some of the absolutely ridiculous comments from the fed which just if as soon as you hear it and understand what they're saying you're going to be frustrated. And then really the cherry on top are some of the comments that we got from gary gensler.

Today. So i want to get into all of that what it does mean what it doesn't mean for the overall market. We'll do a little bit of technicals and then make sure you're sticking around until the end because i got to talk about one of our favorites. Here in the community.

The pelosi's are at it again a little bit more of trading that's totally not insider trading. But it's a kind of insider training so i want to share the pelosi's most recent trades with all of you before we get into that if you enjoyed this type of content don't forget to hit the like button join up with the moon game by hitting the subscribe button and other than that let's get rockin. So it takes about four microseconds of google searches to find some ridiculous headlines of what's going on today here's what we were hit with on the 14th bank of america just slashed its year end s. P.

500 forecast to the lowest on wall street as it expects a recession this year to last through early 2023 oil. Dips below 100 to pre invasion. Levels. As recession.

Fears grip. Energy markets. Basically. They're.

Saying recession will prompt. Demand destruction. So. Demand.

Plummeting price. Coming down. And of course. Soaring inflation.

Has traders betting on the first 100 basis point rate hike. In decades. So there's a lot going on and it was all kind of recently prompted by the report. We got on wednesday.

The cpi report for those of you who maybe. Missed the update video were missing in. Real time it came in at. 91.

Percent they were expecting 88. Which is high it came in even higher. Which means inflation is hot hot hot and that is kind of pushing on this whole saga. This storyline about a recession and then from there.

We're also getting a renewed fear of lockdowns. Because of the newest variant of kovid. So there's a couple things that all really need to be considered. But to tie.

It together with we got the cpi report today. We got the ppi report. Surprise surprise it came in higher than. Expected was expecting.

08 came in at 11. So. That's not good that's the producer price index. And just so you know tomorrow.

There are retail sales 8. 30. An hour before the market opens. But this is really all tying to the next fomc meeting.

The federal open market committee. Meeting we will be getting the results at 2. Pm. On wednesday july 27th.

And this little chart here has been all over the place before the cpi call out report whatever you want to really call it this chance of a 75 bips rate increase was 90 and there was a 10 chance of 100 bips after the cpi report that pretty much flipped. It was 12 and 88. And as you can see now in real time. It's 58 and 41.

So there's a massive fluctuation back and forth and that all had to do with other things that played out today. Namely. We had comments from two different fed. Members let me give you the quick run through on that fed's waller.

Yesterday's inflation number was not a big surprise okay i'm with you so far i mean granted. I think the average person knew it. But the fed was telling us time and time again that we shouldn't be worrying in fact you called inflation transitory. So okay hang on let's give them benefit of the doubt fed's waller market pricing over 100 bips is getting ahead of themselves i'm going to revisit this.

But when he said it i mean you could directly see right when the market started to bounce. Today was when he said that and i think it's one of those things of everyone's song is time and time again not to worry. Particularly the fed. They said okay we're going to do interest rate.

Hikes 25. Bips. We're going to keep doing that we'll probably won't do 50 then they hit us with a 50 okay that was extreme. But 75.

We're totally not going to do that then we get hit with the 75 and they're like hey. That's rare and we're not going to be repeating. It and now we're saying well it's going to at least be a 75 is it going to be 100 every single time. A fed member tells us.

It's not gonna be that next thing has anyone noticed the pattern that it is exactly that next thing and if you're wondering why i'm even talking about the fed interest rate hikes. Whenever we do that that's very hawkish and it helps battle inflation basically through another form of demand destruction. But it pushes down on stocks. It is downward pressure that's why you got to talk about it because we have the same don't fight.

The fed because if the fed decides to be very tight in their monetary policy. That drive stocks down this is exactly why we are getting into it and that's exactly why this matters is it going to be 75 bips or is it going to be 100. Neither are necessarily bullish for stocks. But it's how bearish how hawkish is the fed going to be but really to wrap it up.

I mean fed's waller. We didn't handle things right at the fed from a risk management point of view all right so you didn't handle things right you haven't been getting any of your predictions right it seems like you're completely botching. The job. But you're not surprised and people are overestimating when they're calling out 100 bips.

But you admit that you're kind of sucking at your job. I don't know all seems very very contradictory to me and then i really like this one too so another fed member bullard. I suppose. It's possible for the funds rate to exceed four percent by the end of the year data continue to come in in an adverse way.

So three three five that's already a pretty high number in total because these right here were slowly getting higher. And higher so this would call for a. 25. 275.

So he's saying maybe by the end of the year. We all the week get up to four well we don't have that many more rate hike meetings left for this year. We're skipping august. We have one in july september.

We're skipping august and there's a couple more but they're gonna have to be pretty aggressive to get up to four percent and it's the personal frustration. I have and i'm sure many of you feel this if time and time again. We are always told. The thing.

That's about to happen. There's no chance of it happening totally everything's fine. We're not gonna have inflation okay we have inflation. But it's not going to be that bad okay we have bad inflation.

But it's not going to be a recession okay. It's going to be a recession. But it's probably not going to be a bad recession. They keep we get there and then they just keep moving the goal line.

So either they suck at their job and they don't know what they're talking about or they refuse to be completely. Transparent and open with the general public and then that brings me to a point. I'm just thinking about right now pal he's like oh no the public totally trusts. Us he.

Said that he said generically in a general sense that the us population does trust the fight. I mean i'll leave that to you let me know in a comment below do you trust the fed yes or no let me know because i have a feeling. It's going to be no. But powell says no people they totally trust us.

Which leads me to hilarious comments from our boy. Gary gensler at the sec today investors need to know somebody is not lying to them. Now. This is not really in reference to the equities market.

It's actually in reference to celsius. Which is the crypto bank that is totally not a bank at least if you listen to them it's pretty much a bank anyway they're going the way of voyager and they just filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. What that means for you if you were in celsius is you're gonna just be tied up same way as like i'm personally in voyager you have to wait for the bankruptcy proceedings to and the reconstruction of the company to play out so basically you can't do anything right now you have to sit on your hands. And just wait and wait and wait there's unfortunately nothing that you can do but i just found it a little bit ironic of the actual headline from gary gensler.

Now granted this is once again in reference to celsius. But overall somebody's not lying to them. I think. This is going to cause retail to just scream to the high heavens like dude.

What are you talking about gary. This is your job fix it for us kind of crazy now there are some before we get into technicals of the market. There are some other important things we've been talking about the overall market. But right now we are starting with earnings season early this morning.

Jp morgan and morgan stanley. A lot of financial reports. Those are the two big ones that came out this morning not good they both missed they're both down tomorrow wells fargo city blackrock pnc bny melbourne. We get more financial reports we're gonna find out how they did in their last quarter.

It's their earnings report and this is earning season for the next two to three weeks. We're gonna have a lot of earnings to talk about but usually financials really get us going and just so you know for blackrock. I'm not expecting it to be good because they gave us this today blackrock is slowing down hiring for some roles at the firm with leadership citing economic uncertainty google. Just said that not too long ago snapchat and other tech companies said it this is something that is clearly permeating throughout.

Really companies in the s p. 500. Well known companies in the us of all slowing down stopping or reversing on their hiring hasn't getting rid of some people so please pay attention to it blackrock reporting before the market opens tomorrow. A lot of financials and then this will be continuing.

So basically we have a lot of financial reports next week in terms of their earnings announcements. The week after that we get the gdp numbers. We also have that fed meeting so from now until the end of the july. The volatility is not going to subside.

It's going to get bigger and bigger and bigger and in times. Like this you might be thinking. Hey. Is there some sort of idea.

I could have or some sort of indicator or is there something going on where i could get a little bit of a better idea of how things are going to play out unfortunately. That's tough to come by. But you know one person one family who always seems to do very well you got it right. I'm talking about the pelosi's nancy.

Pelosi's husband just invested millions into nvidia. And sold large amounts of visa and apple stocks. And call options now this is just one of the most infuriating things i know and i'm saying that in a video. Where we're just talking about gensler who just said we want to know that no one's lying to us.

We already know that but more infuriating is our politicians who time and time again are totally not using insider. Privileged information to line their own pockets. Why would they ever do that well whatever side you care about in this particular fight. I want to give you the details.

Paul pelosi. Recent survivor of his own dui. Apparently. Exercised 200.

Call. Options or 20. 000. Shares.

Of a video. Worth between 1. Million. And.

5 million. Paul pelosi also sold 10 000. Shares of visa worth between 1 million. And 5 million and sold 50 call options in apple valued between 100 000.

And 250 000. So even if we took the bottom number of all these we are talking about 21. Million dollars of the spouse of the speaker of the house. But hey don't worry there's nothing to see there as pelosi said herself we are free market economy.

They should be able to participate in that now obviously. She's flipped. Quite a bit because she realized it hurt her. Poll numbers and she wants to get reelected to once again just continue to get the bucks from the government.

But this is where we're at and of course. They're gonna do this thing. Where hey we looked into it it's okay trust us. We're policing each other nothing to see here of course they're gonna pull that but i think the average person is like we know how screwed up politics is being so i just want to share maybe you have a particular idea about nvidia visa apple maybe you're invested in them maybe you aren't but i just wanted to share.

What the pelosi's are up to even though they totally have our interest in their heart. Now to wrap this all up. I just wanted to quickly talk about the market kind of a strange day once again we gap down and then throughout the day especially. Because of the fed comments about oh.

We're not doing 100 bips it got it to pop. I think it's fake in the short term. I'm still bearish on the s p 500. I will not switch bullish until we close above the previous day's high in the short term.

I'm looking at the daily chart. But right now inflation is awful the situation with russia. Ukraine and the energy situation really in europe not good. We're seeing some signs of the real estate market coming back down after being super hot hot hot.

There's various things that line up that i just don't buy it and today once again. What we got similar to yesterday. The market gapped down. And then the dollar was very strong and then the dollar cratered and the market popped wash rents repeat.

That's what happened today. The dollar was very strong it cratered and the market popped now. There's reasoning for this and today's reason is pretty much the fed. But if i look at the cpi report and if i look at the earnings announcements.

We already had delta jp and morgan stanley. They're not good and then certain signs like blackrock saying. Hey we're slowing down on hiring. I think the message is there maybe i'm just reading tea leaves and maybe i'm reading it wrong.

But i strongly believe we have not seen the overall low the actual low in the overall market the s p 500. Yet this year. I do believe we're going lower the golden question is when is that going to happen. I wish i could tell you i just don't have a crystal ball.

So if you know when we're going to hit the low of the year please reach out to me i would love to share it with the community. But that's my positioning. Still i do have spx puts for july 22nd. So i'm giving myself a little bit over a week.

I will not switch bullish in the short term until we close above the previous day's high and who knows that might happen tomorrow. But i'm very much watching this level of 375 maybe. The gap bill of 369 maybe the breakout of 379. There's various things i'll be paying attention to but i'm just doing my best to ride the trend speaking of riding the trend amc.

I just wanted to point out even the market's been a little bit shaky a little red little green little red amc has been holding that 15 level very very nicely and in terms of gme. We almost got a major breakout. Today look it it came perfectly up to that 152 level. I've been telling everyone about and unfortunately it got smacked hard.

But that's what happens when you come up to resistances you're risking the chance of getting smacked. That's exactly why you shouldn't be buying at resistance. But overall. I do want to put on your radar.

Don't forget gme they are doing a four for one stock split through a dividend you need to be part of the stock split you need to own gme. When the market closes on july 18th and then that stock the new stock will show up in your account as we start trading on july 22nd. So you gotta own it by market close on the 18th you get the stock on the 22nd and obviously because it's a stock split. We're going to be trading at basically a fourth of the price anyway.

That's what i have for you be prepared for volatility something serious is coming. And it's most likely coming soon. So i hope you were absolutely prepared. If you have any questions ask them in a comment below and i'll definitely get back to you other than that i appreciate all of the happy birthday wishes today thank you thank you thank you i hope you enjoyed the video and i'll catch you in the next one.