Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah oh brother, oh brother, old brother and old sister. What's up Nerds, We're back at it again. D Gen Life here to I Suppose listen to the biggest D Gen of them all I am talking about Jerome Pal: the the daddy of the money printer. The guy who makes the money printer go Purr! The guy who treats the money printer a as if it were a kitten because that thing is going Pur Pur Pur Pur Purr We're about to find out I'm excited! we have about 12 minutes until we get the result of the Fomc meeting Where they're all like and we have decided to allow the FED fund rate to remain unchanged.

That's going to be the result. There's a 98% chance of it, 99% chance of it. So I'm not one playing the small odd scenario. I Don't think the rate change is going to happen.

There is going to be no rate change and I think all of you are pretty much um, on board with that particular call out. So what is going to move the market is Jerome Pal speaking at 230. Well, the Market's going to move like most likely in a haywi scenario from 2 to 230. But really, what's going to M like matter is 230 onwards and Jerome will probably be speaking from about 2:30 to 3:30 and at that point we might as well just watch it and hang out together until the end of the market.

So that's what I plan on doing. Uh, that's what. I I Look pale, You Look pale. How about that? How? How about that? You guys like that? Huh? You like how that feels? You call me pale.

How about you look pale jerk? You're you're a pale bag of mayonnaise. H You look like a ghost. How do you like that? You? you look like a Go You: You're a ghost. You're so pale.

There's when people hold when you hold up a bag of mayonnaise. No one can even tell you're holding it up like what are you doing with your arms because you're the same color. How do you like that? How's that feel? If if you if if you were covered in mayonnaise, you'd look the exact same as you do now cuz your skin is as white as mayonnaise. Loser nerd nerd.

Anyway, why is it in a bag? What else would you be putting your mayonnaise in? What? What else? How else would you be transporting your your Mayo across International lines? Um folks, we just need to wait. We need to wait. We need to wait. We need to.

I Don't think we should start fighting right now. We could save all of our fighting for later. Uh I think we should maybe just throw out our best guesses for like what's going to be happening pretty soon because we should be finding out. Very.

let me ooh what happened on the market today. Dude. Uh, we got that downside. Gap fill.

So I guess the people who were attempting to play that are kind of stoked didn't happen on the cues. A little bit of a bummer if you try to play that. uh the Spy strong push from 10 10 to about 11 and then it got absolutely merked. Got it? It got got it, got got without it getting its got if you know what I mean if like if you're picking up if you're picking up what I'm laying down I think I think you know what's going on here but it it got got it.

Oh oh it got got it got got but before it get it's got I hope you got your God if you know what I mean anyway spy and that's exactly what happened in the options Market Throughout the day as you can see, it had a nice Peak here around 10:46 and then it vomited all the way to about 115 and ever since then kind of going sideways maybe up ticking a little bit a little baby amount but it doesn't really matter. What matters is not only the announcement at 2 p.m. but more so what's going down at 230, 230, 230, 230? um I was watching Netflix cuz it looked pretty strong I was also watching Nvidia because it also looked pretty strong. but Netflix apparently the bell of the ball today I Guess the world is liking that they're going to be releasing their data um per show per movie.

Uh so that could be a little bit interesting as of right now. I'm I'm a nervous Nelly I'm going to be honest with you. I have some neutral to bullish leaning positions and that's not so good when you see the five minute cloud in the red. Not so good when you see the 10-minute cloud in the red.

Not so Bueno when you see that we're Flirting With Disaster on the 30 minute chart I Felt confident about it this morning when this was green. this was much more green. This made me feel better about my life. but not right now.

No way. Jose So your boy is looking honestly even if we end at this value, if the market closes and the S&P 500 futures contract is trading at 4700, I'll take it I'll take it I'll take it I'll take it. um I just it's it's getting close to some of my danger levels if you will, so we're going to see how it plays out. you know I I Believed in the wheel for the day cuz the wheel said it's going to be a Green Day and the wheels never been wrong before.

So I was thinking to myself well like why would it start being wrong today because it's obviously a super magical entity so like I don't think it'll ever be wrong but maybe I executed the trade wrong I don't know All I can tell you is the Spy had a good morning, then it got crushed. Got the downside Gap Fill The Q's almost got their downside Gap fill. It was real close to the tune of 5 away and then it started to po pop I I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't I don't know I I Think that should be the new name of the show instead of the MK show instead of the Matt core show, it should be the I don't know show because that's what you should always be saying to yourself when it comes to the market. Whenever you ask yourself, is it going up? Is it going down the God's honest truth is you don't know I don't know, you don't know.

We don't know, No one knows. it's a guessing game Bitcoin above 42,000 eth above 2200 Salana almost at 68. so we're seeing some positivity there SPX clearly holding above 4600. we're at 4646.

The Es contract is at 47,000 Uh, Nnq is at 16600. Uh, crazy stuff am I drunk trading? No. I don't think it's smart to ever be trading if you are not as sober as a bird. I Mean this is hard enough? Uh, you don't want to be making yourself not top tip, top tip shape I'm just jacked up volatility dude I just Market Volatility is coursing through these veins right now and I'm just ready I'm ready for the show I'm ready for the big show.

This is what we've trained all year for. We've trained all. this is our Super Bowl right here. our Super Bowl starts in six minutes.

We trained all year for this moment and yet all you guys are focusing on is how pale and white I am sorry sorry there's not much sun SLU Uv/ whatever brings out your melanin in New York City in December you guys are acting as if this is like my fault. like I built the system of like how this works I didn't design the biology I didn't pick how close we are or aren't to the sun I didn't pick the Earth's Tilt axis I didn't design the solstice. There's a lot of things going down on a biological front and on a Galaxy front. A solar system front that you're trying to leave at my doorstep.

but don't put it at my doorstep I didn't do it. You're barking up the wrong tree here I'm just I'm playing with the cards that I was dealt. but whatever I have poor melanin retention. The sun's not that strong am I wearing a Dgen shirt with a Mr Rogers switter.

Yeah, cuz it's comfortable. And when I was filming other videos in between the morning show in this show I got a little cold. your boy caught a little bit of a chill I had some geese bumps on my skin I was like, you know what? Throw it on. Maybe it's not the strongest fashion statement you've ever made, but the fact that you guys the fact that you're coming at me like this.

crazy after all I've done for you going to your daughter's Kinera and you treat me like this being the makeshift Dj/ up close magician at your dog Skera and this is how you treat me. Crazy Geese bumps of course it's geese bump if you had a goosebump that makes no sense. Geese plural I had more than one. Well, whatever.

thank you Chris Nice spray tan spray on 10 I Appreciate that. thanks. Whatever. Do you guys notice that I put all my Christmas lights on my little astronaut there? No one appreciates the little things that I do for you guys.

For example: I put lights on my astronaut I made fun of the AMC influencers who are still telling you to buy AMC even though it hit an alltime low uh I give you fashion advice like wearing a Dgen shirt with a Mr Roger sweater All the things I do for you and no one. No one says thanks Matt no one ever says thanks Matt uh Miss have taken it did take hours thank you I App I appreciate someone recognizing. um, did your vagina get cold? What? so oddly offensive I Love it Hey Matt first time chatter what's your credits music call? thanks and I appreciate you I don't know. Ask my producer his name's Chaos at Chaos.

He picked it Oh brother I actually messaged you privately on Discord thank you last night. Oh well, that's very kind of you. Uh, that is actually very very kind. Very very thoughtful.

Well before the results come out at 2 p.m. which is in 2 minutes I Need you guys to vote bullish or bearish? How do you think we go from to like from here? the Spy is at 4 64.6 Do you think we will end the day above that or below that right answers only. don't you even dare put in the wrong answer I want the right answer? Only the Spies at 46460 46460 But honestly, if it comes down to the world of math and being above or below, we probably should talk to that actor Teren whatever his name is because it sounds like we all need to learn new math. Um, so that'll be.

that'll be something. What we should probably do is prep up a little bit for this. Uh, Nick Timos Nick Timos? Where is Nick Timos from? The Wall Street Journal Nick Tim Timos free Evan Now, oh, is that the Wall Street Journal author who's still in, uh, a Russian prison Anyway, Nick Timos Chief Economics Correspondent The Wall Street Journal He very rapidly posts the difference between like the last meeting and like the what they write because they only change a couple words here and there. Um, so we have his page open I have this already rocking? Uh, get ready folks! Get Ready Get Ready Get Ready Oh brother.

Oh I'm nervous I'm sweating I'm sweating out of every orice. Bitcoin is no good. Hey, how about you shut your mouth. How about you shut your mouth when I'm talking to you? It is a big deal is it is a big deal.

Do you guys want to watch the 10 second chart? Maybe Maybe the one. Do you guys want to watch the one second chart? Maybe feel something? Maybe feel something you haven't felt since that college trip to Cabo Maybe. folks, we're staying at 5.25 Get ready. Where are we going up down sideways? Where are we going? Get ready.

Get ready. 40 seconds God I'm amped up oh I Want to feel solar I Can't I could go do a tick chart I Don't think they have a tick chart though. No, it's just all time based. But here's your one second chart.

y Hooligans I Never voted for Nixon me either. Dude I wasn't alive. 10 seconds. every everyone get jacked up, you're already jacked up I Know you are.

Let's go. Where are we going? I'm nervous brother. let's go. let's go.

Oh bullish push to the upside: this Rocket's taken off. Oh brother. Uhoh are we going the other way? Woo buddy! 5 and a qu to 5 a half% A unanimous decision in the December meeting. def has growth has slowed from the strong third quarter Pace Saying inflation has Eed over the past year but remains elevated is the first time they said anything positive about inflation uh for a very long time in the statement and they backed off somewhat.

Their bias to height was now deter the of any additional policy comment just screaming yeah Budd into a microphone while crushing water loose sparkling water naturally with other natural flavors Half a point down. Forecasting on average for a Fed official 80 Cuts Next year it had forast 50 basis points from a higher level. they my ass and call me we are getting rate hike this year that's gone. They lowered their inflation outlook for this year 3 from 37 for core PC that's down by 50 basis points.

They hit their 2% inflation Target now, maybe a little bit earlier, sort of towards 2025 or the end of 2025 and they see below Trend growth of 1.4% next year a tenth less than the September forecast unemployment rate seen at 4.1 next year about 4/10 higher than the September forecast and repeat the statement, the job gains have moderated but remain strong. Now there's something in the Uh dot pot that I think is worth pointing out out. While that median did come down from 51 to 46, there are five fed officials who are below that 46 number who see a full 100 basis points of rate. Hopefully the first move isn't the wrong.

Even more, we're up about two Buckaroo If you remember the September forecast there had been at least one official who was above 6% that's gone the top of the Dot Plot for next is now 540. So Reserve Today took a step towards the Market Reminds me of the first time I watched Transformers with Megan Fox back when I was a we little lad. definitely backing off plans to hike additionally or making certain out plans to hike and also forecasting more in the way you look extremely pale with those shiny goggles you Tyler and we are seeing Steve About the clearest Market reaction we've seen to a meeting in some time with stocks shooting higher Downs up about 150 points right now and the 10year yield just sank. Oh gosh, at Le almost basis points 13, you can see 4.07 is the intraday.

On that note, let's get over to Rick Santelli for some reaction here. Rick Yes, 415 is where we were right before the number came out. we're at 406 407. Obviously we've been down, uh, rather aggressively.

The drop two-year note yields getting down to a 453 level. they were around 467. so about 13 14 basis point drop. Uh I Think what is noteworthy here is is if you look at the PPI in particular today, there's very little doubt that we see showing and the new game in town is to of course look at the current monthly R If you had a bullish position, congratulations to you CU you just crushed the right.

You had a bearish. How many of you had a bearish position? Are you like crying right now? You can play with this dat and get close to the oh brother and sister. If you had a bearish position, you're probably punching the air right now between the market 80 basis points points, whatever. easing many see and it is an election year and it certainly seems to be baked in the cake.

The problem is is that as we look forward through the windshield with these annualized very specific inflation metrics, the real issue for Main Street America is the windshield looks optimistic because all the's embedded in the rear view mirror, we have comped and solidified many of the price. Inre forward that rate of increase might move to zero and AF Infation has think of things like The Writers Guild strike the Auto Workers up 25% over four years Vegas Casino workers first year 11.3% increase airline pilot4 to 40% increase. Uh, if we look at what's going on, expectation The Dot Plot Expectation for 2024 Two cuts, three cuts. The reason obviously are in the Mir as well.

They have set up footing of pricing. We're still in hawkish territory, but we're trending. This is legitimately bullish for the market. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but there's going to be ongoing pressure others to continue to boost pay and I think that cycle isn't going to be going too excited.

even though the FED will have the ability to lower R in the future, look at that. Bob bani. What would you add as we at the Dow up6 now I think Fed Steve's right, the FED has moved towards the market and that's certainly very good news because uh, the pain trade was down. Remember the last Fed meeting? It's moved on expectations that pal would acknowledge inflation and the effects of lower inflation s starts out D would come down and they would acknowledgement that progress on inflation.

Look what we've got here. We have a Fed statement talking about slowing economic activity slowing from being strong. uh in determining the extent of any additional policy. uh, firming? that's a very strong nod.

uh uh to the does that the PC estimates coming down as well. This is about as doish as you could have possibly expected from anybody. The real concern right now for the markets is just how far it's come. The stock market is overbought on exactly these expectations.

The FED is delivering what the market thinks. The worry now the concern for the markets is that the inflation data does not come in line with the expectations in the next couple of months. Right now, though, it's about as Goldilocks as it gets. Bob Bazani Thanks very much Kristen I Want to come back to you because as you were speaking there before, uh, the meeting, I found myself thinking well what you're saying sort of sounded to me like the market was was expecting more than the FED has indicated it is likely to do.

But as Steve pointed out, now, it looks like the Fed has come closer to what the market has been expecting. That's exactly what I heard as well. So you know the question going into this was was the FED going to meet the market or was the market going to meet the Fed And it looks like the FED has kind of bridged that Gap in terms of meeting the market. At least you know three quarters of the way in terms of what was priced based on the Dot Plot I Think that you know some of the things that we're going to look for within the press conference.

So obviously these comments about inflation and the first, not to inflation coming down and recognizing that we've seen that in the data, we know some of the lagging components. you know, when you take out shelter. um, we're actually at that 2% Target in CPI and so a lot of people are looking through to that underlying data. So the fact that the FED has acknowledged that I think the interesting thing that we have to look for within the press conference though, is given the comment that was just made about how far the market has come.

Is chair pal going to give any commentary about the loosening of financial conditions just given the market rally and also the movement that we've seen in rates as well. Which then kind of brings us full circle in terms of really the timing of this first cut next year. Uh, John let me turn to you, because uh, it appears that in the in their forecast for the economy next year, the FED Governors as a group are, um, coming to where you are. that is a slowing economy 1.4% which is a lot lower than it's been this year.

Yeah, and I think that's especially true on the inflation side where it sounds like they did downgrade their core. PC Forecast: You know I think it's I think it's mostly about inflation here. I Think that the you know tightening or loosening of financial conditions may or may not be appropriate. but as long as inflation is lower, you know that's what the Fed's going to respond to.

The Fed's a bunch of economists. They have an inflation mandate, they're focused on inflation, the news on inflation's been good, and I think they're reflecting that here. never, that's over time. So I think it's right, focus on today, and I think that's going be the takeway.

Improvements on inflation are significant, they're being reflected in the meeting today, and they will continue to be reflected. You know, should they continue through lower rates St across the border up about half a percent the 10e note around 410 and and I think uh, someone made the point earlier Steve Lean that you know falling rates and and these kinds of things help ease Financial conditions whereas previously Rising rates were tightening them. My question to you is going to be now that the FED has moved to where the market is. Does the market just keep moving further into pricing in yet more Uh rate Cuts or more loosening or more easing of fin fun Yeah, this is like a legitimate breakout.

This is legitimately bullish. Talk about that. Here's Cong if you got it Market mov to Fed moved to the market I put in my profit, take orders on all the premium that I sold I'm basically hoping to catch it right zero just in case pal wants to mess 40% probability for a cut so legitimately bullish that do this. the January 2025 contct which sees um 4.05 135 B the told us what would be going down some we may be back to where we were again.

Where okay, the FED is taking a move toward the Market's taking a move uh fed Tak move towards the market and now the FED may have to reain expectations back in again we're going to have to watch the data. The inflation data John is right is what's going to determine what happens here. There are good reasons to expect it to come in to come in, but the data actually needs to perform for the FED to do what the market wants it to do. David Kelly your thoughts? Well, we waited all year for the FED to Pivot and finally as a Christmas president they give us a pivot.

Uh, but I I Would you know I Do believe the inflation numbers are going to be good? David Kelly I Am a little worried that the most dangerous time for the economy is when a tight fed begins to ease because you know those those rate Cuts aren't just sending a message to the market, they're sending a message to the economy and a lot of people. You think there's going to be much lower rates at the end of next year. You really want to borrow money Now you want to wait a while and I hate it when everybody decides to wait a while. That's very bad for the economy.

So good news today. I Think for the for both the bond market and stock market. but I'm just a little bit more cautious on growth now the FED is finally pivoted to to. That's an interesting point that that it could have a kind of inverse effect in other words when you cut rates that's supposed to stimulate the economy.

but when you cut rates you may be causing people to put on hold their their borrowing activity. They might literally what happens First time you're hearing that are company might wait because they figure they can get aice on bonds or better better interest rate on bonds. Uh, a year from now than they do today? David Yeah, exactly. Raising rates from very low rates doesn't actually slow the economy as we've seen many times.

and cutting rates from very high levels doesn't actually stimulate the economy. so I think the economy looks okay right now, but I'm a little bit more nervous about it I feel confident inflation is coming down. but I do see that slow down in growth and I'm I'm just a little bit more concerned it could become more Extreme as the year goes on and I think that maybe why the Market's pricing in uh, more aggressive rate Cuts next year B Pazani, you know uh Sarah Was speaking with Janet Yellen this morning and Yellen made a very um, I think strong case for the soft Landing I think she made very compelling arguments saying one of the reasons that I'm getting into the soft Landing Camp She Said is because in the past inflation expectations were not well anchored like in the 1970s, well were well anchor. There were expectations that inflation was going to be higher for much much longer and she made a case saying that is not what is happening here and that is one of the reasons we don't feel the need that there's going to have to be suddenly high unemployment.

She made a case for the soft landing on the idea that inflation expectation from higher. For if anyone knows about soft lands, it's definitely definitely commentary from an expert on the subject matter. knows all about landing on the soft. Uh, that's a quite a drop 0.5% from prior expectations.

So the Federal Reserve obviously has some expectations as well that that in inflation is not going to be some kind of permanent part of the landscape. So the Yellen I'm sure is quite happy with what she sees here from them. Rick Santelli If you were going to give a grade to the Fed and it and its statement here, what would it be, give it to him Rick I think so far I would probably give it a B minus or a C+ the problem I see is X now many of the guests saying X shelter. So basically X inflation.

we have very little inflation. uh I think that when you consider, consider the IDE average C the rate that we pay to service. We jump at about that same time period that I think this is the big end of the world party that the Fed's raising rate cycle is over I Don't have a problem with that. but the think that the market rates, especially in the long end, don't have a possibility to be moving up after we get through the election next year and have to reckon with some of the big issues we have on servicing the debt in the budget.

Believe me, we should enjoy the fact that we're putting some cushion in markets like the equities because there's going to be some tougher sledding in about three quars from today. Yeah, spitting facts. I Guess that leaves us with the question and I'll direct it to you. Uh, what are you going to hope to hear or not hear from the Fed chair top? He's he is the top.

He's the I Think we just have to bring all of this together in terms of remembering that while he did give a nod in the statement to inflation, he also pointed to the the strong labor market as well. And so we have to look at these two things. and I'm going to bring this all back to the fact that yes, the inflation data is going in the right direction. Direction But there is the potential for the market to get a little bit ahead of itself in terms of when we anticipate seeing those.

Most of what what we've heard today is this idea that we're not expecting that a soft Landing is possible. We're not anticipating a recession, but we are expecting a slowing of growth and so that's going to ultimately show up in the data and particularly in in employment. And that would be the signal to the FED to ultimately start cutting rates. So I'm look to those sign in terms of that balance between their dual Mandate of yes, inflation is going in the right direction.

but let's talk about the labor market as well, which should give us more signals as to what we should be pricing in for next year. All right. Kristen Thank you very much and thanks to our entire panel. John David Uh, Steve Rick Bob Everybody uh and we will be watching throughout the rest of the afternoon to see what the Fed chair says.

We'll obviously see Steve in the room. we're just minutes away from Jerome Pal's press conference. We will take you there as I mentioned as soon as it happens and C Ban will be in the front row. But first we will get more reaction.

Why did he emphasize that break? So we'll be right you. How much of an Econ nerd you have to be to be jacked up about being in the front row of a Fed conference? That's just crazy. That is just crazy. Um what? Yep, there's a new investor and he said and he said you the best Jesus Where are we at? Where are we at? Dude, look at those options, look at damn option.

Boom Bada bing bada Bo Folks, you just saw a rocket ship. You just saw an absolute rocket ship. All right. So here's what you need to know.

The Fomc result was, as expected. The commentary around their decision was very doish. This, well, very doish. Relative to the recent crap, we've heard that in the current phase of inflation, the economy monetary policy is very bullish.

As of this isn't always true, but as of now, dovish commentary and updates and results have been very bullish for the market and this caused the spy and the Cu's and Bitcoin and bonds to go. Haywire The dollar is getting crushed, yields getting crushed, and hopefully your bank account is just rippity skippity doodah to the upside. Now is the party over No In fact, don't you don't. Don't you do it.

I See you thinking you should exit out of this screen? Don't you do it. Get your finger off the goddamn Mouse Don't you click on it Because we're not done folks. In 12 minutes, the Dictator of the Central Bank Mr Jerome Pal is going to be speaking. He's going to be doing a press Conf conference and if there's one thing that Jerome is known for, it's for giving us the Kansas City Shuffle Sometimes we're feeling good and he crushes our hearts, other times we're feeling like crap and he lifts us back up.

So the Dictator of the Money Printer will be speaking in 11 minutes 12 minutes. So you I swear if you click off of this show right now I will find you and it's not going to be pretty. It is unless you think you can handle a 5 fo10 scrawny s kid who's never learned how to fight. Unless unless you think you can handle that package.

Unless you think you can. If, Unless you unless you.com Unless you think you can handle this knuckle sandwich, you're not going to want to click off. Got is really jacked up. dude.

this Mark is high. All right. Well I Don't need to listen to them anymore. What's Bloomberg saying about it? Whoa SEC Chair Gary G speaks to Bloomberg TV What's he talking about? What's he taking? See you I'm a start my own show.

Please don't Chris I Need you% Consumption: Do you buy this idea of the massive potential? GDP Slowdown: over the next two years, sub 2% real GDP Inflation that's quiescent nominal GDP that's 4% It's quient. What? the does that use words we all learn on balance? Yes, um so the our BFA uh card data has been showing resiliency in consumer spending going out of their way to be as boring as they possibly can. Is the slow down if we get one is going to come ofer us, the fiscal drag and so forth. Uh, so we think it's possible.

Money fun again. What? dude? Money is the coolest in the world. Do you know what you could do with money? You could buy drugs, you could buy alcohol, you can travel, You could go to water parks, you can buy sandwiches. You could do so much with money.

And money's dope. Money's sick. The more money you have, it is awesome. Don't listen to any of those who tell you.

oh more money, More problem. No money is awesome. It's one of the coolest things ever. And yet we have all this mainstream media who makes it so boring, so boring.

How how how can you take something so cool and fun and interesting? and they make it sound so boring? like just lighten up like is it a prerequisite to go on any of this? TV And like you have to have a stick up your ass I Just don't get it. Get someone up there and be like dude Market's ripping. We're partying. Who cares if the world's going to burn down next year, cuz this is is obviously now unsustainable.

Have fun. In the meantime, we're not here for a long time. We're here for a fun time and just they won't. Dude, they're boring.

Boring. boring boring dude. Have boring. Jim Kramer Boring.

Uh yeah, he's well. he's not as boring, but he's just wrong A lot. You got to be somewhat right. Or if you're not right, you're want to goes the other way.

Dude, look at this thing. Look at this thing. Look at this. Look at this thing.

It's just taking off. Where are my positions at I'm up almost a grand on the day on this? I'm up a grand if you count all the accounts. Dude: Easy. That's so.

that's what's so fun about money. It's just it's awesome. money of who doesn't want more money. Everyone who says that like I have enough money I Get paid enough? No, you shut up.

No, you don't you guys ever meet someone like that in life like I don't need more money I'm content. Shut up nerd. You've just accepted your situation. You aren't fine with it.

it's it's so boring when people say that I don't believe him I've never believed him I'm happy where I am in my life. Oh Oh Charles I'm happy where I am in my life. No, you shut up. Shut up losers.

You're not happy where you are in your life. Dude, you've just. you're trying to make yourself sound interesting and philosophical. Shut up.

Shut up. Shut up. Shut up. Yes! I Steal from them 4K more and you could buy all the Trump trading cards.

That should be my life goal is just trying to get all of them go Bu Someone who cares. They should be like oh that's so interesting. Go buy someone who cares. That's a good one.

All right folks. So we're we're part. We're part of the way through the party. the part's continuing.

We're at that awkward where you showed up a little bit too early and that hot girl that you were trying to talk to. she's not there yet even though she promised you you would be there and you can't just awkwardly leave cuz like someone already noticed you from geology class and they're like hey man, how's it been like you said you were going to text me and we'd get lunch and you're like oh so so sorry I've been so busy but like let's catch up now and like all of a sudden you're like now stuck in a corner talking with a person you want to talk with and just like waiting, you're waiting and waiting to see if Maria ever shows up cuz you told you she would be at the party and now you're in the Corner wondering if John's ever going to shut the up about minerals I don't know, you know that's what it kind of feels like. The point is, we're just waiting for the hot girl to show up at the party if that makes sense I feel like sometimes not everyone understands my metaphor so like maybe I should take a second to explain them at the end. Uh, we're just waiting.

we're we're just waiting. Uh, new, all-time high. What's the new all-time high? You can't just say new alltime high and not explain what what you're looking at. New alltime high in terms of friendship? No.

I If anything, I've lost friends uh P&l no I've still lost too much money on AMC um mental stability, psychological stability? No. Also, not that in fact. uh, dowo hit a new all-time high Yeah Dow sucks though. Who trades the Dow You know the Dow is like what our grandparents used to trade and think the overall Market the D is like we just want something exciting I Feel like that's what Wall Street doesn't understand anymore is we like to trade things that you know make a difference like you know, oddly specific.

it's just an example. Dude, it's not any anything to do with my real life sometimes I drive around in my car and yell new alltime high at strangers dude. So sick that you have a car I I've heard about those before. uh I thought Grandpa traded corn All the cool grandpas traded corn dude if I met I wish I I Want to trade corn Now see.

that's something that you could get behind cuz like whether you're winning or you're losing, you feel something. if if you trade the doubt I mean try it. Don't believe me? Try. Go Trade the doubt.

If you win or lose, you're not going to feel anything cuz it's just boring. You're going to be like bored to tears. That's what happens when you trade the Dow you trade something like corn. dude.

Doesn't matter if you're winning or losing, you're having a great time. Same thing with pork bellies. Uh, you're going to have a great time trading that orange juice. A phenomenal time trading that the Dow not so much.

you're just. you're going to be. You're going to be so bored. Try it.

you don't have to believe. believe me. I'm letting you know. but don't be surprised when you're so bored you just start crying and then you're going to come back in here and you're going to take your anger out on me and that's just going to be how it's going to be going to be.

How it's going to be. How crazy is it that this is the number one Finance show on Rumble and the number three Finance show on YouTube Like psychologically, that's not like. What does that say about Society That's not good. It's not a good thing.

it's not. Whatever it means is not a positive. It definitely means that you guys have a lot of problems. It also means that I have problems.

So there there's that. Yeah, we've all accepted we're living in the end of times. Well, um, at least we're going to be in like the Mad Maxes camp together. we'll be the D Gen trading Camp problems.

No I'm fine. No, I'm fine. Um, hang on I needed to find uh, the Federal Reserves YouTube channel. uh Federal 11,000 watching What? 11,000 Golly, you know what I could do is I could bring it up over here so we can watch the chart simultaneously I Know that's why you guys like Com in here just for my technical knowhow sometimes when my mom has a problem with her TV she calls me up and I'm like why don't you just try plugging in the HDMI cable and then it fixes it and she's like God so happy I have a son who's a Comsi engineer I was like that's what we That's what we studied at Comsi school is is how to plug and unplug HDMI cables.

That's that's what I got the degree for Ma Just a little bit of an insight into me. people helping people. uh add Source window Is it? This one did I do the right one I did. Okay, let's let's clean this up a little bit.

you guys can't hear but they have horrible elevator music playing. Let's clean this up a bit. All right, let's get pal. let's get pal up here.

We want pal. we want pal something like that that looks that looks good enough if you round up. uh uh am I stupid to short here hahaa um I mean we're all stupid on the inside. You know that's not going to you.

You going short, you going long, you trading, you, not trading. It's not going to change the fact that like deeply on the inside, we're all stupid like whatever. So if anything I think you should take that as it it's It's almost a bit of relief because it doesn't matter. what you do doesn't matter in the slightest.

Uh F AMC Dude AMC hit a new alltime low. Which what? I mean dude. the CEO is a credibly alleged pedophile. Like the court case says, yeah, no, he thought he was talking to an underage chick like he's a creep man.

he's like a Walmart version Harvey Weinstein Dude like he and people are like I think going down it's the best. It's the best business has ever been. that's what I imagine them talking like actually where was it uh, where was it profile What did I post? where was it? Where was it? Where was it right here and then someone says right here So I made fun of the AMC people and then they said how is he not though the business is stronger than ever, he doesn't control stock price obviously I just put AMC hit a new alltime low and then he said the business is stronger than ever um my interpretation, no one asks this but my oh, is he coming out My interpretation of anyone who would say that is kind of like, but the business is stronger than ever Like that's just like in my mind how I see them making that statement but but the business iser than ever. Can you guys hear it? Can Can I hear it? Can we hear it Afternoon, My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual M to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.

As we approach the end of the year, it's natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our dual mandate objectives. Inflation has eased from its highs and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That's very good news. Hell yeah, brother, But inflation is still too high.

Ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain as we look ahead to next year. I Want to assure the American people that we're fully committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal. Restoring price stability is essential to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy.

We've raised our policy interest rate by 5 and a qu percentage points and have continued to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk Pace. Our actions have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, and the full effects of our tightening likely have not yet been felt. Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings give how far we have come along with the uncertainties and risks that we. Face The committee is proceeding carefully.

We will make decisions about the extent of any additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving Outlook, and the balance of risks. I will have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the Thir how calls do you think he load into? Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2 and a half% for the year as a whole, bolstered by strong consumer demand as well as improving Supply conditions. After picking somewhat over the up somewhat over the summer, activity in the housing sector has flattened out and remains well below the levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates.

Higher interest rates also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. In our summary of Economic projections, committee, participants revised up their assessments of GDP growth this year, but expect growth to cool with the median projection falling to 1.4% Next year, the labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance. Over the past 3 months, payroll job gains averaged 204,000 jobs per month, a strong Pace that is nevertheless below that seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.7% Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers.

The labor force participation rate has moved up since last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years, and immigration has returned to pre-pandemic levels. This nominal wage growth appears to be easing and job vacancies have declined. Although the jobs to workers Gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers, Fomc participants expect the rebalancing in the labor market to continue easing upward pressures on inflation. The median unemployment rate projection in the SCP Rises somewhat from 3.8% at the end of this year to 4.1% at the end of next year.

Inflation has eased over the past last year, but remains above our longer run goal of 2% Based on the Consumer Price Index and other data, we estimate that total Pce Prices rose 2.6% over the 12 months ending in November and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PC Prices rose 3.1% The lower inflation readings over the past several months are welcome, but we will need to see further evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets. As is evident from the SCP, we anticipate that the process of getting inflation all the way to 2% will take some time. The median projection in the SCP is 2.8% this year Falls to 2.4% next year and reaches 2% in 2026.

The Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided. By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Look at that, we're highly, highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective. As I noted earlier since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by 5 and a quarter percentage points, and we have decreased our Securities Holdings by more than a trillion dollars.

Our restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. The committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 5 and A4 to 52% %, and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings. While while we believe that our policy rate is likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways. Since the Pandemic and ongoing progress sorry, ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured, we are prepared to tighten policy further.

if appropriate, we're committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is on a path to that objective. In our SCP Uh Fomc, participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the Federal Funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. While participants do not view it as likely to be appropriate to raise interest rates further, neither do they want to take the possibility off the table if the economy evolves. As projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026, still above the median longer term rate.

These projections are not a committee decision or plan. If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path of policy will adjust. Going through the details right now, this is so inability Goals: In light of the uncertainties and risks and how far we have come, the committee is proceeding carefully. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks.

in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% Over time, the committee will will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments. We remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.

Everything we do is in service to our public. Mission We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you I Look forward to your questions. Thank you Chris Rugaber at Uh Associated Press I Wanted to ask: how should we interpret the addition of the word any uh before additional firming in the statement I mean does that mean that you're pretty much done with and the committee has shifted away from a tightening bias and toward a more neutral stance.

Thank you so um, specifically on on any Um, We do say that in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate so any additional policy firming that sentence. So we added the word any as an acknowledgement that we believe that we are uh, likely at or near the Uh, the peak rate for this cycle. Um, participants didn't write down additional hikes that we believe are likely uh, so uh, that's what we wrote down. Um, but participants also uh, didn't want to take the possibility of further hikes off the table.

So that's really what we were thinking. M Chairman Um, oh, the microphone sorry Steve Lean CNBC Happy Holidays Mr Chairman Um Fed Governor Chris Waller Said that if inflation continues to fall, then the FED Uh in the next several months could be cutting interest rates I Wonder if you could comment on whether you agree with Uh Fed? Governor Waller on that that the FED would become more restrictive if it didn't cut rates of inflation fell? Thank you sir! So of course I I don't comment on Uh on any other officials, even those who who work at the FED. Um, so. but I but I'll I'll try to answer your your question more broadly.

Um, so the way the way we're looking at it is is really this, uh, when we when we started out right, we said uh, the first question is how fast to move and we moved very fast. The second question, uh, is um, you know, really, uh, how high to raise the policy rate And that's really the question that we're still on here. Uh, we're we're very focused on that as I as I mentioned. um, people generally think that we're at or near that.

uh and and think it's not likely that we will will hike although they don't take that possibility off the table. So that's when when you get to that question and that's your answer. Uh, there's a natural. Naturally, it begins to be the next question.

Which is when it will become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint that's in place. So that's really the next question. And that's what people are thinking about and and and talking about. And I I would just say this: Jesus We are seeing, uh, you know, strong growth that is that is appears to be moderating.

We're seeing a labor market that is coming back into balance by so many measures, and we're seeing inflation making real progress. These are the things we've been to see. We can't know. Uh, we still have a ways to go.

No one is declaring victory that would be premature and we can't be guaranteed of this progress. So we're We're moving carefully and making that assessment of whether we need to do more or not. Um, and uh, that that's really the question that we're on. But of course this the other question.

the question of when will it be become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint in place that that begins to come into view Uh and is clearly a discuss topic of discussion out in the world and and also a discussion for us. Uh at our meeting today. Can you give some as to the nature of that discussion today? Thank you. Sure.

So it it comes up in this way today. Um Everybody wrote down an SCP forecast. So many people mentioned what their what their rate forecast was uh and uh, there was no, was no back and forth, no attempt to sort of reach agreement like this is what I wrote down. this is what I think that kind of thing re uh, and preliminary kind of a discussion like that.

Not everybody did that, but many people did. And then and I would say there's a general expectation that this will be. this will be a topic for us. Looking ahead that that's really what happened in today's meeting.

I Can't do the headcount for you in real time, but that's generally what happened today. Rachel Hi Chair Powell Rachel Seagull from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions at this point. Can you confidently say that the economy has avoided a recession and isn't heading for one now? And if the answer is no I'm curious about what you'd still be looking for I I Think you can say that there's little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now. Um I would say that I Think there's There's always a probability that that there will be a recession in the next year and it's a meaningful Pro probability.

No matter what the economy is doing, so it's always a real POS possibility. The question is, is it so so it's a possibility here I Have always felt since the beginning uh, that there was a possibility because of the unusual situation that the economy could cool off. Uh, in a way that enabled inflation to come down without the kind of large job losses that have often been associated with high inflation and tightening. Cycles So far, that's what we're seeing.

That's what many forecasters on, on and off the committee are seeing. This result is not guaranteed it is. It is uh, far too early to declare Victory Um, and there are certainly risks. It's certainly possible that that, uh, that the economy will behave in an unexpected way.

It has done that repeatedly through the post in the post-pandemic period. Nonetheless, where we are is is we see the things that I that I mentioned. I'm curious if you're looking back on the past year you talked about navigating by the stars under Cloudy Skies Can you talk about some of the ways in which the economy surprised you most this year or you thought it would behave in one way and had to Pivot to respond thanks So I think Um forecasters generally if you go back a year, were very broadly forecasting a recession for this year for 2023 and not only did that not happen that includes Fed forecasters and really essentially all forecasters, a very high proportion of forecasters were expect very weak growth or a recession. Not only did that not happen, we actually had a very strong Year and that was a combination of of strong demand, but also real gains on the supply side.

So this was the year when labor force partic participation picked up, where immigration picked up, where the Um distortions to supply and demand from the pandemic you know, the shortages and and the bottlenecks Really began to unwind. So we had significant supply side gains with strong demand, and we got what looks like a 2 and a half% plus or a little more than that growth year at a time when potential growth this year might even have been higher than that just because of the the healing on the supply side. So that was a surprise to just about everybody. I Think the inflation forecast is roughly roughly what people wrote down a year ago, but in a very different setting.

and I would say the labor market because of the stronger growth has also been um significantly better. If you look back at the Sep from a year ago, there was a significant increase in in unemployment. It didn't really happen. We're still at 3.7% %.

So we've seen um, you know, strong growth. Uh, still a tight labor market, but one that's coming back into balance with the with support from the supply side, a greater supply of labor. It's A you know, that's that's what we see and that I think that combination was was not anticipated broadly. Howard Uh, thanks Howard Schneider With Uh Reuters and thanks for taking the questions I I Wonder if you could, uh, give a little more color detail on what motivates the lower rates next year? Um, whether it's a coincidence, for example, that the spread between Uh PC inflation core inflation and the Federal Funds rate stays constant over the year? Are you simply calibrating against the fall in the in prices in the price level? Uh, that you're the rate of inflation that you're expecting.

Uh, as opposed to supporting the economy. Not nothing quite that mechanical is happening. the SCP really is is a Bottoms Up built from the bottom up, right? So I Think people are looking at what's happening in the economy and I think if you look at the big difference from September in the SCP the expectations for inflation this year both headline and core have come down you know, really significantly in three months. That's a big piece of of this At the same time, Um, growth is turned out to be very strong in the third quarter is slowing we believe as as appropriate and we've got.

We've had several labor market reports which suggest again, significant progress toward greater balance across a very a broad range of indicators. You're seeing the so many of the indicators coming back to normal. not all of them, but so I think that people look at that and they write down their They basically each individual writes down a forecast and a rate forecast that goes with that forecast. We tabulate them and and publish it.

Uh, and so it's not it isn't You ask about um, real rates I Take it, you know that's that is. That is something that we're very conscious of and aware of. And and Monitor and it's certainly a big part of. It's a part of how we think about things.

but really, it's broader. Financial Conditions that matter. and and as you well know, it's It's so hard to know exactly. You know what the, what the real rate is, or exactly how tight policy is at any given time.

So you you couldn't follow that like it was a rule. And think that you would get the right answer all the time. But it's certainly Something That We're focused on and indeed, if you look at the projections I think the expectation would be that the real rate is declining as we as we move forward. It sounds like the discussion over that I could follow up has has already kind of begun.

I'm wondering U just related to to Steve's question how the how the tactics of this play out given the slowing of inflation and the fact that the deeper you get into 2024, the closer you get to a presidential election. Do you want to frontload this? In other words, yeah, no, we we're We don't think about political events, We don't think about politics. We think about what's the right thing to do for the economy. The minute we start thinking about those things, you know we just can't do that.

We have to think what's the right thing. We'll do the things that we think are right for the economy. At the time we when we think is the right time that that's what we'll always do. So I mentioned we're moving carefully.

One of the things we're moving carefully about is that decision over that assessment really over whether whether we've done enough really. Uh, and you see that people are not writing down rate hikes? That's that's us thinking that we have done enough but not not feeling that really strong confidently and not wanting to take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Nonetheless, it's not the B base case anymore, obviously as it was, you know, 690 days ago. So that's that's how we're That's how we're approaching things.

And and you know, as I mentioned, um, we wrote down this Sep and it talks about uh, it. people have individual assessments of when it will be appropriate to um, you know, to, uh, start to dial back on on the tight policy we have in place and that's a discussion we'll be having going forward. But uh, uh, that's another assessment that we're going to make very carefully. U So as time goes forward, Nick Timos of the Wall Street Journal Chair Poell.

You've argued over the last year that policy tiing started before you actually lifted off because the market anticipated your moves and tightened on your behalf. The market is now easing policy on your behalf by anticipating a funds rate by next. September That's a full point below the current level with cuts beginning around March. Is this something that you are broadly comfortable with? Um, so this this last year has been remarkable for the uh, the sort of seesaw thing back and forth we've had over the course of the year of markets moving away and moving back and that kind of thing.

So and and what I would just say is is that we we focus on what we have to do and how we need to use our tools to achieve our goals. And that's what we really focus on and people are going to have different forecasts about the economy and they're going to those are going to show up in market conditions or or they won't, you know? But in any case, we have to do what we think is right and you know in in the long run, it's important that Financial conditions become aligned or are aligned with what we're trying to accomplish and in in the long run they will be. Of course, because we will do what it takes to get to our goals and ultimately that will mean that Financial conditions will will come along. but in the meantime there can be back and forth And you know, I I'm just focused on what's the right thing for us to do and my colleagues are focused on that too.

The markets seem to think inflation is coming down credibly. Uh, do you believe we're at the point where inflation is coming down credibly? I Listen I I welcome the progress. I Think it's it's um, it's really good to see the progress that we're making. Uh, I think if you look at the 12mth me look at the six-month measures.

You see very low low numbers. If you look at 12 months measures, you're still well above 2% You're actually above 3% on core. um through through November at Pce. Um, that isn't to say I'm not.

You know. calling into question the progress, it's great. We just need to see more. we need to see you know.

Continued further further progress toward getting back to 2% That's that's what we need to see. So um, you know our it's our job to restore price stability and that it's one of our two jobs along with maximum employment and they're equal. So we're very focused on on, you know, doing that. As I mentioned, we're moving carefully at this point.

Um, we're pleased with the progress, but uh, but we see the need for for further progress and I think I I think it's it's fair to say uh, there is a lot of uncertainty about going forward. We've seen the economy move in surprising directions, so we're just going to need to see more for for the progressa. Gina Smik New York Times Thanks for taking our questions. Um, in the SCP from today, growth is notably below potential in 2024.

If growth were to surprise us again in the way that it has for years now by being stronger than expected next year, would it still be possible to cut rates or put another way is below Trend growth necessary to cut rates Or would continued progress on inflation alone be sufficient? So we'll we'll look at the totality of the data. Growth is one thing. um uh, so is inflation? So is labor market data. So we we look at the Tot as we as we make decisions about policy changes going forward.

We're look at all those things and particularly about the as they affect the Outlook. It's It's ultimately all about the Outlook and the balance of risks as well. So that's that's what we'd be looking for. Um, if we have stronger growth, you know that'll be good.

For people that'll be good for the labor market, it might actually mean that it takes a little longer to get inflation down to 2% We will get it down to 2% But um, you know if if we see stronger growth we we'll we will set policy according to what we actually see. And and so that's how I would answer. I Guess the Qu I Guess the question I'm asking if you don't mind a quick followup I Guess the question I'm asking is is above Trend Growth itself a problem. It's only a problem in, so it's not itself a problem.

it it's only in a problem in so far as it makes it more difficult for us to achieve our goals. Um, and if you know if you have, if you have growth that's robust, what that will mean is probably will keep the labor market very strong. It probably will will place some upward pressure on inflation. That could mean that it takes longer to get to 2% inflation.

That could mean we need to keep rates higher for longer. It could even mean ultimately that we would need to hike again. Um, it just is. It's the way the way our policy works good.

Neil Hi Chair Pal Neil Irwin With the axios, Um How Do you interpret the state of the labor