Foreign. Just leave me alone. Oh brother oh brother oh brother. Welcome back to the Mac Coors Live show where we're here to talk about everything going on in the world particularly stocks crypto, the economy, politics, breaking news, my fashion choices, my questionable yet pretty spot on fashion choices I might as I might add there Uh, good morning everyone I Hope you're crushing it today I Hope you got up.

You crushed the stair stepper. You got a healthy breakfast in you and you're ready to see what the market gives us today. And maybe there's a little bit of a sprinkling on top if you will. I hope your positions look as if they're massively up this morning, such as the way mine are with my Tesla puts if any of you also got in on those yesterday I was a little early I got in around 191 and ended up peaking at 192 and some change.

So for a little bit I was sweating but hey, uh, we're now almost at 180 250. we're just below 183 in pre-market on Tesla So that is crushing it. Tendys Tandy's tendys. um the overall Market looking super super weak I did go long and I didn't go long because I have faith in our politicians I didn't go long because I'm reading this day to mark that day to Mark or anything like that.

It's honestly just seasonality today tomorrow and Friday from a seasonal perspective are all pretty strong. So I figured hey, let's see if seasonality plays out this time. I am going into this knowing the odds of the situation I Know if you look at Wednesday and Thursday and Friday of this week, these dates this trading day of the month I Know that there's an 84 chance of the Bulls winning. That's not 100 chance.

There's no such thing as 100 chance in the market, but that's why I Locked in all of my profits on spy puts yesterday, made a couple thousand there, and then took a portion of those profits and rolled it into a small spy call and the expirations next. Friday But I'm looking to get like a one two, three day pop here. That's what I'm looking for I Have no idea if it's gonna play out I Just know the odds of this situation I Know it's not 100 I Know the odds favor me, but just because your dealt pocket aces doesn't mean you're gonna win in the hand. So let's see how things end up playing out.

right now. the Spy is coming down even more. I Mean, at one point yesterday, we were at 4 18. right now we're at 4 12 50.

So we've been selling, selling, selling, and then pre-market we're selling someone selling any even more. and that all has to do with what's going on with the debt ceiling and maybe some apprehensions as we head into the macroeconomic events for the remainder this week. I'm talking about the Fomc meaning minutes today that comes out at 2 pm. ET You bet your butt I will be streaming it.

We'll do a specialty stream for all that. Then later on tomorrow, we're going to get the GDP report that's going to come out an hour before the Market opens and then once again an hour before the Market opens on Friday We're getting another inflation report. the Pce report. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report is like the CPI report.

It's less popular in terms of what media talks about, but according to the FED, they actually weigh it more heavily than the CPI report. It's just more broad. It's a little bit more timely, but in your mind, you should think of the CPI report in the PC report. They're both inflation reports pretty similar.

Pretty arguably pretty similar. And so that's the market events for the remainder of the week. Tonight, after the market closes, we're going to get a Nvidia's earnings Nvidia Nvda This semiconductor play The Tech play that is going from the bottom left to the top right of your screen. It is Rip City Rippity Skippity.

Duda Ever since October that stock has simply not stopped as I'm looking at it right now, it's trading just below 303. It has put in a rare red day because I don't even think anyone knows that like Nvidia can trade downward anymore. So I Think that took some people by surprise because usually Nvidia is literally just green and green and green and more green. But anyway, they're reporting after the market closes today.

I Truly think that they're going to beat and my reasoning for that is really honestly, just because of all these other tech stocks beating. But I think we're gonna have to pay attention to its future guidance for whatever reason, over the past two, three, four earning Seasons There's clearly a obvious bias of the market weighing future guidance more than the results of the previous quarter. so I mean even look at what's going on recently. What happened with Lowe's look at what happened with Home Depot So we're going to talk about that and I also want to let you know about another earnings that just came out Kohl's KSS Kohl's Corporation it is now up around 12.6 KSS Kohl's Corporation absolutely crushing it with their earnings.

so we're going to be getting into that so we have a couple of things to talk about. obviously: I want to get everyone prepped up for the overall picture, What's going on with politics? what's going on with the economy? Then we're going to talk about the overall. Market We could do some technicals, this breakdown, that breakdown the other thing, and then we could do a position review and then maybe if you have any individual questions. In all reality, I Started this one early today because I thought the GDP was coming out this morning because I thought today was Thursday but it's not Thursday apparently it's Wednesday and then I didn't want to kick it back to nine because then already the people who are up and paying attention attention.

you're like dude, why are you starting a half hour later and I just didn't want to deal with all that backlash. especially. we're coming off such a solid day yesterday when so many people were so nice about my new haircut. So I figured I don't want to give any of those Good Vibes back.

So I figured let's start early and we could do some questions. We can listen to the news like I said a position review. we could do some chart breakdown if you have any options. questions Futures Questions algorithmic training questions I will do my best to answer what I can and if I can't I could always write the note down and look it up and figure out the answer for you and bring it back to you as early as really this afternoon because we will be doing a specialty stream at 2PM.

We'll probably start it at like whatever like 1 45 150 something like that. But today Wednesday we will be getting the Fomc the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes at 2 pm. So it's not a new update from the Fomc. it is more of the exact notes that were taken at the last Fomc meeting.

And it's kind of important because sometimes when they do the press conference afterwards, not all questions are asked that like fully shines a light on everything discussed. and usually up until the start of 2022, no one cared about the Fomc meeting minutes. Only a few Financial nerds did, but ever since the start of 2022, we realized that they put some pretty important information in there like I said, that's not always publicly discussed the day of the results. So now there is a keen interest in paying attention to how this stuff does go or doesn't go.

So really for this one, and I'll cover this in more detail later on. I Think the major thing people are going to be paying attention to is any commentary related to credit tightening, what's going on with the Fed's opinion on the whole Regional banking sector? And are there any dissenting voices as we move forward or like anyone throwing out some warning shots of okay, like should we are we unanimous in our thoughts to stop raising the interest rates because right now we have Bullard saying hey, we might want to go two more you have Barkin saying they don't want to repeat the early 70s and that is all in the backdrop of Yellen always on her high horse about like how about to run out of money and then we have Biden and McCarthy fighting about the debt limit So there's a lot of large moving pieces and when I say large I mean impacting the overall economy, the global economy, the U.S economy and obviously our stock market as well. So there's a lot of interesting I guess complexities in this one. so we're going to talk about that a bit later on, but that's pretty much it.

Why is AMC trading flat? Because not many people care about it anymore. Far, far less care about it now than they did back in June of 2021. It's just the interest in it is really, really weighing and that's pretty much why we don't talk about it here anymore because my entire goal is to talk about the interesting news. When I say interesting I mean the news and the updates and the trades that most of you are interested in and has become clear.

It's become clear that my YouTube Community doesn't really care about it anymore and I honestly would argue that uh, seemingly the rumble Community never cared about it. So obviously I'm most interested in producing and curating content that most of my viewers are interested in. So obviously we have to go the way of where all of your major interests are, so that's where we are I guess on that, and obviously more than happy to answer any of the questions if you feel like we need a follow-up but before we get into anything too too crazy, shout out to today's stream sponsor Street Beat wholeheartedly I Believe this is this is a investment Robo advisor type of a situation. Think of it as a brokerage, but it's not technically a brokerage.

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at least that's how I personally see things going. So anyway, pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video street Beat download it put in the code mat on the very first page to get that extra deposit bonus and obviously shout out to them for sponsoring today's stream. But more importantly than that, making like actually a pretty cool product. So in terms of the overall, Market the Spy got rocked at 418, we're currently at 4 12.50 making seemingly potentially a new Fresh low Tesla went all the way up to 192 almost 193.

Then that's coming back. Now we're at 180 260 so that came down ten dollars. Uh, like I said I took all of my spy put profits yesterday, made a couple thousand dollars I'm still swinging my Tesla so they're gonna up open up a couple more thousand dollars KSS I didn't traded I didn't have a prediction on it. The reason Kohl's is up here right now: I Like to see what's going on in terms of the world of somewhat retail sentiment crushing it up almost 12 and then I have Nvidia up right now trading below 303 in pre-market and I want that up just because Nvidia will be reporting after the market closes today.

Lots of fun stuff going on stock future slip as investors eye Debt ceiling Clash in Washington This is exactly the thing that everyone is paying attention to right now. as soon as this is behind us. Wait, don't sneeze. Hold it in.

Hold it in. This is Kelly Ripa Would hold it and don't sneeze. You're the master of your own body. You are the master of your own body.

You don't need to sneeze. That's what loser streamers do. Loser streamers sneeze and they drop their pens. Not you though, you have full control of all of your faculties.

Okay I think we're back to it. Stock Future slip as investors I Debt ceiling clash in Washington Obviously, we're going to be going over that massive massive news and we do have some interesting updates. Treasury yields holds steady as investors closely follow debt ceiling negotiations and awake key economic reports. Economic reports 2 p.m today, the Fomc meeting, Then tomorrow we are getting the GDP report an hour before the Market opens, and then we get the inflation report an hour before the Market opens on Friday right here.

I Kind of highlighted all the major ones. What? I Want to call out to use today at 2PM I Will be doing a specialty stream. We're going to start at around like 1 45 and we're going to stream this, watch the markets reaction, and also obviously update you of just like any of the trades or if there's any other news related to the debt negotiations and all that stuff. But anyway, 1 45 p.m today.

So just after lunch, we will be doing a specialty stream UK Inflation sinks below 10 for the first time since August So at first, that's pretty good news. At first, you're growing like sick inflation coming down. Unfortunately, their core inflation is actually still trending upward. It was higher than expected.

So they're like the equivalent to our treasuries. in the UK They have what's referred to as guilts. Like we have our treasuries. U.S Treasuries They have UK Guilt.

Those are actually popping. The yields on those are popping. so the bonds are going down. So uh, some concern over there.

maybe not the best news from our counterparts across the sea Within the U.S Mortgage demand drops again as rates cross back over two percent. Mortgage applications to purchase a home drop four percent for a week, and we're 30 percent lower than the same week. One year ago, applications to refinance a home loan decrease five percent from the previous week, and we're 44 lower than the same week one year ago. That's what happens when the financial situation within a country gets a little bit shaky.

and also interest rates are High I Mean, let's just be realistic, getting into real estate right now looks a lot less attractive just because people are looking at the monthly payments and they're like I don't want to pay that relative to two years ago for the same amount of money, you're getting a lot less home I Don't think that these Trends I mean is it really surprising anyone at all like this is realistic for what's going on. I Want you know for today? just bringing in our focus a little bit. I Do want you to know: today is seasonally very bullish. So the S P 500 seasonal bias for today Wednesday May 24th The Bulls have won this individual day buying it open, selling.

it closed three out of four times 76 with a profit factor of 3.87 Every dollar spent has returned 387 so profiting 287 on each dollar. And here's the equity curve once again of buying it open, selling it, Close this. I tested it on the Futures Market The Spy is going to be roughly the same slight deviations just because they open at different times. The spy Spy that ETF obviously opens up at 9 30 with the market, but the Futures Market opens up at 6 PM the night before.

So similar, but uh, slight nuances and I want to call that out to everyone. But anyway, here's the equity curve of buying at open Selling it closed on this individual day over the past 25 years. Uh, it's won three out of four times. And then that's the trade that I'm currently in when I'm pairing this up with the bullish seasonality of today to tomorrow and Friday Wednesday Thursday Friday of this week from a seasonal perspective is bullish.

Is that a guarantee that it works out this time around? God No, that's not how statistics. Works None of these have a win percentage of 100. That's the thing that just does not exist in the market unless you're doing inverse. Kramer that does have some arguably pretty reasonable numbers.

But anyway, I Just want to share my reasoning with you of why I switch from Spy puts to spy calls. This is it. It's exclusively because of seasonality. It's not because I'm feeling good about our politicians or feeling good about the GDP report or the inflation report or anything like that.

It's because I know the next three days just from historic data are pretty bullish and I'm wondering if it's going to repeat once again. Now, obviously if the market is starting to vomit, if there's like a super negative report related to the debt ceiling or anything like that, I'll cut the position I'm not just going to like hold this to zero I Mean that would just be potentially wasting thousands of dollars. so I don't have any interest in that. So yeah, I will have a pain point if it goes against me too much.

I'll cut it and I'll I'll let all of you know I I will let all of you know Kohl's shares Spike As retail reports a surprise pop profit, excuse me So uh, coming in at 13 cents for EPS when they were expecting a loss of 42. so that's a pretty large surprise. And then in terms of Revenue slightly beating 3.36 billion versus 3.34 so Cole's crushing it. and that's exactly why Kohl's is up 11.7 in pre-market as we are talking now now I Do want you to know after the market closes today, we have Nvidia Also, pay attention to Snowflake.

It's just it's a data analytics company. Actually, it's one of the few ones backed by Warren Buffett from even the IPO stage. When before the Market opens tomorrow, we get Best Buy we get Dollar Tree and we get TD bank and then after the market closes, we're going to get Costco Ulta Beauty I Know some people are training that and then from here on out there are a couple more earnings next week, but this is pretty much the end of earnings season. Really, you could argue it's done when with Nvidia that's the last major Mega cap stock reporting.

so kind of done after this one. Just want you guys to all know important but arguably the most important thing is right here: Debt limit talks. stall is time runs short to avert U.S Default GOP Claims White House shows little urgency in negotiations Democrats say McCarthy is refusing to offer compromises. Well, that's what happens when you have the leverage.

In a scenario when you have pretty much all of the leverage you don't have to compromise on much, Obviously, he's not going to get everything he wants. That's just not how politics like. What's that saying with negotiations? No one leaves the negotiating table happy like you're going to have to end up compromising. But in this scenario it's just kind of getting wild.

The thing I find most frustrating about it is how late they started the talks. This was a known date. It's not like this date of June 1st came out of nowhere. We've known this for a while for many, many months and the fact that they've really started to get this going and like maybe talking about it in April but really rocking in May the month before I mean I Get that we all did that when we were turning in our like high school and college projects of like you know the whole due tomorrow means like due tomorrow d-u-e to do like that type of a thing.

That's one thing if we're like students, it's a different thing if you're leading the most powerful economy in the entire world. Uh, so I think that's particularly frustrating on both sides that they just didn't get it rocking a little bit earlier. But anyway, debt limit talks in Washington have hit a fresh impasse with negotiators far apart on key issues, especially the spending cuts. Demand demanded by Republicans As Time runs short to avert a historic U.S default.

There was no sign that President Joe Biden and house Speaker Kevin McCarthy had spoken since their meeting at the White House This most recent Monday a new round of discussions between their hand-picked negotiators on Tuesday ended with the two sides deadlocked over an eventual agreement to raise the federal borrowing limit. House Republicans escalated their accusations that Biden lacked urgency in negotiations while a democratic aide called McCarthy unwilling to compromise across a wide spectrum of disputed points, threatening the legislative proposal of a deal. So let me read this part and then I want to have a like a a brainstorm session with all of you. If a default does occur, economists project, it could throw the U.S into recession with widespread job losses and other Economic Consequences spilling into the coming election year.

I Don't think anyone's surprised by that. But what I do want to talk about with all of you is this concept Of my question here is: when the debt limit negotiations come to an end, compromises are made, we figure it all out and we take the can down the road. Do you think the Market's going to go up or do you think it's going to go down and at first your knee-jerk reaction might be? Well, yeah, of course we're going to go up. That's good news.

We're taking an uncertainty out of the market and we don't have to worry about the US defaulting. That's a fair thought. but if you go back to the last time that there was like major major issues with the debt ceiling, you're going to be talking about 2011. in 2011, there was a momentary Pop Please fact, check me on this one.

I Believe it lasted for about two days. After that, The market actually continued to sell And part of the reason. And this is definitely multi-faceted. But part of the reason is in the compromise: there were spending cuts when you're doing spending cuts.

Yeah, that helps on one thing, such as inflation, which we all want to come down. but inherently there's less money in the system. Now, remember when we were all locked inside and our economy was arguably not good, the stock market ripped to a new all-time high Because there was so much money being pushed into the system via a process known as quantitative easing. And then all of a sudden when things started to open back up, our stock market actually came down.

Because we went from QE to QT quantitative tightening, we were taking money out of the system. So right here? Yeah, when you do government spending cuts, that definitely definitely definitely helps with spending. But in terms of the stock market, you people are just. it's literally less money.

It's less spending, which generally isn't good for the market. And that's exactly what happened in 2011.. So on the announcement that we came to some sort of negotiation and the debt ceiling was successfully raised and like basically pandemonium was paused for a moment. Yeah, there's a little bit of a pop, but then if you look at it and if you want to look at the time frame roughly July and August of 2011, then we sold And sold And sold And sold.

So obviously that was the last major one and I think it's just food for thought and I would love to get your thoughts. Let me know in a comment: I'm here to talk about it with all of you. You can be like, well, hang on man I was looking at it and like, yeah, 2011 was the last major fight, But then what happened in 2013. in 2013, it wasn't as confrontational if you will, but also in those ones when they negotiated and it was solved, then the market actually did pop.

So we do have some conflicting data. I would argue that 2011 is much more similar to our current situation than 2013, but even with that, when you're comparing all the three, there's clear nuances. So for example, in 2011, the unemployment rate was almost double triple 2.5 x where we are right now. So it's not perfectly comparing Apples to Apples.

So I I just wanted to throw that out there and just give you something to maybe mull over and just understand that as soon as it is announced or it isn't announced, well, if it is saying hey, if we actually end up defaulting, that's a pretty clear bearish play. But if they do, you come to some sort of resolution, which I wholeheartedly believe. That doesn't necessarily mean we should be like degenerately yoloing into calls because history tells us a little bit of a different story. Maybe it's not as such a slam dunk play as you would think it is, But anyway, with all that being said, would love to get your thoughts.

Would love to chat about it because we do have a little bit of extra time this morning. So where's everyone else at on that? I Wanted to share some facts Politico did a really good write-up on it. So where are you cool cats and kittens on that? If it is resolved, there's a really good chance it involves heavy spending cuts. Heavy spending cuts.

Not so good for the stock market, but it is good for an inflation. So as I was alluding to before when we were starting this. like the complexity here of everything interconnected I actually find it to be really, really interesting. but I want to know where you guys are Matt Got haircut? yeah tracks.

thanks for noticing I appreciate that. Interesting information. Thanks Matt That's that's what you guys pay me all the big bucks for just all that interesting information. Uh I Don't do options I Swing ETFs Your life's probably a lot less volatile than mine I Agree on work participation.

Unemployment rate is not the one to look at. They have fudged those numbers. Work participation rate is. well, you need both.

Doc wonder I would argue You need to look at labor force participation and also unemployment If you just look at one of those, it doesn't tell you the full like you're not getting the full picture I would argue like whenever I look at those numbers I mean right now our labor force participation correct me if I'm wrong. it's like 62 point something percent. which it's okay and unemployment's actually had like a five decade low. Um but I don't like just knowing one of those numbers because it's only a like a piece of the picture.

You need both of those numbers. In 2011, the market sold off after the ceiling was raised so not out of the woods. Even if we get past this initial deal negotiation to us, do I need to give you demerit? It feels like you just joined and like I just went on a whole spiel about that of why Dos you're breaking my heart I think this is the first no I like dos so much I'm not going to give him a demerit just because I can do that as the king of this digital. Kingdom I Can choose to not give demerits to people who deserve demerits, but that was due to the downward credit ratings that may not happen.

That's what I'm saying. You can't exactly compare 2011 to here because afterwards we did the S P did downgrade the U.S uh credit. so that's not good at all. so that helped.

um I guess like exacerbate the whole situation. the negative situation for sure and that all happened in 2011. it might happen this time, but it might not. But in terms of the U.S credit, the S standard Imports downgraded the US Uh, that happened in 2011.

uh, this is the ramen after your spy calls go to. this was wrong. After your spine calls go to Lee I Appreciate that King I didn't vote for you. sorry man.

Just got here. It's all good. Dos Um yeah, that's how Sensei that's how kings work. You don't really vote too much on those ones.

Sounds like the 400 puts for June could print they could, but there would have to be a couple things that really come together. So anyway, right now, the Spy as you can see on their screen is not looking good. I mean we are going from 4 18 at the peak yesterday to almost 4 12. if you're looking for some levels of Interest 4 12, 17.

is clear resistance. Uh, resistance, a little consolidation, resistance, resistance, resistance, a little bit of support. So I'm watching 412 Like 412 and some change. Basically where we're at right now.

I'm looking for some support to be found here. if it is found here. I Do want to call out to all of you. There is now a new upside: Gap They'll play from this current gap down.

and obviously the upside: Gap They'll play is to this green number of 4 13 68 Upside: Gap Fill Play to 41368 we have another one all the way up to here to 421.22 Oops I did not want to do that and then we have some down here to 407, 27, 401, 60 and there's actually a reach one at 396.49 So right now in the overall Market there's two upside Gap fills and three downside Gap fills given enough time, I wholeheartedly believe that they're all going to get filled. It's just a question of when it might happen today. It might happen years from now. Um, the odds on it are pretty good to get filled relatively quickly.

But for example, this 421 22 that was created in August of last year. So we're almost getting to the better of a part of a year without this being filled. So I just want to let you know that yeah, the odds are good for a gap-filled play, but that once again, nothing, nothing's 100. The market is always living in the gray area of between 1 and 99.

No such thing as zero. no such thing as a hundred, just simply does not happen. So anyway, I Want to call that out to you that right now in pre-market the overall Market is at support. There is an upside Gap though, and the next three days are seasonally bullish.

Do I sound biased? of course I do because yesterday at Market close I bought calls I wanted to go up. so even on a subconscious level, I'm probably looking for things that really help out my position. but in a weird way I am hedged because I swung all of my Tesla puts and I have all my IEP puts as well. So I'm actually kind of feeling fine with all this today.

like not feeling like too too much pressure. But anyway, we went off on a little bit of a tangent there. what are we going? Wall is breaking down unfortunately. All right I Just want to give you the most recent update from Graves, who's one of the GOP negotiators for the debt limit talks.

Where are we at? Because when we heard from the house Speaker yesterday, he said that basically they would be talking every day until a deal was done. It's a fairly a mixed signals at best. Heidi As you mentioned there, we had some Republican negotiators coming out of those talks today, making the point that substantial movement uh needs to be made. On the Democrat side, they use the word impasse in terms of where it talks are at and like you said, they said they're uh, there aren't any other meetings set up for the moment.

but at the same time though, they also said substantial progress has been made and some of the core issues in terms of where the Republicans are looking for for the spending codes especially in on social welfare programs for those out of work for example. and they he made the point that they're not going away. so the door appears to be open for ongoing talks. but the mood music is that we're getting ever closer to this x-day that treasure Factory Treasure Secretary Jonathan Allen is talking about.

You see, the markets are getting a little bit jittery now about this. They had been relatively saying wine up to now, but by all accounts I think over coming days. Yeah, I Would imagine investors will want to see more clarity in terms of where these talks will be going. Yeah, yields on security is maturing June 6th topping at six percent.

but you said it. And I mean there's this questioning of even the X State and I guess how concerning is it I Love how the Republicans oh let me pause it there yesterday the Republicans were we don't actually even believe in June 1st which I don't know why I Don't think anyone else is finding it as funny as I particularly do, but everyone's been talking about June 1st I mean Yellen's saying we don't have money The U.S treasury as a whole is saying we don't have money people are doing The Rundown in the charts and saying dude based on how much money we've been spending over the past couple weeks like we might run out. actually even earlier some people are pointing out and then the Republicans are saying hey, uh, we're kind of far away. silly negotiations and on top of that, we don't really trust in the numbers you're saying for June 1st like it's just so comedic to me.

They're like and on top of it, we're not buying your dates either. So funny, so funny. it's sad. So you have two options.

You can either cry about it or you could realize that whatever. it's a simulation anyway and it doesn't really matter, so you might as well laugh. They're gone and we might eventually get to an accident. So there are two things going on.

You have the Republicans who are quite skeptical about the treasury calculations and pushing back on this idea that early. June is the X date. there's easy on Market analyst notes and they're talking with some of their own estimates, suggesting that you know the treasury could keep things taking over over for a little while later into June giving more time for these talks to go on. But also, of course you have the White House and they makes their own colleagues who are reporting today.

that treasury sent out a memo to all of the agencies saying making sure that they're getting their essentially getting their calculations correct in terms of how long they can keep things running for in terms of money. So there is a view that perhaps the White House might like to try and string this out until mid May until in mid-june period when the next big tax payments are due. And then of course that would allow them to kick the whole process down the road too. So both both sides are dancing around the edges.

A little bit on this, but you have to say that the sooner or the closer we get there at X8 one would imagine Global markets Focus will sharpen considerably on this. We have been in this kind of Gray Zone whereby it's quite sanguine. Everyone expects ultimately there will be an outcome, but a closer closer. We get to that date and if it is apparent that both sides are really locked in, then I Think you will see much more volatility around the story.

A little more volatility around the story. All right. I'm pulling I threw up a poll to see what you guys are thinking about today. Um, oops, No.

I don't want that I wanted this I forgot one part that I wanted to add in here. Uh, the current standoff of the U.S Debt ceiling has the potential to wreak more havoc on the economy than any previous go around. Uh. Treasury Secretary: Janet Yellen on Monday called for highly likely that a department would run out of cash in early June without an extension of the debt ceiling and repeat her warning that the moment could come as soon as June 1st Republican Representative Garrett Graves that's one of the main Reps for the GOP said this Bottom line is that we're going to have to see some movement or some fundamental change in what they're doing.

right now. we don't have additional meetings set up. This was yesterday: McCarthy Told Biden that he did not intend to retreat from public refusals to accept additional taxes as part of an agreement. So they're basically saying hey, the deficit isn't an income issue, it's an outgoing issue.

In fact, in terms of taxes, it went up by almost a trilly. And the issue is, our spending went up even more than that. so the deficits getting larger as our debt ceilings going up. But the the Republicans in this particular argument I mean they make a good point of it's not the money going into the government is how much money is going out of the government.

Um, I'm sure some people in here who um, don't like Republicans you're probably going to have an issue with that statement and I just think, well hang on a second. This the bipartisan nature of our current political system is a massive massive detriment. If you can't list on both sides things you agree with and things you disagree with it. I Truly just believe that you're uninformed.

There's no person I believe who's like I am fully in line with everything that represents being a Republican or on the other side of it I am fully in line with everything that represents being a Democrat To me, this that concept of like you have to be that tribe and like agree with everything that they say 100 of the time I just don't buy it I truly believe it just means that you're uninformed. You should be able to go through all the major voting issues and be like okay I agree with this side because of XYZ I agree with that side because of ABC on the next issue. Whatever it is on this particular one, yes, our government spends too much. It's as simple as that and arguably it makes inflation worse.

That's one issue. that's not me just saying oh, I'm some sort of Hardcore Republican and I love everything they do because that's not true. There's things that I think Democrats do right? That's what being an informed citizen, being an informed voters all about is knowing what both sides are saying on major issues. and maybe if you're really into politics all of the issues.

but overall, like I I just don't get that like you don't have to be all Republican you don't have to be all Democrat What you should be is informed on various matters that you find of particular interests and importance. So anyway, before we get into it I don't want to just to be like oh like Matt's all over the Democrats yeah on this I will because they got themselves into quite a pickle and I think it's funny to watch because I don't know it's I find it funny I have a messed up sense of humor. Sue me, but that don't project this out to every single issue like that's just honestly silly. Anyway, that's my opinion.

whatever. Um, where were we at Little to no room, they're negotiating blah blah blah. Anyway, it's just not sounding like the best and it's already the 24th with basic basically means we have a week to go I very much believe they're gonna get it figured out. I really really do.

and that's just yeah. like I don't think either side actually is gonna like Risk the default but I think we have the Democrats that are going to end up compromising here because they're just in a worse position the in this individual situation, the Republicans clearly have more leverage. Speaking of politics, um, we got some interesting announcements yesterday: I don't know if you missed it Ron DeSantis to join Elon Musk on Twitter Wednesday Today to announce 2024 run Florida Governor Scene as most formidable Challenger to Trump Twitter Event underscores DeSantis Focus on cultural War issues My question for all of you as I say I don't want to get political is for the Republicans in the house as in not like our Congressional house but I mean like in here hanging out with us like today If you identify as Republican who do you like more DeSantis or trump it feels like the disparity between those two groups is growing and at first it's easy just to think because you get so much more air time that Trump is like the evident person um, but DeSantis like I mean his poll numbers aren't great, but they are upticking and I noticed that some of the prominent names on Rumble seem to actually favor DeSantis over Trump So I just kind of wanted to know where your minds were at Ron over Trump Trump Ron Orange Man Trump Trump more DeSantis months ago but Trump Now see what I'm saying is like DeSantis is an idiot Trump the scientist is not going to win Ronnie uh, the mostly great DeSantis Trump made DeSantis see see how it's even kind of like a little bit back and forth here. the JFK All right Trump 24 DeSantis 28 Ron See what I'm saying though like even look at the comments coming across um I Don't know if the fracturing is just the aspect of getting the parties like I guess initial uh, vote of confidence and then from there everyone just like really gets behind one guy.

but I do uh, the fact that there's like we're almost getting two evident factions here and I just find it interesting so just wanted to ask all of you I appreciate your inputs learning. Now the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis does plan to formally launch his bid for the U.S presidency Of course, the presidential election here in the U.S slated for November of 2024. Of course he has to win his Republican party's nomination in order to get uh down to that level. We're now starting to see the field shape up just now.

Ryan T Beckwith Joining us, he's Bloomberg reporter down in Washington D.C Orion Uh, of course we already knew that Trump Ryan doesn't look like he likes. We know that Joe Biden Lisa at least tentatively is planning to run as well. Senator Tim Scott Throwing his head into the ring on the Republican side and now Ron DeSantis a few months ago, was going to be the front runner for the Republican nomination set to make a formal announcement tomorrow. Yes, that's right.

I Think he's still the front runner for the non-trump position in the Republican primary, but that field has grown larger. I Think we're seeing a lot more people like Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin have uh, second thoughts about maybe running. maybe joining the field. the larger the field.

of course, the easier it is for Trump to run away with it as we saw in 2016. Well, how formidable is Ron DeSantis to a trump? Of course, like you said, he is maybe the front runner among the non-trump contingent. But if this is the race for the Republican nomination, Trump and Ron DeSantis I mean how much of a chance really does does Santa's have? How do we get that woman right there? has a good chance. He's shown that he has a lot of achievements for conservative voters.

Uh, from his time as Governor he's used to that bully pulpit extensively. I Don't know if all of those things will help him down the road with general election voters, but they've all been very popular ideas among Republican voters. and he does have the fundraising chops and it's still early in the game. I Don't think he's running away with it in the way that some of his supporters had hoped that he would.

Trump remains a formidable front-runner in the race, of course. Yeah, he is going to be the elephant until he decides to remove himself. Ryan I am curious here about what Republican voters do want. We know that DeSantis has really sort of made his calling card his National brand around, pushing back against the so-called woke politics or Woke companies.

here. Is that a policy or just an ideology? I think it's it's more of a position. One of his ads positioned him as a fighter and I think that his take away from Trump's success was that it wasn't so much what you were fighting about as the fact that you were fighting and these culture War things have provided him with a sort of an easy target, something that he could make national news with fairly easily. There's not a lot of downside in a republican-controlled state.

uh, other than the sort of backlash to the Disney stuff, these are easy fights too for him to win in Florida and that gives him points on the board. Well, there you have it. Uh, I don't know the official time I don't think it's been announced, but if you guys figured out, let me know. We could totally stream it.

Ron DeSantis lines up Business Leaders to raise money for 2024 presidential run. So this came out yesterday on top of the fact that we are getting a Twitter space call between Elon and DeSantis. Uh, honestly I know that Trump has true social, but if Trump came on for Twitter space call with Elon Musk it's tough to see how that wouldn't break the internet. I Think it would not just be the largest space call of like all time, but I think it would be the largest space call of all time by multiples.

like literally multiples would be coming through. Um, like I think hundreds of thousands of people would be in there I Don't think it'll do it because Trump is pretty like I don't know devoted I suppose to True social so I don't think it would happen. Uh, but it would be interesting this. even this DeSantis Elon one I think is going to get pretty large.

Uh, morning brother Matt I'm fixing to blow your mind. Information is power when you get a chance. After hours research pulse pulse X and Doge post have a great three-day weekend sir GTA Nation Shout out uh, are you talking about Richard Hart's new pulse chain? uh Richard Hart the creator of Hex. He basically copied Ethereum and according to him, he made it slightly better and that's pulse.

Uh so I think that's what you're talking about. so I know a little bit. Uh, basically that's where all my Hex is right now, but we'll hopefully it gets some I guess traction I guess uh Richard Hart is a scammer might be I don't know I don't really know too much about him I just know he made hex I don't know about scams or not. scams might be might not be I am just personally uninformed on that.

Uh, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is gearing up to announce his presidential campaign as he tries to catch up with GOP front runner G Donald Trump In the polls, the Census campaign has put together a list of Business Leaders and Republican donors to raise money for his 2024 run multiple DeSantis bundlers supported former Florida Governor Jeb Bush failed White House bid in 2016. On this note, does anyone know the time that Elon is going to be speaking? Anyone know the time? What happened to your crypto show? We rolled it into this show Sean it was just easier I think it prompted too much confusion. So all the live streams happen from this channel Matt Core is live and then there isn't a channel for more of my evergreen content. Uh, he's not a robot.

Is it normal for people to only trade index options? I've been killing it. I've been made more money past couple months than I've done my uh yeah uh Mr G Clapper that is common people like sometimes. I Know people who trade just an individual stock in individual index, not even multiple indexes. People just find what their what makes them money and why change? Why change the thing that's working type of a type of a deal and also for you if you're trading index options, you're saving yourself if you're trading.

SPX you're saving yourself money on taxes as well, which is pretty sweet. Five things to know before that stock market belt goes dingy. Ding ding ding today after this: I Want to share? what I think is a pretty interesting story with all of you. So Gloom grows.

That's why the Market's down right now. Uh, we are slicing and dicing downward and downward and downward and it looks pretty freaking brutal. What's the deal? Uh, these two are essentially tied together because everyone wants to know what's going on the debt limit. Netflix cracks down.

They are going to start charging people to share passwords. It's an extra eight dollars a month. It's over virgin orbit apparently. Uh, wait.

right here. The once promising rocket company founded by Richard Branson is now fully dead after selling off the bulk of his assets to aerospace companies. Uh, so I Just want to let you know I don't know. At one point everyone was talking about Spce and now kind of no one is so.

I I didn't know if you guys 6 PM ET I appreciate you guys sharing that 6 P.m ET the Ron and Elon show perfect timing. Looks like it's going down at 6 p.m We will stop calling. Rhonda Sanchez The potential presidential candidate The Florida Governor is expected to announce his run at 6 PM ET Wednesday on Twitter spaces in a discussion with the Social Platforms owner. and Tesla CEO Elon Musk Do you guys want to stream that? Should we do a stream of it? Do you want to stream the Twitter space? Call all together in here 6 PM E2 Should we do two surprise streams today? Two surprise streams I See one? Yes.

I See two? No's all right. Looks like it's 33. Yes. uh oh more yeses are coming in.

F No Well, F no Yes, yes, no. Don't listen to tracks. All right. Those are the major things uh, according to CNBC that you should know for today, Let me bring up this.

Let me get over here. Uh, in terms of the levels, I'm watching on the Spy First downside: Target We're actually at it right now for 12 and some change. below that I'm watching 410 and some change. Upside: We do have an upside Gap fill to 413.68 and then from there I'm watching 4 15 25.

in terms of a smaller time frame, uh, I can share all my positions with you. Let me drop this to the one minute just so we don't miss the Market opening. Uh, the market is vomiting Tesla is vomiting Kohl's KSS is rocketing after destroying its earnings and then Nvidia is selling off right now at 302. And just so you know, Nvidia will be reporting after the market closes today.

in terms of seasonality today tomorrow and Friday do favor the Bulls but we do have also something pretty special going on this time around. The previous ends of may have not commonly had serious serious debt ceiling negotiation, so just want to share that with all of you. I also want to share my current positions right now: I have spy calls for June 2nd I got into them right when the market closed yesterday. as the market closed.

they would break even because I got in right at Market close as the market opened today. they're probably going to be like down 20 percent. Uh, I did 416 for June 2nd I got in at 3 54. the plays that I'm in right now that are probably going to be printing big at open are Tesla and IEP.

so Tesla I was already up uh 36 I did the 182.5 puts for June 2nd I got in at 296. they were training at four. These puppies will probably be trading at like 550 or maybe five or something when this opens, but I'm expecting a large jump in my Tesla position when this goes dignity, ding ding ding and IEP I'm already up considerably. I'm already up 121 at some point today.

there's I'll probably take off half of these I have 20 I'll probably take off 10 in some other accounts I have Wall calls that's for mid-june and then in my interactive brokers account I have more IEP puts for June 16th I think those ones have a strike price of 25. um, me sharing this with all of you is in no way a sign that like oh, I'm just going to copy what Matt does No, because you you don't know what I'm getting in, you don't know when I'm getting out, you don't know Always my full thesis and that type of stuff I just want to share with you to be as transparent as possible, but that doesn't mean just like willy-nilly copy me if you have your own thesis and we happen to be on the same side of the trade. congratulations like I'm getting, we're on the same team I Hope we're like gonna be crushing it together. Uh, if we're on the opposite side of the trade, well no, no hard feelings.

but I hope I'm right. You know this is at the end of the day we got to trade our own accounts here. But anyway, my spy calls that I got in are going to be down right at open. The Tesla puts are going to be a big I mean we're gapping down to me being in the money, so I'll probably trim off some of those today.

Well, it depends if this is just like a horrific bleed of the day. I might just like hold it, but I'm gonna wait I'm gonna wait for the market open and kind of get a good vibe to see what's going on. uh, in video we can watch that KSS we can watch that IEP I think it's interesting just because we did close below 28. to me IEP this is the icon play I know a lot of you are crushing it on that.

So so congrats if you're doing it. Uh I'm I'm interested in locking in some of those games today. Uh, the start of this year January February was like a really rough patch for me trading, but recently I just feel like I'm in the zone I feel like I've been crushing it? uh, the last couple weeks? Uh, just nice, nice, nice Pros profits but not just nice profits I Feel like my psychology has been where I really want it? Uh, doing my best to stick to my risk reward. Things have been smooth like I haven't been waking up in the middle of the night worried about my positions or checking everything like I just feel like I've been in a little bit more control lately.

Um, so a couple weeks now we've been going on a pretty nice run and we'll see how far it can continue. We'll see how far it can continue in the zone. That's what it feels like. Uh, that's actually a phenomenal psychology book.

In the world of trading, it's called trading in the Zone You could follow in the audiobook. The hardcover. the uh, um I think it's even on YouTube someone has the whole thing. Um, uh so SPC is dead I didn't hear the news.

that's what they were saying on CNBC I I Haven't been covering Virgin Galactic too much just because no one's really been shown any interest in it lately. Uh, I that's just according to CNBC but selling off their parts? Uh I Think they were signaling for bankruptcy quite a while ago and it seems like they are moving forward with that now. Remember, even in these types of scenarios, crazy stuff can happen. We've seen it recently with like Revlon or even Bed Bath and Beyond They are trading on markets and they can move and sometimes there's many squeezes and that type of stuff, but it doesn't ever really mean that it's like coming back from the dead.

It's more of a zombie type of a situation. What's the next resistance for KSS Happy to look into it. Happy to look into it. We're opening at 22.

I Would want to see it above the high 22s like 2280 22 90 so about 65 cents above where we are. but the major one comes at 23.95 so just call it 24 flat Man Tesla is going to be printing money for me this morning Printing money this morning I mean we Tesla closed at 185.77 we're at 182 gapping down. Wow! Three dollars and fifty cents that put play uh honestly for those of you who watched this stream yesterday that that's one that I thought I was really in the zone I was about to get in a little too early and then you guys were like no, no no wait I was like I was even saying that I was like I should wait like just wait for the reports to come out. Yesterday we had a report at 9 45 the PMI Services manufacturing.

then we had new home sales at 10 and I waited for it to get a little bit closer to resistance to lower my risk and that's all you can do and then fortunately it played out in my favor. but Tesla like it was just such a smooth play I knew what was going on I had a good thesis, it was running too much and I just waited for that opportunity and sometimes you're gonna do that and it's still going to blow up in your face like that. Totally could have happened. Uh, but this time it's nice to see it actually working out.

Nice to see it working out. Uh Virgin Galactic Version: Orbit I thought it was Virgin orbit uh Starboy I like the name I'll double check that for you um I don't want to speak with like any form of like expertise or really being like I just haven't tracked that what's going on just because no one's been like doing anything with them like they just haven't been popular. The volumes though. so I'll look into it I don't want to give anyone like any wrong information.

The reason we're even talking about is it was just one of the the five things to know according to CNBC it's not a position I have anything on I haven't been trading them in a while, we haven't talked about them in a while. Um, so if you're in those I highly, highly, highly implore you to go like check it out Moto Dallas Matt when you're on the Zone it helps us all Keep up the good work. Thank you! Hit the like Shout out Mo to Dallas I Very much appreciate it I Hope you're crushing it and uh, correct me if I'm wrong but I hope your daughter is crushing it in uh, her like Moto dirt bike competitions? uh I believe you posted that picture of her with uh, whatever metal. So I hope she's still dominating.

Uh, what are your indicators to cut options? play for you? Well, a lot of the times some brokerages are really weird with limits in terms of like, limit stops. It's broker-dependent so a lot of the times I'll use actually a like a price on the underlying asset. So for example in Tesla I was looking at 192 193 and it did pop above 192 but it barely held. Then it started selling.

but if it was showing strength of it I would have just cut it. So a lot of the time I'm using uh, support and resistance levels on the underlying asset. Uh, sometimes that gets a little bit complicated and I'll actively move it just because you have to consider your time until expiration. So sometimes you have to be like a little bit more stringent there.

So a couple factors come into play and it's probably best to use just trailing stops if your brokerage allows you to do that on all on your options. But not all brokerages do. five minutes. All right.

Well with the five minute warning, shout out to today's stream sponsor if you haven't already download Street Beep! It is free to download. You could use the code Matt M-a-t-t-n When you do your first investment with that code, you will get a bonus of anywhere from five to five thousand. I Love Street Beep They have cool AI technology to create your own trading strategies. You can buy and sell stock.

They do not get a payment for order flow. Kickback Um, if you have any questions on it I'll do my best to answer, but that's kind of the skinny on treaty. You've probably heard me Pitch it to you before, especially if you're a person who commonly listens to the show. It is awesome.

You gotta check it out. Check it out. Check it out. Download it.

It's good for your iPhone it's good for your Android use the code map. The referral link will be on the very first page if you have any questions DM me do whatever you need to. but uh, it's definitely worthwhile to check out. And just so you know, it's also not for people just in the US you can use this Robo advisor uh, in various different countries.

so if you're watching from Europe right now, definitely definitely definitely check it out. What happened to MooMoo I was never associated with them I I never used them. So I don't really have any commentary, but I just had no association with them whatsoever. Let's get ready for the day.

We are about three minutes out, three minutes and a little bit of change before the Bell goes. Dingety ding ding ding today. Are there any questions? Any questions whatsoever? Do you have questions on the seasonality trade? You have questions on options, futures. Um, if you have questions on John Wick number four.

It just came out for like rental and Amazon Prime or something. I started watching it and I love it Like there's just it's the fourth iteration of a guy running around with a gun saying yeah, killing everyone I don't know what else we could like, possibly need in a movie if you really ask me. I Mean it's just. it's phenomenal across every metric.

every actionable metric it crushes. He just runs around and kills everyone. There's another dog in this movie, so that's pretty sick. I Really like the first one because of the dog there.

Actually, that was more of a sad one, but then he had a dog at the end. So this is the third prominent dog in the John Wick series. and I want to give anything away? Um, but great movie, great movie! Can you tell us about Warrants Warrants are very, very similar to options with some like nuanced differences. like when you're trading options, when you exercise it, it doesn't increase the outstanding Share account warrants do.

Warrants commonly have a much farther expiration than options, so options could be like the daily, the weekly. The monthly warrants are like sometimes years out, three, five, ten. uh, so usually a lot longer of a time frame. They do expire the way that options do.

Uh, you can exercise them the way options do, but in the exercising process like I said, warrants add to the outstanding Share account like you're creating new shares. options don't. Um, there are some other Nuance differences, but those are the major differences. Uh John Works 13 will be the same as John with you'll still buy two tickets.

Oh, for sure we're not giving away any spoilers. I mean but also in the trailer you can see the other dog. All right. All right, All right, what's my price target for Tesla I've June 2nd puts 180.

um so I'm gonna be watching 180 flat and then from there I'm watching 170 7.50 so I'm watching 180 flat I'm watching 170 7.50 and I'll be paying attention to how the stock reacts to it. I would love for my first profit to be taken at 170 7.50 but I don't know if the market overlords are going to give us that opportunity today. Can we go long and spy it open or are you reconsidering your position all up to you? I mean obviously I'm not the happiest about this gap down, but it is what it is. uh I wish I got in right at open here.

not when the market closed yesterday, but that's there is. sometimes things would have gapped up and then I would have been mad if I didn't take it knowing the odds on the situation. So um, obviously the overnight session did not favor me, but I don't know, it's 50 50. actually the odds are a little bit better A lot of the times we get nice upward movements in the overnight session so it this one's not going in my favor if we vomit today obviously.

I'm gonna have risk management, but I'm still optimistic, but that's up to you. I presented you with my thesis I Presented you with the facts that I'm using to make this trade. If you like it, have at it. If you don't like it, well, it's not for you.

There's there's so many things moving right now. The volatility is beautiful. Don't think that that's the only play in the market. If you feel more comfortable doing something else, you should do that other thing.

uh I bet the ASPCA would deny John wickicat. That's what John and I have In similar, we're in a similar circumstance. calls at 4, 11, 60. I'm seeing big support in the low 412s and then there's more support in the low 410s obviously.

I Hope we hang out above 412 actually. and on that no dignity. ding ding ding. The casino is open.

Let's get ready to rumble. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly if not, have fun. Speaking about playing responsibly, look at that opening.

My Tesla I was up 30 now I'm up 84. uh, up 5.5 or up 2.5 k there, up 4.9 K on IEP and down 750 on those spy calls that I got into. So overall looks like a good opening for the best. Trader On this side of the Mississippi which is which is me If you're new to the show, which is which is me folks.

destroy the like button. Help help a friend out because that's what we are in our parasocial relationship. We're a bunch of friends. Uh, would love the assistance if you guys could destroy the like button.

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