Hey what's going on everyone, i hope you're having an amazing day, i'm matt and i'm here with another market update since it's june 30th. We are officially done with the fiscal quarter and we are halfway through the year. I guess time flies when you're stuck at home. In this update i'll be covering the recent market action, how one of my seasonal june trading strategies performed and, finally, where i think the market's heading next, if you're interested in this type of content subscribe to the channel, the support means a lot to me.

Don't forget to turn on your notifications, so you don't miss any of the videos if there's a particular stock. You want me to cover feel free to. Let me know, as you're probably well aware the s p 500 put in a solid green day. It looks like it gained just over 1.5 percent, since it is the last day of the month.

Let's see how we're doing on the bigger picture, this is the monthly chart for the s p. 500. I think everyone's well aware that we had some volatile moves in the recent month, but it's nice to know that we actually ended a positive two percent. I hope you were able to capitalize on this bullish sentiment and lock in some profits feel free to humble brag.

In the comments below - and let me know about your best trade of the month before we dive into the daily market action, i want to share with you one short trade i took about two weeks ago. On june 1st, i posted a video that fully explained a seasonal short strategy for the s p 500 that took place within june on the right side of the screen are the results of the most recent trade and on the left. Side of the screen are the historic performance results for this trading strategy over the past two decades. To put it briefly, the strategy said to short the s: p 500, when the market opened on the 15th trading day of june for the year 2020, the 15th trading day of june happened to be the 19th.

When the market opened, a short position was taken at 3096.75. This particular trading strategy has various exits, but the first one that was triggered was the first profitable close, because the daily closing price was below the entry price, as in the trade was in profit because it was a short position. An exit was triggered for the next market open, which happened to be at 3040.25. This was a gain of 56.5 points.

This strategy was applied to the s p 500 futures market, which means a gain of 56.5 points, was a profit of 2825. That's a pretty sweet gain for a trade that was called out more than two weeks in advance. So that's how this strategy has performed most recently, but let's take a look at how it's done all the way back to the year 2000. because it trades once per june, it's traded a total of 21 times out of those 21 trades, 20 were profitable.

One was not so: the accuracy was just over 95 based on a trading lot size of one futures contract. The gross profit was just under fourteen thousand dollars, and the gross loss was two hundred. This means the profit factor was sixty eight point, six nine. You could have chosen to leverage this trade, however, you deem fit whatever suits your risk and reward.

As i said, this total net profit is based on one futures contract. This seasonal trade was meant to be applied to the s p 500, which means you could have also used spy or spx granted. The magnitude of the return would differ, but the overall ratios, such as the profit factor and the accuracy would remain relatively the same. This is the result of the first seasonal trading strategy.

I've released publicly, i recently uploaded two seasonal trades for the month of july, feel free to check them out. The link is in the description below. I will definitely keep you up to date when the new seasonal trades are about to take a position, and i will cover how they perform, whether that's positive or negative. It's not too often that traders call out their trades in advance.

I just thought it would be a fun way for you to follow along before i dive into the recent market action. I'm curious where you think the market's going to go for the month of july. In the comments below post your prediction, for where you think spx will be when the market closes on the last day of july, whoever's the closest i'll give a shout out in the monthly recap video all right. Let's take a look at what's going on in the market from a technical analysis standpoint on the daily time frame yesterday i pointed out these two trend lines and this one resistance line.

The fact that the bulls so strongly pushed the market above this trend line makes me think we're on the way to see 3150, which would be a gain of roughly 1.7. If you have a long position, i would definitely take some of your profits off the table. At this resistance line, if you're feeling more bullish than this area, you definitely have to watch out for this gap-fill area, and if we get above that, you could be looking at 3230.. Keep in mind that the bulls aren't out of the woods.

Yet the market has been making lower highs, which is typically bearish. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the market bounces off of this trendline resistance and reverts all the way down to 2960, which would be a fall of about four percent in trading periods of consolidation are followed by periods of expansion and vice versa. I don't think anyone can definitively tell you. The market will continue to go up, we're definitely going to plummet down, but i can tell you we will have a sizable move, which is why it's best from a risk to reward perspective to trade in between technical levels.

Instead of being blindly bullish or blindly bearish, i know many people think that the market should be going down because of various economic factors, but the market isn't always logical. In fact, the market can remain illogical much longer than you can remain solvent with all. That being said, i think there's a good chance that the market re-tests this 3150 area pay close attention to how the market reacts to this particular resistance line, because i personally think it's indicative of if we're heading back up to 3200 or coming back down to 2 900., as a quick bonus, i want to show you something cool on the 5 minute chart. First, let me turn on the rsi indicator.

As you can see, the market absolutely ripped into close there's a good chance that this had to deal with the fact that it's the end of the fiscal quarter, which means that a lot of rebalancing had to be done anyway. I want to bring your attention to this decline right here. If we look at this high and this high you'll notice something interesting, the market made a new high, but the rsi didn't it actually went down. This is called bearish divergence as a quick trading tip.

If you ever notice a mismatch like this, it could be an indication that the market's about to revert to some degree this happens because less people are buying at the new high. In this particular case, the reversion wasn't much and you probably should have gotten out of your short position when it showed late afternoon strength. But it is a nice risk to reward trade, because you could establish the short position here and just risk this little amount and set your stop loss to the recent high. Obviously, this isn't a perfect strategy in the world of trading.

There's always counter examples, but it's something you should definitely be looking for on any time frame, the more things that align with your thesis, the better the next time i see a case of bullish, divergence i'll make sure to show it to you. That brings us to where the market ended for today, as you can see, we're caught right in between a wedge of support and resistance. The wedge is getting smaller and smaller, which means the market is going to have to break one of these days, which way it breaks will give us a better idea of the next market move thanks for watching. If you enjoyed the video.

Let me know by hitting the like button, if you enjoy this type of content subscribe to the channel and don't forget to turn on your notifications, if you want me to cover a specific stock, let me know in the comments below best of luck in the markets And i'll catch you tomorrow.