Thank you thank you I Got one more foreign hello hello, hello, good morning, good morning, good morning, Welcome back. We're here backwards live Studios it is Tuesday May 9th. Still maybe potentially somewhat of a situation of being in the Calm before the storm. uh, feels like the storm maybe starting today.

Probably gonna get really underway tomorrow an hour before the Market opens. Tomorrow we get the CPI report, an hour before the Market opens on Thursday We get the PPI report and then Friday We also have the consumer sentiment report through. between now today and Friday we have various Fed members speaking and we also have a couple other important earnings that are going to be coming out. Oh, and we're also dealing with the debt limit situation, credit crunch, potential chaos crisis in the regional banking sector.

So just another run-of-the-mill day here in the market I Suppose but I think it's going to be a good one? I think uh I hope I hope I hope I Hope we're on the right side of some pretty awesome trades. You guys already know where I'm at. You already know all of my trades. I Basically just have a ton of puts spread across the entire market and we're seeing what's going on.

Uh, so we'll be talking about that more than happy to share everything that I'm doing with my positions. We have some earnings I want to get into particularly palantir lucid and Nintendo will be getting into those and also prep you up for the ones that are coming out for the remainder of the week. then I Want to talk a little bit about what's going on on the political scene, the political landscape and we could get into that. but basically it's really the debt limit.

Uh, we're gonna have the main four lawmakers of our nation meeting with Biden today starting today. Uh, we're cutting it close I mean what is it? It's May 9th and allegedly we're running out of money on June 1st and I was reading a report. Someone might want to fact check me on this, but apparently everyone that needs to be there. in terms of both the house and the Senate, there's only like seven overlapping days where everyone will be present that we need for this month, so it's really make the time's ticking.

Then we'll give a specific update of what's going on in the regional Banker banking sector. When we could talk about crypto, the bleed off in Pepe seems to at least have momentarily stopped. uh I Don't know if this is just a breather for it to turn back around and rip to the High Heavens or if it's just done Zone it'll just continue to collapse here so we can check into that and then obviously throughout the day as uh, whenever there's any breaking news or what what have you will be getting into all that. So I hope you're crushing it today I Hope you are absolutely absolutely crushing it today.

Uh I Hope you're ready for a good day I Hope you're bringing the Good Vibes Uh I'm excited I'm very, very excited. Uh, if you haven't already, make sure you destroy the like button on YouTube It helps out with the algorithm on Rumble It helps out with the rumble battle leaderboard so like and Sub on both. Uh, you never know when you're gonna get taken down specifically from YouTube and that's why we are clearly partnered up with Rumble because things are going well. I'm still really stoked about that trophy that we have the 69 420.

probably my favorite award that I've ever received in the world of content creation. I Think it's so hilarious and as many of you can see uh I was. you know my thumbnail guy was pretty busy yesterday and unfortunately he didn't have the time to create me a thumbnail. so I figured I should create a thumbnail and judging from the initial reaction right here, I actually don't even know if I need to pay my thumbnail guy anymore because a lot of people coming in here saying that this is the best thumbnail that they've seen on this side of the Mississippi and I am I'm in agreement.

it took me a lot of time. that's hours of craftsmanship digital craftsmanship. I was up all night working on it and I think something about it. It really just drives home so looks like uh, we just cut some overhead from the old Mac core streaming business stream quality looking extra sharp.

Today is probably the thumbnail though. that's hilarious. Well I hope everyone had a great evening yesterday. a great night and I hope you're ready for a great day today! We have a lot to get into and we might as well just really get rocking.

get rocking. So as of now we have, uh, pretty much we're opening up if everything holds constant over the next 25 minutes. Seems as if we're opening up at the low of yesterday. there was a low that came around 2PM and basically we got some informations um, from really fed loans.

Basically we found out that credit is tightening and then we also found that demands dropping not so good right now. Uh, then the dip was quickly bought back up like pushed it into close. And it seemingly doesn't matter now because we're pretty much opening up exactly at that low. Uh, we have Kre.

This is the overall ETF that is tracking the regional banking sector drifting down a little bit down 0.9 Wall is down 3.55 and Pac W is then down 10.5 percent. so a little bit of weakness that open. But as I always remind you the pre-market session and the post Market section typically super low volume. a lot of the times incredibly low volume.

and I'm bringing that up just to say it's a low conviction type of movement. It might be accurate and that might lead to an additional sell-off, but also it could also be quickly erased within the first whatever minute of the trading day. So I have never seen a strong trading I guess methodology or model or anything like that that is indicative of like hang on, it's green and pre-market it's going to be green for the rest of the day. If it's red and pre-market it's going to be red for the rest of the day.

The odds that I've seen surrounding that are pretty much 50 50. As in, it's not really telling of where we're going in the normal session. And that makes sense because it's so low volume. it's low conviction.

So I want to put out where we are right now? We're obviously coming down a little bit. Stock futures fall as investors await closely following inflation data. CPI Report: Wednesday PPI Report Thursday Both an hour before the market, it opens. Treasury yields dip as investors wait and Fed speakers remarks.

Inflation Data: So there are I Believe Two Fed speakers today. Hang on I did write that down I Uh, Two Fed speakers today. There's actually various speakers throughout the whole week. I don't know where my notes are on the FED speakers.

uh Tuesday 8, 30, Jefferson speaking and then at 1205 Williams is speaking. Then on Thursday Williams is speaking again and then on Friday there's a panel at 7 45 PM with various Fed members on it. So yes, we're going to be getting a handful of Fed talks throughout this week. As of now, the Dow, the S P, and the NASDAQ are all in the red to the tune of 0.5.4 and 0.3 uh, percent oil coming down a little bit and then yields all essentially unchanged.

Just to get a little bit more granular here, this is the last major week of earning season right now. We're living it. There are more earnings over the next two weeks, but in terms of like larger companies and really in particularly referring to Disney, this is kind of the last. Like the the last week of big guys reporting in this earnings season, Palantir soars on earnings beep and prediction of full year profitability.

If you've been paying attention to Pltr, you're probably freaking stoked because it is looking nice in pre-market and for good reason. Their earnings were very, very good. Um, so the headline here is they expect to be profitable through the end of the year. They're kind of catching this AI Trend and they're expanding their business, especially within the US.

Their earnings per share was five, they were expecting four, and the revenue was 525 million and the expectation was 506.. Uh, so Palantir I Personally have not been playing Pltr, but if you have, congratulations to you, especially if you've been on the bullish side. Also, congratulations to you if you've been on the bearish side of Lucid. Lucid posts a wider losses demand concerns.

Linger says it has enough cash to last to 2024 and it seems like it might be burning through it relatively quickly. Lucid I Mean honestly I have to admit their car. It's a nice looking car, but the business is not a nice looking business. The loss per share is 43 cents, the revenue was 149.4 million, and the expectation was 209.9 Million They're continually missing on Revenue they're continually missing on deliveries and they're just burning through their cash Lucid right now just to show you what's going on I believe it was down 10.

Yeah, so you can see it went from 770 to now 694 And this to show you the exact opposite. Uh, Palantir crushing it closed out the day yesterday at 774 now trading at 9 10 and that's actually up 17. so Palantir crushing it and then Lucid completely completely whiffing. and then I also believe Plug Mist on theirs as well.

just now that we're talking about EB Yeah, Plug is currently down 9.8 Clues out today at 929 currently trading at 8 30. So obviously we're seeing some of the smaller players in EV getting crushed. So that does seem to be a tone that we've seen over the past couple quarters right now of Evie just not the industry that's over performing. Definitely not like what we saw in 2021 where all EV was just ripping to the High Heavens Nintendo switch.

Sales plunge 22 and the gaming giant expects further decline. So I've never traded Nintendo for obvious reasons. uh, but apparently they're under pressure which I found surprising. Uh, I was just I Guess anecdotally thinking that the switch and the games related to Nintendo were just very, very popular I Don't know if it's just the subset of the group of people that I run with, but it seemed to be popular so I'm surprised to see that there's been such a plunge, so I just wanted to share that about Nintendo.

Just a little bit jarring for me because I would have bet the exact opposite. but I just wanted to share all of that and obviously there is more coming down the line. So after the market closes today Airbnb Red Oxy Twilio affirm upstart and win before the Market opens tomorrow Roblox Wendy's and then obviously also tomorrow we have Walt Disney which is going to be the main one of this week. I'll also be paying attention to Robin Hood the major I'm not going to be playing this I'm going to be very clear about it, but if you guys wanted to go for a play, I would actually feel pretty negative with respect to Ribbian and it's nothing to bash on Rivien, it's just rivving is very, very similar to Lucid and Lucid just completely whiffed.

so I would expect Rivin to completely whiff um Oxy. I hope they go up I'm long on Oxy I'm playing it with Warren Buffett I do have a bullish thesis on oil I'm hoping that the pain we've seen recently is the end of it. I hope we're putting in a bottom and I hope we kind of start getting going over the next one two, three quarters. so I'll be paying attention to that.

But if I had to put out a confidence play right now, I would think that Riven's gonna go the way Lucid Lucid plug both just completely whiffed I Don't think Rivien has anything going on that's going to help it be different from the rest of its cohorts for this quarter or really the past quarter in the EV sector. So once again, I'm not personally playing it I just wanted to share my thoughts with you. I'll be playing a pension paying attention to Roblox Walt Disney and then later on this week Thursday JD fiber Krispy Kreme Krispy Kreme Not really a market mover, but I think one of these days it will be a market mover. So always keeping my eye on my favorite donut producer paying attention.

that and then by the time we get to the end of the week, that's just kind of it. That's kind of it. There are more. Obviously there's more, but if we're talking about mega cab companies, Walt Disney's probably gonna be the final one.

So obviously we have to pay attention to earnings. You have to pay attention to the inflation reports. And just a little Charity on top Right now is paying attention to what our politicians are doing. Who's meeting today? I Believe we have Schumer McConnell, Jeffries and McCarthy the four major lawmakers the majority in the minority leaders in both the Senate and the house.

So that's why we have four of them meeting with Biden today, which is really kind of cutting it close. We're here Tuesday May 9th and allegedly we're running out of money on June 1st. as in what a solid three weeks, maybe some three weeks and some change something around there. Um, that's not good that this is their first Major meeting and maybe you could interpret that as a positive thing.

Maybe they're closer to a deal than the public is like really informed about and maybe they don't need that much time. Or maybe it is exactly what it looks like and they're not close to each other, they're seriously fighting, and they don't have much time to see eye to eye. Obviously for just the good of the country, the good of the financial stability, and also just like you know, we don't want to be defaulting because we're the literally the world's like Global power here. Uh, it would be a huge embarrassment.

So I don't know who's going to K first if I had to pick here in the chess match. the situation does seem worse for the Democrats just because they are in power. Obviously they have the executive branch and then they have house half of Congress right now. so it doesn't matter if if it's the Republicans timing it people, the average person who's not really plugged into politics or the economy or the stock market.

they just know who's in power and they know if things are going well or if they're not going well. I Think the average person doesn't really get caught up in the minutia. So because of that, just from a crowd psychology almost like chess standpoint. I Do believe that the Democrats are in more of a corner here and I think that they're going to end up having to concede and they're not going to pass a quote-unquote clean debt limit raise.

uh. I Think they're going to end up having to attach some things that relate to cutting of spending I Don't think the Republicans are going to get everything they want I Don't think the Democrats are going to get everything they want. That's what negotiating is. That's what compromise is I Assume they're going to meet somewhere in the middle.

Ideally, we find some positive news out about this today tomorrow the next day. I Don't know if we will, but that's something you're definitely going to want to be paying attention to. Buddy: McCarthy to meet over debt drama as markets grow anxious deadline to avoid default nearing with both sides digging in. White House opens door to separate process on fiscal talks President Joe Biden will sit down with house Speaker Kevin McCarthy for their first meeting in three months as the Two Face pressure for debt ceiling deal before an unprecedented default wreaks damage on the U.S economy.

They will be joined at the 4 Pm meeting the Oval Office on Tuesday by house Democratic Leader Jeffries Senate Majority Leader Schumer and the Senate Republican leader McConnell. But the ultimate responsibility to resolve the months-long standoff will ultimately fall in the President and the speaker. So that's where we're at. Um I Don't know if we should get like too political this early in the morning, but I Think it is important because these types of things have a huge impact on the economy and thus a massive impact on the stock market.

So uh, whether you're feeling political or not. I'm just saying. we should cover the story and understand what is isn't going on through the lens of the market because it could totally prompt volatility. It will prompt volatility.

and then when you factor in that, we also have the CPI report. We have the PPI report. We have the consumer Sentiment report. We have a regional banking crisis.

We have everything else going on. Yeah, it's gonna. it's gonna add into it. It's definitely going to add into it.

Hang on I think I'm missing some stuff I Love dubstep Moon gang. Let the banks hit the floor. Put gang or no gang, your thumbnail goes hard. Keep your money.

They want the chip, not cash if you know you know what's going on. Donovan I Appreciate it all right. Speaking of regional: Banks Uh I Want to let you know I still have pretty much all my positions I currently have spy puts I have IEP puts so the overall market and Carl icon his company and that's just because they're reporting tomorrow after the Hindenburg research article. so we have those on top of that.

I'm basically betting against what is it packed W Wall Zion FHN and then also kre the overall Regional banking sector I'm still holding those puts this. A lot of these banks, in my opinion are pretty good Banks They really are. I'm not saying that these are being uh, run extraordinarily poorly the way Svb was, but that was also my thesis for FRC. I Personally am of the opinion that the Fed, the Treasury Secretary, and our government have basically been lying to us.

How many times were we told that this really isn't an issue? The system is strong and resilient and there's nothing to worry about. I was naive enough to believe them. so I got into FRC because FRC was a legitimately good bank and anyone one who would argue otherwise I Just don't believe him I don't think they've looked into it I'm not here saying it was the best bank in the world, but I would argue it was in a it was a top-tier bank. It was a good bank.

the clients liked it. Their balance sheet wasn't that bad. It was a well-respected bank. It was a well-run bank.

They had a lot of good assets. that's why I bought it because I looked at I was like oh, I'm buying a high quality asset and once again, I was naive enough to believe in the Treasury Secretary, fed chairman Powell and also just the government in general I believed him when they said it was strong and resilient. In my mind I thought that the deposit Exodus was going to end and then I basically came to the conclusion that we've been lied to. So I realized oh wow, this could actually get way worse and hence that's why I'm playing on the other team right now and I think that there is more pain to be had because the more and more that we're told it's fine, the more and more companies like Western Alliance fight back about Financial Times they're like we're not considering that at all.

It all seems a little bit too suspect to me. I could be completely wrong I'm in no way saying anyone should be doing what I'm doing. In fact, probably some of you are taking the other side of the bet. You're like this is the low I'm going long and we'll see how it all goes.

I just want to share my opinions. This is by no means a thought that you should be like oh well, Madison is so I should do it too. No I'm listening to Yahoo Apparently I'm an amateur Trader so do what you think is appropriate I'm simply sharing all of my thoughts and opinions with you. Can I blow your mind and what's going on GTA Nation Can I blow your mind right now I was watching more and more of that.

If you guys, uh, don't get that joke though we were listening to The Tick Tock Account some guy Mark Absolutely hilarious. He's a guy. It's just satirical. uh, he's kind of making fun of the whole podcast bro.

I Guess ecosystem and the funniest thing to me was if you look on the YouTube comments, there was a lot of people trying to explain the math of the two percent money situation. like the joke of just split it up and you could get two percent, four percent, six percent. and they were trying to explain the math to me and they they didn't get it was a joke at all. so so it honestly made it even more funny.

But anyway, we could talk about that in a second. Let's uh I Just thought this was a bit interesting. Regional Banks will cut bonuses while big firms raise in 10. Do they mean in this incentive pay? I Don't know if that was a typo there or I'm just dumb.

Bonus season on Wall Street is projected to be The Tale of Two Cities with bankers at Regional U.S lenders hurt by smaller in intent incentive pools while year-end compensation larger firms is expected to rise by double digits. so I just want to point out the Stark nature here of the big Banks the banks that are going to end up really absorbing a lot of these small and medium Banks And then we're going to get closer and closer to an oligopoly. You guys have all probably seen the graphs of how if you rewind far enough. we had over 10 000 Banks and it's just been coming down and down and down and now we're at 4 000.

We're probably going to see another falloff. We're definitely getting uh, this weird consolidation of power that I just don't think is going to be a good thing in the long run because when you get closer to an oligopoly and Monopoly whatever, a duopoly? Uh, in this case, we're gonna have four. I'm sure there's a special word when you have four that are controlling the whole thing, but it's going to be JPM Wells City and uh, Bank of America I Don't think this is going to be happening like tomorrow, but we clearly are seeing a drop off. and I think whenever we see things like that, you get a concentration of power, but then also that means you have concentration of risk and also just for the client you are getting, there's less competition involved, so I think it's going to end up being worse for the client.

so I don't like it. but as of now the bigger banks are doing better and the medium and smaller Regional Banks especially are doing worse. And that's why when you see the smaller and medium-sized Banks they're losing their bonuses to the tune is 20. And then on the flip side they are the big banks are getting a 20 increase.

We have the Haves and the have-nots big banks are doing great. Small banks are suffering. They definitively are. What time is it? we have time, uh, retail.

Traders are making risky bets on Regional Bank Stocks turmoil in the financial sector is luring in small-time investors looking to make a quick profit. Well, I Have to admit I'm one of those people they brought me in with FRC and I got my teeth kicked in and I definitely was very, uh, transparent with all of you about that. Now on the flip side, I'm attempting to make some of it back I've been able to work my way up a little bit and things thus far obviously they could be better, but I still think that it does favor really my position and my thesis on it. And what's interesting in this article that they wrote up in Bloomberg is they kind of interviewed some retail Traders A lot like some of these are going along, they're like hey, if they I almost see the same mindset that I had.

things have dipped a lot. We think things are good, they stabilize, we're going long, and they're talking about a lot of people getting into some calls. And then there was one final person who was kind of in my opinion right here. The 30 year old professional chef lost 73 000 on First Republic.

But now buying puts on Pac West and Western Alliance and slowly making some money back looks like his total bet uh up 9k uh, 18 and 7. So he's betting 25k uh, betting 25k events against Pacques and Western Alliance to make the money back uh, 73k that he lost on FRC So it seems like retail's a little bit split I suppose at least based on this article and I Would love to know where you guys are at our community here. Uh, are you guys not paying attention to Regional Banks at all? Or are you buying the dip or are you basically just shorting it to zero? Um, do we have it with respect to Regional Banks My question is are you bullish or are you bearish? Are you bullish or are you bearish when it comes to Regional Banks The Big Short Holding some puts shorting bear shorting tulips best thumbnail ever short buy the dip short bearish on banks Watching the show Bear Bear haven't had hot chocolate in Forever It's yummy all right. I Appreciate that input Bear all day Giga short myself to Giga Loss 330 in FRC Bearish holding carry puts neutral all right.

Well, it feels like more of you are leaning. Bears There are a couple bulls and honestly I have no. Crucible I Don't know how this will play out, but that's why I bought time I figure I'm thinking that things are bad, but hey, maybe I'm reading the situation wrong because I completely read the FRC situation wrong. That's totally totally possible I just I I Just don't see how things end well here.

I I Really don't I Really really don't what I want you to know oop I did not want to close that out I wanted to come back to that video I want you to know that for today. Tuesday The seasonal bias is slightly bearish, not absurdly bearish. It's slightly bearish and I'll let the cat out of the bag. This is literally Monday Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday of this week they're all leaning bearish and then Friday is notably bullish.

That is the seasonality of this week. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday all individually leaning bearish. Friday is notably bullish. so a switch up at the end of the week, and obviously with seasonality, that's no guarantee.

The Bulls won this day 44 of the time as in the Bears won it 56 percent of the time. The profit factor is 0.82 and the bias. obviously you could see from the equity curve here. buying an open selling at close on the overall.

Market The S P 500 I was testing it on the earnings or the excuse me the Futures Market Uh I I Just like doing my back testing on that more than the Spy. It's just a better data set in my opinion. but anyway. um, kind of choppy, trended down, popped up and now giving it back.

So leaning bearish. Maybe a little bit more bearish than what we we saw yesterday. Once again, this is not gospel. I Just want you to know the seasonal influences of today and then the five things you should know before the Bell goes today.

Tuesday May 9th Slow going. Uh, quiet. Things were quiet yesterday. I Mean you could even see that from the daily chart on the Spy here.

We didn't really go anywhere. It's this bar setup is referred to as an inside bar. The high was lower than Friday's high and then the low was higher than Friday's low. as in it was inside the previous bar.

As in, there was no Trend. There was no strong bullish conviction. There was no strong bearish conviction. And in all reality, it could happen again today.

Uh, there's no major major announcements. Of course there are some fan members speaking. One's already probably done speaking because he started an hour ago. We have another one at noon o'clock Maybe Maybe people are going to be apprehensive about the inflation report? Uh, coming out tomorrow.

CPI Report Consumer Price Index Coming out at 8 30 a.m ET an hour before the Market opens. so maybe people want to fade that they're like we're going to go risk off and we're gonna wait till the report comes out. That's potential. But I think whatever fireworks there are today, there's going to be more for the remainder of the week.

Monday and Tuesday on a relative basis will be more quiet than the rest of it. I'm not really going to speak on the magnitude of it because we could still have a decent amount of fireworks. I'm just of the mindset that they're beginning to be more volatility, more chaos, more whipsaw for the remainder of the week. So whatever we see today, I Think it's just going to end up ramping up from here.

Another batch of earnings. Uh, they're showing Rivi and we went over most of them. Palantir did really well. Fox actually did pretty well.

Uh, I'll look into Nikola I don't remember the numbers off the top of my head Lucid Completely missed and I think Riven's gonna end up also missing Biden In the big four they are meeting today, they're going to be talking about the debt limit ceiling and we're gonna see how that goes. Uh, Saudi Aramco profit slides. Um, that is important I have a little bit to say on oil later on in the show? Not so. Super Nintendo As I went over, I Was actually very, very surprised that there's been such a stark drop demand for the Nintendo switch, so maybe something to pay attention to I Honestly, I wasn't even I'm not trading or anything like that I just find it surprising I thought it was way more popular than I Guess it wasn't the most recent quarter, so that's pretty much your prep for today.

Let me get back over to this. Uh, we'll switch it to the one minute so we can watch the market open, blah blah blah. What do you guys want on the screen today at the top left I think should remain the overall Market The bottom left I think should be the banking sector. Um, but we could pack West and wall themselves If you guys want something else up I Mean I Know Palantir has been having a great morning.

Oh, it's getting even better now. it's up 20. What do you guys want in the lower right? here? Is there something uh, in particular you would love to see I mean we could look at Lucid dying loose it down 10 Um IEP We could see what icon's up to that's actually up a little bit. That's not fun to see.

We could see what's going on with the dollar, the dollar chilling just below 102.. very quickly Crypto Bitcoin holding on to 27.7 000 and it looks like at least momentarily looks like the Pepe sell-off has like paused. Uh I Don't know if it's going to end up vomiting more or this could be the turnaround. Time will tell, but it's trading at 19 almost 20.

Right now we have Bitcoin a little bit of a pop uh, Bbwi for one minute FRC Google PayPal PayPal is another one that did not have the best guidance and now they're down 7.9 I tweeted about PayPal yesterday and I was obviously being facetious. a little tongue-in-cheek of surprise surprise. Apparently when you CLI treat your clientele like crap, your stock ends up falling dingy, ding, ding, ding The casino is open. Best of luck to all.

Play responsibly. if not, at least have some fun. You know that's what this is all about. It's all about having a little bit of fun.

All right. I Do want you to know on the spy? Uh, obviously it's not good that it broke below yesterday's low, but yesterday was an inside day. The major thing I'm going to be watching here. Uh, you can kind of see a little bit of some shelf action between 410 and 4 10 25.

so that's the first major support I'd be looking for reaction at if that does not hold, then I'm watching 408 25. So first region of support 410 to 4 10 25. about roughly 75 cents to a dollar below where we're at right now. If that does not hold I am then watching 408 25 which would obviously be two dollars below that.

So that's my downside of what I'm going to be watching out of the game if it starts to turn. we could go over some upside targets. Uh, looks like Palantir continue. Oh no.

Palantir giving a little bit back of it. but PayPal what was that? What was the old brother? What are my algorithms doing? Uh, my algorithm a NASDAQ just closed a short position for loss and also then just went short on ES Uh, so it went short here. so I'll be watching obviously very closely now. Would love for Kre to keep coming down.

Would love for Kre to keep coming down the major levels if you're watching the banking sector. at least the levels I care about I have the alert here at 37. uh, mid-range Target 36.50 but I really care about the breakdown at 35.50 So once again, we're trading at 3720 I Want to see it below 37? That's an important one. 36.50 a little less important, very important is 35.50 And then here, let's throw up the Futures Market I Just want to see how things are or aren't trending today.

Uh, all the moving averages are starting to bend back over. red, white and blue upside down. distressed American flag. You can see my targets that I have on the Futures Market we just sliced through 4134 I will be watching this 4127 4127 4125 Big support I'm expecting a lot of bids to be coming in there if it does not hold.

I'm then looking for a puke down to four thousand, one hundred and eighteen ish. Remember, none of these are like hardcore specific. like I wouldn't be betting the farm on exactly hitting that level. They're just roughly regions that I think there could be an interesting play out.

an interesting level of liquidity that people might or might not be paying attention to so time will tell Palantir giving back some of the gains but still up. Oop kre Uh, now battling it out at 37 the first Target remember the next Target is 36.50 kre is down 1.3 pack W's down 6.7 percent, wall down 6.22 percent FHN is down three point two, seven percent and Zion is down one percent wall. What were my particular Targets on wall I thought I had this drawn out a little bit better. just a little bit better.

This is making it messy Obviously would love her to crack this. uh, pre-market low 2431. We're currently trading at 25.74 and then after 24 31. Uh I have some support from yesterday or at least an alert that I care about at 22.50 and in reality I want this thing sub 18.

the reason I care about 18 is because that's the value that Wall gapped up to after they disavowed the financial times. Basically their article saying that they are exploring like Star strategic Partnerships and Alternatives yada yada. The reason that matter, that level matters to me is wall. Western Airlines traded all the way down to 11.

after it was reported that they were doing that from the financial times, then it got halted and then basically Western Line said hey, we're actually going to sue you that's not true at all and it gapped back up to 18 and it didn't really come below that. So I think all the people in the short term who went long on Western Alliance or watching that level because that's probably the level they got in at or 18 or even higher. So my point is is, if it comes below 18, there's a good chance that more people the recent Bulls the recent Longs could be feeling pressure at those levels because I know that they're going to end up being underwater. Obviously that's a far ways away.

I mean we're trading at 25.50 right now. so we're talking about seven dollars, Seven dollars and some change. so we might not be getting there today. We might not be getting there ever.

Um, so I'll obviously remind you all of it if we if I feel like that's becoming more of a reality. but I think there's uh, a chance of breaking that level and then there being an acceleration below it kre catching itself at that first support that we had 3705. Uh, Palantir giving back those gains. Maybe there's just short-term traders who caught the huge pop-up and are more than happy to lock in those gains.

What else is going on? IEP Coming down a little bit. remember IEP Icon Enterprises Uh, just recently got smacked. Absolutely smacked by a short report from Hindenburg research. They were supposed to report their earnings on Friday of last week, but they kicked the can down to the road till tomorrow before the Market opens.

So Wednesday morning before the Market opens, we will be hearing from Icon and the leadership team. and yada yada yada. so I'll be paying attention to that. I saw some weakness yesterday when it actually broke below 36.50 so I hopped on it.

but I just want you to know that it is very much a binary trade. They're either gonna in their earnings, say something that's positive and they reassure investors and we'll see a big pop-up or they're gonna say something that makes the Bulls and the shorts and people like probably Bill Ackman bit more happy and it's going to end up cratering. So with this, understand that it's just a binary event. you are at the roulette wheel.

you are flipping a quarter. IEP I I got in I Guess because it's a little bit of a technical breakdown, but I'm already playing with The House's money because when the research article first came out, I made a killing that day. So I'm not really uh, too too over leveraged on that particular one. PayPal is still bleeding off down almost 10 on the day.

Microsoft is the only green one on the play. Microsoft is up 0.22 Everything else I'm seeing is red rum holding. Well, almost at 970. let's go through these: How are the cues looking? The cues are just going flat.

Uh, so Tech seems to be holding the day up and that probably makes sense. Yeah, Apple's only down 59 cents. Uh, Tesla is down two dollars and fifty cents runs at 9.70. Interesting.

Uh, thus far feels like just more of a holding pattern. The tech sector seems to be trying to push things up. The Spy opened up just above 411. we're at 411 right now, sold a little bit harder, but then came up here kre bouncing I'm not liking that obviously.

Uh, if you're a Kre bull, you're going to be liking it. pack West looks like it bounced off that 525 level. Yeah, and pre-market it got down there. but I'm hoping hoping that they that gets smacked wall not really doing much FHN not really doing much Zion actually trading upwards a little bit so no clear Trend no clear Trend quite on.

oh Tech maybe just a little bit smack Tech a little bit smacked Boeing Boeing Just secured a new order with I think Ryanair So Boeing it was announced early this morning. Big big order from Ryanair Obviously the fact that they got such a large contract, that's why Bowen's up right now up 3.3 percent. Be careful with it. There's a reason in the market they have the same buy the room or sell the news.

The news is now officially out. There's it's going to be very difficult for Boeing which is a mega cap huge company to have any extreme over performance. If the market is selling the I wouldn't be going like balls to the wall bullish on Boeing after the announcement's already released and if the Market's taking a hit, it would be one thing if the market is screaming today, but the news is already disseminated like it's already out there. We already like have the information.

so uh, be careful with that. I mean Boeing It's a good company I It's essentially like a duopoly between uh Boeing and what is it? Airbus Like they're essentially the two major aircraft creators in the world. Uh so I Think Bones a legitimately good company, but I'm not one who like actively trades it. If I were to mess with Bowen I would just put it in my long-term account and kind of forget about it.

Check out: Mara Mara is a Bitcoin mining company. What's it doing? Uh, up 3.6 So I'm a little bit biased against Mara Riot Hut any of these Bitcoin mining companies because they're going to be directly related to Bitcoin. So why wouldn't I just go get Bitcoin. To me, it doesn't really make sense to get in any way involved with Riot Mara any of those because they're going to be directly tied to Bitcoin.

so your thesis either has to be positive or negative on Bitcoin. But then on top of it, you have to consider the inter-business competition between Riot Mara Hut and the the those. So for me, if I had it like you're complicating the thesis you have by talking about ones that are trading on the equities Market because they're going to be inherently related right to Bitcoin. but then on top of that, you have to try to figure out the inter business competition.

So because of that, like I just wouldn't play it. It feels like it's just easier. It feels like it's an easier shot to just directly play. Bitcoin All right, what are we doing? The spy caught itself for a second time.

Two, uh, two bounces, four, ten, seventy. Um. The Q's trying to catch themselves PayPal is just continuing to bleed PayPal is now down 10.38 Uh, the Q's trying to fight their way back. Uh, Microsoft seems to be the main Tech play, Leading things to the upside: Apple not doing too bad I mean a pop came down just kind of mid-range right now Tesla popped came down a little bit Amazon flat.

maybe looking a little bit weak right now Boeing's obviously having a good day. how's Lockheed Martin doing? Lockheed Martin down a little bit. only 0.17 so like really, no major movement there unlocking Martin what else? What else? What else? Oils trading at 72.43 so oil bouncing a little bit holding the 70s I don't know what's going on with the government and the Strategic petroleum Reserve they were allegedly buying between like 67.72 but I don't know if they even have the money to do that right now. You're right.

Just buy Bitcoin uh I said the same thing. shout out Donovan yeah I mean I'm not really against Mara a riot. It's just because like I think that they could do well because I like Bitcoin I'm I'm I support Bitcoin but I just I don't really know much about the business competition between that whole group and I I don't know I I want to find the easy trades I don't want to make it extraordinarily difficult? Maybe if I were to trade Mara Riot Hut or that group, it would probably be if I think the business is gonna fail for whatever reason. like if I find out that they've been lying or if they're just not running the business well I could see myself shorting it or buying puts if I thought there was like clear business weakness.

but if I'm gonna be bullish I'm just gonna go buy Bitcoin and I do like Bitcoin I Do uh. All right kre coming back down to ideally it's intraday low Pac West uh flat wall looking a little bit more weak FHN looking a little bit more weak Zion uh mid mid-range spy bouncing. Uh, look at this. we've how many.

We're 12 minutes into the day and we're pretty much at our opening value of 411 and some change. Uh, double bottom. Kind of a double bottom right here. Just the in the very short time frame as in I'm on the one minute chart, we're seeing some strength, but let's see if it ends up holding uh gold.

Gold's been doing pretty well lately. Uh, I mean if you look at just it's Trend Over the past couple weeks past couple months, Uh, we didn't hit officially an all-time high, but we got pretty freaking close. Oops, we got pretty freaking close. All right.

Let's see if this pump in the Spy actually holds or if that was just the brutal bull trap of the day. Remember, we're not even 15 minutes into the day, so let's just calm, cool, collected. Don't feel pressure that you have to chase. like Generally, if you just wait a little bit, you can get an even better price.

Definitely do not feel pressure and even if you missed something, even if that was the perfect moment to get in and you did end up missing it, you're gonna be fine. They're like there's gonna be always other trades. hey match I Remember when you used to give useful information, you still do. but I remember when you used to too.

I Appreciate that. I Think I might be starting my career pretty soon as a professional thumbnail designer. I Just something about it. the canvas which I'm not going to tell you which canvas I created that thumbnail on.

Um, it's a very high-end Tech piece of software, but uh, the canvas just spoke to me. In all reality, when I was creating that thumbnail I was like three, four, maybe four and a half hours in and it was just honestly. um, it was a symphony. a cacophony of just the canvas telling me exactly what it needed to bring it to life.

Uh, it was. It was truly beautiful. Oh no, that's Chaos Job hashtag stand with Chaos Paint for sure. Oh, I was painting I was painting.

you guys. It's just I'm actually surprised that the Louvre hasn't already reached out to me to try to see if they can acquire the piece to get it hung up in their Museum I I Really? I am. maybe I don't know. Maybe my phone is blocking international calls, but like even here in New York I'm surprised a couple museums.

more of them, more like reputable, well-known museums. Uh, the art displays, the galleries I haven't reached out. Maybe maybe that crowd gets up late? Maybe they're more of the kind of group that does meetings. like, maybe afternoon.

Maybe they're kind of like, oh, let's grab a coffee for lunch type of a group and that's when they're gonna start uh, sending me emails. But as of now, uh, no, no offers. but I I think um, there's probably a good chance that this is going to be printed out by a good like eight by eleven piece of paper. We'll do it landscape and I'll throw it in a shadow box and then we'll get that into a museum.

The backwards K tied it all together. Yeah, so the backwards today was K was actually my artistic rendition of the backwards way that the FED is currently viewing the regional banking sector, but not just to pick on the FED I Also believe the Treasury Secretary and the government as a whole. Uh, it was my artistic stance of what's currently going on in the market. and I think that really came through on said canvas.

I think that message is strong and clear. Um, but I'm through the medium that is Art I'm using my voice to basically stand up against the government. Um, the early I Guess critics are actually thinking that this could cause a legitimate Financial Revolution And that's just not me. I'm not here.

uh, tooting my own horn. Um, that's just what the early critic opinions are saying that this might be. Uh, the beginning of the end in terms of our whole capitalistic nature. really, the financial system.

Um, and once again, that's not me saying it like whatsoever. I'm just letting you know what the early art critics are saying about the piece looks like. Janet Yellen through the thumbnail. Oh, everyone's hating on smeagle.

Everyone's hating on Schmiegel. I'm about to blow James Hall Probably shouldn't be near your keyboard, man. Be careful. be careful.

Uh, Novovax to cut about 25 of the global Workforce and backs up 38. Uh, shout out to Profit for always posting some of that breaking news. There are just they just taking a page out of like big text. Playbook Right now they're like, all right, they just fire everyone in the stock.

price goes up infinitely. Does anyone like Yellen I Don't know if Yellen likes yelling if we're being honest. Wasn't that the whole point of the meme, stock movement and money? Uh, maybe. but hey, you know what they say.

The second second time is the charm. see back then the the big thing that the meme movement was missing was I just wasn't a highly paid professional artist at the time. I was honing my craft a couple years ago, but after years and years of grinding it out on Microsoft Paint I'm now at this like clearly elevated level and that is is. It's unfortunate.

sometimes you are at the right place and it's just the wrong time and it was the wrong time. I Just I wasn't able to produce the art that really could bring this entire cultural phenomena the cultural Wildfire to the next level. Did anyone pick up on how I used um, a pallet of white and black? Um, as many of you are guessing, that is because I'm honing in on the duality of man I'm honing in on the Bulls and the Bears The Haves the have-nots the 99 and the one. uh, the color palette was intentionally picked I Also didn't want to offend anyone that was colorblind on top of that.

So there we are. Revolutionary. Still using grants. Uh, is there an online publication that shows all the FED meetings announcements? Yeah, uh.

they have their own government website and it's all there. Why did you choose to make him smiling and not frowning? Because that's me and I met and I wanted to bring Good Vibes Um. So once again, another clear artistic decision here was I made myself smaller than everything else going on and that just represents of how in the grand scheme of things we're all just. we're all just a piece of sand, you know? Uh, once again, another.

I you guys have an eye I Feel like I'm actually speaking with some art critics in here, but very very astute I for picking that out. But yes, I'm smiling because I'm bringing a little bit of Good Vibes but yet relative to the whole system. I'm a small piece of it. Thank you thank you So dumb I should try to get it into an art gallery and see if I could.

just all the people there. All right. Kre looks like it's selling the Spy did pop. Uh, looking a little weak now, especially with a little bit of the sell-off going on in Regional Banking that can't be boating? Well, uh, by any means.

let me bring up the Futures Market real quick. All right, there's spy. We'll do the daily. we don't need this.

It becomes too messy as of now. on the daily chart, not much is going on. Yes, you could argue that we broke down below yesterday's low typically a bearish sign, but also I would argue yesterday was pretty much a nothing day because it was an inside day. the high was within the bar and the low was within the bar.

So yesterday wasn't a trending day, so we just kind of broke down from a non-trending day. Basically, what I'm saying trying to really say is let me know when we get above the high of Friday or below the low of Friday if we go above the high I'm this like I can make this so easy above the higher Friday I'm looking at the Gap field of 4 15 27 below the low on Friday I'm looking at the Gap filter 407.27. it's honestly easy peasy lemon squeezies on IEP Uh, obviously I'm looking for the breakdown similar situation. it's an inside Day so I'd much prefer that it comes below 33.

34 is a very important level from historically in IEPs chart, but even with that I don't think this is really a technical setup of the play. This is going to be binary based on what is and said early tomorrow morning in the earnings call on Kre, we are breaking down. In fact, we got a Gapville. Uh, at 3705 we are below the low of the previous two days.

There is some support at 36.50 a little at 36, but I would argue. Basically, if you see it on the two or the four hour chart I would argue that things are going to get really amped up at 36 and then even more at 35.50 Yes, there was a wick early morning on Thursday below that, but there's major support at 36 and then 35.50 That's what I'm watching for today. That is what. I'm praying to the market overlords that they just shove the regional banking sector below.

It's messed up. It's morally corrupt of me to want this to happen, but I want it to happen because that's what I bet on happening I mean making this bet me make not making this bet is not going to be the difference of regional Banks going under or not. So if I'm not going to be impactful in any way, I might as well just make some money on it and then a lot of you might be thinking wow, that's a really messed up way to justify this in your own mind. and I'm just saying give Me a breather.

It's how I sleep at night I'm not saying it's philosophically accurate or appropriate, or really morally just in any way. it's just what I say in my mind many, many times in between fits of crying and yelling and just honestly feverishly shaking before I go to bed at night. It's just what I'm doing right now. It's my process.

Pacwest Looking for a breakdown of the intraday low at 503 5 is an important level and then obviously so is four. so we're in pack. West we're basically just watching the dollar increments on wall I'm looking for 2431 similar to Pac West that's the intraday low and then from there I'd be playing a little bit of closer attention to 20 flat. but I really care about 18.

FHN is a little bit of a different situation. This is a Regional Bank but this is the one that was supposed to be merged into TD And then early morning on Thursday the 4th, it was announced that TD was backing out of the deal. So similar thesis, but this one has a little bit of a different flavor on it. and then Zion uh, this was just a tertiary bet of another bank that was taking a big percentage hit.

My thesis is that the people using the bank could become scared and if they take their money out, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. So um, that's the one on that I'm probably least confident in. but I just want to let you know I am paying attention to it. Uh, radar.

All right, All right, All right. Microsoft Doing phenomenal. probably because Pelosi both Nancy and Paul are long on it. They double down.

they triple down, they quadruple down. They do whatever they can, and it is paying off big time because Microsoft is apparently ripping back to its all-time high at 3 45 currently trading at 309 mind and if the pelosities do something, it's essentially pure money. I Don't know, but Microsoft's looking good, not giving up Apple Running into this trend line: uh, there's Massive Resistance at 176. there's also clear resistance at this upside trend line: I Think Apple's gonna have a tough time getting above the 174 to 177 region on first attempt.

If anything, if it were to break through I Think it would have to go up. Come down, build a base, get some accumulation, and then go from there. I Don't think the break's going to be happening anytime soon unless we get really good numbers out of the CPI and PPI report over the next two days. Tesla I Thought it was about to go for a gap film I mean we saw some strength on Friday it gapped up I Really really thought Tesla was about to get this Gap bill at 177.65 But then the fact that the EV sector is looking so weak right now Lucid completely missed on their earnings down 6.55 It is fighting back almost getting a gap film plug down nine point six percent.

Rivian is down 3.6 The whole EV sector is under a little bit of pressure right now, so I maybe tell I don't know. uh and we just broke below yesterday's low that's looking a little toppy I don't know I'm still a fan of these upside: Gap film plays, but Tesla's might be postponed a little bit I Do want you to know that there is a downside Gap they'll play to 146.41 and just to make it a bit more clear, I will make that one red and then I'll make this one green. Just so we know that their Gap fills try to be a little bit more consistent as to not confuse anyone. So we have that Rums crushing it back up to its trend line.

Rum will be reporting earnings a week from yesterday, a week from yesterday. So I believe what is it? The what's that date Monday May 15th Rumble will be reporting earnings after the market closes. Um, this right here. This selloff was from the Culper report.

There was a short report uh I myself was able to disprove some of the stuff and then other things I just don't have the information about. uh, obviously the markets are putting a little bit of pressure on this short report. The shorts are kind of getting screwed even if the shorts got in at 9 25. Or let's just say they built it in here somewhere between 925 and 950.

Those shorts are now underwater and this is kind of interesting because it could lead to somewhat of a quasi short squeeze because the utilization is fully maxed out. utilization fully maxed out 100 uh, days to cover 10.27 cost of Ro 63 Right now, the live short interest yesterday was around 250. Today the average is 222, so still very, very high. and the one thing I wanted to point out here is estimated short interest of the free float 9.5 I Think that's actually underreported because right now so many of the people within the company own a large percentage of it and I don't know if that's being properly accounted for on or text and that's the whole argument of closely held shares versus publicly traded shares.

I Think that that's just a ratio thing. The main thing you have to know is all the shares that could go out on loan to potentially be shorted or out on loan to potentially be shorted so the number could be higher could be lower I Just really wanted to point out the high cost of borrow I Wanted to point out the high utilization. but most importantly and the main thing you need. the main main main thing you need in any Squeeze Play is positive price, action and run over the past week is up 36.

So any of these recent shorts like within here there I Mean by the time it gets above 10.50 anyone that's been short from November mid-november till now are gonna start being underwater. That's why I think this 10.50 and 11 level are so important. because literally from mid-november until now, anyone who shorted it would definitively be underwater. Where's my? Texas Roadhouse update and interview Also Thoughts on J-e-p-i You know, one of these days we're going to be able to.

Oh wait, the market just popped out of nowhere. was something announced one of these days I'll be able to put together a Texas Roadhouse interview? Uh, it'll happen Texas Roadhouse Bouncing off of it, it's clear support of 107. I Still don't own it but I very very much want to. Would you say J-e-p-i-j-e-p-i-j-e-p-i JP Morgan Equity peremium income ETF Investment trusts, mutual funds I don't know what JP put into this um I would have to go and look what's in the ETF it doesn't really seem like it moves much.

um I do like JPM Honestly, when this is all behind us I think JPM is going to be the major winner of this whole banking situation. Um, but really I find Finance stocks most of the time unless we have like a crazy event such as what's going on right now I find a lot of the times that they're just incredibly boring. Like really I find most of the time they just are barely moving. It's boring I Usually get better volatility in other sectors such as Tech so even with that like maybe if JPM gets beat up I'd be willing to do some sort of dip Buy on it.

maybe I'd put that in my long-term account and see if I could ride it out for whatever 10 20. But other than that, I'm not a person who really enjoys. especially like if you just remember this debacle of 2008 2009. Uh, portfolios that are heavy, heavy, heavy in finance? I don't like those as portfolios I I Just think that they have other things going on um, like or there's other things going on in the market that I think it's better for Capital Efficiency I think it's better for risk to reward and I think it's just more exciting to pay attention to.

So I just don't really allocate much of my portfolio unless I'm doing active trades such as like right now of what's going on in the world of Kre and Pacwest and Western Alliance But other than that, yeah, some of the bigger Banks I think there's decent arguments to maybe have a decent, mean reversion hold on it like I don't think that's the most Wild Thing but I don't know I think there's just better things to do Matt doesn't do much dividend stocks I mean I talk about the two main ones. Microsoft and Texas Roadhouse Uh, Jepi should be in Roth Not taxable JPI Roth Okay, so it looks like that's just an income. It's a dividend one. Is that? Is that? what JPI is? Is it a dividend? ETF It sounds like it is in judging off its name, a dividend paying.

ETF I mean that is definitively something you just kind of Park your money into and you're best just to forget about it. I mean the the game of dividend investing. It's long term. There's a reason.

not only do I like Microsoft that's my main dividend play, but it's in my retirement account because I don't want to watch its day-to-day movement. I Just know I'm gonna be in it forever. Microsoft in my opinion, is a great company. It's a great stock and it has a pretty decent dividend.

that's my same rough opinion on UNH Um, there are other good dividend paying ones right now. I am bullish on oil. A lot of oil companies do also have great dividends, so I don't I'm by no means some like hardcore dividend investor thinking that it's like the only thing you should do I think dividend investing should be an aspect of your report folio. but in terms of like content creation and live streaming a lot of times when you're doing a dividend, you're like cool.

All right. let's see if this pays off in 10 years. Um so I Feel like that's why we end up not talking about it much. But yeah, I do have some dividends in my long-term account.

Um, it sounds like that. ETF Obviously you're having a bunch of JP like Morgan analysts pick the things in it for me I just kind of go through and I pick the stocks that I think I really like over the long term. Uh, but I'll look into the ETF and see what's in it. Maybe it's an awesome one? Um, but I don't want you guys to think that I'm like some sort of like hardcore dividend like expert and I love it, love it, love it.

I Think they're great I Think you just pick the right companies that you want long term with decent dividends and you just set it and forget it. Yeah, Covered call: ETF Wait, it's a covered call ETF the main two Roadhouse and Microsoft That's where it's at. Microsoft for the money Roadhouse for the fields oxy earnings today they're buying back shares from Buffett Wait, where'd you hear that? Pepe How's Pepe doing? Maybe turning back to the South Pepe Got pretty crushed at 44 all the way down to 19. when as low as 15.

A little bit of a bounce now. kind of going sideways. Um, this is what happens with memes folk. It could totally come back or it could also plummet to zero because remember, it is a meme.

It is a meme. It is a meme. It is a meme. Uh, how's Tesla doing today? Not really doing much? Rum's having a great day.

Maybe we should be throwing rum up there. How many of you have rub I Have rum once again. Another thing that's just in my long-term account: I Do not actively trade rum Rum for me. My position is, hey, maybe in the long run, Rum will be a like, legitimate pound-for-pound competitor against Twitch Youtube kick the whole industry.

Uh, so long term I Do not actively trade it if it were to squeeze to some ungodly level. Yeah, I would lock in my gains, let it come back down, and then I would just reinvest. But as of now, it's just in my long-term account. I'm starting to notice some weakness in the banking sector kre coming up to my first Target of 36.50 right here.

We might be hearing that alert pretty soon. Spy. Almost like a fake out bull trap type of a scenario. Uh, run here and game data I had Jepi but I sold it.

It's dividend payout to cost to buy a blown away by Q, Y L, D, and CLM Okay, so uh, the fact that you're grouping with those this sounds like just like a quintessential dividend. ETF So I'm assuming in the ETF it's just your most prominent dividend paying companies and they just wait it for you properly. If I had a guess, if I had a guess I'm looking for pack West to crack 525, followed by five and then I'm looking for wall to crack. What was it? There was some Target in the 24s but I don't know we could look into it if it ends up making a new intraday low FHN I need that lower Zion I need that lower I just need more pressure I need things just to go bust I know it's messed up I'm fully aware of that, but it's still what I want to happen? No sense in line to you beautiful folks about it I Want chaos I want Calamity I want catastrophe I just got back from Colombia I drank so much rum there I p