Money make money Money Money Money makes the world go I'm the talk around town Remy Gave me the sound I Need thatr on theet I Need thatr on the money makes the world go round I'mma talk around town Remy Gave me the Sound Pocket I Need thatr on theet I Need thatr on the survival of the Finish You can sink or swim I've been broke I ain't never going back again I Need some C notes some cheddar and a stack of ends I Need a bowl of dough I Don't need no Facebook friends I Need a pack of them snaps, a handful of fetting WS and rubber band on my green bags. look dog, don't be playing with my paper I Need every red scent. that's why I brought my little scraper you don't know me homie I Rob My own neighbor with a clock around my neck with a style that's so flavor FL Give me the lot is just the understatement. I'm about to take your bank and put it in my basement.

Make money money Make money money money make money Mone Mone Make Mone money, say take Mone Mone Take Mone Money take takeone Money makes the world go round I'm the talk around town Remy Gave me the sound F pocket I Need thatr on the fet I Need thatr on the money makes the world go round I'mma talk around town Remy Gave me the sound Pockets I Need thatr on the F Pockets I need thatr on the uh, the root of all leave. Agree with that. It's hard to do when you riding around with 10 racks Golden Archer St Louis I'm the big Ma St Petersburg Russia you can find it on the map I'm so cold I could spit the snow. that's why they call me nitro with the nicest flow on the real man I Hate it when they call me bro.

It's getting on my nerves like these bills and these haters. a grown man with a loaf of bread I keep a stack of benjes right under my bed. Check it. My shoe box is the stash spot I Used to keep my scratch at my dad's house I Got a deadline so I need the cake I need a plan so my duck is going to try to escape.

Yeah I'm always looking for the currency. a large amount. call it a pretty penny. Money makes the world go round I'm the talk around town Remy gave me the Sound Pocket I need thatr on the pocket I need thatr on the money makes the world go round I'mma talk around town Remy Gave me the sound I need that on the I need that on the you got A5 Bill Put your hands up.

You got a $10 bill. Put your hands up. You got a $20 bill. Put your hands up.

You got a $50 bill. Put your hands up holl. Money makes the world go I'm the talk around town Remy Gave me the sound I need that on a I Need the Skrill on theer take Oh brother oh brother oh brother oh brother. What's up duties Hola Miss Amigos It is what is today Monday October 30th The Old Mischief Night for those those of you who had too much time on your hands as a child and potentially too much toilet paper as well.

Now for those of you who have no idea what Miss Shift night is, well, that sucks to be you. Uh, because you definitely missed out on some formative experiences in your Youth And that means tomorrow is good old Halloween Good old Halloween day. So I think it'll be pretty pretty exciting. Uh folks, hope you had a good one it is.

Monday So of course we have to kind of recap a little bit of last week, prep up a little bit for this week and then dive into today specifically. But before we do that, I Hope your football team wins or won or is doing well. Mine happens to now be the most dominant team within the NFL the Eagles of which I am a supporter are now technically the best. Are they actually the best? Well, no because we haven't played everyone yet.

but if we're just looking at records and just Power Rankings uh, the bird dominant. So I hope you're a Birds fan and if you are not, well, I feel for you asure doing your best to fight for second place if you're a Penn State fan. Yeah, we won. but I don't know just we played Indiana and we really didn't look that good.

Uh, and the real test is going to be Michigan if we can pull an upset on Michigan which I do not like Michigan at all and I think it's statistically unlikely, but crazier things have happened. It's college football who got upset like Oklahoma or something. there was a big upset o upsets happen all the time. So basically that's what I'm holding out for I'm Holding Out for a massive upset.

Uh, but if we played them 10 times Michigan would probably win nine. They are just a real good team this year. Uh, so it's going to see if we could get lucky with that that 10% opportunity so we'll see how it. we'll see how it all plays out.

So uh, as everyone's coming in I hope I Hope you had a good weekend I Hope your football team won if you are Max Foren fan I Hope you enjoyed the Mexico grand Prix. If you are a Tyson Fury fan, please understand how absurdly lucky you got. I actually forgot about that and now I'm kind of angry. did any of you watch the Tyson Fury Francis Nagu fight because that was I truly truly believe Francis one I Understand after like reading a little bit more into boxing scoring of how Tommy Fury actually beat KSI But maybe to someone who's not so informed on the sport, maybe it seems a bit different from watching it, but ever since reading up on it and understanding okay, what counts, what doesn't count that type of a thing I don't know how Tyson Fury won I I truly truly do not understand how Tyson Fury won that fight like I I I Need someone who is apparently a boxing judge to explain it to me because the only thing that makes sense is the boxing world.

The boxing Community could not have a transplant from a different sport come in and win I Like The only thing that makes sense is that they like just couldn't suffer the embarrassment. so they kind of like effectively like rigged the card I do not in I just don't get it I don't get it so that's a bit of a bummer. I Think those are all the cultural things in the world of sports that really played out over the weekend. I Know basketball's back into like kind of getting starting now as we're like waiting for the prime time in.

NFL The exciting point of the Season Uh so lots of sports. We should probably do more Sports Gambling so if any of you guys have Hot Tips hot picks for sports gambling, let me know because I need to all the money I'm successfully making selling premium I might as well burn it in the the old degenerate Sports market so we'll do that. Uh, but I Hope you had a good week B I Hope everyone won that you wanted to win I Hope you got to spend some time with family friends at a Texas Roadhouse And other than that, I hope you're ready for another fun week of trading. This is a big week of trading.

Yes, we are wrapping up the month of October kicking off the month of November. But beyond that Fomc decision, we have some big moves from the treasury itself. Also, on Wednesday Apple is reporting after the market closes on Thursday we get the unemployment report on Friday Those are the headline events, but that's not where the party stops like we have many other macroeconomic events. We have other things going on in the world of earnings.

We're going to be talking a lot about the Fed and yields and the treasury bonds and what's going on there. And then, obviously, don't forget that there's a very, very serious conflict still in the Middle East that could have a massive impact on just Global turmoil. specifically the energy sector, the defense sector. Uh, but more of I would argue the most important thing is still just like the human cost of what's going on.

so uh, stuff to pay attention to there as well. So with all that being said, let's hop into it. Let's see if we can make sense of all of the craziness going down. Uh, quick review of last week.

the Bears won, the Bears won and they won pretty handedly. Uh, the market tried to save itself at the start of October mid October Battling it out, battling it out, battling it out. and then it just got absolutely merked. But remember the market.

it Es and it flows. It expands, it contracts, it expands, it contracts, it expands, it contracts, it expands, it contracts. I Would not be surprised if not really betting on the end of this week, but we're talking about Monday and Tuesday the lead up into the major events. I Wouldn't be surprised if the next two trading days we volly go nowhere.

So I'm expecting big intraday moves. but if you look at the daily chart once again, my base case is that we volly go nowhere. That's what I'm thinking until we start to get those actual decisions from the Fed and other earnings and the unemployment report. Uh, basically trying to figure out are we successfully fighting fighting inflation? Does the FED have to be more hawkish? less hawkish? Are rates truly going to be higher for longer? What are we going to hear from Apple Is that going to set the tune for other tech stocks for the upcoming quarter? So I think a lot of our questions are going to be answered the closer we get really to November.

So right now, uh, my base case is the Bears are in control in the medium term. In the short term I Wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of mean reversion back up to the EMAs right here. And still, the cardinal rule is even if you have a base case, it's risk reward. Let the price action tell you what to do.

I wouldn't be married to your original idea cuz it might be spot- on, but it also might be absolutely horrible. So medium-term Bears appear to be in control. You can clearly see that because ever since July lower highs, lower lows. Um, they've been in control over the past two weeks.

which makes me in the short term think, okay, mean reversion. let's come back up here just to test out the supply, test out the demand, see what's going on so shortterm. Also, pairing that a bit with seasonality and I'll be going over the larger picture for seasonality, but also what we have in store for this week. Uh, that's kind of where I'm at just to give you the high level 10,000 foot overview of like my current thoughts and opinions here.

but there are going to be things that sway it. and really, even with this CIS this ideology I mean depending on what does or doesn't happen at the Fomc meeting, does or doesn't happen with Apple's earnings, does or doesn't happen with a myriad of things that could like quickly just get completely thrown out. So uh, please understand myself. But I think this is good philosophy for trading.

It's good to come up with a plan and an idea of where you're like. Okay, I think this is where we could see price going, but if there's new pieces of information including price action itself that is clearly telling you you're wrong, Well, don't be stucked to the idea, just just move on and understand that. Okay, yeah, we're all going to get it wrong. and when it comes to something like the market that basically has an infinite amount of variables, it's really tough to accurately read over and over and over and over again, it's borderline impossible to do that.

So yeah, it's great to have an opinion. It's great to have an idea, but if something is staring you in the face and telling you no, no, no, we are not looking like that anymore. just accept reality and move on. All right.

So little bit of of a framework idea to get ready for what's going on. For this particular week, stock futures rebound to start a big week with the S&P 500 metered in a correction. Uh, so before we talk about that, I Do want to take one quick step back and remind you we're just about here now. obviously from about a third of the way through October until about halfway through January Seasonally this period, this 3mon period greatly great, greatly favors the Bulls.

Now does that mean it always pays off for the Bulls No, just because on average, the median result is bullish. That doesn't mean 100% of every single year in this time frame in favors of bulls. Right now, we could have been like oh yeah, from about a third of the way through October until the end of the month, it should be very, very bullish. Now did that actually play out this time? No, about a third of the way through the month it chops sideways, then absolutely vomited You Could argue.

Went the exact opposite way. So I want you to know the seasonality over the past two to three decades and understand the generic headwinds Tailwinds that type of a thing? Understand where the deck might be stacked in one Camp's favor, but obviously it's not a guarantee by any means. Now for this particular week, uh, we have the PMI numbers coming out of China I'll be looking at this just to better understand like how weak their economy truly is tomorrow before the Market opens to celebrate Halloween we are getting the next inflation report out of the Euro Zone and we also get the consumer confidence number here in the US Wednesday The party really starts. We get the nonfarm employment change.

We get PMI numbers ISM Manufacturing ISM Manufacturing PMI and prices jolts job openings. The Fomc statment comes out at 2 and then the chairman of the FED Jerome pal will be speaking at 2:30 That's all on Wednesday as of now. For those of you been tracking what's going on with our monetary policy, there is a 90 8.6% chance that rates remain unchanged. We're currently at 5.25 There's a 98.6% chance that we stay at 5.25 So that's not going to be the surprise.

I would bet a lot of money that we are staying at 5.25 The markets are very very confident in this. So what's going to cause the market to go up or down? It's more so going to be the change. commentary in the public decision that comes out at two, but more so of how the market inters with interprets with Jerome does or doesn't say at 2:30 So this isn't going to be a surprise. when they say we're coming in at 5.25 it remains unchanged.

That's not the surprise, the surprise, or really, what the market is trying to better glean in the current circumstance. very very very much depends on the market inter interpretation of what Pal does or doesn't say. So that's all on. Wednesday Thursday the normal initial jobless claims and then Friday It's the first Friday of a new month.

If you believe in the Gregorian calendar, which the market does an hour before the Market opens, we get the next unemployment rate which is obviously going to have a big decision or a big impact. I should say on the upcoming Fomc decision in mid December that is the one that if we were going to get another rate hike, it would probably be in mid December. Right now, the odds are not the best of it. A lot of the odds are actually suggesting that we are done with rate hikes because really, when you just have yields ripping this much, they're kind of doing the exact same work as continuing to hike up.

The I Mean look at this. The 10year is at 4.9 and it's still strong. This is the 10-year yield. Ever since Miday, it's been ripping with with just no one stopping it.

Just it is continually above. Rips Up Come Down Mean Reversion Rips up, Come down Mean Reversion. Rips up Mean Reversion Rips up Mean Reversion Rips Up Big Mean Reversion Rips up Mean Reversion This, It's just washr. Repeat it.

Rips up, gets overextended. Comes back to the mean reversion. These these: EMAs right here. Uh, this right here.

For those of of you who are new, this is just an EMA cloud of various different EMA levels. Um, obviously it's green and blue when things are positive and then it's red and yellow when things are a little bit more bearish. So when you have yields ripping, and when you have the dollar ripping, that's very bad. for the stock market, that's very bearish for the equities market.

So right now, the dollar is actually kind of weak. uh, relative to where we've seen it. Not long ago, it was above 107. Now it's at 106.

Maybe trending? Uh, it's trending sideways I And that's not fair for me to call it weak. It's not bullish. It's not bearish. It's clearly just ever since the start of October been going sideways.

But there are certain Pockets like the 12th and the 13th, and the 24th, and the 25th and the 26th. We we're seeing a bit of bullishness, and that was also happening at the exact same time that we saw yields going up. So in the circumstance that we had yields and the dollar popping, this is the best way. I Can summarize it.

The Tldr is: it basically means that there's considerable amount of downward pressure on demand. If there's less demand, there's less spending. If there's less spending, businesses aren't doing as well, and even certain things like the dollar if the dollar rate's going up by the time you convert it back. If you're doing any international business, the exchange rate is no longer favoring you.

It's a big, big, fancy way to say that your bottom line revenue, your profits are taking some form of a hit, especially your Revenue if revenues are taking a hit. Well, clearly the stock market is not going to be too bullish on that, so that's a super high level. It's not 100% accurate, but that's probably like the best way to Simply Summarize it: Put it in layman's terms, but if we see yields going up and the dollar going up inherently means bonds are going down. And in this situation where yields are up, bonds are down and the dollar is continuing to show strength.

You can bet with high certainty uh, not 100% certainty, but with high certainty that there's quite a bit of downward pressure in the equities market. And that's what we've seen playing out in the Spy the ETF tracking the S&P 500 just getting hit in roughly that same time period. So those are the major macroeconomic events to pay attention to today. Uh, or excuse me this week.

But really, the show. Like today and tomorrow, there's a lot of things going down. There's earnings we'll talk about Sofi we'll talk about McDonald's uh. we have other macroeconomic events.

There's things going down for sure. But the party It. It's kind of like already a raging party. but then someone's bringing in a bunch of new bases and new cases of tequila starting.

Wednesday I Hope that makes sense. The part's already on. Volatility is going crazy. Everyone is just trying to hop onto the back of a bull or a bear and see how long they could ride it.

That's already the party. The part's already raging and we just know Wednesday that's going to get crazier. Like Tequila's going free. There's new cases of it coming in.

We're getting brand new bases. Uh, it's just. it's going to get crazy. It's absolutely absolutely going to get crazy.

So uh, pay attention to that. I Hope that metaphor makes sense. The big bond market event Wednesday is at Treasury, not the FED uh I would say the Big Bob Market Wednesday is both at the treasury and the Fed. So this is beyond the Fomc meeting.

Another thing going down on Wednesday hence why it's the part is getting really up to the next level. The Federal Reserves policy statement is setting up to be the number two event on Wednesday with investor focuses said likely to be on the treasury. Department's new borrowing plan doe hours ahead of the interest rate decision. So Wednesday is going to be absolutely crazy.

The so-called quarterly refunding announcement will reveal the extent to which the treasury will ramp up sales of longer term debt to fund a widening budget deficit. Those Securities have been tumbling for weeks, even amid signals from the Fed's officials that are at or near the end of rate hikes. So why is this important? Well, about two weeks ago, there was a random day at 1 P.m. where there was the 20 year bond auction results and they were left with 18% of the supply.

As in, there wasn't demand to be buying off the government. As in that this was legitimately showing concern for the economy. and uh, I guess concern for the government to be able to pay it back. This does not happen often, and when it does happen, the market gets absolutely hit.

And that's exactly what happened two weeks ago. You could check it at one of the days I Forget to date off the top of my head at 1: P.m. the market just started vomit and it vomited for the rest of the day. So this particular event this upcoming Wednesday will be big because people want to know like dude, what's going on Market Participants are really hyperfocused on Supply now and we kind of know the FED is on hold.

so the refunding is a bigger event than the FZ. It also has a lot to do with the moves we've seen in yields. Since the August refunding I mean just look at the 10year and the 30-year yields, they're ripping. Which means that the bonds are being greatly devalued.

Many Bond dealers predict a refunding size of 114 billion representing the same Cadence of increases for each refunding security as laid out in the 103 billion August plan which marked the first step in issuance in more than two years. An alternative view predicted by several larger dealer firms would be a smaller bump in longer term debt given the Surge and yields and greater Reliance on bills which mature in a year or less. Remember when it comes you have bonds, notes and bills. so bills, notes, bonds like that's the increase in length.

Some see this tweak, potentially bed with a signal that a further increase of long-term sales is certain for the re next refunding in February. So this is also all going down on Wednesday I know on this show on this channel we don't really go too hardcore into yields and bonds and that's just because for the past couple of years they've been boring. No one's been paying attention to them. But then with the Fed and really the switch monetary policy, the the phase switch, Well, they were boring to pay attention to because Fed rates were at zero.

But then the FED went from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening started to jack up the FED fund rate so yield started to spike. bonds started to drop. That prompted Banks to blow up. We had two of the three biggest bank blowups ever.

So this is why it's in the Limelight now is because something's actually happening and over the past couple of years nothing was happening in the sector so no one cared about it. Uh, so just to better. I guess Set the framework for why this is important now and why it's caus. A lot of I would argue Havoc within the market from the FED I've got telling us that it's going to be the most significant moment for the bond market.

Never mind your Fomc, never mind your jobs report. Um, it's going to be all about the treasury refunding. Do you agree? It's going to be that capacity to user the other data points? Yes. I I Do think that there's a fair bit of argument to be made in front made in favor of the refunding announcement being the more important thing, because at least this week, because you know the FED is going to be on hold, they're not going to raise rates anymore.

At this point, they're quite restrictive enough. The other point is that yes, we get the labor market data. We've already known that the labor market is pretty strong. We already know that the jobless rate is only 3.8% The FED thinks that they need a rate jobless rate of 4.2 4.3% to nudge the balance.

We are not going to get that any Point soon. So those two with those two known unknowns already there. Uh, the only other point of interest for the markets is the refunding announcement. and we just got the deficit figures last week and we that was a doubling of the deficit and we also got the GDP numbers last week 4.9% That's fantastic growth.

So if you look at all those things, the next Focus for the markets is how much more is the treasury going to issue to defend this deficit? Just how is Taylor Swift We did the math, she officially just crossed being a billionaire. but anyway, that's a side note. So on top of all the earnings and yields and bonds and announcements, we have earnings reports. This morning we heard from Sofi and McDonald's after the market closes today.

We hear from Pinterest later on this week on Tuesday Fizer, AMD Caterpillar, JetBlue BP on Wednesday Norian, CVS Wayfair PayPal Roku Qualicom Etsy Airbnb Does anyone get vibe that Airbnb is like dying right now? Does anyone else I like I've been reading a lot about how just uh the there was like obviously an explosion over the past couple years but now how the business itself is starting to falter and people don't want to do it anymore and all these various issues for me for the longest time hotels were the expensive thing and Airbnb was like the new cool kit on the Block and everyone's like let's do it because it was cheaper and it was a more cozy alternative. but now with all the random fees and how much of a pain in the ass it could be I never use Airbnb anymore now I'm back to hotels and I travel quite a bit and it's just a cheaper easier way to do it. Uh, Airbnb I like they need to make some serious changes. It feels as if it's dying on Thursday the big day paler Shopify Modna Crocs uh after the market closes, Apple's going to be the big one but we also hear from DraftKings Carvana, Starbucks and Coinbase and Cloud Flare and then on Friday Fubo and the Sio itself, so feel free to screen shot this.

feel free to go e Whispers on Twitter to track it down. it's also in the newsletter uh, in terms of the ones that reported this morning Sofi Sofi Squeezing 8% in pre-market this morning after beating analyst estimates for the quarter, EPS was a loss of 3 cents instead of an expected loss of seven. Sales were 531 million when the expectation was 52.5 Million so Sofi beating on top and bottom number. So if you're in SOI congratulations to you McDonald's revenue clums for 14% as price hikes boost Us sales.

So from old Mickey D's it ended up beating on once again. like Sofi top and bottom lines 319 versus an expectation of three for EPS Revenue was 6.69 billion when the expectation was 6.58 billion. So Sofi McDonald's I would argue the major ones of this morning both are beating. So bit of good news there bit of bad news here.

Israel Latest were intensifies as BB faces calls to Qu. Unfortunately, the tensions the conflict on a day overday basis does seem to be getting considerably worse. Benjamin Netanyahu Under a lot of pressure over the weekend, unwilling to accept responsibility for the Hamas attacked which he then kind of walked back all he walk us through what we need to know on that front. Yeah, and the context here is important.

So in the months that led up to this attack before this you know Israel has been deeply divided country and really around Benjamin Netanyahu and what his government's trying to do. Many support it, but many are against the Judiciary reform where tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of people took to the street on a weekly basis to object. The second this attack happened, many of the same people who protested against Benjamin nanyu rallied against the war effort and so over the weekend Benjamin Nyah who put out this tweet saying basically that it was the security apparatus's fault for not warning the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister didn't know anything that every Assurance he had from them was that Hamas had been deterred. Um, of course this was very poorly taken For many of the people who are even critical critical of Netanyahu, they've been fairly quiet, particularly in international media and for the Prime minister to come out and say this many found shocking.

he got Um, he was attacked within even his own defense cabinet and so the question is longer term. Again, he has not taken personal responsibility for any of the events that have occurred. He says some tough questions need to be answered eventually, including by him, but that's about the extent of it. and again, we have to pay attention to this because the long-term political domestic future of Israel is going to be absolutely crucial in ter terms of how they go about dealing with the Palestinian question in the future.

All right. Slight update there that was from about an hour ago. It's it's It's kind of what we've been seeing since last week where everyone's coming to the point of like hey, uh, maybe we should stop and chill out and unfortunately it seems like tensions are going the other way. There's a lot of innocent men, women, and children who are still losing their life on a day, overday basis on both sides.

It's just sad. it's just a a human catastrophe. There's a very, very real human cost to this, and it's uh, bewildering that at this day and age, just like as a species, as a population, this is how we still behave It very, very disheartening. This is the newsletter It went out this weekend.

Ms. Locals.com If you're watching this right now, you can get this newsletter for free. It's in the description of the video mat. Locals.com I Give you a breakdown of what happened the most recent week and what I'm looking to for the upcoming week.

I Give you all the major macroeconomic events for the upcoming week, all the major upcoming earnings, and then the seasonality. Basically all the key things that I pay attention to I Wanted to put it in one place so you could reference it throughout the week. but anyway, the seasonality. for today.

it's neutral if you look at this day. Historically, over the past 25 years, the Bulls have won it 58% of the time. so slightly better than flipping a coin. But the profit factor is just over one.

so it's neutral. A look at the equity curve kind of up. kind of down. Kind of up.

Kind of down. Like it's just it's a neutral day later on this week. Tomorrow, another neutral day. Then we have a bullish day on Wednesday a leaning bullish day on Thursday and a bullish day on THS or excuse me Friday So neutral neutral bullish kind of bullish and then bullish again.

So I would argue that this week historically favors the Bulls. Does that mean that this week has to be bullish this time around? Absolutely not. But I'm just letting you know who's I guess being favored the way that the deck is currently stacked? Uh, this is also a review of the option strategy. We've been kind of building out a zero DTE strategy.

as of Market close on Friday of last week, the strategy has now had two perfect weeks. Two weeks ago batting a th000. last week batting a th000. Both weeks it went 10 out of 10.

So it's currently on a 20 win strike or streak. Excuse me? um, hoping that the streak gets extended today. Uh, I hope it does. but I don't know.

At a certain point it's getting to the point where you're just like, well, statistically, it's actually overperforming. So in the back of my mind, I'm kind of expecting losses to come soon. Uh, because it does have such a statistical over performance right now. So I don't know I would love for it to go for three weeks in a row I would love to be able to brag about it.

Uh, but I The odd for this to continue I mean the odds are getting worse and worse and worse. Uh, it's just it's abnormal for sure. And then I break down all the major charts of interest to me that I'm watching for the upcoming week. Uh, and we'll talk about this later.

But has anyone noticed that orange juice has been ripping since 2020 2020 Orange juice OJ it's gone. This is on the Futures Market from sub 100 to almost 400. OJ is just this is the real squeeze. Do you know how many jokes we could have made about this of just like squeezing OJ all the videos, all the memes.

Uh, completely a missed opportunity in my book. Completely missed opportunity. Anywh, who five things to know that the mainstream media wants you to know before the Market opens today Monday October 30th correction time I Kind of agree with this. I mean the Market's been very, very overextended pre-market were up a little bit.

I'm looking for the recapture of 1440. we'll call it 60 the high from Friday then from there I'm watching 417, then from there I'm watching 420. If the market gets rejected at any of these levels, well, then I'm looking at 411 Follow by 409. And then there is a downside Gap fill to 40727.

So I Do think that the Bulls currently have the upper hand for let's say the short term this week? Uh, but also that's just a random opinion with low confidence. Uh, and more. So I'm going to be just looking for the breakouts and the breakdowns. Ride the earnings wave.

McDonald's Sofi both beat it this morning. There are other big ones this week. AMD PayPal Apple Things like that: DraftKings Carvana Odd Automaker out was this: GM uh oh with the UAW Okay, that does seem like uh I believe joining Ford in achieving a tenative agreement. So uh, so UAW we're making headlines, but it's not good across the board, thus thus far ready to walk Pharmacy workers uh, just another potential strike, uh to consider White House weighs in on AI I Want to talk about that later after the Market opens and this is something that I find particularly concerning Biden unveils Us government's first ever AI executive order so we're going to cover that after the Market opens.

We also have some stories about Elon that I want to get into before that Bell does go ding ding h no I even want to talk about this in a little bit more detail. so for now, let's watch the market open. If I had to throw out a prediction I Do think that the Bulls have the upper hand, but I'm also not married to it. Um, so I just want to throw that out there and I guess on that note, I would love to hear where you guys are at for the day.

Are you leaning bullish? Are you leaning bearish? Please let me know in a comment. uh, the name of the game today is lit, the market open the first 10 20 30 minutes and then I'm going to be doing some trading. Um, on that particular note, as you guys all know, dingy ding ding ding The casino is open. Best of luck to all.

Play responsibly if not have fun. All right. so we have Bitcoin up here cuz it's still beautifully holding right below 35k Thoughts on Salana outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum and it Utility: So I used to have Salana I did uh I no longer do I have basically Consolidated all of my crypto Holdings to effectively like 95 98% of my money like in USD is in Bitcoin or Ethereum I have a little bit of salana I have a little bit of Pepe um I get that it's outpacing it. but do you know, like what freaks me out with that one is First of all in terms of what get something to have Big big moves? Well, you need big big money behind.

Bitcoin is the closest one to having big big money behind. it is just because of the spot. Bitcoin ETF Now salana I get that it's a lot faster I get the utility and I understand why people would be attracted to the utility. But on the flip side and this might like I I Would love to actually get your thoughts on this Sam My concern with it right now.

Uh, as of the past week of my life is the main grouping that seems to be supporting it and talking about it is like bit boy it's Ben Armstrong and I Don't know if you guys have seen that guy's life lately, but he's going completely off the rails. So if that's a person who is quote unquote the face of Salana I I I Don't like that I don't support that it. it seems like within there's it feels like every whatever maybe stock every major crypto. there's like a Vibe of the community that supports it.

and Circa 2021 2022 I understood and I appreciated the Salana community a lot more. and then ever since Salana got rocked, it kind of like just went quiet and now that it's swinging back up it, it's just people like Ben and like it. I don't know I I find it concerning. So that's not really anything negative to say about Tana itself.

It's more so something negative to say about I guess the the quotequote influencers who are being attracted to it and like with that it it just makes me uh I guess uncomfortable with it of who the investment base is. Once again, no, no hit on the utility. Uh, what is there is like proof of History Proof Yeah I think that's like their uh consensus mechanism which from a mathematical standpoint does seem very interesting I know it like can do way more transactions than pretty much every other one. so like I Get it technical Pros for sure, but the the community that supports it is like a major Con in my book.

Uh, but those are just my thoughts on it. Uh, I could dive a little bit back more into it. but as I'm starting to learn more about the crypto Community itself I I like I have to admit that I I'm not a Bitcoin Maxi but I'm starting to I don't even want to say become one because I'm still in E every time I learn more about crypto Bitcoin is increasing its distance from place number two of my favorite crypto if that makes sense. Uh, so I I'm not a Bitcoin Maxi by any means I do have other cryptos, but Bitcoin has been my favorite and the more I learn about crypto as a whole and just how some of this is structured, it is increasing the distance to my second favorite one at this point, Ethereum.

the more and more I learn about it. uh Ben boy was not happy with salana during the whole FTX collapse. the dude is trying to get another Lambo he was swing for anything pumping for clicks. it has that.

Vibe Also, Salana at like one point wasn't it being pumped by the all-in podcast like it's just once again I Think that it's a very interesting technology. It seems cool it like its utility makes a lot of sense in my mind. I see where they're going with it and I want him to be successful. My biggest issue with Salana are the quote unquote faces of it.

Um, a lot of people were kind of like like getting on uh David saak case about it the entire all-in podcast it's connection with FTX and Sam Bakman freed now it's connection with Bit Boy Ben Armstrong Like it. it's just all it seems highrisk to me. and I already do enough high-risk things I don't necessarily need to like increase my own degeneracy. So the best way I guess I Never really thought about it in this much detail.

but my biggest issue with Salana is the community of supporters not actually Salana itself. I'm skeptical of crypto. Uh, I mean that's fair. like we all have our own thoughts and opinions after my research on it all.

Uh, I'm still very, very much a big big supporter of Bitcoin anybody else still buying Doge shout out Pudge um I mean we were actually kind of talking about this in the Discord this morning. A little bit of Doge might get a big pop depending on what Elon decides to do with the financial aspects of Twitter Um, will it hold that value? I mean your guess is as good as mine, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more excitement in it now. Will it get to the same level that it got to in April or May Uh, when right before Elon went on? SNL it could. But I wouldn't expect that in the short term because understand the time that that happened, we were in a completely different economic situation.

We didn't have Quant quantive tiing. In fact, we had quantitative easing. Interest rates were at zero, people were getting stimulus checks, we were locked inside. People were looking for a sense of Internet Community because there was no other communities to be had.

So that was all very very important in the Doge phenomena in the Sheba phenomena in the AMC Gme phenomena Like we are not anywhere similar to the situation we are in now. Like yeah, there might be some enthusiasm and some EX subance for sure. but uh, to get back to those levels I mean there. like Structurally, a lot of things would have to change in our monetary policy for that there just to be like that bullish ripping of to the upside of everything like we're just in a completely different phase.

Uh, very very different phase. blockchain voting. The results will be shocking. So I think blockchain and stuff like that technology would actually be amazing in many things.

Um, whether it's voting. Uh I Think it could be very useful in tracking the ownership of stock like within the equity markets. I Think it would be great for medical records I Think it would be great for uh, government things. Government records like to if you lose your social security card if you lose your birth certificate.

things like that. there's a very real reason uh, to be on something such as the blockchain with uh, like just a ledger that isn't erased. It's highly secure. Uh, it's not being like I guess scammed or altered or fictitiously changed.

Um so I think there's a lot of you like outside of the world of crypto, just talking about The blockchain Ledger Uh, just a highly secure I guess history of whatever. Um I think there's clear necessity for that clear necessity for that. Uh, Xrp, Xrp is a good bet. I see Xrp more as an active trade and obviously the legal proceedings have started Ed to benefit them.

Um so I mean obviously if that continues I wouldn't be surprised if there is a continuation to the upside. Um, but I in the long term I still like Bitcoin more but in the short term I mean similar to Bitcoin right now, but maybe even more in Xrp as as the legal proceedings continue to favor the Ripple Army it's doing well. A cardano uh Cardano recently doesn't seem to like have the most going for it I mean obviously a ra a rising tide raises All Ships So as crypto as a whole goes up, cardano would go up. but I don't know of any like big announcements in the short term that are getting people excited in the medium term.

yeah like I' I've looked at their like road map I know they're doing cool things but in the short term, uh they don't really seem to have captured the attention of like just the investing audience. If I were in Salana right now, what would I do? Okay Salana do it on coinbase. If I was in Salana as an active trade I would be waiting for the break and close below like the 50 EMA the 48 EMA uh so for it went up, went up, bounce off like right here. This is kind of like I'd be looking for a situation like this to pull out.

uh of like it got below and close below I would wait for the first daily or weekly depending on like what your time frame is um break below and close below uh a deeper EMA such as like the 50 EMA so see how it exploded, it reverted, got back here, saved itself, never closed below, it kept going I would just use it as a trend following mechanism cuz like no one can tell you how long a trend is going to play out. so I would just keep riding it and riding it and riding it as long as the trend is intact and right now we're far away from the risk level. but it like I wouldn't want it that close either just because of how volatile this is. So if we do get an environment like this like let me just uh with my suggestion like let's say you're already in.

You ride it, Ride it, ride it comes down. you're still in it cuz we never close below. Ride it. Ride it.

Ride it. You're still in it because we never close below. Ride it. Ride it.

Ride it. Ride it. and then this is where I would get out. So if I was in Salana in this first push, I would have been in it from 4 40 up until about 195 and then okay then I would have been mad cuz it bounced.

but whatever, it ended up breaking down anyway. you're not going to perfectly time it so I would be looking for a true sign of a trend reversal and then even if you were to go short here, yeah, you would have gotten busted up on this one, but you could have resorted it and then you would have been in the short all the way to down here. So you could have been short I don't know, let's just call it 180 and then you would have collected the short at 96. Um, you could have obvious ly reentered, blah blah blah.

but this is what I would inherently be looking for if I was in more of a medium term hold. I I would just be Trend Following Trend Following Trend Following Trend Following I'd be looking for a legitimate breakdown and if you have like I mean right now it's kind of far away. My risk is 25, but that's just what it would be at the current situation. Um, and once again I believe I own a little bit of salana but just to be I guess forthcoming with all of you.

My eyes are much more paying attention to Bitcoin and I still own a good grip of Eth. but same thing with Bitcoin and Eth if you're more of an active Trader I Just want to let you know I do not actively trade crypto I just don't I have Bitcoin I have eth I have some other ones but my most of my money is in Bitcoin and eth I would just uh I just hold and hold if I was more I I don't actively trade but if you're more of like a swing Trader I yeah Trend following I would just be watching these lower levels. so my the way I would manage an active position on salana, it would be the same as Bitcoin it would be the same as e I'd just be watching these deeper EMAs and see if we hold above that and then if we don't I'd be like all right maybe time to move on. uh but Bitcoin looking good just below 35k eth picking up it's at 1,800 also looking good I would love for this to get back above 2K uh the Spy looking actually really good today getting that recovery of that first level I was talking about.

um so oops, it looks like this actually might be the sign of a reversal. uh, rewinding a little bit. uh to Tuesday of last week we sold, sold, sold Tred to bounce. but you see how we Wicked above the high and didn't close above it.

So this is what I would be looking for today. That could potentially suggest that the Bulls are getting somewhat of an uper hand is if we get above and close above 41460 the high from Friday the longer we hold Above This 4450 level the more confident I would be of retesting 417. So right now, as I alluded to before the market open uh, like in the short term I think just because of mean reversion I Do think that the Bulls have the upper hand today, uh, and potentially this week. but this week it's a tough prediction Just because we have the Fomc, we have the treasury whatever that thing is called.

Uh, we have Apple's earnings. We have the unemployment report, so there's a lot going on that could mess us up by the end of the week. but today and tomorrow on a relative basis are a bit quieter. so I wouldn't be surprised.

like I mean it's a well-known phenomena of meaner version of you get so extended to the upside or uh, overextended to the upside or undere extended in the downside that you just revert to like a moving average and that's kind of what I'm looking at right now. Um, on the Futures Market You can see that things are bullish today. the 30 minutes bullish, the 10 minutes bullish, the 3 minutes bullish, and the daily is starting to maybe potentially revert back up into this region. So as of now, as of 9:43 in the morning, I do believe that the Bulls have a bit of the upper hand.

Remember, from a seasonality standpoint, the end of October the start of November is just generically bullish today. individually neutral, tomorrow individually neutral Wednesday Thursday Friday all in one degree or another, favoring the Bulls. So when I put all that together, obviously none of this is a guarantee. No one can ever guarantee you the next bar what is happening, what isn't happening.

It's a game of odds. You bet more when the odds are greatly favoring you. if there are slightly favoring you, maybe you only bet a little, and then if they're just like not favoring you at all, maybe you just take a step away away from the table, at least at that moment in time. So this is kind of the setup.

I'm going to wait about I don't know 10 15 more minutes beside before I start to do anything crazy because I want to see how the market reacts here and we want to take a look at the options Market as well. But before we do that, shout out to the sponsor the partner of today's stream. I'm talking about Street Beat. It is free to download and when you do that, use the code Matt Matat on the very first page to get a free 30day trial.

Strey is a Robo advisor. What does that mean? Yes, you can buy and sell stock the way you normally would. They do not participate in payment for order flow if that's a thing that like you particularly care about. So you could buy and sell stock the way you normally would.

But in my opinion, that's not what sets Streetbeat apart. What makes Street Beat so cool is they're directly connected to AI so they already have I guess pre-built AI trading co-pilots as in it does the buying and selling of stocks for you based on a certain set of rules. There's pre-built ones, but you could also build your own. So I've built my own that just relate to whatever high growth AI that type of thing.

but then I also use some of their pre-built ones like they have a bond ladder one that's targeting 7% apoi. My favorite one is they have one that mimics Congress So whatever Congress in aggregate is buying, you could be buying and whatever Congress in aggregate is selling, you could be selling and Streety takes care of that all for you. So it's based on AI but it does like the weekly rebalancing. it does the buying and the selling.

Um, a cool thing is they are continuing to expand their partnership. so if you don't want a fun Street beat, they do have connections to other brokerages so you could use the Street Beat strategies with your money in a different brokerage and also for those of you who are curious watching. Uh, it's not just in the US it is also International So check to see if it is in your neck of the woods. but whatever.

it is free to download and you could get a free 30-day trial with the code mat so no harm, no foul if after a month if it's not for you. okay, didn't cost you anything and I I think Personally, you're really really going to like it, but you're there's no risk for you to check. Like to to try it out. Pin to the top of chat in the description of the video.

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Uh, but anyway, the Spy looking good, the Qes looking good. Actually, now that we're talking about Street Beat I want to see how my strategies are doing right now? Uh, now that the Market's open today, Street Beat Street Beat Street Beat Loading, Loading, loading I am in the Bond ladder and that is currently up 2.9% for me I'm in the top government contract recipients. that's up 1.85% I'm in Congress buys that's slightly down I'm in one that I created called the Value Hunter that's up 10% currently in the value Hunter I have C ump JPM cop and CB so that's my value Hunter One uh, Honey Badger I have one called Honey Badger this is one of mine that's in Gs BAC AAPL Amzn and Birkshire B The value Hunter is actually up 3.5% and then I also just in that account straight up bought JQ which is an ETF managed by JP Morgan Um, and that's more of just for me to collect the dividends. Not really necessarily looking for growth.

the generative AI Revolution is up 62% this year. What? Okay, why am I not in this one? That one's in CRM Microsoft AQ Amazon Apple Nvidia IBM Intel AMD Google Interesting. Well anyway, this is just kind of gives you a little bit of a taste of what goes down in this, but it takes care of the buying and the selling for you. Yes, you can buy and sell stock the way you want, but on top of that, um, there is I don't know I'm partic I know bonds are like not the sexy exciting thing, but I think over the next one to two years I think bonds are actually at some point going to be the best trade of the year I don't know if it's this year I Don't know if it's next year, but there's going to be some like 6 to 18 month segment where everyone's going to say to themselves why did I not buy more bonds and my reasoning for that is TLT this is the 20-year bonds ETF is getting absolutely murdered to the point that this is like I don't know like I was reading about.

It's like a 5 to 10 standard deviation which basically means the chance of this happening is all. and yet it is happening. So bonds are getting slaughtered as yields are going up. But we know we're getting to a point where the FED is basically done jacking up the Fed rate so yields should pretty much chill out and then eventually they're going to start cutting the FED fund rate so yields are going to dip bonds going back up.

So I don't own this yet or maybe I do in that stry. but I haven't gone out of my way to personally get TLT yet. but this is just I mean it's just getting murdered and at a certain point you have to wonder if it's going to keep going on. Uh, I know nothing about this so there's probably someone in here who knows more about this than I do.

but I was reading about TLT W So TLT W is TLT But then you also get a dividend on top of it because they're selling covered calls against it. So this is maybe an interesting way to get that exposure. But then protect yourself with covered calls. The dividend.

Look at this. Look at this: Uh, I own none of this and I don't even know who runs it. So I I haven't been paid to say, but look at this: a 19% yield. I Don't know if I've ever seen a 19% yield on anything.

so Ttw is TLT But then someone is buying all those bonds and then they're selling covered calls against it to produce this dividend. Uh, I just found out about it this week weekend. I don't own anything. Obviously this is by no means an indication to buy or sell I don't know who's running it I don't know anything about it I'm just let you know it caught my attention because I've never seen a dividend yield this high.

Like does anyone? Has anyone in here ever dealt with this like it? Just what who runs it TLT W Who's in it I Shares I shares. Who? What's the deal on this one except all? uh, y TLT Investment Objective: The I sharees 20-year treasury bond, right? Str ETF Six to Track seeks to track the investment of an index that reflects the strategy of holding I share's 20-year Bond ETF while writing selling one month covered call options to generate income potential for enhanced income May provide enhanced income compared to traditional US Treasury bonds by selling monthly covered call options. this fund May outperform in periods of rising rates. Uh who? I guess it's just Ey shares so every month you get paid and the Apy is, uh, it was created in 22.

It's one of those things like it's a 19% It's one of those things. average weighted average Yeld to maturity, effective duration. it's one of these. So what are they in? they're in TLT cash.

It's one of these things that it seems too good to be true. like I need to do a deeper dive on it because like when I see a situation where I'm like, well, yield are probably close to Peing, bonds are probably close to bottoming out and then you're telling me I could get exposure. two bonds with basically a 19% cushion on top of it like I don't know it a good Golden Rule for the market is if something sounds too good to be true, it probably freaking is. and that's kind of where I'm at at this.

I'm like dude, it just sounds so good that like I just want to know what to catch it I feel like there's a catch and I just want to know what the catch is. Um so hey, maybe if someone in here knows a bit more about it than I do JQ is a better hold? Uh, well, it's just you're doing two completely different things. JQ is effectively a subset of the NASDAQ. So you're trying to get NASDAQ growth and its dividend yield is less.

But it's two completely different things. One of them, you're talking about bonds. The other one, you're talking about a subset of the Um NASDAQ. So I I don't even know if you'd like compare those.

ask Chat: GPT Uh, here, let me get this up. we will ask Chat: GPT Uh, let me bring it up. Let me log in. L Ttw ETF To me, uh, explain the Ttw ETF to me as of my last knowledge.

update in January 22 I'm not aware of a specific exchange ETF with Ttw is probably thef Yeah, it was launched later so it doesn't know because it wait January 22 I think it was made just after that, so chat Gbt doesn't know. unfortunately. Unfortunately, unfortunately we will not know from old. the the AI is keeping its secrets from us, keeping it secrets from us.

Uh, but owning a home is Within Reach In These 10 cities where buyers need less cash to achieve the American dream I Wanted to bring this up because officially mortgage rates are above 8% which means no one is affording right now because you are getting much less of home for the same amount of money before we get into it. Unless you already read this, what do you think the top one is? If you guys had to guess the number one affordable place in terms of housing, where do you think it is? Where do you think it is? Where do you think it is? Where do you think it is? Obviously, Number 10 is ill. Illinois Peoria I Think Caterpillar has a big plant there. Uh, Minnesota was the best place for Millennials to live Oklahoma Iowa Well, Squirrel Nuts discount Texas You are correct.

so let's just go over the top five. H Let's just read them all. why not? Peoria Illinois Coming in at number 10 Lakeland Florida Coming in at number Nine Gulfport Mississippi Coming in at number eight Virginia Beach Virginia Coming in at number seven I Actually found this one to be pretty surprising. Mobile Alabama Greenbow Alabama Uh, coming in at six Augusta Georgia Coming in at number five Huntington West Virginia Coming in at number four and now let's get to the top three.

Shev Shreport Louisiana Down payment 6.7% median down payment 4.5k median home lising 250k Fville North Carolina coming in at number two average down payment 5.9% median down payment 2.8k median home list price 330k and then Texas Texas Texas Texas coming in at Numroe UNO So I actually looked this place up. It's just north of Austin Texas just south of Waco So anyway, just north of Austin Texas kind of like West Central Texas The average down payment is 5.3% the median home uh, down payment is 2.1k and the median home is 325k. Uh, like I said, just north of Austin just south of Waco. but Texas Taking the number one spot.

All right. How are we looking on the market right now? Whoa. Might have to do some trades here pretty soon. Might have to do some trades here.

Dude, the 10minute is ripping. The 30 minute ripping. the 3 minute ripping. the Bulls are in control today.

Like I said, the longer it hangs out above 4450, the more confident I become in it. Going up to 47. Augusta and Savannah are some of my favorite places to visit in. Georgia.

So what's to do with Augusta The only thing I know about Augusta is obviously the golf tournament. Um, is it. Is there a Texas Roadhouse close? Oh Gary That's a good question. That's actually probably the best question anyone's asked today.

Uh, we should look into that. I Shares is Black Rock Are they actually Black Rock? or do they just do work with black Rock? Uh, evil. Fandango You were born there in Austa I Go to Savannah State Well, sounds like you're in a pretty awesome area. Sounds like you're in a pretty dope area.

All right. Where are we at? We haven't done any trade yet. We're trying to wait that first half hour. And waiting that first hour half hour.

We've almost done a minute and a half left. Uh, where am I at? Where am I at Just waiting for little bit of this. A little bit of that to play out. little bit of this little bit of that.

You guys know how it is. You guys know how it is. A little bit of this. a little bit of that.

Al Alert. All right, Create. Let's change it to Pink So we know that it's not a major trend line. I Just want to know this first 30 minute breakout.

What's the deal? What's the deal? I don't know I mean I'm sure all of you guys did see it, but uh Matthew Perry the actor from who got really known from Friends passed away this weekend I believe it was Cardiac Arrest when he was in a hot tub and then that prompted him to end up drowning. Super super sad. Uh but it also made me realize that I've probably watched less than two episodes in of Friends In my Life um I I get that for the era of TV that it came out, it was transformational and Friends led to the birth of many of the probably the TV I watch now. but I was just never, ever ever a person who watched Friends so like I guess I just didn't have that nostalgic Factor uh I just never saw it and I don't know.

like I think without ever seeing it growing up. If you watch it now you're kind of just like well there's better TV on um so I don't know. super sad I mean he seems like a guy who had a lot of Life battles and he overcame it and I think he was very very public about is like fight with addiction so uh anyone who's able to overcome that like I I definitely I feel for them that's like by no means an easy battle. uh but more of just the realization that I was like oh wow I have not really ever watched Friends in my life friends is trash TV without laugh tracks that show was not funny at all.

Well once again are you thinking about it now cuz at the time it was like to all my understanding very transformational. Uh this guy right here he probably doesn't even like Seinfeld dude that's another show Seinfeld and friends are both shows that I've watched less than two episodes of. uh so they might be great like I'm in I'm by in no means in position to be like oh like this is awesome or not I just haven't seen it when Rachel grabs her boss's junk classic yeah I don't I don't even know these references I just haven't seen it. They might be awesome.

they might be trash. just haven't seen it, haven't seen it, haven't seen it. What about scrubs? I've watched more scrubs I haven't watched scrubs from the start to the end. But scrubs? That cracked me up? That was.

It was actually a really good show. Um I I saw a couple seasons of that one. Uh, what else do we have going on? A true crypto bro. Oh, you guys are sending in some reacts.

uh binance CEO CZ has seen his wealth plunge 82% since its peak. I Mean that's kind of the going thing. uh with anyone in crypto very volatile. What is this? Uh, someone's asking me dude I Can't believe there's people still supporting Mullen What's Mullen doing? Oh wow.

Well we got to set up our alert for Mullen Uh, we'll play sound. Yeah, we got to get all the Mullen alerts. Actually, we don't need a sound cuz that might annoy us. but we have to have the old alert set up for it to hit a new all time load.

This is like such an obvious scam stock. The fact that people are still trying to tell you like to get into it and it's awesome. it blows my mind. Speaking of things that are losing people a shitload of money AMC Not doing anything.

It's been range bound ever since September Gme actually getting hit. Gme is getting merked right now. The next stop might be all the way down here at 963 on Old Gme how's Doge looking uh Doge Doge picking up I didn't know that they had that animation. That's funny anyway.

Doge picking up off of uh 5.8 cents up to 6.9 cents. Uh so a little bit of the meme coming back