Ola Mis Amigos or should I say I Kuramba I Actually don't even really know if that's Spanish now that I think about it, but you understand my sentiment. You looked at the stock market today if you looked at the economy today. if you looked at both the national and political news scene today, none of it was good. In fact, it was very, very bad.

And I do want to get into the tale of two stocks if you will Tesla Diving Diving diving Netflix Ripping Ripping ripping. So I want to get into that? but ALS Al all the other larger news. So if you enjoy these type of updates, don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to subscribe.

With that being said, let's rock! So by the time the closing bell went dingy ding ding ding today Thursday October 19th it wasn't so good. In fact, there was pretty much one silver lining to the whole situation. but other than that, it was a blood bath. the overall: Market the S&P 500 down 88% the tech sector down 94% Tesla getting crushed to the tune of 99.3% I'm going to give you a breakdown of why that happened, especially some of the negative stuff coming out of Elon Musk's earnings call.

The one silver lining was Netflix gained an impressive 16% So yeah, I want to talk about that? Give you an update of what's going down in the Middle East also within the US And then yes, I do want to get into some of the wild things that happened at the Chairman Pal's discussion today in New York City Wild wild Wild Dow closes more than 200 points lower as 10year treasury yield near 5% This has a lot to do with inflation or the fact that we're barely making Headway in the battle against inflation yields up dollar up Bond down obviously dragging equities with it. So much to get into. but the tldr of it is this picture right here. Not as much of a blood bath as really like you would think like things were bad but but there are some major Tech plays that were neutral or a little green.

but if you look kind of in this lower corner, pretty bad energy. financials. Health Care not having a good day One very very red one Tesla that is blood red that is Carnage that is some spooky seasoned stuff and it has all to do with the earnings. So I gave more of an update on this in yesterday's video.

so if you want the specific numbers, please feel free to check that out. But what you need to know is across the board. It misss it. Missed on Revenue it Miss on earnings per share free cash flow not so good Miss on margins.

so just the from a quantitative standpoint, just the numbers in the report not so good. Yeah, there were some positives. They're going to start delivering on Cyber trucks this year. probably not that many.

Scalability might be tough. They're making some progress on AI Training the robots to do some low-level tasks, making some progress on on full self-driving but a lot of people in the earnings call were hoping for some sort of Thaine. Unfortunately, that wasn't delivered, but really, it wasn't the biggest issue. The biggest news related to Tesla and Elon Musk of the day and why the stock got kicked in the nuts is because a lot of people thought of this earnings call to be one of the worst of all time.

Some of the biggest Tesla Bulls some of the biggest Elon Fanboys were even calling out how this was an absolutely horrific earnings call, and it was basically because he was a doomsday caller himself. Mr Elon Musk sounded as negative as he could possibly be continually talking about high interest rates a lot of the affordability issues as in a weakening consumer, and it was just really a sad outlook for the next half year year year and a half that type of a time frame Tesla's CEO Elon Musk sounds pessimistic. Note about economy on earnings call: Tesla reported adjusting earnings of 60 6 cents when they were expecting 73, so that was a miss. The operating margin came in at 17.6 the expectation was somewhere between 9 and 10, so that was a Miss obviously greatly dropping from the same quarter a year ago at 17.2 and then also on top of that really the negative sprinkles on top during the company's earnings call.

CEO Elon Musk Express Caution about the state of the global economy and said the company's focus on making its cars more affordable and he just kept hammering the negative points. Tesla's shares snc 9% following earnings report cautious commentary from Elon Musk shares of Tesla fell Thursday Today after the EV Automaker released third quarter results that missed top and bottom lines and at that point the stock. The initial reaction just when this was released down about 2 to 3% and then when there was some diving into the report about the cybertruck and AI came back up. at one point it was above break even and then really the bottom fell out.

ding the earnings call when people realize Elon negative on the economy, negative of what's going on in the world of automaking I Want to be very clear before we cover this more in the short term: I Do think that this is going to lead to rough situation rough Seas if you will, but in the long term I'm still very, very bullish and supportive of where this company is going. But I don't think it's that crazy of a call out when yields are going up, especially when people have to finance getting a car that they're just going to be having less of an appetite to buy a new vehicle. I Don't think that's a crazy call out. So this is forcing Tesla as a company to continue to lower the price to hit their delivery targets.

and if you're doing that well, then you're eating into the margins so it very quickly snowballs in a negative sense. But I just want to make it clear that I am not of the opinion that this is going to last forever. I Think that this is an issue that could last anywhere from half a year to about a year and a half, but by the time we hit 2026 I Really have no questions in my own in mind that this will continue its very upward trajectory. The disappointing results in cautious commentary were enough to worry some analysts on Wall Street and also a lot of retail investors.

But once again, I Think this is just momentary. These are my own opinions I Highly recommend that you do your own due diligence on the situation. But I cannot stress it enough that what are you? Are you an active? Trader If you are great, pay attention to the current price Trm or are you an investor looking where things are going in terms of AI the I guess Robo Taxi Netor work, What's going on with Trucking What's going on with the auto sales itself? so it it's what time frame are you looking at for me when it comes to Tesla I'll do both. but referring to the longterm I'm still as optimistic as I've ever been.

Speaking of optimistic Netflix crushed it going up more than it was even in post market yesterday. Netflix Profit beats expectations. Add to your subscription prise. So yeah, it beat on expectations.

It was in line with Revenue beat on EPS but the real numbers and actually I have them right here here. The expectation was that they would add in 6.2 million new subscribers and that's a very, very high goal. and then it blew it out of the water. It ended up coming in with 8.7 million new subscribers So Not Only was the bar set High and a lot of people that they wouldn't hit it, but it even exceeded that.

Is this type of growth sustainable? No, not really. A lot of this growth most likely attributed to the fact that of the password Crackdown so people were like, well I still want Netflix so I might as well sign up. So this type of growth I would in no way be expecting quarter over quarter and the farther we get away from the password Crackdown I Think we're going to be seeing less and less of it, but in the short term. obviously the market absolutely loving it.

Speaking of the overall: Market we need to speak of the overall World situation. US State Department Issues worldwide. Caution alert as tensions in the middle eore Unfortunately, this is the same tone of the updates I've had to give for this whole Global situation ation over the past couple days where it seems like things are getting worse instead of better. and obviously just with the platform that I have I I Appreciate it.

You guys are the reason I have this platform I Do view it as my duty to do my best to keep you informed with this type of stuff as well setting the potential for Terror attacks and violence. The State Department warned Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution reading between the lines. Obviously things are going to get a little bit worse before they get a little bit better. Hope hopefully this happens very quickly.

I Really I hope that I'm wrong I hope that this I hope I'm completely wrong and it's fixed by tomorrow I Don't think that's going to happen, but I just want to keep you a prize to the current situation Now if we bring it home to the current turmoil on the political scene within the US Jim Jordan Back's plan to empower interm House Speaker Patrick McKenry Until January According to sources, one of these days, I want to be one of these fancy fancy sources, but apparently as of now that is not me. So instead of going to a third round vote to see if he could become Speaker of the house and said Jim Jordan I would argue in a bit of a mature manner, saying okay, you know what? Let's give McKenry the appropriate powers of actually being the speaker of the house until about the January time frame and then maybe do the vote. then when really Global tensions simmer down. Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio will back a plan to temporarily Empower interm house Speaker Patrick McHenry to oversee the passage of legislation which is obviously very important giving the current issues in Israel Jordan will remain in the race for speaker in the meantime after failing to secure the Gavl in two separate votes this week.

In fact, in the second one, he lost even more votes not heading in the right direction. It is unclear whether Jordan will push for a third vote on his bid Thursday did not happen and right now it seems like maybe this story might be just put on the back burner for a couple minutes. So just another thing to be paying attention to. Speaking of the world of politics and votes and who's popular and who's not popular.

this is a wild update. Trump is winning over swing state voters worry of Biden's economic plan leading Biden 47% to 43% in swing states. Can you? Can You just break down these results quickly here and what it means going I Think a lot of people are surprised by this. Yeah, absolutely.

I mean these are the key Battleground States Not just in the presidential race, but also some of the the key Senate races we're looking at. Michigan Arizona Nevada Wisconsin You know these are Georgia These are going to be key Battleground States in house or a senate and of course the presidential race. I'll show you this graph in more of a readable manner just one second. It's a long time away before uh, election Day 2024.

but I think you're going to see a lot of candidates not just top of the ticket people, but down ballot. Looking at these kind of results and you mentioned the poll, there was another thing in terms of the war in Ukraine uh in these Battleground States voters said they trusted Trump more than Biden on that and that could have repercussions for a big funding package on Capitol Hill to help fund Ukraine So one of the most interesting things I got from this poll is when it comes to global conflict and also the economy. Obviously two separate issues a lot of Voters are thinking that Trump would be a better leader in those two subs sectors than the current Administration obviously if you feel that way hey, congrats, if you feel the opposite way I'm not personally attacking you I'm just telling you the breakdown of this poll. Another interesting thing is at least from my own audience.

what we're seeing is a lot of people who originally supported Biden are starting to think uh-oh maybe not the best decision. With all that being said before we get into the graphs. Yes, there's more than a year till the next election, so a lot of things can change. This is not etched in stone quite yet, but these are the current trends we're seeing being important.

Obviously when it comes to the global economy the US economy, the US Stock Market and even things on a personal level such as taxes. pretty important to pay attention to. But here we have it: Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in several key swing States As voters reject the economic message that is Central to Biden's reelection bid, so the whole Biden Amic thing basically falling flat on its face Trump The FrontRunner for the GOP nomination leads Biden 47% to 43% among voters in Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania and Wisconsin The results across those seven states had a margin of error of 1 percentage point, so a pretty high confidence poll 13 months before the election Biden lags the former president in head-to-head matchups and five of the seven swing. States Though the gap between the rivals was within the larger margin of error for each individual.

State While the two canids are virtually tied nationally, these states will likely be particularly important in delivering the electoral votes that will decide the next president, and this is more digestible. Trump leads in five of seven swing States so he is not leading in Nevada In Michigan they are tied. but other than that, as of now, Trump is leading in Pennsylvania Wisconsin North Carolina Arizona and Georgia. Now with that being said, I Just want to get your thoughts I want to get the idea or a better idea of myself of where my audience is at.

Do you buy this or you just like no, we're too far out, the polls don't make sense or is it more so resonating with you of like no, maybe you're thinking to yourself you don't like biomics, you don't like what's going on with global tensions and maybe there is a better suited leader. Let me know your thoughts in a comment below and the final message I want to get across is some in truly ridiculous things that happened with a big Fed speech today. So the Chairman of the FED Mr Jerome pal had a speech in New York today and basically he was saying hey, the economy is actually absorbing what we're doing pretty well so we think we have to do more of it to fight inflation. That's the Tldr version.

But really what we saw was not in the November Fomc meeting. For those of you who don't know, an Fomc meeting is where 19 voting members decide if they want to jack up the Fed rate, lower it or keep it constant in November The odds right now with about a 98 99% certainty are saying no change in November Wednesday November 1st. But when we fast forward to the December meeting now the odds are spiking up pre previously there were basically nothing, but now there's about a 33, a 1 and three chance that they do another 25 Bips rate hike, another .25% Currently we're sitting at 5.25 so obviously that would be cumulative and that would bring us up to 5.5% This is important because that Fed fund rate is what sets the tone for all these other interest bearing things in the world. Credit card payments, interest rates, and obviously the list goes on and on and on.

But that's why we're seeing right now. in the world of housing, mortgages, the the mortgage payments we're at a two decade High we're over 8% That's absolutely crazy. Pal says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down. so he's trying to pump the brakes on the economy.

He's trying to jack up unemployment to get a handle on inflation. Right now. it's coming in in the realm of mid threes. And don't forget, the goal is two or lower.

So that's the goal. And at first we were at Nine in June of 2022, so we're trending in the right direction. But it seems like certain sub sectors of inflation are proven to be very, very sticky. But that's really not the wild part.

First of all, here's a nice recap. Pal says Fed proceeding carefully leaves door open to hike. So if you want to know how that impacted the market, this is about when he was talking today, so going into it, it kind of spiked. and then when people realized how hawkish he was being, they interpreted that to be bearish.

And then obviously the market continued to sell off and sell off. But there was a bit more extra volatility here today. and I got to stream this live and it was wild. Climate protesters disrupt start a Federal Reserve chair Pal's economic speech.

So in New York a bunch of people got into the building and they were basically having issues with fossil fuels. like basically saying to get off the financial fossil system. Seems like they were attacking dinosaurs in a general sense, but hey, that's just my opinion on it. all those and all that stuff is floating around on.

Twitter so feel free to check it out. I Personally retweeted and like them so you can look at my profile if you want to dive into it. but they like cut the lights and they got your own pal out of the building. It was wild for a bit there when he was getting underway and hey, it kind of reminds me of all the fossil climate protesters like when they get in front of cars and everyone else just gets mad.

and if anything, it's just taken away from the overall movement because if anything people start to think that they're immature and kind of unreasonable rather than hearing them, even if they have like a legitimate qualm to be expressed. So anyway, that's what went down with the Fed. That's what it went down with the overall. Market But I do want to wrap this up on more of an important note of the market.

If we scroll out on the S&P 500, you can see we've been following this trend line from last: October Well, not too long ago at the start of this October we broke down but it was kind of a fake out breakdown and the market bounced all the way back up. got rejected by a very important EMA and exponential moving average. This is the 48 but roughly the same as the 50 ran up into that ran there 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 days rejected and started to come off the tracks yesterday and then very much came off the tracks today officially breaking down and closing below that trend line. My next stop would be in the realm of 24ish and then obviously really, that might be setting up if it doesn't hold this recent low at 42020.

If we get below a close below that level, obviously I would be arguing that that's going to set up another leg down, maybe in the short term to the 410 415 area. So those are the key levels I'm going to be watching to close out this particular week I Hope you're watching this video in time because Friday October 20th It is a big options expiration day, which means a lot of money is going to be changing a lot of different hands which can clearly prompt quite a bit of volatility. So if you want check out the stream because we're going to be covering everything in real time. Monday to Friday I Stream 9 to 11: A.m.

ET if you want to check that out, but that's what I have for you in this update video I Hope you enjoyed it I Appreciate your time I'll catch you in the next one. Have a beautiful day.