Are you coming in? You coming in? You coming in? Hello Hello Hello Uh hello hello Hello hello. Is it working now? Is it working? Is it working? Is it working? Is it working? Is it working? Hello Hello Internet This is Matt from the Matt core show. Can you now hear me? Testing Testing Testing One two three Testing Testing One Two three Um I've been streaming the video is up somehow I ended up on Twitter but it did not end up on rumble or YouTube Now I have an errant stream on YouTube That is confusing for many, many reasons. I Guess I need to delete that one.

Delete that one forever. Yes I Understand Um I must have messed up my stream Keys somehow. but I think I'm live at this point on the right one. Are you guys hearing me? Are you guys vibing with me? Um, you could actually see the start of the show it was up on Twitter and it was on a different YouTube stream I Think it might have even been on a different Rumble stream.

Are we going right now? Can you guys hear me in the proper channel on the where are we at? Where are we? Okay, we're here now I am live. Well, uh you. What you've really missed is the fact that Piper has decided to hang out for the day. She's just.

she's just vibing. She's just chilling. She was being a very, very bad girl last night. Uh, just up all night ripping feet apart.

Just all of a sudden you just hear the Smashing the clattering of our various plants outside on this hill. Uh, here's the growth check. She's now one full length of a camera. so she's getting pretty big.

She's pretty getting pretty. Wily She's just vibing. Dude, she's just. she's just vibing today.

Look at that. I Don't think she really gets the concept of cameras yet. You gotta look right here. over here.

right right over here. Look right here. No, she doesn't care, she's just vibing. Well, we are about to get the retail sales report at 8 30 so we're going to switch over to that.

But I do want to forewarn you if she doesn't really get the concept of how she shouldn't climb up people's like legs. especially when there aren't pants on. She'll just claw right into your thigh to climb up to get on top of your shoulder. So if I end up screaming like a little girl uh, throughout Today's Show understand that I am in fact not a little girl and it just happens to be that I'm being attacked by my roommate.

Uh, so that's where we're at. But let's switch this up to the retail sales and then I have to redo the whole intro of the show. Just so you know. Central ECB The European Central Bank hiked rates to record level as inflation risks outweigh economic.

Loom So it was actually a surprise hike. They pretty much thought they would keep rates over at like they're the equivalent of our Central Bank Uh, They thought they would keep them flat and they actually raised it by 25 bits. We're getting retail sales right now and PPI Data: Rick Santelli joins us for that. Rick Take it away August Street For producer prices the wholesale version of course.

Headline Number expected to be up four tens is up significantly more. up seven tenths, up seven tenths and one percent. That's the hottest three going back to June of 22 when it was up nine tenths of a percent. And if you strip out, uh, excuse me, excuse me I was looking partially at retail sales.

Now, if you strip out food and energy. uh, that was retail sales up six tenths of one percent X Auto's up six tenths X autos and gas up two tens, the control group up one tenth and that's much stronger than expected that seven tenths on. PPI Headline: I Just referenced Well, if you strip out food and energy, it drops to two tenths exactly as expected. And if you strip out food energy trade, it's up three tenths and that's a little bit on the hospital in February last year, last time you were up more than that was up halfway in January of this year, so we could see that those numbers have moved a little bit.

and if we look at final demand year over year and these are important, up 1.6 up 1.6 That was supposed to be up closer on expectations to up 1.3 and in the rear view mirror that was up eight tenths. That was up eight tenths. So up 1.6 is actually the hottest read since April we were up 2.2 And if you strip out food and energy year over year, it is up 2.2 percent Exactly as expected. That's 210 shy the 2.4 in the rear view mirror.

And if you look at Ppix, food, energy and trade year over year, up three percent. That's a bit hotter than expected by a little bit, both on expectations and the rear view mirror. Uh, the last time we had a number yesterday's CPI bit uh and now PPI a bit High three. Now let's move the initial jobless claims and by the way, you notice dropped significantly on yields.

Now we've turned it back around so it was a bit hotter PPI and also some of the influences earlier. knee-jerk reaction is this will essentially confirm that we're getting one more rate hike in November That's fine. Knee-jerk Reaction to this report: a rate hike in September but one in November see a revision Uh 216 000 on our last look was actually the lightest number going back all the way to Uh December of last year. So now let's look at continuing claims.

Always a week in arrears, so there could be some influence there with the holiday issues. 1.688 million. So One million 688 000. That's almost spot on with expectations and just a smidge higher than our last look.

I Continue to point out that we've gone from 422 and Tens back up very near 427 the high-yield trade moments ago around 428 and Tens. So we want to pay particularly close attention to two things. We've talked before that when we extended this rally in yields or sell-off on the face value, it took out some of the October high yields in the long maturities. Those yields and 10s happen to have been four and a quarter and I said at that time it was technically significant.

We're going to have yields more bias to the upside and very sticky around four and a quarter and we see that continues to be true. Becky Back to you Rick Thank you very much, All right. Steve Steve Leesman joins us with more on this right now. Steve I Guess the most important number probably headline for the PPI A lot hotter than expected.

If you strip out food and energy, it's not. It's not hotter than expected. it's right in line with expectations. Is it easy enough to pin that to higher energy prices, higher oil prices? or is there something else at Play No, that's what you play.

It's actually uh, Becky a play in the retail sales number two because that hotter than expected retail sales number was also driven by a 5.2 percentage Point month-on-month increase in gasoline station sales as well. And there was some weakness underneath that. Um, I I Am. of course, amazed that we continued that August strong consumer spending, albeit a lot of it for gas for gas.

Um, but I Was expecting this to come down quite a bit. It didn't It was a downward revision to July by a couple tents, but the idea that we've maintained it maintains this notion that the third quarter GDP number is going to be fairly strong. It is interesting though that the Trade Services number I don't know if you remember that last month there was a funky number in there. uh, that pushed it up, which was uh Commissions in the financial sector that fell.

uh, the total uh, trade number or or the profit margin fell 0.3 this month that's going to feed into the people. So this might be good news for the Feds alternate indicator there on the PC. But still, we're going to have to digest somehow some way, the surge in oil prices into both the economy and into our thinking about monetary policy. And it's a tricky thing to game out because if it was just oil prices and or just food prices, the FED could look through it.

But what we don't know is whether or not that bleeds into other areas of the economy and starts having an effect for example, on service inflation. and also does it have an effect on inflation expectations? We have to watch it before we go. I Just want to give you the latest quote here on the FED funds. Whoa, What's going on with CNBC That one's not Piper's fault.

Just to clarify. well, PPI coming in a bit hot I Don't know why it's freaking out there. Uh August Wholesale inflation Rises 0.7 hotter than expected retail sales up Gpio the retail sales half a percentage higher than expectation South Carolina Senator Presidential candidate Tim Scott he's going to join us next. Do you want to listen to Tim Scott or do you want to go over other stuff? Dude, this cat is being so bad today.

Stop dude. she's a little Gremlin right now. What'd you do? You broke it. You broke the stream for everyone.

Are you happy? Is that what you wanted to see? Did you want to financially ruin me? Dude. she is just crazy cat mode right now. All right here. let's switch this up.

They're gonna think I'm just a I'll see if I can switch this up where we can appropriately. All right, we're gonna do a little bit of this. a little bit of this. a little bit of that.

you happy Now You've disrupted the entire stream. the entire stream. Piper I Hope you're happy I hope you proved your point to everyone. All right.

We'll see if she comes back up unless of a dangerous height off the floor. You know you always think of cats as like agile creatures. Uh, Piper Particularly not agile. Uh, that.

Come here. Are you? What Are you? doing? We're either doing the show today together or you need to leave, but you just hanging out ripping my feet apart is not part of the part about this. Ah man, it's like, you know, it's so hard to find good talent these days. Talent that just like won't bite your feet in the middle of the show.

Dude, she's losing All right. I don't know. There's no winning with her today. Literally no winning with her today.

I I'm embarrassed for her To you guys, dude. stop Just Breathe this Honestly, this honestly reminds me about what I was talking about on the other stream that mistakenly went live and before we get into it because we have a lot to talk about. I'm going to be reviewing the wholesale numbers, retail sales initial jobless claims we have Ken Griffin doing an interview at 10 A.M This morning AMC completed the most recent round of dilution. We have some craziness going on in the world of Tesla In Elon we have a bit of a political update.

We have a lot to get into, but before we get into all that I want to share a little bit of I Guess an update here. A little bit of an update and particularly what I'm talking about is more of like a life lesson. Yes, you may be able to apply it to trading, but I'm here to I don't know, be a little bit more of a philosopher if you will. So obviously some people play this life on.

Easy Street On easy mode, novice mode like they're living on easy street, whatever you want to call it and other people. It seems like no matter what they do, it's always just a streak of bad luck. Bad luck, bad luck. Now in my life I've been fortunate to have runs of good luck and I've also unfortunately had a battle through periods of bad luck and last night I think I had one of the worst I guess like situations that anyone would have to deal with and I honestly wouldn't wish it on my greatest enemy.

So I decided after a crazy day of signing this filming that doing everything in between I decided to you know, go to the old grocery store, get a London broil and plan on reverse searing it. If you haven't done this already, do it. All you need to do is get a nice hunk of meat. you throw it into the oven for 325 for 25 minutes and this is if you want it medium rare.

If you're trying to cook steak at a different temperature, you might as well leave the stream because I don't want to hear from you. but anyway, you cook it for 25 minutes in 325. When you're done with that, you heat up a skillet really hot and you just kind of like highest temperature possible for a minute or two on each side just to seal it all in. Bought a bing bada Boom you just reverse here this steak and it's awesome.

So this was my whole plan I was like I'm gonna absolutely crush it I was looking for a rate record-breaking event I was attempting to cook the best steak I've ever cooked in my life. just just really get to the top of this mountain. That was the Wednesday of my life. So anyway I go in there and I have a game plan and I walk in I'm like you know what you need with the steak.

Obviously you need some sort of vegetable and obviously broccoli is a very reasonable go-to especially if you're already going to be cooking something in the oven. You get some just salt, pepper. all that good stuff. We this isn't a cooking class and maybe it should be, but we all know how to cook up some good broccoli.

So anyway, I'm walking around and in this particular grocery store, there's two options for broccoli. One that feeds two people and then the other one that I think like feeds upwards of 200. There's no in between. There's either the biggest bag of broccoli ever created or a reasonable amount of broccoli.

one to feed a militia, one to feed a small family. Those are the two options. So I'm walking around I find the broccoli location. you know I'm treating this as if I'm like Seal Team 69 I have my map out and my reconnaissance I know I'm about a click away and I finally get to like location Tango and the broccoli's there and I see all this broccoli? Unfortunately, it's the oversized bags of broccoli.

just way too big and I'm like what am I gonna do with this? Not only do I have to buy this bag of broccoli, but now I have to get like at least a thousand friends to come to my apartment and eat this broccoli with me. It's just completely unreasonable I don't want to buy it because I just know I'm going to end up throwing so much of it out. it's just an unreasonable, uh, amount of broccoli, a plethora of broccoli if you will. And at this point, I'm at a low because I've had such just such a day I had such a vision for this London broil and all of a sudden whether you're a religious person Karma or maybe you just believe in statistical chance that sometimes you'll just have the worst day possible I cannot find the appropriate bag of broccoli as I alluded to I know this is a hard story I I understand that's why I said I wouldn't wish this upon my greatest enemy and when I was in the lows like I was truly spiraling into a dark abyss of what am I going to do my dinner plans completely thrown out the window like just, um, it was all going against me like I Don't know if you guys have ever felt like this, but just when everything in life is just beating you down, beating you down and then this was it for me.

I could not find the appropriate brag of broccoli and I I mean spiraling is the word that comes to mind. but I don't think it really fully encaptures the magnitude of what I was going through like mentally, physically, spiritually, metaphysically, whatever you want to call it and when all hope was lost I like a lost toddler within a grocery store. I'm just it was nomadic I was just walking around trying to figure out what I'm gonna do. Distraught is majorly the emotion and the I guess circumstance I was personally battling with and all of a sudden I found a pineapple section I Don't know if you guys have a pineapple section, but in my grocery store there's a pineapple section which is just like a small little tray of pineapples.

But anyway, I'm at the pineapple section and I bang a left turn and right as I hit a left, the first thing that attracts my eyes are these red tomatoes and a little bit left of the red tomatoes. I see not one but two appropriate size bags of broccoli Folks, not just one but two and right there as life itself God herself Karma itself was just shining upon me I swear I think I almost heard a small Choir in the background as the light descended from the grocery ceiling. Right there, there's a spot like and I when I came around that pineapple left and I mean obviously it was burning out I'm a fast Walker So I burn out. see the tomatoes eyes look a little leftward.

it was just like oh and right there right there I knew it was going to be a good night. It was. It was at that moment that I realized no matter what we're thrown in life, you might have to experience such serious horrific events the way I have. But if I can make it through that, you can make it through whatever life throws at you.

yeah, in the middle of it I'm not gonna say that it was fun to go through, but now that I know I've gotten to the other side of it. Obviously it's nice to know you can survive that type of an event. So whatever goes on in your day, your week, your month, your year understand First of all that it could always be way worse. You yourself could be a lost toddler looking for broccoli in a grocery store, but maybe your story isn't going to be that bad because I obviously understand the magnitude of it is Extreme and once again, I don't hope anyone gets through it.

but whatever you're going through, it just basically keep banging left whenever you see a pineapple and eventually eventually you just have to trust in the fact that it's going to work out. So whatever it is in your life, whether it's trading outside of that, maybe your job, your relationships just understand. There's two two major rules. If you see a stand of pineapples, take a left because maybe your solution is going to be right there.

And number two, you just got to keep going. You just got to keep going. Yeah, my nose is because this freaking cat and I didn't take my antihistamine this morning I should get sponsored by Zyrtec Did you just say well done steak and ketchup? That's crazy that don't don't do that, don't do that. But yes, uh.

I'm honestly a bigger issue at the grocery store is the fact that they didn't have allergy pills. So uh, my antihistamine levels were just raw dogging it today. Uh, the we are I don't know if my histamine levels are high or low I'm not a scientist I don't know what it means, but these were just we're going into the histamine levels raw today raw so we're gonna see how it plays out. A lot of people have told me I should get Flonase but honestly I just need to take a Zyrtec and then I'm going to be 100 percent 100 fine.

Uh, such an emotional story. Yeah here. I am blaming it on allergies when we all know I'm just like obviously still super upset from the broccoli incident I Mean it was an emotional rollercoaster to say the least. So like here: I Am a grown man but because of society I can't confront my emotions the way I need to here I am trying to blame a four-month-old cat who does nothing but bring joy into my life when in reality I'm just pushing off blame and I just.

it's probably because I didn't get enough attention as a child and I think this story symbolically represents myself in all reality who who internally doesn't feel like a lost toddler looking for broccoli in a grocery store? So I think that's what's going on I think it's if I were to do a psychoanalysis of myself I think the event was triggering and it represents life as a whole. Um, so that's probably what it's about Andre hey uh, can we talk about stocks? you wouldn't get in? Andre Not all of us grew up in a household where we got enough attention at grocery stores. When buying vegetables, look at you hoity toity showing off. look at me.

my name is Andre My parents love me I Love my parents. Everything is great you know Andre We have a whole separate live chat and everyone's there but you and we just talk about how you're not a bad guy. but we're all a little sick and tired of how great your life is because honestly, I'm gonna say this. it makes you unapproachable.

It makes you unapproachable that your life is so great and once again, none of us are hating on you for that. But just dude. You just don't get it. Man, sometimes life is a little tough you.

you're trying to come off like no look at me. I was lost in a grocery store too as a child. Yeah, you're just saying that now because you the way you're acting right now, you seem very much like a person whose parents always had eyes on you in every single grocery store and we've all been very worried about how to approach her on this particular subject. But obviously with the stressful evening I Had the morning I'm having right now with a cat attacking me biologically and also physically I Just I I Don't have the emotional barrier I need to to not tell you what's going on Andre This is the truth.

This is absolutely the truth. All right. Where he got. he was lost in a Whole Foods Andre We can tell you were never lost in a grocery store as a child and it really shows.

It really shows in how you're acting right now. Foreign, Where are we at? What's even happening today? It's going to be one of those days. we have a lot to talk about. Ken Griffin We're going to be doing his whole live thing at 10 A.M We can review the wholesale numbers that came out the retail sale numbers that came out, and the jobless numbers that came out.

AMC completed its dilution. so it's actually up a little bit in pre-market right now. I believe I Think it's up eight percent less on my check? It is now up 8.5 Yeah. I Guess if you want to be logical about it, you can point out how we're still below where we were when they announced the dilution.

Uh, but hey, that's just you being a Negative Nancy is Matt on his period Z Trades that's oddly offensive I Recently was taught on Tick Tock that men can in fact have periods. Um, it's not. It's not just a chick thing anymore. We're all.

we're all the same. We're all the same and we're all different and special. But the same. We're all the same in the fact that we're all different and special and unique.

and 100 right. That's life. That that. that's life right there.

All right. Should we start the show, Can we? Are you guys done screwing off this morning? This is a serious Finance show. This is a show where we talk business, We talk numbers, we talk trading, and there's no time for tomfoolery. Malarkey Shenanigans The Major three.

There's no time for any of the major three once again. For those of you who are like whoa, why is Matt getting angry right now is because I'm seeing a lot of tomfoolery, a lot of malarkey, and a lot of shenanigans. I'm seeing the major three in here day in and day out and I've had enough with it I've had I'm I'm to my Wit's End I don't know what that means but uh I I want to say that? Oh, speaking of cool words and stuff I've learned about I guess back in, like the old age uh, people used to call their hands their daddles I think it is daddles daddles daddles. Oh wait I don't want I think it was daddles dattle.

How would I look dattle? It was like an old-timey daddles meaning hand. Yeah, dattle plural dattles slang. It's absolutely like it was popular way back in the day. So uh, slaying obsolete.

like uh I want to know the time? Northern England Battle Like how sick would that be? If you're at a bar and you're about to get in a fight and you're like you want to catch these daddles I Think we should bring it back? Uh, slaying obsolete. The hand or fish use the phrase tip us your dattle meaning give me your hand. So I also learned that yesterday. so maybe I shouldn't be complaining about how absolutely horrific my evening was because I learned about slang words from however long ago.

uh I wish it had the time period that this was used. but imagine dude like oh, like imagine if we were listening to a UFC fight and all of a sudden Joe Rogan gets on. He's like, and he just clocked him with the right dattle like it sounds so much cooler. So much cooler.

So I just want to bring that up. So no matter where this show goes, no matter where the show goes, you guys can't say you didn't learn anything because I don't think a single person in here knew that Daddle was an old-timey obsolete slang way to say hand and or a fist. So whatever it is, you learn something so you cannot leave the show pissed off. Well, you could leave the show pissed off.

Obviously, that's your right. But you can't say you didn't learn anything because you now know dattle Dattle dattle. there was, um, it was actually a really cool Tick Tock It went over all these old slang words that we should totally bring back and was another one for drunk. Uh, half-rated half rat, half rat, half ratted meaning drunk I think it was half-rated half rats Tipsy mildy drunk greens half rats Tipsy Melody drunk I want to know how to use it I'm half rats Oh I'm ratted brother uh, a person ratted a person who is drunk or drinks habitually to excess.

uh in yeah, cited. uh, a heavy drinker. so ratted, half ratted I got so ratted last night. Um, just another one.

You could use just a just another one just just sharing the interesting things I find on the internet. but I guess we should get to the show because it is almost. It's almost time for the show. This is like talking to my grandpa.

We should bring it back. I think they had some things that were like spot on yeah after I got after I caught a couple daddles last night I got half rotted uh Matt Have you researched good and glad? Nope. It is on my to-do list though for this week. I'm obviously I was pretty deep into old Victorian era slang.

Um, which is a common aspect of what I do at night. All right. Well, now that we're done with the Malarkey, the shenanigans and the tomfoolery, we should talk about the market. We should talk about the Market Stock Futures climb as Wall Street eyes another inflation report which came out at 8 30 a.m ET Let's give this the old reload.

So a couple things happened today before that. so at 8 15 we got an update from the ECB. They made an interest rate decision at 8 15 this morning. The world was expecting them to keep their interest rate at 4.25 but surprise surprise, it came in at 4.5 percent.

Uh, on this news, the market actually popped. But I want to show you what happened here? Boom Dollar ripped at 8 30. that's because of a different report. but right here is the 815 report.

So we have two things today that cause the dollar to go a little bit crazy. 8 30 was the reports out of the U.S But 8 15 got things going with the ECB decision. so pass that. core retail Sales: The forecast was 0.4 came in at 0.6 Uh, retail sales themselves came in at 0.6 and we were expecting 0.2 on CNBC, they were expecting 0.1.

So retail sales coming in a little bit higher than expected. So uh, maybe not the best sign for inflation. And then more evidently than not, the best time for inflation is right here: PPI The Producer Price Index Yesterday we got the Consumer Price Index Today we got the Producer Price index. The forecast was point four percent for month over month.

reading came in at 0.7 So retail sales a little higher than expected inflation a little bit higher than expected in producing and also representative of inflation in a general sense. and then initial jobless claims coming in pretty much as expected. So the ECB press conference is going on right now. But with all this, I'm a little bit shocked.

I Mean the dollar going up isn't the biggest surprise, but looking at what's going on with the S P 500 if it ever opens. So let's go back a little bit. Where is 8 15. So 8 15? It popped on the ECB decision and then right here.

Uh, we obviously came down into the 8 30. at first the reaction was negative, which the fact that we came in a bit hot made sense to me. but going the way of yesterday where we end up popping on it. so uh I just want to be the reminder of yesterday that yes we did get this report that at first the reaction was negative and the market sold ended up popping I think a V-shaped like response that shocked a lot of us and then we ended up getting a sell-off in the clothes.

so be careful they might be setting up to have that type of choppiness and craziness once again. I Am not going into today confidently bullish. I'm not going into today confidently bearish. The Market's looking good right now.

I mean we're just below 449 If you're looking on the daily chart, that's actually close to a pretty nice breakout level. Oh quick shout out. This is the kind of stuff that I usually put in locals. but I do want you to know that there's a downside Gap Little opportunity today.

Uh, a full dollar 447.71 That is the high from yesterday we are going to be opening most likely just below 449. If We Hold here for the next 30 minutes. But pay attention to this because there's a downside gap of opportunity to 447.71 Not guaranteed, but very high odds play. we are not seeing that in the NASDAQ uh, the NASDAQ not going as up as much as the Spy But anyway, with this by uh yeah, obviously that's an interesting play of the day if there's a little bit of bearishness and you want to ride that Trend you could be targeting that.

But if we hold Above This 448 449 level. that's interesting because there is an upside Gap fill to 449.17 So what's that about 50 cents away right now? and if we get above and hold above that, my next Target would be closer to 450. it's a technical level, it's a key psychological level. But anyway, those are the upside and the downside levels I'll be looking at for the overall market and a little bit of a update of what happened in Europe this morning and also what happened in terms of the U.S China Cuts bank's Reserve ratio to Aid recovery The People's Bank of China The Pboc said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio.

the Rrr cubed for all banks except those that have implemented a five percent Reserve ratio by 25 basis points from September 15th. The move came after the world's second biggest economy has struggled after the post-pandemic recovery faltered. Um, so we know I've been talking about this at a like a lot. There's a lot of little signs that add up to some pretty serious signs that China's economy is maybe not trending the right way.

A little bit weaker than some of the big, especially. Oddly enough. U.S Wall Street Participants would probably want you to know or believe everyone's worrying about China, but the real pain is coming from the FED Uh, I guess I Feel like for me personally, I'm equivalently worried about both. I Mean they both need to be considered for all the worries about potential Global spillovers from China's economic troubles.

It's actually the U.S Federal Reserve that's inflicting pain on much of the world at the moment. The reason? Although financial markets have been pricing in rate cuts for the latter part of 2023, which is not going to happen, why do the market I Mean we don't have to turn back the clock that much to get analysts like people who this is their job saying oh, we're totally going to get rate Cuts in 2022. at the start of 2022, when we were doing the rate hike cycle, there were already predicting the cuts at the end of the year that started 2023 and from the get-go that was insanity. And this is the same level of insanity.

We are not going to get rate Cuts in 2023., we're already in September We're still talking about one more rate hike in November and they think we're gonna get what rate Cuts in December that would? It's not gonna happen. That's crazy. That's Malarkey That's tomfoolery. That's Insanity.

It's become clear that the U.S interest rates are likely to stay high as the threat of a recession recedes, but U.S Inflation continues to show signs of stickiness, particularly in services and shelter. That's where the sub sectors of inflation that are just not going the direction that the FED wants it to go. Investors are coming to grips with the idea that the Federal Funds rate could remain at the current five percent plus level, the highest in 22 years. well into next year.

Most likely will, Many middle income and developing nations are having to delay plans for cutting rates, even if it means curbing growth. Because the risk of triggering destabilization capital outflows, it's hard to decouple completely from the FED Countries are feeling the effects of the Fed's actions in various ways. higher. U.S rates make dollar denominated assets more attractive, sucking money out of the markets and causing their currencies to depreciate.

This Dynamic adds to the inflation pressures and makes it harder to pay back debt when issued in dollars. it's referred to as counterparty risk. or it's an aspect of counterparty. risk is probably the most accurate way to say it.

But yeah, we see the dollar Index popping. Remember, this isn't just the US dollar, this the dollar. Index Dixie dxy is tracked by the dollar versus the basket of other currencies. And within that basket, it's mainly.

The Euro has about 50 waiting and then right after that. second within the basket is the Yen third is the pound, and there are other things in the basket by the time you get past number three. Who gives a? But anyway, the Dollar's popping dollar Having serious strengths on a relative basis, the US dollar is strengthening relative to other currencies and that's what the article was just talking about. If the dollar is becoming more expensive and there's other countries doing business with that currency, and they have to pay off U.S debt.

Well, the debt's technically even higher because of the exchange rate, so just something to consider. Let me up or I guess. Update this page to see if anything's changed, but with the CPI update now the PPI and retail sales 97 chance that by the time we get to Wednesday September 20th, there is no rate hike for us. We're currently at 5.25 So they're saying 9 97 chance that we stay there.

Now where the numbers get interesting is when you fast forward to the next Fomc meeting on November 1st. As of now, there's about a 40 chance of some form of rate hike looking at 5.5 and 5.75 So putting these two together 38 plus 139. So I'm rounding up to 40. And hey, for at 40, we might as well round it up to 50 50 Shot of some sort of rate hike at the November meaning not a rate cut.

We're talking about rate hike still so just wanted everyone to be a prize of that. I I In no way think we are getting a rate hike in September. Obviously crazy things could happen. We just got a surprise out of the European Central Bank.

So surprises do happen. But my base case is that we are going to stay exactly where we're at when we get to the September meeting and I think really all eyes are on the November meeting Biden to starkly contrast his economic plan with GOP Magnanomics as shut down looms I Like how we have by dynamics of Magnanomics and they all kind of just like add up to literally meaning nothing. Congress has just two weeks to pass the 12 appropriation bills and get Biden's signature. Failure to do so by September 30th would result in a government shutdown leading to furloughed workers agencies close and many essential worker programs essential programs placed in Peril The Magnomics vision to be outlined by Biden is based off a budget plan released by the Republican study committee in June I Like how so much of politics and I don't like this I'm saying this facetiously: I Actually like, particularly hate it I feel like so much of politics is really just branding and PR and not actual rules and logic and regulations and intelligent thought.

It's just like for example, the Uh Inflation bill. by Biden it had nothing to do with inflation whatsoever. It's just like what's a good name because what they do and both sides do this. I'm not saying either side is innocent of this.

In fact, I'm specifically saying both sides of the aisle are particularly guilty on this. They come up with something and then they name it in a way where if you vote against it, you look like a scumbag. Um, so the inflation reduction act. Well obviously it looks really bad if you're voting against the like inflation reduction act.

But we all know that the inflation reduction act when you look into it is has nothing to do with inflation whatsoever. So it's this weird political game where apparently enough people in the world continue to get duped and Hoodwinked by it because they keep believing it. They're like oh my God Look at all these Republicans who don't want to fight inflation when they're saying. But actually it has nothing to do with inflation and this is just one example and in reality I'm sure you guys could list a hundred.

Both sides do it. Both sides are guilty in it and it's just particularly frustrating. So today is big for various reasons. We got the ECP decision, We got the retail sales, we got the PPI We're going to get an IPO Today of arm.

Arm is in the world of Nvidia Oracle AMD Intel They help with chip design. think of the processing chips so they're going to be valued at how many billions. so uh, armed prices. It's IPO 51 per share value the company at 54 billion so it's very, very popular.

You might not know this company based on its name, but I covered this in the video yesterday. It pretty much if you have a phone, you've used products that are either designed by Arm or some in one way or another affiliated with arms. so it's a very very influential company. Maybe not in terms of its like Fame level, but in terms of industry and business arms an important one.

I Like the company I have nothing bad to say about it I myself will not be participating in this IPO today just because I've been burned on so many IPOs that you only have to touch an oven a hot oven so many times before you learn your lesson. So I wish all the success to all of you who are per like participating in it. I want you to crush it I'm going to be watching it if it starts training and it's not on my screen. Please let me know about it because I do want to watch it today.

Uh, but I'm I'm watching it just for the fireworks I personally will not be trading it SoftBank resists temptation to try with for more with 4.87 billion arm IPO SoftBank Finally having a win because I feel like a lot of the news we cover on them losses and losses and losses Matt It's interesting when the bankers were trying to price this if I say Yoshi side of SoftBank had said that he wanted to do 51 a share instead of the potential 52 dollars a share to ensure a smooth debut today. but how much? it's gonna start trading way higher above 50. by the time it hits The public market. Clearly, valuation is incredibly important to people you know.

and really, um, arm does have to grow into that valuation. You know? They set out a kind of very clear story that's kind of, you know, essentially armors the foundation of everything to do with technology. You know it's at the core of pretty much every kind of processor out there, and they have this huge addressable Market uh, you know I think it's roughly about 100 times earnings if you look at the Historical reported numbers. So they need to grow, uh, sales and profits quite substantially to kind of bring that multiple down.

That's clearly what now. So Instead This Is My Doppelganger you think I look like a middle-aged man who hates my life. Yeah, I own a dark blue suit and a white shirt and yeah, I have a couple white hairs in my beard. But you're going to go on to the point.

Did you not hear my broccoli story and how? I obviously love life enough to find myself in the grocery store? That's the major takeaway that I Don't think a lot of you guys got from my broccoli story. You got to get a little lost to get a little found. You're never going to be found in this life. If you don't start off as being lost, it's it's impossible.

You cannot be found if you're not lost. So obviously you got to get a little lost to get a little found. And this guy is clearly I don't know if he's lost, but he's definitely not found. Investors are believing that they can do.

He also is better eyes than I do that just dark blue Hazel eye I'm jealous I'm jealous. Uh, quick update on today obviously I know we have about 20 minutes to go. Uh, leading. a bit bullish.

Now the Bulls have won this day 54 of the time the profit factor is 0.82 but I put leaning bullish because look at what's happened over the past 15 years. So for the first 10 years yeah, I was like coming down a little bit. not the best, but for the past 15 we've actually had a nice Trend to the upside. So I would argue from a seasonal standpoint, it's not a strongly bullish day.

but I would argue that yes, the Bulls are favored if you want this. I give it up for free I'm going to start doing weekly newsletters with this and other information in it, but Macquares.locals.com it's in the description of the video and I'm going to give you seasonality. Uh, I give you the seasonality for every day of the week, all the major earnings we're not really in earnings season right now. all the major macro economic events and reports I put that in there a quick little breakdown, some cool pictures that AI generates.

So doing all that for you, it's Free Macquares.locals.com Sign up. also. Speaking of locals, for the people who are premium members, we are now six for six. The signal um is it's looking pretty good thus far in the week: Two on Monday two on Tuesday two on Wednesday all zero DTE trades.

it was a call Credit spread on the spy and obviously yesterday we closed below 448 and then it was also a call Credit spread on the queues. Obviously, we closed below 375. So we are now six for six 100 accuracy and I don't know. I'm trying to think with only having 200 in your account, that would be the minimum requirement.

Actually, it's a little bit less than this. You would already be up about 70 80 so almost a 50 return on the count this week alone. Five things to know before that stock Market Bell goes Diggity ding ding ding today Thursday September 14th A beautiful September 14th All mixed up? Yeah. I mean the Market's just been kind of consolidating right now.

We're seeing a bit of strength this morning. Oh, it keeps going up. Please don't forget if you're just tuning in right now. First of all, demerit, you're late to class.

You should feel embarrassed. But I do want you to know that there is a downside Gap though uh, opportunity on the Spy 447-71 I'm not necessarily saying take that trade out of the gate. obviously you would first want to wait for some weakness. What's leading inflation? well, mainly has to do with shelter and services.

What are they going to say? It is? Uh, where? Rose Economists say higher gas prices while notables should be temporary. Yeah, I mean core is the issue so the food and energy is not really the problem at this point in time. arm time IPO Today the IPO season is starting to heat up. We know instacart is going to be IPO and we know uh Birkenstock is going to be ipoing.

arm is going today, so more IPOs should be from City regroup I Don't think we have the biggest city traders in here. Recruiting hit Google Google's cutting back hundreds of jobs from recruiting organizations as part of a bigger pullback in hiring to that sets to take place over the next several quarters. we're just seeing a continuation of a lot of tech companies and companies in general, either laying off people or just not hiring and letting attrition play out. Uh, so right now there's obviously some concern in the market and everyone's kind of going into more of like uh Shoring up Resources type of a time.

so just want to let you know there that we're seeing a continuation in it. CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Media Alert Citadel CEO and founder Kenneth Griffin to speak with Cnbc's Sarah Eisen on Squawk On the Street Tomorrow Thursday September 14th 10 A.m ET So our boy Kenny G Kenny G Kenny G We will be listening to it if you ask me. I Think he's trying to get a media appearance in before the Dumb Money movie comes out I Think he's gonna have some offhanded remarks about memes and squeezing and dark pools and market makers. So definitely listening to this 10 A.m We have about 45 minutes so if you're watching this right now and you're like yo I Clicked on this I didn't know you're streaming what's going on and like you're watching it after we're done.

Just fast forward I'll mark it out I'll chapter it out. Uh, so you're going to want to fast forward it if you are not watching this in real time, but we are going to be checking that out at 10 A.M Today Uh, Tucker had some interesting commentary on hyperinflation so we'll be coming back to that. but we did get a big update from the world of AMC This was posted last night and actually, if you've looked at this morning, AMC is up right now 8.7 Uh, a rarity to say for AMC that it's actually having a winning day. Uh, but here's what we have: AMC Announced today that it has completed its previously uh, disclosed at the market Equity offering that was launched on September 6th.

So September 6th is when it came out. AMC Raised approximately 325.5 million of new Equity Capital through the sale of 40 million shares before commissions and fees at the average price of eight dollars and 14 cents. So if you do some quick math on that, you know that we recently went through a 10 for One reverse split and that basically means that they sold at an average price of 81 cents. Uh, is that a good thing? I Mean the money helps them fight off bankruptcy a little bit longer.

but I don't know I understand that they need money I Totally get that. but they sold it at an average of 81 cents when you account for the reverse stock split. and then also I mean I'm interested in seeing how today plays out, but we in this time period, we're at nine dollars right now here. I'll just take it at nine, we are down 34 percent 34.

So basically, if we look at the market cap, the market cap is currently 1.3 billion. So let's just do some quick math on this to realize how much of a market cap hit. They had to raise money. So 1.3 divided by 0.66 Uh, so 1.97 minus 1.3 So basically they caused the market cap to drop by 606 670 million dollars.

So is that necessarily worth it when your company's value drops by 670 million dollars to raise 325 million? Now, obviously that might not be true by the time the Market opens and starts trading. Obviously, we could go higher and the higher it goes. Okay, maybe the trade-off is a little bit more reasonable. I'm just talking about this exact moment in time the market cap took a 670 million dollar hit when they only raised 325 million.

So that is a tough thing to swallow now. obviously. I do want to. The Market's not open yet.

We could keep ripping ripping ripping. And if we do keep ripping. AMC If it can get back up into the realm of thirteen dollars, Fourteen dollars. Well, okay, you raise money and there was no market cap hit, but we're down here.

literally made an all-time low at 705. so it's bounced off of that. But this is the this is the situation we're currently dealing with. You can see it a little bit better on the weekly chart, but it's just getting absolutely demolished right now.

Uh, it's sad to see. Sad to see so this is a bit of positive news. Uh, it's good to know that they're not being deluded. Uh uh, at the moment.

Obviously they could always start a new round of dilution, but by the time you really look into these numbers 325 million? keep that in mind. That's how much money they raise. Uh, let me look up. AMC AMC Uh, let's look at its financials and then let's on the left.

Uh. Balance Sheet: Dude, Why are there so many pop-ups on this website? Balance Sheet: Uh. Total Assets Total Assets Last report: Uh, 707 million Total assets long term 8.7 billion And then if you look at its short-term debt 1.5 billion long-term debt 11.2 billion. But the real debt? that, like you have to consider because we don't necessarily want to count these Capital leases is right here.

They have 4.8 billion in debt, 4.8 billion in debt, and they raised 325 million. Those numbers are very, very far apart. Uh, where are actually I was looking at this the other day. there Income statement: Revenue I Want to just see their debt payment interest expense.

This is how much they're paying uh on their debt. It's crazy. Uh, interest Expense: 362 million net interest, uh Expenses: 360 Mill that's how much they're paying on their debt alone. So basically, they raised not even enough money to pay one year's worth of debt.

Uh, let's actually go to quarterly on this quarterly. Yeah, the last quarter was 93 million. So if you annualize that, that's 400 million. That's brutal.

What was the interest payment? Uh, just for all of last year Interest: 340 340. So no matter how you do it, this is like the low number 30, just not actually paying off their debt. just the interest on their debt. Is we? we didn't raise enough for that like that's I don't know I'm not the biggest fundamental person I never want to cosplay as a fundamental investor Yes I do do fundamental investing, but I just kind of pick big companies that I enjoy their basic numbers I enjoy what they're doing and I know the space that they're in.

Um AMC is now forcing me to do fundamental breakdowns and Analysis on a company. Um, to learn it a bit more. And when I just look at these basic things I'm like well, you just lost 670 million market cap to raise 325 million. Which is this.

It's just like the numbers need to improve. There needs to be more movies, there needs to be more revenue, and can things improve? Oh, of course they could improve. It's just obviously that's the task that management needs to really take on and take on very seriously. Um, is they need to always just be focusing in on how do you get hundreds of millions of dollars more in Revenue coming into the door.

So I want it to be successful I want it to crush its partnership with Taylor Swift and it very well could. I'm not saying that it's not going to I'm not going to be a naysayer about it, but like I think we just need to do a better job at like understanding the the size of the debt burden and also on a relative basis like that compared to its revenue and its profit and what's going on. Because in my mind, the numbers aren't really adding up the best right now, but hopefully this is just a gully. Hopefully this is just a low and maybe maybe this concert thing is going to be more popular and maybe the success of it will bring even more top-tier artists in.

Maybe they'll start doing things with comedians. Maybe they'll do more things with sports. Uh I mean they have a lot of opportunity and I think the question is just like are they ever going to seize it I guess before I get too much into it because obviously, as I said, I'm not the biggest fundamental investor by any means. What are your thoughts on it? Uh I want to get your thoughts? Uh, just because, like maybe I'm overlooking something and like I said, this is very rudimentary in the very short term.

This is obviously positive. Uh, like clearly it's positive to know that it's not being diluted at least at this moment in time. So that's a good thing. That's why you're seeing the market go up.

uh, or AMC stock price go up but from a funnel I I Just don't necessarily understand the fundamental thesis for AMC Uh, just because I see how bad the debt is I see how bad the interest payments are? um I I just think there's better fundamental opportunities I Like being slapped uh I do like to fish down by the river. My thoughts: I want out. Well I saw most of my AMC so you're welcome I hate River All right so you guys really don't have much thoughts on this whole AMC thing. Can you make something like a cheat sheet for some Market data example: dxy up stocks down yields up uh, bonds down? What would that be? Also, others you can think of.

Yeah, I could work on that. That's a good suggestion. It'd be a little bit more complicated because you would have to also do like other environments like the dollar up doesn't always mean the stock down like the market down, so there would. It'd be a little bit of a complicated cheat sheet.

But I could work on something like that. It is. what? What are you doing, step bro. Maybe Maybe if I get some good trades in here? Uh, why would they not be liquidated portions in order to reduce the depth? portions of what? they don't own any theaters, they lease the theaters.

they, uh, definitely don't. It's not like they could sell off real estate because they don't really own real estate. The all the theaters that AMC are in, it's all leases and you can see that in the balance sheet. Um, that's like some of the debt is like just from what the lease is.

Uh, thoughts on TKO TKO That's the new uh fighting partnership thing, right? No trades, right? Emma am I getting that right that this as an association. the USC W Yeah. I'm pretty sure TKO is the parent company of pretty sure it's the parent company of the UFC and apparently there's literally zero trades in pre-market That's a little bit strange. Uh I Just want to make sure that I'm not spreading any false information on this.

TKO operates as a blank check company. It formed on the purpose of affecting a merger Capital stock I'm pretty sure this is the USC uh, which means that this will be the company that WWE is not trading anymore because they ended up buying it out. So TKO I'm pretty sure is the parent company for the UFC now the WWE and all that stuff. uh I Watch it.

I'm a fan of that I just don't really know much about the hardcore fundamentals like I don't know I mean it looks like it's growing nice, higher highs, nice higher lows. it seems like the generic Trends to the upside. um, looks like it gotta beat up a little bit there when there was no fighting. but I think the fan base is just continuing to grow.

I would have to fact check some Trends on that of checking. Just like is the UFC is the MMA getting more popular and you could probably see that with something simple just like a Google Trend search or more and more people watching fights? Uh, and if so, I mean I could totally see a reasonable, actually very reasonable, long-term thesis in the world of this because I believe it's just a growing sport. Uh, does AMC hold Niner go higher? We'll find out. We could definitely watch it throughout the day.

I Just want to make it clear: I'm no longer actively trading AMC I haven't really actively traded AMC since either 2021 or maybe early 2022. I'd have to check it. but for a year, year and a half two years now, all I've done is literally just hold my AMC stock. Um, yes, before this, you guys should all know that I've actively traded options.

You saw it. It's the streams are there. Um, but I as of right now I just own AMC stock, no calls, no puts, no short position, just AMC stock and I think there's it's It comes down to a question of capital efficiency. Obviously we all have a finite amounts of capital and I just think there's better opportunity in the market in the short term than AMC is presenting right now.

Obviously that can change from day to day. so I I might actively trade it in the future I Don't know. but right now I'm literally just sitting on it, sitting on it, sitting on it, sitting on it Matt lost his Diamond hands LOL What are you talking about? How did I lose my diamond hands if I'm sitting on the stock I have synthetic puts on AMC Dude that Travis guy is such a clown. like literally just completely misinterpreting things he's reading on Investopedia during the call like that guy.

such a joke. why not write cover calls against the shares of AMC I would do that. but you can't do cover calls on public. So for me, it was a trade-off Do I want to be able to publicly show my position to everyone? or do we I want to be on a brokerage where I could do covered calls and but then people wouldn't have their access to my position to prove that I'm long on the stock.

so it was a trade-off uh I very If I wasn't the like in the situation I am like if I was just training with no like internet, no show no influence as much as like a cringe-worthy word that is. Um, I would be doing cover calls if you're investing in something I Think it's kind of silly to not do cover calls. It's only a very rare circumstances would I agree that not doing covered calls is like a smart thing. Generally you're just lowering your cost average Like that's the effect of it.

It's just you are getting in at slowly, but surely you're collecting premium collecting premium which has the net effect of just blowing. Like why would you not do it? Couldn't you keep one chair in public and move the rest elsewhere? Uh, I could, but that sounds like a lot of work. I've already had to bump my shares from what from Robin Hood to Weeble Weeble to public I don't want to do it again. keep I'll share there, sell the rest and then rebuy on a different brokerage like I Just if anything, my my trading with AMC I'm just kind of mentally over it.

I'm much more interested in actively trading the overall Market or bigger movers like Tesla Nvidia Netflix All things that like can go absolutely Sky High or Sky low like it's just more. They have better movements. it's more of a better efficiency thing. Matt Did you even look at the dollar? I did.

but I don't know why you have an attitude about it. It's also weird that you have an attitude about it when I also already did it and talked about the dollar and how it's ripping. Uh, the Market's about to go. Ding Ding Ding Ding before that happens.

Uh, just so you know, Ken Griffin will be speaking at 10 A.M Obviously we're going to listen to our boy Kenny and just see whatever ridiculous things he has to say. Uh, we have this interesting episode from Tucker Carlson on hyperinflation. So I think that's going to be a good listen? uh and let me know, Are you bullish or bearish on the day? Please comment Dignity. Ding Ding Ding.

The casino is open. Best of luck to all. Play responsibly and if not have boatloads of fun you made like 200k in other trades in June why would he spend time on AMC Yeah, there's just better opportunity elsewhere. At one point in time AMC represented amazing opportunity.

At one point in time Jamie represented amazing opportunity. and in the future they might represent amazing opportunity again. but right now we're just not seeing those crazy movements. To make a lot of money, you need big moves, You need a lot of volatility and aim see is moving unfortunately.

just on the downside. So yeah, I could short it and make money but I also think that would cause Twitter to break. so I kind of just don't want to do it I don't know why, but it feels like a little bit just like immoral to me. Um, I'm not necessarily as much against buying puts as much as like we're like I'm really not against going long on puts uh on it I guess I could do that and make some money.

um and I guess I've always believed that I think if you want to buy calls if you want to buy puts, if you're using it, if you're buying puts as a hedge against your core position. Whatever. do whatever you want if you want to sell calls if you want to sell puts I I don't really care as much about that, but like straight up shorting AMC I don't know just gives me a weird vibe I I've never done that ever on AMC I never planned to do that I'm not gonna do that but I I guess recently there was a good argument to buy puts. There really was uh I I I don't know, probably should have but now the opportunities like probably passed.

Do you think AMC can touch a hundred as in like 10x its value from here? not in the short term. Uh, like it's possible that they can turn the ship around and take care of their dead situation. Um, it's theoretically possible, but what? I'd be holding my breath on it in the short term. No, this one said 100 cents? maybe? Yeah.

I mean AMC we'll see how it goes. but Market taking a little bit of a hit this morning I am all geared up here. Let me show you guys this: I'm all geared up with the prop account again today. Oh folks, if you want to do this prop account with me I think it's the great in between of a paper account and your actual money.

So the way prop accounts work is you trade. It's called a like a challenge a combine a demo, whatever you have to trade well enough on it and actually on top step. You can prove your success in as little as two days and if you do pass it then they actually fund your account for you to trade. uh I don't want you to think that the challenge is easy I'm now on my third attempt myself I did pass it on a different prop one that took me six attempts.

I'm attempting to do it faster, but it's by no means easy. but I think it's was just a lot less risk because you're paying to take the test and it's a small fee. In fact it's pinned to the top of chat. You'll get 60 off and if you do it great, you're funded.

You're using someone else's money and if you don't well okay, you didn't blow out your own real account. So in terms of risk reward, it's a nice in between a paper count where your asking nothing but maybe your emotional State's not right there or risking all your own money in your actual account. So I view it as a nice in between and uh, right now there is an affiliate link pinned to the top of chat in the description of the video. Become a Funded Trader If you use that link to take the test, you'll get 60 off.

It's like 40 50 bucks and also for me when I failed the first one. I got an email to take a test again for another 50 off for that. So I think it's like 20 25 bucks. Uh so check it out.

it's pinned to the top of chat. it's in the description of the video. Uh, if you guys need help setting it up, I will help you out. What's the Rev share? Once funded? Uh, let's see if we can find that out.

Resources become a partner. Our program how it works. Why? What is the trading combine? So this is when you take the test trade with products. So I'm trading Futures I'm using Ninjatrader you could also use Quant Tower Uh, where is the profit split right here? 90 10.

take home a hundred percent of your first ten thousand and then 90 after. So if you make ten thousand in profit, it's all yours trading their money and then after ten thousand, you keep 90 and they keep 10 percent so you keep the first 10K which is awesome and then after that 90 10 is still a pretty awesome split. When you're using someone else's money, they're taking the risk. you're not.

Uh so and this is all the rules on it. I think it's awesome. Um I I'm by no means a prop trading expert. this is the second one I've ever used.

This is the second month I've ever used it. Uh, I'm trying to get funded with them. so I'm more so live streaming the whole process to you guys and if you know more about it, feel free to DM me shoot me some information. happy to talk about it with you I'm always willing to learn uh but if you want to do it alongside Me Maybe you could do it faster.

Maybe we could help each other out and just like share some tips a