Foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign Good morning, Good morning it is what? Monday February 13th the day after and yet also the day before. So the day after because we have to talk about the Super Bowl I'm a little bit upset I was rooting for the Eagles and I honestly thought it was an overall pretty good game and then the end was just boring with like burning out the clock and we could talk about the whole call and not the whole call and I don't know I Think the more frustrating thing about all this is Mahomes's brother. what's his name like Jackson Mahomes and like his stupid Tick Tock dances and he's just one of the most cringe-worthy people out there. So we could chat about that, we could chat about all the UFOs and things getting shot down.

I Think we're up to number four, which is kind of crazy. We could also talk about how apparently Megan Fox is once again a single lady. um, does any of that at all have anything to do with the markets? No, but that's what I mean like that's the day after that I was referring to. Those are all the crazy things that happened over the weekend.

uh side fact that we could talk about lady later uh after the game I was kind of mad about everything and for some reason I raged downloaded the new Hogwarts game, I was just sitting at my computer and I didn't know what to do and I was just angry that I was betting on the Eagles and I lost money. So my bright idea was to be like all right, I'm gonna download Hogwarts or whatever the game is So now I have that game so we might be streaming it later on. maybe on Twitch or something I Don't know. Um, but in terms of what I mean when I say it's the day before kind of a crazy week tomorrow which is Valentine's Day don't forget that for all of you out there who may be like oh wow, I should do something Yeah, you should do something.

Um Valentine's Day tomorrow could be a bloody Valentine's Day Because we also get the CPI report, the Consumer Price Index report is coming out at 8 30 a.m ET So an hour before the Market opens, we're going to be getting the most up-to-date inflation report, at least in terms of what the government decides to give to us. That, as we've seen historically, especially over the past year, in the current like Fed rate hike cycle has had a huge impact on the market, a massive volatile impact on the market. So for any of you yoloing into I don't know short-term calls puts, just just be careful because tomorrow morning is going to be crazy but so is Wednesday morning. I Emailed this out to everyone.

so this is exactly why you should be on locals. But tomorrow morning 8 30 a.m We have the CPI report the inflation report will drop Wednesday morning once again, 8 30 A.m ET We get retail sales so kind of the strength of the average consumer. and then Thursday morning at 8 30 A.m so 8 38, 38, 30 Tuesday Wednesday Thursday we get the next jobless claims report as we do every single Thursday so still going to be a reaction there. throughout the week, we still have other Fed members speaking last week.

If we're going off any indication of what that really was, a lot of Fed members are going to be pushing the market to the upside to the downside. Most likely their conversation is going to be surrounding how many more rate hikes are we going to get, how extreme are they going to be, and most importantly, are they going to keep telling us about how great they are, and are they going to be able to pull off the soft Landing So be on the lookout for that. And then we also are still in earnings season. Not as crazy earnings season because a lot of the big name companies that most likely you pay attention to I pay attention to have already reported.

But there's still some important ones that come this particular week. So we're going to be going over all that we're going to talk about the Super Bowl We're going to talk about out the cringe-worthy nature of Jackson Mahomes and how he's vicariously living through his brother and for some reason thinks that because his brother's a massive athletic success, so is he. and it's just cringeworthy. His wife is also princeworthy.

I Don't get that, but we could talk about UFOs I Haven't been following that story too much just because I feel like emotionally I was too dedicated for the first balloon and now the fact that we've had three more things getting shut down shot down. Excuse me? I'm gonna need you guys to kind of inform me about that I Saw I see some of you guys uh, talking about the Ohio thing that's crazy too wild things going down in Ohio Ohio so maybe we'll save that for like kind of The Quiet portion of the market. Um, the new trailer dropped for the Fast and Furious X which obviously folks hashtag family, hashtag family. uh I Don't think I could watch it.

We'll probably get Dmca, but everyone needs to watch the new Fast and Ferris trailer. Oh wait, speaking of trailers, I Saw that during the Super Bowl last night. There were no really funny ads. This might have been the least comedic Super Bowl advertisement regime.

we've had. The only one that was like, kind of interesting and screwed with all this was the 2B one. I mean I don't know if you guys were actively watching it, but I think millions of TV sets across all of America and really the world were probably thinking who's changing the channel right now Um, and that one got me in my group I Thought that one was pretty funny, but other than that, the ads I thought were abnormally bad and honestly that's like half the fun of watching the Super Bowl is all the comedic ads did Budweiser even run one? Now that I'm thinking about it, the classic like Budweiser and a dog and Clydesdales did they even have one? Blue Moon was good. Ah I thought the blue moon was all right.

like just overall the Breaking Bad one was good and when they had the chips but like I'm just saying if you took all the ads and like the total comedy of however, you would personally attribute that or uh, whatever number you would give it I feel like relative to other Super Bowls this was like a particularly not funny one. so I don't know we could get into all that. But most importantly, I should probably spend the next whatever 15 minutes getting everyone prepped for what's going on today. The market announcements for today: The first major things at 11: A.M We're gonna get the New York fed inflation expectations similar to the University of Michigan ones we got last week so we're going to be chatting about that.

We'll go over the earnings. uh I Want to play some things just from the news to get everyone kind of back in the mind of the market because I'm sure most of us turned it off throughout the weekend. So hey, if you're an Eagles fan like I am, hey, let's we're living in misery together. If you are a Chiefs and congratulations to you I mean we're getting today that point that the stats surrounding Mahomes he's kind of becoming undeniable in terms of a generational quarterback.

You don't have to necessarily like him, his wife, or his brother, but in terms of his stats and his achievements, he's really kind of cementing himself as a high high quality player that's going to go down as a generational. Talent That's just kind of what the facts are. and I don't know the the both Kelsey Brothers Crack me up. But the one on that was actually probably the funniest thing when they were comparing the two quarterbacks Mahomes versus Hertz and at the end there they just put like how many Kelsey Brothers they both have in those one I Thought that was actually probably the funniest thing that happened all night any hoosil, that's what we have before we get into this.

Checker Check out what's been to the top of chat. If you want the same charting software that I have, it's called trading View pin to the top of chat, you could get a free trial. It's pretty cool. I Like the Emojis I like the alerts I like the phone app, it's awesome once again.

pinned to the top of chat. Um, but don't forget to hit the like button. Don't forget to subscribe if you like stocks. crypto Futures Options to generate gambling Me ranting about how bad I am at sports gambling or just breaking news in general, this is the place for you to be.

So with all that being said, let's see what's going on in the world today. Stocks making the biggest moves pre-market Fidelity Ralph Lauren Caterpillar and more. Five things to know: Well, we are definitely going to be getting into that. So anyway, stock futures tick higher as Wall Street tries to rebound from a rocky week.

So here's where we're at in pre-market Friday was kind of strange. Thursday We sold off pretty hard Friday was weird and it actually ended pretty decently at the end of the day, but still not much better than when we closed on. Thursday Maybe I should show you the daily chart Thursday We had a good open, sold hard all day. we opened even lower on Friday then it fought back ever so slightly.

Right now, the high from Friday was 408 44 I'll mark that out for all of you and the reason I'm doing it is, depending if we keep going, there's probably going to be maybe a decent side. Gap Fill To the downside, it looks like we're gonna right now Gap up by five cents which isn't much I mean I Do strongly believe it's going to get filled, but in terms of is it an active trade for you, that's just a really small thing to scalp and you might even have a tough time getting your fill. So pay attention to that. See where the market is right at open and if we're above 408.44 Um, obviously that's something you're going to be wanting to pay attention to for a downside Gap Fill Play But overall, the market had a decent push to the upside and then right around 7 30 we started to sell.

so I wouldn't say strong indication of where we are in the medium time frame or even in the daily time frame. I Truly believe today this week the game more so than normal, but it's kind of the Playbook All the time is just wait for the price action. I Think it's um, not advantageous for you, not profitable to try to be predictive of what's going on, especially in the macro scene. Be reactive, wait for trendline breakdowns, breakouts, wait for over extensions in the RSI and the Macd wait for the price action to set up in a situation where it's statistically advantageous for you to take advantage of it.

So for me, I could show you the seasonality of the day I can give you my best prediction of where we might go today, where we won't go today. but in reality my trades are going to be based on what the price action inherently does. and I think one of the best ways to avoid some of that chop to the upside to the downside where you're getting whips off is step away from the market for the first 15 20, 30 minutes. So pay attention to it.

but don't do any opening trades that's completely different than maybe closing trades from the day before. Completely different story. but overall, just because we're generically trending up right now I Want especially any of the new viewers to understand that? that doesn't mean the market has to go green today. We've seen this before I mean literally Thursday of last week where we saw great pre-market session and basically when it opened it just spent all day selling off.

That is 100 possible. So that's what I'm looking for in terms of let's just wait for the volatility to kind of calm down that Market opening churn, especially over the weekend, especially with everyone's Super Bowl Hangover. Let's just wait, be calm, be patient, and let's see what can come to us. so just want to throw that out there.

As of now, the Dow is slightly down, the S P is slightly up, the NASDAQ is slightly up, oil slightly down. So even though we have some red green looking a little bit like Christmas, we're not seeing a big indication if anything. I The one thing I wanted to check was the dollar. so the dollar did fall a little bit, but now it's bouncing right back.

The dollar is still holding above 103. Remember, we've been seeing an inverse relation ship between The dollar the dollar Index I should say and the overall Market Another way for me to say that is, if the dollar continues to show strength, look for continued weakness in the overall Market This isn't the best inverse correlation for my math Learners out there. I'm not saying this correlation has like an R square value of negative one, but it's probably close to negative 0.6 negative 0.7 So it's definitely an inverse relationship, but it's not a perfect one. It's not like for every green bar in the dollar, you see a red bar on the Spy you're looking at maybe a little larger time frame of which way is it one drifting because the other one's probably drifting the other way.

So inverse relationship for sure, but not the strongest correlation that is known to exist in the market. Super Bowl Ads watch 2023's biggest commercials you may have missed. so I Wanted to start with this. First of all, congratulations to all the chief fans out there.

you got another Super Bowl I'm like I'm sure you're stoked today. Good for you, good for your team I Just wanna. the ads were so bad they weren't good like I was I Don't understand how you can spend this much money I Was reading absurd stats of how much these ads cost per second. Like over a hundred K per second they're spending Millions on these ads and a lot of the ads I didn't even know what they were talking about until the final second.

and so the point that I forget it now. So was the money Worth it. And usually with the Super Bowl the goal is to make everyone laugh and that's kind of the competition of who has the most creative, most commit comedic team. and this year I I don't know.

It's like they just asked like some intern to put it into chat Gbt and come up with an idea I don't think I laughed at a single one I don't think I laughed at all I I don't know I just I remember the days where growing up what we had like crazy Dorito ones and there was like a Dorito Samurai like there's just certain ones in the past that like stick out to me and this one I don't think a singular ad maybe the 2B one where it got everyone to think that the channel was changing. That was good because I know it was to be. but I I just didn't like them. some of them I'm not saying they were all bad but most of them I did not like.

but anyway, congratulations if you're a chief said more importantly U.S shoots down a fourth high altitude object as lawmakers demand more information. So I actually want to play you a little bit of a clip on this one profile. I think I saved it I don't have any likes yet. This is where I save the things to go over with all of you is: I Just like it.

Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? This one? The object. this one over the skies down the U.S shooting down now a fourth unidentified object. this one over the skies near Lake Huron Between the U.S and Canada and Javers joins us to try to make sense. Why are we shooting down until this year? Eamon Why are there so many things that F-16 fighter jet fired a single Sidewinder missile at 2 42 P.m Sunday dropping the unknown object into Michigan's Lake Huron So far, at least there's no explanation from the military of what exactly this object was other than a description that officials provided of an octagonal object with strings hanging from it.

but with they said no discernible payload, it was traveling at an altitude of about twenty thousand people. What are your best guess? try to recover the object from The Frigid lake waters In the coming days. This unprecedented Spate of encounters began on February 4th when a U.S F-22 Raptor shot down a Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina. Then on Friday we have this military shot down like a dinosaur, a high altitude object in Alaskan airspace.

The White House described that object as flying at an altitude of roughly forty thousand feet and as roughly the same size as a small car. Then on Saturday the U.S fighter jet shot down a second unidentified object over Canada It's not clear where these latest three objects came from, who sent them or what their intent was, but it does seem clear that the White House will now be under a lot of pressure to provide some answers as the week goes on. Andrew Back over to you I Can't wait for those. Uh, amen, thank you.

We're talking obviously to unisarily or just about what if if there's an inflection point here in terms of escalation and and what you're hearing, well, look at this point, we don't know that the latest three objects were Chinese they could have been somebody else's objects. you know. There was this moment yesterday where a Pentagon official North com official was asked whether this could be extraterrestrial and said, you know they're not ruling that out You saw a spokesman oh bro, back off of that uh, later and saying there's no evidence that these are alien. But when you're throwing aliens into the conversation, you're clearly answering about every possibility out there.

So until they can pin this specifically on the Chinese government, it's sort of hard to have a diplomatic reaction vis-a-vis the Chinese government, which is saying it has no information on the other three unidentified objects. They say that the first object was a weather balloon that just errantly strayed into U.S airspace. The United States government doesn't buy that story on the first object. the last three objects, though, seem to be a total mystery.

Ender Now it's going to depend on U.S and Canadian Crews getting up into the Northern Territories where those objects were shot down at this point just what the heck this thing was and then presumably some crew is going to have to go diving in Lake Huron which is very cold this time of year to see if they can fish that thing out of the water I Think they have the Technologies and where they came from. Very cold. All right. what's everyone's best guess? Wrong answers only.

what is everyone's best guess for the three things we were shooting down that apparently we have no idea what they are I Thought this might be a little helpful. Let me go back. Are these the things I liked right here: Timeline of UFO events on Feb 2nd Chinese Balloon spot in Feb fourth Chinese Balloon shot down Feb 10th UFO seen over Alaska Feb 11th UFOs shot down over Canada Feb 12th UFO appears over China Feb 12th UFO shot down over Lake Huron it It just keeps going. It's Atlantis Atlantis We always thought they were going to come at us from the oceans, but it turns out Atlantis is even smarter than coming at us from the skies.

The skies above could be could be um, oh, before when I was complaining I suppose about how much of a cringe-worthy person uh, Mahomes's Brothers Jackson Mahomes who I guess doesn't want to be Tick-Tock star Check this guy out. Hilarious. There's his brother. Just know to look at this guy.

Look at this guy. He's trending. He is trending over his own brother. Patrick Who won the Super Bowl for doing this dumb shit wild.

Absolutely wild. And then there was one more This didn't have to do with the Super Bowl it just had to do with an absolute Savage Damn you people, go back to your shanties. So funny. the PGA As soon as you start talking about shanties, you know that I'm gonna get interested in it.

Check this out! This lady knows how to party. So hardcore. Oh Lord this is so hardcore you just have to go into the classic USA tweet uh chant afterwards. So wild, so wild.

So anyway, there's where we are with Chinese weather balloons and also UFOs and the Super Bowl and the inflation report. But potentially the most impactful to all of us is this little tidbit right here: Megan Fox might be taking off that thorny engagement ring. so among all the other crazy breaking news throughout the whole weekend, looks like Megan Fox and MGK Machine Gun Kelly might be Dunzo now I'm not a drama Channel I Just wanted to put this out there. mainly because maybe some of you think you might have a shot with Megan Fox and now that door is once again open.

But second of all, I saw the funniest tick tocks. Uh, kind of talking about Pete Davidson's PR team. So as soon as this news broke, my whole Tick Tock feed was just Pete Davidson's PR team right now and it would cut to just different comedies such as the Office or whatever and everyone like screaming and freaking out. Uh so I just thought it was absolutely hilarious and I hope that some of you guys watch this.

uh because I want you to have the same enjoyment for the absurdity that is Pete Davidson's life that I do so. Just wanted to share that with all of you and congrats if she is back on the market I Hope some lucky person in here is able to um I don't know Court her five things to know before that stock market Bell goes dingy ding ding ding today Monday February 13th the day before Valentine's Day guys I Know someone out there forgot that it's Valentine's Day Just go do something. Just go buy flowers, Buy a card, Do something. Get a teddy bear.

I'm this is your warning man. I'm trying to help me help you. It's Valentine's Day tomorrow. Don't forget it.

Don't be that guy. Just go. spend ten dollars, fifteen dollars on some chocolates and your significant other is going to be absolutely stoked. Just go get some base.

Just do something. I know how many of you in here forgot it? Let's just be honest, raise your hand. How many of you actually forgot that? it's Valentine's Day like I'm trying I'm trying to help you out I'm trying to use my platform to help you guys not forget certain things like this. You guys got it.

You could do it. You could do it I forgot. there's no reason to remember. thanks Matt Oops it's more of like I'm like stabbing a proverbial dagger in you.

You're like oh yeah, thanks for the reminder Matt that I'm not celebrating. We don't celebrate it out of principle, out of like anti-capitalistic machine of like we're not going to overpay for this BS wait, you guys have real girlfriends. Just wanted to ask you what I should do for my wife. Indeed, just get her chocolate covered strawberries.

You can never go wrong with that. All right, wake up it's Monday Yes, it seems like a very long weekend. A lot of things went down. we had UFOs we have Megan Fox going back on the market.

we have the Super Bowl but the market is about to go diggity ding ding ding in six minutes. The main thing to watch out for the earliest thing is the CPI report tomorrow. today we have new fed expectations for inflation coming out at 11 A.M and we still have some earnings. but I'll show you all that another big week of earnings.

Yep, we're gonna be getting into that. A classic. Super Bowl I Like the halftime show, the only complaint I would have is I was just surprised she didn't bring out other people, especially some of her big songs. Obviously she has big name people on those songs.

Uh, that was the one thing that surprised me is that Rihanna didn't bring out other people. That's what I liked about last year's is there was like five people who were all well known. uh, like just really well-known well-respected rappers if you remember last year's halftime show and I was just surprised that Rihanna didn't bring on someone else explaining the housing market. We could talk about that this week.

We also do get a lot of housing real estate market numbers, so of course we'll be talking about that. Watch the skies. Okay, this is just about all the alien UFO the Chinese weather balloon stuff. So anyway, here's what we have today: 11 A.M Wherever this is 11 A.M New York Fed one year and five-year inflation expectations coming out at 11.

so look for the market to have the jolt to the upside or the downside right at 11 A.M Today tomorrow Valentine's Day Also we get CPI numbers Huge Market reaction to that same thing on Wednesday retail sales 8 30 a.m Uh, remember among all this we do just get other housing stuff for example home builders index things like that coming out all week we get housing starts, building permits and Friday and nothing really too too much going on. Friday Don't forget that on is it Monday When's President's Day next Monday A week from today the market is closed February 20th the market is closed. For an observation of President's Day it's President's Day weekend coming up. Um so I Want you guys to all remember that because it's pretty important because if you're trading options, you can have one less trading day than you might expect.

So I just want to put that out there to everyone. Uh, in terms of individual companies, lots of earnings. Still not as jam-packed as it was over the last two weeks, but still important. once.

after the market closes today, we get palantir. tomorrow morning before the Market opens, we get Coca-Cola After the market closes, tomorrow we get Devin We get Airbnb. Later on in the week we get roadblocks. we get Shopify we get Roku I'm curious to see what DraftKings is going to say.

Allegedly, there were 16 billion dollars wagered from 50 million people just on the Super Bowl so we'll see how they do. curious to see what's going on with doordash and then we have John Deere to close out the week. So uh, Twilio's another one that some of you have mentioned in the past, so feel free to screenshot this. Feel free to go to at Ewhispers on Twitter in case you want to follow this account.

I Do find it very, very useful so just wanted to throw that out to all of you Trip Advisor, We'll see how they're doing. Uh, so a couple ones. Oh Krispy Kreme donuts I Just like Krispy Kreme Donuts I Like their product. Big fan of their products so we'll see how they're doing as a company.

so various things going on worthwhile to all. Pay attention to this, but big earnings yes, but not as big as it's not like we have any more like apples or Microsoft or Google Coca-Cola is huge, but they're probably the biggest one. Paramount is coming out later this week. Coca-Cola is probably the biggest company that still needs to report just taking a quick look at this anyway.

I Hope that gets you a little bit more set for today in terms of seasonality for all my math nerds out there. I Want you to know this is the seasonal bias of today? Oh shoot, um. seasonal bias: 213 Trading Day of the month Nine Over the past 25 years, the Bulls have won this day 68 of the time. So obviously the Bears have won 32 percent of the time.

The profit factor is 1.18 What's this profit factor mean for every dollar spent? that's how much money you get back. So obviously this is positive bullish. EV Profit: Factor One point 818 So the seasonal bias for quite a while was very bullish over the past two or three years. The past two years it's gotten really, really hit.

But other than that, like this is a large drawdown. But before that, things were looking really good. and I actually need to edit this seasonal bias. Obviously it is a bullish one.

I Don't know why I didn't put that word in there, but that's just for how today has performed over the past 25 years. So on the X-axis it was each individual year on the Y-axis it was the equity whether you're positive or negative. But as you can see, we were climbing up up recently. it took a big hit, but it's still in the positive territory.

Uh, positive profit Factor Good win rate. That's the seasonal bias of it. Obviously it's not absurd. It's not like it's a 90 chance or a 95 chance I Think we're gonna most likely be in some sort of weird kind of choppy hold pattern today if I really had to guess just because the CPI report is tomorrow morning.

So when we have a big report coming out on Tuesday after obviously the weekend. so Monday the awkward day in the middle I think a lot of the times you just get whips off, it whips to the top side. it whips to the bottom side. So for me I have a lot of those plays on that I Explained to you guys last week of selling a bunch of Premium I'm looking for those plays to continue to print.

Other than that, I do have some spy puts um and I kind Of want to hold those through the CPI report just I got into those last week I think I still have some Tesla puts as well, but we'll see how it all goes. I'm gonna wait to kind of review things. wait for the market to open, wait for that initial giant spike in volatility to calm down, and around 9 45 10 AM That's when I'm going to start making Ding Ding ding. the casino is open.

Best of luck to all. Play responsibly and if not, have fun, what's everyone's vote On the day the Bell just went Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding ding What's everyone's vote? red day or Green Day red day or Green Day I want to know how chat's feeling? Comment: red or green, Red or green Are you guys feeling negative? Do we have a bunch of Eagles fans in here? or are you guys feeling positive? Do we have a bunch of Chiefs fans in here? Red Red Oh you guys are definitely feeling way more red today Chiefs Won Red day greenish red, green shop My mindset right now when: I I kind of consider the seasonality when I kind of considered the fact that we're getting that report tomorrow I Think it's going to be a lot of chop I think we're gonna have weird liquidity drift to the upside to the downside and I think everyone's just kind of going to be waiting for that CPI report tomorrow morning. I Don't think we're gonna have too many people making massive massive bets today on tomorrow. In the world of retail, we might.

but remember, the people who moved the markets are these big big players. the big hedge funds the big Banks the big Pension funds I Don't think they're going to be throwing down serious dinero right now the day before. I Think they're going to wait for the CPI report and also probably wait for the Fed's commentary on how they're going to interpret the CPI report. but I guess I should review all of my positions just to see where I'm at.

Let me open up, think or swim. Let me open up thinkorswim to see where I'm at I Sold a bunch of Premium last week and my only directional exposure is some spy puts and some Tesla puts and they I think at earliest expire February 17th this Friday what is my password? uh I always forget my password for this account is that the right password looks like I might have got him. Uh, looks like we have some positivity to the upside thus far. Well let's wait.

Remember the the market open. Crazy crazy volatility. Crazy crazy volatility. What do I have Tesla Tesla puts I have Tesla oh wait March 17th I thought it was February 17th it is March 17th for my Tesla put.

So I have time on that. uh other than that I have Oh I'm gonna make money on that play. Okay, things are looking good I sold some call Credit spreads against the queues against spy uh two different Lots against Tesla and then I also have Tesla puts 175 puts for March 17th. So not the February monthlies, but the March monthlies just to give myself some time and they're actually up right now.

They're up like 10 11. so I'm feeling good about those I'm in at 785. they're currently trading at nine dollars. Whoa! Holy Shit.

Okay, yeah, that's why they're green because Tesla just took a huge hit. Uh I just want to just show you guys I don't think I get frustrated when people aren't dishonest with their positions and everything I want you guys to know exactly what I'm in. So right here cues uh, a call Credit spread I sold the 305 about the 310. That position's actually going against me ever so slightly right now.

um I think I'm down 60 bucks on it the Spy this one is. It was more of a teaching point I Just got in this very quickly I sold the 430 I bought the 431 for Feb 17. this one's pretty much done I've collected almost as much money as you can from this play. That's why it's up 86.

Obviously, you're Max when you're doing a call Credit spread is 100 so there's not much more money I can make on this play it Tesla's a little bit more interesting I did Feb 17 call Credit spread and I also did a March 3rd call Credit spread for the first one I uh sold the 217.50 bought the 227 for the second one I sold the 235 and I bought the 240. As you can see right now, those are both doing pretty well. and then in terms of my directional BET right here I have some Tesla puts for March 17th, those are currently up 18. So overall, um, we're standing the open p L on the day is up around 380.

uh I took a lot of profit on Friday of last week we I had some spy of some meta I was just selling premium and the reason that I've been a little bit more I suppose hell bent on talking about call Credit spreads and selling premium is because I think there's too much of an effort right now and too much of a push in the world of retail of playing these Lotto degenerate plays I like it I do it myself. That's why I have Tesla puts. That's why I have spy puts. but I don't want people to think that from a stat standpoint.

you should be doing that with a hundred percent of your account 100 of your time. that's more of your lotto money I view it like this: I think you should do very strong, statistically backed good risk to reward trades and then out of those profits you make you save a percentage of your profits for the fun ones and the fun ones. I Wouldn't be expecting those to hit all the time, but when they do hit, it's fun. Like I Don't want to be here and be that guy that's like you should never do these to generate pets.

That's something. No, it's fun as shit. Like when people argue that you shouldn't take those random Lotto plays, you shouldn't take them all the time. because if you do it, you're eventually going to blow up your account.

But I'm right there with you folks through and through. I Need to get myself a degenerate play once in a while. Just I don't know to feel something to get my blood pressure jacked up. It's just fun.

Like I Get it? It's just more of the ratio of your account and the time that you're doing it. There's a way to still play these lotto-esque plays where the odds aren't like as horribly bad as they normally are if you're doing like a zero DD and even that if you want to play Zero DTE I'm not your mom I'm not in charge of your money if you think it's fun. if that's what gets your rocks off, hey, have at it. But there's still just a responsible way to do it in terms of its size relative to your account.

like the BET size of the degenerate play relative to your account. Uh, but the Tesla play is printing right now. Holy shit, the Tesla play is really pretty I'm up 25 on that. We'll see if this keeps going.

Uh Rumble Thoughts: Yeah so Rumble got really beat up on Friday and I think it was an overreaction and now it's already bouncing back I'm in Rumble I haven't actively traded it I just invested in it. but what I want to do is actually start selling covered calls against it just so I can teach you guys more about covered calls. I Also think rum is a good one to start learning the wheel strategy I Know a lot of us, we've had discussions of theoretically: what is the wheel strategy? how does it work in practice or in theory? I Want to show you how it works in practice. So rum is a good one just because it's price per share.

It's not that elevated. It's below ten dollars right now, so you're not going to have that big of a capital requirement to continue to sell. uh, cash secured puts. And then if you get hit, well, I wouldn't mind getting hit on that because I don't mind owning rum.

and then if I own rum, you could sell cover calls. cover calls pick elevated values and if you get hit, okay, great. You take the premium and you just go back to the wheel strategy. You go back to sell selling cash secured puts.

So rum. We've talked in theory about this wheel strategy of selling puts. Selling puts. Selling puts.

You get hit. You own the stock, you sell calls, You sell calls, You sell calls. You eventually get hit. Then you have to go back to selling puts.

And that's what the wheel strategy is in a 15 second tldr. Um, and a lot of the times. One of the issues I see commonly with retail is you don't have the uh, appropriate Capital size to do it with stocks because basically you have to have the money in your account. That's a hundred shares of that stock.

So it's more feasible to have the money in your account for 100 shares of rum which is priced below ten dollars, then a hundred shares of something like Tesla that's priced at 190 dollars. Obviously, we there are certain. I guess Capital stipulations To pull off some of these strategies: Are you still doing the challenge with Martin scrolling. If so, how's this going? No, that ended a while ago and no one won.

Neither of us doubled our account. Any chance you can explain, credit spreads happily happily, happily happily. How about this? Um, yeah. Okay, let's explain credit spreads right now.

here's the credit spread. Here is. uh, let me get rid of. let me get rid of all these lines away.

A credit spread can either be done with two calls or two puts. So first, let me explain it with calls and then obviously it would just be perfectly inverse and that's what it would be with puts. So here's what you do: A lot of the times when people are like I want to sell premium I want to sell premium. One of the biggest issues is their account size.

They don't have the necessary account side to sell these cash secured puts to do naked calls. These undefined risk plays. So a lot of times with retail you look for another alternative if that is possible. Maybe when you have more Capital restrictive accounts.

So what is a credit spread? A credit spread involves simultaneously buying a call and selling a call. or buying a put and selling a put. So the one that you would sell whether a call or a put is going to be closer to your price. So let's say you're working looking at the spy and you're like, you know what I see how things are going and maybe I'm not the most sure, but I feel confident that it's not going to be above 425.

you target 425 and you're like I just don't think the Spy is going to be above that. By let's say the March monthlies which is right here. So I'm going to drop a vertical line. Let me get rid of these for now just to not confuse everyone.

So this is what we're looking at right here by this date: March 17th, Friday March 17th Also known as the March Monthlies. You think hey, I Either think the Spy is going to go down, you can think that the Spy is going down. You could think that the Spy is going sideways, or you could even think that the Spy is going up. You just think it's going to be below 425.

that's it. as long as it's at 4 24.99 This is the mindset that you would be at. this is once again for a call Credit spread. What you would do is like okay, you pick the date that you care about aka the expiration date For this example, I'm just saying Friday March 17th and then I just arbitrarily picked this number.

but whatever number you think it's going to be below I Think whatever. In this example, the Spy will be below 425 by March Friday March 17th J You would just sell that call. That's what you could do if you have a bunch of spy in your account. but a lot of the times like to sell one call.

you'd have to have a hundred shares of spy of the ETF spy. Let's say, you don't have that in your account. Maybe your account's not big enough to do it well. One way you could get around that is not having to own this buy is you could just then right here let me get it closer.

you could buy the 426 so you sell the lower one. That's why it's a credit spread. You sell the 425, you buy the 426. So your max theoretical profit in this scenario is the difference between the two premium.

So you're going to sell one for a higher value because it's closer. So let's say you sell the 425 for 30 cents and you buy the 426 for 10 cents. So the net difference 30 minus 10. Well, you're That's why it's called a call Credit spread because your credited money When you create the position, you sell the 425, you buy the 426.

Both our calls both have the expiration date for Friday the 17th the first one because you're selling it, it's going to be a net credit. The second one because you're buying it is a net debit. But the net debit has a smaller magnitude than the net credit, so you keep whatever the differential is in this example. I just made I pulled these numbers out of thin air.

You sold the 425 for 30 cents, you bought the 426 for 10 cents. The difference is 20 cents. That's your max theoretical profit and you get the max theoretical profit. In practice, when you get all the way to this date, if your prediction was right, it can go up.

You just need it below 425. it could be at 4, 24.99 or all the way down and you're going to get your money. Now the max risk in this scenario for those of you are like okay I see the profit, but like what am I risking. In this scenario, the max risk is computed by the difference between the two strike prices.

So 426 minus 425 so one dollar and then from that you would subtract the premium you got. In this scenario, you got 20 so it's a dollar minus 0.2 So in this scenario you are risking eighty dollars per call Credit Spread The risk once again is defined by the difference between the strike prices and then you subtract the credit that you receive for creating the vertical. So 426 minus 425 equals one one minus the credit in the situation which was 0.2 So you are looking for a Max theoretical gain of 20 cents and a Max theoretical loss of 80 cents. So twenty dollars versus eighty dollars.

This is all for a call Credit spread and then if you were to do it with a put credit spread, let's just say you're like, okay, well I think that the Spy is going to be above 380 by the same date so you would once again sell the closer one because you want the larger credit and then you would buy a farther out one so you would sell the three or the 380 and then you would buy the 379. Once again, the risk is the difference in between the two strikes minus the premium that you get and the premium that you get is defined by how much are you able to sell the first one for minus the differential of how much you have to buy the second one for if you do this simultaneously if you're like dude I love these call Credit spreads I love these put credit spreads if you simultaneously do a call Credit spread and a put credit spread which is basically saying hey, I think it's going to be below 425 and in this example above 380, that's actually known as um, you're I believe it's an iron Condor if someone wants to correct me I don't know they have so many names for this I believe this is technically an iron Condor when you have a strangle on both sides or is it just a straight up strangle, they have so many goddamn names for this. But what it is inherently like, you could apply whatever you could call it the fucking Jimmy Neutron Brain blast3000 for all I care what you're doing is a call Credit spread and a put credit spread and you're just I don't think it'll be above this and I don't think it'll be below that and then if you want to look into the names of that, um, I'm pretty confident that when you set up a strangle like this, it's referred to as an iron Condor But that's when you get into the game of like I have an Iron Butterfly I have an iron butterfly with a broken wing I have depression. You could call it whatever You want, but at the end of the day you're just selling premium.

The Spy is popping on this actually now. uh, what's the dollar doing? Is the dollar dropping? The dollar is dropping. That's what. I got the Jimmy Neutron brain for last three thousand.

Yeah, you could fucking call it when it it doesn't matter the name. you're just either buying premium or selling premium and then people just apply ridiculous names to it. Is there? All right? First of all, are there any follow-up questions on that before things get crazy with the intraday trading and whatnot? Um, any questions about call Credit spreads? Any questions about put credits, friends? Any questions about credit spreads in general. Remember a call.

Current spread involves two calls, A put credit spread involves two puts the two calls The two puts in either of the scenarios, you use the same expiration date, you sell the closer number the one with the higher premium, and you buy the farther out one that's going to have lower premium. Your max theoretical return in this situation is whatever the net credit is and you get that net. Credit In the call situation, if you're above the if you're below the lower strike, you don't want it to exceed it by the expiration date. and then for the put credit spread, you want it above the higher number.

Um, your max theoretical risk is the difference between the two strike prices. And then you also want to subtract your premium Factor Max theoretical risk if you choose a different if if you choose a different expiration date like let's say you sell one call and then buy a different call. that's a higher strike, but like farther out now you're talking about a diagonal instead of a vertical. um I'm just trying to think of any like, maybe potential follow-up questions you have to this maybe you might be thinking okay I like this, but how do I even get started? Where's a realistic point for me to pick the strike like you in the example I use 425 is that a good one is 380 a good one.

How far out should I go? This is going to require some like back testing for you and also to understand that people with different accounts are going to use different strategies. People with different risk tolerances are going to use different strategies. But I think a really good rule of thumb is to start around like the 20 Delta the 15 Delta For those of you who don't know what Delta is, it's a Greek value that is important in the world of options. and basically it's just saying the chance of being in the money.

So if you are looking at a 20 Delta like a 0.2 Delta there's only a 20 chance theoretically based on the current volatility that that will be in the money. So that's what you want because if There's only a 20 chance of it being in the money, well, you want it to be out of the money because you sold premium. so you're taking an 80 chance of you getting that money. Um, so that's a decent place to start.

Like once again, you're going to want to kind of finesse it to what's best for your personality, your risk tolerance, your account size. another one that you can look in terms of expiration. There's a decent rule of thumb that people kind of start looking 30 to 45 days out. So if that might just be like I'm not saying that This is Gospel and this is how you have to do it.

but I think a decent way to get started with this type of call. Credit spread and put credit spread stuff is: look about 30 to 45 days out. look at a 15 Delta a 20. Delta Uh, and then maybe when you're at 50-ish percent profit like when you've already because Theta Decay is working in your favor when you're selling premium when you've retained about 50 of your max theoretical.

Maybe just close the position because then you're getting away from tail risk and you could just roll it into another one. I I Think that's a decent place to get started? I I Don't want it to sound like this is exactly what you need to do in the best system out there, but I think that's a good place for you to like? Start learning a little bit more about it. Can you show the trading platform where spreads are chosen? Um so I've been recently. This is kind of interesting and an awkward moment for me as a content creator.

Um, recently. Okay, think about it like this: if you are selling a premium and you're gonna get 20 bucks, let's say let's say you, your spread on the Spy was a dollar and whatever for the profit differential, the credit differential between the credit and the debit was 20. Uh, so you Max theoretical gain is 20 and because it was spread by a dollar, your max theoretical risk is a dollar minus 20. So you're looking at eighty dollars as your max theoretical risk your max theoretical gain of 20? That's cool.

but all of a sudden if you're paying a commission of three dollars which is common to open and close the position roughly in the world of three dollars, Well, now you're talking about the fact that 15 of your max theoretical gain is being lost to commissions. So over the weekend I was kind of looking around to see who has the best commissions for options trading and I came across Weeble which I've used Weeble in the past I've been affiliate with them in the past and then when we learned a little bit more about payment for order flow I was like okay I don't want to use this and at the time that I ditched Weeble they didn't allow you to trade verticals, you were just buying premium. you were either buying calls. uh, you were buying puts or you could do covered calls I don't even know if you could do cash secured puts.

But then I found out that recently on Weeble they let you do verticals for no commission. So all of a sudden in my scenario where you might have three dollars in commission and twenty dollars in theoretical Max profit. Well, 15, that's a large amount of your max profit that you're spending on commissions. But then I found out that Weeble apparently you pay no commission to trade verticals.

so I have not traded a single vertical on Weeble but I just wanted to throw that out there to all of you. Um, just I like it blew my mind and I don't know if their fills are bad or anything like I'm gonna test it out because right now I think when I trade on I I've been using thinkorswim and I think it's about like two bucks to open and close and same on interactive brokers. But if when you're going for a high accuracy, low profit trading strategy in terms of magnitude like low percentage, you you have to care about your commissions because the commissions could represent a big aspect of your profits. Um, so it might be more useful to utilize this type of methodology on a commission free brokerage.

Um, so I wanted to put that out there I wanted to see. but like I said of how I started this off of like an awkward moment for me I've talked a lot of shit on Weeble uh and once again, I'm not going to trade any equities on Weeble if I choose to do it if I choose to test it because all of their Securities training is still payment for order flow. But I mean all of options trading I Want this kind of well known out there? All of all, all like 100 of option trading is payment for order flow. There's no such thing as lit exchanges.

Um, the entire options world only operates through the world of rebates and payment for order flow. Uh, it's a whole different Market it's a derivatives Market you the what you know about Market Structure in terms of the world of equities should not be applied to options. It's a completely different beast. and basically, if you're training options anywhere, it doesn't matter if it's Robin Hood Weeble Interactive brokers.

Any of this, they're all still being paid to send it to a certain Market maker. There's no such thing as a lit Exchange in the world of options Market making and part of that is because it's a single dealer. Market If you've never heard of the term Single dealer Market it goes like this: let's say I'm trading Tesla right now I'm buying and selling Tesla shares. You're buying and selling Tesla shares.

There's a theoretical chance that you and I can meet each other on a lit exchange such as the NASDAQ the New York Stock Exchange IEX whatever the list goes on and on. or maybe we're getting it to Citadel or we're going to a dark pool or whatever. anything like that. But there is a chance that you and I could be trading against each other.

I could be buying Tesla and you might be the person who sells me. Tesla Um, that's a multi-dealer Market Options is not like that. If you're buying or selling options, you're always playing against options market makers. you're always playing against the house.

If I buy a Tesla call today right now and you're selling a Tesla call, there's no chance I am buying the call off of you. If you sell it, you're selling it back to the options Market Maker If you buy, you're buying it off of the options Market Maker Options Trading is a single dealer Market You Maybe a good analogy with this is if you're playing options, you're playing blackjack. You're You're playing always against the house. Well, if you're playing with stocks, well, sometimes you're playing against the house, but then other times you're playing against other Market participants.

More like poker. So imagine poker, but the dealer also has a hand in that I Don't know. the metaphor is kind of getting broken here, but I Just want you guys to know that who is the options Market Maker: there's various ones. Um, I was talking to some people over the weekend.

Citadel is still the biggest one, but there's other ones I Think a Sig is one. I think like IMC maybe Wolverine Uh, Citadel is still the biggest one. But my point in all of this is the fact that if you are trading options, you are exclusively trading against options market makers. It's a derivative market.

And yes, there are some structural similarities with the Securities market in terms of like equities, but there's also very clear differences. So if you're trading options, my point in all this is, there's literally no way for you to avoid this concept of payment for order flow or rebates. There's no way, because that's how that whole Market is set up. I Just want that out there.

A better analogy would be Blackjack Well, Blackjack is the equivalent for options market. and I was saying well, if you're playing with equities Securities Like stock, that's more like poker where you're playing against other players, but you're also simultaneously playing against the house. And that's where that metaphor breaks down. Uh, but it's the difference between a single dealer market and a multi-dealer market the day before.

Tuesday That's the day before. What? The day before we get the inflation report. We're gonna get some big economic updates. so Tesla's getting crushed right now.

but the Spy is going up dollars going down. the cues are going up. so Tesla's just having a really rough day. Thus far, a really rough day.

Equities is like blackjack with other players at the table. No, that's not a good one because equities you can play against other players options is like blackjack with other players at the table, but you're still playing against the house. Um, equities you can trade against Like Right now, there is a theoretical chance that if you buy Tesla stock, I might be the person selling used Tesla stock. if I happen to be selling Tesla stock, the chance of that actually happening is slim to none just because of retail wholesalers and how prevalent they are in our current system.

and a lot of people are still training Securities on things like Robin Hood and Weeble so they're getting directly routed to something like Citadel foreign, the cues having a decent open, the Spy having a decent open Tesla do I just want to take my Tesla profits because of the abnormality right here I'm up 21 on Tesla but I have a ton of time I have till March 17th I'm up 25 I might let it ride for a little bit I'm gonna let it ride because Tesla still seems a little weak to me. My spy puts are getting destroyed right now. Uh, absolutely destroyed. My Tesla puts are printing my spy puts getting absolutely destroyed.

What are my thoughts on that gas? Nakas has been getting absolutely destroyed lately. Let me get rid of all this. Um, and I think we're announcing a little bit of a reversionary bounce but I wouldn't buy it I think the main play on that cash just because of basic supply and demand things. It was to go against it when it first.

well no now it's even going down even more. It's Chasey the main play was back here in late. December If you wanted to play Nat gas, it was right here. Uh, Tuesday the 20th, the 21st, the 22nd in here.

when this broke down, that was the time to bet against that gas and it would have been continuing to play out right now. I don't want to catch a falling knife. so I don't think it's smart to go long and if you're trying to short it, you're already chasing it because it's already died. So much so, the way I look at the market and what I'm comfortable with with my risk tolerance and my account size.

I Don't think natural gas has an active play right now I think you're too late to the party to short it and I think it's very dangerous to try to go long just because it like it's catching a falling knife and I haven't seen that strong of a reversion I would rather be buying it after the Bulls are already trying to push it back up. but Nat gas has just been getting its teeth kicked in. Oil had a nice bounce I Got really worried here on Monday February 6th. so a week ago when it broke below 72 for a second I was like uh, am I gonna have to cut my oxy position but then I got very lucky with this bounce back up and I'm really looking for oil to battle it out at 82 and see if it can get a push above there.

and then I would love to see what happens around 90. the Spy is pushing today. Thoughts on MJ is a long investment. Looks super cheap right now.

so MJ is an ETF MJ is an individual company. MJ is an ETF tracking the the devil's lettuce sector. Um. I Like it, not necessarily on a fundamental standpoint.

I Just believe eventually the Federal government is going to leave legalize marinara here in the U.S So obviously that would be it's gonna do well from there. The question is, are the current companies that have exposure in the MJ ETF going to survive until that point? Once again, eventually I Think Devil's lettuce takes off. The question is, do the current companies have enough of a cash stockpile to survive until that unknown date? Matt Is promoting locals so much? What's so special about it? That's just where I post my trades. That's my community.

I Don't know where we talk about sports betting, my trades, random memes, and that stuff. uh Microsoft is moving well, it should be I mean Apple's look at yeah apple Microsoft it's just Tesla that's really lagging which when I see this type of a discrepancy when I see the Spy ripping when I see the cues ripping when I see Microsoft ripping when I see apple ripping when I see Amazon ripping when I see Google almost ripping uh what else do we have when I see him video ripping uh Nvidia is sold, then bounce back Tesla is representing a clear amount of weakness right now. so if it starts to bounce I might just take my profits on those puts and then get back in at a higher cost because it's it's definitely a severe underperformed right now. Hi Matt does Bbby still have the opportunity to run up? Well, of course it could.

Like it's not like there's a rule that's stopping. if people choose to buy it at a higher and higher price, they're gonna buy it at a higher and higher price. Um, I wouldn't buy Bed Bath and Beyond as an investment by any means because it's heading towards bankruptcy. it's dying like we get these wild days because something might get filed and then there might be more shorts and then people buy to squeeze the shorts.

But it depends on how you're looking at this. This is a great active trade, but I don't look it as an investment. We know they're trying to go like it's going towards bankruptcy. Um, if I had to play this I would wait for big pumps like this and just buy puts and let it get absolutely trash.

I Mean that's Bed Bath is a trash investment. What about Mullen how's that one doing? Speaking of trash, Investments Uh, Mullin Popped died. might be gearing up for push one two three, maybe push number number four if you do do it. I would be risking this recent low so it's at 37.

I would go in at 33 personally. but also on more of a personal note: I don't like Mullen whatsoever. Uh, so I just wouldn't really trade it I don't like trading penny stocks penny stocks or penny stocks for a reason. They're absolute trash.

so I wouldn't be touching that one. But in terms of just like the chart setup, it pushed, it came down. It did put in a higher low. we broke above it.

So if you're okay with risking four cents which is what 12 on this place so it's not the closest risk, you might get another pushback up there. Uh, what's another one that has gotten people to really go lately? Afrm they had earnings. You said running Afrm is not running at all. It looks like it's dying in fact.

GLD How's gold doing gold? Got smacked. went sideways. getting smacked again. Gold's been on a pretty big push so it's not the most insane thing that it's taking a little bit of a breather now.

All right, All right, hang on, Is the bot doing anything? Not yet? Not yet. The intraday bot is what I'm referring to. The intraday bot? The intraday bot. The intraday bot.

Oh, we are waiting. Patience, patience, patience. I Wouldn't be surprised if this gets completely cracked. It's been a good push to the upside, but if the Spy gets smacked below 409, this might just have been an ultimate bull trap.

especially heading into the CPI report. I Cannot stress enough how much uncertainty there is right now in the market because of the CPI report. So just be be prepared for weird whip saw and movement as I alluded to early this morning. I'm still like, mentally, be prepared for that just because things are going right now.

It would be awesome if it's this easy of a day and if it just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing. but I just don't think so. I Mean at 11AM So in less than an hour and 55 minutes, we get the New York fed uh, inflation expectations one year and five year and then past that I Think there's just going to be a lot of awkwardness. A lot of awkwardness coming into that.

CPI report This is the second sport in the 22-223 citizen that has been dictated by referees and not by the players. This was not holding, uh, change and shifted the entire game f every sport F Sport spending and F the industry that was from train wreck who apparently just got oh shoot, what's his name Aiden Ross to sign up for a kick so some big movements over there that holding charge. It was just against the spirit of the game because he like had his hand on his back but he did not restrict the receiver from running and even if he was nowhere near him that was overthrown by 10 yards. Usain Bolt wasn't going to catch that at all like Usain Bolt you could have had him in his sprinting Prime was not going to catch that ball.

it's so stupid he I don't know I Don't think he was an eligible receiver. The player admitted that he was holding post-game They're not allowed to talk shit on the Reps You realize that right? They are not like if they do, they get in trouble. He's not going to sit there and be like the rest. Fuck this up for us.

They're literally n